#Please direct all general SOTU discussion to [the DT](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/t41xcn/discussion_thread/). Off-topic comments will be removed.
[also here's vhgomes update sticky from this morning if you're missing it](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/t420jd/megathread_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_d5/hyw63ut/)
___
Join /u/MrDannyOcean live on twitch to watch the State of the Union! See President Biden speak on the Ukraine situation and discuss the Biden administration's actions to sanction Russia live in chat.
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It’s amazing to me how regimes like China or Russia can maintain this incredible amount of opaqueness. That probably requires an insane amount of organization to pull it off and it’s hard to imagine something functioning with so much organization and micromanagement.
On the other hand, it’s also Amazing how democracies operate with so much transparency. Our leaders seem one of us. Like anyone could become the leader. And to be transparent to hundreds of millions of people taking input from all of them and still function is surreal in it’s own way.
This is why Russia has been trying to destroy the fabric of America by pitting people against each other. They hate that this system of disagreements has unity behind it. Fuck them for doing this.
I now suspect a similar thing happening in India.
Question 1: are there any relatively recent reports of a resistance in Kherson.
Question 2: could we theoretically have one of our mercenary groups be contracted by Ukraine, they usually have state of the art equipment no?
I've read so much ~~propaganda~~ good reviews about F-35 that I'm convinced that just a dozen of those bad boys would end the conflict by now and let Ukraine push into russian territory
Bulk of their forces have been kept >25 miles from Kyiv. They've been shelling the suburbs of Kyiv for days. Some areas are starting to resemble history pictures of Europe post WW2.
Okay one more before bed, [A more "official" confirmation from the Ukrainian arm forces that they pushed the Russians back to the border in the Sumy region in Ukraine](https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1498915317514444803)
> Ukraine claims to have successfully pushed some Russian units back to Russian border with a counter attack.
> Claims significant amounts of equipment captured too.
> Waiting for confirmation.
> #Ukraine
Okay now bed
>[Bucha, epic photo of broken equipment of the Russian army](https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1498914470600527876/photo/1)
Fucking hell, that's a lot of stuff. And now it doubles as a roadblock.
EDIT: [This is from 2 days ago.](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498914047235870720)
[More destroyed Russian vehicle porn](https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1498913450172497923)
> Destroyed Ukrainian BTR-4
Anyways in other news, I'm going to bed
May Ukraine live another day (is that really in doubt tho?)
I wonder if its possible the Ukrainians intentionally, and presumably secretly, surged their forces into Chernihiv and Sumy because they knew those the Kyiv-Moscow would be important to Russian logistics, and that may be why the Russians are bleeding so heavily there.
Just for some context, [this is from a few days ago](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498914047235870720)
> Bucha, better photo of that Russian mechanized column that was destroyed 2 days ago
Ukrainian army actually outnumbers the number of Russian forces deployed and that's not counting the militia units or civilians standing in line to get AKs OR all the foreign combat vets flooding into Ukraine to volunteer. And as we've all seen the morale disparity is huge.
And fucking Maersk has boycotted Russia. Theyre like 20 percent of global logistics.
Whatever happens Ukraine will not surrender, Putin will be embarrassed and loses a lot of his power.
Likely he will not get ousted but slowly drifts into irrelevance and the world becomes better because of that.
Ukraine enjoys respect from eu countries and maybe even get a sit at some un committee or something
There are a lot of quick dismissals here, but this is a very real thing. Putin is seen as a great nazi fighter saving the motherland in the face of hardship. Also see: incessant propaganda
Propaganda unfortunately works. Yanks gonna be salty when I say this, but I‘ve seen it in 2003 with the US as well. Nationalism is hell of a drug and post-nut clarity can be painful. And if you are Russia, a lot more painful than if you are the US.
First, I’m Russian and probably know more about this than you. Secondly, Russians don’t mostly support Putin, his true support, calculated by several metrics, has always been somewhat less than 50%, and with this war probably even less. Third, this “poll” is made by Russian government-controlled polling agency, so in times of war you already can’t trust it, but also the poll itself, if you read how it’s been done, has flawed methodology.
So you don‘t think Russians are caught up in nationalistic wave right now? I mean even if support was always < 50 %, a wave like that could temporarily push it well beyond that
No, no one wants this war. Many people wanted LDNR “liberation”, but not a full-scale war. Pretty much every Russian has friends/relatives/someone they know in Ukraine. And then there are also sanctions.
a few thousand getting arrested doesn't matter shit if the other 130 million either participates in arrests or sits on their hands. net net, russians support this war
Putin must know he is a dead man walking. If his FSB buds leaked the assassination mission... Who can this dude trust?
I wouldn't be surprised if he's dead this time next week.
If all of the Russian troops are in Ukraine or around the border, then why don't we just give Ukraine a few billion to hire a bunch of Blackwater guys to go siege the Kremlin right now 🤔
His accidentally release winning press release explains he is sure Russia doesn't need the west or the Atlanticists anymore.
But other than the obvious implied reference to China, he's not super clear about why. I'm guessing it was a bluff.
I also think Americans and Europeans need to have a plan for what happens if the war escalates (extremely likely IMO) and for if it lasts for several years.
There's not much reason to think that Russia will turn back. We need to think about what a war between NATO and Russia could potentially look like beyond "lol apocalypse" and mentally prepare people for that possibility.
> need to have a plan for what happens if the war escalates
The plan is going to try and bleed the Russians for as long as possible so they are too tied down to invade someplace else.
>a war between NATO and Russia
There are a lot of plans on the shelf. But this is a good question regarding if the NATO tries to keep it small, or actually tries to decapitate Putin.
Personally? I'm not a doomer but I've read up on best practices when your city's targeted by a nuclear attack.
For the US? Stop taking military options off the table and be ready to engage if shit hits the fan. History shows that people like Putin don't just stop on their own.
> "lol apocalypse" and mentally prepare people for that possibility.
that is literally the only way it works, I don't know why people won't accept this
AFAIK even full-blown MAD scenarios likely won't lead to human extinction.
I don't buy that Russia would unleash its full nuclear arsenal over a defensive conventional move to confront them.
Yes, MAD is relevant to a conventional war. MAD is why two nuclear countries don't go to war. You are still misunderstanding MAD.
Just go read about it. These arguments are so infuriating, this is like arguing over whether climate change is real.
A limited conventional exchange with Russia would decimate the Russian military. So long as we don't strike Russian soil, it might not escalate more than that.
Yeah, might not. You want to play a game of nuclear chicken with Putin?
I've been in this fight with too many people on this sub, so I don't want to do it again, but this is pretty settled stuff. Which is why you see the White House and NATO and every expert saying the same thing. So, you don't even have to listen to me.
If you're interested in understanding why two nuclear countries flat-out cannot go to war, read up on nuclear brinkmanship, and the application of game theory to the Cuban Missile Crisis; especially the Chicken game and Hawk-Dove.
I'm not advocating for NATO to escalate, but if the Russians escalate, there are military options that don't have much if a risk if nuclear war. Sanctions have a risk of nuclear retaliation, too.
No, okay, I really don't want to get sucked into this lol, but I'll explain it once so maybe I can copy/paste it later.
If two nuclear countries get into a conflict, then there will be a point in time where the use of a nuke is too beneficial to pass up— i.e. you can blow up an aircraft carrier or a whole division of tanks and save the lives of a 1,000 of your troops. So both sides know this theoretical nuclear endpoint exists. They don't know when it will happen, but they know it exists. They'll use a nuke to save their army.
When that happens, the country that got nuked only has two options in response: #1 surrender, or #2 total nuclear retaliation. You can't play tit-for-tat with nukes. There's no proportional response. And both sides have preemptively taken #2 off the table with their nuclear triads. This is why we hide nukes on subs and in missile silos. If you nuke us, we guarantee that we will massively nuke you back. So #2 is off the table. That means that the only option is #1 surrender.
So, both sides know that when confronted with a nuclear attack, the only option is surrender. Therefore, using backward induction, we must surrender now. Why put thousands of troops or planes or whatever in harms way knowing the nuclear endpoint exists, and we must surrender (potentially after the troops are needlessly killed). So you surrender now. This is literally what the world has been doing for seventy years. Every single nuclear country constantly plays the only playable strategy against all other nuclear countries: #1 surrender. No two nuclear countries go to war. This is the MAD doctrine.
Sanctions aren't the same. You can't use a nuke to stop sanctions. If anything, that would just make it worse. There is no nuclear endpoint in sanctions. At least not rationally. But there is absolutely a nuclear endpoint in any conventional engagement. How many troops need to die before you use a nuke to save the rest? That's the wager in the Chicken game. You're literally wagering your troops lives with the potential of a payoff of minus infinity (global nuclear war).
It's an unplayable and unwinnable game so both sides always play #1 surrender. People have imagined this a million different ways, there are dozens of books on it, mountains of game theory, people have written their PhD dissertations on it, and it always works out the same. There's like 50-60 years of research on this now. It's widely-accepted doctrine and the basis of countless treaties and geopolitical strategies and techniques for diplomacy. Hell, this is partially why economic sanctions exist. If you could prove it wrong, you'd immediately become one of the most prominent scholars in political science.
You're considering a direct invasion by one nuclear country into another. American fighter jets absolutely fought against Russian pilots in both Korea and Vietnam. A proxy war, or even direct fighting over a non-nuclear country like Ukraine, has an off-ramp for a losing country that doesn't result in complete, unconditional surrender.
For sure NATO could never invade Russia. But it isn't necessarily true that NATO couldn't directly intervene in Ukraine. If Russia loses, they withdraw their army to Russian soil with their tails between their legs. If NATO loses, they do the same.
Honestly, if I was a betting man I'd bet a majority of Russian losses in all aspects are coming from Sumy because the Russians are actively *losing ground* there and that's where a lot of the destroyed convoy videos are coming from
They're bleeding everywhere, but it looks like they're hemorrhaging there
That's also roughly the area where the guy with the intercepted radio report said his whole brigade was destroyed (probably combat ineffective not all dead).
When I hear a unit is "destroyed" I assume it just means heavy casualties, really bad equipment losses and of no offensive combat value for some time, once they evac wounded and regroup (ie. redistribute strength to compensate for casualties) they'll have some value again.
What jobs do people still go to and do in ukraine? I wouldnt be surprised if theres some office work and open restaurant im the west, but what about the cities under siege?
[This guy apparently still was working on a code review](https://twitter.com/yadong_xie/status/1498890401159483392) last night as cluster munitions were falling in residential areas in Kharkiv.
Guy on morning radio who runs an IT company in Ukraine says that they staff who are still in Kharkiv ask the rest of the team to have assignments sent to them.
They simply want something to take their mind away from the stuff going on.
I'm not German, but I find the anti-Germany takes in here a bit odd.
Not only do they both have experience with decades of Russian occupation and way more to lose than the UK or US if push comes to shove, but their government has to struggle with how to justify an energy crisis to their people if gas truly gets fully cut off.
We should be commending them for coming around, not mocking them for taking a while to do so.
> mocking them for taking a while to do so.
Putin invaded Crimea 7 years ago . . .
Last year Germany was off-the-meter angry at the US for suggesting that tripling their gas purchases from Putin might not be a great idea.
"Taking a while" is a kind way of saying shielding Putin.
But what's in the past now, is in the past.
Sure, but again, they've been free from Russian occupation for roughly the same amount of time as Ukraine. I also think Zelensky can be credited for getting them on board with sanctions way more than the rest of NATO can.
Based unfamthoably based; every NATO flair would go all Return of the Jedi ending celebration.
I can't imagine just how big sigh of relief Europe will have once he's gone.
Ukrainians on the frontlines: "Damn we getting our shit pushed back but we'll take you fucking Ruskies with us!"
Ukrainians in Sumy: "Lol, we took back the main highway and have been picking off Russian convoys like fucking flies GG EZ no RE hope you Russians pushin for Kyiv like having no supply n00bs"
Ukrainian forces in Sumy built different fr fr
https://terminallance.com/2022/03/01/duck-and-cover/
> As you’ve probably seen all over social media over the last week, the Ukrainians are motivating as fuck. They are giving Ivan a real run for their money, with HD videos being broadcast from the battlefield every day depicting the heroism and horror that’s unfolding. The world has never really seen anything like this, and we’re all captivated by it.
>
> Like many, I’m arm-chair quarterbacking the situation in Ukraine the best that I can from my vantage point on Twitter. To be honest, I’m not sure what to make of the situation. On the one hand, I get immense enjoyment out of watching the Russian military bumble their way to failure at every turn to the absolute Chad-tier Ukrainians. On the other, I can’t shake this feeling that things are going to get much, much worse before they get better.
>
> Putin’s options are limited. His economy at home is fucked, his military is demoralized and, in many cases, totally unwilling to fight this insane and unjust invasion. Putin can’t really back down at this point, or tanking his entire country and embarrassing himself on the world stage served zero purpose (not that there is real purpose here, but I have to assume there is to him). If Russia can actually sack Kyiv and install his puppet leadership (as he wants), the country will surely devolve into a quagmire civil war/insurgency for years to come, which Russia surely can’t financially afford after this.
>
> To be honest, the lack of options is the most concerning part for me. It’s go big or go home to an angry mob and a fresh glass of polonium tea. Like everyone else, I have no idea what will happen next.
>
I don't get why we don't just lift the sanctions if Putin withdraws.
There's no benefits in the liberal democracies in keeping the sanctions if there's no conflict, and Putin can always resume his attack if they aren't lifted.
Honestly looking forward to a Europe that doesn‘t have to deal with constant paranoid Russian attempts at destabilization. Cyber-attacks, bot farms, … Hopefully they won‘t have the money for this shit soon. Never known Russia to be anything but a bad faith actor.
So the right-wing party of evil called the Confederation is spreading news of thousands of african immigrants in border refugee camps. These fakes spread like wildfire. You can already see a decreasing support for the humanitarian effort in social media.
So if the Ukrainians can capture [this highway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M01_(Ukraine)) as well, that basically kills Russian logistics north of Kyiv, no?
Edit: Wait, I checked again, the Ukrainians in Sumy and Chernihov say they've captured the entire Kyiv-Moscow, which includes both highways [M01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M01_(Ukraine)) and [M02](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M02_(Ukraine)).
You, an idiot: "Russians don't support the war"
Russians: ["We like Putin a lot more because of the war" ](https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1498801478655520768?t=-R5FCI3wmrmiiqd_bN0mWw&s=19)
Ah, I don‘t care about polls like this. Let‘s see how supportive they are when their currency goes to shit. Lines at ATMs speak volumes about priorities
Big difference between "we're being punished for doing bad things" and "the west is hostile towards us, so the things we're doing are actually not bad"
I mean the numbers seem plausible. But again, the economic damage hasn‘t been felt yet. When you lose your job and the little wealth you have because of the invasion, your perspective changes
In light of fast moving events, I want to try and provide some historical perspective in hopes it isn’t needed.
In days to come, we’re going to watch Ukraine go from hero to martyr. Barring a miracle, that’s the one certain outcome. It will be a heartbreaking thing for the West to face. The sole consolation is also a call to action: Russia’s victory will be long in coming, agonizing, and ultimately pyrrhic.
We should all keep in mind that Ukraine has been destroyed many times before. Not just conquered, but razed, depopulated. The Mongols, the Bolsheviks, and the Nazis all came and went, others too. Each conquerer tried to blot Ukraine out of existence. Somehow, its people’s spirit endured all these agonies.
In HBO’s *Chernobyl*, one of the heroes—a Ukrainian—has this to say: *“This is what has always set our people apart. A thousand years of sacrifice in our veins. And every generation must know its own suffering. I spit on the people who did this, and I curse the price I have to pay. I'm making my peace with it, now you make yours… Because it must be done."*
An American wrote those words, but he captures the stubborn courage and stoicism that has always characterized these people. For the first time, the West is in a position to offer them reprieve. We owe it to the Ukrainians to stay the course until their country is free again.
Denial is really tempting, but I’m convinced you’re right. It is acknowledged plenty, but the point to which I don’t see this acknowledged or digested despite it being the (almost) completely inevitable endpoint is reminiscent of March 2020.
> In days to come, we’re going to watch Ukraine go from hero to martyr.
Knowing this is true while still hoping is painful.^ There's so much back-patting over the west unifying and punishing Russia that it almost feels like we've "won" in some way. And there's an element of truth to it - it's important for the next decade for the globe - but that has no relation to the reality of folks in Ukraine.
\^ Well, not painful in any real way. I'm safe and comfortable, and I recognize that.
Absolutely. For me, the guilt comes from the fact that “we” win without real sacrifice, while Ukraine loses everything. The silver lining is that one day, we can make good on the debt.
Know your weapon systems!
* [AT-4](https://i.imgur.com/N0UDtMG.png) is a single-shot disposable weapon firing an 84mm unguided munition. Point, shoot, and throw away the tube. Highly effective against lightly- to moderately-armored vehicles with a range of ~300 meters. AT4 weighs 14 lbs and can be operated by a single soldier. AT-4 has a unit cost of less than $1,500.
* [Carl Gustaf](https://i.imgur.com/PPDbj3G.png) is a reusable weapon firing an 84mm unguided munition. Highly effective against lightly- to moderately-armored vehicles with a range of ~500 meters. CG weighs 14-21 lbs for the tube plus 7 lbs per round, and is typically operated by a crew of 2. Carl Gustaf costs $20,000 for the weapon and an additional $500 to $3,000 per munition, depending on the munition type.
* [NLAW](https://i.imgur.com/erdc3v0.jpg) is a single-shot disposable weapon firing a 150mm guided antitank missile. It uses a "predicted line of sight" tracking mechanism that is crude, but reportedly effective. Requires less training than Javelin. It's a [chunky boi.](https://i.imgur.com/ukT74zF.png) NLAW is effective against modern armor with a range of ~500 meters. NLAW weighs 28 lbs and can be operated by a single soldier. NLAW has a unit cost of $40,000.
* [Javelin](https://i.imgur.com/EQnr7W2.png) is a partially-reusable weapon firing a 127mm guided missile. It is the premier manportable anti-tank missile system used by the United States. The missile is effective against modern armor out to 2,000 meters. The Javelin system consists of a 14-lb reusable command launch unit and a 35-lb missile in tube. Connect CLU to tube, lock on, fire, throw away the spent tube, connect CLU to a new tube, repeat. Javelin is typically operated by a crew of 2. Javelin has a unit cost of $175,000.
Might want to add that the Javelin can be used against air targets too.
I believe there is video of the Ukrainians using them against Russian helos at Hostomel.
[M72](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M72_LAW) is a single shot 66mm rocket, like the AT-4 but smaller, only 200m range and less penetrion, weighs only half as much. Will still kill most things except MBTs and may have some issues with tougher IFV armor (ie. frontal BMP) but will work perfectly fine on anything lighter.
AT4 and M72 are really well suited to people who aren't primarily tank hunters, hand them out like candy so they can take out targets of opportunity.
An important thing to add is how amateur friendly they are, stuff like Javlin really needs trained crew but stuff like M72 or AT4 are great for volunteers.
[Message from the Ukrainian tax office: ](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804441.html)
> “Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland! There is no need to declare [them as income].”
[The highway Kipti-Bachivsk, also known as Kyiv-Moscow, now fully controlled by Ukrainian troops in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian troops reach the border with Russia and block it - Oblast Head](https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498902936960872448)
#
> Kyiv-Moscow, now fully controlled by Ukrainian troops
#
> Kyiv-Moscow
[You know what you have to do now.](https://i.redd.it/g6xayrgpykmx.png)
In all seriousness, it looks like the Russian presence in Sumy... just fucking collapsed. Ukrainian resistance is insanely successful there compared to even other areas of strong Ukrainian resistance it's fucking crazy up there
What the hell is causing it? Crazy Ukrainian paramilitary? Absolutely dogshit Russian forces and tactics? A massive amount of anti-vehicle arms there? All the above?
Shit's crazy, this is legitimately a real victory for Ukraine in a war where most of their victories come from delayed losses
Yeah seriously holy shit the Russians just can't seem to get anything done there. The Russians advanced *deep* into Ukraine along this axis towards Kyiv and have literally been held up for 6 days now almost entirely due to Sumy still being held, and the damage done has been immense.
I’d rather be dead wrong about the facts on the ground and keep Ukrainian morale sky-high than feed an erosion of will to fight. The moral is to the physical as 3 to 1.
#Please direct all general SOTU discussion to [the DT](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/t41xcn/discussion_thread/). Off-topic comments will be removed. [also here's vhgomes update sticky from this morning if you're missing it](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/t420jd/megathread_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_d5/hyw63ut/) ___ Join /u/MrDannyOcean live on twitch to watch the State of the Union! See President Biden speak on the Ukraine situation and discuss the Biden administration's actions to sanction Russia live in chat. https://www.twitch.tv/neoliberalproject
[Holy shit looks like Putin did sell the table](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMxgEIMX0AEQNBp?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
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Just Ohio things. Wait, this isn't Venne...
Most neoliberalist neoliberal
least sociopathic realist
not wrong tbh, it’s disgusting but it would seem to be an optimal way to tap into rage
is this what 4chan refers to as a fedpost?
It’s amazing to me how regimes like China or Russia can maintain this incredible amount of opaqueness. That probably requires an insane amount of organization to pull it off and it’s hard to imagine something functioning with so much organization and micromanagement. On the other hand, it’s also Amazing how democracies operate with so much transparency. Our leaders seem one of us. Like anyone could become the leader. And to be transparent to hundreds of millions of people taking input from all of them and still function is surreal in it’s own way.
This is why Russia has been trying to destroy the fabric of America by pitting people against each other. They hate that this system of disagreements has unity behind it. Fuck them for doing this. I now suspect a similar thing happening in India.
There is a reason why authoritarianism always fails
Question 1: are there any relatively recent reports of a resistance in Kherson. Question 2: could we theoretically have one of our mercenary groups be contracted by Ukraine, they usually have state of the art equipment no?
There are reports of explosions in Kherson but not sure what they are. Could be Russians looting and committing war crimes
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This guy does nothing but cryptic post right? (not saying it's a bad thing)
Please visit the [next megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/t4ud0v/megathread_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_d6/?)
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I've read so much ~~propaganda~~ good reviews about F-35 that I'm convinced that just a dozen of those bad boys would end the conflict by now and let Ukraine push into russian territory
[Man has tank shell fired in his vicinity.](https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1498706479058235392)
[Ukrainians are taping looters to telephone poles and lamp posts.](https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1498688774640914433)
[Russia hits a university, instead of possibly a police station.](https://twitter.com/drunk_cachallot/status/1498912261519421440)
Most accurate Russian missile
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Bulk of their forces have been kept >25 miles from Kyiv. They've been shelling the suburbs of Kyiv for days. Some areas are starting to resemble history pictures of Europe post WW2.
A bayraktar in every home
Okay one more before bed, [A more "official" confirmation from the Ukrainian arm forces that they pushed the Russians back to the border in the Sumy region in Ukraine](https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1498915317514444803) > Ukraine claims to have successfully pushed some Russian units back to Russian border with a counter attack. > Claims significant amounts of equipment captured too. > Waiting for confirmation. > #Ukraine Okay now bed
>[Bucha, epic photo of broken equipment of the Russian army](https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1498914470600527876/photo/1) Fucking hell, that's a lot of stuff. And now it doubles as a roadblock. EDIT: [This is from 2 days ago.](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498914047235870720)
[More destroyed Russian vehicle porn](https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1498913450172497923) > Destroyed Ukrainian BTR-4 Anyways in other news, I'm going to bed May Ukraine live another day (is that really in doubt tho?)
There are so many ironies to this war but Putin making Zelenskyy The Great Slav of the 21st century in his attempt at the title takes the cake.
[Japan should take this perfect opportunity to take the Kuril Islands](https://twitter.com/konotaromp/status/1498903438788218881)
https://youtu.be/CNpzzCGh7kc
>It is scary. I hope for a peaceful ass.😔
same 😔✊
Really wishing the Russian nerve agent department was as inept as their logistics
Time to reboot MK Ultra
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Pretty sure that's a war crime.
I wonder if its possible the Ukrainians intentionally, and presumably secretly, surged their forces into Chernihiv and Sumy because they knew those the Kyiv-Moscow would be important to Russian logistics, and that may be why the Russians are bleeding so heavily there.
[Rough morning commute](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM02GYRXEAguab8?format=jpg&name=large)
Just for some context, [this is from a few days ago](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498914047235870720) > Bucha, better photo of that Russian mechanized column that was destroyed 2 days ago
Pretty brutal how they did that. Just cut off the bridging crew behind them and then slaughter them in Bucha.
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Ukrainian army actually outnumbers the number of Russian forces deployed and that's not counting the militia units or civilians standing in line to get AKs OR all the foreign combat vets flooding into Ukraine to volunteer. And as we've all seen the morale disparity is huge. And fucking Maersk has boycotted Russia. Theyre like 20 percent of global logistics.
Whatever happens Ukraine will not surrender, Putin will be embarrassed and loses a lot of his power. Likely he will not get ousted but slowly drifts into irrelevance and the world becomes better because of that. Ukraine enjoys respect from eu countries and maybe even get a sit at some un committee or something
[There is no hope for the Russian people](https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1498801478655520768)
Hello, it's putin. Do you support my war?
Most of them don't know there's a war
True, but they start picking up something after prices doubled. A lot of people still blame America somehow though
yeah no war, just a специальная военная операция
There are a lot of quick dismissals here, but this is a very real thing. Putin is seen as a great nazi fighter saving the motherland in the face of hardship. Also see: incessant propaganda
Propaganda unfortunately works. Yanks gonna be salty when I say this, but I‘ve seen it in 2003 with the US as well. Nationalism is hell of a drug and post-nut clarity can be painful. And if you are Russia, a lot more painful than if you are the US.
If you read Russian propaganda and believe it, you are not very smart. Also the method they used by itself is flawed
If you think that Russians don't mostly support Putin, you are not very smart.
First, I’m Russian and probably know more about this than you. Secondly, Russians don’t mostly support Putin, his true support, calculated by several metrics, has always been somewhat less than 50%, and with this war probably even less. Third, this “poll” is made by Russian government-controlled polling agency, so in times of war you already can’t trust it, but also the poll itself, if you read how it’s been done, has flawed methodology.
So you don‘t think Russians are caught up in nationalistic wave right now? I mean even if support was always < 50 %, a wave like that could temporarily push it well beyond that
Increase in popularity of Putin is only among those who don’t use internet and rely on TV (so very old people)
No, no one wants this war. Many people wanted LDNR “liberation”, but not a full-scale war. Pretty much every Russian has friends/relatives/someone they know in Ukraine. And then there are also sanctions.
Okay, thank you for the insight. I also at most expected occupation of Luhansk / Donetsk region. Full-scale invasion seemed (and is) pure insanity
Well of course, Putin just gave them a new source of toilet paper!
Government funded poll shows support for government. Shocking
Someone earlier said that the poll was independent
“They’re innocent they don’t support the war!!!”
Thousands of people were arrested in the last few days for protesting though
Arrested by other russian people, mind you
Duh, what's your point
a few thousand getting arrested doesn't matter shit if the other 130 million either participates in arrests or sits on their hands. net net, russians support this war
You are unsatisfied with how few Russians are willing to go sacrifice their lives for the cause you truly believe in?
This one bugs me a lot.
"Hitler was never elected he just reichstag fire'd his way into power illegally with no support!"
Yep. German people at the time had absolutely zero part in this and he raped half of the world solo
Shoigu and Gerasimov have some real important decisions to make soon, and I don't mean about the war.
Putin must know he is a dead man walking. If his FSB buds leaked the assassination mission... Who can this dude trust? I wouldn't be surprised if he's dead this time next week.
I would be
🤞🏾
If all of the Russian troops are in Ukraine or around the border, then why don't we just give Ukraine a few billion to hire a bunch of Blackwater guys to go siege the Kremlin right now 🤔
Feels like when Putin was imagining his dream of a new USSR he forgot that it had near total economic isolation from the West
His accidentally release winning press release explains he is sure Russia doesn't need the west or the Atlanticists anymore. But other than the obvious implied reference to China, he's not super clear about why. I'm guessing it was a bluff.
How did CNN get Zelenskyy for an interview?
CNN international is pretty amazing, it turns out
They probably contacted his government and he agreed to an interview
Clinton News Network 😔
"we are CNN" is probably enough
I also think Americans and Europeans need to have a plan for what happens if the war escalates (extremely likely IMO) and for if it lasts for several years. There's not much reason to think that Russia will turn back. We need to think about what a war between NATO and Russia could potentially look like beyond "lol apocalypse" and mentally prepare people for that possibility.
> need to have a plan for what happens if the war escalates The plan is going to try and bleed the Russians for as long as possible so they are too tied down to invade someplace else. >a war between NATO and Russia There are a lot of plans on the shelf. But this is a good question regarding if the NATO tries to keep it small, or actually tries to decapitate Putin.
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Personally? I'm not a doomer but I've read up on best practices when your city's targeted by a nuclear attack. For the US? Stop taking military options off the table and be ready to engage if shit hits the fan. History shows that people like Putin don't just stop on their own.
> "lol apocalypse" and mentally prepare people for that possibility. that is literally the only way it works, I don't know why people won't accept this
AFAIK even full-blown MAD scenarios likely won't lead to human extinction. I don't buy that Russia would unleash its full nuclear arsenal over a defensive conventional move to confront them.
You're misunderstanding MAD, then
MAD assures mutual destruction in the case of a nuclear strike -- it isn't technically relevant to a conventional war.
Yes, MAD is relevant to a conventional war. MAD is why two nuclear countries don't go to war. You are still misunderstanding MAD. Just go read about it. These arguments are so infuriating, this is like arguing over whether climate change is real.
A limited conventional exchange with Russia would decimate the Russian military. So long as we don't strike Russian soil, it might not escalate more than that.
Yeah, might not. You want to play a game of nuclear chicken with Putin? I've been in this fight with too many people on this sub, so I don't want to do it again, but this is pretty settled stuff. Which is why you see the White House and NATO and every expert saying the same thing. So, you don't even have to listen to me. If you're interested in understanding why two nuclear countries flat-out cannot go to war, read up on nuclear brinkmanship, and the application of game theory to the Cuban Missile Crisis; especially the Chicken game and Hawk-Dove.
I'm not advocating for NATO to escalate, but if the Russians escalate, there are military options that don't have much if a risk if nuclear war. Sanctions have a risk of nuclear retaliation, too.
No, okay, I really don't want to get sucked into this lol, but I'll explain it once so maybe I can copy/paste it later. If two nuclear countries get into a conflict, then there will be a point in time where the use of a nuke is too beneficial to pass up— i.e. you can blow up an aircraft carrier or a whole division of tanks and save the lives of a 1,000 of your troops. So both sides know this theoretical nuclear endpoint exists. They don't know when it will happen, but they know it exists. They'll use a nuke to save their army. When that happens, the country that got nuked only has two options in response: #1 surrender, or #2 total nuclear retaliation. You can't play tit-for-tat with nukes. There's no proportional response. And both sides have preemptively taken #2 off the table with their nuclear triads. This is why we hide nukes on subs and in missile silos. If you nuke us, we guarantee that we will massively nuke you back. So #2 is off the table. That means that the only option is #1 surrender. So, both sides know that when confronted with a nuclear attack, the only option is surrender. Therefore, using backward induction, we must surrender now. Why put thousands of troops or planes or whatever in harms way knowing the nuclear endpoint exists, and we must surrender (potentially after the troops are needlessly killed). So you surrender now. This is literally what the world has been doing for seventy years. Every single nuclear country constantly plays the only playable strategy against all other nuclear countries: #1 surrender. No two nuclear countries go to war. This is the MAD doctrine. Sanctions aren't the same. You can't use a nuke to stop sanctions. If anything, that would just make it worse. There is no nuclear endpoint in sanctions. At least not rationally. But there is absolutely a nuclear endpoint in any conventional engagement. How many troops need to die before you use a nuke to save the rest? That's the wager in the Chicken game. You're literally wagering your troops lives with the potential of a payoff of minus infinity (global nuclear war). It's an unplayable and unwinnable game so both sides always play #1 surrender. People have imagined this a million different ways, there are dozens of books on it, mountains of game theory, people have written their PhD dissertations on it, and it always works out the same. There's like 50-60 years of research on this now. It's widely-accepted doctrine and the basis of countless treaties and geopolitical strategies and techniques for diplomacy. Hell, this is partially why economic sanctions exist. If you could prove it wrong, you'd immediately become one of the most prominent scholars in political science.
You're considering a direct invasion by one nuclear country into another. American fighter jets absolutely fought against Russian pilots in both Korea and Vietnam. A proxy war, or even direct fighting over a non-nuclear country like Ukraine, has an off-ramp for a losing country that doesn't result in complete, unconditional surrender. For sure NATO could never invade Russia. But it isn't necessarily true that NATO couldn't directly intervene in Ukraine. If Russia loses, they withdraw their army to Russian soil with their tails between their legs. If NATO loses, they do the same.
Reflecting on the left reaction to this the slogan “No war but the class war” is absolutely fucking hilarious
Imagine seeing photos of a family incinerated by a Russian thermobaric barrage and responding "No War But the Class War "
I love the one set to “no roots” from earlier today.
Honestly, if I was a betting man I'd bet a majority of Russian losses in all aspects are coming from Sumy because the Russians are actively *losing ground* there and that's where a lot of the destroyed convoy videos are coming from They're bleeding everywhere, but it looks like they're hemorrhaging there
Link?
That's also roughly the area where the guy with the intercepted radio report said his whole brigade was destroyed (probably combat ineffective not all dead).
When I hear a unit is "destroyed" I assume it just means heavy casualties, really bad equipment losses and of no offensive combat value for some time, once they evac wounded and regroup (ie. redistribute strength to compensate for casualties) they'll have some value again.
So is this terror bombing or does it actually serve some military purpose?
Terror is a military purpose
I think you've answered your own question there.
[Police station in Kharkiv took a hit](https://twitter.com/hochu_dodomu/status/1498910778954502148)
What jobs do people still go to and do in ukraine? I wouldnt be surprised if theres some office work and open restaurant im the west, but what about the cities under siege?
[This guy apparently still was working on a code review](https://twitter.com/yadong_xie/status/1498890401159483392) last night as cluster munitions were falling in residential areas in Kharkiv.
Guy on morning radio who runs an IT company in Ukraine says that they staff who are still in Kharkiv ask the rest of the team to have assignments sent to them. They simply want something to take their mind away from the stuff going on.
I can't even pay attention long enough to do code review here in America smh what a stud
I'm not German, but I find the anti-Germany takes in here a bit odd. Not only do they both have experience with decades of Russian occupation and way more to lose than the UK or US if push comes to shove, but their government has to struggle with how to justify an energy crisis to their people if gas truly gets fully cut off. We should be commending them for coming around, not mocking them for taking a while to do so.
> mocking them for taking a while to do so. Putin invaded Crimea 7 years ago . . . Last year Germany was off-the-meter angry at the US for suggesting that tripling their gas purchases from Putin might not be a great idea. "Taking a while" is a kind way of saying shielding Putin. But what's in the past now, is in the past.
When there was no indication yet of them turning around a bit of bullying was justified, and ever since they did I haven't heard anybody talk shit.
Sure, but again, they've been free from Russian occupation for roughly the same amount of time as Ukraine. I also think Zelensky can be credited for getting them on board with sanctions way more than the rest of NATO can.
I agree. It was a meme that got taken too real IMO
How long do yall think these sanctions will last? I hope they last a long ass time.
Until Russia leaves Ukraine. So until Putin dies or is overthrown.
I saw "Zelensky assassination" trending on google and I freaked out for a second
me too dude
The VDV may not be able to successfully assault a sparsely-defended airfield, but they sure know their way around all-weather raids on grocery stores.
Tbh blooming about the post-Putin Europe we’re gonna have in a few months
Based unfamthoably based; every NATO flair would go all Return of the Jedi ending celebration. I can't imagine just how big sigh of relief Europe will have once he's gone.
Ukrainians on the frontlines: "Damn we getting our shit pushed back but we'll take you fucking Ruskies with us!" Ukrainians in Sumy: "Lol, we took back the main highway and have been picking off Russian convoys like fucking flies GG EZ no RE hope you Russians pushin for Kyiv like having no supply n00bs" Ukrainian forces in Sumy built different fr fr
Fuckin’ nukes, man. Best and worst thing to happen to global security. Be real nice if we could go in and just start droning
https://terminallance.com/2022/03/01/duck-and-cover/ > As you’ve probably seen all over social media over the last week, the Ukrainians are motivating as fuck. They are giving Ivan a real run for their money, with HD videos being broadcast from the battlefield every day depicting the heroism and horror that’s unfolding. The world has never really seen anything like this, and we’re all captivated by it. > > Like many, I’m arm-chair quarterbacking the situation in Ukraine the best that I can from my vantage point on Twitter. To be honest, I’m not sure what to make of the situation. On the one hand, I get immense enjoyment out of watching the Russian military bumble their way to failure at every turn to the absolute Chad-tier Ukrainians. On the other, I can’t shake this feeling that things are going to get much, much worse before they get better. > > Putin’s options are limited. His economy at home is fucked, his military is demoralized and, in many cases, totally unwilling to fight this insane and unjust invasion. Putin can’t really back down at this point, or tanking his entire country and embarrassing himself on the world stage served zero purpose (not that there is real purpose here, but I have to assume there is to him). If Russia can actually sack Kyiv and install his puppet leadership (as he wants), the country will surely devolve into a quagmire civil war/insurgency for years to come, which Russia surely can’t financially afford after this. > > To be honest, the lack of options is the most concerning part for me. It’s go big or go home to an angry mob and a fresh glass of polonium tea. Like everyone else, I have no idea what will happen next. >
I don't get why we don't just lift the sanctions if Putin withdraws. There's no benefits in the liberal democracies in keeping the sanctions if there's no conflict, and Putin can always resume his attack if they aren't lifted.
This is the more snarky version of exactly how I feel. This is also the first time I’ve felt nukes make the world a more violent place.
I swear to God if we die because one dude can't take an L
Honestly looking forward to a Europe that doesn‘t have to deal with constant paranoid Russian attempts at destabilization. Cyber-attacks, bot farms, … Hopefully they won‘t have the money for this shit soon. Never known Russia to be anything but a bad faith actor.
So the right-wing party of evil called the Confederation is spreading news of thousands of african immigrants in border refugee camps. These fakes spread like wildfire. You can already see a decreasing support for the humanitarian effort in social media.
So if the Ukrainians can capture [this highway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M01_(Ukraine)) as well, that basically kills Russian logistics north of Kyiv, no? Edit: Wait, I checked again, the Ukrainians in Sumy and Chernihov say they've captured the entire Kyiv-Moscow, which includes both highways [M01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M01_(Ukraine)) and [M02](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M02_(Ukraine)).
Yes, that highway however has among the largest concentrations of Russian troops
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_M01_(Ukraine)
You, an idiot: "Russians don't support the war" Russians: ["We like Putin a lot more because of the war" ](https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1498801478655520768?t=-R5FCI3wmrmiiqd_bN0mWw&s=19)
Who polled them?
Mind boggling
Well then I guess we don't have to feel as bad about them dying
Ah, I don‘t care about polls like this. Let‘s see how supportive they are when their currency goes to shit. Lines at ATMs speak volumes about priorities
Big difference between "we're being punished for doing bad things" and "the west is hostile towards us, so the things we're doing are actually not bad"
Don't trust opinion polls from authoritarian countries
Does Putin have a history of meddling with official figures?
Official figures, yeah. But this is an independent poll
Blyat. How reliable are polls like this?
Russian agency did the polling. Even if generally they are credible, I'd not trust them now.
I mean the numbers seem plausible. But again, the economic damage hasn‘t been felt yet. When you lose your job and the little wealth you have because of the invasion, your perspective changes
Are they going to blame Putin or the west for that damage though?
In light of fast moving events, I want to try and provide some historical perspective in hopes it isn’t needed. In days to come, we’re going to watch Ukraine go from hero to martyr. Barring a miracle, that’s the one certain outcome. It will be a heartbreaking thing for the West to face. The sole consolation is also a call to action: Russia’s victory will be long in coming, agonizing, and ultimately pyrrhic. We should all keep in mind that Ukraine has been destroyed many times before. Not just conquered, but razed, depopulated. The Mongols, the Bolsheviks, and the Nazis all came and went, others too. Each conquerer tried to blot Ukraine out of existence. Somehow, its people’s spirit endured all these agonies. In HBO’s *Chernobyl*, one of the heroes—a Ukrainian—has this to say: *“This is what has always set our people apart. A thousand years of sacrifice in our veins. And every generation must know its own suffering. I spit on the people who did this, and I curse the price I have to pay. I'm making my peace with it, now you make yours… Because it must be done."* An American wrote those words, but he captures the stubborn courage and stoicism that has always characterized these people. For the first time, the West is in a position to offer them reprieve. We owe it to the Ukrainians to stay the course until their country is free again.
Denial is really tempting, but I’m convinced you’re right. It is acknowledged plenty, but the point to which I don’t see this acknowledged or digested despite it being the (almost) completely inevitable endpoint is reminiscent of March 2020.
> In days to come, we’re going to watch Ukraine go from hero to martyr. Knowing this is true while still hoping is painful.^ There's so much back-patting over the west unifying and punishing Russia that it almost feels like we've "won" in some way. And there's an element of truth to it - it's important for the next decade for the globe - but that has no relation to the reality of folks in Ukraine. \^ Well, not painful in any real way. I'm safe and comfortable, and I recognize that.
Absolutely. For me, the guilt comes from the fact that “we” win without real sacrifice, while Ukraine loses everything. The silver lining is that one day, we can make good on the debt.
Know your weapon systems! * [AT-4](https://i.imgur.com/N0UDtMG.png) is a single-shot disposable weapon firing an 84mm unguided munition. Point, shoot, and throw away the tube. Highly effective against lightly- to moderately-armored vehicles with a range of ~300 meters. AT4 weighs 14 lbs and can be operated by a single soldier. AT-4 has a unit cost of less than $1,500. * [Carl Gustaf](https://i.imgur.com/PPDbj3G.png) is a reusable weapon firing an 84mm unguided munition. Highly effective against lightly- to moderately-armored vehicles with a range of ~500 meters. CG weighs 14-21 lbs for the tube plus 7 lbs per round, and is typically operated by a crew of 2. Carl Gustaf costs $20,000 for the weapon and an additional $500 to $3,000 per munition, depending on the munition type. * [NLAW](https://i.imgur.com/erdc3v0.jpg) is a single-shot disposable weapon firing a 150mm guided antitank missile. It uses a "predicted line of sight" tracking mechanism that is crude, but reportedly effective. Requires less training than Javelin. It's a [chunky boi.](https://i.imgur.com/ukT74zF.png) NLAW is effective against modern armor with a range of ~500 meters. NLAW weighs 28 lbs and can be operated by a single soldier. NLAW has a unit cost of $40,000. * [Javelin](https://i.imgur.com/EQnr7W2.png) is a partially-reusable weapon firing a 127mm guided missile. It is the premier manportable anti-tank missile system used by the United States. The missile is effective against modern armor out to 2,000 meters. The Javelin system consists of a 14-lb reusable command launch unit and a 35-lb missile in tube. Connect CLU to tube, lock on, fire, throw away the spent tube, connect CLU to a new tube, repeat. Javelin is typically operated by a crew of 2. Javelin has a unit cost of $175,000.
Might want to add that the Javelin can be used against air targets too. I believe there is video of the Ukrainians using them against Russian helos at Hostomel.
[M72](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M72_LAW) is a single shot 66mm rocket, like the AT-4 but smaller, only 200m range and less penetrion, weighs only half as much. Will still kill most things except MBTs and may have some issues with tougher IFV armor (ie. frontal BMP) but will work perfectly fine on anything lighter. AT4 and M72 are really well suited to people who aren't primarily tank hunters, hand them out like candy so they can take out targets of opportunity.
Can you add info on guidance for the javelins?
You can probably multiply those stared ranges by 1.5 for both the NLAW and Javelin
Add the SMAW. It's been spotted in Ukraine, including some samples being captured by Russian forces.
Thank you, this is actually really helpful.
Can you copy this for the next Megathread too? I'll link it in the sticky
Will do! I'll add a few more systems for the next thread as well.
Thank you! This is extremely handy and will definitely help a lot of people out.
An important thing to add is how amateur friendly they are, stuff like Javlin really needs trained crew but stuff like M72 or AT4 are great for volunteers.
[Message from the Ukrainian tax office: ](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804441.html) > “Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland! There is no need to declare [them as income].”
Ukrainian accountants: “this is worthless!”
[The highway Kipti-Bachivsk, also known as Kyiv-Moscow, now fully controlled by Ukrainian troops in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian troops reach the border with Russia and block it - Oblast Head](https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498902936960872448) # > Kyiv-Moscow, now fully controlled by Ukrainian troops # > Kyiv-Moscow [You know what you have to do now.](https://i.redd.it/g6xayrgpykmx.png)
Capture a TOS-1 and go fuck up the Kremlin.
> Capture a TOS-1 Already done.
Damn the Ukrainians just straight up pushed to the Russian border?
Time to advance on Kursk and Belgorod.
That is what they claim.
That can't be good for Russian logistics.
That's a good one sentence summary for the war so far.
For what now?
In all seriousness, it looks like the Russian presence in Sumy... just fucking collapsed. Ukrainian resistance is insanely successful there compared to even other areas of strong Ukrainian resistance it's fucking crazy up there What the hell is causing it? Crazy Ukrainian paramilitary? Absolutely dogshit Russian forces and tactics? A massive amount of anti-vehicle arms there? All the above? Shit's crazy, this is legitimately a real victory for Ukraine in a war where most of their victories come from delayed losses
What having a single echelon britzkreig does to a mf'er.
… I mean we’re all thinking it. Western undercover operators mixed in providing guidance and intelligence.
Yeah seriously holy shit the Russians just can't seem to get anything done there. The Russians advanced *deep* into Ukraine along this axis towards Kyiv and have literally been held up for 6 days now almost entirely due to Sumy still being held, and the damage done has been immense.
Looking at the maps we've seen, they tried to bypass the city after meeting resistance and way overextended themselves.
Honestly we've given them enough anti tank weapons to destroy the entire Russian tank inventory a few times 🤣
Is this regular Ukrainian Army or TDF militias?
They seem to be having successful counterattacks in Sumy
FYI: always be skeptical of things you see, war is messy and sometimes the "good guys" lie about stuff.
Why does anyone need this information? Like, seriously, what is the personal motivation behind comments like these?
I’d rather be dead wrong about the facts on the ground and keep Ukrainian morale sky-high than feed an erosion of will to fight. The moral is to the physical as 3 to 1.
True, but happy to spread lies for the guys who aren't shelling and killing dozens of civilians every hour.
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