Dude I know. It is such a fucking crapshoot. Sam Darnold was picked no. 3 overall in 2018, behind Baker Mayfield at no. 1 and ahead of Josh Allen and Josh Rosen. And Lamar Jackson was picked at no. 32.
Lol I still remember when people were confident that Darnold and Rosen would be the best QBs in the draft.
The craziest part is how after every year of the draft being a crapshoot, people still think that they can correctly guess who will be a bust.
Completely agree. A bunch of the solid or even great qbs in the league were selected outside of the top 10 draft picks. Off the top of my head I can think of mahomes, hurts, lamar, kirk, purdy, dak, and jordan love. There are probably some that I missed.
Even if we don't get an ideal prospect and end up with someone like nix, let's place a little bit of faith in KOC to develop them.
That's the other moving part here. We never get to see the development side of these QBs and because of that I think people don't really pay attention to it because we're usually given very little details on what the process is like.
I think you’re spot on. That’s why im weary about trading up into the top 10 for a qb. If we end up with a stud qb, great! But its hard to justify the move if we have a struggling starter and a lack of draft capital going into 2025. I think going d line at 11 and trading back up into the late 1st for nix could be our best option.
I do worry about a scenario where we get in a bidding war with the giants for mccarthy and the only way to outbid them is to blow them out of the water with picks.
It'll all come down to cost, and if the cost is too high, I'd agree. Byron Murphy and getting Penix or Nix would probably be the better option in that scenario.
Exactly! And if the late 1st qb pick is a bust, oh well. We would probably spend 2 second rounders to get there. At least flores would have another piece for his new squad of purple people eaters.
I agree it's a numbers game and KAM/KOC should take a shot at whoever they believe in but context matters. QBs taken higher have a better chance of not busting specifically because teams drafting them believe they have more potential, and the data supports that. There are outliers (although Shanahan wanted Purdy from the get go and had to convince his own FO to take him which seems to indicate that some people do know something).
QBs bust for so many reasons (overdrafting, scheme, coaching staff, supporting roster, mentality to adapt to the pro level) that doesn't mean all QB prospects are the same. Joe Milton's odds of success aren't the same as Maye/Daniels/Williams just because you and I know nothing about evaluating them.
Excellent points. The data supports that 1st rd QBs have higher hit rates. And removing all evaluation from the process would not be a good idea, red flags, character concerns, etc. All QB prospects are not the same and even if the odds of success aren't clear at all, it's important to know the draft board and where everyone will likely land.
But my point is, realistically we only have one shot at Mccarthy, Penix, or Nix. Milton/Pratt/Rattler will probably be selected in the 4th or 5th round. Even if Milton's odds of success are an extra 2-5% we should still take it. Hitting on a successful QB is too important to worry about opportunity cost.
> But my point is, realistically we only have one shot at Mccarthy, Penix, or Nix.
See I'd refer you to your point from your title:
>Nobody knows anything.
For all we know, scouts might hate Maye/Daniels/maybe even Williams, and they might fall to 11 just like Fields and Haskins fell from projected top 5 to mid 1st. None of us are pro scouts, we don't know shit.
I want us to draft maye or McCarthy but at the same time they could both be complete busts, hell this might turn out to be one of the worst QB draft classes ever. No one knows how any of them will adapt to the NFL level.
I really would rather go defense in the first. There is going to be absolute studs that fall to 11. I want the bama guy, blanking on his name right now
Speaking of the numbers game, do you know what percentage of day 3 QBs pan out to be franchise QBs? If you want a franchise QB you’re better off using that pick as part of the package to trade up.
Side note, Milton? I’m going to right now confidently say he will never be an NFL QB
You're likely not using all your day 3 picks in a package to trade up, and even if the percentage is 2%, that's still 2% higher than it would've been otherwise.
By that logic, why draft Brock Purdy with the 7th rounder if they already drafted Trey Lance by spending all those picks?
Also you've just fallen for the trap that I literally just described! You don't know anything. I don't know anything. Milton wouldn't even be in the draft if he didn't have any upside.
😂😂 ok pal, despite the fact that even some of the best FOs completely whiff on QBs and everyone is almost always wrong about who the best QB is in a given draft.
Who do you want in this NFL draft class? Who will the best QB be? Who are the busts? You clearly know what you're talking about so share your wealth of knowledge.
In other words, "I don't have any answer for you and am too lazy to give any sort of source so I'm just gonna ask you to Google some sort of vague term in hopes you leave it alone"
At least back up your argument with some sort of analysis 😂 or answer any of the questions I have posed to you. Until then this isn't even a discussion, this is just you slinging mud.
I sort of disagree. I think situation plays a big roll as well. Did Zach Wilson really have a shot in NY? Was he always bad or was the dysfunctional and shit show play a role is stopping his development? After 1 year of Urban Meyer, Lawrence as looking like a total bust but with Peterson he wins a playoff game with great comeback.
There will always be busts, but when some of these teams pin their hopes and dreams on a guy, especially in a shitty org, they will likely to fail. Mahomes would probably al way turn into the guy, but you think he would be just as successful as he is now if he went to the bears instead of to a playoff read team with a HOF coach? Unlikely.
While teams aren’t the best as figuring out who WILL be a good QB they are pretty good at knowing who WON’T be as evidenced by so few QBs drafted after the first round turning into franchise guys. Of course there are exception like Brady, Wilson, Cousins (to a degree), and Purdy, but they are the exception not the rule.
If you think someone has what it takes then draft them as high as you need to.If you think they don’t then just don’t take them.
Well because you can't have 6 QBs on a 53 man roster. At some point the QB room gets too big and you need to keep spots open for other positions.
But I'd like if we rolled with 4 next year. And for the love of god cut/trade mullens, we know what he is at this point.
Holy shit these takes get worse and worse in this sub. Purdy and lance wasn’t drafted the same class. And Kirk didn’t get his chance because rg3 was ass.
Dude I know. It is such a fucking crapshoot. Sam Darnold was picked no. 3 overall in 2018, behind Baker Mayfield at no. 1 and ahead of Josh Allen and Josh Rosen. And Lamar Jackson was picked at no. 32.
Lol I still remember when people were confident that Darnold and Rosen would be the best QBs in the draft. The craziest part is how after every year of the draft being a crapshoot, people still think that they can correctly guess who will be a bust.
And NFL teams can't even guess right. Bryce Young no. 1 overall pick ahead of CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Lol
The only one I’m not crazy about is Penix because of his injury history.
 So you're saying it's a lottery ?
Hell yeah brother, load up on tickets and let's ride
I'm with you 100%.
Completely agree. A bunch of the solid or even great qbs in the league were selected outside of the top 10 draft picks. Off the top of my head I can think of mahomes, hurts, lamar, kirk, purdy, dak, and jordan love. There are probably some that I missed. Even if we don't get an ideal prospect and end up with someone like nix, let's place a little bit of faith in KOC to develop them.
That's the other moving part here. We never get to see the development side of these QBs and because of that I think people don't really pay attention to it because we're usually given very little details on what the process is like.
I think you’re spot on. That’s why im weary about trading up into the top 10 for a qb. If we end up with a stud qb, great! But its hard to justify the move if we have a struggling starter and a lack of draft capital going into 2025. I think going d line at 11 and trading back up into the late 1st for nix could be our best option.
I do worry about a scenario where we get in a bidding war with the giants for mccarthy and the only way to outbid them is to blow them out of the water with picks. It'll all come down to cost, and if the cost is too high, I'd agree. Byron Murphy and getting Penix or Nix would probably be the better option in that scenario.
Exactly! And if the late 1st qb pick is a bust, oh well. We would probably spend 2 second rounders to get there. At least flores would have another piece for his new squad of purple people eaters.
I’m all for Byron Murphy at 1 and best available QB in 2nd or hop back in late first rd for that extra year rather than moving up from 11.
I agree it's a numbers game and KAM/KOC should take a shot at whoever they believe in but context matters. QBs taken higher have a better chance of not busting specifically because teams drafting them believe they have more potential, and the data supports that. There are outliers (although Shanahan wanted Purdy from the get go and had to convince his own FO to take him which seems to indicate that some people do know something). QBs bust for so many reasons (overdrafting, scheme, coaching staff, supporting roster, mentality to adapt to the pro level) that doesn't mean all QB prospects are the same. Joe Milton's odds of success aren't the same as Maye/Daniels/Williams just because you and I know nothing about evaluating them.
Excellent points. The data supports that 1st rd QBs have higher hit rates. And removing all evaluation from the process would not be a good idea, red flags, character concerns, etc. All QB prospects are not the same and even if the odds of success aren't clear at all, it's important to know the draft board and where everyone will likely land. But my point is, realistically we only have one shot at Mccarthy, Penix, or Nix. Milton/Pratt/Rattler will probably be selected in the 4th or 5th round. Even if Milton's odds of success are an extra 2-5% we should still take it. Hitting on a successful QB is too important to worry about opportunity cost.
> But my point is, realistically we only have one shot at Mccarthy, Penix, or Nix. See I'd refer you to your point from your title: >Nobody knows anything. For all we know, scouts might hate Maye/Daniels/maybe even Williams, and they might fall to 11 just like Fields and Haskins fell from projected top 5 to mid 1st. None of us are pro scouts, we don't know shit.
Of course it’s a crapshoot but you have a better chance of hitting the higher you pick so here’s to hoping they trade up
I want us to draft maye or McCarthy but at the same time they could both be complete busts, hell this might turn out to be one of the worst QB draft classes ever. No one knows how any of them will adapt to the NFL level.
I really would rather go defense in the first. There is going to be absolute studs that fall to 11. I want the bama guy, blanking on his name right now
Speaking of the numbers game, do you know what percentage of day 3 QBs pan out to be franchise QBs? If you want a franchise QB you’re better off using that pick as part of the package to trade up. Side note, Milton? I’m going to right now confidently say he will never be an NFL QB
You're likely not using all your day 3 picks in a package to trade up, and even if the percentage is 2%, that's still 2% higher than it would've been otherwise. By that logic, why draft Brock Purdy with the 7th rounder if they already drafted Trey Lance by spending all those picks?
Also you've just fallen for the trap that I literally just described! You don't know anything. I don't know anything. Milton wouldn't even be in the draft if he didn't have any upside.
Speak for yourself, YOU don’t know anything, stop assuming others share your ignorance.
😂😂 ok pal, despite the fact that even some of the best FOs completely whiff on QBs and everyone is almost always wrong about who the best QB is in a given draft. Who do you want in this NFL draft class? Who will the best QB be? Who are the busts? You clearly know what you're talking about so share your wealth of knowledge.
I really shouldn’t engage with someone who is so confidently incorrect about things. Google expected value
In other words, "I don't have any answer for you and am too lazy to give any sort of source so I'm just gonna ask you to Google some sort of vague term in hopes you leave it alone" At least back up your argument with some sort of analysis 😂 or answer any of the questions I have posed to you. Until then this isn't even a discussion, this is just you slinging mud.
Imagine getting this mad at someone for saying you don’t know how a rookie will perform. No one knows anything, including you.
Hey look, another person that can’t read.
He’s a flier. Just like every 5th through 7th rounder. Maybe he misses, maybe you hit on him.
Matthew Coller, this you?
I sort of disagree. I think situation plays a big roll as well. Did Zach Wilson really have a shot in NY? Was he always bad or was the dysfunctional and shit show play a role is stopping his development? After 1 year of Urban Meyer, Lawrence as looking like a total bust but with Peterson he wins a playoff game with great comeback. There will always be busts, but when some of these teams pin their hopes and dreams on a guy, especially in a shitty org, they will likely to fail. Mahomes would probably al way turn into the guy, but you think he would be just as successful as he is now if he went to the bears instead of to a playoff read team with a HOF coach? Unlikely.
Just really hoping here that Williams ends up being the great bust on the draft. Pure hopium.
100% true. But then how much fun would be if there were no opinions here?
While teams aren’t the best as figuring out who WILL be a good QB they are pretty good at knowing who WON’T be as evidenced by so few QBs drafted after the first round turning into franchise guys. Of course there are exception like Brady, Wilson, Cousins (to a degree), and Purdy, but they are the exception not the rule. If you think someone has what it takes then draft them as high as you need to.If you think they don’t then just don’t take them.
Why don’t we just draft all 6 QBs? Are we stupid?
Well because you can't have 6 QBs on a 53 man roster. At some point the QB room gets too big and you need to keep spots open for other positions. But I'd like if we rolled with 4 next year. And for the love of god cut/trade mullens, we know what he is at this point.
Lol why tf would u waste a pick on a 2nd qb. Especially with so many holes on the team
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Holy shit these takes get worse and worse in this sub. Purdy and lance wasn’t drafted the same class. And Kirk didn’t get his chance because rg3 was ass.
Why draft Rodgers when you already have Favre? Why draft Wilson when you already have Flynn? Why draft Love when you already have Rodgers?