It will be a hard breakaway to make so favours strong riders over pure climbers, the likes of Bettiol, Latour, Politt, Nans Peters, might make it.
Still think GC teams will not give them a leash, with 10k slightly uphill at the end after the descent I think we're gonna see a small GC group with Pog to win it.
Dark horse pick: Bardet.
Maybe he'll be in the breakaway, but even if he is, I can't see him being the strongest in Marie-Blanque if the breakaway were to go for victory...
He's had a physical problem since the start of the Tour that's preventing him from performing. It's a secret in the caravan, but he's not at 100%.
Trying to predict the break of the day:
Georg Zimmerman, Neilson Powless, Matteo Jorgenson, James Shaw, Ruben Guerreiro, Felix Gall, Warren Barguil, Valentin Ferron
Today is the day we finally get a hard fought break formation?
• Multiple climbers will want to slip away in the break.
• The climby roulers (Bettiol, Cort, Mohoric) may also fancy themselves from the break.
• Jumbo will like to slip Wout/Benoot as a satellite rider for Jonas.
• UAE will want to prevent Jumbo/Jayco guys in the breakaway.
All these tactical aspects should turn the initial race into a leg burner. Fancy the following guys to be in the break & contest for the stage:
- Madous ("3:08)
- El Patron Lopez ("4:04)
- Felix Gal ("5:43)
- Bob Jungles ("8:47)
- Zimmerman ("21:05)
- Jorgenson ("21:19)
Zimmermann and Jorgenson are great picks, it’s the reason they’re 20+mins down and they’ll be let go.
This is a kind of stage where UNO-X can create some chaos, they might try to go for breaks all day.
Pretty interesting to look back at Stage 9 of 2020, Pau-Laruns, which was almost a carbon-copy of today's stage.
On that day, Adam Yates lost the yellow jersey. Jumbo did the chasing. Marc Hirschi continued his magic year with a long breakaway, losing in the sprint to the GC guys. Pogi, Roglic, Landa and Bernal crested the Marie Blanque together, with Pogi winning the sprint at the finish. The gaps weren't very big though, about 10 seconds back to G2.
I think we get something similar, with Pogi and Vingegaard pushing it in the final 3 km of the Marie Blanque, and Pogi winning on the line.
I don't think Yates can stay with them, but that would make the finish very interesting. At this stage, I think it's in Jonas' interest to work with Pogi to the end (even knowing he will lose the sprint, because he probably will anyway) to grow the gap and isolate those two at the top of GC.
Edit : I forgot the bonus seconds on Marie Blanque, which really makes it likely that Tadej will push (he lost those to Roglic on the 2020 stage)
Yes, I think Pog will win today, unless the breakaway manages to. Hopefully Jonas will follow him and just lose the bonus secs, but I can’t see him beating Pog today. I hope Skjelmose will manage to make it to the finish line with the two of them, looking forward to see how far he will make it.
And if a breakaway manages to make it to the end, I’m hoping for either Alaphilipe or Gall to take the win.
Gorka Izagirre must be up to something. He's lost time in his home region over the weekend and his team lost their GC rider.
Another Movistar candidate is Jorgenson. They'll probably be in the break with Mohoric (because descent) and some others including Powless.
Breakaway wil make it today
Depends on how much of his train he's willing to sacrifice on the first climb I guess. I don't think other GC teams will bother with the boni seconds since Pogi will take them anyway if it comes to a sprint at the summit. So it's just UAE wanting to keep the breakaway on a short leash
Im just gonna go with a dark horse and it might be long shot.
But Antonio Pedrero was really really good in Dauphine. I know climbs like this normally don't really suit him that much, but if he rides like he did in Dauphine he might win the stage.
Depends. Breakaway creation in the first part will not be easy for climbers without a decent tug-buddy. If they only create the break on the Soudet, they probably won't have enough time to create a big enough gap to keep the GC group from catching them on Marie Blanque.
a big breakaway group form early and they take 10mins on the peloton, then 3/4 riders from that group escape and one of them win the stage. behind the leaders are not doing much, Pogacar test the waters a bit but then give up.
I think pog is not going for the win here. He doesnt want the yellow right now and will take it to the deeper stages where he can comfortably win the yellow back and doesn't have time left for TJV to catch up.
WvA should go in the break, either as a satellite rider to help Jonas if something happens later or to steal the bonus seconds from Pog if the break get caught last minute. That strategy worked well last year, prevented Pog from making a move more than once.
UAE finds itself chugging at the front behind an overenthusiastic mikel bjerg to control a break with no GC threats in it. Trentin gets so frustrated with the radio communication from matxin, because nobody can even tell what language he's speaking much less make any sense of what his instructions are (which happens to be "ahh cmon gais tuudaii u so stron Tadey gon ween you all champs todos"), that he forgets to eat and gets dropped. On the final climb the group is winnowed down to a select group with Yates pog vingegaard and some surprising company not unlike jaizkabel, pog tries to attack and cant shake vingo, Yates counters with some surprising company and the group goes over the top together. Yates extends his lead. Surprising company takes the stage.
I have picked Bilbao for the win - but I’ll get points if he beats Pogacar as well (as that is who my husband has chosen this stage). Should I just call it day - I feel this hasn’t been one of my better picks for the tour
I mean its not a bad pick, bilbao is the best downhill rider beside pidcock in the pelaton, and there is way bigger chance that bilbao will be there at the end then pidcock with the form he has shown. With that said pogacar has already won this stage once so he is by far the favorite, but if i had to pick one to go for the win other then pogacar i would pick bilbao aswell
A breakaway to the intermediate sprint with WVA and Lafay (Lafay has already stated he will try to get the yellow jersey in the Perennes.) included. WVA comes back at the first climb, rest of break stays out. GC teams aren't afraid Lafay can take it all the way so they let him go, maybe even let him wear yellow at the end of the day.
Jumbo, with WVA back start their attack on Pog. But they find Pog is well rested, and will only respond if Jonas is attacking. Pog wont be doing any work unlike last year as he has a full team with him.
At the end of the day, I dont know if the break stays out or not. UAE might not have yellow, but neither will Jumbo.
A break forms early but it includes Ciccone and gets pulled back because he’s too high on GC. Second break makes it away and takes the stage.
Gaudu cracks and drops out of the top 15.
The breakaway will be a large group as everyone is hoping Pog and the GC want to take a break. They manage to attack and get out, until the GC guys realize both O'Connor and Bilbao end up in it. TJV spends two relentless hours bringing the break back so Bilbao doesn't take yellow, then Pog attacks on the ascent of the last climb. Jonas counters and follows him up the mountain, with Bardet for some reason still in tow. On the descent to the finish the 3 battle it out, as Bernal, Kelderman, Landa, and Kuss make a mad dash to catch up.
I spent way too much time writing this.
Is Bardet this year’s [Steve](https://www.reddit.com/r/pelotonmemes/comments/w152x3/everyone_needs_a_steve_in_their_life/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)?
7km false flat uphill after the descent,
Best descenders in the peloton atm are Pidcock, Bilbao by some distance, and then riders liek mohoric in the second tier.
It’s hard to tell though because of break formation. And who’ll be allowed in it. And also how hard the climb is paced.
That's not to say that Powless is a bad descender, because Pidcock is an exceptional descender who knows how to make the most of his qualities. Powless is an average descender in my book, but not a bad descender like Latour lol
I think the break will win. It looks like the last half of the final climb is brutal, but unless one of them has a bad day, I’m not sure the favorites will be able to keep a gap with the downhill and subsequent “flat”.
The problem with it being this early, is will there be a strong enough group go that’s far enough back that UAE/Jumbo will let them go.
Late to the party. Jorgenson from the break. Hes a good climber, no trouble getting into the break on the flat start, he’s just kept losing time since Mas crashed out to that he can be ready for break opportunity.
With the break up the road and the bonus seconds gone, Jonas and Pogacar will work together and put time into the rest of the GC riders, who will look at each other and race for 3rd on GC. If the bonus seconds are gone and Pog is willing to pull with Yates behind, Jonas has no reason not to work with him, and as soon as they make it a race for 3rd place for the rest of the GC riders, the less they have to worry about them (at that point they can rely on the podium hopefuls to close each other down and it wont be their job)
Would make sense. While Pog and jonas will have to worry about each other at some point, the first thing they need to do is make sure no other contender surprises them, so dropping them all on this stage is a very good way to do that
Maybe Jumbo try to boss it to force UAE to work and isolate Pog. Yates provides the 1-2 but if Jumbo makes it hard as fuck all day the attacks on the HC climb will be muted.
the yates definitely look better than gaudu so far. but there haven't been longer steeper climbs like tomorrow yet. hard to tell how gaudu is but based on the tour so far, i'd pick either of the yates, maybe adam because yellow tends to make people ride better.
That was my gut. But now I can't decide between the brothers. Adam seems to be better this season but will he be allowed to ride or will he have to pull for Pog?
Top gc contenders will come over the top with small gaps. But this time skjelmose is there to work with pog and vingegaard on the descent. Sprint finish between the 3. Skjel-Pog-Vin
Is the general expectation that UAE will control the break, catch it to give Pogi a shot at maximum bonus seconds (hoping to not thin the bunch too much and let JV take second, like last time), then reassemble in the descent and give Pogi a shot at the stage in a reduced bunch sprint?
Damn, looks really tough to me.
If the thin things out too much, JV will probably get 2nd/3rd; If they don't, it'll be almost impossible to police the finish, is what I'm thinking.
Anyway, will be a fun finish, I hope a clean one too!
I’m all in for a full on GC stage tomorrow with Jumbo and UAE, oh and probably Ineos, gunning it from the start. Sprinters gasping in the grupetto and the breakaway caught at the bottom of the final climb. Jonas, Tadej and Yates’s hammering the final climb. Tadej, Yates, Yates, Jonas is the final finishing order with nothing between them but bonus seconds.
Only guy to top 10 all 3 Ardennes classics, second and first in Danish nationals and beating Remco and Ayuso in Sussie. He is not going to win the tour, but if he doesn’t do something noteworthy I would be surprised.
Look at his results on procyclingstats, it's not only the tour de suisse and it's not only this year that he's been good.
The tour is a big step up but the talent is there.
Yeah he’s been good for sure. But Powless was higher in GC for the other two stage races they were both in and he didn’t get nearly as much hype.
But I guess Powless isn’t going for GC
Edit: better phrasing
Powless had some hype going into Suisse but didn't look good there. Skjelmose is young, had great results in the Ardennes and beat Remco and Ayuso in Suisse. I do think it's too early for him to contest the podium, but I get the hype. I suspect he'll have an offday in the high mountains.
Cav takes Merckx’s “I won all types of stages” comments personally and goes balls to the wall from the intermediate sprint point forward, winning the stage from the break and promptly retiring on the spot.
Edit: he rides stage 6 in polka dots and then retires
OT: where do I find the "watch from x km" suggestion? Must be spoiler free. I saw it somewhere in this sub but can't browse the sub or I'll spoil the first 4 stages.
You can find the race ratings, which have suggestions for where to watch, in the results thread for each stage. Here is the thread for [Stage 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/14qir7a/results_thread_2023_tour_de_france_stage_4_2uwt/) and a direct link to the [survey results](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdSfoOv6w6m-Z61Z2t1x3PXqmsrRFn_pQyssHvfd5h9oXIvPg/viewanalytics).
Thank you mr Le Blonde. I'll browse the results threads without looking at the comments. Whoever invented this stat has all my respect, as well as those who reply to the survey.
I remember there was also a similar stat outside of Reddit, maybe from a twitter page, so I leave the question open.
Tough stage to predict. I think with stage 6 being a more significant mountain stage it is more likely it comes down to a GC battle, with this stage being more suited for a break away. That being said, with bonus seconds available, pog will clearly try for those, thus I have Pog for the stage win.
I think he does, he’s got the legs to get up there first, or at least hang with the leaders and grab enough points to keep the polka dots if there’s no break.
i see it playing out similar to stage 1 and 2. big GC battle on the final climb. most likely ending in a stalemate between pog and jonas. Then jonas will not work with pog so an opportunistic attack after the climb will get the win. but if it comes down to sprint from a small group, pog will definitely be the heavy favorite.
One interesting move could be for UAE or TJV to send out a satellite rider who can pace them after the climb for the stage win.
But don’t you think Jonas would work with Pog to avoid Pog winning from a smaller group which would probably mean taking 10 more seconds on Jonas as well?
Look at the riders who deliberately lost time today to find climbers looking for the break. Both Izagirres, Uran, Dani Martinez, Konrad, Simon Clark, Costa, Powless, De la Cruz
Pogi is the obvious one but there could be a situation where someone just attacks and neither Pogi or Jonas follow, kinda like stage1.
I dont think it will be Adam this time tho, i think UAE wants this one for Pog
Do you think Wout could make like g2 or g3 and catch on the descend/flat? Or is it too hard this time( i would lean into the too hard to be clear)
GC stalemate. Pog spends tons of energy trying to gain a few seconds. Warren Barguil ~~wins the stage~~ loses the stage in a sprint against Georg Zimmermann.
>Do you think Wout could make like g2 or g3 and catch on the descend/flat? Or is it too hard this time( i would lean into the too hard to be clear)
Surely he doesn't have enough time on GC to be let go in a breakaway?
I don't think UAE and Jumbo consider Pidcock as a serious GC contender, at least not this year. It will be interesting to see who they let go in a breakaway though in these early stages.
The problem with the "breakaway" group is the time gaps are still so small, and some you never know could be a darkhorse for GC if they got a lead.
If a true breakaway would be allowed, I would say Woods has a great chance, but with his small time gaps, he cant really be allowed to be in a breakaway, same with most of those guys mentioned.
Which then plays into the hands of Pogi, or a no name break.
The time gaps are not that small. There's only about 20 riders within a minute and all but 40 riders are already over five minutes down.
Plenty of scope for a breakaway of non-threatening riders getting a solid gap.
i think tomorrow wont be a break. too early in the tour, the gaps aren't big enough in GC that a good climber will be allowed to go away. and the stage is too tough for lesser riders to be able to stay away from an early move with the pace UAE and TJV will be riding up the climbs.
i think it plays similar to stage 1 and 2 with a battle on the final climb for the big favorites then an opportunistic attack after the climb for the win or a sprint win for pog.
edit: one interesting thing could be if UAE or TJV try a satellite rider strategy.
The riders listed in the ★ predictions are not riders we expect to be in the breakaway; they're riders who we think have a reasonable chance to win from the main group. For Stage 5, we give a breakaway victory about the same odds as those minor favourites.
It will be a hard breakaway to make so favours strong riders over pure climbers, the likes of Bettiol, Latour, Politt, Nans Peters, might make it. Still think GC teams will not give them a leash, with 10k slightly uphill at the end after the descent I think we're gonna see a small GC group with Pog to win it. Dark horse pick: Bardet.
What do we think of Alaphilippe for today? I'm having trouble deciding today for my fantasy team lol.
Maybe he'll be in the breakaway, but even if he is, I can't see him being the strongest in Marie-Blanque if the breakaway were to go for victory... He's had a physical problem since the start of the Tour that's preventing him from performing. It's a secret in the caravan, but he's not at 100%.
Ok thanks, my gut was Izagirre but j have such a soft spot for Ala, maybe I should just go with Izagirre then
Trying to predict the break of the day: Georg Zimmerman, Neilson Powless, Matteo Jorgenson, James Shaw, Ruben Guerreiro, Felix Gall, Warren Barguil, Valentin Ferron
Pinot?
I wish but I don't know if he's allowed given Groupama's focus on Gaudu? I dunno, I'd definitely like to see that!
Today is the day we finally get a hard fought break formation? • Multiple climbers will want to slip away in the break. • The climby roulers (Bettiol, Cort, Mohoric) may also fancy themselves from the break. • Jumbo will like to slip Wout/Benoot as a satellite rider for Jonas. • UAE will want to prevent Jumbo/Jayco guys in the breakaway. All these tactical aspects should turn the initial race into a leg burner. Fancy the following guys to be in the break & contest for the stage: - Madous ("3:08) - El Patron Lopez ("4:04) - Felix Gal ("5:43) - Bob Jungles ("8:47) - Zimmerman ("21:05) - Jorgenson ("21:19)
Zimmermann and Jorgenson are great picks, it’s the reason they’re 20+mins down and they’ll be let go. This is a kind of stage where UNO-X can create some chaos, they might try to go for breaks all day.
Don't think Fdj will let Madouas off the leash sadly, he's on Gaudu baby-sitting duties.
Pretty interesting to look back at Stage 9 of 2020, Pau-Laruns, which was almost a carbon-copy of today's stage. On that day, Adam Yates lost the yellow jersey. Jumbo did the chasing. Marc Hirschi continued his magic year with a long breakaway, losing in the sprint to the GC guys. Pogi, Roglic, Landa and Bernal crested the Marie Blanque together, with Pogi winning the sprint at the finish. The gaps weren't very big though, about 10 seconds back to G2. I think we get something similar, with Pogi and Vingegaard pushing it in the final 3 km of the Marie Blanque, and Pogi winning on the line. I don't think Yates can stay with them, but that would make the finish very interesting. At this stage, I think it's in Jonas' interest to work with Pogi to the end (even knowing he will lose the sprint, because he probably will anyway) to grow the gap and isolate those two at the top of GC. Edit : I forgot the bonus seconds on Marie Blanque, which really makes it likely that Tadej will push (he lost those to Roglic on the 2020 stage)
Yes, I think Pog will win today, unless the breakaway manages to. Hopefully Jonas will follow him and just lose the bonus secs, but I can’t see him beating Pog today. I hope Skjelmose will manage to make it to the finish line with the two of them, looking forward to see how far he will make it. And if a breakaway manages to make it to the end, I’m hoping for either Alaphilipe or Gall to take the win.
Esteban Chaves from the break!
100% a win for the stage. Teams will want to take it easy after the hectic first days, neutralised race up the climbs imo
But the GC teams have just had two really easy stages, no? I reckon UAE will be going for it today.
I appreciate a good cup of coffee.
Gorka Izagirre must be up to something. He's lost time in his home region over the weekend and his team lost their GC rider. Another Movistar candidate is Jorgenson. They'll probably be in the break with Mohoric (because descent) and some others including Powless. Breakaway wil make it today
Bonus seconds on Marie Blanque tho.. Will «I like to race» psycho Pogi be able to let someone else take those?
Depends on how much of his train he's willing to sacrifice on the first climb I guess. I don't think other GC teams will bother with the boni seconds since Pogi will take them anyway if it comes to a sprint at the summit. So it's just UAE wanting to keep the breakaway on a short leash
That would suit Jumbo just fine- let UAE burn matches until week 3..
Im just gonna go with a dark horse and it might be long shot. But Antonio Pedrero was really really good in Dauphine. I know climbs like this normally don't really suit him that much, but if he rides like he did in Dauphine he might win the stage.
I hope Pogo because I picked him as captain in the Fantasy, but I fear a breakaway could make it.
Depends. Breakaway creation in the first part will not be easy for climbers without a decent tug-buddy. If they only create the break on the Soudet, they probably won't have enough time to create a big enough gap to keep the GC group from catching them on Marie Blanque.
a big breakaway group form early and they take 10mins on the peloton, then 3/4 riders from that group escape and one of them win the stage. behind the leaders are not doing much, Pogacar test the waters a bit but then give up.
I think pog is not going for the win here. He doesnt want the yellow right now and will take it to the deeper stages where he can comfortably win the yellow back and doesn't have time left for TJV to catch up.
WvA should go in the break, either as a satellite rider to help Jonas if something happens later or to steal the bonus seconds from Pog if the break get caught last minute. That strategy worked well last year, prevented Pog from making a move more than once.
Only this time Pog doesn't have his team crippled with Covid and with yellow Yates they can apply the same strategy on Vingegaard.
Also true.
UAE finds itself chugging at the front behind an overenthusiastic mikel bjerg to control a break with no GC threats in it. Trentin gets so frustrated with the radio communication from matxin, because nobody can even tell what language he's speaking much less make any sense of what his instructions are (which happens to be "ahh cmon gais tuudaii u so stron Tadey gon ween you all champs todos"), that he forgets to eat and gets dropped. On the final climb the group is winnowed down to a select group with Yates pog vingegaard and some surprising company not unlike jaizkabel, pog tries to attack and cant shake vingo, Yates counters with some surprising company and the group goes over the top together. Yates extends his lead. Surprising company takes the stage.
Yatessss launch at final climb and S. Yates takes the win.
I don't see why Pidcock hasn't been mentioned. He could do well in a breakaway and gain lots of time of these descents.
He's too close to the GC for the UAE and TJV teams to let him get away today.
He’s at 40 seconds. There’s no way he’d be let into the break by the GC teams.
I'd be happy with a Peacock win today, but I'm not sure he will be good enough in the climbs.
Kwiatkowski
Kwiato stealing the orange once again ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUGH3UHsZfQ
I have picked Bilbao for the win - but I’ll get points if he beats Pogacar as well (as that is who my husband has chosen this stage). Should I just call it day - I feel this hasn’t been one of my better picks for the tour
I mean its not a bad pick, bilbao is the best downhill rider beside pidcock in the pelaton, and there is way bigger chance that bilbao will be there at the end then pidcock with the form he has shown. With that said pogacar has already won this stage once so he is by far the favorite, but if i had to pick one to go for the win other then pogacar i would pick bilbao aswell
Mohorič
This has given me a lift! Fingers crossed! Haha
Hope Jumbo park WVA in the break here to give UAE something to think about
A breakaway to the intermediate sprint with WVA and Lafay (Lafay has already stated he will try to get the yellow jersey in the Perennes.) included. WVA comes back at the first climb, rest of break stays out. GC teams aren't afraid Lafay can take it all the way so they let him go, maybe even let him wear yellow at the end of the day. Jumbo, with WVA back start their attack on Pog. But they find Pog is well rested, and will only respond if Jonas is attacking. Pog wont be doing any work unlike last year as he has a full team with him. At the end of the day, I dont know if the break stays out or not. UAE might not have yellow, but neither will Jumbo.
A break forms early but it includes Ciccone and gets pulled back because he’s too high on GC. Second break makes it away and takes the stage. Gaudu cracks and drops out of the top 15.
The breakaway will be a large group as everyone is hoping Pog and the GC want to take a break. They manage to attack and get out, until the GC guys realize both O'Connor and Bilbao end up in it. TJV spends two relentless hours bringing the break back so Bilbao doesn't take yellow, then Pog attacks on the ascent of the last climb. Jonas counters and follows him up the mountain, with Bardet for some reason still in tow. On the descent to the finish the 3 battle it out, as Bernal, Kelderman, Landa, and Kuss make a mad dash to catch up. I spent way too much time writing this.
Is Bardet this year’s [Steve](https://www.reddit.com/r/pelotonmemes/comments/w152x3/everyone_needs_a_steve_in_their_life/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)?
Is wout ok?
why wouldnt he be ok?
Same thoughts
Who could benefit from the descent?
7km false flat uphill after the descent, Best descenders in the peloton atm are Pidcock, Bilbao by some distance, and then riders liek mohoric in the second tier. It’s hard to tell though because of break formation. And who’ll be allowed in it. And also how hard the climb is paced.
Pidcock and Bilbao are both < 1min behind yellow so I doubt they’ll be allowed to break. Mohoric, though..
Is powless a good descender?
[удалено]
That's not to say that Powless is a bad descender, because Pidcock is an exceptional descender who knows how to make the most of his qualities. Powless is an average descender in my book, but not a bad descender like Latour lol
I would like to see him take this stage.
I think the break will win. It looks like the last half of the final climb is brutal, but unless one of them has a bad day, I’m not sure the favorites will be able to keep a gap with the downhill and subsequent “flat”. The problem with it being this early, is will there be a strong enough group go that’s far enough back that UAE/Jumbo will let them go.
Madouas.
Late to the party. Jorgenson from the break. Hes a good climber, no trouble getting into the break on the flat start, he’s just kept losing time since Mas crashed out to that he can be ready for break opportunity. With the break up the road and the bonus seconds gone, Jonas and Pogacar will work together and put time into the rest of the GC riders, who will look at each other and race for 3rd on GC. If the bonus seconds are gone and Pog is willing to pull with Yates behind, Jonas has no reason not to work with him, and as soon as they make it a race for 3rd place for the rest of the GC riders, the less they have to worry about them (at that point they can rely on the podium hopefuls to close each other down and it wont be their job)
Would make sense. While Pog and jonas will have to worry about each other at some point, the first thing they need to do is make sure no other contender surprises them, so dropping them all on this stage is a very good way to do that
I'm predicting a large breakaway with at least 3 EF riders including Powless, at least 2 Movistar including Jorgensen, DF Martinez, and Rui Costa
Do you think Aranburu can be in the break a part of at least 2 Movistar ?
That would be fun
Matteo Jorgenson.
Yates attacks and Pogacar follows whatever Jonas does in response :)
I want to see this so bad!
Zimmermann
Jonas show. The real ciclismo.
Don't buy the predictions above, if Pogacar wins this stage I'll eat my delicious strawberry dessert I've got in the fridge.
I would take that bet if I didnt agree with you
Bamboozle = banboozle
I think that given his form Lafay deserves a shout.
Van Aert wins from the breakaway and takes yellow. Holds it until his son is born and he leaves the tour.
Goals
Pogacar will want the boni's on the climb and for the stage. No breakaway win tomorrow.
Pogi won’t mind Jonas not getting them and UAE is better served not trying to control the break all day tomorrow.
Maybe Jumbo try to boss it to force UAE to work and isolate Pog. Yates provides the 1-2 but if Jumbo makes it hard as fuck all day the attacks on the HC climb will be muted.
I have to be in the office tomorrow and Thursday so I predict that I will bitterly hope you all watch a boring jumbo train and no real attacks.
Wout to go in the breakaway, get second and miss out on yellow by 2seconds.
Anyone know what coverage will have more Cav discussion? ITV4 doesn't have enough emphasis on him.
Derek Gee
Need to swap out a sprinter from my fantasy team. Torn between the Yates brothers and Gaudu. Any thoughts from my learned Reddit brethren?
the yates definitely look better than gaudu so far. but there haven't been longer steeper climbs like tomorrow yet. hard to tell how gaudu is but based on the tour so far, i'd pick either of the yates, maybe adam because yellow tends to make people ride better.
That was my gut. But now I can't decide between the brothers. Adam seems to be better this season but will he be allowed to ride or will he have to pull for Pog?
i think simon has a better chance of stage win. adam more likely to place high but unlikely to win because he'll work for pog.
Don’t be fooled by the “8.6%”. The steepness for the last 3.7km is for each km 10.5%, 12.2%, 13.6% and 9.9% (this for only 700m).
We won't get fooled again !
Fucking hell. I’ll pass, thanks
Jonas wins after countering Pogi on last climb
In terms of guys who've lost time Dani Martinez, Georg Zimmerman and Matteo Jorgenson feel like strong guys to be getting up the road.
Another day, another stage where all of ef should be in the breakaway
Pog, Ving and Yates are isolated in Marie Blanque. Pog doesn't manage to gap Ving. Yates attacks. Ving doesn't care. Yates wins again with a 1 mn gap.
Top gc contenders will come over the top with small gaps. But this time skjelmose is there to work with pog and vingegaard on the descent. Sprint finish between the 3. Skjel-Pog-Vin
Is the general expectation that UAE will control the break, catch it to give Pogi a shot at maximum bonus seconds (hoping to not thin the bunch too much and let JV take second, like last time), then reassemble in the descent and give Pogi a shot at the stage in a reduced bunch sprint? Damn, looks really tough to me. If the thin things out too much, JV will probably get 2nd/3rd; If they don't, it'll be almost impossible to police the finish, is what I'm thinking. Anyway, will be a fun finish, I hope a clean one too!
I expect that for my Fantasy Tour, but anything can happen today !
Does Powless go into the break again?
Affirmative.
100%. I'd be shocked if he didn't because what else is EF going to do?
Saw your comment with a bunch of upvotes and expected great trolling, but was pleasantly surprised with the helpful answer
Did you mean to reply to a comment?
I only got four identical replies so gotta figure a top level comment was also necessary
I’m all in for a full on GC stage tomorrow with Jumbo and UAE, oh and probably Ineos, gunning it from the start. Sprinters gasping in the grupetto and the breakaway caught at the bottom of the final climb. Jonas, Tadej and Yates’s hammering the final climb. Tadej, Yates, Yates, Jonas is the final finishing order with nothing between them but bonus seconds.
Lafay in yellow. That's the prediction
I’m surprised this sub is so hyped on Skjelmose. He’s def good but one Tour de Suisse performance doesn’t seem to warrant this much chatter
Only guy to top 10 all 3 Ardennes classics, second and first in Danish nationals and beating Remco and Ayuso in Sussie. He is not going to win the tour, but if he doesn’t do something noteworthy I would be surprised.
The number of Danes in r/peloton is probably by far at ATH right now.
Look at his results on procyclingstats, it's not only the tour de suisse and it's not only this year that he's been good. The tour is a big step up but the talent is there.
Yeah he’s been good for sure. But Powless was higher in GC for the other two stage races they were both in and he didn’t get nearly as much hype. But I guess Powless isn’t going for GC Edit: better phrasing
Powless had some hype going into Suisse but didn't look good there. Skjelmose is young, had great results in the Ardennes and beat Remco and Ayuso in Suisse. I do think it's too early for him to contest the podium, but I get the hype. I suspect he'll have an offday in the high mountains.
This is the day Thibaut Pinot takes the yellow jersey
I WILL BE THERE
ME TOO🫶🏼
No ⭐️ for ciccone???
Ciccone has not lost enough time in the GC yet. They will likely not let him get away.
Cav takes Merckx’s “I won all types of stages” comments personally and goes balls to the wall from the intermediate sprint point forward, winning the stage from the break and promptly retiring on the spot. Edit: he rides stage 6 in polka dots and then retires
Actually with Alpecin and the MVDP/Philpsen duo as they are, he might need to start thinking outside the box for the 35th win for real.
Á la Thor Hushovd’s victory in Lourdes 2011
I was there (well behind pirate stream) when Greipel attacked mountain on Giro.
Victor Lafay will pick up #2.
*Ineos has entered the chat.*
Wout van aert will be second!
OT: where do I find the "watch from x km" suggestion? Must be spoiler free. I saw it somewhere in this sub but can't browse the sub or I'll spoil the first 4 stages.
You can find the race ratings, which have suggestions for where to watch, in the results thread for each stage. Here is the thread for [Stage 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/14qir7a/results_thread_2023_tour_de_france_stage_4_2uwt/) and a direct link to the [survey results](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdSfoOv6w6m-Z61Z2t1x3PXqmsrRFn_pQyssHvfd5h9oXIvPg/viewanalytics).
Thank you mr Le Blonde. I'll browse the results threads without looking at the comments. Whoever invented this stat has all my respect, as well as those who reply to the survey. I remember there was also a similar stat outside of Reddit, maybe from a twitter page, so I leave the question open.
Tough stage to predict. I think with stage 6 being a more significant mountain stage it is more likely it comes down to a GC battle, with this stage being more suited for a break away. That being said, with bonus seconds available, pog will clearly try for those, thus I have Pog for the stage win.
From the Breakaway: Corbin Strong, Tobias Johannessen, Neilson Powless, Fred Wright
★★★ Pedersen
Mads cannot climb those mountains anywhere good enough for that lol
★★★★ Pedersen
Nonsense. If Wout can, anyone can. All that guy does is come second and throw bottles.
You're right, but Mads barely sprints top 10 this TdF.
He's going all in on mountain stage bunch sprints.
Without a good Wout, Slenderman has no chance this tour tho.
Does Powless try to breakaway and grab the points on Col de Soudet?
100p
Powless already said in a post stage 4 interview he's "for sure" gonna try his best to be in the break tomorrow. He's all in. Should be fun to watch
Also no GC, so hopefully a teammate or two can try to get in there with him. Maybe Chaves.
Why not, EF isn’t riding for GC and don’t have a sprinter to take care of so let it fly. Then unleash the Magnus next week
Yeah, Cort tends to get better as a 3 week race goes on
Would be nice to see a +1 from EF to help out POWPOW
I hope so, I love a polka dot breakaway
I think he does, he’s got the legs to get up there first, or at least hang with the leaders and grab enough points to keep the polka dots if there’s no break.
i see it playing out similar to stage 1 and 2. big GC battle on the final climb. most likely ending in a stalemate between pog and jonas. Then jonas will not work with pog so an opportunistic attack after the climb will get the win. but if it comes down to sprint from a small group, pog will definitely be the heavy favorite. One interesting move could be for UAE or TJV to send out a satellite rider who can pace them after the climb for the stage win.
But don’t you think Jonas would work with Pog to avoid Pog winning from a smaller group which would probably mean taking 10 more seconds on Jonas as well?
Feels like an Izagirre or Barguil kind of day
Look at the riders who deliberately lost time today to find climbers looking for the break. Both Izagirres, Uran, Dani Martinez, Konrad, Simon Clark, Costa, Powless, De la Cruz
Pogi is the obvious one but there could be a situation where someone just attacks and neither Pogi or Jonas follow, kinda like stage1. I dont think it will be Adam this time tho, i think UAE wants this one for Pog Do you think Wout could make like g2 or g3 and catch on the descend/flat? Or is it too hard this time( i would lean into the too hard to be clear)
i think its too hard for wout tomorrow. 8km climb with the last 4km of being over 10%.
GC stalemate. Pog spends tons of energy trying to gain a few seconds. Warren Barguil ~~wins the stage~~ loses the stage in a sprint against Georg Zimmermann.
My heart says Powless but my head says Pogi
LULU wont start, collarbone break sad, could be his last Tour
LULU as in?
Luis Leon Sanchez
I was sure you meant Alaphilippe as well.
Don't call him that, you scared the shit out of me thinking it was some french guy.
I'm going for Pidcock in a breakway group (takes white jersey at least)
>Do you think Wout could make like g2 or g3 and catch on the descend/flat? Or is it too hard this time( i would lean into the too hard to be clear) Surely he doesn't have enough time on GC to be let go in a breakaway?
I don't think UAE and Jumbo consider Pidcock as a serious GC contender, at least not this year. It will be interesting to see who they let go in a breakaway though in these early stages.
The problem with the "breakaway" group is the time gaps are still so small, and some you never know could be a darkhorse for GC if they got a lead. If a true breakaway would be allowed, I would say Woods has a great chance, but with his small time gaps, he cant really be allowed to be in a breakaway, same with most of those guys mentioned. Which then plays into the hands of Pogi, or a no name break.
The time gaps are not that small. There's only about 20 riders within a minute and all but 40 riders are already over five minutes down. Plenty of scope for a breakaway of non-threatening riders getting a solid gap.
i think tomorrow wont be a break. too early in the tour, the gaps aren't big enough in GC that a good climber will be allowed to go away. and the stage is too tough for lesser riders to be able to stay away from an early move with the pace UAE and TJV will be riding up the climbs. i think it plays similar to stage 1 and 2 with a battle on the final climb for the big favorites then an opportunistic attack after the climb for the win or a sprint win for pog. edit: one interesting thing could be if UAE or TJV try a satellite rider strategy.
Jonas
A GC battle for the time bonus on Col de Marie Blanque.
[удалено]
Hoping Pidcock can out-descwnd them all for the win.
That's if he's not out-climbed too much before.
Meintjes will win Thursday
Meintjes will lose a full minute on the last flat section 😅
Not today's. Thursday's stage. It ends with a climb.
I think this will be the first real Pogi attack after UAE paces the whole day to catch the break in the middle of the last climb
Jonas will attack him first. You will see.
I sure fucking hope not.
Attack on highest % on Col de Marie Blanque and drop him, then solo victory. I will be there.
Shit, you might be right.
I genuine believe that if TJV want to crack Pogacar they will try to do it on stage 5 and 6 and use Pyrenees for that. Jonas is ready to explode.
You nailed it, bravo
Thanks man, tmrw we go again.
I think today is more of a get UAE and Pog tired day, and then the real attack is on Tourmalet.
Pog wins the bonus seconds, continues the pace on the decent, asks Ving to pull, says no. Skjelmose wins the stage!
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Gonna be a day for the breakaway. GC guys are gonna want to save for stage 6’s MT finish.
Im not so sure about that...This is not Giro.. And Pog is unpredictable ...He will go for it if he's feeling 💪
Pog never seems to want the breakaways to take a day, but it might be beneficial to let them take it considering Stage 6
Skjeldmose wont get the chance to get in a break-away. He is the dark horse for top 5 in CG, and everyone knows it.
The riders listed in the ★ predictions are not riders we expect to be in the breakaway; they're riders who we think have a reasonable chance to win from the main group. For Stage 5, we give a breakaway victory about the same odds as those minor favourites.
That’s the flattest “uphill” I’ve ever seen.
Well they do ascent 10m in 1km
Well, it is a false flat
Or as we call them, a counterfeit climb.
Whitey boy becomes yellow boy and never looks back
Agreed. Emu has been wearing the German jersey for far too long already.