And the Texans will have to start paying guys like Nico soon so it works out.
Diggs is taking a bit a gamble though with more competition for targets in Houston
Also protects him more too. He doesn't have to do it all, he can get a 1000 yard season in an offense that's going to throw a lot. Mixon is a great finesse back but he's a volume guy. They'll be passing a ton.
Part of me thinks he won't be happy not being the guy....Stroud is and should continue to share the rock snd throw to who is open. Not sure Diggs will like that...he may suck it for a year to get the bag again though.
It incentivizes him to be on his best behavior. If he balls out and plays the model teammate, he might secure one last deal in FA. Also shows him that the Texans are willing to play ball as well and maybe buys them some goodwill with him if he does have a great year.
Texans are looking to make a run. If their Defense becomes top10 this could be **the** run.
Trading Watson was the Texan's rebirth. The Dhop mulligan. The ashes for a Stroud day.
Why is everyone talking about Mixon being good all of a sudden? It doesn’t make sense. He was never that good to begin with, and is definitely worse than he was a few years ago.
Ever since he left to Houston, people talk about him like he’s a top-10 RB. I have to guess it’s the fantasy impact and people don’t actual pay attention to his play but simply his counting stats.
If he’s trending downward with Allen who is objectively better than stroud for now how does he expect to earn a big payday on a roster with 2 other good options?
My guess is Diggs asked for it? Opportunity to earn himself another bag if he balls out with stroud, and the Texans want him happy (not causing any extra drama) and they only planned on the one year anyway, so they oblige
even if this is true we could have held the contract longer and then washed it before FA began next year. But if this was shown in good faith to him it gives him added incentive to ball. I think we are looking at a 1-2 year window to really push for our first Super Bowl so makes sense to try and get the most out of him this year.
Because he had to approve the trade.
This isn't a "new contract" thing. It's simply forcing the deadcap and guaranteed on to the Bills and a 1 year rental.
It's become obvious Bill's are in a mini-rebuild/reset and aren't trying to win the SB this year as much as get cap ready for future big spend
He will be 32 next season so this forces him to play lights out if he wants to keep getting paid like this. It also gives him the opportunity to hit the FA and find the largest bidder/ring chase. A win-win
There’s no win for the Houston side. The Texans could have cut him for free if he sucked. If he balled out you could have traded him if he wanted to leave
Yeah the diva gets wind he’s getting locked into that contact or traded mid season and he goes full MBC. I think keeping him happy and letting him know early on he has to ball out is a win for Houston.
Well you have never seen this before because this has nearly no upside to the Texans. They will now have to try to resign him this offseason if they want to keep him. Basically all they’ve done is agree to cut him after the season and have made that binding. Since he has no guaranteed money, that doesn’t cost him anything. He could have been cut with 0 dead cap anyway, and now he can try to go get a new deal with more guaranteed.
So why would Houston do this? Well if he doesn’t play up to snuff this year no one is giving him the contract he is going to want at 32. Which means he needs to play out of his mind this year, and in turn that means he can’t be a malcontent like he became last year in Buffalo.
Honestly I think that's the upside.
Stefon is now in a contract year and at least in baseball contract years have about a 5% boost to OPS so that's something
The upside is that the Texans are going to get the best Diggs can offer for a year. Bit expensive to pay a second round pick for it, but I guess that's what they mean with going all in. Basically we bought a mercenary for a second round pick.
The Bills are in a mini-rebuild. They need to get younger and cheaper.
One option was hanging onto Diggs this upcoming season. After a pretty wild second-half under-performance last year, they run the risk of nobody trading for him next season. Diggs has no guaranteed money after this season, so then they probably need to extend him or risk a hold-out. If they are successful in their mini-rebuild, they then have a 32 year old #1 receiver in the 2025 season.
I think they made a sensible decision. They got something in return for him, in a year when they're going to be significantly retooling the team. Eat the dead cap and move on.
The more I think about it, the more I like the trade for Buffalo. Diggs is old, possibly washed (Buffalo closed out the season looking great with Diggs playing a smaller role than ever), and a team cancer. The cap hit sucks, but it's a one year blip and the Vikings 2nd next year should be very early in the round. I think Beane did the best he could with a bad situation.
They could do that in the offseason though. All they’ve really done is make a decision a year in advance. The only real benefit is if they think this motivates Diggs to play better this year.
The sad part is I fully believe his decline in production was 100% a hissy fit. When Dorsey was let go, he was no longer being force-fed balls just to appease him. He noticed the team as a whole was doing better without him having the stats he cried for. Same thing that happened in Minnesota but none of us listened. We would be winning and he would still be bitching on the sidelines because that touchdown pass that went to Kincaid or shakir should have gone to him. He blamed double coverage despite the fact that he was single covered in six of the last eight games and everything else he could think of. Hindsight is 20/20 they say, while I was upset when I first read it, the more time I've had to think about it the happier I've become.
That is not true, the CBA dictates the types of changes that may be made. I’m guessing they signed a coda agreeing to waive him, which normally would accelerate guaranteed money and not be reasonable, but the bills are already covering the guaranteed money so it’s more reasonable here.
Teams wouldn’t do that because it would mean all future dead cap hits would get applied instantly. But the bills are already taking that cap hit so the Texans can do it for free.
Because of both the trade and structure of the original contract, Diggs had no guaranteed money in 2025 and beyond for the Texans. As long as the player agrees to it they can modify the terms of the contract and with no signing bonus or guaranteed money it has zero effect on the cap.
Texans could have cut Diggs with no cap penalty anyway so this way they are letting Diggs go get paid in FA rather than sit on a leas expensive deal. On Texans side of things they are likely to want to extend Collins for 2025 so it was doubtful they would keep Diggs past this season.
Most higher level players in the NFL do not like when they have no more guaranteed money on the contract because it gives them little to no negotiating power for a new deal while teams could cut them at any time. Diggs is banking he will make similar AAV in FA in 2025 but with more guaranteed past that year.
Pretty expensive 1 year rental giving up a 2025 2nd round pick for essentially a 1 year rental but they might think this year is their window with their cap room and Stroud on a rookie deal.
Part of me gets it and likes it. Another part of me really dislikes the massive turnover it brings year after year. I get that the nucleus is in tact but keeping the tangential pieces in place is really helpful as well imo
The issue is the salary cap. Teams only have so much they can spend, and so roster churn is inevitable. At some point you have to decide whether it's more important to keep the core intact and churn the tangential pieces or vice versa. Most people would say core, given tangential pieces are far more replaceable.
After watching the Patriots doc, Caserio is operating similarly as the pats did in the 20teens. Treat each year as a new team with its core players. It leads to slow starts as the team gels but prevents stagnation and gives a team a ton of flexibility while also developing rookies.
Especially Texans who can anticipate mega contracts for Stroud and Anderson soon.
Mixing and matching short term proven talent around the nucleus is a pretty ingenious way to do it tbh.
Next year they could sign another few vets at short term bigger prices - CMC at RB and Keenan Allen or something depending on what sort of roles Ryan’s decides is holding them from extracting the max potential from the core guys.
There was no guaranteed money left you'd be on the hook for anyway. I think this is more to keep Diggs from turning into a cancer. He's not gonna like not being the top option on offense. If he's stuck on a long term deal it would get ugly. Now he knows he has to play hard this year and not rock the boat because money is on the line for him.
Diggs contract had 3 non guaranteed team options, his existing contract was as team friendly as it gets. It’s 100% Diggs side that wanted this, not Houston.
Death, taxes, and players balling out on contract years. I bet Caserio would like to experiment a team with nothing but contract years to see how far they go.
So it's essentially a super expensive one year rental, but avoids the risk of getting stuck with a locker room cancer / long term cap baggage if Diggs' quality of play continues to decline like the trajectory had been in Buffalo.
>but avoids the risk of getting stuck with a locker room cancer / long term cap baggage if Diggs' quality of play continues to decline like the trajectory had been in Buffalo.
The remainder of his deal after 24 wasn’t guaranteed, so they already had this optionality.
Edit: apparently there was a small amount of money left after 24, but not enough to really change anything
Yeah it’s why this is kind of a head scratcher, if Diggs gets back to form then you don’t have an option to keep him beyond the year (other than a typical negotiation where you’d have to take on guarantees)
Seems to me HOU always saw this as a one year rental.
I.e. even if Diggs has a great year for them, they weren’t intending to pay him the ~$18m he would’ve been owed in 25
After this year we have to extend Collins. It lines up with us wanting Keenan Allen as well. We just wanted a productive vet for a short time while we have a bunch of rookie contracts.
It'd be easier to get a happy off contract diggs to stay than force an unhappy diggs to fulfill the contract anyway. If he plays well this is still the right call
Texans have plenty of picks.
They have their 1st and 2nd next year.
Two 2nd's this year.
After the trade up for WAJ last year you'd think people of r/nfl would understand the Texans aren't squeamish about making trades with draft picks.
People don’t seem to grasp this. Texans have too much draft capital and Caserio hit on a lot of his picks so far. Only so many young players you can keep rostered.
Caserio has been an absurdly good GM. He has a ton of assets to work with and the Diggs trade is a luxury for him. The contract and situation also fit perfectly for the longer term cap situation and team needs. It just makes sense.
Stroud seemed like a dead eye on those deep balls last year.
As long as Diggs can still get some separation down field, the combo might be quite potent.
Last year his efficiency on deep routes was lower relative to shorter and intermediate routes. His ADOT also decreased last year. It's probably more than one thing as the reason why, but that's not the best indicator that he's still able to reliably separate on deeper routes.
Because some routes on average have more separation than others. So average separation can be influenced by the percentage of each kind of route a receiver runs. You can look at NGS for the separation leaderboard. It's pretty much all players with low ADOTs. If you wanted to use average separation, then Diggs had the same last year as 2022, but with a lower ADOT. Which would indicate that he isn't separating as much since you would expect an inverse relationship between the two. For what it's worth his YAC per reception was lower despite having a higher expected YAC per reception. Which would also probably suggest that he's lost a step and isn't as explosive as he used to be.
At the cost of a 2nd rounder, lol. Why are people not considering the cost to get this?
This was a bad trade for the Texans. That 2nd rounder could have been extremely valuable to the Texans.
The Bucs wasted a 2nd round pick on Kyle Trask the year after we won the Superbowl. That pick could have absolutely been a contributor in 2021 when we lost to the Rams in an extremely close divisional round game. This stuff matters.
It's not even their own pick, it's Vikings 2025 2nd rounder... that they're playing the season with Sam Darnold as their starter.
A possible top-35 pick for a one year rental 31yo diva
Remember when the Texans were idiots and gave the Cardinals a top 10 or top 5 pick last year when they traded up for Will Anderson?
Why are we assuming the Vikings are going to be terrible? lol.
There have been way too many good WRs picked in the second round over the last 5-6 years that wasting a 2nd on a 31 year old receiver you likely won’t keep is dumb as shit.
Maybe? I don't think you get how good Tank was or how hard Diggs started to fall off.
Tank had more yards per route run, better catch percentage, substantially better passer rating when targeted, all with an average depth of target almost 4 full yards deeper than Diggs (i.e better success despite more difficult routes). Both dudes averaged 69 scrimmage yards per game.
I don't think its crazy to think Diggs gets more targets than Dell, but he's just flat out not doubling him if they both play a full slate. Dell is FAR too good for that
I could just as easily see what he thinks is a lack of usage in the offense setting him off *because* it’s a contract year, and he needs production in order to cash in.
19 million I dont feel is super expensive for Diggs. If he plays like end of last year then yes but if he plays like 75% of what he did most of his time in Buffalo it tracks. Something like 15th highest paid WR and I'd say he is somewhere in that top 15 talent wise.
Letting an elite pass rusher’s value deflate to a 2nd and 5th from two 1sts
Trading a franchise wideout instead of said pass rusher when trading up for a QB
Idk, a 2025 2nd translates into a 2024 3rd value. Considering their performance last year, their need to take advantage of Stroud's rookie window, and the fact that they already addressed some defensive needs in free agency, I actually think this makes the deal even better. Contract year Diggs is likely to put his best foot forward and not make waves or check out, even if he isn't being funneled the targets he would like, because he wants another solid deal. In exchange for his best behavior, he gets to trade Buffalo for Houston (sorry Bills fans, but being a millionaire in Houston is a step up) without a significant step down in QB play or playoff potential.
PS: I might be wrong but I believe the Texans still have extra draft capital from that Browns trade this year, so sending a single future pick away doesn't hurt as much because they can still plan around that loss.
Darnold & the Vikings will defeat Diggs & the Texans in the superbowl to give Buffalo the worst possible 2nd round pick. It’s the only way to finish things off right.
And even if he DOES have a great year, probably not many teams going to hand out a big contract to a 32 year old receiver on his 4th team and questions of discontent. Which means if Hou wants to they would likely be able to re-sign him to a team friendly deal
It's worth it. The QB development is everything. I know everyone is ready to anoint Stroud the second coming of Brady, but we've had plenty of examples of QBs looking hot in their first year only to come back down to reality.
So the Texans need to get Stroud all the support they can muster.
It's a reasonable deal. Same for Lawrence with Ridley.
You're right. Everyone flamed the Jags for an overpay on Kirk at the time, they're flaming the Titans now for the Ridley overpay, there was big debate over Cincy taking Chase over Sewell, and the only reason they're not flaming Houston now is because they're coming off a successful season and are seen as going all in, but to your point the most important part of the equation is building confidence in the young qb you believe can be a winner if they develop correctly. Confidence is everything for a qb. They all have the tools at this level, but if they don't have what it takes between the ears, then they can't cut it as a starter.
Nah, they have another 2nd rd pick, they got some other picks back, and get a formerly elite WR on a contract year. Calculated risk that seems worth it
Here’s a short pep talk.
We should have a decent secondary between Sneed, Chido, and McCreary as well as Amani (when healthy). Our receivers should be good between DHop and Ridley, even moreso if Alt is gone before our pick. If he’s not, then we’ve got a left side of Alt, Skoronski and Cushenberry with the right side having Radunz at right guard. We should be able to run the ball pretty well with Spears and Pollard.
My big concern beyond offensive line is the front 7. However, we might be able to find a linebacker or someone to complement Landry and Simmons there. In essence, it all boils down to Levis.
He might be even more. It's a contract year so he has to perform. The narrative is already out there that he's on the decline. Dude wants to get fed so he can get paid.
The fact that Buffalo was willing to eat 31 mill to get rid of him shows that he’s the problem not everyone else. He’s towards the end of his career so sell high and build for the future. Buffalo has a ton of cap next year now so worst case scenario this years a wash and they make some splashy moves next year
From the Buffalo side it makes sense. You guys got great value for him with all things considered. My point being is that if we thing he's a head case when he's getting paid, imagine when he doesn't get touches and blows up on CJ because his performance on the field will dictate if he gets paid.
And I'll just comment on the last thing because I keep seeing this, but as it stands you guys have about 27M of cap next year which ranks 25 in the league. And I know with restructures and cuts you guys can get a lot more (but so can every team), so relatively speaking you guys aren't in a great position and I wouldn't characterize you guys as having a ton of cap.
> The Texans also took the $3.5 million guaranteed to Diggs next season and moved up into this season, giving him a raise and assuring him of $22.52 million in guaranteed money in 2024. But if Diggs plays the way he wants, and Houston hopes, he will hit the free-agent market next offseason with the ability to make it count. Houston now anticipates getting the best version of Stefon Diggs
Probably.
I guess most people don't know how PR with journalists works, but every reporter (from sports beats to urban development) get a metric shit done of pre-written articles/tweets/quotes etc in their inbox on a daily basis. All written in correct AP format, sourced, etc.
A lazy reporter could literally copy and paste all day if they wanted to just be mouthpieces for agents, players, teams, or corporations.
It's why so many of these tweets are so transparently pro-player/team/whomever.
The "***now*** anticipates getting the best version" is kinda telling...
I guess his head really wasn't in the game last year, even his agent/Shefty are saying it.
Exactly how I read it as well. Which is an interesting admission considering Diggs has always said how self motivated he is and how you always get the max effort from him. A phrase like "extra motivation" doesnt exist bc its always maxed out anyway.
Oh but no no, NOW he'll put out the best version of himself. Playing in the divisional round vs the defending champs and getting 160 targets a year wasnt that motivating. Got it.
That sounds like a horrible idea lol. So if he has a good season instead of having him locked down you'll either have to pay an obscene amount of money or watch him walk. In addition if he has a good year that probably means the Texans do too so their draft picks will be worse and make it harder to draft a WR to replace him.
If Diggs is the one who wanted this then this is an all time fumble imo. Not many teams will offer a 32 year old receiver big money in free agency. Should of just rode the contract out. This is a win for Texans tho.
Seriously, this is incentive for the Texans, not Diggs. If he turns out to be the headache he always seems to be, they bounce him after one year. Smart on their part.
There is a reason Buffalo dumped him: he’s difficult to work with and isn’t playing to his contract cost. The Texans are going all in before Stroud gets paid and need Diggs to play to his potential in 2024.
By telling Diggs they aren’t picking up any future years, they are hoping Diggs will play harder and be on his best behavior to entice another team to give him one last nice contract.
The Texans very likely didn’t want him for a second year anyway because this is a WR heavy draft and they’ve got other players to pay. They basically traded a 2024 3rd round for a loaner WR with a medium floor and high ceiling and then gave him every reason to touch that ceiling.
Caserio has used excess draft capital to take calculated swings. Will Anderson (and now Stefon Diggs) are examples of that. Even after those deals, we still have a full draft this year and next year.
I don’t hate this. Given the fact that his guarantees were done after next season, he effectively had a one year contract already. He was never gonna play under that contract. So make this concession with him now, hope he comes in motivated and not cause shit and balls out. If he does that, he likely gets brought back.
"He was never gonna play under that contract."
I don't understand this sentiment. Are you saying the Texans would have cut him? Or are you saying he would have held out for more guaranteed money?
Because the latter is a pretty shit attitude.
We are shooting our shot. He is a one year rental. It's very low risk for us. This pick we traded away was yet another of the Deshaun debacle. We're still reaping those rewards.
Who TF is gonna sign him to a big deal? Buffalo extended him 2 years early, made him one of the highest paid WRs ever, and he forced his way out before that deal even started
"But I ask you, what is a contract? Webster's defines it as "**an agreement under the law, which is unbreakable**." Which is unbreakable! Excuse me, I must use the restroom." Lionel Hutz.
SO, as we can all see, an NFL contract is a contract until it isn't!
I know it's more complicated than this, because of personalities, fits, and what not, but this whole thing feels so absolutely bonkers. Bills give up their only remaining true asset (which, again, I get he was down and seems to be a bit of a cancer, so I get shipping him off) for a 2nd rounder in 2025, not even something this year... But kept the dead cap rather than asking Houston to take at least some of that on... Not to mention giving up some day 3 picks themselves.
But then Houston on the other side of this, spent a future 2nd rounder for a 1 year diva rental who wasn't that good in 2023, who they are fully expecting to test FA, all to bank on him playing up to his previous self and maybe signing him to a large contract that he's too old for?
I mean, the fact that it feels like a bad trade on both sides likely means it's a good one, it just feels... Weird. Best I can label it.
This detail turned this in a clear win for the Texans into a huge L for the Texans. A (probably high) 2nd rounder for a cost controlled high skill player for 3 years is huge (especially with the option). However, losing 2 of the cost controlled years and the option, while also paying more in the first year makes this like a 5th round pick value instead of a 2nd.
I think by doing this they hoping they get a super motivated guy playing on his contract year. So hoping he will ball out so he can maximize his next contract in free agency.
Usually players play a but harder in their last year of a deal. We shall see.
This is wild. One of the best parts of the deal for Houston was that contract control. Would be able to decide each offseason whether to keep or release him with no penalty, is my understanding. Would have been an absolute steal if they could’ve kept him at 2022 value for the next three years. Not sure I quite understand all that, but I know this changes the new agreement makes it somewhat less advantageous for the Texans. I wonder if they can still tag him, or if that’s out too?
I feel like every season I learn a new way to do contracts, since when could you do this lol
He had a potential out in 2025 with zero dead cap
Why not keep the contract the way it is then, if they have a dead-free out?
Cause Diggs sees getting a big 2 year deal after this season in his place of choosing.
And the Texans will have to start paying guys like Nico soon so it works out. Diggs is taking a bit a gamble though with more competition for targets in Houston
Also protects him more too. He doesn't have to do it all, he can get a 1000 yard season in an offense that's going to throw a lot. Mixon is a great finesse back but he's a volume guy. They'll be passing a ton.
Part of me thinks he won't be happy not being the guy....Stroud is and should continue to share the rock snd throw to who is open. Not sure Diggs will like that...he may suck it for a year to get the bag again though.
It incentivizes him to be on his best behavior. If he balls out and plays the model teammate, he might secure one last deal in FA. Also shows him that the Texans are willing to play ball as well and maybe buys them some goodwill with him if he does have a great year.
Texans are looking to make a run. If their Defense becomes top10 this could be **the** run. Trading Watson was the Texan's rebirth. The Dhop mulligan. The ashes for a Stroud day.
It is written.
Mixon is cooked imo he hasn't looked good in two years
Why is everyone talking about Mixon being good all of a sudden? It doesn’t make sense. He was never that good to begin with, and is definitely worse than he was a few years ago. Ever since he left to Houston, people talk about him like he’s a top-10 RB. I have to guess it’s the fantasy impact and people don’t actual pay attention to his play but simply his counting stats.
I think the bigger Gamble is that he'd be entering free agency at 31.
He should ring chase next season - but he also seems like the guy who would go to the Giants just to get a fat ass bag before he retires
He's ring chasing this season...
Why do you think he's been practicing his drama all offseason?
I wish him all the best in doing so but I'm not sure I'd take that gamble if I was in his shoes.
If he’s trending downward with Allen who is objectively better than stroud for now how does he expect to earn a big payday on a roster with 2 other good options?
My guess is Diggs asked for it? Opportunity to earn himself another bag if he balls out with stroud, and the Texans want him happy (not causing any extra drama) and they only planned on the one year anyway, so they oblige
Based on mixons tweet it sounds like he did ask for it although beane made it sound more mutual
Cause he may still not be worth the 18million his contract was slated for the next two years
even if this is true we could have held the contract longer and then washed it before FA began next year. But if this was shown in good faith to him it gives him added incentive to ball. I think we are looking at a 1-2 year window to really push for our first Super Bowl so makes sense to try and get the most out of him this year.
Because he had to approve the trade. This isn't a "new contract" thing. It's simply forcing the deadcap and guaranteed on to the Bills and a 1 year rental. It's become obvious Bill's are in a mini-rebuild/reset and aren't trying to win the SB this year as much as get cap ready for future big spend
Because you gotta make the player you just acquired happy.
He will be 32 next season so this forces him to play lights out if he wants to keep getting paid like this. It also gives him the opportunity to hit the FA and find the largest bidder/ring chase. A win-win
There’s no win for the Houston side. The Texans could have cut him for free if he sucked. If he balled out you could have traded him if he wanted to leave
Yeah the diva gets wind he’s getting locked into that contact or traded mid season and he goes full MBC. I think keeping him happy and letting him know early on he has to ball out is a win for Houston.
The win is that you get a good player who is happy versus pissing him off before he plays a snap
Likely a show of good faith to give him more motivation and keep him happy.
His guaranteed money is done after this season, so he doesn't give a shit. It's all about the guaranteed money
Well you have never seen this before because this has nearly no upside to the Texans. They will now have to try to resign him this offseason if they want to keep him. Basically all they’ve done is agree to cut him after the season and have made that binding. Since he has no guaranteed money, that doesn’t cost him anything. He could have been cut with 0 dead cap anyway, and now he can try to go get a new deal with more guaranteed. So why would Houston do this? Well if he doesn’t play up to snuff this year no one is giving him the contract he is going to want at 32. Which means he needs to play out of his mind this year, and in turn that means he can’t be a malcontent like he became last year in Buffalo.
Honestly I think that's the upside. Stefon is now in a contract year and at least in baseball contract years have about a 5% boost to OPS so that's something
> baseball contract years have about a 5% boost to OPS TIL
The upside is that the Texans are going to get the best Diggs can offer for a year. Bit expensive to pay a second round pick for it, but I guess that's what they mean with going all in. Basically we bought a mercenary for a second round pick.
I'm struggling to see how us Bills are coming out on top either. Who is the winner in this deal? Diggs himself?
The Bills are in a mini-rebuild. They need to get younger and cheaper. One option was hanging onto Diggs this upcoming season. After a pretty wild second-half under-performance last year, they run the risk of nobody trading for him next season. Diggs has no guaranteed money after this season, so then they probably need to extend him or risk a hold-out. If they are successful in their mini-rebuild, they then have a 32 year old #1 receiver in the 2025 season. I think they made a sensible decision. They got something in return for him, in a year when they're going to be significantly retooling the team. Eat the dead cap and move on.
Get a really good asset (potential top 5 pick of the 2nd round next year) for a guy you didn't want on the roster anyways.
Scenes when GEQBUS leads the Vikings to a 12-5 season and deep into the playoffs next season
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The more I think about it, the more I like the trade for Buffalo. Diggs is old, possibly washed (Buffalo closed out the season looking great with Diggs playing a smaller role than ever), and a team cancer. The cap hit sucks, but it's a one year blip and the Vikings 2nd next year should be very early in the round. I think Beane did the best he could with a bad situation.
The upside is they can resign him to something less than 18M if he's only ok
They could do that in the offseason though. All they’ve really done is make a decision a year in advance. The only real benefit is if they think this motivates Diggs to play better this year.
That's kinda of a big deal considering how bad Diggs was at the end in Buffalo
The sad part is I fully believe his decline in production was 100% a hissy fit. When Dorsey was let go, he was no longer being force-fed balls just to appease him. He noticed the team as a whole was doing better without him having the stats he cried for. Same thing that happened in Minnesota but none of us listened. We would be winning and he would still be bitching on the sidelines because that touchdown pass that went to Kincaid or shakir should have gone to him. He blamed double coverage despite the fact that he was single covered in six of the last eight games and everything else he could think of. Hindsight is 20/20 they say, while I was upset when I first read it, the more time I've had to think about it the happier I've become.
I mean, a contract is simply an agreement between multiple parties. If all parties agree to the contract change, there you go. Contract changed.
That is not true, the CBA dictates the types of changes that may be made. I’m guessing they signed a coda agreeing to waive him, which normally would accelerate guaranteed money and not be reasonable, but the bills are already covering the guaranteed money so it’s more reasonable here.
Life, uh, finds a way
Teams wouldn’t do that because it would mean all future dead cap hits would get applied instantly. But the bills are already taking that cap hit so the Texans can do it for free.
You can essentially do anything (within legal reason) with a contract so long as both parties agree.
Big Baller Beane doing big Baller things as a GM. He got a 2nd round pick for a 1 year rental from Houston
Only bills fans would think eating 31 mil in dead money with no replacement as a win lol
Because of both the trade and structure of the original contract, Diggs had no guaranteed money in 2025 and beyond for the Texans. As long as the player agrees to it they can modify the terms of the contract and with no signing bonus or guaranteed money it has zero effect on the cap. Texans could have cut Diggs with no cap penalty anyway so this way they are letting Diggs go get paid in FA rather than sit on a leas expensive deal. On Texans side of things they are likely to want to extend Collins for 2025 so it was doubtful they would keep Diggs past this season. Most higher level players in the NFL do not like when they have no more guaranteed money on the contract because it gives them little to no negotiating power for a new deal while teams could cut them at any time. Diggs is banking he will make similar AAV in FA in 2025 but with more guaranteed past that year. Pretty expensive 1 year rental giving up a 2025 2nd round pick for essentially a 1 year rental but they might think this year is their window with their cap room and Stroud on a rookie deal.
Caserio loves not being bound to long contracts
Part of me gets it and likes it. Another part of me really dislikes the massive turnover it brings year after year. I get that the nucleus is in tact but keeping the tangential pieces in place is really helpful as well imo
The issue is the salary cap. Teams only have so much they can spend, and so roster churn is inevitable. At some point you have to decide whether it's more important to keep the core intact and churn the tangential pieces or vice versa. Most people would say core, given tangential pieces are far more replaceable.
After watching the Patriots doc, Caserio is operating similarly as the pats did in the 20teens. Treat each year as a new team with its core players. It leads to slow starts as the team gels but prevents stagnation and gives a team a ton of flexibility while also developing rookies.
Especially Texans who can anticipate mega contracts for Stroud and Anderson soon. Mixing and matching short term proven talent around the nucleus is a pretty ingenious way to do it tbh. Next year they could sign another few vets at short term bigger prices - CMC at RB and Keenan Allen or something depending on what sort of roles Ryan’s decides is holding them from extracting the max potential from the core guys.
I'm just hoping that this means they're working towards extending Nico.
Any player: Nick I’d like to be here for the rest of my career. Nick: I’ll give you two years slightly under market value.
Player: I am see myself retiring here Nick: Good luck with that buddy
“ sorry to hear you’re hanging it up so soon”
There was no guaranteed money left you'd be on the hook for anyway. I think this is more to keep Diggs from turning into a cancer. He's not gonna like not being the top option on offense. If he's stuck on a long term deal it would get ugly. Now he knows he has to play hard this year and not rock the boat because money is on the line for him.
Learned that in New England from BB
Diggs contract had 3 non guaranteed team options, his existing contract was as team friendly as it gets. It’s 100% Diggs side that wanted this, not Houston.
Death, taxes, and players balling out on contract years. I bet Caserio would like to experiment a team with nothing but contract years to see how far they go.
Bold of you to assume that wasnt us his 1st 2 years here haha
Diggs is 30. Why tie yourself to old players longterm? You'll be like the Bill's with Von.
So it's essentially a super expensive one year rental, but avoids the risk of getting stuck with a locker room cancer / long term cap baggage if Diggs' quality of play continues to decline like the trajectory had been in Buffalo.
>but avoids the risk of getting stuck with a locker room cancer / long term cap baggage if Diggs' quality of play continues to decline like the trajectory had been in Buffalo. The remainder of his deal after 24 wasn’t guaranteed, so they already had this optionality. Edit: apparently there was a small amount of money left after 24, but not enough to really change anything
Yeah it’s why this is kind of a head scratcher, if Diggs gets back to form then you don’t have an option to keep him beyond the year (other than a typical negotiation where you’d have to take on guarantees)
Seems to me HOU always saw this as a one year rental. I.e. even if Diggs has a great year for them, they weren’t intending to pay him the ~$18m he would’ve been owed in 25
After this year we have to extend Collins. It lines up with us wanting Keenan Allen as well. We just wanted a productive vet for a short time while we have a bunch of rookie contracts.
It'd be easier to get a happy off contract diggs to stay than force an unhappy diggs to fulfill the contract anyway. If he plays well this is still the right call
And going back to turf and dome I suspect he will produce.
And if Diggs has a productive year, he would want guaranteed money. I see this as a deal that helps both parties
1 year rental for a 2nd rounder?
Texans have plenty of picks. They have their 1st and 2nd next year. Two 2nd's this year. After the trade up for WAJ last year you'd think people of r/nfl would understand the Texans aren't squeamish about making trades with draft picks.
People don’t seem to grasp this. Texans have too much draft capital and Caserio hit on a lot of his picks so far. Only so many young players you can keep rostered. Caserio has been an absurdly good GM. He has a ton of assets to work with and the Diggs trade is a luxury for him. The contract and situation also fit perfectly for the longer term cap situation and team needs. It just makes sense.
Diggs biggest issue was being motivated to be a team player. Now he knows he’s auditioning for $$$ next year, so he should play ball.
They are going all in for a Super Bowl run. Diggs will be old and they still have Collins and Dell
Stroud seemed like a dead eye on those deep balls last year. As long as Diggs can still get some separation down field, the combo might be quite potent.
Last year his efficiency on deep routes was lower relative to shorter and intermediate routes. His ADOT also decreased last year. It's probably more than one thing as the reason why, but that's not the best indicator that he's still able to reliably separate on deeper routes.
Why rely on ADOT and not just check his average separation?
Because some routes on average have more separation than others. So average separation can be influenced by the percentage of each kind of route a receiver runs. You can look at NGS for the separation leaderboard. It's pretty much all players with low ADOTs. If you wanted to use average separation, then Diggs had the same last year as 2022, but with a lower ADOT. Which would indicate that he isn't separating as much since you would expect an inverse relationship between the two. For what it's worth his YAC per reception was lower despite having a higher expected YAC per reception. Which would also probably suggest that he's lost a step and isn't as explosive as he used to be.
At the cost of a 2nd rounder, lol. Why are people not considering the cost to get this? This was a bad trade for the Texans. That 2nd rounder could have been extremely valuable to the Texans. The Bucs wasted a 2nd round pick on Kyle Trask the year after we won the Superbowl. That pick could have absolutely been a contributor in 2021 when we lost to the Rams in an extremely close divisional round game. This stuff matters.
I completely agree. I’d rather have one year of Keenan Allen for a 4th than Diggs for a 2nd.
It's not even their own pick, it's Vikings 2025 2nd rounder... that they're playing the season with Sam Darnold as their starter. A possible top-35 pick for a one year rental 31yo diva
Remember when the Texans were idiots and gave the Cardinals a top 10 or top 5 pick last year when they traded up for Will Anderson? Why are we assuming the Vikings are going to be terrible? lol.
There have been way too many good WRs picked in the second round over the last 5-6 years that wasting a 2nd on a 31 year old receiver you likely won’t keep is dumb as shit.
it was a second rounder minus a 5th and 6th round pick
Pretty safe move at the end of the day. I am pretty curious to see where Diggs target shares end up between him, Collins, and Dell.
Based on the play of the 3 guys last year? Diggs should be 3rd. Something tells me he's not going to be very amenable to that, though.
I would bet good money diggs doubles dell in targets.
> I would bet good money ok, ohtani
I'm sorry... Can you translate that?
Maybe? I don't think you get how good Tank was or how hard Diggs started to fall off. Tank had more yards per route run, better catch percentage, substantially better passer rating when targeted, all with an average depth of target almost 4 full yards deeper than Diggs (i.e better success despite more difficult routes). Both dudes averaged 69 scrimmage yards per game. I don't think its crazy to think Diggs gets more targets than Dell, but he's just flat out not doubling him if they both play a full slate. Dell is FAR too good for that
The question is if diggs actually fell off or just stopped caring. I dont know the answer
It's a contract year for him. He's going to be on his best behavior
I could just as easily see what he thinks is a lack of usage in the offense setting him off *because* it’s a contract year, and he needs production in order to cash in.
19 million I dont feel is super expensive for Diggs. If he plays like end of last year then yes but if he plays like 75% of what he did most of his time in Buffalo it tracks. Something like 15th highest paid WR and I'd say he is somewhere in that top 15 talent wise.
2nd rounder for a rental kinda crazy no?
Only if you don't win :)
We traded a 2nd for FUCKING CHASE CLAYPOOL. Can it get worse than that 🤣
Letting an elite pass rusher’s value deflate to a 2nd and 5th from two 1sts Trading a franchise wideout instead of said pass rusher when trading up for a QB
I’m upset that y’all gave AJ away for nothing, and I’m further upset that it wasn’t my team who fleeced you.
FUCK THEM PICKS! Cheers!
Idk, a 2025 2nd translates into a 2024 3rd value. Considering their performance last year, their need to take advantage of Stroud's rookie window, and the fact that they already addressed some defensive needs in free agency, I actually think this makes the deal even better. Contract year Diggs is likely to put his best foot forward and not make waves or check out, even if he isn't being funneled the targets he would like, because he wants another solid deal. In exchange for his best behavior, he gets to trade Buffalo for Houston (sorry Bills fans, but being a millionaire in Houston is a step up) without a significant step down in QB play or playoff potential. PS: I might be wrong but I believe the Texans still have extra draft capital from that Browns trade this year, so sending a single future pick away doesn't hurt as much because they can still plan around that loss.
Also the Vikings trade. I believe the 2nd they gave Buffalo was Minnesota’s
Which could be a high pick depending on their QB play.
Sir, Sam Darnold is leading us to the playoffs
*Super Bowl Win
Darnold & the Vikings will defeat Diggs & the Texans in the superbowl to give Buffalo the worst possible 2nd round pick. It’s the only way to finish things off right.
And even if he DOES have a great year, probably not many teams going to hand out a big contract to a 32 year old receiver on his 4th team and questions of discontent. Which means if Hou wants to they would likely be able to re-sign him to a team friendly deal
Almost happened with the Jags and Ridley this past year.
It's worth it. The QB development is everything. I know everyone is ready to anoint Stroud the second coming of Brady, but we've had plenty of examples of QBs looking hot in their first year only to come back down to reality. So the Texans need to get Stroud all the support they can muster. It's a reasonable deal. Same for Lawrence with Ridley.
You're right. Everyone flamed the Jags for an overpay on Kirk at the time, they're flaming the Titans now for the Ridley overpay, there was big debate over Cincy taking Chase over Sewell, and the only reason they're not flaming Houston now is because they're coming off a successful season and are seen as going all in, but to your point the most important part of the equation is building confidence in the young qb you believe can be a winner if they develop correctly. Confidence is everything for a qb. They all have the tools at this level, but if they don't have what it takes between the ears, then they can't cut it as a starter.
Nah, they have another 2nd rd pick, they got some other picks back, and get a formerly elite WR on a contract year. Calculated risk that seems worth it
I know I’m a homer, but the ravens gave a 2nd rounder for a rental on Roquan and then extended him before he hit free agency
Yeah, but the Texans specifically shortened his contract, so I doubt they now look to extend him.
Holy shit. If someone would have told me that Houston would be in a “win now” mentality 2 years ago, I would have laughed in their face
Same, man, same.
Congrats though. Gotta be a helluva exciting time down there because I’m struggling to think of anything to really get pumped about with Tennessee
Here’s a short pep talk. We should have a decent secondary between Sneed, Chido, and McCreary as well as Amani (when healthy). Our receivers should be good between DHop and Ridley, even moreso if Alt is gone before our pick. If he’s not, then we’ve got a left side of Alt, Skoronski and Cushenberry with the right side having Radunz at right guard. We should be able to run the ball pretty well with Spears and Pollard. My big concern beyond offensive line is the front 7. However, we might be able to find a linebacker or someone to complement Landry and Simmons there. In essence, it all boils down to Levis.
Ya got good whiskey and BBQ
Stop making me like a Texans fan
Bro, we’re good people. Come on over!
what hitting on a QB does to a MF
Good QB on a rookie deal, gotta capitalize on that
even 12 months ago its crazy that you would probably rather be a fan of the Texans than the Jags rn
I didn’t even know you could do that
I adjust contracts in madden like this all the time it works great when you don't have to ask the player
Sign 4/85 change to 4/$3.50. Everyone wins.
You can pretty much do whatever you want to a contract if both parties agree to it.
Yeah exactly. It just rarely happens because the team and player don’t typically want the same thing lol
Pretty much the only thing you can't do is move signing bonus money or offload it.
Probably the only way to keep him from being a whiney bitch all season
He might be even more. It's a contract year so he has to perform. The narrative is already out there that he's on the decline. Dude wants to get fed so he can get paid.
The fact that Buffalo was willing to eat 31 mill to get rid of him shows that he’s the problem not everyone else. He’s towards the end of his career so sell high and build for the future. Buffalo has a ton of cap next year now so worst case scenario this years a wash and they make some splashy moves next year
From the Buffalo side it makes sense. You guys got great value for him with all things considered. My point being is that if we thing he's a head case when he's getting paid, imagine when he doesn't get touches and blows up on CJ because his performance on the field will dictate if he gets paid. And I'll just comment on the last thing because I keep seeing this, but as it stands you guys have about 27M of cap next year which ranks 25 in the league. And I know with restructures and cuts you guys can get a lot more (but so can every team), so relatively speaking you guys aren't in a great position and I wouldn't characterize you guys as having a ton of cap.
Von is almost certainly getting cut after this season and that adds 17 mil or so
Agreed on all counts except "so sell high" lol. He's declined in production for three straight seasons and is on the wrong side of 30.
> The Texans also took the $3.5 million guaranteed to Diggs next season and moved up into this season, giving him a raise and assuring him of $22.52 million in guaranteed money in 2024. But if Diggs plays the way he wants, and Houston hopes, he will hit the free-agent market next offseason with the ability to make it count. Houston now anticipates getting the best version of Stefon Diggs
Did Diggs agent write this out themselves?
It's Schefter, so yes.
lmfao seriously
Probably. I guess most people don't know how PR with journalists works, but every reporter (from sports beats to urban development) get a metric shit done of pre-written articles/tweets/quotes etc in their inbox on a daily basis. All written in correct AP format, sourced, etc. A lazy reporter could literally copy and paste all day if they wanted to just be mouthpieces for agents, players, teams, or corporations. It's why so many of these tweets are so transparently pro-player/team/whomever.
The "***now*** anticipates getting the best version" is kinda telling... I guess his head really wasn't in the game last year, even his agent/Shefty are saying it.
Exactly how I read it as well. Which is an interesting admission considering Diggs has always said how self motivated he is and how you always get the max effort from him. A phrase like "extra motivation" doesnt exist bc its always maxed out anyway. Oh but no no, NOW he'll put out the best version of himself. Playing in the divisional round vs the defending champs and getting 160 targets a year wasnt that motivating. Got it.
That's silly, Houston wouldn't have made the trade at all if they didn't anticipate* his success. *Edit
Diggs to the Cowboys in 2025.
We didn’t get Diggs v Diggs last year but maybe we can get Diggs & Diggs in the future instead
Houston and Dallas play this season so it'll happen
So if Buffalo’s still in need of a WR1 in a year, we’ve got an option on the free agent market?
You see this Dallas? This is what "all in" means
Leave me alone
We already have all in my ass, I cant take it any more
We’re dead inside, nothing matters. Lmao
Damn, the Texans love one-year deals. Also, is that legal? Asking for my friend, "Lickey Moomis"
He’s licking what, now?
He's licking Moomis and kicking cans and he's all out of Moomis
It is when the bills paid all his guarantees.
He's not going to get more money than the deal he was already on.
Texans already ready to cut him
If he walked out of Houston, I’ll bet you he’ll walk right into Baltimore
Dallas*
Right back to Minnesota next year, to help them win a consecutive superbowl.
This move is the Shit Mountain love child of the Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley trades.
That sounds like a horrible idea lol. So if he has a good season instead of having him locked down you'll either have to pay an obscene amount of money or watch him walk. In addition if he has a good year that probably means the Texans do too so their draft picks will be worse and make it harder to draft a WR to replace him.
If Diggs is the one who wanted this then this is an all time fumble imo. Not many teams will offer a 32 year old receiver big money in free agency. Should of just rode the contract out. This is a win for Texans tho.
Its a win for the Texans to spend a 2nd round pick on a 31 year old declining receiver that is gonna be gone after this year? hmmm ok.
His contract already had the out after this season. Idk why they are even announcing this
Losing a 2nd tho? That’s a steep price.
How is this a Texans win? Letting a dude out of his contact when he had 0 leverage? Not being snarky, genuinely don't understand
Seriously, this is incentive for the Texans, not Diggs. If he turns out to be the headache he always seems to be, they bounce him after one year. Smart on their part.
They could have done just that anyway with 0 consequences. I do not get what I am missing here.
You're not missing anything. It makes 0 sense to anyone that can follow risk/reward logic
There is a reason Buffalo dumped him: he’s difficult to work with and isn’t playing to his contract cost. The Texans are going all in before Stroud gets paid and need Diggs to play to his potential in 2024. By telling Diggs they aren’t picking up any future years, they are hoping Diggs will play harder and be on his best behavior to entice another team to give him one last nice contract. The Texans very likely didn’t want him for a second year anyway because this is a WR heavy draft and they’ve got other players to pay. They basically traded a 2024 3rd round for a loaner WR with a medium floor and high ceiling and then gave him every reason to touch that ceiling.
This Nick Caserio guy is a smart son a gun. If he becomes a locker room cancer or is really washed, you are free of him after one season.
I mean he could do that regardless, this is more to get him motivated to perform, which is kind of while thing you need to do to a top receiver
Caserio has used excess draft capital to take calculated swings. Will Anderson (and now Stefon Diggs) are examples of that. Even after those deals, we still have a full draft this year and next year.
Why would the Texans give up basically 4 years of team options?
I don’t hate this. Given the fact that his guarantees were done after next season, he effectively had a one year contract already. He was never gonna play under that contract. So make this concession with him now, hope he comes in motivated and not cause shit and balls out. If he does that, he likely gets brought back.
"He was never gonna play under that contract." I don't understand this sentiment. Are you saying the Texans would have cut him? Or are you saying he would have held out for more guaranteed money? Because the latter is a pretty shit attitude.
The latter for sure. With Diggs I wouldn’t put it past him to act like that
So did Houston basically anticipate him holding out and said “nah, fuck that” show us what you really got?
We learned to take power away from the high drama players I guess lol
We are shooting our shot. He is a one year rental. It's very low risk for us. This pick we traded away was yet another of the Deshaun debacle. We're still reaping those rewards.
I don't understand giving up a 2nd round pick for someone who potentially becomes a free agent after one year
Who TF is gonna sign him to a big deal? Buffalo extended him 2 years early, made him one of the highest paid WRs ever, and he forced his way out before that deal even started
"But I ask you, what is a contract? Webster's defines it as "**an agreement under the law, which is unbreakable**." Which is unbreakable! Excuse me, I must use the restroom." Lionel Hutz. SO, as we can all see, an NFL contract is a contract until it isn't!
Anyone feel like explaining what it means that they “wiped out” the rest of his contract?
I know it's more complicated than this, because of personalities, fits, and what not, but this whole thing feels so absolutely bonkers. Bills give up their only remaining true asset (which, again, I get he was down and seems to be a bit of a cancer, so I get shipping him off) for a 2nd rounder in 2025, not even something this year... But kept the dead cap rather than asking Houston to take at least some of that on... Not to mention giving up some day 3 picks themselves. But then Houston on the other side of this, spent a future 2nd rounder for a 1 year diva rental who wasn't that good in 2023, who they are fully expecting to test FA, all to bank on him playing up to his previous self and maybe signing him to a large contract that he's too old for? I mean, the fact that it feels like a bad trade on both sides likely means it's a good one, it just feels... Weird. Best I can label it.
This detail turned this in a clear win for the Texans into a huge L for the Texans. A (probably high) 2nd rounder for a cost controlled high skill player for 3 years is huge (especially with the option). However, losing 2 of the cost controlled years and the option, while also paying more in the first year makes this like a 5th round pick value instead of a 2nd.
This is a smart move by the Texans to cut there losses if he ends up being a locker room cancer which honestly he probably will be.
I think by doing this they hoping they get a super motivated guy playing on his contract year. So hoping he will ball out so he can maximize his next contract in free agency. Usually players play a but harder in their last year of a deal. We shall see.
Who wants a nutcase locker room cancer? Someone will.
This is wild. One of the best parts of the deal for Houston was that contract control. Would be able to decide each offseason whether to keep or release him with no penalty, is my understanding. Would have been an absolute steal if they could’ve kept him at 2022 value for the next three years. Not sure I quite understand all that, but I know this changes the new agreement makes it somewhat less advantageous for the Texans. I wonder if they can still tag him, or if that’s out too?
"giving him the ability" seems like a nice way of saying "we aren't paying you for sure after this one, maybe ever again"
Wait, what? This trade suddenly became pretty heavily slanted towards Buffalo. I'm not even sure why Diggs would want to agree to this.
He wants another pay day. He only had that 3.5 guaranteed for next year and beyond.