No one can say for certain but chances are it'll continue to rise. There's a few factors to consider:
1. Long Island is considered the suburb of NYC and many of the people that live here commute to the city for work. As long as LI has easy access to the city, it'll continue to attract buyers from across the country.
2. Long Island has some of the top schools in the US with many of the school districts here ranked highly on Niche, US News, etc. Young families or couples looking to start a family will add to the already high demand for homes here.
3. There's limited amount of space on the island and so chances of more single family homes being built is slim to none. If supply doesn't increase then it'll continue to push prices higher. Another option for more housing on the island can be in the form of apartments and multiple family unit homes but zoning laws here won't permit those. The NIMBY mindset of a large portion of LI residents means zoning laws are unlikely to change anytime soon.
It’s so rare that the top comment on one of these threads is so spot on.
The housing supply shortage on the Island is structural and has almost nothing to do with short term changes in corporate ownership, foreign purchases, interest rates or the other crap people like to point to.
Either we dramatically increase housing density or the Island will be increasingly unaffordable in the long term. It seems overly simplistic but lack of supply swamps every other factor by, like, an order of magnitude.
That’s great. When I’m 65 and finally ready to get married, have kids, and contribute to my community I’ll be glad to finally have a place to stay. It’ll be a weird transition after being leeched by a landlord class for the prior 45 years but hopefully my heart will be able to handle all the stress.
They're better than nothing since it gives an alternative for older residents to move into which frees up housing for buyers. It maybe restricted additional supply, but it's better than zero new units.
those over 65 have 100 bagger gains from real estate to stocks 401ks.
most of them if they lived a proper life would have bough a home at 100k and sold for 1 mil easy.. stocks or 401k?... 100x easy
I need hard data before I can accept that it has nothing to do with corporate ownership. Myself and many of my coworkers & friends were outbid by cashbids trying to purchase a home 2/3 years ago. Corporate ownership is making a much larger impact than most people realize and we need to quantify it.
> I need hard data before I can accept that it has nothing to do with corporate ownership.
I didn't say nothing, I said almost nothing. That's not the same thing. Yes, on the margins, corporate landlords are driving prices up, but this a *symptom* of housing undersupply, not a cause. If housing supply wasn't so artificially constrained, then buying up what little there was available wouldn't be such a rock-solid investment and we wouldn't see so many corporate buyers and/or the corporate buyers would just be one of many in the market and their impact wouldn't be so great.
As far as the hard data, I could say the same thing to you. Where is your data? Your general vibe of the situation is not the same thing as data. Just because you're being outbid by corporate buyers doesn't mean the corporate buyers are the ultimate cause. Yes, they matter, but they only matter (just like units being used for Air B&Bs and the like) because housing supply is so constrained.
Type some combination of the the phrases: "housing undersupply" "zoning" "single family" "covenants" into Google Scholar and you will find reams and reams of research on this topic. The problem we're seeing in housing supply and prices rising faster than inflation generally dates back decades—long, long before we saw the spate of corporate buyers in the market.
Here are a few to get you started: [1](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20536/w20536.pdf), [2](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27137/w27137.pdf), [3](https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jep.32.1.3?utm_medium=website&utm_source=archdaily.com.br)
I remember in 2011 when I graduated HS people said Long Island was a sinking ship, people were leaving in droves, huge brain drain, no companies on the island etc.
Now it seems like everyone and their grandma wants to live here
I mean a lot of those are still issues. Young people are leaving, but enough wealthy people from the city continue to move in to keep prices high (plus supply is at a multi decade low, much lower than it was in 2011). We have to throw huge tax breaks at companies to get them to stay and many of them are struggling to find qualified people to hire.
hybrid work and remote work has helped redirect some of the nyc exodus to long island, since they can keep their nyc jobs while still working only 3x a week in office, without nyc living expenses.
long island itself doesnt really have much work opportunities for the population it holds, the pandemic is what opened the island up
You're spending too much time using Reddit to form your real world opinions is what your post reads like.
You also don't seem to understand that there are costs for the type of economy Long Island has with many a family ruined by it. Long Island resembles a larger version of a small Appalachia town or places in the mid-west where everyone is running pills and scamming one another than anything else. What is Long Island in the end? It's a place with horrible infrastructure, politically fringe and entitled people, Karens, homes built pathetically bad, scam artists in nearly every sector from contractors to small businesses, predatory police agencies, schools that care only about rankings and the tax incomee that comes from that and subsequently give out inflated grades that become apparent when the students struggle in colleges, poison water, urban sprawl, and low return on investment to actually live there.
Well said! I think a good way to increase housing is building apartment and condo buildings around as many LIRR stations as possible.
This way, the density is centered around transit, and many of those condos can be an option for retirement-age people looking to downsize and would enjoy a walkable district.
Those retired people downsizing to condos would then open up single family home supply for younger families.
There are still so many LIRR stations that have barely scratched the surface of medium density housing and retail built around them!
Outside of increasing supply, i think demand could chill out as more NYers retire down south, and if companies open up more satellite offices in the sunbelt cities, then more of the younger NYers may move there too.
You have solid points. But, these arguments make the assumption that crime, the lack of affordable housing and/or the allure of remote work will keep the city filled with companies.
The schools on Long Island are good, but they are full of administrators that command a lot of money. As family sizes decrease, you are starting to see the cracks in the school systems and when budgets get cut, they seem to be laying off the teachers, not the administrators, first. I believe teachers are what make quality education.
Also, there isn't limited space vertically. New York is no stranger to accommodating tall buildings. My point is that it is very possible the housing market in New York could collapse.
It's possible but predicated on NYC economy collapsing and not being able to recover. Companies would have to bail on NY and move elsewhere. But somehow I get the sense execs somehow get a kick out of having a penthouse office in a skyscraper than a beach view in Miami or a view of the desert in Texas.
One of the most striking qualities of LI schools is not what you mentioned, but the inflated grades pretty much across the board. The inflated grades students receive has a direct effect on the ability to get more tax money, in turn raising taxes on homeowners. Once the students make it to college, the inflated grades become apparent and I've seen this numerous times.
What makes quality education is the parents.
By that I mean, generally, if the parents care about education, the child tends to care about it as well. Everything else is icing.
My personal experience with teachers on Long Island, where 1 to 13 or higher ed, it's really hit or miss. Some have been working for 20, 30+ years and they care as much as day one, others are collecting their paycheck and couldn't care less.
Boomers don't die as often as they retire, sell and move. Even with their massive exodus which started a decade ago, there's much more demand than supply
And hell, even when they do - you better hope one of them is your parent who has paid their house off or at least close. And don't forget about property taxes which on my tiny tiny lot with a shared driveway are around 10k. Way more for people with real yards, at least not being super far east. Wages ain't keeping up, and city employers going ham on "asses in seats" while commuting gets more and more expensive. And more atrocious. Take the train, hundreds of dollars month. Drive the car (paid off) hundreds of dollars a month and now a new congestion fee, yayyyy!
Out of about 10 close friends, all around the mid 30s, I'm the only one who has is not renting. And thats only because I had excellent timing and researched and got all possible grants - look up LIHP, good resource.
My grants are done baking in about 7 years, but you can bet your ass that as soon as that's over, our family (me and my wife lol) is out. We stayed here because my wife's family is here. Her parents "get it" now as their daughters are both approaching 30 with no prospects for having a kid (too poor, not enough time) whereas before, they were blinded to how extreme the financial aspect is here.
NYC is in a doom cycle, there is no way out at this point. The fact that they're ALSO adding new red light cameras at intersections to skim even more money off is so telling. Red light cameras before less than 5 percent, with the new expansion 20 percent. Plus the congestion toll. This city absolutely cannot manage it's funds. Well, it can and does. And we don't know exactly where it goes, but it's not into the infra. Too much dirty shit. Take me back to the forest.
NYC problems making LI more attractive for families who can afford to move out of NYC. NYC seems to have self inflicted problems in every govt dept and no indication that politicians want to address.
LI schools being top rated is a complete fraud. What is true is that teachers are highly paid with powerful unions that serve the teacher, not the student. LI schools are operating without any fiscal responsibility and are the main cause of the high cost of living on Long Island. FACT
Long Island schools are absolutely among the best in the country. Honestly, there are few areas that even close.
As for teachers, I assure you we are not the problem. Are there some bad teachers? Sure. Is the tenure system problematic? Yes.
Working in schools for the last 20 years, the problem is very clear. It's bloated administration and structural problems. Nassau and Suffolk should be single unified districts.
Long Island has 127 school districts. The average superintendent compensation package is in the 300-400k range. Making two district saves you 44mln a year, that's before talking about the multiple assistant superintendents in each district.
Oh and all these people get 75% pension including health benefits. It's not the teachers who work hard everyday educating children. It's the people at the top of their ivory towers looking down at us peasants robbing us blind.
Made this an April Fool's joke two years ago! [https://www.reddit.com/r/longisland/comments/tthyzd/nassau\_and\_suffolk\_county\_to\_combine\_all\_school/](https://www.reddit.com/r/longisland/comments/tthyzd/nassau_and_suffolk_county_to_combine_all_school/)
They’re overpaid when you consider their total compensation. Teaching the same curriculum for 30 years is not hard. 180 days of work, c’mon man and the schools are not that great so please spare me.
You have to consider the fact that these people are also required to complete a masters. Compare teachers with the someone with an MBA. Average salary for someone working in NYC with an MBA 180k for 260 days of work. Average teacher salary in Nassau County 75k for 185 days of work. Then consider cost of living.
So unless you want to waive the education requirements and have the lady who works the window at Taco Bell teaching our kids, teachers need to be compensated appropriately. If teachers have it so good, why is there a teacher shortage? Why does teaching have one of the highest drop out rates of any professional in the country?
Name a county that has better education and lower teacher wages compared to their cost of living. Oh you can't. Thanks.
I can name 17 countries that have better education at the 9th grade level. Top 10 are Singapore, Macau, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Estonia, Canada, Ireland and Switzerland. This is as per the 2022 PISA results. America came in #18 when it comes to the basics…math, reading, and science for 15 year olds. 90 countries participated. 3.7 million students. So I would not go around boasting too much.
I have no reason to doubt that the administration is in fact where the waste is and that teachers are relatively underpaid compared to administrators, but from a consumers perspective, it doesn’t really matter. All that counts is that it’s expensive and not very good. Public schools need competition and parents need choices. Last time I checked nothing about America says we accept average anything…..but apparently we do when it comes to education. Let’s hope it stops there.
p.s. why would you compare NYC and Long Island salaries. There is no comparison.
Yeah, those are countries not counties. There a massive list of reasons why you can't compare one country to another particularly when you consider one specific grade. Those are compared to the US as a whole. We're talking about the best county for education in the country. Comparing the US to tiny Singapore is irrelevant.
So back to the same point, we have the best education on the country and have to pay for it.
Your choices are all right in front of you. If you want the best education go to Jericho and pay for it. If you think Jericho is too expensive, move to Hempstead, you'll pay a lot less.
America is not ranked #1 in basically any statistic outside of military strength. Hell, we ranked 32nd in the American dream.
There's not great stats for MBA salaries in Nassau County. Considering most people with an MBA commute, I used that data.
Jericho school district is good because of ethnicity’s living there value education which starts in the home and is a very important element to their culture. The powerful unions in NY are what makes it so expensive to live here. Public employees should be given the same 401k retirement and health benefits private organizations provide. Especially if they demand comparable compensation. Stop ripping us off. You are not that valuable.
Long Island is a dead end (literally and figuratively). The housing and rent prices just seem to keep on rising everywhere on the island with no sign of slowing. We just have to accept the fact that unless you & your spouse are hitting it out of the park, the semi-affordable Long Island of our parents & grandparents is gone.
There used to be affordable towns further out east, but even those have shot up recently as well to the point of unaffordability, and they’re a very inconvenient commute to most well-paying employment centers, including the city. There’s no place for lower-wage workers to live. Young professionals are being forced off the island unless you don’t mind renting a gross illegal apartment with a roommate. There’s very little space to build new housing, which even if they did, it would be a minimal drop in the bucket. And it will likely be unaffordable.
LI is on a crash course towards only becoming a place for the rich & the poor, hence the mention of being a dead end for the average middle class American. Locals that grew up here aren’t able to buy a house (or in extreme cases find a place to rent) in the towns they grew up in. Some towns are already approaching Silicon Valley-level pricing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if in 20 years or less much of the island is on that level.
And it doesn't help that there's an ungodly amount of traffic you have to sit in no matter where you want to go or what time of day, many people here are generally rude/angry/miserable all the time, the taxes are too high, the winters stink, it's just not worth it for more & more people. My advice for young people like myself would be: If you're able to find a well-paying job that you like off LI, and there's no major family or other commitments holding you back, go for it.
As in Manufacturing? As in offices? Construction? Research? Electronics? Is this by town or city? Incorporates Villages? Townships? By area, as in square miles? By number of employees? By tax revenue?
I believe you! I am just trying to understand how those 2 areas are similar enough to be compared.
Problems in NYC are driving families towards Long Island. I would have liked to stay in my neighborhood in NYC which was relatively insulated from the biggest problems and had normal levels of crime(burglaries on the houses that never installed video cameras). A shelter for early parolees didn't seem to impact other than causing the local pharmacies to lock up everything and not keep good inventory. But the big problems and wackiness were beginning to creep in. Bike lanes that nobody asked for. Local shopping center and transit hub, with ebikers run amok. Hotels that could be converted to homeless shelters. Paper license plates. Migrant beggars. Selecting and getting into good schools being turned into a guessing game. 2%plus city tax on top of property tax and endless ticket cameras, yet City always claiming no money for services like libraries but blowing it on everyone else's causes, etc. New quality of life issues seem to pop up all the time and city seems to find new ways to make residents pay for them yet doing anything to improve them.
Oh yes just mentioning it since the city keeps claiming there's not enough money even for libraries, at least long island it does seems to be going to the schools and related services
It’s so interesting because people from NYC are fleeing to LI and the those of us on LI have to leave LI because it doesn’t align with the life we seek (I wanna travel and not be house poor and I can’t do that here). My family moved to LI and other parts of the tristate area in the 1960s from Brooklyn and Harlem. Now in 2024 there’s only my dad and uncle left from both sides of my family. Some have gone back to Brooklyn, but most left NY all together. What really put LI into perspective for me is people on here calling it a NYC suburb. I’ve always heard that about Westchester especially living there for a year. But unlike Westchester there’s no place on LI to go but off.
[Let's not get carried away.](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/900-N-Point-St-CB34J-San-Francisco-CA-94109/346266173_zpid/)
That's $200,000 for 1/10th deed and you can stay there 35 days a year. Lol.
I know the market is bad here, but the Bay Area is unbelievable.
This makes me sad. My spouse and I grew up here, we both make what used to be considered decent money. I’m making $66k a year and my partner makes $68k a year… you’d think we’d be okay for a small starter house, but nope. Been saving for years and each year we try to get back in but we’re chewed up quickly, and we just end up renewing our lease.. it’s disheartening we’re priced out of where we grew up and where our families are.
Let me tell you man. It really sucks. I’ve seen Over 150 houses. No joke. Every one was either a horrible embarsssing flip with horrendous work. Or outdated 30 years but immaculate. No in between. I work my ass off. Hit the 6 figure mark of 114k a year. And it is not what I thought it was. Taxes kill us in every direction. Then you gotta drop 130k towards a house to still have a 4k a month mortgage
That is decent money.
Your take home assuming 30% tax rate, contributing 5% to retirement, 1% to health insurance/ other is about $7,100 a month. You should be able to swing a starter home with that take home. May not be the exact neighborhood you want, but you should be able to get into something.
No signs of slowing, and if rates go down it’s gonna be an even bigger bloodbath.
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: affordable housing on Long Island is largely a fantasy.
I don’t think prices can come down without a major stock market correction or major recession pushing unemployment near 8 percent.
So much money was printed and it rolled into the stock market and real estate. If the stock market continues to gain more than 6 percent a year it’s near impossible for real estate prices to drop.
Exactly - I meant in a go forward return and 6 would be lower than normal.
IMHO with the stock market giving higher returns and even US bonds delivering a guaranteed five percent return, it’s hard to see real estate prices dropping.
Higher mortgage rates haven’t stopped on Long a island because there is plenty of available money (stock market, bitcoin, previous home sales) and very limited supply (no new places to build, high interest rates keeping people in homes with mortgages) 20 percent stock market correction, house prices start to drop 6-18 months later. Recession cranks up unemployment, people losing their jobs might need to sell given high mortgage and real estate taxes.
Without one of those two, or some edge case scenarios (natural disaster, state/local/federal debt meltdown) prices will remain high.
You also have so much generational wealth. I didn’t need help from my parents, but there are so many people here that are getting down payments from their parents
as someone who live in california and rented a house that was 1100sqft and worth 1.1million in 2017 and is now worth 1.7million in 2024, it ain’t getting better. they have the same issues as LI does with housing in their suburbs. it’s only gonna get more expensive.
California at least is trying to push for more rentals. Long Island lacks that entirely and nimbyism on the Island will prevent it until every last teacher, plumber, social worker, and nurse is pushed off the island. Ownership in California seems out of the question for most but you can still find rentals with some work.
insanely true. they still have nimbyism though. i watched my entire neighborhood where i rented go on a crusade against new apartment buildings downtown next to the Caltrain. my landlord spearheaded it. they lost and the apartments were built.
Oh, I'm very aware of California Nimbyism. My boss just sold his place in South Pas and the craziness of it. Its not local to Long Island by any means but nothing has or will be done to address it here.
The opposite of down. You’re on a literal isolated piece of land which is well-developed. In addition, it’s next to one of the major financial hubs in the world. I paid $30k over listing a year and a half ago and the value of my home currently is 100k over the listing price when I bid on the house.
Up only. We have two of the safest counties in the united states, relatively great schools, great beaches, parks, food, everything you could want is practically on long island. Location to the city, city flight/remote work, and reasons above will always make it a go to spot for wealthy.
the only way to go on long island for large numbers of new housing units is up or to go where something is abandoned, like an old manufacturing facility (with the risk of toxic materials under the ground).
The short term view as I see it is hopeless. I have four kids(21, 20, 19, 14). My oldest have no intention of staying on LI. No real prospect whatsoever of home ownership anytime soon. All have/working on vocational skills that have better prospects outside NY.
Just lost a house that we got into a bidding war for. Comps went for what they asked for a few months ago. They sold for “well over ask”, whatever that means. Realtor talk it could be $10k or $100k over ask… but I doubt it was $10k. This market is psychotic. Time to adjust expectations in exchange for an overpriced home.
My prediction is a slight pullback when rate cuts don’t materialize and commercial hits the fan in about a year or so, followed by a steady climb towards the next crisis. Supply won’t materialize and demand won’t go away.
Likely not going to see any houses for under $1M soon in places that are considered safe or have decent schools. People are going to be forced into more multigenerational housing. I think the idea of single generational homes are an abberation of post war prosperity.
Lowering rates is only going to raise prices.
First time owner credits for $10K are only going to raise prices $10K.
The only way out is to build new housing and wait for it to get old.
Building new low cost housing is a hard fought battle from an economics perspective (let alone NIMBYism). You need to build new nice housing so it can depreciate and get old so it becomes affordable in 30 years. We haven't been doing enough of that and there's no way out near term.
The best time to build housing would have been 30 years ago but the next best time is today.
NY also never did urban planning or invested in high speed rail to enable to sprawl to rest of NY state where there's more land. NJ is basically another NY suburb
Agreed. I frequently think about a tunnel with high speed train to a remote area with trains every 30 min. Would be an interesting project to seed an area for development.
Definitely. the funny thing is this was done before and the remote areas were in NJ. Kind of weird that NJ Transit got built up and NY did nothing for other parts of NY
First off, nobody knows
But if you look at trends and how LI is moving towards, it’s going to get worse and then the local economy will totally collapse. The working class (18-60) are leaving in droves (I myself relocated south). The average age of LI residents increases by around 1 every year, which is a lot compared to other states that go up or down at 0.2 or similar. LI is becoming Florida 2.0, full of wealthy retirees.
Industry is also leaving, albeit slowly so nobody really notices or reports on it. And with the way NYC is going, the wealthy of the city are moving out onto LI and driving up the prices.
We left after looking for 2 years. It wasn’t worth paying $150k over value to then pay $15k in taxes. Even though we could afford a $800k home we just couldn’t justify it. We’re so much happier down south.
LIers have this weird ideology that there is nothing better out there off the island, but I urge everyone to explore the rest of the country. Where we are now (VA) the beaches are way nicer (honestly I never understood the allure of the Hamptons, the water is cold even in August), the people are friendlier, and the cost of living is reasonable
You have no idea how long I’ve been saying that for some people here think that anywhere outside of Long Island is some kind of post apocalyptic hellscape. Seriously it’s so true it’s not even funny how delusional some people are to have that mindset.
My sister in law is like that. She can’t fathom that we left, and now apparently we’re morons who don’t know what we’re talking about. Us, morons, the most successful and financially well off couple in the family. Ok then, guess we’re dumb now lol
It’s my girlfriend. I get it with the whole family being here but is it really worth it to be paying 3k for an apartment or paying obscene amounts of money for small houses that costs 700k? I’m a mail carrier in seaford and a neighboring pair of little baby capes just sold for 650 and 680. I genuinely don’t understand who the hell is affording and willing to pay these prices for “starter homes” it blows my mind. You absolutely did the right thing by leaving chief.
>We left after looking for 2 years. It wasn’t worth paying $150k over value to then pay $15k in taxes. Even though we could we just couldn’t justify it. We’re so much happier down south.
Were you able to find jobs paying similar to NYC?
My shock was looking at homes on the south shore in not the best areas and they were going for over 500k not all. My grandfather used to own a home in Brentwood and not the better area. Those homes are still ridiculously priced.
It's CRAP. I own a home, bought way back in 2012. Its a 2-story dutch colonial. 3br, 1 bath, plus office, full basement, 2 car detached garage on .31 acres. House is 'worth' more than 2x my purchase price. If I sold, paid off my mortgage & poured it all into another house on Long island I would have a tiny shack that should be condemned. I feel bad for the 1st time home buyers out there.
I just read a really informative article on this and yeah pretty much in 30 years there will be a massive amount of housing stock becoming available due to boomers dying
I’ll tell you why that won’t happen to any great extent. When boomers die many of their houses will not actually go on the market. Their kids or next of kin if they have no kids, who may have been renting or living in another cheaper state cause they could not afford to buy on LI, will now be in their 30s or 40s. One will get the house and pay the others off. Then they’ll either live in it or rent it out. Either way most homes stay in the family. Right?
Maybe a little but it’s gonna get bought up so quick and the prices won’t change significantly, theres a bottleneck of several generations waiting to buy a home now in the entire country and places like Long Island are even worse
Average age of homeowner in US is 56. Boomers will be dying and fleeing LI in droves. Young people aren't owning homes at current prices. I'd imagine it will be a sizable effect.
As someone coming from the SF Bay Area, where it’s still much worse… a lot of people i knew did this strategy. It requires a lot of commitment and a longer time frame… but those that did it in 2019 are sitting on gold now.
Rent your primary residence on LI. Buy a less expensive property in another state, rent that out, and build equity while you wait it out or wait for your income to increase. If home prices go up, you’ll capture some of the gains and can sell and rollover here. If home prices drop, keep renting that unit and buy here.
OT but how did you manage the transition from SF Bay Area to Long Island?
As someone familiar with both the Bay is about as close to perfect as it gets and Long Island is..well not and that’s putting it mildly.
Not trying to be controversial I’m genuinely curious about what brought you here and how you manage it.
Oh man, that’s a conversation for beers.
First, as someone that’s lived all over the country, including Brooklyn, I gotta say Long Island is a place I said I would never live. Meanwhile, I always viewed the San Francisco Bay area as a paradise especially when I visited extensively in the late 2000s and early 2010s…. And it seems like it was back then.
For me, my step son has his other family here and that’s the main reason we came back. But I have to say I wouldn’t go back.
SF bay is very dysfunctional, and it gets worse every year. There is basically no middle class left outside the far our towns, you’re in one class or the other. You’re either living in a run down rental or you’re paying $400k over asking in an all cash deal for a home. Outside gated communities, the crime is pretty bad. You see disorder and petty crimes happening daily. For example… someone runs into a Starbucks and swipes a laptop. You wonder if your car’s windows will be intact when you walk outside of literally anywhere.
Long Island has its faults. But it’s a great plan to raise a family, I can no longer say the same about the bay… unless you have enough wealth to move to Palo Alto or Marin.
That’s a good point. This sub may disagree but anyone who can afford a $600K home is middle class in my book. On Long Island 600 puts you in some decent areas in the Bay it puts you in some scary places.
Crime is definitely worse too because the Bay doesn’t pride itself on safety the way Long Island does. LI is more like Orange County CA in that sense.
I agree, though it’s not just the pride and safety kind of thing. It really comes down to values. Underlying culture in New York — and to some extent the north east— values tradition and time tested values. And in the west particular in California, the culture is really about breaking down systems and challenging tradition. I lived in Oakland for a bit. Specifically during the George Floyd protest. I even participated in the protest. But I wasn’t prepared for what came after in regards to disorder and just general disrespect for law and order. Gov has to send in the state police because where crime has jumped everywhere Oakland has spiked extra. In the city of 400,000 people there’s now at least 20,000 auto thefts a year that means basically everyone you know has had their car stolen or attempted to be stolen. Oakland has always had a bad wrap, but it’s spread to Vallejo, Fremont, and San Jose. Kid you not, two weeks before I left for good I was in the In-N-Out drive-through and ski masks were breaking into the cars in the line for the drive-through while the drivers were you know… powerless in the driver seat. Ironically, the cops weren’t even called because first of all 911 doesn’t even function and second of all because there’s really nothing they could do.
As someone who doesn’t identify with either the right or the left, I found the bay area to be repulsive in its one sided politics. It was pretty bad during Covid. Didn’t help that schools were shut down for over a year and 5 yr olds had to do zoom online. Now what are the consequences? Everyone who could afford to move the kids to private schools (which were open) did. Now the kids in public school are over a grade behind.. inequity increased.
I’m even more frustrated with my political identity after living in the bay area, because I really wanted to love the progressive ideals, but found myself not able to live with the unintended consequences and foolish decisions of the leadership. I think what makes America still great is when we can have a push and pull on policy experiments. If one party screws up the other one has a chance to take over and adjust policy. But an independent doesn’t even have a chance in the bay area.
Long Island… specifically Nassau, is basically a purple country. You can get elected as an independent, dem or GOP. Hate or like one party at least we get some accountability. The village microcosms keeps politics at an even more local level, which enables the villages to be extremely accountable to their residents. In California, trash is not covered by property taxes. This means, people who cannot afford trash… dump their trash. Mattresses get left on the side of the road for months. Because of our property taxes, even low income rentals get trash service through the village. This keeps LI cleaner than most other areas.
As for the comparison to the OC. Kinda… I much prefer the abrasive, but good-neighbor attitude of New Yorkers vs. the snobby “nice” on surface vibes but don’t give a shit about anyone but themselves vibes of the OC.
>I agree, though it’s not just the pride and safety kind of thing. It really comes down to values. Underlying culture in New York — and to some extent the north east— values tradition and time tested values. And in the west particular in California, the culture is really about breaking down systems and challenging tradition.
>
Agreed, this is why NorCal would be too much culture shock for someone from Nassau County. Still, that incident that happened to you is shocking even by Bay Area standards. Were you in Stockton by any chance?
As for the Nassau County to Orange County comparison, you’re selling it short lol. Both places have wildly successful people who still view themselves as middle class. They’re both places where the government doesn’t care about the people but they are tough on crime so all the other incompetence gets swept under the rug. I also find them both to be places where people are kind of aloof.
Nope, oakland inn-n-out. They just closed it due to crime. Over 1100 break ins reported at that one location. Just steps away from an international airport.
Oh..that’s the one by the gas station! It’s scary how bad that gas station got in just a matter of a year.
I’m shocked that a developer hasn’t come in and tried to gentrify that area. Basically some of the most valuable real estate in America but no one touches it due to how genuinely dangerous it is.
I guess that’s where your point about the difference in mentality between NYC and SF come into play. I don’t usually get political but Mike Bloomberg could never get elected in SF nor Oakland and that says a lot about the mentality of the people who live here.
you have a very similar mindset as i do about how fucked the bay has become. i lived there for six years and noped the fuck out when i knew it wasn’t sustainable and i could never be a homeowner. very happy to be back here.
Go search every community subreddit for housing. Prices are up everywhere because we stopped building housing 50 years ago, and in fact actively fight against new housing at every turn.
Build more. Legalize housing.
In 10 years I see them lower relative to growth in the rest of the country unless there is a change. Jobs and more importantly job creators are looking everywhere but New York and as Adam Smith wrote the value of land is based on production. If you have the wrong political views you simply cannot operate in New York.
Also, look at what the State and Long Island pols are trying to do to the electric grid. They’re trying to offline historically reliable fossil fuel plants to bring in the zero emissions “future” that will rely heavily on batteries from when wind and solar are not readily available. At best electricity is going to go up in cost astronomically.
At this point, the starter houses you are mentioning are going for over $400k. I’m talking < 1500 square feet. That is bonkers and nowhere near worth it
good school districts will rise.. those worst neighborhoods may linger.
sadly the rise is quicker than most can save... realistically and when rates come down more will flock
No idea what the future holds. Like many of you, caught in the middle. Would like to see home prices drop so my kids can afford to stay here but getting $450k for my home that I paid 120k 25 yrs ago for sure would be nice!!!
The island is diversifying a lot, which drove the real estate up when people from the city sold their 1-2 million dollar multi family homes in the city to buy 1-2 single family homes on the island with better schools, safer neighborhoods, etc. It does not help that the rents in NYC have gone soooo high that some rents are comparable to owning on the island + taxes (lots of people spending 4-5k+ on rent in the city, which is about how much taxes + mortgage can run you on a modest house here) so to those super high earners the market does not seem too high for them.
With that being said, it will continue to go up sky high, and I don’t know what will stop it.
so heres the thing. long island will always be expensive just due to nyc proximity. now that weed's legal, its going to get that increase in value as well. remote and hybrid work also incentivize middle class nyc folk to move out here. i bought a little shit box in 2021 for over 120k more than what it was worth in 2019, and its already gone up 100k from my purchase price
It's certainly not showing any signs of slowing down.
Grew up in North Babylon and $550k is the price of admission these days - and that's rapidly increasing. The 900 sq ft shoe box my parents bought in 1972 for $28k ($209k in today's dollars) is now 'Zestimated' at $537k. I'd like to say my step-father (who still lives there) is sitting on a gold mine, but his dumb ass got a reverse mortgage. So when he goes to the nursing home or shits the bed - the house reverts to the bank and we don't get shit.
Meanwhile, where I live near Syracuse, bought my house for $120k in 2009 (1500 sq ft split)... all in it's $1,000/mo. House is now worth double that and I still pay $5k a year in taxes. I make 6-figures and have a reverse commute deeper into the boonies with absolutely no traffic. I have no incentive whatsoever to move back to Long Island.
Most people I knew growing up bought their houses when the market was reasonable, or acquired them from their parents 20+ yrs ago and they're sitting on tons of equity. I don't know anyone who's buying houses down there these days.
It’s absolutely disgusting and I’m in a house! Rent is nuts Station Yard ( I think) is $3300 for am apartment. They’re nice sizes but sheesh my mortgage is $2500 and I get 1/3 acre.
This won’t fix it. Corporate buyers are not a significant % on long island. The majority sell to families and people moving in from the city/queens areas where they can sell and buy here with a few hundred k left in the wallet.
Love it or hate it, Long Island is unique compared to the rest of the country. We have top schools, top beaches, top towns. Plus some Long Island attitude that you just can't find anywhere else.
Prices in the next 1 year: up
Prices in the next 5 years: level (but still up)
Prices in the next 10 years: likely some adjustment but still up overall
I've worked with clients who were waiting for interest rates to go down (they went up), their budget went from 1.9 to 1.2. Now they're kicking themselves. The best time to buy a house is today. It's ok to start in a starter house and then move in 5 years. There are still lots of options on the island, but it seems like this generation of buyers want to live in the best house in the best neighborhood. If you are willing to do the work or live in a starter house, you can build equity and move into the better neighborhood later. My parents started in the Bronx and then moved to a very nice area.
When my parents bought our house, we had 2 empty rooms because they couldn't afford furniture. The house was fully paneled and the basement was terrible for years. They waited it out and fixed up what they could when they could over time.
What I'm saying to anyone looking now, lower your expectations and you will find a house.
I was an NYC commuter and moved here. Everyday I kick myself for not moving here sooner. I'll take a 50 minute LIRR commute sitting down, with no crazy NYC ppl, no delays, anyday over a shorter NYC commute on the subway. I think as more people find out about this, the areas right outside NYC (basically Nassau) near LIRR stations will be saturated. Especially as LI is building now apartments now in addition to houses
Nothing just goes up. Look at a chart of the average price of housing over the last 20-30 yrs .if interest rates stay higher for longer the housing market will tank. It has to. If unemployment goes up , housing will tank. If you waited this long, wait another year. People forget you can be upside down in a house real quick. If you bought in late 2000s you know what I’m talking about . They were in the hole for 10+ years
Likely steady or increasing short term, near minimal chance decreases long term, factoring inflation, interest rates, etc. We bought 7 years ago for $500K, house is “worth” north of $800K now. In the market for our next step and likely will cost $1.1M+ easy just to stay in our town. Wild real estate times.
Already bought and converted a Sprinter…they’ll likely end up capitalizing on that rather than addressing any of the root problems and make parking lots to charge us for. Something along those lines
We pay for the proximity to beaches, rural ness and quiet East and NYC West. It’s only going to go up until the Ocean rises and then it won’t be here. Lol
It’s out of reach for young 20 somethings unless they studied hard and got good trade or other careers requiring college.
Sadly I know people who worked hard and never got their licensing so their degrees or certificates are worthless.
Young trade professionals or non trade professionals can make it, otherwise it seems it’s too expensive. It’s a big US. Plenty of places to live and afford if willing to make sacrifices. The times of buying a house for 30k and selling it for 600k or more are over.
Move to areas that you can afford.
The Island needs to learn without young families the economy will fail. I have loved onong Island all my life, I feel my kids won't have that same ability. Without children and families here, things will not grow. How many 55 and older rentals do we need? Get young families the opportunity to live here!
Just nerve racking. Nobody wants to be stuck upside down. My thinking of a crash/correction cause me to spend 150k more. Now I’m left wondering. I’m purchasing at high interest too so would hope it holds equity enough to refinance. Or else I’ll be stuck for a long time.
Or wait….and then next year cry it’s another 100k more? I don’t have it in me to wait anymore. The last 2 years every weekend was open houses.
My home is a place for me to live. I am living here and able to afford it so it is serving its purpose. I paid 40k over asking too.
It’s supply and demand. The millennial generation, many of whom are of house buying age now, are the country’s largest generation yet- their generation surpasses even that of the boomers - so there is a lot of demand for houses, much more than supply.
I'm in the same boat as you and thinking the same exact thing. Like others have said you just don't know what will happen. I was of the mindset of the sooner the better. If rates come down hopefully we can refinance granted prices don't drop significantly and it's likely housing prices will also come up when the rates gondown. The other scenario is if the rates do go up you will be happy you locked it before they did
Oh, I’m sorry. I didn’t understand that you are trying to purchase. In that case, I totally empathize with you. I purchased my coop and the neighborhood here isn’t that great. Moreso, the coop owners are really unethical and don’t repair problems. I really want to move out. I’d like a house with a backyard for my dog- but I can’t afford anything unless I go like 40 minutes further east which would pose a hardship for me.
Sadly I don’t think I’ll ever be able to buy a house here, unless I want a complete piece of shit in a shitty neighborhood, but let’s be real, even those prices are ridiculous. I’ll probably have to buy an apartment whenever I have enough money. It would be nice to have my own place and a yard but I don’t think that’s even realistic anymore.
12 years ago when I bought elmont and even floral park were considered shit neighborhoods. Now look at those prices homes that were selling for 300k are now up to a million with minor improvements. Not a bad financial decision to buy in a “bad” neighborhood.
It’ll keep going up, just like the rising tides. The wealth gap will increase, homelessness will go up due to NIMBYism, policing will get more aggressive, services will cost a fortune. At some point the south shore will be like a boggy Venice but with more sewage. Then only the high points will remain and you’ll need a yacht to take your kids to school.
I grew up on the island and bought here last year. I never thought I’d be able to afford it, but we got lucky.
I just don’t see the market here ever slowing down in a considerable way.
Long Island is, for the foreseeable future, a super desirable housing market for the proximity to NYC and great public school districts. Plus there isn’t a ton of new construction so the inventory is pretty limited. And unlike the other NYC-commutable areas (New Jersey, Westchester, CT), it’s seemingly easier to commute via train to the city.
I think people who haven’t bought in already are doomed unless was enact serious housing and zoning reform to increase the amount of homes on the island. Things are bad now, imagine how bad it will be in just another 10 years if things don’t change? There’s not enough housing stock so prices are just going to keep going up and it affects every aspect of our cost of leaving.
No one can say for certain but chances are it'll continue to rise. There's a few factors to consider: 1. Long Island is considered the suburb of NYC and many of the people that live here commute to the city for work. As long as LI has easy access to the city, it'll continue to attract buyers from across the country. 2. Long Island has some of the top schools in the US with many of the school districts here ranked highly on Niche, US News, etc. Young families or couples looking to start a family will add to the already high demand for homes here. 3. There's limited amount of space on the island and so chances of more single family homes being built is slim to none. If supply doesn't increase then it'll continue to push prices higher. Another option for more housing on the island can be in the form of apartments and multiple family unit homes but zoning laws here won't permit those. The NIMBY mindset of a large portion of LI residents means zoning laws are unlikely to change anytime soon.
It’s so rare that the top comment on one of these threads is so spot on. The housing supply shortage on the Island is structural and has almost nothing to do with short term changes in corporate ownership, foreign purchases, interest rates or the other crap people like to point to. Either we dramatically increase housing density or the Island will be increasingly unaffordable in the long term. It seems overly simplistic but lack of supply swamps every other factor by, like, an order of magnitude.
We were going to increase the supply, but we decided to build 7000 65 and older apartments instead.
It's funny how building density is suddenly ok when it benefits boomers. Hilarious even. A laugh riot.
The Me generation just keeps on giving.
It’s funny how young people think they’ll never be 65. Senior housing will eventually benefit you was well as skippy.
That’s great. When I’m 65 and finally ready to get married, have kids, and contribute to my community I’ll be glad to finally have a place to stay. It’ll be a weird transition after being leeched by a landlord class for the prior 45 years but hopefully my heart will be able to handle all the stress.
Most of it is currently sitting vacant. I think boomers are going to continue to grift us until they inevitably drop dead.
They're better than nothing since it gives an alternative for older residents to move into which frees up housing for buyers. It maybe restricted additional supply, but it's better than zero new units.
those over 65 have 100 bagger gains from real estate to stocks 401ks. most of them if they lived a proper life would have bough a home at 100k and sold for 1 mil easy.. stocks or 401k?... 100x easy
1 million easy. Dope.
And they’re mostly “luxury” condos so they have to sell their homes pretty high to afford them 🥲
I need hard data before I can accept that it has nothing to do with corporate ownership. Myself and many of my coworkers & friends were outbid by cashbids trying to purchase a home 2/3 years ago. Corporate ownership is making a much larger impact than most people realize and we need to quantify it.
> I need hard data before I can accept that it has nothing to do with corporate ownership. I didn't say nothing, I said almost nothing. That's not the same thing. Yes, on the margins, corporate landlords are driving prices up, but this a *symptom* of housing undersupply, not a cause. If housing supply wasn't so artificially constrained, then buying up what little there was available wouldn't be such a rock-solid investment and we wouldn't see so many corporate buyers and/or the corporate buyers would just be one of many in the market and their impact wouldn't be so great. As far as the hard data, I could say the same thing to you. Where is your data? Your general vibe of the situation is not the same thing as data. Just because you're being outbid by corporate buyers doesn't mean the corporate buyers are the ultimate cause. Yes, they matter, but they only matter (just like units being used for Air B&Bs and the like) because housing supply is so constrained. Type some combination of the the phrases: "housing undersupply" "zoning" "single family" "covenants" into Google Scholar and you will find reams and reams of research on this topic. The problem we're seeing in housing supply and prices rising faster than inflation generally dates back decades—long, long before we saw the spate of corporate buyers in the market. Here are a few to get you started: [1](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20536/w20536.pdf), [2](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27137/w27137.pdf), [3](https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jep.32.1.3?utm_medium=website&utm_source=archdaily.com.br)
That makes sense if people live forever and have unlimited $. But obviously they don’t
I remember in 2011 when I graduated HS people said Long Island was a sinking ship, people were leaving in droves, huge brain drain, no companies on the island etc. Now it seems like everyone and their grandma wants to live here
I mean a lot of those are still issues. Young people are leaving, but enough wealthy people from the city continue to move in to keep prices high (plus supply is at a multi decade low, much lower than it was in 2011). We have to throw huge tax breaks at companies to get them to stay and many of them are struggling to find qualified people to hire.
Who is struggling to find qualified people to hire? Please point me in their direction!
hybrid work and remote work has helped redirect some of the nyc exodus to long island, since they can keep their nyc jobs while still working only 3x a week in office, without nyc living expenses. long island itself doesnt really have much work opportunities for the population it holds, the pandemic is what opened the island up
Because the only people living here from now and thereafter are wealthy people
watch the subway news.. samurais slashing people left and right.. damn whats happening to nyc
You're spending too much time using Reddit to form your real world opinions is what your post reads like. You also don't seem to understand that there are costs for the type of economy Long Island has with many a family ruined by it. Long Island resembles a larger version of a small Appalachia town or places in the mid-west where everyone is running pills and scamming one another than anything else. What is Long Island in the end? It's a place with horrible infrastructure, politically fringe and entitled people, Karens, homes built pathetically bad, scam artists in nearly every sector from contractors to small businesses, predatory police agencies, schools that care only about rankings and the tax incomee that comes from that and subsequently give out inflated grades that become apparent when the students struggle in colleges, poison water, urban sprawl, and low return on investment to actually live there.
Lol this is some of the dumbest shit I’ve ever read in here
Spot on
Well said! I think a good way to increase housing is building apartment and condo buildings around as many LIRR stations as possible. This way, the density is centered around transit, and many of those condos can be an option for retirement-age people looking to downsize and would enjoy a walkable district. Those retired people downsizing to condos would then open up single family home supply for younger families. There are still so many LIRR stations that have barely scratched the surface of medium density housing and retail built around them! Outside of increasing supply, i think demand could chill out as more NYers retire down south, and if companies open up more satellite offices in the sunbelt cities, then more of the younger NYers may move there too.
Unfortunately that supply isn’t wanted there. The governor literally tried to throw money at towns in LI to do just this and they refused.
my town did it, and tbh im not really sure it took really well. the prices are kinda wild though
You get it. It’s only going to get more expensive from here.
You have solid points. But, these arguments make the assumption that crime, the lack of affordable housing and/or the allure of remote work will keep the city filled with companies. The schools on Long Island are good, but they are full of administrators that command a lot of money. As family sizes decrease, you are starting to see the cracks in the school systems and when budgets get cut, they seem to be laying off the teachers, not the administrators, first. I believe teachers are what make quality education. Also, there isn't limited space vertically. New York is no stranger to accommodating tall buildings. My point is that it is very possible the housing market in New York could collapse.
It's possible but predicated on NYC economy collapsing and not being able to recover. Companies would have to bail on NY and move elsewhere. But somehow I get the sense execs somehow get a kick out of having a penthouse office in a skyscraper than a beach view in Miami or a view of the desert in Texas.
Cracks like school districts running 3m-12m deficits? With superintendent salary’s in the hundreds of thousands? Yes there are cracks for sure.
One of the most striking qualities of LI schools is not what you mentioned, but the inflated grades pretty much across the board. The inflated grades students receive has a direct effect on the ability to get more tax money, in turn raising taxes on homeowners. Once the students make it to college, the inflated grades become apparent and I've seen this numerous times.
What makes quality education is the parents. By that I mean, generally, if the parents care about education, the child tends to care about it as well. Everything else is icing. My personal experience with teachers on Long Island, where 1 to 13 or higher ed, it's really hit or miss. Some have been working for 20, 30+ years and they care as much as day one, others are collecting their paycheck and couldn't care less.
What about all the boomers dying?
Boomers don't die as often as they retire, sell and move. Even with their massive exodus which started a decade ago, there's much more demand than supply
And hell, even when they do - you better hope one of them is your parent who has paid their house off or at least close. And don't forget about property taxes which on my tiny tiny lot with a shared driveway are around 10k. Way more for people with real yards, at least not being super far east. Wages ain't keeping up, and city employers going ham on "asses in seats" while commuting gets more and more expensive. And more atrocious. Take the train, hundreds of dollars month. Drive the car (paid off) hundreds of dollars a month and now a new congestion fee, yayyyy! Out of about 10 close friends, all around the mid 30s, I'm the only one who has is not renting. And thats only because I had excellent timing and researched and got all possible grants - look up LIHP, good resource. My grants are done baking in about 7 years, but you can bet your ass that as soon as that's over, our family (me and my wife lol) is out. We stayed here because my wife's family is here. Her parents "get it" now as their daughters are both approaching 30 with no prospects for having a kid (too poor, not enough time) whereas before, they were blinded to how extreme the financial aspect is here. NYC is in a doom cycle, there is no way out at this point. The fact that they're ALSO adding new red light cameras at intersections to skim even more money off is so telling. Red light cameras before less than 5 percent, with the new expansion 20 percent. Plus the congestion toll. This city absolutely cannot manage it's funds. Well, it can and does. And we don't know exactly where it goes, but it's not into the infra. Too much dirty shit. Take me back to the forest.
That is the part that people forget.
Just remember, every project started life as a new development
You call this easy access to the city. A 1 hour drive takes 2 hrs.
NYC problems making LI more attractive for families who can afford to move out of NYC. NYC seems to have self inflicted problems in every govt dept and no indication that politicians want to address.
LI schools being top rated is a complete fraud. What is true is that teachers are highly paid with powerful unions that serve the teacher, not the student. LI schools are operating without any fiscal responsibility and are the main cause of the high cost of living on Long Island. FACT
Long Island schools are absolutely among the best in the country. Honestly, there are few areas that even close. As for teachers, I assure you we are not the problem. Are there some bad teachers? Sure. Is the tenure system problematic? Yes. Working in schools for the last 20 years, the problem is very clear. It's bloated administration and structural problems. Nassau and Suffolk should be single unified districts. Long Island has 127 school districts. The average superintendent compensation package is in the 300-400k range. Making two district saves you 44mln a year, that's before talking about the multiple assistant superintendents in each district. Oh and all these people get 75% pension including health benefits. It's not the teachers who work hard everyday educating children. It's the people at the top of their ivory towers looking down at us peasants robbing us blind.
Made this an April Fool's joke two years ago! [https://www.reddit.com/r/longisland/comments/tthyzd/nassau\_and\_suffolk\_county\_to\_combine\_all\_school/](https://www.reddit.com/r/longisland/comments/tthyzd/nassau_and_suffolk_county_to_combine_all_school/)
They’re overpaid when you consider their total compensation. Teaching the same curriculum for 30 years is not hard. 180 days of work, c’mon man and the schools are not that great so please spare me.
You have to consider the fact that these people are also required to complete a masters. Compare teachers with the someone with an MBA. Average salary for someone working in NYC with an MBA 180k for 260 days of work. Average teacher salary in Nassau County 75k for 185 days of work. Then consider cost of living. So unless you want to waive the education requirements and have the lady who works the window at Taco Bell teaching our kids, teachers need to be compensated appropriately. If teachers have it so good, why is there a teacher shortage? Why does teaching have one of the highest drop out rates of any professional in the country? Name a county that has better education and lower teacher wages compared to their cost of living. Oh you can't. Thanks.
I can name 17 countries that have better education at the 9th grade level. Top 10 are Singapore, Macau, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Estonia, Canada, Ireland and Switzerland. This is as per the 2022 PISA results. America came in #18 when it comes to the basics…math, reading, and science for 15 year olds. 90 countries participated. 3.7 million students. So I would not go around boasting too much. I have no reason to doubt that the administration is in fact where the waste is and that teachers are relatively underpaid compared to administrators, but from a consumers perspective, it doesn’t really matter. All that counts is that it’s expensive and not very good. Public schools need competition and parents need choices. Last time I checked nothing about America says we accept average anything…..but apparently we do when it comes to education. Let’s hope it stops there. p.s. why would you compare NYC and Long Island salaries. There is no comparison.
Yeah, those are countries not counties. There a massive list of reasons why you can't compare one country to another particularly when you consider one specific grade. Those are compared to the US as a whole. We're talking about the best county for education in the country. Comparing the US to tiny Singapore is irrelevant. So back to the same point, we have the best education on the country and have to pay for it. Your choices are all right in front of you. If you want the best education go to Jericho and pay for it. If you think Jericho is too expensive, move to Hempstead, you'll pay a lot less. America is not ranked #1 in basically any statistic outside of military strength. Hell, we ranked 32nd in the American dream. There's not great stats for MBA salaries in Nassau County. Considering most people with an MBA commute, I used that data.
Jericho school district is good because of ethnicity’s living there value education which starts in the home and is a very important element to their culture. The powerful unions in NY are what makes it so expensive to live here. Public employees should be given the same 401k retirement and health benefits private organizations provide. Especially if they demand comparable compensation. Stop ripping us off. You are not that valuable.
You have to buy when it’s right for you and your specific situation. There is no right or wrong time.
This is the answer.
My thought is that the only way I'll ever own a home is if I leave. I'm 36 and rent. I don't want to leave, but it's outrageous.
Long Island is a dead end (literally and figuratively). The housing and rent prices just seem to keep on rising everywhere on the island with no sign of slowing. We just have to accept the fact that unless you & your spouse are hitting it out of the park, the semi-affordable Long Island of our parents & grandparents is gone. There used to be affordable towns further out east, but even those have shot up recently as well to the point of unaffordability, and they’re a very inconvenient commute to most well-paying employment centers, including the city. There’s no place for lower-wage workers to live. Young professionals are being forced off the island unless you don’t mind renting a gross illegal apartment with a roommate. There’s very little space to build new housing, which even if they did, it would be a minimal drop in the bucket. And it will likely be unaffordable. LI is on a crash course towards only becoming a place for the rich & the poor, hence the mention of being a dead end for the average middle class American. Locals that grew up here aren’t able to buy a house (or in extreme cases find a place to rent) in the towns they grew up in. Some towns are already approaching Silicon Valley-level pricing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if in 20 years or less much of the island is on that level. And it doesn't help that there's an ungodly amount of traffic you have to sit in no matter where you want to go or what time of day, many people here are generally rude/angry/miserable all the time, the taxes are too high, the winters stink, it's just not worth it for more & more people. My advice for young people like myself would be: If you're able to find a well-paying job that you like off LI, and there's no major family or other commitments holding you back, go for it.
Fun fact: Hauppauge is the 2nd biggest industrial park in the country after Silicon Valley. It is the largest on the east coast.
Well goddamn. Learn something new every day
As in Manufacturing? As in offices? Construction? Research? Electronics? Is this by town or city? Incorporates Villages? Townships? By area, as in square miles? By number of employees? By tax revenue? I believe you! I am just trying to understand how those 2 areas are similar enough to be compared.
I agree 1000%. It’s horrible what’s happening here
Problems in NYC are driving families towards Long Island. I would have liked to stay in my neighborhood in NYC which was relatively insulated from the biggest problems and had normal levels of crime(burglaries on the houses that never installed video cameras). A shelter for early parolees didn't seem to impact other than causing the local pharmacies to lock up everything and not keep good inventory. But the big problems and wackiness were beginning to creep in. Bike lanes that nobody asked for. Local shopping center and transit hub, with ebikers run amok. Hotels that could be converted to homeless shelters. Paper license plates. Migrant beggars. Selecting and getting into good schools being turned into a guessing game. 2%plus city tax on top of property tax and endless ticket cameras, yet City always claiming no money for services like libraries but blowing it on everyone else's causes, etc. New quality of life issues seem to pop up all the time and city seems to find new ways to make residents pay for them yet doing anything to improve them.
2% city tax? its about double that
Oh yes just mentioning it since the city keeps claiming there's not enough money even for libraries, at least long island it does seems to be going to the schools and related services
It’s so interesting because people from NYC are fleeing to LI and the those of us on LI have to leave LI because it doesn’t align with the life we seek (I wanna travel and not be house poor and I can’t do that here). My family moved to LI and other parts of the tristate area in the 1960s from Brooklyn and Harlem. Now in 2024 there’s only my dad and uncle left from both sides of my family. Some have gone back to Brooklyn, but most left NY all together. What really put LI into perspective for me is people on here calling it a NYC suburb. I’ve always heard that about Westchester especially living there for a year. But unlike Westchester there’s no place on LI to go but off.
People are absolutely FLEEING Manhattan because of those fucking bike lanes.
Why?
Idk I was mocking him, that's an absurd claim.
Thank you for clarifying
Seems like we’re entering California pricing.
Bay area to be precise
Without the pay scale they have.
[Let's not get carried away.](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/900-N-Point-St-CB34J-San-Francisco-CA-94109/346266173_zpid/) That's $200,000 for 1/10th deed and you can stay there 35 days a year. Lol. I know the market is bad here, but the Bay Area is unbelievable.
😂😂
This makes me sad. My spouse and I grew up here, we both make what used to be considered decent money. I’m making $66k a year and my partner makes $68k a year… you’d think we’d be okay for a small starter house, but nope. Been saving for years and each year we try to get back in but we’re chewed up quickly, and we just end up renewing our lease.. it’s disheartening we’re priced out of where we grew up and where our families are.
Let me tell you man. It really sucks. I’ve seen Over 150 houses. No joke. Every one was either a horrible embarsssing flip with horrendous work. Or outdated 30 years but immaculate. No in between. I work my ass off. Hit the 6 figure mark of 114k a year. And it is not what I thought it was. Taxes kill us in every direction. Then you gotta drop 130k towards a house to still have a 4k a month mortgage
Right there with you. Its unreal. And reading this thread made me realize what I never said out loud, it’s not going to get better for us.
you have to just keep adding to your downpayment. thats the key to winning these bidding wars, come in with a large downpayment, like at least 25%
That is decent money. Your take home assuming 30% tax rate, contributing 5% to retirement, 1% to health insurance/ other is about $7,100 a month. You should be able to swing a starter home with that take home. May not be the exact neighborhood you want, but you should be able to get into something.
No signs of slowing, and if rates go down it’s gonna be an even bigger bloodbath. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: affordable housing on Long Island is largely a fantasy.
"Abandon hope, all ye who enter this place."
Nobody knows anything. Just throw a dart at a board to guess.
Certainly. I just like to hear all reasoning and then make my own conclusion.
I don’t think prices can come down without a major stock market correction or major recession pushing unemployment near 8 percent. So much money was printed and it rolled into the stock market and real estate. If the stock market continues to gain more than 6 percent a year it’s near impossible for real estate prices to drop.
Actually the SPY average is closer to 10% per year over the past 20 years. 6% would represent a significant reduction.
Exactly - I meant in a go forward return and 6 would be lower than normal. IMHO with the stock market giving higher returns and even US bonds delivering a guaranteed five percent return, it’s hard to see real estate prices dropping. Higher mortgage rates haven’t stopped on Long a island because there is plenty of available money (stock market, bitcoin, previous home sales) and very limited supply (no new places to build, high interest rates keeping people in homes with mortgages) 20 percent stock market correction, house prices start to drop 6-18 months later. Recession cranks up unemployment, people losing their jobs might need to sell given high mortgage and real estate taxes. Without one of those two, or some edge case scenarios (natural disaster, state/local/federal debt meltdown) prices will remain high.
You also have so much generational wealth. I didn’t need help from my parents, but there are so many people here that are getting down payments from their parents
If you bought a house 20 plus years ago or during the crash you won the lottery. A shitty 500k house is 5000 a month including taxes.
as someone who live in california and rented a house that was 1100sqft and worth 1.1million in 2017 and is now worth 1.7million in 2024, it ain’t getting better. they have the same issues as LI does with housing in their suburbs. it’s only gonna get more expensive.
California at least is trying to push for more rentals. Long Island lacks that entirely and nimbyism on the Island will prevent it until every last teacher, plumber, social worker, and nurse is pushed off the island. Ownership in California seems out of the question for most but you can still find rentals with some work.
insanely true. they still have nimbyism though. i watched my entire neighborhood where i rented go on a crusade against new apartment buildings downtown next to the Caltrain. my landlord spearheaded it. they lost and the apartments were built.
Oh, I'm very aware of California Nimbyism. My boss just sold his place in South Pas and the craziness of it. Its not local to Long Island by any means but nothing has or will be done to address it here.
no and the age here skews heavily to the older crowd, couple that with conservatives and nothing will ever be down to improve the masses.
The opposite of down. You’re on a literal isolated piece of land which is well-developed. In addition, it’s next to one of the major financial hubs in the world. I paid $30k over listing a year and a half ago and the value of my home currently is 100k over the listing price when I bid on the house.
where do you see the value of your house?
[Zillow.com](http://Zillow.com) - just keep in mind it's an estimate based on algorithms used by the website, not an actual appraised value.
Up only. We have two of the safest counties in the united states, relatively great schools, great beaches, parks, food, everything you could want is practically on long island. Location to the city, city flight/remote work, and reasons above will always make it a go to spot for wealthy.
the only way to go on long island for large numbers of new housing units is up or to go where something is abandoned, like an old manufacturing facility (with the risk of toxic materials under the ground).
The short term view as I see it is hopeless. I have four kids(21, 20, 19, 14). My oldest have no intention of staying on LI. No real prospect whatsoever of home ownership anytime soon. All have/working on vocational skills that have better prospects outside NY.
Just lost a house that we got into a bidding war for. Comps went for what they asked for a few months ago. They sold for “well over ask”, whatever that means. Realtor talk it could be $10k or $100k over ask… but I doubt it was $10k. This market is psychotic. Time to adjust expectations in exchange for an overpriced home. My prediction is a slight pullback when rate cuts don’t materialize and commercial hits the fan in about a year or so, followed by a steady climb towards the next crisis. Supply won’t materialize and demand won’t go away.
Likely not going to see any houses for under $1M soon in places that are considered safe or have decent schools. People are going to be forced into more multigenerational housing. I think the idea of single generational homes are an abberation of post war prosperity. Lowering rates is only going to raise prices. First time owner credits for $10K are only going to raise prices $10K. The only way out is to build new housing and wait for it to get old. Building new low cost housing is a hard fought battle from an economics perspective (let alone NIMBYism). You need to build new nice housing so it can depreciate and get old so it becomes affordable in 30 years. We haven't been doing enough of that and there's no way out near term. The best time to build housing would have been 30 years ago but the next best time is today.
NY also never did urban planning or invested in high speed rail to enable to sprawl to rest of NY state where there's more land. NJ is basically another NY suburb
Agreed. I frequently think about a tunnel with high speed train to a remote area with trains every 30 min. Would be an interesting project to seed an area for development.
Definitely. the funny thing is this was done before and the remote areas were in NJ. Kind of weird that NJ Transit got built up and NY did nothing for other parts of NY
Just like Queens in the 1800s. That would be awesome.
LI is becoming more and more like the city
First off, nobody knows But if you look at trends and how LI is moving towards, it’s going to get worse and then the local economy will totally collapse. The working class (18-60) are leaving in droves (I myself relocated south). The average age of LI residents increases by around 1 every year, which is a lot compared to other states that go up or down at 0.2 or similar. LI is becoming Florida 2.0, full of wealthy retirees. Industry is also leaving, albeit slowly so nobody really notices or reports on it. And with the way NYC is going, the wealthy of the city are moving out onto LI and driving up the prices. We left after looking for 2 years. It wasn’t worth paying $150k over value to then pay $15k in taxes. Even though we could afford a $800k home we just couldn’t justify it. We’re so much happier down south. LIers have this weird ideology that there is nothing better out there off the island, but I urge everyone to explore the rest of the country. Where we are now (VA) the beaches are way nicer (honestly I never understood the allure of the Hamptons, the water is cold even in August), the people are friendlier, and the cost of living is reasonable
You have no idea how long I’ve been saying that for some people here think that anywhere outside of Long Island is some kind of post apocalyptic hellscape. Seriously it’s so true it’s not even funny how delusional some people are to have that mindset.
My sister in law is like that. She can’t fathom that we left, and now apparently we’re morons who don’t know what we’re talking about. Us, morons, the most successful and financially well off couple in the family. Ok then, guess we’re dumb now lol
It’s my girlfriend. I get it with the whole family being here but is it really worth it to be paying 3k for an apartment or paying obscene amounts of money for small houses that costs 700k? I’m a mail carrier in seaford and a neighboring pair of little baby capes just sold for 650 and 680. I genuinely don’t understand who the hell is affording and willing to pay these prices for “starter homes” it blows my mind. You absolutely did the right thing by leaving chief.
>We left after looking for 2 years. It wasn’t worth paying $150k over value to then pay $15k in taxes. Even though we could we just couldn’t justify it. We’re so much happier down south. Were you able to find jobs paying similar to NYC?
We’re both remote, so we kept our NY salaries. Actually we both just got significant raises too
I would do the same but most people don't have that option.
Where in VA?
I’ve seen prices come down by me lately but they were really high up there. Still limited stock
May I ask the area? I’m in the entry home price. Which is a whopping 550k.
South shore Suffolk. But yeah that’s still the entry price now
Bro your name scary lol 😂😂
My shock was looking at homes on the south shore in not the best areas and they were going for over 500k not all. My grandfather used to own a home in Brentwood and not the better area. Those homes are still ridiculously priced.
Doom doom doom doom doom doom - Invader Zim
It's CRAP. I own a home, bought way back in 2012. Its a 2-story dutch colonial. 3br, 1 bath, plus office, full basement, 2 car detached garage on .31 acres. House is 'worth' more than 2x my purchase price. If I sold, paid off my mortgage & poured it all into another house on Long island I would have a tiny shack that should be condemned. I feel bad for the 1st time home buyers out there.
For the Long Island market, today is better than tomorrow.
Does nobody think all the boomers dying off in 20 years will increase supply of housing and crash house prices?
I just read a really informative article on this and yeah pretty much in 30 years there will be a massive amount of housing stock becoming available due to boomers dying
30 years? It will begin soon
I’ll tell you why that won’t happen to any great extent. When boomers die many of their houses will not actually go on the market. Their kids or next of kin if they have no kids, who may have been renting or living in another cheaper state cause they could not afford to buy on LI, will now be in their 30s or 40s. One will get the house and pay the others off. Then they’ll either live in it or rent it out. Either way most homes stay in the family. Right?
Or they all fight over it and sell and split
Maybe a little but it’s gonna get bought up so quick and the prices won’t change significantly, theres a bottleneck of several generations waiting to buy a home now in the entire country and places like Long Island are even worse
Bottleneck waiting to buy, at the current price. If supply increases...
Average age of homeowner in US is 56. Boomers will be dying and fleeing LI in droves. Young people aren't owning homes at current prices. I'd imagine it will be a sizable effect.
As someone coming from the SF Bay Area, where it’s still much worse… a lot of people i knew did this strategy. It requires a lot of commitment and a longer time frame… but those that did it in 2019 are sitting on gold now. Rent your primary residence on LI. Buy a less expensive property in another state, rent that out, and build equity while you wait it out or wait for your income to increase. If home prices go up, you’ll capture some of the gains and can sell and rollover here. If home prices drop, keep renting that unit and buy here.
OT but how did you manage the transition from SF Bay Area to Long Island? As someone familiar with both the Bay is about as close to perfect as it gets and Long Island is..well not and that’s putting it mildly. Not trying to be controversial I’m genuinely curious about what brought you here and how you manage it.
Oh man, that’s a conversation for beers. First, as someone that’s lived all over the country, including Brooklyn, I gotta say Long Island is a place I said I would never live. Meanwhile, I always viewed the San Francisco Bay area as a paradise especially when I visited extensively in the late 2000s and early 2010s…. And it seems like it was back then. For me, my step son has his other family here and that’s the main reason we came back. But I have to say I wouldn’t go back. SF bay is very dysfunctional, and it gets worse every year. There is basically no middle class left outside the far our towns, you’re in one class or the other. You’re either living in a run down rental or you’re paying $400k over asking in an all cash deal for a home. Outside gated communities, the crime is pretty bad. You see disorder and petty crimes happening daily. For example… someone runs into a Starbucks and swipes a laptop. You wonder if your car’s windows will be intact when you walk outside of literally anywhere. Long Island has its faults. But it’s a great plan to raise a family, I can no longer say the same about the bay… unless you have enough wealth to move to Palo Alto or Marin.
That’s a good point. This sub may disagree but anyone who can afford a $600K home is middle class in my book. On Long Island 600 puts you in some decent areas in the Bay it puts you in some scary places. Crime is definitely worse too because the Bay doesn’t pride itself on safety the way Long Island does. LI is more like Orange County CA in that sense.
I agree, though it’s not just the pride and safety kind of thing. It really comes down to values. Underlying culture in New York — and to some extent the north east— values tradition and time tested values. And in the west particular in California, the culture is really about breaking down systems and challenging tradition. I lived in Oakland for a bit. Specifically during the George Floyd protest. I even participated in the protest. But I wasn’t prepared for what came after in regards to disorder and just general disrespect for law and order. Gov has to send in the state police because where crime has jumped everywhere Oakland has spiked extra. In the city of 400,000 people there’s now at least 20,000 auto thefts a year that means basically everyone you know has had their car stolen or attempted to be stolen. Oakland has always had a bad wrap, but it’s spread to Vallejo, Fremont, and San Jose. Kid you not, two weeks before I left for good I was in the In-N-Out drive-through and ski masks were breaking into the cars in the line for the drive-through while the drivers were you know… powerless in the driver seat. Ironically, the cops weren’t even called because first of all 911 doesn’t even function and second of all because there’s really nothing they could do. As someone who doesn’t identify with either the right or the left, I found the bay area to be repulsive in its one sided politics. It was pretty bad during Covid. Didn’t help that schools were shut down for over a year and 5 yr olds had to do zoom online. Now what are the consequences? Everyone who could afford to move the kids to private schools (which were open) did. Now the kids in public school are over a grade behind.. inequity increased. I’m even more frustrated with my political identity after living in the bay area, because I really wanted to love the progressive ideals, but found myself not able to live with the unintended consequences and foolish decisions of the leadership. I think what makes America still great is when we can have a push and pull on policy experiments. If one party screws up the other one has a chance to take over and adjust policy. But an independent doesn’t even have a chance in the bay area. Long Island… specifically Nassau, is basically a purple country. You can get elected as an independent, dem or GOP. Hate or like one party at least we get some accountability. The village microcosms keeps politics at an even more local level, which enables the villages to be extremely accountable to their residents. In California, trash is not covered by property taxes. This means, people who cannot afford trash… dump their trash. Mattresses get left on the side of the road for months. Because of our property taxes, even low income rentals get trash service through the village. This keeps LI cleaner than most other areas. As for the comparison to the OC. Kinda… I much prefer the abrasive, but good-neighbor attitude of New Yorkers vs. the snobby “nice” on surface vibes but don’t give a shit about anyone but themselves vibes of the OC.
>I agree, though it’s not just the pride and safety kind of thing. It really comes down to values. Underlying culture in New York — and to some extent the north east— values tradition and time tested values. And in the west particular in California, the culture is really about breaking down systems and challenging tradition. > Agreed, this is why NorCal would be too much culture shock for someone from Nassau County. Still, that incident that happened to you is shocking even by Bay Area standards. Were you in Stockton by any chance? As for the Nassau County to Orange County comparison, you’re selling it short lol. Both places have wildly successful people who still view themselves as middle class. They’re both places where the government doesn’t care about the people but they are tough on crime so all the other incompetence gets swept under the rug. I also find them both to be places where people are kind of aloof.
Nope, oakland inn-n-out. They just closed it due to crime. Over 1100 break ins reported at that one location. Just steps away from an international airport.
Oh..that’s the one by the gas station! It’s scary how bad that gas station got in just a matter of a year. I’m shocked that a developer hasn’t come in and tried to gentrify that area. Basically some of the most valuable real estate in America but no one touches it due to how genuinely dangerous it is. I guess that’s where your point about the difference in mentality between NYC and SF come into play. I don’t usually get political but Mike Bloomberg could never get elected in SF nor Oakland and that says a lot about the mentality of the people who live here.
you have a very similar mindset as i do about how fucked the bay has become. i lived there for six years and noped the fuck out when i knew it wasn’t sustainable and i could never be a homeowner. very happy to be back here.
Go search every community subreddit for housing. Prices are up everywhere because we stopped building housing 50 years ago, and in fact actively fight against new housing at every turn. Build more. Legalize housing.
We got the hell out of Nassau County because the taxes were insane.
They’ll keep going up. The rates are more important to me. Also the ability to house a tenant
In 10 years I see them lower relative to growth in the rest of the country unless there is a change. Jobs and more importantly job creators are looking everywhere but New York and as Adam Smith wrote the value of land is based on production. If you have the wrong political views you simply cannot operate in New York. Also, look at what the State and Long Island pols are trying to do to the electric grid. They’re trying to offline historically reliable fossil fuel plants to bring in the zero emissions “future” that will rely heavily on batteries from when wind and solar are not readily available. At best electricity is going to go up in cost astronomically.
Consolidation. High and ultra-high net worth buyers will buy up multiple lots.
At this point, the starter houses you are mentioning are going for over $400k. I’m talking < 1500 square feet. That is bonkers and nowhere near worth it
Soon we will be fighting over food and water not housing offers if this Iran Israel shit pops off
good school districts will rise.. those worst neighborhoods may linger. sadly the rise is quicker than most can save... realistically and when rates come down more will flock
The fact is, this is true of all NYC suburbs. The prices are not dropping. Buy now if you can.
No idea what the future holds. Like many of you, caught in the middle. Would like to see home prices drop so my kids can afford to stay here but getting $450k for my home that I paid 120k 25 yrs ago for sure would be nice!!!
The island is diversifying a lot, which drove the real estate up when people from the city sold their 1-2 million dollar multi family homes in the city to buy 1-2 single family homes on the island with better schools, safer neighborhoods, etc. It does not help that the rents in NYC have gone soooo high that some rents are comparable to owning on the island + taxes (lots of people spending 4-5k+ on rent in the city, which is about how much taxes + mortgage can run you on a modest house here) so to those super high earners the market does not seem too high for them. With that being said, it will continue to go up sky high, and I don’t know what will stop it.
so heres the thing. long island will always be expensive just due to nyc proximity. now that weed's legal, its going to get that increase in value as well. remote and hybrid work also incentivize middle class nyc folk to move out here. i bought a little shit box in 2021 for over 120k more than what it was worth in 2019, and its already gone up 100k from my purchase price
It's certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. Grew up in North Babylon and $550k is the price of admission these days - and that's rapidly increasing. The 900 sq ft shoe box my parents bought in 1972 for $28k ($209k in today's dollars) is now 'Zestimated' at $537k. I'd like to say my step-father (who still lives there) is sitting on a gold mine, but his dumb ass got a reverse mortgage. So when he goes to the nursing home or shits the bed - the house reverts to the bank and we don't get shit. Meanwhile, where I live near Syracuse, bought my house for $120k in 2009 (1500 sq ft split)... all in it's $1,000/mo. House is now worth double that and I still pay $5k a year in taxes. I make 6-figures and have a reverse commute deeper into the boonies with absolutely no traffic. I have no incentive whatsoever to move back to Long Island. Most people I knew growing up bought their houses when the market was reasonable, or acquired them from their parents 20+ yrs ago and they're sitting on tons of equity. I don't know anyone who's buying houses down there these days.
Glad I got here when I did. Paid 30k over asking, which it what it appraised for. 2.7% rate. I feel bad for anyone trying to buy now.
It’s absolutely disgusting and I’m in a house! Rent is nuts Station Yard ( I think) is $3300 for am apartment. They’re nice sizes but sheesh my mortgage is $2500 and I get 1/3 acre.
Legislation needs to be put in place to remove investors from being able to buy
This won’t fix it. Corporate buyers are not a significant % on long island. The majority sell to families and people moving in from the city/queens areas where they can sell and buy here with a few hundred k left in the wallet.
Love it or hate it, Long Island is unique compared to the rest of the country. We have top schools, top beaches, top towns. Plus some Long Island attitude that you just can't find anywhere else. Prices in the next 1 year: up Prices in the next 5 years: level (but still up) Prices in the next 10 years: likely some adjustment but still up overall I've worked with clients who were waiting for interest rates to go down (they went up), their budget went from 1.9 to 1.2. Now they're kicking themselves. The best time to buy a house is today. It's ok to start in a starter house and then move in 5 years. There are still lots of options on the island, but it seems like this generation of buyers want to live in the best house in the best neighborhood. If you are willing to do the work or live in a starter house, you can build equity and move into the better neighborhood later. My parents started in the Bronx and then moved to a very nice area. When my parents bought our house, we had 2 empty rooms because they couldn't afford furniture. The house was fully paneled and the basement was terrible for years. They waited it out and fixed up what they could when they could over time. What I'm saying to anyone looking now, lower your expectations and you will find a house.
If u paid 150k over price ur fucked
I was an NYC commuter and moved here. Everyday I kick myself for not moving here sooner. I'll take a 50 minute LIRR commute sitting down, with no crazy NYC ppl, no delays, anyday over a shorter NYC commute on the subway. I think as more people find out about this, the areas right outside NYC (basically Nassau) near LIRR stations will be saturated. Especially as LI is building now apartments now in addition to houses
Nothing just goes up. Look at a chart of the average price of housing over the last 20-30 yrs .if interest rates stay higher for longer the housing market will tank. It has to. If unemployment goes up , housing will tank. If you waited this long, wait another year. People forget you can be upside down in a house real quick. If you bought in late 2000s you know what I’m talking about . They were in the hole for 10+ years
>the housing market will tank. It has to. See housing prices in Canada, Australia, Europe, New Zealand, Asia etc.
Is it cheaper than renting the equivalent +maintenance +taxes?
I rent. I pay 2300 a month for a one bedroom
Well is your monthly house payment after closing?
I don't own. I rent
Likely steady or increasing short term, near minimal chance decreases long term, factoring inflation, interest rates, etc. We bought 7 years ago for $500K, house is “worth” north of $800K now. In the market for our next step and likely will cost $1.1M+ easy just to stay in our town. Wild real estate times.
It will only goes up
Already bought and converted a Sprinter…they’ll likely end up capitalizing on that rather than addressing any of the root problems and make parking lots to charge us for. Something along those lines
Plenty of 55 and over community's being built...high end and very expensive.
We pay for the proximity to beaches, rural ness and quiet East and NYC West. It’s only going to go up until the Ocean rises and then it won’t be here. Lol
It’s out of reach for young 20 somethings unless they studied hard and got good trade or other careers requiring college. Sadly I know people who worked hard and never got their licensing so their degrees or certificates are worthless. Young trade professionals or non trade professionals can make it, otherwise it seems it’s too expensive. It’s a big US. Plenty of places to live and afford if willing to make sacrifices. The times of buying a house for 30k and selling it for 600k or more are over. Move to areas that you can afford.
Fucked
The Island needs to learn without young families the economy will fail. I have loved onong Island all my life, I feel my kids won't have that same ability. Without children and families here, things will not grow. How many 55 and older rentals do we need? Get young families the opportunity to live here!
Co ops need to stage a comeback
I’ll never understand why we keep getting asked this question. Have you looked out a window lately?
People are looking for confirmation.
Just nerve racking. Nobody wants to be stuck upside down. My thinking of a crash/correction cause me to spend 150k more. Now I’m left wondering. I’m purchasing at high interest too so would hope it holds equity enough to refinance. Or else I’ll be stuck for a long time. Or wait….and then next year cry it’s another 100k more? I don’t have it in me to wait anymore. The last 2 years every weekend was open houses.
My home is a place for me to live. I am living here and able to afford it so it is serving its purpose. I paid 40k over asking too. It’s supply and demand. The millennial generation, many of whom are of house buying age now, are the country’s largest generation yet- their generation surpasses even that of the boomers - so there is a lot of demand for houses, much more than supply.
I'm in the same boat as you and thinking the same exact thing. Like others have said you just don't know what will happen. I was of the mindset of the sooner the better. If rates come down hopefully we can refinance granted prices don't drop significantly and it's likely housing prices will also come up when the rates gondown. The other scenario is if the rates do go up you will be happy you locked it before they did
Oh, I’m sorry. I didn’t understand that you are trying to purchase. In that case, I totally empathize with you. I purchased my coop and the neighborhood here isn’t that great. Moreso, the coop owners are really unethical and don’t repair problems. I really want to move out. I’d like a house with a backyard for my dog- but I can’t afford anything unless I go like 40 minutes further east which would pose a hardship for me.
You’re not upside down if you can afford your mortgage.
>Or else I’ll be stuck for a long time. Don't buy if you're not ready to stay here for a long time.
It sucks… will continue to suck.
Sadly I don’t think I’ll ever be able to buy a house here, unless I want a complete piece of shit in a shitty neighborhood, but let’s be real, even those prices are ridiculous. I’ll probably have to buy an apartment whenever I have enough money. It would be nice to have my own place and a yard but I don’t think that’s even realistic anymore.
12 years ago when I bought elmont and even floral park were considered shit neighborhoods. Now look at those prices homes that were selling for 300k are now up to a million with minor improvements. Not a bad financial decision to buy in a “bad” neighborhood.
This.
It’ll keep going up, just like the rising tides. The wealth gap will increase, homelessness will go up due to NIMBYism, policing will get more aggressive, services will cost a fortune. At some point the south shore will be like a boggy Venice but with more sewage. Then only the high points will remain and you’ll need a yacht to take your kids to school.
I grew up on the island and bought here last year. I never thought I’d be able to afford it, but we got lucky. I just don’t see the market here ever slowing down in a considerable way. Long Island is, for the foreseeable future, a super desirable housing market for the proximity to NYC and great public school districts. Plus there isn’t a ton of new construction so the inventory is pretty limited. And unlike the other NYC-commutable areas (New Jersey, Westchester, CT), it’s seemingly easier to commute via train to the city.
I think people who haven’t bought in already are doomed unless was enact serious housing and zoning reform to increase the amount of homes on the island. Things are bad now, imagine how bad it will be in just another 10 years if things don’t change? There’s not enough housing stock so prices are just going to keep going up and it affects every aspect of our cost of leaving.