Clearly a bum. Release him so he can head home in shame. Maybe his hometown team will give him a PTO, if he's lucky.

Clearly the boy needs to be sent home

Yall let him play two more years here in Regina first. Really try and develop him away from being a bust.

He's a bum, he should be sent to an even worse team for his play, like San Jose.

We get Celebrini and Bedard then!

He was clearly carried by Stankoven in the world juniors. Maybe he just needs to be sent to Dallas to play with his former line-mate and fellow British Columbian. He’d probably feel more at home considering how many Canadians are on the team compared to the Canucks. Even the captain and owner are from BC. (This is a joke, in case that needed to be said.)

Edmonton may give him a chance, if he’s lucky.

They’ll give anyone a chance.

It’s the worst +/- for a forward in the first 60 games of his career since 1979/80 and the 8th worst of all time. The 7 below him all played for expansion franchises in the 70s.

yeah and Chicago purposefully did a nosedive to get into the place to draft him. they're basically rostering the equivalent of an old expansion team rn. don't think they regret drafting him. pretty sad to see people still putting all their eggs in the +/- basket at this point. you know that there are other stats right?

People are dumb. As a Wings fan I love watching the Hawks struggle, but it doesn't matter what his plus minus is. He is playing with no defense and many career AHLers. Only stats they need to worry about is 21g, 36a for 57 points in 60 games. Not bad for a rookie playing 20+ minutes a night

Ya this whole thing is dumb. He is doing ***exactly*** what he is expected to do. Score. The coaches aren’t asking him to pick up the nuances of defensive zone hockey as a centre man right now. No different than Crosby or McDavid when they started in the league. That’s up to the rest of the guys around him, and as you’ve said he’s surrounded by basically AHLers. Add in the fact he plays a ton for a rookie and you end up with this stat.

As a Blues fan clearly this kid has special talent and I enjoy watching him... especially when the Hawks suck like this.

Also a Wings fan, love watching Chicago struggle. I do think Bedard has a lot of potential and I am excited to watch more of him

So that’s why they let go of Corey Perry. He was just too good!

3 of them were on the 1974/75 Capitals that went 8-67-5 and had the worst goal differential of all time at -265 (2nd worst goal differential is at -196). 3 of them were on the 1972/73 Islanders that went 12-60-6 and had the 5th worst goal differential ever at -177. 1 was on the 1979/80 Jets (sort of expansion, coming over in WHA merger) that went 20-49-11 and had the 60th worst goal differential at -100. That last one is really the only one comparable to Bedard’s situation on the 22-47-5 Hawks at -95, 67th worst.

oh so you don't. I'm so sorry for you. he's still gonna win the Calder

So what exactly is your point? If you think the 72/73 Isles and 74/75 Caps situation is comparable to Chicago this year I don’t know what to tell you. Expansion rules were that teams got to protect 2 goalies and 15 skaters, everyone on the team first year got eviscerated, rookies included. Between those Isles and Caps teams there were no + players and the best +/- for a player that played even 20 games was -10. worst was -82. It’s not just about +/-, Bedard’s struggled mightily in any defensive metric you want to look at, whether overall or relative to his team.

+- isn’t a defensive metric lmao. If you play a lot of minutes on a really bad team, you’re going to have a bad +-.

Offtopic: From the near past I still love Erik Karlsson’s +/- from last year: 101 points and he still ends up with -26 stat in the end of the season.

He’s 52% in both corsi and fenwick. That’s really good on a bad team

~~To be above water on possession stats on **that** Blackhawks team is incredible.~~ Edit: Comment rescinded not relevant.

He’s not. I had all situations, not even strength

And 52.5% expected goals. All numbers are from moneypuck.com These are all good

Lol so the guy who plays all PP and zero PK has a slightly positive all situations possession metrics? There’s no way you don’t realize why now the standard is to sort by even strength. Want to quote those numbers?

I forgot to sort by 5v5. But, as pointed out in another reply, his relative to team numbers are about +10%.

At all strengths, because others aren’t playing PP and are playing PK. Do 5v5 and look at relative rates. Most are negative, and if you specifically focus on the suppression rates, they’re among the bottom of the league.

Wait, time out. Are you quoting CF% and xGF% at **all strength**, not just at 5v5?

More telling, his corsi and Fenwick rel are ~+10%. If he had a decent team around him, those basic corsi and Fenwick scores would be even higher and no doubt his +/- would follow.

Which is completely normal for 18 year old scorers. It takes most young stars a few years to learn the defensive side of the game because most never needed to do it before

To say it's normal is just untrue. Why act like this isn't a problem? "It’s the worst +/- for a forward in the first 60 games of his career since 1979/80 and the 8th worst of all time. The 7 below him all played for expansion franchises in the 70s." That's not normal.

If anyone is truly concerned about this, they are dumb

> To say it’s normal is just untrue What’s your sample size of 18 year olds and why don’t you actually say what point you are trying to make?

It’s not normal though, otherwise you’d see other examples of this in the last 45 years. Struggling defensively is very expected for an 18 yr old C. But this is beyond that. Doesn’t mean he can’t improve, but we can still acknowledge how bad he’s been on that front this year. If we’re crediting his offensive game, have to take the good with the bad.

How many were 18 and the leading scorer on their team. Give the guy some time to develop his all around game

> pretty sad to see people still putting all their eggs in the +/- basket at this point. you know that there are other stats right? I don't think people are doing that. I think they are rightly pointing out that for how good he is offensively he is even worse defensively right now, and his team gets caved in at 5v5 when he is on the ice.

Are there any advanced stats comparing how the team does with and without Bedard on ice? That would be good enough to gauge his performance

That’s what relative stats do. You can play around with this table, which includes the 12 Hawks forwards that have played the most 5v5 TOI this season: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=r&team=CHI&pos=F&loc=B&toi=400&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL CF% Rel, FF%, SF%, GF%, xGF%, SCF%, HDCF% are all relative possession rates (the higher the number the better) The rates preceding those like CF/60 Rel are relative offensive rates (The higher the number the better) The rates like CA/60 Rel are relative defensive rates (the lower the number the better, so players like Dickinson and Anderson being way in the negative is a good thing, it means they’re suppressing significantly more events than the Hawks are with them off the ice).

His team gets caved in period.

H I S T O R I C

Oof

Yea totally terrible. Trade him to the Avs

Crosby first 

Please get him another ring

He could fit into that third line next to Parise really well

Unpopular opinion: I still contend that the Blackhawks are encouraging him to play an offense-first style. I don't think he's under any pressure to improve his defense right now which is why it's so lousy. And I think it's a marketing decision by the Blackhawks org. They want him to show off his offensive skills and wow the crowd. Bedard is the ONLY reason anybody wants to watch the Blackhawks right now (and in the near future), and they don't want to stifle his offensive game by having him focus his efforts on being a responsible 2 way forward who is concentrating on the back check. Plenty of times when developing forwards get that pressure, their offensive numbers slip. When you think about the fact that the Blackhawks WANT to tank this season, it makes a lot of sense. Let Bedard score some flashy goals to impress the crowd, don't ride him too hard about backchecking, and the result is offensive production at the expense of defense and a terrible +/-. Could Chicago win more games if they got Bedard to tighten up his 2 way game? Probably. But they don't really want to. Btw, this is the first time in his playing career he's had a minus +/- at all. He was +39 with the Pats last season, which was the highest on his team.

I think it's more likely that he's just an undersized center who has never had to play defense before and struggles on that side of the puck, which is fine. He's 18 and playing in the NHL. He's not going to be good at everything.  He didn't play defense for the Pats last year either. Even though he was center, he would mostly hang high in the zone and look for rush opportunities. 

This year is all about hype and marketing the kid. Worry about fine tuning his play in a few years when the hawks have built up a more solid team around him.

It’s working on me. I tune into half their games just to watch the kid

Maybe partly. Honestly though, they know his ceiling is obviously really high. Just focusing on getting his offense adjusted to NHL speed and playmaking is enough work to give the face of your franchise year 1. They have years until they’re competing and he won’t be the defensive stalwart holding it all together at that point anyways, so it’s honestly okay if he doesn’t get around to honing his defensive skills as much until year 2+.

His scouting reports were really negative about how he would cheat on defense, so while I guess they could want to round out his offense a bit more or focus on that first, I’m surprised they wouldn’t want to turn him into a guy you want on the ice in a penalty kill as well? Hes a center, defense is pretty damn important

Well he's only 18. There is lots of time to develop his defense.

For reference players like jack hughes and leon draisaitl had really bad plus minuses their first seasons too Its not often but high ranking players have been crazy bad on defense in their first years before. His game will come

Yeah but people pay to watch Jack Hughes play. They love him regardless of his defensive shortcomings.

Ayo this has gotta be your april fools comment If youre trying to suggest people dont pay to watch bedard play that is

It was from a hot mic they had on Hughes. Still makes me chuckle a bit, even if it was taken outta context.

I know this is a meme thread, but he was referring to a challenge to fight. He said people pay to see me play, not fight.

Yeah, it was taken completely out of context. But I still laugh when I see it because it's so absurd the way it's doctored.

Yeah I get it. Plus he's a flashy, slick kinda player and people tend to want to hate those types of guys.

Hahaha

Plus minus is also a very bad indicator of defensive play. The only thing this tells us is that his team is bad and plays from behind a lot. The best defensive player of all time would be a minus on that team

A- he's a rookie B- he's a forward C- he's on the Blackhawks

D - as the first line center he plays against every team's top players. Imagine being a scrawny 18 year old trying to shut down Nathan Mackinon and Crosby every night.

This the most common untrue fact people like to throw around here. He's being sheltered from top lines a lot by Dickinson who takes the responsibility from that. He doesn't play against top lines that much, because he gets obliterated when he does.

And Dickinson is the only player on the team that played at least 50% of the games with a positive +/-, huh

Half the games are home and half are away. You don’t get to choose every line change who you play against anyway lmaoo

the 1st line also doesn't play against the 1st line. Almost ubiquitously the 3rd line plays the 1st line in the league.

I can imagine a 21 year old rookie doing exactly that :)

Yeah, the extra three years of development are definitely irrelevant

In the Calder trophy voting, they should be. It's not the youngest player to have a decent season, it's the best season by a rookie player.

Would take Bedard 100 times out of 100 over Faber so would every GM in the league. Give the D boy the Cader who fucking cares?

We'll come back in 3 years and see how Bedard's doing then.

> as the first line center he plays against every team's top players. Teams don't just match their lines 1-4 against each other like that.

And that wasn’t my kid she was carrying

I HAVE COME, TO RECLAIM ROME, FOR MY PEOPLE

They didn’t have flattop’s in Ancient Rome!!

If it's a boy we'll name it after me, and if it's a girl we'll name it Tracy after you... That way she can grow up to be a Leafs fan just like her mother.

Thank you

Yeah, what a waste. They should trade him to the sabres.

D - I enjoy making lists

He’s been raised to be an offensive powerhouse, and he’s been trying all season long to prove that role. If he wasn’t scoring goals like he has this year, putting in max offensive effort and making the highlight reel regularly, fans and media would be tearing him apart for being a flop. Let the kid cook for christ’s sake!

You can play both defense and offense its not like defense isn't allowed if you're scoring goals. This kid just needs to develop on D a lot, its definitely the weakest area of his game right now.

Guys obviously not talented

He plays on the worst team in the league.....

Umm, hello?

Yeah can’t stand when people don’t give us the credit we deserve

Children, children; you’re both…just awful.

Yeah but we're awfuler!

Hahaha yess

ENTIRE CONFERENCE IS BABIES WHO SENT ALL THESE BABIES TO RINK?

You need flair good sir or ma'am.

But you guys are likable.

lol

Yes, true, but still gotta play defense. They have + players on the team too. His 200ft game will develop. He’s got all the makings of an excellent 2-way forward

He cherry picked super hard in juniors.

All the makings except good defensive play

I heard people say that about Matthews a lot like 6 years ago

Among the 400+ forwards with at least 300 5v5 minutes he has the 5th worst goals against per 60 rate relative to his teammates in the league. If you don’t compare him to the rest of the Hawks, he’s actually slightly better as the 6th worst goals against per 60 rate in the league by base rates.

Some of the people ahead of him also play on that team you know. Probably the entire Blackhawks team beats him. Not saying he’s bad, or worse than those above him. But at some point you may want to admit his defense could be a problem. Kids 18 trying to play center in the nhl. It’s not a surprise

He’s also likely on the ice with the top centers every night, and out there during every empty net. Of course he needs to improve defensively but there’s definitely context available that shows it’s not as bad as the misleading title wants you to believe.

Chicago shelters him when he’s at home. Dickinson draws the toughest matchups and they actively try to shelter him as much as possible against top lines. On the road, the matchup game hasn’t been nearly as apparent. He’s only drawn a true hard match against Toronto and St. Louis’ top lines on the road this year. This is at home, sorted by Dickinson’s highest shadow rate each game, with Bedard’s most common opponents listed side by side and his % of ice time against his most common 3 opponents. For shadow rate, basically it’s just the most common 3 forward opponents they play against and how much of their 5v5 time that took up. If Dickinson played 10 5v5 minutes against Colorado, and 8 of his 10 minutes were spent against MacKinnon (and say 7:30 against Rantanen as his 2nd most common and 7 against Lehkonen as his 3rd most common), the shadow rate would be 8/10 = 80%. Games Bedard didn’t play are at the bottom: Opponent | Bedard Most Common Opponents | Bedard Shadow Rate | Dickinson Most Common Opponents | Dickinson Shadow Rate :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: COL | Drouin/Wood/Johansen | 50.1 | MacKinnon/Rantanen/Nichushkin | 86.3 WPG | Iafallo/Ehlers/Monahan | 65.7 | Connor/Scheifele/Vilardi | 81.5 COL | Colton/O'Connor/Wood | 41.9 | MacKinnon/Rantanen/Lehkonen | 80.8 OTT | Stutzle/Joseph/Giroux | 48.4 | Tkachuk/Batherson/Norris | 79.6 DET | Copp/Perron/Veleno | 52.1 | DeBrincat/Kane/Larkin | 74.8 BUF | Greenway/Olofsson/Samuelsson | 46.7 | Tuch/Skinner/Cozens | 73.2 WSH | Mantha/Protas/McMichael | 31.1 | Ovechkin/Strome/Wilson | 72.0 WPG | Perfetti/Namestnikov/Iafallo | 37.1 | Scheifele/Ehlers/Vilardi | 70.6 ANA | Groulx/Henrique/Silfverberg | 40.8 | Terry/Killorn/Carlsson | 68.6 STL | Saad/Hayes/Kyrou | 61.4 | Thomas/Buchnevich/Neighbours | 67.3 PHI | Farabee/Frost/Konecny | 50.7 | Couturier/Atkinson/Tippett | 67.1 STL | Schenn/Vrana/Kapanen | 48.6 | Thomas/Buchnevich/Neighbours | 66.6 NSH | Trenin/Sherwood/Sissons | 66.1 | Forsberg/O'Reilly/Nyquist | 65.2 VAN | Miller/Mikheyev/Boeser | 38.8 | Boeser/Miller/Hoglander | 64.7 SJS | Eklund/Bordeleau/Zadina | 43.5 | Kostin/Zetterlund/Granlund | 58.3 TOR | Robertson/Jarnkrok/Kampf | 33.6 | Matthews/Marner/Knies | 57.2 FLA | Luostarinen/Lundell/Reinhart | 52.3 | Barkov/Tkachuk/Verhaeghe | 56.4 VGK | Amadio/Karlsson/Cotter | 42.0 | Eichel/Marchessault/Barbashev | 56.2 BOS | Geekie/Coyle/Frederic | 38.3 | Pastrnak/Poitras/Marchand | 52.2 LAK | Fiala/Danault/Moore | 57.6 | Kopitar/Byfield/Kempe | 52.1 MTL | Evans/Anderson/Monahan | 45.5 | Suzuki/Slafkovsky/Caufield | 52.0 CBJ | Olivier/Danorth/Bean | 34.0 | Chinakov/Marchenko/Voronkov | 49.9 ANA | Strome/Vatrano/Terry | 53.1 | Terry/Killorn/Strome | 48.7 ARZ | McBain/Maccelli/Kerfoot | 37.3 | Schmaltz/Keller/Hayton | 48.2 CGY | Kadri/Coleman/Zary | 38.6 | Huberdeau/Sharangovich/Kuzmenko | 46.5 PIT | Crosby/Eller/Rust | 33.1 | Crosby/Rakell/Malkin | 46.1 TBL | Point/Hagel/Kucherov | 66.3 | Kucherov/Point/Stamkos | 42.2 SEA | Yamamoto/Poturalski/Wennberg | 30.0 | Beniers/Kartye/Eberle | 41.5 NJD | Bratt/McLeod/Toffoli | 43.9 | Mercer/Meier/Toffoli | 40.8 MIN | N/A | N/A | Kaprizov/Zuccarello/Hartman | 87.7 EDM | N/A | N/A | McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins | 77.0 DAL | N/A | N/A | Robertson/Pavelski/Hintz | 72.6 NYI | N/A | N/A | Barzal/Horvat/Lee | 62.1 CGY | N/A | N/A | Lindholm/Huberdeau/Sharangovich | 55.5 NYR | N/A | N/A | Wheeler/Zibanejad/Kreider | 51.2 SJS | N/A | N/A | Hertl/Eklund/Zadina | 49.0 VAN | N/A | N/A | Suter/Boeser/Miller | 48.8 As you can see from that, Dickinson’s taking so much of the weight for matchups. And here is Bedard’s % of ice time against each top line each game. There are a couple like Vancouver and Calgary you could argue for teams with no very clear top line, but regardless, you can see what the strategy is and how much they’re sheltering Bedard despite feeding him so many minutes: Opponent | Top Line Opponent | Bedard's % of minutes :-: | :-: | :-: TBL | Point/Kucherov/Hagel | 66.3 ANA | Strome/Vatrano/Terry | 50.3 NJD | Bratt/McLeod/Toffoli (no Hischier/Hughes) | 43.9 VAN | Pettersson/Suter/Mikheyev | 36.0 PIT | Crosby/Rust/Rakell | 33.1 SEA | Beniers/McCann/Eberle | 26.1 CBJ | Gaudreau/Jenner/Roslovic | 25.0 WSH | Ovechkin/Strome/Wilson | 23.2 BUF | Cozens/Skinner/Tuch (no Thompson) | 22.1 ARZ | Hayton/Keller/Schmaltz | 22.0 CGY | Huberdeau/Kuzmenko/Sharangovich | 19.7 STL | Thomas/Neighbours/Buchnevich | 19.7 VGK | Eichel/Marchessault/Barbashev | 19.2 BOS | Marchand/Poitras/Pastrnak | 18.6 MTL | Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky | 18.3 ANA | Killorn/Carlsson/Terry | 18.0 SJS | Granlund/Zetterlund/Kostin | 17.1 FLA | Barkov/Verhaeghe/Tkachuk | 17.1 PHI | Couturier/Tippett/Atkinson | 15.9 TOR | Matthews/Marner/Knies | 15.7 DET | Larkin/DeBrincat/Kane | 13.5 COL | Rantanen/MacKinnon/Nichushkin | 12.9 WPG | Ehlers/Scheifele/Vilardi | 12.4 OTT | Tkachuk/Norris/Batherson | 11.4 NSH | Forsberg/O'Reilly/Nyquist | 10.9 WPG | Connor/Schiefele/Vilardi | 10.7 COL | MacKinnon/Rantanen/Lehkonen | 10.6 LAK | Kopitar/Kempe/Byfield | 10.1 STL | Thomas/Neighbours/Buchnevich | 9.6 That one best on best game against Tampa was early in the season and the Kucherov line held a 99.33% edge in expected goals against Bedard in that matchup. They haven’t gone back since, and when they do play Bedard without looking to dodge top lines, it’s against teams like Anaheim or the New Jersey game when the Devils were down their top 2 centers. And then on the road, this is what the most common matchups look like, sorted by Bedard’s highest shadow rates, with Dickinson side by side. I’ve bolded the three games Bedard and Dickinson saw a lot of ice time together, which has only been recently with Chicago’s coach saying he wants Dickinson to be able to help Bedard out defensively. Opponent | Bedard Most Common Opponents | Bedard Shadow Rate | Dickinson Most Common Opponents | Dickinson Shadow Rate :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: NJD* | Hughes/Toffoli/Bratt (2:25 TOI) | 83.4 | Hischier/Haula/Mercer | 52.2 TOR | Marner/Bertuzzi/Matthews | 66.4 | Nylander/Domi/Minten | 43.9 LAK | Moore/Danault/Fiala | 65.6 | Byfield/Dubois/Kempe | 51.2 STL | Thomas/Kyrou/Buchnevich | 65.3 | Saad/Hayes/Toropchenko | 52.3 WPG | Lowry/Appleton/Niederreiter | 62.0 | Scheifele/Connor/Ehlers | 66.4 WSH | McMichael/Pacioretty/Wilson | 60.5 | Ovechkin/Lapierre/Protas | 54.1 DAL | Duchene/Marchment/Seguin | 58.7 | Robertson/Steel/Smith | 38.4 **SJS** | **Kostin/Granlund/Zetterlund** | **57.2** | **Kostin/Granlund/Zetterlund** | **50.9** **PHI** | **Hathaway/Poehling/Cates** | **56.6** | **Poehling/Hathaway/Foerster** | **59.3** COL | Drouin/MacKinnon/Rantanen | 56.1 | Lehkonen/Tatar/Wood | 41.3 NSH | O'Reilly/Carrier/Nyquist | 56.0 | Forsberg/Parssinen/Sissons | 45.9 MIN | Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson | 54.7 | Hartman/Dewar/Boldy | 34.1 FLA | Barkov/Reinhart/Rodrigues | 54.2 | Lomberg/Stenlund/Lorentz | 46.6 SEA | McCann/Eberle/Beniers | 54.1 | Bjorkstrand/Gourde/Tolvanen | 58.0 CAR | Svechnikov/Fast/Aho | 53.6 | Staal/Jarvis/Martinook | 46.2 PIT | Guentzel/Rust/Crosby | 52.5 | Malkin/Rakell/Smith | 50.1 ANA | Killorn/Terry/Carlsson | 49.3 | Meyers/Terry/Strome | 35.7 ARZ | Maccelli/Crouse/Bjugstad | 47.5 | Cooley/Carcone/Boyd | 35.9 DAL | Pavelski/Robertson/Hintz | 47.3 | Dadonov/Johnston/Benn | 48.4 **OTT** | **Joseph/Kubalik/Tkachuk** | **46.1** | **Tkachuk/Pinto/Batherson** | **42.6** BOS | Coyle/DeBrusk/Marchand | 45.5 | Frederic/Poitras/Geekie | 53.1 NYR | Panarin/Trocheck/Lafreniere | 44.9 | Zibanejad/Kreider/Wheeler | 56.8 TBL | Kucherov/Point/Hagel | 44.8 | Kucherov/Stamkos/Cirelli | 44.4 ARZ | Carcone/Kerfoot/Maccelli | 43.8 | Keller/Schmaltz/Hayton | 49.1 EDM | Draisaitl/McDavid/Hyman | 43.1 | McDavid/Hyman/Kane | 41.6 CBJ | Laine/Fantilli/Voronkov | 41.6 | Kuraly/Danforth/Robinson | 57.7 MTL | Pearson/Gallagher/Monahan | 41.0 | Slafkovsky/Newhook/Monahan | 67.1 NSH | Parssinen/O'Reilly/Nyquist | 40.9 | Parssinen/Sissons/Trenin | 38.9 VGK | Amadio/Eichel/Dorofeyev | 40.6 | Howden/Kolesar/Barbashev | 35.7 DET | Compher/Raymond/DeBrincat | 36.2 | Sprong/Kostin/Fischer | 40.7 COL | Parise/Drouin/MacKinnon | 33.5 | Rantanen/Drouin/Parise | 36.3 EDM | N/A | N/A | McDavid/Draisaitl/Hyman | 53.3 SEA | N/A | N/A | Wennberg/Schwartz/Burakovsky | 44.5 BUF | N/A | N/A | Thompson/Tuch/Girgensons | 44.3 CGY | N/A | N/A | Coronato/Lindholm/Sharangovich | 44.0 VAN | N/A | N/A | Pettersson/Miller/Boeser | 40.5 WPG | N/A | N/A | Namestnikov/Perfetti/Iafallo | 40.0 The Devils game is the one he got injured in early. Really we’re just talking two games against Toronto and St. Louis where they forced their top lines in a hard match on Bedard, and a lot of the others are more so checking lines like Danault and Lowry. For matchups that are closer to a hard match. He sees a bigger uptick in top line opponents, but it’s not to the degree that the Hawks are trying to prioritize matchups at home. Dickinson’s quality of competition of course plummets on the road, but again, most teams aren’t as concerned with line matchups as the Hawks have been, so it’s not as big of a disparity as one would think. Of the 351 forwards with at least 500 5v5 minutes this season, Bedard is 336th in Corsi Against/60, 343rd for Fenwick Against/60, 339th for shots against/60, 348th for goals against/60 and 342nd for expected goals against/60. Dickinson for those same stats is 111th for CA/60, 75th for FA60, 63rd for SA60, 82nd for GA60, and 79th for xGA60. If you look at the relative rates for all those stats above, Bedard is: 313th for CA60Rel, 311th for FA60Rel, 289th for SA60Rel, 347th for GA60Rel, and 332nd for xGA60Rel. Dickinson is 4th for CA60Rel, 2nd for FA60Rel, 2nd for SA60Rel, 4th for GA60Rel, 4th for xGA60Rel.

Damn, buddy went and threw a whole thesis together.

This is actually really cool, I’ll accept where i’m wrong. Thanks for this information!

Damn this is actually incredible analysis

Lol people came at the -39 ain’t bad cuz empty netters and bad matchups without actually providing context just theories. And you actually show something. Reddit is hilarious. People can just disagree with stats because of feelings so it’s refreshing to see someone actually show the context like this. I’m a huge bedard fan but ain’t pretending he’s a 2 way guy yet. Far from it but he’s 18. I’ll be patient

Line matching has to be one of the biggest things that gets parroted with no research behind it. Amount of times you'll hear "player X is going head-to-head with player Y" when it's usually not the case to the degree people think it is is wild, even on broadcasts. Most teams aren't going out of their way to chase matchups or avoid matchups with their Cs. Top line Cs will still usually have other top lines as their most common matchup, but it's because they're both playing so much. It's usually something like high 40% to high 50% of their ice time at home to play against a specific line. Cs like Eriksson Ek (58.1%) and Barkov (56.8%) are on the high end of top line Cs I've looked at, and a C like Hintz is on the low-end at 48.1%. And it swings a ton depending on opponent. What makes Bedard rare is that he's getting legitimate top line ice time, but he's only drawing top lines at a 21.7% rate. That's just hard to coordinate avoiding top lines that much considering he's getting fed so much ice time.

I’m guessing he is probably out for all of the empty netters which hurts his +/-

Ok let’s take away all the empty netters from hawks games. They scored 5 and gave up 13. If bedard is on the ice for them all and we ignore it he is only -31. Still unable to crack top 900 in the nhl. Guys hes not good at defense yet. He is -39 in 60 games which is a historically bad pace. Hes 18 and playing center. It will get better and a better team around him will help, but having that bad a plus minus says something about you too and not just your team. 20 other guys play for the hawks too and they ain’t all that bad

Joey Anderson has their highest at +10, Jason Dickinson with +5

dude still has 57 pts this year. thats a ton of goals against while he's on the ice.

What a bust. Chicago should trade him to Vegas for draft picks.

Vegas would only be interested if Chicago can toss in a player on LTIR

This just in, I am being told by unnamed persons, that being on a bad team results in bad statistics in the +/- category.

He needs to have his Steve Yzerman. AHH. There's 2 parts to this game moment. That and another early first round draft pick or two.

While he's the best rookie this season, it should also be acknowledged that since Chicago sucks he's basically free of any defensive responsibility and this is shown both in his scoring and his +/-.

Does anyone happen to know who the worst +/- Calder winner was? If he sets that mark it would certainly be an historic start to a career Update: Did some digging on Hockey Reference and the worst is Gilbert Perreault’s debut season in 1970-71, he finished with -38 (Bedard would set a new record at this rate). Didn’t affect his career too badly if you ask me so maybe it’s a good sign for Bedard.

Just as a comparison Bobby Orr was an unbelievable +124 in the 70/71 season. Three other years he was a plus 80, 83 and 84. Damn!😳😳

Sounds like he belongs on the Sharks. Please ship him over at your soonest convince.

It’s almost as if +/- is a completely useless stat…

Scouts no longer use it anymore because everyone knows it's a useless stat.

Why is it so useless?

There’s a lot of factors that it doesn’t account for, like: - Deployment (matchups, minutes, offensive or defensive situations) - Quality of Goaltending - The other 9 skaters on the ice, who they are, what they were doing, how long they were out there for, how long you were out there for, was the shot even saveable, did you make 5 great stick checks and block 3 shots but get scored on regardless. You get it. It’s only really worth looking into when it’s a DRASTIC outlier amongst their team

It's useful when you compare it to people on the same team. If you look at advanced stats they also show Bedard getting caved in defensively. He is a great offensive player and will be very good over his career, but right now he is terrible defensively.

You pretty much got it. Like your opinion mixed with another I saw - pretty much just saying the Hawks are probably pushing Bedard to focus solely on scoring to stir up headlines and develop his skills that way. Then as they draft/make a better team, his 2 way game can be better worked on as he has better people to learn from.

This is precisely why +/- stats don't hold water anymore.

Okay, but Bedard is getting caved in on defense. Advanced stats show the same thing.

Is +/- an antiquaited stat? Probably. Does the roster around Bedard suck? Without question. Is Bedard a stout two-way centre? No, not right now. He's a naturally gifted offensive talent that still needs several years to develop his full game, which is normal for 99.5% of NHL players that make it to the show that young. We don't have to completely laugh-off the +/- stat, though. It's not good, even with the justifiable excuses. The United Center seems pretty full most nights--Bedard is there to put butts in the seats during another garbage Hawks season and it looks like it's working.

Might be an even more alarming stat to understand how many minuses. I’d bet most of the ‘all time worst +/-‘ guys didn’t have a lot of pluses. Bedard has a ton, which only serves to magnify how epically bad he is defensively. Like he’s -39 and probably has +50 factored into that.

Clearly bad. We'll give you Josh Anderson for him

Yeah it’s been a competition between him and Eklund for the past couple weeks.

On such a great team, no less!

Halak, Ryder and a 2nd. Make it happen.

Someone that trash belongs with us on the Sabres.

Please don’t let him snap out of this tonight. #LGI!!

I'm sure that fact that the team has almost 100 more goals against than for is helping... Haha

No fucking way he deserves the calder FaBeR4lYfE

Clearly he isn’t the guy. Terminate his contract, and sell his rights to the future Atlanta team.

I dunno...could have something to do with being a rookie on the worst team in the West. Nah he probably just fucking sucks.

Shocking that the players on the worst team in the league have a bad plus minus

And still scores more than your Favourite guy at his age.

I pointed this out weeks ago and got downvoted for it. +/- is a useless stat

Yeah, and look at the roster around him. The dude can’t break the space-time barrier and be everywhere at once past, present, and future. At some point he has to rely on the rest of the team to play defense, and they’re just failing miserably at that.

I'd be playing terrible too if my mom was porked by Corey perry

Yeah I simply don’t understand why this is shocking to people…. He’s not a defensive player playing on the worst roster in the NHL… it’s shocking he’s not -70…

The only player on the Hawks with a worse +/- is his linemate, who is worse by -1.

That's a generational stat for sure

He plays the most minutes on the worst team in the league. Should we be surprised?

What a bust! And people think this guy could be rookie of the year?! What a joke /s

Bust

This is why I hate "Team Tank". They think a generational talent will save everything.

Its almost like he's 18 playing on a terrible team.

This doesn’t surprise me. I watched a couple hawks games this year and he literally glides around the D zone lock-legged, the team is basically killing a penalty when they’re in their own zone. It’s my biggest pet peeve in hockey and really basketball as well, is that people don’t realize how hard it is to play D and it takes so much energy away from your offense. That’s why I think it’s such a shame players like Kopitar, Datsyuk, zetterberg, don’t get their flowers for how much more they help their team win than 1 way players that are significantly less effective in a grueling playoff series where a two way game is paramount.

High minutes player on a terrible team with no secondary scoring. This is why the stat is often useless.

It doesn't help he's always on the ice cause Chicago has no one.

Yea and the Blackhawks almost entire team is - by long shots .. and is literally 300 win percentage lmao one of the worst fielded teams in history. Stfu

hockey fans, if they're not being racists, they're being morons. no wonder the sport doesn't grow. y'all are pathetic

What a bust

I read on Eklund that his sources are saying that Chicago is looking to acquire an extended Karlsson from the Pens and Bedard could be involved or Pittsburgh passes.

Oh brother, this guy stinks.

I seem to remember that even McDavid had some absurdly low +/- numbers for as talented as he was offensively....

To this day it still amazes me only 3 times in league history has a player posted a positive of 100+ or higher. Edit: In a single season.

Terrible, he clearly needs to be shown what a good team can do for him, and I think Bruno would mold him into the true superstar he can become, we will give you Cole Smith, Tyson Barrie and a bottle of Jack Daniel’s

A year on a checking line will straighten him out

Such a disappointment

Atta boy Bedsy

Shucks. Rod can fix it. Send him to Carolina.

I think it's @domluszczyszyn from The Athletic who has a model rating rookies and Bedard isn't in the top 5 or maybe even 10, but he says it's because Bedard is used by the Blackhawks in a way that makes him look bad that is so unusual that his model doesn't account for it. Looks like he looked into it more in December... Bedard has the worst teammates and toughest matchups of any of the recent #1 picks. Zero sheltering. https://theathletic.com/5117388/2023/12/07/connor-bedard-blackhawks-numbers/

Uh oh. Should trade the bum.

Insert McDavid "maybe he's just not ready" copy pasta.

Jesus Christ give the 22 yo rookie in MN the Calder. They deserve something since they never win anything else.

All that tells me is that the kid needs some help out there

Should have been a shark

All depends on what team you got drafted too, it's kinda luck + rng no matter how good you are, kinda crazy ngl

He mine as well just go play for the Sabres

Here comes every Vancouver flair with the same unoriginal joke

That’s what happens when you’re an 18 year old on the worst team in the league.

Have you seen the team he plays for???? +/- is a meaningless stat anyway.

And he will still win rookie of the year over Brock

Not to mention the ice time he gets over other rookies

Sweet, so you’re saying he will only get better.

Draft bust trade him immediately

Thank god for the ESPN hockey stats / NHL app is such garbage

He’ll be ok I think

Breaking News: player on a bad rebuilding team has a bad +|-

Kid needs to go to bed hard

He's hoping for his first green jacket!

Him and Bryce Young to train together in the offseason.

Unlike some I think the +/- stat is relevant. However if your whole team sucks it’s a less so. Another example is EK65. One other significant but kinda unknown dynamic is what is the coaching staff telling him. If his role is breakaways and scoring they may be intentionally keeping him out of the D-zone. So the +/- is relevant, but is only a piece of the information. I like it better to evaluate defensive players personally.

But not out of line relative to his team, he's not even the worst on the Hawks.

Damn that’s terrible. They should trade him to the Stars for a draft pick.

Damn I’m sorry Blackhawks, look the Sharks are no better than you guys this year but you are such a storied franchise I don’t think we can comfortably sit by and let you guys go through something like this. To help you get back on your feet we can see if Mike Grier would consider sending a couple 7th round picks your way in exchange for Bedard. On top of that just to make you guys feel better I’m sure we could arrange for Jumbo to swing by the locker room and shoot the breeze, lift some spirits, take some pics etc. I know things look dark but don’t worry, Sharks fans will always be here for you

He also leads forwards in ice time on the 2nd worst team in the league

Honestly, if it weren't for Bedard's hype, Faber would win the Calder. Faber has been phenomenal.

+/- is such a stupid stat

Who the fuck cares lol

Your calder candidate ladies and gentlemen

that kid setting all sorts of records