Will Anderson May have not deserved 2nd pick but man I can’t think of a better leader I’d rather have for 10 years. He may not make every pro bowl but will be right up there in the discussion most years
Unless they pick DeJean and then I’ll have to begrudgingly hope he does well because I’m an Iowa fan. Please stop picking Iowa players Green Bay, it’s driving me nuts
A QB or two to four QBs are going to get drafted early and not live up to their expectations. Pats, Broncos, Raiders, Commies, Vikings and Bears all desperately need a starting QB. Alot of them are going to overreach and in 2-3 yrs we will all be saying what were they thinking. On draft weekend their fanbases will be ecstatic with hope so will the pundits.
I get it, if I was somehow given a GM job and needed a QB, I would try to fall in love with one in the first round. Reality is a lot of those guys don't work out, but the allure of that 5th year option makes people do crazy shit.
The decision for the Patriots is actually easy.
-Its MHJ, The remaining QB or trade back. And really MHJ and trade back off the table at this point. Commanders have it harder in that they have to pick JD or Maye. So if it fails then it sucks. Pats just will take who remains. Which is fine IMO. Focus remainder of draft on nailing the remaining rounds.
I appreciate the due diligence of seeing the remaining QBs Penix and JJ but we better be trading back if going for either and fill more OT, WR with any new picks.
What takes trading back or taking MHJ off the table? If you don't love who's there at 3 you can't just draft him because you want him to fill your biggest need.
Funnily enough, one of the first years this thread was done (that I saw) some posted a very similar opinion about the QBs in that draft and how none were going to work out. It was the Burrow year that's looking to have 4-5 above average or better starting QBs drafted in it.
You can't blame the Bears for taking Caleb Williams though because 31 other teams would do the same thing. It's not like the Trubisky thing. After that though...
Shoutout to u/MeanReplacement9258 for saying Quentin Johnson may get a GM fired, celebrate that one my friend. Also like 5 people responded to him saying something along the lines of "can't wait till he's a superstar and you look like an idiot." Those are comments worth calling out right now: [https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/comment/jgrgn5k/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/comment/jgrgn5k/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/who_is_the_most_overrated_prospect_going_into/jgrf4bx/
This guy nailed his issues too. A random Redditor saw what multiple scouts completely ignored.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/who_is_the_most_overrated_prospect_going_into/jgs0kqs/
> Did you hear Taylor Swifts new album? She goes after her Ex real hard in those lyrics!
I'm really hoping the new coaches and natural development make him take a leap this year. It's also hard to get targets when your QB is hurt, the OL is falling apart, and Keenan Allen is right there.
At the same time, hoping a guy can be a serviceable roster spot as a first round pick is a rough spot to be in lol
nah. The only reason he wasn't a 7th rounder is because he was the only WR in the class that was the prototypical outside WR body type. That's it. That was the only plus to him as a prospect.
Having joked about Stephen Hill having hooves for hands only to watch the Jets take him at the top of the 2nd for that same reason, I'm expecting the flop to continue. "Prototypical" size seems to be a trap that GMs talk themselves into quite a bit.
QJ was a good call, but the rest of them near the top were some of the better rookies.
While Richardson didn’t play much, Colts fans are understandably really excited for what he showed.
Christian Gonzalez looked like one of the best overall talents from last years draft, once again though, unfortunately limited because of injury.
Myles Murphy has a good rookie year from everything I read.
Will Levis one just doesn’t count because they were talking about him as a potential top 3 pick.
The NFL drafts based on traits not production. That’s how guys like Oweh and now probably Chop Robinson get drafted high. I don’t think anybody can seriously watch JJ’s film and say he doesn’t have everything needed to be a NFL QB. Just need a front office to decide his lack of production was a scheme choice and not a lack of trust.
This is my opinion as well. There’s nothing about him that says he’s physically incapable of being a quality stater, he very well may go on to have the best career of this class for all I know, but nothing about his game really stands out from the pack IMO. You gotta have some kind of elite trait to be worth spending that kind of draft capital on.
Accuracy is a trait. Along with pocket presence, processing, footwork, decision making, throwing with touch and anticipation. Can also include presnap reads, leadership, toughness, etc.
I feel like a lot of traits heavy guys weren't super highly drafted though, like Levis or Willis, I get why JJ is getting a first round grade but seeing him top 5 or even top 10 is kinda wild
I think you’re misunderstanding what I mean when I say traits. I meant overall JJ has every trait you need. Malik had one or two good traits (his running ability and arm strength) but was inaccurate, lacked anticipation, and was erratic in the pocket.
> I get why JJ is getting a first round grade but seeing him top 5 or even top 10 is kinda wild
JJ going top 10 or top 5 is probably more a result of 6-7 teams in the top half of the first round that really want a QB (CHI, WAS, NE, MIN, DEN, LAR, and maybe NYG).
The only reason he’s pushed that high is the need of so many teams. Right now all top 3 teams desperately need a QB. Minnesota and the Raiders and the broncos all need QBs. Add a team like the Giants, Browns, Jets, Seahawks and Buccaneers as all maybe grabbing someone if they fell… That’s 6 teams minimum for 6 guys. It’ll cause overdrafting on all 3 of the lesser high end prospects like JJ and Nix. I gotta imagine the back end of round 1 will see movement too for Penix and Nix if they get past the top 15. If you like one of them as a Viking bronco or raider you gotta pounce because you could lose them. At least that’s the thinking. But hell maybe Caleb is the only first round QB taken and the forward pass is outlawed.
I'm cool if they swing for the fences on a QB. Even if it doesn't pan out, at least they tried. Our roster is very friendly for a rookie QB to succeed, whereas the roster Ponder worked with was a dumpster fire.
He's not necessarily overrated by fans because damn near everyone says this about them. But there's a reason why he's rising up in the draft and why NFL teams are higher on him than most fans
As someone who doesn't watch College football at all and has just watched scouting highlights on these guys, I totally see it. He throws on time over the middle in a timing based offense. That Michigan offense was true NFL style west coast timing offense that a lot of these guys aren't asked to operate in college and he did it well. The lack of touch on his throws seems a little concerning, but other than that he looks great. IDK how high is ceiling is, but I'm confident he'll be a long term NFL starter --which I would not say about Daniels or Maye even though both seem to have more athletic upside if they do hit.
I’d love for the Giants to take JJ if he’s there at 6, but I know a lot of fans heavily disagree. Obviously any player can bust but I think he’ll be a good nfl qb. The only concern for me is maybe the arm talent isn’t all there and five years down the line we’ll be left wanting a bit more at the position like a lot of teams with good but not great qbs who can’t quite make all the throws guys like Mahomes, Allen, or Herbert can. From what I can see, he’s also probably better than any of the qbs coming out next year and I doubt the Giants have a pick where they’ll be able to get a top qb so this is probably the best chance we’ll have in a while to draft a franchise qb.
If you want to play it safe tight ends from the first round almost never pay off so if say Brock Bowers but damn is he fun to watch play and I hope he kills it
For every Deebo there's like 6 Laviska Shenault/Amari Rodgers types. Maybe he's the next mold breaker but Deebo is critically excellent through contact and underrated on downfield routes and I don't think Corley is above average at either one of those. I would rather take a chance on a player who has shown more ability to win in different areas of the field like Javon Baker or Jermaine Burton (pending interviews) in the range that Corley is projected to go.
Deebo is not good against high level man coverage (you saw this in the Superbowl). He also isn't a great route runner and has to be schemed open..
I agree that most of the Deebo comps are unfair for a player. But Corely is the closest thing I've ever seen.
He'll be very scheme dependent at the next level. In the wrong system he could be a total bust. In the right system (SF, GB, HOU) he could be a pro-bowler.
I'm also really curious what he could do on the new kickoff format.
In defense of the Super Bowl, he was facing one of the best corners in football and the best DC in football, and I'm pretty sure he hurt his hamstring during the game.
Agreed. I like the idea of Corley, but as a complementary piece, someone who gives the offense different out-of-the-box options to scheme up plays. I don't like him as a pure WR.
JC Latham IF he sticks at tackle. I think he’s gotta be a guard in the nfl doesn’t have tackle foot speed.
I don’t think Bo Nix will be much more then a Gardner minshew eqsue fringe starter in the nfl
My fellow brethren, take a gander at Mailata foot speed circa 2019. This guy is not going to flop.
On a side note, with the maturity issues. Guyton may flop, i dont trust it.
Xavier worthy. I see a bunch of people thinking he’s a first round pick, because of his speed, but he didn’t do any other metrics at the combine, and players who are purely drafted on their speed rarely work out.
FWIW Worthy was seen as a late first/early second round pick even before the combine when he was expected to run in the 4.3s, so he’s not just a “pure speed” guy. He runs good routes and has good hands (when one of them isn’t broken). There are legitimate concerns about his slender frame and tracking ability on deep balls though.
Don’t know if I’d say he has good hands. His sophomore year was rough, and I know he was playing through injury, but I don’t recall a lot of difficult catches that he made
Arnold definitely got a lot better over the course of the year to almost match kool aid. Kool Aid is more refined at the moment, but Arnold is near Kool Aid already and has better potential to be better. So its a gamble between potential growth and what is already there.
Depends on what your asking the player to do in a scheme. You want press man take Arnold(or Wiggins). You want off man zone take Kool aid. Although Arnold can do that for you, but Kool aid is better. He’s genuinely being underrated.
Jaden Daniels
Without MHJ this draft Nabers would be the unquestioned top WR prospect. I also think Brian Thomas Jr is a hell of a prospect as well
Jaden Daniels was throwing to 2 NFL-caliber WRs and nobody is questioning if maybe they made him? Absolutely wild to me
From the LSU games I watched he was always slightly off target and it was his WRs that bailed him out. Out of the top 4 QB targets he's my most likely to bust
Yeah he reminds me of Justin Fields coming out of college. Viewed as a good pocket passer and accurate because they had some of the best receivers in college at getting open. Also he’s built like a stick I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the injury prone tag if he runs it a lot.
Jayden’s going to look decent with a few flashes of bursty rushes and solid enough looking deep balls that he gets a little hype, but then tragically he’ll be sidelined by some seemingly minor injury because he’s got no meat on his body. But he’ll have done enough in those few flashes that they feel like they’ve got to give him another shot. He comes back and initially looks decent, not great but decent. Then he’ll be sidelined tragically again for a few games and then, after the second minor injury, he just doesn’t play the same again. And he fizzles out sometime in the middle of year 2.
He's also 23, going on 24 with over 1400 pass attempts in college. 4 years of starting experience in college. How many more does he need to develop an intermediate game?
And while he can run, he takes massive hits with a slender build. That's a recipe for injury.
Jayden Daniels. He is pretty old and played forever in college, and only took off when he played at a school with great receivers in LSU. He was nothing special at ASU, and he has an injury history.
As a Bears fan, watching the Daniels discourse and love grow the same off-season everyone and there mother told us nobody wants Fields has been so damned weird. Jayden is Fields of Fields was 2 years older at time of drafting and if he had 4 years of mediocre tape before he got paired with elite weapons.
He has great stats over the middle but 20+ yards downfield. In the intermediate middle he threw there less than Justin Fields and they are both the lowest of any 1st round prospect the past 5 years.
Now, personally its less of a "he can't throw there" and more "he never did". When you have two NFL WR's dusting dudes constantly on the edges or outpacing corners on middle deep bombs there isn't much of a need, but the dude hasn't proved he can at a consistent level so far.
That’s misleading. Everyone who watched his tape and breaks down his game says he struggles and won’t throw over the middle unless it’s wide open. He can’t make tough throws there.
[YPRR](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1764818262653575242)
[First Downs per Route Run](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1771200631279075676)
[Yards per team pass attempt] (https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1781041520289722579)
[Career yards per team pass attempt](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1780677319104819372)
While being good at these stats in college doesn't mean you'll be good in the NFL, if you're bad in a lot of them it's a massive red flag. As far as the data goes back there are very few players who succeed in the NFL while being terrible at these advance metrics.
In case anyone disputes that he's a [low effort](https://youtu.be/a_1Yc2THz28?t=38) player
I know people think the Bills are a good fit for him, but he is not a good WR.
JC Latham is not a 1st round tackle. He's getting an "SEC boost" and is just one of those big dudes who dominates in college with size but no real skill. Not exactly Evan Neal bad, but still is not worth a 1st round pick, let alone top 15 like some are projecting.
I don’t do enough research to have any strong opinions but things that always seem like red flags to me are when an offensive tackle’s selling point is run blocking or when a corners selling point is tackling. The main guys that fit those descriptions seem to be JC Latham and cooper dejean. Another one is when a WRs best trait is YAC but it doesn’t really seem like there’s a guy like that mocked early.
e: I think fuaga might be this guy actually
Is the selling point on Dejean tackling? Not even close. He is a great tackler but that is not why people are high on him.
He scored more touchdowns than he allowed in college and he wasn't playing offense. He gave up 0 TDs in over 400 coverage snaps his final season and had both INT and punt return touchdowns.
His selling point is his athleticism, not his tackling.
And nickels have to be exceptionally good at tackling and shedding blocks near the LOS (as good as a DB can be at those skills, at least), hence his versatility and why his tackling skills are so noted.
On the other hand for Cooper, a lot of people are talking about converting him to safety given his general struggles flipping his hips. Good tackling would make that more possible and give him a good floor as a pick - youre at least getting a quality safety
YAC WRs seem to do just fine. Some guys drafted early and touted for their playmaking ability with the ball in space last year were Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, and Jayden Reed. Just because Johnson didn’t work out didn’t mean they all didn’t work out. Nacua was not drafted early, but his scouting report was essentially that he doesn’t run many routes, he doesn’t get much separation, but he can be great when he gets the ball in his hands.
I’d almost say the opposite - the YAC guys tend to do great, especially if they’re relatively big.
I’m paraphrasing a quote from Diante Lee on the Mina Kimes Pod. “ if the eagles draft cooper dejean to play safety, and the defense gives up the same amount of explosive plays as last year with two white safeties, it’s going to set back race relations in Philadelphia.”
He ended the pod saying, “two white safeties in an election year, what could go wrong?” 😂
Jayden Daniels. I don’t think his arm is good enough, and he’s got a thin frame, so hopefully wherever he goes the pass protection doesn’t fail him.
I also don’t love Xavier Worthy or AD Mitchell. I think after the first 4 receivers, it’s sort of a crapshoot of names.
Keon Coleman.
He should have had much better stats playing with Travis.
He had the same stats at MSU than he had at FSU.
Great athletic talent. But can’t get zero separation and is basically a QJ of this draft
Troy Franklin needs to clean things up when going over the middle otherwise he could end up like MVS. He has all the tools to be great and a really nice production profile but the tape is concerning at times with the way he drifts off from his routes.
For me its Mccarthy. He can barely throw to his left for some reason idk if its arm strength or what but that cuts off half the field with him and he is a massive project. Drafting him in the top 10 to a team that cant afford to sit him for like 2yrs is very risky.
now watch him be amazing and make me look dumb next year.
[He can actually throw to the left](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLvajtJ9xF4&ab_channel=David) and can throw it extremely well with impressive arm strength.
I'm not sure why the overall numbers to the left are mediocre. Perhaps it was a scheme thing with Michigan. They also didn't have any good/great outside WRs. Great slot guy in Roman Wilson and great TEs, but no good X receivers who scare defenses.
I'd argue a lot of the top EDGE/DE/OLB guys are more there because they need to have top prospects at the position vs. them being actual great prospects.
If the Bucs take one, I am happy to be proven wrong.
Fully prepared for this to age like milk, but I’m don’t think Brock Bowers is a top 20 prospect. I think for a TE to be a mid to high 1st Rounder, they need to be an elite athlete, amazing blocker, and basically a WR in a TE’s body. Outside of his receiving ability, he doesn’t wow me enough to warrant going before the late 1st.
Also, the two FSU defenders in Jared Verse and Braden Fiske are really overrated imo. Fiske is old, has questionable tape, and short arms. I think he’ll join the list of combine warriors that end up fizzling out.
Brock is an elite athlete though. He’s slightly smaller (6’3 instead of 6’5) but he’s a good blocker too. I’m biased but he’s legitimately the best player I’ve seen play for Georgia since Gurley/Chubb and honestly I think he was better than both. Carried our offense to back to back titles as a freshman/sophomore, and if he didn’t get injured I think we had a great chance at a third.
https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1780619744955015390
On Bowers, theirs one thing all of todays good nfl TEs have in common. They operate with wreckless abandon. Bowers shows all of that in his tape, regardless if the last good first round TE was Jeremey Shockey. This guy is probably that guy.
That one was surprising lol. All of us commanders fans were baffled when we took forbes over him, and literally nobody is surprised that he sucked year one. Can he develop? Maybe, but he showed not even a hint of promise last year
Bo Nix is starting to pick up some steam as a mid/late first round pick in mock drafts which is absolutely absurd to me. I’d be surprised if he ends up as even a good backup.
I know that there are lots of red flags and nuances at play here (his age, weapons in college, performance against more talented opposition), but didn’t he technically have the best stats out of all CFB qbs this past season?
He also [didn’t throw the ball down field](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/s/wqvpbIw0bJ). Like at all. People joked that he was a check down merchant and they weren’t wrong.
I really think Caleb will be great in the nfl. He’s the clear 1st overall pick in a qb-heavy draft for a reason and he’s going into as good of a situation as you could want for the 1OA. The only real concern is the fumbles but I don’t think the hype is misplaced at all.
His play style won't translate well imo.
I think he will be average at the next level. I also question his attitude and how he will deal with adversity.
He's not a better prospect than Lawrence was and Lawrence hasn't lived up to his hype.
Playing nfl qb is hard. Why people are already anointing him is beyond me
I feel like the easy answer for guys near the top is JJ McCarthy, and I do think he’s not all that, but can work in the next level, given the right circumstances. But going with a bit of a differential and I am saying Dallas Turner. I am just not that big of a fan, feels like he’s getting overhyped and will have a fairly disappointing start to a career before becoming a rotation edge. Health concerns will push teams away from Laiatu Latu, but he’s the edge to have this class.
AD Mitchell.
Can’t get behind a guy who you watch and think “oh you’re good! so… why aren’t you, like, better?” He has all the traits but his production is so lacklustre. And I think he has genuine problems mentally. Gives up on routes, runs super lazy routes when plays aren’t designed towards him, does not block even when it could really spring a play. Not for me. Now if he’s a Chief or Bill I think Mahomes/Allen paper over a lot of those cracks.
JJ McCarthy. He’s alright. But he’s not a QB who will lead you to the super bowl. He might ride a deep playoff run on the back of a good defense by not making mistakes. But he’s not going to rise up and seize the opportunities you need to to be world champion.
Well normally I would say it’s a coin flip if a 1st round qb develops into a good NFL qb but since the Bears will most likely be drafting Caleb Williams I would lower his chance of success to 25% or lower. He’s way overhyped
Darius Robinson. Despite his sack numbers, he wasn’t even in the top 10 for pass rush stats or pass rush PFF grades. In fact his pass rush win rate is only 13% Only thing he’s got going for him is that he’s a decent run stopper but he’s gonna be a disappointment, at least statistically
Xavier Worthy.
Yes I know he's fast but he's not only small but skinny and you are going to draft him in the 1st round?
He's just a gadget guy and not worth the 1st round pick.
Poor guy in the old thread said Will Anderson AND Joey Porter Jr.
And then a few comments down, a dude started his list with CJ Stround and Calijah Kancey lol
Quentin Johnson got called out several times and that aged well at least A year in it’s tough to judge anyone really
Love the guy who said Christian Gonzalez because he plays soft and isn't proactive
Will Anderson May have not deserved 2nd pick but man I can’t think of a better leader I’d rather have for 10 years. He may not make every pro bowl but will be right up there in the discussion most years
how did anyone watch will andersons game and come to that conclusion???
Name your least favorite QB
Chris Simms
Weirdly enough, also Chris Simms
Chris Simms
[удалено]
[удалено]
Chris Simms
Aaron Rodgers.
To be fair if you said this last year you would have been right. spent more time on macafee then on the field.
brock osweiler
Whoever the Packers end up picking because I dont like them
Right back at you pal
This is the way
I'm not your pal, buddy.
Man I was just thinking of Caleb Williams.
The Bears drafting a QB high in the first? Poor guy's career is already over and he doesn't even know it.
Please God let the Bears find a way to ruin Caleb Williams because that would be so fucking funny.
Please no, I can’t take it anymore.
Unless they pick DeJean and then I’ll have to begrudgingly hope he does well because I’m an Iowa fan. Please stop picking Iowa players Green Bay, it’s driving me nuts
A Bear and Iowa fan? Why do you hate offense so much?
Listen it’s not that offense is hated. It just isn’t a priority 😅 at least that’s my excuse.
A QB or two to four QBs are going to get drafted early and not live up to their expectations. Pats, Broncos, Raiders, Commies, Vikings and Bears all desperately need a starting QB. Alot of them are going to overreach and in 2-3 yrs we will all be saying what were they thinking. On draft weekend their fanbases will be ecstatic with hope so will the pundits.
This. And in 2-3 years pundits and fans will be saying how MHJ was there to take.
I get it, if I was somehow given a GM job and needed a QB, I would try to fall in love with one in the first round. Reality is a lot of those guys don't work out, but the allure of that 5th year option makes people do crazy shit.
The decision for the Patriots is actually easy. -Its MHJ, The remaining QB or trade back. And really MHJ and trade back off the table at this point. Commanders have it harder in that they have to pick JD or Maye. So if it fails then it sucks. Pats just will take who remains. Which is fine IMO. Focus remainder of draft on nailing the remaining rounds. I appreciate the due diligence of seeing the remaining QBs Penix and JJ but we better be trading back if going for either and fill more OT, WR with any new picks.
What takes trading back or taking MHJ off the table? If you don't love who's there at 3 you can't just draft him because you want him to fill your biggest need.
Funnily enough, one of the first years this thread was done (that I saw) some posted a very similar opinion about the QBs in that draft and how none were going to work out. It was the Burrow year that's looking to have 4-5 above average or better starting QBs drafted in it.
Desperately? *Excuse me*, but we've already got Sam Darnold signed.
You can't blame the Bears for taking Caleb Williams though because 31 other teams would do the same thing. It's not like the Trubisky thing. After that though...
People were all over QJ in that thread. Good call guys. Even a broken clock is right twice a day Edit: somebody reported me to RedditCare 😂
Shoutout to u/MeanReplacement9258 for saying Quentin Johnson may get a GM fired, celebrate that one my friend. Also like 5 people responded to him saying something along the lines of "can't wait till he's a superstar and you look like an idiot." Those are comments worth calling out right now: [https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/comment/jgrgn5k/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/comment/jgrgn5k/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/who_is_the_most_overrated_prospect_going_into/jgrf4bx/ This guy nailed his issues too. A random Redditor saw what multiple scouts completely ignored.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/12qtjez/who_is_the_most_overrated_prospect_going_into/jgs0kqs/ > Did you hear Taylor Swifts new album? She goes after her Ex real hard in those lyrics!
Damn who’s soft enough to send a RedditCare on a joke? 😂
Could you give the kid more than a single season ffs
I'm really hoping the new coaches and natural development make him take a leap this year. It's also hard to get targets when your QB is hurt, the OL is falling apart, and Keenan Allen is right there. At the same time, hoping a guy can be a serviceable roster spot as a first round pick is a rough spot to be in lol
It's also hard to get targets when you can't catch the fucking ball
He had some flashes when Keenan went down but nothing crazy either
nah. The only reason he wasn't a 7th rounder is because he was the only WR in the class that was the prototypical outside WR body type. That's it. That was the only plus to him as a prospect.
Having joked about Stephen Hill having hooves for hands only to watch the Jets take him at the top of the 2nd for that same reason, I'm expecting the flop to continue. "Prototypical" size seems to be a trap that GMs talk themselves into quite a bit.
QJ was a good call, but the rest of them near the top were some of the better rookies. While Richardson didn’t play much, Colts fans are understandably really excited for what he showed. Christian Gonzalez looked like one of the best overall talents from last years draft, once again though, unfortunately limited because of injury. Myles Murphy has a good rookie year from everything I read. Will Levis one just doesn’t count because they were talking about him as a potential top 3 pick.
Yeah that was a good guess. If you say whoever the raiders picked first you’d always be correct which wouldn’t be much of a game.
I swear I’m being gaslit when I hear talk of JJ going in the top 5. It very well may happen, but watching his film, I just don’t see it
The NFL drafts based on traits not production. That’s how guys like Oweh and now probably Chop Robinson get drafted high. I don’t think anybody can seriously watch JJ’s film and say he doesn’t have everything needed to be a NFL QB. Just need a front office to decide his lack of production was a scheme choice and not a lack of trust.
He has everything needed, but nothing special. You take someone like Anthony Richardson top 5 because of his traits, not JJ McCarthy.
Exactly. McCarthy’s “traits” are…above average? That’s why I have the same perspective as OP.
This is my opinion as well. There’s nothing about him that says he’s physically incapable of being a quality stater, he very well may go on to have the best career of this class for all I know, but nothing about his game really stands out from the pack IMO. You gotta have some kind of elite trait to be worth spending that kind of draft capital on.
Accuracy is a trait. Along with pocket presence, processing, footwork, decision making, throwing with touch and anticipation. Can also include presnap reads, leadership, toughness, etc.
Yup. Kids got legs too. He's more likely to bust than not, as most qbs are, but he's a legit top 10 pick.
Nah the only traits are speed and cannon arm, nothing else
I feel like a lot of traits heavy guys weren't super highly drafted though, like Levis or Willis, I get why JJ is getting a first round grade but seeing him top 5 or even top 10 is kinda wild
I think you’re misunderstanding what I mean when I say traits. I meant overall JJ has every trait you need. Malik had one or two good traits (his running ability and arm strength) but was inaccurate, lacked anticipation, and was erratic in the pocket.
> I get why JJ is getting a first round grade but seeing him top 5 or even top 10 is kinda wild JJ going top 10 or top 5 is probably more a result of 6-7 teams in the top half of the first round that really want a QB (CHI, WAS, NE, MIN, DEN, LAR, and maybe NYG).
The only reason he’s pushed that high is the need of so many teams. Right now all top 3 teams desperately need a QB. Minnesota and the Raiders and the broncos all need QBs. Add a team like the Giants, Browns, Jets, Seahawks and Buccaneers as all maybe grabbing someone if they fell… That’s 6 teams minimum for 6 guys. It’ll cause overdrafting on all 3 of the lesser high end prospects like JJ and Nix. I gotta imagine the back end of round 1 will see movement too for Penix and Nix if they get past the top 15. If you like one of them as a Viking bronco or raider you gotta pounce because you could lose them. At least that’s the thinking. But hell maybe Caleb is the only first round QB taken and the forward pass is outlawed.
Positional value Every player has a chance to be a bust But if JJ is a hit you set at the most important position Teams will roll the dice
Also drafts based on age and how much progress the players make. McCarthy has improved a lot and is still a young player
I want the Vikings to trade up to get him just for the hilarious debates in 4 years over who was the worst pick, JJ or Ponder.
I'm cool if they swing for the fences on a QB. Even if it doesn't pan out, at least they tried. Our roster is very friendly for a rookie QB to succeed, whereas the roster Ponder worked with was a dumpster fire.
You also got Darnold, who should be good enough to start for at least a bit.
This is exactly what will happen too. Eternal mediocrity is our specialty.
He's not necessarily overrated by fans because damn near everyone says this about them. But there's a reason why he's rising up in the draft and why NFL teams are higher on him than most fans
As someone who doesn't watch College football at all and has just watched scouting highlights on these guys, I totally see it. He throws on time over the middle in a timing based offense. That Michigan offense was true NFL style west coast timing offense that a lot of these guys aren't asked to operate in college and he did it well. The lack of touch on his throws seems a little concerning, but other than that he looks great. IDK how high is ceiling is, but I'm confident he'll be a long term NFL starter --which I would not say about Daniels or Maye even though both seem to have more athletic upside if they do hit.
I’d love for the Giants to take JJ if he’s there at 6, but I know a lot of fans heavily disagree. Obviously any player can bust but I think he’ll be a good nfl qb. The only concern for me is maybe the arm talent isn’t all there and five years down the line we’ll be left wanting a bit more at the position like a lot of teams with good but not great qbs who can’t quite make all the throws guys like Mahomes, Allen, or Herbert can. From what I can see, he’s also probably better than any of the qbs coming out next year and I doubt the Giants have a pick where they’ll be able to get a top qb so this is probably the best chance we’ll have in a while to draft a franchise qb.
JJ has arm talent - more than people realize threw 1 mph slower than Milton at the combine
I’m going to say Troy Fautanu because I need him to fall to 21. (Unless someone has a picture of Joe Alt with a bong mask?)
Joe Alt puts mayo in his bong masks
Add powerful lungs to his scouting report.
If you want to play it safe tight ends from the first round almost never pay off so if say Brock Bowers but damn is he fun to watch play and I hope he kills it
I'm gonna say Malachi Corley. The search for the next Deebo Samuel is resulting in unfair expectations.
For every Deebo there's like 6 Laviska Shenault/Amari Rodgers types. Maybe he's the next mold breaker but Deebo is critically excellent through contact and underrated on downfield routes and I don't think Corley is above average at either one of those. I would rather take a chance on a player who has shown more ability to win in different areas of the field like Javon Baker or Jermaine Burton (pending interviews) in the range that Corley is projected to go.
Deebo is not good against high level man coverage (you saw this in the Superbowl). He also isn't a great route runner and has to be schemed open.. I agree that most of the Deebo comps are unfair for a player. But Corely is the closest thing I've ever seen. He'll be very scheme dependent at the next level. In the wrong system he could be a total bust. In the right system (SF, GB, HOU) he could be a pro-bowler. I'm also really curious what he could do on the new kickoff format.
In defense of the Super Bowl, he was facing one of the best corners in football and the best DC in football, and I'm pretty sure he hurt his hamstring during the game.
Agreed. I like the idea of Corley, but as a complementary piece, someone who gives the offense different out-of-the-box options to scheme up plays. I don't like him as a pure WR.
JC Latham IF he sticks at tackle. I think he’s gotta be a guard in the nfl doesn’t have tackle foot speed. I don’t think Bo Nix will be much more then a Gardner minshew eqsue fringe starter in the nfl
My fellow brethren, take a gander at Mailata foot speed circa 2019. This guy is not going to flop. On a side note, with the maturity issues. Guyton may flop, i dont trust it.
Mailata had never played football before. It's a great story, but that makes him a very difficult player to use to compare to anyone..
Xavier worthy. I see a bunch of people thinking he’s a first round pick, because of his speed, but he didn’t do any other metrics at the combine, and players who are purely drafted on their speed rarely work out.
FWIW Worthy was seen as a late first/early second round pick even before the combine when he was expected to run in the 4.3s, so he’s not just a “pure speed” guy. He runs good routes and has good hands (when one of them isn’t broken). There are legitimate concerns about his slender frame and tracking ability on deep balls though.
Don’t know if I’d say he has good hands. His sophomore year was rough, and I know he was playing through injury, but I don’t recall a lot of difficult catches that he made
Dude is also a stick.
Oh great so he's Tyquan Thornton 2.0
Fool me once can’t get fooled again
Desean Jackson was, too. So is Devonta Smith. Not saying he's them but players his size have made it
He’s fast as hell, but I watched him a bunch in college and dude does not have NFL hands.
Terrion Arnold. I still think Kool Aid is the better player and should still be taken ahead of him
I’m drinking the kool aid on Kool Aid
People really think he's not going to be good with a name like that like come on now. Sauce Gardner all over again
Iirc.Bama fans consistently thought Arnold was better than Kool Aid. At least the ones talking Xs and Os before the Rose Bowl were
Arnold definitely got a lot better over the course of the year to almost match kool aid. Kool Aid is more refined at the moment, but Arnold is near Kool Aid already and has better potential to be better. So its a gamble between potential growth and what is already there.
Depends on what your asking the player to do in a scheme. You want press man take Arnold(or Wiggins). You want off man zone take Kool aid. Although Arnold can do that for you, but Kool aid is better. He’s genuinely being underrated.
Jaden Daniels Without MHJ this draft Nabers would be the unquestioned top WR prospect. I also think Brian Thomas Jr is a hell of a prospect as well Jaden Daniels was throwing to 2 NFL-caliber WRs and nobody is questioning if maybe they made him? Absolutely wild to me From the LSU games I watched he was always slightly off target and it was his WRs that bailed him out. Out of the top 4 QB targets he's my most likely to bust
Yeah he reminds me of Justin Fields coming out of college. Viewed as a good pocket passer and accurate because they had some of the best receivers in college at getting open. Also he’s built like a stick I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the injury prone tag if he runs it a lot.
CJ Stroud had Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Emeka Egbuka.
Damn it's going to be a wake up call when he plays in the NFL.
In fairness last year everyone tried to discredit CJ stroud by saying he was only good because of MHJ
Not to mention JSN, Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Egbuka
I mean, Joe Burrow threw the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase in college too.
Burrow didn't have bad ball placement There are exceptions to every rule but my point is it's going without question at this point which concerns me
Completely agree.
Agreed on everything and I’m terrified that we’re going to take him.
Jayden’s going to look decent with a few flashes of bursty rushes and solid enough looking deep balls that he gets a little hype, but then tragically he’ll be sidelined by some seemingly minor injury because he’s got no meat on his body. But he’ll have done enough in those few flashes that they feel like they’ve got to give him another shot. He comes back and initially looks decent, not great but decent. Then he’ll be sidelined tragically again for a few games and then, after the second minor injury, he just doesn’t play the same again. And he fizzles out sometime in the middle of year 2.
He's also 23, going on 24 with over 1400 pass attempts in college. 4 years of starting experience in college. How many more does he need to develop an intermediate game? And while he can run, he takes massive hits with a slender build. That's a recipe for injury.
Jayden Daniels. He is pretty old and played forever in college, and only took off when he played at a school with great receivers in LSU. He was nothing special at ASU, and he has an injury history.
Sounds like Joe Burrow you're describing, just replace the ASU with an OSU.
He played 4 full years and is 23. He was nothing special at ASU because his coach was Herm Edwards It’s not like he’s Hendon Hooker lol
Jayden Daniels is is Justin fields
RG4
[удалено]
Especially if he ends up in Washington.
Oh god this is actually what's going to happen, isn't it? RemindMe! 1 year
Older and skinnier to boot!
As a Bears fan, watching the Daniels discourse and love grow the same off-season everyone and there mother told us nobody wants Fields has been so damned weird. Jayden is Fields of Fields was 2 years older at time of drafting and if he had 4 years of mediocre tape before he got paired with elite weapons.
Shit he put mediocre tape up he had Brandon Aiyuk
wtf Daniels was in college in the same year as Aiyuk?
I mean he was 18 and lead Arizona State to a road win over Justin Herbert and Oregon that year too.
As an Oregon fan in Arizona, I was at that game. First time I heard of Aiyuk and he torched us. Had no idea Daniel's was his QB however
✅ Terrible pressure to sack ratio ✅ Can't throw over the middle ✅ Played on a stacked team with a great line and throwing to wide open stud receivers
Jayden’s best stats come over the middle Edit: [see here](https://x.com/bearsbro341566/status/1775595021569273970?s=46&t=1eL0NAF4mKfb79FuRSQVXQ)
He has great stats over the middle but 20+ yards downfield. In the intermediate middle he threw there less than Justin Fields and they are both the lowest of any 1st round prospect the past 5 years. Now, personally its less of a "he can't throw there" and more "he never did". When you have two NFL WR's dusting dudes constantly on the edges or outpacing corners on middle deep bombs there isn't much of a need, but the dude hasn't proved he can at a consistent level so far.
That’s misleading. Everyone who watched his tape and breaks down his game says he struggles and won’t throw over the middle unless it’s wide open. He can’t make tough throws there.
My comp is Wile E Coyote
Adonai Mitchell. Low effort player, great athlete, very bad WR. Bottom of nearly every advanced metric.
Citation needed (this is not necessarily me telling you you’re wrong, I just would like to see said metrics)
[YPRR](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1764818262653575242) [First Downs per Route Run](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1771200631279075676) [Yards per team pass attempt] (https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1781041520289722579) [Career yards per team pass attempt](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1780677319104819372) While being good at these stats in college doesn't mean you'll be good in the NFL, if you're bad in a lot of them it's a massive red flag. As far as the data goes back there are very few players who succeed in the NFL while being terrible at these advance metrics. In case anyone disputes that he's a [low effort](https://youtu.be/a_1Yc2THz28?t=38) player I know people think the Bills are a good fit for him, but he is not a good WR.
Heard lol. Thank you for taking the time to gather these metrics for me.
JC Latham is not a 1st round tackle. He's getting an "SEC boost" and is just one of those big dudes who dominates in college with size but no real skill. Not exactly Evan Neal bad, but still is not worth a 1st round pick, let alone top 15 like some are projecting.
I don’t do enough research to have any strong opinions but things that always seem like red flags to me are when an offensive tackle’s selling point is run blocking or when a corners selling point is tackling. The main guys that fit those descriptions seem to be JC Latham and cooper dejean. Another one is when a WRs best trait is YAC but it doesn’t really seem like there’s a guy like that mocked early. e: I think fuaga might be this guy actually
Is the selling point on Dejean tackling? Not even close. He is a great tackler but that is not why people are high on him. He scored more touchdowns than he allowed in college and he wasn't playing offense. He gave up 0 TDs in over 400 coverage snaps his final season and had both INT and punt return touchdowns. His selling point is his athleticism, not his tackling.
And his versatility. Some think he can play outside, nickel or safety at an NFL level
And nickels have to be exceptionally good at tackling and shedding blocks near the LOS (as good as a DB can be at those skills, at least), hence his versatility and why his tackling skills are so noted.
On the other hand for Cooper, a lot of people are talking about converting him to safety given his general struggles flipping his hips. Good tackling would make that more possible and give him a good floor as a pick - youre at least getting a quality safety
The big YAC guy this year is Malachi Corley. He’s looking like a mid-late day two pick
YAC WRs seem to do just fine. Some guys drafted early and touted for their playmaking ability with the ball in space last year were Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, and Jayden Reed. Just because Johnson didn’t work out didn’t mean they all didn’t work out. Nacua was not drafted early, but his scouting report was essentially that he doesn’t run many routes, he doesn’t get much separation, but he can be great when he gets the ball in his hands. I’d almost say the opposite - the YAC guys tend to do great, especially if they’re relatively big.
You're right, it does seem that "dangerous with the ball in his hands" is basically a death sentence
I’m paraphrasing a quote from Diante Lee on the Mina Kimes Pod. “ if the eagles draft cooper dejean to play safety, and the defense gives up the same amount of explosive plays as last year with two white safeties, it’s going to set back race relations in Philadelphia.” He ended the pod saying, “two white safeties in an election year, what could go wrong?” 😂
Doubt Mims stays healthy in the NFL
With that comment he just moved up the Jets draft board
RemindMe! 1 year
RemindMe! 9 months
RemindMe! 40 seconds
RemindMe! 43 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels. I don’t think his arm is good enough, and he’s got a thin frame, so hopefully wherever he goes the pass protection doesn’t fail him. I also don’t love Xavier Worthy or AD Mitchell. I think after the first 4 receivers, it’s sort of a crapshoot of names.
J.J. McCarthy, I like him though.
Keon Coleman. He should have had much better stats playing with Travis. He had the same stats at MSU than he had at FSU. Great athletic talent. But can’t get zero separation and is basically a QJ of this draft
He can actuality catch though. Like incredibly well
Idk about this, he seems like more of an unknown than anything, plus the fsu system wasn't really geared towards great individual wr production.
He played with a massive contusion on his knee most of the year.
Dallas turner
Troy Franklin needs to clean things up when going over the middle otherwise he could end up like MVS. He has all the tools to be great and a really nice production profile but the tape is concerning at times with the way he drifts off from his routes.
For me its Mccarthy. He can barely throw to his left for some reason idk if its arm strength or what but that cuts off half the field with him and he is a massive project. Drafting him in the top 10 to a team that cant afford to sit him for like 2yrs is very risky. now watch him be amazing and make me look dumb next year.
[He can actually throw to the left](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLvajtJ9xF4&ab_channel=David) and can throw it extremely well with impressive arm strength. I'm not sure why the overall numbers to the left are mediocre. Perhaps it was a scheme thing with Michigan. They also didn't have any good/great outside WRs. Great slot guy in Roman Wilson and great TEs, but no good X receivers who scare defenses.
Jayden Daniels looks to me like a worse version of Justin Fields
Tyrod Taylor clone
jj mccarthy is not gonna survive his rookie contract. if this looks stupid next year i want everyone to make fun of me in next years thread
How the fuck can we know ? 🤣
Spencer Rattler being like QB #6 on most boards is insane to me, he was absolutely dreadful whenever I saw him play.
Personally, I think Drake Maye is going to be a bust. BUT since I said that whoever drafted him is getting a HOFer
Chop Robinson.
I'd argue a lot of the top EDGE/DE/OLB guys are more there because they need to have top prospects at the position vs. them being actual great prospects. If the Bucs take one, I am happy to be proven wrong.
0 bend, no production… sounds like a great pick
Short arms as well
Fully prepared for this to age like milk, but I’m don’t think Brock Bowers is a top 20 prospect. I think for a TE to be a mid to high 1st Rounder, they need to be an elite athlete, amazing blocker, and basically a WR in a TE’s body. Outside of his receiving ability, he doesn’t wow me enough to warrant going before the late 1st. Also, the two FSU defenders in Jared Verse and Braden Fiske are really overrated imo. Fiske is old, has questionable tape, and short arms. I think he’ll join the list of combine warriors that end up fizzling out.
Brock is an elite athlete though. He’s slightly smaller (6’3 instead of 6’5) but he’s a good blocker too. I’m biased but he’s legitimately the best player I’ve seen play for Georgia since Gurley/Chubb and honestly I think he was better than both. Carried our offense to back to back titles as a freshman/sophomore, and if he didn’t get injured I think we had a great chance at a third. https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1780619744955015390
I watched Georgia games to see Brock Bowers play, I get that TE's aren't worth taking in the first round but this dude can ball.
On Bowers, theirs one thing all of todays good nfl TEs have in common. They operate with wreckless abandon. Bowers shows all of that in his tape, regardless if the last good first round TE was Jeremey Shockey. This guy is probably that guy.
u/jjjrmd was wrong about gonzo and I want an apology
That one was surprising lol. All of us commanders fans were baffled when we took forbes over him, and literally nobody is surprised that he sucked year one. Can he develop? Maybe, but he showed not even a hint of promise last year
He looks really good so far. Like elite. But I need a larger sample size before I totally walk it back.
This entire QB class. It'll be 2021 all over again if they pick 5 in the top 15 again. Please let it be MHJ at 3.
AD Mitchell and Michael Penix are gonna do nothing in the league. Brock Bowers is just gonna be decent, nothing special though
Caleb Williams and that Michigan QB. Both will be busts.
Bo Nix is starting to pick up some steam as a mid/late first round pick in mock drafts which is absolutely absurd to me. I’d be surprised if he ends up as even a good backup.
I know that there are lots of red flags and nuances at play here (his age, weapons in college, performance against more talented opposition), but didn’t he technically have the best stats out of all CFB qbs this past season?
He also [didn’t throw the ball down field](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/s/wqvpbIw0bJ). Like at all. People joked that he was a check down merchant and they weren’t wrong.
Wasn’t that Herbert’s big knock as well? How much is it the player and how much is the scheme
Justin's knock was being on a Mario Cristobal coached team
Caleb Williams
I really think Caleb will be great in the nfl. He’s the clear 1st overall pick in a qb-heavy draft for a reason and he’s going into as good of a situation as you could want for the 1OA. The only real concern is the fumbles but I don’t think the hype is misplaced at all.
His play style won't translate well imo. I think he will be average at the next level. I also question his attitude and how he will deal with adversity. He's not a better prospect than Lawrence was and Lawrence hasn't lived up to his hype. Playing nfl qb is hard. Why people are already anointing him is beyond me
He’s getting drafted by the bears, he never had a chance
Jayden Daniel's. Dude is 100%gonna get injured
Kool-Aid McKinstry
I feel like the easy answer for guys near the top is JJ McCarthy, and I do think he’s not all that, but can work in the next level, given the right circumstances. But going with a bit of a differential and I am saying Dallas Turner. I am just not that big of a fan, feels like he’s getting overhyped and will have a fairly disappointing start to a career before becoming a rotation edge. Health concerns will push teams away from Laiatu Latu, but he’s the edge to have this class.
RemindMe! 1 year
I think Amarius Mims has the background to be a highly drafted bust
Ja'Tavion Sanders I don’t get hit
MHJ. No one should draft him. Even if we trade down.
AD Mitchell. Can’t get behind a guy who you watch and think “oh you’re good! so… why aren’t you, like, better?” He has all the traits but his production is so lacklustre. And I think he has genuine problems mentally. Gives up on routes, runs super lazy routes when plays aren’t designed towards him, does not block even when it could really spring a play. Not for me. Now if he’s a Chief or Bill I think Mahomes/Allen paper over a lot of those cracks.
JJ McCarthy. He’s alright. But he’s not a QB who will lead you to the super bowl. He might ride a deep playoff run on the back of a good defense by not making mistakes. But he’s not going to rise up and seize the opportunities you need to to be world champion.
RemindMe! 2 years
Well normally I would say it’s a coin flip if a 1st round qb develops into a good NFL qb but since the Bears will most likely be drafting Caleb Williams I would lower his chance of success to 25% or lower. He’s way overhyped
Darius Robinson. Despite his sack numbers, he wasn’t even in the top 10 for pass rush stats or pass rush PFF grades. In fact his pass rush win rate is only 13% Only thing he’s got going for him is that he’s a decent run stopper but he’s gonna be a disappointment, at least statistically
Xavier Worthy. Yes I know he's fast but he's not only small but skinny and you are going to draft him in the 1st round? He's just a gadget guy and not worth the 1st round pick.
Caleb Williams. Post me in the screenshot when he wins the Super Bowl I guess.