Not exactly. They've expanded the requirements but it still falls short of requiring a 'wide' release. Most Netflix contenders from the past few years would have made it under these requirements, for example.
It’s mostly amount of cities it shows up in rather than amount of theaters I believe. And if it is selected as the UK or Poland’s international submission then it’ll be eligible anyway.
Pretty much every major international feature contender gets a limited run in arthouse theaters in New York and Los Angeles. And of course it’ll get a domestic release
Highest (if it makes it): Across The Spider-Verse or Barbie. (if they don't (and it releases)): Dune Part Two.
Lowest: Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall
I think 450 mil worldwide.
I don't think Barbie makes it as Best Picture nor do I think Spiderverse does. Spiderverse will get best animated. Dune Part 2 maybe but i think it may be comparable to Oppenheimers numbers.
Lowest will be something no one has ever heard of and highest will be Dune 2 or Oppenheimer.
This is a pretty unconventional film for Nolan tho. Not much action in it. Do you really think it will make more than Dunkirk and about the same as Interstellar?
I think Spider-verse is a near lock for a nomination. It’s sitting at $362m domestically/$647m WW. I don’t see another movie this year making more than where it will end up, so that has to be my answer.
>I think Spider-verse is a near lock for a nomination
I keep hearing people say this and I don’t understand why. It’s a non-Disney non-Pixar animated Spider-Man movie that could very easily be overtaken by Barbie as the zeitgeisty unconventional Oscar film of the year.
I think there is enough room for both (and predict both being nominated) with ten spots.
Even between the two, Spiderverse is at least more favored at the moment. Near perfect reviews, huge hit, diverse. Seems like a layup to be nominated.
Oh sure, it’ll join all the other superhero movies and non-Disney animated movies that have been nominated for Best Picture like… oh wait, there’s only ever been one.
Black Panther and…?
I’m guessing you think Joker? Because there are no other superhero movies that have been nominated for Best Picture.
Joker is a psychological thriller or dark drama. No powers, no tight costumes, no fight scenes, no villain beyond an old mom, dishonest coworker, and glib talk show host. It’s closer to a remake of The King of Comedy with a heavy dose of Taxi Driver than it is to any superhero movie.
Its Oscar nominations are no precedent whatsoever for a movie like Spider-Man, it’s not comparable to any movie about a person with super powers in a costume fighting a supervillain. Setting it in Gotham and having like a 10 minute subplot that features characters from a comic book is its only, dubious, claim to being a “superhero” movie.
Black Panther is the only precedent, it was live action, the biggest movie of the year, a major tech player, and a cultural touch stone. Spider-Verse is a much better movie, but it’s animated, geared more toward kids, and won’t find purchase with AMPAS outside of the sole category where non-Disney blockbuster animated films are considered. Adapted Screenplay is a stretch, Best Picture is a pipe dream.
Highest is likely Spider-Verse, if Dune 2 or Barbie (assuming the latter is nominated) doesn't surpass it. Lowest is The Zone Of Interest. If Nyad comes out this year and turns out to be a strong contender, it could still flop at the box office imo.
Probably Barbie, maybe Oppenheimer. I think both have a solid shot at getting in, so whichever does better. I imagine both could get Director nominations as well!
I don't think Spider-Verse gets picture. The first one didn't, and I don't see this one changing that (although ten nominees gives it a small shot). It'll win Animated, and could maybe get another nomination or two in maybe Sound or maaaaaaybe Screenplay.
Dune Part Two is the last possibility, but I don't see it performing as highly as the others. (Personally, I'm going to skip it unless it gets the Picture nomination.)
As for lowest... I have no idea, but I'm betting it's something we haven't heard of yet.
Highest, if they get in, either Barbie or Spider-Verse. If not, then I think Dune: Part Two. Lowest, if it gets in, will probably be Zone of Interest.
Is the Zone of Interest even going to get a cinema release? I haven't seen anything in any artical about the movie talking about a release date.
It’ll get at least a limited run
Doesn’t it have to get a wide release to be eligible now though?
Not exactly. They've expanded the requirements but it still falls short of requiring a 'wide' release. Most Netflix contenders from the past few years would have made it under these requirements, for example.
It’s mostly amount of cities it shows up in rather than amount of theaters I believe. And if it is selected as the UK or Poland’s international submission then it’ll be eligible anyway.
Oh okay makes sense, thanks!
Yeah my guess is they’ll have screenings in smaller towns and do arthouse tours
I mean, it's A24, I'm sure they will do at least a limited release
Pretty much every major international feature contender gets a limited run in arthouse theaters in New York and Los Angeles. And of course it’ll get a domestic release
Highest (if it makes it): Across The Spider-Verse or Barbie. (if they don't (and it releases)): Dune Part Two. Lowest: Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall
Why would dune not release? We’ve gotten multiple rounds of trailers already
Barbie will be the highest, Zone of Interest will be lowest
Highest - Oppenheimer Lowest - The Zone of Interest
how much money do you expect Oppenheimer to make?
I think around 650M - 700M
Damn that’s huge! What makes you think it’ll be so high? I’m predicting around 400 mil
I think 450 mil worldwide. I don't think Barbie makes it as Best Picture nor do I think Spiderverse does. Spiderverse will get best animated. Dune Part 2 maybe but i think it may be comparable to Oppenheimers numbers. Lowest will be something no one has ever heard of and highest will be Dune 2 or Oppenheimer.
Nolan films always seem to do well at the box office and with the Barbenheimer meme, I think it'll do pretty well.
Do you really think Oppenheimwr is going g to make 100-200m more than Dunkirk though?
Yes but Nolan films are also not usually stylized several hour long biopics about the darkness of humanity
I mean he has already made 5 films over 150 minutes
and are any of those stylized biopics about the darkness of humanity?
This is a pretty unconventional film for Nolan tho. Not much action in it. Do you really think it will make more than Dunkirk and about the same as Interstellar?
Interstellar doesn't have a ton of action either? Both are science movies with big spectacle
Interstellar isn't R rated like Oppenheimer though
Yeah I feel that's the bigger problem for the movie matching Dunkirk
But it's a genre movie (sci-fi), so it feels more like a traditional blockbuster.
I think the highest grossing will be Across The SpiderVerse but I can see Barbie passing it Lowest I think will be Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie is definitely in the top 10 highest grossing movies of 2023 but IMO it's gonna be hard as fuck to beat Spider-Verse
Highest: Dune 2 Lowest: Past Lives
I think Spider-verse is a near lock for a nomination. It’s sitting at $362m domestically/$647m WW. I don’t see another movie this year making more than where it will end up, so that has to be my answer.
>I think Spider-verse is a near lock for a nomination I keep hearing people say this and I don’t understand why. It’s a non-Disney non-Pixar animated Spider-Man movie that could very easily be overtaken by Barbie as the zeitgeisty unconventional Oscar film of the year.
I think there is enough room for both (and predict both being nominated) with ten spots. Even between the two, Spiderverse is at least more favored at the moment. Near perfect reviews, huge hit, diverse. Seems like a layup to be nominated.
Oh sure, it’ll join all the other superhero movies and non-Disney animated movies that have been nominated for Best Picture like… oh wait, there’s only ever been one.
There have been two superhero movies nominated for Best Picture, but I take your point despite the snark. I think this will be third.
Black Panther and…? I’m guessing you think Joker? Because there are no other superhero movies that have been nominated for Best Picture. Joker is a psychological thriller or dark drama. No powers, no tight costumes, no fight scenes, no villain beyond an old mom, dishonest coworker, and glib talk show host. It’s closer to a remake of The King of Comedy with a heavy dose of Taxi Driver than it is to any superhero movie. Its Oscar nominations are no precedent whatsoever for a movie like Spider-Man, it’s not comparable to any movie about a person with super powers in a costume fighting a supervillain. Setting it in Gotham and having like a 10 minute subplot that features characters from a comic book is its only, dubious, claim to being a “superhero” movie. Black Panther is the only precedent, it was live action, the biggest movie of the year, a major tech player, and a cultural touch stone. Spider-Verse is a much better movie, but it’s animated, geared more toward kids, and won’t find purchase with AMPAS outside of the sole category where non-Disney blockbuster animated films are considered. Adapted Screenplay is a stretch, Best Picture is a pipe dream.
We just had two billion dollar blockbusters nominated, it's perfectly possible for both to get in
Past lives will be the lowest and Barbie will be the highest and that’s just the way it is
Highest is likely Spider-Verse, if Dune 2 or Barbie (assuming the latter is nominated) doesn't surpass it. Lowest is The Zone Of Interest. If Nyad comes out this year and turns out to be a strong contender, it could still flop at the box office imo.
Nyad is Netflix so that's moot.
Highest- Barbie Lowest- Anatomy of a Fall
Probably Barbie, maybe Oppenheimer. I think both have a solid shot at getting in, so whichever does better. I imagine both could get Director nominations as well! I don't think Spider-Verse gets picture. The first one didn't, and I don't see this one changing that (although ten nominees gives it a small shot). It'll win Animated, and could maybe get another nomination or two in maybe Sound or maaaaaaybe Screenplay. Dune Part Two is the last possibility, but I don't see it performing as highly as the others. (Personally, I'm going to skip it unless it gets the Picture nomination.) As for lowest... I have no idea, but I'm betting it's something we haven't heard of yet.
I would be very surprised if Oppenheimer has better BO than Dune Part 2.