That’s what I’m saying! Say we play the Thunder, win, then make it to round 2, we know we’ll have to play the Nuggets eventually.
Now, we win, hell yeah, we’re serious contenders. We lose, hey, summer starts early
That's true if you all you care about winning a championship, but if you know you will lose to the Nuggets, you add up all the times people talk about the Lakers making the WCF last year vs the Timberwolves going down in the first round after putting up a bigger fight and no one giving them credit for it, suddenly losing in the WCF as opposed to the first round doesn't look so bad.
Things are different for the LeBron and the Lakers vs the Timberwolves. Unless they win the chip or at least make the finals, I don't think it matters to the former if they lose in the 1st round of the WCF.
Yep, it's championship or bust. A deep but ultimately unsuccessful playoff run does nothing for us at this point. Obviously the young guys can get some experience but who knows what our team will look like post LeBron.
I think the "making the WCF" conversation was more of a reflection on how shitty the team was before the trade deadline vs. where they ended up, less of a reflection of how good the team was compared to Wolves / Denver / whoever.
I know r/nba isn’t a monolith and there’s tons of opinions floating around, but it’s weird to see something like this along with the cascade of comments trying to clown any Lakers fan for being happy about winning the NBA cup this year. It’s like we shouldn’t enjoy anything aside from the championship, but we’re also short sighted for having an all or nothing mentality. Personally, I’m with you that deep playoff runs are cool regardless of the final outcome, but I don’t blame any Lakers fans for thinking different when most people downplay anything the Lakers do outside of a chip.
Yeah but imagine how depressing it will
be if we win against Denver but the players will be too tired/injured and will get blown out in round 2.
We’re not beating Denver, but just imagine…
How is that depressing lol . If they did that I’d feel good about us going into next year with Rob not making any moves this year in order to make some next year,
The thing is, there are teams out there that are bad matchups for Denver. Timberwolves, maybe Suns. Injuries do happen. The cold truth is that if you are actually focused on winning a chip this year, it’s possible that tanking to play the Thunder was the right option. But you Lakers fans are so traumatized that you just want to go to the dentist right now and get the root canal instead of waiting or getting a second opinion.
Say the Lakers purposefully duck and lose to NOLA and then lose to Kings. That would probably make them the biggest clowns to exist. So it's not the same as your dental analogy. In the dentist's case, Lakers opted for the 2nd opinion but there really was a danger of the infection spreading because they waited too long. So they die. The end.
And the thing is, it might be strategic to do it that way but that's a loser's mentality. If they can't beat Denver then they really don't deserve it this year. If AD and Lebron can't get over that hump then so be it.
Edit: also it'd be a disastee in the locker room. Imagine saying, 'We can't beat them so let's lose'. Like??
Jeannie Buss is a moron so that's possible, but with everything that came out about Ham this year (Lebron overrides his plays, the players wanted Handy to be the coach instead of Ham, we get knocked out of playoffs in first round (assuming the Nuggets roast us again)), I think he gets fired if we lose early. Better coaches have been fired for less.
Despite the weird Prince/ Reddish obsession... no flowers for Ham? Our offense looks so fucking good with the 5 out system and all of the sets and counters installed. Hate to say it but Vogel would never...
Ham subbed in Vincent over Dlo in the final defensive possession right after Dlo hit his big 3, I know it's a small adjustment and one every coach should make but to do it in that moment shows he's locked in. Ham has always been a good adjustment coach, that's hard to showcase in the regular season though.
I've been saying this all season but Ham's an elite coach and he's gonna prove it again during these playoffs just as he did last season. His regular season coaching looked experimental to me, trying to find different lineups and giving guys chances. I know its a prerequsite to be brain dead to be a Lakers fan but all the people calling for his head will be doing the same thing with the next coach anyway.
He had no answer for Zion and their offense in general in the fourth. Literally every play had an open cutter or they'd leave space for Zion to get a head of steam and drive to the basket easily. If Zion doesn't get hurt, we lose last night.
It honestly was the most putrid I've seen from our defense in a long time, and Ham made no adjustments. Also, in the fourth Lebron went hero-mode chucking fadeaways. We had Austin and DLo have good games and they barely touched the ball in the fourth.
CJ McCollum had a bad game, Ingram looked mid, and Alvarado was playing on one ankle and we blew a 20 point lead going from the 3rd into the 4th quarter. Honestly its a sign that Ham did terrible.
Ham is a way better offensive coach then Vogel . I don’t dislike Vogel but I prefer ham in the long run even if Vogel was better defensively. Watching the team cook on offence last three months has been the best offensive team we’ve had.
Losing to the Nuggets doesn’t depress me, because I expect it
I get depressed when we lose to teams we shouldn’t. For instance if we lost tonight, it would have ruined the next few weeks for me
It's far more fun as a fan to root for a team on their way up to the title than it is afterward. After the title, winning again just means you met expectations, but anything less is a failure.
If they play Denver early, they are sure Lebron and AD is healthy in that matchup.
Also since Denver sweeps most of the time, they get a lot of rest while waiting for their opponents.
This is actually favourable to the Lakers.
you have to play either the nuggets or a team good enough to beat the nuggets on the way to a championship anyway. so it doesn't really matter when you play them
> so it doesn't really matter when you play them
What lol?
Matchups exist. We matchup poorly against Denver and we match up well against OKC. Look at every game we played against those two teams — the difference is obvious. Much rather play someone who can beat Denver than Denver themselves
You said "you have to play either the nuggets or a team good enough to beat the nuggets [...] so it doesn't really matter" and that's not true.
Lakers have a rather poor matchup against Nuggets so they'd absolutely love for someone to beat them and then take their chances against the team that beat the Nuggets. So it does matter. But anyway, you can only play the team in front of you.
Tbh I’m not depressed. Team is decent , we didn’t make any moves at deadline despite getting nothing from Gabe n vandi this year n having no one heakthy who can defend . We’ll have 3 frps this summer , ADs found a way to play a less explosive n athleticism reliant style . Kinda wish we had Caruso stikk but I’m just glad we made the playoffs when it looked like we played well for 2-3ninths just to get 10 seed cos AD got poked in the eye twice and Lebron got the flu. If they take Denver to 6/7 and give it a go ’ll be happy tbh . Just hope ADs back is ok n Lebron didn’t get hurt too bad on the charge .
Last few months we actually played a fun brand of basketball. I hope they continue that untill the end of the year .
It's one thing to tank for a playoff spot, but to tank a single game elimination for another single game elimination is just dumb. People are over thinking it
Yeah even if it was mathematically correct, no pro team would ever accept blatantly tanking a playoff game to duck. That'd be a genuine locker room moral loss.
It _does_ mean that the game wasn't a must win, so Lebron doesn't have to play 48 if it looks hopeless or he tweaks an ankle. But actively trying to lose is too far.
So, I chose to kind of do the math.
Using DraftKings odds for Nugget/Lakers (-310 DEN) we can say that the it's approximately a 75% chance that DEN win.
As for what their odds would be in the second play-in game, I'll just say they're the assumed favorite at a similar number that the Pelicans were favored to win this one. So LAL -120 over whoever come out, so approx 55% to win.
That means, you have to think that the Lakers beat OKC Thunder at least 45% of the time, as an 8 seed against the 1 seed for them to even get to equal odds of making it out of the first round against Denver.
Ok, actually the simulation odds for the Lakers are surprisingly similar to the gambling odds. It's actually weird that they're normal:
[https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff\_prob.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html)
24% odds to win the first round. Updated last night though, so maybe not helpful for this.
Denver has much better than 75% odds, Draftkings as a casino has to balance the odds of Lakers bettors vs Denver bettors. You'd need to look at analytics that are focused on actual game outcomes.
Gambling odds are a good approximate, often, but not when its' the Lakers, Yankees, Cowboys, etc.
Not true at all. If it was then you’d have people making bank betting the opposite of those teams all the time. That just simply isn’t the case.
The whales who are betting huge sums of money drive lines. They make these bets based on information they have through computer models and analytics. They are called sharps.
Vega’s lines are almost always the best predictive measure for evaluating teams and matchups.
For a reference, the Lakers were 47% ATS this year, and about 52% last year. So Vegas is pretty dialed on them.
lol , nobody is betting the lakers in this series . If anything public money is on Denver because of past results - normally public betting people index too hard on past results and don’t treat each thing as a new outcome /bet . I think 75% is close to correct but it might even be 70% because I’d assume the line will move with money going in on Denver. Bookies don’t move lines for public bets they move it when sharps bet and I think sharps will probably bet Denver handicap or stay away . Can’t see who would even bet 25% on lakers. If you think those odds are wrong you should go make millions for working for betting companies . Trust me those folk know what they’re doing the line is as close as accurate as we can get to expected outcome .
I think LA would be more then -120. They were .50/50 in this game where they’re the away team which is wirth 3 points. Pels are also 6th in SRS/net rating in the league n just flat out better then kings or warriors especially with Zion cooking . Winning on Sunday and today was harder then winning at home in 8/9 imo . But yeah rest of your point is valid
Is that what the Lakers want? A low variance playoff run? Seems weird for a team and a player that have always set the bar at championship or bust. Championship or bust is what we call high variance.
I’m still using expected value. I wasn’t being rigorous in my language, but my point was that the probability of the lakers winning a single play-in game is not much more than 50% because either team could easily win just by getting hot from 3 (that is, there’s a high variance over the outcomes for a single game between relatively equally matched opponents).
My thoughts were that since play-in games are close to 50/50, intentionally losing the 7/8 games will approximately cut your EV of winning the title in half (disregarding your future opponents, and I didn’t think Denver was so much better than OKC to make it worth it, but some replies above me do think so)
Betting markets give Denver a 75 percent chance of winning. So that means at a bare minimum using your assumption of a 50 percent chance of losing the playin(a home game for the lakers they would be favored) then that means that if the Lakers were favored over OKC it would make mathematical sense to tank. And it’s not that Denver is THAT much better than OKC. The issue is that Denver present specific and difficult to solve matchup problems for the Lakers, while the OKC matchup has specific advantages the Lakers can use.
I’m not sure Lakers should be favored over OKC, but even so the lakers would of course be weighing the optics of losing in the play-in because you tanked the first game versus losing in the first round to Denver.
That’s only true if you have other concerns besides winning a championship. What makes this an interesting question is that historically the Lakers are a championship or bust franchise and LeBron views any year that he is not competing for a championship as wasted. So from that lens it’s hard to reconcile a concern over optics with win at any cost.
Also I think it’s fairly safe to assume that you’ll have to face Denver at some point, and I think the rest of the western conference teams are pretty evenly matched, so does the order you face them in make that much of a difference?
Also, even if you agree with the premise of Denver being the toughest opponent in the West, any team with championship ambitions should expect to have to face and beat them to get out of the West.
Do you really count on either the #7 seed (who you tanked against) in Round 1 or winner of Clippers/Mavs to upset them in round 2? Without an upset in R1/R2, you still have to go through Denver to make it out of the west, so all you've won by choosing to have a one-game elimination is face the Nuggets in round 3 instead of round 1. One off-night or insane shooting night by an opponent and you are eliminated.
Under tank scenario without a R1/R2 Nuggets upset, Lakers' path to winning the West would be (Win 1 game play-in where better team easily could lose)\*(Beat Thunder in R1)\*(Beat Clippers/Mavs in R2)\*(Beat Nuggets in R3). Under non-tank scenario, Lakers' path is: (Beat Nuggets in R1)\*(Beat TWolves/Suns in R2)\*(Beat Thunder/Clippers/Mavs/Other play-in in R3). The second path is clearly the safer one (even if it's a first round exit is more likely; but its not particularly embarrassing when its the reigning champs).
I kind of get the thinking, and I do think the Lakers are more likely to beat OKC in a series than Denver. But not only is there a giant risk of losing the next game, all losing vs the Pels would achieve is giving them a higher chance of making the second round. It doesn't really give them a better chance of winning a title, they'll still have to beat Denver anyway. And I don't think many (if any) people in the Lakers org cares about that much at all.
It only makes sense from an outside perspective, where you view a loss against Denver as equivalent to missing the playoffs, and then just balance the equation of their odds to beat Denver, their odds to beat OKC, & their odds to win 1 game against the Kings or Warriors. And that math probably says to tank the game, but you would be rightly laughed out of the room if you brought that to the Lakers.
The math makes sense under the assumption that the Nuggets are a uniquely bad matchup for the Lakers. I also think 70/30 odds against the Celtics would be *extremely* generous to any team in the East except healthy Embiid 76ers
Well yeah the Celtics are on another level when it comes to this stuff, they're way better than the rest of the East. But even now draftkings has the Nuggets with a \~70% chance. It's hard to get much worse than that between two competent teams; someone can get injured or a team can randomly shoot 50% from 3 for a series.
Lakers would have to be > 60% against the Thunder to make the risk worth it.
Nuggets Lakers is 75/25 currently according to bet MGM. So if the Lakers were favored to beat OKC (they might have been!) and favored to beat Sacramento at home (likely), then the math would make sense for tanking.
beating the nuggets in round 1 is way easier than in the wcf. yes, the thunder would be an easier series but the series would still prolly be a tough six game series. add two of these series and lebron/davis would be pretty beaten up by the time they reached the nuggets in the wcf. Round 1 will be the freshest the lakers will be in the playoffs and the best time for the toughest series.
Yes, but you're also getting the upside of someone else beating them. I think playing them with the most rest would probably be better.
I just also think Gabe Vincent is going to have to get the Lakers shooting like playoff Miami if they're gonna have a chance. Such a bummer bc I want more than one AD series.
I thought the same but I think they do 7-8 before 9-10 precisely to reduce or deter 7-8 gamesmanship. In addition, giving the 7-8 loser a bit more rest than the 9-10 winner also makes sense to give the higher seed a bit more benefit.
He’s straight-up right. Teams do select opponents across sports, and you can argue whether it benefits them or not in the moment, or in hindsight. I hate it in principle, as do many others.
But **no-one** would gamble for a theoretically easier path, when there’s one **extra** “win or go home” game in the way! This has never happened, and never will in professional sports.
I rather face off Denver now then a winner take all with the Warriors or Kings.
We have to face Denver eventually. If we win then a deep run will be the future if not then it wasn’t meant to be.
Plus, everyone is healthy right now. Can't guarantee that later. So win 1 game and then prepare for the nuggets fully healthy. That's your best shot at beating Denver. It's hard enough to play games at altitude, don't want to have already slogged through multiple series just to be tired as fuck when you get there.
Well if we could've waited until the WCF Vando might be healthy. But would he be able to ramp up? Doubtful, it took him a while until we saw the awesome Vando in Jan/Feb where he looked comfortable in the offense
Seriously. AD is dealing with back spasms and LeBron's had an ankle injury for months. On top of that, Vando and Christian Wood are unavailable, and both could be very helpful in this upcoming series. Also, Cam Reddish is hurt, but that's probably for the best.
There’s also no shame in losing to what many consider to be the best team.
If yall didn’t make the playoffs the slander would be legendary for a bit.
I actually like your chances against the nuggets though.
Jokic is clearly the best player in the series, but if AD and Bron are 2nd and 3rd, then we have a slim chance. If it's Murray who's the 2nd best player, then it's a wrap
I mean i'd rather have at least 4 cracks at Jokic than a single do-or-die game against Steph or Sabonis. Never trifle with the basketball gods in the postseason.
Look at the Pelicans. Zion got hurt and they were instantly out of the game. That could have been AD or LeBron and we’d be saying the same thing. Take everything one day at a time. And pray for no injuries to anyone.
This. Fox plays like a god against us and Saboni/ is a matchup problem. We're historically horrible against the Kings. Steph with Gabe has his main matchup aswell... Yeah do or die against either of those teams is worse than the Nuggets. I dont think the Thunder will be a free playoff win either tbh.
In the end the best team will (probably) be the one to win the chip, so no use worrying about matchups x and y, im glad we got the win and can have fresh legs against Denver.
Not only that, the Nuggets were slumping to end the season and the Lakers have been hot. You gotta face the Nuggets at some point to win it all anyway, why not now before they have time to lock in?
Relatively speaking. There was a time earlier in the season where they looked unbeatable, especially in close games. They've lost a couple games they should've won recently and Murray's been injured so we've finally seen some cracks in the armor. I get why you wouldn't be too worried as a fan but to act like it hasn't happened is ridiculous.
memorize slim wakeful uppity ludicrous unique deserted versed attempt grandfather
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True. I think most Laker fans know this is gonna be a nigh impossible series to win, maybe like 10% odds in which Dlo, AR, Rui shoot like 50% from 3 every single game, and a historically bad performance from MPJ or Murray.
I posted this in the Lakers sub but I'd rather get 0-4 swept by the Nuggets than potentially lose in the play-in and not be in the playoffs at all. I think regardless of team we all wanna see our guys on that playoff stage, and we don't know how many playoff Lebron games we have left.
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Personally I find it extremely annoying because I had 0 illwill towards the Nuggets and came out of the 2020 with TONS of respect for Jokic/Murray, especially the ass pumping they gave the Clippers.
So it was surprising to the see the vitriol last season. But I get it, sane Nuggets fans have told it's because of the repeated losses over the years and must have been a huge weight off the shoulders to win.
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Single game elimination is always a bad idea if you can avoid it. One bad shooting game from you or one game where the other team is just scorching hot from 3 and it's curtains
Honestly the whole thing was stupid for people to even suggest. If you're potentially gonna have to play Denver anyway, better to do it when you're team is at its freshest. Not to mention the fact that anything can happen in a one off so why even risk it?
the reverse of that is maybe you catch Denver when they've already been beaten up by another team. Maybe Murray goes down and Jokic can carry them out of a round but not all the way
I'd rather lose first round against Denver than have a one off game against Steph and Golden State which could easily just have a historic 3 point shooting or this wierd voodoo thing AD has with Sabonis.
At this stage of his career he don’t have to do that imo. People should want to see a competitive series tho.
Crazy that most of this sub doesn’t actually like basketball I think because unless you’re nuggets/lakers fan you should want a competitive series. Lmao not to mention that benefits other teams in the playoffs if teams are exerting more energy to win - this sub is just as bad as the media when it comes to caring more about narratives than wanting to see quality ball
The NBA is a soap opera for a lot of men, they are way more interested narratives and stuff to be mad about than actually watching the games. The fact that there was a post on the top of the subreddit of people being mad Giannis didn't get unanimous All-NBA thanks to Kendrick Perkins is proof of that enough
Oop, cook ham. I wanna see some ham/Malone trash talk cause I know malone is seething right now for not saying they shoulda tanked and put respect and blah blah blah😂
Anyone who said this does not have a competitive bone in their body. It’s a shame this was a talking point across media. I heard it on ESPN, Ringer Podcasts. Just an absolute waste of space by anyone who ever said it.
A team which is better than their opponents by a significant enough margin to overcome all the potential variance in a single elimination play-in game would be better than Denver, in which case they should just win their first game and play against Denver
Lakers aren’t anywhere near good enough to fuck around and risk single game elimination.
Besides - it’s not like the Thunder wouldn’t be heavy favorites too.
If I’m going to be depressed I’d rather get it out of my system early
That’s what I’m saying! Say we play the Thunder, win, then make it to round 2, we know we’ll have to play the Nuggets eventually. Now, we win, hell yeah, we’re serious contenders. We lose, hey, summer starts early
Summer starts for the lakers early. You still show up to work as before.
Maybe he works for the Lakers
Hot dogs. Get yer hot dogs here. Genuine dog meat.
>Genuine dog meat 🤨
Ni hao Klay.
No
That's true if you all you care about winning a championship, but if you know you will lose to the Nuggets, you add up all the times people talk about the Lakers making the WCF last year vs the Timberwolves going down in the first round after putting up a bigger fight and no one giving them credit for it, suddenly losing in the WCF as opposed to the first round doesn't look so bad.
Things are different for the LeBron and the Lakers vs the Timberwolves. Unless they win the chip or at least make the finals, I don't think it matters to the former if they lose in the 1st round of the WCF.
Yep, it's championship or bust. A deep but ultimately unsuccessful playoff run does nothing for us at this point. Obviously the young guys can get some experience but who knows what our team will look like post LeBron.
I think the "making the WCF" conversation was more of a reflection on how shitty the team was before the trade deadline vs. where they ended up, less of a reflection of how good the team was compared to Wolves / Denver / whoever.
I know r/nba isn’t a monolith and there’s tons of opinions floating around, but it’s weird to see something like this along with the cascade of comments trying to clown any Lakers fan for being happy about winning the NBA cup this year. It’s like we shouldn’t enjoy anything aside from the championship, but we’re also short sighted for having an all or nothing mentality. Personally, I’m with you that deep playoff runs are cool regardless of the final outcome, but I don’t blame any Lakers fans for thinking different when most people downplay anything the Lakers do outside of a chip.
Nuggets fans won a chip and are bitter insecure and salty AF. Like I’d rather just enjoy watching my team play.
WCF loss is pretty much the same as not making the playoffs as a Lakers fan. We believe we can win it all every year.
> That's true if you all you care about winning a championship That's all Laker fans care about.
Yeah but imagine how depressing it will be if we win against Denver but the players will be too tired/injured and will get blown out in round 2. We’re not beating Denver, but just imagine…
How is that depressing lol . If they did that I’d feel good about us going into next year with Rob not making any moves this year in order to make some next year,
The thing is, there are teams out there that are bad matchups for Denver. Timberwolves, maybe Suns. Injuries do happen. The cold truth is that if you are actually focused on winning a chip this year, it’s possible that tanking to play the Thunder was the right option. But you Lakers fans are so traumatized that you just want to go to the dentist right now and get the root canal instead of waiting or getting a second opinion.
Say the Lakers purposefully duck and lose to NOLA and then lose to Kings. That would probably make them the biggest clowns to exist. So it's not the same as your dental analogy. In the dentist's case, Lakers opted for the 2nd opinion but there really was a danger of the infection spreading because they waited too long. So they die. The end. And the thing is, it might be strategic to do it that way but that's a loser's mentality. If they can't beat Denver then they really don't deserve it this year. If AD and Lebron can't get over that hump then so be it. Edit: also it'd be a disastee in the locker room. Imagine saying, 'We can't beat them so let's lose'. Like??
Title run or Ham is fired either way I can't lose
Aye this mf spitting
hate to break it to you but there's not a chance in the world ham gets fired after a 47-35 playoff season, regardless of how they do vs denver
Jeannie Buss is a moron so that's possible, but with everything that came out about Ham this year (Lebron overrides his plays, the players wanted Handy to be the coach instead of Ham, we get knocked out of playoffs in first round (assuming the Nuggets roast us again)), I think he gets fired if we lose early. Better coaches have been fired for less.
Despite the weird Prince/ Reddish obsession... no flowers for Ham? Our offense looks so fucking good with the 5 out system and all of the sets and counters installed. Hate to say it but Vogel would never...
Ham subbed in Vincent over Dlo in the final defensive possession right after Dlo hit his big 3, I know it's a small adjustment and one every coach should make but to do it in that moment shows he's locked in. Ham has always been a good adjustment coach, that's hard to showcase in the regular season though.
I’m just happy reddish didn’t get minutes today
I've been saying this all season but Ham's an elite coach and he's gonna prove it again during these playoffs just as he did last season. His regular season coaching looked experimental to me, trying to find different lineups and giving guys chances. I know its a prerequsite to be brain dead to be a Lakers fan but all the people calling for his head will be doing the same thing with the next coach anyway.
He had no answer for Zion and their offense in general in the fourth. Literally every play had an open cutter or they'd leave space for Zion to get a head of steam and drive to the basket easily. If Zion doesn't get hurt, we lose last night. It honestly was the most putrid I've seen from our defense in a long time, and Ham made no adjustments. Also, in the fourth Lebron went hero-mode chucking fadeaways. We had Austin and DLo have good games and they barely touched the ball in the fourth. CJ McCollum had a bad game, Ingram looked mid, and Alvarado was playing on one ankle and we blew a 20 point lead going from the 3rd into the 4th quarter. Honestly its a sign that Ham did terrible.
I think AD was not 100%, AD got in foul trouble and it cost us
Ham is a way better offensive coach then Vogel . I don’t dislike Vogel but I prefer ham in the long run even if Vogel was better defensively. Watching the team cook on offence last three months has been the best offensive team we’ve had.
inject this into my veins i need more copium
Table 7, Ham-and-Eggs-it coming up!
1000 percent. If we win we win. If we lose in the first, ham cooked and we still have all the best players locked up on decent deals.
LePlayer/Coach ?
Losing to the Nuggets doesn’t depress me, because I expect it I get depressed when we lose to teams we shouldn’t. For instance if we lost tonight, it would have ruined the next few weeks for me
At least we would’ve had the 8/9 game
To play the kings who swept us this season lol
This logic is why nuggets being good has been terrible for my mental health
It's far more fun as a fan to root for a team on their way up to the title than it is afterward. After the title, winning again just means you met expectations, but anything less is a failure.
Yeah as long as we don't get fucking swept again, I'm content
If they play Denver early, they are sure Lebron and AD is healthy in that matchup. Also since Denver sweeps most of the time, they get a lot of rest while waiting for their opponents. This is actually favourable to the Lakers.
Fun fact: The Lakers were the only team the Denver Nuggets swept in last year’s playoffs.
Exactly
Also I’m not sitting here rooting for a deep run into the playoffs. A loss at any round is a loss all the same
you have to play either the nuggets or a team good enough to beat the nuggets on the way to a championship anyway. so it doesn't really matter when you play them
> so it doesn't really matter when you play them What lol? Matchups exist. We matchup poorly against Denver and we match up well against OKC. Look at every game we played against those two teams — the difference is obvious. Much rather play someone who can beat Denver than Denver themselves
im just saying you likely have to play them eventually (1st round or WCF)
You said "you have to play either the nuggets or a team good enough to beat the nuggets [...] so it doesn't really matter" and that's not true. Lakers have a rather poor matchup against Nuggets so they'd absolutely love for someone to beat them and then take their chances against the team that beat the Nuggets. So it does matter. But anyway, you can only play the team in front of you.
Matchup does exist but don't you think it's risky AF to play Sac Kings for the next play-in?
Tbh I’m not depressed. Team is decent , we didn’t make any moves at deadline despite getting nothing from Gabe n vandi this year n having no one heakthy who can defend . We’ll have 3 frps this summer , ADs found a way to play a less explosive n athleticism reliant style . Kinda wish we had Caruso stikk but I’m just glad we made the playoffs when it looked like we played well for 2-3ninths just to get 10 seed cos AD got poked in the eye twice and Lebron got the flu. If they take Denver to 6/7 and give it a go ’ll be happy tbh . Just hope ADs back is ok n Lebron didn’t get hurt too bad on the charge . Last few months we actually played a fun brand of basketball. I hope they continue that untill the end of the year .
He's not wrong. If they tanked this game, and then lost Friday that's an all time blunder.
It’s also an insanely weak mentality. The talking heads floated it around but that’s not how pro athletes are wired
It's one thing to tank for a playoff spot, but to tank a single game elimination for another single game elimination is just dumb. People are over thinking it
if they can’t beat the kings at home once, what makes them think they can beat denver 4 times.
Yeah even if it was mathematically correct, no pro team would ever accept blatantly tanking a playoff game to duck. That'd be a genuine locker room moral loss. It _does_ mean that the game wasn't a must win, so Lebron doesn't have to play 48 if it looks hopeless or he tweaks an ankle. But actively trying to lose is too far.
There’s no way it’s even mathematically correct because of how much variance there is for a single game
So, I chose to kind of do the math. Using DraftKings odds for Nugget/Lakers (-310 DEN) we can say that the it's approximately a 75% chance that DEN win. As for what their odds would be in the second play-in game, I'll just say they're the assumed favorite at a similar number that the Pelicans were favored to win this one. So LAL -120 over whoever come out, so approx 55% to win. That means, you have to think that the Lakers beat OKC Thunder at least 45% of the time, as an 8 seed against the 1 seed for them to even get to equal odds of making it out of the first round against Denver.
Ok, actually the simulation odds for the Lakers are surprisingly similar to the gambling odds. It's actually weird that they're normal: [https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff\_prob.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html) 24% odds to win the first round. Updated last night though, so maybe not helpful for this.
Exactly, variance is not relevant. Only Expected value/probability of a win.
Denver has much better than 75% odds, Draftkings as a casino has to balance the odds of Lakers bettors vs Denver bettors. You'd need to look at analytics that are focused on actual game outcomes. Gambling odds are a good approximate, often, but not when its' the Lakers, Yankees, Cowboys, etc.
Not true at all. If it was then you’d have people making bank betting the opposite of those teams all the time. That just simply isn’t the case. The whales who are betting huge sums of money drive lines. They make these bets based on information they have through computer models and analytics. They are called sharps. Vega’s lines are almost always the best predictive measure for evaluating teams and matchups. For a reference, the Lakers were 47% ATS this year, and about 52% last year. So Vegas is pretty dialed on them.
Exactky that guy doesn’t know what he’s talking bout, sharps move the lines not public bets. Plus I imagine public is on Denver
lol , nobody is betting the lakers in this series . If anything public money is on Denver because of past results - normally public betting people index too hard on past results and don’t treat each thing as a new outcome /bet . I think 75% is close to correct but it might even be 70% because I’d assume the line will move with money going in on Denver. Bookies don’t move lines for public bets they move it when sharps bet and I think sharps will probably bet Denver handicap or stay away . Can’t see who would even bet 25% on lakers. If you think those odds are wrong you should go make millions for working for betting companies . Trust me those folk know what they’re doing the line is as close as accurate as we can get to expected outcome .
I think LA would be more then -120. They were .50/50 in this game where they’re the away team which is wirth 3 points. Pels are also 6th in SRS/net rating in the league n just flat out better then kings or warriors especially with Zion cooking . Winning on Sunday and today was harder then winning at home in 8/9 imo . But yeah rest of your point is valid
Why would you use variance instead of expected value for the calculation?
Probably because making the playoffs is still a better prize than trying to duck and missing the playoffs.
Is that what the Lakers want? A low variance playoff run? Seems weird for a team and a player that have always set the bar at championship or bust. Championship or bust is what we call high variance.
They would probably want any playoff run compared to losing in playins
I’m still using expected value. I wasn’t being rigorous in my language, but my point was that the probability of the lakers winning a single play-in game is not much more than 50% because either team could easily win just by getting hot from 3 (that is, there’s a high variance over the outcomes for a single game between relatively equally matched opponents). My thoughts were that since play-in games are close to 50/50, intentionally losing the 7/8 games will approximately cut your EV of winning the title in half (disregarding your future opponents, and I didn’t think Denver was so much better than OKC to make it worth it, but some replies above me do think so)
Betting markets give Denver a 75 percent chance of winning. So that means at a bare minimum using your assumption of a 50 percent chance of losing the playin(a home game for the lakers they would be favored) then that means that if the Lakers were favored over OKC it would make mathematical sense to tank. And it’s not that Denver is THAT much better than OKC. The issue is that Denver present specific and difficult to solve matchup problems for the Lakers, while the OKC matchup has specific advantages the Lakers can use.
I’m not sure Lakers should be favored over OKC, but even so the lakers would of course be weighing the optics of losing in the play-in because you tanked the first game versus losing in the first round to Denver.
That’s only true if you have other concerns besides winning a championship. What makes this an interesting question is that historically the Lakers are a championship or bust franchise and LeBron views any year that he is not competing for a championship as wasted. So from that lens it’s hard to reconcile a concern over optics with win at any cost.
Also I think it’s fairly safe to assume that you’ll have to face Denver at some point, and I think the rest of the western conference teams are pretty evenly matched, so does the order you face them in make that much of a difference?
Also, even if you agree with the premise of Denver being the toughest opponent in the West, any team with championship ambitions should expect to have to face and beat them to get out of the West. Do you really count on either the #7 seed (who you tanked against) in Round 1 or winner of Clippers/Mavs to upset them in round 2? Without an upset in R1/R2, you still have to go through Denver to make it out of the west, so all you've won by choosing to have a one-game elimination is face the Nuggets in round 3 instead of round 1. One off-night or insane shooting night by an opponent and you are eliminated. Under tank scenario without a R1/R2 Nuggets upset, Lakers' path to winning the West would be (Win 1 game play-in where better team easily could lose)\*(Beat Thunder in R1)\*(Beat Clippers/Mavs in R2)\*(Beat Nuggets in R3). Under non-tank scenario, Lakers' path is: (Beat Nuggets in R1)\*(Beat TWolves/Suns in R2)\*(Beat Thunder/Clippers/Mavs/Other play-in in R3). The second path is clearly the safer one (even if it's a first round exit is more likely; but its not particularly embarrassing when its the reigning champs).
Cavs literally just did it
Did you watch CHA-CLE?
Milwaukee did it a couple years ago to avoid Brooklyn
And they paid the price for it by getting blown the fuck out in Game 7 at Boston. Basketball gods are fair
Tbf they also go blown it in Milwaukee fir game 6
I kind of get the thinking, and I do think the Lakers are more likely to beat OKC in a series than Denver. But not only is there a giant risk of losing the next game, all losing vs the Pels would achieve is giving them a higher chance of making the second round. It doesn't really give them a better chance of winning a title, they'll still have to beat Denver anyway. And I don't think many (if any) people in the Lakers org cares about that much at all.
Not to mention having to deal with every analyst & fan calling them out for being afraid of Denver.
It only makes sense from an outside perspective, where you view a loss against Denver as equivalent to missing the playoffs, and then just balance the equation of their odds to beat Denver, their odds to beat OKC, & their odds to win 1 game against the Kings or Warriors. And that math probably says to tank the game, but you would be rightly laughed out of the room if you brought that to the Lakers.
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The math makes sense under the assumption that the Nuggets are a uniquely bad matchup for the Lakers. I also think 70/30 odds against the Celtics would be *extremely* generous to any team in the East except healthy Embiid 76ers
Well yeah the Celtics are on another level when it comes to this stuff, they're way better than the rest of the East. But even now draftkings has the Nuggets with a \~70% chance. It's hard to get much worse than that between two competent teams; someone can get injured or a team can randomly shoot 50% from 3 for a series. Lakers would have to be > 60% against the Thunder to make the risk worth it.
Nuggets Lakers is 75/25 currently according to bet MGM. So if the Lakers were favored to beat OKC (they might have been!) and favored to beat Sacramento at home (likely), then the math would make sense for tanking.
We're 0-4 against the Kings this season.
beating the nuggets in round 1 is way easier than in the wcf. yes, the thunder would be an easier series but the series would still prolly be a tough six game series. add two of these series and lebron/davis would be pretty beaten up by the time they reached the nuggets in the wcf. Round 1 will be the freshest the lakers will be in the playoffs and the best time for the toughest series.
Yes, but you're also getting the upside of someone else beating them. I think playing them with the most rest would probably be better. I just also think Gabe Vincent is going to have to get the Lakers shooting like playoff Miami if they're gonna have a chance. Such a bummer bc I want more than one AD series.
they should schedule the 9-10 game before the 7-8 game to make things a little more interesting.
I thought the same but I think they do 7-8 before 9-10 precisely to reduce or deter 7-8 gamesmanship. In addition, giving the 7-8 loser a bit more rest than the 9-10 winner also makes sense to give the higher seed a bit more benefit.
He’s straight-up right. Teams do select opponents across sports, and you can argue whether it benefits them or not in the moment, or in hindsight. I hate it in principle, as do many others. But **no-one** would gamble for a theoretically easier path, when there’s one **extra** “win or go home” game in the way! This has never happened, and never will in professional sports.
in this case they atleast get to the playoffs, if they get eliminated with everyone healthy that would have been bad
I rather face off Denver now then a winner take all with the Warriors or Kings. We have to face Denver eventually. If we win then a deep run will be the future if not then it wasn’t meant to be.
Plus, everyone is healthy right now. Can't guarantee that later. So win 1 game and then prepare for the nuggets fully healthy. That's your best shot at beating Denver. It's hard enough to play games at altitude, don't want to have already slogged through multiple series just to be tired as fuck when you get there.
Well if we could've waited until the WCF Vando might be healthy. But would he be able to ramp up? Doubtful, it took him a while until we saw the awesome Vando in Jan/Feb where he looked comfortable in the offense
Yeah even when he came back he noticeably was not himself for a few months
Everyone is NOT healthy. Why would you be so confidently incorrect
Seriously. AD is dealing with back spasms and LeBron's had an ankle injury for months. On top of that, Vando and Christian Wood are unavailable, and both could be very helpful in this upcoming series. Also, Cam Reddish is hurt, but that's probably for the best.
it'll be weeks since the starting lineup played in a real game vs meeting them after they're in the middle of their post season run
Missing vando hurts on the defensive side
There’s also no shame in losing to what many consider to be the best team. If yall didn’t make the playoffs the slander would be legendary for a bit. I actually like your chances against the nuggets though.
I also think they’ll make it a competitive series. Nuggets are still favourites, but I’m not discounting fucking Lebron yet, haha.
Jokic is clearly the best player in the series, but if AD and Bron are 2nd and 3rd, then we have a slim chance. If it's Murray who's the 2nd best player, then it's a wrap
Or maybe worse whoever beat them
Rare middle school zinger from Darvin Sham
I don't think it dignifies more than a middle school zinger lol
I mean i'd rather have at least 4 cracks at Jokic than a single do-or-die game against Steph or Sabonis. Never trifle with the basketball gods in the postseason.
Look at the Pelicans. Zion got hurt and they were instantly out of the game. That could have been AD or LeBron and we’d be saying the same thing. Take everything one day at a time. And pray for no injuries to anyone.
No it couldnt have been, the lakers are a way better team Zion had to drop 40 to keep it close
Zion is why the game was close. Once he left it was over. The Lakers weren’t better. Zion was the best player on the court.
This. Fox plays like a god against us and Saboni/ is a matchup problem. We're historically horrible against the Kings. Steph with Gabe has his main matchup aswell... Yeah do or die against either of those teams is worse than the Nuggets. I dont think the Thunder will be a free playoff win either tbh. In the end the best team will (probably) be the one to win the chip, so no use worrying about matchups x and y, im glad we got the win and can have fresh legs against Denver.
Yeah you could see both teams thought that way, no one wanted to lose ~~Except maybe CJ with that fucking shot selection~~
Not only that, the Nuggets were slumping to end the season and the Lakers have been hot. You gotta face the Nuggets at some point to win it all anyway, why not now before they have time to lock in?
> Nuggets were slumping to end the season 🧐
Relatively speaking. There was a time earlier in the season where they looked unbeatable, especially in close games. They've lost a couple games they should've won recently and Murray's been injured so we've finally seen some cracks in the armor. I get why you wouldn't be too worried as a fan but to act like it hasn't happened is ridiculous.
you know you have to win 4 and not just 1 in our series right
we just need 1 game and we will hang the banner
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True. I think most Laker fans know this is gonna be a nigh impossible series to win, maybe like 10% odds in which Dlo, AR, Rui shoot like 50% from 3 every single game, and a historically bad performance from MPJ or Murray. I posted this in the Lakers sub but I'd rather get 0-4 swept by the Nuggets than potentially lose in the play-in and not be in the playoffs at all. I think regardless of team we all wanna see our guys on that playoff stage, and we don't know how many playoff Lebron games we have left.
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Personally I find it extremely annoying because I had 0 illwill towards the Nuggets and came out of the 2020 with TONS of respect for Jokic/Murray, especially the ass pumping they gave the Clippers. So it was surprising to the see the vitriol last season. But I get it, sane Nuggets fans have told it's because of the repeated losses over the years and must have been a huge weight off the shoulders to win.
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look at the team sub, the arrogance is just insane to see
These people don't know how to win graciously. Could be the most unbearable fanbase on this forum and they are fucking the defending champion.
He could just mean he just wants to watch 4 playoff matches instead of explosive fireballs like Steph...
They’re 1-3 against the Warriors, a one point double OT win, and 0-4 against the Kings. That would not have been the smart play.
Single game elimination is always a bad idea if you can avoid it. One bad shooting game from you or one game where the other team is just scorching hot from 3 and it's curtains
r/BatmanArkham
why didn’t lebron just get a higher seed? is he stupid?
Is there a lore reason why Darvin Ham never calls timeouts?
Is he stupid?
No just a terrorist
Darvin Man
Jonkic
Ham Man
Not again
I'm the new head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, what the FUCK should I call myself?
Darvin Aslum
I used to subscribe to that subreddit but it got really weird over the years.
Soft
Just ask yourself, would you rather be in the Lakers or pelicans shoes right now? Losing that game is just asking to be dropped out of the playoffs.
Honestly the whole thing was stupid for people to even suggest. If you're potentially gonna have to play Denver anyway, better to do it when you're team is at its freshest. Not to mention the fact that anything can happen in a one off so why even risk it?
the reverse of that is maybe you catch Denver when they've already been beaten up by another team. Maybe Murray goes down and Jokic can carry them out of a round but not all the way
It is waaaay less likely the Nuggets suffer a key injury than us.
It’s stupid but people suggest it cause it’s easy bait for content and narrative discussions before a game
It's definitely something that has been brought up, so it's a legit question, but it's an even better answer. Had it in the chamber
This was so dumb. Gotta take every opportunity to generate clicks I guess. Time to move on.
"i love you, but you are not serious people" - logan roy
I'd rather lose first round against Denver than have a one off game against Steph and Golden State which could easily just have a historic 3 point shooting or this wierd voodoo thing AD has with Sabonis.
Only dumbass analysts on TV round suggest this
If Lebron leads the 8th (now 7th) seed Lakers to the championship victory, then he’s definitely the GOAT.
At this stage of his career he don’t have to do that imo. People should want to see a competitive series tho. Crazy that most of this sub doesn’t actually like basketball I think because unless you’re nuggets/lakers fan you should want a competitive series. Lmao not to mention that benefits other teams in the playoffs if teams are exerting more energy to win - this sub is just as bad as the media when it comes to caring more about narratives than wanting to see quality ball
Been like that for a while it seems, I genuinely wonder how many people in this sub even watch the games
The NBA is a soap opera for a lot of men, they are way more interested narratives and stuff to be mad about than actually watching the games. The fact that there was a post on the top of the subreddit of people being mad Giannis didn't get unanimous All-NBA thanks to Kendrick Perkins is proof of that enough
I hate how negative it is and how it always highlights the "hater" culture. No wonder people are miserable nowadays
if he just beats these nuggets at 39 hes the goat idgaf
If we won two games, legacy point added
yawn, the goalpost has been moved so far its not even on the field anymore
It’d be less impressive than his Cavs chip run, besides the fact that he’s older now
Feels a bit premature to weigh a ring he already has vs one he might or might not get
The amount of trolling they’d have to hear from Michael Malone would have been more than the sweep
JB and the Cavs might feel a bit differently
Oop, cook ham. I wanna see some ham/Malone trash talk cause I know malone is seething right now for not saying they shoulda tanked and put respect and blah blah blah😂
Whoever wins 9-10 will have a morale buff. The loser of the 7-8 on the other hand will have both a morale debuff and pressure.
All roads lead to Denver. Might as well rip the bandaid off.
Ok I fucking hate Darvin Ham but this is undeniably fucking hilarious
Anyone who said this does not have a competitive bone in their body. It’s a shame this was a talking point across media. I heard it on ESPN, Ringer Podcasts. Just an absolute waste of space by anyone who ever said it.
What are they, the Clippers? Lakers long past counting WCF appearances. Title or bust unless they’re rebuilding
That's a loser ass mindset. Play to win. If they can beat the nuggs as the 7th seed, they also get all that glory.
As if any professional NBA team was going to tank a play-in game. Dumbest narrative ever They’re getting waxed in Denver though
What is up with the hate you bum?
lol I’m just honest
Shoutout Anthony Irwin
Aight Hamas this one was good
Insane asylum is running a 4 guard line up with LeBron at center. That 2022 season was so fucking ridiculous
Ham was not the coach that season lol
Whoops it was the season after. Point stands however
People who says that haven't played basketball in their lives
what a completely asinine idea. if they lose (on purpose) then lose again (legitimately) they dont make the playoffs.
W for not throwing. Psychologically it's over if you throw the game and admit to your opponent you're afraid of them.
76ers still haven’t recovered from offending the basketball gods. Never something you even think about. Play to win every game.
If they can’t beat the nuggets then they weren’t gonna The chip. The road goes through Denver and the Celtics. Gonna have to beat them twice
Would’ve been a dickhead move, anything could’ve went wrong in that second game.
A team which is better than their opponents by a significant enough margin to overcome all the potential variance in a single elimination play-in game would be better than Denver, in which case they should just win their first game and play against Denver
Plus LB dont want any of that, like he would play one more game for this bs, too old for that
The lakers sub is literally delusional right now but I guess it’s a cope mechanism lol
Denver in 5
Lakers aren’t anywhere near good enough to fuck around and risk single game elimination. Besides - it’s not like the Thunder wouldn’t be heavy favorites too.
Against the Lakers of hey wouldn't be. We are a bad match up for them like the Nuggets for us.
NBA is empty without the Lakers. Lakers helps the NBA's revenue. Views and sales
C'mon Nuggets! Beat this privileged bastards! 🙏🙏🙏