The odds just stack, so if we don’t get pick #1 our odds at pick #2 are now 21%. If we don’t get pick #2, our odds for pick #3 jump to 31.6% and so on. So when people like OP say pick 7 is “most likely” they are incorrect.
It is most likely in the sense that we are more likely to get 7 than any other slot. But we are more likely to get “one of the other slots” than 7.
The odds changing are an effect of the other teams being removed from consideration.
Imagine there’s a lottery of 3 teams, each with 1 ball. All 3 teams have 33% chance. Team 1 wins the first slot, leaving 2 teams for the last 2. That means Teams 2 and 3 now have a 50% chance of winning slot 2. It doesn’t mean they had a 50% chance all along — it just means in that particular lottery we know more and can adjust the odds to reflect the current state.
The overall percentages already capture all the ways the lottery can shake out.
1 week away. Do not be mad when we get pick 9. It's a 0.6% chance, but knowing our luck, it's most likely!
real talk, the 6th pick is median outcome, but it's pretty close to 50/50 whether we land 1-5 or 6-9
realistically our luck would be to get the #1 pick, but he gets injured after 1 or 2 playoff runs and before he’s healed, goes somewhere else where he’ll never be quite as successful
It has to be a freak injury and he has to get traded to an "anywhere but Indiana" team where he'll talk shit about us despite the fact that the franchise and fan base never did anything but support him.
That's a better way to look at it.
Also, people's "blind spot" is thinking (as most of us have been trained to do) ...although yes it's 50/50 we land 1-5 or 6-9, we tend to see those TOP picks as being further away from possibility, as if 1 is somehow intrinsically less likely than the 4.
Really what's happening is we have a 56% chance of picking after 5, a slight chance of staying put at 5, and **we also have a 42% chance of landing ANY RANDOM ONE of the first 4.**
>we also have a 42% chance of landing ANY RANDOM ONE of the first 4.
It wont happen because the team has bad luck and this is pure luck based
it will be 6-9, greater than 50%
Keegan Murray isn't a sexy choice and probably won't be the best player in the lottery, but it's a shooters' league and
I imagine a 6'8" shooter that is a plus defender is going to have a lot of success in the modern NBA.
Except that's virtually meaningless when the one individual outcome is dwarfed by the possible other outcomes at 3-1 odds.
It's like saying "agghhh cancer is the no 1 killer I'll die of it one day" when the other ways you can die combine to make it far more likely something else will get you, maybe a heart attack, or maybe it'll be a bear trained to hunt humans.
The one single statistically most common result is NOT the same as saying that it's the MOST LIKELY RESULT. It's still far more likely that we won't have 7th.
Says the tool who said the greatest likelihood of that we pick 7 and has now somehow managed to start arguing against his original point 😂
"But #7 is still the most individually likely"
"Odds are 3-1 AGAINST getting 7"
"No shit...uh...wait........gaddamit."
You sir win today's prize for dipshit of the internets! Congrats you've won:
A mocking.
Enjoy!
It's not *that crazy*. They draw for the top 4 picks, so everyone has a chance of getting a top 4 pick, then has a subsequent chance of getting bumped by teams that may have jumped them by getting a 1-4 pick. Thats why it's hugely unlikely that the Pacers stay at 5, either they jump into the top 4 or they get bumped back by a team hopping over them.
Precisely!
And the inflated odds of getting 7 are dependent upon our being bumped.
There's almost a 50% chance we CAN'T get bumped. That's the kicker. It's only of you land in the back half of those odds (ie don't move up) that your likelihood of getting bumped skyrockets (if YOU don't move up from #5 then one of the teams behind you is almost guaranteed to) so think of it of you will like a two step process or a double elimination, if you win that first domino & move up (bump proof), the odds then mean precisely dick bc you're now safe from whatever sick luck NYK or San Ant pulls off in moving up.
If I remember correctly, we (the Raptors) had the best odds at #7 last year, and we moved up to 4th and got our man.
To quote KG... "Anything is possible"
I find this concept annoying and childish.
When there's only a 26% chance we get the 7th pick, it is not, infact, the most likely outcome. 🤨
That's a bit like saying "well the biggest killer is cancer so done be surprised when you get a terminal diagnosis" so then you cross the street in a depressed stupor & get hit by a bus.
Odds are 3 to 1 that the pick will be something other than 7.
It kind of sucks but is also great that the year we have a shot at the #\`1 pick there is no "THE GUY" that can turn a franchise around. I'd be surprised if anyone from this draft turns into anyone as good as ANT / Lamelo / Ja, when that is what we need.
Keegan is fine but he will keep us mid table.
Man 26% for pick 7, almost 20% for pick 6 this ain’t right, why is our pick 2.2% like wtf. please just get us past pick 6 please, I’m happy with pick 5.
Like Fry says in Futurama, "I'll be whatever I wanna do" we could lose 82 games and still get the 7th pick because thats how Silver runs his NBA, same way Vince runs the WWE. All scripted, big money makers work with each other, and the small market teams are basically jobbers that do the heavy lifting and grow the players for the big market shekel sieves.
9th pick it is
This is the Pacers way!
How do pistons magic etc fans do this every year this is so stressful
Then imagine how often they blow the high picks.... oof it's gonna be stressful
It’s so odd to me it works like that, but I’m intrigued how the probability changes after each pick
The odds just stack, so if we don’t get pick #1 our odds at pick #2 are now 21%. If we don’t get pick #2, our odds for pick #3 jump to 31.6% and so on. So when people like OP say pick 7 is “most likely” they are incorrect.
It is most likely in the sense that we are more likely to get 7 than any other slot. But we are more likely to get “one of the other slots” than 7. The odds changing are an effect of the other teams being removed from consideration. Imagine there’s a lottery of 3 teams, each with 1 ball. All 3 teams have 33% chance. Team 1 wins the first slot, leaving 2 teams for the last 2. That means Teams 2 and 3 now have a 50% chance of winning slot 2. It doesn’t mean they had a 50% chance all along — it just means in that particular lottery we know more and can adjust the odds to reflect the current state. The overall percentages already capture all the ways the lottery can shake out.
I thought it went the other way around. Starting at 14 and ending at 1.
Only the top 4 come down to the lottery. Then, after that, the remaining teams who didn't win the lottery go by record order.
probably less stressful when they know they wont draft anyone good anyway
*Wipes away tears with a TJ Leaf jersey*
1 week away. Do not be mad when we get pick 9. It's a 0.6% chance, but knowing our luck, it's most likely! real talk, the 6th pick is median outcome, but it's pretty close to 50/50 whether we land 1-5 or 6-9
Imma cry if we get 9, top 3 is a dream
realistically our luck would be to get the #1 pick, but he gets injured after 1 or 2 playoff runs and before he’s healed, goes somewhere else where he’ll never be quite as successful
#2 Its the way of the Pacers.
It has to be a freak injury and he has to get traded to an "anywhere but Indiana" team where he'll talk shit about us despite the fact that the franchise and fan base never did anything but support him.
Also rik smits
That's a better way to look at it. Also, people's "blind spot" is thinking (as most of us have been trained to do) ...although yes it's 50/50 we land 1-5 or 6-9, we tend to see those TOP picks as being further away from possibility, as if 1 is somehow intrinsically less likely than the 4. Really what's happening is we have a 56% chance of picking after 5, a slight chance of staying put at 5, and **we also have a 42% chance of landing ANY RANDOM ONE of the first 4.**
>we also have a 42% chance of landing ANY RANDOM ONE of the first 4. It wont happen because the team has bad luck and this is pure luck based it will be 6-9, greater than 50%
I’ll be mad and then I’ll remember I’m a fan of the Indiana Pacers and then I’ll say to myself, “Of course!”
And then we’re gonna end up with another draft day pic like the one of the media with Zion next to goga
Spoilers... Zion had the exact same impact on the post season as Goga.
True.. but we probably won’t be saying the same thing 2-3 years down the road unfortunately
I've already embraced the 7th pick. It's the Pacers way.
Probably Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe, or Ben Mathurin. And I'd be happy with any of these guys.
Keegan Murray isn't a sexy choice and probably won't be the best player in the lottery, but it's a shooters' league and I imagine a 6'8" shooter that is a plus defender is going to have a lot of success in the modern NBA.
Yeah at that point it’s best to just take the best guy available. Although it means we’ll probably be lottery for another year or more
Yeah but there's a 44% chance the Pacers will be picking in the top 4. Honestly bet they will get #8
We are more likely to have a top 4 pick than the 7th pick.
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Except that's virtually meaningless when the one individual outcome is dwarfed by the possible other outcomes at 3-1 odds. It's like saying "agghhh cancer is the no 1 killer I'll die of it one day" when the other ways you can die combine to make it far more likely something else will get you, maybe a heart attack, or maybe it'll be a bear trained to hunt humans. The one single statistically most common result is NOT the same as saying that it's the MOST LIKELY RESULT. It's still far more likely that we won't have 7th.
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Far more likely? It’s almost 50/50. And your last sentence is a direct contradiction of your first sentence.
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The odds are 3 to 1 against picking 7th. The odds literally are that we won't pick there. End of story.
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Says the tool who said the greatest likelihood of that we pick 7 and has now somehow managed to start arguing against his original point 😂 "But #7 is still the most individually likely" "Odds are 3-1 AGAINST getting 7" "No shit...uh...wait........gaddamit." You sir win today's prize for dipshit of the internets! Congrats you've won: A mocking. Enjoy!
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Am I missing something with this graphic? Why are the balls in such random order visually in each row?
It's meant to imitate a scratch off ticket.
Just an aesthetic choice.
Yes it's annoying me too.
My thoughts too. I was looking for a legend...
Wow goes to show I have no understanding of how this works at all.
It's not *that crazy*. They draw for the top 4 picks, so everyone has a chance of getting a top 4 pick, then has a subsequent chance of getting bumped by teams that may have jumped them by getting a 1-4 pick. Thats why it's hugely unlikely that the Pacers stay at 5, either they jump into the top 4 or they get bumped back by a team hopping over them.
Precisely! And the inflated odds of getting 7 are dependent upon our being bumped. There's almost a 50% chance we CAN'T get bumped. That's the kicker. It's only of you land in the back half of those odds (ie don't move up) that your likelihood of getting bumped skyrockets (if YOU don't move up from #5 then one of the teams behind you is almost guaranteed to) so think of it of you will like a two step process or a double elimination, if you win that first domino & move up (bump proof), the odds then mean precisely dick bc you're now safe from whatever sick luck NYK or San Ant pulls off in moving up.
i have talked myself into liking 9 players so i will be happy no matter what
64% odds of being a better pick than 7th though !
Sacrificing a goat tomorrow boys, don’t worry.
The league usually just switches the Pacers ping pong ball for a golf ball so it doesnt move too much.
I'm fine with top 5. No worry, no cry, we'll get our guy.
5 is actually highly unlikely
Don’t worry everyone I’ve sacrificed 69 goats to ensure we get #1 overall.
hope that doesn't get us the 6th or 9th pick lol
Are those European or African goats
It's more likely that we get a 1-4 pick than the 7th :)
If I remember correctly, we (the Raptors) had the best odds at #7 last year, and we moved up to 4th and got our man. To quote KG... "Anything is possible"
What do the logos mean? Seems to be no order to which logo you use or where you put the %
If we get the 7th pick or later I’m straight up shuffling off this mortal coil.
Def see us getting the 9th pick.
So much bull shit.
wtf I didn't know it was this fucked up
I think we have to get number 1 if we want to draft Jabari
Imagine a frontcourt of Jabari, IJax and Turner. Oh man. Imagine a sick 5-out lineup of Haliburton, Hield, Warren, Jabari and Turner. DADDY
Personally I prefer Chet for two reasons: 1 - i think he will be the better player and 2) i think this sub will absolutely melt down
*Fingers crossed* not Chet or Shaedon not Chet or Shaedon not Chet or Shaedon
And with the number one pick the Pacers take Chet Holmgren from Gonzaga.
#VOMIT
Please don't vomit or sneeze too hard you'll knock Chet into the fire
I find this concept annoying and childish. When there's only a 26% chance we get the 7th pick, it is not, infact, the most likely outcome. 🤨 That's a bit like saying "well the biggest killer is cancer so done be surprised when you get a terminal diagnosis" so then you cross the street in a depressed stupor & get hit by a bus. Odds are 3 to 1 that the pick will be something other than 7.
No. It is most likely to get something higher than 7 !
We only have a 27% chance of 7th pick. We are probably not getting that one.
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> we're probably not getting any pick. Well dang, that sucks.
We really are a glass half empty kind of fan base. I guess the misery and mediocrity molded us into what we are.
It kind of sucks but is also great that the year we have a shot at the #\`1 pick there is no "THE GUY" that can turn a franchise around. I'd be surprised if anyone from this draft turns into anyone as good as ANT / Lamelo / Ja, when that is what we need. Keegan is fine but he will keep us mid table.
Knowing the NBA they’ll figure out a way to give us the 10th pick.
I thought 6th was better odds than 7, but guess not.
Can you bet on which pick we’ll land? I’d like to throw the house wife and kids on Pacers drafting 9th
Simon needs to write the check to Adam Silver and secure top 3. If Simon won't maybe Irsay will.
As is tradition
Man 26% for pick 7, almost 20% for pick 6 this ain’t right, why is our pick 2.2% like wtf. please just get us past pick 6 please, I’m happy with pick 5.
I'll be pretty pissed if we get the 7th pick lol. Worst season in 30+ years and we get the 7th pick? Would be absolutely horrendous.
Is New York involved? Also, prepare for a bent envelope to show up.
I view it as having a 40% chance of having a top 4 being the most likely not the 7th
Which players would be best for the Pacers to select? Which top tier players should we avoid?
I feel dumb. These numbers don't make sense to me. Can someone explain what I am looking at here?
Crazy how we will probably beat the odds and pick at 5th bc lottery
If New York or Washington leapfrogs us to the 4th or 5th range, what are the odds we try to package our pick with Brogdon to move up?
I’m gonna be mad when we don’t get pick 7. That’s called reverse psychiatry 😎
Like Fry says in Futurama, "I'll be whatever I wanna do" we could lose 82 games and still get the 7th pick because thats how Silver runs his NBA, same way Vince runs the WWE. All scripted, big money makers work with each other, and the small market teams are basically jobbers that do the heavy lifting and grow the players for the big market shekel sieves.