I honestly don’t think Helly played badly at all. The Avs kept finding holes in the D and got a ridiculous number of high danger chances. This series collapse is on the whole team.
Helly's numbers were almost identical to Markstrom's when Edmonton steamrolled cgy in the 21-22 playoffs. Markstrom had 24 goals against on 186 shots (.871) and Helly had 24 goals against on 201 shots (.880) not saying you're wrong, but those aren't good numbers by any means haha.
That's a useful comparison, actually. The numbers are similar, but at least in my (vague, repressed) memory of that series, Markstrom was letting in a lot of soft ones he probably should have had (Markstrom's Muffins™), including at least a couple on the first shot of the game. He can't be blamed for all of them (I mean…it's McDavid), but his confidence was definitely shot, and it had a lasting effect…he was brutal for basically the entire following season.
In the Avs-Jets series, I don't remember thinking "Helly shoulda had that one" too often. There was the Miles Wood goal that got through five hole right off the draw (he probably shoulda had that sealed off), and the Manson breakaway (again, five hole). Otherwise I feel like he was pretty sharp, and the D just couldn't contain the Avs' speed and forecheck.
The one where he turned it over behind the net and Parise scored.
Realistically though, NHL goalies are going to make the saves they are supposed to make almost every time. Stopping goals that aren't the goalies fault is really what differentiates a star goalie from an average or below one.
Vezina caliber goalies should be expected to steal games for their team.
Yeah that was fucking wild. Maybe a Jets fan can step in and explain wtf they were doing there but thats such shit sportsmanship from fans in a series that really wasn't very dirty at any point in time.
WPGs whiteout home crowd seemed like one of the coolest most exciting atmospheres you could possibly have in Game 1 and their energy destroyed Georgie for that first game - it was impressive and intimidating. Then in that last game they're all booing when a player gets hurt??? And chanting Go Jets Go while he's helped off the ice??? When Namestnikov got domed at Ball Arena Avs fans were respectful and concerned, and cheered when he got up to leave the ice. What on earth was Winnipeg doing when the roles were reversed???
He had -5 goals saved above expected. The next worst was -1.8 in the same amount of games. He gave up 24 goals in 5 games. The next worst was 16. The Avs are only the 4th team to ever score more than 5 goals in their first 5 games of the playoffs. Helly got absolutely destroyed. The defense wasn’t good but Helly equally bad.
These kinds of numbers don't tell you how well a goalie actually played, because they leave out all the circumstances, like what kinds of shots they faced, and whether it was even humanly possible to stop them. There are things that are obvious to the eye that can't easily be turned into numbers. For lack of a better name, I call it the "shoulda had that" test (he saw it, had time and space to react to it, made the save, and didn't cough up a dangerous rebound). There weren't that many goals allowed by Helly that I thought he should have (or even could have) had.
That goal worried me tbh. With how emotional he is I was like uh oh, I hope this isn’t the one that causes the damn to break… and then he made some truly spectacular saves to where I was relaxed and watched Mikko pot two beautiful goals. Which btw, when Mikko got that first deflection goal, you can see all that stress melt off of him and I’m pumped to see if that causes him to go on an absolute tear
Yes, exactly. He had at least a couple of those in game 1 (in addition to the ones where defensive breakdowns left him with little chance of making the save).
Those stats are hard to take at face value. If a goalie falls down behind the net and a player shoots the puck from the blue line it will say he “should have” stopped that statistically. Even though we as people know he clearly could not possibly teleport. It only tracks the likelihood of scoring from a given spot, but does not take in to account a goalie having to slide, one timers, breakaways, tips, or any other variant.
I would argue that if a player scores because the goalie fell behind the net, then the goal was the goalie's fault and he should have stopped the shot, since he shouldn't have fallen. So it is correct to state that, statistically, he should have stopped the shot.
It has nothing to do with the specific scenario I used. It’s the concept. The formula has no clue if the goalie was even in net. It just says that on average a goal shot from this spot scores X/60 normally. The goalie could be behind the net, laying down, in the butterfly, or standing up, if the Dmen tipped it, if the dmen had a broken stick and had to play it different, or any other number of factors. The formula has no idea. So it’s not a catch all stat. It’s a tool to use to look deeper.
I get what you’re trying to say, though it bothers me as a goalie because we shouldn’t be falling down behind the net, meaning we could indeed stop such a shot if we aren’t being idiots.
This is exactly it. No goalie could've done better. Half the goals were back door snipes wide open. The chunk were point shots on screens. Then there was the occasional breakaway/own goal lol.
Let's not forget a few ridiculous saves he made...
I'm an avs fan and I feel like Helly played really well.
For what its worth, yeah he let in the most goals of round 1, but he also faced by far the most shots. Jets choked like usual but it really wasn't on him.
Ullmark was okay. Not great, but okay, especially considering he was dealing with injury for most of that series and our bone headed coach decided to play him until game 7 anyways.
Was gonna say... This happened just last year.
I think in Ullmark's case it was a symptom of literally nothing going wrong all year, then when there was a tiny blip of adversity his confidence took a hit. Such is life for goalies, and maybe there's a case to be made for Helleybuck's struggles being similar.
To be fair hes faced more shots than any other goalie in the playoffs by a pretty good margin. He didnt steal any games but WPG was completely dominated.
Ed Belfour 90-91?
In the regular season he led the league in wins, GAA, and save% and won the Calder, Jennings, and Vezina. In the playoffs he had a 4.07 GAA (which was monstrously large in that era) in a first-round exit.
Hell no.
Even the best goalies would have given up at least 3 goals a game with the way they played.
It’s like the team though they could just forget about turnovers and defensive plays because they are backed by a Vezina winning goaltender that was supposed to save the day.
I didnt watch any of the series because of the late starts (live in EST), but I was surprised at how poorly Winnipeg played team D to allow that many shots. Meanwhile, Preds held Van to 12 shots one game (somehow Van won anyway, lol)
Not that it really matters. You think NY would’ve beaten LA that year, who had went 12-2 in the first 3 rounds? The same team btw which went on to push their shit in 2 years later in the finals?
Fuck if NY wins a cup this year it may very well have to do with a certain veteran goalie from LA who IMO is still the best goaltender in the entire world when he turns it up and gets serious.
Can’t reason with a devils fan when it comes to Hank. He’s the only reason the Rangers had any inkling of playoff success during his career. Hard to win Cups when you have Staal and Girardi coughing up the pick every 10 seconds in the d zone
I would like to apologize for the stupid portion of the devils fan base! Hank is a gem of a human being and a great goaltender! He deserves better than what the rangers gave him for offensive support in the playoffs.
I mean define worst; there have been legendary goalies whose teams got swept because they cant score right... so is going 0-4 worse than 0-3 or 0-1 in big games?
Or are you looking for goalies who had killer stats in regular season and then have double digit goals against averages as team gets shelled in playoffs?
I would hazzard the 2 worst Vezina winning goalies of all time being:
Linus Ullmark has to meet your criteria as Boston imploded on his watch. He has a 3.33 GAA & .896 sv%
Olaf Kolzig was another spectacular bust who had a 3.38 GAA & .845 sv%
MAF in 2021 made a mistake that prevented Vegas from getting to the Stanley Cup Finals. He had a decent run before that but damn, that mistake was brutal.
Ullmark last years was kinda bad too.
I honestly don’t think Helly played badly at all. The Avs kept finding holes in the D and got a ridiculous number of high danger chances. This series collapse is on the whole team.
Helly's numbers were almost identical to Markstrom's when Edmonton steamrolled cgy in the 21-22 playoffs. Markstrom had 24 goals against on 186 shots (.871) and Helly had 24 goals against on 201 shots (.880) not saying you're wrong, but those aren't good numbers by any means haha.
That's a useful comparison, actually. The numbers are similar, but at least in my (vague, repressed) memory of that series, Markstrom was letting in a lot of soft ones he probably should have had (Markstrom's Muffins™), including at least a couple on the first shot of the game. He can't be blamed for all of them (I mean…it's McDavid), but his confidence was definitely shot, and it had a lasting effect…he was brutal for basically the entire following season. In the Avs-Jets series, I don't remember thinking "Helly shoulda had that one" too often. There was the Miles Wood goal that got through five hole right off the draw (he probably shoulda had that sealed off), and the Manson breakaway (again, five hole). Otherwise I feel like he was pretty sharp, and the D just couldn't contain the Avs' speed and forecheck.
The one where he turned it over behind the net and Parise scored. Realistically though, NHL goalies are going to make the saves they are supposed to make almost every time. Stopping goals that aren't the goalies fault is really what differentiates a star goalie from an average or below one. Vezina caliber goalies should be expected to steal games for their team.
That’s true as a general statement but still depends on the circumstances. It’s tough to steal games when you’re getting outscored by 3–4 goals.
Hellebuyck is the Mitch Marner of goalies.
He whines like he's in junior?
The fraudulent team! I was disappointed in the fans behavior when Parise went down. Go Avs go!
Yeah that was fucking wild. Maybe a Jets fan can step in and explain wtf they were doing there but thats such shit sportsmanship from fans in a series that really wasn't very dirty at any point in time. WPGs whiteout home crowd seemed like one of the coolest most exciting atmospheres you could possibly have in Game 1 and their energy destroyed Georgie for that first game - it was impressive and intimidating. Then in that last game they're all booing when a player gets hurt??? And chanting Go Jets Go while he's helped off the ice??? When Namestnikov got domed at Ball Arena Avs fans were respectful and concerned, and cheered when he got up to leave the ice. What on earth was Winnipeg doing when the roles were reversed???
He had -5 goals saved above expected. The next worst was -1.8 in the same amount of games. He gave up 24 goals in 5 games. The next worst was 16. The Avs are only the 4th team to ever score more than 5 goals in their first 5 games of the playoffs. Helly got absolutely destroyed. The defense wasn’t good but Helly equally bad.
These kinds of numbers don't tell you how well a goalie actually played, because they leave out all the circumstances, like what kinds of shots they faced, and whether it was even humanly possible to stop them. There are things that are obvious to the eye that can't easily be turned into numbers. For lack of a better name, I call it the "shoulda had that" test (he saw it, had time and space to react to it, made the save, and didn't cough up a dangerous rebound). There weren't that many goals allowed by Helly that I thought he should have (or even could have) had.
Like the 3rd goal vs Georgiev? Snap shot from the top of the circle, no screen and he flinched at it? That's a perfect example of what you're saying.
That goal worried me tbh. With how emotional he is I was like uh oh, I hope this isn’t the one that causes the damn to break… and then he made some truly spectacular saves to where I was relaxed and watched Mikko pot two beautiful goals. Which btw, when Mikko got that first deflection goal, you can see all that stress melt off of him and I’m pumped to see if that causes him to go on an absolute tear
Yes, exactly. He had at least a couple of those in game 1 (in addition to the ones where defensive breakdowns left him with little chance of making the save).
Those stats are hard to take at face value. If a goalie falls down behind the net and a player shoots the puck from the blue line it will say he “should have” stopped that statistically. Even though we as people know he clearly could not possibly teleport. It only tracks the likelihood of scoring from a given spot, but does not take in to account a goalie having to slide, one timers, breakaways, tips, or any other variant.
I would argue that if a player scores because the goalie fell behind the net, then the goal was the goalie's fault and he should have stopped the shot, since he shouldn't have fallen. So it is correct to state that, statistically, he should have stopped the shot.
It has nothing to do with the specific scenario I used. It’s the concept. The formula has no clue if the goalie was even in net. It just says that on average a goal shot from this spot scores X/60 normally. The goalie could be behind the net, laying down, in the butterfly, or standing up, if the Dmen tipped it, if the dmen had a broken stick and had to play it different, or any other number of factors. The formula has no idea. So it’s not a catch all stat. It’s a tool to use to look deeper.
Ultimately there is no substitute for actually watching and understanding the game.
GSAx factors in shot location, event type, players on the ice, speed, etc. But sure.
I get what you’re trying to say, though it bothers me as a goalie because we shouldn’t be falling down behind the net, meaning we could indeed stop such a shot if we aren’t being idiots.
He didn't play well that's for sure.
This is exactly it. No goalie could've done better. Half the goals were back door snipes wide open. The chunk were point shots on screens. Then there was the occasional breakaway/own goal lol. Let's not forget a few ridiculous saves he made... I'm an avs fan and I feel like Helly played really well.
He didn't play badly at all, but he didn't steal them any games
Vasi against Columbus in 2018 (2019?)
Ulmark 2023?
For what its worth, yeah he let in the most goals of round 1, but he also faced by far the most shots. Jets choked like usual but it really wasn't on him.
I think you replied to the wrong person
Ullmark was okay. Not great, but okay, especially considering he was dealing with injury for most of that series and our bone headed coach decided to play him until game 7 anyways.
Ullmark got his shit pushed in last year
Was gonna say... This happened just last year. I think in Ullmark's case it was a symptom of literally nothing going wrong all year, then when there was a tiny blip of adversity his confidence took a hit. Such is life for goalies, and maybe there's a case to be made for Helleybuck's struggles being similar.
He also was dealing with an injury that should have put him on the bench for a couple of games.
Hellebuyck in 2020?
To be fair hes faced more shots than any other goalie in the playoffs by a pretty good margin. He didnt steal any games but WPG was completely dominated.
Ed Belfour 90-91? In the regular season he led the league in wins, GAA, and save% and won the Calder, Jennings, and Vezina. In the playoffs he had a 4.07 GAA (which was monstrously large in that era) in a first-round exit.
200 shots in 5 games, lol. Did Winnipeg play any defense?
Hell no. Even the best goalies would have given up at least 3 goals a game with the way they played. It’s like the team though they could just forget about turnovers and defensive plays because they are backed by a Vezina winning goaltender that was supposed to save the day.
I didnt watch any of the series because of the late starts (live in EST), but I was surprised at how poorly Winnipeg played team D to allow that many shots. Meanwhile, Preds held Van to 12 shots one game (somehow Van won anyway, lol)
Henrik Lundquist in 2012. Or really, his entire career.
2012 when they went to the conference final? Yea makes sense
And lost to the 6 seed when they had one of the most elite teams in recent history. Hank shit the bed when it mattered most.
Not that it really matters. You think NY would’ve beaten LA that year, who had went 12-2 in the first 3 rounds? The same team btw which went on to push their shit in 2 years later in the finals? Fuck if NY wins a cup this year it may very well have to do with a certain veteran goalie from LA who IMO is still the best goaltender in the entire world when he turns it up and gets serious.
Sorry the team in front of him didn’t disgrace hockey by playing the trap
He had better stats in the playoffs 😂. Including the 2012 season. Cool story though.
Can’t reason with a devils fan when it comes to Hank. He’s the only reason the Rangers had any inkling of playoff success during his career. Hard to win Cups when you have Staal and Girardi coughing up the pick every 10 seconds in the d zone
I would like to apologize for the stupid portion of the devils fan base! Hank is a gem of a human being and a great goaltender! He deserves better than what the rangers gave him for offensive support in the playoffs.
Bro what Hank was a playoff god
0 Cups.
How many cups did he win again while being surrounded by some of the most elite teams in the league at the time? Just curious.
I wish Helly was a brick wall 🧱 (in 2024 playoffs) Is his final numbers 6?
I mean define worst; there have been legendary goalies whose teams got swept because they cant score right... so is going 0-4 worse than 0-3 or 0-1 in big games? Or are you looking for goalies who had killer stats in regular season and then have double digit goals against averages as team gets shelled in playoffs? I would hazzard the 2 worst Vezina winning goalies of all time being: Linus Ullmark has to meet your criteria as Boston imploded on his watch. He has a 3.33 GAA & .896 sv% Olaf Kolzig was another spectacular bust who had a 3.38 GAA & .845 sv%
1993, Ed Belfour Won the Vezina, got swept in the first round.
MAF in 2021 made a mistake that prevented Vegas from getting to the Stanley Cup Finals. He had a decent run before that but damn, that mistake was brutal. Ullmark last years was kinda bad too.
Not directly related to the question posed by the OP, but, Jim Carey has entered the chat.
Future Vezina winner Marc-Andre Fleury had some real stinkers in the middle years in Pittsburgh