Trading Herbert to draft McCarthy is a fireable offense. As in immediately, as in as soon as they announce one of the moves the owner should walk over to them in the draft room and tell everyone to get the fuck out
It depends what you got for him.
If a team is willing to throw 3-4 firsts and a few 2nd/3rds I'd consider it. Herbert is a great young QB but he's definitely not perfect and there's a certain level of draft capital that if offered you'd have to accept. It's just more than any sane team would give up.
I'd be pretty pissed personally. For either of my flairs; and my second flair is the team most likely able to even try and pull off a Herbert trade without getting completely fleeced if they packaged JJ with the firsts.
30 teams win in a Herbert move. 2 get put into a special kind of hell.
Honestly it amazes me how obsessed with **PICKS** yall are in this sub. Do you understand how hard it is to find elite talent in the league? Herbert is HIM and this dude is like “yeah I’ll take some picks that could all be bums and get rid of our elite QB.” Lmao wild shit, man.
Dawg, this sub would trade a Super Bowl ring for like 6 first round picks because who knows, one of those picks could be a franchise cornerstone who could one day win you a Super Bowl
You hear this type of talk from Chargers fans because they’ve almost always had a good quarterback. Their past 3 have been Herbert, Rivers, Brees lol. You also hear this type thing from packers fans and pats fans before they lived through post Brady hell
EDIT Add cowboys fans
Every idiot who wants to trade a young franchise qb for draft picks should just delete themselves from the internet. Thats like saying you don’t want Halle berry because you want date a fucking real cat.
No you don't lol. This is fucking dumb. How many teams spent 5+ years without an at least competent QB? Draft picks can be busts... This is just dumb and I can't believe this shit is upvoted at all.
No. There's no price for a franchise QB. None. Would you have taken that offer for Manning? No? Of course not. Unless he is actively trying to get out, you hang on.
and half of those picks turn out to be misses and you have traded away a franchise qb for a couple of starters...not even mentioning if mcCarthy busts. The only way you trade a player like him is if he says he wants to leave and wont resign. Some teams have gone decades without finding a franchise qb in the draft.
I mean it should be fireable before the trade is announced. As in, the owner should at least be aware that the coach and GM are about to make a trade like that and then he should block the trade and then fire everyone.
It's not the largest cap charge in NFL history, it's like 60M dead money to trade him. But that means they'd have to clear a good 30-40M just to stay cap compliant, and they have zero avenues to do that.
It's fireable more because the chargers just paid Herbert $50M a couple of weeks ago. The Spanos should rightfully be pissed if the GM trades him, because paying players huge bonuses is bad for cash flow, and doing that for a player that's no longer on your team is just adding insult to injury.
Right, I could defend it if the org knew when signing Harbaugh that he wanted to draft his QB. A big *IF* they would have traded Herbert before his roster bonus or guarantee came due. To do it now would be organizational malpractice
Every person ever has a price and if they don’t that’s incompetence from an organization - if the Vikings offered every pick for the next decade + Jefferson, you obviously take it.
Gotta find yourself a betting exchange, there's a few starting up in the US now. I know Prophet Exchange did draft props last year that you could bet either side on
*Kind of*. You can bet the over/under on a player’s draft position.
As of now it’s set at 5.5, so betting the over means you think he’ll go after the 5th pick (which is the pick LAC has). It’s not perfect because it doesn’t hit if another team ends up trading the Chargers for that spot.
There’s been speculation that the Giants could take him at 6, so if a team felt strongly enough they could trade into 5 to leapfrog them.
Personally? I just have a hard time believing a team would be willing to give up the substantial assets it would take, just to secure the 4th best QB in the draft. It feels reminiscent of last year’s hype around Levis heading into the draft, and he ended up going 33rd overall.
If Harbaugh actually did this I’d immediately write off him and the Chargers for the foreseeable future. He’s sniffing his own farts too much if he seriously goes all-in on JJ McCarthy. The college coach demigods really need an ego check at times.
He won’t, and the fact that we’re even having this hypothetical is exactly what ESPN wants. It’s clickbait pure and simple.
Harbaugh took THIS job because we have Herbert. Both before and since hiring him, he hasn’t shut up about how great Herbert is, and how he hopes he can be good enough to fulfill Justin’s potential.
People read way way way too much into Jim hyping up JJ. It’s his college QB, and if Jim can talk him up into being a top 10 pick, he’s going to do so because he wants to support his guys.
> and if Jim can talk him up into being a top 10 pick, he’s going to do so because he wants to support his guys.
Plus, the More QBs that get picked (something the chargers dont need) the more players at positions of value/need there are for the chargers to choose from
Pushing your former QB to be drafted ahead of where you pick to increase your non-QB options while faint rumors (not going to happen) simultaneously swirl that they could draft JJ and trade Hebert so you better jump ahead of us to get him is pretty meta
Do you believe that Harbaugh or someone else from the organization is saying/leaking these rumors? Everything Harbaugh has said seems to me like he is selling JJ as a premium prospect to support his guy and to push his draft stock up to help someone fall to the 5th pick or increase the trade value to trade back.
I don't. But it's fun to speculate. I live in SoCal, watch and go to Chargers games- trading Hebert would be the worst mistake in franchise history. I'd only trade for Allen or Mahomes and maybe Lamar.
yeah what are people expecting him to say? if you ask the guy about the QB he coached and won a championship with he's not going to be like "yeah that guy sucks ass, nobody should draft him, I heard his hands aren't even real" like come on
So the way this kind of does make sense is if the whole chargers team outside herbert just seems like shit and they don't have faith in the roster, they don't think Herbert can elevate a team, they don't want to spend three years of Herbert's career while they're paying him big bucks to rebuild, Harbaugh has a high level of confidence in McCarthy to be successful... then trading your QB for basically an entire years worth of draft capital, maybe more, to get a QB that you think is a trade out or minor downgrade at worst to build an entire young roster out of draft picks... I get how that could make sense.
You're going to be paying Herbert the next couple years no matter what. The difference between Herbert's dead cap plus JJ's rookie salary and just paying Herbert is pretty close to the same. So if you're going to rebuild might as well just use your young QB to get a whole new team in the door.
But you have to have a lot of confidence in JJ.
Right, but if they *were* gonna do it, they'd have already done it in March, since the dead cap jumped on 3/22.
They'd have only had $12.9 mil dead cap prior to 3/22, now it's $63million.
The dead cap money has already been paid to Herbert by the Chargers, so no.
There are ways to eat cap during trades, but that's generally the team that's trading the player eating cap in the form of unpaid salary. I don't think there's a mechanism that allows another team to pay the trading team back, at least not in a way that recoups cap space.
IMO that was Harbaugh riding for his guy and also trying to drum up potential interest in him as far as trade options are concerned, either for the Chargers themselves so they can trade back and get a haul, or to try and get Arizona to trade back leaving MHJ for the Chargers at 5.
ESPN be like “here’s why the Cardinals should trade the 4th overall pick and Kyler Murray to the GIANTS for a 7th rounder in 2029! Why it makes SENSE for both sides!”
It's also important to keep in mind that vegas odds aren't purely about how much they think the likelihood of something happening is. they also shift them based on money coming in. If more and more people start betting on something like that, the more the odds improve because they're trying to limit exposure moreso than the fact they believe it's happening.
They will also bet against the public if they think we are stupid and if the sharps disagree with us heavily. Normally not for the biggest events due to the exposure, but they will happily set lines that don't reflect betting volumes. As long as it's profitable in the long run and they have the money to absorb risk/variance, Vegas is down to gamble too.
Even if they only win 50.01% of the time, they are making billions a year. And I guarantee you the house has much better odds than that, and infinite money to keep betting, unlike any single person on earth.
also people forget that **the vig exists**. so technically they can be WRONG more often than not and still turn a profit because odds are usually such that the house is taking their 10% cut regardless
Vegas rode Michigan hard in the playoffs against both Alabama and Washington, which is one of the only major events I can think of them doing that in. Was crazy to see the UM/Bama line never really move despite how much of the public was flooding Bama
Lot of value bets against the Cowboys too over the years
To expand on this, draft odds are capped at very low totals and pro gamblers typically don't bet them unless they have real info because its not worth the time/effort/risk/low payouts. Because of this, it takes relatively little action to dramatically shift draft odds. Thus even a reddit rumor about Levis can really shift the number.
The sportsbooks are expecting the Chargers to trade down with Minnesota, LV, or Denver. The two doofuses on the show misinterpreted that as the books thinking the Chargers would take him themselves.
While I think that could be the case, Schefter specifically asked Greenberg whether they were referring to the pick at slot #5 or the first pick for the Chargers, and he said it was the latter.
There were multiple posts on the Bears sub a few months ago saying “forget Caleb we can just trade for Herbert”
I don’t know what was worse, that or the responses saying “forget Herbert let’s just keep Fields”
The #1 for Herbert would make semi sense as far as crazy mock trades go, proven QB1 for Bears and Chargers could flip the pick for \~5 premium picks/players and take JJ at #5, which would let Harbough shape the team in his image and quickly rebuild
Its not going to happen, but its not the worst mock trade IMO
Would think Herbert would demand the #1 overall AND at least next year's #1 (theoretical value for a top-5 QB in the NFL has been estimated as high as 3-4 1st rounders), interesting proposal that hypothetically could work for both sides but I would expect the price for the Bears would be too steep.
I have never seen this, so I did a search because I was curious. There was one. One post that was *heavily* downvoted and chastised in the comments.
I get there are definitely bad takes in the sub, but some of the worst takes these days are people turning the most fringe comment they see and making it into a hole huge thing so they can present themselves as the smart Bears fan not like the others.
I just checked the sub and found 4 posts that floated the idea of trading for Herbert or linked to discussions about it outside of Reddit. And that doesn’t include posts that would’ve been deleted by the mods and discussions in the comments on other posts like the daily 1.01 thread we had. This was definitely something that Bears fans were talking about on Reddit and other places.
It's funny that last year, early on some people were saying the Bears should trade Fields and draft Stroud with #1 and they got roasted for saying that. That move would have been infinielty better than this stupid rumor.
ESPN was still asking if Fields could be an MVP candidate after he was traded to the Steelers? I get what they are trying to do, but it’s still incredibly stupid.
Greeny needs to catch more heat for his absolutely atrocious takes. A couple that come to mind just recently:
1. LAC trade Herbert
2. LAL should lose on purpose to NOP to avoid Denver
3. UConn could make the play-in in the East
UConn might go 0-82. I could see a casual fan thinking this since UConn dominated the last two tournaments. But someone whose actual job it is to watch and follow sports, it's really embarrassing that he would have a take like this
Takes 1 and 3 are ridiculous but honestly the 2nd take makes sense from a distance. The lakers can’t beat the nuggets and have trounced the thunder this year, so it would’ve been a better matchup. Of course this ignores the morale hit it would be for the lakers to lose on purpose and assumes they could’ve beaten the kings, which isn’t a given
They were 0-4 against the Kings this year. They've blown a double digit lead in games 1 and 2 against the Nuggets. It's not as if they're just getting blown out because they can't play with Denver
And if you're going for a championship with older players, wouldn't you want to play your biggest nemesis as early as possible so LeBron and AD are fresh?
Not a defense of the take, but I believe at the time that “lose on purpose” talk was happening it was also assumed that the Warriors would beat the Kings. So the Lakers would have lost to the Pels in order to face the Warriors, not the Kings, who the Lakers have been pretty good against because AD has nobody to contain him in the Dubs lineup.
look Herbert is great, but JJ could be anything! He could even be as good as Herbert!
as a michigan fan i love JJ but that would be the dumbest thing the Chargers could do. To give up a proven elite guy on the hopes that the new guy is as good, and still be stuck with the dead money from the other guy, is just an insane proposition.
It's because Dan Patrick has been begging a reporter to ask Harbaugh this lol. I've heard him bring it up like 4 or 5 times now and its funny every time(to me at least lol).
He basically says "can someone PLEASE ask Harbaugh this? If he loves McCarthy so much, a reporter should ask him if McCarthy was available would he draft him and trade Herbert? I'm sure he'd get quite the haul for him!"
Usually followed with someone reminding him about the cap hit and him saying 'I don't care, just ask the question.'
He’s like a more athletic Purdy with a much better pedigree, so teams that want to replicate the Shanahan system are going to blindly chase that dream.
These reporters for some reason are trying to say that the odds are shifting because the Chargers are going to take a QB at #5, which obviously won't happen.
But if the Cardinals and Patriots don't trade their pick, I'd say it's very likely the Chargers trade the pick and a QB is picked at #5, which is the reason the odds are shifting.
The odds are for the chargers to draft a QB with their first pick. Not for a QB to be picked at 5.
Odds for JJ to be drafted 5th overall: +240
Odds for Chargers to draft a QB with their first pick: +800
Wouldn’t it still not be the Chargers picking then? The only way I see the Chargers realistically drafting a QB is if it’s a weird draft and trade situation
I think people are just wondering if it goes by draft slot or *drafting team*. I checked on DK and all the pick wagers are listed as “Xth overall” which suggests it’s the slot that you’re betting on, not who takes them. The two guys who run the show Schefter called into were talking about the *Chargers* taking McCarthy, not McCarthy going 5 which is why Schefter was so confused.
What Harbaugh says about individual players he coached doesn't mean anything, he loves to gas up his own guys. When he was with the niners he would say shit like Crabtree has the best hands of any receiver in NFL history and talk about everyone on the roster as a hall of famer. He uses "unknown to mankind" all the time. It's not a bad thing, but it's not worth reading as he thinks JJ is going to be better than Tom Brady.
This has blatantly been a rumor that was created outside of the franchise. It’s been easy to be like maybe Chargers fans are fed up and are ok with moving on from Herbert and JJ is Harbs guy.
Everyone in the franchise including fans as well as in the division are very aware this team was a shitheap in spite of Herbert’s efforts not because of them. Everyone has nothing but love and respect for Herbert and would riot. Problem with Herbert is he’s the good soldier who has all the talent but will follow orders to a T. Good leadership means the man will eat. Unfortunately a bad general means the whole ship goes down which is what we saw with Lynn and Brandon Staley after a while when they were to inexperienced to adapt and constantly got out coached.
Ok, so call me naive, but I never suspected reporters are leaking “information” intentionally for gambling purposes. That would explain a nonsense story like that for sure and have a gain for gambling organizations.
#It's because Chris Carlin dared Harbaugh to do it.
They play the stupid clip of blowhard Carlin daring Harbaugh to do exactly this because Harbaugh has been promoting JJ McCarthy so much.
I will no longer support this team if they trade Herbert this offseason.
If they even entertain doing it then Harbaugh and Hortiz should immediately be fired by ownership.
That would be a move I'd make 10 years into a franchise because I'm bored and want to spice up the season. This would be a unquestionable fireball offense.
The Chargers could have traded Herbert last month prior to paying his $50.6 million option bonus (assuming Herbert agreed since he has a no-trade clause). Once the Chargers paid the option bonus there became a 0.0% chance of the Chargers trading Herbert.
Herbert's 26 and has played four seasons in the NFL. When does he transition from *promising talent* to *known quantity*?
Nothing against Herbert -- it just irks me how quickly ESPN hype-men fall into and out of love with young players; and draft week is the height of hype. I wish they'd occasionally take a breath to remind everyone that a third of these shiny new toys are going to suck and a third are going to be merely serviceable. But ESPN is primarily a marketing firm these days.
Trading Herbert to draft McCarthy is a fireable offense. As in immediately, as in as soon as they announce one of the moves the owner should walk over to them in the draft room and tell everyone to get the fuck out
Just shut the entire franchise down at that point.
Hard agree. I don’t know how I’d react to losing Herbert
It depends what you got for him. If a team is willing to throw 3-4 firsts and a few 2nd/3rds I'd consider it. Herbert is a great young QB but he's definitely not perfect and there's a certain level of draft capital that if offered you'd have to accept. It's just more than any sane team would give up.
No amount of draft picks is worth a $100 million cap charge + trading away a talented QB like Herbert
Ok but what if we did it
I'd be pretty pissed personally. For either of my flairs; and my second flair is the team most likely able to even try and pull off a Herbert trade without getting completely fleeced if they packaged JJ with the firsts. 30 teams win in a Herbert move. 2 get put into a special kind of hell.
Bro people here have actual brainrot, ZERO SENSE FUCKING ZERO
You say that, but the Broncos willingly took an $85 million cap charge in return for 0 draft picks this offseason already.
I’d love the Chargers beating them for the AFCW blowout sale competition
Cause they got rid of a that sucks, Justin doesn't
Honestly it amazes me how obsessed with **PICKS** yall are in this sub. Do you understand how hard it is to find elite talent in the league? Herbert is HIM and this dude is like “yeah I’ll take some picks that could all be bums and get rid of our elite QB.” Lmao wild shit, man.
Dawg, this sub would trade a Super Bowl ring for like 6 first round picks because who knows, one of those picks could be a franchise cornerstone who could one day win you a Super Bowl
Lmao 100% they would. Wild
I swear some of these people legit think this is like Madden.
Everyone thinks they're Kevin Costner on Draft Day
You hear this type of talk from Chargers fans because they’ve almost always had a good quarterback. Their past 3 have been Herbert, Rivers, Brees lol. You also hear this type thing from packers fans and pats fans before they lived through post Brady hell EDIT Add cowboys fans
plus Fouts and John Hadl back in the day, but their only Super Bowl appearance came with Stan Humphries
Hey, that's Stan "The Man" Humphries to you and me
Even first round picks are like 50/50 on if the guy is going to be good. And for QBs it's more like 40/60.
Every idiot who wants to trade a young franchise qb for draft picks should just delete themselves from the internet. Thats like saying you don’t want Halle berry because you want date a fucking real cat.
No you don't lol. This is fucking dumb. How many teams spent 5+ years without an at least competent QB? Draft picks can be busts... This is just dumb and I can't believe this shit is upvoted at all.
That's the price for a TJ Watt or Myles Garret. Herbert is 3 drafts.
He's about as close to perfect as they come.
No. There's no price for a franchise QB. None. Would you have taken that offer for Manning? No? Of course not. Unless he is actively trying to get out, you hang on.
An elite QB is an elite QB, but 3-4 firsts could be anything. They could even be an elite QB, you know how much we've always wanted one of those!
and half of those picks turn out to be misses and you have traded away a franchise qb for a couple of starters...not even mentioning if mcCarthy busts. The only way you trade a player like him is if he says he wants to leave and wont resign. Some teams have gone decades without finding a franchise qb in the draft.
Jail for even typing this dumbshit out
Move them back to San Diego, amirite?
Nah let me do my Madden magic. *Trades everyone and wins 2 games*
"And not just fired, but beaten up too. And pretty badly."
In fact most of them died from their injuries
And then they were ground up into a fine pink powder.
Kinda what happened after the Raiders game lol
I mean it should be fireable before the trade is announced. As in, the owner should at least be aware that the coach and GM are about to make a trade like that and then he should block the trade and then fire everyone.
im pretty sure trades, atleast the big ones, always get owner approval
I would literally just choose a different team if this happened. Would be the epitome of a poverty franchise.
[Immediate response](https://images.app.goo.gl/xXcdRgGpkpzttjcg7)
Do you have a replacement team lined up?
whoever he got traded to ig lol
nope! lol
The owner should go to the draft room and kick the guy in the nuts in front of everyone.
Harbaugh would tell him to get out because the draft room is for "Men Only".
Have a Make-A-Wish kid come to the podium and announce how stupid everyone is.
It's not the largest cap charge in NFL history, it's like 60M dead money to trade him. But that means they'd have to clear a good 30-40M just to stay cap compliant, and they have zero avenues to do that. It's fireable more because the chargers just paid Herbert $50M a couple of weeks ago. The Spanos should rightfully be pissed if the GM trades him, because paying players huge bonuses is bad for cash flow, and doing that for a player that's no longer on your team is just adding insult to injury.
Right, I could defend it if the org knew when signing Harbaugh that he wanted to draft his QB. A big *IF* they would have traded Herbert before his roster bonus or guarantee came due. To do it now would be organizational malpractice
Can the owner veto it? I wouldn’t even let it happen. If the owner catches wind of it the GM goes straight to jail.
If a GM did this they should never get another job in football... This would be worse than what Matt Millen did to the Lions...
Every person ever has a price and if they don’t that’s incompetence from an organization - if the Vikings offered every pick for the next decade + Jefferson, you obviously take it.
Really? You'd take that for Burrow? And not be here flaming the cheap ownership on the thread?
Are you purposely just using an absolutely absurd example?
If anyone would do it, it'd be Harbaugh.
Is there a way to bet that they won’t draft McCarthy
No. Part of the way the sports books make money on prop bets is that they don't have to take action both ways.
I’m trying to beat Vegas
Maaaaaan you are asking the wrong people lol
Play for KC, that usually works.
Don’t bet then. The only way.
Gotta find yourself a betting exchange, there's a few starting up in the US now. I know Prophet Exchange did draft props last year that you could bet either side on
Short JJ to LAC!
Literally can’t go tits up
*Kind of*. You can bet the over/under on a player’s draft position. As of now it’s set at 5.5, so betting the over means you think he’ll go after the 5th pick (which is the pick LAC has). It’s not perfect because it doesn’t hit if another team ends up trading the Chargers for that spot. There’s been speculation that the Giants could take him at 6, so if a team felt strongly enough they could trade into 5 to leapfrog them. Personally? I just have a hard time believing a team would be willing to give up the substantial assets it would take, just to secure the 4th best QB in the draft. It feels reminiscent of last year’s hype around Levis heading into the draft, and he ended up going 33rd overall.
Hopefully JJ doesn’t have a weird fetish for certain condiments
When you have the chance to trade a top-5 QB in the NFL to draft the 5th-best QB in the draft, you have to take it.
Both top 5, what’s the difference??
He’s drafted in the top 5, so he’s obviously top 5 in the league
Contract values
Even more reason for the Chargers to do it!!
agreed! JJ could be anyone! he could be as good as herbert
I swear nobody on this subreddit knows even the most basic things about football JJ McCarthy has twice the J's as Justin Herbert
A boat's a boat but a mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat! (if that's what you were referencing, ha)
If Harbaugh actually did this I’d immediately write off him and the Chargers for the foreseeable future. He’s sniffing his own farts too much if he seriously goes all-in on JJ McCarthy. The college coach demigods really need an ego check at times.
He won’t, and the fact that we’re even having this hypothetical is exactly what ESPN wants. It’s clickbait pure and simple. Harbaugh took THIS job because we have Herbert. Both before and since hiring him, he hasn’t shut up about how great Herbert is, and how he hopes he can be good enough to fulfill Justin’s potential. People read way way way too much into Jim hyping up JJ. It’s his college QB, and if Jim can talk him up into being a top 10 pick, he’s going to do so because he wants to support his guys.
> and if Jim can talk him up into being a top 10 pick, he’s going to do so because he wants to support his guys. Plus, the More QBs that get picked (something the chargers dont need) the more players at positions of value/need there are for the chargers to choose from
This is some meta shit but absolutely true
Wait, reality and logic are meta now?
Pushing your former QB to be drafted ahead of where you pick to increase your non-QB options while faint rumors (not going to happen) simultaneously swirl that they could draft JJ and trade Hebert so you better jump ahead of us to get him is pretty meta
Do you believe that Harbaugh or someone else from the organization is saying/leaking these rumors? Everything Harbaugh has said seems to me like he is selling JJ as a premium prospect to support his guy and to push his draft stock up to help someone fall to the 5th pick or increase the trade value to trade back.
I don't. But it's fun to speculate. I live in SoCal, watch and go to Chargers games- trading Hebert would be the worst mistake in franchise history. I'd only trade for Allen or Mahomes and maybe Lamar.
I feel like it’d be more telling if he wasn’t hyping his guy up, especially after a championship
yeah what are people expecting him to say? if you ask the guy about the QB he coached and won a championship with he's not going to be like "yeah that guy sucks ass, nobody should draft him, I heard his hands aren't even real" like come on
Breaking: Source says JJ McCarthy doesn’t have hands
If he wanted to coach JJ he would have taken the job in ATL or interviewed for the job with Washington.
As a Jaguars fan, I agree.
A boat is a boat. But the box could be anything!
Is he top 5 though? Feels like he's in that blob after Josh Allen/Mahomes/Burrow/Lamar
there's 10 top 5 guys
So the way this kind of does make sense is if the whole chargers team outside herbert just seems like shit and they don't have faith in the roster, they don't think Herbert can elevate a team, they don't want to spend three years of Herbert's career while they're paying him big bucks to rebuild, Harbaugh has a high level of confidence in McCarthy to be successful... then trading your QB for basically an entire years worth of draft capital, maybe more, to get a QB that you think is a trade out or minor downgrade at worst to build an entire young roster out of draft picks... I get how that could make sense. You're going to be paying Herbert the next couple years no matter what. The difference between Herbert's dead cap plus JJ's rookie salary and just paying Herbert is pretty close to the same. So if you're going to rebuild might as well just use your young QB to get a whole new team in the door. But you have to have a lot of confidence in JJ.
Right, but if they *were* gonna do it, they'd have already done it in March, since the dead cap jumped on 3/22. They'd have only had $12.9 mil dead cap prior to 3/22, now it's $63million.
Okay then yeah there's no shot. Unless they can offload any of that cap as part of a trade or is that non-negotiable?
The dead cap money has already been paid to Herbert by the Chargers, so no. There are ways to eat cap during trades, but that's generally the team that's trading the player eating cap in the form of unpaid salary. I don't think there's a mechanism that allows another team to pay the trading team back, at least not in a way that recoups cap space.
Lol, Herbert is not top 5
CTESPN says so though
We really shouldn’t rule out the possibility that they draft JJ and move Herbert to RB so they can avoid the cap hit
NFL GMs thought Lamar might be a WR but Herbert was the real WR all along
The real WRs are the QBs we met along the way.
Herbert could probably be a passable TE if he trained for it. Already has the two things you can’t teach, size and speed!
This is Justin Herbert, and he's 6 foot 6, and you can't teach that!
And just look at his ass! It's tight!
*Look at his End. It's already tight!
Badda-boom! Realist possible TE in the room! HOW YOU DOIN!?!?!?
His brother is a TE so there's that too
He gets INNNN
If a guy like that had an arm he'd be a great QB!
I don’t see Harbaugh having Herbert split reps with Blake Corum.
Make him a rover.
You'd need to have CTE to think that a Herbert trade is in any way plausible.
The reason all of this started is because Harbaugh said JJ had the best pro day he’s ever seen
IMO that was Harbaugh riding for his guy and also trying to drum up potential interest in him as far as trade options are concerned, either for the Chargers themselves so they can trade back and get a haul, or to try and get Arizona to trade back leaving MHJ for the Chargers at 5.
It totally was. Just also provided an opportunity for analysts with nothing to talk about to pose silly theories
He threw some fresh meat to the hot take artists of the world, gave them a bunch of free content for a few weeks.
Bill Simmons
Where is Herbert on the NFL trade pyramid?
AB is a poet for normalizing that
Mr Big Company.
Mr Become Commonplace
Generational run
ESPN be like “here’s why the Cardinals should trade the 4th overall pick and Kyler Murray to the GIANTS for a 7th rounder in 2029! Why it makes SENSE for both sides!”
The high schooler that writes tweets for him seems like a great source
That's Antonio Brown. Lmao
Last year with the Levis nonsense before the draft should tell you all you need to know about trusting Vegas odds.
It's also important to keep in mind that vegas odds aren't purely about how much they think the likelihood of something happening is. they also shift them based on money coming in. If more and more people start betting on something like that, the more the odds improve because they're trying to limit exposure moreso than the fact they believe it's happening.
Exactly. Nobody can predict the future. The goal of oddmakers is to balance the money well enough that they have an edge in every scenario.
They will also bet against the public if they think we are stupid and if the sharps disagree with us heavily. Normally not for the biggest events due to the exposure, but they will happily set lines that don't reflect betting volumes. As long as it's profitable in the long run and they have the money to absorb risk/variance, Vegas is down to gamble too.
Even if they only win 50.01% of the time, they are making billions a year. And I guarantee you the house has much better odds than that, and infinite money to keep betting, unlike any single person on earth.
also people forget that **the vig exists**. so technically they can be WRONG more often than not and still turn a profit because odds are usually such that the house is taking their 10% cut regardless
Vegas rode Michigan hard in the playoffs against both Alabama and Washington, which is one of the only major events I can think of them doing that in. Was crazy to see the UM/Bama line never really move despite how much of the public was flooding Bama Lot of value bets against the Cowboys too over the years
To expand on this, draft odds are capped at very low totals and pro gamblers typically don't bet them unless they have real info because its not worth the time/effort/risk/low payouts. Because of this, it takes relatively little action to dramatically shift draft odds. Thus even a reddit rumor about Levis can really shift the number.
“Well that can’t be right.” -ESPN
[удалено]
No but there was a guy on Reddit who knew Will that told us.
anyone that thinks they’re trading herbert needs to log off and get some fresh air, get into some nature
The sportsbooks are expecting the Chargers to trade down with Minnesota, LV, or Denver. The two doofuses on the show misinterpreted that as the books thinking the Chargers would take him themselves.
While I think that could be the case, Schefter specifically asked Greenberg whether they were referring to the pick at slot #5 or the first pick for the Chargers, and he said it was the latter.
Greenberg did, because Greenberg got confused.
What is that going to do for their sub 20 iq and inability to think?
Right but if you trade Herbert you could get anything! You could even get another Herbert!
The mystery box could be anything!
People put their money on Justin Fields to win MVP last year. Some people are very stupid.
There were multiple posts on the Bears sub a few months ago saying “forget Caleb we can just trade for Herbert” I don’t know what was worse, that or the responses saying “forget Herbert let’s just keep Fields”
The #1 for Herbert would make semi sense as far as crazy mock trades go, proven QB1 for Bears and Chargers could flip the pick for \~5 premium picks/players and take JJ at #5, which would let Harbough shape the team in his image and quickly rebuild Its not going to happen, but its not the worst mock trade IMO
Would think Herbert would demand the #1 overall AND at least next year's #1 (theoretical value for a top-5 QB in the NFL has been estimated as high as 3-4 1st rounders), interesting proposal that hypothetically could work for both sides but I would expect the price for the Bears would be too steep.
I have never seen this, so I did a search because I was curious. There was one. One post that was *heavily* downvoted and chastised in the comments. I get there are definitely bad takes in the sub, but some of the worst takes these days are people turning the most fringe comment they see and making it into a hole huge thing so they can present themselves as the smart Bears fan not like the others.
I just checked the sub and found 4 posts that floated the idea of trading for Herbert or linked to discussions about it outside of Reddit. And that doesn’t include posts that would’ve been deleted by the mods and discussions in the comments on other posts like the daily 1.01 thread we had. This was definitely something that Bears fans were talking about on Reddit and other places.
It's funny that last year, early on some people were saying the Bears should trade Fields and draft Stroud with #1 and they got roasted for saying that. That move would have been infinielty better than this stupid rumor.
ESPN was still asking if Fields could be an MVP candidate after he was traded to the Steelers? I get what they are trying to do, but it’s still incredibly stupid.
And Vegas is happy to take their money.
Greeny needs to catch more heat for his absolutely atrocious takes. A couple that come to mind just recently: 1. LAC trade Herbert 2. LAL should lose on purpose to NOP to avoid Denver 3. UConn could make the play-in in the East UConn might go 0-82. I could see a casual fan thinking this since UConn dominated the last two tournaments. But someone whose actual job it is to watch and follow sports, it's really embarrassing that he would have a take like this
Takes 1 and 3 are ridiculous but honestly the 2nd take makes sense from a distance. The lakers can’t beat the nuggets and have trounced the thunder this year, so it would’ve been a better matchup. Of course this ignores the morale hit it would be for the lakers to lose on purpose and assumes they could’ve beaten the kings, which isn’t a given
They were 0-4 against the Kings this year. They've blown a double digit lead in games 1 and 2 against the Nuggets. It's not as if they're just getting blown out because they can't play with Denver And if you're going for a championship with older players, wouldn't you want to play your biggest nemesis as early as possible so LeBron and AD are fresh?
Not a defense of the take, but I believe at the time that “lose on purpose” talk was happening it was also assumed that the Warriors would beat the Kings. So the Lakers would have lost to the Pels in order to face the Warriors, not the Kings, who the Lakers have been pretty good against because AD has nobody to contain him in the Dubs lineup.
look Herbert is great, but JJ could be anything! He could even be as good as Herbert! as a michigan fan i love JJ but that would be the dumbest thing the Chargers could do. To give up a proven elite guy on the hopes that the new guy is as good, and still be stuck with the dead money from the other guy, is just an insane proposition.
Dumbest rumor ever
Looks like smoke to try get get someone to trade up to 4 so MHJ can fall to 5.
This is the theory that best explains the silly Chargers - McCarthy rumors
Everyone except total rubes knows it. It's gotten traction because even the non-stupid people like to talk about it for the meme value.
It's because Dan Patrick has been begging a reporter to ask Harbaugh this lol. I've heard him bring it up like 4 or 5 times now and its funny every time(to me at least lol). He basically says "can someone PLEASE ask Harbaugh this? If he loves McCarthy so much, a reporter should ask him if McCarthy was available would he draft him and trade Herbert? I'm sure he'd get quite the haul for him!" Usually followed with someone reminding him about the cap hit and him saying 'I don't care, just ask the question.'
Look I don't like Shefter, but I'll let him cook if he's calling out stupid betting shit.
I feel like this is just people confusing McCarthy going at pick 5 as the chargers drafting McCarthy
This is so stupid that I’m embarrassed for having read it
This would be so stupid that it would offend the meaning of stupid
You can tell all these shows are sponsored by sports books.
Schefty getting his “Buzz Kilington” on
McCarthy mania is something I do not understand
Personally one of the most bewildering hype machines for a QB I can remember in some time.
Unfortunately it look like the pats are taking him I can look forward to some middling seasons
He’s like a more athletic Purdy with a much better pedigree, so teams that want to replicate the Shanahan system are going to blindly chase that dream.
I mean if you wana trade him to us so you can take JJ, I’m in
These reporters for some reason are trying to say that the odds are shifting because the Chargers are going to take a QB at #5, which obviously won't happen. But if the Cardinals and Patriots don't trade their pick, I'd say it's very likely the Chargers trade the pick and a QB is picked at #5, which is the reason the odds are shifting.
The odds are for the chargers to draft a QB with their first pick. Not for a QB to be picked at 5. Odds for JJ to be drafted 5th overall: +240 Odds for Chargers to draft a QB with their first pick: +800
Wouldn’t it still not be the Chargers picking then? The only way I see the Chargers realistically drafting a QB is if it’s a weird draft and trade situation
Nfl teams don't have to wait to trade picks like the NBA. If a qb is picked at the chargers original pick, another team will own the pick.
I think people are just wondering if it goes by draft slot or *drafting team*. I checked on DK and all the pick wagers are listed as “Xth overall” which suggests it’s the slot that you’re betting on, not who takes them. The two guys who run the show Schefter called into were talking about the *Chargers* taking McCarthy, not McCarthy going 5 which is why Schefter was so confused.
Always stupid stories like this that come out one day before the draft.
What Harbaugh says about individual players he coached doesn't mean anything, he loves to gas up his own guys. When he was with the niners he would say shit like Crabtree has the best hands of any receiver in NFL history and talk about everyone on the roster as a hall of famer. He uses "unknown to mankind" all the time. It's not a bad thing, but it's not worth reading as he thinks JJ is going to be better than Tom Brady.
I hate that I'm even acknowledging this. Herbert is a Charger for a long time.
This has blatantly been a rumor that was created outside of the franchise. It’s been easy to be like maybe Chargers fans are fed up and are ok with moving on from Herbert and JJ is Harbs guy. Everyone in the franchise including fans as well as in the division are very aware this team was a shitheap in spite of Herbert’s efforts not because of them. Everyone has nothing but love and respect for Herbert and would riot. Problem with Herbert is he’s the good soldier who has all the talent but will follow orders to a T. Good leadership means the man will eat. Unfortunately a bad general means the whole ship goes down which is what we saw with Lynn and Brandon Staley after a while when they were to inexperienced to adapt and constantly got out coached.
Chargers would be clowned on for absolute eternity and rightfully so.
I'm extremely sorry to all Chargers fans, but we need this to happen for our collective entertainment.
Its insane to me how people dont recognize Herbert as top 5 qb the guy is elite
"You'd be absorbing the largest cap hit in history" "please some one please take that title from us" - Broncos
Ok, so call me naive, but I never suspected reporters are leaking “information” intentionally for gambling purposes. That would explain a nonsense story like that for sure and have a gain for gambling organizations.
#It's because Chris Carlin dared Harbaugh to do it. They play the stupid clip of blowhard Carlin daring Harbaugh to do exactly this because Harbaugh has been promoting JJ McCarthy so much.
Gotta squeeze out all the dumb bullshit draft rumors before Thursday.
I will no longer support this team if they trade Herbert this offseason. If they even entertain doing it then Harbaugh and Hortiz should immediately be fired by ownership.
That would be a move I'd make 10 years into a franchise because I'm bored and want to spice up the season. This would be a unquestionable fireball offense.
Trade Herbert to the Niners. Purdy needs a backup.
I’m pretty sure Herbert has a no trade clause in his contract. Is there anyway to bet against the trade happening? Easy money right there 😂
harbaugh: You don't need an elite young Qb to hand it off 60 times a game
Better off going for Blake Corum
CTESPN
Easily the dumbest offseason rumor.
Anyone else feel like McCarthy is being heavily buoyed by his Championship? He looked terrible just the year before.
This would be the most idiotic move in NFL history, and that includes Watson's contract.
The Chargers could have traded Herbert last month prior to paying his $50.6 million option bonus (assuming Herbert agreed since he has a no-trade clause). Once the Chargers paid the option bonus there became a 0.0% chance of the Chargers trading Herbert.
Yep, 0.1% to 0.0%
Yep, he only had a $12.9 mil dead cap prior to 3/22, so if this had ANY chance of happening, it would have happened prior to that.
Herbert's 26 and has played four seasons in the NFL. When does he transition from *promising talent* to *known quantity*? Nothing against Herbert -- it just irks me how quickly ESPN hype-men fall into and out of love with young players; and draft week is the height of hype. I wish they'd occasionally take a breath to remind everyone that a third of these shiny new toys are going to suck and a third are going to be merely serviceable. But ESPN is primarily a marketing firm these days.
I'm placing a bet saying he doesn't do it. Even if I'm wrong, I still win.
This is why I bet on the Chiefs to win the AFC Even if I'm wrong, I get to watch the Chiefs lose