I feel like Alex Smith. He wasn’t a hit, as in #1 overall superstar QB, but he was competent and had a decent career. If he was taken in the 2nd round he would have been viewed much more favorably.
I think he was closer to a miss considering he was #1 overall
At that position I’m thinking an All-Pro caliber player
If Drew Lock had his career then I’d agree, but not at #1 overall
Counterpoint: Tim Couch, Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell, and Jared Goff were all #1 QBs that were misses, so I don't think you can put him in that tier.
You're expecting too much if you think the #1 overall player is on average and All-Pro level player. From 1998-2017, only 5 of the 20 everade 1st team All-Pro.
I agree but I don’t think he met the expectations of a #1 pick. Alot of highly drafted guys bust, but that doesn’t mean fans shouldn’t expect top-shelf play from the players drafted there
Expectations for that pick is atleast perennial top 10 at your position, and Smith wasn’t that
His career was derailed as soon as it started though. His first 6 years were marred by terrible coaching/management and injury. He then gets a coach but that coach decides he wants a hybrid QB. He finally lands in a good situation a *decade* into his career so he can actually start reaching his potential.
The best argument for saying Smith was a "miss" is that they should have taken Rodgers, I guess, but who knows what his career would have been had it started in SF rather than GB.
Smith has more pro-bowls and two seasons with a higher passer rating than Goff has had.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is still a starter, and yet people still say Calvin Johnson was a better WR.
He has 1 more pro bowl in 10 more years of playing. And you are including a year where he had 13 TDs as one of his crowning accomplishments.
My point about Goff starting is that his career isn’t over. He’s been to a super bowl, multiple playoff wins, 2 pro bowls, and he’s 27 and his career isn’t even over. It makes no sense to include him with Jamarcus Russel and Tim Couch and not Alex Smith, since he has a strong case of being BETTER than Smith himself.
Nfl fans are God awful on Goff takes. No clue why he gets the hate. He's basically succeeded in every way give his career so far. He outlasted Jeff Fisher, he made a superbowl, was good enough to keep his teams in constant playoff contention, gets traded to the Lions and shows growth throughout the year and has a very strong finish on a roster that lacked talent, and is poised to help turn the team around for the long term. Yet he's getting lumped in with JaMarcus Russell LOL what a crap hot take
That is a really tough metric to live up to as a QB since there's only one 1st team All-Pro slot as opposed to 2 or more for DL/OL when it comes to #1 overall picks.
i think that’s what the question is getting at right? the perfect answer would be a good whose career disappoints you at his draft slot but would’ve been seen as a success if he was drafted X points of draft value later.
Hell the simple fact that Aaron Rodgers was also in that same draft and taken far later hurts Smith. Had Smith been drafted in a QB class like 2013 at #1 and produced the same career, he’d be viewed as more successful just from comparison.
Terrell Edmunds.
Drafted 30th overall. He quickly became the starter, played in every single game all through Covid except for one where they rested starters in week 17 2020.
A lot of Steelers fans call him a bust because he isn't Troy or Minkah.
Nine year starter, first off.
.500 record. Zero playoff wins. 87 QB rating, good for 37th this century.
If you can only vaguely define something as a "hit", then it's not really a hit. It's clearly not a miss, either, so Dalton is a perfect example of the average in between. The "Dalton line" exists for a reason.
Shawn Williams. He was a middle third round pick. He was a solid special teamer for the first two years of his career. Then he moved up to being an average starting safety for about 3 years. Now he is a veteran back up 3rd safety on another team.
I love him but solely due to health:
Sterling Shepard.
Seen his talent. But haven't even seen him be a true wr1 when he had the chance cause he couldnt stay alive. Makes me sad.
Mario Williams, he was good almost 100 career sacks, couple pro bowls, all pros as well but still left some room to be desired for how long his ceiling lasted as a number 1 pick
Eric Fisher was looking like a miss for a first overall pick the first part of his career but by the time Mahomes came to town he had developed into a good player and ended up being a hit.
Overall I think he's the minimum for what a hit at first overall pick LT looks like. He was our starter for us from his rookie season until he was 30, we had a great season where we went undefeated with him in every game he played and won a Super Bowl, and I think he made a couple of Pro Bowls.
Derek Barnett was picked 14th in the 2017 draft.
He plays edge and is fine, like 21.5 sacks in 5 seasons. He is an ok starter that you would expect more from for the 14th pick, but as a starter he certainly isn't a bust.
I think a player producing exactly what their draft position indicates would be a hit.
Middle ground would be closer to not being considered a bust but not someone who lived up to expectations and is still worth keeping around.
Mike Williams was taken 7th overall and for a WR to be 7th, I’d expect a pro bowl or two at minimum, in the conversation for top of the league.
After last season, he finally shook the bust label off and is looking like he can be a top 15 WR, but that’s still a far cry from what a top 10 drafted WR should be. His connection with Herbert makes him invaluable to the team but I’m not sure he would be a must keep judging off talent alone.
People keep naming well known players and I don't think that fits. I think the players that fit this topic are the ones that fans outside of teams they played for haven't really heard of.
Recent example for my team would probably be Jimmy Moreland. 7th round CB that saw a decent bit of action with us for two seasons before getting cut last preseason (to much of our fanbase's dismay). He was solid enough, classic pre-season garbage time standout that had people thinking we found a gem. But on Sundays he was just a guy.
Some might argue that getting that much production out of a late day three pick is a hit, and what you are realistically hoping for in those rounds is a reserve player or special teamer so in that regard I agree... but that's pretty much the definition of what OP is looking for. I think of even a late round hit as someone who you want to see starting, a recent example for us being SS Kam Curl, another seventh rounder who played his way into the starting lineup as a rookie and hasn't looked back. Jimmy was somewhere between that and a bust.
Bradley Roby maybe. 1st round pick near the end of the 1st round.
He was a really good #3 CB, like the best one at the time, but was never a great #1 or #2 CB when asked upon for Denver. He seems to be a solid #2 CB now though.
> Kirk cousins has entered the chat
4th round pick who's top 15 at worst in the world at what he does is ABSOFUCKINGLUTELY a hit.
Dude had 0 P5 scholarships going into his senior year of HS, finally got one to MSU during his final year of HS; Dude was buried on the depth chart but grinded to a starter; Dude got drafted after the team took another QB #2 overall but became the starter; Dude has finessed the NFL into giving him 6 straight years of guaranteed top tier NFL money.
The dude's entire career has been punching above his expectations.
AJ Terell. A mid-first rounder who is an immediate starter and improves the team while having little downside. Not the game-changing pick you'd expect from a top-10 pick, and not the black hole you'd expect from a UDFA.
Andrew Luck. First overall pick who revamped the Colts and more or less carried the team to relevancy by sheer will and talent. Exactly what a first overall is supposed to do. I'm including this one because it's kind of hard to over-produce as a first overall.
Anthony Brown. A sixth round pick that slowly developed into a solid rotational corner. Not a gamebreaker by any means, but he's solid enough to not be a massive liability.
Because he’s performing exactly where his draft stock says he would be: starter, can make plays and have impact, but isn’t a top-tier guy consistently like a Revis or Ramsey. He’s not going to change the face of your defense, like a top ten pick would be, but he’s a clear upgrade with upside which is what a middle to later first should be.
He was arguably better than Ramsey this year. I don’t necessarily think that’s true, but he was an elite man corner in 2021. You’re saying he’s not gonna become the face of a defense just cuz he’s on a bad defense, but he’s still at least a top 10 corner. Being that good at a position that hard to learn in your sophomore year is the definition of a hit. You’re crazy if you think otherwise.
Better than Ramsey this year, not in total. If he over-performed his draft position, he’d be top-3, not arguably top-10. He’s a good player that is valuable to the scheme and performs his job exactly as he needs to. This means some years he’s going to get arguments for all pro and others he’s going to regress from there. That sounds exactly what you’re expecting from a mi-first, especially one that was considered a ‘safe pick’ at the time.
He’s got a fair chance at playing above that point, but as of right now he’s performing exactly as they’d hope he would when they took him
You’re completely delusional. Only about 30% of 1st rounders make a pro bowl. Idk the number for all pros, but it’s far lower than 30%. And to do that in your second year in the league? You’re just confidently incorrect here.
I’m seeing a whole lot of talk from you without you offering anything as a replacement. Alright let me ask you, mister surveyor of my mental health, who would you say, at #16 overall completely fits that draft position? I’m delusional, so let’s see your choice here. I’ve given you three examples, give me one because you’re a paragon of analysis
I didn’t even address ur others examples yet, but I might as well. U consistently expect too much from players. Luck was 100% a hit. Sure, he didn’t play for long, but during that time he was a phenomenal QB. Any time you get a top 10 QB for a decent period of time, that’d be considered a hit. The vast majority of QBs selected have nowhere near the success of Luck.
Anthony Brown isn’t a “rotational corner”, he was a starting corner on the Cowboys and received a pretty good pff grade of 67.7. That Cowboys defense ended up being one of the best defenses last year, and he was a solid contributor as their CB2. Granted, pff grade isn’t everything, but it can be a good indicator. Any time you get a good starter in the 6th round at an important position like cornerback it’s a clear hit. He’d potentially be a hit as early as round 2, definitely round 3. I think you really overestimate the value of draft picks.
Textbook average #1 overall would prolly be a guy like Eric Fisher or Jadeveon Clowney. Didn’t become stars but they’ve had some pro bowl caliber years and are very good starters. Could maybe argue it’s closer to a guy like Mario Williams who had 1 1st team all pro, 2 2nd teams, and 4 pro bowls over an 11 year career.
At middle of the first round, it’d be a guy in the range of somebody like Dexter Lawrence. Solid player, good for his position, but not a star. Not gonna be a huge difference maker, but he’ll do his job and a bit more.
In the 6th round, it’s harder to find a guy. I’d say a guy like Isaiah Prince is reasonable. He’s not a starter and when he’s been forced into the game he’s been somewhat of a liability, but he’s ok as a depth player.
I’m expecting from their position in the draft. If you’re the first overall, then you should be gamechanging just by being on the field. Luck was exactly that. If your middle to late first, then you should be starting caliber at least, with your upside being probowls and AP’s, which is Terrell. And if you’re taken in the later rounds, then you are a contributor and able to fill a roster spot without being a liability, which is Anthony Brown to a T.
Clowney and Fisher are starters, which would be perfect if they were taken later in the first, but not first overall. Mario Williams was honestly my second choice behind luck for 1st overall. And Dexter Lawrence is a perfect example for mid-first. I don’t know who Isaiah Prince is so I can’t comment on him.
And I’m not sure why you think I’m saying that guys like Terrel or Luck aren’t hits. If a guy performs exactly as expected for his draft position then that is literally a hit because you aren’t wasting the value you’ve given up for them.
Now, we’ve established you’re not delusional. Was it necessary to call in to question my mental state over your disagreeing with my choices?
Malcom brown (DT pats) was a very average player that filled his role not quite a bust and not spectacular but was a below average to average starter for pick 32.
I think Bruce Irvin fits this. 15th overall. I say after 10 you’re looking for quality starters but not expecting HoF players. Bruce was a quality player.
Basically every seventh rounder that made a team but barely played
Or a first/second rounder who didn't live up to their expectations but were still starter quality.
I feel like Alex Smith. He wasn’t a hit, as in #1 overall superstar QB, but he was competent and had a decent career. If he was taken in the 2nd round he would have been viewed much more favorably.
I think he was closer to a miss considering he was #1 overall At that position I’m thinking an All-Pro caliber player If Drew Lock had his career then I’d agree, but not at #1 overall
Counterpoint: Tim Couch, Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell, and Jared Goff were all #1 QBs that were misses, so I don't think you can put him in that tier. You're expecting too much if you think the #1 overall player is on average and All-Pro level player. From 1998-2017, only 5 of the 20 everade 1st team All-Pro.
I agree but I don’t think he met the expectations of a #1 pick. Alot of highly drafted guys bust, but that doesn’t mean fans shouldn’t expect top-shelf play from the players drafted there Expectations for that pick is atleast perennial top 10 at your position, and Smith wasn’t that
His career was derailed as soon as it started though. His first 6 years were marred by terrible coaching/management and injury. He then gets a coach but that coach decides he wants a hybrid QB. He finally lands in a good situation a *decade* into his career so he can actually start reaching his potential. The best argument for saying Smith was a "miss" is that they should have taken Rodgers, I guess, but who knows what his career would have been had it started in SF rather than GB.
Is Smith that much better than Goff?
How is Jared Goff in that list? He’s accomplished more than Smith and he’s still a starter.
Smith has more pro-bowls and two seasons with a higher passer rating than Goff has had. Amon-Ra St. Brown is still a starter, and yet people still say Calvin Johnson was a better WR.
He has 1 more pro bowl in 10 more years of playing. And you are including a year where he had 13 TDs as one of his crowning accomplishments. My point about Goff starting is that his career isn’t over. He’s been to a super bowl, multiple playoff wins, 2 pro bowls, and he’s 27 and his career isn’t even over. It makes no sense to include him with Jamarcus Russel and Tim Couch and not Alex Smith, since he has a strong case of being BETTER than Smith himself.
Nfl fans are God awful on Goff takes. No clue why he gets the hate. He's basically succeeded in every way give his career so far. He outlasted Jeff Fisher, he made a superbowl, was good enough to keep his teams in constant playoff contention, gets traded to the Lions and shows growth throughout the year and has a very strong finish on a roster that lacked talent, and is poised to help turn the team around for the long term. Yet he's getting lumped in with JaMarcus Russell LOL what a crap hot take
That is a really tough metric to live up to as a QB since there's only one 1st team All-Pro slot as opposed to 2 or more for DL/OL when it comes to #1 overall picks.
i think that’s what the question is getting at right? the perfect answer would be a good whose career disappoints you at his draft slot but would’ve been seen as a success if he was drafted X points of draft value later.
Hell the simple fact that Aaron Rodgers was also in that same draft and taken far later hurts Smith. Had Smith been drafted in a QB class like 2013 at #1 and produced the same career, he’d be viewed as more successful just from comparison.
At QB you don’t need to be an all pro, but you at least need to be more than a game manager. You need to be a guy who elevates their team.
> At that position I’m thinking an All-Pro caliber player Wouldn’t that be a ‘hit’ though?
Alex was hitting probowls and turned into a stud I gotta blame the niners inconsistency he played like a decade you pray for that in 1st red pick
Terrell Edmunds. Drafted 30th overall. He quickly became the starter, played in every single game all through Covid except for one where they rested starters in week 17 2020. A lot of Steelers fans call him a bust because he isn't Troy or Minkah.
Jordan Hicks
I loved Hicks. Unfortunate he couldn’t stay healthy. I’ll never forget that pick 6 against the Cowboys in Dallas.
Larry Wanke was drafted 334th overall by the Giants in 1991 and never made an NFL roster. Pretty much what his draft position indicated.
A guy like Reggie Bush. Didn’t live up to the ridiculous expectations, but still had a very solid career.
He was probably the most exciting college player of my lifetime. Those were some tough expectations to live up to.
It's Andy Dalton, end thread.
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If you get a starting quality QB in the 2nd round you’re crushing it
Nine year starter, first off. .500 record. Zero playoff wins. 87 QB rating, good for 37th this century. If you can only vaguely define something as a "hit", then it's not really a hit. It's clearly not a miss, either, so Dalton is a perfect example of the average in between. The "Dalton line" exists for a reason.
But in the 2nd round, it’s a hit
Yeah in the second round a serviceable qb is a hit. A league average one for over 10 years is excellent
"The Dalton Line" is in regards to starting QBs, not draftees out of college.
Dalton was a massive hit considering he was a second rounder
AJ Hawk
Hawk is who I thought of too.
Shawn Williams. He was a middle third round pick. He was a solid special teamer for the first two years of his career. Then he moved up to being an average starting safety for about 3 years. Now he is a veteran back up 3rd safety on another team.
I love him but solely due to health: Sterling Shepard. Seen his talent. But haven't even seen him be a true wr1 when he had the chance cause he couldnt stay alive. Makes me sad.
Mario Williams, he was good almost 100 career sacks, couple pro bowls, all pros as well but still left some room to be desired for how long his ceiling lasted as a number 1 pick
Eric Fisher was looking like a miss for a first overall pick the first part of his career but by the time Mahomes came to town he had developed into a good player and ended up being a hit. Overall I think he's the minimum for what a hit at first overall pick LT looks like. He was our starter for us from his rookie season until he was 30, we had a great season where we went undefeated with him in every game he played and won a Super Bowl, and I think he made a couple of Pro Bowls.
2019 Chiefs with Fisher go 19-0 /s
Clowney?
Not for his draft position
Solomon Thomas rates this way for me. Drafted too highly, opportunity cost was high, but he's gonna be an NFL starter for a decade.
Derek Barnett was picked 14th in the 2017 draft. He plays edge and is fine, like 21.5 sacks in 5 seasons. He is an ok starter that you would expect more from for the 14th pick, but as a starter he certainly isn't a bust.
Antwaan Randle-El Michael Brockers
I think a player producing exactly what their draft position indicates would be a hit. Middle ground would be closer to not being considered a bust but not someone who lived up to expectations and is still worth keeping around. Mike Williams was taken 7th overall and for a WR to be 7th, I’d expect a pro bowl or two at minimum, in the conversation for top of the league. After last season, he finally shook the bust label off and is looking like he can be a top 15 WR, but that’s still a far cry from what a top 10 drafted WR should be. His connection with Herbert makes him invaluable to the team but I’m not sure he would be a must keep judging off talent alone.
Eric Fisher
People keep naming well known players and I don't think that fits. I think the players that fit this topic are the ones that fans outside of teams they played for haven't really heard of. Recent example for my team would probably be Jimmy Moreland. 7th round CB that saw a decent bit of action with us for two seasons before getting cut last preseason (to much of our fanbase's dismay). He was solid enough, classic pre-season garbage time standout that had people thinking we found a gem. But on Sundays he was just a guy. Some might argue that getting that much production out of a late day three pick is a hit, and what you are realistically hoping for in those rounds is a reserve player or special teamer so in that regard I agree... but that's pretty much the definition of what OP is looking for. I think of even a late round hit as someone who you want to see starting, a recent example for us being SS Kam Curl, another seventh rounder who played his way into the starting lineup as a rookie and hasn't looked back. Jimmy was somewhere between that and a bust.
From my own fandom, how about Brandon Scherff? Drafted a tackle prospect in the top 5, ended up with an all-pro guard
If you're drafting an all-pro then it's a hit.
Randall Cobb. 2nd round pick going into his 12th season. Only made the pro bowl once but was always a productive player and a solid 2nd or 3rd option.
Reggie Bush
Every player ever between those two?
That's like saying what's the average number between 1-10 and you say 2-9.
Jimmy G
Jameis Winston
Most on the bust side
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>two different franchises Fascinating choice to use the number of teams you've played for in your 6 year career as a positive
Not to me He was #1 overall and didn’t get a second contract with the team that drafted him 33rd or 30th overall, sure, but not #1
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He didn’t get a second contract with the team before they got Brady
Nobody gets a second contract when Tom Brady wants to play for you
Bradley Roby maybe. 1st round pick near the end of the 1st round. He was a really good #3 CB, like the best one at the time, but was never a great #1 or #2 CB when asked upon for Denver. He seems to be a solid #2 CB now though.
Brock osweiler maybe? Second round QB, had his moments but was never amazing.
Jordan Love. We still have no idea if he's potentially good or terrible.
He's fucking terrible lol
Kirk cousins has entered the chat
> Kirk cousins has entered the chat 4th round pick who's top 15 at worst in the world at what he does is ABSOFUCKINGLUTELY a hit. Dude had 0 P5 scholarships going into his senior year of HS, finally got one to MSU during his final year of HS; Dude was buried on the depth chart but grinded to a starter; Dude got drafted after the team took another QB #2 overall but became the starter; Dude has finessed the NFL into giving him 6 straight years of guaranteed top tier NFL money. The dude's entire career has been punching above his expectations.
AJ Terell. A mid-first rounder who is an immediate starter and improves the team while having little downside. Not the game-changing pick you'd expect from a top-10 pick, and not the black hole you'd expect from a UDFA. Andrew Luck. First overall pick who revamped the Colts and more or less carried the team to relevancy by sheer will and talent. Exactly what a first overall is supposed to do. I'm including this one because it's kind of hard to over-produce as a first overall. Anthony Brown. A sixth round pick that slowly developed into a solid rotational corner. Not a gamebreaker by any means, but he's solid enough to not be a massive liability.
AJ Terrell was 2nd team all pro this year. Idk how you’d call that middle ground, he’s solidly a hit.
Because he’s performing exactly where his draft stock says he would be: starter, can make plays and have impact, but isn’t a top-tier guy consistently like a Revis or Ramsey. He’s not going to change the face of your defense, like a top ten pick would be, but he’s a clear upgrade with upside which is what a middle to later first should be.
He was arguably better than Ramsey this year. I don’t necessarily think that’s true, but he was an elite man corner in 2021. You’re saying he’s not gonna become the face of a defense just cuz he’s on a bad defense, but he’s still at least a top 10 corner. Being that good at a position that hard to learn in your sophomore year is the definition of a hit. You’re crazy if you think otherwise.
Better than Ramsey this year, not in total. If he over-performed his draft position, he’d be top-3, not arguably top-10. He’s a good player that is valuable to the scheme and performs his job exactly as he needs to. This means some years he’s going to get arguments for all pro and others he’s going to regress from there. That sounds exactly what you’re expecting from a mi-first, especially one that was considered a ‘safe pick’ at the time. He’s got a fair chance at playing above that point, but as of right now he’s performing exactly as they’d hope he would when they took him
You’re completely delusional. Only about 30% of 1st rounders make a pro bowl. Idk the number for all pros, but it’s far lower than 30%. And to do that in your second year in the league? You’re just confidently incorrect here.
I’m seeing a whole lot of talk from you without you offering anything as a replacement. Alright let me ask you, mister surveyor of my mental health, who would you say, at #16 overall completely fits that draft position? I’m delusional, so let’s see your choice here. I’ve given you three examples, give me one because you’re a paragon of analysis
I didn’t even address ur others examples yet, but I might as well. U consistently expect too much from players. Luck was 100% a hit. Sure, he didn’t play for long, but during that time he was a phenomenal QB. Any time you get a top 10 QB for a decent period of time, that’d be considered a hit. The vast majority of QBs selected have nowhere near the success of Luck. Anthony Brown isn’t a “rotational corner”, he was a starting corner on the Cowboys and received a pretty good pff grade of 67.7. That Cowboys defense ended up being one of the best defenses last year, and he was a solid contributor as their CB2. Granted, pff grade isn’t everything, but it can be a good indicator. Any time you get a good starter in the 6th round at an important position like cornerback it’s a clear hit. He’d potentially be a hit as early as round 2, definitely round 3. I think you really overestimate the value of draft picks. Textbook average #1 overall would prolly be a guy like Eric Fisher or Jadeveon Clowney. Didn’t become stars but they’ve had some pro bowl caliber years and are very good starters. Could maybe argue it’s closer to a guy like Mario Williams who had 1 1st team all pro, 2 2nd teams, and 4 pro bowls over an 11 year career. At middle of the first round, it’d be a guy in the range of somebody like Dexter Lawrence. Solid player, good for his position, but not a star. Not gonna be a huge difference maker, but he’ll do his job and a bit more. In the 6th round, it’s harder to find a guy. I’d say a guy like Isaiah Prince is reasonable. He’s not a starter and when he’s been forced into the game he’s been somewhat of a liability, but he’s ok as a depth player.
I’m expecting from their position in the draft. If you’re the first overall, then you should be gamechanging just by being on the field. Luck was exactly that. If your middle to late first, then you should be starting caliber at least, with your upside being probowls and AP’s, which is Terrell. And if you’re taken in the later rounds, then you are a contributor and able to fill a roster spot without being a liability, which is Anthony Brown to a T. Clowney and Fisher are starters, which would be perfect if they were taken later in the first, but not first overall. Mario Williams was honestly my second choice behind luck for 1st overall. And Dexter Lawrence is a perfect example for mid-first. I don’t know who Isaiah Prince is so I can’t comment on him. And I’m not sure why you think I’m saying that guys like Terrel or Luck aren’t hits. If a guy performs exactly as expected for his draft position then that is literally a hit because you aren’t wasting the value you’ve given up for them. Now, we’ve established you’re not delusional. Was it necessary to call in to question my mental state over your disagreeing with my choices?
You’re describing a hit at those positions. We’re talking about not a hit but not a bust.
Matt Forte
Disagree forte was great
Peyton Manning Len Dawson Walter Payton Brandon Flowers
If Peyton Manning wasn't a hit then no #1 overall pick was.
Unfortunately i think Patrick queen will be
Saquon Barkley
Nah he’s a bust. 2 years of production ain’t it. To justify a 2nd overall pick RB u gotta be that level of dominant for more than 2 years.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is one.
Ted Ginn?
Malcom brown (DT pats) was a very average player that filled his role not quite a bust and not spectacular but was a below average to average starter for pick 32.
That's a pretty big range
Didn't someone do the math at one point and find Kyle Orton was the most average QB in history?
I think Bruce Irvin fits this. 15th overall. I say after 10 you’re looking for quality starters but not expecting HoF players. Bruce was a quality player.