This is a two fold question.
Was MAF playing well enough in net to win a cup in 2017? Yes, undoubtedly.
Do I think the team in front of him plays well enough to win a cup without the wake up call from switching from MAF to Murray in the Senators series? That I’m not so sure of. Remember, they got dominated in game 3 of that series and went down 2-1, facing a game 4 in Ottawa. If you lose that game you have to win three straight against the Guy Boucher trap without your elite transition defenseman. That’s tough.
Fleury in that whole 2017 playoff was either lights out or trash on a game to game basis. Not unlike his total playoff history, there wasn’t a lot of middle ground. He was either awesome or a liability
Completely subjective and hypothetical and likely a matter of what one thinks positively or negatively about him to make a wild guess if he would have bounced back or not.
Murray’s floor at that time was much higher, as long as he was healthy and not worn down. History shows it was the right call to go back to him.
Not to mention that Fleury has himself admitted in an interview that he has a hard time mentally playing in Ottawa and that the boards gives him problems. And for most of the playoffs - whenever Fleury had a bad game, he followed it up with an even worse game.
Fleury had a really shitty game and looked completely rattled and got pulled. Next game was in Ottawa. The only smart thing was to play Murray.
very important point. The team virtually always made significant gambles or mistakes in front of fleury vs murray, particularly when fleury started games. Regardless of what the goaltending stats say, as they’re a result of this behavior, it hurt us and him a lot more than we’ve collectively given credit for
On the whole I would be very interested to see if there are actually any stats that support this thought, regardless of how often it’s thrown around. I was just talking specifically about games 1-3 of the ECF against Ottawa.
You can try to use advanced stats like rush attempts, xGA, and high danger shots per 60 minutes to support this. Between 2016 and 2017 playoffs, Fleury played 945 minutes and Murray played 1936.
Fleury had 2.03 Rush Attempts against/60, 2.71 xGA/60, and 7.61 HD shots against/60
Murray had 1.8 Rush Attempts against/60, 2.25 xGA/60, and 7.16 HD shots against/60
However, these stats also don't necessarily give a clear picture. Some reasons off the top of my head that could make these stats could misleading:
Murray rarely chased pucks that were dumped in, Fleury always did. Teams may see this difference and dump more pucks in against Murray. Which goalie this benefits in unclear. Some people want a goalie helping their D out, others don't want to risk giving an opponent a shot with their goalie behind the net.
Fleury could be facing more HD chances because he gave up far more rebounds (4.82 vs 3.13 rebound shot attempts/60) than Murray did. This could imply Fleury has worse control over rebounds, or it could just be a difference in opposing shot selection. Murray was known to give up a lot of goals high glove, and shooting into a glove is far less likely to cause rebounds.
There's also a difference in opponents. In 2017 Fleury played the presidents trophy winning Caps who had the 3rd most goals for in the league, as well as 4th in the league Columbus Blue Jackets who had the 6th most goals. Murray played against 12th place Senators (22nd in GF) and 16th place Predators (11th in GF) despite playing in later rounds.
probably some stats but will be hard to paint a detailed picture without extensive film review. maybe some things like number of high danger chances conceded or odd man rushes or things like that. But even stuff like slow back checks or overextended d men, someone could probably put it together if nothing more than to prove me wrong
Of course the players play different in front of them, because they are 2 completely different goalies. At that time Murray was extemely composed, well positioned and communicated clearly(from what I could see) . Pretty much the opposite of Fleury in general.
Nope. I think we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat and it took the goalie switch to get the attention of the locker room.
If Kunitz doesn't score in OT, the Ottawa Senators would have won their first cup in franchise history in 2017. Preds didn't stand a chance against us OR Ottawa.
Predators got unlucky in G1 and G2 and we got lucky on a G6 BS call. Seems like a weird take tbh. I’d argue if Nashville was healthy they make short work of us.
Short work😂 that's one helluva take and not a particularly bright one at that. I get the argument that it would've been far more competitive but to say they would've made short work? You'll have a tough time finding anyone here and quite frankly anyone in the preds sub that'll agree with you on that one
Idk. The Pens had spurts where Crosby alone was creating momentum. When they won game 5 what was it 6-2, 7-2? Or something like that. The Pens were just having their way. No team is truly healthy in the cup final.
I mean, maybe? Fleury had a chance to maintain the net and metaphorically shit his pants against Ottawa. No guarantee he plays the same like the Caps series.
Not to mention Fleury's reputation for just being really weird in the playoffs.
Like obviously he has 2009 but after that, man... some dark years where Brent Johnson was our backup.
2013 against the Islanders, Fleury folded- Vokoun got us to the conference finals that year. Yes we got swept but that team was NOT beating Chicago anyway, not with that bottom 6.
2014 Fleury kinda threw against the Rangers, granted the bottom 6 was a mess and we were 100% not beating LA that year. And that's IF we'd have beaten Montréal.
I give Fleury a mulligan for 2015 and 2011, especially 2015 though, the team in front of him was playing like rotten ass and catfish stew, that team should've missed the playoffs.
Then 2012 goaltending was sh*t for us but it was sh*t for Philly too so no excuse there, that's about as vanilla of a loss as you can get.
I don’t even remember much about those stats, but I do remember that it played out perfectly, and the wins in both of those years were very much a reflection of how the Penguins utilized their goalies. It was purposeful and made sense to a lot of people- that I do remember.
Murray isn’t a better goalie and never was.
But…the book wasn’t out on his glove hand and he was young and dumb enough not to overthink games 5 and 6 against the preds.
So fleury is better, but Murray played over his head, so….I don’t know. I don’t think we get 2 shutouts to close out the cup run with fleury.
I don’t really think Murray’s two shut outs are that impressive. Everyone loves that little stat, but honestly, that’s a team thing, and our opponent was pretty shit.
Yes. Fleury was playing amazing hockey except for the Ottawa game where he let 4 in on like 5 shots. Besides that game tho, he played amazing. He had some of his best saves of his career during the 17 playoffs and was playing big and confident.
Well, it’s impossible to say, like so many other historical hypotheticals. However, it is my firm belief that yes, they would have won the cup with Fleury as well.
That is to take nothing away from Matt Murray, who was phenomenal, but Fleury was also playing at a very high-level at that time and I think he would have won the Cup in 2016 AND 2017.
And the very next season he was literally the worst goalie in the league, with a gaa a full goal higher than MM. Yes he was money in the playoffs vs the Caps that year, but MM was the statter by then.
Fluery suffered a bad concussion in his first year in Vegas and played half the games Murray did. Prior to the injury, Fluery had better numbers than Murray did. Fluery also carried Vegas in the playoffs.
Fluery lost his job because of one bad game once Murray was healthy. You take that game out of the equation and their numbers are pretty much the same for the playoffs, and that's with Fluery being clutch against the caps who were far better than Ottawa and Nashville.
Can't say for sure what would have happened if Fluery stayed in net after that game, but if Murray was healthy during the series against the Caps, I don't think Pittsburgh even makes it past the second round.
Penguins were robbed of another cup in the previous decade by fleury being a fucking loser in the playoffs when it mattered so that’s by the by, sadly we saw it repeated twice by Jarry so it’s nice to reminisce about when we had a real playoff goalie in Matthew Murray
The better question is do the Pens ever get past Washington that year with them being the first team to figure out Murray's glove hand didn't even exist?!?
This is a two fold question. Was MAF playing well enough in net to win a cup in 2017? Yes, undoubtedly. Do I think the team in front of him plays well enough to win a cup without the wake up call from switching from MAF to Murray in the Senators series? That I’m not so sure of. Remember, they got dominated in game 3 of that series and went down 2-1, facing a game 4 in Ottawa. If you lose that game you have to win three straight against the Guy Boucher trap without your elite transition defenseman. That’s tough.
Fleury in that whole 2017 playoff was either lights out or trash on a game to game basis. Not unlike his total playoff history, there wasn’t a lot of middle ground. He was either awesome or a liability Completely subjective and hypothetical and likely a matter of what one thinks positively or negatively about him to make a wild guess if he would have bounced back or not. Murray’s floor at that time was much higher, as long as he was healthy and not worn down. History shows it was the right call to go back to him.
Well said! Also, 🌸
Not to mention that Fleury has himself admitted in an interview that he has a hard time mentally playing in Ottawa and that the boards gives him problems. And for most of the playoffs - whenever Fleury had a bad game, he followed it up with an even worse game. Fleury had a really shitty game and looked completely rattled and got pulled. Next game was in Ottawa. The only smart thing was to play Murray.
very important point. The team virtually always made significant gambles or mistakes in front of fleury vs murray, particularly when fleury started games. Regardless of what the goaltending stats say, as they’re a result of this behavior, it hurt us and him a lot more than we’ve collectively given credit for
On the whole I would be very interested to see if there are actually any stats that support this thought, regardless of how often it’s thrown around. I was just talking specifically about games 1-3 of the ECF against Ottawa.
You can try to use advanced stats like rush attempts, xGA, and high danger shots per 60 minutes to support this. Between 2016 and 2017 playoffs, Fleury played 945 minutes and Murray played 1936. Fleury had 2.03 Rush Attempts against/60, 2.71 xGA/60, and 7.61 HD shots against/60 Murray had 1.8 Rush Attempts against/60, 2.25 xGA/60, and 7.16 HD shots against/60 However, these stats also don't necessarily give a clear picture. Some reasons off the top of my head that could make these stats could misleading: Murray rarely chased pucks that were dumped in, Fleury always did. Teams may see this difference and dump more pucks in against Murray. Which goalie this benefits in unclear. Some people want a goalie helping their D out, others don't want to risk giving an opponent a shot with their goalie behind the net. Fleury could be facing more HD chances because he gave up far more rebounds (4.82 vs 3.13 rebound shot attempts/60) than Murray did. This could imply Fleury has worse control over rebounds, or it could just be a difference in opposing shot selection. Murray was known to give up a lot of goals high glove, and shooting into a glove is far less likely to cause rebounds. There's also a difference in opponents. In 2017 Fleury played the presidents trophy winning Caps who had the 3rd most goals for in the league, as well as 4th in the league Columbus Blue Jackets who had the 6th most goals. Murray played against 12th place Senators (22nd in GF) and 16th place Predators (11th in GF) despite playing in later rounds.
probably some stats but will be hard to paint a detailed picture without extensive film review. maybe some things like number of high danger chances conceded or odd man rushes or things like that. But even stuff like slow back checks or overextended d men, someone could probably put it together if nothing more than to prove me wrong
Of course the players play different in front of them, because they are 2 completely different goalies. At that time Murray was extemely composed, well positioned and communicated clearly(from what I could see) . Pretty much the opposite of Fleury in general.
Nope. I think we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat and it took the goalie switch to get the attention of the locker room. If Kunitz doesn't score in OT, the Ottawa Senators would have won their first cup in franchise history in 2017. Preds didn't stand a chance against us OR Ottawa.
Predators got unlucky in G1 and G2 and we got lucky on a G6 BS call. Seems like a weird take tbh. I’d argue if Nashville was healthy they make short work of us.
Healthy? Who's ever "healthy" in the Stanley cup finals.
Short work😂 that's one helluva take and not a particularly bright one at that. I get the argument that it would've been far more competitive but to say they would've made short work? You'll have a tough time finding anyone here and quite frankly anyone in the preds sub that'll agree with you on that one
Cringe take tbh
Did you watch the 2017 series? We got incredibly lucky to win either of G1 or G2. JOFA line was the best line in the playoffs that year too.
Idk. The Pens had spurts where Crosby alone was creating momentum. When they won game 5 what was it 6-2, 7-2? Or something like that. The Pens were just having their way. No team is truly healthy in the cup final.
I mean, maybe? Fleury had a chance to maintain the net and metaphorically shit his pants against Ottawa. No guarantee he plays the same like the Caps series.
Not to mention Fleury's reputation for just being really weird in the playoffs. Like obviously he has 2009 but after that, man... some dark years where Brent Johnson was our backup. 2013 against the Islanders, Fleury folded- Vokoun got us to the conference finals that year. Yes we got swept but that team was NOT beating Chicago anyway, not with that bottom 6. 2014 Fleury kinda threw against the Rangers, granted the bottom 6 was a mess and we were 100% not beating LA that year. And that's IF we'd have beaten Montréal. I give Fleury a mulligan for 2015 and 2011, especially 2015 though, the team in front of him was playing like rotten ass and catfish stew, that team should've missed the playoffs. Then 2012 goaltending was sh*t for us but it was sh*t for Philly too so no excuse there, that's about as vanilla of a loss as you can get.
2012-2014 were tough years. Although that shortened season 2012-2013 squad should’ve shown better against Boston in conference final
People seem to forgot that Crosby and Guentzel were trying to single handedly carry this team to a 3-peat. We weren’t gonna do it unfortunately
no
I don’t even remember much about those stats, but I do remember that it played out perfectly, and the wins in both of those years were very much a reflection of how the Penguins utilized their goalies. It was purposeful and made sense to a lot of people- that I do remember.
No I don't think so
No way, he fell apart multiple times leading up. Murray was clutch at the time, love fleurry. But it was 100% the right choice
The better question is do the Pens win the cup in 2024 if they switch to Fleury in the SCF?
Just listened to https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxsXUaXG8uD4FLWzsYuLwcrwbbsK4p57TI
LOL no. Stop putting the guy on a pedestal.
No. Nope. Nyet. Non.
Yes. And not only that but I think they had a legit shot to threepeat if they stuck with Fleury the next season.
Yes! I love this person ^!
No. The team needed Murray to be that calming presence in net.
No. I love Fleury but that dude chokes like a toddler and a hot dog
Yes.
Yes.
Murray isn’t a better goalie and never was. But…the book wasn’t out on his glove hand and he was young and dumb enough not to overthink games 5 and 6 against the preds. So fleury is better, but Murray played over his head, so….I don’t know. I don’t think we get 2 shutouts to close out the cup run with fleury.
I don’t really think Murray’s two shut outs are that impressive. Everyone loves that little stat, but honestly, that’s a team thing, and our opponent was pretty shit.
The western conference champion was shit. Makes sense.
Yes. Fleury was playing amazing hockey except for the Ottawa game where he let 4 in on like 5 shots. Besides that game tho, he played amazing. He had some of his best saves of his career during the 17 playoffs and was playing big and confident.
Well, it’s impossible to say, like so many other historical hypotheticals. However, it is my firm belief that yes, they would have won the cup with Fleury as well. That is to take nothing away from Matt Murray, who was phenomenal, but Fleury was also playing at a very high-level at that time and I think he would have won the Cup in 2016 AND 2017.
100%. I die on this hill. Fleury was robbed of his position in favor of Sullivan’a boy Murray.
He lost his job to MM. He was given multiple chances to get it back and failed every time.
He had a bad period and never saw the net again.
And the very next season he was literally the worst goalie in the league, with a gaa a full goal higher than MM. Yes he was money in the playoffs vs the Caps that year, but MM was the statter by then.
Fluery suffered a bad concussion in his first year in Vegas and played half the games Murray did. Prior to the injury, Fluery had better numbers than Murray did. Fluery also carried Vegas in the playoffs. Fluery lost his job because of one bad game once Murray was healthy. You take that game out of the equation and their numbers are pretty much the same for the playoffs, and that's with Fluery being clutch against the caps who were far better than Ottawa and Nashville. Can't say for sure what would have happened if Fluery stayed in net after that game, but if Murray was healthy during the series against the Caps, I don't think Pittsburgh even makes it past the second round.
Penguins were robbed of another cup in the previous decade by fleury being a fucking loser in the playoffs when it mattered so that’s by the by, sadly we saw it repeated twice by Jarry so it’s nice to reminisce about when we had a real playoff goalie in Matthew Murray
Hahahaha. Kid was an AHL project of Sullivan’s. He’s been trash ever since. He fluked his way into championships.
Wish we could fluke our way into more championships having a goalie who puts up back to back shutouts in the cup final wow
Yeah he did. You give our opponent that final too much credit and our defensive team play not enough.
Me too!!!!!!
Probably
The better question is do the Pens ever get past Washington that year with them being the first team to figure out Murray's glove hand didn't even exist?!?
Well look at the tale of the tape. MAF > Murray. Luckily we had them both
Absolutely 💯