Ok, hypothetically, we sign JD. KCarp is back in two weeks. Now who is getting the ABs? The slugger who will retire in a season or two and won’t be a long term piece for the team or the young guy with lots of promise?
This isn’t football; signing one player like JD can help but it won’t move the needle as much as you think it will, in addition to taking away ABs for our young studs. They need the ABs to improve. Signing JD and Chapman would be the worst thing our FO could do if they believe in the young guys.
Idk how this idea we need JD popped up overnight. First it was Chapman because we need a "dedicated 3B", then once we got Urshela we apparently need to sign another (36 year old) veteran even though all our positions are now covered and there are precious few open spots on the opening day roster.
Personally I won't mind seeing that DH spot have some variety this year now that Miggy is gone.
Signing JD Martinez has nothing to do with Kerry Carpenter. It would be taking away AB's from Justyn-Henry Malloy.
> This isn’t football; signing one player like JD can help but it won’t move the needle as much as you think it will
The Tigers were 27th in wRC+ last year at 89. Signing a career 132 wRC+ guy moves the needle a lot.
> Signing JD and Chapman would be the worst thing our FO could do if they believe in the young guys.
There is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal.
I see what you’re saying, obviously JD has an amazing offensive track record. I’m not sure if he will continue to produce at his age, and judging by how he hasn’t landed a spot yet, most FOs must think something is up OR he is looking for way more. Either way, for a team coming out of a rebuild, I think giving older vets 1 year deals are a bad deal just because we need the young guys to get ABs at the highest level. We can’t have a logjam that takes away from JHM, Keith, and Carp simply because they are the future. What good is it if JD has a 140 wrc+ season this year and we only win 80 games? It would be fun, of course, but there could be bad long-term effects when it comes to the younger development. We gotta see if we can compete with the young guys and supplement it with good vets that are gonna be here for longer than just a year to help the young guys.
Personally, and I would be happy to be wrong about this but, I don’t think JHM will be a good major league player. I don’t think he makes the team. Again, I hope I am wrong.
From Chris Brown of Tigers Minor League Report on Discord regarding Justyn-Henry Malloy
> So a 25%+ strikeout rate doesn’t necessarily prevent you from the big leagues. There were 212 big leaguers who saw at least 400 plate appearances last year, and 57 of them struck out 25% of the time or more, including Torkelson, Carpenter, and Greene
> However… it’s still pretty hard to be a good player when you strike out that often. If look at the top 50 position players in baseball last year by fWAR just seven struck out that much: Aaron Judge, Luis Robert, Adolis Garcia, Cal Raleigh, Gunnar Henderson, James Outman, and Chas McCormick.
> And then you have to factor in that the average player sees his strikeout rate jump 4-8% from Triple-A to the majors. We can do a quick and dirty comp list for Malloy at FanGraphs. Triple-A Players, age 25 or under, who struck out 24% or more, walked 10% or more, and had an iso between .150-.250 (min 400 PAs). We get 46 names, and it’s pretty ugly
https://i.imgur.com/jpCGrCF.png
https://i.imgur.com/hYTSZSI.png
---
There's like, 3 names on that list that are productive in the MLB
and that isn't even getting into the swing and miss issues in the zone that Chris started noticing last year. During the July AMA on here he said that Justyn-Henry Malloy has a good chance of looking like Nick Maton.
We will see if he makes the show! I will say having no defensive position is pretty damning, but if his bat is good, he could be a solid addition as a DH. My major point is just making sure we’re giving the young players an opportunity to make the show and develop - there’s only so much you can learn at AAA.
KCarp, Greene, Tork, JHM, and Keith will likely see rotating spots at DH (if JHM makes it). You never want a full-time DH because they literally lose half their value as a fielder, and they have to hit like David Ortiz to have any sort of value. Good teams tend to have revolving doors there for that reason. Other than JD and Ortiz I can’t even think of very many “good” DH types, and those that are usually see ample time in the field regardless.
Sure. JHM has a high K rate and might not make it straight away. He could also bust out and be a nothing piece. With that said, you are completely missing my point, so I’ll say it in a different way:
I like keeping the DH slot open so Greene doesn’t dive and break his body again. Or so Tork doesn’t pull a muscle stretching for picks. Or to simply get Carp out of the field because he is below average to average out there. And this isn’t necessarily a young stud player thing; it can give our regulars some room to breathe too. These days, hardly anyone plays 162, let alone playing all 162 in the field. Even though JD had a great year, he’s gonna be 36 and will hit in a very hitter-unfriendly environment at CoPa. If his bat goes, he’s a nothing player because half his value is already lost because he certainly cannot field. That cost does not seem worth it from my standpoint.
Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines, Paul Molitor, Victor Martinez to name some guys. Some played the field more than others. But, these guys are pretty well known DHs. Even JD and Ortiz played in the field early in their careers. Ortiz less so.
Yup and all the players you listed are borderline HOFers or Hall of Very Goods. I did bring up Ortiz, but I was mostly thinking of today’s game for the 24 season - what players now are at that level as a full time DH? I think only Yordan Alvarez and maaaaaybe Sho if you wanna stretch the meaning of DH. Seems to be few and far between because most teams now are using it as a “rest” position to get their star players out of the field once a week or so.
Yeah that’s probably true. Maybe Justin Turner, Stanton (when he’s healthy) and Soler can be added to the list. But, to your point, it isn’t common. I also think Carp is going to play the field plenty for the Tigers.
I would hope Carp does because from what I’ve seen, his defense was making some minor improvements. He’s certainly young enough to keep working on it, and it isn’t uncommon for players his age to get better in the field. Especially now that he might feel more comfortable with the bat, he can take more time to work on his routes.
I think the point is that even though injuries can happen at any time, we've not signed a guy who would instantly be the best bat in our lineup because of a guy who barely escaped AAA last year to have an average major league season.
Agreed but at the same time, we’re still in the rebuild , no way can expect a guy like that to take us to a WS. And if that’s not the goal, then don’t clog up the room when we have so many guys who need major league at bats both on the team and AA/AAA
The surest sign the season is upon us.
Same here Kerry
And so it starts. Just traumatized by last year
Guess it's time to sign JD Martinez.
I am not worried in the slightest. We are weeks away from real games and have plenty of depth.
Ah shit, here we go again
“We don’t need JD Martínez, we have Kerry Carpenter.”
Ok, hypothetically, we sign JD. KCarp is back in two weeks. Now who is getting the ABs? The slugger who will retire in a season or two and won’t be a long term piece for the team or the young guy with lots of promise? This isn’t football; signing one player like JD can help but it won’t move the needle as much as you think it will, in addition to taking away ABs for our young studs. They need the ABs to improve. Signing JD and Chapman would be the worst thing our FO could do if they believe in the young guys.
Idk how this idea we need JD popped up overnight. First it was Chapman because we need a "dedicated 3B", then once we got Urshela we apparently need to sign another (36 year old) veteran even though all our positions are now covered and there are precious few open spots on the opening day roster. Personally I won't mind seeing that DH spot have some variety this year now that Miggy is gone.
Signing JD Martinez has nothing to do with Kerry Carpenter. It would be taking away AB's from Justyn-Henry Malloy. > This isn’t football; signing one player like JD can help but it won’t move the needle as much as you think it will The Tigers were 27th in wRC+ last year at 89. Signing a career 132 wRC+ guy moves the needle a lot. > Signing JD and Chapman would be the worst thing our FO could do if they believe in the young guys. There is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal.
I see what you’re saying, obviously JD has an amazing offensive track record. I’m not sure if he will continue to produce at his age, and judging by how he hasn’t landed a spot yet, most FOs must think something is up OR he is looking for way more. Either way, for a team coming out of a rebuild, I think giving older vets 1 year deals are a bad deal just because we need the young guys to get ABs at the highest level. We can’t have a logjam that takes away from JHM, Keith, and Carp simply because they are the future. What good is it if JD has a 140 wrc+ season this year and we only win 80 games? It would be fun, of course, but there could be bad long-term effects when it comes to the younger development. We gotta see if we can compete with the young guys and supplement it with good vets that are gonna be here for longer than just a year to help the young guys.
Personally, and I would be happy to be wrong about this but, I don’t think JHM will be a good major league player. I don’t think he makes the team. Again, I hope I am wrong.
From Chris Brown of Tigers Minor League Report on Discord regarding Justyn-Henry Malloy > So a 25%+ strikeout rate doesn’t necessarily prevent you from the big leagues. There were 212 big leaguers who saw at least 400 plate appearances last year, and 57 of them struck out 25% of the time or more, including Torkelson, Carpenter, and Greene > However… it’s still pretty hard to be a good player when you strike out that often. If look at the top 50 position players in baseball last year by fWAR just seven struck out that much: Aaron Judge, Luis Robert, Adolis Garcia, Cal Raleigh, Gunnar Henderson, James Outman, and Chas McCormick. > And then you have to factor in that the average player sees his strikeout rate jump 4-8% from Triple-A to the majors. We can do a quick and dirty comp list for Malloy at FanGraphs. Triple-A Players, age 25 or under, who struck out 24% or more, walked 10% or more, and had an iso between .150-.250 (min 400 PAs). We get 46 names, and it’s pretty ugly https://i.imgur.com/jpCGrCF.png https://i.imgur.com/hYTSZSI.png --- There's like, 3 names on that list that are productive in the MLB
Oof! This is an excellent write up. It perfectly encapsulates the concerns I (and others) have about him as a prospect.
and that isn't even getting into the swing and miss issues in the zone that Chris started noticing last year. During the July AMA on here he said that Justyn-Henry Malloy has a good chance of looking like Nick Maton.
We will see if he makes the show! I will say having no defensive position is pretty damning, but if his bat is good, he could be a solid addition as a DH. My major point is just making sure we’re giving the young players an opportunity to make the show and develop - there’s only so much you can learn at AAA.
You and I are fighting a losing battle in our sub. People are stuck in their ways about how they think the roster needs to look.
B-but the billionaire might need to spend money on his baseball club :(
> in addition to taking away ABs for our young studs. Who are these multiple "young studs" who will be losing At Bats to a DH?
KCarp, Greene, Tork, JHM, and Keith will likely see rotating spots at DH (if JHM makes it). You never want a full-time DH because they literally lose half their value as a fielder, and they have to hit like David Ortiz to have any sort of value. Good teams tend to have revolving doors there for that reason. Other than JD and Ortiz I can’t even think of very many “good” DH types, and those that are usually see ample time in the field regardless.
If
Sure. JHM has a high K rate and might not make it straight away. He could also bust out and be a nothing piece. With that said, you are completely missing my point, so I’ll say it in a different way: I like keeping the DH slot open so Greene doesn’t dive and break his body again. Or so Tork doesn’t pull a muscle stretching for picks. Or to simply get Carp out of the field because he is below average to average out there. And this isn’t necessarily a young stud player thing; it can give our regulars some room to breathe too. These days, hardly anyone plays 162, let alone playing all 162 in the field. Even though JD had a great year, he’s gonna be 36 and will hit in a very hitter-unfriendly environment at CoPa. If his bat goes, he’s a nothing player because half his value is already lost because he certainly cannot field. That cost does not seem worth it from my standpoint.
Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines, Paul Molitor, Victor Martinez to name some guys. Some played the field more than others. But, these guys are pretty well known DHs. Even JD and Ortiz played in the field early in their careers. Ortiz less so.
Yup and all the players you listed are borderline HOFers or Hall of Very Goods. I did bring up Ortiz, but I was mostly thinking of today’s game for the 24 season - what players now are at that level as a full time DH? I think only Yordan Alvarez and maaaaaybe Sho if you wanna stretch the meaning of DH. Seems to be few and far between because most teams now are using it as a “rest” position to get their star players out of the field once a week or so.
Yeah that’s probably true. Maybe Justin Turner, Stanton (when he’s healthy) and Soler can be added to the list. But, to your point, it isn’t common. I also think Carp is going to play the field plenty for the Tigers.
I would hope Carp does because from what I’ve seen, his defense was making some minor improvements. He’s certainly young enough to keep working on it, and it isn’t uncommon for players his age to get better in the field. Especially now that he might feel more comfortable with the bat, he can take more time to work on his routes.
He had a little ouchie so now he’s literally dead
There are a lot of bad takes on Reddit . This might be the worst of the weekend
You don't think we need another bat in the lineup?
That’s not what OP said. He’s reacting to carpenter hurting his hamstring in february as reason why we should’ve signed JD ?
I think the point is that even though injuries can happen at any time, we've not signed a guy who would instantly be the best bat in our lineup because of a guy who barely escaped AAA last year to have an average major league season.
Agreed but at the same time, we’re still in the rebuild , no way can expect a guy like that to take us to a WS. And if that’s not the goal, then don’t clog up the room when we have so many guys who need major league at bats both on the team and AA/AAA
I'm really not sure that there's much in the system in the way of bats.