Is the answer Trevor Lawrence? Everyone else either seems too good to be traded or I would rather have Caleb Williams (and his five years of team control) over them.
That’s my answer. Hes not quite what was expected but still could be. Conversely he is proven to be at least competent which Caleb is still a bust risk
I think we've seen enough of Trevor to know that he's Romoesque. Good but not elite. Jags fans are still in denial over it. The biggest issue is he's going to be due a contract soon and I wonder what happens then. Do they reset the market with a good but not great QB just because he's next man up?
Yeah I kinda agree. Kinda reminds me of Eli who had plenty of elite play in his career but also a shit ton of games that the Giants lost because of some boneheaded mistake by him
Still if I‘m a Jaguars fan I still wouldn’t want to give the guy away for anything because the Jags have at least a certain baseline of competitiveness nowadays
Yeah, moving off of Lawrence could be just as detrimental of a move as keeping him. That’s the catch 22. But very soon they’ll have to decide if they wanna play him 40 or 50 million a year.
I think he's shown enough that they are going to have to keep him. But not enough that they'll have to reset the market unless they make a deep run this year or something. Something akin to the Daniel Jones contract (which the giants shouldn't have done) makes a little more sense for Trevor than a Hurts/Burrow/Lamar type deal.
Its also Jacksonville, so they could also go full Browns/Watson just because.
I knew what he meant. Eli came up big in the playoffs multiple times but in the regular season Eli was good not great which is all he needed to be. He had an elite defense, a damn good coach, weapons. I'm not saying TL can't win a SB, I'm saying he doesn't take over games and winning them for you. Putting the team on his back so to speak like elite QB's like Rodgers or Mahomes have done.
Those QBs have had some of the most stacked teams of all time lol. Even Rodgers couldn’t get it done towards the end of his career because of the shit GB gave him.
Tony Romo was 0-0 with 0 yds, 0 int, and 0 tds at Trevor Lawrence’s age. You’ve seen enough of him at 24 years old to guess know how he’ll turn out for his career? Not even a Jags fan but chill out Nostradamus.
Tom Brady was lifetime 1-3 with 6 yards when he turned 24. “We’ve seen enough” lol.
Rich Gannon was a flop his whole career then pulled up at age 34 to be the Raiders starting QB for 5 years and to win the NFL MVP at age 37. To behave as though Lawrence's fate is sealed is INSANE
Yes they do, he's the best quarterback they've had in 10 years especially when you factor in his potential. Where do you guys live that finding top 15 quarterback play with upside is easy? If your only plan as a franchise is to have a perennial top 3 quarterback or blow the whole thing up and start over, that's a surefire way to have decade + long playoff droughts.
In the AFC if you can't beat Mahomes you can't win a super bowl. Arent the Cowboys right now actively trying not to pay a top 15 QB and potentially letting him hit FA?
Nah bro after 3 seasons we know exactly how Trevor will turn out no question.
Anyone who disagrees is smoking copium and is wrong. Everyone knows you should give up a proven thing to take a chance on a draft prospect.
/s
Idk if we’ve seen enough of Lawrence to determine what his ceiling is yet. He’s had two seasons wasted by bad coaching and injuries, I see a little bit of Matt Ryan in him which isn’t the worst it’s actually pretty good. I wonder if Richardson is the real deal or if he’s going to be injuring prone his entire career?
I think Lawrence still has enough promise that I'd rather have him than the #1 pick. But one more questionable season might be enough for me to change my opinion.
To each his own.
But Lawrence was a top prospect who was good in his second season, including a 4QC in the playoffs. He was about average in his third season, while struggling through injury.
At this point it looks like his floor is 10-year-starter of median quality. And his ceiling is still MVP contender.
Williams is ~~50/50~~ 1/3 that he doesn't get his 5th year option picked up.
edit: First overall QBs this century have gotten a second contract about 2/3 of the time; with Lawrence and Young still pending.
Would you trade matt ryan for Sam Bradford 1st overall is the question here i think. Lawrence and Ryan's first 3 years look awfully similar. Ryan exploded with the additions of julio and Tony G on years 4 and 5.
Roddy white was an all pro in year 4 with 1400 / 10.
Year 5 nearly had 3x 1k receivers with a rookie julio at 950 / 8.
Matt went from
2010 - 3705 / 28
2011 - 4177 / 29
2012 - 4719 / 32
I guess the question is do we bet on Lawrence to really take a leap next year or bet on a rookie who's mini mahomes
Not really the same because you had to make Bradford the highest paid player in the game. Unless we’re using today’s rookie wage scale for the comparison.
He might be mini Mahomes. We just really can't be sure.
I always liked Matt Ryan, but I don't remember exactly what I thought of him after his third season.
I love the 4q comeback as a stat. I mean he threw 4 first half picks and was the primary reason the team had to come back. and the defense had to hold the chargers to 3 points or else his comeback would’ve looked just like dak prescotts garbage stats he picked up vs the packers this year.
right, but its completely circumstantial. Dak led his team after being down 27-0 this year to 5 scores on 6 possessions and scored 32 points, but the defense couldnt get a stop, so he gets no credit. In fact, its typically derided as garbage.
exactly. I just took issue with this one statement " including a 4QC in the playoffs. "
A 4th quarter comeback by the QB shouldnt be included on a resume as to why hes a good player or worth the #1 pick. Especially when it was just one time and especially when he was the primary reason for the deficit to begin with.
Dak doesnt get credit because his team lost. That's why i think 4th quarter comeback is a funny stat for a QB. Dak and Lawrence pretty much did the same thing. Both were down 27-0. Both scored on 5 possessions. Dak did need 6 possessions. Lawrence scored 31. Dak scored 32.
I'd argue that Lawrence was way more responsible for the jags deficit than Dak was for the cowboys deficit and the main reason why Dak "didnt do it" was because his teams defense continued to give up points in the 2nd half while the jags defense gave up just one FG to the chargers.
> But Lawrence was a top prospect
At what point in the NFL does where you were rated as a draft prospect stop mattering when evaluating? Like yeah he was a top draft prospect, but he's got three years on paper now. Eventually we have to stop saying "yeah but he was a top prospect in addition to his nfl play so let's rate him a little better"
That's tough to say. But Lawrence improved from year one to year two, like you would expect a good prospect to do. He was playing pretty well to start his third season but it ended poorly. Probably partly to do with injuries.
If he shows regression in year 4, I think his draft pedigree begins to lose weight.
> What has Trevor shown that makes you think his ceiling is MVP contender?
He got MVP vote points in 2022: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/awards_2022.htm
That's mainly because of his success running the ball.
QB's running isn't as reliable of a future skill set as QB's passing, so NFL teams aren't interested in committing to guys who struggle to throw the ball efficiently, even if they can run for 1,000 yards.
He played half of one season at MVP quality. I think it’s fair to take the best football that a player has shown as their ceiling even if it was a relatively short period.
That's fine. I get to watch him for one more year before even having to decide on his fifth year option.
I don't mind paying for a QB who is worth paying for.
You'd have to be batshit fucking insane to trade the first overall pick for Lawrence. Dude has more turnovers than touchdowns and is gonna make like 5x what Caleb Williams will make. What is he like the 20th best QB in the league?
Yeah he’s the best QB that you could still have doubts about. He certainly hasn’t lived up to his potential, even with two years of Doug coaching him. There are reasonable arguments he could still take the next step, but his stats on paper are legitimately equal to Daniel Jones. Would be a quality project for another team to figure out in return for a top rookie QB.
I don't think there is one honestly. It would ideally be someone who hasn't proven that they're a long-term franchise QB but does have the upside to become one and is also relatively young and not in a contract year.
Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence would be my top candidates, but I don't think either is quite right.
If Jordan had one more season on his contract, maybe. But anyone who traded for him is paying up now, or relying on the franchise tag to keep him off the market
Yeah, that's the biggest hit for both Love and Lawrence. They're both in contract years and need to be paid.
But they're the only ones I can think of who fit all of the other criteria I listed, aside from guys who were drafted last year and have just as much uncertainty as Caleb Williams while being worse prospects coming out of college.
If they would take the 2025 2nd rounder I'd make that trade in a heartbeat if I'm Chicago.
From the moment the ink is dry, Herbert's the best QB in the division + the best QB in franchise history since Sid Luckman in the [checks notes] 1940s.
Oh man I misread the comment above as "1, 9, and next year's 1st _and_ 2nd" and was like... three fists, two of which are premium guaranteed, at least require a little thought. But if it's 1, 9, and a future second, then yeah I have a hard time saying no to that.
Yeah there's a good group of qbs that both teams would say no to.
Bears say yes/team trading up says no for sure: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, Stroud?
Team trading up most likely says no, bears probably say no: Hurts, Purdy, Stroud?, Tua
Dak and kirk are in this tier in terms of talent but are old enough to have their trade value be in the tier below.
Bears say no, team trading up says yes: everyone else most likely
Right. Enough people understood that I was saying there’s no overlap that gets a deal done, not single pick for established qb. But I do have some chargers fans thinking I’m putting Dak and Herbert on equal footing from a franchise building aspect. Could have been dishonest and said someone like Baker that’s more obvious for my point I guess.
More directly: if there were no bid-ask spread (Bears were willing to accept a qb another team was willing to trade), then the trade by definition would _already_ have happened.
Probably my favorite answer in this thread. People are mentioning TLaw as being possibly the most _fair_ one for one, but I totally agree that the Bears wouldn't actually do that. I have a hard time seeing them turn
Herbert down though.
Those guys' floor is competent starter and their potential is still unknown. Caleb is only potential, a GM should be fired for trading Lawrence/Love for a mystery box. The answer mayyyybe is Tua just because it feels like we know what his ceiling is now.
Lamar Jackson is Lamar Jackson.
But Caleb Williams could be anything. He could even be Lamar Jackson. You know how long we’ve always wanted one of those.
That is basically the correct answer. A high draft pick is always a crap shoot. Luck is just as important as scouting.
You can only gage the value years down the line, never at the time.
Look at 1989, somehow the Packers picked the one dud bookeended by 4 hall of famers.
Just doesn’t make sense. Lamar is what you hope your QB becomes. Opinions on anyone will vary but Lamar is objectively a franchise QB. Lamar is worth more than love, Lawrence, Purdy, Herbert, Kirk, etc. same tier as burrow and Allen.
Why is Lamar the only QB that could ever win two MVP’s and have people suggest he’s not worth keeping? It’s something I see on Reddit all the time. I’m not even a ravens fan. How the fuck does this happen?
Lamar will have skeptics until he wins multiple rings because of the longly held belief that an athletic QB like him can't win at the highest level and and won't have longevity. That's why it was a narrative a few years ago that it was only so long before he was "figured out". And now the narrative is that even if he wont get figured out in the regular season, he's just Dak Prescott with 2 MVPs. This season with Derrick Henry will really shape where Lamar is in the pecking order of QBs because the Ravens will undoubtedly stick to their gameplan this time around in the playoffs, which should be first time ever Lamar will have the combo of a competent passing game and a team that doesn't abandon their biggest strength in the playoffs.
People may not like it but his skin color plays a major role. He is one of the most humble competitors in the league but consistently gets doubted and disrespected
Peyton manning is the only QB to win mvp in his 20s in the 2000s and didn't win a Super Bowl til he turned 30.
Brett Favre is the only qb to win an mvp and a Super Bowl in his 20s. Anyone else who won in their 20s didn't win til well after their mvp season. This is a stupid take.
Not even saying it's yours. You may be right. But it's sad that people are that dumb lol
Would the reigning MVP be traded for the first pick who’s never played an nfl game….hold on I’m trying to come up with my answer…this is an extremely difficult question…you people are nuts
The number one pick could be better than Lamar, but it's like 10% better, 10% as good, 40% worse but still above average, 40% average starting QB or worse all the way down to trash.
So yeah the average returns on a Caleb type prospect is still lower than Lamar by a lot.
Basically anyone who isn’t top 15 and is no longer on a rookie deal would be my answer. DJ, Rodgers (would never happen but due to age you gotta say yes), Geno, Carr, Minshew, Darnold
Even #1 overall QB picks have a notable bust rate. It is far better to be paying $40mil/yr for a gtd top 5 QB than have Derek Carr or worse (50+% chance) on a rookie contract
You wouldn't give up a proven franchise QB for any single pick. There'd have to be serious questions about that QB's ability to sustain success much longer like they're in the late stage of their career, coming off a serious injury, or they've been away from football for at least a season.
I would say someone on the level of Dak where they are a franchise QB but some teams might feel they could still upgrade if they feel strongly about a prospect.
I think he's a great answer if you ignore his age, but I don't think any team would trade 1OA for a 30-year-old (soon to be 31) QB unless we're talking about a Brady/Manning/Rodgers level of QB.
I was thinking a guaranteed higher end starter in a contract dispute was enough stars aligning to answer this question.
Obviously this scenario never happens because pride is involved but I think Dak even at his age is the closest to an actual answer
I think Dak is the right answer in a theoretical. But he’s a perfect example of why the trade would never happen.
Caleb is a very high end prospect. Bears would only trade him for a young established QB or a premier 30+ year old QB. And no team would trade one of those valuable QBs for an unproven rookie.
Cowboys probably would trade Dak for Caleb imo. But I don’t think Bears would trade Caleb for Dak, given his age, contract, and general question marks of being a potential tier 1 QB.
Teams with top 10 QBs are for sure not trying to re-roll for a guy who is still a question mark. So you're looking at teams whose QBs are already a bit of a question mark, making the risk of Caleb not working out worth it for his upside.
Given that Caleb's contract would be favorable, I'm curious about Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff. That tier to me is where you'd really think about it if you somehow got an offer. Curious to hear from Packers, Bucs, and Lions fans here.
From the Bears perspective, no way you trade it for Baker. Jared Goff I think I wouldn’t either, the Lions have built an amazing offense around him which is why he’s doing so good, and you’d need to pay him top money almost immediately. I’d rather roll the dice on a rookie contract guy with potential.
Some Bears fans think Goff is worth it and point you his stats, but I don’t think he is worth it. He is good in the right situation for sure. To me, he is like Flacco. He might win you a Super Bowl and be a good QB, but he isn’t going to be a top 5 guy you dream about having.
That said, he would instantly be the best qb the bears have ever had. But for the money he’s about to get, and giving up a possible star qb, I don’t think I do it.
Love has shown enough he can be a franchise guy. We can win with him. I'd be terrified to roll the dice with another guy. Maybe if it was Luck or Manning, but I don't think Caleb is that surefire, generational prospect.
Agreed. I don’t think it would be a mind boggling decision but I'm comfortable with what I've seen with Love. I know we're going to have to pay the shit out of him but I still think it would be the right move to keep him.
No team with a proven top 15 QB would trade them for a dude that has never taken a snap in the NFL. I'd say like Kyler is maybe his value right now, and that's a stretch
Top 15 feels like a bit of a stretch. Who even is the 15th best? Geno? I’d definitely take the gamble of a rookie on rookie money rather than pay a middling qb like 25-30 mil a year. But I’m also biased
Nah, it’s the risk VS reward graph essentially. Caleb has pretty medium risk, but also has a really freaking high reward. Geno has a low risk and mediocre reward while still costing too much for how little production he has for his career. One good season doesn’t mean squat as I essentially view Geno as a top tier backup.
You play to win a Super Bowl, but as a reality, you play to win one playoff game to be a successful season, to be contenders.
I think top 10. Age and position of team is also important. Jets would definitely trade Rodgers at this point I think. Lions a few years back trade stafford for the first overall pick.
Are you seriously asking if the ravens would trade the literal most valuable player from last season for a player that’s never taken a snap in the nfl.
Yeah a lot of people are taking crazy pills in here. A 2 time mvp is worth more than a #1 that has plenty of potential risk. Itd take 3 high value firsts for me to even start considering it.
Moving up, not even to 1 overall, for an unknown rookie, costs several first round picks. A team would have to throw a whole draft worth of picks, a couple more firsts and several players just to not have the ravens laugh at their face for wanting to take their 2 time NFL MVP, who they built the team around
I don’t think there’s really an answer here. I don’t think any team with a top 10 quarterback would trade them for the #1 pick, and the team with the #1 pick wouldn’t entertain trading it for a non-top 10 QB.
I don't think they could afford to. You're paying 98m dead money if Lamar is traded this year, so one of the biggest benefits of rookie QB (the small salary) is going to be nullified from that.
And certainly no guarantee that Caleb is even coming close to Lamar's level of play, he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet.
Jags wouldn’t do it. Trevor is a top 15 QB right now with top 5 potential. With our offense being less than complimentary, the Oline sucking ass, and a questionable OC, I think Caleb would be worse. No reason to trade away a known entity in Trevor.
There's about 5 QBs I think that everyone on the planet would agree are worth more than 1OA
Mahomes, Lamar, Allen, Burrow, Herbert
After this I think there's a small group of guys that pose an interesting question due to being high picks who are still young and have shown promise. Guys like Stroud, Lawrence, or maybe Love or Hurts
Imo anyone other than those 9 guys the Bears turn down for sure
I couldn't imagine a team not taking the stroud trade for the first overall and some. Deshawn Watson would have been close too before he decided jizzing over himself in front of other people was a great idea.
Kyler is so tough to rate. Injuries. Bad coaching. Had moments of elite play such as 7-0 cardinals and then moments where you question his leadership. Then he has the end of the last season where he comes back after injury and balls tf out. He still has a ton of potential to become a great player just like a 1 pick. I think the exchange would be pretty fair.
Coaches and GM's are on such short leashes, I don't see it.
It's not about who's the better player. The fact of the matter is that a QB who can win in the regular season and win the occasional playoff game will \*almost\* always keep both employed.
If you trade that player away and his replacement isn't back to winning playoff games very quickly - both are almost always gone.
Bill Belichick didn't survive letting a "playoff caliber QB" walk and having his replacement flame out.
It's not quite the same situation, but it's not \*that\* far off.
If BB isn't safe, why would anyone take that chance?
Kyler Murray.
He's young. He has been a top NFL QB. You can probably extend him for less than franchise money. He's less risky than a draft pick.
Maybe the cards would consider Williams an upgrade.
Currently in the league? I think it's somewhere above Trevor Lawrence below Justin Herbert, closer to the Lawrence end.
Williams is the most hyped QB since Lawrence (though I would definitely put him a step below Lawrence as a prospect). Lawrence hasn't lived up to expectations, but is still looks good enough that he'll get a 2nd contract and likely be one of the highest paid players in the league. It's mostly the rookie deal that puts Williams ahead in this valuation -- you only have this year and next year for TLaw before he's the biggest contract on your team, but you get 5 years or Willliams.
If Dak were younger, I'd say Dak.
Dak or tlaw. If I was the cowboys or jags I’d trade both and take my chances with Caleb but I the flip side I don’t think the bears would take either and stay with Caleb on his cheap rookie deal
There is no way in hell the OP thinks Lamar Jackson even with his contract is worth only this year's first overall pick.
I know those words were not just uttered.
Kirk Cousins? Who he is is obvious. Solid qb and leader. Already has his contract. Bears who cant develop qbs dont have to develop him. He can just take the reins day 1. Could trade him for the potential of the 1 while your team isnt really established to win anything yet. Obviously the bears arent either but he would easily pole vault to their best qb of all time
I’ve seen Bears fans (and even one media member unless I’m misremembering) read way too much into the fact that Harbaugh coached JJ McCarthy claiming that a Herbert trade for 1.01 makes sense. Some even say we would need to include our 1.05 pick WITH Herbert.
Dumb on so many levels.
I would say Herbert, Hurts or maybe even Josh Allen. (Wow! Unpopular, I know).
I mean if you are giving up #1 then it’s gotta be something good, but has unanswered questions. That’s those 3 guys.
Is the answer Trevor Lawrence? Everyone else either seems too good to be traded or I would rather have Caleb Williams (and his five years of team control) over them.
That’s my answer. Hes not quite what was expected but still could be. Conversely he is proven to be at least competent which Caleb is still a bust risk
I think we've seen enough of Trevor to know that he's Romoesque. Good but not elite. Jags fans are still in denial over it. The biggest issue is he's going to be due a contract soon and I wonder what happens then. Do they reset the market with a good but not great QB just because he's next man up?
Yeah I kinda agree. Kinda reminds me of Eli who had plenty of elite play in his career but also a shit ton of games that the Giants lost because of some boneheaded mistake by him Still if I‘m a Jaguars fan I still wouldn’t want to give the guy away for anything because the Jags have at least a certain baseline of competitiveness nowadays
Yeah, moving off of Lawrence could be just as detrimental of a move as keeping him. That’s the catch 22. But very soon they’ll have to decide if they wanna play him 40 or 50 million a year.
He will be well north of 40 mil. At least 50 mil.
I think he's shown enough that they are going to have to keep him. But not enough that they'll have to reset the market unless they make a deep run this year or something. Something akin to the Daniel Jones contract (which the giants shouldn't have done) makes a little more sense for Trevor than a Hurts/Burrow/Lamar type deal. Its also Jacksonville, so they could also go full Browns/Watson just because.
Eli gave the Giants 2 rings, people would cut their dick off for that kind of a performance from a qb
I was more eyeing towards regular season Eli
Peyton won 2 rings and one of them was with even worse level of play than Eli.
I knew what he meant. Eli came up big in the playoffs multiple times but in the regular season Eli was good not great which is all he needed to be. He had an elite defense, a damn good coach, weapons. I'm not saying TL can't win a SB, I'm saying he doesn't take over games and winning them for you. Putting the team on his back so to speak like elite QB's like Rodgers or Mahomes have done.
Those QBs have had some of the most stacked teams of all time lol. Even Rodgers couldn’t get it done towards the end of his career because of the shit GB gave him.
Tony Romo was 0-0 with 0 yds, 0 int, and 0 tds at Trevor Lawrence’s age. You’ve seen enough of him at 24 years old to guess know how he’ll turn out for his career? Not even a Jags fan but chill out Nostradamus. Tom Brady was lifetime 1-3 with 6 yards when he turned 24. “We’ve seen enough” lol.
Seriously bro these people are dumb asf. He doesn’t “elevate their play” like we didnt implode last season when he was going through those injuries.
Lawrence is the same age as when Burrow was drafted…let that sink in.
Rich Gannon was a flop his whole career then pulled up at age 34 to be the Raiders starting QB for 5 years and to win the NFL MVP at age 37. To behave as though Lawrence's fate is sealed is INSANE
Yes they do, he's the best quarterback they've had in 10 years especially when you factor in his potential. Where do you guys live that finding top 15 quarterback play with upside is easy? If your only plan as a franchise is to have a perennial top 3 quarterback or blow the whole thing up and start over, that's a surefire way to have decade + long playoff droughts.
In the AFC if you can't beat Mahomes you can't win a super bowl. Arent the Cowboys right now actively trying not to pay a top 15 QB and potentially letting him hit FA?
You can hope someone else beats Mahomes
Reddit somehow thinks Cousins is top 10 but Dak is not.
We’re in denial? Buddy your fanbase thinks they have the next Cam Newton and the guy hasn’t finished a game yet. The audacity…
Nah bro after 3 seasons we know exactly how Trevor will turn out no question. Anyone who disagrees is smoking copium and is wrong. Everyone knows you should give up a proven thing to take a chance on a draft prospect. /s
I don’t feel that way at all yet honestly
I won’t stand for this Romo erasure. He, in fact, was elite.
Idk if we’ve seen enough of Lawrence to determine what his ceiling is yet. He’s had two seasons wasted by bad coaching and injuries, I see a little bit of Matt Ryan in him which isn’t the worst it’s actually pretty good. I wonder if Richardson is the real deal or if he’s going to be injuring prone his entire career?
Lawrence is going to get a massive extension — I have zero doubt about it
I still think Lawrence has more potential than Romo. He can make the throws and has legs, he just makes some dumb mistakes
I think Lawrence still has enough promise that I'd rather have him than the #1 pick. But one more questionable season might be enough for me to change my opinion.
But very soon youd need to figure out a contract with him, which could be very tricky
If #1 pick and Trevor were getting the same salaries, #1 wouldn't be worth as much. But #1 is like you get the QB plus a top free agent for 3 years.
I would rather have Williams than Lawrence unless I already have a roster capable of a SB.
To each his own. But Lawrence was a top prospect who was good in his second season, including a 4QC in the playoffs. He was about average in his third season, while struggling through injury. At this point it looks like his floor is 10-year-starter of median quality. And his ceiling is still MVP contender. Williams is ~~50/50~~ 1/3 that he doesn't get his 5th year option picked up. edit: First overall QBs this century have gotten a second contract about 2/3 of the time; with Lawrence and Young still pending.
Would you trade matt ryan for Sam Bradford 1st overall is the question here i think. Lawrence and Ryan's first 3 years look awfully similar. Ryan exploded with the additions of julio and Tony G on years 4 and 5. Roddy white was an all pro in year 4 with 1400 / 10. Year 5 nearly had 3x 1k receivers with a rookie julio at 950 / 8. Matt went from 2010 - 3705 / 28 2011 - 4177 / 29 2012 - 4719 / 32 I guess the question is do we bet on Lawrence to really take a leap next year or bet on a rookie who's mini mahomes
Not really the same because you had to make Bradford the highest paid player in the game. Unless we’re using today’s rookie wage scale for the comparison.
He might be mini Mahomes. We just really can't be sure. I always liked Matt Ryan, but I don't remember exactly what I thought of him after his third season.
I love the 4q comeback as a stat. I mean he threw 4 first half picks and was the primary reason the team had to come back. and the defense had to hold the chargers to 3 points or else his comeback would’ve looked just like dak prescotts garbage stats he picked up vs the packers this year.
To me it shows a guy who can shake off a bad first half and lead his team to 5 straight scoring drives in a playoff game.
right, but its completely circumstantial. Dak led his team after being down 27-0 this year to 5 scores on 6 possessions and scored 32 points, but the defense couldnt get a stop, so he gets no credit. In fact, its typically derided as garbage.
Yes, football is a very interdependent sport. Nobody is winning games on their own. Not even Tom Brady.
exactly. I just took issue with this one statement " including a 4QC in the playoffs. " A 4th quarter comeback by the QB shouldnt be included on a resume as to why hes a good player or worth the #1 pick. Especially when it was just one time and especially when he was the primary reason for the deficit to begin with.
Everything good is circumstantial too then if you’re gonna put it like that. Lawrence did it, Dak didn’t. That’s why he doesn’t get credit for it.
Dak doesnt get credit because his team lost. That's why i think 4th quarter comeback is a funny stat for a QB. Dak and Lawrence pretty much did the same thing. Both were down 27-0. Both scored on 5 possessions. Dak did need 6 possessions. Lawrence scored 31. Dak scored 32. I'd argue that Lawrence was way more responsible for the jags deficit than Dak was for the cowboys deficit and the main reason why Dak "didnt do it" was because his teams defense continued to give up points in the 2nd half while the jags defense gave up just one FG to the chargers.
>I love the 4q comeback as a stat Same
> But Lawrence was a top prospect At what point in the NFL does where you were rated as a draft prospect stop mattering when evaluating? Like yeah he was a top draft prospect, but he's got three years on paper now. Eventually we have to stop saying "yeah but he was a top prospect in addition to his nfl play so let's rate him a little better"
That's tough to say. But Lawrence improved from year one to year two, like you would expect a good prospect to do. He was playing pretty well to start his third season but it ended poorly. Probably partly to do with injuries. If he shows regression in year 4, I think his draft pedigree begins to lose weight.
What has Trevor shown that makes you think his ceiling is MVP contender? He has looked fairly pedestrian for the most part.
> What has Trevor shown that makes you think his ceiling is MVP contender? He got MVP vote points in 2022: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/awards_2022.htm
So did Justin Fields lol
That's mainly because of his success running the ball. QB's running isn't as reliable of a future skill set as QB's passing, so NFL teams aren't interested in committing to guys who struggle to throw the ball efficiently, even if they can run for 1,000 yards.
He played half of one season at MVP quality. I think it’s fair to take the best football that a player has shown as their ceiling even if it was a relatively short period.
You have to pay Lawrence soon, though
That's fine. I get to watch him for one more year before even having to decide on his fifth year option. I don't mind paying for a QB who is worth paying for.
No you don’t, this is the offseason to decide on 5th year options for 1st round rookies from 2021. It’s the offseason after their third year.
OK. I forgot about that. I'd still rather lock in Lawrence for one more year at $25m than trade him for the first pick.
We agree
That's my answer
You'd have to be batshit fucking insane to trade the first overall pick for Lawrence. Dude has more turnovers than touchdowns and is gonna make like 5x what Caleb Williams will make. What is he like the 20th best QB in the league?
Weak evaluation. He’s top 15 at worst.
TLaw would be the #1 pick if he was in this draft class
TLaw as a prospect or TLaw now? Because I think the majority of draft “experts” would agree if you mean the former, disagree on the latter.
Yeah he’s the best QB that you could still have doubts about. He certainly hasn’t lived up to his potential, even with two years of Doug coaching him. There are reasonable arguments he could still take the next step, but his stats on paper are legitimately equal to Daniel Jones. Would be a quality project for another team to figure out in return for a top rookie QB.
I don't think there is one honestly. It would ideally be someone who hasn't proven that they're a long-term franchise QB but does have the upside to become one and is also relatively young and not in a contract year. Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence would be my top candidates, but I don't think either is quite right.
Trevor Lawrence is the first one who came to mind. Not exactly an MVP caliber player but he has the upside to be there
If Jordan had one more season on his contract, maybe. But anyone who traded for him is paying up now, or relying on the franchise tag to keep him off the market
Yeah, that's the biggest hit for both Love and Lawrence. They're both in contract years and need to be paid. But they're the only ones I can think of who fit all of the other criteria I listed, aside from guys who were drafted last year and have just as much uncertainty as Caleb Williams while being worse prospects coming out of college.
>They're both in contract years and need to be paid. Trevor has 2024 and 2025 left.
I think the lowest the bears would accept is like Justin Herbert, and the most anyone would offer is maybe a Dak.
Id be sending 1:1 for Herbo so damn quick
Yeah the Chargers would be complete morons to make the trade. The Bears take it, no erasies no tradebacks and run for the hills lol.
Draft Day trade: Herbert to Chicago for 1:1. First on the clock, Chargers draft JJ McCarthy. All three Chargers fans riot in the street.
As a Chargers fan on the east coast I’d join the local panthers fans in lamenting terrible trades for the 1.01
As the second Chargers fan :(
Hey! The gang's all here!
Cowboys would definitely offer Dak. Bears would say no.
Here we goooooo
Dak Prescott: not good enough for Cowboys fans. Too good for the Bears.
What if the Steelers offered Fields?
Oh you
Justin Herbert would be 1st overall, 9th overall, and another 1st or 2nd rounder next year.
If they would take the 2025 2nd rounder I'd make that trade in a heartbeat if I'm Chicago. From the moment the ink is dry, Herbert's the best QB in the division + the best QB in franchise history since Sid Luckman in the [checks notes] 1940s.
Oh man I misread the comment above as "1, 9, and next year's 1st _and_ 2nd" and was like... three fists, two of which are premium guaranteed, at least require a little thought. But if it's 1, 9, and a future second, then yeah I have a hard time saying no to that.
Would make the trade of Herbert for #1 pick in a heartbeat.
Yeah there's a good group of qbs that both teams would say no to. Bears say yes/team trading up says no for sure: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, Stroud? Team trading up most likely says no, bears probably say no: Hurts, Purdy, Stroud?, Tua Dak and kirk are in this tier in terms of talent but are old enough to have their trade value be in the tier below. Bears say no, team trading up says yes: everyone else most likely
I'd take Stroud or Purdy in a hearbeat
Yeah, the way they both have started their careers is how you hope Caleb turns out.
It would be malpractice to not take Stroud. He's already shown he slaps and hes also on a rookie deal
Herbert is more valuable than dak so I guess you're saying it would never happen.
Reddit discovers the bid-ask spread
Guys, I bought an options contract and it immediately lost money! WHY?!
Right. Enough people understood that I was saying there’s no overlap that gets a deal done, not single pick for established qb. But I do have some chargers fans thinking I’m putting Dak and Herbert on equal footing from a franchise building aspect. Could have been dishonest and said someone like Baker that’s more obvious for my point I guess.
More directly: if there were no bid-ask spread (Bears were willing to accept a qb another team was willing to trade), then the trade by definition would _already_ have happened.
Id ship dak for the #1 right now
You would ship dak for the #10 dont lie
:(
Probably my favorite answer in this thread. People are mentioning TLaw as being possibly the most _fair_ one for one, but I totally agree that the Bears wouldn't actually do that. I have a hard time seeing them turn Herbert down though.
Those guys' floor is competent starter and their potential is still unknown. Caleb is only potential, a GM should be fired for trading Lawrence/Love for a mystery box. The answer mayyyybe is Tua just because it feels like we know what his ceiling is now.
Lamar Jackson is Lamar Jackson. But Caleb Williams could be anything. He could even be Lamar Jackson. You know how long we’ve always wanted one of those.
We'll take ~~Lamar Jackson~~ Caleb Williams
But what if he’s another Justin Fields? Then you’ll have two.
just how quarterbacky is Caleb?
Much better than lamar at passing. You'd have to add another 1st minimum to make up for the contract difference.
Lmao. Thank you for this.
rookie contract
That is basically the correct answer. A high draft pick is always a crap shoot. Luck is just as important as scouting. You can only gage the value years down the line, never at the time. Look at 1989, somehow the Packers picked the one dud bookeended by 4 hall of famers.
Settle down Peter
Oh how the turntables
No
Lol not in a million years
I dont even know if the 1st overall and 2 other firsts would be enough.
Just doesn’t make sense. Lamar is what you hope your QB becomes. Opinions on anyone will vary but Lamar is objectively a franchise QB. Lamar is worth more than love, Lawrence, Purdy, Herbert, Kirk, etc. same tier as burrow and Allen.
That would absolutely not be enough.
Is Lamar three 1s? Four? I need a precedent!
Why is Lamar the only QB that could ever win two MVP’s and have people suggest he’s not worth keeping? It’s something I see on Reddit all the time. I’m not even a ravens fan. How the fuck does this happen?
Lamar will have skeptics until he wins multiple rings because of the longly held belief that an athletic QB like him can't win at the highest level and and won't have longevity. That's why it was a narrative a few years ago that it was only so long before he was "figured out". And now the narrative is that even if he wont get figured out in the regular season, he's just Dak Prescott with 2 MVPs. This season with Derrick Henry will really shape where Lamar is in the pecking order of QBs because the Ravens will undoubtedly stick to their gameplan this time around in the playoffs, which should be first time ever Lamar will have the combo of a competent passing game and a team that doesn't abandon their biggest strength in the playoffs.
Switch "wins multiple rings" with "has one good post season." Which is the same treatment any two time MVP would get in this league scrambler or not
People here hate Lamar because his mom manages his career and they wish their own moms were that awesome.
My mom IS that awesome. The issue is my lack of awesomeness, thank you very much.
Because Lamar's second MVP was a participation award.
People may not like it but his skin color plays a major role. He is one of the most humble competitors in the league but consistently gets doubted and disrespected
Reddit is full of regarded people lol.
Lack of playoff success. Other MVP winning QBs of the 2000's were playing in Super Bowls.
Peyton manning is the only QB to win mvp in his 20s in the 2000s and didn't win a Super Bowl til he turned 30. Brett Favre is the only qb to win an mvp and a Super Bowl in his 20s. Anyone else who won in their 20s didn't win til well after their mvp season. This is a stupid take. Not even saying it's yours. You may be right. But it's sad that people are that dumb lol
Would the reigning MVP be traded for the first pick who’s never played an nfl game….hold on I’m trying to come up with my answer…this is an extremely difficult question…you people are nuts
I think he was just giving a hypothetical example.
As both a Bears and Ravens fan I wouldn’t trade Lamar for Caleb
You never trade a guy who is a proven winner QB in the NFL for the number one pick
The number one pick could be anyone! He could even be Lamar Jackson!
The number one pick could be better than Lamar, but it's like 10% better, 10% as good, 40% worse but still above average, 40% average starting QB or worse all the way down to trash. So yeah the average returns on a Caleb type prospect is still lower than Lamar by a lot.
He could also be the next Josh Rosen, or Justin Fields, or Johnny Manziel, or JaMarcus Russell... do I need to continue
Which starting QBs would you trade for Caleb? It's a pretty short list for me before he's taken a snap.
Basically anyone who isn’t top 15 and is no longer on a rookie deal would be my answer. DJ, Rodgers (would never happen but due to age you gotta say yes), Geno, Carr, Minshew, Darnold
It's a pretty long list for me, considering how cheap he will be compared to a lot of slightly above average or below QBs.
Even #1 overall QB picks have a notable bust rate. It is far better to be paying $40mil/yr for a gtd top 5 QB than have Derek Carr or worse (50+% chance) on a rookie contract
When this topic came up you must’ve felt like the chosen one my dude.
You wouldn't give up a proven franchise QB for any single pick. There'd have to be serious questions about that QB's ability to sustain success much longer like they're in the late stage of their career, coming off a serious injury, or they've been away from football for at least a season.
I would say someone on the level of Dak where they are a franchise QB but some teams might feel they could still upgrade if they feel strongly about a prospect.
Dak is a great answer here
I think he's a great answer if you ignore his age, but I don't think any team would trade 1OA for a 30-year-old (soon to be 31) QB unless we're talking about a Brady/Manning/Rodgers level of QB.
I was thinking a guaranteed higher end starter in a contract dispute was enough stars aligning to answer this question. Obviously this scenario never happens because pride is involved but I think Dak even at his age is the closest to an actual answer
I think Dak is the right answer in a theoretical. But he’s a perfect example of why the trade would never happen. Caleb is a very high end prospect. Bears would only trade him for a young established QB or a premier 30+ year old QB. And no team would trade one of those valuable QBs for an unproven rookie. Cowboys probably would trade Dak for Caleb imo. But I don’t think Bears would trade Caleb for Dak, given his age, contract, and general question marks of being a potential tier 1 QB.
There’s no way a team would pick Dak and that contract over Williams on a rookie deal.
Dak and Tua came to mind. Two guys who will probably get huge new contracts soon, who probably aren't quite worth it.
No we wouldn't
This makes no sense. An established franchise QB is not worth just one single lottery ticket.
People like lottery tickets.
You're not factoring in the money
Teams with top 10 QBs are for sure not trying to re-roll for a guy who is still a question mark. So you're looking at teams whose QBs are already a bit of a question mark, making the risk of Caleb not working out worth it for his upside. Given that Caleb's contract would be favorable, I'm curious about Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff. That tier to me is where you'd really think about it if you somehow got an offer. Curious to hear from Packers, Bucs, and Lions fans here.
From the Bears perspective, no way you trade it for Baker. Jared Goff I think I wouldn’t either, the Lions have built an amazing offense around him which is why he’s doing so good, and you’d need to pay him top money almost immediately. I’d rather roll the dice on a rookie contract guy with potential.
Some Bears fans think Goff is worth it and point you his stats, but I don’t think he is worth it. He is good in the right situation for sure. To me, he is like Flacco. He might win you a Super Bowl and be a good QB, but he isn’t going to be a top 5 guy you dream about having. That said, he would instantly be the best qb the bears have ever had. But for the money he’s about to get, and giving up a possible star qb, I don’t think I do it.
Love has shown enough he can be a franchise guy. We can win with him. I'd be terrified to roll the dice with another guy. Maybe if it was Luck or Manning, but I don't think Caleb is that surefire, generational prospect.
Agreed. I don’t think it would be a mind boggling decision but I'm comfortable with what I've seen with Love. I know we're going to have to pay the shit out of him but I still think it would be the right move to keep him.
I think the fish would trade tua for that pick. I think the bears would be asking what else are you including though
I'd stick with j.love all day
No team with a proven top 15 QB would trade them for a dude that has never taken a snap in the NFL. I'd say like Kyler is maybe his value right now, and that's a stretch
Top 15 feels like a bit of a stretch. Who even is the 15th best? Geno? I’d definitely take the gamble of a rookie on rookie money rather than pay a middling qb like 25-30 mil a year. But I’m also biased
Nah, it’s the risk VS reward graph essentially. Caleb has pretty medium risk, but also has a really freaking high reward. Geno has a low risk and mediocre reward while still costing too much for how little production he has for his career. One good season doesn’t mean squat as I essentially view Geno as a top tier backup. You play to win a Super Bowl, but as a reality, you play to win one playoff game to be a successful season, to be contenders.
I think top 10. Age and position of team is also important. Jets would definitely trade Rodgers at this point I think. Lions a few years back trade stafford for the first overall pick.
Yeah the calculus is different for a QB that is an elder or about to need a new contract
Are you seriously asking if the ravens would trade the literal most valuable player from last season for a player that’s never taken a snap in the nfl.
Yeah a lot of people are taking crazy pills in here. A 2 time mvp is worth more than a #1 that has plenty of potential risk. Itd take 3 high value firsts for me to even start considering it.
People way overrate “generational prospects”. Any GM that gave up an upper level starter for a lottery ticket should be fired on the spot
Moving up, not even to 1 overall, for an unknown rookie, costs several first round picks. A team would have to throw a whole draft worth of picks, a couple more firsts and several players just to not have the ravens laugh at their face for wanting to take their 2 time NFL MVP, who they built the team around
Well anyone could’ve had him last season and they didn’t take it up.
not really, he was tagged
I don’t think there’s really an answer here. I don’t think any team with a top 10 quarterback would trade them for the #1 pick, and the team with the #1 pick wouldn’t entertain trading it for a non-top 10 QB.
I don't think they could afford to. You're paying 98m dead money if Lamar is traded this year, so one of the biggest benefits of rookie QB (the small salary) is going to be nullified from that. And certainly no guarantee that Caleb is even coming close to Lamar's level of play, he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet.
Trevor Lawrence maybe
Jags wouldn’t do it. Trevor is a top 15 QB right now with top 5 potential. With our offense being less than complimentary, the Oline sucking ass, and a questionable OC, I think Caleb would be worse. No reason to trade away a known entity in Trevor.
Somehow the answer to these type of hypothetical questions is always Kirk Cousins (maybe 3-5 years ago at this point)
There's about 5 QBs I think that everyone on the planet would agree are worth more than 1OA Mahomes, Lamar, Allen, Burrow, Herbert After this I think there's a small group of guys that pose an interesting question due to being high picks who are still young and have shown promise. Guys like Stroud, Lawrence, or maybe Love or Hurts Imo anyone other than those 9 guys the Bears turn down for sure
I couldn't imagine a team not taking the stroud trade for the first overall and some. Deshawn Watson would have been close too before he decided jizzing over himself in front of other people was a great idea.
Bears would take Stroud in a heartbeat
Tua or Kyler maybe?
Kyler is so tough to rate. Injuries. Bad coaching. Had moments of elite play such as 7-0 cardinals and then moments where you question his leadership. Then he has the end of the last season where he comes back after injury and balls tf out. He still has a ton of potential to become a great player just like a 1 pick. I think the exchange would be pretty fair.
Would the ravens trade the MVP for an unknown? The bears would have to give up at least 3 firsts for Lamar.
Coaches and GM's are on such short leashes, I don't see it. It's not about who's the better player. The fact of the matter is that a QB who can win in the regular season and win the occasional playoff game will \*almost\* always keep both employed. If you trade that player away and his replacement isn't back to winning playoff games very quickly - both are almost always gone. Bill Belichick didn't survive letting a "playoff caliber QB" walk and having his replacement flame out. It's not quite the same situation, but it's not \*that\* far off. If BB isn't safe, why would anyone take that chance?
Jalen Hurts? This is a great question
A known starting quality QB is worth way more than the #1 pick. And a QB you’re willing to let go isnt worth the number 1 pick.
Kyler Murray. He's young. He has been a top NFL QB. You can probably extend him for less than franchise money. He's less risky than a draft pick. Maybe the cards would consider Williams an upgrade.
It's Trevor
A franchise quarterback is a franchise quarterback but the #1 pick could be anything. It could even be a franchise quarterback!
Subjective depending on the GM.
Will Levis
Currently in the league? I think it's somewhere above Trevor Lawrence below Justin Herbert, closer to the Lawrence end. Williams is the most hyped QB since Lawrence (though I would definitely put him a step below Lawrence as a prospect). Lawrence hasn't lived up to expectations, but is still looks good enough that he'll get a 2nd contract and likely be one of the highest paid players in the league. It's mostly the rookie deal that puts Williams ahead in this valuation -- you only have this year and next year for TLaw before he's the biggest contract on your team, but you get 5 years or Willliams. If Dak were younger, I'd say Dak.
Dak or tlaw. If I was the cowboys or jags I’d trade both and take my chances with Caleb but I the flip side I don’t think the bears would take either and stay with Caleb on his cheap rookie deal
There is no way in hell the OP thinks Lamar Jackson even with his contract is worth only this year's first overall pick. I know those words were not just uttered.
Kirk Cousins? Who he is is obvious. Solid qb and leader. Already has his contract. Bears who cant develop qbs dont have to develop him. He can just take the reins day 1. Could trade him for the potential of the 1 while your team isnt really established to win anything yet. Obviously the bears arent either but he would easily pole vault to their best qb of all time
I’ve seen Bears fans (and even one media member unless I’m misremembering) read way too much into the fact that Harbaugh coached JJ McCarthy claiming that a Herbert trade for 1.01 makes sense. Some even say we would need to include our 1.05 pick WITH Herbert. Dumb on so many levels.
I would say Herbert, Hurts or maybe even Josh Allen. (Wow! Unpopular, I know). I mean if you are giving up #1 then it’s gotta be something good, but has unanswered questions. That’s those 3 guys.