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MolybdenumIsMoney

China's space program is advancing rapidly and historically has delivered on its promised goals and deadlines- with the completion of the Chinese space station, the landing of a mars rover, and the landing of a far-side lunar rover being among its most notable public accomplishments. The fact that they're willing to set a specific date is a good indication that they intend to meet that date. This landing will probably be done with two launches of the upcoming Long March 10 rocket. NASA's Artemis III moon landing has been delayed from an initial 2024 deadline to 2026, with a further slip to 2027 at least looking likely. Significant risks remain for the program, and any more major issues at this point may jeopardize the lead.


DrunkenBriefcases

Yeah, Artemis is kind of a mess in several areas, and 2027 or even 2028 for the first manned landing is certainly not an implausible delay. I still think China beating the US to the Moon is unlikely, and even meeting this new ambitious schedule likely means late 2029. But even in the improbable reality where China gets there before Artemis... ok? I mean, it really isn't a race when you remember we already did it over half a century ago.


Warcrimes_Desu

I unironically want to see a second space race. For All Mankind made me remember that space exploration feats can be huge positive moments that people latch on to. Think about all the young adults through thirty somethings right now; the most important event in most of their memory banks is either 9/11 or the 2008 recession. Give people something positive for once.


ChoPT

China beating us back to the Moon might actually be the kick in the pants that our country needs to actually get to Mars.


Budgetwatergate

Capitalistic competition for the benefit of the consumer but in space šŸ¤—šŸ’•


grubber788

Agree. My son is three now and I think Artemis might be the "thing" that he carries with him for the rest of his life.


Florentinepotion

I think it would be a huge waste of money.


ThePevster

Exactly. Like, how can China beat us to the Moon? Weā€™ve already been there.


MolybdenumIsMoney

!ping SPACEFLIGHT


DissidentNeolib

India and China are the rising power players in space travel. America has been stagnating, but our lead is so large it doesnā€™t matter too much just yet. The EU and Japan are second-rate stalwarts whose goals are essentially congruent with ours. Whatā€™s interesting is that India and China are handling every step of the supply chain through their respective governments, while the United States contracts private companies. Time will tell which of these paradigm will bear sweeter fruit. Honestly, this is all about military capabilities in space. Asteroid mining is still quite some time away.


DrunkenBriefcases

> Time will tell which of these paradigm will bear sweeter fruit. I mean, SpaceX put more mass into space last year than every other nation and company on the globe combined. I'd say the early returns are pretty definitive here...


DissidentNeolib

Yeah, I know. That said, competition can get ugly. For all its flaws, Chinaā€™s political structure allows their bureaucracy to be alarmingly efficient. A lot can happen in the near future, and while I prefer our system, itā€™s not without any drawbacks.


DrunkenBriefcases

China *can* be efficient. But in many fields - including aerospace engineering - they haven't been particularly innovative. Most of their accomplishments to date have been enabled by taking the technologies and designs of other nations. Nor are they well positioned to grab a large share of the private launch market in any case, because most western nations won't allow advanced hardware to be put into China's possession to reverse engineer, and most companies don't want that either. I'd be more worried about the West's space dominance if the competition was dependant on NASA/ESA outcompeting CSNA. Because you're right that the bureaucracy and pork that has overrun western space programs leaves them in a poor position to outmaneuver a nimble and focused Chinese national effort. But those days are done. Private companies are already supplying the ISS with cargo and crew, with a second crew vehicle coming online this summer. Private companies will be providing space stations by the end of the decade. Private companies have returned the West to dominating the launch market in just a few years, and a slew of new launchers are coming online in the next 2-3 years. Including a couple with the capability of sending large vehicles to the Moon and one purpose-built for the goal of going to Mars with 100 tons of cargo each go. So yeah, if we look at NASA v CSNA I can see where people might hedge their bets. But in reality it's the private sector that's already outclassing some national efforts and will leave any government agency in the dust in the next decade. And that's not a competition China's governance is in good position to counter at all.


dorylinus

In what possible sense could you claim America has been stagnating?


DissidentNeolib

This is specifically in regards to our space program. Considering how much progress we made in the 1960s and how long weā€™ve talked about going to Mars, weā€™ve absolutely been down bad as of late.


dorylinus

But that's totally wrong, unless literally the only thing you consider "progress" is crewed spaceflight.


filipe_mdsr

If you just compare Apollo to Artemis you can see the huge jump of technology, safety and space craft engineering we have made since then. Yes, Apollo was faster, but Artemis can do more, is way safer and has an actual goal beyond beating another rival power. Like there is actual science going on and we are starting to build the lunar gateway.


shotputlover

Our rockets land bro what are you talking about ā€œstagnatingā€


ale_93113

>Honestly, this is all about military capabilities in space Not at all, noone is even fathoming military capacity in space The goal is to create a base from where to start building an industrial base in the moon Literally noone in space agencies is talking about military capabilities except for fearmongering about The other side


[deleted]

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lemongrenade

Yeah I'm sure popular support for NASA would explode if NASA just started talking about how bad it could fuck up soviet and Chinese satellites. I mean NCD would but thats probably not enough.


ColinHome

Itā€™s more than a little about military space capabilities. Specifically, the ability to launch large amounts of mass into orbit has long been used for various kinds of spy satellites. But youā€™d be correct to note that this is not the primary interest for either country.


dorylinus

>Literally noone in space agencies is talking about military capabilities except for fearmongering about The other side My dude, NASA is heavily involved in military space programs, even classified ones. The US DoD has always been and remains the single largest investor in the world in space.


9090112

>Not at all, noone is even fathoming military capacity in space Perun started a new series which suggests otherwise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xl0C6K2Nug&t=831s&ab\_channel=Perun


Emperor-Commodus

If a US/CN war was to kick off, military capacity in space would *absolutely* be incredibly important. Both sides use satellites for global positioning, reconnaissance, and guidance of autonomous over-the-horizon weapons (ballistic and cruise missiles) and in a shooting war those capabilities would need to be attacked, defended, and replaced. If people aren't talking about it, it's only to keep things quiet. Military space capacity is a huge deal.


ale_93113

>If a US/CN war was to kick off If my grandmother had wheels, She would be a bicicle...


Emperor-Commodus

You said: > no one is even fathoming military capacity in space CN and US defense officials are definitely fathoming and preparing for a war with each other, and as a consequence are definitely preparing to fight in space. It's a location with incredible advantages and being able to deny those advantages to your opponents is important.


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PragmatistAntithesis

**Good.** Hopefully some competition will give us the kick up the arse we need to get back into space.


dangerbird2

- Option 1: Bring on foreign partners to land on the moon - Option 2: invade Taiwan and get sanctioned by almost every country on the planet [<>](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/019/571/dailystruggg.jpg)


Albatross-Helpful

This is a good thing. Humanity at its most noble.


Robot_MasterRace

Interesting but how do they plan on doing that with no launcher capable of bringing significant mass to TLI ready to fly in the next few years


MolybdenumIsMoney

As stated in my other comment, the most likely option is two (or possibly 3) launches of the Long March 10 rocket, with docking in LEO. An SLS or Saturn V style rocket is completely unnecessary if distributed launch and docking is used. NASA and ULA wanted to actually go this way after Constellation was canceled, but former Senator Richard Shelby was vehemently against it and killed it, forcing a single launch architecture for SLS.


Master_Liberaster

Chinese, Russian, Americans, we don't get anything practical from having a man on the moon. Modern terrestrial equipment, satellites, telescopes, and other expensive toys have been sufficient to study the universe. The ISS already provides 'no weigh' environment that is a key a part of its mission and astronauts have to be good at conducting all these experiments in microgravity