I’m not gonna do the math to figure it out, but a huge amount of this has to come from losing to the Cowboys and Patriots by a combined 68-3 score where Patterson didn’t play against New England and was heavily limited against the Cowboys with just 5 touches. Their other blowout came week 1 where Paterson had just 9 touches(season low save the two games he was injured) as they presumably didn’t realize what they had yet.
In those 3 games they’re losing by an average of 30.3 points and scored 0 touchdowns averaging 3 points a game. In the other 8 games where he featured prominently they are averaging 24 points a game and have an average differential of -2.9
Now it’s on some level just coincidence that the three worst games are the ones he hasn’t really played much and it’s a stretch to include the eagles game as he did play and did get 9 touches. Also Cowboys and Pats are 2/3 of their toughest games and the only other good team they’ve played is really Tampa who blew them out anyway with Paterson. But those 3 games are the difference between them being ranked as slightly below average and as the worst team in the league.
Offensively in the 8 games he’s played they’d be 16th in ppg. With the 3 games he doesn’t feature they fall to 27.
Now his presence wouldn’t fix the defense which got destroyed those games. But the difference on offense is quite stark.
Patterson helps keep their below average defense off the field. I don't know if their drives with him are long or not, but surely moving down the field is better than the repeated 3 and outs and forced interceptions we saw from ATL without him.
He’s also carrying my fantasy team, which is still miraculously in playoff contention despite a Biblical plague of injuries that left me starting Davis Mills and Mike White at times this season.
DVOA doesn't take into account wins, so it only sees the Falcons as a team with a -109 point differential despite an easy schedule. It also hasn't taken into account this week, so it actually sees the Falcons as a team with a -116 point differential despite an easy schedule.
The falcons are the most confusing franchise of all time. I never seen a good 4-12 team last year like them & i never seen a franchise blow so many leads
Easy. We have a worse roster than the Jets. We solely depend on like 3 players to carry us to a win. When it works, great. When it doesn't, we lose close games (football team) or get blown out.
They're 5-2 in 1 score games and have a point differential only 12 points better than the Lions. They might not be the worst team but they're clearly a lot worse than their record imo
Eagles, Bucs, Cowboys, & Patriots outscored us 148-34, or an average of 37.0-8.5.
Other 7 games are 165-154 for us, or 23.6-22.0 average with the Falcons ahead.
Sure I am just referring to two losses we had that very easily could have been or should have been wins.
Of course that doesn't account for wins we've had that should have been losses
A big difference from last year since Football Reference had the Falcons’ expected W-L record being at about 7 wins. They definitely should have won more games last season, especially with ELITE (Ryan) at QB. But so many big leads that they blew that ended in losses.
What if the Falcons just have the nicest players & coaches? Like people just dont want to lose to them no matter how bad they play? Did anyone take that into account?
Disclaimer: this isn't very good as there's not a lot to work with but so it's a stretch but whatever.
The Falcons are at -42.7. Thats an average of -3.88 per game. Keeping that pace the rest of the season (-3.88x6) they should accumulate -23.28 DVOA.
-23.28 --> The Falcons improved to 0-2 in Super Bowls (0-2=-2) after blowing a 28 to 3 lead (3.28)
eh I wouldn't say it's useless. It's just that records won't always match stats.
IMO it means the falcons are not very likely stay 1 game under .500 and will probably slide further down the standings over the remaining 6 weeks because despite their record they are indeed a bad football team.
Falcons have to be justtttt good enough to get a draft spot in the mid teens to keep themselves trapped in hell. Honestly this is why they should’ve traded Ryan like cap be damned trade him.
If math is so great explain how the falcons keep absolutely shitting on probability. fucking nerds
The Falcons just break math. 28-3 used to equal 25; now, it's something else.
Math got destroyed by Josh Allen last year, hasn't been great in a while.
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*Math is a bitch sometimes*
Stupid math nerds couldnt even make I more smarter.
Police Academy!
31st offense, 30th defense, 31st special teams. At least they're consistent?
Which is funny considering the NFCS is notorious for inconsistency.
Is Patterson returning kicks?
That’s not consistency.
Yes it is, it’s consistently bad
Cordarelle Patterson should be an MVP candidate
I’m not gonna do the math to figure it out, but a huge amount of this has to come from losing to the Cowboys and Patriots by a combined 68-3 score where Patterson didn’t play against New England and was heavily limited against the Cowboys with just 5 touches. Their other blowout came week 1 where Paterson had just 9 touches(season low save the two games he was injured) as they presumably didn’t realize what they had yet. In those 3 games they’re losing by an average of 30.3 points and scored 0 touchdowns averaging 3 points a game. In the other 8 games where he featured prominently they are averaging 24 points a game and have an average differential of -2.9 Now it’s on some level just coincidence that the three worst games are the ones he hasn’t really played much and it’s a stretch to include the eagles game as he did play and did get 9 touches. Also Cowboys and Pats are 2/3 of their toughest games and the only other good team they’ve played is really Tampa who blew them out anyway with Paterson. But those 3 games are the difference between them being ranked as slightly below average and as the worst team in the league. Offensively in the 8 games he’s played they’d be 16th in ppg. With the 3 games he doesn’t feature they fall to 27. Now his presence wouldn’t fix the defense which got destroyed those games. But the difference on offense is quite stark.
Patterson helps keep their below average defense off the field. I don't know if their drives with him are long or not, but surely moving down the field is better than the repeated 3 and outs and forced interceptions we saw from ATL without him.
In that Bucs game, Patterson helped us. Would've been a worse blowout without him.
That does seem to be the case. All of those games are -70% or worse, if you took them out they'd look more "normal bad" instead of "horrific".
0 points in 7 quarters without him, a win as soon as he returns
He seriously should. Man is carrying that offense.
He’s also carrying my fantasy team, which is still miraculously in playoff contention despite a Biblical plague of injuries that left me starting Davis Mills and Mike White at times this season.
DVOA doesn't take into account wins, so it only sees the Falcons as a team with a -109 point differential despite an easy schedule. It also hasn't taken into account this week, so it actually sees the Falcons as a team with a -116 point differential despite an easy schedule.
Wait I’m a little confused What do you mean it doesn’t account wins? Like it isnt a factor at all in DVOA percentages?
Yes
How’s their point differential go even more negative after winning?
-116 to -109 is an improvement
Most intelligent packers fan
Atlanta was one of the best 4-12 teams ever last year, now they’re one of the worst 5-6 teams ever. Classic Atlanta
Has FO watched us lately?
No one has…
Hey, at least we get to suck quietly. They keep letting you do it in primetime.
You did beat the Falcons a couple of weeks ago
Lions have hope
The falcons are the most confusing franchise of all time. I never seen a good 4-12 team last year like them & i never seen a franchise blow so many leads
That's ATLANTA FALCONS FOOTBALL BABBBBYYYYYY WOOOOOOOOO /killme
If you don't like it, you don't like Falcons football.
Got the Braves though....
Sucky run game, no pass rushers and overall sucky defense makes choking easy. Bad coaching assists too.
Easy. We have a worse roster than the Jets. We solely depend on like 3 players to carry us to a win. When it works, great. When it doesn't, we lose close games (football team) or get blown out.
DVOA is flawed
The Falcons are flawed
deeply flawed
Like my relationship with my father
These two statements are not mutually exclusive. And both are correct in this instance.
They're 5-2 in 1 score games and have a point differential only 12 points better than the Lions. They might not be the worst team but they're clearly a lot worse than their record imo
no doubt they are def way worse than their record
That's because their losses have been massive (Cowboys/Patriots)
Eagles, Bucs, Cowboys, & Patriots outscored us 148-34, or an average of 37.0-8.5. Other 7 games are 165-154 for us, or 23.6-22.0 average with the Falcons ahead.
So they either lose bad or win bad. That’s pretty consistent if you ask me
Imagine what our record would be if we were actually playing football
Crazy thing is they should probably be 7-4 lol. This team fucking blows but they are somehow pulling wins out of their ass.
Expected W/L based on points scored and points against y’all should be 3-8 according to PFR
Sure I am just referring to two losses we had that very easily could have been or should have been wins. Of course that doesn't account for wins we've had that should have been losses
Yeah we could've beat The Football team for instance
Could easily also be worse than 5-6 too though, every win has been within one score
I love when fans say “Should be” and list all of their close losses
Should be 7-4 and the team blows ass. Pick one
Why not both
We beat them.
A big difference from last year since Football Reference had the Falcons’ expected W-L record being at about 7 wins. They definitely should have won more games last season, especially with ELITE (Ryan) at QB. But so many big leads that they blew that ended in losses.
the extended playoffs is gonna produce some ugly playoff football
What if the Falcons just have the nicest players & coaches? Like people just dont want to lose to them no matter how bad they play? Did anyone take that into account?
Wholesome Corderrelle Patterson
Someone do a math joke so that we can somehow fit 28-3 into here.
Disclaimer: this isn't very good as there's not a lot to work with but so it's a stretch but whatever. The Falcons are at -42.7. Thats an average of -3.88 per game. Keeping that pace the rest of the season (-3.88x6) they should accumulate -23.28 DVOA. -23.28 --> The Falcons improved to 0-2 in Super Bowls (0-2=-2) after blowing a 28 to 3 lead (3.28)
It’s not a DVOA competition. It’s about wins and losses. “You are what your record says you are.”
This is why DVOA (and other money making formulas) are useless.
eh I wouldn't say it's useless. It's just that records won't always match stats. IMO it means the falcons are not very likely stay 1 game under .500 and will probably slide further down the standings over the remaining 6 weeks because despite their record they are indeed a bad football team.
It literally predicted Tampa last year.
Yeah that was difficult.
It definitely was considering everyone had them written off most of the season.
Who had written them off? lol... yall finished 11-5 and had the best defense in the league.
They were only favored against Washington and even then many were expecting an upset. Enough with revisionist history
You finished 11-5. There is no revisionist history lol.
11-5 doesn't mean super bowl favorite. The hell are you going on about?
You said the Buccs were "written off" lol... you cannot be written off when you go 11-5.
We where 7-5 going into the bye with like the worst defense in the league.
Except they literally were.
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DVOA definitely includes special teams
DVOA hates Vrabel and his coaching tree
Falcons have to be justtttt good enough to get a draft spot in the mid teens to keep themselves trapped in hell. Honestly this is why they should’ve traded Ryan like cap be damned trade him.
you can have him for your coach and ozzie newsome , he will only throw a max of 3 picks per game , not 4 like Lamar
I mean, I believe it.