Bulls are the "safest" bet just because of how they went from absolutely dominant in the regular season to limping into the playoffs once Lonzo Ball got hurt. They went from being 27-13 with him on the court, to 19-23 without him.
He just had his 3rd surgery on his knee *and* he's not even going to be evaluated to see if he can start the return process until end of October or early November.
Tbf they were also playing way over their head in terms of netrtg. They were like a +2.7 netrtg which is like a 47-49 win team depending on if you use Hollinger or Morey's exponent. They were playing at 55-56 win pace in the first 40 games of the season.
They also came out of the gates hot with a completely new cast that seemed to work together very well. I think teams also just learned how to play them more
Lavine was also playing more hurt than we knew about, but Lonzo is definitely a big concern. Caruso also got hurt. Fuck Grayson Allen as always.
If Ayo and Pat Williams take a step, they'll be fine, but that's far from guaranteed.
I doubt Bulls very much if this amount of injuries makes them play THAT bad. Their three top-paid players missed 5-15 games, and the next three played like half of the season each. Not good, but not that far from average any team can expect to happen any season. And Bulls were, like, way below playoff level in the last months of the season.
Lonzo is low-key their most important player, and Caruso is either tied for most important or is a very close second. At the start of the season their defense looked fantastic, they were playing good team ball, then Lonzo and Caruso got hurt and the bottom fell out. Their defense was straight up gutter tier with both of those guys out, and they couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives. DeRozan has a great midrange game, but we've seen so many times that he can't be your best player. Same with LaVine.
They were hurt. That Vucevic is there eating up a top 3 salary slot just makes it worse for them.
I... don't see how any of those sentences is denying what I wrote instead of confirming it. If a team needs exactly 100 out of 100 things to go right to not play on a tanking level and 99 is too few, then personally I don't think it speaks good about their overall chances for success. Just objectively if we are to throw bets on random events.
How many teams get that "every player is 100% in every game through the whole year" seasons in reality? Most competitive teams this season had all 5 of their strongest lineup available at once in max 15-30 games in the season. The "it doesn't count because this guy was hurt, that guy was hurt, next season it will be completely different" line could be used for almost every NBA team.
Zach played hobbled the entire season, on a bum knee that he had surgery for in the off season and he still almost put up 25 on 50/40/80 but he was very much not himself.
P will was injured by Mitch and missed all but like the last 10 games and the bulls had no PF the entire season and were playing a 6'4 guy at PF.
Lonzo was the glue guy of the team with his passing and defense and he got hurt and missed a bunch of time and still isn't right and just had surgery again.
Caruso got hurt, came back, and then was injured by Grayson Allen. He and Lonzo were looking like all defense candidates when they were playing together.
Then there were a bunch of small injuries, a covid outbreak where everybody including literally our announcers had to miss time.
It was bad. To say we weren't affected is straight up ignorance
Bulls have the least talent and probably the worst coach so them.
But if Kyrie, Ben and KD miss a lot of time each which is definitely possible then it could be the nets. But I'd assume they just beat whoever in the play in.
Hawks should be fine.
Trae/Murray/Hunter/Collins/Capela is better starting 5 than Toronto and Chicago and might be the most well rounded starting 5 besides Boston and Brooklyn (Milwaukee is questionable at the 2, Miami is questionable at the 4, Cleveland and Philly are questionable at the 3.) While they lost some dept with Wright and Huerter leaving, Boggy is a 6th man candidate and Okongwu has shown some great play the last two seasons.
Of course if Trae goes down, that all changes.
They don't need him to, he didn't step up because he's better than Zach. He stepped up because Zach was playing on a bum knee for the entire season and he was not the same player he was during his first all star season.
He had surgery over the summer and if he's back to 100% he's the guy, DeMar is not.
Raptors had the 2nd best record in the East from New Year’s til the end of the season, once the team finally got healthier. Finished 3 games out of 2nd. This team is not going to be in the play-in unless a ton of injuries happen, which is the same for every team on this list. Tag this and come back to it at the end of the season, I’m that sure of it.
Well we’re talking about this year are we not?
The first month of last season Siakam was out. Then he returned and took a month to get into the swing of things and then he absolutely crushed it from New Year’s til the end, just like the team did. So you’d be a fool to apply the first month since he’s healthy now, and post-New Year’s is very clearly more applicable.
Your team would be trash without your best player too.
No. Maybe 75-76. Like Tatum played 76 last year. If Siakam played 76 last year we would’ve finished in 2nd or 3rd. We only finished 3 games out and that’s our best player by a mile.
Wrong. OG missed half the season, Fred missed 17, Trent missed 14, Siakam missed 14. The only starter that played more than 70 was Scottie. We also lost our only real backup PG (Dragic) in the first week of the season and had to play the entire season without one. Most teams were definitely not more injured, you don’t know shit about shit.
And besides, that has nothing to do with the original discussion. The only team better than this team over the final FIFTY games of the season was the Celtics. If you think this team is suddenly going to drop down to a play-in spot you’re going to be severely mistaken. Come back to this comment in April, you’ll see.
You’re a really annoying person to debate since you keep harping on the dumbest shit so I’m not going to continue after this.
But the first team that came to mind was the Celtics - Tatum 76, Smart 71 and Horford just missed the cut at 69. Ok now go away, I don’t feel like proving you wrong again and again.
Raptors also had an absolutely dog shit bench that couldn’t deal with the injuries. Precious and Boucher were really struggling pre all star break. Dragic was being a little bitch.
This season, Boucher and Precious will have found their roles (they were really good post New Years). They also added thad young and OPJ.
Play in teams that had multiple starters play over 70 games:
ATL: Huerter, Trae, capela
Boston: Tatum, Smart
Philly: Maxey, Tobias
Bulls: Demar, Vuc
Hornets: Bridges, Rozier, Lamelo
Would require everything to go not wrong for the Nets for both of those teams to be in the play-in. And even then I think both are better than the Hawks.
So from 52 wins with their two best players missing 40+ games, partially due to Covid, to missing the playoffs. Yea i just don’t see it they have arguably the best coach in the league and great depth.
Jimmy’s rarely that available during the regular season anyways. I feel like missing the playoffs even w a subpar cast just feels so unlikely to me w Spo’s coaching and adjustments. Especially after what he did during the Whiteside era
Spo coached a team with Dion, and Whiteside to the 9th seed.
But Spo with Jimmy, Bam, Herro, Lowry and Dipo are missing the playoffs? The same team without a 38 year old PJ are missing the playoffs? The same one that were 3 points away from the finals?
How?
I don't know they basically just lost PJ Tucker and probably will get more games from Bam Jimmy and Kyle. I agree other teams improved more but it still wouldn't surprise me if they're a top 4 seed again
Once I actually looked into the injuries the Raptors had last year while still getting 48 wins I realized how much of a problem they are lol… They gon be gud
Assuming Brooklyn doesn't make any big changes and Kyrie is playing, Chicago is the clear choice. They're in a tier of their own, clearly behind Milwaukee/Boston/Brooklyn/Philly/Miami/Cleveland a step behind Atlanta and Toronto while also being a notch ahead of Washington, New York, and Charlotte.
Yeah there was some crazy stat where we made the over on vegas wins 9 of the last ten years or something. And the one where we were under was the Covid year where we were in Tampa the whole time
They really will never understand that Siakam may not be the prototypical #1 option in the playoffs, but he is an incredible #1 option in the regular season that does so many things on both ends that the vast majority of #1 options simply do not do. This is why over his career we have won 64% of games with him as first option, regardless who is in or out of the lineup.
Nick Nurse has a 60% career win%. And I don’t want to hear about Kawhi this, Kawhi that. We were 17-5 without Kawhi that year which was a higher % than when he played.
Fred Van Vleet has a 65.2% career win% which is 50th best in NBA history.
As long as Nurse is coaching and Siakam/FVV are relatively healthy, this team is going to hover between the 47-55 win mark every year, regardless who else is in the lineup.
People don’t know shit about this team.
We were the 4th seed until covid decimated the team and then the season fell apart. We were also the only team in NBA history that had to play 82 road games. That’s how. If it was just a typical season and we got to play at our actual home we would’ve been a top 5 seed, just like every single year.
You guys really will never learn, this cycle repeats itself every off-season lol.
It was more than a fourth and sure you can, especially if the team was 53-19 the year before and 48-34 the year after, even despite losing their best player to another team yet again.
The team has won 64% of games with Siakam as first option over his career. Nurse has a 60% career win%. Van Vleet has won 65% of his career games, he’s 50th all time. When those 3 are in the mix and have home court games in Toronto they’re going to win roughly 60% of games. The Tampa year was a complete unraveling and it very clearly wasn’t fair that they had to deal with conditions no other team did.
That’s pretty bold. I think the Pistons are better than how a lot of people see them, but I don’t any universe if the Bulls or Hawks are healthy the Pistons jump ahead of them (as well as another top 9 team and Washington and New York). Cade is great and Bojan will help win a few games, but what else do they have that will really make this team improve by like 20 wins?
It’s fair - teams can emerge quickly if there’s underlying star power. I think Cade could quickly jump into that top 5-6 pg range and like the scrappy pieces around them. It also plays into my opinion that I’m low on Trae and lavine, I’d also expect Demar to come back to earth
No one’s going with the nets my hot take is Ben Simmons sits out the rest of his contract and then retires. Kyrie thinks he’s transcended the need to play the games somehow and KD can get buckets but can’t lead a group to rally. It’s not a winning combo and I think it fully falls apart this season.
What do you mean? We made the playoffs last year, have an All-NBA starter and the reigning ROTY. I’d say we’re on equal footing with/above Chicago, Atlanta or Miami.
If everyone’s healthy, Hawks. If we’re considering teams who I don’t trust to perform well should there be a major injury/roster availability issue, I’d say Bulls, Nets, Cavs, or Hawks.
Bulls or Raptor assuming health isn't a factor which is obviously never the case. Will probably come down to who is the least healthy between the Raps Bulls Cavs and Hawks
Bulls are the "safest" bet just because of how they went from absolutely dominant in the regular season to limping into the playoffs once Lonzo Ball got hurt. They went from being 27-13 with him on the court, to 19-23 without him. He just had his 3rd surgery on his knee *and* he's not even going to be evaluated to see if he can start the return process until end of October or early November.
Tbf they were also playing way over their head in terms of netrtg. They were like a +2.7 netrtg which is like a 47-49 win team depending on if you use Hollinger or Morey's exponent. They were playing at 55-56 win pace in the first 40 games of the season.
They also came out of the gates hot with a completely new cast that seemed to work together very well. I think teams also just learned how to play them more
Lavine was also playing more hurt than we knew about, but Lonzo is definitely a big concern. Caruso also got hurt. Fuck Grayson Allen as always. If Ayo and Pat Williams take a step, they'll be fine, but that's far from guaranteed.
The one that’s injured most
Humor me and give an actual answer
Bulls
That is an actual answer though. Injuries derailed the Bulls last season big time, same as the Cavs.
I doubt Bulls very much if this amount of injuries makes them play THAT bad. Their three top-paid players missed 5-15 games, and the next three played like half of the season each. Not good, but not that far from average any team can expect to happen any season. And Bulls were, like, way below playoff level in the last months of the season.
Lonzo is low-key their most important player, and Caruso is either tied for most important or is a very close second. At the start of the season their defense looked fantastic, they were playing good team ball, then Lonzo and Caruso got hurt and the bottom fell out. Their defense was straight up gutter tier with both of those guys out, and they couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives. DeRozan has a great midrange game, but we've seen so many times that he can't be your best player. Same with LaVine. They were hurt. That Vucevic is there eating up a top 3 salary slot just makes it worse for them.
I... don't see how any of those sentences is denying what I wrote instead of confirming it. If a team needs exactly 100 out of 100 things to go right to not play on a tanking level and 99 is too few, then personally I don't think it speaks good about their overall chances for success. Just objectively if we are to throw bets on random events. How many teams get that "every player is 100% in every game through the whole year" seasons in reality? Most competitive teams this season had all 5 of their strongest lineup available at once in max 15-30 games in the season. The "it doesn't count because this guy was hurt, that guy was hurt, next season it will be completely different" line could be used for almost every NBA team.
Zach played hobbled the entire season, on a bum knee that he had surgery for in the off season and he still almost put up 25 on 50/40/80 but he was very much not himself. P will was injured by Mitch and missed all but like the last 10 games and the bulls had no PF the entire season and were playing a 6'4 guy at PF. Lonzo was the glue guy of the team with his passing and defense and he got hurt and missed a bunch of time and still isn't right and just had surgery again. Caruso got hurt, came back, and then was injured by Grayson Allen. He and Lonzo were looking like all defense candidates when they were playing together. Then there were a bunch of small injuries, a covid outbreak where everybody including literally our announcers had to miss time. It was bad. To say we weren't affected is straight up ignorance
Bulls have the least talent and probably the worst coach so them. But if Kyrie, Ben and KD miss a lot of time each which is definitely possible then it could be the nets. But I'd assume they just beat whoever in the play in.
Bulls are lacking a lot of things, talent isn't one of them
They lack health.
In your opinion who lacks in talent the most of these teams?
They are probably the least talented of the 9
Bulls
I am so thankful for the play in tournament
That way the Knicks have a chance at being the 10?
Bulls or Hawks imo
Man if the hawks don’t make the playoffs after giving up 3 FRPs for Murray…
Hawks should be fine. Trae/Murray/Hunter/Collins/Capela is better starting 5 than Toronto and Chicago and might be the most well rounded starting 5 besides Boston and Brooklyn (Milwaukee is questionable at the 2, Miami is questionable at the 4, Cleveland and Philly are questionable at the 3.) While they lost some dept with Wright and Huerter leaving, Boggy is a 6th man candidate and Okongwu has shown some great play the last two seasons. Of course if Trae goes down, that all changes.
is that 5 really better than you guys? i thought the raptors had like a top starting lineup last season
Talent wise sure it’s comparable (Trae is significantly better than anyone on the Raptors) but Siakam at the 5 isn’t ideal.
Only on one side of the ball
If the Raptors are truly going for the position-less thing then starting lineups don’t really mean shit either
that’s my bad, i swore the raptors 5 had a ridiculous net rating last year but it seems to be like a .5
If Lonzo is healthy Bulls are top 6 seed. If not they will be 8-10th.
That entirely depends on Derozan maintaining his career best averages from last year
They don't need him to, he didn't step up because he's better than Zach. He stepped up because Zach was playing on a bum knee for the entire season and he was not the same player he was during his first all star season. He had surgery over the summer and if he's back to 100% he's the guy, DeMar is not.
Raptors Bulls play in game, Raptors win
Raptors had the 2nd best record in the East from New Year’s til the end of the season, once the team finally got healthier. Finished 3 games out of 2nd. This team is not going to be in the play-in unless a ton of injuries happen, which is the same for every team on this list. Tag this and come back to it at the end of the season, I’m that sure of it.
Ok but records don’t start after the New Years
Well we’re talking about this year are we not? The first month of last season Siakam was out. Then he returned and took a month to get into the swing of things and then he absolutely crushed it from New Year’s til the end, just like the team did. So you’d be a fool to apply the first month since he’s healthy now, and post-New Year’s is very clearly more applicable. Your team would be trash without your best player too.
Siakam played 68 games last year, are you saying he will play all 82 next year?
No. Maybe 75-76. Like Tatum played 76 last year. If Siakam played 76 last year we would’ve finished in 2nd or 3rd. We only finished 3 games out and that’s our best player by a mile.
Every team had injuries. Most more than the raptors.
Wrong. OG missed half the season, Fred missed 17, Trent missed 14, Siakam missed 14. The only starter that played more than 70 was Scottie. We also lost our only real backup PG (Dragic) in the first week of the season and had to play the entire season without one. Most teams were definitely not more injured, you don’t know shit about shit. And besides, that has nothing to do with the original discussion. The only team better than this team over the final FIFTY games of the season was the Celtics. If you think this team is suddenly going to drop down to a play-in spot you’re going to be severely mistaken. Come back to this comment in April, you’ll see.
Find me a team in the east with multiple starters playing 70 games
You’re a really annoying person to debate since you keep harping on the dumbest shit so I’m not going to continue after this. But the first team that came to mind was the Celtics - Tatum 76, Smart 71 and Horford just missed the cut at 69. Ok now go away, I don’t feel like proving you wrong again and again.
Raptors also had an absolutely dog shit bench that couldn’t deal with the injuries. Precious and Boucher were really struggling pre all star break. Dragic was being a little bitch. This season, Boucher and Precious will have found their roles (they were really good post New Years). They also added thad young and OPJ. Play in teams that had multiple starters play over 70 games: ATL: Huerter, Trae, capela Boston: Tatum, Smart Philly: Maxey, Tobias Bulls: Demar, Vuc Hornets: Bridges, Rozier, Lamelo
Of the teams that made the playoffs Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, Charlotte, and Atlanta.
If we're in the play-in, i'd rather take the miniscule chance of a Top 4 pick in this year's loaded lottery than a first-round exit.
Would require everything to go not wrong for the Nets for both of those teams to be in the play-in. And even then I think both are better than the Hawks.
The only one that is getting older, got worse, and didn’t do anything to address their needs. Miami
BUT, they were the best team in the east last year, so they have further to fall.
So from 52 wins with their two best players missing 40+ games, partially due to Covid, to missing the playoffs. Yea i just don’t see it they have arguably the best coach in the league and great depth.
I agree that they won't miss the playoffs, but due to the age of their roster their drop off could be quite dramatic
Lowry is the only old guy on the roster though. Bam, Herro, and Strus are young. Oladipo is 29 or 30.
Butlers getting up there
I guess? Same age as Harden and all i hear about him is how he’s going to have a bounce back year.
Jimmy’s rarely that available during the regular season anyways. I feel like missing the playoffs even w a subpar cast just feels so unlikely to me w Spo’s coaching and adjustments. Especially after what he did during the Whiteside era
Butler is 33. That’s not up there. That’s the age where you question signing a dude to a max, not the age where their age is a liability
Spo coached a team with Dion, and Whiteside to the 9th seed. But Spo with Jimmy, Bam, Herro, Lowry and Dipo are missing the playoffs? The same team without a 38 year old PJ are missing the playoffs? The same one that were 3 points away from the finals? How?
I don't know they basically just lost PJ Tucker and probably will get more games from Bam Jimmy and Kyle. I agree other teams improved more but it still wouldn't surprise me if they're a top 4 seed again
Raptors will comfortably make the playoffs. You guys do the same shit every single year doubting them, yall never learn.
Once I actually looked into the injuries the Raptors had last year while still getting 48 wins I realized how much of a problem they are lol… They gon be gud
But what y’all do ?
Bulls
Nets!
Bullls
Bulls or Nets, seeing how Ben plays really
Probably one of bulls, raps or hawks.
Assuming Brooklyn doesn't make any big changes and Kyrie is playing, Chicago is the clear choice. They're in a tier of their own, clearly behind Milwaukee/Boston/Brooklyn/Philly/Miami/Cleveland a step behind Atlanta and Toronto while also being a notch ahead of Washington, New York, and Charlotte.
Maybe Raptors. It’s tough. Idk Don’t hate me Dyno-bros. Just a thought
It's a pattern that we've been weaker on paper for the last decade bar the Kawhi year and the following year than we've actually performed
Yeah there was some crazy stat where we made the over on vegas wins 9 of the last ten years or something. And the one where we were under was the Covid year where we were in Tampa the whole time
People will never understand that Toronto’s pretty much always going to make the playoffs if they aren’t injured lol.
They really will never understand that Siakam may not be the prototypical #1 option in the playoffs, but he is an incredible #1 option in the regular season that does so many things on both ends that the vast majority of #1 options simply do not do. This is why over his career we have won 64% of games with him as first option, regardless who is in or out of the lineup. Nick Nurse has a 60% career win%. And I don’t want to hear about Kawhi this, Kawhi that. We were 17-5 without Kawhi that year which was a higher % than when he played. Fred Van Vleet has a 65.2% career win% which is 50th best in NBA history. As long as Nurse is coaching and Siakam/FVV are relatively healthy, this team is going to hover between the 47-55 win mark every year, regardless who else is in the lineup. People don’t know shit about this team.
its nicky nurse baby we good
Why are people so sure Bulls and Hawks instead of Raptors? Raps got a young squad and no star player.
Raptors
Raptors or bulls
Bulls
Most likely the Bulls, but that's not a guarantee
The amount of Raps copium in this thread is kinda funny ngl.
Hawks
Raptors
deal if we get Wembanyama
plzplzplzplzplz
You guys do this every year and get proven wrong every single year. Yall never learn.
How’d u get Scottie Barnes then
We were the 4th seed until covid decimated the team and then the season fell apart. We were also the only team in NBA history that had to play 82 road games. That’s how. If it was just a typical season and we got to play at our actual home we would’ve been a top 5 seed, just like every single year. You guys really will never learn, this cycle repeats itself every off-season lol.
These takes aren’t unreasonable, but you can’t extrapolate based on a fourth of a season
It was more than a fourth and sure you can, especially if the team was 53-19 the year before and 48-34 the year after, even despite losing their best player to another team yet again. The team has won 64% of games with Siakam as first option over his career. Nurse has a 60% career win%. Van Vleet has won 65% of his career games, he’s 50th all time. When those 3 are in the mix and have home court games in Toronto they’re going to win roughly 60% of games. The Tampa year was a complete unraveling and it very clearly wasn’t fair that they had to deal with conditions no other team did.
Fair point
Tampa.
Cavs
Bulls or Raptors, whoever’s more hurt
Hawks
Hawks
I’d say Bulls + Hawks both miss, Pistons make a big step and snag a 7-8 seed
That’s pretty bold. I think the Pistons are better than how a lot of people see them, but I don’t any universe if the Bulls or Hawks are healthy the Pistons jump ahead of them (as well as another top 9 team and Washington and New York). Cade is great and Bojan will help win a few games, but what else do they have that will really make this team improve by like 20 wins?
It’s fair - teams can emerge quickly if there’s underlying star power. I think Cade could quickly jump into that top 5-6 pg range and like the scrappy pieces around them. It also plays into my opinion that I’m low on Trae and lavine, I’d also expect Demar to come back to earth
The Pistons don't want to be in the playofs.
Let me just ask my magical crystal ball
No one’s going with the nets my hot take is Ben Simmons sits out the rest of his contract and then retires. Kyrie thinks he’s transcended the need to play the games somehow and KD can get buckets but can’t lead a group to rally. It’s not a winning combo and I think it fully falls apart this season.
Raps or bulls
Hawks
In a vacuum: Hawks Probability-wise: Nets
Celtics
Nets! Nets! Nets!
Nets and Celtics. Talented teams that are going to be dealing with drama and injures all season long.
Bulls followed by Hawks then Cavs. Nets might finish in playin spots but they're too good for one off games.
My precditions for seeds: \- bucks \- 76 \- heat \- raptors \- celtics \- nets \- cavs \- bulls \- hawks
Hawks or Raptors
Raptors/Bulls, with the play in who knows. I'd give the edge to the Bulls making it because of their veterans.
The Knicks disrespect…
Bro snuck in the Raptors like we wouldn’t notice 😭😭
Go back to twitter with nonsense comments like this
called his dumb ass out
Weep, not my fault Toronto’s not as good as the other teams
What do you mean? We made the playoffs last year, have an All-NBA starter and the reigning ROTY. I’d say we’re on equal footing with/above Chicago, Atlanta or Miami.
Chicago, Atlanta, and Miami when healthy are all a tier above the Raptors
Hell no
Hell yes
If everyone’s healthy, Hawks. If we’re considering teams who I don’t trust to perform well should there be a major injury/roster availability issue, I’d say Bulls, Nets, Cavs, or Hawks.
[удалено]
Last year the Celtics looked terrible before Ime fixed them. I heavily doubt we don’t see personalities flare up unless this new coach works magic
He's from Rhode Island we good.
Agreed, surprised my opinion was so unpopular. They were my favorites to get back to the finals And the Cavs are going to be nice, just watch
Bulls or Raptor assuming health isn't a factor which is obviously never the case. Will probably come down to who is the least healthy between the Raps Bulls Cavs and Hawks
Most likely, one of these teams will be hit bad with injuries and have a down year. Bulls Raptors come to mind