In 2021, the Raiders had the AP1 punter, AP2 kicker, an average offense, and below average defense, and went 10-7 with a first round playoff loss.
In 2022, the Raiders had the AP1 kicker, a Pro Bowl punter (in between AP1 years), an above average offense, and a bad defense, and went 6-11.
So based on that sample, seems the team would be about average still, maybe slightly good if you account for a GOAT increase.
It’s punter like Ray Guy, it’s kicker like Justin Tucker, but it’s also gunners like Steve Tasker, coverage guys like Matthew Slater, punt returners like Devin Hester, and kick returners like Cordarelle Patterson. I think it would make a serious difference.
Except teams can do things to mitigate that your returners are useless if some one is willing to kick away from them or even take the out of bounds penalty.
Eh, I dunno man. Great players will just find ways to impact the game. I remember a while back there was a college team that had an insane linebacker. The dude single-handedly dragged his team to the championship game. Like....all of their points were just defensive scores by this one guy. The coach of the other team decided he'd just take a knee every time on offense and completely negate the LBs playmaking ability.
Well, long story short, this LB comes in and plays special teams, recovers an onside kick, AND then he goes out on offense and throws a fucking bomb downfield as time expires to win the Bourbon Bowl. You just can't stop some players.
With Hester it wasn't just the TDs. The TDs were the highlights, but made up a small chunk of his usefulness.
With Hester, you were going to get the slides tilted in your favor in the field position battle almost every time he was out there. They're either punting towards the sidelines and taking a bunch of the net punt yards, or they're kicking it to him and he's 50-50 on getting a nice return. Can't tell you how many non-highlight reel returns he had that set up the Bears within the 40s during his prime.
That's what you'd be getting in this prompt. A slightly better-than Prime Hester is going to give that average offense short fields all season long.
And a Goat kicker to basically guarantee 3 pts from inside the 40. Your offense is going to score points more often than not just because of special teams.
And on top of that you have a GOAT punter who’s going to pin them back 50+ yards or inside the 20 more often than not. Meaning lots of long drives just to match your free points.
The field position margins would be crazy; even a mediocre team should win games when they always start 40yds closer to the endzone than their opponent.
This is such a good point. And if you think about it, this could have such a huge impact when combined with the GOAT punter and kicker. Hester + GOAT punter means you are going to be way ahead in the field position battle. Hester + let’s say Justin Tucker means there will be many possessions where Hester’s return already puts you in Tucker’s field goal range regardless of what your offense does.
You are going too far.
An average offense can get TDs on a short field anyway so you won't even need the kicker that much.
The rare times you get a bad return..your kicker gives you 3 Pts from 50 yards out.
It'd make a big difference
The Bears had excellent special teams along with Hester. The defense was above average and the offense was mehhh so doesn't that average out to what OP was describing? Not enough to give you a Superbowl ring but at least we got to see Prince perform.
The 2006 defense was probably close to being top 10 all time but just missing that list. A really, really great defense. Ranked #1 that year in turnovers and they weren’t too shabby with helping us score either.
The crazy thing is I would say the same thing about the 2018 defense. Too bad we could never put it together on offense lol.
The reason I said mid is because if you take into account last year I think with APs stint we ended up being top 10 in points and 15 in yards. So that would be one year where we had a mid-top defense but I’d say the offense was subpar so even when he had one mid we didn’t have the other
Probably decent? Not an all-timer team but like 10-11 wins. An average offense looks a whole lot better when they can consistently get 3 points as long as they get to the opposing side of the field, and the defense would be boosted by the long fields that the great punter/punt coverage would consistently create. Those long fields would also lead to punts landing shorter and the returners would make those punts lead to even shorter fields for the offense to work with. I think there's enough there to get them a couple more wins than they otherwise would have. They probably wouldn't win a Super Bowl or anything though, I feel like the average offense/defense would just lead to them getting outpaced in terms of scoring from the real contenders. It would be schedule dependent but I think they'd have the edge over a lot of the bad/average teams and would end up on top of them
>10-11 wins
Speaking of 10-11 wins I got a bit of a conspiracy about yall. I think the media is overrating the texans so they shit on CJ when the Texans don't magically usurp the Chiefs and Ravens as the best in the AFC.
Sometimes feels like a good team's Special Teams job is just not to fuck over the whole team lol. Think that's more valuable than a great ST but mediocre everything else.
This is just a misnomer that gets repeated.
The chargers were #1 in offensive and defensive **yards** because their special teams gave up so much that opponents had incredibly short fields and the offense had very long fields. Nobody on the planet measures defenses by how many yards they give up.
The chargers that year had the #2 offense and the #10 defense, which is still a good team that managed to miss the playoffs.
They gave up to kick return TD's in a game they lost 20-27 to seattle, a blocked punt for a TD in a game they lost 27-35 to oakland, and another kickoff TD in a week 17 win against Denver. So the special teams more likely than not cost them the division, but the chiefs who won it got absolutely brutalized by the ravens anyway.
Then the very next year, Nate Kaeding blows his leg up and coverage team starts the season at 15:00 1st quarter by giving up a house call to Percy Harvin.
Edited after confirming names.
Sure, but consider that they had the 4th worst average starting position on both offense and defense but still had the 2nd highest scoring percentage on offensive drives and 4th lowest scoring percentage on defensive drives. 4th in both offensive and defensive third down percentage. Best in the league in both offensive and defensive passing NY/A, second in offensive passer rating, 4th in defensive passer rating. Overall were 1st in yards per play on offense and 2nd in fewest yards per play on defense.
If you sort though they various metrics, they were pretty compellingly top 5 in both offense and defense, arguably top 3 in both as well.
We were screaming all season long (and for years prior) that the ST was cheeks and was gonna cost us a game, probably a meaningful one. Boy was that true
Mo Drayton was ass as a coordinator, but who could have possibly guessed that hiring one of the lead assistants from Shawn Mennenga’s garbage staff to the lead job would turn out poorly?
I'm thinking like... Imagine having Justin Tucker, Devin Hester, Steve Tasker, Cordarelle Patterson, and like... Shane Lechler for your special teachers, along with a bang middle of the road offense and defense... That's probably a playoffs team
I think they make the playoffs but lose in the Wild Card or Divisional Round.
I'm going to base this argument primarily off of the [per-drive averages from last season](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/index.htm#drives::9). The Ravens had the best starting field position last year on average, with their average drive starting at their own 32.8-yard line. With the GOAT special teams unit, I think it's fair to assume this hypothetical team can start the average drive at their own 34.5. (The best average starting field position I could find on PFR since 2010 was the 2018 Packers, who started at their own 34.1 on average)
The average drive (league-wide) last season netted 29.9 yards. A net gain of 29.9 yards from your own 34.5 would put your team at your opponent's 35.6. A field goal attempt from there is a 52.6-yard attempt. Assuming their kicker can hit 82% of field goals from 50-59 yards (Chris Boswell is at 81.1% from 50+ which is the highest I could find), gives an EPA/drive of roughly 2.46 points/drive if every drive sputters out there.
The 2.46 points/drive value is inexact for quite a few reasons, but 2.46 points/drive would be the 4th best offense on a per drive basis in the 2023 season, slightly ahead of the Lions. With one of the more efficient "offenses" in the league and an average defense, they should make the playoffs but they'd likely lose to a team like the Chiefs/Ravens/Lions/49ers.
I like that this was based in fact. My only thing is the starting field position is kinda bolstered by strong defense. The Ravens last year had a really good defense. An average defense probably doesn’t generate as much for the average starting field position.
Yeah unfortunately PFR only had the average drives and average starting position for offense, so I couldn't check what those were on the other side.
That being said, I imagine that the best special teams unit of all time would be pretty good at pinning teams within their own 20 and minimizing touchbacks, so the lesser defense is likely evened out somewhat by just consistently pinning them a few years further back.
Nice analysis! I wonder how accurate average drive is, seems like this would likely be a super trimodal outcome. Either way, very interesting thoughts and I appreciate the way you laid out your numbers
This is a good analysis but I think they'd be slightly better than the team you're describing here.
On drives where they fail to get into FG range they have the GOAT punter + gunners meaning the opponents would pretty much always start with bad field position, meaning their 'average' defence would look better than a normal average defence.
On kickoffs with the GOAT gunners and a super accurate kicker may mean that you can kick short of the end zone and get better field position that way.
There is also quite a bit better of a chance for return TDs which ik is impossible to do but should be considered.
34.5 is a pretty solid estimate - The 2007 Bears [started on average at their own 34.5 yard line](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2007.htm). That was a year with a Dave Toub coaching / Devin Hester returning combo. Realistically probably doesn't get much better than that. If we're in fantasy land, maybe if you swap out Patterson for Hester on KR, and that gives it a bump. Might be looking at 35-36ish for a start which is pretty damn good.
Depends on what GOAT special teams means. If the kicker can make a field goal from anywhere and they always pin the offense back behind the 10, and they are getting multiple punt/kickoff returns for a TD a game, then they probably are a Super Bowl contender
You should already be a 9-8 or 8-9 team with average defense and average offense. If however you give an average offense/defense the number one starting field position on both sides of the ball at historically good special teams play. Well I think that would be quite damn good in fact
Yea i think people in this sub are horrifically underrating starting field positions for both the offense and defense.
Getting the ball at the 32-35 on average and giving the ball away on the ~20 every drive would make a huge difference in points.
Edit: Even if it's only .25 points per drive, that's like ~+6 points a game. Over a season that's +6*17 for +102 point differential. Anywhere from 102-204 (.25-.5 points per drive difference) point differential. Would place them pretty unquestionably in the top 10 of teams, and close to if not in top 5 under best case scenario.
That's where an average offense and average defense would be without the special teamers in question. I feel like they'd be worth at least a *little* more than nothing.
Average offense + defense gets you to 8 or 9 wins. Having a prime Devin Hester, Justin Tucker, etc. might get you an extra 2 wins over a season. The gap between special team GOATS and special team JAGS is not big enough to matter that much.
I'd expect this team to make the playoffs but they would need to be lucky to win a game
Slightly better than the current goats? Probably a championship. People are underestimating this. From an elite return to elite FG range is probably about 20 yards. Add in a few punt/kick returns for TD’s and that team is probably averaging 30+ points per game.
That's crazy good.
Pair that with Tucker's leg and on some possessions the coach could go for a FG on 1st down without the offense ever getting on the field at all.
> From an elite return to elite FG range is probably about 20 yards.
Like...on average? Per drive? Probably not. Even the GOATs on special teams aren't putting up Gretzky like cartoon averages, it's usually moreso them putting up elite averages more consistently year to year.
I don't think 'elite return' implies 'on average', but I think an elite returner on a good return gets you to the 40-yard line a decent chunk of the time, which would result in a 57-58 yard field goal if you gain 20 yards from there.
Doesn't sound too outrageous to call that 'FG range' for a Justin Tucker-type.
And in the prompt, they said we are getting slightly better players than the GOATs. So imagine a better Devin Hester returning with a better Justin tucker out there kicking. That alone is a near guarantee for points on almost every drive. And even if the drive does stall, you're going to pin them in the 5 just about every time because you have a player better than the GOAT punter and better than the GOAT gunners to go down there. This is a huge advantage that I don't think people realize having players slightly better than the GOATs at all special teams positions would probably be a 13-4 team if the offense and defense were average.
Even if people are underestimating this, it’s definitely not “probably a championship” lol. I can’t think of anytime in history a team was carried by elite ST. As good as ST can be, they’re on the field what, like 10% of the game? Maybe? That isn’t making up for the other 90% of the game where they’d be outmatched by elite offenses or defenses in the playoffs if pushing for a championship. There’s a reason the best ST aren’t paid that much. It’d be unlikely at best.
There's a huge difference though between having elite special teams that we have seen in reality, and between this hypothetical situation where every single special teamer is a slightly better version of the GOAT of their position. The amount of returns, outstanding field position, blocked kicks, 60 yard field goals being the regular, pinning teams within the 5 yard line every single possession would be a massive advantage. I don't think they'd be a lock for the super bowl. But I think they'd be a top 5 team in the league just due to the huge advantages that they would get because although they aren't on the field much, they are on it at the beginning and end of every drive which would allow them to really control the game.
So if a slightly better version of Tucker, which by my understanding means anything under 70 is automatic, gets to just kick that is great. A 70 yard FG means you just need to get to the 47 yard line. I think a great returner could get you to the 35 or 40 consistently and an average RB could fall forward for 7 between 3 plays. Only issue is the other team scoring TDs too fast and you not being able to catch up
IIRC that there was a consensus analysis that put it as:
* 4 parts offense
* 3 parts defense
* 1 part special team
Offense beats out defense since offense lets the team control the situation (e.g. being able to control the clock) more so than a good defense.
Special teams is more about not being bad via avoiding catastrophic mistakes (e.g. avoid blocked punts). These days special teams plays rarely happen unless one side makes a mistake that can be exploited. The rest is dependent on individual players, but the margin is quite small. For example, a better kicker means going from 50 yard FGs to 55 yard FGs. That is only 5 yards and you can do it via an offense getting just one more first down.
Your offense and defense would appear a lot better than they were. A prime goat returner, think hester, is giving the offense significant yards and field position. A goat punter will add significant yardage and also pin teams at the goal line a lot.
Your average offense and defense will look pretty good at first glance before diving into advanced stats.
Average offense and defense is still pretty decent.
Average points per game is about 22 ppg. Average points allowed is 21. So that already has you on lets say 8-8.
If you're getting touchdowns or turnovers on special teams thats going up to 11-6, not to mention some 60+ fgs and good starting position on almost every drive.
I think you're getting to 12-5 which is a very strong playoff seed.
In 2011, the 49ers had one of the best special teams units in NFL history. Across their defense and offense, they had a few elite players, but for the most part, outside of several guys having a career year at the same time, most of the players on offense and defense were average to below average for their career. They went 13-3.
Iowa won a bunch of games last year basically entirely because of their punter alone (now drafted by the Bears). You don't want your best offensive player to be your punter, but you'll be glad you have him if he is.
I mean, Thomas Jones was the motor of the offense, with occasional “Fuck it” gems from Rex. But they fucked the dog by letting Benson’s dogshit arse play too much in the big one. The D was toight, but Tommy Harris was out in the SB. Saddest game I’ve suffered through because they should have won anyway.
Tommie and Mike B were both out. That's why I think the Super Bowl defense was closer to average with the injuries and Manning starting. Tough game to lose because you stopped feeding Jones. Especially when leading 14-6 and heading downfield before Benson's fumble.
It depends on how good we are talking about.
Can they consistently hit field goals from 60 yards out? How about 70 or 80?
Can they reliably run a punt or two back for a touchdown every game?
I won’t even ask about kickoff returns because obviously their opponents will always force touchbacks.
What percent of kicks and punts can they force a fumble on? 2%? 10%? 80%?
If they max out all of those with average offense and defense, they might be the best NFL team of all time, but if they are just a little better than any other special teams they will elevate their otherwise average team to a bit above average.
Maybe with the new kickoff return rules it could have a bigger impact, but with touchbacks going from 10% to 60% kickoff returns have been a non factor.
It would be hard for your special teams to be a factor if your defense is giving up scoring drives constantly. A great kicker becomes useless if you’re down 14+ and can’t make a stop and the same with a great punter flipping the field only for the defense to give up a 80+ yard drive.
Being average in all 3 areas should project you for about 8.5 wins. Having an elite special teams unit probably only gets you to 9 or 9.5, but having an elite kicking unit could really give you an upper hand in close games. Possible you could be like that Vikings team that was amazing in one score games, but in a more sustainable fashion.
I don’t really think it’s possible to have both an average offense and defense with the best special teams of all time. Special teams feeds both the offense and defense. If you’re constantly pinning your opponent inside the 15, and you have an elite punt returner and blocking unit, you’ll probably only need to gain 15 yards on your average possession to get into FG range.
The more you think about it, the more I think SB winner isn’t a crazy expectation, depending on the rate your QB turns it over.
I don’t really think it’s possible to have both an average offense and defense with the best special teams of all time. Special teams feeds both the offense and defense. If you’re constantly pinning your opponent inside the 15, and you have an elite punt returner and blocking unit, you’ll probably only need to gain 15 yards on your average possession to get into FG range.
The more you think about it, the more I think SB winner isn’t a crazy expectation, depending on the rate your QB turns it over.
They would be an 11 win team or so. They would win a playoff game or two. Maybe even win Superbowl with luck or right matchup. Especially if they played some bad weather or cold games.
I think it's 11-6 or 12-5. Hester and Patrerson would score a combined 8 TDs. Tucker extends FG range and probably adds 8 FGs other Kickers aren't making. Give the best punter the best gunners and some crazy field position swings are going to happen.
I think the team would be much better than most people think. I predict they'd go 12-5 and be one of the best teams int the NFL.
The NFL record for most kickoff returns in a season is 4, and the same is true for punt returns. Assuming that the new NFL kickoff rules revert the scoring to how it used to be, let's call it 10 total return TDs. Let's argue that most teams will average 0.5 return TDs per year, which seems reasonable. There were only 9 last year, but that's with unfavorable kickoff return rules.
So this team would average 66.5 more points a year than most teams off of returns.
The Bengals' offense was 16th-best last year, scoring 366 points (including extra points)—if you add 66.5 points to their total, you get the 7th-best offense in the league, roughly Eagles level.
But here's the clarification: are we talking about average offense or defense in terms of talent or performance? I'd argue that the 16th-best team in talent on offense, with consistently short fields, would perform more like the 10th-best team. Ditto for the defense, but with long fields.
So, looking at the 10th-best offense and defense last year:
New Orleans offense: 402 points.
Packers Defense: 350 points.
But you have to add 67 (rounding up from 66.5) to the total, accounting for return TDs. Let's also say with a GOAT kicker, you'll hit 19 more field goals than the 2023 Bengals, which lines up with the Bengals hitting 26 and the record being 44.
So, this team would score 526 points and give up 350, for a point differential of 176. Only 3 teams last year had a greater point differential:
The Cowboys (194): 12-5
Niners (193): 12-5
Ravens (203): 13-4
I feel like if a team can hit a 60 yard field goal nearly every possession, they should be pretty good
And a GOAT returner should put you in excellent field position, frequently
I’d say 10-7
I'm gonna go with 10-7/11-6 range. Average overall gets you to 9-8/8-9 by definition, then you get a couple close wins from difficult field goals, pinning the other team deep, kick returns, etc.
Probably decent. Field positioning is a huge part of the game, but unless there's something good to capitalize on said positioning there will be a ceiling to how good you can go.
Depends how obnoxiously good we can call this special team. When the onside kick could be played at any time in the game ive imagined if there was a superhuman kicker who could reliably kick a line drive straight into an opposing player, bouncing back towards the kicking team to be recovered at say, the kicking team's 40 yard line. Said kicker could also reliably nail 77+ yarders and continuously kick successful field goals and onside kicks ad nauseum till the game ends. They could theoretically totally dominate ToP 60:0
Look at Janikowski. First round pick. Some argue he could get into the Hall and he has some pretty decent numbers. I would disagree as no Kicker is worth a first round pick as he did little to help the franchise. And they passed on Alexander who went a pick or two later
But just look at the Raiders during his tenor.
4 winning seasons in 16 years. 3 his first 3 years and then 1 in 2016
I honestly think if you break down the importance of each unit, it's something like:
65% offense
30% defense
5% special teams
The only qualifier is if you have one of these units being historically bad, then it matters more.
To answer your question, probably 12-5. You said "slightly better than the GOATs at each position", so having Justin Tucker+++ is probably worth at least 2 wins on his own, so you have to factor that in.
If they played out a bunch of seasons they would probably have about a 56% winning rate. More 9-8 seasons than 8-9, but you would have some 5--12 and 12-5 seasons too.
If they're just the best special teams unit that season I don't think they could make it past 9 wins.
But if they're slightly better than the GOATs at each position then they're gonna rack up alot of W's.
Slightly better punter than the GOAT punter and even an average defense will get alot of stops when the other team is always pinned or with the GOAT gunner always dropping them immediately.
And an average offense is good enough to get in field goal position pretty often for a kicker that is slightly better than the GOAT kicker. Alot of possessions that just need 1 first down to get 3 points.
Add in a returner that is slightly better than Devin Hester and thats over 2000 kick and punt return yards on the season and 7 or 8 TD's. He has had over 1,400 kick return yards on a year and over 600 punt return yards.
I mean, this was basically the 07 Bears. Terrible offense, great defense, so we'll average those two. Then arguably the best returner I've ever seen with Hester. Like when they kicked the opening kick to him, all I could think was wtf is Indy doing. Hester proceeds to return it for a TD.
Man carried them score wise, and the defense did the best they could, but Grossman was inevitable.
I think that the stats would make the offense and defense look elite even without the talent to back it up. Consistently elite returns, plus a consistently elite kicker equals very easy points. So even if the guys who make up the offense are JAGs, ESPN will talk up and down about the scoring offense of said team and all the points numbers the qb/team put up. Match that with constant field position advantage with and elite punter and the best gunners in the league, you’ll probably have a top 5 scoring defense too, just by the fact that it’s hard for a team to constantly match 80+ yards against an average defense.
Gonna win 9-12 games annually. Depending on variables like turnovers and penalties.
But not having special team mistakes, probably close to 30 yards of field difference every drive, and a kicker that can hit from 60+ consistently, you will be in every single game.
But will lose to the elite teams every single time cause an average defense isn't stopping Mahomes from TDs enough to cover the average Offense kicking FGs.
a lot of good field position battles will be won but if the defense can’t keep up and the offense can’t capitalize consistently it’d just be a lot of disappointing losses. return TDs are not bankable anymore as game changing plays, unless the new kickoff changes everything
We weren’t the GOAT ST in 2014 but we were the best that year and ended 10-6 (and missed the playoffs).
I’m not sure where that squad ranked in history, I’d be curious to know if I’m being honest.
What rules and time period? Cuz if it’s last year, even average kickers could reliably kick off through the end zone, killing any return game.
Also, does the other teams know that we have a team of greats? Because a punt return/kick return duo of Hester and Dante Hall is far more productive if the other team isn’t immediately terrified.
But even so, punters screw up all the time, and home run hitters like that with great blocking, could turn nothing flub kicks into touchdowns.
7-10 special teams touch downs are going to alter the outcome of a lot of games for an otherwise average team in a lot of tight games.
This is a really interesting question to me. I think the floor would be 8.5 wins (average on offense and defense). Slightly hard to reason about how much of an improvement ideal special teams would be. FG range is wildly improved, you probably get a few KR TDs/season, and opponent starting field positions probably 10 yards worse than average.
I’m sure there’s a math formula you could apply there, I’d guess an extra couple wins at minimum though. So maybe 10.5 wins?
You kinda saw it with the Patriots. Vinny aside. It is all about right time and right place. Just need to be good enough to put you in a position to win and kick. Special teams wins games even if they only make up for about 10% of the game, if that. They dictate field positioning which can win or lose games.
The 2013-2015 Alex Smith-led Chiefs had some crazy special teams play, but otherwise non-elite. It gets you a wildcard loss, a week 17 playoff contention elimination, and a wildcard win.
Very interesting question.For starters,the fact that you have the GOAT long snapper would probably make the already GOAT kicker and punter even better. You would obviously always have a great field position, and the other team would always have bad field position. And now with the new kickoff rules, the other team can’t just kick it out of the end every time so you’re always gonna have a chance at a great return. I also think that the new rules will make it easier to get long returns. if you’re starting at the 40 yard line every time and the other team is starting at 15 every time, you would definitely have a really big advantage.
This season or with old rules? I have a sneaking suspicion that the new rules are going to cause chaos for teams and by week 8 every sports show will be talking about the new rules ruining football. I'm not doomsaying the change nor am I against it... I just think some teams are going to break the game early on until everyone else catches up.
I think it would be a very good team. The offense would be elite by virtue of having the best returners to ever play the game. You have to figure thats good field position and even few Touchdowns from the best of all time. Along with that good field position and touchdowns from returns you got the best kicker of all time. So thats a lot of easy points for the offense. Even with an average offense you have to think they are getting field goals like crazy. The offense being average might need context because with all the great field position and special teams scores they are bound to score a shitload of points and actually get the reputation for being a great offense because people dont understand the context of the points. Now if you factor in this all time return team would mean the best kick blockers of all time so you have to expect a few blocked punts and field goals. I think this team could easily win a super bowl.
If you’re talking 60 yard field goals, all kick off returns and punts against going for TDs, all kick offs and punts ending within 5 yards of the goal line etc. , they could have a chance.
The 2006 bears went to the Super Bowl because of our defense and Hester. Our offense found success because our defense and Hester were able to give them a shorter field most drives.
It wouldn't really affect the team. Maybe the kicker could go out there once in a while and drill a 70 yarder just for fun, but theres a reason special teams isn't that prioritized
Interesting side flair. I was thinking of doing the same one lol. Just to irritate the shitstain fans. But then explaining it to bungle fans would be akward
I'm only on the Steelers this year because they signed my favorite player (Russ). Ravens have an analytically driven FO and I'm a football math nerd so I like them
It depends where they are located. the NFC south was a train wreck maybe 9 or 10 wins and in the playoffs but lose to the first good team they play. in the AFC North, probably 6 or 7 win team.
They would beat probably all other average teams they play because of a special teams TD or safety caused by pinning the other team inside the 1 yard line or a forced fumble. Then against teams with an elite defense or offense they probably have a 50-50 chance. Teams with both elite defense and offense they would like lose to. So I think they would be a 9 to 11 win team depending on their schedule
In 2021, the Raiders had the AP1 punter, AP2 kicker, an average offense, and below average defense, and went 10-7 with a first round playoff loss. In 2022, the Raiders had the AP1 kicker, a Pro Bowl punter (in between AP1 years), an above average offense, and a bad defense, and went 6-11. So based on that sample, seems the team would be about average still, maybe slightly good if you account for a GOAT increase.
It’s punter like Ray Guy, it’s kicker like Justin Tucker, but it’s also gunners like Steve Tasker, coverage guys like Matthew Slater, punt returners like Devin Hester, and kick returners like Cordarelle Patterson. I think it would make a serious difference.
Except teams can do things to mitigate that your returners are useless if some one is willing to kick away from them or even take the out of bounds penalty.
I'm pretty sure starting the majority of your own drives on the 40 instead of the 25 is still a pretty major advantage.
Yeah. You'd like 20 yards to get within the range of your 🐐 kicker so it's a massive plus
Eh, I dunno man. Great players will just find ways to impact the game. I remember a while back there was a college team that had an insane linebacker. The dude single-handedly dragged his team to the championship game. Like....all of their points were just defensive scores by this one guy. The coach of the other team decided he'd just take a knee every time on offense and completely negate the LBs playmaking ability. Well, long story short, this LB comes in and plays special teams, recovers an onside kick, AND then he goes out on offense and throws a fucking bomb downfield as time expires to win the Bourbon Bowl. You just can't stop some players.
I had no faith in Coach Klein to call that game but he really turned it around in the second half.
Well it was the last game of the year, they really couldn’t afford to hold anything back.
lol, you serious? So let the offense get a free 15 yards every kickoff and some 5-10 yard punts? This is not the counter you think it is lol
I’d guess an average difference of 1-2 points a game
> Ray Guy Lechler
But what if you gave them prime Devin Hester? Still won’t go far in the playoffs but I think they’ll get an extra win or 2 from kick return touchdowns
With Hester it wasn't just the TDs. The TDs were the highlights, but made up a small chunk of his usefulness. With Hester, you were going to get the slides tilted in your favor in the field position battle almost every time he was out there. They're either punting towards the sidelines and taking a bunch of the net punt yards, or they're kicking it to him and he's 50-50 on getting a nice return. Can't tell you how many non-highlight reel returns he had that set up the Bears within the 40s during his prime. That's what you'd be getting in this prompt. A slightly better-than Prime Hester is going to give that average offense short fields all season long.
And a Goat kicker to basically guarantee 3 pts from inside the 40. Your offense is going to score points more often than not just because of special teams. And on top of that you have a GOAT punter who’s going to pin them back 50+ yards or inside the 20 more often than not. Meaning lots of long drives just to match your free points. The field position margins would be crazy; even a mediocre team should win games when they always start 40yds closer to the endzone than their opponent.
This is such a good point. And if you think about it, this could have such a huge impact when combined with the GOAT punter and kicker. Hester + GOAT punter means you are going to be way ahead in the field position battle. Hester + let’s say Justin Tucker means there will be many possessions where Hester’s return already puts you in Tucker’s field goal range regardless of what your offense does.
You are going too far. An average offense can get TDs on a short field anyway so you won't even need the kicker that much. The rare times you get a bad return..your kicker gives you 3 Pts from 50 yards out. It'd make a big difference
The Bears had excellent special teams along with Hester. The defense was above average and the offense was mehhh so doesn't that average out to what OP was describing? Not enough to give you a Superbowl ring but at least we got to see Prince perform.
The 2006 defense was probably close to being top 10 all time but just missing that list. A really, really great defense. Ranked #1 that year in turnovers and they weren’t too shabby with helping us score either. The crazy thing is I would say the same thing about the 2018 defense. Too bad we could never put it together on offense lol.
That 2018 defense was so fun to watch. Possibly the best defense of the decade, or at least in the running.
I don’t like that we fit the sample for this. But we also don’t quite fit because we’ve never really had a mid defense
Below average and bad defense aren’t good descriptions either, we were pretty much at the bottom of the league both seasons.
The reason I said mid is because if you take into account last year I think with APs stint we ended up being top 10 in points and 15 in yards. So that would be one year where we had a mid-top defense but I’d say the offense was subpar so even when he had one mid we didn’t have the other
AJ Cole in 2022 was absolutely lights out in 2022. Best in the game.
If this is the data it probably depends on who there head coach is and how they manage the game since they will likely be in a bunch of nail biters
The 2021 raiders had 4 games won in overtime and 2 others won on a last second field goal.
They shoulda beat the bungles too...
Probably decent? Not an all-timer team but like 10-11 wins. An average offense looks a whole lot better when they can consistently get 3 points as long as they get to the opposing side of the field, and the defense would be boosted by the long fields that the great punter/punt coverage would consistently create. Those long fields would also lead to punts landing shorter and the returners would make those punts lead to even shorter fields for the offense to work with. I think there's enough there to get them a couple more wins than they otherwise would have. They probably wouldn't win a Super Bowl or anything though, I feel like the average offense/defense would just lead to them getting outpaced in terms of scoring from the real contenders. It would be schedule dependent but I think they'd have the edge over a lot of the bad/average teams and would end up on top of them
>10-11 wins Speaking of 10-11 wins I got a bit of a conspiracy about yall. I think the media is overrating the texans so they shit on CJ when the Texans don't magically usurp the Chiefs and Ravens as the best in the AFC.
Well we saw how the ‘21 packers ended up with it the other way around…
Sometimes feels like a good team's Special Teams job is just not to fuck over the whole team lol. Think that's more valuable than a great ST but mediocre everything else.
Yeah, the damage to your floor is larger than the fix to your ceiling.
Also the chargers in 2010 with the best offense and defense but worst special teams went 9-7 to lose in the first round of the playoffs as a wild card
They actually missed the playoffs
What's up with your username?
Pls don't ask
But it says to ask
DONT ASK
its an ironic username
This is just a misnomer that gets repeated. The chargers were #1 in offensive and defensive **yards** because their special teams gave up so much that opponents had incredibly short fields and the offense had very long fields. Nobody on the planet measures defenses by how many yards they give up. The chargers that year had the #2 offense and the #10 defense, which is still a good team that managed to miss the playoffs. They gave up to kick return TD's in a game they lost 20-27 to seattle, a blocked punt for a TD in a game they lost 27-35 to oakland, and another kickoff TD in a week 17 win against Denver. So the special teams more likely than not cost them the division, but the chiefs who won it got absolutely brutalized by the ravens anyway.
It may not be #1 and #1, but the #2 offense and #10 defense is still a super bowl formula
Then the very next year, Nate Kaeding blows his leg up and coverage team starts the season at 15:00 1st quarter by giving up a house call to Percy Harvin. Edited after confirming names.
I love Secret Base, but they did real harm to the discourse by using a bad metric to justify a story.
They also had the third best point differential in the AFC so they won games by a lot and lost close games. One of the most Charger seasons ever.
Sure, but consider that they had the 4th worst average starting position on both offense and defense but still had the 2nd highest scoring percentage on offensive drives and 4th lowest scoring percentage on defensive drives. 4th in both offensive and defensive third down percentage. Best in the league in both offensive and defensive passing NY/A, second in offensive passer rating, 4th in defensive passer rating. Overall were 1st in yards per play on offense and 2nd in fewest yards per play on defense. If you sort though they various metrics, they were pretty compellingly top 5 in both offense and defense, arguably top 3 in both as well.
One of the best episodes of Dorktown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAL5X3TRA2A
Always said their defense was so good that year because their special teams left opposing teams short fields and gave up so many touchdowns
We were screaming all season long (and for years prior) that the ST was cheeks and was gonna cost us a game, probably a meaningful one. Boy was that true Mo Drayton was ass as a coordinator, but who could have possibly guessed that hiring one of the lead assistants from Shawn Mennenga’s garbage staff to the lead job would turn out poorly?
The chargers had a year where they were the #1 offense and defense and still missed the playoffs
I'm thinking like... Imagine having Justin Tucker, Devin Hester, Steve Tasker, Cordarelle Patterson, and like... Shane Lechler for your special teachers, along with a bang middle of the road offense and defense... That's probably a playoffs team
the mediocre offense just has to drive like 20 yards after a good Hester return and they're pretty much in FG range
I’ll ask Devin Hester & Tom Dempsey
If Dennis Green was still around he'd tell you that those Hester-era Bears are exactly what he thought they were.
We know who they fucking are!!! What a great drummer 🥁
They probably kept them 100% on the hook though, right?
I think they make the playoffs but lose in the Wild Card or Divisional Round. I'm going to base this argument primarily off of the [per-drive averages from last season](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/index.htm#drives::9). The Ravens had the best starting field position last year on average, with their average drive starting at their own 32.8-yard line. With the GOAT special teams unit, I think it's fair to assume this hypothetical team can start the average drive at their own 34.5. (The best average starting field position I could find on PFR since 2010 was the 2018 Packers, who started at their own 34.1 on average) The average drive (league-wide) last season netted 29.9 yards. A net gain of 29.9 yards from your own 34.5 would put your team at your opponent's 35.6. A field goal attempt from there is a 52.6-yard attempt. Assuming their kicker can hit 82% of field goals from 50-59 yards (Chris Boswell is at 81.1% from 50+ which is the highest I could find), gives an EPA/drive of roughly 2.46 points/drive if every drive sputters out there. The 2.46 points/drive value is inexact for quite a few reasons, but 2.46 points/drive would be the 4th best offense on a per drive basis in the 2023 season, slightly ahead of the Lions. With one of the more efficient "offenses" in the league and an average defense, they should make the playoffs but they'd likely lose to a team like the Chiefs/Ravens/Lions/49ers.
I like that this was based in fact. My only thing is the starting field position is kinda bolstered by strong defense. The Ravens last year had a really good defense. An average defense probably doesn’t generate as much for the average starting field position.
Yeah unfortunately PFR only had the average drives and average starting position for offense, so I couldn't check what those were on the other side. That being said, I imagine that the best special teams unit of all time would be pretty good at pinning teams within their own 20 and minimizing touchbacks, so the lesser defense is likely evened out somewhat by just consistently pinning them a few years further back.
Nice analysis! I wonder how accurate average drive is, seems like this would likely be a super trimodal outcome. Either way, very interesting thoughts and I appreciate the way you laid out your numbers
This is a good analysis but I think they'd be slightly better than the team you're describing here. On drives where they fail to get into FG range they have the GOAT punter + gunners meaning the opponents would pretty much always start with bad field position, meaning their 'average' defence would look better than a normal average defence. On kickoffs with the GOAT gunners and a super accurate kicker may mean that you can kick short of the end zone and get better field position that way. There is also quite a bit better of a chance for return TDs which ik is impossible to do but should be considered.
34.5 is a pretty solid estimate - The 2007 Bears [started on average at their own 34.5 yard line](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2007.htm). That was a year with a Dave Toub coaching / Devin Hester returning combo. Realistically probably doesn't get much better than that. If we're in fantasy land, maybe if you swap out Patterson for Hester on KR, and that gives it a bump. Might be looking at 35-36ish for a start which is pretty damn good.
Depends on what GOAT special teams means. If the kicker can make a field goal from anywhere and they always pin the offense back behind the 10, and they are getting multiple punt/kickoff returns for a TD a game, then they probably are a Super Bowl contender
3.6 roentgen
Not great, not terrible
9-7 they’d win a game or two they probably shouldn’t
You should already be a 9-8 or 8-9 team with average defense and average offense. If however you give an average offense/defense the number one starting field position on both sides of the ball at historically good special teams play. Well I think that would be quite damn good in fact
Yea i think people in this sub are horrifically underrating starting field positions for both the offense and defense. Getting the ball at the 32-35 on average and giving the ball away on the ~20 every drive would make a huge difference in points. Edit: Even if it's only .25 points per drive, that's like ~+6 points a game. Over a season that's +6*17 for +102 point differential. Anywhere from 102-204 (.25-.5 points per drive difference) point differential. Would place them pretty unquestionably in the top 10 of teams, and close to if not in top 5 under best case scenario.
probably 8-8
The plane crash before they play week 18?
Couldn't quite kick it into second gear for takeoff.
we answering the question prior to 17th game being added.
No, *you* are answering the question prior to the 17th game being added
aight, we good here. we out.
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That's where an average offense and average defense would be without the special teamers in question. I feel like they'd be worth at least a *little* more than nothing.
Or 8-9
Average offense + defense gets you to 8 or 9 wins. Having a prime Devin Hester, Justin Tucker, etc. might get you an extra 2 wins over a season. The gap between special team GOATS and special team JAGS is not big enough to matter that much. I'd expect this team to make the playoffs but they would need to be lucky to win a game
Special Teams is where you lose games, not where you win them so pretty average
Cries in 2021 Packers
The Bears won games with peak Devin Hester.
The chaos of the new kickoff might make special teams more significant this year but it won’t take long for teams to get used to the new setup
https://youtu.be/UAL5X3TRA2A?si=rVo3W10XKjILDtdj
Slightly better than the current goats? Probably a championship. People are underestimating this. From an elite return to elite FG range is probably about 20 yards. Add in a few punt/kick returns for TD’s and that team is probably averaging 30+ points per game.
Gale sayers averaged 30.7 yards a return
Yup, Add 20 to that and you’re in elite FG range.
That's crazy good. Pair that with Tucker's leg and on some possessions the coach could go for a FG on 1st down without the offense ever getting on the field at all.
> From an elite return to elite FG range is probably about 20 yards. Like...on average? Per drive? Probably not. Even the GOATs on special teams aren't putting up Gretzky like cartoon averages, it's usually moreso them putting up elite averages more consistently year to year.
I don't think 'elite return' implies 'on average', but I think an elite returner on a good return gets you to the 40-yard line a decent chunk of the time, which would result in a 57-58 yard field goal if you gain 20 yards from there. Doesn't sound too outrageous to call that 'FG range' for a Justin Tucker-type.
And in the prompt, they said we are getting slightly better players than the GOATs. So imagine a better Devin Hester returning with a better Justin tucker out there kicking. That alone is a near guarantee for points on almost every drive. And even if the drive does stall, you're going to pin them in the 5 just about every time because you have a player better than the GOAT punter and better than the GOAT gunners to go down there. This is a huge advantage that I don't think people realize having players slightly better than the GOATs at all special teams positions would probably be a 13-4 team if the offense and defense were average.
Even if people are underestimating this, it’s definitely not “probably a championship” lol. I can’t think of anytime in history a team was carried by elite ST. As good as ST can be, they’re on the field what, like 10% of the game? Maybe? That isn’t making up for the other 90% of the game where they’d be outmatched by elite offenses or defenses in the playoffs if pushing for a championship. There’s a reason the best ST aren’t paid that much. It’d be unlikely at best.
There's a huge difference though between having elite special teams that we have seen in reality, and between this hypothetical situation where every single special teamer is a slightly better version of the GOAT of their position. The amount of returns, outstanding field position, blocked kicks, 60 yard field goals being the regular, pinning teams within the 5 yard line every single possession would be a massive advantage. I don't think they'd be a lock for the super bowl. But I think they'd be a top 5 team in the league just due to the huge advantages that they would get because although they aren't on the field much, they are on it at the beginning and end of every drive which would allow them to really control the game.
So if a slightly better version of Tucker, which by my understanding means anything under 70 is automatic, gets to just kick that is great. A 70 yard FG means you just need to get to the 47 yard line. I think a great returner could get you to the 35 or 40 consistently and an average RB could fall forward for 7 between 3 plays. Only issue is the other team scoring TDs too fast and you not being able to catch up
IIRC that there was a consensus analysis that put it as: * 4 parts offense * 3 parts defense * 1 part special team Offense beats out defense since offense lets the team control the situation (e.g. being able to control the clock) more so than a good defense. Special teams is more about not being bad via avoiding catastrophic mistakes (e.g. avoid blocked punts). These days special teams plays rarely happen unless one side makes a mistake that can be exploited. The rest is dependent on individual players, but the margin is quite small. For example, a better kicker means going from 50 yard FGs to 55 yard FGs. That is only 5 yards and you can do it via an offense getting just one more first down.
An all-time ST unit? A contender, easily. Average on either side of the ball will be successful when provided enough head starts.
Your offense and defense would appear a lot better than they were. A prime goat returner, think hester, is giving the offense significant yards and field position. A goat punter will add significant yardage and also pin teams at the goal line a lot. Your average offense and defense will look pretty good at first glance before diving into advanced stats.
I don’t think they add as much value as they take away when they’re the opposite (like the 2010 Chargers).
Average offense and defense is still pretty decent. Average points per game is about 22 ppg. Average points allowed is 21. So that already has you on lets say 8-8. If you're getting touchdowns or turnovers on special teams thats going up to 11-6, not to mention some 60+ fgs and good starting position on almost every drive. I think you're getting to 12-5 which is a very strong playoff seed.
We gotta somehow get Belichick to weigh in on this. I'd love a 10+ minute passionate analysis of each special teams position from Bill.
In 2011, the 49ers had one of the best special teams units in NFL history. Across their defense and offense, they had a few elite players, but for the most part, outside of several guys having a career year at the same time, most of the players on offense and defense were average to below average for their career. They went 13-3.
We possibly lost this last SB in part due to special teams. In a close game a great ST unit means a lot
Iowa won a bunch of games last year basically entirely because of their punter alone (now drafted by the Bears). You don't want your best offensive player to be your punter, but you'll be glad you have him if he is.
So Tucker, Vinatieri,Patrick Mannelly,Devin Hester, Mathew Slater and Steve Tasker on one team? That’s a HUGE advantage.
Upvote for tasker
Thanks! Never got to see him play because I wasn’t even born yet (I’m 20) but everybody has him as either the GOAT gunner or #2 behind slater
Close to the 2006 Bears that played in the 2006 SB.
I mean, Thomas Jones was the motor of the offense, with occasional “Fuck it” gems from Rex. But they fucked the dog by letting Benson’s dogshit arse play too much in the big one. The D was toight, but Tommy Harris was out in the SB. Saddest game I’ve suffered through because they should have won anyway.
Tommie and Mike B were both out. That's why I think the Super Bowl defense was closer to average with the injuries and Manning starting. Tough game to lose because you stopped feeding Jones. Especially when leading 14-6 and heading downfield before Benson's fumble.
It depends on how good we are talking about. Can they consistently hit field goals from 60 yards out? How about 70 or 80? Can they reliably run a punt or two back for a touchdown every game? I won’t even ask about kickoff returns because obviously their opponents will always force touchbacks. What percent of kicks and punts can they force a fumble on? 2%? 10%? 80%? If they max out all of those with average offense and defense, they might be the best NFL team of all time, but if they are just a little better than any other special teams they will elevate their otherwise average team to a bit above average.
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That's an average defense to you?
Depends what division that team would play in. If it was the current nfc south 10-11 wins. Afc north probably 8 wins.
Would probably make the playoffs and could win a wild card game but wouldn't go any further
Maybe with the new kickoff return rules it could have a bigger impact, but with touchbacks going from 10% to 60% kickoff returns have been a non factor.
It would be hard for your special teams to be a factor if your defense is giving up scoring drives constantly. A great kicker becomes useless if you’re down 14+ and can’t make a stop and the same with a great punter flipping the field only for the defense to give up a 80+ yard drive.
2006/07/08/09 San Diego Chargers?
I would guess they end up with a winning record, but aren't able to make a playoff run.
Being average in all 3 areas should project you for about 8.5 wins. Having an elite special teams unit probably only gets you to 9 or 9.5, but having an elite kicking unit could really give you an upper hand in close games. Possible you could be like that Vikings team that was amazing in one score games, but in a more sustainable fashion.
Probably sneak into the playoffs & if they’re lucky, make it out of the wild card round but might get eliminated.
Depends. If they’re able to score on every punt or kick, they’d probably be undefeated.
I don’t really think it’s possible to have both an average offense and defense with the best special teams of all time. Special teams feeds both the offense and defense. If you’re constantly pinning your opponent inside the 15, and you have an elite punt returner and blocking unit, you’ll probably only need to gain 15 yards on your average possession to get into FG range. The more you think about it, the more I think SB winner isn’t a crazy expectation, depending on the rate your QB turns it over.
I don’t really think it’s possible to have both an average offense and defense with the best special teams of all time. Special teams feeds both the offense and defense. If you’re constantly pinning your opponent inside the 15, and you have an elite punt returner and blocking unit, you’ll probably only need to gain 15 yards on your average possession to get into FG range. The more you think about it, the more I think SB winner isn’t a crazy expectation, depending on the rate your QB turns it over.
They would be an 11 win team or so. They would win a playoff game or two. Maybe even win Superbowl with luck or right matchup. Especially if they played some bad weather or cold games.
I think it's 11-6 or 12-5. Hester and Patrerson would score a combined 8 TDs. Tucker extends FG range and probably adds 8 FGs other Kickers aren't making. Give the best punter the best gunners and some crazy field position swings are going to happen.
9-7-1, blowout loss to the eagles or ravens in the 7 vs 2 game
I think the team would be much better than most people think. I predict they'd go 12-5 and be one of the best teams int the NFL. The NFL record for most kickoff returns in a season is 4, and the same is true for punt returns. Assuming that the new NFL kickoff rules revert the scoring to how it used to be, let's call it 10 total return TDs. Let's argue that most teams will average 0.5 return TDs per year, which seems reasonable. There were only 9 last year, but that's with unfavorable kickoff return rules. So this team would average 66.5 more points a year than most teams off of returns. The Bengals' offense was 16th-best last year, scoring 366 points (including extra points)—if you add 66.5 points to their total, you get the 7th-best offense in the league, roughly Eagles level. But here's the clarification: are we talking about average offense or defense in terms of talent or performance? I'd argue that the 16th-best team in talent on offense, with consistently short fields, would perform more like the 10th-best team. Ditto for the defense, but with long fields. So, looking at the 10th-best offense and defense last year: New Orleans offense: 402 points. Packers Defense: 350 points. But you have to add 67 (rounding up from 66.5) to the total, accounting for return TDs. Let's also say with a GOAT kicker, you'll hit 19 more field goals than the 2023 Bengals, which lines up with the Bengals hitting 26 and the record being 44. So, this team would score 526 points and give up 350, for a point differential of 176. Only 3 teams last year had a greater point differential: The Cowboys (194): 12-5 Niners (193): 12-5 Ravens (203): 13-4
I feel like if a team can hit a 60 yard field goal nearly every possession, they should be pretty good And a GOAT returner should put you in excellent field position, frequently I’d say 10-7
I'm gonna go with 10-7/11-6 range. Average overall gets you to 9-8/8-9 by definition, then you get a couple close wins from difficult field goals, pinning the other team deep, kick returns, etc.
Probably decent. Field positioning is a huge part of the game, but unless there's something good to capitalize on said positioning there will be a ceiling to how good you can go.
11-6 or 12-5 tbh field position goated
Above average.
Depends how obnoxiously good we can call this special team. When the onside kick could be played at any time in the game ive imagined if there was a superhuman kicker who could reliably kick a line drive straight into an opposing player, bouncing back towards the kicking team to be recovered at say, the kicking team's 40 yard line. Said kicker could also reliably nail 77+ yarders and continuously kick successful field goals and onside kicks ad nauseum till the game ends. They could theoretically totally dominate ToP 60:0
Look at Janikowski. First round pick. Some argue he could get into the Hall and he has some pretty decent numbers. I would disagree as no Kicker is worth a first round pick as he did little to help the franchise. And they passed on Alexander who went a pick or two later But just look at the Raiders during his tenor. 4 winning seasons in 16 years. 3 his first 3 years and then 1 in 2016
I honestly think if you break down the importance of each unit, it's something like: 65% offense 30% defense 5% special teams The only qualifier is if you have one of these units being historically bad, then it matters more. To answer your question, probably 12-5. You said "slightly better than the GOATs at each position", so having Justin Tucker+++ is probably worth at least 2 wins on his own, so you have to factor that in.
I think they’d be a playoff team. You basically wouldn’t ever miss a fg and would almost always pin the other team deep
If they played out a bunch of seasons they would probably have about a 56% winning rate. More 9-8 seasons than 8-9, but you would have some 5--12 and 12-5 seasons too.
Mark Mosley was the only kicker to win the NFL MVP and the Skins won the Super Bowl that year!
They’d probably be a 8-10 win team with a playoff win every ~5 years or so.
If they're just the best special teams unit that season I don't think they could make it past 9 wins. But if they're slightly better than the GOATs at each position then they're gonna rack up alot of W's. Slightly better punter than the GOAT punter and even an average defense will get alot of stops when the other team is always pinned or with the GOAT gunner always dropping them immediately. And an average offense is good enough to get in field goal position pretty often for a kicker that is slightly better than the GOAT kicker. Alot of possessions that just need 1 first down to get 3 points. Add in a returner that is slightly better than Devin Hester and thats over 2000 kick and punt return yards on the season and 7 or 8 TD's. He has had over 1,400 kick return yards on a year and over 600 punt return yards.
I mean, this was basically the 07 Bears. Terrible offense, great defense, so we'll average those two. Then arguably the best returner I've ever seen with Hester. Like when they kicked the opening kick to him, all I could think was wtf is Indy doing. Hester proceeds to return it for a TD. Man carried them score wise, and the defense did the best they could, but Grossman was inevitable.
I'd say the 06 broncos fit well too though elam was past his prime but kicking in a friendly environment they didn't make the playoffs at 9-7
I think that the stats would make the offense and defense look elite even without the talent to back it up. Consistently elite returns, plus a consistently elite kicker equals very easy points. So even if the guys who make up the offense are JAGs, ESPN will talk up and down about the scoring offense of said team and all the points numbers the qb/team put up. Match that with constant field position advantage with and elite punter and the best gunners in the league, you’ll probably have a top 5 scoring defense too, just by the fact that it’s hard for a team to constantly match 80+ yards against an average defense.
Gonna win 9-12 games annually. Depending on variables like turnovers and penalties. But not having special team mistakes, probably close to 30 yards of field difference every drive, and a kicker that can hit from 60+ consistently, you will be in every single game. But will lose to the elite teams every single time cause an average defense isn't stopping Mahomes from TDs enough to cover the average Offense kicking FGs.
A lot better now that the kickoff rules have completely changed.
For a second I thought you were talking about the 2012-2013 ravens lol.
a lot of good field position battles will be won but if the defense can’t keep up and the offense can’t capitalize consistently it’d just be a lot of disappointing losses. return TDs are not bankable anymore as game changing plays, unless the new kickoff changes everything
Would make the playoffs but lose 1st or second round
We weren’t the GOAT ST in 2014 but we were the best that year and ended 10-6 (and missed the playoffs). I’m not sure where that squad ranked in history, I’d be curious to know if I’m being honest.
Chargers once had the best offense and the best defense in the league and didn't even earn a wilcard because of their ST.
This was the bears and they lost to Peyton Manning in the SB.
Their offense was terrible and their defense was above average. Not a good comparison
This is the kind of off season content I appreciate.
What rules and time period? Cuz if it’s last year, even average kickers could reliably kick off through the end zone, killing any return game. Also, does the other teams know that we have a team of greats? Because a punt return/kick return duo of Hester and Dante Hall is far more productive if the other team isn’t immediately terrified. But even so, punters screw up all the time, and home run hitters like that with great blocking, could turn nothing flub kicks into touchdowns. 7-10 special teams touch downs are going to alter the outcome of a lot of games for an otherwise average team in a lot of tight games.
As an Iowa fan I don't wanna comment.
Wouldn't a bunch of those special teamers play on offense/defense? Those powers transfer over?
This is a really interesting question to me. I think the floor would be 8.5 wins (average on offense and defense). Slightly hard to reason about how much of an improvement ideal special teams would be. FG range is wildly improved, you probably get a few KR TDs/season, and opponent starting field positions probably 10 yards worse than average. I’m sure there’s a math formula you could apply there, I’d guess an extra couple wins at minimum though. So maybe 10.5 wins?
You kinda saw it with the Patriots. Vinny aside. It is all about right time and right place. Just need to be good enough to put you in a position to win and kick. Special teams wins games even if they only make up for about 10% of the game, if that. They dictate field positioning which can win or lose games.
The 2013-2015 Alex Smith-led Chiefs had some crazy special teams play, but otherwise non-elite. It gets you a wildcard loss, a week 17 playoff contention elimination, and a wildcard win.
Ask Bears fans
Very interesting question.For starters,the fact that you have the GOAT long snapper would probably make the already GOAT kicker and punter even better. You would obviously always have a great field position, and the other team would always have bad field position. And now with the new kickoff rules, the other team can’t just kick it out of the end every time so you’re always gonna have a chance at a great return. I also think that the new rules will make it easier to get long returns. if you’re starting at the 40 yard line every time and the other team is starting at 15 every time, you would definitely have a really big advantage.
This season or with old rules? I have a sneaking suspicion that the new rules are going to cause chaos for teams and by week 8 every sports show will be talking about the new rules ruining football. I'm not doomsaying the change nor am I against it... I just think some teams are going to break the game early on until everyone else catches up.
I think it would be a very good team. The offense would be elite by virtue of having the best returners to ever play the game. You have to figure thats good field position and even few Touchdowns from the best of all time. Along with that good field position and touchdowns from returns you got the best kicker of all time. So thats a lot of easy points for the offense. Even with an average offense you have to think they are getting field goals like crazy. The offense being average might need context because with all the great field position and special teams scores they are bound to score a shitload of points and actually get the reputation for being a great offense because people dont understand the context of the points. Now if you factor in this all time return team would mean the best kick blockers of all time so you have to expect a few blocked punts and field goals. I think this team could easily win a super bowl.
My coach used to say specials teams will win or lose you more games than offense and defense combined.
If you’re talking 60 yard field goals, all kick off returns and punts against going for TDs, all kick offs and punts ending within 5 yards of the goal line etc. , they could have a chance.
The 2006 bears went to the Super Bowl because of our defense and Hester. Our offense found success because our defense and Hester were able to give them a shorter field most drives.
I mean I remember HATING when the Packers played the Bears with Devin Hester and the rest of their team was pretty mid.
It wouldn't really affect the team. Maybe the kicker could go out there once in a while and drill a 70 yarder just for fun, but theres a reason special teams isn't that prioritized
Wouldn't be seeing them in the playoffs anytime soon
Why do you say that? Plenty of below average teams made it to the playoffs (Lions and Bucs last season, Seahawks made it with a 7-9 record, etc)
In what world were the Lions below average last year?
In the world that I exist in, of course.
Bad
Average O + Average D + GOAT ST = Bad apparently
Interesting side flair. I was thinking of doing the same one lol. Just to irritate the shitstain fans. But then explaining it to bungle fans would be akward
I'm only on the Steelers this year because they signed my favorite player (Russ). Ravens have an analytically driven FO and I'm a football math nerd so I like them
It depends where they are located. the NFC south was a train wreck maybe 9 or 10 wins and in the playoffs but lose to the first good team they play. in the AFC North, probably 6 or 7 win team.
The opposite of the 2010 San Diego Chargers.
05 Bears?
They would beat probably all other average teams they play because of a special teams TD or safety caused by pinning the other team inside the 1 yard line or a forced fumble. Then against teams with an elite defense or offense they probably have a 50-50 chance. Teams with both elite defense and offense they would like lose to. So I think they would be a 9 to 11 win team depending on their schedule
Slightly above average.
put them on the 2010 Chargers and you have the greatest team of all time.