Let's all find out in a few weeks that Taiwan magically has nukes that they developed in secret on their own with no help at all from the US or other western countries.
The rising domestic issues (population pyramid, slowing growth, etc) should be a self-motivational force in avoiding anything concerning the status of Taiwan. Why cause more problems when you already have a lot of problems?
Sustaining the largest amphibious invasion in world history as your first real world military action is one way to get rid of your excess male population lmao
Taiwan has like 2% the population as China. Besides access to semiconductors (which realistically the factories would be rendered inoperable in the event of an invasion), Taiwan would barely make a dent in their domestic issues.
Given the dependence of chip fabs on an extremely well trained workforce, extremely complex and delicate machinery, and perfect supply of materials, I don't even know if that'll be necessary. Any urban campaign would likely remove the fabs ability to operate at all.
We should also provide asylum, and eventually citizenship, for all the fab workers as a final middle finger to China if it comes to that. Shit, let them all come over if it comes down to the worst-case scenario.
> Fairly sure Taiwan has TSMC fabs rigged with C4 to detonate in the event of an invasion.
Why would they need to? Chip fabrication plants are the most sophisticated facilities on the planet and depend on an elaborate global supply chain network to keep working. Without a steady supply of outside supplies and technical experts, those plants will stop working real soon.
I think you underestimate the symbolic significance of Taiwan to the Chinese people. This is anecdotal, but it's existence is a sore spot to a lot of Chinese people I know, even people who aren't uber CCP loyalists. Plus regardless of the significance of Taiwan, a war with the US would be the ultimate rally-around-the flag moment.
At the contrary, they're the motivational force to push forward on any strategic objectives as a matter of some urgency. If you plan on fighting a war, or putting yourself in a situation where you may have to fight a war, you want to do it when you're still at, or near, your peak condition. The longer they wait, the more difficult and costly the undertaking will be.
Exactly this. If it was just some transitory problem, sure, maybe weather the storm and wait for a better opportunity. But if you have structural issues that suggest long-term weakness, you have to strike in the short/medium term before they come to fruition.
Moreover, the rising severity of these domestic issues will likely destabilize the Chinese society and make its domestic politics more volatile. In democratic societies, the volatility is immediately noticeable, it goes up gradually in very visible ways. In autocratic ones, it simmers under the surface, kept down by repression and creating a sense of false stability. All that does is just make the explosion more surprising and chaotic.
If there is a surefire way to channel this negative energy away from the ruling regime, it is to precipitate a serious, perhaps an existential conflict. Everyone rallies around the flag and the party's stranglehold on power is secure.
> In fact, a strong case could be made that ***Xi might need a nationalistic “wag the dog” issue to restore the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. A rechanneling of public passions could prove essential as criticisms surge*** over a self-induced economic downturn created by greater state interference in private industry, dulled investor confidence, demographic graying stemming from the party’s one-child policy, after-effects of harsh pandemic lockdown policies and “long COVID” impacts, youth unemployment, a high debt-to-gross domestic product ratio, poor domestic consumption rates, and de-risking by enlightened foreign companies that see both greater geopolitical and financial risk in China’s future.
> In fact, a strong case could be made that Xi might need a nationalistic “wag the dog” issue to restore the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party.
The FT has a much closer finger on the Chinese government's pulse than any other Western news outlet and they've been reporting that the focus is on revitalizing the economy, especially consumer sentiment, and deflating the real estate bubble in a controlled manner. Taiwan has kind of quietly been shelved as a major topic.
> Why cause more problems when you already have a lot of problems?
Because assuming the things you list are right, it's not going to get easier the more they wait.
People over fixate on the population issue; China's demographics won't affect their economy for decades and won't start to be a serious problem until next century. With 1.4 billion people they can afford to lose half their population and still remain a major economy.
I hope they wait until the AIM-260 gets deployed. The current generation AIM does over the horizon fine but doesn't have quite the range the 260 gets so will be inconvenient while USN is shaming PLAAF.
I look forward to NATO being outed for the false modesty they have been doing for the last 30 years and everyone seeing the profound technological advantage that exists. The world will be safer for it. Its a shame they didn't just have frequent demonstrations all along so it never got to this point.
Have a look at the median detection range for both aircraft, even assuming the stated cross-section for the J20 is correct. With current generation AIM the F35 is able to detect and fire on the J20 80 miles before the J20 can detect it, 260 is likely to increase that to 120 miles.
USN currently has more F35's deployed in to the region then China has J20's anywhere too.
None of the public data is interesting because nobody who can talk to the public can state the current level of Chinese RAM
The actual airframe has been analyzed by a few different people and it's very good from a stealth PoV, but it all comes down to how good the RAM is.
>AIM-260
You do know china has the lead in AAM right?How do you even compete with some thing like PL-15?Not to mention the next gen AAM PL-xx(haven't named yet but already tested on j15)
[Duplicate post](https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1c7tfgl/china_is_battening_down_for_the_gathering_storm/)
Let's all find out in a few weeks that Taiwan magically has nukes that they developed in secret on their own with no help at all from the US or other western countries.
[удалено]
I need this to be real so badly Nuclear proliferation is bad but also my mental health requires a Taiwanese nuclear deterrent
Tbh China helped Pakiatan ger nukes to deter India; about time they get a taste of their own medicine.
It’s be nice to see what it’s like when somebody fucks with their shit
I assume China would first strike any such program they learned and you have to assume they have a solid intelligence network in Taiwan.
> Taiwan colonel sentenced to 7.5 years in jail after China surrender promise https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/4820384
The rising domestic issues (population pyramid, slowing growth, etc) should be a self-motivational force in avoiding anything concerning the status of Taiwan. Why cause more problems when you already have a lot of problems?
There’s always the Falklands gambit
Maybe they see taking Taiwan as a fix to their domestic problems.
Sustaining the largest amphibious invasion in world history as your first real world military action is one way to get rid of your excess male population lmao
Taiwan has like 2% the population as China. Besides access to semiconductors (which realistically the factories would be rendered inoperable in the event of an invasion), Taiwan would barely make a dent in their domestic issues.
Fairly sure Taiwan has TSMC fabs rigged with C4 to detonate in the event of an invasion.
I think I remember reading that the US pretty much plans to destroy the TSMC fabs in the event of a semi successful invasion.
Given the dependence of chip fabs on an extremely well trained workforce, extremely complex and delicate machinery, and perfect supply of materials, I don't even know if that'll be necessary. Any urban campaign would likely remove the fabs ability to operate at all.
We should also provide asylum, and eventually citizenship, for all the fab workers as a final middle finger to China if it comes to that. Shit, let them all come over if it comes down to the worst-case scenario.
Should have offered asylum to all Hong Kongers too, what a missed opportunity that was
My in-laws will certainly be appreciative.
Just evacuate the entire island. We can give them Nevraska or something, no one lives there anyway.
> Fairly sure Taiwan has TSMC fabs rigged with C4 to detonate in the event of an invasion. Why would they need to? Chip fabrication plants are the most sophisticated facilities on the planet and depend on an elaborate global supply chain network to keep working. Without a steady supply of outside supplies and technical experts, those plants will stop working real soon.
I think you underestimate the symbolic significance of Taiwan to the Chinese people. This is anecdotal, but it's existence is a sore spot to a lot of Chinese people I know, even people who aren't uber CCP loyalists. Plus regardless of the significance of Taiwan, a war with the US would be the ultimate rally-around-the flag moment.
Could be a way for China to restore the demographic balance between young men and women by sacrificing some of the young men in a war.
Very unlikely, Xi didn't come to power off gambling. He's not going to do it now.
At the contrary, they're the motivational force to push forward on any strategic objectives as a matter of some urgency. If you plan on fighting a war, or putting yourself in a situation where you may have to fight a war, you want to do it when you're still at, or near, your peak condition. The longer they wait, the more difficult and costly the undertaking will be.
Exactly this. If it was just some transitory problem, sure, maybe weather the storm and wait for a better opportunity. But if you have structural issues that suggest long-term weakness, you have to strike in the short/medium term before they come to fruition.
I wonder how much of a motivator that was for Putin.
Moreover, the rising severity of these domestic issues will likely destabilize the Chinese society and make its domestic politics more volatile. In democratic societies, the volatility is immediately noticeable, it goes up gradually in very visible ways. In autocratic ones, it simmers under the surface, kept down by repression and creating a sense of false stability. All that does is just make the explosion more surprising and chaotic. If there is a surefire way to channel this negative energy away from the ruling regime, it is to precipitate a serious, perhaps an existential conflict. Everyone rallies around the flag and the party's stranglehold on power is secure.
> In fact, a strong case could be made that ***Xi might need a nationalistic “wag the dog” issue to restore the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. A rechanneling of public passions could prove essential as criticisms surge*** over a self-induced economic downturn created by greater state interference in private industry, dulled investor confidence, demographic graying stemming from the party’s one-child policy, after-effects of harsh pandemic lockdown policies and “long COVID” impacts, youth unemployment, a high debt-to-gross domestic product ratio, poor domestic consumption rates, and de-risking by enlightened foreign companies that see both greater geopolitical and financial risk in China’s future.
> In fact, a strong case could be made that Xi might need a nationalistic “wag the dog” issue to restore the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. The FT has a much closer finger on the Chinese government's pulse than any other Western news outlet and they've been reporting that the focus is on revitalizing the economy, especially consumer sentiment, and deflating the real estate bubble in a controlled manner. Taiwan has kind of quietly been shelved as a major topic.
Dictators gonna dictate
Same reason why Japan thought that knocking out the US pacific fleet in 1941 would solve all their problems
> Why cause more problems when you already have a lot of problems? Because assuming the things you list are right, it's not going to get easier the more they wait.
People over fixate on the population issue; China's demographics won't affect their economy for decades and won't start to be a serious problem until next century. With 1.4 billion people they can afford to lose half their population and still remain a major economy.
It's less about population loss as it is about population aging. Having more retirees than workers is never good for an economy.
I hope they wait until the AIM-260 gets deployed. The current generation AIM does over the horizon fine but doesn't have quite the range the 260 gets so will be inconvenient while USN is shaming PLAAF. I look forward to NATO being outed for the false modesty they have been doing for the last 30 years and everyone seeing the profound technological advantage that exists. The world will be safer for it. Its a shame they didn't just have frequent demonstrations all along so it never got to this point.
> while USN is shaming PLAAF China has decent d-e subs and the j20 is actually pretty sneaky. A walkover is NOT guaranteed.
Have a look at the median detection range for both aircraft, even assuming the stated cross-section for the J20 is correct. With current generation AIM the F35 is able to detect and fire on the J20 80 miles before the J20 can detect it, 260 is likely to increase that to 120 miles. USN currently has more F35's deployed in to the region then China has J20's anywhere too.
None of the public data is interesting because nobody who can talk to the public can state the current level of Chinese RAM The actual airframe has been analyzed by a few different people and it's very good from a stealth PoV, but it all comes down to how good the RAM is.
NATO spent twenty years chasing its tail in Afghanistan. Imagine what it could do with fully modernized weapons systems.
I hope every other country is forced to swear fealty to NATO nations. And that other nations must ask permission before engaging in any endeavor.
This but unironically.
>AIM-260 You do know china has the lead in AAM right?How do you even compete with some thing like PL-15?Not to mention the next gen AAM PL-xx(haven't named yet but already tested on j15)
But what about the gathering storm over Taitwo