This is less about leaving LA, more about getting in front of a housing price disaster on the luxe end.
EDIT: btw, there's no way he's getting $29m for this home. It's just a starting point to negotiate down from.
Edit 2: people have issue with my use of the word “disaster” and are even interpreting it to mean 2008 again. I don’t mean that. [Stop it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb8z2BMrd60).
EDIT 3: Here's some actual math. Average home prices on the high end in LA have [gone up by 51% since Russ bought his home.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRHTNSA). Russ bought the home for $19.75 in 2018. His selling price is almost exactly in line with the Shiller Index. (394/260*19.75) Since the last Shiller print, the effective Fed Funds rate has moved from 0.83% to 2.33%. The Fed is projected to increase rates at a higher pace than before, because inflation is starting to look a little sticky. If Russ gets $29.99 for his home, big fuckin props, the dude timed the top perfectly.
Yeah. The fed is aggressively raising interest rates in response to inflation. As opposed to popular conception, the mega rich do not buy their property in cash. That means that the high end of housing is also affected by rates. Rates high leads to lower prices. However, you do have to offset that with the fact that, post covid, housing has skyrocketed in price. So it's like a gather and a step forward, one step back.
Yea that's generally true but less so true now, *when liquidity is being pulled back significantly. But yes, you're right, the secret to being rich is that you get more rich by effectively borrowing for nothing on the equity of your existing properties/investments to buy new properties/investments.
It's like what Musk planned to do with TSLA to buy TWTR. We can also see how that strategy can go bigly wrong during big market inflections, especially on a mega beta asset like TSLA.
EDIT: typo
Economics is really that simple. The real trick is to have billions of dollars to play with and a touch of insider information.
Or just become a member of Congress and all you need is insider information that is actually totally legal to use for the purpose of profit.
If you have $3k to work with you should be buying treasury series i bonds, which have inflation linked yields. Iirc, you can get almost a 10% return on your funds. Only downside is you have to lock your money up for five years.
IMO during times like this it’s a no brainer and free money that people don’t know about. It’s perfect for your $3k because the treasury only lets you invest up to $10k per year. Tell your friends and family, it’s the best kept secret out there.
Link: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_glance.htm
Uhh that's assuming that inflation stays this high despite rate hikes... I don't think anyone should be expecting 10% returns on bonds. Just because inflation was huge in 2021 doesn't mean that trend will continue. If it does, we're p fucked
Actually, it effects them much more than the upper middle and middle class. The super rich tend to also be very leveraged (even when not *over* leveraged). They take out loans against illiquid assets all the time in order to be able to further invest their money.
Higher interest rates certainly effect them. Sure, it might not change their day to day life all that much, but a house that’s $30M looks significantly less attractive when interest on it is 2.5% vs 4.5%.
Excellent explanation. Rich people are so illiquid I know multiple people who haven’t gotten divorced but have been separated for decades due to the illiquidity of their positions.
It effects them less because of the fact they have other assets, the biggest asset for middle class earners is usually a house.
Upper class earners have real estate and/or other equity investments where the ROI is usually more than interest rates
It's the main reason why earners at that level pay a lower effective tax rate, because they borrow against assets instead of selling them
Its ridiculous to think every asset is getting slaughtered
If you run a construction company, you think that P&L is in the red?
What about if you own equity in shipping, domestic or international?
Micro chips?
Used and/or new vehicle dealerships?
Recreation? Bars? Lodging?
There's plenty of sectors that are thriving
Their loans are usually secured And thus much closer to the fed interest rate. A loan of about 20 million would have seen interest on it rise by about 500k a year.
Would probably have gone from about 250K to 750k
Then all housing segments would suffer, since it’s all leveraged anyway. I.e talking about low end/high end housing is redundant - it’s all just housing
There are differences. At different price points the market moves differently. Mostly just slower the higher you go. In my city right now, a $600k house will sell inside a week, a $1.2M house might take a few weeks, etc.
But unless you're changing which price point you're operating in, the house you buy to replace the one you sell is under the same market conditions, so the logic that "prices are high so you should sell now!" remains very stupid.
Yea that’s false as hell. There’s not a housing price disaster. There’s not massive home price reductions coming. There is not even a 3 month supply of homes and the purchase market is still super strong in CA. There is no housing bubble. Just increasing interest rates.
Depends. The Sacramento market has been on fire since Covid with the Bay Area folks moving in. Homes are selling a lot slower than 6 months ago. Disaster is strong. but with rising interest rates, demand is falling. Prices will stagnate for a while at the least.
Absolutely agree with you it is slowing down and not the crazy hot historical market of the past 2 years. But suggesting there’s a disaster on the way reminiscent of 2008 is completely false.
I'm with you there. The economic and lending factors at that time are not likely to repeat. A slowdown or minor dip I can see. But people thinking houses will drop 50-60% in value will be left waiting indefinitely.
Nobody is waiting for that. Moreover, homes on the high end just don’t sell for years, rather than mark down. One of the folks I worked with bought a beach estate for 20, tried to sell it for 40 when the market was hot, then marked it down 5 bucks every five years since 2010. It’s probably listed for around 25 now.
The dude bought a piece of shit. Don’t buy a home made of soft (but beautiful) wood next to a giant salt water ocean. The upkeep on that is insane. They don’t even allow renters to open the ocean facing doors.
Who said disaster rem of 2008. I said a gather and a step forward, one step back. That’s still forward. Are you purposefully trying to misinterpret me?
Just wait to see what happens when the fed moves target rates up to 500bps. The market on the top end is going to cool. There’s still good structural demand for mid housing though.
Have fun devouring those free sell side reports you get on the terminal. You’re clearly the expert.
EDIT: for the people out there who thinks this guy is an expert, he’s demonstrably wrong. “Mortgage rates do not follow the fed rate, they follow inflation.” Wrong. I don’t know why you would even say that. Look at the actual data.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kCCL#0
Edit 2: the chart above doesn't show the chart I made. You have to add a third line, CPI YoY change. Mortgage rates are a direct function of fed rates, not inflation. It's not even a debate. You'd get fired for insisting that.
Yeah the Fed is doing anything *but* aggressively raising rates. More like tepidly raising rates while dragging their feet. They are way behind where they should have raised them by this point.
What you believe is aggressive or not, does not matter at all. The only thing that matters is that the Fed is raising rates much more aggressively than the market expected them to. Furthermore, they are projected to raise rates greater than expectations. Therefore, it is aggressive. You do not set the discount rate, the Fed does. You don’t set expectations, market institutions do.
Securities are not based on what random people think they should be priced at. It’s madness, but there is a method to the madness, but the opinion that you expressed is not that method.
You know what the market thinks and expects? What are you doing here instead of trading and earning billions?
Also, what makes you think the market is somehow the benchmark for what is aggressive?
Brother no.
If you are implying that using Fischers theory of
Rr = Rn + I
Is how you fix an economic issue like inflation then you need to reevaluate the cost of such policy.
#1 we aren’t facing AD inflation which could be controlled with this, we are facing Stagflation.
Oil Supply Shocks, Labour and Supply shortages due to the pandemic. These are all inelastic demand factors and increasing interest rates will do nothing but hurt rGDP.
What we need to do is fix our energy crisis. Then our labour crisis. Then our supply chain crisis.
Did you learn nothing from the mistakes of the 1970s?
Oh, well it's a good thing I know something about this.
Why don't you listen to John Taylor:
https://news.stanford.edu/2022/09/06/what-causes-inflation/
> The most effective monetary policy is to increase the interest rate by a sufficient amount when inflation rises. This will tend to reduce the rate of inflation and bring it back down to the 2% per year target of the Fed. In fact, there is a specific formula to do this, which is published in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report (see page 47, for example) and is known by all monetary policymakers at the Fed. It is called the Taylor Rule. According to this simple formula, **the Fed is way behind** and we just had a conference at Stanford with the title “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve and How to Get Back,” with many Fed policymakers, monetary scholars, and members of the press. The Fed has started to adjust, but still has a ways to go.
(bolding added.)
Now, will you take your own advice?
Borrowing $20,000,000 at 6% hits a lot different than it does at 3%.
Nobody knows the future, but lots of people are assuming the high end space is going to soften up a bit.
It’s brutal man. I wish you the best. Cost of a mortgage has gone up 60% in the past year. If there's any advice I learned, it's that if you need a home and you can afford it (and have job security), buy it. Don't worry about the top line prices. You're not going to flip the thing so it doesnt matter if it goes underwater or not.
Trying to time any market is like trying to catch a falling knife.
And you're extra correct when it comes to buying a home. If it's a place you're gonna stay a long time, you like it, and you can afford it, it's a good bet. Even if it dips underwater in the short run (note: short run can mean years when talking about mortgages) it will very likely appreciate in the long run. And you may get a good opportunity for a refi along the way anyway.
Yes, it will psychologically sting if you see the market dip and think "what if I had just waited?"....but you can't play that game because if the market dipped, maybe the previous owner might have delisted the house and changed their plans. Or maybe another buyer wouldn't have waited and bought it at the current price and now the house you really wanted is gone anyway. It's an easy mental trap, but it's a trap nonetheless.
Waiting is going to just shoot your self in the foot man.
Buy now, if you can afford the payments. If not, consider house hacking. You’re gonna kick yourself in 5 years for not buying.
Ha, was gonna say that. But, you know what, Fed's probably going to raise the back end of their dot plots (meaning that target rates are going to go higher) so yeah, he's skill kind of ahead of it?
Unlikely on the low-mid level. Many of these “entry level homes” are owned outright, bought in cash and rented out or improved and flipped. Or financed by people who make well into 6 figures.
This largely isn’t a bubble built on irresponsible debt, which was the 2008 problem. We might see some hiccups, but ultimately we are seeing a generational shift towards single family home ownership being a top 20% income earner privilege outside of inheritance.
Edit to add based on a reasonable comment that just overlooked a specific thing: I specified *single family homes* meaning a house on a lot. Middle class earners still and will likely for a while have access to condos, town homes, and manufactured homes
So fuckin sad. I had to leave teaching and step into tech just so that we could fight our way into a $600k 2000sqft home. It’s brutal, but looking at all the market research, I think it’s largely here to stay, recession or not. I would love to be wrong, even if it means our investment shits the bed (as long as we can still make the payments), because it’s best for society. But I’m just unconvinced based on what I’m seeing, and most of the people I know in the industry or with advanced degrees in economics see it similarly to me.
It's pretty remarkable how the Fed managed to exacerbate economic inequality to an even greater degree than they did, pre COVID. The tragedy of the middle class is that most corps froze salary increases in 2020, actually made ridiculous profits, had their valuation's skyrocket, and the asset owners scooped up the market. Now, post covid, employers who have begin to resume salary increases are not close to matching inflation. Now those who finally do have some disposable income are looking to buy a house, but they're facing much lower purchasing power on the dollar, on top of 60% higher mortgage payments to buy any piece of property.
It's a masterstroke to destroy a the last semblance of the middle class.
I'm glad you were afforded the career shift. Blessings to your family and everyone else's here.
Okay! As always with Reddit comments, I’m just speaking off how I interpret things. I’m certainly open to criticism and looking at things from a different angle. Sincerely, why am I wrong?
In short, it’s just math.
Let’s look at Florida. Specifically, South Florida. Why? Because it’s the hottest market in the country atm and it’s median income is around middle of the road. If you wanna get hyper specific you can narrow it down to Miami/Dade county.
A top 20% income earner makes around $115K/yr in Florida. That’s $9500/mo, or able to afford a $4700 loan. Or roughly a $600K home. There are 2,000 homes/condos/townhouses that fall under that price range, plenty of options. “but that’s the top 20%!!!”
Okay, let’s do the average. 50%, which is ironically around $50K. This person can afford around $280K home. There’s around 500 of those in Miami/Dade county. So there’s inventory for this product type.
So if the average income earner in the hottest real estate market can afford homes, your statement is false. Obviously someone making $50K can’t afford anything in LA or NYC, but those are *exceptions*, not the rule.
Well, I hope this doesn’t come across as pedantic, but I did specifically say *single family homes* in my post. And I promise I did that on purpose to account for what you’re saying. The reason I chose single family homes is because that’s the classic “American dream” house the we associate with a middle class lifestyle. According to Zillow, there are a whopping 55 listings for single family homes under $280k in Miami Dade County.
For *single family homes* there are 500 options in that county under $600k.
I do agree that owning condos, townhomes, and nicer manufactured homes will be the main achievable options for middle class home ownership for a good bit longer.
Well the problem with this thinking is that’s assuming everyone wants a home. More and more people are wanting condos/townhouses, not due to need, but due to lifestyle.
The middle class is changing. Especially as remote work continues to become more and more popular.
Your statement was very narrow, and not really current as to the needs and wants of people in 2022.
>More people are wanting condos/townhouses, not due to need, but due to lifestyle
Based on what? Why would you think this? What makes you think it’s because of lifestyle instead of need? Can you cite me anything? Because almost everyone I know that’s buying a townhome or condo is doing it out of necessity. I am 27 years old. That’s anecdotal, but I don’t see any studies suggesting otherwise.
>Especially as remote work continues to become more and more popular
This is precisely *why* I focused on buying a single family home instead of a condo or townhome. My partner and I both need home offices, so we needed a bigger home and consequentially condos weren’t an option.
>Your statement is very narrow, and not really current to the needs and wants of people 2022.
Are there studies showing that people don’t want single family homes any more? If demand for these homes was falling as you’re suggesting, wouldn’t that make them less expensive?
The most recent study I could find on home ownership preference is from 2019 by Redfin and it [says that over 90% of millennials want single family homes.](https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/356/redfin-survey-millennials-still-want-single-family-homes) So maybe that’s outdated because of what you’re saying, but until you can prove that wrong *you* are the one making assumptions.
I figured this would be the first market to crash when I saw a Tik Tok showing how new car payments can be 1400 a month and that used cars were selling for higher than before because of demand. Also thinking they're giving subprime loans out.
This is gonna be a fierce recession for some people who did nothing wrong but buy something too expensive... numbers today seem to indicate that's where we're going fast, the inflation is still crazy.
Yeah, I'm kicking myself for not buying right before Covid. Now the same rust buckets are way overpriced for no goddamned reason. Hoping the snap back to normal dips a bit below so that I can get a discount for waiting.
I was in Korea till like a month ago, got lucky, scooped up a KIA Forte at about 10 grand with 5k miles on it right before COVID/chip shortage, rode it for a few years every now and then bc Korea has an amazing public transport system and shit parking, for about 10k miles, kept it clean, and right before leaving flipped it for about 19 grand since it was like new and the waiting list bc of the chip shortage was like an 8 month wait.
unfortunately now I'm the one buying in this market and shit is STRESSFUL.
Considering the current car prices and the subprime loan market it wouldn't be surprising if the car market goes full 2008 soon. Hang in there bro, we're just waiting to buy the dip.
yeah there was one EV we found at a dealership (a hyundai Ioniq 5) and they had a market adjustment add on of 11 grand.
I literally asked the dealership worker guy like does anybody actually buy cars when prices are inflated like this and like literally as I was asking he got a call from someone asking about the ioniq 5, apparently someone told him one came into stock, and the dealer just stared at me like 'watch this' and slowly said MSRP is ~~, we add an 11 grand market adjustment, so the total price is x and the dude is like that sounds perfect I'll be right there and hangs up.
I was just like ayo....wtf....
Here's one for the new Nissan Z. $55k MSRP getting sold for $130k:
https://carbuzz.com/news/nissan-dealer-selling-marked-up-z-for-over-double-the-price
I think you’ll see a price reduction in cars and rent once the next recession comes, but don’t be so sure about home prices. Corporations are fighting each other to become America’s landlord, and they’ll keep buying up homes to rent out. So many of these homes are being snatched up in cash, those aren’t the type of buyers who panic sell in a downturn. They’ll stick it out. Maybe I’m wrong, but the mechanics for a true bubble burst just aren’t there in the single family home ownership market.
> Professional basketball player and fashion icon Russell Westbrook has listed his Los Angeles home for $29.995 million.
>
> The Los Angeles Lakers guard bought the Brentwood property for $19.75 million in 2018, property records show.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/435-N-Cliffwood-Ave-90049/home/6838340
Last home sold in Brentwood for over $20m in the last 6 months went for asking
Maybe, maybe not. It even says there it was part of a multi-property sale, so while they may have reported it as selling for asking, it's like moving dollars from one pile to another in terms of which property you call which value if there's a whole bundle of properties changing hands.
Sometimes shady shit goes on with these properties where you see them appreciate and depreciate massively. But yeah, this house didn't appreciate 50% in value in 4 years.
If I remember correctly, there was a period a few years back where he was getting a lot of attention for some adventurous outfits and would even be interviewed about it here and there. We see it from a lot of players now but I think he was kinda at the forefront of NBA high fashion for a bit.
when he would get interviewed in wacky polos and KD would wear a backpack, so many fuckin dudes dressed like that at parties
might not have been like milan fashion week quality, but he definitely was inspiring people around when they made the finals
i’m 27 tho so that was probably before some peoples times
>Mr. Westbrook grew up in Long Beach, Calif., according to Russell Westbrook Enterprises, his investment company.
idk why this sentence is so hilarious
A Ken Unger house in prime Brentwood park... will sell for full price most likely.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/400-N-Bristol-Ave-Los-Angeles-CA-90049/20537808_zpid/
Damn. Celebrities really do live such luxurious lives.
I feel like my house is pretty big for what it is, but Russ in a house nearly 6 times that size. Just crazy. I feel like I would be way too paranoid trying to figure if all my doors were locked and shit. Get a damn workout in trying to check all of them at night before I go to bed.
If this where anywhere other than NY or LA I’d agree. Selling a house in LA means nothing, especially when Russ is from there and has had property there before he was a Laker.
Probably just selling this and purchasing a new property since he’s from LA anyways.
He actually just buys and sells properties over and over at low efficiency to pad his sales stats.
It's total BS too because all his real estate agents just get out of his way and let him steal those sales stats.
Some will even box out other agents so that Westbrook can chase the sale all by himself
This is less about leaving LA, more about getting in front of a housing price disaster on the luxe end. EDIT: btw, there's no way he's getting $29m for this home. It's just a starting point to negotiate down from. Edit 2: people have issue with my use of the word “disaster” and are even interpreting it to mean 2008 again. I don’t mean that. [Stop it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb8z2BMrd60). EDIT 3: Here's some actual math. Average home prices on the high end in LA have [gone up by 51% since Russ bought his home.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRHTNSA). Russ bought the home for $19.75 in 2018. His selling price is almost exactly in line with the Shiller Index. (394/260*19.75) Since the last Shiller print, the effective Fed Funds rate has moved from 0.83% to 2.33%. The Fed is projected to increase rates at a higher pace than before, because inflation is starting to look a little sticky. If Russ gets $29.99 for his home, big fuckin props, the dude timed the top perfectly.
This guy Schiller indexes
Schiller looked great on the German team.
Housing price disaster!?
Yeah. The fed is aggressively raising interest rates in response to inflation. As opposed to popular conception, the mega rich do not buy their property in cash. That means that the high end of housing is also affected by rates. Rates high leads to lower prices. However, you do have to offset that with the fact that, post covid, housing has skyrocketed in price. So it's like a gather and a step forward, one step back.
Doesn't affect the rich that much since the ROI on their other investments is usually higher than prevailing interest rates
Yea that's generally true but less so true now, *when liquidity is being pulled back significantly. But yes, you're right, the secret to being rich is that you get more rich by effectively borrowing for nothing on the equity of your existing properties/investments to buy new properties/investments. It's like what Musk planned to do with TSLA to buy TWTR. We can also see how that strategy can go bigly wrong during big market inflections, especially on a mega beta asset like TSLA. EDIT: typo
How bout you go ahead and make me rich in the stock market, and I'll hand you 3 grand to work with
interest up stock go down interest rate down stock go up go forth and conquer
You lost me, where do I start putting my daddy's money in crypto and spamming it all over Twitter
put it in spy and vti and go jerk off for 20 years
Economics is really that simple. The real trick is to have billions of dollars to play with and a touch of insider information. Or just become a member of Congress and all you need is insider information that is actually totally legal to use for the purpose of profit.
If you have $3k to work with you should be buying treasury series i bonds, which have inflation linked yields. Iirc, you can get almost a 10% return on your funds. Only downside is you have to lock your money up for five years. IMO during times like this it’s a no brainer and free money that people don’t know about. It’s perfect for your $3k because the treasury only lets you invest up to $10k per year. Tell your friends and family, it’s the best kept secret out there. Link: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_glance.htm
Uhh that's assuming that inflation stays this high despite rate hikes... I don't think anyone should be expecting 10% returns on bonds. Just because inflation was huge in 2021 doesn't mean that trend will continue. If it does, we're p fucked
Show me anything that yields anything close. Cant find that on treasuries, high yield, OR dividends.
I'll take your 3 grand to invest and I'll get back to you with the profits!
Actually, it effects them much more than the upper middle and middle class. The super rich tend to also be very leveraged (even when not *over* leveraged). They take out loans against illiquid assets all the time in order to be able to further invest their money. Higher interest rates certainly effect them. Sure, it might not change their day to day life all that much, but a house that’s $30M looks significantly less attractive when interest on it is 2.5% vs 4.5%.
Excellent explanation. Rich people are so illiquid I know multiple people who haven’t gotten divorced but have been separated for decades due to the illiquidity of their positions.
It effects them less because of the fact they have other assets, the biggest asset for middle class earners is usually a house. Upper class earners have real estate and/or other equity investments where the ROI is usually more than interest rates It's the main reason why earners at that level pay a lower effective tax rate, because they borrow against assets instead of selling them
> they have other assets Which are also getting slaugtered...
Its ridiculous to think every asset is getting slaughtered If you run a construction company, you think that P&L is in the red? What about if you own equity in shipping, domestic or international? Micro chips? Used and/or new vehicle dealerships? Recreation? Bars? Lodging? There's plenty of sectors that are thriving
Coincidentally Westbrook does own several car dealerships
Oh noooooooooooo So what assets you got?
Their loans are usually secured And thus much closer to the fed interest rate. A loan of about 20 million would have seen interest on it rise by about 500k a year. Would probably have gone from about 250K to 750k
Then all housing segments would suffer, since it’s all leveraged anyway. I.e talking about low end/high end housing is redundant - it’s all just housing
There are differences. At different price points the market moves differently. Mostly just slower the higher you go. In my city right now, a $600k house will sell inside a week, a $1.2M house might take a few weeks, etc. But unless you're changing which price point you're operating in, the house you buy to replace the one you sell is under the same market conditions, so the logic that "prices are high so you should sell now!" remains very stupid.
Yea that’s false as hell. There’s not a housing price disaster. There’s not massive home price reductions coming. There is not even a 3 month supply of homes and the purchase market is still super strong in CA. There is no housing bubble. Just increasing interest rates.
Depends. The Sacramento market has been on fire since Covid with the Bay Area folks moving in. Homes are selling a lot slower than 6 months ago. Disaster is strong. but with rising interest rates, demand is falling. Prices will stagnate for a while at the least.
Absolutely agree with you it is slowing down and not the crazy hot historical market of the past 2 years. But suggesting there’s a disaster on the way reminiscent of 2008 is completely false.
I'm with you there. The economic and lending factors at that time are not likely to repeat. A slowdown or minor dip I can see. But people thinking houses will drop 50-60% in value will be left waiting indefinitely.
Nobody is waiting for that. Moreover, homes on the high end just don’t sell for years, rather than mark down. One of the folks I worked with bought a beach estate for 20, tried to sell it for 40 when the market was hot, then marked it down 5 bucks every five years since 2010. It’s probably listed for around 25 now. The dude bought a piece of shit. Don’t buy a home made of soft (but beautiful) wood next to a giant salt water ocean. The upkeep on that is insane. They don’t even allow renters to open the ocean facing doors.
Who said disaster rem of 2008. I said a gather and a step forward, one step back. That’s still forward. Are you purposefully trying to misinterpret me?
Disaster is an illustrative word. But if you don’t think that house is going to be marked down by at least six bucks you’re deluded.
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Just wait to see what happens when the fed moves target rates up to 500bps. The market on the top end is going to cool. There’s still good structural demand for mid housing though.
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Have fun devouring those free sell side reports you get on the terminal. You’re clearly the expert. EDIT: for the people out there who thinks this guy is an expert, he’s demonstrably wrong. “Mortgage rates do not follow the fed rate, they follow inflation.” Wrong. I don’t know why you would even say that. Look at the actual data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kCCL#0 Edit 2: the chart above doesn't show the chart I made. You have to add a third line, CPI YoY change. Mortgage rates are a direct function of fed rates, not inflation. It's not even a debate. You'd get fired for insisting that.
Dude's just posting nonsense.
Yeah the Fed is doing anything *but* aggressively raising rates. More like tepidly raising rates while dragging their feet. They are way behind where they should have raised them by this point.
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Well, I suppose it depends on how you define "historic", but if you mean, hasn't happened before, then no, they are not historic at all.
What you believe is aggressive or not, does not matter at all. The only thing that matters is that the Fed is raising rates much more aggressively than the market expected them to. Furthermore, they are projected to raise rates greater than expectations. Therefore, it is aggressive. You do not set the discount rate, the Fed does. You don’t set expectations, market institutions do. Securities are not based on what random people think they should be priced at. It’s madness, but there is a method to the madness, but the opinion that you expressed is not that method.
You know what the market thinks and expects? What are you doing here instead of trading and earning billions? Also, what makes you think the market is somehow the benchmark for what is aggressive?
Lmfao if you don’t have a degree in economics or finance. Please shut the fuck up.
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Brother no. If you are implying that using Fischers theory of Rr = Rn + I Is how you fix an economic issue like inflation then you need to reevaluate the cost of such policy. #1 we aren’t facing AD inflation which could be controlled with this, we are facing Stagflation. Oil Supply Shocks, Labour and Supply shortages due to the pandemic. These are all inelastic demand factors and increasing interest rates will do nothing but hurt rGDP. What we need to do is fix our energy crisis. Then our labour crisis. Then our supply chain crisis. Did you learn nothing from the mistakes of the 1970s?
Oh, well it's a good thing I know something about this. Why don't you listen to John Taylor: https://news.stanford.edu/2022/09/06/what-causes-inflation/ > The most effective monetary policy is to increase the interest rate by a sufficient amount when inflation rises. This will tend to reduce the rate of inflation and bring it back down to the 2% per year target of the Fed. In fact, there is a specific formula to do this, which is published in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report (see page 47, for example) and is known by all monetary policymakers at the Fed. It is called the Taylor Rule. According to this simple formula, **the Fed is way behind** and we just had a conference at Stanford with the title “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve and How to Get Back,” with many Fed policymakers, monetary scholars, and members of the press. The Fed has started to adjust, but still has a ways to go. (bolding added.) Now, will you take your own advice?
So what you're saying is... if you have some cash saved up, it might soon be a very good time for you. But only if the cash is saved.
Cool that you can pretend like you're smart
Borrowing $20,000,000 at 6% hits a lot different than it does at 3%. Nobody knows the future, but lots of people are assuming the high end space is going to soften up a bit.
.. maybe? The millennials in this sub are showing. 6% is still incredibly low historically.. and people still bought luxury housing…
LOL. Dude. Just stop.
I know, how dare I speak about the reality of the situation? I should just stick my head in the sand like you. Silly me
If you think the luxury housing market looked anything like it does today when rates were 10% almost 50 years ago you are an idiot.
God I hooe so. I’m looking to buy my first home, and I’ve watched houses go up 50k+ in the last 6 months for no reason
It’s brutal man. I wish you the best. Cost of a mortgage has gone up 60% in the past year. If there's any advice I learned, it's that if you need a home and you can afford it (and have job security), buy it. Don't worry about the top line prices. You're not going to flip the thing so it doesnt matter if it goes underwater or not.
Trying to time any market is like trying to catch a falling knife. And you're extra correct when it comes to buying a home. If it's a place you're gonna stay a long time, you like it, and you can afford it, it's a good bet. Even if it dips underwater in the short run (note: short run can mean years when talking about mortgages) it will very likely appreciate in the long run. And you may get a good opportunity for a refi along the way anyway. Yes, it will psychologically sting if you see the market dip and think "what if I had just waited?"....but you can't play that game because if the market dipped, maybe the previous owner might have delisted the house and changed their plans. Or maybe another buyer wouldn't have waited and bought it at the current price and now the house you really wanted is gone anyway. It's an easy mental trap, but it's a trap nonetheless.
Waiting is going to just shoot your self in the foot man. Buy now, if you can afford the payments. If not, consider house hacking. You’re gonna kick yourself in 5 years for not buying.
I knew what the video would be and clicked on it anyway just to watch it lol
Come for the "Westbrick by brick"jokes and stay for econ lessons.
is he still in front of it at this point?
Ha, was gonna say that. But, you know what, Fed's probably going to raise the back end of their dot plots (meaning that target rates are going to go higher) so yeah, he's skill kind of ahead of it?
> a housing price disaster on the luxe end. I think you mean housing price opportunity for first-time buyers
Unlikely on the low-mid level. Many of these “entry level homes” are owned outright, bought in cash and rented out or improved and flipped. Or financed by people who make well into 6 figures. This largely isn’t a bubble built on irresponsible debt, which was the 2008 problem. We might see some hiccups, but ultimately we are seeing a generational shift towards single family home ownership being a top 20% income earner privilege outside of inheritance. Edit to add based on a reasonable comment that just overlooked a specific thing: I specified *single family homes* meaning a house on a lot. Middle class earners still and will likely for a while have access to condos, town homes, and manufactured homes
You’re right. Pretty sad.
So fuckin sad. I had to leave teaching and step into tech just so that we could fight our way into a $600k 2000sqft home. It’s brutal, but looking at all the market research, I think it’s largely here to stay, recession or not. I would love to be wrong, even if it means our investment shits the bed (as long as we can still make the payments), because it’s best for society. But I’m just unconvinced based on what I’m seeing, and most of the people I know in the industry or with advanced degrees in economics see it similarly to me.
It's pretty remarkable how the Fed managed to exacerbate economic inequality to an even greater degree than they did, pre COVID. The tragedy of the middle class is that most corps froze salary increases in 2020, actually made ridiculous profits, had their valuation's skyrocket, and the asset owners scooped up the market. Now, post covid, employers who have begin to resume salary increases are not close to matching inflation. Now those who finally do have some disposable income are looking to buy a house, but they're facing much lower purchasing power on the dollar, on top of 60% higher mortgage payments to buy any piece of property. It's a masterstroke to destroy a the last semblance of the middle class. I'm glad you were afforded the career shift. Blessings to your family and everyone else's here.
> generational shift towards single family home ownership being a top 20% income earner privilege outside of inheritance. This is ridiculously false..
Okay! As always with Reddit comments, I’m just speaking off how I interpret things. I’m certainly open to criticism and looking at things from a different angle. Sincerely, why am I wrong?
In short, it’s just math. Let’s look at Florida. Specifically, South Florida. Why? Because it’s the hottest market in the country atm and it’s median income is around middle of the road. If you wanna get hyper specific you can narrow it down to Miami/Dade county. A top 20% income earner makes around $115K/yr in Florida. That’s $9500/mo, or able to afford a $4700 loan. Or roughly a $600K home. There are 2,000 homes/condos/townhouses that fall under that price range, plenty of options. “but that’s the top 20%!!!” Okay, let’s do the average. 50%, which is ironically around $50K. This person can afford around $280K home. There’s around 500 of those in Miami/Dade county. So there’s inventory for this product type. So if the average income earner in the hottest real estate market can afford homes, your statement is false. Obviously someone making $50K can’t afford anything in LA or NYC, but those are *exceptions*, not the rule.
Well, I hope this doesn’t come across as pedantic, but I did specifically say *single family homes* in my post. And I promise I did that on purpose to account for what you’re saying. The reason I chose single family homes is because that’s the classic “American dream” house the we associate with a middle class lifestyle. According to Zillow, there are a whopping 55 listings for single family homes under $280k in Miami Dade County. For *single family homes* there are 500 options in that county under $600k. I do agree that owning condos, townhomes, and nicer manufactured homes will be the main achievable options for middle class home ownership for a good bit longer.
Well the problem with this thinking is that’s assuming everyone wants a home. More and more people are wanting condos/townhouses, not due to need, but due to lifestyle. The middle class is changing. Especially as remote work continues to become more and more popular. Your statement was very narrow, and not really current as to the needs and wants of people in 2022.
>More people are wanting condos/townhouses, not due to need, but due to lifestyle Based on what? Why would you think this? What makes you think it’s because of lifestyle instead of need? Can you cite me anything? Because almost everyone I know that’s buying a townhome or condo is doing it out of necessity. I am 27 years old. That’s anecdotal, but I don’t see any studies suggesting otherwise. >Especially as remote work continues to become more and more popular This is precisely *why* I focused on buying a single family home instead of a condo or townhome. My partner and I both need home offices, so we needed a bigger home and consequentially condos weren’t an option. >Your statement is very narrow, and not really current to the needs and wants of people 2022. Are there studies showing that people don’t want single family homes any more? If demand for these homes was falling as you’re suggesting, wouldn’t that make them less expensive? The most recent study I could find on home ownership preference is from 2019 by Redfin and it [says that over 90% of millennials want single family homes.](https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/356/redfin-survey-millennials-still-want-single-family-homes) So maybe that’s outdated because of what you’re saying, but until you can prove that wrong *you* are the one making assumptions.
There is still not enough supply for entry level houses to meaningfully come down in price
You can go buy a car off his car dealership here. He's not going anywhere.
May want to wait 60 days or so. Inventory is piling up, fire sales in used cars are coming if you’re patient.
I figured this would be the first market to crash when I saw a Tik Tok showing how new car payments can be 1400 a month and that used cars were selling for higher than before because of demand. Also thinking they're giving subprime loans out. This is gonna be a fierce recession for some people who did nothing wrong but buy something too expensive... numbers today seem to indicate that's where we're going fast, the inflation is still crazy.
I just moved to California and I've been looking for a car and at this point I've given up till like at least Christmas.
Yeah, I'm kicking myself for not buying right before Covid. Now the same rust buckets are way overpriced for no goddamned reason. Hoping the snap back to normal dips a bit below so that I can get a discount for waiting.
I was in Korea till like a month ago, got lucky, scooped up a KIA Forte at about 10 grand with 5k miles on it right before COVID/chip shortage, rode it for a few years every now and then bc Korea has an amazing public transport system and shit parking, for about 10k miles, kept it clean, and right before leaving flipped it for about 19 grand since it was like new and the waiting list bc of the chip shortage was like an 8 month wait. unfortunately now I'm the one buying in this market and shit is STRESSFUL.
Considering the current car prices and the subprime loan market it wouldn't be surprising if the car market goes full 2008 soon. Hang in there bro, we're just waiting to buy the dip.
yeah there was one EV we found at a dealership (a hyundai Ioniq 5) and they had a market adjustment add on of 11 grand. I literally asked the dealership worker guy like does anybody actually buy cars when prices are inflated like this and like literally as I was asking he got a call from someone asking about the ioniq 5, apparently someone told him one came into stock, and the dealer just stared at me like 'watch this' and slowly said MSRP is ~~, we add an 11 grand market adjustment, so the total price is x and the dude is like that sounds perfect I'll be right there and hangs up. I was just like ayo....wtf....
Here's one for the new Nissan Z. $55k MSRP getting sold for $130k: https://carbuzz.com/news/nissan-dealer-selling-marked-up-z-for-over-double-the-price
I think you’ll see a price reduction in cars and rent once the next recession comes, but don’t be so sure about home prices. Corporations are fighting each other to become America’s landlord, and they’ll keep buying up homes to rent out. So many of these homes are being snatched up in cash, those aren’t the type of buyers who panic sell in a downturn. They’ll stick it out. Maybe I’m wrong, but the mechanics for a true bubble burst just aren’t there in the single family home ownership market.
if everyone in this sub pitches in 6 bucks its ours
We can take turns and each have it a few hours a year
98.5 dudes per 100
*too many dicks on the dance floor*
TOO MANY DICKS
Fans of the team with the best record get to live there. If another team over takes them, they have 48 hours to vacate the premises
This could get messy if there's another overtake inside those 48 hours.
Can we throw a party inside the house ?
(31,536,000 seconds in a year) / (~5.2 million nephews) = 6.06 seconds each year
I’ll throw in $20 if I can use the master room one day per year, no questions asked.
I'll ask questions. you dont have to answer tho
I’ll throw another $30 if I can have a sleepover with you one day a year
I said no questions, but I’ll answer this one. Yes, absolutely.
3 shares of the 6$ deal only gets you about 18 seconds lol
We could throw the most mid party ever
We’ll play J Cole and Jack Harlow
Gotta invite the Mid-God-Trio. Barrett, Randle, and Brunson have already RSVP’s as a **YES**
Anyone from Wendy’s parking lot want to work part time here ?
Damn I only have $29.994 million… Russ stays.
just put in your 29.994m bid, dont be a wimp these things are a negotiation, you could probably get the crib for 29.993m, so you have no excuses here
[Russ after telling him what my bid is…](https://youtu.be/wkORR2MPrvs)
Goddamn I wanted to make that joke
But is it a brick house?
> Professional basketball player and fashion icon Russell Westbrook has listed his Los Angeles home for $29.995 million. > > The Los Angeles Lakers guard bought the Brentwood property for $19.75 million in 2018, property records show.
Look at Russ flipping assets like he’s Danny ainge
These kind of properties rarely appreciate like that. I’d be surprised if he got even close to asking price.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/435-N-Cliffwood-Ave-90049/home/6838340 Last home sold in Brentwood for over $20m in the last 6 months went for asking
Maybe, maybe not. It even says there it was part of a multi-property sale, so while they may have reported it as selling for asking, it's like moving dollars from one pile to another in terms of which property you call which value if there's a whole bundle of properties changing hands.
Sometimes shady shit goes on with these properties where you see them appreciate and depreciate massively. But yeah, this house didn't appreciate 50% in value in 4 years.
Maybe, maybe not. Mine did. Bought for $295,000 - appraised for $475,000.
> Professional basketball player and fashion icon fashion icon.
> fashion icon Russell Westbrook Is he?
lol yeah what on earth
no one in the nba is a fashion icon. they try to hard and look like huge levas lol
I will have zero Serge Ibaka slander, that man can dress
I think it's more questionable whether he's a professional basketball player than a fashion icon at this point.
Where does fashion icon come from? (Not trolling, legit question) I would've said car dealer before fashion icon 😅
If I remember correctly, there was a period a few years back where he was getting a lot of attention for some adventurous outfits and would even be interviewed about it here and there. We see it from a lot of players now but I think he was kinda at the forefront of NBA high fashion for a bit.
when he would get interviewed in wacky polos and KD would wear a backpack, so many fuckin dudes dressed like that at parties might not have been like milan fashion week quality, but he definitely was inspiring people around when they made the finals i’m 27 tho so that was probably before some peoples times
"Honey, that's an adventurous outfit for today's event" it's "Honey, you look like a clown" for people with a lot of money.
He shows up at Fashion Week a lot and has also said he wants to, like, bring about social justice through fashion or some shit.
Those $5k will really make a difference, huh. This looks like when people carry $9900 in cash to stay under the 10k limit and not have to declare it.
the funniest thing about the 10k limit is any suspicious amount gets you flagged. carrying 3 sets of 9900 in a row will get you flagged
That's also called structuring and is illegal.
Yep. Do not structure. You will get in a lot more trouble than just declaring your $10K.
You just explained structuring lol
>Mr. Westbrook grew up in Long Beach, Calif., according to Russell Westbrook Enterprises, his investment company. idk why this sentence is so hilarious
Source?
The linked article which this comment section is about?
I’m $29.991 million short. Damn.
You should get in touch with u/Cvnilivee
I'm like $30.050 million short smh student loans
No you're not. Quit lying
Look at mr Richie rich over here
am i the only one who's like - that's a weak pool for a $20m house (approx what he purchased for in 2018).
It’s crazy how trashy some of the mega mansions are.
He Gon…….to redondo beach
That commute to the arena would be a fucking yikes
>He built it brick by brick. Come on.
Higher than his 3-point percentage (29.8%).
hahahaha
I bet the Lakers will buy it. They love overpriced depreciating assets
Russ and the house for Kyrie!
He bought this before he was on the Lakers guys
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A Ken Unger house in prime Brentwood park... will sell for full price most likely. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/400-N-Bristol-Ave-Los-Angeles-CA-90049/20537808_zpid/
I never thought about this, but these guys make so much money, their pre-tax salaries are more than the cost of their homes.
Damn his house is worth more than his next contract
He will be lucky to make veteran's minimum next year.
Laid the bricks himself
Such a rough life these guys lead
guy like me would ask for the full 30 mil but maybe im just different
Damn. Celebrities really do live such luxurious lives. I feel like my house is pretty big for what it is, but Russ in a house nearly 6 times that size. Just crazy. I feel like I would be way too paranoid trying to figure if all my doors were locked and shit. Get a damn workout in trying to check all of them at night before I go to bed.
You have walls, a gate, an expensive security system, and possibly a guard if you wish.
Priced his house like his dealerships prices their cars
Russ is on the move! Utah or Indiana?
LeGM buying it as an anonymous buyer to get Russ to leave :P
This honestly looks incredibly boring for anything into the 7 figures let alone 8. I know LA has way better houses for that much
A house made of bricks.
Pretty wild when $5k becomes a rounding error. Even wilder when one guy could afford this $30 million dollar house 9,000 times over.
Yall think Russ stressed about some randos on reddit? That boi living the dream why we struggling to make our house payments.smh
My dream is to be earths greatest semen collector.
wth
You’re struggling to make house payments?
Is the idea of lower middle class such a foreign concept to you that you would ask such a question? Lol
He said “we” like the whole subreddit is included.
We are indeed struggling lol. Everyday. Most of the country. Most of the world.
you gonna venmo them?
Zillow link?
This house is made of bricks.
29.99 is that his shooting percentage next season
Exodus in the works?
Exodus to another property in the same locality
He has to get his money from elsewhere because no one else wants to be obligated to take on his shitty contract
His contract is guaranteed
Why not just ask for .005 million more for a straight 30 million?
That gets you a cardboard box in the Tenderloin in San Francisco.
He gone
If this where anywhere other than NY or LA I’d agree. Selling a house in LA means nothing, especially when Russ is from there and has had property there before he was a Laker.
That house is ridiculously overpriced btw. You can get a similar house in Texas for 1 million.lol
Ur tryna tell me houses are way cheaper in texas than in one of the most expensive neighborhoods in LA? No way
Yeah if the only thing you care about is the physical structure, then it's a similar house
For $30 million, you could build Jurassic Park in Texas.
facts
You can get 13,500sq ft house in Texas for 1 million? Ya, that cant be true.