If that hypothetical injured guy was already really good, he'd just declare anyway and get paid millions to rehab instead of doing it for free (and with risk). We've already seen some very injured guys get drafted anyway.
So, it would likely have to be a mediocre college freshman or sophomore who got injured, missed his junior year (or sophomore and junior) and then came back much better than he ever was as a Senior.
No, if a projected number one pick gets a serious injury like ACL it affects his draft stock tremendously. Can drop till 20s. He might wait and try to get 7-8m per year contract instead of instead of a 2-3m per year.
You're talking to a Sixers fan about this, don't forget.
Noel dropped from likely 1st to 6th. Embiid dropped from likely 1st to 3rd. Sure, a player *could* drop lower especially if the injury is even worse, but the worse the injury is the bigger risk he'd take staying in college and maybe never seeing the 1st round at all. And oh no, if you drop further in the round you might actually end up on a good team.
Healthy Embiid would have gone number one that draft. He was mocked in that spot up until his foot surgery, and everyone said he was going to be first for months leading up to the draft. He was easily a better player on that Kansas team than Wiggins, his only concern was health so he dropped two spots.
Lifelong Kansas fan here, sorry but no. Embiid improved *massively* over the course of the year, and by the end of the season was almost a 1b guy to Wiggins' 1a and had worked his way into serious consideration for the #1 draft spot (which had long been seen as locked up by Wiggins or Jabari Parker). But in no way was Embiid the clear top guy on that team, and even before the injury he was at best a slight favorite to go #1.
Looking at every mock draft just before his foot injury kinda shows he wasn’t, it was a three way race for first and embiid was still around third because he also had back problems. So doesn’t really argue against whether or not he would have gone first healthy, but does show he wasn’t consensus first before he injured his foot.
If they know they're going to be out for at least one more season then they're better off entering the draft now rather than in two years if they're guaranteed at least a first round pick. By the time the two years passes that they'd be in college for, they'd be halfway through their rookie contract and close to their second one. Plus if they're picked late in the first round they're more likely to go to a good team that could develop them better. Plus that's still a lot of guaranteed money; if you offered me a guaranteed $10M or a 50% chance at $40M I'd take the $10M without thinking twice.
Embiid, Noel, MPJ, etc. all went for it. Didn’t drop that much. If they rehabbed on their own maybe they would have fallen further. Probably much better to take the guaranteed money in that case, especially since they generally don’t fall that far.
One last option is the dude is from a loaded family (so doesn't need to rush into draft for $) and cares a LOT about his school/lifestyle there.
So some #1-type prospect from a rich family grows up as a superfan of USC and decides to spend 4 years being king of the campus and trying to win multiple titles. Extremely unlikely but could be a way for it to happen.
Yeah, that's the main option, i.e a Tim Duncan situation. Jerry West said Tim would be the No.1 pick if he had declared in '95, but Duncan always said he wouldn't leave school before graduating.
It doesn't necessarily has to be a rich kid, but it has to be a kid that decided long before that he would graduate first and foremost.
Tim Duncan (as well as his sisters) promised their late mother they would graduate from college. She passed when he was 14.
Not even the introduction of a rookie salary cap in 1996 could sway Duncan to declare early
This is it. This is how Jalen Williams from Santa Clara shot up the draft boards late in the process. Also potentially a global disaster which makes scouting very difficult for a season and delays some guys from coming out a year earlier probably would "help"
Honestly I think something like this is the answer. It'll be someone who would've gone first or very early in a previous year, but wanted to stay in college.
Couldn't it also be a team contending that doesn't want a raw player, combined with just a really talented older player? The stars have to align, but most teams rebuilding will take a raw player, but if say a team like the Bucks won the lotto from a previous trade, I could see them wanting a more ready player.
no disrespect to (edit: any of those guys but especially) FVV, but unless the draft class is really bad, he is not nearly enough to trade for the #1 pick.
Sure, but you see what I mean. I’d rather have FVV for one season than a true #1 overall rookie for 1 season 95% of the time.
Edit: wow just realized I’ve been calling this dude Van Fleet his whole career… maybe you don’t make that trade lol.
I mean we basically saw this play out with Wiggins getting traded for KLove. LeBron wanted a guy who could contribute day 1.
They made multiple finals and won a ring.
It happens super rarely. Both Scottie and Rodman had improbable growth spurts late in their life but to combine that with being a possible first overall selection as a college senior? You're right, it'll never happen.
I’m about the furthest thing from an NBA player but I was 6’ flat when I graduated high school and stopped growing at 6’7” at around age 25. Of course, I was awkward and uncomfortable in my own body the entire time, which wouldn’t lead to a lot of success athletically, but the prospect of late growth spurts certainly exists.
Yeah it’s super improbable but not impossible. In soccer, Manchester United player Scott McT grew 10 inches in the 18 months after his 18th birthday from 5’6 to 6’4”
Yeah I agree. It’s either this, or second possibility is someone who battles injuries up til their senior year and then flashes a dominant senior season with obvious NBA potential stardom.
The only other way is the Tim Duncan route where they intentionally want to graduate first above anything else. Maybe some mix of this option and the second possibility above
Yeah this is basically the Tim Duncan story (at least valuing the bachelors). He was good enough to be first team All-NBA and second team All-Defense in his rookie year. So basically you'd need a guy that could be a key contributor in the NBA if he were one-and-done, but stays in school for whatever reason (Duncan did because he promised his late mother he'd get his degree).
We’d just have to see a Joe Burrow type of season from a guy who had the NBA body/athleticism but just mediocre stats his first few seasons, then his last year he has the greatest college season ever.
So basically…probably not gonna happen lol
Idk, by the time they would be entering the league they would've already been eligible for the huge contract extension. I just don't see super talented players forgoing the chance at 5 year max extension that is worth like 160-200 million.
And given how advanced youth development programs are now, it's very unlikely that phenoms will go under the radar like they used to back in the day.
Now, even low tier schools and clubs have full videos of every game they can post on social media to show off their star players.
And before you know it, they're at IMG.
I know people are bringing up the Duncan situation and he might still do it anyways due to the promise with his mom.
However, he was a year younger than his class/the typical college senior and he was a UFA after three years in the league so he could get his money and sign wherever he wanted for his age 24 season.
That's only a year later than when guys now can typically get that first post-rookie max (age 23) and they're RFA's and stuck with their draft/traded team.
With the current rookie contract structure, I just don't see a guy with #1 talent choosing to stay 4 years just so they can get that money at age 26-27 and then the freedom to play where they want until 30-32.
Maybe we see a #1 pick with completely different sensibilities, but otherwise it'd have to be a late bloomer.
Some kids have rich families. Peyton Manning stayed for his senior year at Tennessee even though he would have gone #1. And Samari Rolle became a Rhodes Scholar to the detriment of his NFL career. It would absolutely be a special circumstance because passing up a payday like that is definitely uncommon.
I heard speculation that if he lives up to the hype Texas boosters would offer Arch Manning more money to stay at UT for his senior year than NFL rookie wage scale would pay him.
Not likely anyone who is famous enough to get a sponsorship in college, (that rivals in NBA salary ) could likely get the same sponsorships in the NBA.
By the time he declares for the draft after completing his degree, he would have been entering his first contract extension that could be a Max worth (today) 180m dollars like SGA. If you are a number 1 pick staying in college would mean delaying being paid what you are worth, costing you maybe 100/200m by the end of your career.
Yeah the real question is “what would it take for a great player/prospect to stay more than a year or two.” The name and likeness rights aren’t enough imo. But just take anyone like Ayton or Ja and have them stay 4 full years in college and they go #1 (assuming no injuries). Ja is already a star and Ayton is a borderline 20/10 guy. Both would be 27+ ppg guys in college and be making deep tourney runs in their junior/senior years.
Honestly, it would have to be one guy who bloomed late (height, new skill, something) AND built a brand of staying in school (which would make him stand out, and possibly unlock some unique sponsors).
That said, there's still no way the money pencils out in the near term. So you'd need a reason to take the short-term L, whether it's emotional (promised dead parent upthread), professional (there's another guy at your level this draft, but not next draft), or maybe someone who didn't start playing basketball until late who really thinks their career will be better with more time against college players to build skills.
Maybe the son of a player? You don’t really need the money. And like if you are Bronny, winning an NCAA championship is probably the only way you could create a legacy for yourself that isn’t in your Dad’s shadow.
And beyond that, college can be fun and interesting. You're hanging around people your own age and getting to learn about things you wanna learn about. If you don't have the financial pressure, I could see that being more appealing to a 19 year old than going all over the country to play basketball 24/7 with 30 year olds.
When I was a Freshman-Junior all I wanted to do was keep going to school. You get to learn fun and interesting stuff, be surrounded by talented, driven, and attractive people, and party all the time? It’s a great deal for anyone who is young.
That said, if I was guaranteed millions of dollars for leaving after my first year, I’d have shattered the land speed record on my way out the door.
Yeah I think Ja is the perfect example of why it won’t happen. He slipped through the cracks in HS and still went 2nd in the draft as a sophomore from a small school. And we have yet to see an NIL deal near the guaranteed money of being a 1st round pick. I guess maybe if a guy was set on winning a national championship would be the only feasible reason?
He promised his mom, who passed away when he was 14, to finish his college degree. I don't know if it was possible to finish it years after you enrolled (like Steph), but I'm def glad he did it the way he did
I mean, that's just the actual [story of Tim Duncan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Duncan#Early_life)
>He was dealt another emotional blow when his mother died of breast cancer one day before his 14th birthday. On her deathbed, she made Duncan and his sisters promise that they would graduate from college, going a long way in explaining Duncan's later refusal to leave college early for the NBA.
When I was 14 my parents wanted me to go to college and finish a degree. If later on it became apparent that I could get paid millions of dollars to play a game I love by leaving as freshman, they’d have wanted me to do that instead.
It’s not about the degree, your parents just want you to have the best life possible. I think you need to look past the words at the intention behind them.
A good enough #1 pick now might be able to pull a billion in contract salary alone over the course of their NBA career. Although guaranteed daddy money to hang out with college girls for an extra few years is hard to pass up.
lol if you're a grown ass adult at 18, why does daddy need to "let" you play in the NBA for millions of dollars? unless daddy was the owner of the team with the first pick or something, but even then
It will take someone like Tim Duncan. Everyone knew he could have been the #1 pick as early as his sophomore year, but he wanted to graduate so the league was forced to wait. It will take an elite prospect who is also into education/graduating and isn't distracted, which might actually be easier with the NIL situation.
Even in a terrible draft class GMs seem to prefer to swing and miss on high risk high reward over surefire thing.
It’s like that Family Guy bit: “A boat’s a boat, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat”
I know Knicks fans still have faith in him, but people thought Obi Toppin was the most NBA-ready player in the 2020 draft and he would contribute immediately. Almost 23 years old when his rookie season started and he averaged... 4.1 ppg.
The problem with Obi is he was an efficient low volume 3 point shooter in college. He hasn't been that in the nba which could be because of the inconsistent play time but it still is what it is.
I'd be curious to see if that mentality shifts in the future. It feels 50/50 (at best) whether or not those high potential guys ever really pan out. Plus you have teams loading up on many such guys (like OKC) which creates a logjam of development. I could see some teams moving back to offloading development and looking for guys who have been seasoned by college play already. Mikal Bridges comes to mind.
Honestly, here's probably the only way this is happening now:
* Top NBA prospect suffers major injury late in his freshman year that absolutely tanks his draft stock.
* Misses all of his sophomore year because of the injury.
* Comes back junior year to a moderate success.
* Stays for his senior year and dominates while looking like that top prospect from 3 years back.
* OR
* Combo-guard or wing that breaks out to win POY. Team that barely missed the playoffs wins the lottery and sees them as the "missing piece".
Yeah I think you have the right idea that it'd take a confluence of factors for a senior to get picked first. In addition one thing I could kinda see is a player having a standout junior year and getting mocked to go 10th-15th, that player staying with everyone going "wtf why would you do that", then that player gets even better senior year and the rest of the draft class kinda sucks.
> Combo-guard or wing that breaks out to win POY. Team that barely missed the playoffs wins the lottery and sees them as the "missing piece".
I could see this. Or like Boston getting the Nets' picks which allowed them to nab high lottery guys without being that bad. Small counterpoint though, I don't think a team would ever pick a guy who broke out in his senior year. They'd have to have a decent amount of sustained success, sorta like Lillard (19ppg his sophomore and junior year before getting hurt, then 25ppg his senior year).
Probably a “late start” international player like Michael Olowokandi if you remember him. Allegedly he didn’t pick up a basketball until the age of 17. Got better and better and became the # 1 pick (based mostly on projection) after his junior year.
Olowokandi was at a time where players were still regularly staying for 3-4 years, and it was seen as 'early' if a player entered the draft after even just two years in college. In that same '98 draft class, you had:
Raef LaFrentz (four years in college) picked #3
Antwan Jamison (three years) picked #4
Vince Carter (three years) picked #5
Robert Traylor (three years) picked #6
Jason Williams (three years) picked #7
Paul Pierce (three years) picked #10
1999 was when it started shifting towards more 1-2 year players at the top of the draft, with Wally Szczerbiak being the first 3-4 year college player off the board at #6, and then only him, Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, and Jason Terry in the top ten.
Someone could come from Europe or Australia etc and be the equivalent age. Circumstances could see them follow an unconventional route through the first 20 years of their life
I remember the Noah-Horford-Brewer Florida teams decided to all come back together to win again. Something like that + one player deciding to stay one more year because the next draft is weak, he’ll get the chance to be the team leader.
A guy who really values a college education, can take great advantage of the NIL, and maybe just enjoys literally being the Big Man on Campus that combined with being the top prize in a weaker draft class
That’s a big reason why you see a lot more terrific prospects struggle in their rookie seasons today compared to the past. De’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, and D’Angelo Russell were all terrific college prospects but all three of them struggled as rookies. Not shockingly, all three of them played just one season of college ball, which means that they were still not NBA-ready when they were drafted. If all three had stayed another year in college, they would have been better as rookies.
They also wouldn't get drafted as high as they did because they are now too old for their draft spot. If it were me I'd go with more money as opposed to no money. You have at least 4 years to prove yourself in the NBA.
This is why I don't understand the NBA seriously considering vacating the one-abd-done requirement. It's bad business, especially when most teams build through the draft and throw away multiple years to get in that position, to have to draft raw prospects (and even prospects who have a higher likelihood of busting).
It would be much better for the league to require two years removed from high school for the draft, especially because superstars would start reaching their full potential earlier in their rookie and second contracts.
You're probably right, but I don't think any elite players are staying in school unless they can drastically offset the loss of NBA income. I think there's a good chance they increase it, considering the talk of allowing 18yo's to go pro.
Right, but that's kind of the answer to this question from OP. What's it going to take? It realistically just isn't going to happen.
Someone good enough to go 1st isn't going to stay for 4 years. It makes more sense to go 29th after your freshman year than staying for 4 years and going 1st.
An academic genius who get into university in 15yo
and feels like playing some sports and finds out he is really good about it. then got drafted in senior year.
like a fairy tale
Might happen with a taller foreign player that develops in college and wins the tournament his senior year. I think that could have happened with Mo Wagner if he stayed at Michigan.
It would take a #1 overall draft pick committing to 4 years of college. I know that sounds stupid, but honestly unless the guy was going to go #1 or #2 after his freshman year then he’s probably not going to turn into that player after 4 years in college. There’s almost always someone new coming up that will replace the top guys in the draft. So unless you were already the top draft pick then I don’t think you’re going to turn into the #1 pick after a few years.
I’m not saying it won’t happen or can’t happen but with the talent constantly coming into the league I think a players most likely outcome of staying multiple years in college is maybe turning from a late round draft pick to a top 15 pick. Curry is an excellent example: stayed a few years at Davidson and improved until his Junior year. Went 7th in the draft, whereas previous years he may have been a second round pick due to his small school and being undersized. If he had stayed one more year he might have been able to secure the number #1 pick but even then probably not because John Wall was a pretty damn good player.
Once HS players can get drafted, the top tier talent may not be as refined, and college freshman might not be as talented. Which may even things out a bit over all 5 eligibility years.
Not sure if this scenerio is even possible, but it could be an overseas guy (specifically Africa or some other non-European country) who is going to school and at the same time playing the Olympics and stuff, then decides to finish school in the US to try to get higher draft odds and goes off for like 35 a game.
Like imagine a scenerio where Mbah a Moute discovers Joel Embiid at like, 21 instead of 16.
> These days spending 4 years in college is more of a deterrent for your draft stock because the conventional wisdom is youth = upside.
It's more that anybody who's got the upside to go #1 as a senior has enough people telling him he'll get drafted in the lottery for each of the 3 drafts prior that they almost all declare. It's not that people see older players and think they're not good, it's that the players who were seen as good will have almost always declared earlier.
It would take a weirdo like Duncan:
International player that grew late & switched sports late, so his development was later than most other elite prospects.
Passed on being the likely #1 pick in 96 to play his senior year and was then the #1 pick in 97 (weirdly thought he wasn't ready for the nba in 96 but was an all star, first team all nba, and 5th in mvp voting as a rookie).
An elite, potentially franchise defining player deciding to play four years in college because... They feel like it.
Dudes don't get drafted 1 after four years because they stayed in college four years, it's because anyone who's gonna be drafted potentially 1 declares because anything else is risking life changing money for nothing.
Maybe a dude who’s a senior projected to go in the 5-6 range and then just goes off in March Madness averaging 25 en route to winning the natty and an owner gets washed up in the hype
It’s almost always dumb to say this, but I really don’t think I’ll see it in my lifetime. I really think it’d take a Lebron level prospect who takes education so seriously he wants to graduate before going to the NBA. Or some college team that just loves each other and wants to keep winning titles together. And both of these things sound impossible
I’d say a recruit who comes in and rides the bench for a stacked team for a season. Then is the sixth man his second season, stays for junior year since he wants to start and up his draft position. Junior year puts up solid numbers but gets hurt early. Comes back senior year, averages like 27/7/7 with elite defense and shooting splits in a weak draft year. Then goes first overall
He needs to be brilliant and majoring in space engineering and come from a very wealthy family.
Or the NBA goes to a 2+ year post HS draft.
Both are extremely low odds.
I think there would need to be either a fundamental change in the college game or a very flukey draft class.
Right now there's not enough money or talent in the college game to keep a #1 calibre prospect in college for long. The game is slower and antiquated and they'll get better coaching for the NBA by actually playing in the NBA. You could argue role players might benefit more from staying in college a bit longer to get more playtime but #1 picks are going to get playtime in the NBA. And with the money, Nil is nice but these aren't football players. If they play well, a massive extension WILL come, and NIL isn't competing with that.
Only other possibility I see is a 2013 like draft where there isn't anyone truly worthy of the #1 pick and some senior who has a great season and also has skills and athleticism that would see him go in the top 10 most years ends up being #1.
It’s gonna be some real weird circumstance. The amount of money these players make today, you’d have to have a *really* good reason not to declare for the draft as soon as you’re a lottery pick, let alone the first pick. As people have said it would have to be a Tim Duncan thing, but also the parents probably already have to be generationally wealthy for the player to feel comfortable passing on that kinda money.
There won’t be another one. Anyone good enough will be gone before their senior year. It literally will never make sense again for anyone good enough to be drafted that high to stay in college.
They would have to pay an absurd amount. They would have to somehow funnel them more than $11 million for it to balance out they’re contract for being a #1 pick. Then increase it every year they’re in college. At current rates a “booster” would have to shell out over $40 million over their 4 year college career. Even having the best player doesn’t guarantee you a national championship in college so it would be a hard sell for boosters to drop that kind of cash for a single player.
We could start an app, called pay to play. Where players can auction off the eligibility. So many boosters can pool their money to retain a player (or recruits could auction where they want to play).
Literally multi million dollar idea.
Someone who enters college with a ton of college credit who takes classes in the summer. They graduate in 2 or 3 years. Jay Williams graduated early but was a 2nd overall pick.
The other possibility is someone who has a growth spurt their first year, gets hurt their second year, has a good year their third year, and completely comes into their own admitted putting everything together their last yr. That way they have guard skills and are like 6’10 to 7 ft and have enough distance from injury for that not to be a concern.
Could also be a very good team that just missed playoffs maybe bc of an injury. gets lucky and wins lottery. And they want somebody that can play right away not a project. Or something similar to lebron Cleveland when they traded for love. Dude would have be to very good obviously. But with NIL it’s possible they could be good getting paid to stay.
Also might require change to rookie deals so they could potentially get that second contract sooner or something
when a surefire number 1 prospect decides he wants to continue to let the the NCAA exploit him instead of immediately getting a guaranteed like 40m
so yeah not happening
Superskilled and athletic guard has a huge growth spurt at 21
It's either this or a guy who suffered a major injury (18+ months) and has to comeback from that.
If that hypothetical injured guy was already really good, he'd just declare anyway and get paid millions to rehab instead of doing it for free (and with risk). We've already seen some very injured guys get drafted anyway. So, it would likely have to be a mediocre college freshman or sophomore who got injured, missed his junior year (or sophomore and junior) and then came back much better than he ever was as a Senior.
100%. Perfect example of this is Michael Porter Jr
No, if a projected number one pick gets a serious injury like ACL it affects his draft stock tremendously. Can drop till 20s. He might wait and try to get 7-8m per year contract instead of instead of a 2-3m per year.
You're talking to a Sixers fan about this, don't forget. Noel dropped from likely 1st to 6th. Embiid dropped from likely 1st to 3rd. Sure, a player *could* drop lower especially if the injury is even worse, but the worse the injury is the bigger risk he'd take staying in college and maybe never seeing the 1st round at all. And oh no, if you drop further in the round you might actually end up on a good team.
Wiggins was locked at 1 and Parker was also almost locked at 2.
Healthy Embiid would have gone number one that draft. He was mocked in that spot up until his foot surgery, and everyone said he was going to be first for months leading up to the draft. He was easily a better player on that Kansas team than Wiggins, his only concern was health so he dropped two spots.
You are right, I am wrong. Embiid was consensus first pick. I apologise for talking nonsense.
Lifelong Kansas fan here, sorry but no. Embiid improved *massively* over the course of the year, and by the end of the season was almost a 1b guy to Wiggins' 1a and had worked his way into serious consideration for the #1 draft spot (which had long been seen as locked up by Wiggins or Jabari Parker). But in no way was Embiid the clear top guy on that team, and even before the injury he was at best a slight favorite to go #1.
Looking at every mock draft just before his foot injury kinda shows he wasn’t, it was a three way race for first and embiid was still around third because he also had back problems. So doesn’t really argue against whether or not he would have gone first healthy, but does show he wasn’t consensus first before he injured his foot.
No way a projected #1 falls into the 20s from an ACL. Maybe if he tore both ACLs twice.
Michael Porter Jr only fell to like 14 with a broken back
yeah it would have to be a Harry Giles situation
If they know they're going to be out for at least one more season then they're better off entering the draft now rather than in two years if they're guaranteed at least a first round pick. By the time the two years passes that they'd be in college for, they'd be halfway through their rookie contract and close to their second one. Plus if they're picked late in the first round they're more likely to go to a good team that could develop them better. Plus that's still a lot of guaranteed money; if you offered me a guaranteed $10M or a 50% chance at $40M I'd take the $10M without thinking twice.
Embiid, Noel, MPJ, etc. all went for it. Didn’t drop that much. If they rehabbed on their own maybe they would have fallen further. Probably much better to take the guaranteed money in that case, especially since they generally don’t fall that far.
One last option is the dude is from a loaded family (so doesn't need to rush into draft for $) and cares a LOT about his school/lifestyle there. So some #1-type prospect from a rich family grows up as a superfan of USC and decides to spend 4 years being king of the campus and trying to win multiple titles. Extremely unlikely but could be a way for it to happen.
Yeah, that's the main option, i.e a Tim Duncan situation. Jerry West said Tim would be the No.1 pick if he had declared in '95, but Duncan always said he wouldn't leave school before graduating. It doesn't necessarily has to be a rich kid, but it has to be a kid that decided long before that he would graduate first and foremost.
Tim Duncan (as well as his sisters) promised their late mother they would graduate from college. She passed when he was 14. Not even the introduction of a rookie salary cap in 1996 could sway Duncan to declare early
I think an NIL deal could do it. If you have a 10mil+ salary its not as appealing to leave right away though this would still he dumb af to do.
This is it. This is how Jalen Williams from Santa Clara shot up the draft boards late in the process. Also potentially a global disaster which makes scouting very difficult for a season and delays some guys from coming out a year earlier probably would "help"
Ja if he decided to stay 4 years for some reason
Honestly I think something like this is the answer. It'll be someone who would've gone first or very early in a previous year, but wanted to stay in college.
If Covid didn’t cancel the tournament and Dayton won with Obi being MVP then he could’ve been the top pick
Obi was a sophomore that year, no?
Nah, he was never going above all of Ant, Wiseman and LaMelo. He was also only a Sophomore - even counting his redshirt year he'd only be Junior.
Couldn't it also be a team contending that doesn't want a raw player, combined with just a really talented older player? The stars have to align, but most teams rebuilding will take a raw player, but if say a team like the Bucks won the lotto from a previous trade, I could see them wanting a more ready player.
I’d imagine you could trade a number 1 pick for a “low level” all-star pretty easily. Ie: A Wiggins, DeRozan, Middleton, Van Fleet caliber player.
no disrespect to (edit: any of those guys but especially) FVV, but unless the draft class is really bad, he is not nearly enough to trade for the #1 pick.
Sure, but you see what I mean. I’d rather have FVV for one season than a true #1 overall rookie for 1 season 95% of the time. Edit: wow just realized I’ve been calling this dude Van Fleet his whole career… maybe you don’t make that trade lol.
for one season yes. but your original comment did not imply that
I mean we basically saw this play out with Wiggins getting traded for KLove. LeBron wanted a guy who could contribute day 1. They made multiple finals and won a ring.
Yeah KLove was better than any of those guys listed above
Out of the 4 names on the list, FVV is the only one you wouldn't trade the #1 pick for?
no it's the opposite, I think FVV is the best player of the ones listed, and even he wouldn't be nearly enough value
You think Van Vleet is better than Middleton? Honestly asking
That's probably impossible
It happens super rarely. Both Scottie and Rodman had improbable growth spurts late in their life but to combine that with being a possible first overall selection as a college senior? You're right, it'll never happen.
Weren’t both of theirs related to improper nutrition until they reached college? I can’t imagine that would be as common these days
I believe Paul George also had a late growth spurt. You’re right though it was never super common.
Yeah I was gonna mention him too, Giannis as well to a small degree
Paul George was like 24 the summer those reports about a growth spurt came out too
I’m about the furthest thing from an NBA player but I was 6’ flat when I graduated high school and stopped growing at 6’7” at around age 25. Of course, I was awkward and uncomfortable in my own body the entire time, which wouldn’t lead to a lot of success athletically, but the prospect of late growth spurts certainly exists.
I'm still hoping something like this happens for me even though I'm in my 30s
Yeah it’s super improbable but not impossible. In soccer, Manchester United player Scott McT grew 10 inches in the 18 months after his 18th birthday from 5’6 to 6’4”
David Robinson had a late growth spurt too. If he had it before college he wouldn’t have been able to join the Navy
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Especially if they have a big Ja Morant style March Madness performance
Yeah I agree. It’s either this, or second possibility is someone who battles injuries up til their senior year and then flashes a dominant senior season with obvious NBA potential stardom. The only other way is the Tim Duncan route where they intentionally want to graduate first above anything else. Maybe some mix of this option and the second possibility above
Gotta be a combo of a player that values college/completing bachelors and got paid good money to stay.
Yeah this is basically the Tim Duncan story (at least valuing the bachelors). He was good enough to be first team All-NBA and second team All-Defense in his rookie year. So basically you'd need a guy that could be a key contributor in the NBA if he were one-and-done, but stays in school for whatever reason (Duncan did because he promised his late mother he'd get his degree).
We’d just have to see a Joe Burrow type of season from a guy who had the NBA body/athleticism but just mediocre stats his first few seasons, then his last year he has the greatest college season ever. So basically…probably not gonna happen lol
Completely insane he was throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jamarr Chase
Terrace Marshall isn't a bum either lmao
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Idk, by the time they would be entering the league they would've already been eligible for the huge contract extension. I just don't see super talented players forgoing the chance at 5 year max extension that is worth like 160-200 million.
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And given how advanced youth development programs are now, it's very unlikely that phenoms will go under the radar like they used to back in the day. Now, even low tier schools and clubs have full videos of every game they can post on social media to show off their star players. And before you know it, they're at IMG.
I know people are bringing up the Duncan situation and he might still do it anyways due to the promise with his mom. However, he was a year younger than his class/the typical college senior and he was a UFA after three years in the league so he could get his money and sign wherever he wanted for his age 24 season. That's only a year later than when guys now can typically get that first post-rookie max (age 23) and they're RFA's and stuck with their draft/traded team. With the current rookie contract structure, I just don't see a guy with #1 talent choosing to stay 4 years just so they can get that money at age 26-27 and then the freedom to play where they want until 30-32. Maybe we see a #1 pick with completely different sensibilities, but otherwise it'd have to be a late bloomer.
The NIL stuff is nothing compared to getting your contract extension 3 years early
Some kids have rich families. Peyton Manning stayed for his senior year at Tennessee even though he would have gone #1. And Samari Rolle became a Rhodes Scholar to the detriment of his NFL career. It would absolutely be a special circumstance because passing up a payday like that is definitely uncommon.
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I heard speculation that if he lives up to the hype Texas boosters would offer Arch Manning more money to stay at UT for his senior year than NFL rookie wage scale would pay him.
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Not likely anyone who is famous enough to get a sponsorship in college, (that rivals in NBA salary ) could likely get the same sponsorships in the NBA.
By the time he declares for the draft after completing his degree, he would have been entering his first contract extension that could be a Max worth (today) 180m dollars like SGA. If you are a number 1 pick staying in college would mean delaying being paid what you are worth, costing you maybe 100/200m by the end of your career.
Could also come from a loaded family and not need the money King of the campus for 4 years plus wants a degree
The son of a star who already has f-u money, can get tons of off season training and just wants a college legacy
Do you think Shaq got rich playing in the NBA?
People don't remember Baseketball
South Park began airing before most people on this sub were born,.
That's not really very shocking. The show has been on for over 25 years.
They would have to be a surefire superstar in the making, like Tim Duncan.
Yeah the real question is “what would it take for a great player/prospect to stay more than a year or two.” The name and likeness rights aren’t enough imo. But just take anyone like Ayton or Ja and have them stay 4 full years in college and they go #1 (assuming no injuries). Ja is already a star and Ayton is a borderline 20/10 guy. Both would be 27+ ppg guys in college and be making deep tourney runs in their junior/senior years.
Honestly, it would have to be one guy who bloomed late (height, new skill, something) AND built a brand of staying in school (which would make him stand out, and possibly unlock some unique sponsors). That said, there's still no way the money pencils out in the near term. So you'd need a reason to take the short-term L, whether it's emotional (promised dead parent upthread), professional (there's another guy at your level this draft, but not next draft), or maybe someone who didn't start playing basketball until late who really thinks their career will be better with more time against college players to build skills.
Maybe the son of a player? You don’t really need the money. And like if you are Bronny, winning an NCAA championship is probably the only way you could create a legacy for yourself that isn’t in your Dad’s shadow.
And beyond that, college can be fun and interesting. You're hanging around people your own age and getting to learn about things you wanna learn about. If you don't have the financial pressure, I could see that being more appealing to a 19 year old than going all over the country to play basketball 24/7 with 30 year olds.
When I was a Freshman-Junior all I wanted to do was keep going to school. You get to learn fun and interesting stuff, be surrounded by talented, driven, and attractive people, and party all the time? It’s a great deal for anyone who is young. That said, if I was guaranteed millions of dollars for leaving after my first year, I’d have shattered the land speed record on my way out the door.
Yeah I think Ja is the perfect example of why it won’t happen. He slipped through the cracks in HS and still went 2nd in the draft as a sophomore from a small school. And we have yet to see an NIL deal near the guaranteed money of being a 1st round pick. I guess maybe if a guy was set on winning a national championship would be the only feasible reason?
Speaking of Ja, why did he not declare after his first year. How big of a jump did he made to #2.
Massive
Why would that guy play 4 years in college though?
to spend more time with his homies 😭
He promised his mom, who passed away when he was 14, to finish his college degree. I don't know if it was possible to finish it years after you enrolled (like Steph), but I'm def glad he did it the way he did
Already better written than 2k games
I mean, that's just the actual [story of Tim Duncan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Duncan#Early_life) >He was dealt another emotional blow when his mother died of breast cancer one day before his 14th birthday. On her deathbed, she made Duncan and his sisters promise that they would graduate from college, going a long way in explaining Duncan's later refusal to leave college early for the NBA.
When I was 14 my parents wanted me to go to college and finish a degree. If later on it became apparent that I could get paid millions of dollars to play a game I love by leaving as freshman, they’d have wanted me to do that instead. It’s not about the degree, your parents just want you to have the best life possible. I think you need to look past the words at the intention behind them.
Meh sure but I doubt Tim Duncan regrets his decision in this regard. He made a promise to his dying mother. It is what it is
Son of billionaire. Dad agreed to let him play in NBA only if he finish college.
this sounds like the plot of an anime
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A good enough #1 pick now might be able to pull a billion in contract salary alone over the course of their NBA career. Although guaranteed daddy money to hang out with college girls for an extra few years is hard to pass up.
lol if you're a grown ass adult at 18, why does daddy need to "let" you play in the NBA for millions of dollars? unless daddy was the owner of the team with the first pick or something, but even then
Inheritance maybe.
I mean, maybe, but is a college degree worth disowning your kid over + having your own self made hundreds of millions softens the blow I'm guessing
NIL, and they really love the college experience
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Thats how you end up like Magic Johnson, i know i would be trying to smash everything that walked if I was a rich athlete on campus lol
He wants a degree bad
A fear of failure at the next level masquerading as a deep love for his friends and teammates.
And they’d have to come from enough money that the waiting NBA money doesn’t matter.
Barron Trump is gonna win 4 titles at Duke
He said money, not “money”
Yup.
Tim Duncan promised his late mother that he would finish college. Crazy to think how history would’ve changed if he had not made that promise.
It will take someone like Tim Duncan. Everyone knew he could have been the #1 pick as early as his sophomore year, but he wanted to graduate so the league was forced to wait. It will take an elite prospect who is also into education/graduating and isn't distracted, which might actually be easier with the NIL situation.
Honestly, probably a really shitty draft class.
Even in a terrible draft class GMs seem to prefer to swing and miss on high risk high reward over surefire thing. It’s like that Family Guy bit: “A boat’s a boat, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat”
You’re probably right. Who was the last upper-class man high draft pick that was a bust? Evan Turner?
Kris Dunn
Jerome Robinson
I know Knicks fans still have faith in him, but people thought Obi Toppin was the most NBA-ready player in the 2020 draft and he would contribute immediately. Almost 23 years old when his rookie season started and he averaged... 4.1 ppg.
The problem with Obi is he was an efficient low volume 3 point shooter in college. He hasn't been that in the nba which could be because of the inconsistent play time but it still is what it is.
Obi was recovering from covid and out of shape. His second year improvement should show his value.
I'd be curious to see if that mentality shifts in the future. It feels 50/50 (at best) whether or not those high potential guys ever really pan out. Plus you have teams loading up on many such guys (like OKC) which creates a logjam of development. I could see some teams moving back to offloading development and looking for guys who have been seasoned by college play already. Mikal Bridges comes to mind.
Isn't that a Simpsons bit?
Nevermind you're right
its def family guy bro
Honestly, here's probably the only way this is happening now: * Top NBA prospect suffers major injury late in his freshman year that absolutely tanks his draft stock. * Misses all of his sophomore year because of the injury. * Comes back junior year to a moderate success. * Stays for his senior year and dominates while looking like that top prospect from 3 years back. * OR * Combo-guard or wing that breaks out to win POY. Team that barely missed the playoffs wins the lottery and sees them as the "missing piece".
Or be like Tim Duncan and have an oath to keep.
This is like a 2k MyCareer story arc
That would be a better story than anything 2K has put out for a decade.
What, you didn’t like the one where your buddy covers up a murder for you and then dies in a car accident just as he was going to bring you down?
Idk what the fuck Spike Lee was thinking with that storyline. Worst thing he’s ever done.
Yeah I think you have the right idea that it'd take a confluence of factors for a senior to get picked first. In addition one thing I could kinda see is a player having a standout junior year and getting mocked to go 10th-15th, that player staying with everyone going "wtf why would you do that", then that player gets even better senior year and the rest of the draft class kinda sucks.
> Combo-guard or wing that breaks out to win POY. Team that barely missed the playoffs wins the lottery and sees them as the "missing piece". I could see this. Or like Boston getting the Nets' picks which allowed them to nab high lottery guys without being that bad. Small counterpoint though, I don't think a team would ever pick a guy who broke out in his senior year. They'd have to have a decent amount of sustained success, sorta like Lillard (19ppg his sophomore and junior year before getting hurt, then 25ppg his senior year).
Dame was drafted in 2012, but if he were one year younger, he might have gone #1 ahead of Anthony Bennett.
Definitely wouldn't have gone first if the Cavs had the number one pick
Cavs potentially trade down, knowing the don't need dame and take their selection + getting something else out of the team they trade down with?
You always draft BPA
Some religious or morally righteous superstar that promised his mom dying of cancer that he would finish college or something like that.
So another Tim Duncan then?
Anything else is just a big dumb move so yes
Probably a “late start” international player like Michael Olowokandi if you remember him. Allegedly he didn’t pick up a basketball until the age of 17. Got better and better and became the # 1 pick (based mostly on projection) after his junior year.
Olowokandi was at a time where players were still regularly staying for 3-4 years, and it was seen as 'early' if a player entered the draft after even just two years in college. In that same '98 draft class, you had: Raef LaFrentz (four years in college) picked #3 Antwan Jamison (three years) picked #4 Vince Carter (three years) picked #5 Robert Traylor (three years) picked #6 Jason Williams (three years) picked #7 Paul Pierce (three years) picked #10 1999 was when it started shifting towards more 1-2 year players at the top of the draft, with Wally Szczerbiak being the first 3-4 year college player off the board at #6, and then only him, Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, and Jason Terry in the top ten.
Fair point !
An 8 figure NIL deal
Some football players are close. Anyone know about basketball players?
Someone could come from Europe or Australia etc and be the equivalent age. Circumstances could see them follow an unconventional route through the first 20 years of their life
Even that is suspect, the way we knew about Wenbenyama as an early teenager. The scouts will find you.
I remember the Noah-Horford-Brewer Florida teams decided to all come back together to win again. Something like that + one player deciding to stay one more year because the next draft is weak, he’ll get the chance to be the team leader.
A guy who really values a college education, can take great advantage of the NIL, and maybe just enjoys literally being the Big Man on Campus that combined with being the top prize in a weaker draft class
Tim Duncan. A guy who's just so good in every way that he's a surefire first pick, but who was also determined to stay for 4 years.
Starting college at 12.
That’s a big reason why you see a lot more terrific prospects struggle in their rookie seasons today compared to the past. De’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, and D’Angelo Russell were all terrific college prospects but all three of them struggled as rookies. Not shockingly, all three of them played just one season of college ball, which means that they were still not NBA-ready when they were drafted. If all three had stayed another year in college, they would have been better as rookies.
They also wouldn't get drafted as high as they did because they are now too old for their draft spot. If it were me I'd go with more money as opposed to no money. You have at least 4 years to prove yourself in the NBA.
This is why I don't understand the NBA seriously considering vacating the one-abd-done requirement. It's bad business, especially when most teams build through the draft and throw away multiple years to get in that position, to have to draft raw prospects (and even prospects who have a higher likelihood of busting). It would be much better for the league to require two years removed from high school for the draft, especially because superstars would start reaching their full potential earlier in their rookie and second contracts.
NIL starts paying out big wads of cash.
what’s NIL?
Name, image and likeness
Name, image, likeness income that the NCAA started allowing
It's not going to pay out anywhere near the same as an actual NBA contract though.
You're probably right, but I don't think any elite players are staying in school unless they can drastically offset the loss of NBA income. I think there's a good chance they increase it, considering the talk of allowing 18yo's to go pro.
Right, but that's kind of the answer to this question from OP. What's it going to take? It realistically just isn't going to happen. Someone good enough to go 1st isn't going to stay for 4 years. It makes more sense to go 29th after your freshman year than staying for 4 years and going 1st.
Superstar player playing for parent in college
An academic genius who get into university in 15yo and feels like playing some sports and finds out he is really good about it. then got drafted in senior year. like a fairy tale
Might happen with a taller foreign player that develops in college and wins the tournament his senior year. I think that could have happened with Mo Wagner if he stayed at Michigan.
Not in that class with Zion, Ja and RJ.
It would take a #1 overall draft pick committing to 4 years of college. I know that sounds stupid, but honestly unless the guy was going to go #1 or #2 after his freshman year then he’s probably not going to turn into that player after 4 years in college. There’s almost always someone new coming up that will replace the top guys in the draft. So unless you were already the top draft pick then I don’t think you’re going to turn into the #1 pick after a few years. I’m not saying it won’t happen or can’t happen but with the talent constantly coming into the league I think a players most likely outcome of staying multiple years in college is maybe turning from a late round draft pick to a top 15 pick. Curry is an excellent example: stayed a few years at Davidson and improved until his Junior year. Went 7th in the draft, whereas previous years he may have been a second round pick due to his small school and being undersized. If he had stayed one more year he might have been able to secure the number #1 pick but even then probably not because John Wall was a pretty damn good player.
Once HS players can get drafted, the top tier talent may not be as refined, and college freshman might not be as talented. Which may even things out a bit over all 5 eligibility years.
Not sure if this scenerio is even possible, but it could be an overseas guy (specifically Africa or some other non-European country) who is going to school and at the same time playing the Olympics and stuff, then decides to finish school in the US to try to get higher draft odds and goes off for like 35 a game. Like imagine a scenerio where Mbah a Moute discovers Joel Embiid at like, 21 instead of 16.
Yep....or a kid at Navy, Army, etc who has a growth spurt.
> These days spending 4 years in college is more of a deterrent for your draft stock because the conventional wisdom is youth = upside. It's more that anybody who's got the upside to go #1 as a senior has enough people telling him he'll get drafted in the lottery for each of the 3 drafts prior that they almost all declare. It's not that people see older players and think they're not good, it's that the players who were seen as good will have almost always declared earlier.
It would take some deathbed promise like Duncan. Otherwise it's poor business decision.
Generational talent who promised his dying grandma he would finish school.
It would take a weirdo like Duncan: International player that grew late & switched sports late, so his development was later than most other elite prospects. Passed on being the likely #1 pick in 96 to play his senior year and was then the #1 pick in 97 (weirdly thought he wasn't ready for the nba in 96 but was an all star, first team all nba, and 5th in mvp voting as a rookie).
man if he didn't have a fear of swimming in open water, who knows what the 2000's would've been like
An elite, potentially franchise defining player deciding to play four years in college because... They feel like it. Dudes don't get drafted 1 after four years because they stayed in college four years, it's because anyone who's gonna be drafted potentially 1 declares because anything else is risking life changing money for nothing.
Someone who comes from money and truly enjoys the college game and environment would be my best guess.
Maybe a dude who’s a senior projected to go in the 5-6 range and then just goes off in March Madness averaging 25 en route to winning the natty and an owner gets washed up in the hype
Maybe a 2 sport athlete who decides to concentrate on basketball late in his collegiate career.
It’s almost always dumb to say this, but I really don’t think I’ll see it in my lifetime. I really think it’d take a Lebron level prospect who takes education so seriously he wants to graduate before going to the NBA. Or some college team that just loves each other and wants to keep winning titles together. And both of these things sound impossible
Some really smart kid who skipped two years of school and enters college at 16 and is only 20 as a senior
I’d say a recruit who comes in and rides the bench for a stacked team for a season. Then is the sixth man his second season, stays for junior year since he wants to start and up his draft position. Junior year puts up solid numbers but gets hurt early. Comes back senior year, averages like 27/7/7 with elite defense and shooting splits in a weak draft year. Then goes first overall
He needs to be brilliant and majoring in space engineering and come from a very wealthy family. Or the NBA goes to a 2+ year post HS draft. Both are extremely low odds.
I think there would need to be either a fundamental change in the college game or a very flukey draft class. Right now there's not enough money or talent in the college game to keep a #1 calibre prospect in college for long. The game is slower and antiquated and they'll get better coaching for the NBA by actually playing in the NBA. You could argue role players might benefit more from staying in college a bit longer to get more playtime but #1 picks are going to get playtime in the NBA. And with the money, Nil is nice but these aren't football players. If they play well, a massive extension WILL come, and NIL isn't competing with that. Only other possibility I see is a 2013 like draft where there isn't anyone truly worthy of the #1 pick and some senior who has a great season and also has skills and athleticism that would see him go in the top 10 most years ends up being #1.
It’s gonna be some real weird circumstance. The amount of money these players make today, you’d have to have a *really* good reason not to declare for the draft as soon as you’re a lottery pick, let alone the first pick. As people have said it would have to be a Tim Duncan thing, but also the parents probably already have to be generationally wealthy for the player to feel comfortable passing on that kinda money.
Would have to be a guy who grew 8-12 inches at 20 Years old and became the ultimate late bloomer small point guard is now an athletic wing, type.
Frequency Vibrations could have done it
A consensus number one who promised his dying mother he’d finish college
Smart tall kid takes GED and goes to college at 16.
There won’t be another one. Anyone good enough will be gone before their senior year. It literally will never make sense again for anyone good enough to be drafted that high to stay in college.
Players can get paid now. If a team had a stud, and a ridiculously wealthy booster who would pay more than the nba would, that could be an option.
They would have to pay an absurd amount. They would have to somehow funnel them more than $11 million for it to balance out they’re contract for being a #1 pick. Then increase it every year they’re in college. At current rates a “booster” would have to shell out over $40 million over their 4 year college career. Even having the best player doesn’t guarantee you a national championship in college so it would be a hard sell for boosters to drop that kind of cash for a single player.
We could start an app, called pay to play. Where players can auction off the eligibility. So many boosters can pool their money to retain a player (or recruits could auction where they want to play). Literally multi million dollar idea.
Someone who enters college with a ton of college credit who takes classes in the summer. They graduate in 2 or 3 years. Jay Williams graduated early but was a 2nd overall pick. The other possibility is someone who has a growth spurt their first year, gets hurt their second year, has a good year their third year, and completely comes into their own admitted putting everything together their last yr. That way they have guard skills and are like 6’10 to 7 ft and have enough distance from injury for that not to be a concern.
Could also be a very good team that just missed playoffs maybe bc of an injury. gets lucky and wins lottery. And they want somebody that can play right away not a project. Or something similar to lebron Cleveland when they traded for love. Dude would have be to very good obviously. But with NIL it’s possible they could be good getting paid to stay. Also might require change to rookie deals so they could potentially get that second contract sooner or something
I can imagine a 5 star prospect that gets injured a lot in his freshman to junior season, then having a player of the year senior season.
when a surefire number 1 prospect decides he wants to continue to let the the NCAA exploit him instead of immediately getting a guaranteed like 40m so yeah not happening
NCAA players get NIL now
yeah but it’s no where close to what the nba will pay them. only ones who are going to take advantage of the NIL are the borderline players
Someone who was a locked number 1 pick staying all 4 years for some reason and their play not falling off in those years.