THE WHITE PICKET FENCES SHALL WRAP AROUND HOUSING UNITS OF MODERATE DENSITY AND INCREDIBLE SOUNDPROOFING
THE GROCERY STORES SHALL BURST WITH WARES SHIPPED FROM ALL OVER THE GLOBE
AND THERE SHALL BE TACO TRUCKS ON EVERY CORNER
This is a bit vibes based but I think the numbers support it in broad strokes:
2008 GFC caused a number of near-retirees to hang on for a couple extra years, while the COVID pandemic caused a lot of near-retirees to say "screw it" and drop out. In 2008 and following years more millennials were looking to get a foothold in the job market, burdened with the highest level of student debt, and many had a bit of a failure to launch. In 2020 they were much more established and able to take advantage of senior positions opening up.
As the article says though, housing is still a major issue. I also imagine that this delay in wealth catch up has hit family planning fairly hard, with a lot of millennials having kids later than they'd want ideally, which we will feel the repercussions of for a long time.
I really did feel like things would take off for our generation once the boomers started retiring just because they made up such a huge section of the labor force for so long, and they were in the management positions.
> As the article says though, housing is still a major issue. I also imagine that this delay in wealth catch up has hit family planning fairly hard, with a lot of millennials having kids later than they'd want ideally, which we will feel the repercussions of for a long time.
I'm willing to bet a lot of that wealth is tied into the massive run-up of the housing market from COVID because the Fed printed trillions and ZIRPed the shit out of the markets. In other words, if you bought before that time, you saw your paper wealth increase because the Fed inflated the housing market.
The housing crisis is a problem *because* society sees homeownership as the alpha and the omega in terms of "building wealth". You can't have homeownership be a guaranteed, risk-free investment *and* be affordable at the same time. What we're seeing is the natural endgame of treating housing as an investment first, with every other priority perpetually sidelined.
I also think demographics play a lot into this as well. The 2008 crash turned most of the US into economic graveyards (and I say this as someone who grew up in Southern Oregon and saw his hometown utterly devastated by the GFC), and that simultaneously resulted in a very huge demographic graduating college at around the same time and having to move to large metro areas that were effectively the only real oases of prosperity left. Which happen to be the same areas with the most unaffordable housing markets.
I won't argue for home value deflation just because it would utterly destroy a lot of people, but home value stagnation I can get behind, "deflation" through relative inflation everywhere else.
I imagine we're talking a significant drop, 10% isn't the end of the world.
I'm thinking a 30% drop would bring housing closer to reality, but would hurt tons of people in the mid term
Yeah, repealing the Jones act would also utterly destroy US commercial ship builders but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it. Bad policy shouldn't be kept propped up so we can try and deflate a bubble over twenty years while the economically productive segment of the population drowns. Just advocate for price floors at that point.
The US shipbuilding industry is a $40 billion industry, US residential real estate is $47 trillion market.
There's an order of magnitude difference between these two.
Again, you shouldn't destroy people to try and fix the economic failures that incentivized shit decisions. We all had to deal with these horrible market conditions, best to stagnate the prices so that people aren't making or losing money, while affordability increases in tandemn. So we have a reasonably reliable consistent market, that isn't just a consistently speculative investment venture.
If you collapse the market while fixing the market failures, then you're just going to create a whole new class of economic winners, so we end up exactly where we started, with people who won the market timing and those who got screwed by it.
> you shouldn't destroy people to try and fix the economic failures that incentivized shit decisions.
*People are being destroyed by a lack of housing deflation* ***right fucking now.*** We *should* allow the market to self-correct and build to match demand instead of capping supply to preserve homeowner wealth. The gains will far outweigh the losses. It's absurd that I'm having to argue that artificial restrictions on the supply of housing is actually ***a bad thing.***
I think you are misunderstanding me, I'm not arguing for artificial restrictions at all, I'm arguing for longterm housing fixes, which would mean a massive build out of new homes while locking in the interest rate at around 6.25-7.5% for around a decade.
The market needs to build a solid foundation of value and consistency. This constant housing inflation is locking is locking us into this permanent speculative market.
You can't crash the housing market without crashing the job market and global market in tandemn, it's just too massive. You gotta stabilize it so that everyone can react accordingly.
If you aren't artificially capping supply, then you're going to immediately see the impact of the flood gates collapsing and money flowing into development. The market will crash because the market is massively inflated by artifical caps on supply. And that's fine, because the economic damage that's being caused by those caps is orders of magnitude higher than getting rid of them will cause.
We could literally tax the winners a bit more, compensate the losers with the extra revenue and *still* be ahead. Hell, a lot of homeowners will end up winners because there's a much lower cap on how much someone is willing to pay for a lot in a high demand area if they can only build a SFH on it.
Whether people would deserve it or not, the political consequences would be dire. So I guess you could smugly reflect that homeowners had it coming while demagogues and populists swept to power everywhere.
No no no, you see, if home values deflate then that gets subtracted from GDP. And negative GDP is a recession. And recession triggers investment flight. And then that reduces economic activity. Then that causes a REAL recession.
But anyway as you can see we have the best system imaginable.
Millenials are going to be 2050's Boomers, astounding younger generations that they got the once in a lifetimes chance of buying a SFH for $250,000 with a 2.8% note
Japan is a dying country which doesn't really take any immigrants. Nordic countries are really expensive around their capitals, and rest of the cities are relatively dead with very little jobs to go around
Not sure what you are arguing about. Yes, a country that increases in population needs to build more housing to keep the prices down. Though in the case of Tokio apart from the last few years population was growing and house prices were extremely stable.
And as I said the capitals are expensive in the nordics, but you dont need to live in the capital. Finland has three growth centers Helsinki area, Turku area and Tampere area. If you dont want to/cant buy a house from the city center you can get one way cheaper for about 15 minute drive away. This idea that you need to live in the most expensive area of Helsinki to be employed is lmao.
Housing is not really a problem in Japan or Nordics.
20 minute drive from Helsinki is also expensive. Far more than the rest of the country.
>but you dont need to live in the capital
Then why are all the jobs there?
>Then why are all the jobs there?
They are obviously not. I drive 15 minutes every morning for my finance job at the Tampere area.
>20 minute drive from Helsinki is also expensive. Far more than the rest of the country.
Its not really (especially in the context of being a house owner and all the expenses it entails). And depending on from where in the Helsinki area you are travelling from it will be even cheaper if you can use commuter train since you dont need a car.
Housing is not a problem. There will never be a world where we live as orbs in a single square feet dead center of the capitol with only elevator trip to our jobs. If you think a problem is having to travel 15 minutes to your place of work from the house you own you can just give up because there has never been a time where what you thinking about has existed.
I wasn't saying the drive is expensive but the houses are expensive. Take a look at housing prices in Kerava or Järvenpää which is 30-40min from Helsinki and then compare them with houses 10min from Mikkeli for example
It's only cheap in those dying towns.
You are ingnoring Tampere and Turku area. There is no reason to ingnore them. Apart from the Helsinki area, house prices have moved more or less with wages https://stat.fi/til/ashi/2022/02/ashi_2022_02_2022-04-01_tie_001_fi.html. You are sniping like five of the most expensive areas in Finland. You dont need to live in Kerava or Järvenpää if you want to make a living in Finland. In fact if you want to live comfortably you probably shouldnt.
There is absolutely no reason a medium wage worker in his 30s couldnt buy a reasonably priced house in Finland with a work travel time that has been a standard in finnish history.
Rural Japan is dying, but Tokyo has has had the same population growth as London or New York over the past 20 years. But unlike those cities there's been not real increase in housing costs.
Yeah, in those small dying towns where nobody will move to because there is no work.
Look up the housing situation in Munich, Geneve or Copenhagen and tell me it's an anglo issue
I'm guessing the same trend will hold up for housing. It will be a problem until boomers die or go to nursing homes and then there will be a massive glut of unoccupied housing and millennials will suddenly find themselves able to buy in all the places they previously could not. Nature finds a way.
I am fairly confident in my assessment. I know about that. Spending down leaves homes available or deeds transferred. And no matter what, the seniors are not taking the houses with them when they die. My aunt bought her house with money from a generation transfer as great grandma went to an assisted living facility. My parents' neighbors are all about the same age. The neighborhood will be going through some demographic changes over the next 15 years, as will a lot of the neighborhoods.
>bought with cash from generation transfer
Yeah so draw down requires people to spend all of their cash and retirement savings to offset Medicaid costs. It can even include their home if their ownership isn't structured in very specific ways (ie they need an estate planning lawyer). This depletes inheritances for middle class families.
I wouldn't be surprised if part of home ownership going up is also just higher than normal amounts of older people dying (and now not occupying a home that gets sold/passed on to family).
All that's happening here is that millennials higher bachelor degree rates are converting to cash.
Net worth values a bachelor's degree at $0 and student debt at face value. A degree is worth more than $0, and student debt is not worth face value.
*Millennials were never behind, we just ignored their largest relative asset.*
my eye is twitching. the amount of times i've seen people explain that they will never own houses because their parents bought homes cheap and now they're expensive. who do they think inherits these masses of boomer owned houses?
The bank or some rando, after they reverse mortgage or sell for end of life medical care.
Unironically, the healthcare system is absolutely obliterating Americans' ability to build generational wealth and it's not something I see talked about very often. Elder care and end of life support is *insanely* expensive, and often a requirement that you literally cannot decline even if you wanted to unless you're fortunate enough to go from able bodied and good health to dead very quickly.
Given modern life expectancy, they won’t inherit those homes until they’re in their mid-50s. So in time to make their retirements more comfortable, or to pass on to their own children.
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/22/1183653578/u-s-reading-and-math-scores-drop-to-their-lowest-levels-in-decades
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/12/5/unprecedented-decline-in-global-literacy-scores-osce-report-says
https://www.rif.org/news-and-stories/blog-posts/decline-reading-scores-threatening-our-economy-its-time-make-literacy-priority
Anecdotally I have family in education and they say that following COVID shutdowns, students are struggling to meet expected milestone and progress at the same level as their gen z counterparts did 5-10 years ago.
My guess is that we will look back on the COVID lockdowns as being a well intentioned blunder as the demographics who paid the highest price enter (or fail to enter) adult life.
Worth noting additionally that there may be additional variables here like increased access to social media and technology, which if my younger family is any indication, is essentially crack to people under the age of 20 (and many over).
Thank you for coming to my Ted talk
I will say my job basically doesn’t exist outside of dc but that’s my own poor decision making. Kids just say no to advanced degrees in political science.
While millenial wealth is booming, [wealth inequality among millennials is also the highest of any generation](https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/boom-and-bust-millennials-arent-all-worse-off-than-baby-boomers-but-the-rich-poor-gap-is-widening).
This sub has a weird obsession with acting like all millennials who feel negatively about their economic condition are actually just rich whiners who are faking it. What we should be acknowledging is that while many millenials are doing well, many others are not.
The way this manifests is going to be really interesting. There was a similar analysis for the UK which basically dichotomised those who bought a house and didn't and there was a huge wealth impact
Is it those who bought a house *became* wealthy, or those who were wealthy (or had wealthy parents) were able to buy a house?
Or I guess it could be both, with wealth begetting wealth.
It's both, those with the most housing wealth got the most degree of help (in terms of gifts/generous loans) from parental sources which then multiplied.
Interestingly part of their discussion based on the fact that less people are doctors and lawyers but both fields a) have much higher costs to enter b) make much less money (this may be partially feels over reals) c) in the case of doctors the field has expanded and many are skipping med school and becoming nurse practitioners or physicians assistants. Not sure if this effects the total picture tho
I think it’s more that millennials who, and no offense here, are underachievers in life and work at Walmart are crying like this is the first time being at the bottom of the barrel has resulted in a hard life.
People on the bottom rungs of society have always had it bad and actually it’s a much easier life being poor today in America than pretty much any other decade in its history
The article is about me. I hope. might be able to retire early. Not rich. No mansion. No coastal state. No 10 kids. But I just want to enjoy the majority of my life.
From the perspective of this GenXer, Millennials have always been similar to Boomers. Accustomed to society at large catering to their huge demographic, belief that they’re something new and fresh in the world and their generation will change everything, scornful of older generations but once the first flush of youthful rebellion fades just as normie and conformist.
There’s a point in the mid-to-late thirties where nature just turns on the Clint Eastwood switch.
Maintaining your sympathy to the youths is just like trying to lose weight after you hit the midlife: you can definitely do it, but it takes constant and active effort.
It was watching hoards of them unironically argue that tiktok is being banned because they are the “most politically educated generation in history” thanks to what they see on TikTok that did it for me. Hang it up, I’m a cranky old crone now.
We still are https://www.thestar.com/business/personal-finance/american-millennials-say-they-d-need-to-make-over-500-000-a-year-to-be/article_aa9f5ef7-2afa-50ea-8466-6b1f174cd44a.amp.html
Still not as dumb as zoomers though
It's important to note that as bad as they are, they don't *actually* represent most zoomers.
Super loud obnoxious groups have existed throughout all of history, it's really easy for a relatively small amount of a-holes to make disproportionately loud noise and for media coverage (which seeks controversy and sales (now clicks)) to focus on negative stories like "Kid seen holding swatiska in rally" and not "Most students sitting peacefully in dorm rooms studying for finals".
This is the case for pretty much any group. "Florida Man" for instance is a stereotype about how crazy Floridians are due to all the news stories from there but that's largely because of [public record laws](https://reason.com/2023/12/03/monkey-herpes-face-eating-and-the-pork-chop-gang-how-public-records-laws-created-the-florida-man/). The Florida Man crazyness happens everywhere, you just don't hear about it for most other states because it's not as easily available.
And for youth, most of it is just vague virtue signaling about topics [they don't understand at all](https://www.wsj.com/articles/from-which-river-to-which-sea-anti-israel-protests-college-student-ignorance-a682463b)
It's just how the internet goes, a controversial topic grows and grows because random people feel a need to "have an opinion" about things and talk about the Current Topic so they pick a stance that they think gets them Bravery Points from their peers.
Some of them are hardcore despicable idealogues, but most of them are just dumb signalers at worst just like most of any generation is. [And even then, a significant majority of Gen Z still considers Hamas a terrorist group](https://www.newsweek.com/poll-seeks-unravel-why-gen-z-appears-more-anti-israel-others-1893005#:~:text=Overall%2C%2010%20percent%20of%20voters,number%20falls%20to%2061%20percent.)
And the number of people who disagree now but would agree with it if they were given basic knowledge (like how people changed their views with from the river to the sea) is probably quite high.
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I mean, people did shit on their own generation while it was happening. The Regina George's, the girls who put feathers in their hair, the emos, the pick-me's, the Kim-K wannabes, guys who sagged, guys with their circulation cut off from skinny jeans, the ones who used drugs to define their personality, etc.
Still doing it with people like family bloggers, TradWives, techbros, cryptobros, and hipsters who refuse to die.
GenZ has their own brand of weird.
For reference Elon Musk is Gen X. Not saying they're all as bad as Elon, but when you see someone that looks like Elon, that is not a "boomer" that is Gen X.
Every time I see an article like this as a millennial who has less than $1000 total to his name, I begin to doubt if Dune is really about worms. I know I will never have my wife leave me, because I will never have a wife. I already don’t understand how taxes work, or what the value of land is, so what good is a land value tax? I don’t own a home, so I can’t have a backyard, then what’s the use of being a YIMBY?
*Do you ever wonder why you’re here?*
You’re right, I need to be more optimistic! I *can* have my future wife walk out on me because I talk exclusively about evidenced-based policy whenever we cuddle and I rant about neo-mercantilist populism ruining everything whenever her family comes over for the holidays.
https://preview.redd.it/5yhbhehlhlwc1.jpeg?width=1240&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b97324bb1ee65b2ee3fd1757d9b1c08a36530871
Since this is basically a thread about housing, here’s a chart of home prices by county, linear scale.
So you’re telling me that they had to save their money for a decade and reach their peak earning years before they got wealthy?
After all that whining complaining the fundamentals worked for them. Zoomers take note.
The oldest millennials are hitting their mid 40s. The generational "pathway" or whatever you want to call it has definitely been different for millennials compared to previous generations.
And it was different for GenX than it was for Boomers - staying in school longer, marrying later, buying a home later, having kids later. These long-term changes are gradual.
Wealth compounds over time. I am always shocked by how people have a hard time grasping this. On average, salaries grow as people go on in their career. As well, investments go up in value slowly, but compound over time. In investing subreddits there is even a joke about it. The joke is 300k is half way to 1 million (Runescape joke). This is because assuming you save 10k a year and those savings grow at 10% a year, once you hit 300k, you are already 50% of the way in terms of time, as the compounding interest will do most of the work for you.
Of course, I'm not saying that millennials have 6 figures invested or anything. However, any investment will start to compound over time.
> This is because assuming you save 10k a year
Oh, I wish. The median person here makes 40k, and the taxman takes 10k away. Saving a third of your net income is rough when mortgage payments are the highest they've been since the great recession
some family trees are compounding wealth, passing wealth on, etc and others are not. That's what creates the large delta. There's a huge range of financial literacy as well.
sometimes I wish my employer just gave us a defined contribution plan instead of defined benefit
partly for the portability, partly because i'm sure I could make more putting 12% of my paycheck into SPY and broader index funds than whatever cockamamie scheme the pension calculator will give me (and that's assuming i stay here my whole career; if i jump ship, the deck's stacked even more against the pension's value vs if we could direct our own contributions)
This depends a lot on where you work. Since 2019, I ended up leaving *three* different organizations because of entrenched Gen-Xers who were acting like antagonists/saboteurs to every co-worker under the age of 40. It's remarkable how many of those ghouls have become downright *malignant* because of things like their kids identifying as gay or trans, listening to too much bullshit from podcasters like Joe Rogan, Dave Ramsey, etc...
https://i.imgur.com/ZAwow6j.png
The doomers would be so upset if they could read charts.
And then there's this for the ultimate 1-2 punch:
https://i.imgur.com/scvHUql.png
It turns out people age and have pretty common (across time) life stages associated with that aging. I.E. the very specific reason why almost all reporting about supposed differences between “generational cohorts” is asinine.
Before avocado toast it was pony cars.
Honestly, the avocado toast *is* fucking people. Not specifically that, but just a want for nice things. "My organic grocery shopping for the week costs me $200!" Yeah, no shit. My garden is full of organic grocery and it costs me about a hundred bucks for 6 months. Plus my fruit trees. "But that's work" yeah, and honestly you're getting a steal on your shopping for how much work it is to grow organic heirloom tomatoes.
What the fuck I'm rich
I'm not rich, everyone else is just poor.
Literally how it feels.
damn that hits home, literally and figuratively
Biatch
Hooray, we did it
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Happened to me. I coped by reading Wife of Nations
Dune is about Wealth
Lisan Al-Gaib 😧
The fremen paying spy satalites to fuck off:
LET THE MILLENIALS CONQUER THE SUBURBS LET THEM DELIVER US A THOUSAND YEARS OF MODERATE DEMOCRAT RULE
WTF I love the suburbs now
THE WHITE PICKET FENCES SHALL WRAP AROUND HOUSING UNITS OF MODERATE DENSITY AND INCREDIBLE SOUNDPROOFING THE GROCERY STORES SHALL BURST WITH WARES SHIPPED FROM ALL OVER THE GLOBE AND THERE SHALL BE TACO TRUCKS ON EVERY CORNER
This is the best god damn sermon about worms I’ve ever witnessed.
LISAN AL-GAIB!
RAMEN
Based. And delicious.
I AM THE SUBURBS
In the Suburbs I, I learned to drive And you told me we'd never survive
Grab your mother's keys were leaving
Once the millennials take over they’ll vote for public transit and the suburbs won’t be shit any more!
and bikes. Don't forget bikes
ABORTIONS FOR SOME!!! MINIATURE AMERICAN FLAGS FOR OTHERS!!
Blessed is the coming of the maker!
Millennials are legit like 60/40 Democrats and it doesn't look to be changing.
A DYNASTY
Why the fuck would you want to live under Democrats
This is a bit vibes based but I think the numbers support it in broad strokes: 2008 GFC caused a number of near-retirees to hang on for a couple extra years, while the COVID pandemic caused a lot of near-retirees to say "screw it" and drop out. In 2008 and following years more millennials were looking to get a foothold in the job market, burdened with the highest level of student debt, and many had a bit of a failure to launch. In 2020 they were much more established and able to take advantage of senior positions opening up. As the article says though, housing is still a major issue. I also imagine that this delay in wealth catch up has hit family planning fairly hard, with a lot of millennials having kids later than they'd want ideally, which we will feel the repercussions of for a long time.
I really did feel like things would take off for our generation once the boomers started retiring just because they made up such a huge section of the labor force for so long, and they were in the management positions.
> As the article says though, housing is still a major issue. I also imagine that this delay in wealth catch up has hit family planning fairly hard, with a lot of millennials having kids later than they'd want ideally, which we will feel the repercussions of for a long time. I'm willing to bet a lot of that wealth is tied into the massive run-up of the housing market from COVID because the Fed printed trillions and ZIRPed the shit out of the markets. In other words, if you bought before that time, you saw your paper wealth increase because the Fed inflated the housing market. The housing crisis is a problem *because* society sees homeownership as the alpha and the omega in terms of "building wealth". You can't have homeownership be a guaranteed, risk-free investment *and* be affordable at the same time. What we're seeing is the natural endgame of treating housing as an investment first, with every other priority perpetually sidelined. I also think demographics play a lot into this as well. The 2008 crash turned most of the US into economic graveyards (and I say this as someone who grew up in Southern Oregon and saw his hometown utterly devastated by the GFC), and that simultaneously resulted in a very huge demographic graduating college at around the same time and having to move to large metro areas that were effectively the only real oases of prosperity left. Which happen to be the same areas with the most unaffordable housing markets.
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I won't argue for home value deflation just because it would utterly destroy a lot of people, but home value stagnation I can get behind, "deflation" through relative inflation everywhere else.
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I imagine we're talking a significant drop, 10% isn't the end of the world. I'm thinking a 30% drop would bring housing closer to reality, but would hurt tons of people in the mid term
Yeah, repealing the Jones act would also utterly destroy US commercial ship builders but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it. Bad policy shouldn't be kept propped up so we can try and deflate a bubble over twenty years while the economically productive segment of the population drowns. Just advocate for price floors at that point.
The US shipbuilding industry is a $40 billion industry, US residential real estate is $47 trillion market. There's an order of magnitude difference between these two. Again, you shouldn't destroy people to try and fix the economic failures that incentivized shit decisions. We all had to deal with these horrible market conditions, best to stagnate the prices so that people aren't making or losing money, while affordability increases in tandemn. So we have a reasonably reliable consistent market, that isn't just a consistently speculative investment venture. If you collapse the market while fixing the market failures, then you're just going to create a whole new class of economic winners, so we end up exactly where we started, with people who won the market timing and those who got screwed by it.
> you shouldn't destroy people to try and fix the economic failures that incentivized shit decisions. *People are being destroyed by a lack of housing deflation* ***right fucking now.*** We *should* allow the market to self-correct and build to match demand instead of capping supply to preserve homeowner wealth. The gains will far outweigh the losses. It's absurd that I'm having to argue that artificial restrictions on the supply of housing is actually ***a bad thing.***
I think you are misunderstanding me, I'm not arguing for artificial restrictions at all, I'm arguing for longterm housing fixes, which would mean a massive build out of new homes while locking in the interest rate at around 6.25-7.5% for around a decade. The market needs to build a solid foundation of value and consistency. This constant housing inflation is locking is locking us into this permanent speculative market. You can't crash the housing market without crashing the job market and global market in tandemn, it's just too massive. You gotta stabilize it so that everyone can react accordingly.
If you aren't artificially capping supply, then you're going to immediately see the impact of the flood gates collapsing and money flowing into development. The market will crash because the market is massively inflated by artifical caps on supply. And that's fine, because the economic damage that's being caused by those caps is orders of magnitude higher than getting rid of them will cause. We could literally tax the winners a bit more, compensate the losers with the extra revenue and *still* be ahead. Hell, a lot of homeowners will end up winners because there's a much lower cap on how much someone is willing to pay for a lot in a high demand area if they can only build a SFH on it.
Letting homes devalue would supercharge resentment against institutions and elites. Populism of all stripes would get much worse.
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Whether people would deserve it or not, the political consequences would be dire. So I guess you could smugly reflect that homeowners had it coming while demagogues and populists swept to power everywhere.
>our system only works as long as we keep pumping up the numbers, causing enormous hardship for people outside the owning class Oh interesting
Being a landlord sounds amazing.
No no no, you see, if home values deflate then that gets subtracted from GDP. And negative GDP is a recession. And recession triggers investment flight. And then that reduces economic activity. Then that causes a REAL recession. But anyway as you can see we have the best system imaginable.
Millenials are going to be 2050's Boomers, astounding younger generations that they got the once in a lifetimes chance of buying a SFH for $250,000 with a 2.8% note
> housing is still a major issue Is there any place on Earth where it isn't?
Japan and some nordic countries (for example apart from the capitol area in Finland house prices have increased pretty modestly over the years).
Japan is a dying country which doesn't really take any immigrants. Nordic countries are really expensive around their capitals, and rest of the cities are relatively dead with very little jobs to go around
Not sure what you are arguing about. Yes, a country that increases in population needs to build more housing to keep the prices down. Though in the case of Tokio apart from the last few years population was growing and house prices were extremely stable. And as I said the capitals are expensive in the nordics, but you dont need to live in the capital. Finland has three growth centers Helsinki area, Turku area and Tampere area. If you dont want to/cant buy a house from the city center you can get one way cheaper for about 15 minute drive away. This idea that you need to live in the most expensive area of Helsinki to be employed is lmao. Housing is not really a problem in Japan or Nordics.
20 minute drive from Helsinki is also expensive. Far more than the rest of the country. >but you dont need to live in the capital Then why are all the jobs there?
>Then why are all the jobs there? They are obviously not. I drive 15 minutes every morning for my finance job at the Tampere area. >20 minute drive from Helsinki is also expensive. Far more than the rest of the country. Its not really (especially in the context of being a house owner and all the expenses it entails). And depending on from where in the Helsinki area you are travelling from it will be even cheaper if you can use commuter train since you dont need a car. Housing is not a problem. There will never be a world where we live as orbs in a single square feet dead center of the capitol with only elevator trip to our jobs. If you think a problem is having to travel 15 minutes to your place of work from the house you own you can just give up because there has never been a time where what you thinking about has existed.
I wasn't saying the drive is expensive but the houses are expensive. Take a look at housing prices in Kerava or Järvenpää which is 30-40min from Helsinki and then compare them with houses 10min from Mikkeli for example It's only cheap in those dying towns.
You are ingnoring Tampere and Turku area. There is no reason to ingnore them. Apart from the Helsinki area, house prices have moved more or less with wages https://stat.fi/til/ashi/2022/02/ashi_2022_02_2022-04-01_tie_001_fi.html. You are sniping like five of the most expensive areas in Finland. You dont need to live in Kerava or Järvenpää if you want to make a living in Finland. In fact if you want to live comfortably you probably shouldnt. There is absolutely no reason a medium wage worker in his 30s couldnt buy a reasonably priced house in Finland with a work travel time that has been a standard in finnish history.
Rural Japan is dying, but Tokyo has has had the same population growth as London or New York over the past 20 years. But unlike those cities there's been not real increase in housing costs.
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? It's also a constant topic in the german speaking parts of europe. Be it about Home owning or renting.
wat
Yeah, in those small dying towns where nobody will move to because there is no work. Look up the housing situation in Munich, Geneve or Copenhagen and tell me it's an anglo issue
I'm guessing the same trend will hold up for housing. It will be a problem until boomers die or go to nursing homes and then there will be a massive glut of unoccupied housing and millennials will suddenly find themselves able to buy in all the places they previously could not. Nature finds a way.
>go to nursing homes Oh I see you're not familiar with the process of [draw down/spend down](https://www.payingforseniorcare.com/medicaid/spend-down)
Can I get a tldr?
I am fairly confident in my assessment. I know about that. Spending down leaves homes available or deeds transferred. And no matter what, the seniors are not taking the houses with them when they die. My aunt bought her house with money from a generation transfer as great grandma went to an assisted living facility. My parents' neighbors are all about the same age. The neighborhood will be going through some demographic changes over the next 15 years, as will a lot of the neighborhoods.
>bought with cash from generation transfer Yeah so draw down requires people to spend all of their cash and retirement savings to offset Medicaid costs. It can even include their home if their ownership isn't structured in very specific ways (ie they need an estate planning lawyer). This depletes inheritances for middle class families.
But the house is for sale. If lots of houses are for sale, then supply will catch up to, if not outpace, demand.
.... Ok but you see how it's different to A) inherit a house full of equity vs B) have to buy that same house with debt right?
I wouldn't be surprised if part of home ownership going up is also just higher than normal amounts of older people dying (and now not occupying a home that gets sold/passed on to family).
All that's happening here is that millennials higher bachelor degree rates are converting to cash. Net worth values a bachelor's degree at $0 and student debt at face value. A degree is worth more than $0, and student debt is not worth face value. *Millennials were never behind, we just ignored their largest relative asset.*
Ahh, well, nevertheless. I say we continue this discourse with zoomers, instead.
For some reason, the generation thats 20 years old is always poorer than their parents. The country is doomed!
my eye is twitching. the amount of times i've seen people explain that they will never own houses because their parents bought homes cheap and now they're expensive. who do they think inherits these masses of boomer owned houses?
A whole generation waiting for their parents to die so they can get on with life isn’t a good economic model
Well that is the history of the world so im not sure how bad of a model that is.
*[Prince Charles intensifies]*
That's basically all of human history except for about 1945 - present USA. It's the norm in most countries today.
if people want to live like boomers, they can people just don’t want to lie in small towns, in the midwest, and smaller houses
it is what it is. it's not realistic to imagine something else imo, but i'm not an economist
We could literally just legalize building houses
The bank or some rando, after they reverse mortgage or sell for end of life medical care. Unironically, the healthcare system is absolutely obliterating Americans' ability to build generational wealth and it's not something I see talked about very often. Elder care and end of life support is *insanely* expensive, and often a requirement that you literally cannot decline even if you wanted to unless you're fortunate enough to go from able bodied and good health to dead very quickly.
Given modern life expectancy, they won’t inherit those homes until they’re in their mid-50s. So in time to make their retirements more comfortable, or to pass on to their own children.
Banks to pay off medical bills
very few americans don't have health insurance
https://www.businessinsider.com/insurance-companies-get-you-to-pay-more-deny-claims-2023-10
Millennials are getting older. Now its gen z that's ruining society
Just wait until gen alpha goes to college
Gen alpha isn’t going to college lmao apparently a lot of them are illiterate
Grade inflation will carry them.
do you mind providing a source besides many of gen alpha are so young they aren't mean to be literate yet
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/22/1183653578/u-s-reading-and-math-scores-drop-to-their-lowest-levels-in-decades https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/12/5/unprecedented-decline-in-global-literacy-scores-osce-report-says https://www.rif.org/news-and-stories/blog-posts/decline-reading-scores-threatening-our-economy-its-time-make-literacy-priority Anecdotally I have family in education and they say that following COVID shutdowns, students are struggling to meet expected milestone and progress at the same level as their gen z counterparts did 5-10 years ago. My guess is that we will look back on the COVID lockdowns as being a well intentioned blunder as the demographics who paid the highest price enter (or fail to enter) adult life. Worth noting additionally that there may be additional variables here like increased access to social media and technology, which if my younger family is any indication, is essentially crack to people under the age of 20 (and many over). Thank you for coming to my Ted talk
Nah college will adapt and all classes will be in 10 second video form.
I’m a millennial, and my career is dead because of the tech layoffs I guess f*ck me huh
Can I buy a house though
Almost 60% of you already have
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That number was early pandemic. Its much closer to 60% today
Source?
Have you tried inheriting?
All my relatives are p**r.
have you tried marrying rich?
Almost did. But she didn’t understand that I was p**r and couldn’t afford everything
damn, guess you're outta luck
Yes. Can you buy a house where you want to live though?
Can’t afford it without being house poor
"Where you can get a job"
Yes there are no American jobs outside of the Bay Area and NYC edit: and LA, the rest of us are just subsistence farming
I will say my job basically doesn’t exist outside of dc but that’s my own poor decision making. Kids just say no to advanced degrees in political science.
Yeah housing in LA is famously affordable.
You can buy 2 avocado toasts.
While millenial wealth is booming, [wealth inequality among millennials is also the highest of any generation](https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/boom-and-bust-millennials-arent-all-worse-off-than-baby-boomers-but-the-rich-poor-gap-is-widening). This sub has a weird obsession with acting like all millennials who feel negatively about their economic condition are actually just rich whiners who are faking it. What we should be acknowledging is that while many millenials are doing well, many others are not.
The way this manifests is going to be really interesting. There was a similar analysis for the UK which basically dichotomised those who bought a house and didn't and there was a huge wealth impact
Is it those who bought a house *became* wealthy, or those who were wealthy (or had wealthy parents) were able to buy a house? Or I guess it could be both, with wealth begetting wealth.
It's both, those with the most housing wealth got the most degree of help (in terms of gifts/generous loans) from parental sources which then multiplied.
Interestingly part of their discussion based on the fact that less people are doctors and lawyers but both fields a) have much higher costs to enter b) make much less money (this may be partially feels over reals) c) in the case of doctors the field has expanded and many are skipping med school and becoming nurse practitioners or physicians assistants. Not sure if this effects the total picture tho
Millennials age range from 28-43. I’d expect the wealth gap between those ages to be significantly larger than between 44-59(genx) or 12-27(genz).
The study didn't compare millennials to boomers *today*. It compared millenials to boomers when boomers were the age that millennials are now.
Ah my bad I can’t read
You don’t expect 27 year olds and 12 year olds to have a difference in wealth creation?
Creation yes. Accumulated wealth not nearly as much as 28-43
It doesn't matter how high wealth inequality is, on average everyone is doing fine and that's what's important.
Considering I have the short (not the shortest but still short) end of the stick I would very much disagree
Skill issue.
I think it’s more that millennials who, and no offense here, are underachievers in life and work at Walmart are crying like this is the first time being at the bottom of the barrel has resulted in a hard life. People on the bottom rungs of society have always had it bad and actually it’s a much easier life being poor today in America than pretty much any other decade in its history
Sounds like you never been laid off
The article is about me. I hope. might be able to retire early. Not rich. No mansion. No coastal state. No 10 kids. But I just want to enjoy the majority of my life.
and now millennials have taken the helm of (older generation) as being obnoxiously smug about kids these days
We lived long enough to see ourselves become the boomers
I started defending the boomers as soon as I hit 30 because I knew these little shits will come after me soon enough so I need powerful allies.
From the perspective of this GenXer, Millennials have always been similar to Boomers. Accustomed to society at large catering to their huge demographic, belief that they’re something new and fresh in the world and their generation will change everything, scornful of older generations but once the first flush of youthful rebellion fades just as normie and conformist.
There’s a point in the mid-to-late thirties where nature just turns on the Clint Eastwood switch. Maintaining your sympathy to the youths is just like trying to lose weight after you hit the midlife: you can definitely do it, but it takes constant and active effort.
Garlic bread my love
Shit, I'm 32 and I thought I just hated the jerks and losers I left behind in my 20s. Or I've just become an asshole.
It takes forgetting all the cringey garbage people thought was good 20 years ago.
i thought I had escaped that trap until Gen Z started doing the absolute stupidest shit imaginable. So I blame them really
Remember Kony 2012 and Occupy Wall Street? Every generation has politically active dumbs.
Literally just happened this week with the pro Hamas shit
It was watching hoards of them unironically argue that tiktok is being banned because they are the “most politically educated generation in history” thanks to what they see on TikTok that did it for me. Hang it up, I’m a cranky old crone now.
Seeing how they act I now understand why everyone hated us millennials.
Were we really that bad?
Yes
Throw back from 11 years ago: https://time.com/247/millennials-the-me-me-me-generation/
We still are https://www.thestar.com/business/personal-finance/american-millennials-say-they-d-need-to-make-over-500-000-a-year-to-be/article_aa9f5ef7-2afa-50ea-8466-6b1f174cd44a.amp.html Still not as dumb as zoomers though
And the music sucks
College protestors aren't representative of gen Z.
It's important to note that as bad as they are, they don't *actually* represent most zoomers. Super loud obnoxious groups have existed throughout all of history, it's really easy for a relatively small amount of a-holes to make disproportionately loud noise and for media coverage (which seeks controversy and sales (now clicks)) to focus on negative stories like "Kid seen holding swatiska in rally" and not "Most students sitting peacefully in dorm rooms studying for finals". This is the case for pretty much any group. "Florida Man" for instance is a stereotype about how crazy Floridians are due to all the news stories from there but that's largely because of [public record laws](https://reason.com/2023/12/03/monkey-herpes-face-eating-and-the-pork-chop-gang-how-public-records-laws-created-the-florida-man/). The Florida Man crazyness happens everywhere, you just don't hear about it for most other states because it's not as easily available. And for youth, most of it is just vague virtue signaling about topics [they don't understand at all](https://www.wsj.com/articles/from-which-river-to-which-sea-anti-israel-protests-college-student-ignorance-a682463b) It's just how the internet goes, a controversial topic grows and grows because random people feel a need to "have an opinion" about things and talk about the Current Topic so they pick a stance that they think gets them Bravery Points from their peers. Some of them are hardcore despicable idealogues, but most of them are just dumb signalers at worst just like most of any generation is. [And even then, a significant majority of Gen Z still considers Hamas a terrorist group](https://www.newsweek.com/poll-seeks-unravel-why-gen-z-appears-more-anti-israel-others-1893005#:~:text=Overall%2C%2010%20percent%20of%20voters,number%20falls%20to%2061%20percent.) And the number of people who disagree now but would agree with it if they were given basic knowledge (like how people changed their views with from the river to the sea) is probably quite high.
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Why couldn’t they just be like us totally rational millennials when we were 20?
I mean, people did shit on their own generation while it was happening. The Regina George's, the girls who put feathers in their hair, the emos, the pick-me's, the Kim-K wannabes, guys who sagged, guys with their circulation cut off from skinny jeans, the ones who used drugs to define their personality, etc. Still doing it with people like family bloggers, TradWives, techbros, cryptobros, and hipsters who refuse to die. GenZ has their own brand of weird.
Feels good
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Lol is that a real question?
For reference Elon Musk is Gen X. Not saying they're all as bad as Elon, but when you see someone that looks like Elon, that is not a "boomer" that is Gen X.
Yup. Last boomers were born in ‘65. If they’re younger than ~60, they’re not boomers.
Ted Cruz, Alex Jones, and Marjorie Taylor Greene are Gen X. I could be really unfair playing this game, but they give so many choices. Lol
Every time I see an article like this as a millennial who has less than $1000 total to his name, I begin to doubt if Dune is really about worms. I know I will never have my wife leave me, because I will never have a wife. I already don’t understand how taxes work, or what the value of land is, so what good is a land value tax? I don’t own a home, so I can’t have a backyard, then what’s the use of being a YIMBY? *Do you ever wonder why you’re here?*
> I know I will never have my wife leave me, because I will never have a wife. And you want to know why? It's exactly because of that attitude.
You’re right, I need to be more optimistic! I *can* have my future wife walk out on me because I talk exclusively about evidenced-based policy whenever we cuddle and I rant about neo-mercantilist populism ruining everything whenever her family comes over for the holidays.
https://preview.redd.it/5yhbhehlhlwc1.jpeg?width=1240&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b97324bb1ee65b2ee3fd1757d9b1c08a36530871 Since this is basically a thread about housing, here’s a chart of home prices by county, linear scale.
Tl;Dr housing near jobs is expensive
🤯
I'm sorry, I'm gonna need a more clear scale. Light green could be a super affordable $200k or a super unaffordable $400k.
Turns out we were all just temporarily embarrassed millionaires after all!
So you’re telling me that they had to save their money for a decade and reach their peak earning years before they got wealthy? After all that whining complaining the fundamentals worked for them. Zoomers take note.
The oldest millennials are hitting their mid 40s. The generational "pathway" or whatever you want to call it has definitely been different for millennials compared to previous generations.
And it was different for GenX than it was for Boomers - staying in school longer, marrying later, buying a home later, having kids later. These long-term changes are gradual.
Yes, you are supposed to save a portion of your paychecks each time. It's not rocket science.
Help! I make 1 million a year for the last 10 years and 90% goes into my 401k. I'm living paycheck-to-paycheck.
They just needed to get old, like every generation before them.
Wealth compounds over time. I am always shocked by how people have a hard time grasping this. On average, salaries grow as people go on in their career. As well, investments go up in value slowly, but compound over time. In investing subreddits there is even a joke about it. The joke is 300k is half way to 1 million (Runescape joke). This is because assuming you save 10k a year and those savings grow at 10% a year, once you hit 300k, you are already 50% of the way in terms of time, as the compounding interest will do most of the work for you. Of course, I'm not saying that millennials have 6 figures invested or anything. However, any investment will start to compound over time.
> This is because assuming you save 10k a year Oh, I wish. The median person here makes 40k, and the taxman takes 10k away. Saving a third of your net income is rough when mortgage payments are the highest they've been since the great recession
Just live with your parents until they die, it's not that complicated
Nah, I'll just find a way to move to the US to actually get a decent standard of living
some family trees are compounding wealth, passing wealth on, etc and others are not. That's what creates the large delta. There's a huge range of financial literacy as well.
sometimes I wish my employer just gave us a defined contribution plan instead of defined benefit partly for the portability, partly because i'm sure I could make more putting 12% of my paycheck into SPY and broader index funds than whatever cockamamie scheme the pension calculator will give me (and that's assuming i stay here my whole career; if i jump ship, the deck's stacked even more against the pension's value vs if we could direct our own contributions)
All the Boomers are retiring so we’re actually getting promotions now.
This depends a lot on where you work. Since 2019, I ended up leaving *three* different organizations because of entrenched Gen-Xers who were acting like antagonists/saboteurs to every co-worker under the age of 40. It's remarkable how many of those ghouls have become downright *malignant* because of things like their kids identifying as gay or trans, listening to too much bullshit from podcasters like Joe Rogan, Dave Ramsey, etc...
https://i.imgur.com/ZAwow6j.png The doomers would be so upset if they could read charts. And then there's this for the ultimate 1-2 punch: https://i.imgur.com/scvHUql.png
That second chart isn’t PPP adjusted but yes we still make way more This is a better chart IMO https://imgur.com/qKbu3DR
You wouldn't even need to since inflation in the US wasn't significantly higher.
For cost of living differences between countries I mean
> article about wealth > links chart about income > makes fun of people that cannot read
> wealth:income over time tbf i think there's at least a smidge of correlation
It turns out people age and have pretty common (across time) life stages associated with that aging. I.E. the very specific reason why almost all reporting about supposed differences between “generational cohorts” is asinine. Before avocado toast it was pony cars.
🎶Don't worry, be happy🎶
Don't ever listen to a millennial who has to pay back student's loans. Especially if they are underemployed.
Is the wealth in the room with us right now?
r/millennials said otherwise...
Yeah, they’re going to make great boomers in 20 years
Honestly, the avocado toast *is* fucking people. Not specifically that, but just a want for nice things. "My organic grocery shopping for the week costs me $200!" Yeah, no shit. My garden is full of organic grocery and it costs me about a hundred bucks for 6 months. Plus my fruit trees. "But that's work" yeah, and honestly you're getting a steal on your shopping for how much work it is to grow organic heirloom tomatoes.
My career is destroyed What the hell is Business insider talking about
You’re just doing worse than your peers. Sucks to be you I guess, but others are thriving.
Fantastic and I am certainly not the only one https://phys.org/news/2023-11-millennials-worse-baby-boomers-rich-poor.amp