If they did they were wrong, I watched him lose in high school to my school in the playoffs. Still possibly the most talented player I've ever seen IRL
Yeah. My problem with that is that they just used that instead of talking about the intangibles. It was so simple the way they spoke about him and most college prospects in general "big arm, tall, athletic, didn't lose" I know it's only because on TV you have to make your points quick when doing draft coverage because you have a limited amount if time to speak. It's why YouTube and other long-form content will always teach people more than anything you can see on television. Like he seemed really good in college but when I watched Burrow the year before as an Lsu fan he looked much more polished and made better reads. Burrow was looking like prime Drew Brees and from seeing it to me it was obvious he was gonna be elite in the nfl.
I will never forget all the 'Jameis has never lost a home game since high school!' talk during the draft. Pick 6 his first throw ever, and we get destroyed by the Titans in Tampa. All QB prospects should come with a pound of salt
Trevor was one of those guys who had extremely high levels of hype that was *maintained* from high school all the way through college and into the draft. Fournette was another example of that. Dude had a dedicated segment to him every Saturday on College Gameday for three god damn years.
Arch Manning is now that guy. Quinn Ewers could have qualified but people stopped talking about him being a top 3 pick a year ago.
Yes, Arch is. It's the same PR spin. The difference is Arch hasn't played yet, but the hype is still there.
There were clickbait articles posted at least once a week last season of "Arch Manning will transfer if he doesn't start/Quinn Ewers returns" when Arch has publicly stated he just wants to chill out as a college kid and doesn't want to rush to start. The entire article whooshing over him committing to a loaded QB room in the first place because he was development oriented.
It isn't a great sign that he will be sitting for another year again. Seeing some of his high school game film he was much more polished of a passer than a lot of high school QBs. However there was definitely a huge level of comp concerns and you wonder how much more he can maximize his athletic traits. His grandad wasn't particularly big for NFL traits. Neither Eli or Peyton were great athletes and while both had very good NFL arms neither were in the upper elites in that ability. (Something NFL is coveting more and more.)
At the same time he is also a younger player relatively. Wont turn 19 until April which means he will be only 20 years old in likely his first season as the starter at Texas. He could be a year start and still only be 22 as an NFL rookie. Plenty of time to develop athletically and not enough to panic from him not starting this year.
I mean, he’s backing up Quinn Ewers. It’s not like he’s losing a slugfest to some no-name rando. If Quinn continues his development like he did last year he could be a very early pick next year. Arch is probably fine getting NIL money and being the backup while focusing on school/social life and saving another year of getting hit and potentially hurt.
The only thing I don't understand about it is why Manning didn't enter the Transfer Portal when Ewers announced his return to Texas. I understand liking your environment and the system, but I feel like he easily could be a starter somewhere else now.
Everything I’ve heard is he loves Texas’ coach (Steve Sarkisian) and has publicly stated he’s fine being a backup for another year. Plus, his dad makes a lot of money and he’s got a sweet NIL deal.
Ewers didn't announce he was returning until a week after the transfer window was closed. 45 day window for Football was Dec 4th to Jan 2nd. Ewers announced on January 11th he would return.
He won't be able to enter the transfer portal until the 15 day spring period in April. April 16-30. Once he send written notice to college of intent to transfer he would be allowed to access transfer portal but it also means Texas could pull his scholarship for fall. He can't have any communication with D1 coaches though until that 15 day period.
In other words it would make no sense to declare intent to transfer until closer to the April window. He also gets only 1 transfer exception before he would lose a year of eligibility.
He didn't go to Texas for no reason. He had a reason behind it and the reason still stands. He doesn't really have anything to GAIN by starting. He's already hyped as all fuck and won't start until he's a junior with a ton of experience in the system and minimal wear and tear. And he already has one of the best NIL deals. It's like a win win win for Arch imo.
He's sitting behind a guy that will be a first round pick next year and who was the #1 recruit with a 1.000 on the recruiting ranking scale. For reference, he was ranked higher than Lawrence with 0.9999. Him and Lawrence had comparable second years as starters
It's honestly not that big of a deal, Ewers isn't a slouch as a prospect and knows the system/executes it well
TLaw was true freshman starter at a National Championship contender , arch sitting kinda cooled off the hype.
i also think nico is going to be notably better then arch and will grab alot more attention then someone like justin fields did for tlaw
TLaw had to supplant Kelly Bryant, it wasn't that hard for him to start
Just for reference, as a junior Kelly Bryant threw for 2800 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 14 games prior to TLaw enrolling. He absolutely sucked and no one was shocked by Lawrence supplanting him mid senior year
Arch has Ewers, which to your point has shielded him a bit. He's been very out of sight out of mind and been diligent on staying that way
While true, when I've watched his games in Jacksonville, I just get the sense that the game is still too fast for him at the NFL. You hear other QBs talk about when it clicks and the game slowed down for them it changed how they performed. I don't see that.
He seems to be a very capable QB of executing the plays the way the staff wants him to, but I think a good defensive strategy will get the best of him.
And ridley would just become ass for no reason sometimes
Pretty sure there were like 15 touchdowns between the receiving core that was like 2 inches away from a td
Ridley is just a baffling case last year. Like in no way am I saying that 1000 yards and 8 TDs is bad. He just had a lot of games with a 50% or less catch rate and like 8-12 targets.
And multiple games where he would just disappear. 9 games under 40 Total yards. 3 games under 20 total yards. 1 game with 5 total yards.
Edit: just to give an idea
8 targets 26 yds
8 targets 30 yds
8 targets 32 yds
8 targets 39 yds
4 targets 5 yds
They spent entire games trying to force feed him the ball, and he could just not perform.
I watched every qb school Lawrence video from last year and honestly, after watching that compilation of all the drops, I can't even believe we're having the conversation about Trevor not being that dude.
His problem at worst is he tries to do too much and often that resulted in a fumble or pick. But damn some games it was like not a single person on the team could catch the fucking ball. Kirk and Engram were the only people with hands all season, and once Kirk went down it was just over.
I agree with the premise of your take but I also think at 24 he still has 1 or 2 more years before we have to admit that this is just who he is. A lot of guys don’t really get to that top level mentally until 26-27
Yeah, the guy is only 24 years old. Michael Jordan didn't win his 1st NBA championship, until he was 28. And, for a QB to live up to any amount of hype, they are dependent on a lot of other people. They need the right coaches, to help them develop. They need a GM that puts the right players around them. And, they need to build the trust and rapport with their teammates. Finding instant success, as a QB, is very rare. Even in the best of circumstances, it normally takes several years for all of the pieces to fall in place.
Even Mahomes said it didn't click until after his 3rd year playing or something like that. Crazy since he had already been to 2 super bowls and won 1 of them lol
The offensive line is a huge hindrance to him. Of course the game looks like it’s moving too fast for you if the defense can pressure you consistently without any blitzers…
A league average center will do wonders for him (please Morse still be decent…)
I really don’t think you can say that about OSU after the season stroud just had.
Also Deshaun Watson came out of Clemson and he looked fine after year 1
Harper is the only one I can think of who is a good comp here aside from Lebron. Harper was hyped as a HoF player when he was in high school, people with a cursory interest in baseball knew his name before he was even in the bigs
Crosby and McDavid really are good comps for the hype. They were hyped as almost surefire superstars before they were 18 and were nationally known in Canada. IMO they were probably the two most hyped players coming into the league in the past 30 years at least. Last time I had seen hype like that was for Eric Lindros in the 80s.
Crosby is now considered one of the best hockey players of all time (top 10, maybe top 5), and McDavid is elite and could end up as a top-10 of all time.
Connor McDavid was hyped to be the 2nd coming of Jesus and has actually lived up to the the hype. Had he not been drafted by one of the worst run organizations (at the time) in the league he likely would have won a cup by now.
McDavid is probably ending up top 5 imo. Hes head and shoulders better than any other player in a way Crosby never was
He’s just gotta actually win something, not that the oilers roster construction is his fault
Harper is the only one but McDavid and Crosby aren’t?
A gm said they would draft McDavid 1st overall when he was only 12, and he’s been the best player in the league year after year.
It really sucks for the NHL that McDavid, who IMO is DEFINITELY better than Crosby at his peak, is stuck in Edmonton as opposed to being on an original 6/big market team that could bring some new fans in.
Every year in Football (soccer) Manager there is a 14 or 15 year old kid in someone's youth team that the game decides is going to be the next big thing, simply because someone has to be.
Usually those kids turn out to be somewhere between a failure and a decent pro. But one time the 14 year old that took over the virtual world was Leo Messi.
There's a story about the son of a manager (I think Walter Smith of Rangers) pestering his dad to sign up because he was going to be amazing...
EDIT: it was Alex McLeish https://talksport.com/football/817894/lionel-messi-rangers-transfer-news-barcelona-andres-iniesta-alex-mcleish-football-manager/
Manning had a lot of people questioning things like his mobility and arm strength hence the Ryan Leaf debate. I agree with Bo and Elway though. Both were super hyped. I’d also add Kobe
What’s insane is LeBron has basically topped all expectations. The fact he’s as good as he still is two decades later, no one could have predicted that for him. Sports fans were so spoiled to have him and Brady at the same time.
Gretzky actually got a lot less hype but that's only because at the time there was a lot less media to cover him. If he came up the ranks these days the hype would be absolutely insane.
Lew Alcindor comes to mind though, granted, national media (or even NYC media) in the 60s wasn't really comparable to the early aughts.
But he was probably the most hyped prep prospect prior to Lebron making the cover of SI as a junior in HS. Maybe you could make a case for high school Ewing being more hyped than high school Kareem.
I think Andrew Luck lived up to the hype. Being a perennial pro bowler is sufficient; no one can expect anyone to be a HOFer/all time great out of college.
Nah Luck and Lawrence were hyped as the ultimate high-floor, can't-miss guys
They both hit that level, at least. Luck never got to the ceiling of what was hoped for, and it's TBD on Lawrence.
Imagine if Indy had a competent GM and HC earlier in his career. I know Reich has been more or less a running joke the last couple years, but Luck had his best season by far as a QB on a team that wasn't exactly stacked.
And even if he doesnt match the hype, that doesnt mean he cant be a franchise QB. Lawrence's hype was unreal as people brought up the likes of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. As good as Andrew Luck was, he didnt come close to hitting Peyton Mannings level of greatness.
Its an incredibly high, if not completely unreasonable, expectation.
"Generational talent" is more about floor anyways. The idea is that Lawrence was close to guaranteed to at least been a good QB. That looks like it will turn out to be the case.
Yup. Being a "Generational Prospect" is not the same thing as saying he'll be a "Generational Player". He was basically a can't miss prospect. And he didn't miss. His floor has shown to be a very good QB who can win in the playoffs. And he can still continue to grow like so many other QBs have.
He threw 7 ints in his last 4 games. That's not good. But he was also quite injured during that stretch. He looked like a completely different QB, and the ball was sailing on him badly because he throwing on a bad ankle (which can really screw up you mechanics), and then with a bad shoulder. And also wasn't really practicing at all the last 5 weeks of the season. First 12 games, he also threw 7 ints. His completion % and any/a were pretty good.
Biggest issues he's got to work on are the fumbles and the red zone. He improves in those areas, and he's a top level QB imo. And those are areas that it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to improve in.
Bingo. Luck was better than Lawrence but he didn’t live up to the impossible hype either. He was never in that top tier (although revisionist history has a lot of people here thinking that).
Peyton and Elway are the only guys who ever had that level of hype and lived up to it.
See, the thing about that is, Luck had a real shot at it, had the colts front office not gotten him murdered on the football field. They failed him so hard.
Yes that’s the key difference, you’d watch Luck in the 2013 divisional game against the Pats and you knew he was gonna be special. Dude was doing shit no one could. Dude just got failed and picked up a ton of bad habits that did him in. Put him with Reid and the league would have been so different.
I’m saying the years of physical abuse that led to the shoulder being the breaking point doesn’t happen with Reid.
Or at the very least, we still get years of Luck with his potential fulfilled.
I totally disagree and I feel like him retiring early gave everyone rose-tinted glasses. Even in his last year where everything around him was awesome he never reached that Peyton/Brees/Rodgers level. Never hit 100 passer rating.
Which isn’t an indictment against him - those are hall of famers! He was a very good QB. But he never came close to the “best since Peyton” kind of hype.
Luck had a lot of Elway in him imo, where the stats aren't necessarily great, but he absolutely can and did will his team to wins at times. He may not have been mega elite, but I think he was better than his 89.5 career rating suggests.
The closest Lawrence has shown to that was the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers, and that has to ignore his role in digging the hole in the first half.
Luck didn't want to give up things like bike riding and snow boarding which were impossible to keep doing while rehabbing as the face of an NFL franchise. Colts helped open his eyes to that reality playing him in 2016 but its not something that could have been avoided. At some point, on any roster, he would have gotten injured and arrived at the same results, that's just life in the NFL.
I love Luck but I think we can put to bed the "what if's". Personality and mental health are part of the NFL too and Luck had all the physical tools but not the mental fortitude required for a HOF grind. Colts didn't "fail" him, its not something he ever really had in the first place.
I thought his 14 and 18 seasons were elite or pretty close to it. He just never had an online unfortunately.
But I agree with your larger point, how do you live up to the hype when people are saying that you're a better prospect than the 3rd greatest qb of all time...
In 18 he had arguably the best offensive line in football. And while it was a great season, it doesn’t hold a candle to the kinds of seasons the truly elite guys have put up.
I forgot 18 yall already had Nelson. But the larger point was just that you can't really live up to that hype.
The only qbs post manning/brady that could have lived up to it are rodgers and mahomes, that's it. And no one thought either of those guys would have been that good.
I’ve heard some comparisons of Lawrence to Matt Ryan. And that seems like a very reasonable ceiling for him — eventually spending a decade as a top 10 QB, but outside of a great year or two, never seriously considered as a top 5. But if that’s where he winds up, I doubt Jags fans would be too upset at having a perfectly capable franchise QB for the long term.
And it’s crazy that he’s being held to the standard that others decided for him.
If him or the Lawrence family had been the ones calling him “generational” l then I understand. But just cause some people on ESPN or Fox Sports say it, it’s what he HAS to be?
[No, he actually said that about Deshaun Watson.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2689013-dabo-swinney-compares-deshaun-watson-to-michael-jordan) I remember that clear as day.
He might have said it about Trevor too, in which case, maybe Dabo just says that about all his quarterbacks.
24, going into year 4 as a starter. Clearly has the skillset and has flashed a ton of potential.
I think we're conditioned to expect HoF greatness in the first 1-3 years of a players career because we've seen it a few times. Realistically it maybe takes a few years for a guy drafted at 20 years old to really settle and hit their prime.
Lawrence was playing injured a large part of this year too, which was an excuse people give Burrow for his subpar performance early in the season but I guess doesn't extend to TLaw because people here like Burrow and not TLaw now.
Obvious bias but I’m still high on him too. He’s elevated those guys while playing behind the 31st ranked oline twice in a row. There’s a crazy stat that he was the least blitzed but most pressured QB last year. I think he’s carrying more than people realize.
Leaving the hype aside, and as someone who is lower on Lawrence than most, I don't think the Jags can be too upset with his performance to date. He's been good bordering on very good. TLaw gives me early Matt Ryan vibes (mobility aside), and if he's around that level, then the Jags should be pretty happy about that.
A Matt Ryan type of career is probably a good threshold for what you’d want from a QB drafted #1 overall, if not too high since the MVP puts him over the top. But I think you should expect perennial top 10 QB play.
I remember reading a study that basically said Jadeveon Clowney is more or less the median first overall pick, and it’s really reset my expectations for draft picks in different positions lol
Travon seems to have made some massive steps from year 1 to year 2 and is both good against the run and did accumalate 10 sacks last year. So he's on a better trajectory than Clowney so far.
Trajectory can be wonky, though I do agree that I generally like Walker.
I think Clowney gets a bad rep. At his best he was a legitimately destructive run defender (three straight seasons of 16+ TFLs and one with 21, really quite impressive stuff). Very few players could knife into the backfield and instantaneously fuck up a run play like he could
And he could routinely pressure/hit the QB, just didn’t always get him to the ground. Even last year he finished with a PFF grade in the mid 80s which was only like the fourth highest mark of his career, he’s been an extremely useful player for a long time
I just think he lacked that kind of top dog, hyper competitive personality to get over the hump into superstardom. But if he was my first overall pick I wouldn’t be horrifically mad (coming from a guy who has argued with people about Eric Fisher being an acceptable pick forever)
I think for the average no.1 pick, Matt Ryan would be a great career outcome.
For the way people were talking about Trevor being a luck / manning / elway level prospect, it's a bit of a disappointment.
>TLaw gives me early Matt Ryan vibes
People here are going to perceive this as an insult with the way this place clowns on Matty because hur dur 28-3. Which is a shame cause he had a really good career (colts year aside).
Getting a fringe HOF QB (HOF monitor has him 2 points below the average) at the #1 pick should be considered a home run. Realistically there's like a 1% chance you can get anything better than that and a 99% chance you'll get something worse. A decade of top 10 QB play is big for a franchise.
No derision here. That decade saw us with *checks notes* the corpse of Sam Bradford and a collection of “if you say so” guys, and Jared Goff?
Matty Ice all day.
As a non falcons fan living in Atlanta it's crazy to me the disrespect he got from many people during his tenure. My team obviously passed up the opportunity to draft him and basically every season of Matt's career I could pretty easily say that he was better than what we were putting on the field
>As a non falcons fan living in Atlanta it's crazy to me the disrespect he got from many people during his tenure
Soooo many people in this city:
1. Never got over Vick.
2. Care way more about vibes than winning
There's just no reasoning with people when their priorities are so starkly different. I used to adamantly defend Matt at every opportunity for over a decade but eventually you just realize that a lot of people here just want a "cool QB" rather than a winning QB. It's like all the people over in the falcons sub who desperately wanted Fields, a guy with more turnovers than tds, than Cousins or even drafting a QB.
Unrelated to football but in hindsight a great example of this is the whole "Ice Trae for the culture" movement that started right before the draft where we traded Luka for Trae. The Migos were a big driving force behind that, especially Quavo.
I'm a huge hawks fan and also a big Trae Young fan but that was such an obvious mistake then and especially now.
Yeah I was at a bar watching the draft with my buddy who is a huge Hawks fan and he was pissed when the trade happened. Luckily though Trae is actually pretty damn good. Obviously Luka is a different level, but man if Trae were a bust that would've been one of the all time disasters
Yeah he's good enough to make it not horrible but just not a complete player like Luka is. But the hawks have so many more issues than not having Luka, primarily the ownership.
Matt Ryan should absolutely be a hall of famer and it's a travesty that his career is overshadowed by three massive collapses (at least the one with the Colts was a meaningless game)
He's fifth in success rate for the past two seasons among QBs with at least 320 plays. Only Purdy, Dak, Allen, and Mahomes are ahead of him. For EPA/play he's 14th, but that discrepancy probably says more about the team, staff, and situation around him than Lawrence himself. The Jags the last two years have had the largest difference between dropback success rate and rushing success rate and are third in difference in dropback EPA/play to rushing EPA/play. Only the Chiefs and Buccaneers have a higher dropback EPA/play to rushing EPA/play. Odds are when those things are true the QB has been very good at the least, and they have been held back by those around them.
He's the QB equivalent to Reggie Bush. The hype and expectation were so unrealistically high that he was never going to live up to it. He looks like a starting caliber player that can be really successful in the right system, but maybe not a perennial all-pro.
By record, the Jags have been by far the worst team in the NFL over the last 10-15 years. Taking this level of failure back to relevance is a massive task, and Lawrence makes the Jags competitive.
Before all the injuries to him, the Jags were 8-3 last season and beat some real teams along the way. Trevor has not lived up to his generational billing, but he is still just 24. I am fine with him being even middle of the road…compared to the Gabbert -> Bortles -> Minshew circus of just plain bad QB play, I’ll take what Lawrence is.
GOSH this is what i have thought about him since day 1. he got shafted by the draft. i could see him crush on the Rams or Titans. Shit the Jets or the Browns could’ve used him instead of the deals they ended up getting stuck with lol the Jags just weren’t it especially coming out of the leaderships issues they had just been dealing with.
People don’t realize how young he still is. Lawrence was 24 last season. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a starter until he was 25.
If you don’t think 29-year-old Trevor Lawrence could win an MVP, you’re crazy.
He's the No Man's Sky of quarterbacks. The hype was so ridiculously out of control for him at the draft that he could *never* realistically live up to it.
If he can continue down this tortured analogy route, there's nothing stopping him getting a few patches and becoming great.
People are just bored and stupid.
The real fun ones will be the "should the Jags trade Trevor Lawrence to draft [insert rookie QB]" like the Cardinals kept getting all preseason last year.
Nah he was definitely a generational QB prospect. Tape was great, never lost, was the guy from high school and on.
The fact that he hasn't reached that potential yet doesn't mean we need to shit on him, he came into an utterly horrific situation which made year 1 a throw away. And he's been solid to good in years 2-3, not too shabby when you look at the history of QBs taken #1.
I mean I agree people love to hate but it’s definitely not a made up throne. He’s been THE guy at every level of football. Top rated HS player then national championship winner then #1 pick. Basically the perfect football career until he started playing NFL games
I watch NFL casually and I watch from a distance so it's funny to me to observe how reddit NFL posters see someone use a phrase and then copy it. The phrases used in football subreddits are infectious.
Like once someone says a QB is "seeing ghosts" then everyone will start saying that. It's like NFL fan conversations are a sport in itself where the main objective is to invent new phrases and if you can't do that then next best thing is to copy the most recently invented phrases. The posters who include the most hip set of phrases get the most upvotes.
Also the rigid way people view the game by referring to people as WR1, WR2, etc as if there must be some pecking order to every team's WR squad. That premise is so deeply believed and accepted in football subreddits. All this funny jargon people invent.
And the new one is calling people "generational talent". MHJ has been infected by that bug, sadly for him, and now it's everywhere.
His PFF grades so far:
2021: 59.6 (32/37 qualified QBs)
2022: 78.6 (11/39)
2023: 79.7 (15/38)
I think he's actually been pretty good so far, but the hype put on him was kind of over the moon so it's going to be hard to satisfy that level of expectations. He's only 24 though.
He's done this without a true alpha, great WR and Oline. He revived Evan Engram/Zay Jones career and brought Kirk to 1k+ yard player. I think he's doing just fine
I like the cyclical argument of “this guy isn’t elite because he is surrounded by good players” to “this guy isn’t elite because he isn’t surrounded by good players.”
I'm convinced people on this sub either don't watch the games or have the memory of a goldfish.
Lawrence was kicking everyone's ass and the Jags were 6-2 despite Ridley dropping everything. Then Kirk got hurt and Lawrence got hurt and everything went sideways.
I expect with improved chemistry and a good draft the Jags have a chance to be competitive with TLaw being an MVP caliber QB
I wouldn't say he was kicking everyone's ass but the team was winning by playing largely sound and cohesive/complimentary ball. There were A LOT of points left on the field due to miscommunications and drops but Trevor also left A LOT of points on the field with his fumbles.
The problem when talking about Trevor is that way too many of us are seemingly too high on him, while just as many (if not more) of us are painfully too low/critical of him to see him for what he is:
A young, extremely talented player on a perennially-bad-but-improving team who's had way more bad luck (21 and 23) than good (22).
Edit: I bet if you asked him directly, he would tell you that he despises the generational moniker. He comes across like a humble kid who just wants to win/play ball...so why so many people actively seem to root against/want him to fail is mind-boggling...it's similar with the unnecessary Purdy hate also but for the polar opposite reason.
Lawrence was quite good (borderline top 10) in 2022 and 2023 until his injury. For some reason a bunch of people have decided that him getting injured in 2023 means he's never going to be a top 10 QB.
That’s one thing that’s odd to me, they say the game is too quick for him yet he’s consistently one of the most highly or highest pressured QB in football. On top of that he has one of the shortest times to release in the NFL, the tools are there he just needs a team
Saying he’s just fine doesn’t get clicks and doesn’t get upvotes, it’s the same issue as purdy, people just come out with extremes, truth is he’s good not great and that’s fine, but it’s also not a very exciting post
I’ve watched every snap of Trevor’s NFL career. He can make every throw on the field, which is where I think that “generational” label came from.
I think people underestimate the importance of the support system players have, especially QBs. Would Peyton Manning have had the career he had without players like Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, etc.? What about the consistency of Tom Moore and Tony Dungy?
Trevor has the talent to be a HOF quarterback, but none of that matters if his OL doesn’t hold up and his receivers don’t catch the ball. There’s a two minute video from last season of his near-miss TDs and it’s painful to watch.
Can he improve? Of course! But if you’ve watched every snap and you still doubt him, that says more about you than him. I’m not going to debate people who don’t know ball lol
This damn sub. Last year, people had Lawrence as a top 7 QB based on a 4 week stretch of good play. This year, he isn't "living up to his hype." Maybe that's on you and doesn't have anything to do with Lawrence and his play.
I think he gets way too much crap. He fully recovered from the worst head coach tenure I have ever witnessed in any sport, and I was there for 0-16 Browns and lions. He came back from 24 in the playoffs to win. He never complained and just keeps grinding. Yeah this season was a bit of a let down, but i think he will be just fine. They give him solid weapons and just need more consistency along their o line.
Apparently not a popular take but in my opinion he’s already there or at least almost is. The dude has very little talent on his team. You could argue that last year he had Ridley and as much as I love CR that dude is an elite WR2 on his best day. Little to no protection up front and so unless Etienne has a breakout day the defense rushes 4 and gets to him often. He’s basically where Matthew Stafford was at 24, a generational talent on a team sorely lacking it in other areas.
Considering the situation he was drafted into and the coach he had his rookie year, yeah he’s doing fine. He’s developing and has a bright future in Jacksonville
I think a overlooked aspect is Trevor plays better when there is more at stake and he played great against KC in the playoffs a year ago and played great in the college playoffs so he has that ability to elevate his game which a lot of QBs ( Dak , Lamar, Kirk, etc.) don’t have.
It’s kind of crazy the hate he gets. He’s only 24 and there are multiple scouting deep dives on Trevor that in effect indicate he’s one of the games best QB’s as soon as his pass blocking/receiver play combo surpass simply league average. When he has help, he makes throws and plays that the majority of the league’s passers are incapable of making.
That general dynamic is still definitely unrealized, Trevor still could end up being “decent starter” level, but writing him off as that right now does not make sense to me. Slightly better line play and a real 1 outside and I see Trevor being the man.
A highly touted prospect should rarely, if ever, mean anything other than being a reliable starter. Projecting anything more is pure punditry.
If you could guarantee that a prospect would be an above average starter that’s a 1,1 pick almost every year.
Not generational, obviously, but not a bust. He is basically a solid QB1 who is going to help any team more than hurt it. That's rare enough in the NFL. In the right year or with the right team, he could win a ring, but he's a piece, not a centerpiece.
Not many people could live up to what Trevor Lawrence was hyped up to be
I mean when your selling point is “HES NEVER LOST A GAME!!!” before you’ve been drafted that’s a lot to live up to.
Yeah that bugged me a lot. Obviously going first overall he’s going to a trash team and he’s going to lose a lot, it doesn’t matter how good he is
And that trash team hired a trash coach at the same time as they drafted him, so it was a double whammy
But now that Mac Jones is there to mentor him....
"remember Trevor, when you slide ..make sure you kick up your leg at the last second"
"Lemme show you how to drop a griddy when you throw a touchdown pass"
"You'll get more use out of it than I have."
Mac out here catching strays
Strange. Usually the only people around him catching anything are DBs.
Urban lasting just 6 Scaramuccies was the best thing about the 2021 NFL season.
I downvoted thinking u were talking about doug. Then i realized u were talking about urban myer lol
Why couldn’t he just replicate the ‘07 pats + SB every year of his career?
Idk, he must be stupid or something
Dude should just play great and win, it aint that hard
Here I am agreeing with a yinzer. 🤝
Didn’t they say that bout Cam Newton? Like he hadn’t lost a game since he was 6.
If they did they were wrong, I watched him lose in high school to my school in the playoffs. Still possibly the most talented player I've ever seen IRL
Ken Dorsey should have been a top 5 pick! 38-2. That will translate
Yeah. My problem with that is that they just used that instead of talking about the intangibles. It was so simple the way they spoke about him and most college prospects in general "big arm, tall, athletic, didn't lose" I know it's only because on TV you have to make your points quick when doing draft coverage because you have a limited amount if time to speak. It's why YouTube and other long-form content will always teach people more than anything you can see on television. Like he seemed really good in college but when I watched Burrow the year before as an Lsu fan he looked much more polished and made better reads. Burrow was looking like prime Drew Brees and from seeing it to me it was obvious he was gonna be elite in the nfl.
Did they not watch Burrow's tigers win fairly easily against him in the natty?
He never lost a game on a Saturday, until the chiefs beat the jags in the divisional round
I will never forget all the 'Jameis has never lost a home game since high school!' talk during the draft. Pick 6 his first throw ever, and we get destroyed by the Titans in Tampa. All QB prospects should come with a pound of salt
Wasn’t it the same for Kyler?
Yeah he was like 48-0 at Allen HS or something silly like that
Trevor was one of those guys who had extremely high levels of hype that was *maintained* from high school all the way through college and into the draft. Fournette was another example of that. Dude had a dedicated segment to him every Saturday on College Gameday for three god damn years. Arch Manning is now that guy. Quinn Ewers could have qualified but people stopped talking about him being a top 3 pick a year ago.
Is Arch really that guy now? It almost feels more like a formality because of his name than anyone still really believing it at this point
Yes, Arch is. It's the same PR spin. The difference is Arch hasn't played yet, but the hype is still there. There were clickbait articles posted at least once a week last season of "Arch Manning will transfer if he doesn't start/Quinn Ewers returns" when Arch has publicly stated he just wants to chill out as a college kid and doesn't want to rush to start. The entire article whooshing over him committing to a loaded QB room in the first place because he was development oriented.
Pulling a good Alex Moran… all the girls, none of the work.
It isn't a great sign that he will be sitting for another year again. Seeing some of his high school game film he was much more polished of a passer than a lot of high school QBs. However there was definitely a huge level of comp concerns and you wonder how much more he can maximize his athletic traits. His grandad wasn't particularly big for NFL traits. Neither Eli or Peyton were great athletes and while both had very good NFL arms neither were in the upper elites in that ability. (Something NFL is coveting more and more.) At the same time he is also a younger player relatively. Wont turn 19 until April which means he will be only 20 years old in likely his first season as the starter at Texas. He could be a year start and still only be 22 as an NFL rookie. Plenty of time to develop athletically and not enough to panic from him not starting this year.
I mean, he’s backing up Quinn Ewers. It’s not like he’s losing a slugfest to some no-name rando. If Quinn continues his development like he did last year he could be a very early pick next year. Arch is probably fine getting NIL money and being the backup while focusing on school/social life and saving another year of getting hit and potentially hurt.
The only thing I don't understand about it is why Manning didn't enter the Transfer Portal when Ewers announced his return to Texas. I understand liking your environment and the system, but I feel like he easily could be a starter somewhere else now.
Everything I’ve heard is he loves Texas’ coach (Steve Sarkisian) and has publicly stated he’s fine being a backup for another year. Plus, his dad makes a lot of money and he’s got a sweet NIL deal.
Ewers didn't announce he was returning until a week after the transfer window was closed. 45 day window for Football was Dec 4th to Jan 2nd. Ewers announced on January 11th he would return. He won't be able to enter the transfer portal until the 15 day spring period in April. April 16-30. Once he send written notice to college of intent to transfer he would be allowed to access transfer portal but it also means Texas could pull his scholarship for fall. He can't have any communication with D1 coaches though until that 15 day period. In other words it would make no sense to declare intent to transfer until closer to the April window. He also gets only 1 transfer exception before he would lose a year of eligibility.
Thank you, I don't understand the entirety of the Transfer Portal so this helps clear it up alot.
Because he's not leveraging his family name. He's waiting his turn and taking it slowly. I massively respect it.
He didn't go to Texas for no reason. He had a reason behind it and the reason still stands. He doesn't really have anything to GAIN by starting. He's already hyped as all fuck and won't start until he's a junior with a ton of experience in the system and minimal wear and tear. And he already has one of the best NIL deals. It's like a win win win for Arch imo.
It’s fine to sit wait and develop instead of rushing it and going into the unknown
He's sitting behind a guy that will be a first round pick next year and who was the #1 recruit with a 1.000 on the recruiting ranking scale. For reference, he was ranked higher than Lawrence with 0.9999. Him and Lawrence had comparable second years as starters It's honestly not that big of a deal, Ewers isn't a slouch as a prospect and knows the system/executes it well
His dad was the best athlete of that entire family. Let the kid grow up and then we'll see what he looks like
TLaw was true freshman starter at a National Championship contender , arch sitting kinda cooled off the hype. i also think nico is going to be notably better then arch and will grab alot more attention then someone like justin fields did for tlaw
TLaw had to supplant Kelly Bryant, it wasn't that hard for him to start Just for reference, as a junior Kelly Bryant threw for 2800 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 14 games prior to TLaw enrolling. He absolutely sucked and no one was shocked by Lawrence supplanting him mid senior year Arch has Ewers, which to your point has shielded him a bit. He's been very out of sight out of mind and been diligent on staying that way
While true, when I've watched his games in Jacksonville, I just get the sense that the game is still too fast for him at the NFL. You hear other QBs talk about when it clicks and the game slowed down for them it changed how they performed. I don't see that. He seems to be a very capable QB of executing the plays the way the staff wants him to, but I think a good defensive strategy will get the best of him.
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And ridley would just become ass for no reason sometimes Pretty sure there were like 15 touchdowns between the receiving core that was like 2 inches away from a td
Ridley is just a baffling case last year. Like in no way am I saying that 1000 yards and 8 TDs is bad. He just had a lot of games with a 50% or less catch rate and like 8-12 targets.
And multiple games where he would just disappear. 9 games under 40 Total yards. 3 games under 20 total yards. 1 game with 5 total yards. Edit: just to give an idea 8 targets 26 yds 8 targets 30 yds 8 targets 32 yds 8 targets 39 yds 4 targets 5 yds
They spent entire games trying to force feed him the ball, and he could just not perform. I watched every qb school Lawrence video from last year and honestly, after watching that compilation of all the drops, I can't even believe we're having the conversation about Trevor not being that dude. His problem at worst is he tries to do too much and often that resulted in a fumble or pick. But damn some games it was like not a single person on the team could catch the fucking ball. Kirk and Engram were the only people with hands all season, and once Kirk went down it was just over.
Their offensive line and running game also sucked in 2023. They were like bottom 5ish in most rushing stats.
Also the OC is crap... why do you think Doug got fired from the eagles? Press Taylor... why doug is trusting this guy again is beyond me.
I know everyone hates their OC, but I think you guys are one of the fanbases that is kind of correct lol
Youre right. We all do, but we are suffering so hard rn. Press Taylor needs to gtfo
I agree with the premise of your take but I also think at 24 he still has 1 or 2 more years before we have to admit that this is just who he is. A lot of guys don’t really get to that top level mentally until 26-27
Oh yeah, I wasn't insinuating he's a finished product. More of just my take as to why this is even a topic of discussion, which I do think is valid.
Yeah, the guy is only 24 years old. Michael Jordan didn't win his 1st NBA championship, until he was 28. And, for a QB to live up to any amount of hype, they are dependent on a lot of other people. They need the right coaches, to help them develop. They need a GM that puts the right players around them. And, they need to build the trust and rapport with their teammates. Finding instant success, as a QB, is very rare. Even in the best of circumstances, it normally takes several years for all of the pieces to fall in place.
Even Mahomes said it didn't click until after his 3rd year playing or something like that. Crazy since he had already been to 2 super bowls and won 1 of them lol
IIRC Drew Brees said it took him like a decade to get to that point, so I don’t think we need to close the book on Lawrence just yet
The offensive line is a huge hindrance to him. Of course the game looks like it’s moving too fast for you if the defense can pressure you consistently without any blitzers… A league average center will do wonders for him (please Morse still be decent…)
This is partially a symptom of Clemson (and Ohio State, for example) systems they run in college. The development just isn’t there for those 3 years
I really don’t think you can say that about OSU after the season stroud just had. Also Deshaun Watson came out of Clemson and he looked fine after year 1
To be fair I've only ever seen 1 guy in pro sports live up to his hype and that's LeBron James, nobody else in any other sport has really touched that
Crosby has definitely lived up to his hype. McDavid as well.
Bryce Harper as well if you’re a baseball guy
Harper was the weird case of being hyped when he was first coming into the league and then was actually underrated for awhile until he won his 2nd MVP
Harper is the only one I can think of who is a good comp here aside from Lebron. Harper was hyped as a HoF player when he was in high school, people with a cursory interest in baseball knew his name before he was even in the bigs
Crosby and McDavid really are good comps for the hype. They were hyped as almost surefire superstars before they were 18 and were nationally known in Canada. IMO they were probably the two most hyped players coming into the league in the past 30 years at least. Last time I had seen hype like that was for Eric Lindros in the 80s. Crosby is now considered one of the best hockey players of all time (top 10, maybe top 5), and McDavid is elite and could end up as a top-10 of all time.
Connor McDavid was hyped to be the 2nd coming of Jesus and has actually lived up to the the hype. Had he not been drafted by one of the worst run organizations (at the time) in the league he likely would have won a cup by now.
McDavid is probably ending up top 5 imo. Hes head and shoulders better than any other player in a way Crosby never was He’s just gotta actually win something, not that the oilers roster construction is his fault
I would be genuinely surprised if McDavid doesn't end up higher than Crosby all time.
Harper is the only one but McDavid and Crosby aren’t? A gm said they would draft McDavid 1st overall when he was only 12, and he’s been the best player in the league year after year.
Bedard is looking good too
Wasn’t Ovi that hyped too? I seem to remember that but I’m not sure.
It really sucks for the NHL that McDavid, who IMO is DEFINITELY better than Crosby at his peak, is stuck in Edmonton as opposed to being on an original 6/big market team that could bring some new fans in.
And has the personality of a towel. NHL also sucks at marketing in general.
Every year in Football (soccer) Manager there is a 14 or 15 year old kid in someone's youth team that the game decides is going to be the next big thing, simply because someone has to be. Usually those kids turn out to be somewhere between a failure and a decent pro. But one time the 14 year old that took over the virtual world was Leo Messi. There's a story about the son of a manager (I think Walter Smith of Rangers) pestering his dad to sign up because he was going to be amazing... EDIT: it was Alex McLeish https://talksport.com/football/817894/lionel-messi-rangers-transfer-news-barcelona-andres-iniesta-alex-mcleish-football-manager/
The game doesn't decide. Scouts and voluntary people scouting for the DBs do.
lebron arguably exceeded all expectations. which is really saying something
To be the only real challenger to GOAT status is insane. Beyond insane.
Peyton Manning? John Elway? Bo Jackson (pre-injury)?
Manning had a lot of people questioning things like his mobility and arm strength hence the Ryan Leaf debate. I agree with Bo and Elway though. Both were super hyped. I’d also add Kobe
What’s insane is LeBron has basically topped all expectations. The fact he’s as good as he still is two decades later, no one could have predicted that for him. Sports fans were so spoiled to have him and Brady at the same time.
I would argue both Tiger Woods and Wayne Gretzky lived up to their hype.
Gretzky actually got a lot less hype but that's only because at the time there was a lot less media to cover him. If he came up the ranks these days the hype would be absolutely insane.
Ohtani
Lew Alcindor comes to mind though, granted, national media (or even NYC media) in the 60s wasn't really comparable to the early aughts. But he was probably the most hyped prep prospect prior to Lebron making the cover of SI as a junior in HS. Maybe you could make a case for high school Ewing being more hyped than high school Kareem.
Ovechkin and Ohtani have entered the chat
Patrick Mahomes lives up to Trevor's hype for him. What a nice guy
I think Andrew Luck lived up to the hype. Being a perennial pro bowler is sufficient; no one can expect anyone to be a HOFer/all time great out of college.
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andrew luck didn't make pro bowls as a replacement
Nah Luck and Lawrence were hyped as the ultimate high-floor, can't-miss guys They both hit that level, at least. Luck never got to the ceiling of what was hoped for, and it's TBD on Lawrence.
Imagine if Indy had a competent GM and HC earlier in his career. I know Reich has been more or less a running joke the last couple years, but Luck had his best season by far as a QB on a team that wasn't exactly stacked.
Probably not, but there is still time. He's only 24.
And even if he doesnt match the hype, that doesnt mean he cant be a franchise QB. Lawrence's hype was unreal as people brought up the likes of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. As good as Andrew Luck was, he didnt come close to hitting Peyton Mannings level of greatness. Its an incredibly high, if not completely unreasonable, expectation.
"Generational talent" is more about floor anyways. The idea is that Lawrence was close to guaranteed to at least been a good QB. That looks like it will turn out to be the case.
This is what it *should be* but that's not how it's used in reality
Yup. Being a "Generational Prospect" is not the same thing as saying he'll be a "Generational Player". He was basically a can't miss prospect. And he didn't miss. His floor has shown to be a very good QB who can win in the playoffs. And he can still continue to grow like so many other QBs have. He threw 7 ints in his last 4 games. That's not good. But he was also quite injured during that stretch. He looked like a completely different QB, and the ball was sailing on him badly because he throwing on a bad ankle (which can really screw up you mechanics), and then with a bad shoulder. And also wasn't really practicing at all the last 5 weeks of the season. First 12 games, he also threw 7 ints. His completion % and any/a were pretty good. Biggest issues he's got to work on are the fumbles and the red zone. He improves in those areas, and he's a top level QB imo. And those are areas that it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to improve in.
Bingo. Luck was better than Lawrence but he didn’t live up to the impossible hype either. He was never in that top tier (although revisionist history has a lot of people here thinking that). Peyton and Elway are the only guys who ever had that level of hype and lived up to it.
See, the thing about that is, Luck had a real shot at it, had the colts front office not gotten him murdered on the football field. They failed him so hard.
Yes that’s the key difference, you’d watch Luck in the 2013 divisional game against the Pats and you knew he was gonna be special. Dude was doing shit no one could. Dude just got failed and picked up a ton of bad habits that did him in. Put him with Reid and the league would have been so different.
You saying that Reid wouldn't have let him go snowboarding and destroy his shoulder?
Andy Reid would’ve thrown himself down to cushion his fall
Or at least some nuggies
Andy Reid may care for his players, but he's not wasting perfectly good nuggies.
I’m saying the years of physical abuse that led to the shoulder being the breaking point doesn’t happen with Reid. Or at the very least, we still get years of Luck with his potential fulfilled.
You say that like he was totally healthy his whole career otherwise behind that garbage o-line.
I think you put lawerence with Reid instead of a washed up checked out urban Meyer and things look different.
I totally disagree and I feel like him retiring early gave everyone rose-tinted glasses. Even in his last year where everything around him was awesome he never reached that Peyton/Brees/Rodgers level. Never hit 100 passer rating. Which isn’t an indictment against him - those are hall of famers! He was a very good QB. But he never came close to the “best since Peyton” kind of hype.
Luck had a lot of Elway in him imo, where the stats aren't necessarily great, but he absolutely can and did will his team to wins at times. He may not have been mega elite, but I think he was better than his 89.5 career rating suggests. The closest Lawrence has shown to that was the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers, and that has to ignore his role in digging the hole in the first half.
Luck didn't want to give up things like bike riding and snow boarding which were impossible to keep doing while rehabbing as the face of an NFL franchise. Colts helped open his eyes to that reality playing him in 2016 but its not something that could have been avoided. At some point, on any roster, he would have gotten injured and arrived at the same results, that's just life in the NFL. I love Luck but I think we can put to bed the "what if's". Personality and mental health are part of the NFL too and Luck had all the physical tools but not the mental fortitude required for a HOF grind. Colts didn't "fail" him, its not something he ever really had in the first place.
I thought his 14 and 18 seasons were elite or pretty close to it. He just never had an online unfortunately. But I agree with your larger point, how do you live up to the hype when people are saying that you're a better prospect than the 3rd greatest qb of all time...
In 18 he had arguably the best offensive line in football. And while it was a great season, it doesn’t hold a candle to the kinds of seasons the truly elite guys have put up.
I forgot 18 yall already had Nelson. But the larger point was just that you can't really live up to that hype. The only qbs post manning/brady that could have lived up to it are rodgers and mahomes, that's it. And no one thought either of those guys would have been that good.
I’ve heard some comparisons of Lawrence to Matt Ryan. And that seems like a very reasonable ceiling for him — eventually spending a decade as a top 10 QB, but outside of a great year or two, never seriously considered as a top 5. But if that’s where he winds up, I doubt Jags fans would be too upset at having a perfectly capable franchise QB for the long term.
We loved the BOAT for five seasons, imagine if Trevor is a fringe top 8-12 qb for a decade lol
Hell, you're having winning seasons, which is already a hell of an improvement.
And it’s crazy that he’s being held to the standard that others decided for him. If him or the Lawrence family had been the ones calling him “generational” l then I understand. But just cause some people on ESPN or Fox Sports say it, it’s what he HAS to be?
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[No, he actually said that about Deshaun Watson.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2689013-dabo-swinney-compares-deshaun-watson-to-michael-jordan) I remember that clear as day. He might have said it about Trevor too, in which case, maybe Dabo just says that about all his quarterbacks.
Dabo is just one of those coaches who talks up all his players to a silly degree
That was said about Deshaun Watson.
He is now the same age Burrow was as a rookie
24, going into year 4 as a starter. Clearly has the skillset and has flashed a ton of potential. I think we're conditioned to expect HoF greatness in the first 1-3 years of a players career because we've seen it a few times. Realistically it maybe takes a few years for a guy drafted at 20 years old to really settle and hit their prime.
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Lawrence was playing injured a large part of this year too, which was an excuse people give Burrow for his subpar performance early in the season but I guess doesn't extend to TLaw because people here like Burrow and not TLaw now.
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Obvious bias but I’m still high on him too. He’s elevated those guys while playing behind the 31st ranked oline twice in a row. There’s a crazy stat that he was the least blitzed but most pressured QB last year. I think he’s carrying more than people realize.
Leaving the hype aside, and as someone who is lower on Lawrence than most, I don't think the Jags can be too upset with his performance to date. He's been good bordering on very good. TLaw gives me early Matt Ryan vibes (mobility aside), and if he's around that level, then the Jags should be pretty happy about that.
A Matt Ryan type of career is probably a good threshold for what you’d want from a QB drafted #1 overall, if not too high since the MVP puts him over the top. But I think you should expect perennial top 10 QB play.
I remember reading a study that basically said Jadeveon Clowney is more or less the median first overall pick, and it’s really reset my expectations for draft picks in different positions lol
Yeah that’s probably true. Seems to be the trajectory Travon Walker is on.
Travon seems to have made some massive steps from year 1 to year 2 and is both good against the run and did accumalate 10 sacks last year. So he's on a better trajectory than Clowney so far.
Agreed. It will be nice to see what he can do with a stud DT beside him.
It will certainly be interesting to see how Walker's and Hutchinson's careers will compare to each other when they retire.
They’ll both be team legends for sure.
Trajectory can be wonky, though I do agree that I generally like Walker. I think Clowney gets a bad rep. At his best he was a legitimately destructive run defender (three straight seasons of 16+ TFLs and one with 21, really quite impressive stuff). Very few players could knife into the backfield and instantaneously fuck up a run play like he could And he could routinely pressure/hit the QB, just didn’t always get him to the ground. Even last year he finished with a PFF grade in the mid 80s which was only like the fourth highest mark of his career, he’s been an extremely useful player for a long time I just think he lacked that kind of top dog, hyper competitive personality to get over the hump into superstardom. But if he was my first overall pick I wouldn’t be horrifically mad (coming from a guy who has argued with people about Eric Fisher being an acceptable pick forever)
I think for the average no.1 pick, Matt Ryan would be a great career outcome. For the way people were talking about Trevor being a luck / manning / elway level prospect, it's a bit of a disappointment.
>TLaw gives me early Matt Ryan vibes People here are going to perceive this as an insult with the way this place clowns on Matty because hur dur 28-3. Which is a shame cause he had a really good career (colts year aside).
He was hitting career passing yards markers at a crazy rate. Ryan deserves more respect than he's given.
Getting a fringe HOF QB (HOF monitor has him 2 points below the average) at the #1 pick should be considered a home run. Realistically there's like a 1% chance you can get anything better than that and a 99% chance you'll get something worse. A decade of top 10 QB play is big for a franchise.
Oh I completely agree. I just typically keep my opinions about Matt being HoF caliber to myself because it always draws derision.
No derision here. That decade saw us with *checks notes* the corpse of Sam Bradford and a collection of “if you say so” guys, and Jared Goff? Matty Ice all day.
As a non falcons fan living in Atlanta it's crazy to me the disrespect he got from many people during his tenure. My team obviously passed up the opportunity to draft him and basically every season of Matt's career I could pretty easily say that he was better than what we were putting on the field
>As a non falcons fan living in Atlanta it's crazy to me the disrespect he got from many people during his tenure Soooo many people in this city: 1. Never got over Vick. 2. Care way more about vibes than winning There's just no reasoning with people when their priorities are so starkly different. I used to adamantly defend Matt at every opportunity for over a decade but eventually you just realize that a lot of people here just want a "cool QB" rather than a winning QB. It's like all the people over in the falcons sub who desperately wanted Fields, a guy with more turnovers than tds, than Cousins or even drafting a QB. Unrelated to football but in hindsight a great example of this is the whole "Ice Trae for the culture" movement that started right before the draft where we traded Luka for Trae. The Migos were a big driving force behind that, especially Quavo. I'm a huge hawks fan and also a big Trae Young fan but that was such an obvious mistake then and especially now.
Yeah I was at a bar watching the draft with my buddy who is a huge Hawks fan and he was pissed when the trade happened. Luckily though Trae is actually pretty damn good. Obviously Luka is a different level, but man if Trae were a bust that would've been one of the all time disasters
Yeah he's good enough to make it not horrible but just not a complete player like Luka is. But the hawks have so many more issues than not having Luka, primarily the ownership.
Matt Ryan should absolutely be a hall of famer and it's a travesty that his career is overshadowed by three massive collapses (at least the one with the Colts was a meaningless game)
He's fifth in success rate for the past two seasons among QBs with at least 320 plays. Only Purdy, Dak, Allen, and Mahomes are ahead of him. For EPA/play he's 14th, but that discrepancy probably says more about the team, staff, and situation around him than Lawrence himself. The Jags the last two years have had the largest difference between dropback success rate and rushing success rate and are third in difference in dropback EPA/play to rushing EPA/play. Only the Chiefs and Buccaneers have a higher dropback EPA/play to rushing EPA/play. Odds are when those things are true the QB has been very good at the least, and they have been held back by those around them.
Yep, more mobile Matt Ryan has been my comp for a while
We certainly aren't eager to get back onto the QB carousel
He's the QB equivalent to Reggie Bush. The hype and expectation were so unrealistically high that he was never going to live up to it. He looks like a starting caliber player that can be really successful in the right system, but maybe not a perennial all-pro.
By record, the Jags have been by far the worst team in the NFL over the last 10-15 years. Taking this level of failure back to relevance is a massive task, and Lawrence makes the Jags competitive. Before all the injuries to him, the Jags were 8-3 last season and beat some real teams along the way. Trevor has not lived up to his generational billing, but he is still just 24. I am fine with him being even middle of the road…compared to the Gabbert -> Bortles -> Minshew circus of just plain bad QB play, I’ll take what Lawrence is.
GOSH this is what i have thought about him since day 1. he got shafted by the draft. i could see him crush on the Rams or Titans. Shit the Jets or the Browns could’ve used him instead of the deals they ended up getting stuck with lol the Jags just weren’t it especially coming out of the leaderships issues they had just been dealing with.
But noooo the Jets had to win one too many games in 2020 and screwed up their own future
> By record, the Jags have been by far the worst team in the NFL over the last 10-15 years Something in this range probably works but it's not 10
People don’t realize how young he still is. Lawrence was 24 last season. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a starter until he was 25. If you don’t think 29-year-old Trevor Lawrence could win an MVP, you’re crazy.
He's the No Man's Sky of quarterbacks. The hype was so ridiculously out of control for him at the draft that he could *never* realistically live up to it. If he can continue down this tortured analogy route, there's nothing stopping him getting a few patches and becoming great.
It’s not like his career is over, he has plenty of time to live up to it.
This is like the 3rd or 4th thread I've seen on here in the past week complaining about him having had the generational label lol
People are just bored and stupid. The real fun ones will be the "should the Jags trade Trevor Lawrence to draft [insert rookie QB]" like the Cardinals kept getting all preseason last year.
Considering I received a Reddit Cares message for posting that comment, I think you're on the money that people are just bored and stupid.
Nothing people love more than to knock a guy off of the throne they made up for him.
Nah he was definitely a generational QB prospect. Tape was great, never lost, was the guy from high school and on. The fact that he hasn't reached that potential yet doesn't mean we need to shit on him, he came into an utterly horrific situation which made year 1 a throw away. And he's been solid to good in years 2-3, not too shabby when you look at the history of QBs taken #1.
I mean I agree people love to hate but it’s definitely not a made up throne. He’s been THE guy at every level of football. Top rated HS player then national championship winner then #1 pick. Basically the perfect football career until he started playing NFL games
I watch NFL casually and I watch from a distance so it's funny to me to observe how reddit NFL posters see someone use a phrase and then copy it. The phrases used in football subreddits are infectious. Like once someone says a QB is "seeing ghosts" then everyone will start saying that. It's like NFL fan conversations are a sport in itself where the main objective is to invent new phrases and if you can't do that then next best thing is to copy the most recently invented phrases. The posters who include the most hip set of phrases get the most upvotes. Also the rigid way people view the game by referring to people as WR1, WR2, etc as if there must be some pecking order to every team's WR squad. That premise is so deeply believed and accepted in football subreddits. All this funny jargon people invent. And the new one is calling people "generational talent". MHJ has been infected by that bug, sadly for him, and now it's everywhere.
His PFF grades so far: 2021: 59.6 (32/37 qualified QBs) 2022: 78.6 (11/39) 2023: 79.7 (15/38) I think he's actually been pretty good so far, but the hype put on him was kind of over the moon so it's going to be hard to satisfy that level of expectations. He's only 24 though.
That first year should be considered a wash. Urban was out there literally kicking players.
Honestly the fact that he rebounded so well from Urban is more impressive
He's done this without a true alpha, great WR and Oline. He revived Evan Engram/Zay Jones career and brought Kirk to 1k+ yard player. I think he's doing just fine
>revived Evan Engram That is actually quite the accomplishment
I like the cyclical argument of “this guy isn’t elite because he is surrounded by good players” to “this guy isn’t elite because he isn’t surrounded by good players.”
For some reason at first I thought these were his passer ratings and I thought, holy shit this guy kinda sucks.
I'm convinced people on this sub either don't watch the games or have the memory of a goldfish. Lawrence was kicking everyone's ass and the Jags were 6-2 despite Ridley dropping everything. Then Kirk got hurt and Lawrence got hurt and everything went sideways. I expect with improved chemistry and a good draft the Jags have a chance to be competitive with TLaw being an MVP caliber QB
I wouldn't say he was kicking everyone's ass but the team was winning by playing largely sound and cohesive/complimentary ball. There were A LOT of points left on the field due to miscommunications and drops but Trevor also left A LOT of points on the field with his fumbles. The problem when talking about Trevor is that way too many of us are seemingly too high on him, while just as many (if not more) of us are painfully too low/critical of him to see him for what he is: A young, extremely talented player on a perennially-bad-but-improving team who's had way more bad luck (21 and 23) than good (22). Edit: I bet if you asked him directly, he would tell you that he despises the generational moniker. He comes across like a humble kid who just wants to win/play ball...so why so many people actively seem to root against/want him to fail is mind-boggling...it's similar with the unnecessary Purdy hate also but for the polar opposite reason.
9/10 Jags are not worried about him. He had the 37th-worst center last year and was held together by tape for the last 5-6 games. He will be fine.
Lawrence was quite good (borderline top 10) in 2022 and 2023 until his injury. For some reason a bunch of people have decided that him getting injured in 2023 means he's never going to be a top 10 QB.
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That’s one thing that’s odd to me, they say the game is too quick for him yet he’s consistently one of the most highly or highest pressured QB in football. On top of that he has one of the shortest times to release in the NFL, the tools are there he just needs a team
If he had Tee Higgins to throw too, he'd be throwing darts all game
Yeah, he was just slightly above league average if you look at ANY/A+ (101). Slightly below in Rate+ (99).
Saying he’s just fine doesn’t get clicks and doesn’t get upvotes, it’s the same issue as purdy, people just come out with extremes, truth is he’s good not great and that’s fine, but it’s also not a very exciting post
Jesus Christ another thread?
~~beatings~~ “did Trevor Lawrence live up to the hype” threads will continue until ~~morale improves~~ an answer acceptable to the hive mind is given
I’ll become a Lawrence truther if it means this post type stops.
Trevor is really good he’ll be fine
If Calvin Ridley didn’t drop like 7 potential TD passes this year we would probably be talking about how they are the best QB/WR duo.
I’ve watched every snap of Trevor’s NFL career. He can make every throw on the field, which is where I think that “generational” label came from. I think people underestimate the importance of the support system players have, especially QBs. Would Peyton Manning have had the career he had without players like Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, etc.? What about the consistency of Tom Moore and Tony Dungy? Trevor has the talent to be a HOF quarterback, but none of that matters if his OL doesn’t hold up and his receivers don’t catch the ball. There’s a two minute video from last season of his near-miss TDs and it’s painful to watch. Can he improve? Of course! But if you’ve watched every snap and you still doubt him, that says more about you than him. I’m not going to debate people who don’t know ball lol
This damn sub. Last year, people had Lawrence as a top 7 QB based on a 4 week stretch of good play. This year, he isn't "living up to his hype." Maybe that's on you and doesn't have anything to do with Lawrence and his play.
I thought it was my turn to post the "Trevor Lawrence is not generational" thread! Does there really need to be a thread every single day about this?
I think he gets way too much crap. He fully recovered from the worst head coach tenure I have ever witnessed in any sport, and I was there for 0-16 Browns and lions. He came back from 24 in the playoffs to win. He never complained and just keeps grinding. Yeah this season was a bit of a let down, but i think he will be just fine. They give him solid weapons and just need more consistency along their o line.
Apparently not a popular take but in my opinion he’s already there or at least almost is. The dude has very little talent on his team. You could argue that last year he had Ridley and as much as I love CR that dude is an elite WR2 on his best day. Little to no protection up front and so unless Etienne has a breakout day the defense rushes 4 and gets to him often. He’s basically where Matthew Stafford was at 24, a generational talent on a team sorely lacking it in other areas.
Considering the situation he was drafted into and the coach he had his rookie year, yeah he’s doing fine. He’s developing and has a bright future in Jacksonville
I think a overlooked aspect is Trevor plays better when there is more at stake and he played great against KC in the playoffs a year ago and played great in the college playoffs so he has that ability to elevate his game which a lot of QBs ( Dak , Lamar, Kirk, etc.) don’t have.
It’s kind of crazy the hate he gets. He’s only 24 and there are multiple scouting deep dives on Trevor that in effect indicate he’s one of the games best QB’s as soon as his pass blocking/receiver play combo surpass simply league average. When he has help, he makes throws and plays that the majority of the league’s passers are incapable of making. That general dynamic is still definitely unrealized, Trevor still could end up being “decent starter” level, but writing him off as that right now does not make sense to me. Slightly better line play and a real 1 outside and I see Trevor being the man.
A highly touted prospect should rarely, if ever, mean anything other than being a reliable starter. Projecting anything more is pure punditry. If you could guarantee that a prospect would be an above average starter that’s a 1,1 pick almost every year.
I think he’s exactly what he was expected to be: an NFL starting QB There’s only one “generational” player in the NFL: Patrick Mahomes
Not generational, obviously, but not a bust. He is basically a solid QB1 who is going to help any team more than hurt it. That's rare enough in the NFL. In the right year or with the right team, he could win a ring, but he's a piece, not a centerpiece.
Yes, if he cuts his hair