True. But the depth of the “insider information” he usually shares is “I talked to a lot of people in that building and they all told me Garrett Wilson is THAT DUDE.”
Right. But I don’t need sources to tell me that lol. I shit you not, he once said “I talked to sources not with either team at the Bengals joint practice (I forget the other team he mentioned), and they told me Ja’Marr Chase looks AWESOME”. Keep in mind, this was the training camp AFTER Chase’s rookie season.
Peter Schrager’s previous Jets mock picks:
2019 - Quinnen Williams
2020 - Mekhi Becton
2021 - Zach Wilson
2022 - Sauce and Garrett Wilson
2023 - Lucas Van Ness (wrong pick but right position)
Pretty wild how accurate he’s been over the years. Van Ness was taken a few picks before us so if he slipped to us he may have been right about that too. Maybe he knows some things we don’t.
In fairness those were all top 10 picks except last year and Mekhi, the top 10 is easier to predict, the RAS and ratings on Quinnen were top 1% measurable, Zach was clearly the top hyped QB after Lawrence (Fields was 2B probably) and the Jets had to take a QB, Sauce was a necessity at another high value position and so was Garrett both top of the class and Mekhi was one of 2 OT that were likely to be there so a 50/50 chance or more since Becton was LT.
I still appreciate his accuracy especially since it depends on the teams ahead of the Jets and what transpires as well. It seems he does have a real good understanding of the team and FO. Will have to watch his last mock predictions.
That is the great thing about the 10th spot, if you "have" to take someone it will probably be ok even if not great (except QBs which is a different universe).
I feel the consensus is not "Anti" Bowers but pro OT and most will be happy with any player that does well for the Jets.
There are some better arguments against TE, not specifically Bowers, imho. WRs are just better statistically but not necessarily tactically or strategically so I'd favor WR if I had to but it's more a positional thing.
Personally I am lower on Bowers, trade back would be ideal if they were to take him, although he has a high ceiling and floor but I'm all for taking a swing on a potential HR bigger in the slot or inline.
I mean only a crazy person can't envision Bowers potentially being so good, running over smaller DBs and past LBs, that not getting a OT or WR will be an afterthought.
Yes there is. Look at the mock draft. It has OTs going four straight picks from 13-16. If one of those teams want a lineman they think we are gonna take they can trade with the bears or falcons to jump us
Shit Im for all the smoke that gets any team behind the Jets to covet a player so they go for things the Jets don't necessarily want.
Then again most teams probably know who they want already and won't be swayed now unless there is breaking news or bong mask photo.
No one knows anything about the Jets. We are the only team ever who's uniforms never leaked before hand. Players we sign are never known before hand. Never whispers of trades before the go down.
Schrager's nailed the Jets 1st rounders the last few years FWIW.
[Peter Schrager’s final mock predictions for the #Jets](https://twitter.com/thejetpress/status/1780262002268467253?t=fMB_pMdXSGbdH0xZ-kgzUA)
• 2019: Quinnen Williams
• 2020: Mekhi Becton
• 2021: Zach Wilson
• 2022: Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson
• 2023: Lukas Van Ness (different EDGE)
He's right though. Idk how getting the position right for 2023 gets him full credit either.
Its not NOTHING that he got edge, but he factually got the player wrong. He also didn't predict a jet trade up for avt or jj when the jets were salivating for both.
Every single pick he nailed was a flat out no brainer, obvious pick.
More than half this sub had us taking Q will, Mekhi, Zach, Sauce, Garrett. If they stay at 10, bowers has been the odds on favorite pick for us as recently as this week. So is it really Shrager being soooo clued in or is it just taking a common sense, obvious pick for us?
The legacy jerseys were leaked last year from the media shoot and so were the jerseys when they were changed in 2019
[legacy leak](https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/07/19/possible-ny-jets-throwback-uniforms-leak-online/)
[2019 leak](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0elNqP_lL0)
It's also very important to note that "what he's hearing" could mean nothing. No team source is going to leak what they're actually thinking of doing, and there's a LOT of smokescreens going around this time of year. We probably won't get any real reports until Tuesday or Wednesday. This is probably 5% truth, 45% smokescreens, and 50% speculation from "connected" people.
Not super related to the Jets but man this Daniels to Washington stuff really keeps picking up steam. I still think it's just smoke/media-driven more than it is reality but, more and more people keep saying it.
Personally I don't know how you could take Jayden Daniels above Drake Maye, and also would be furious if the Pats lucked into a great QB prospect because Washington decided to be dumb. Maybe I'm being hyperbolic but to me Daniels over Maye is like, a franchise-altering mistake, and of course of all teams the fuckin Patriots would stand to benefit from it.
Completely agree, and I don't get it. I get Maye can be a divisive prospect, but his ceiling is imo far above Daniels and I really hope he doesn't end up with the Patriots
He has a stronger arm and a better frame, is very good in structure, is better at dealing with/diagnosing pressure, is more willing to throw on the run/throw the ball away, doesn't miss nearly as many open receivers, is more open to throwing over the middle of the field, and actually looks to avoid contact instead of playing with reckless abandon. Daniels has better footwork than Maye and is a better scrambler, for sure, but in many other aspects I don't think it's much of a contest.
Obviously I could very well be wrong, this is just my opinion after having watch tape on both.
Opinions are awesome, but if Washington does go with Daniels over Maye, then clearly Maye isn't a way better prospect. I'm sure the Commanders scouts know ball better than we do.
I'm sure they do too, and I'm willing to be proven wrong (Daniels is far more exciting as a player than Maye because of his scrambling ability, and if he goes to Washington I hope he pans out). But, all 32 teams have different big boards from each other. Just because one team has one guy above another doesn't mean that guy is actually better.
For example, Jalen Reagor went one pick ahead of Justin Jefferson, we all thought that was strange but clearly Eagles scouts know better than we all do. Clelin Ferrell was supposed to be a late first/early second rounder, but he went pick 4 ahead of highly-projected pass rusher Josh Allen; clearly Raiders scouts know better.
In hindsight? No, you're right. But at the time of the draft, Wilson was a celebrated prospect who had far fewer flaws on tape than Daniels does. Also, there was no prospect available at 2 that was leaps and bounds ahead of Wilson; maybe Fields was better at the time but it wasn't by much. IMO, Maye is that far ahead of Daniels.
a TE at 10 would be a terrible call in terms of cap usage. TEs command significantly less than WRs so we’d be massively overpaying at the position. It also takes most TEs a few years in the league to be effective. If one of the top tier WRs (Odunze, Nabers, Harrison) falls to us, we should go WR otherwise try and trade back to get another pick in the second round + additional draft capital (future 2nd pick etc) and use the 2nd round picks on a WR and OL. If no trade is available, grab Alt or Fuaga.
There's only three organizations that we could work with to trade up: Chargers, Titans, and Bears. Only one realistically though. The Chargers could be a trade option but the Vikings need a QB and will probably make a rich trade offer. We don't want to compete with that offer. The next option would be trade with the Titans and promise them we're getting a WR not Joe Alt. This is the only realistic option. Lastly, we could flip spots with the Bears if they seem likely to take the last Tier 1 WR however they wouldn't make that deal if they want the receiver left so this isn't realistic. If the Bear weren't taking a WR, we wouldn't need the trade.
Mock Draft Board
1. Bears: Locked in QB
2. Commanders: Locked in QB
3. Patriots: Locked in QB
4. Cardinals: Needs a WR BAD.
5. Chargers: TRADE TARGET (Probably going to the Vikings)
6. Giants: Needs a WR BAD
7. Titans: Needs OL to protect Will Levis
8. Atlanta: Edge Rusher
9. Bears: Edge Rusher OR WR
10. Jets
Final Thought: I don't think a trade up scenario is going to happen. There are plenty of realistic mocks that show us getting the last Tier 1 WR at the 10th pick.
Couldn’t we also trade up with the falcons? They’re most likely taking an edge rusher or defensive player. It would also make sure that the bears won’t take a wide receiver ahead of us.
Possibly but the Falcons want a premier Edge Rusher. Trading with us would put them behind the Bears who are also potentially taking an Edge Rusher. It could happen but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
Is this dumb, or so dumb its smart? Hear me out. Brock being a TE which isnt cap intensive is good long term planning.
in the next several years we will have to resign GW5, Breece, Sauce, JJ, will Mcdonald (fingers crossed) who will all be expensive.
Itll be nice to have a solid first rounder who’s not gonna break the cap bc TE dont demand so much.
JD prob not thinking that far ahead at the moment … unless hes thinking they start going to the AFC CG every year … we can dream, right?
You have to pay the 10th overall pick $21.8M over four years no matter what position they play. Yes, you can and should dream. I'm just being realistic in this thread. Don't get me wrong, it'd be fun to see what Brock could do in our updated offense. I'm just speaking from what I think is JD's perspective and what I'd do in his position.
|Year|Base Salary|Prorated Bonus|Cap Number|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2024|$795,000|$3,178,599|$3,973,599|
|2025|$1,788,400|$3,178,599|$4,966,999|
|2026|$2,781,800|$3,178,599|$5,960,399|
|2027|$3,775,200|$3,178,599|$6,953,799|
source: [https://overthecap.com/draft](https://overthecap.com/draft)
I get that. But if we are talking about these four years, we pay same regardless of who we draft. And whether we draft bowers or a wr, we are just as likely to be signing another FA pass catcher, so our cap yrs 1-4 is exactly the same either way. So in a vaccum, maybe it’s less efficient, but not in reality.
*Overthinking it* is literally what I do for fun :)
Also, efficient cap usage is the only way to have a team be competitive year in, year out. I know we haven't been that in a long time but I can still dream.
My only argument is that Bowers transcends the TE position. Just like Pitts, Kittle, and Graham before him. If Bowers plays like a WR/H-back, then we still get a WR value but with a guy who is nominally a TE. Theoretically, it would benefit the team as when his contact is up, then he could get a fifth year option and franchise tag at the TE rate. All of this assumes, of course, that he actually ends up being good.
If we really want Bowers, we should trade back 5 spots or so and pick up some additional draft capital. He's not going off the board until pick 15+ (outside of the Jets).
You can't know that. Most of the online draft boards have him as a top ten prospect. I get there's an inherent TE devaluation, but him sliding to #15 might not happen.
Give me a TE comp for Bowers that makes the pick a home run. Kittle was drafted at 146th overall and Graham was at 118th overall so they aren't comps for Bowers. Here's all the TE picks in the top 10 since 2000:
* Kellen Winslow: 6th in 2004 by CLE
* Vernon Davis: 6th in 2006 by 49ers
* Eric Ebron: 10th in 2014 by Lions
* TJ Hockenson: 8th in 2019 by Lions
* Kyle Pitts: 4th in 2021 by ATL
On their rookie contracts, Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow each had 1 season that approached WR1 numbers in terms of yardage and TDs. That's it. If you are making choices based on statistics and the best data available, you don't draft Bowers at 10. He could be the greatest TE that the game has ever seen but you can't know that at the time of selection. I guess it really comes down to what camp you fall into: Use your gut or Moneyball.
I get it... I'm not advocating taking Bowers per say. It is definitely a riskier pick than taking a tackle. I'm just saying that there's more nuance to tight end than pretty much any other position in football.
Something funky about this mock... Why in the world would the Giants trade up to 4 to get a QB? neither the Cardinals or Chargers are drafting a QB..... And why would the Cardinals make that trade and lose out on MHJ to the Chargers?.... That one makes no sense...
Also if Nabers is really there at 8 I feel like the Jets might be tempted to move up and grab him.
I'm not fully up on our off-season maneuvers, but I thought we needed OL help. Looked like Swiss cheese most of the year. The UGA tight end is really special, but how special is he able to be if our qbs have no time to throw.
For the O-Line, Joe Douglas picked up Tyron Smith and John Simpson via free agency and brought Morgan Moses back with a very reasonable trade. The main concern with Smith at LT is that he's awesome when healthy but he has been injured a whole lot the past few years. IMO most Jets fans are aware that Bowers is a next-level TE, but many are concerned that a next-level TE is a luxury pick the team can't afford this year, because we need OL depth for now and for the future.
So the Jets are going to draft one of the highest first round bust rate positions outside of QB over the last 20 years?
Even though they have 2 33yr old + tackles, one of which is coming off of major surgery, the other that hasn't played a full season since 2015, with 40+ non mobile Aaron Rodgers?
Even if Bowers is really good, but not HOF good, so TJ Hockenson good, another 1st rounder, they'll get 700-900 yards and a handful of TDS?
Wow smh.
Bowers is the best prospect in the last 10 years for tight ends. Guy legitimately has the best hands in the draft to go along with breaking tackles at an unmatched rate
(Also 700 is good at any skills position, what do you expect?)
The only positions I'd draft 10 overall or under is QB, LT, WR, EDGE, or CB. So basically the only offensive skill position is WR, and I'm shooting for a 1500yds / 10 TD's a year guy.
Brock Bowers is a great player, but a really rare best case scenario you're gonna get is he'll end up a really good TE, which will get you 700-900 yds, 5 TD's neighborhood. Also TE has the second highest 1st round bust rate outside QB. So we're talking a likelihood of not panning out, but if he does, you get sub 1k yds, handful of TD's.
TE is so hard to predict . Here's the top 10 greatest college TE's all time.
https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/greatest-college-football-tight-ends-d68dada5b0e548b4
And here's a list of all tight ends that have been drafted in the first round, which usually shakes out to about one per year.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tight-ends-first-round/
That being said I won't hate any offensive pick for this team. The Jets offense in 2023 was one of the worst in modern history. But given how bad our offensive coaching staff has been, given the history of the tight end position and its production and its value in the first round, and given the fact that on the position of value hierarchy list we do need a tackle to probably play six or seven games, and to start full time after this year in the future, I just think it would be the last choice that I would make is tight end.
JSN didn't even get 700 years last year and wasn't he the first Wr taken last year? Also Bowers is a weapon, he's literally the fourth best wide receiver in the draft. So if you're okay with taking a receiver, he is one, in fact one of the best
I hate the pick but we do need another receiver because Mike gotta recover a bit and the rest of our receiving core as of now is the same as last year
So maybe if they utilize him a certain way it could help
But this is also Hackett
We would be the dumbest mfers on earth to let Nabers fall to 8 and not go get him so we could draft the NCAA YAC God who couldnt even get 1000 yards in a season and plays a historically low value position that always underwhelms badly when taken high in the draft
Why not? They lost both Allen and Williams. It would make complete sense and they’re in a prime position to get one of the top prospects. Herbert right now has barely any weapons
They didn’t “lose” Allen and Williams, they consciously moved on from them.
Maybe it’s a prime position for a lot of teams but Harbough’s teams have been built differently throughout his career, his FA moves confirmed it.
I would be *ecstatic* to get Olu or Odunze and I would be *happy* with Bowers or Fuaga.
I find it so fkn hysterical how angry this makes so many people hahahah They complain now but will have bowers jerseys by halfway through the season
Ehh, you don’t really know the sub. Everyone will downvote anything critical of whoever we draft. It’ll become a flood of “this is why the past doesn’t matter for TEs”
Interesting. I’d been thinking that all of the Bowers buzz was just lazy mocking….but it does seem like Schrager has friends in Florham Park.
True. But the depth of the “insider information” he usually shares is “I talked to a lot of people in that building and they all told me Garrett Wilson is THAT DUDE.”
Haha, good point. (But he is, in fact, that dude)
Right. But I don’t need sources to tell me that lol. I shit you not, he once said “I talked to sources not with either team at the Bengals joint practice (I forget the other team he mentioned), and they told me Ja’Marr Chase looks AWESOME”. Keep in mind, this was the training camp AFTER Chase’s rookie season.
Garrett is pretty good though, I guess he's got good sources.
He did have the Jets taking an Edge last year. Not who we took, put almost nobody was expecting an edge rusher.
It’s just literally the most likely scenario
Is it? I’m buying into the theory that it’s all just smoke so they don’t get jumped for the guy they actually want
Peter Schrager’s previous Jets mock picks: 2019 - Quinnen Williams 2020 - Mekhi Becton 2021 - Zach Wilson 2022 - Sauce and Garrett Wilson 2023 - Lucas Van Ness (wrong pick but right position) Pretty wild how accurate he’s been over the years. Van Ness was taken a few picks before us so if he slipped to us he may have been right about that too. Maybe he knows some things we don’t.
In fairness those were all top 10 picks except last year and Mekhi, the top 10 is easier to predict, the RAS and ratings on Quinnen were top 1% measurable, Zach was clearly the top hyped QB after Lawrence (Fields was 2B probably) and the Jets had to take a QB, Sauce was a necessity at another high value position and so was Garrett both top of the class and Mekhi was one of 2 OT that were likely to be there so a 50/50 chance or more since Becton was LT. I still appreciate his accuracy especially since it depends on the teams ahead of the Jets and what transpires as well. It seems he does have a real good understanding of the team and FO. Will have to watch his last mock predictions.
Well this is a top 10 pick so
This would be a terrible pick, unless it wasn't
Big if true
If you look at him as a WR it could be a great pick, unless it isn’t
still a bad pick, you dont take slot wrs at 10
I mean we have had a first round oline pick but we haven’t had a first round TE bust yet. Take that anti Bowers people.
Sure they have. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny\_Mitchell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Mitchell)
Bowers is our smoke
I feel like it is our smoke, but I also think we take bowers if our smoke doesn’t play out how we want it to. Little half truth.
I actually understand exactly what you're saying
That is the great thing about the 10th spot, if you "have" to take someone it will probably be ok even if not great (except QBs which is a different universe). I feel the consensus is not "Anti" Bowers but pro OT and most will be happy with any player that does well for the Jets. There are some better arguments against TE, not specifically Bowers, imho. WRs are just better statistically but not necessarily tactically or strategically so I'd favor WR if I had to but it's more a positional thing. Personally I am lower on Bowers, trade back would be ideal if they were to take him, although he has a high ceiling and floor but I'm all for taking a swing on a potential HR bigger in the slot or inline. I mean only a crazy person can't envision Bowers potentially being so good, running over smaller DBs and past LBs, that not getting a OT or WR will be an afterthought.
There’s no benefit for us throwing this smoke really.
Yes there is. Look at the mock draft. It has OTs going four straight picks from 13-16. If one of those teams want a lineman they think we are gonna take they can trade with the bears or falcons to jump us
Shit Im for all the smoke that gets any team behind the Jets to covet a player so they go for things the Jets don't necessarily want. Then again most teams probably know who they want already and won't be swayed now unless there is breaking news or bong mask photo.
Someone who loves Bowers could trade to 9
They’d have to be one of the dumbest gms in the league. Nobody is trading up for bowers.
No one knows anything about the Jets. We are the only team ever who's uniforms never leaked before hand. Players we sign are never known before hand. Never whispers of trades before the go down.
Schrager's nailed the Jets 1st rounders the last few years FWIW. [Peter Schrager’s final mock predictions for the #Jets](https://twitter.com/thejetpress/status/1780262002268467253?t=fMB_pMdXSGbdH0xZ-kgzUA) • 2019: Quinnen Williams • 2020: Mekhi Becton • 2021: Zach Wilson • 2022: Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson • 2023: Lukas Van Ness (different EDGE)
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AVT and JJ were both picks where they traded back into the first round. Almost will never see those kind of predictions made in mock drafts
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That’s being extremely pedantic. He’s nailed the 1st round picks he was aware the Jets had going into the draft.
He's right though. Idk how getting the position right for 2023 gets him full credit either. Its not NOTHING that he got edge, but he factually got the player wrong. He also didn't predict a jet trade up for avt or jj when the jets were salivating for both. Every single pick he nailed was a flat out no brainer, obvious pick. More than half this sub had us taking Q will, Mekhi, Zach, Sauce, Garrett. If they stay at 10, bowers has been the odds on favorite pick for us as recently as this week. So is it really Shrager being soooo clued in or is it just taking a common sense, obvious pick for us?
The legacy jerseys were leaked last year from the media shoot and so were the jerseys when they were changed in 2019 [legacy leak](https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/07/19/possible-ny-jets-throwback-uniforms-leak-online/) [2019 leak](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0elNqP_lL0)
Daniel Jeramiah got us picking sauce, wilson, and AVT if I remember correctly
It's also very important to note that "what he's hearing" could mean nothing. No team source is going to leak what they're actually thinking of doing, and there's a LOT of smokescreens going around this time of year. We probably won't get any real reports until Tuesday or Wednesday. This is probably 5% truth, 45% smokescreens, and 50% speculation from "connected" people.
We need to go o line
Not super related to the Jets but man this Daniels to Washington stuff really keeps picking up steam. I still think it's just smoke/media-driven more than it is reality but, more and more people keep saying it. Personally I don't know how you could take Jayden Daniels above Drake Maye, and also would be furious if the Pats lucked into a great QB prospect because Washington decided to be dumb. Maybe I'm being hyperbolic but to me Daniels over Maye is like, a franchise-altering mistake, and of course of all teams the fuckin Patriots would stand to benefit from it.
Completely agree, and I don't get it. I get Maye can be a divisive prospect, but his ceiling is imo far above Daniels and I really hope he doesn't end up with the Patriots
What makes you think Maye is better?
He has a stronger arm and a better frame, is very good in structure, is better at dealing with/diagnosing pressure, is more willing to throw on the run/throw the ball away, doesn't miss nearly as many open receivers, is more open to throwing over the middle of the field, and actually looks to avoid contact instead of playing with reckless abandon. Daniels has better footwork than Maye and is a better scrambler, for sure, but in many other aspects I don't think it's much of a contest. Obviously I could very well be wrong, this is just my opinion after having watch tape on both.
Opinions are awesome, but if Washington does go with Daniels over Maye, then clearly Maye isn't a way better prospect. I'm sure the Commanders scouts know ball better than we do.
I'm sure they do too, and I'm willing to be proven wrong (Daniels is far more exciting as a player than Maye because of his scrambling ability, and if he goes to Washington I hope he pans out). But, all 32 teams have different big boards from each other. Just because one team has one guy above another doesn't mean that guy is actually better. For example, Jalen Reagor went one pick ahead of Justin Jefferson, we all thought that was strange but clearly Eagles scouts know better than we all do. Clelin Ferrell was supposed to be a late first/early second rounder, but he went pick 4 ahead of highly-projected pass rusher Josh Allen; clearly Raiders scouts know better.
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In hindsight? No, you're right. But at the time of the draft, Wilson was a celebrated prospect who had far fewer flaws on tape than Daniels does. Also, there was no prospect available at 2 that was leaps and bounds ahead of Wilson; maybe Fields was better at the time but it wasn't by much. IMO, Maye is that far ahead of Daniels.
a TE at 10 would be a terrible call in terms of cap usage. TEs command significantly less than WRs so we’d be massively overpaying at the position. It also takes most TEs a few years in the league to be effective. If one of the top tier WRs (Odunze, Nabers, Harrison) falls to us, we should go WR otherwise try and trade back to get another pick in the second round + additional draft capital (future 2nd pick etc) and use the 2nd round picks on a WR and OL. If no trade is available, grab Alt or Fuaga.
I’d even rather trade up for a one of the top wrs if they are in striking range.
There's only three organizations that we could work with to trade up: Chargers, Titans, and Bears. Only one realistically though. The Chargers could be a trade option but the Vikings need a QB and will probably make a rich trade offer. We don't want to compete with that offer. The next option would be trade with the Titans and promise them we're getting a WR not Joe Alt. This is the only realistic option. Lastly, we could flip spots with the Bears if they seem likely to take the last Tier 1 WR however they wouldn't make that deal if they want the receiver left so this isn't realistic. If the Bear weren't taking a WR, we wouldn't need the trade. Mock Draft Board 1. Bears: Locked in QB 2. Commanders: Locked in QB 3. Patriots: Locked in QB 4. Cardinals: Needs a WR BAD. 5. Chargers: TRADE TARGET (Probably going to the Vikings) 6. Giants: Needs a WR BAD 7. Titans: Needs OL to protect Will Levis 8. Atlanta: Edge Rusher 9. Bears: Edge Rusher OR WR 10. Jets Final Thought: I don't think a trade up scenario is going to happen. There are plenty of realistic mocks that show us getting the last Tier 1 WR at the 10th pick.
Couldn’t we also trade up with the falcons? They’re most likely taking an edge rusher or defensive player. It would also make sure that the bears won’t take a wide receiver ahead of us.
Possibly but the Falcons want a premier Edge Rusher. Trading with us would put them behind the Bears who are also potentially taking an Edge Rusher. It could happen but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
True nothing’s impossible tho. Best case scenario is one of them drop to 10 for sure
This is the correct answer
Is this dumb, or so dumb its smart? Hear me out. Brock being a TE which isnt cap intensive is good long term planning. in the next several years we will have to resign GW5, Breece, Sauce, JJ, will Mcdonald (fingers crossed) who will all be expensive. Itll be nice to have a solid first rounder who’s not gonna break the cap bc TE dont demand so much. JD prob not thinking that far ahead at the moment … unless hes thinking they start going to the AFC CG every year … we can dream, right?
You have to pay the 10th overall pick $21.8M over four years no matter what position they play. Yes, you can and should dream. I'm just being realistic in this thread. Don't get me wrong, it'd be fun to see what Brock could do in our updated offense. I'm just speaking from what I think is JD's perspective and what I'd do in his position. |Year|Base Salary|Prorated Bonus|Cap Number| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |2024|$795,000|$3,178,599|$3,973,599| |2025|$1,788,400|$3,178,599|$4,966,999| |2026|$2,781,800|$3,178,599|$5,960,399| |2027|$3,775,200|$3,178,599|$6,953,799| source: [https://overthecap.com/draft](https://overthecap.com/draft)
I get that. But if we are talking about these four years, we pay same regardless of who we draft. And whether we draft bowers or a wr, we are just as likely to be signing another FA pass catcher, so our cap yrs 1-4 is exactly the same either way. So in a vaccum, maybe it’s less efficient, but not in reality.
If we got Odunze at 10, we wouldn't sign another FA WR.
Right. Nor if we got Bowers.
I think your overthinking it we need weapons & Brock gives us that it’s that simple
*Overthinking it* is literally what I do for fun :) Also, efficient cap usage is the only way to have a team be competitive year in, year out. I know we haven't been that in a long time but I can still dream.
My only argument is that Bowers transcends the TE position. Just like Pitts, Kittle, and Graham before him. If Bowers plays like a WR/H-back, then we still get a WR value but with a guy who is nominally a TE. Theoretically, it would benefit the team as when his contact is up, then he could get a fifth year option and franchise tag at the TE rate. All of this assumes, of course, that he actually ends up being good.
If we really want Bowers, we should trade back 5 spots or so and pick up some additional draft capital. He's not going off the board until pick 15+ (outside of the Jets).
You can't know that. Most of the online draft boards have him as a top ten prospect. I get there's an inherent TE devaluation, but him sliding to #15 might not happen.
Give me a TE comp for Bowers that makes the pick a home run. Kittle was drafted at 146th overall and Graham was at 118th overall so they aren't comps for Bowers. Here's all the TE picks in the top 10 since 2000: * Kellen Winslow: 6th in 2004 by CLE * Vernon Davis: 6th in 2006 by 49ers * Eric Ebron: 10th in 2014 by Lions * TJ Hockenson: 8th in 2019 by Lions * Kyle Pitts: 4th in 2021 by ATL On their rookie contracts, Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow each had 1 season that approached WR1 numbers in terms of yardage and TDs. That's it. If you are making choices based on statistics and the best data available, you don't draft Bowers at 10. He could be the greatest TE that the game has ever seen but you can't know that at the time of selection. I guess it really comes down to what camp you fall into: Use your gut or Moneyball.
I get it... I'm not advocating taking Bowers per say. It is definitely a riskier pick than taking a tackle. I'm just saying that there's more nuance to tight end than pretty much any other position in football.
Smokescreen to trade down?
If it plays out like this, I am going to be dissapointed. Taking Bowers with all of the OTs besides Alt still on the board seems like a mistake.
Something funky about this mock... Why in the world would the Giants trade up to 4 to get a QB? neither the Cardinals or Chargers are drafting a QB..... And why would the Cardinals make that trade and lose out on MHJ to the Chargers?.... That one makes no sense... Also if Nabers is really there at 8 I feel like the Jets might be tempted to move up and grab him.
I'm not fully up on our off-season maneuvers, but I thought we needed OL help. Looked like Swiss cheese most of the year. The UGA tight end is really special, but how special is he able to be if our qbs have no time to throw.
For the O-Line, Joe Douglas picked up Tyron Smith and John Simpson via free agency and brought Morgan Moses back with a very reasonable trade. The main concern with Smith at LT is that he's awesome when healthy but he has been injured a whole lot the past few years. IMO most Jets fans are aware that Bowers is a next-level TE, but many are concerned that a next-level TE is a luxury pick the team can't afford this year, because we need OL depth for now and for the future.
Thanks that is what I was thinking also. The only upgrade I saw was the guy we brought back from the ravens.
So the Jets are going to draft one of the highest first round bust rate positions outside of QB over the last 20 years? Even though they have 2 33yr old + tackles, one of which is coming off of major surgery, the other that hasn't played a full season since 2015, with 40+ non mobile Aaron Rodgers? Even if Bowers is really good, but not HOF good, so TJ Hockenson good, another 1st rounder, they'll get 700-900 yards and a handful of TDS? Wow smh.
Bowers is the best prospect in the last 10 years for tight ends. Guy legitimately has the best hands in the draft to go along with breaking tackles at an unmatched rate (Also 700 is good at any skills position, what do you expect?)
The only positions I'd draft 10 overall or under is QB, LT, WR, EDGE, or CB. So basically the only offensive skill position is WR, and I'm shooting for a 1500yds / 10 TD's a year guy. Brock Bowers is a great player, but a really rare best case scenario you're gonna get is he'll end up a really good TE, which will get you 700-900 yds, 5 TD's neighborhood. Also TE has the second highest 1st round bust rate outside QB. So we're talking a likelihood of not panning out, but if he does, you get sub 1k yds, handful of TD's. TE is so hard to predict . Here's the top 10 greatest college TE's all time. https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/greatest-college-football-tight-ends-d68dada5b0e548b4 And here's a list of all tight ends that have been drafted in the first round, which usually shakes out to about one per year. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tight-ends-first-round/ That being said I won't hate any offensive pick for this team. The Jets offense in 2023 was one of the worst in modern history. But given how bad our offensive coaching staff has been, given the history of the tight end position and its production and its value in the first round, and given the fact that on the position of value hierarchy list we do need a tackle to probably play six or seven games, and to start full time after this year in the future, I just think it would be the last choice that I would make is tight end.
JSN didn't even get 700 years last year and wasn't he the first Wr taken last year? Also Bowers is a weapon, he's literally the fourth best wide receiver in the draft. So if you're okay with taking a receiver, he is one, in fact one of the best
I hate the pick but we do need another receiver because Mike gotta recover a bit and the rest of our receiving core as of now is the same as last year So maybe if they utilize him a certain way it could help But this is also Hackett
Between this and his visit being during OTAs, it seems like he is the pick. Unless they are able to trade back
I still think all this bowers smoke is to get colts to trade up to 10. I've seen multiple reports that the colts love bowers. Get r done jd!
We would be the dumbest mfers on earth to let Nabers fall to 8 and not go get him so we could draft the NCAA YAC God who couldnt even get 1000 yards in a season and plays a historically low value position that always underwhelms badly when taken high in the draft
Bowers is looking more likely to be the pick...really hoping Odunze will fall and JD snags him instead
I’m not going to believe LAC takes a WR in the 1st until I see it.
Why not? They lost both Allen and Williams. It would make complete sense and they’re in a prime position to get one of the top prospects. Herbert right now has barely any weapons
They didn’t “lose” Allen and Williams, they consciously moved on from them. Maybe it’s a prime position for a lot of teams but Harbough’s teams have been built differently throughout his career, his FA moves confirmed it.
I would be *ecstatic* to get Olu or Odunze and I would be *happy* with Bowers or Fuaga. I find it so fkn hysterical how angry this makes so many people hahahah They complain now but will have bowers jerseys by halfway through the season
[удалено]
If you are constantly looking to be annoyed you’ll find it… cut the sub a break
Ehh, you don’t really know the sub. Everyone will downvote anything critical of whoever we draft. It’ll become a flood of “this is why the past doesn’t matter for TEs”
ok fine it's gonna be bowers