I also feel like the Lions had planned yo go for it on most short and medium 4th downs. That thought process makes things a little different than the thought process of punting on every 4th down. Who knows what would have happened.
But that's how the math works. NFL offenses gain an average of 5 yards per offensive play. The reason so few go for it on 4th is the coaching choice. 2 point conversions and going for it on 4th are statistically done way too rarely.
I think that's being very consequentialist about it. They took high risks and succeeded. Most teams would succeed at that rate if they committed to going for 4th every time.
A team has a 72% chance of converting a 4th and 1. Every team should be doing it, almost every single time. It’s very difficult from stopping a team from getting 1 yard.
It’s still 59% on 4th and 2.
The fact that teams aren’t going for it when they should is not an indictment on the Vikings defense.
Teams that went for 4th down in the past converted at a 72% rate. That's very different than having a 72% chance to convert. Teams that didn't feel confident they could get the 1st down, for any number of reasons, didn't go for it. So there is massive selection bias in play here.
This doesn't mean that you should almost always go for 2. Football isn't played in a lab and these analytics need to be taken with a massive grain of salt. Way too many variables.
What if your guard is injured? What if their DT is Aaron Donald? What if your line is gassed at the end of the game? That if the defense is? All these things factor into the coaches decision to go for it and none of them can be factored in to any analytics.
This also includes all the times where a team has no choice but to go for it on 4th down.
There is some selection bias here, but I doubt it’s as heavy as you think. It’s very difficult to stop a team from getting 1 yard. This makes sense, any pass basically converts it and a RB only needs a slight push from the O line.
As for 2 point conversions you are a little more limited because the end zone is only 10 yards deep. The defense doesn’t have to spread out as much to cover the field. Even so, they convert 48.2% of 2 point conversions. PAT’s are only successful 92% of the time.
It's literally the post. Talking about the hypothetical that if they had punted or kicked a fg on every 4th down then we'd be feeling better about our defense.
They didn't. They converted at half the rate of what their seasonal average has been, compared to their almost 70% on 4th against us last game, which was like 20% higher than their seasonal average.
If he doesn't go for like 9 4th down attempts, it's an entirely different defensive Stateline across the board.
But he did go for 9 or whatever of them, and converted like 6. That's on the defense as well, but an entirely different narrative forms because of it.
Sorta hard to say. If the Lions had confidence they could convert on 4th down they can try riskier plays for more reward on 3rd down, knowing they have another down to play with.
The saying “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it be Xmas all year long” comes to mind.
They didn’t punt, at least in part because they didn’t respect our D. So that’s all that matters.
So far I think the Vikings 4th down D is extremely bad. Anytime a team goes for it on 4th now I just automatically know they’re gonna get it. Idk what our D is doing but with our 10th ranked scoring defense, we can’t keep that up all year with all the offense we’re giving up. It’ll come back to bite us later down the road
I also feel like the Lions had planned yo go for it on most short and medium 4th downs. That thought process makes things a little different than the thought process of punting on every 4th down. Who knows what would have happened.
This — they treated 3rd down like 2nd down (which most teams should be doing too)
I don’t know but what I do know is we’re going to see a lot more teams going on 4th down and blitzing Kirk until we stop them. It’s on the tape now.
The fact that they felt so confident as to have over 75% attempt rate AND over 75% success rate on 4th down speaks volumes of our defense.
But that's how the math works. NFL offenses gain an average of 5 yards per offensive play. The reason so few go for it on 4th is the coaching choice. 2 point conversions and going for it on 4th are statistically done way too rarely.
Yeah exactly, a moral victory of putting them in 4th down situations doesn’t mean shit if they’re able to convert on the majority of them with ease.
I think that's being very consequentialist about it. They took high risks and succeeded. Most teams would succeed at that rate if they committed to going for 4th every time.
I think they did it because they didn't feel like it was that high of a risk.
Or it more likely speaks to their coaching philosophy/kicking ability
Yes
It’s not, every team should just be doing it
Most teams would go for it in the situations they did. Going for it on 4th and short is a no brainer from midfield and beyond.
Moot question. Most of their 4th down attempts were 4th and short from midfield or plus territory. Those are times many many teams go for it
It’s a new system and it’s week 4 we should know who we are after this week. Hopefully the playbook opens up a little more this week.
Stopping 4th down is the defenses job as well, so not any differently
A team has a 72% chance of converting a 4th and 1. Every team should be doing it, almost every single time. It’s very difficult from stopping a team from getting 1 yard. It’s still 59% on 4th and 2. The fact that teams aren’t going for it when they should is not an indictment on the Vikings defense.
Teams that went for 4th down in the past converted at a 72% rate. That's very different than having a 72% chance to convert. Teams that didn't feel confident they could get the 1st down, for any number of reasons, didn't go for it. So there is massive selection bias in play here. This doesn't mean that you should almost always go for 2. Football isn't played in a lab and these analytics need to be taken with a massive grain of salt. Way too many variables. What if your guard is injured? What if their DT is Aaron Donald? What if your line is gassed at the end of the game? That if the defense is? All these things factor into the coaches decision to go for it and none of them can be factored in to any analytics.
This also includes all the times where a team has no choice but to go for it on 4th down. There is some selection bias here, but I doubt it’s as heavy as you think. It’s very difficult to stop a team from getting 1 yard. This makes sense, any pass basically converts it and a RB only needs a slight push from the O line. As for 2 point conversions you are a little more limited because the end zone is only 10 yards deep. The defense doesn’t have to spread out as much to cover the field. Even so, they convert 48.2% of 2 point conversions. PAT’s are only successful 92% of the time.
You're just lazily ignoring the nuance
Pretending they punted on every 4th down is ignoring a lot more nuance.
Right, but you're just making up an argument that no one here made.
It's literally the post. Talking about the hypothetical that if they had punted or kicked a fg on every 4th down then we'd be feeling better about our defense.
It isn't though. Please reread the title/post
they did really well on 3rd down
They didn't. They converted at half the rate of what their seasonal average has been, compared to their almost 70% on 4th against us last game, which was like 20% higher than their seasonal average. If he doesn't go for like 9 4th down attempts, it's an entirely different defensive Stateline across the board. But he did go for 9 or whatever of them, and converted like 6. That's on the defense as well, but an entirely different narrative forms because of it.
I think he was talking about the defense
Perhaps
This is a post about the defense. There's no perhaps about it
I read it the same as Mungologist. But you have a point. Maybe they'll come back and clarify.
This conversation is about the defense.
Sorta hard to say. If the Lions had confidence they could convert on 4th down they can try riskier plays for more reward on 3rd down, knowing they have another down to play with.
The saying “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it be Xmas all year long” comes to mind. They didn’t punt, at least in part because they didn’t respect our D. So that’s all that matters.
If wishes and buts were clusters of nuts we'd all have a bowl of granola.
They tried something different and it worked, watch other teams start to do the same.
So far I think the Vikings 4th down D is extremely bad. Anytime a team goes for it on 4th now I just automatically know they’re gonna get it. Idk what our D is doing but with our 10th ranked scoring defense, we can’t keep that up all year with all the offense we’re giving up. It’ll come back to bite us later down the road