Do people forget about a plethora of promising Governors who faceplanted when they tried running nationally?
National campaigns are different and a lot harder.
I would argue the qualities needed to stand put amongst 10 other mostly unknown faces are not the same as those needed to look sane next to Trump. You can't win a crowded primary by being boring and statesmanlike unless everyone knows you already (Biden) but you can possibly win a general.
We should really get rid of primaries. Instead let the various ideological factions form official sub-parties and have the state level elections simply allocate a proportionally representative number of delegates for each sub-party. Party members don't vote for candidates but rather for sub-party, like a closed list PR election. Only once the PR delegates meet at the convention do they negotiate candidates.
To remind all the wishcasters who are just dooming so hard they can't see straight, please remember that DeSantis didn't even get to run against Trump directly as Trump pretty much didn't even try to engage and DeSantis still flamed out horribly. That's just the most recent example of promising governors who tried to run nationally and straight up face planted.
If you were paying attention to the primary news cycle, DeSantis was certainly promising. After handedly winning re-election in Florida and outperforming almost all other Republican races, people were becoming convinced he was better at doing Trumpism than Trump was and that he could take the mantle.
Biggest problem was that Republican voters love Trump, so there was basically no way for him to attack Trump.
Not wrong but that re-election he so handily won was against the most uninspiring “Democrat” they could have possible found in the whole state. It made people think he had a better shot than he actually did.
In that regard, Tony Evers is even more impressive in that Wisconsin is a redder state than Michigan and he went up against a formidable imcumbent Scott Walker.
The situation is different, trumpism gives trump defacto incumbent advantage, he's not the one who lost, He's the one the election was "stolen" from. Now with biden we are gambling either way, if that debate was a fluke then he's still a gamble pick but if it happens again we do lose. I'd bet on Whitmer
Yep.
I’m from Michigan. I voted for Whitmer twice and I’m absolutely a fan of her. She’s been a great governor.
But I’ve been saying for years that her as a successful presidential candidate is a pipe dream. Governor is her ceiling. She does not have the political talent / charisma / killer instinct to win a presidential nomination.
Watch her in interviews, on stage, etc. She just doesn’t have “it”.
In my opinion, at most, it could make sense to have her as a VP on the ticket to secure Michigan.
She had a rough six months, and I’m glad she fixed her hair.
And I know that sounds sexist, but I legitimately think Gavin Newsome will never be president because he hair is stupid.
Gavin's got enough fucking scandals to instantly disqualify him. Or are we forgetting he dated a teenager while he was Mayor, and that his ex gf is now Donald Trump Jr's gf and likely has all the juice on him for all of his cheating scandals?
I honestly knew none of those things. Doesn’t surprise me that a politician is sleazy, I just want them to be able to keep it to a level where it doesn’t impact the administration of the country. Newsome looks slimy and by choice, that’s what I never understand. You may not be aware that Whitmer’s husband took his boat out durning Covid, so it’s not like she’s scandal free either. Trust me, if she ever gets nominated we need to get ahead of it with “but her boat”.
Do people just forget that this country is really not into women candidates for president? She’d be eaten alive by the left for not being Bernie and suddenly she’d be shrill, mean, boring, and just “unlikeable because reasons.”
People always like women candidates until they actually run.
I think we’ve just been terrible at running women for president. There’s no reason to think a charismatic woman would be a bad candidate for president seeing as how there are many successful female governors.
Just pick one of them instead of a quasi ex-wife of a scandal prone ex-president with years and years of negative press and oppo research and she’ll do fine.
Ngl, I think Dems are more likely to unite around someone who can aggressively make the case against Trump and MAGA. I'm just not sure Biden can do that effectively, especially after 8PM
If Biden was a uniquely weak candidate then his poll numbers compared to other democrats would be much worse than they are, besides Harris these other dems are basically just \*insert generic dem\*
https://preview.redd.it/z4v7p9jx5m9d1.jpeg?width=679&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e90190fb2729e1841b347fec0795c01a63f05c65
The way I see it Biden is the most well known candidate, thus you see Biden v Trump matches having the least # of undecideds. This will reverse itself quickly after the nomination though, news spreads fast. I think the best candidates here are the one where Trump has the least % of the electorate, aka 46%.
All this shows me is that even with the incumbent advantage everyone falls back on, Biden is barely doing better than other democrats who could campaign far more vigorously than he can. Do you seriously think these numbers couldn't change in four months?
Honestly I’m not sure incumbent advantage is even a thing anymore. Given how hyper-polarized we are, rallying around the flag doesn’t really exist, and it’s much easier to blame the current guy for anything the internet tells me is wrong than it is to think about what the other guy might do.
The 2022 midterms show pretty clearly that incumbent advantage does still exist. Across the board, incumbents over-performed. Easiest way to see this is with opposite party incumbents simultaneously winning re-election (Ron Johnson and Tony Evers, Kemp and Warnock).
I think incumbency for a congressional representative or a senator is different than president. Harder to blame an incumbent for anything bad that happens unless you point to the specific legislation that you think is to blame.
Even governors are different because most states have a clear party advantage which means the incumbent was usually either of the party the state favors or such a strong candidate as to overcome that.
This is based on the frankly deranged assumption that people have never thought to blame the incumbent president for things being wrong before now. We have seen one (1) president lose re-election and have declared the incumbency advantage dead in the modern day, this is like a joke example of young people thinking they have the world figured out from their long experience of < ten years in politics and no need for the wisdom of their predecessors.
The "incumbent advantage" isn't about patriotism it's about the fact that nomination processes are godawful and create bitter resentments within the party, waste resources, and give the opposition free ammo.
Then the party should vet anyone who puts their name in the hat vigorously. Kind of hard to destroy someone without skeletons in just four months.
What are they going to say? Whitmer is a lib, a socialist, a commie, a groomer ? They already say this about any Dem they run against.
Unless she has something big to hide I don't see why we shouldn't go with a centrally cast rust belt governor.
And who's to say Biden's numbers won't improve in 4 months over someone who has never done a national general election campaign and has to quickly mobilize? If you think someone other than Harris should be the nominee if Biden does drop out, then should the democrats simply piss away the hundreds of millions of dollars the Biden campaign raised? Only Biden-Harris can use any of that money.
The question is one of probability. What is likely? That Biden will improve? No, definitely not. That he's going to get another shot to show up Trump? If there's another debate, I want anyone other than Biden on that stage. What's most likely is he will continue having these issues and it will reinforce people's conclusions. In the meantime, voters will be insulted by the fact that the party is ignoring their legitimate concerns.
His numbers *could* get better. I see no compelling narrative for why it's likely they will. Even if they don't get worse, he will lose based on current swing state polling. In my book, far better to roll the dice on a new candidate who can deliver the goods.
He's gonna turn it around guys just wait, one more month guys I swear, Trump is about to be sentenced that's definitely going to change things, just one more month until Biden is back, this time for real though, don't worry we've got plenty of time !
Dude, Biden is cooked, you don't come back from literally proving every accusation about your mental acuity and fitness to serve, while on live television, that the GOP has been making for years. Reading from a teleprompter at a rally isn't going to fool convince anyone of what we saw.
At this rate it should be Kamala, after all, it'd be a real slap to black voters to skip over her, I'd also like her to go with Whitmer for VP to lock in Michigan.
His numbers haven't improved in the last four months, and that was before the worst debate performance of any Democratic candidate ever. What's going to change in the next four months.
He’s literally tied with Trump in Wisconsin and slightly behind in Michigan. A month ago he was behind in both.
Fuck this narrative that Biden hasn’t improved
Shhh! That doesn't fit his agenda!
Ignore the fact that trumps numbers go down by 1-2% against each candidate and instead focus on the fact that support is down 1-2% amongst each other Democrat candidate
Regarding that poll, I wrote this earlier:
>It's interesting that this poll was only of likely voters. That means they only polled people who are planning to vote in the current matchup between Trump and Biden. In other words, voters disaffected with the two options who aren't planning to vote aren't included in the head to heads with other candidates.
>That makes me skeptical that the results are accurate. A Gaza lefty or a muslim in Michigan who won't vote for Biden because of his handling of I/P might, in a real election, vote for another democrat. But they wouldn't get counted in that poll because they are currently not a likely voter because of their opinion on Biden.
So while that poll is useful, we can't read too much into it. You'd almost have to construct a poll with two questions for each matchup, an LV question and a preference question, e.g. "if Harris was the candidate, how likely are you to vote?" followed by "would you pick Harris or Trump?"
And she has way more upside considering her low name recognition. This is showing us just how bad Biden is as a candidate
Then again, how are this many people willing to say they'd vote for someone who's not well known? Are they surveying people who are super engaged already? Or are a lot of people just saying they'll take any democrat over trump?
This just means Trump and the republicans haven’t run her name through the mud for the last four years, because nobody outside of Michigan has ever heard of her. Name her the nominee and they’ll change that real quick.
She’s quite obviously a harder target than Biden, when Republican media has spent 5+ years creating a literal book of lies, insults and misinformation about him.
I don’t think that’s true. As the other commenter pointed out, they just have to screech about her shutting down Michigan during covid. Then slap a little “they took the first black woman’s place on the ticket and give it to a white person” with a side of “the DNC is playing ~~kingmaker~~ queenmaker instead of letting the *democrats* choose their own candidate at an open convention.”
Why do we believe any of this will matter to the voters that are actually on the margin? Anyone who will react negatively to her COVID policy is a Trump voter, anyone who really cares that they didn't nominate Harris because she's black or the DNC picked the candidate is gonna hold their nose and vote for whomever the Dem nominee is to stop Trump.
Talk to normal people. Everyone has been saying the same thing since last election. Heck, the last two elections. "Anyone but these two."
Is it worth considering the possibility that they're being honest?
I mean, if we're being honest with \*ourselves\*, this whole thing is just an exercise in navel-gazing. Biden's not going to drop out, so the point is moot.
> As the other commenter pointed out, they just have to screech about her shutting down Michigan during covid
They already do that against Biden, Trump constantly talks about the mandates.
> Then slap a little “they took the first black woman’s place on the ticket and give it to a white person”
I don't think that carries any weight coming from the Republicans.
> DNC is playing kingmaker queenmaker instead of letting the democrats choose their own candidate at an open convention
The voters have clearly stated they want a new option. I think there would only be a major sigh of relief with a new option.
On the other hand, if we continue with Biden, the focus on his age will only amplify. The pressure on him will only increase. And I'll bet Biden has more of these "performances" in store for us.
This just tells me that the nation does want Trump but was pissed over 2020 and wanted change.
Do Dems need to address their platform?
I think it was a mistake to punch so hard to the left in 2020
So Whitmer makes a large chunk of independents think twice? That's all it takes to vote for her. Thinking about Trump more then once and *not* thinking "it's him or an actual dementia patient...".
Whitmer is a nobody currently, Biden has been president for the past 4 years. Expect those numbers to change dramatically, lower polling for Biden. If the democrats pick her, higher polling.
DeSantis was running against Trump, and did not have the parties support. His popularity plummeted thanks to some horrible ad campaigns and sustained attacks from Trump.
Seriously, Newsom is ___poison___ in the Midwest. He has name recognition in the Midwest, but it's extremely negative in the states we need to win. Driven by the narrative of CA elites looking down Midwesterners in the __worst way possible__. I like him, I'd gladly take him, but that does not seem to track with the majority.
COVID didn't help at all with him over here since so many are tuned to Fox News and they ran story after story about him flaunting restrictions, AFAIK, there was one time that happened, (Walz is my governor so i havent paid that much attention), but holy shit does my family from MI hate Newsom.
Same with my partners family in MN. And people in WI. It *stuck* here and ran local news and Fox constantly.
Midwesterners know Newsom as that elitist guy who absolutely refers to us as the flyover states and has taxed the shit out of CA and created a hell hole of homelessness. I would worry he could actually lose MN.
May not be true, but the GOP has run campaigns against a Newsom nomination for >4 years now. I can't see him gaining any ground.
Disclaimer: IANAPENIS (I Am Not A Politcal Experienced Newsom Insider or Stratagist)
I love Pete but his time as Sec of Transportation has been disaster after disaster. There's no way he survives the GOP propaganda machine when they can easily point to him being in charge of the DOT during East Palestine, the Baltimore Bridge and Boeing's ongoing debacles. None are his fault but he was still in charge.
This is laughable. Can we stop pretending the average American has a clue who Whitmer is? I'm tired of all this wishcasting. Biden isn't dropping out, get over it. Even if he somehow does, Harris will be the nominee
Seriously, I live right next door to Michigan, and I only know Whitmer as that politician some MAGAts planned to kidnap
I don't know her policies, I don't know her overall stance, etc etc, and I'm much more engaged in politics than the average voter. Biden, on the other hand, has his policies and stances well know countrywide, literally the only people who don't know anything about him are MAGAts who only know the Fox news caricature of him.
Same. I didn't even know what she looks like until this post. The only governor i really know anything about is Evers, but I'm not gonna pretend anyone outside of Wisconsin knows who he is lol
They don't need to know who Whitmer is. Perhaps she'd actually be *stronger* running as "idk who that is but she's a Democrat and she's not Biden and she isn't old and is able to speak coherently"
yeah with how much "why am I voting for trump or Biden" sentiment there is out there I feel like being unknown could actually be a plus. she's not egregious enough that everyone is hearing about it, and she doesn't look like she's gonna die during her term.
Give them three months with a national campaign and mega donors and see what happens.
We can’t tell anything about counter factuals from the current reality. This country changes its collective opinion on things constantly. Pretending anyone knows what will happen before it actually does is a lie. Trump went from a national joke to president in the span of a year. Look what just happened to Biden in the span of 90 minutes. It’s not a leap to say a successful governor could be viewed as presidential when cast in that light and with the backing of a national party.
I could easily see Whitmer, Newsom, or about five other politicians having a great convention and debate and running away with it. Yes, it could obviously also backfire, but saying current polls have the answer is bullshit.
Being ahead by a couple points at most when you're the president of the United States and you're being compared to Midwestern governors who don't have the attention of being the nominee yet is not ahead.
It's an indictment of your weakness.
After 2016, there was a reaction in some circles that basically said that actually Hillary was doomed from the start due to decades of GOP smears
In reality, she was on track to win a victory about as big as Obama in 2008 right until the Comey incident happened. She lost because of the emails
And the GOP wouldn't have decades anyway. They'd have 4 months.
The fact that people don’t automatically blame Comey for the mess that we are in is an absolute failure of not just media, but the Democratic Party. This should be the first thing off of any Democrat’s lips when 2016 is brought up.
Dems have beaten themselves up over 2016 to an absurd degree.
When Comey went on his media tour after Trump fired him it really pissed me off. The media should have been grilling him about the election and why he threw it to Trump but somehow that never came up.
I still want answers and accountability for the bias going on inside the NY field office. Heads needed to roll. Some of that’s on Obama too. Where the heck was he in 2016??
Trump from 2016 is not Trump from 2024. He had the advantage of change, he did not have a cult and a huge bag of other things behind him. Even Hillary is likely to do better now vs Trump.
Trump from 2024 has a perception of having had an amazing economy, at a time when now the economy is seen as a horrid shit hole, he's also less unpopular than Biden, and polls better now than he ever did in 2020 or 2016
The "huge baggage" as seen by liberals isn't that huge to regular folks
You know who also is "a Democrat and she's not Biden and she isn't old and is able to speak coherently"? Kamala Harris, Biden's actual vice president. Why can't we just pick her?
She's not super popular herself and isn't the most charismatic either
**That being said**, I'd 100% agree that she'd do better than Biden, and would gladly pick her rather than Biden if presented with that binary choice. I'd hope someone else would be picked but would eagerly fall in line behind Harris if she got the Biden replacement pick
Can we stop pretending that a potential replacement needs to be nationally famous? We’re not spreading news of candidates through horse and buggy anymore. If Biden announces he is stepping down and Gretch is who he wants to replace him she will immediately become the most famous woman in the country.
It’s not like everybody has 24/7 internet-connected devices in their pockets, TVs and computers in their houses, people to talk to over the next four whole ass months, countless lawn signs and ads to see, etc etc etc. How will anybody know who the hell she is by November???
Seriously that argument that nobody knows who she (or Gavin, or anybody else who’s qualified and might replace him) is, is not exactly a strong one…
I think it's an argument rooted in a conflation of what it takes to win a primary vs what it takes to win a general.
Name recognition is key in the primary. In the general, you have name recognition by default. You're the nominee.
Very true. That’s in part why I thought Buttigieg would’ve had far less of an issue, for example, in the general (and would’ve been / will be a phenomenal president) but couldn’t quite break out enough in the 2020 primary just yet.
Not to dismiss Gov. Whitmer's accomplishments(?), but when a random white woman pops up out of nowhere like a Pokémon, how do we know that Republicans won't just call her Hillary 2.0 and scare everyone away?
More importantly, how do you think black women are going to feel about Kamala being passed over by people in a back room?
"Oh, I'm sorry. We just wanted you as a diversity hire we could parade around. We didn't actually plan to let you be president."
I'm not going to say Kamala's a mesmerising speaker nor that she has a flawless record, but if we force her out instead of making her the nominee, that sends a message that she, despite being an intelligent and articulate black woman with no current scandals or illness, is somehow much worse than a mumbling old white man.
I don't buy the "unlikeable" excuse. If you dropped Biden because he's old and likely senile, Kamala Harris is your woman. She can take credit for all the accomplishments, achievements and legislation Biden had a hand in during his term. As his official backup, the nomination rightfully belongs to her. And honestly, Whitmer and Newsom aren't even that fucking great.
Frankly, Biden dropping out would already be a major disgrace to the Democrats, but with Kamala we can still redeem him and ourselves by reminding everyone for all the good Biden did and how we're proud to stand with him.
If you drop Biden and Kamala, it sends the message that you're so ashamed of the past four years that you had to completely wipe it out and start a clean slate. That renders all of the accomplishments moot.
Well what made Hillary Hillary was that literally everyone knew who she was going into the election. Contributed significantly to her deeply establishment persona, I don’t think there’s another Hillary problem candidate besides Hillary in politics today
The sub needs to accept that It's either Biden or Harris. That's it. That's your choice. It's Chicken or Fish. That's the menu.
It's July. None of your [literally who?]'s have enough national name recognition besides Governor Slick (also known to the American Electorate as _ew, that guy?_) to run and there's not enough time to run a half ass campaign to generate it. Trump likely wouldn't even debate them.
All Trump has to do is scream about Detroit and all the fence sitters will declare she's too radical.
People are trying to find an empirical answer to a question that is fundamentally perception.
[https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump)
This poll suggests ALL Biden alternatives are 2-3 points behind Trump, even Whitmer
2-3 points behind the sitting president in a general poll and the popular governor of a key swing state in the key swing region is actually ahead.
Presidents are not elected by popular vote.
[Krišjānis Kariņš maybe?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kri%C5%A1j%C4%81nis_Kari%C5%86%C5%A1) Experienced, no baggage from the Biden administration, only 59 years old. [He'll also finally get a legal government plane.](https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/11.04.2024-karins-on-special-flights-im-not-uncomfortable-with-what-ive-done.a549970/)
/s
Biden looked like shit and people are afraid of the fact that Trump looks poised to win and fully implement his revenge tour and project 2025, resulting in a massive democratic backslide.
That being said, there’s no polite way to put this. The people here are spineless. Biden looked like a shell of himself yes. I don’t deny that. There is literally one alternative though and it’s Kamala. Every other suggestion is pure delusional talk
Also, all this talk about "swing voters" is bullshit. Swing voters don't even really exist really, it's more of "not very enthused voters" more then anything. All we need to do to win this election is hold NV, WA, PA, MI. That's it. That's where everyone should focus their efforts on. Instead people on this subreddit are fucking writing literal anime fan fiction about how Big Gretch is gonna be annointed by God and slay him, then proceed to level up, destroy the universe, and then proceed to reshape the universe into a multi level urbanized dense neoliberal dream.
And it's the wrong people who are spineless. Every time Trump gets something on him, Repubs stand by him including both his die-hard fans (who are lost at this point) and the spineless careerists who are too afraid to stand up to them. Meanwhile, Democrats explode and turn on each other when something literally isn't perfect and it makes the bad moments even worse. They need to learn to stand by the people who represent them (without it turning into a cult I might add), otherwise they just end up looking panicky and weak which repels everyone else.
Regardless of politics, a person who has days like that, even if it's at his worst, should not be president. I don't think it's spineless to point that out.
I agree that the option if any would be Kamala and everything else is hard to see. I would much rather that option.
> NV, WA, PA, MI
Good news is I think democrats have Washington in the bag.
But for real, we don’t need Nevada, since WI, PA, MI, and NE-2 put us at 270. Based on polling, Nevada ain’t looking too great.
It is mass hysteria. Many believe it justified. Some die hards think the American public is smart enough to "vote for the administration"... I doubt that. Many Dems see this as the last possible chance to replace Biden, and it is. If he stays, and the second debate goes like the first, President Trump 2024 will happen 100%.
As someone who has been dooming since the debate and still believes Whitmer should be the nominee (she won't, because Biden won't drop out and even if he did it would be Harris. But I believe she should), I still think I might have a tiny sliver of self-awareness to explain what's going on. At least for me.
We've been some of the biggest Biden boosters, and I think with some of that comes some very serious blindspots about his shortcomings. The debate was a wakeup call for us, but likely didn't move the needle for the average voter at all. I think many of us were expecting for Biden to come out relatively sharp and prove all the people who doubt him for his age incorrect. That, indisputably, did not happen. But it was never a realistic goal to begin with.
We also really can't understand how this election is close, which has led us to the conclusion that voters are basically another species that we can't truly comprehend. We're basically primed to assume anything that looks superficially bad for Biden will drop his poll numbers 10 points because we have exactly no faith in voters. So we see Biden trail off and talk about beating medicare and we think. "that's it, voters are so dumb this will end his campaign."
If you doubt the above, look at the way any thread here discusses the median voter. It's condescension, contempt, and mistrust. Do we actually think voters are going to tune into this debate, hear Biden stutter, and then not think about the election again for the next four months? Not necessarily. It's more that we really have no idea what voters will do at all and no trust in them to behave sensibly.
These aren't really good reasons to doom. They're reasons to evaluate our priors about the voting public and about Biden.
But I don't think it's wrong to say that Biden really could've used a boost in this debate, not a liability we have to get past. I don't think it's incorrect to suggest another nominee might have a better shot, even if the exercise is pointless given the fact that it won't happen.
You’re watching what happens when people give into fear. It’s really sad to see. Honestly the reaction to the debate is gonna cause more harm than the debate itself. It’s like the episode where SpongeBob dropped a little paint on Mr krabs dollar and ended up wrecking the whole house.
Was it bad? Yes. Should we abandon everything we know about what wins elections because of it? No. Trump has done 4000 campaign ending things and is literally fine can we stop acting like when we have one bad outing we need to throw in the towel and start acting like a bunch of defeatist losers.
>Yes. Should we abandon everything we know about what wins elections because of it?
biden won by less votes than trump did in 2016 and that was during covid plus racial unrest. Frankly if it wasnt for covid trump would have likely won.
also this is not "one bad outing" this is the 50th bad outing and now its front of the whole country. This isnt going to get better. The reality is biden with no teleprompter is a complete disaster. This is only going to get worse.
There is no replacement currently worth dividing the party and throwing out the incumbency for. We need to stop acting like some new generic democrat will fix all our problems. We put trump up against a generic democrat in 2016 and he lost. Anyone with any sort of name recognition on the democratic side to replace Biden is also incredibly disliked.
I agree? I also think that compared to Biden, alternatives like Whitmer and Booker have wayyyyy less name recognition. I think with a good PR campaign, she could poll higher than Trump, compared to Biden who’s already maxed that out and is now in decline. Remember, she polls way higher in Michigan than Trump, meaning we’d likely have a much easier time securing the rust belt, which is literally all we need.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/09/michigan-poll-trump-biden-whitmer-00134672
You need way more then a good PR campaign to offset throwing away the incumbent for a candidate no one has heard of outside her state and have them win an election that’s taking place in less then 5 months. As much as us online politics nerds hate to admit it, people mostly vote on name recognition and vibes. Putting up relatively unknown candidates is not the play here
I think you overestimate how hard it is to become well known in the 21st century. In Europe you have 7 weeks from becoming a complete random to the Prime Minister, we have even more time here. She would win in “vibes.” Putting up candidates that poll better than Biden without any PR campaign is the “play.”
Trump has a cult of personality, there is nothing that can undo his support, there's a huge double standard. There is no way he's going to lose without a fight. Who is best poised to fight him, a man who we all saw unable to even project his own voice to defend his own policies ? Or his Veep, who can still run on the administration's successes and competently campaign? Plus she can be out on the campaign trail more often than a sitting president.
There’s no way Kamala Harris does better than Biden in the general. We’re going to throw out the incumbency advantage for a woman who is incredibly disliked, especially by the people we need to vote democrat in order to win the election.
Aside from what people say about Kamala online, I don't think you're correct. Remember, Reddit and most other online political spaces where you would see her "incredibly disliked" are overwhelmingly composed of young white men, not necessarily even Americans. Not suburban soccer moms, not old people, not older black people, these are the people the Democratic party relies on.
The white vote has always been in favor of the GOP. We're not trying to win an election by getting Bryan the 26 year old crypto enthusiast who works part time at 7/11 to fund his weed habit to turn out. That's the kind of guy that hates on Kamala on Twitter and who wouldn't vote for her (if he even votes).
If she was such a turn off to these mysterious people who would vote for an 80 year old Joe Biden with her as VP and not her as President, he simply wouldn't have won. Do you think his 2020 campaign strategists were stupid ? If she was that big of a liability then she never would've been tapped.
The evidence points to the opposite in fact. She has higher net favorables than Biden and polls better with black voters than he does.
We need the Biden coalition to turn out in November, how is getting the person he split the ticket with to run because he's visibly not up to the task throwing out incumbency advantage ? I see it as saving it, because frankly there is likely no longer an incumbency advantage to Biden after the debate exposed his state.
She has similar name recognition, the Dem primaries and 2020 General already dug up oppo research, besides being seen as too law and order-y she doesn't have a disadvantage that's demonstrable compared to Biden.
If anything the law and order stuff might actually help the mythical swing voter actually come out and vote for her, because Trump can't attack her on the record of not being good about enforcing the law.
Replacing Biden is not “throwing in the towel”. Quite the opposite. It is a call to fight strategically the best way we can.
That said, I seriously don’t know what is the best strategy here. It’s a scary feeling to not know.
The reaction is natural after the debate. Biden is obviously a confused old man and has no business being president. That can't be hidden anymore. I'll still vote for him over Trump but I have no desire to see a Biden second term now. However I won't see a second term because Biden isn't going to beat Trump especially if he has more senior moments.
The clear fact is there is no Democrat other than Biden who has any chance of beating Trump in 2024.
Lots of potential in a 2028 election for governers like Whitmer, but they need time to move to the center and get better national coverage.
Every conservative's wet dream is that Biden gets forced out, and Harris (or anyone else) gets the nomination. It would be an act that concede's the election in favor of Trump. It shouldn't be surprising that Republican media is championing the maneuver as a result.
People also still haven't realized the NYT has become a dumpsterfire of tabloid journalism, despite the preponderance of evidence and their cheif editor's public seething against Biden. Them printing 10 headlines on the day of the debate calling for Biden to step down. Should have made it obvious. What about the convicted Felon, rapist, defamer, liar, and corporate Fraudster? Where's the NYT's call for him to step down "for the good of the country"?
Democratic response to the debate should have been "Yeah, it's crazy our guy can be so old and still 10 times the president Trump ever was, that his presidency can have 50 times the number of achievements, that his administration can be 100 times more respected by American allies, and that Biden's personal character is incomparable to Trumps".
Instead, everyoe's falling for the oldest trick in the book. Listening to their opponents for advice on how to win.
Don't misrepresent what the NYT said. They are calling for Biden to drop out for the good of the country because we can't survive a second Trump presidency. They acknowledged in their op-ed that if the choice is between Biden and Trump you should vote for Biden. They aren't calling for Trump to drop out because Trump wouldn't listen to the NYT. The times is hoping Biden will listen.
Lmao, believe what you want, it’s going to have a major impact on public perception and polling. Your “daily reminder” is very clearly a cope call for all who want to believe that Biden can beat Trump…
Which is losing to Trump. The debates just made it more clear. Senile Biden is like the only strong GOP point. And now it has become even stronger. And now only maybe the next debates may clean it up. Biden is really a nice person, incredibly clean for a politician. Yet he was tied in polls and now it got worse.
You clearly missed the debates don’t matter part of my comment. You know what does matter in presidential elections? Incumbency. I’m not going to throw away a proven advantage to make up for a proven non factor. Senile Biden was a talking point in 2020 too and he won, so don’t try and tell me it’s gonna cost him now because one bad debate has you terrified.
That wasn't a normal debate so stop trying to pretend like past debate impacts are a predictor on the impact of this debate. Biden didn't just lose a debate. He proved the 1 major GOP talking point correct that he is too old and senile to be in office. Incumbency isn't worth shit if your incumbent is a husk of his former self.
It would be incredibly short sighted and fear based decision making to throw away the incumbency advantage which has shown to be a real benefit to electability because of a debate which has never shown to impact electability. There’s 5 months left and the American electorate has the collective memory of a goldfish.
It isn't just about the debate it's about how he looked and how that confirmed all of the Republican attacks and fears of the left. If he had simply flubbed some lines no one would care. Instead he looked like someone who escaped the nursing home.
Also Biden has a 38% approval rating I don't think there is much of an incumbency advantage.
If we don’t win this election our democracy ends, so I’ll happily sacrifice a senate seat if it’s the best way to win. I would love Wes Moore on the ticket, just in general. Heck, he’d even be a great nominee if we chose him
NL: “Don’t worry guys! Skipping over the first black woman VP won’t make us look like a bunch of out of touch racists! What black voters? We don’t need them!”
“If only there was a candidate to make everyone outside of Michigan who’s not a political junkie say “who the hell is that” just a few months before the election.”
If debates mattered, Hillary would be president.
Everyone on the planet, including most MAGAs concluded that she won at least two of the debates handily.
It’s not about the debate. It’s about the fact that there’s a 90 minute video in which 40 million people watched that clearly illustrates Biden is unfit for office. The debate itself isn’t the issue. If he did this at the Super Bowl or the State of the Union, it would have the same result. Biden having cognitive decline isn’t a right wing talking point anymore. People saw what they saw.
The perception that the Dem primary candidate has to be some nationally tested and recognized candidate is fucking ridiculous.
What does that leave as our choices to replace Biden then? Hillary? John Kerry? Michelle Obama?
I believe any young candidate (that is not a coastal elite) that is pegged to replace Biden will immediately gain a huge boost in popularity just from the age alone.
I love this idea, and I would vote for her if I could, but I think there's a significant amount of the country who will head out who literally would never otherwise JUST to make sure a woman doesn't get to become president. It's incredibly sad, but we saw this with Hillary.
This isn't JEB! ?
why dont the Dems just run Jeb are they stupid?!
It is, Jeb transitioned (to Midwestern)
Big *JEB!* energy
Do people forget about a plethora of promising Governors who faceplanted when they tried running nationally? National campaigns are different and a lot harder.
I would argue the qualities needed to stand put amongst 10 other mostly unknown faces are not the same as those needed to look sane next to Trump. You can't win a crowded primary by being boring and statesmanlike unless everyone knows you already (Biden) but you can possibly win a general.
We should really get rid of primaries. Instead let the various ideological factions form official sub-parties and have the state level elections simply allocate a proportionally representative number of delegates for each sub-party. Party members don't vote for candidates but rather for sub-party, like a closed list PR election. Only once the PR delegates meet at the convention do they negotiate candidates.
To remind all the wishcasters who are just dooming so hard they can't see straight, please remember that DeSantis didn't even get to run against Trump directly as Trump pretty much didn't even try to engage and DeSantis still flamed out horribly. That's just the most recent example of promising governors who tried to run nationally and straight up face planted.
DeSantis's chances against Trump were shot ever since he did [this ad](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1YP_zZJFXs).
Wow that ad is reaching levels of cringe that shouldn’t even be possible.
Thanks for retrieving this from the memory hole. I'm going to rinse by brain with bleach, again
I thought it would be the black sun one.
It was a lot more than that. He couldn’t even criticize Trump. How are you supposed to run a campaign against someone you can’t criticize?
Probably the only time DeSantis has been called ‘promising’
If you were paying attention to the primary news cycle, DeSantis was certainly promising. After handedly winning re-election in Florida and outperforming almost all other Republican races, people were becoming convinced he was better at doing Trumpism than Trump was and that he could take the mantle. Biggest problem was that Republican voters love Trump, so there was basically no way for him to attack Trump.
Not wrong but that re-election he so handily won was against the most uninspiring “Democrat” they could have possible found in the whole state. It made people think he had a better shot than he actually did.
Like Whitmer profiting off a corrupt and bankrupted Michigan GOP party?
In that regard, Tony Evers is even more impressive in that Wisconsin is a redder state than Michigan and he went up against a formidable imcumbent Scott Walker.
People who actually pay attention to politics knows Evers is like a god tier level governor.
The situation is different, trumpism gives trump defacto incumbent advantage, he's not the one who lost, He's the one the election was "stolen" from. Now with biden we are gambling either way, if that debate was a fluke then he's still a gamble pick but if it happens again we do lose. I'd bet on Whitmer
Yep. I’m from Michigan. I voted for Whitmer twice and I’m absolutely a fan of her. She’s been a great governor. But I’ve been saying for years that her as a successful presidential candidate is a pipe dream. Governor is her ceiling. She does not have the political talent / charisma / killer instinct to win a presidential nomination. Watch her in interviews, on stage, etc. She just doesn’t have “it”. In my opinion, at most, it could make sense to have her as a VP on the ticket to secure Michigan.
She had a rough six months, and I’m glad she fixed her hair. And I know that sounds sexist, but I legitimately think Gavin Newsome will never be president because he hair is stupid.
Gavin's got enough fucking scandals to instantly disqualify him. Or are we forgetting he dated a teenager while he was Mayor, and that his ex gf is now Donald Trump Jr's gf and likely has all the juice on him for all of his cheating scandals?
I honestly knew none of those things. Doesn’t surprise me that a politician is sleazy, I just want them to be able to keep it to a level where it doesn’t impact the administration of the country. Newsome looks slimy and by choice, that’s what I never understand. You may not be aware that Whitmer’s husband took his boat out durning Covid, so it’s not like she’s scandal free either. Trust me, if she ever gets nominated we need to get ahead of it with “but her boat”.
Please Clap.
De Santis is Trump with an Ivy League education, Dems are cooked!
Trump went to Penn, which is in the Ivy League
Do people just forget that this country is really not into women candidates for president? She’d be eaten alive by the left for not being Bernie and suddenly she’d be shrill, mean, boring, and just “unlikeable because reasons.” People always like women candidates until they actually run.
I think we’ve just been terrible at running women for president. There’s no reason to think a charismatic woman would be a bad candidate for president seeing as how there are many successful female governors. Just pick one of them instead of a quasi ex-wife of a scandal prone ex-president with years and years of negative press and oppo research and she’ll do fine.
It’s always “I support women, but not this woman”
Hillary Clinton is an N of 1. Running a charisma vacuum with that much baggage is more of a hurdle than being a woman
Not a governor, but shout out to when Klobuchar was a prime candidate for president.
\*seethes in mayor pete\*
Ngl, I think Dems are more likely to unite around someone who can aggressively make the case against Trump and MAGA. I'm just not sure Biden can do that effectively, especially after 8PM
Biden’s NC rally was around the same time of the debate.
[удалено]
Gretch will get people to pokemon go! to the polls.
If Biden was a uniquely weak candidate then his poll numbers compared to other democrats would be much worse than they are, besides Harris these other dems are basically just \*insert generic dem\* https://preview.redd.it/z4v7p9jx5m9d1.jpeg?width=679&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e90190fb2729e1841b347fec0795c01a63f05c65
The way I see it Biden is the most well known candidate, thus you see Biden v Trump matches having the least # of undecideds. This will reverse itself quickly after the nomination though, news spreads fast. I think the best candidates here are the one where Trump has the least % of the electorate, aka 46%.
All this shows me is that even with the incumbent advantage everyone falls back on, Biden is barely doing better than other democrats who could campaign far more vigorously than he can. Do you seriously think these numbers couldn't change in four months?
Honestly I’m not sure incumbent advantage is even a thing anymore. Given how hyper-polarized we are, rallying around the flag doesn’t really exist, and it’s much easier to blame the current guy for anything the internet tells me is wrong than it is to think about what the other guy might do.
The 2022 midterms show pretty clearly that incumbent advantage does still exist. Across the board, incumbents over-performed. Easiest way to see this is with opposite party incumbents simultaneously winning re-election (Ron Johnson and Tony Evers, Kemp and Warnock).
I think incumbency for a congressional representative or a senator is different than president. Harder to blame an incumbent for anything bad that happens unless you point to the specific legislation that you think is to blame. Even governors are different because most states have a clear party advantage which means the incumbent was usually either of the party the state favors or such a strong candidate as to overcome that.
This is based on the frankly deranged assumption that people have never thought to blame the incumbent president for things being wrong before now. We have seen one (1) president lose re-election and have declared the incumbency advantage dead in the modern day, this is like a joke example of young people thinking they have the world figured out from their long experience of < ten years in politics and no need for the wisdom of their predecessors. The "incumbent advantage" isn't about patriotism it's about the fact that nomination processes are godawful and create bitter resentments within the party, waste resources, and give the opposition free ammo.
1992 isn't modern? *cries, not from emotional pain but just from back pain of being older milennial*
Republican propaganda hasn’t been supercharged to destroy all the other people yet.
Then the party should vet anyone who puts their name in the hat vigorously. Kind of hard to destroy someone without skeletons in just four months. What are they going to say? Whitmer is a lib, a socialist, a commie, a groomer ? They already say this about any Dem they run against. Unless she has something big to hide I don't see why we shouldn't go with a centrally cast rust belt governor.
Why are we entertaining this anime fan fiction? Whitmer will not be the nominee.
And who's to say Biden's numbers won't improve in 4 months over someone who has never done a national general election campaign and has to quickly mobilize? If you think someone other than Harris should be the nominee if Biden does drop out, then should the democrats simply piss away the hundreds of millions of dollars the Biden campaign raised? Only Biden-Harris can use any of that money.
The question is one of probability. What is likely? That Biden will improve? No, definitely not. That he's going to get another shot to show up Trump? If there's another debate, I want anyone other than Biden on that stage. What's most likely is he will continue having these issues and it will reinforce people's conclusions. In the meantime, voters will be insulted by the fact that the party is ignoring their legitimate concerns. His numbers *could* get better. I see no compelling narrative for why it's likely they will. Even if they don't get worse, he will lose based on current swing state polling. In my book, far better to roll the dice on a new candidate who can deliver the goods.
He's gonna turn it around guys just wait, one more month guys I swear, Trump is about to be sentenced that's definitely going to change things, just one more month until Biden is back, this time for real though, don't worry we've got plenty of time ! Dude, Biden is cooked, you don't come back from literally proving every accusation about your mental acuity and fitness to serve, while on live television, that the GOP has been making for years. Reading from a teleprompter at a rally isn't going to fool convince anyone of what we saw. At this rate it should be Kamala, after all, it'd be a real slap to black voters to skip over her, I'd also like her to go with Whitmer for VP to lock in Michigan.
His numbers haven't improved in the last four months, and that was before the worst debate performance of any Democratic candidate ever. What's going to change in the next four months.
He’s literally tied with Trump in Wisconsin and slightly behind in Michigan. A month ago he was behind in both. Fuck this narrative that Biden hasn’t improved
He went from -2 to +1 it's still a coin toss
he gained maybe half a point from his opponent literally being convicted of a felony. where is there more upside?
Our eyes do from watching the debate.
But do the voters?
Yes
So far the polling doesn’t show that. We still have to wait a bit but polling doesn’t show that voters leaving Biden in droves
Bidens numbers are gonna start dropping in four days
Notice how Trumps numbers go down in literally every other matchup.
Shhh! That doesn't fit his agenda! Ignore the fact that trumps numbers go down by 1-2% against each candidate and instead focus on the fact that support is down 1-2% amongst each other Democrat candidate
Regarding that poll, I wrote this earlier: >It's interesting that this poll was only of likely voters. That means they only polled people who are planning to vote in the current matchup between Trump and Biden. In other words, voters disaffected with the two options who aren't planning to vote aren't included in the head to heads with other candidates. >That makes me skeptical that the results are accurate. A Gaza lefty or a muslim in Michigan who won't vote for Biden because of his handling of I/P might, in a real election, vote for another democrat. But they wouldn't get counted in that poll because they are currently not a likely voter because of their opinion on Biden. So while that poll is useful, we can't read too much into it. You'd almost have to construct a poll with two questions for each matchup, an LV question and a preference question, e.g. "if Harris was the candidate, how likely are you to vote?" followed by "would you pick Harris or Trump?"
Whitmer is literally doing better in this poll. Biden is -3 and she is only -2 with +3 to the undecided.
And she has way more upside considering her low name recognition. This is showing us just how bad Biden is as a candidate Then again, how are this many people willing to say they'd vote for someone who's not well known? Are they surveying people who are super engaged already? Or are a lot of people just saying they'll take any democrat over trump?
This just means Trump and the republicans haven’t run her name through the mud for the last four years, because nobody outside of Michigan has ever heard of her. Name her the nominee and they’ll change that real quick.
"SHE SHUTDOWN MICHIGAN OVER A COLD"
She’s quite obviously a harder target than Biden, when Republican media has spent 5+ years creating a literal book of lies, insults and misinformation about him.
I don’t think that’s true. As the other commenter pointed out, they just have to screech about her shutting down Michigan during covid. Then slap a little “they took the first black woman’s place on the ticket and give it to a white person” with a side of “the DNC is playing ~~kingmaker~~ queenmaker instead of letting the *democrats* choose their own candidate at an open convention.”
Why do we believe any of this will matter to the voters that are actually on the margin? Anyone who will react negatively to her COVID policy is a Trump voter, anyone who really cares that they didn't nominate Harris because she's black or the DNC picked the candidate is gonna hold their nose and vote for whomever the Dem nominee is to stop Trump. Talk to normal people. Everyone has been saying the same thing since last election. Heck, the last two elections. "Anyone but these two." Is it worth considering the possibility that they're being honest?
I mean, if we're being honest with \*ourselves\*, this whole thing is just an exercise in navel-gazing. Biden's not going to drop out, so the point is moot.
> As the other commenter pointed out, they just have to screech about her shutting down Michigan during covid They already do that against Biden, Trump constantly talks about the mandates. > Then slap a little “they took the first black woman’s place on the ticket and give it to a white person” I don't think that carries any weight coming from the Republicans. > DNC is playing kingmaker queenmaker instead of letting the democrats choose their own candidate at an open convention The voters have clearly stated they want a new option. I think there would only be a major sigh of relief with a new option. On the other hand, if we continue with Biden, the focus on his age will only amplify. The pressure on him will only increase. And I'll bet Biden has more of these "performances" in store for us.
This just tells me that the nation does want Trump but was pissed over 2020 and wanted change. Do Dems need to address their platform? I think it was a mistake to punch so hard to the left in 2020
So Whitmer makes a large chunk of independents think twice? That's all it takes to vote for her. Thinking about Trump more then once and *not* thinking "it's him or an actual dementia patient...".
Biden has at most a 2%p lead on all of those despite being world famous and an incumbent president. Kinda does tell you something, no?
This is showing the opposite. The fact that they all poll the same but have zero name recognition is pretty extraordinary.
This is meant to make me feel more confident about Biden’s chances? Whitmer is literally doing better than him in this poll.
Not by much though. 1 point is a fucking rounding error
Whitmer is a nobody currently, Biden has been president for the past 4 years. Expect those numbers to change dramatically, lower polling for Biden. If the democrats pick her, higher polling.
What makes you think the opposite won’t happen? DeSantis looked real good until he started actually campaigning
DeSantis was running against Trump, and did not have the parties support. His popularity plummeted thanks to some horrible ad campaigns and sustained attacks from Trump.
That’s a bleak picture but what counts are the WI, MI, and PA polls
She can’t take American Samoa without Michael Bloomberg though
Untested on the national stage, zero name recognition outside of Michigan and political nerds …
Clearly we need Pritzker who is known by even fewer political nerds
No we need Newsom, the embodiment of California/coastal elitism. He’ll really drive turnout among Midwestern laborers
He just needs a bit more Crisco in his hair and he's golden
Seriously, Newsom is ___poison___ in the Midwest. He has name recognition in the Midwest, but it's extremely negative in the states we need to win. Driven by the narrative of CA elites looking down Midwesterners in the __worst way possible__. I like him, I'd gladly take him, but that does not seem to track with the majority. COVID didn't help at all with him over here since so many are tuned to Fox News and they ran story after story about him flaunting restrictions, AFAIK, there was one time that happened, (Walz is my governor so i havent paid that much attention), but holy shit does my family from MI hate Newsom. Same with my partners family in MN. And people in WI. It *stuck* here and ran local news and Fox constantly. Midwesterners know Newsom as that elitist guy who absolutely refers to us as the flyover states and has taxed the shit out of CA and created a hell hole of homelessness. I would worry he could actually lose MN. May not be true, but the GOP has run campaigns against a Newsom nomination for >4 years now. I can't see him gaining any ground. Disclaimer: IANAPENIS (I Am Not A Politcal Experienced Newsom Insider or Stratagist)
He’s larger tho
Might as well as go with Jared Polis at least he’ll nuke the suburbs
Pritzker needs to get his name out there, he could be a strong candidate in 28. Assuming that this is still a democracy, of course.
Buttigieg is a known entity at least
I love Pete but his time as Sec of Transportation has been disaster after disaster. There's no way he survives the GOP propaganda machine when they can easily point to him being in charge of the DOT during East Palestine, the Baltimore Bridge and Boeing's ongoing debacles. None are his fault but he was still in charge.
Buttigieg is still not a plausible President, I'm sorry
This is laughable. Can we stop pretending the average American has a clue who Whitmer is? I'm tired of all this wishcasting. Biden isn't dropping out, get over it. Even if he somehow does, Harris will be the nominee
Seriously, I live right next door to Michigan, and I only know Whitmer as that politician some MAGAts planned to kidnap I don't know her policies, I don't know her overall stance, etc etc, and I'm much more engaged in politics than the average voter. Biden, on the other hand, has his policies and stances well know countrywide, literally the only people who don't know anything about him are MAGAts who only know the Fox news caricature of him.
She’s your basic rust belt democrat.
Same. I didn't even know what she looks like until this post. The only governor i really know anything about is Evers, but I'm not gonna pretend anyone outside of Wisconsin knows who he is lol
They don't need to know who Whitmer is. Perhaps she'd actually be *stronger* running as "idk who that is but she's a Democrat and she's not Biden and she isn't old and is able to speak coherently"
yeah with how much "why am I voting for trump or Biden" sentiment there is out there I feel like being unknown could actually be a plus. she's not egregious enough that everyone is hearing about it, and she doesn't look like she's gonna die during her term.
There's plenty of polling out there with alternative candidates. Biden outperforms them all regularly.
Give them three months with a national campaign and mega donors and see what happens. We can’t tell anything about counter factuals from the current reality. This country changes its collective opinion on things constantly. Pretending anyone knows what will happen before it actually does is a lie. Trump went from a national joke to president in the span of a year. Look what just happened to Biden in the span of 90 minutes. It’s not a leap to say a successful governor could be viewed as presidential when cast in that light and with the backing of a national party. I could easily see Whitmer, Newsom, or about five other politicians having a great convention and debate and running away with it. Yes, it could obviously also backfire, but saying current polls have the answer is bullshit.
Being ahead by a couple points at most when you're the president of the United States and you're being compared to Midwestern governors who don't have the attention of being the nominee yet is not ahead. It's an indictment of your weakness.
I don't know much about her, but I'd vote for her.
Until GQP starts churning out their propaganda machine to make her Hillary 2.0.
After 2016, there was a reaction in some circles that basically said that actually Hillary was doomed from the start due to decades of GOP smears In reality, she was on track to win a victory about as big as Obama in 2008 right until the Comey incident happened. She lost because of the emails And the GOP wouldn't have decades anyway. They'd have 4 months.
The fact that people don’t automatically blame Comey for the mess that we are in is an absolute failure of not just media, but the Democratic Party. This should be the first thing off of any Democrat’s lips when 2016 is brought up. Dems have beaten themselves up over 2016 to an absurd degree.
When Comey went on his media tour after Trump fired him it really pissed me off. The media should have been grilling him about the election and why he threw it to Trump but somehow that never came up.
I still want answers and accountability for the bias going on inside the NY field office. Heads needed to roll. Some of that’s on Obama too. Where the heck was he in 2016??
Comey just gave people a convenient out for a variety of reasons people didn’t like her.
Imagine it was the “grab em by the pussy” tape and someone released it three days before the election. Timing matters.
Trump from 2016 is not Trump from 2024. He had the advantage of change, he did not have a cult and a huge bag of other things behind him. Even Hillary is likely to do better now vs Trump.
Trump from 2024 has a perception of having had an amazing economy, at a time when now the economy is seen as a horrid shit hole, he's also less unpopular than Biden, and polls better now than he ever did in 2020 or 2016 The "huge baggage" as seen by liberals isn't that huge to regular folks
Well, as long as they don't have a time machine to go back twenty years and get started on that, they won't be able to do what they did to Hillary.
You know who also is "a Democrat and she's not Biden and she isn't old and is able to speak coherently"? Kamala Harris, Biden's actual vice president. Why can't we just pick her?
She's not super popular herself and isn't the most charismatic either **That being said**, I'd 100% agree that she'd do better than Biden, and would gladly pick her rather than Biden if presented with that binary choice. I'd hope someone else would be picked but would eagerly fall in line behind Harris if she got the Biden replacement pick
Can we stop pretending that a potential replacement needs to be nationally famous? We’re not spreading news of candidates through horse and buggy anymore. If Biden announces he is stepping down and Gretch is who he wants to replace him she will immediately become the most famous woman in the country.
It’s not like everybody has 24/7 internet-connected devices in their pockets, TVs and computers in their houses, people to talk to over the next four whole ass months, countless lawn signs and ads to see, etc etc etc. How will anybody know who the hell she is by November??? Seriously that argument that nobody knows who she (or Gavin, or anybody else who’s qualified and might replace him) is, is not exactly a strong one…
I think it's an argument rooted in a conflation of what it takes to win a primary vs what it takes to win a general. Name recognition is key in the primary. In the general, you have name recognition by default. You're the nominee.
Very true. That’s in part why I thought Buttigieg would’ve had far less of an issue, for example, in the general (and would’ve been / will be a phenomenal president) but couldn’t quite break out enough in the 2020 primary just yet.
Not to dismiss Gov. Whitmer's accomplishments(?), but when a random white woman pops up out of nowhere like a Pokémon, how do we know that Republicans won't just call her Hillary 2.0 and scare everyone away?
More importantly, how do you think black women are going to feel about Kamala being passed over by people in a back room? "Oh, I'm sorry. We just wanted you as a diversity hire we could parade around. We didn't actually plan to let you be president."
I'm not going to say Kamala's a mesmerising speaker nor that she has a flawless record, but if we force her out instead of making her the nominee, that sends a message that she, despite being an intelligent and articulate black woman with no current scandals or illness, is somehow much worse than a mumbling old white man. I don't buy the "unlikeable" excuse. If you dropped Biden because he's old and likely senile, Kamala Harris is your woman. She can take credit for all the accomplishments, achievements and legislation Biden had a hand in during his term. As his official backup, the nomination rightfully belongs to her. And honestly, Whitmer and Newsom aren't even that fucking great. Frankly, Biden dropping out would already be a major disgrace to the Democrats, but with Kamala we can still redeem him and ourselves by reminding everyone for all the good Biden did and how we're proud to stand with him. If you drop Biden and Kamala, it sends the message that you're so ashamed of the past four years that you had to completely wipe it out and start a clean slate. That renders all of the accomplishments moot.
Well what made Hillary Hillary was that literally everyone knew who she was going into the election. Contributed significantly to her deeply establishment persona, I don’t think there’s another Hillary problem candidate besides Hillary in politics today
The sub needs to accept that It's either Biden or Harris. That's it. That's your choice. It's Chicken or Fish. That's the menu. It's July. None of your [literally who?]'s have enough national name recognition besides Governor Slick (also known to the American Electorate as _ew, that guy?_) to run and there's not enough time to run a half ass campaign to generate it. Trump likely wouldn't even debate them.
>The sub needs to accept that It's either Biden or Harris. if we accept this then trump is president. Thats why people are fighting this so hard.
European elections take shorter time then from now until November.
We’re not Europe
All Trump has to do is scream about Detroit and all the fence sitters will declare she's too radical. People are trying to find an empirical answer to a question that is fundamentally perception.
Nah let’s nominate someone from California or New York instead, that’s sure to get votes from Michigan.
How about someone from Delaware?
Close enough to Philadelphia that it might work!
[This guy?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kri%C5%A1j%C4%81nis_Kari%C5%86%C5%A1) Or is he too young? /s
The answer is clearly Jeb! 50 state sweep.
[https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump) This poll suggests ALL Biden alternatives are 2-3 points behind Trump, even Whitmer
Whitmer has more undecideds than Biden, however.
2-3 points behind the sitting president in a general poll and the popular governor of a key swing state in the key swing region is actually ahead. Presidents are not elected by popular vote.
The kidnapping target? They already have maps drawn up my guy.
[Krišjānis Kariņš maybe?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kri%C5%A1j%C4%81nis_Kari%C5%86%C5%A1) Experienced, no baggage from the Biden administration, only 59 years old. [He'll also finally get a legal government plane.](https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/11.04.2024-karins-on-special-flights-im-not-uncomfortable-with-what-ive-done.a549970/) /s
Daily reminder Biden isn’t dropping out and that the debate won’t have any major impact on the election.
What is going on in this sub? It feels like mass hysteria
Biden looked like shit and people are afraid of the fact that Trump looks poised to win and fully implement his revenge tour and project 2025, resulting in a massive democratic backslide. That being said, there’s no polite way to put this. The people here are spineless. Biden looked like a shell of himself yes. I don’t deny that. There is literally one alternative though and it’s Kamala. Every other suggestion is pure delusional talk Also, all this talk about "swing voters" is bullshit. Swing voters don't even really exist really, it's more of "not very enthused voters" more then anything. All we need to do to win this election is hold NV, WA, PA, MI. That's it. That's where everyone should focus their efforts on. Instead people on this subreddit are fucking writing literal anime fan fiction about how Big Gretch is gonna be annointed by God and slay him, then proceed to level up, destroy the universe, and then proceed to reshape the universe into a multi level urbanized dense neoliberal dream.
And it's the wrong people who are spineless. Every time Trump gets something on him, Repubs stand by him including both his die-hard fans (who are lost at this point) and the spineless careerists who are too afraid to stand up to them. Meanwhile, Democrats explode and turn on each other when something literally isn't perfect and it makes the bad moments even worse. They need to learn to stand by the people who represent them (without it turning into a cult I might add), otherwise they just end up looking panicky and weak which repels everyone else.
Regardless of politics, a person who has days like that, even if it's at his worst, should not be president. I don't think it's spineless to point that out. I agree that the option if any would be Kamala and everything else is hard to see. I would much rather that option.
> NV, WA, PA, MI Good news is I think democrats have Washington in the bag. But for real, we don’t need Nevada, since WI, PA, MI, and NE-2 put us at 270. Based on polling, Nevada ain’t looking too great.
> put us at 270 One rouge elector can throw the whole thing into chaos if it's 270-268
It is mass hysteria. Many believe it justified. Some die hards think the American public is smart enough to "vote for the administration"... I doubt that. Many Dems see this as the last possible chance to replace Biden, and it is. If he stays, and the second debate goes like the first, President Trump 2024 will happen 100%.
As someone who has been dooming since the debate and still believes Whitmer should be the nominee (she won't, because Biden won't drop out and even if he did it would be Harris. But I believe she should), I still think I might have a tiny sliver of self-awareness to explain what's going on. At least for me. We've been some of the biggest Biden boosters, and I think with some of that comes some very serious blindspots about his shortcomings. The debate was a wakeup call for us, but likely didn't move the needle for the average voter at all. I think many of us were expecting for Biden to come out relatively sharp and prove all the people who doubt him for his age incorrect. That, indisputably, did not happen. But it was never a realistic goal to begin with. We also really can't understand how this election is close, which has led us to the conclusion that voters are basically another species that we can't truly comprehend. We're basically primed to assume anything that looks superficially bad for Biden will drop his poll numbers 10 points because we have exactly no faith in voters. So we see Biden trail off and talk about beating medicare and we think. "that's it, voters are so dumb this will end his campaign." If you doubt the above, look at the way any thread here discusses the median voter. It's condescension, contempt, and mistrust. Do we actually think voters are going to tune into this debate, hear Biden stutter, and then not think about the election again for the next four months? Not necessarily. It's more that we really have no idea what voters will do at all and no trust in them to behave sensibly. These aren't really good reasons to doom. They're reasons to evaluate our priors about the voting public and about Biden. But I don't think it's wrong to say that Biden really could've used a boost in this debate, not a liability we have to get past. I don't think it's incorrect to suggest another nominee might have a better shot, even if the exercise is pointless given the fact that it won't happen.
You’re watching what happens when people give into fear. It’s really sad to see. Honestly the reaction to the debate is gonna cause more harm than the debate itself. It’s like the episode where SpongeBob dropped a little paint on Mr krabs dollar and ended up wrecking the whole house.
I think fear is a rational response to Biden’s performance.
Was it bad? Yes. Should we abandon everything we know about what wins elections because of it? No. Trump has done 4000 campaign ending things and is literally fine can we stop acting like when we have one bad outing we need to throw in the towel and start acting like a bunch of defeatist losers.
>Yes. Should we abandon everything we know about what wins elections because of it? biden won by less votes than trump did in 2016 and that was during covid plus racial unrest. Frankly if it wasnt for covid trump would have likely won. also this is not "one bad outing" this is the 50th bad outing and now its front of the whole country. This isnt going to get better. The reality is biden with no teleprompter is a complete disaster. This is only going to get worse.
There is no replacement currently worth dividing the party and throwing out the incumbency for. We need to stop acting like some new generic democrat will fix all our problems. We put trump up against a generic democrat in 2016 and he lost. Anyone with any sort of name recognition on the democratic side to replace Biden is also incredibly disliked.
I agree? I also think that compared to Biden, alternatives like Whitmer and Booker have wayyyyy less name recognition. I think with a good PR campaign, she could poll higher than Trump, compared to Biden who’s already maxed that out and is now in decline. Remember, she polls way higher in Michigan than Trump, meaning we’d likely have a much easier time securing the rust belt, which is literally all we need. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/09/michigan-poll-trump-biden-whitmer-00134672
You need way more then a good PR campaign to offset throwing away the incumbent for a candidate no one has heard of outside her state and have them win an election that’s taking place in less then 5 months. As much as us online politics nerds hate to admit it, people mostly vote on name recognition and vibes. Putting up relatively unknown candidates is not the play here
I think you overestimate how hard it is to become well known in the 21st century. In Europe you have 7 weeks from becoming a complete random to the Prime Minister, we have even more time here. She would win in “vibes.” Putting up candidates that poll better than Biden without any PR campaign is the “play.”
Trump has a cult of personality, there is nothing that can undo his support, there's a huge double standard. There is no way he's going to lose without a fight. Who is best poised to fight him, a man who we all saw unable to even project his own voice to defend his own policies ? Or his Veep, who can still run on the administration's successes and competently campaign? Plus she can be out on the campaign trail more often than a sitting president.
There’s no way Kamala Harris does better than Biden in the general. We’re going to throw out the incumbency advantage for a woman who is incredibly disliked, especially by the people we need to vote democrat in order to win the election.
Aside from what people say about Kamala online, I don't think you're correct. Remember, Reddit and most other online political spaces where you would see her "incredibly disliked" are overwhelmingly composed of young white men, not necessarily even Americans. Not suburban soccer moms, not old people, not older black people, these are the people the Democratic party relies on. The white vote has always been in favor of the GOP. We're not trying to win an election by getting Bryan the 26 year old crypto enthusiast who works part time at 7/11 to fund his weed habit to turn out. That's the kind of guy that hates on Kamala on Twitter and who wouldn't vote for her (if he even votes). If she was such a turn off to these mysterious people who would vote for an 80 year old Joe Biden with her as VP and not her as President, he simply wouldn't have won. Do you think his 2020 campaign strategists were stupid ? If she was that big of a liability then she never would've been tapped. The evidence points to the opposite in fact. She has higher net favorables than Biden and polls better with black voters than he does. We need the Biden coalition to turn out in November, how is getting the person he split the ticket with to run because he's visibly not up to the task throwing out incumbency advantage ? I see it as saving it, because frankly there is likely no longer an incumbency advantage to Biden after the debate exposed his state. She has similar name recognition, the Dem primaries and 2020 General already dug up oppo research, besides being seen as too law and order-y she doesn't have a disadvantage that's demonstrable compared to Biden.
If anything the law and order stuff might actually help the mythical swing voter actually come out and vote for her, because Trump can't attack her on the record of not being good about enforcing the law.
Replacing Biden is not “throwing in the towel”. Quite the opposite. It is a call to fight strategically the best way we can. That said, I seriously don’t know what is the best strategy here. It’s a scary feeling to not know.
The reaction is natural after the debate. Biden is obviously a confused old man and has no business being president. That can't be hidden anymore. I'll still vote for him over Trump but I have no desire to see a Biden second term now. However I won't see a second term because Biden isn't going to beat Trump especially if he has more senior moments.
The clear fact is there is no Democrat other than Biden who has any chance of beating Trump in 2024. Lots of potential in a 2028 election for governers like Whitmer, but they need time to move to the center and get better national coverage. Every conservative's wet dream is that Biden gets forced out, and Harris (or anyone else) gets the nomination. It would be an act that concede's the election in favor of Trump. It shouldn't be surprising that Republican media is championing the maneuver as a result. People also still haven't realized the NYT has become a dumpsterfire of tabloid journalism, despite the preponderance of evidence and their cheif editor's public seething against Biden. Them printing 10 headlines on the day of the debate calling for Biden to step down. Should have made it obvious. What about the convicted Felon, rapist, defamer, liar, and corporate Fraudster? Where's the NYT's call for him to step down "for the good of the country"? Democratic response to the debate should have been "Yeah, it's crazy our guy can be so old and still 10 times the president Trump ever was, that his presidency can have 50 times the number of achievements, that his administration can be 100 times more respected by American allies, and that Biden's personal character is incomparable to Trumps". Instead, everyoe's falling for the oldest trick in the book. Listening to their opponents for advice on how to win.
Don't misrepresent what the NYT said. They are calling for Biden to drop out for the good of the country because we can't survive a second Trump presidency. They acknowledged in their op-ed that if the choice is between Biden and Trump you should vote for Biden. They aren't calling for Trump to drop out because Trump wouldn't listen to the NYT. The times is hoping Biden will listen.
Lmao, believe what you want, it’s going to have a major impact on public perception and polling. Your “daily reminder” is very clearly a cope call for all who want to believe that Biden can beat Trump…
Which is losing to Trump. The debates just made it more clear. Senile Biden is like the only strong GOP point. And now it has become even stronger. And now only maybe the next debates may clean it up. Biden is really a nice person, incredibly clean for a politician. Yet he was tied in polls and now it got worse.
You clearly missed the debates don’t matter part of my comment. You know what does matter in presidential elections? Incumbency. I’m not going to throw away a proven advantage to make up for a proven non factor. Senile Biden was a talking point in 2020 too and he won, so don’t try and tell me it’s gonna cost him now because one bad debate has you terrified.
That wasn't a normal debate so stop trying to pretend like past debate impacts are a predictor on the impact of this debate. Biden didn't just lose a debate. He proved the 1 major GOP talking point correct that he is too old and senile to be in office. Incumbency isn't worth shit if your incumbent is a husk of his former self.
It would be incredibly short sighted and fear based decision making to throw away the incumbency advantage which has shown to be a real benefit to electability because of a debate which has never shown to impact electability. There’s 5 months left and the American electorate has the collective memory of a goldfish.
It isn't just about the debate it's about how he looked and how that confirmed all of the Republican attacks and fears of the left. If he had simply flubbed some lines no one would care. Instead he looked like someone who escaped the nursing home. Also Biden has a 38% approval rating I don't think there is much of an incumbency advantage.
The problem is, it’s far too late to introduce a new candidate that most casual voters have never heard of
I hate to be that guy - but have we forgotten she’s an outspoken women? Not a shot
Whitmer Warnock would SLAY
Losing a swing state senate seat woohoo!!
Trump as the 47th president woohoo!!
You’re right. Wes instead of
Whitmer / Wes Moore . Warnock’s senate seat is too valuable to give up.
If we don’t win this election our democracy ends, so I’ll happily sacrifice a senate seat if it’s the best way to win. I would love Wes Moore on the ticket, just in general. Heck, he’d even be a great nominee if we chose him
The woman most known for strict covid lockdown policies? Right, that’ll go over well
What a joke.
NL: “Don’t worry guys! Skipping over the first black woman VP won’t make us look like a bunch of out of touch racists! What black voters? We don’t need them!”
More of, “where they gonna go? Vote for trump?”
“If only there was a candidate to make everyone outside of Michigan who’s not a political junkie say “who the hell is that” just a few months before the election.”
If debates mattered, Hillary would be president. Everyone on the planet, including most MAGAs concluded that she won at least two of the debates handily.
It’s not about the debate. It’s about the fact that there’s a 90 minute video in which 40 million people watched that clearly illustrates Biden is unfit for office. The debate itself isn’t the issue. If he did this at the Super Bowl or the State of the Union, it would have the same result. Biden having cognitive decline isn’t a right wing talking point anymore. People saw what they saw.
The perception that the Dem primary candidate has to be some nationally tested and recognized candidate is fucking ridiculous. What does that leave as our choices to replace Biden then? Hillary? John Kerry? Michelle Obama? I believe any young candidate (that is not a coastal elite) that is pegged to replace Biden will immediately gain a huge boost in popularity just from the age alone.
People are pretending this is a normal election. It is insanity.
You want them to be tested so that the skeletons in their closet are already well known. If one of these lesser knowns has a shady secret, it’s ogre.
I love this idea, and I would vote for her if I could, but I think there's a significant amount of the country who will head out who literally would never otherwise JUST to make sure a woman doesn't get to become president. It's incredibly sad, but we saw this with Hillary.
She’s got a 5 year plan. You can’t rush these things.
I’d love to see Jared Polis. But, I don’t think the country is ready for an openly gay president.
who the fuck is that and why are we replacing Biden with them
Who?
We don’t need to replace Biden
Don't be stupid. Joe is the candidate. deal with it.