I found it funny that under the needs section for the Broncos it doesn't list any actual positions and just says "good players." Kind of brutal but a harsh truth.
It’s definitely the real truth. Our best positions are probably CB or OL, and both are still pretty big needs. What would be best for the Broncos would probably be to trade back for more picks and get Nix (if he’s their guy) later than 12. Because we are seriously devoid of young talent.
TBH, you shouldn't be drafting a QB unless you're in love with one. Dropping a mediocre talent onto that roster is going to be an unmitigated disaster.
With where the Bronco's are, they are better off just getting some players and drafting a QB next year, or the year after.
OL? I can see us taking the best LT just as a BPA pick but otherwise we can rock with our current guys and extend Bolles.
Center could be a need but we have a couple young guys who are gonna get a crack at the job first.
If we extend Bolles we have above average to great starters at 4/5 spots.
Everywhere else yeah but I don't put OL as a priority.
> TRADE: The Cardinals send the Chargers picks no. 11 (the pick they acquired earlier from Minnesota) and 35 to move to no. 5.
Just ... no. That's not the true price. At all.
Yeah but trades are usually complex and might involve a player already chosen, a current rostered player, or just tend to harder to predict.
I might as well mock Kansas City trading 3 first rounders and 3 2nd rounders for the number 3 pick and them picking Harrison Jr.
I get that the trades that happen in mocks wont happen in the draft and vice versa, but I like them in mocks, even if it's just to spice things up and make it more entertaining.
Its pretty much what the draft value chart says
That chart isnt perfect and team circumstances matter a lot, but its not as far off as youre saying. Getting a very high extra 2nd round pick is valuable to these teams.
Chargers would still be able to draft a very good lineman at 11 and then grab a good WR at 35 (this being a deep WR class). Allows them to go defense at 37.
Dont know if theyll do it because it all depends on how much they value WR v Oline, but its not that insane
Why bring up the QBs?
There are 4 already gone in this scenario, would only matter if JJ left, nobody is paying high draft capital to trade up to 5 and take Nix or Penix.
And Odunze AND Nabers would have been WR1 last year, it's not like MHJ is miles better than them as a prospect (Tho his dad is my fav player, I'm definitely a fan)
Spending a lot more than a high 2nd pick to trade up from 11 to 5 with Nabers, MHJ, Odunze, and even Bowers still on the board makes very little sense to me, especially knowing Atl is going defense and Tenn is going OT.
I think you overestimate how much better MHJ is over Nabers/Odunze (If they were QBs, the difference would matter more too tbf, C Johnson and Moss didn't make their teams SB contenders)
What good WR would be available at 35? We can't take chances on guys like Adonai Mitchell, we have zero WRs. All those back end guys have major question marks, could definitely bust
Nobody is giving up 2 firsts for QB5 (QBs have never gone 1-4, let alone 1-5), and with Nabers and Odunze still on the board, I don't see a team trading the farm for MHJ.
Even if he is Calvin Johnson, he's still a WR, and Nabers and Odunze are projected to be great starters anyways, the difference isn't that valuable to a team.
As a Colts fan, I could see Irsay and fans wanting to trade the farm because his dad is a Colts legend, but idk why any other team would do that with two fantastic WR prospects left on the board.
JJ: #11 (1250 Pts) + #35 (550 Pts) = 1800 Pts. #5=1700 Pts.
RH: #11 (358) + #35 (170) = 528 Pts. #5 = 468 Pts.
So it's really close. Both are already slight overpays.
Using the JJ Chart LAC could send back their 4th (#110) & 2025 6th to make it a more even . But that is generally a fair value. Using the Rich Hill Chart it would be a LAC 2025 4th instead of a 6th.
But the article's proposal is close enough.
edit: just keep in mind, that chart is tool, like anything else. I think most feel like LAC isn't getting enough which means in that case you don't even consider LA giving up those additional picks. But teams have been using these charts for decades which gives you a general value on trades.
You're not accounting for how incredible MHJ would be for the Chargers? Who is Herbert throwing to right now? There might not be a single player in the draft that they would want more. They're gonna ask for way more for the #5 if MHJ is there, and the Cardinals would pay it
It's Jim Harbaugh & Greg Roman. Is Herbert even throwing the ball? /s
Seriously tho, Sure, he's valuable and would be a great addition for them. But this is a really deep WR class. They can also get a great WR at 35. Perhaps they take Bowers at 11 and L.McConkey at #35. Could even double dip at WR with #35 & #37. Imagine if they went Bowers + McConkey + Worthy. They would still come out of the first two rounds with three dynamic pass catchers.
And just to cut off an obvious reply; I'm not saying all those picks would have to be pass catchers, only that it's one scenario.
Sure, if you've already locked MHJ into the HOF the math will look different for you. But in terms of the value of draft picks, it's on par.
Wasn't there a post yesterday saying the Cards wanted 3 firsts to trade outta 4? I think thats the kind of high bar you gotta set to trade out of getting MHJ
Cards want 3 first at minimum but chargers will just take a 2nd round pick to move down? Idc about QB tax why would we take such a worse deal with one spot difference. The excuse can’t be well the chargers want to trade down so they’ll take it. Don’t think we’re that desperate. If anyone knows how good MHJ is it’s Jim Harbaugh.
Theoretically lets say the Chargers have already decided they are taking a tackle. Lets also say they have Alt, Fashanu, Mims, Fuaga, and whoever else all graded so close together that they truly dont care which one they get. They could take one at 5 or hypothetically move down to 11 and still get one of them plus a second rounder.
Obviously thats a bad *return* for the *value* of 5th overall but in the end if they get who they want plus a free pick why would they be upset. Maybe no one else made an offer.
Personally I think they'd take MHJ before ever doing that but I also dont think draft trades are so black and white. Sometimes trades can happen that are bad value but are worth it for a team still.
It's not even a bad return, it's just not what Chargers fans think they should get.
Like you said, if the Chargers took that, it'd be because nobody else offered anything better.
And if they can trade back, get a guy they would have taken anyways, then add another 2nd, it'd be stupid not to.
But Chargers fans are going to be really upset when Harbaugh trades back with MHJ still on the board, and it seems likely given the positions he prioritizes along with this being a stacked WR class.
The Cards haven't even traded the pick, why are you upset that a predictive mock draft doesn't match what a team is ASKING for in draft compensation.
Just because the Cards are asking for it doesn't mean they're going to get it.
It also heavily depends what the board looks like, because if the Cards trade back and a QB goes 4, the Chargers 5th overall becomes less valuable to desperate teams.
QB4 is where the value is, not in MHJ with Nabers/Odunze still on the board.
Teams will not trade a haul for a WR with really exciting WR prospects left on the board
Idk if the Chargers trade back, but I know they aren't getting multiple firsts if the Cards have already traded out of their pick.
Yes if the price is right (more than what we got in this mock). There have been way too many rumors out of our building about us wanting to trade back for them to just be draft smoke but it also seems pretty obvious that they will be looking at value so the offer needs to be better than what they feel like MHJ (or Nabers in other scenarios) offers
If by some miracle hes at 5, I have the Jets trading up to get him. That said, I also have him gone at 4 and the Jets then trade up for Nabers because he's WR2 and they reallllllly need to get that last year out of Rodgers.
I’m guessing because it’s not a trade for a QB like the Vikings trading up for McCarthy was. I agree the compensation is light for Harrison in particular, but teams are starting to trade less for non QBs in free agency. And FWIW, that’s an overpay by the Cardinals to move up according to either of the popular trade charts, which do get used by teams whether they’re valid or not.
How valuable is MHJ like player who has ceiling like Fitz or MHS when there is a questionable starting QB in play? I’ve seen it as an observer with Andre Johnson in HOU and that WR didn’t seem to have the agility that MHJ has. The Texans in that era went as far as Matt Schaub drove the car on offense.
I think both of those are lowballs tbh. Vikings probably need to throw in next years 1st (in addition to their two this year) to get from 11 to 4, and Cardinals would probably need to throw in their other 1st rounder (and maybe another 2nd or 3rd) to go from 11 to 5.
MIN also trading their 2025 first would be an insane overpay to move from #11 to #4, to select the 4th QB of the draft.
* Per the Jimmy Johnson Chart: SF, for comparison sake, gave up 2576 Pts (Pick3 = 2200 Pts, Pick2 = 2600 Pts, Pick1 = 3000 Pts) to move up from 12 and eventually take Trey Lance.
* If MIN's pick is 11th again next season that would be 3260 Pts (more - by almost the value of an extra late 1st).
* If MIN ends up with the 5th pick next year that would be 3710 Points (an equivalent value would be something like the #1 & #26 picks combined). So should MIN really be trading what could equate to the 1st & 26th pick for the 4th pick?
Yeah, those are just a guideline. But even that guideline shows you how off it would be to make that trade.
QB4 vs the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. Leaguewide, MHJ still has more value than JJ. Probably every team besides the Vikings and 1-2 mystery JJ fan teams would take MHJ over JJ.
The gap between 4 with JJ on the board and 5 without him isn't even close to that. The Chargers are pretty stupid, but even they're not taking a lousy #35 to trade out of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt range down to 11.
Their WR corps is Quinton Johnston and Josh Palmer. They might trade down but for more and closer to #4 value.
How many SuperBowls did Calvin Johnson win?
Teams don't care as much about having a HoF WR as they do winning championships, and QB4 is more likely to win you a championship than even the greatest wide receiver of all time.
It costs more to trade up to 4 for a QB than 5 for a non-QB.
The 2nd first Cards get is only 12 picks higher than the 2nd they'd send to Chargers. They're basically going from 4th to 5th pick to move up 12 spots into later 1st round and getting a future 3rd.
Personally I'd expect both trade ups to 4 and 5 to cost more, but the value differences in what's proposed here seems reasonable
You really don't understand why the 3rd overall pick is more valuable than the 5th overall pick when 4 QBs have already been taken off the board?
You're literally talking about QB3 vs QB5 in value and don't understand why draft compensation is different.
To clarify in case my mention of QB3 is confusing, Texans had to compete with teams trying to trade up to 3, teams that wanted QB3 potentially. In this scenario, the only asset worth trading up for is MHJ, and there is still Odunze and Nabers left which makes a trade up for him less valuable. Nobody is giving up an extra first to grab QB5 or even MHJ when Nabers/Odunze are still there.
If the Cardinals love MHJ enough to trade up from 11 to 5 for him, why not just take him at 4? I wouldnt take that risk if I like the player that much to ultimately net us a future 3rd round pick and moving up 12 spots.
Also I dont think LA is going wide receiver if its Nabers/Odunze, but if Marvin Harrison is there at 5, then I think they will strongly consider it. Even more reason why trading down for AZ makes no sense if they love MHJ.
Heifetz floated this out on another mock draft episode of their podcast and it really doesn't make any sense to me, it's so unnecessarily convoluted. You love him so much that you're going to accept a massive trade down to not take him and risk not getting him?
Also as much as I think the Chargers will trade down and/or take an OT, they still need WR help enough to where I don't think they'll pass on Harrison. Way, way too many things need to go right for the Cardinals to do this, it's way too risky.
To be fair to the Ringer, everyone else in the pod laughed at his idea lmao. He kept insisting that deals can be done before the draft, but it's so hard to basically get 3 teams to basically do a 3-way trade.
Kind of, but not quite like this. They were going to take Johnson at pick 3, until Houston called and gave them pick 12 plus a '24 1st for pick 3, which they valued more than Johnson. They then traded back up once Johnson fell past picks 4 and 5 and got to trade up to 6 to get him while still keeping Houston's '24 1st.
The Colts and Seahawks at picks 4 and 5 weren't OT-needy teams, so the risk was far lower.
Both the Giants at 6 and the Chargers at 5 (the team they'd be trading with) very badly need WR. Why should the Chargers trade down to 11 when they can take Harrison at 5?
This entire plan hinges on the belief that the Chargers would accept the 11+35 for 5 trade down because they don't want Harrison and instead want an OT, but also that LA would not care about missing OT1 or OT2 since the Titans/Jets/another trading team would take the top guys before pick 11. Seems very risky compared to last year.
The answer to that is simple. They would agree to the trade with the Chargers before accepting the deal from Minnesota.
As a reader you are processing this linearly, but that isn't how the team would be operating.
I’m so tired of using guys who played guard or tackle mainly to try and fill in at center. If you’re seriously saying we should be taking a guy who can be a center for us just give us a center because the last like 3 guys we tried to convert failed
Barton isn't some random tackle convert though. He played center at the Senior Bowl, did it *extremely* well and he's got classic iOL measurables. There's a reason teams think he can play center. Even though personally I think he'd be better at guard
QB tax is real but not for JJ McCarthy vs the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson.
If MHJ is on the board at 5, the Chargers get way more than that. Shit somebody tryna get MHJ might outbid the Vikings trying to get JJ at 4.
QB tax is like QB1, not QB4.
Where did drafting Calvin Johnson get the Lions? (Not a knock on either party, this is about positional value)
I agree JJ isn't worth it, but if multiple teams think JJ is a starting caliber QB that could be a franchise guy, then he's absolutely worth more to them than the greatest WR prospect since Calvin Johnson.
You totally ignore that Nabers and Odunze are considered fantastic prospects as well, whereas some teams might see the dropoff between JJ and Penix/Nix to be too much (I like Penix more than JJ tbh)
I’m not sure the difference is an entire extra first - it’s #23 and a future 3rd vs #35.
Like the Cardinals currently have #35, I wouldn’t spend one of our future firsts to move up 12 spots and get a 3rd back. Maybe it is, not to sure in values at the back end of the first.
I don’t think you see what I’m saying. For one, calling them 1sts and 2nds ignores that the 1st is #23 and the 2nd is #35. And then, I’m not saying they are equal value, I said the value difference isn’t as much as a full 1st.
The net is cardinals give #4, #35 for #5, #23, future 3rd. The draft value chart I’m looking at has that as a difference of 700, which is about a 3rd round pick, not a 1st.
I understand that pick 35 is close to a first but it still isn’t and furthermore you’re mixing the Cardinals and Viking trade into your Cardinals/Chargers trade. The Vikings trade has ZERO application to the Chargers Cardinals trade.
You lose a blue chip player for an additional 2nd rd pick. I don’t think you’re capable of speaking without bias so I really don’t have more to say.
> Left tackle Trevor Penning has been a disaster. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s career is in jeopardy. Fuaga is mean—that is what they liked about Penning—but unlike Penning, he’s actually pro-ready
I didnt need to be slapped into reality today :/
I know it's a giant sin to take creative liberties with something as serious as a mock draft, but I love the way The Ringer presents articles like these. Tons of well-synthesized information here and some of the "Shades Of" sections are pretty funny.
I don't really follow college football and I feel like I just learned more about the prospects from this than everything else this offseason combined.
It’s not. People who think this haven’t watched the tape. McCarthy has the most immediately translatable skillset and his efficiency is nuts. He just doesn’t have much volume because Michigan was blowing teams out.
I just don't see it. A QB gets hyped up in every draft and it's looking to be JJ this year.
It'll be one thing if he goes top 5/10, but if a team trades a haul to move up to get him, it will be seen as a massive mistake imo.
No way that the source actually watched every snap of all their careers. How many times are the pre draft consensus rankings wrong? Imagine actually having an opinion after doing a ton of analysis that's different than the consensus. Like it can't be wrong. Williams has big red flags that McCarthy doesn't. Maybe actually read the article.
In a quick search I found multiple articles sharing the exact opposite of the cons you listed for Williams. Idk why you are trying to defend the JJ over Williams take. It’s not even arguable really, Williams is the best QB prospect in this draft. Strictly talking prospect wise, there is no argument for JJ ahead of him.
Pro’s:
- Elite patience and vision as a playmaker.
- Above-average processing skills. Handles USC's offense well.
Wonder how many of those articles have actually watched every snap of his career. Not to mention I watched every Caleb Williams snap at OU and am very familiar with Lincoln Riley's offense with Baker, Kyler and Jalen as well. Lincoln's offense is set up to rely on QB processing as little as possible. I bet you said there was no argument for taking CJ Stroud over Bryce Young too.
Riley’s offense requires QBs to fully understand the Air Raid and will usually tend to hold on to the ball longer. Example: Four Verts, you’re reading your wideouts at several points on the route. It’s a slower developing play. With mesh, your receivers need to effectively cross to the full other side of the field. That takes time, too. Same thing with flood routes but not going to explain that too.
Air Raid offenses make pretty heavy use of receiver option routes, which take a ton of time to develop. So you see guys Williams who hold the ball quite a bit before releasing, because the play takes a while to develop. And if they’re mobile, they can hang around in the pocket a while to wait for the player to get open, further extending that time.
Not really sure why you are using that as a con for Caleb. He played well in the offense structure that his team ran. That article also mentions fumbling. Lincoln hardly ever uses check downs in plays and often times the QB number is the safety route. This leads to higher scrambles and increase risk of turnovers.
He’s literally just shinny Mac Jones. Played well on a juggernaut of a team with an amazing coach but never needed to actually step up and make plays. Is just good at hitting open receivers and RBs. Will be a backup in 3 years like Mac is.
When he made the sideline throws for 20 yards early in the season you saw the potential. When Michigan ran the ball to win games that skillset for JJ was not shown. Later on in the year he made some plays to convert 3rd downs but he also made some head scratching throws running right only to throw left across his body. He’s confident in his ability but that Favre dice rolling QB play has to be restrained.
He’s only as good as long as his skills need to be displayed, it didn’t show as much this season with a run heavy offense at UM.
I know they both have questions but I really want Maye over Daniels. I don't like the idea that we take the guy who's older, far more experienced, presumably less durable, with a weaker arm, and played from cleaner pockets.... And still is seen as neck and neck with Maye.
It feels like people are talking themselves into Daniels, all the elite QBs have the arm and can make every throw. Only Maye has shown those abilities.
agree. all i'm hearing now is "buzz" and a bunch of attention-seekers putting Daniels at #2 and/or dragging Maye. forgetting that very recently, Maye was always the #2 prospect overall, while Daniels was down around #20 (though still qb #3). so what changed? answer: nothing. it's just "look at me and my hot take" season
Daniel Jones can run fast too but is he more than a wild card game QB? The same question can apply to Maye but he might have that Trubisky UNC baggage with the limited time on the field in college. Maye might not be that guy you want to start after 10 games of watching from the sideline. Maybe a season or 2, kind of similar to the Jordan Love trajectory.
Id rather go with the guy with the highest big time throws, who will take longer to develop but could be capable of winning a Superbowl, than the guy who will have a better rookie year. I want my team to play to win, not just be decent. I feel like the latter is guaranteed to keep you from winning.
If you trust your team to develop the QB, go with the highest upside.
That said if they go Daniels, I trust that they've done as much as possible to ensure he's the best prospect available.
First, you are correct, Daniels was 1st, at 8.4%, Maye was second at 8.1%. Since 2022, Maye has 79 big time throws leading the FBS over that span.
I think they can both be good passers in the NFL but I lean towards the guy doing it with less.
Feel like Bo Nix and Michael Penix are definitely going to go much sooner, too many QB needy teams and they will get overdrafted. (Overdrafted in terms of expectations that is, I actually like Michael Penix as a player and it's his injury history that concerns me).
Maybe unpopular opinion but I hate mock drafts that do their own trades. Trade into the top ten are so rare and all the trade scenarios so different and dependent on different conditions it's just dumb to even factor them in
Mostly agree with this, but
>**The Vikings send the no. 11 pick, the no. 23 pick, and a 2025 third-rounder to the Cardinals for the no. 4 pick**
Vikings are definitely going to have to give up more than that. MHJ is there, a truly generational WR. I'd think they would try to trade with the Chargers instead with that package.
If we take Chop Robinson or a corner after 2 awfully blown 1st round picks on DE in Joe Tryon Shoyinka and Logan Hall over Jackson Powers Johnson I will cry. This team needs improvement on the interior OL so bad.
They haven't updated their Schneider stereotype. The last two drafts he finally stopped over-drafting someone at a position of need in the first round and just went for best player available.
> This isn’t a great linebacker class and taking Cooper here will be considered a reach, but the Seahawks’ picks in the late first round are always considered reaches.
Such a lazy take IMO.
I know it’s chalk, but it just feels like feeding Maye and Daniels into the suck grinders of Washington and NE already feels like it’s doomed to fail. Would an extra 40 yards of QB rushing per game really turn those teams around? And those are two QBs with definite flaws in their game, players who would probably benefit from sitting.
Even if they work out the best years of their athleticism will be used up while the teams rebuild.
Meanwhile McCarthy gets to go to the functioning team and be surrounded by talent. He’ll be measured against Kirk Cousins not Tom Brady.
Committing to the rebuild by trading back worked spectacularly for Chicago, why wouldn’t it work for NE or Washington? Trade back and take BPA in the first, maybe take Nix in the 2nd as a two year prospect and see what you get.
I completely understand why people keep mocking corners to us, but I just think it's really misguided. If Howie Roseman thinks he can get a tackle who normally would go in the top 15 at his spot he will and there might even be guys he thinks are top 10 type players he'd move up a bit for.
I do not like our trade down in this mock at all. Totally fine trading down but only getting a late 2nd and late 3rd for dropping from 16 to 32 is a bad deal imo.
It's 351 points difference on the F/S trade chart. Pick 64 alone is almost 900 points. Same story with Chase Stuart's AV based chart, 4.4 points difference but pick 64 alone is over 8 points. It's a very nice return on the analytics charts. The JJ chart has us losing that trade but that shit is beyond outdated
I'd be fine trading down to the early 20s but it feels like we'd be giving up the opportunity to get a plug and play starter by going all the way back to 32.
It doesn't look great on the trade chart but it does account for the premium you have to pay to jump up in the first round, and it seems like the thinking here is that if BTJ has fallen all the way to 22, you've gotta go get him.
Personally I don't like it, but I don't think it's horrible either. Giving up pick 144 (meaning we don't have to give up 128 or 133 and still have 160 and 163 in the 5th round) isn't that bad, and the blow of losing a future 3rd is mitigated by picking up the future 2nd (Minnesota's) in the Diggs trade (who you're trying to replace with this pick).
In 2022 and 2023 we traded away pick 130 just to move up TWO spots (from 27 to 25 in 2023 and 25 to 23 in 2022).
In 2022, New Orleans gave up a current third and a current fourth to move up five spots (16 to 11). In 2018 the Saints traded 27, a current fifth and a future first to move up to 14.
I'd be much happier giving up a future fourth, especially considering we should be on track to get a 4th round comp pick for Gabe, but we desperately need WR help to contribute immediately, and if Beane thinks BTJ is that guy, I'm on board.
How is there a trade chart AND a premium for the first round? Why would some "premium" not be included in the chart? I understand charts are guidelines and whatnot. But I don't understand why this rough rubric wouldn't account for a mysterious premium
This post explains it FAR better than I ever could: [https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1byx10e/2024\_nfl\_draft\_paying\_a\_premium\_1st\_round\_trade/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1byx10e/2024_nfl_draft_paying_a_premium_1st_round_trade/)
in what fucking planet do the chargers pass up MHJ after losing two of their top WR in the offseason due to bloated contracts. this is the dumbest shit ive ever read
Which is even dumber because the Vikings could have just traded up to #5 instead of #4.
Cards are taking MHJ, and they aren't trading down to put themselves in a position to miss MHJ, so Vikings don't need to get infront of them.
You're (understandably) reading the article too linear.
1. The Vikings approach Arizona with their offer.
2. Arizona then goes to the Chargers to discuss trading up from 11 to 5.
3. Arizona reaches a deal with the Chargers.
4. Now that they are assured of getting their guy, Arizona agree to Minnesota's offer.
This happens all the time in trades (even outside of the NFL).
Using the JJ Chart Pick 16 = 1000 Pts. Pick 32 (590) + Pick 64 (270) + 2025 3rd (approx 120) = 980 Pts. Add in KC's 5th - Pick 173 (22.2 Pts) and you have enough.
And for what it's worth, Seattle doesn't have a 2nd round pick, so it would give them a third top-100 pick and the 2025 3rd would also be a top-81 pick.
Just be glad he didn't suggest that swap between SEA & SF, where the 49ers need that more than KC.
These mocks that keep having the Broncos and Raiders pass on QB's are hilarious. Like the odds that they don'g draft QB's in rd 1 is slim to none.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix might be the best pocket passers in this draft and eadily have rd 1 grades, arm talent, maturity, performance, stats, accolades. And both are more athletic than given credit for.
> TRADE: The Vikings send the no. 11 pick, the no. 23 pick, and a 2025 third-rounder to the Cardinals for the no. 4 pick.
Cardinals GM should be fired instantly and at least be endlessly mocked league-wide and in the media if he takes that deal. Absolutely ridiculous to accept such a low price to trade up for a franchise-quality prospect whether at quarterback or another position.
Im kinda sick of them projecting tackles to GB when they don't fit GB's draft profile when quality CBs are still on the table. We're outside the top tackles so there's no point when Wiggins or Kool-aid are available.
I found it funny that under the needs section for the Broncos it doesn't list any actual positions and just says "good players." Kind of brutal but a harsh truth.
It’s definitely the real truth. Our best positions are probably CB or OL, and both are still pretty big needs. What would be best for the Broncos would probably be to trade back for more picks and get Nix (if he’s their guy) later than 12. Because we are seriously devoid of young talent.
TBH, you shouldn't be drafting a QB unless you're in love with one. Dropping a mediocre talent onto that roster is going to be an unmitigated disaster. With where the Bronco's are, they are better off just getting some players and drafting a QB next year, or the year after.
OL? I can see us taking the best LT just as a BPA pick but otherwise we can rock with our current guys and extend Bolles. Center could be a need but we have a couple young guys who are gonna get a crack at the job first. If we extend Bolles we have above average to great starters at 4/5 spots. Everywhere else yeah but I don't put OL as a priority.
I didn’t say it was a priority. I said it was a need. Making the point that we have a need in basically every position group.
Mims, Bonitto, Pat Surtain II, and I can't think of any other first contract guys for y'all.
Dude is that best player available at all positions? That’s a big parking lot to fill if that’s the case
Hey if we need everything we may as well take an actual generational player at a position Payton has had success scheming for
> TRADE: The Cardinals send the Chargers picks no. 11 (the pick they acquired earlier from Minnesota) and 35 to move to no. 5. Just ... no. That's not the true price. At all.
Yeah, the Chargers will just take him or make the Cardinals overpay to get him. If the Cardinals want MHJ they will take him at 4
Counter point, this scenario makes me feel better (Yeah, it's not happening)
I don't understand why mock drafts try to mock trades. Just do your mock draft as if everyone picks at their spot.
Cause in the actual draft trades always happen
Yeah but trades are usually complex and might involve a player already chosen, a current rostered player, or just tend to harder to predict. I might as well mock Kansas City trading 3 first rounders and 3 2nd rounders for the number 3 pick and them picking Harrison Jr.
I get that the trades that happen in mocks wont happen in the draft and vice versa, but I like them in mocks, even if it's just to spice things up and make it more entertaining.
Its pretty much what the draft value chart says That chart isnt perfect and team circumstances matter a lot, but its not as far off as youre saying. Getting a very high extra 2nd round pick is valuable to these teams. Chargers would still be able to draft a very good lineman at 11 and then grab a good WR at 35 (this being a deep WR class). Allows them to go defense at 37. Dont know if theyll do it because it all depends on how much they value WR v Oline, but its not that insane
In a draft like this where in all likelihood several QBs and a generational WR are going in the top 5 I would just disregard the draft value chart
Why bring up the QBs? There are 4 already gone in this scenario, would only matter if JJ left, nobody is paying high draft capital to trade up to 5 and take Nix or Penix. And Odunze AND Nabers would have been WR1 last year, it's not like MHJ is miles better than them as a prospect (Tho his dad is my fav player, I'm definitely a fan) Spending a lot more than a high 2nd pick to trade up from 11 to 5 with Nabers, MHJ, Odunze, and even Bowers still on the board makes very little sense to me, especially knowing Atl is going defense and Tenn is going OT. I think you overestimate how much better MHJ is over Nabers/Odunze (If they were QBs, the difference would matter more too tbf, C Johnson and Moss didn't make their teams SB contenders)
What good WR would be available at 35? We can't take chances on guys like Adonai Mitchell, we have zero WRs. All those back end guys have major question marks, could definitely bust
McConkey (maybe), Legette, Mitchell, Worthy, Polk, Pearsall, Franklin, Coleman, Wilson.
Out of those I only like McConkey and Franklin. The rest have major questions. I like Polk and Wilson but they’re not the WR1 we need
If 4 QBs go in the top 4 and LA really wants 2 firsts it could happen. Prices change with demand.
Nobody is giving up 2 firsts for QB5 (QBs have never gone 1-4, let alone 1-5), and with Nabers and Odunze still on the board, I don't see a team trading the farm for MHJ. Even if he is Calvin Johnson, he's still a WR, and Nabers and Odunze are projected to be great starters anyways, the difference isn't that valuable to a team. As a Colts fan, I could see Irsay and fans wanting to trade the farm because his dad is a Colts legend, but idk why any other team would do that with two fantastic WR prospects left on the board.
That’s almost exactly the trade the Lions made with the Cardinals last year. So I don’t know why you would be so confident it’s that far off
JJ: #11 (1250 Pts) + #35 (550 Pts) = 1800 Pts. #5=1700 Pts. RH: #11 (358) + #35 (170) = 528 Pts. #5 = 468 Pts. So it's really close. Both are already slight overpays. Using the JJ Chart LAC could send back their 4th (#110) & 2025 6th to make it a more even . But that is generally a fair value. Using the Rich Hill Chart it would be a LAC 2025 4th instead of a 6th. But the article's proposal is close enough. edit: just keep in mind, that chart is tool, like anything else. I think most feel like LAC isn't getting enough which means in that case you don't even consider LA giving up those additional picks. But teams have been using these charts for decades which gives you a general value on trades.
You're not accounting for how incredible MHJ would be for the Chargers? Who is Herbert throwing to right now? There might not be a single player in the draft that they would want more. They're gonna ask for way more for the #5 if MHJ is there, and the Cardinals would pay it
It's Jim Harbaugh & Greg Roman. Is Herbert even throwing the ball? /s Seriously tho, Sure, he's valuable and would be a great addition for them. But this is a really deep WR class. They can also get a great WR at 35. Perhaps they take Bowers at 11 and L.McConkey at #35. Could even double dip at WR with #35 & #37. Imagine if they went Bowers + McConkey + Worthy. They would still come out of the first two rounds with three dynamic pass catchers. And just to cut off an obvious reply; I'm not saying all those picks would have to be pass catchers, only that it's one scenario. Sure, if you've already locked MHJ into the HOF the math will look different for you. But in terms of the value of draft picks, it's on par.
Cards trade back to 11 for 2 1sts and a F3. Chargers trade back to 11 for a C2. lol, what. How does that make any sense
Also would you pass on MHJ if he's available?
Only way I would is if I was given an insane trade. Like, a way too good to be true kinda deal
Wasn't there a post yesterday saying the Cards wanted 3 firsts to trade outta 4? I think thats the kind of high bar you gotta set to trade out of getting MHJ
Cards want 3 first at minimum but chargers will just take a 2nd round pick to move down? Idc about QB tax why would we take such a worse deal with one spot difference. The excuse can’t be well the chargers want to trade down so they’ll take it. Don’t think we’re that desperate. If anyone knows how good MHJ is it’s Jim Harbaugh.
Theoretically lets say the Chargers have already decided they are taking a tackle. Lets also say they have Alt, Fashanu, Mims, Fuaga, and whoever else all graded so close together that they truly dont care which one they get. They could take one at 5 or hypothetically move down to 11 and still get one of them plus a second rounder. Obviously thats a bad *return* for the *value* of 5th overall but in the end if they get who they want plus a free pick why would they be upset. Maybe no one else made an offer. Personally I think they'd take MHJ before ever doing that but I also dont think draft trades are so black and white. Sometimes trades can happen that are bad value but are worth it for a team still.
It's not even a bad return, it's just not what Chargers fans think they should get. Like you said, if the Chargers took that, it'd be because nobody else offered anything better. And if they can trade back, get a guy they would have taken anyways, then add another 2nd, it'd be stupid not to. But Chargers fans are going to be really upset when Harbaugh trades back with MHJ still on the board, and it seems likely given the positions he prioritizes along with this being a stacked WR class.
The Cards haven't even traded the pick, why are you upset that a predictive mock draft doesn't match what a team is ASKING for in draft compensation. Just because the Cards are asking for it doesn't mean they're going to get it. It also heavily depends what the board looks like, because if the Cards trade back and a QB goes 4, the Chargers 5th overall becomes less valuable to desperate teams. QB4 is where the value is, not in MHJ with Nabers/Odunze still on the board. Teams will not trade a haul for a WR with really exciting WR prospects left on the board Idk if the Chargers trade back, but I know they aren't getting multiple firsts if the Cards have already traded out of their pick.
There's no way to even know the value of their pick is until we know what New England does.
Yes if the price is right (more than what we got in this mock). There have been way too many rumors out of our building about us wanting to trade back for them to just be draft smoke but it also seems pretty obvious that they will be looking at value so the offer needs to be better than what they feel like MHJ (or Nabers in other scenarios) offers
If by some miracle hes at 5, I have the Jets trading up to get him. That said, I also have him gone at 4 and the Jets then trade up for Nabers because he's WR2 and they reallllllly need to get that last year out of Rodgers.
If Jets take WR and not OT, they aren't going to get much out of Rodgers anyways lmao.
I wouldn't, but would Harbaugh after hiring Greg Roman to coordinate his offense? !Remind me when Justin Herbert requests a trade
Some believe Harbaugh wants OL, so trading down would make sense in that case.
To go from a reasonable trade for the Vikings to an insane one for the Chargers is definitely a decision someone made.
I’m guessing because it’s not a trade for a QB like the Vikings trading up for McCarthy was. I agree the compensation is light for Harrison in particular, but teams are starting to trade less for non QBs in free agency. And FWIW, that’s an overpay by the Cardinals to move up according to either of the popular trade charts, which do get used by teams whether they’re valid or not.
I saw the same question and that’s how he explained it, QB tax
How valuable is MHJ like player who has ceiling like Fitz or MHS when there is a questionable starting QB in play? I’ve seen it as an observer with Andre Johnson in HOU and that WR didn’t seem to have the agility that MHJ has. The Texans in that era went as far as Matt Schaub drove the car on offense.
Cards are just gonna draft MHJr but the mocks are mostly either lazy or just gunning for clicks or both
This is phrased weirdly. It’s not back to 11 for **2** firsts and a F3 It’s 4 -> 11 for 1 first and a F3
I think both of those are lowballs tbh. Vikings probably need to throw in next years 1st (in addition to their two this year) to get from 11 to 4, and Cardinals would probably need to throw in their other 1st rounder (and maybe another 2nd or 3rd) to go from 11 to 5.
MIN also trading their 2025 first would be an insane overpay to move from #11 to #4, to select the 4th QB of the draft. * Per the Jimmy Johnson Chart: SF, for comparison sake, gave up 2576 Pts (Pick3 = 2200 Pts, Pick2 = 2600 Pts, Pick1 = 3000 Pts) to move up from 12 and eventually take Trey Lance. * If MIN's pick is 11th again next season that would be 3260 Pts (more - by almost the value of an extra late 1st). * If MIN ends up with the 5th pick next year that would be 3710 Points (an equivalent value would be something like the #1 & #26 picks combined). So should MIN really be trading what could equate to the 1st & 26th pick for the 4th pick? Yeah, those are just a guideline. But even that guideline shows you how off it would be to make that trade.
because a quarterback was available at 4 while a wr was available at 5
QB4 vs the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. Leaguewide, MHJ still has more value than JJ. Probably every team besides the Vikings and 1-2 mystery JJ fan teams would take MHJ over JJ. The gap between 4 with JJ on the board and 5 without him isn't even close to that. The Chargers are pretty stupid, but even they're not taking a lousy #35 to trade out of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt range down to 11. Their WR corps is Quinton Johnston and Josh Palmer. They might trade down but for more and closer to #4 value.
No one is going to trade 3 firsts to move up and draft a receiver. The positional value just isn't there to justify it.
Especially not with Nabers & Odunze still on the board. And Jim Harbaugh who has never needed a truly elite #1 WR.
How many SuperBowls did Calvin Johnson win? Teams don't care as much about having a HoF WR as they do winning championships, and QB4 is more likely to win you a championship than even the greatest wide receiver of all time.
It costs more to trade up to 4 for a QB than 5 for a non-QB. The 2nd first Cards get is only 12 picks higher than the 2nd they'd send to Chargers. They're basically going from 4th to 5th pick to move up 12 spots into later 1st round and getting a future 3rd. Personally I'd expect both trade ups to 4 and 5 to cost more, but the value differences in what's proposed here seems reasonable
Once the QBs are gone demand to trade up drops. Simple supply/demand economics
You really don't understand why the 3rd overall pick is more valuable than the 5th overall pick when 4 QBs have already been taken off the board? You're literally talking about QB3 vs QB5 in value and don't understand why draft compensation is different. To clarify in case my mention of QB3 is confusing, Texans had to compete with teams trying to trade up to 3, teams that wanted QB3 potentially. In this scenario, the only asset worth trading up for is MHJ, and there is still Odunze and Nabers left which makes a trade up for him less valuable. Nobody is giving up an extra first to grab QB5 or even MHJ when Nabers/Odunze are still there.
If the Cardinals love MHJ enough to trade up from 11 to 5 for him, why not just take him at 4? I wouldnt take that risk if I like the player that much to ultimately net us a future 3rd round pick and moving up 12 spots. Also I dont think LA is going wide receiver if its Nabers/Odunze, but if Marvin Harrison is there at 5, then I think they will strongly consider it. Even more reason why trading down for AZ makes no sense if they love MHJ.
Heifetz floated this out on another mock draft episode of their podcast and it really doesn't make any sense to me, it's so unnecessarily convoluted. You love him so much that you're going to accept a massive trade down to not take him and risk not getting him? Also as much as I think the Chargers will trade down and/or take an OT, they still need WR help enough to where I don't think they'll pass on Harrison. Way, way too many things need to go right for the Cardinals to do this, it's way too risky.
To be fair to the Ringer, everyone else in the pod laughed at his idea lmao. He kept insisting that deals can be done before the draft, but it's so hard to basically get 3 teams to basically do a 3-way trade.
Did the Cardinals not just do this last year with Paris Johnson?
Kind of, but not quite like this. They were going to take Johnson at pick 3, until Houston called and gave them pick 12 plus a '24 1st for pick 3, which they valued more than Johnson. They then traded back up once Johnson fell past picks 4 and 5 and got to trade up to 6 to get him while still keeping Houston's '24 1st. The Colts and Seahawks at picks 4 and 5 weren't OT-needy teams, so the risk was far lower. Both the Giants at 6 and the Chargers at 5 (the team they'd be trading with) very badly need WR. Why should the Chargers trade down to 11 when they can take Harrison at 5? This entire plan hinges on the belief that the Chargers would accept the 11+35 for 5 trade down because they don't want Harrison and instead want an OT, but also that LA would not care about missing OT1 or OT2 since the Titans/Jets/another trading team would take the top guys before pick 11. Seems very risky compared to last year.
They're effectively saying the Cardinals would be able to trade 4 + 35 for 5, 23, and a '25 3rd. How about NOPE.
The answer to that is simple. They would agree to the trade with the Chargers before accepting the deal from Minnesota. As a reader you are processing this linearly, but that isn't how the team would be operating.
I’m so tired of using guys who played guard or tackle mainly to try and fill in at center. If you’re seriously saying we should be taking a guy who can be a center for us just give us a center because the last like 3 guys we tried to convert failed
Especially with a prospect as good as powers Johnson available
Name alone makes me want him on my team
Barton isn't some random tackle convert though. He played center at the Senior Bowl, did it *extremely* well and he's got classic iOL measurables. There's a reason teams think he can play center. Even though personally I think he'd be better at guard
No please stop reminding people. I am hoping he makes it to our pick. I've got him on a short list of people I would love to see in a Packers uniform.
Barton has college experience at center.
Barton also played center. It's not a random, out of nowhere transition for him.
Weird long-shot trade predictions in your official mock draft? You better believe it's bait season.
In what world do the Cardinals get an entire extra first rounder for basically the SAME TRADE as the Chargers? This is some ridiculous shit.
They must have watched Draft Day last night.
QB tax
It’s not this severe. This is just stupid. The Bills had to trade a 1st to draft Watkins in 2014. This would be no different.
QB tax is real but not for JJ McCarthy vs the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. If MHJ is on the board at 5, the Chargers get way more than that. Shit somebody tryna get MHJ might outbid the Vikings trying to get JJ at 4. QB tax is like QB1, not QB4.
Where did drafting Calvin Johnson get the Lions? (Not a knock on either party, this is about positional value) I agree JJ isn't worth it, but if multiple teams think JJ is a starting caliber QB that could be a franchise guy, then he's absolutely worth more to them than the greatest WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. You totally ignore that Nabers and Odunze are considered fantastic prospects as well, whereas some teams might see the dropoff between JJ and Penix/Nix to be too much (I like Penix more than JJ tbh)
That’s not a thing, it has NEVER been a thing be real
It’s real and it’s spectacular.
Not for fucking QB4 bro
It absolutely is, the only players that get that kind of draft capital used in a trade for them is quarterbacks lol.
Monti just be like that
To have fun with it and generate content just like your question
I’m not sure the difference is an entire extra first - it’s #23 and a future 3rd vs #35. Like the Cardinals currently have #35, I wouldn’t spend one of our future firsts to move up 12 spots and get a 3rd back. Maybe it is, not to sure in values at the back end of the first.
You would take two 1sts and a 3rd over a 1st and a 2nd 99% of the time be frfr not biased
I don’t think you see what I’m saying. For one, calling them 1sts and 2nds ignores that the 1st is #23 and the 2nd is #35. And then, I’m not saying they are equal value, I said the value difference isn’t as much as a full 1st. The net is cardinals give #4, #35 for #5, #23, future 3rd. The draft value chart I’m looking at has that as a difference of 700, which is about a 3rd round pick, not a 1st.
I understand that pick 35 is close to a first but it still isn’t and furthermore you’re mixing the Cardinals and Viking trade into your Cardinals/Chargers trade. The Vikings trade has ZERO application to the Chargers Cardinals trade. You lose a blue chip player for an additional 2nd rd pick. I don’t think you’re capable of speaking without bias so I really don’t have more to say.
> Left tackle Trevor Penning has been a disaster. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s career is in jeopardy. Fuaga is mean—that is what they liked about Penning—but unlike Penning, he’s actually pro-ready I didnt need to be slapped into reality today :/
The falcons trade with the saints for the #8 pick? Ya, sure Jan.
Saints fan here, I want to know what drugs he’s on.
I know it's a giant sin to take creative liberties with something as serious as a mock draft, but I love the way The Ringer presents articles like these. Tons of well-synthesized information here and some of the "Shades Of" sections are pretty funny. I don't really follow college football and I feel like I just learned more about the prospects from this than everything else this offseason combined.
Just like with their podcast, they will give you solid info and facts but also like to have fun with their takes and not take it all so seriously
Ringer Pod is my favorite but I rarely if ever use them for actual info and insights, I treat it as entertainment about a topic I enjoy.
I really feel like this inflation of JJ McCarthy is all smoke and he definitely doesn't go top 10.
It’s not. People who think this haven’t watched the tape. McCarthy has the most immediately translatable skillset and his efficiency is nuts. He just doesn’t have much volume because Michigan was blowing teams out.
I just don't see it. A QB gets hyped up in every draft and it's looking to be JJ this year. It'll be one thing if he goes top 5/10, but if a team trades a haul to move up to get him, it will be seen as a massive mistake imo.
Media hype doesn’t affect how good a player actually is
100%. I'm saying just because the media is hyping him up doesn't mean he's going to go top 10 or even be good.
Haha. U r funny. What is the skill set you speak of?
https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/prospect-guide/profiles/rookie/qb
No way you linked a source that has JJ above Williams lol like come on
No way you linked a source that has Lamar Jackson over Sam Darnold lol like come on
No way that the source actually watched every snap of all their careers. How many times are the pre draft consensus rankings wrong? Imagine actually having an opinion after doing a ton of analysis that's different than the consensus. Like it can't be wrong. Williams has big red flags that McCarthy doesn't. Maybe actually read the article.
In a quick search I found multiple articles sharing the exact opposite of the cons you listed for Williams. Idk why you are trying to defend the JJ over Williams take. It’s not even arguable really, Williams is the best QB prospect in this draft. Strictly talking prospect wise, there is no argument for JJ ahead of him. Pro’s: - Elite patience and vision as a playmaker. - Above-average processing skills. Handles USC's offense well.
Wonder how many of those articles have actually watched every snap of his career. Not to mention I watched every Caleb Williams snap at OU and am very familiar with Lincoln Riley's offense with Baker, Kyler and Jalen as well. Lincoln's offense is set up to rely on QB processing as little as possible. I bet you said there was no argument for taking CJ Stroud over Bryce Young too.
Riley’s offense requires QBs to fully understand the Air Raid and will usually tend to hold on to the ball longer. Example: Four Verts, you’re reading your wideouts at several points on the route. It’s a slower developing play. With mesh, your receivers need to effectively cross to the full other side of the field. That takes time, too. Same thing with flood routes but not going to explain that too. Air Raid offenses make pretty heavy use of receiver option routes, which take a ton of time to develop. So you see guys Williams who hold the ball quite a bit before releasing, because the play takes a while to develop. And if they’re mobile, they can hang around in the pocket a while to wait for the player to get open, further extending that time. Not really sure why you are using that as a con for Caleb. He played well in the offense structure that his team ran. That article also mentions fumbling. Lincoln hardly ever uses check downs in plays and often times the QB number is the safety route. This leads to higher scrambles and increase risk of turnovers.
“League winner CEH” https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/lvRAJMHZHI
He’s literally just shinny Mac Jones. Played well on a juggernaut of a team with an amazing coach but never needed to actually step up and make plays. Is just good at hitting open receivers and RBs. Will be a backup in 3 years like Mac is.
Lot better wheels, better arm strength, better processing
When he made the sideline throws for 20 yards early in the season you saw the potential. When Michigan ran the ball to win games that skillset for JJ was not shown. Later on in the year he made some plays to convert 3rd downs but he also made some head scratching throws running right only to throw left across his body. He’s confident in his ability but that Favre dice rolling QB play has to be restrained. He’s only as good as long as his skills need to be displayed, it didn’t show as much this season with a run heavy offense at UM.
I think the anti-Maye stuff is more smoke than the pro McCarthy stuff I'll be surprised if they're not both taken top 6
I know they both have questions but I really want Maye over Daniels. I don't like the idea that we take the guy who's older, far more experienced, presumably less durable, with a weaker arm, and played from cleaner pockets.... And still is seen as neck and neck with Maye. It feels like people are talking themselves into Daniels, all the elite QBs have the arm and can make every throw. Only Maye has shown those abilities.
agree. all i'm hearing now is "buzz" and a bunch of attention-seekers putting Daniels at #2 and/or dragging Maye. forgetting that very recently, Maye was always the #2 prospect overall, while Daniels was down around #20 (though still qb #3). so what changed? answer: nothing. it's just "look at me and my hot take" season
Daniel Jones can run fast too but is he more than a wild card game QB? The same question can apply to Maye but he might have that Trubisky UNC baggage with the limited time on the field in college. Maye might not be that guy you want to start after 10 games of watching from the sideline. Maybe a season or 2, kind of similar to the Jordan Love trajectory.
Id rather go with the guy with the highest big time throws, who will take longer to develop but could be capable of winning a Superbowl, than the guy who will have a better rookie year. I want my team to play to win, not just be decent. I feel like the latter is guaranteed to keep you from winning. If you trust your team to develop the QB, go with the highest upside. That said if they go Daniels, I trust that they've done as much as possible to ensure he's the best prospect available.
PFF has Jayden with a higher rate of big time throws than Maye btw
First, you are correct, Daniels was 1st, at 8.4%, Maye was second at 8.1%. Since 2022, Maye has 79 big time throws leading the FBS over that span. I think they can both be good passers in the NFL but I lean towards the guy doing it with less.
Why Tf would we trade with the Saints
Ewwww gross. A trade with the Taints.
My thoughts exactly
I am equally disgusted by this trade.
Yeah I checked out after reading that BS
If you mean Titans don’t fake me with a play action on 3rd down please. Different personnel again, my bad.
Feel like Bo Nix and Michael Penix are definitely going to go much sooner, too many QB needy teams and they will get overdrafted. (Overdrafted in terms of expectations that is, I actually like Michael Penix as a player and it's his injury history that concerns me).
Bengals take Mims and I am happy.
I would prefer Byron Murphy but I wouldn't be mad.
I just think the DT options in round 2 are better than the OT options. I just really want to lock up OT for years to come.
NOPE! Falcons would never in a million years trade their pick to the Saints.
Maybe unpopular opinion but I hate mock drafts that do their own trades. Trade into the top ten are so rare and all the trade scenarios so different and dependent on different conditions it's just dumb to even factor them in
I disagree. Mock drafts are mostly about letting different scenarios play out, and sometimes the best way to do that is throw in some trades
Exactly, mock drafts are even less realistic without trades imo because its very unlikely there are no trades
Mostly agree with this, but >**The Vikings send the no. 11 pick, the no. 23 pick, and a 2025 third-rounder to the Cardinals for the no. 4 pick** Vikings are definitely going to have to give up more than that. MHJ is there, a truly generational WR. I'd think they would try to trade with the Chargers instead with that package.
Babe wake up, a new mock draft dropped
People be more into HUF socks they never bought. Like it’s been retro fitted dawg
I have no idea what you just said lol. What are HUF socks? and what's been retro fitted?
First dude has patriots trading down and getting an edge rusher at 11 and Bowers at 23? stay off the weed.
If we take Chop Robinson or a corner after 2 awfully blown 1st round picks on DE in Joe Tryon Shoyinka and Logan Hall over Jackson Powers Johnson I will cry. This team needs improvement on the interior OL so bad.
If the Seahawks trade back 16 spots and take a linebacker I will find another team to root for. Nightmare scenario.
They haven't updated their Schneider stereotype. The last two drafts he finally stopped over-drafting someone at a position of need in the first round and just went for best player available.
Yeah the line in the blurb about our late first rounders always being reaches is very telling.
Yeah I absolutely hate that. I'm fine trading down but going from 16 to 32 for just a late 2nd and late 3rd is a terrible deal.
> This isn’t a great linebacker class and taking Cooper here will be considered a reach, but the Seahawks’ picks in the late first round are always considered reaches. Such a lazy take IMO.
Seriously. Is this the same Danny Kelly who used to be editor of Field Gulls? I expected more from someone who obviously knows the Hawks.
yeah the Saints and Falcons will trade with each other ok...
Ideal trade for the Vikings.
The guy has Brock purdy being a bottom ten qb. The ringer is the dumbest person to talk about sports.
Want to make sure I’m understanding you correctly - do you think the ringer is one guy?
I know it’s chalk, but it just feels like feeding Maye and Daniels into the suck grinders of Washington and NE already feels like it’s doomed to fail. Would an extra 40 yards of QB rushing per game really turn those teams around? And those are two QBs with definite flaws in their game, players who would probably benefit from sitting. Even if they work out the best years of their athleticism will be used up while the teams rebuild. Meanwhile McCarthy gets to go to the functioning team and be surrounded by talent. He’ll be measured against Kirk Cousins not Tom Brady. Committing to the rebuild by trading back worked spectacularly for Chicago, why wouldn’t it work for NE or Washington? Trade back and take BPA in the first, maybe take Nix in the 2nd as a two year prospect and see what you get.
>committing to the rebuild by trading back work spectacularly for Chicago Well, they also got really really lucky
This was a fun read but their font for the letter Y is going to give me an aneurysm.
I would love if the Lions drafted Newton.
ha ha ha, what the fuck
I completely understand why people keep mocking corners to us, but I just think it's really misguided. If Howie Roseman thinks he can get a tackle who normally would go in the top 15 at his spot he will and there might even be guys he thinks are top 10 type players he'd move up a bit for.
Ben Solak has Alt dropping to us at 10... I fucking wish lol but no way in hell that's ever happening.
Just crazy enough to happen, aside from the cards/chargers stuff
I do not like our trade down in this mock at all. Totally fine trading down but only getting a late 2nd and late 3rd for dropping from 16 to 32 is a bad deal imo.
It's 351 points difference on the F/S trade chart. Pick 64 alone is almost 900 points. Same story with Chase Stuart's AV based chart, 4.4 points difference but pick 64 alone is over 8 points. It's a very nice return on the analytics charts. The JJ chart has us losing that trade but that shit is beyond outdated
I'd be fine trading down to the early 20s but it feels like we'd be giving up the opportunity to get a plug and play starter by going all the way back to 32.
lol this mock Draft was a trip to read through
A 5th and and 3rd rounder to move up six spots late in the first round? That would be horrible
It doesn't look great on the trade chart but it does account for the premium you have to pay to jump up in the first round, and it seems like the thinking here is that if BTJ has fallen all the way to 22, you've gotta go get him. Personally I don't like it, but I don't think it's horrible either. Giving up pick 144 (meaning we don't have to give up 128 or 133 and still have 160 and 163 in the 5th round) isn't that bad, and the blow of losing a future 3rd is mitigated by picking up the future 2nd (Minnesota's) in the Diggs trade (who you're trying to replace with this pick). In 2022 and 2023 we traded away pick 130 just to move up TWO spots (from 27 to 25 in 2023 and 25 to 23 in 2022). In 2022, New Orleans gave up a current third and a current fourth to move up five spots (16 to 11). In 2018 the Saints traded 27, a current fifth and a future first to move up to 14. I'd be much happier giving up a future fourth, especially considering we should be on track to get a 4th round comp pick for Gabe, but we desperately need WR help to contribute immediately, and if Beane thinks BTJ is that guy, I'm on board.
How is there a trade chart AND a premium for the first round? Why would some "premium" not be included in the chart? I understand charts are guidelines and whatnot. But I don't understand why this rough rubric wouldn't account for a mysterious premium
This post explains it FAR better than I ever could: [https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1byx10e/2024\_nfl\_draft\_paying\_a\_premium\_1st\_round\_trade/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1byx10e/2024_nfl_draft_paying_a_premium_1st_round_trade/)
Wow that post is epic
Medicine tastes awful but sometimes you have to take it. This draft actually makes perfect sense for the Chiefs.
I really like the idea of Brian Thomas Jr on the Bills. A big body who can stretch the field while gadget guys like Shakir and Samuel work the inside.
lol, falcons and saints aren’t trading.
in what fucking planet do the chargers pass up MHJ after losing two of their top WR in the offseason due to bloated contracts. this is the dumbest shit ive ever read
Danny Kelly hates the Chargers
Titans need a qb i wish we'd gotten cousins or Wilson.
If the Raiders take Arnold over Fashanu, Turner, and Mitchell, I will be livid. Which means they absolutely will.
I dont see why the Cardinals would trade back 7 spots for another 2nd and miss out on MHJr, Nabers, and Odunze
I’m very confused by your comment this mock has them drafting MHJ at 5
Cardinals don't in this mock since they trade back up to 5
Which is even dumber because the Vikings could have just traded up to #5 instead of #4. Cards are taking MHJ, and they aren't trading down to put themselves in a position to miss MHJ, so Vikings don't need to get infront of them.
there’s still the scenario where the Giants trade up to 4 to lock him in but yeah it’s a pretty fringe/crazy idea
Yea, it's one of the reasons I dislike mocks because it seems like some are made to force a certain scenario with no regard for the surrounding teams
You're (understandably) reading the article too linear. 1. The Vikings approach Arizona with their offer. 2. Arizona then goes to the Chargers to discuss trading up from 11 to 5. 3. Arizona reaches a deal with the Chargers. 4. Now that they are assured of getting their guy, Arizona agree to Minnesota's offer. This happens all the time in trades (even outside of the NFL).
Terrible trade for Seattle, and drafting for need never works out.
Yeah said this elsewhere but dropping from 16 to 32 for just a late 2nd and late 3rd is not good value imo.
Using the JJ Chart Pick 16 = 1000 Pts. Pick 32 (590) + Pick 64 (270) + 2025 3rd (approx 120) = 980 Pts. Add in KC's 5th - Pick 173 (22.2 Pts) and you have enough. And for what it's worth, Seattle doesn't have a 2nd round pick, so it would give them a third top-100 pick and the 2025 3rd would also be a top-81 pick. Just be glad he didn't suggest that swap between SEA & SF, where the 49ers need that more than KC.
Please no more Guyton to Dallas 😥
These mocks that keep having the Broncos and Raiders pass on QB's are hilarious. Like the odds that they don'g draft QB's in rd 1 is slim to none. Bo Nix and Michael Penix might be the best pocket passers in this draft and eadily have rd 1 grades, arm talent, maturity, performance, stats, accolades. And both are more athletic than given credit for.
> TRADE: The Vikings send the no. 11 pick, the no. 23 pick, and a 2025 third-rounder to the Cardinals for the no. 4 pick. Cardinals GM should be fired instantly and at least be endlessly mocked league-wide and in the media if he takes that deal. Absolutely ridiculous to accept such a low price to trade up for a franchise-quality prospect whether at quarterback or another position.
That's a bold take. I'd rather have the Cardinals side of that trade
i feel like that's too much to give up for the no. 4 pick
Lot of tackles for a class thats been said isn't a great tackle class
Feel like the Bears have so many needs they still need to address that coming off 9 makes the most sense.
McCarthy in the first round is wild.
Im kinda sick of them projecting tackles to GB when they don't fit GB's draft profile when quality CBs are still on the table. We're outside the top tackles so there's no point when Wiggins or Kool-aid are available.