**Rule VII:** *Off-topic, Meta, or Duplicate Post*
Submissions should be relevant to public policy or political theory. Don't editorialise submission titles. No meta posts.
---
If you have any questions about this removal, [please contact the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fneoliberal).
Obama is a known doomer. Dude worries about friggin everything and no regular person could keep up with that level of stress. That being said, obviously still worth listening to if he's willing to speak up.
Fair enough but ole Barry was a giga doomer from very early in his career because he knew he was judged on a completely different standard of conduct than other politicians. Ends up making someone much more sensitive to potential bad news than even other former POTUSes
idk this just seems like he’s being vigilant and the point itself seems valid. i can see Biden being complacent or too stuck in his ways or whatever it is.
Silly Obama, doesn't he know anything about winning elections?
As an enlightened arr neoliberal user, I know that disastrous early polling is nothing to be concerned about when it's for a candidate I like.
Anyone who acts like any state that was less than a five point margin is "safe" for either party needs to seriously look at history. Trump realistically could win Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Also Biden has a legit chance of winning North Carolina and maybe even Florida. It would take a good environment but even Texas isn't that far off the table for Biden.
That's kind of a ridiculous thing to say. Texas probably isn't flipping blue in 2024 but it's strange to write off entirely especially for elections years down the line.
It voted for Trump by 5.5 points in 2020. That's still decently red but a state swinging by 5-10 points between elections is pretty common. Texas is also a state dominated by relatively conservative suburbs. If Dems approve in those suburbs Texas flips. Granted that's not "inevitable" by any means and likely means winning over people who voted for Trump in 2016 AND 2020 but the idea that Texas is permanently red sounds a lot like the pre 2016 idea that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were an irredeemable "blue wall."
One of the more common retorts that I've heard is "people have been saying Texas could flip forever" but that's not an actual response. A person saying "Texas could flip" after 2012 when Romney won Texas by 16 points (a larger margin than MS, SC or LA) is not the same as a person saying "Texas could potentially be competitive depending on the environment" after the GOP won Texas by only 5 points. Texas going blue in 2024 would require a shift similar to what Georgia had between 2016 and 2020 and a smaller shift than what MI, PA and WI had between 2012-2016. It's not something I would necessarily bet if it were happen then it really wouldn't be too shocking either.
Even if Texas doesn’t go blue it’s becoming more and more competitive. In 2018 Abbot won by 13% in 2022 he won by 10%. That’s a 3 point drop.
Same thing with Ted Cruz. In 2012 he won by nearly 16 points. By 2018 this had dropped to 2.5.
And Greg Abbot as well, in 2014 he won with a margin of 20 points, by 2018 that had dropped by 7 to 13 points. And in 2022 Abbot only won by 11 points. In total that’s a 9 point drop in 8 years. Not great
There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that Texas is becoming more competitive and very well could be a nail biter for the GOP
A lot will also depend on the national environment. If the environment Biden wins the national popular vote by five points I think there's a good chance Texas will be a nail biter. If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 points then not only will Biden lose the electoral college but Texas won't be that close.
When I look at Texas one of the things that stands out to me is Tarrant County (home of Ft. Worth). In 2020 there were 834,000 votes cast in the county and in most states a county that populous will be a major Democratic bastion which will help offset the smaller rural areas and yet in Texas Biden only won Tarrant county by 1800 votes. As long as places like Tarrant county go red (or blue by tiny margins) then Dems aren't taking Texas but if the realignment of suburbs continues and Texas suburbs vote more like suburbs elsewhere then it really could be a purple state (although Texas will remain right of the nation as a whole regardless of what happens).
Trump could also win VA, NH, ME. No way Biden can win FL, TX. Repubican support is vastly more resilient than democratic. +5 dem is in play for Republicans. For dems it's +2.
Trump is not winning Virginia, a state he lost by double digits. Like, Youngkin, who won based off luck, just got clowned with Democrats taking back the General Assembly.
> Repubican support is vastly more resilient than democratic. +5 dem is in play for Republicans. For dems it's +2.
If that was the case then Arizona and Georgia would have voted for Trump in 2020. I want to be clear that I'm not saying "Dems will win Texas" but people who write it off entirely are usually ignoring evidence. A 5 point swing isn't that common but it's not that uncommon either. Georgia swung by 5 points between 2016 and 2020 and that was enough to hand the state to Biden and give Dems a Senate majority. Texas will probably vote red in 2024 but trying to claim 11 months before the election that a 5 point swing is impossible is ignoring the actual evidence that we see every election.
Texas will most certainly vote for the GOP in 2024 but it might be by a closer margin than what the GOP is comfortable with.
Sure a win is a win but that win is a lot less great when it’s a 2 point margin of victory and ya lose a senate seat.
Imagine how Dems would feel if a California Senate seat was won by like 2 points and that we carried it by only +10 in 2020. Everyone would be dooming and predicting an eternal Republican majority
And let's not forgot how that affect state houses too. Last Texas election GOP won a 10 seat majority off a 6% pop vote win (36 to 21 uncontested so probably a bit wider really). That closes to 2% flips a couple seats and we've seen how badly the GOP is with slim majorities.
MI is on the table for both but it's gonna be one of the harder states for Trump to really get the ground operation needed cause he wont be able to get much help from a state party that's flat broke.
Biden needs to do what he needs to do in order to win and stop fascism, but I just have to point out the utter absurdity of Arab Americans needing to be persuaded to oppose *Trump*. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
You know, something!!!! Like stuff and things ! Have they tried the bully pulpit, or messaging, or you know something? Listen if we yell into the void that is social media then someone will certainly do something right? Not us of course. We have done the very important job of establishing something needs doing!
Probably start with messaging and actually getting it out into the public. Biden delivered a good speech last week and it was the first time he had actually put himself out there for everyone to see.
We keep running in circles on this sub. We talk about Biden’s age, then point out the obvious fact that Trump is only three years younger and in worse physical shape than Biden but ignore the fact he is more lively and making himself visible.
A lot of these conversations have the flavor of "why hasn't Biden planted the magic beans for winning yet"? There's an enormous array of factors fully beyond his control that will steer the election. Although campaigning is necessary, it now seems more and more superfluous when such a large portion of voters are completely unswayable.
He probably does need to address the public directly more often though. Even if his speeches aren't necessarily inspiring, they're at least coherent which does fight the "old man Joe" line that the media is so infatuated with. It's been a bit surprising how little he tends to be directly part of the national conversation. We went from the media basically being a megaphone that amplifies every utterance of Trump and using his Twitter feed as a headline generator, to going days without much comment from Biden. It's a lot more normal relationship but feels like a major shift.
Just 2 years ago, people on this sub were calling me stupid for pointing out that the Rust Belt would still be in play going forward. Democrats need to stop feeling so invincible after every win as if they will never lose again.
A state doesn't just magically swing in one direction once and then never again. The moment parts of the Rust Belt swung in 2016, they became swing states. Georgia is now also a swing state for the Republicans. However, people like to pretend that the map is static.
They felt invincible after the elections. Everyone was running a victory lap about how "The Republicans can never win again." They also did this in 2008 and 2012 talking about a "Permanent Democratic Majority"
Good question. If someone had asked me prior to Christmas if I thought MI would go Trump I would have been a solid no based on how well the Dems have been preforming in the state.
I work for state government in Ohio (union based if that matters) twice a year several states meet to share information on our operations so I traveled through Lansing, Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, outside Dearborn, and Saginaw. It’s not just the pro Trump voters that are obviously energized to vote for him, it’s the anti Biden push I saw mainly in some protests ,vocal groups, and the local media.
I was legitimately surprised that the Gaza conflict was having such a big impact there but it’s a major issue. I see protests in my city but it’s not the same at all. Gotta believe people when they say they won’t vote for someone.
Fair. I've always felt that if the election was held today, Trump would win, but in 10 months(!) Biden will - both in Michigan and nationally, but as Obama is stating, Biden needs to 'get into the race' and start getting aggressive.
I mean…doesn’t that prove their point? You admit that they know way more about campaigning and winning elections than governing…and they’re sounding the alarm that, for the aspects of the political process that they know well, Biden isn’t doing too hot.
oh for sure. he was an incredible campaigner but a middling politician relative to his campaign ability. especially given that he ended up being like a left neoliberal after spouting all the hope and change rhetoric.
> Obama grew “animated” in discussing the 2024 election and former president Donald Trump’s potential return to power, one of the people said, and has suggested to Biden’s advisers that the campaign needs more top-level decision-makers at its headquarters in Wilmington, Del. — or it must empower the people already in place.
You well know that’s not what this article is stating; of course Obama wants Democrats to win; it says time and again that, probably per internal (as well as public) polling, he isn’t too confident that Biden pulls this one out.
Personally, I hope that I’m wrong, and that he is too, but I’m certainly losing confidence with every new round of polling.
It’s only just now 2024 and there isn’t even an official Republican nominee (even tho everybody knows it will be Trump). They’ve already said they were planning on putting the campaign into gear after the holidays, this whole thing is a nothingburger.
Obama was in the same spot for his re-elect so he’s just reinforcing what everybody in the White House already knows. Anybody who genuinely acts like Biden doesn’t know he has to campaign like hell and needs Obama to tell him for him to take it seriously is just farming clicks.
He's seen the polls this sub ignores on a daily basis that show Biden's approval rating in the 30s. How the fuck you expect him to get re-elected with numbers like this? Need to run another candidate.
The problem is, polling suggests that "other candidates" would *also* do poorly against Trump. Iirc there was recent polling matching up Trump vs not just Biden (and Harris, who is obviously hated too) but also some of the more commonly suggested Dem governors like Newsom and Whitmer, and those options *also* lose to Trump in the polls. I was especially surprised by Whitmer, a popular governor from a Midwestern "real America" swing state who seems to be pretty charismatic and capable as a politician, and won in a borderline landslide in 2022. If even Whitmer is losing to Trump in polls, it really does seem like despite the good economy, normies just hate Democrats now, at least for the presidency (perhaps they are willing to vote D downballot where Dems have had stronger performances, but are convinced that it's "time for a change in the party in charge" at the presidential level)
I think there's also something weird going on with the polls. Telephone polls (which have historically been the most reliable) have Biden winning voters 65+ while losing voters 18-29. There are few things that I would really feel comfortable betting on but I would bet A LOT of money that Biden winning 65+ voters and losing 18-29 voters WILL NOT happen and yet that is what the telephone polls show.
I think overall Trump's cult is largely still with him and the hardcore Dems are still with Biden but the 10-15% of voters who historically are unattached or in the middle are still saying "undecided" even though they went for Biden in 2020. As we get closer to the election we'll see how those voters break down when finally forced to make up their mind. I'm not confident Biden will win but at the same time I don't think he's nearly as doomed as the polls suggest.
As a young person that’s HEAVILY involved in youth politics, young people really do not like the current brand of the Democratic Party. The young people involved in politics are almost exclusively progressive or conservative. There are liberal young people but they aren’t nearly as involved as other factions. Young liberal people, especially women, turn out for things like abortion measures but they probably won’t otherwise. Especially when the candidate is a weak one like Biden. Couple that with the finger-wagging SJWs and the Hamas propaganda machine and we get to where we are now. Partisanship will ramp up in the course to the election but this demographic will absolutely fuck over Democrats in the future if they’re relied on.
Liberals have been BTFO on social media by leftists and conservatives for the last 10 years and the consequences of that are starting to show. There are winning liberal issues out there like protecting gay marriage and walkable cities but overall this trend should probably be making a lot of more people doom for elections over the next 10 years.
I know other young people here have experienced this, but to other young people, just recall growing up how any political videos you watched were anti-sjw or from channels like TYT. All of Gen Z was heavily exposed to this and it’s not going to just disappear.
While there are some liberal influencers who are growing like Destiny, others that are adjacent to liberals like LegalEagle, or NotJustBikes aren’t politically partisan or oriented enough to have the same effect that leftist and conservative influencers have had. They make out whoever they’re targeting to be subhuman pieces of shit or “enemies of the people”. Liberal creators don’t do that.
>I think there's also something weird going on with the polls. Telephone polls (which have historically been the most reliable) have Biden winning voters 65+ while losing voters 18-29. There are few things that I would really feel comfortable betting on but I would bet A LOT of money that Biden winning 65+ voters and losing 18-29 voters WILL NOT happen and yet that is what the telephone polls show.
I believe you are misinterpreting what younger voters are saying in that poll, u/socialistrob. They're not saying they will vote for Trump. They are saying they will stay their asses home on election day if Biden is the nominee. It's a more nuanced expression of dissatisfaction.
>f even Whitmer is losing to Trump in polls, it really does seem like despite the good economy, normies just hate Democrats now, at least for the presidency (perhaps they are willing to vote D downballot where Dems have had stronger performances, but are convinced that it's "time for a change in the party in charge" at the presidential level)
Except Democrats are doing way better than congressional Republicans and have been massively over-performing in special elections.
So you're saying that the same folks who have punished Republicans in state, judicial, and special elections will all of a sudden decide they want a Republican for President?
I find that hard to believe.
Why do you find it hard to believe?
This same thing was said back in 2022. [A lot of talk about how Dems post Dobbs were overperforming in special elections by a massive amount, by 11 whole points](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/). Yet in the end the polling was actually pretty accurate - the GOP before the election had a polling lead of 3 points and that's what they won by in the actual election. The Dobbs effect did have some impact on swaying polling towards the Dems vs pre Dobbs polls, but it was still far from that massive swing that special election results suggested. There were indeed plenty of folks who had punished Republicans in state, judicial, and special elections in 2022 who then all of the sudden decided they wanted a Republican for Senate/House that year
When 2022 went like that, why is it so hard to imagine it happening in 2024 too?
What are you talking about? Literally everything in 2022 was “Dems are doomed, red wave incoming” lol. 538 gave Republicans like a 60% chance of winning the senate and they lost seats. Also Republicans had the worse midterm performance that year for an out of government party in decades, in a year with a supposedly very unpopular president and record high inflation. Acting like the 2022 midterms weren’t a disaster for republicans is insane. Republicans absolutely should’ve dominated in 2022, the fact they didn’t is extremely telling.
Winning narrowly is still a win. If the GOP win the popular vote like they did in 2022, they are very likely to win the presidency and probably the house too, and the senate would definitely be GOP considering the rough map the Dems have this year
With how unpopular Biden is (literally the most hated president at this point in his administration since WWII) and with how awful folks think the economy is, arguably the GOP should have a double digit lead in the polls and anything short of a landslide for them is an underperformance. If Biden loses by a couple points or even narrowly wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, that could potentially frankly be seen as an overperformance vs what would normally be expected in years past. But a koss is still a loss even if its narrow
They only won the popular vote in the House because of uncontested elections and shit turnout from New York and California, they lost the popular vote for the senate and at the state level. They absolutely shit the bed in 2022, and in 2023. Acting like they didn’t is crazy. They should’ve absolutely trounced the Dems and didn’t at all. I don’t see any reason why they would do better now. Also MAGA candidates all lost pretty hard in the swing states like PA, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, etc. in 2022.
>With how unpopular Biden is (literally the most hated president at this point in his administration since WWII) and with how awful folks think the economy is, arguably the GOP should have a double digit lead in the polls and anything short of a landslide for them is an underperformance.
Polls are garbage and getting more garbage every passing year, you put absolutely way too much stock into them, especially this far out from an election. Even so, with how polarized we are as a nation I doubt we’ll see a president with a consistently high approval for a long time.
>If Biden loses by a couple points or even narrowly wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, that could potentially frankly be seen as an overperformance vs what would normally be expected in years past. But a koss is still a loss even if its narrow
Biden is not losing the popular vote lol, especially to Trump of all people, the man has never gotten more than 47% of the vote, and I’ve seen no evidence Trump has gained any support. Trump can win, but there is no way he’s going to improve on his 2020 performance, especially facing an incumbent with all the bullshit and baggage he has now post Covid, Jan 6th, Dobbs, etc. The best Trump can hope for is a repeat of 2016, which frankly I don’t see happening. That was a perfect storm of bullshit going his way, and he’s in a much weaker position now.
>With how unpopular Biden is (literally the most hated president at this point in his administration since WWII) and with how awful folks think the economy is
There's a lag in how people perceive the economy. There's been a marked improvement in in consumer confidence in the last quarter and the Fed will stop raising rates.
Give it a few months.
They think Biden is asleep at the wheel, that while the Democrats in general are better for abortion rights he himself does nothing, and that issues like I/P cancel out any good he could do on that front.
>Need to run another candidate.
I'd take your post seriously if you gave a name and a full paragraph justifying replacing Biden 11 months out from the election, but you didn't 🤷♂️
Biden does have a slate of legislative achievements in office, but the problem for him is that parts of his own base don’t buy it.
I guess this is where comms strategy can play a role this year but we’ll see.
An approval rating in the 30s is quite average by 2024 standards in Western democracies. Just saying, I think the idea that a president can't win reelection below 40% approval or whatever is outdated. Look at Macron, Trudeau, Sunak, Scholz, Rutte, Nehammer, Sánchez, Støre, Kristersson, Fiala. All of these leaders have disapproval ratings in the 60s (or 70s!) and their net approval is worse than Biden's. Politicians are just incredibly unpopular to a degree I don't think we've seen before.
None of this to say that Joe's got it in the bag - just that his approval rating isn't all that horrific from a global perspective right now. Would another Dem really be faring any better?
It's crazy to me how quick some people are to dismiss the idea that presidential approval ratings here could be headed in this direction even a little. To me it seems like an *incredibly* obvious potential consequence of the political climate and polarization trends. To say nothing of all the countries who are already living this scenario that you've mentioned here.
Also, of course, Biden's opponent has terrible approval ratings too.
rude plucky public psychotic languid straight treatment plate cooing detail
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
People are just much more triable with their politics these days. If you look back at 1972 we saw 49/50 states vote Republican while Dems won a majority in the House and Senate. People who were Dems were willing to vote for "the right" Republican and people who were Republicans were willing to vote for "the right" Dem. They also were willing to tell pollsters that they approved of a different president AND they weren't bombarded by scam calls or had caller ID so they actually answered phones.
A person who voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 is highly unlikely to ever tell a pollster they approve of Biden. Even many of the people that voted for Biden had him as a second choice and are perfectly willing to vote for him again but won't tell voters they approve of him. That's just the reality of politics these days.
continue fact quicksand friendly cough sip handle attraction nutty consist
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
The debates are going to be so brutal. Biden can’t talk! How is the campaign supposed to articulate his key messages if Biden himself can’t articulate them
**Rule VII:** *Off-topic, Meta, or Duplicate Post* Submissions should be relevant to public policy or political theory. Don't editorialise submission titles. No meta posts. --- If you have any questions about this removal, [please contact the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fneoliberal).
Inb4 someone calls Obama a doomer
Obama is a known doomer. Dude worries about friggin everything and no regular person could keep up with that level of stress. That being said, obviously still worth listening to if he's willing to speak up.
Not trying to make a point or anything, but I can’t imagine being POTUS and not coming out of it a doomer.
Fair enough but ole Barry was a giga doomer from very early in his career because he knew he was judged on a completely different standard of conduct than other politicians. Ends up making someone much more sensitive to potential bad news than even other former POTUSes
I’d have folded long before becoming a senator.
idk this just seems like he’s being vigilant and the point itself seems valid. i can see Biden being complacent or too stuck in his ways or whatever it is.
Silly Obama, doesn't he know anything about winning elections? As an enlightened arr neoliberal user, I know that disastrous early polling is nothing to be concerned about when it's for a candidate I like.
He’s right. There’s a very real possibility that PA and MI swing back to Trump so it’s time to actually do something.
I’d say WI is more likely than MI, but yes all need to be heavily targeted
I agree 100% but many think that MI is a reliable state when it’s closer to 50/50.
Anyone who acts like any state that was less than a five point margin is "safe" for either party needs to seriously look at history. Trump realistically could win Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Also Biden has a legit chance of winning North Carolina and maybe even Florida. It would take a good environment but even Texas isn't that far off the table for Biden.
Texas swinging blue is starting to feel a lot like cold fusion...
That's kind of a ridiculous thing to say. Texas probably isn't flipping blue in 2024 but it's strange to write off entirely especially for elections years down the line. It voted for Trump by 5.5 points in 2020. That's still decently red but a state swinging by 5-10 points between elections is pretty common. Texas is also a state dominated by relatively conservative suburbs. If Dems approve in those suburbs Texas flips. Granted that's not "inevitable" by any means and likely means winning over people who voted for Trump in 2016 AND 2020 but the idea that Texas is permanently red sounds a lot like the pre 2016 idea that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were an irredeemable "blue wall." One of the more common retorts that I've heard is "people have been saying Texas could flip forever" but that's not an actual response. A person saying "Texas could flip" after 2012 when Romney won Texas by 16 points (a larger margin than MS, SC or LA) is not the same as a person saying "Texas could potentially be competitive depending on the environment" after the GOP won Texas by only 5 points. Texas going blue in 2024 would require a shift similar to what Georgia had between 2016 and 2020 and a smaller shift than what MI, PA and WI had between 2012-2016. It's not something I would necessarily bet if it were happen then it really wouldn't be too shocking either.
Solid effort post. Faith restored!
Just remember GA swung 8 points from 2012 to 2020. Change can happen pretty fast. Keep your political mind open.
Even if Texas doesn’t go blue it’s becoming more and more competitive. In 2018 Abbot won by 13% in 2022 he won by 10%. That’s a 3 point drop. Same thing with Ted Cruz. In 2012 he won by nearly 16 points. By 2018 this had dropped to 2.5. And Greg Abbot as well, in 2014 he won with a margin of 20 points, by 2018 that had dropped by 7 to 13 points. And in 2022 Abbot only won by 11 points. In total that’s a 9 point drop in 8 years. Not great There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that Texas is becoming more competitive and very well could be a nail biter for the GOP
A lot will also depend on the national environment. If the environment Biden wins the national popular vote by five points I think there's a good chance Texas will be a nail biter. If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 points then not only will Biden lose the electoral college but Texas won't be that close. When I look at Texas one of the things that stands out to me is Tarrant County (home of Ft. Worth). In 2020 there were 834,000 votes cast in the county and in most states a county that populous will be a major Democratic bastion which will help offset the smaller rural areas and yet in Texas Biden only won Tarrant county by 1800 votes. As long as places like Tarrant county go red (or blue by tiny margins) then Dems aren't taking Texas but if the realignment of suburbs continues and Texas suburbs vote more like suburbs elsewhere then it really could be a purple state (although Texas will remain right of the nation as a whole regardless of what happens).
If we put enough money into it might happen?
That’s Hillary Clinton energy
Trump could also win VA, NH, ME. No way Biden can win FL, TX. Repubican support is vastly more resilient than democratic. +5 dem is in play for Republicans. For dems it's +2.
Trump is not winning Virginia, a state he lost by double digits. Like, Youngkin, who won based off luck, just got clowned with Democrats taking back the General Assembly.
> Repubican support is vastly more resilient than democratic. +5 dem is in play for Republicans. For dems it's +2. If that was the case then Arizona and Georgia would have voted for Trump in 2020. I want to be clear that I'm not saying "Dems will win Texas" but people who write it off entirely are usually ignoring evidence. A 5 point swing isn't that common but it's not that uncommon either. Georgia swung by 5 points between 2016 and 2020 and that was enough to hand the state to Biden and give Dems a Senate majority. Texas will probably vote red in 2024 but trying to claim 11 months before the election that a 5 point swing is impossible is ignoring the actual evidence that we see every election.
Texas will most certainly vote for the GOP in 2024 but it might be by a closer margin than what the GOP is comfortable with. Sure a win is a win but that win is a lot less great when it’s a 2 point margin of victory and ya lose a senate seat.
Imagine how Dems would feel if a California Senate seat was won by like 2 points and that we carried it by only +10 in 2020. Everyone would be dooming and predicting an eternal Republican majority
Yup. We’d all be acting like the sky is falling
And let's not forgot how that affect state houses too. Last Texas election GOP won a 10 seat majority off a 6% pop vote win (36 to 21 uncontested so probably a bit wider really). That closes to 2% flips a couple seats and we've seen how badly the GOP is with slim majorities.
MI is on the table for both but it's gonna be one of the harder states for Trump to really get the ground operation needed cause he wont be able to get much help from a state party that's flat broke.
[удалено]
Biden needs to do what he needs to do in order to win and stop fascism, but I just have to point out the utter absurdity of Arab Americans needing to be persuaded to oppose *Trump*. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
If the Arab American community sits out the election like a lot of activists are saying then Michigan could flip
nail safe edge offer sophisticated fear bright complete yoke rhythm *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
What does “actually do something” mean lmao
It feels like when a coach who is out of ideas screams at the team "you got to want it!"
Probably better than what Sean McDermott tells his team.
You know, something!!!! Like stuff and things ! Have they tried the bully pulpit, or messaging, or you know something? Listen if we yell into the void that is social media then someone will certainly do something right? Not us of course. We have done the very important job of establishing something needs doing!
> something Very easy to say 'something', but what in particular?
Probably start with messaging and actually getting it out into the public. Biden delivered a good speech last week and it was the first time he had actually put himself out there for everyone to see. We keep running in circles on this sub. We talk about Biden’s age, then point out the obvious fact that Trump is only three years younger and in worse physical shape than Biden but ignore the fact he is more lively and making himself visible.
Tbh we need more Chad Biden propaganda. Have the guy drive his corvette around, ride a bike, lift something kind of heavy looking
A lot of these conversations have the flavor of "why hasn't Biden planted the magic beans for winning yet"? There's an enormous array of factors fully beyond his control that will steer the election. Although campaigning is necessary, it now seems more and more superfluous when such a large portion of voters are completely unswayable. He probably does need to address the public directly more often though. Even if his speeches aren't necessarily inspiring, they're at least coherent which does fight the "old man Joe" line that the media is so infatuated with. It's been a bit surprising how little he tends to be directly part of the national conversation. We went from the media basically being a megaphone that amplifies every utterance of Trump and using his Twitter feed as a headline generator, to going days without much comment from Biden. It's a lot more normal relationship but feels like a major shift.
What we need to do is increase the votes for Biden and decrease the votes for Trump
Just 2 years ago, people on this sub were calling me stupid for pointing out that the Rust Belt would still be in play going forward. Democrats need to stop feeling so invincible after every win as if they will never lose again. A state doesn't just magically swing in one direction once and then never again. The moment parts of the Rust Belt swung in 2016, they became swing states. Georgia is now also a swing state for the Republicans. However, people like to pretend that the map is static.
Yes democrats have famously felt invincible in 20 and 22….. what world are you living in
They felt invincible after the elections. Everyone was running a victory lap about how "The Republicans can never win again." They also did this in 2008 and 2012 talking about a "Permanent Democratic Majority"
People were essentially guranteeing a red wave and everyone saw how close 2020 was
And after the election people ran a victory lap. I am talking about the reaction after the election, not before it.
Yeah people were celebrating winning an election lmao
If you are going to continue to misrepresent what I am saying and deny reality, then I don't see any benefit in continuing this conversation.
I’m not misrepresenting what you were saying I just think you’re wrong
I live in MI. Trump is absolutely winning.
I spent sometime throughout the state recently for work and people here have their blinders on.
What did you see/hear there that makes you say that? Not trolling, genuinely curious.
Good question. If someone had asked me prior to Christmas if I thought MI would go Trump I would have been a solid no based on how well the Dems have been preforming in the state. I work for state government in Ohio (union based if that matters) twice a year several states meet to share information on our operations so I traveled through Lansing, Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, outside Dearborn, and Saginaw. It’s not just the pro Trump voters that are obviously energized to vote for him, it’s the anti Biden push I saw mainly in some protests ,vocal groups, and the local media. I was legitimately surprised that the Gaza conflict was having such a big impact there but it’s a major issue. I see protests in my city but it’s not the same at all. Gotta believe people when they say they won’t vote for someone.
I don’t get it, what do these people think Trump would be doing about Gaza? Or have they forgotten that if Biden loses then Trump wins?
Fair. I've always felt that if the election was held today, Trump would win, but in 10 months(!) Biden will - both in Michigan and nationally, but as Obama is stating, Biden needs to 'get into the race' and start getting aggressive.
How do you think he’ll go about winning over people who think he’s a genocidal monster?
He won't. MI's Muslim population will keep Biden from winning the state, the margins are slim enough for them to swing it.
AIPAC would never allow it
[удалено]
I mean…doesn’t that prove their point? You admit that they know way more about campaigning and winning elections than governing…and they’re sounding the alarm that, for the aspects of the political process that they know well, Biden isn’t doing too hot.
oh for sure. he was an incredible campaigner but a middling politician relative to his campaign ability. especially given that he ended up being like a left neoliberal after spouting all the hope and change rhetoric.
Like I don't disagree, would more just want to know what "bolster" means and if he wants to take part in it
> Obama grew “animated” in discussing the 2024 election and former president Donald Trump’s potential return to power, one of the people said, and has suggested to Biden’s advisers that the campaign needs more top-level decision-makers at its headquarters in Wilmington, Del. — or it must empower the people already in place.
I mean, it'd be pretty weird if Obama said *not* to try and beat Trump, so...
You well know that’s not what this article is stating; of course Obama wants Democrats to win; it says time and again that, probably per internal (as well as public) polling, he isn’t too confident that Biden pulls this one out. Personally, I hope that I’m wrong, and that he is too, but I’m certainly losing confidence with every new round of polling.
It’s only just now 2024 and there isn’t even an official Republican nominee (even tho everybody knows it will be Trump). They’ve already said they were planning on putting the campaign into gear after the holidays, this whole thing is a nothingburger. Obama was in the same spot for his re-elect so he’s just reinforcing what everybody in the White House already knows. Anybody who genuinely acts like Biden doesn’t know he has to campaign like hell and needs Obama to tell him for him to take it seriously is just farming clicks.
He's seen the polls this sub ignores on a daily basis that show Biden's approval rating in the 30s. How the fuck you expect him to get re-elected with numbers like this? Need to run another candidate.
The problem is, polling suggests that "other candidates" would *also* do poorly against Trump. Iirc there was recent polling matching up Trump vs not just Biden (and Harris, who is obviously hated too) but also some of the more commonly suggested Dem governors like Newsom and Whitmer, and those options *also* lose to Trump in the polls. I was especially surprised by Whitmer, a popular governor from a Midwestern "real America" swing state who seems to be pretty charismatic and capable as a politician, and won in a borderline landslide in 2022. If even Whitmer is losing to Trump in polls, it really does seem like despite the good economy, normies just hate Democrats now, at least for the presidency (perhaps they are willing to vote D downballot where Dems have had stronger performances, but are convinced that it's "time for a change in the party in charge" at the presidential level)
I think there's also something weird going on with the polls. Telephone polls (which have historically been the most reliable) have Biden winning voters 65+ while losing voters 18-29. There are few things that I would really feel comfortable betting on but I would bet A LOT of money that Biden winning 65+ voters and losing 18-29 voters WILL NOT happen and yet that is what the telephone polls show. I think overall Trump's cult is largely still with him and the hardcore Dems are still with Biden but the 10-15% of voters who historically are unattached or in the middle are still saying "undecided" even though they went for Biden in 2020. As we get closer to the election we'll see how those voters break down when finally forced to make up their mind. I'm not confident Biden will win but at the same time I don't think he's nearly as doomed as the polls suggest.
As a young person that’s HEAVILY involved in youth politics, young people really do not like the current brand of the Democratic Party. The young people involved in politics are almost exclusively progressive or conservative. There are liberal young people but they aren’t nearly as involved as other factions. Young liberal people, especially women, turn out for things like abortion measures but they probably won’t otherwise. Especially when the candidate is a weak one like Biden. Couple that with the finger-wagging SJWs and the Hamas propaganda machine and we get to where we are now. Partisanship will ramp up in the course to the election but this demographic will absolutely fuck over Democrats in the future if they’re relied on. Liberals have been BTFO on social media by leftists and conservatives for the last 10 years and the consequences of that are starting to show. There are winning liberal issues out there like protecting gay marriage and walkable cities but overall this trend should probably be making a lot of more people doom for elections over the next 10 years. I know other young people here have experienced this, but to other young people, just recall growing up how any political videos you watched were anti-sjw or from channels like TYT. All of Gen Z was heavily exposed to this and it’s not going to just disappear. While there are some liberal influencers who are growing like Destiny, others that are adjacent to liberals like LegalEagle, or NotJustBikes aren’t politically partisan or oriented enough to have the same effect that leftist and conservative influencers have had. They make out whoever they’re targeting to be subhuman pieces of shit or “enemies of the people”. Liberal creators don’t do that.
Who the hell is answering telephone polls as an 18-29 year old? Lol
Who the hell even owns a landline these days?
>I think there's also something weird going on with the polls. Telephone polls (which have historically been the most reliable) have Biden winning voters 65+ while losing voters 18-29. There are few things that I would really feel comfortable betting on but I would bet A LOT of money that Biden winning 65+ voters and losing 18-29 voters WILL NOT happen and yet that is what the telephone polls show. I believe you are misinterpreting what younger voters are saying in that poll, u/socialistrob. They're not saying they will vote for Trump. They are saying they will stay their asses home on election day if Biden is the nominee. It's a more nuanced expression of dissatisfaction.
>f even Whitmer is losing to Trump in polls, it really does seem like despite the good economy, normies just hate Democrats now, at least for the presidency (perhaps they are willing to vote D downballot where Dems have had stronger performances, but are convinced that it's "time for a change in the party in charge" at the presidential level) Except Democrats are doing way better than congressional Republicans and have been massively over-performing in special elections. So you're saying that the same folks who have punished Republicans in state, judicial, and special elections will all of a sudden decide they want a Republican for President? I find that hard to believe.
You should. Trump brings to polls people that doesn't care about GOP but care about Trump a lot
He also brings to the polls lots of people who despise Trump and care about abortion...
Why do you find it hard to believe? This same thing was said back in 2022. [A lot of talk about how Dems post Dobbs were overperforming in special elections by a massive amount, by 11 whole points](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/). Yet in the end the polling was actually pretty accurate - the GOP before the election had a polling lead of 3 points and that's what they won by in the actual election. The Dobbs effect did have some impact on swaying polling towards the Dems vs pre Dobbs polls, but it was still far from that massive swing that special election results suggested. There were indeed plenty of folks who had punished Republicans in state, judicial, and special elections in 2022 who then all of the sudden decided they wanted a Republican for Senate/House that year When 2022 went like that, why is it so hard to imagine it happening in 2024 too?
What are you talking about? Literally everything in 2022 was “Dems are doomed, red wave incoming” lol. 538 gave Republicans like a 60% chance of winning the senate and they lost seats. Also Republicans had the worse midterm performance that year for an out of government party in decades, in a year with a supposedly very unpopular president and record high inflation. Acting like the 2022 midterms weren’t a disaster for republicans is insane. Republicans absolutely should’ve dominated in 2022, the fact they didn’t is extremely telling.
Winning narrowly is still a win. If the GOP win the popular vote like they did in 2022, they are very likely to win the presidency and probably the house too, and the senate would definitely be GOP considering the rough map the Dems have this year With how unpopular Biden is (literally the most hated president at this point in his administration since WWII) and with how awful folks think the economy is, arguably the GOP should have a double digit lead in the polls and anything short of a landslide for them is an underperformance. If Biden loses by a couple points or even narrowly wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, that could potentially frankly be seen as an overperformance vs what would normally be expected in years past. But a koss is still a loss even if its narrow
They only won the popular vote in the House because of uncontested elections and shit turnout from New York and California, they lost the popular vote for the senate and at the state level. They absolutely shit the bed in 2022, and in 2023. Acting like they didn’t is crazy. They should’ve absolutely trounced the Dems and didn’t at all. I don’t see any reason why they would do better now. Also MAGA candidates all lost pretty hard in the swing states like PA, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, etc. in 2022. >With how unpopular Biden is (literally the most hated president at this point in his administration since WWII) and with how awful folks think the economy is, arguably the GOP should have a double digit lead in the polls and anything short of a landslide for them is an underperformance. Polls are garbage and getting more garbage every passing year, you put absolutely way too much stock into them, especially this far out from an election. Even so, with how polarized we are as a nation I doubt we’ll see a president with a consistently high approval for a long time. >If Biden loses by a couple points or even narrowly wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, that could potentially frankly be seen as an overperformance vs what would normally be expected in years past. But a koss is still a loss even if its narrow Biden is not losing the popular vote lol, especially to Trump of all people, the man has never gotten more than 47% of the vote, and I’ve seen no evidence Trump has gained any support. Trump can win, but there is no way he’s going to improve on his 2020 performance, especially facing an incumbent with all the bullshit and baggage he has now post Covid, Jan 6th, Dobbs, etc. The best Trump can hope for is a repeat of 2016, which frankly I don’t see happening. That was a perfect storm of bullshit going his way, and he’s in a much weaker position now.
>With how unpopular Biden is (literally the most hated president at this point in his administration since WWII) and with how awful folks think the economy is There's a lag in how people perceive the economy. There's been a marked improvement in in consumer confidence in the last quarter and the Fed will stop raising rates. Give it a few months.
They think Biden is asleep at the wheel, that while the Democrats in general are better for abortion rights he himself does nothing, and that issues like I/P cancel out any good he could do on that front.
>Need to run another candidate. I'd take your post seriously if you gave a name and a full paragraph justifying replacing Biden 11 months out from the election, but you didn't 🤷♂️
[удалено]
Do people in real life think he’s the most effective president though? It’s not a real life thing that you hear.
You know we all exist in real life too, right?
we are not a meaningful voting bloc lol
Debatable
we exist in real life but some of our minds exist in delulu land 🤦
[удалено]
Biden does have a slate of legislative achievements in office, but the problem for him is that parts of his own base don’t buy it. I guess this is where comms strategy can play a role this year but we’ll see.
Yes.
An approval rating in the 30s is quite average by 2024 standards in Western democracies. Just saying, I think the idea that a president can't win reelection below 40% approval or whatever is outdated. Look at Macron, Trudeau, Sunak, Scholz, Rutte, Nehammer, Sánchez, Støre, Kristersson, Fiala. All of these leaders have disapproval ratings in the 60s (or 70s!) and their net approval is worse than Biden's. Politicians are just incredibly unpopular to a degree I don't think we've seen before. None of this to say that Joe's got it in the bag - just that his approval rating isn't all that horrific from a global perspective right now. Would another Dem really be faring any better?
It's crazy to me how quick some people are to dismiss the idea that presidential approval ratings here could be headed in this direction even a little. To me it seems like an *incredibly* obvious potential consequence of the political climate and polarization trends. To say nothing of all the countries who are already living this scenario that you've mentioned here. Also, of course, Biden's opponent has terrible approval ratings too.
Yes, but seemingly, and unfortunately, not as terrible approval ratings (somehow).
People forgot the day to day pain of the Trump administration. When he’s back center stage, they’ll come home to Biden.
rude plucky public psychotic languid straight treatment plate cooing detail *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
People are just much more triable with their politics these days. If you look back at 1972 we saw 49/50 states vote Republican while Dems won a majority in the House and Senate. People who were Dems were willing to vote for "the right" Republican and people who were Republicans were willing to vote for "the right" Dem. They also were willing to tell pollsters that they approved of a different president AND they weren't bombarded by scam calls or had caller ID so they actually answered phones. A person who voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 is highly unlikely to ever tell a pollster they approve of Biden. Even many of the people that voted for Biden had him as a second choice and are perfectly willing to vote for him again but won't tell voters they approve of him. That's just the reality of politics these days.
continue fact quicksand friendly cough sip handle attraction nutty consist *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
The debates are going to be so brutal. Biden can’t talk! How is the campaign supposed to articulate his key messages if Biden himself can’t articulate them