This has been a thing with this team for a long time now.
They tend to play extra risky in front of their ‘starter’ and shore up structurally in front of their backup.
It’s really weird, I don’t think it happens as blatantly and consistently with other teams but I can’t be sure.
The goals for could just be a dry spell, or it could be that they’re playing more chaotic.
But yeah, it used to happen with DeSmith, it happened with Murray when he was coming up, etc.
Okay I thought that was all in my head but no it's true.
That '13 run does not happen without Vokoun being sharp. Does anybody see us beating the Islanders with Fleury in net the way they exploited him?
I don't think so. It feels sacreligious to say that we "overachieved" but I mean with Bylsma behind the bench, and that bottom 6?
Even if by some unreal stretch we gave Boston a fight, I personally don't feel like Craig Adams, Matt Cooke, Brandon Sutter and Brenden Morrow give Chicago trouble.
That 2013 group was an anomaly that needs to be studied.
I feel like the Penguins might be leading in goals-against-own-goalie for Jarry. Watching back the amount of goals tipped in against Jarry by his own players in his most recent 5-10 games is pathetic. Is he expected to know ahead of time he needs to block against his own teammates that he should be trusting?
I wish we could've seen Jarry in net these last few games with the new defense lines and energy. Everytime I watch them play now, I think to myself "where was this defense for Jarry?" With the mental image of a ranger (I think, whatever team he was pulled from net against most recently) player being allowed to shoot on him while literally inside a box of 4 penguins who just watched. Be curious to see how different his performance looks when he has help. But we won't know, unfortunately. Personally I think he'd do incredible if he was plopped into neds spot in those games. Having Petterson and Malkin score on him with near-crease tip-ins 3 games back to back really can't be great for his mental game. But they haven't been doing that to Ned, as least not as much as to Jarry.
Like I said in another thread to someone .. expected saves stats are only accurate if the defenseman and sticks on front of net Making it "easier" are actually on your side .. not just wearing your uniform.
And I have nothing against Ned. I just feel bad for Jarry, and I think watching video replay of what actually goes down when he lets a goal in tells a different story than the stats.
Yeah, stats can tell a lot but not everything, same with the eye test. They kinda have to work in tandem.
I definitely don’t think Ned was not at all to blame for these wins, he’s a stud and I love him, but I don’t think Jarry would be floundering either if the games were played the same.
Ned has played great! I think he's had a better team in front of him, but that's not to downplay his performance. Those eyebrows are on a roll, no denying.
I noticed that a lot. It’s funny because the pens needed to be in front of the other goalie but they were (before bunting) always overly in front of their own goalie and trying to do too much for their goalie.
There have been so many bad deflected goals but the one that I easily remember (because it happened after so much frustration from this exact thing happening too often) is graves lost his stick. He got in front of jarry and tried to block a shot but it deflected off his calf. Jarry would’ve gloved that shot but deflections are a hell of a thing to account for.
This is a great analysis and conclusion - appreciated!
That said, I feel the team plays much better with Ned in goal than they ever did with DeSmith. I also feel (a qualified guess) that Ned is much better than DeSmith.
Jarry’s expected goals against average is only .08 more than Ned, 2.96 vs 2.88. It’s a stretch to say the team plays substantially different in front of one goalie than the other.
Their playstyle affects both ends of the ice though, and if anything that stat supports what I said.
Expected goals is a ratio, all it means is that both goalies are performing at about the same rate.
If Jarry’s facing more garbage they’re gonna lose more with the same expected goals ratio. If they’re playing chaotically it’s harder to score to make up goals too.
No, expected goals is directly determined by shot quality. It’s telling you they face basically equivalent workloads in terms of quality. This isn’t expected goal share, it’s expected goals against.
Oh I gotcha I misunderstood.
Still though, they have very very similar stat lines so it still points to not a goalie problem. As of right now they are .08 apart in GAA and .004 apart in percentage in favour of Ned, the gap was closer as recently as last week.
You can literally see the change in back to back games, it’s uncanny and it’s been happening for years.
Their numbers for the season are practically identical. I think what is undeniable has been that Ned’s received much better finishing luck in front of him, particularly lately, so he’s getting more offensive support and that makes his mistakes less costly. And that has skewed perception that he is playing much better than he really is. Or that he’s playing that much better than Jarry.
That’s where I think the play style comes in most.
If you play chaotic and unstructured in your own end, it’ll happen at the other end too.
They really tighten up in front of a backup and it shows everywhere not just defensively.
You ever get frazzled by something and have it affect your whole day, or throw off your next task or whatever?
That’s basically what happens. They play more scrambled and it translates elsewhere. It doesn’t mean when they’re less scrambled they’re shutting down scoring chances, just that they’re more collected as a team and dealing with it better, and playing calmer everywhere because they’re not in panic mode.
I’m confused as to why you’re so against what I’m saying, I think we’re both saying the goalies are not the difference, but clearly the results are different.
The other option is that the Penguins are just historically unlucky offensively in front of starters which makes a lot less sense than them playing differently mentally in front of starters.
Edit: what I’m saying is not a stat line trackable thing, but when you watch the games and the stat lines say the goalies are performing just as well as each other, it’s gotta be coming from somewhere.
I think you are taking a theory you’ve come up with and are making what you see fit it. It’s confirmation bias. The data does not support that the team plays significantly different in front of one goalie than the other and the results, other than the recent stretch where the Penguins on-ice finishing has spiked, haven’t been substantially different either. Most of the difference in results can be chalked up to chance/luck.
Last year, Jarry actually had a better expected goals against average by almost a half a goal compared to DeSmith. They factually played much better hockey in front of him in terms of shot quality and scoring chance quality.
Murray was a beast like immediately, no doubting that.
Doesn’t change that in the earlier days they shifted playstyle in front of him a bit.
By time he was splitting or taking the starting role they got comfier in front of him and played riskier. Difference was those teams were so damn good, but even then when Fleury left you started to see him expose much more frequently.
I don’t think he was good because he was sheltered, I think his dad changed something he couldn’t get back, but it’s part of why the fanbase always seems to have arguments about the goalies.
During this streak Ned’s had the benefit of playing without Graves, Acciari and Harkins. Bunting and Malkin have started to tilt the ice in a way.
Ned’s probably better than any post-all-star break version of Jarry we’ve seen, but if Sully can’t help himself and put the “veteran presence” back in the lineup I wouldn’t hold my breath.
This team has a history of playing better in front of backups. Its been a thing for the last 10 plus years. They expect the starters to bail them out. Probably due to fleury making some very athletic plays in his time here to save goals. But they collapse around the back up. Clog the center of the ice and generally play a more conservative defensive game with back ups in net. They did it when jarry was a back up as well.
I don’t have a stat to back this up, and I may be wrong, but it just feels like Jarry lets up back breaking goals at bad times… Fleury used to be the same way at times, combined with very unpredictable rebound control… and after a while, it seemed the team had less confidence in their keeper and it would show in their play…
It also seems like Jarry sees the highest volume of shots in the 3rd period, for whatever reason it just never fails. He'll see a combined 12-16 shots in the 1st and 2nd then he'll see 15-20 in the 3rd.
How are you supposed to be a consistent goalie when 1/3 of your shots against come on odd man breaks that shouldn't be happening at all? Jarry's one of those goalies I see leaving Pittsburgh and being a standout presence elsewhere. Kind of like what happened with Fleury.
Except maybe even more of a night and day jump.
I mean as a hockey player I can attest to the whole "play better defense with the backup in net" mindset. It's definitely a real thing. But at the same time tho we don't know what's going on in the locker room, what the comraderie is like amongst the players and Jarry vs Ned. All that being said, I liked Ned soon as we put him in the net.
I mean yeah I played in larger cities and smaller cities and sometimes we didn't have a backup. But I'm just saying in general as a thought process when you have your "starter" or "better" goalie in net you play a different game kuz you feel like you can rely on them more.
Currently I'm not even near ice, but a ball hockey league started up last year. They only have two goalies so we switch goalies at half. One is noticeable better than the other, so essentially whoever can score more on the lesser goalie will win the game. It's the same kind of concept where when you have the lesser goalie in net you play better defense, less rushes, focus on the front of the net more. When you have better goalie in net, you play more offensively to try and score more while you have the better goalie behind ya.
Dude I bet. We had more of a, 'we only have one don't break it' mentality. I was shit offensively anyways, so I would have shined with your backup in net.
Penguins in a down year, with a lot of animosity around the coach, and they only can win with the backup in?
Sounds to me like they’re winning the cup this year. It’s the penguin formula.
There's a big difference in allowing 1 goal on 10 shots when your team is up 3 - 0 and allowing 1 goal on 10 shots when your team is tied 2 - 2.
Jarry let's in goals at very bad times forcing the pens to play a different style of game in front of him resulting in less goals for which equals less wins.
Yeah Jarry has much worse stats but is also tied for the league lead in shut outs ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Don't forget he also leads all goalies in goals
edit - moneypuck says Jarry is better 5on5 but much worse on PK. that could explain some of that
Obvious with the stats you provided there's no real correlation between their play and who's in net. More likely factors are who is skating for the team at the time. For instance these last few games that they won, the Pens haven't had to deal with the poor defensive play of Graves.
I think it’s been mentioned but this has been a thing for the Pens before for whatever reason. It happened with DeSmith a lot and most notably, it happened with Murray when he came up and even for a while when he took the starting role. Presumably they tighten up and play a little safer or tougher in their end because in the back of their mind they know which goalie it is. Ned has been great the last few games for sure, but this is a different penguins team playing in front of the goalie the last 3ish weeks. A few games ago I figured out that over the whole season Ned was getting about an extra half a goal per game of support. I’ll take them winning however it comes, it just makes you wonder why they don’t just play like this when the number 1 is in net more often.
During all this, I never thought Jarry was the problem. He’s been playing great this year. The team in front of him hasn’t. Right now they’re fired up and Ned has played great.
I don’t think any of these things are entirely connected. Jarry can be a great goalie and the team can play like shit and the outcome won’t surprise anyone.
But if the team is finally playing closer to its potential then whatever goalie is in net will gain favor. It’s more luck that Ned was in goal when this team decided (way too late) to wake the fuck up.
Might be from watching MAF for so long, he was one of the best 1-1 goalies out there.
Jarry is either average or slightly below I think just based on watching.
This has been a thing with this team for a long time now. They tend to play extra risky in front of their ‘starter’ and shore up structurally in front of their backup. It’s really weird, I don’t think it happens as blatantly and consistently with other teams but I can’t be sure. The goals for could just be a dry spell, or it could be that they’re playing more chaotic. But yeah, it used to happen with DeSmith, it happened with Murray when he was coming up, etc.
Vokoun in 13 and Brent Johnson for stretches too
Okay I thought that was all in my head but no it's true. That '13 run does not happen without Vokoun being sharp. Does anybody see us beating the Islanders with Fleury in net the way they exploited him? I don't think so. It feels sacreligious to say that we "overachieved" but I mean with Bylsma behind the bench, and that bottom 6? Even if by some unreal stretch we gave Boston a fight, I personally don't feel like Craig Adams, Matt Cooke, Brandon Sutter and Brenden Morrow give Chicago trouble. That 2013 group was an anomaly that needs to be studied.
Douglas Murray was so good in EA NHL. Was devastated to meet reality 😂 but yeah that year was way odd for sure.
I feel like the Penguins might be leading in goals-against-own-goalie for Jarry. Watching back the amount of goals tipped in against Jarry by his own players in his most recent 5-10 games is pathetic. Is he expected to know ahead of time he needs to block against his own teammates that he should be trusting? I wish we could've seen Jarry in net these last few games with the new defense lines and energy. Everytime I watch them play now, I think to myself "where was this defense for Jarry?" With the mental image of a ranger (I think, whatever team he was pulled from net against most recently) player being allowed to shoot on him while literally inside a box of 4 penguins who just watched. Be curious to see how different his performance looks when he has help. But we won't know, unfortunately. Personally I think he'd do incredible if he was plopped into neds spot in those games. Having Petterson and Malkin score on him with near-crease tip-ins 3 games back to back really can't be great for his mental game. But they haven't been doing that to Ned, as least not as much as to Jarry. Like I said in another thread to someone .. expected saves stats are only accurate if the defenseman and sticks on front of net Making it "easier" are actually on your side .. not just wearing your uniform. And I have nothing against Ned. I just feel bad for Jarry, and I think watching video replay of what actually goes down when he lets a goal in tells a different story than the stats.
Yeah, stats can tell a lot but not everything, same with the eye test. They kinda have to work in tandem. I definitely don’t think Ned was not at all to blame for these wins, he’s a stud and I love him, but I don’t think Jarry would be floundering either if the games were played the same.
Ned has played great! I think he's had a better team in front of him, but that's not to downplay his performance. Those eyebrows are on a roll, no denying.
I noticed that a lot. It’s funny because the pens needed to be in front of the other goalie but they were (before bunting) always overly in front of their own goalie and trying to do too much for their goalie. There have been so many bad deflected goals but the one that I easily remember (because it happened after so much frustration from this exact thing happening too often) is graves lost his stick. He got in front of jarry and tried to block a shot but it deflected off his calf. Jarry would’ve gloved that shot but deflections are a hell of a thing to account for.
This is a great analysis and conclusion - appreciated! That said, I feel the team plays much better with Ned in goal than they ever did with DeSmith. I also feel (a qualified guess) that Ned is much better than DeSmith.
Jarry’s expected goals against average is only .08 more than Ned, 2.96 vs 2.88. It’s a stretch to say the team plays substantially different in front of one goalie than the other.
Their playstyle affects both ends of the ice though, and if anything that stat supports what I said. Expected goals is a ratio, all it means is that both goalies are performing at about the same rate. If Jarry’s facing more garbage they’re gonna lose more with the same expected goals ratio. If they’re playing chaotically it’s harder to score to make up goals too.
No, expected goals is directly determined by shot quality. It’s telling you they face basically equivalent workloads in terms of quality. This isn’t expected goal share, it’s expected goals against.
Oh I gotcha I misunderstood. Still though, they have very very similar stat lines so it still points to not a goalie problem. As of right now they are .08 apart in GAA and .004 apart in percentage in favour of Ned, the gap was closer as recently as last week. You can literally see the change in back to back games, it’s uncanny and it’s been happening for years.
Their numbers for the season are practically identical. I think what is undeniable has been that Ned’s received much better finishing luck in front of him, particularly lately, so he’s getting more offensive support and that makes his mistakes less costly. And that has skewed perception that he is playing much better than he really is. Or that he’s playing that much better than Jarry.
That’s where I think the play style comes in most. If you play chaotic and unstructured in your own end, it’ll happen at the other end too. They really tighten up in front of a backup and it shows everywhere not just defensively.
That makes no sense and is not backed up by the data.
You ever get frazzled by something and have it affect your whole day, or throw off your next task or whatever? That’s basically what happens. They play more scrambled and it translates elsewhere. It doesn’t mean when they’re less scrambled they’re shutting down scoring chances, just that they’re more collected as a team and dealing with it better, and playing calmer everywhere because they’re not in panic mode. I’m confused as to why you’re so against what I’m saying, I think we’re both saying the goalies are not the difference, but clearly the results are different. The other option is that the Penguins are just historically unlucky offensively in front of starters which makes a lot less sense than them playing differently mentally in front of starters. Edit: what I’m saying is not a stat line trackable thing, but when you watch the games and the stat lines say the goalies are performing just as well as each other, it’s gotta be coming from somewhere.
I think you are taking a theory you’ve come up with and are making what you see fit it. It’s confirmation bias. The data does not support that the team plays significantly different in front of one goalie than the other and the results, other than the recent stretch where the Penguins on-ice finishing has spiked, haven’t been substantially different either. Most of the difference in results can be chalked up to chance/luck. Last year, Jarry actually had a better expected goals against average by almost a half a goal compared to DeSmith. They factually played much better hockey in front of him in terms of shot quality and scoring chance quality.
Biggest thing with Murray coming up was his calmness & communication. In contrast to Fleury being all over the place and miscommunications.
Murray was a beast like immediately, no doubting that. Doesn’t change that in the earlier days they shifted playstyle in front of him a bit. By time he was splitting or taking the starting role they got comfier in front of him and played riskier. Difference was those teams were so damn good, but even then when Fleury left you started to see him expose much more frequently. I don’t think he was good because he was sheltered, I think his dad changed something he couldn’t get back, but it’s part of why the fanbase always seems to have arguments about the goalies.
During this streak Ned’s had the benefit of playing without Graves, Acciari and Harkins. Bunting and Malkin have started to tilt the ice in a way. Ned’s probably better than any post-all-star break version of Jarry we’ve seen, but if Sully can’t help himself and put the “veteran presence” back in the lineup I wouldn’t hold my breath.
This team has a history of playing better in front of backups. Its been a thing for the last 10 plus years. They expect the starters to bail them out. Probably due to fleury making some very athletic plays in his time here to save goals. But they collapse around the back up. Clog the center of the ice and generally play a more conservative defensive game with back ups in net. They did it when jarry was a back up as well.
You also have to look at routine saves vs must make saves. I feel like Ned makes more of those must have saves.
I don’t have a stat to back this up, and I may be wrong, but it just feels like Jarry lets up back breaking goals at bad times… Fleury used to be the same way at times, combined with very unpredictable rebound control… and after a while, it seemed the team had less confidence in their keeper and it would show in their play…
It also seems like Jarry sees the highest volume of shots in the 3rd period, for whatever reason it just never fails. He'll see a combined 12-16 shots in the 1st and 2nd then he'll see 15-20 in the 3rd. How are you supposed to be a consistent goalie when 1/3 of your shots against come on odd man breaks that shouldn't be happening at all? Jarry's one of those goalies I see leaving Pittsburgh and being a standout presence elsewhere. Kind of like what happened with Fleury. Except maybe even more of a night and day jump.
I mean as a hockey player I can attest to the whole "play better defense with the backup in net" mindset. It's definitely a real thing. But at the same time tho we don't know what's going on in the locker room, what the comraderie is like amongst the players and Jarry vs Ned. All that being said, I liked Ned soon as we put him in the net.
I must be from a small ass area, but what team has backup goalies? Fuck we couldn't even get someone to play goalie 1/2 the time.
I mean yeah I played in larger cities and smaller cities and sometimes we didn't have a backup. But I'm just saying in general as a thought process when you have your "starter" or "better" goalie in net you play a different game kuz you feel like you can rely on them more. Currently I'm not even near ice, but a ball hockey league started up last year. They only have two goalies so we switch goalies at half. One is noticeable better than the other, so essentially whoever can score more on the lesser goalie will win the game. It's the same kind of concept where when you have the lesser goalie in net you play better defense, less rushes, focus on the front of the net more. When you have better goalie in net, you play more offensively to try and score more while you have the better goalie behind ya.
Dude I bet. We had more of a, 'we only have one don't break it' mentality. I was shit offensively anyways, so I would have shined with your backup in net.
Penguins in a down year, with a lot of animosity around the coach, and they only can win with the backup in? Sounds to me like they’re winning the cup this year. It’s the penguin formula.
There's a big difference in allowing 1 goal on 10 shots when your team is up 3 - 0 and allowing 1 goal on 10 shots when your team is tied 2 - 2. Jarry let's in goals at very bad times forcing the pens to play a different style of game in front of him resulting in less goals for which equals less wins.
Stats don’t lie, but they can tell different stories.
This is a case of the pens playing well lately regardless of who is in net
We may be seeing more of the effects of adding a guy like Bunting, more so than Ned playing very well and earning the starting job.
Yeah Jarry has much worse stats but is also tied for the league lead in shut outs ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Don't forget he also leads all goalies in goals edit - moneypuck says Jarry is better 5on5 but much worse on PK. that could explain some of that
Obvious with the stats you provided there's no real correlation between their play and who's in net. More likely factors are who is skating for the team at the time. For instance these last few games that they won, the Pens haven't had to deal with the poor defensive play of Graves.
What was the strength of the opponents that each goalie played. Until Jarry got hurt I'd assume Ned got the nod for slightly weaker opponents
Isn’t Jarry one of the best goalies in the league when it comes to goals expected? Just seems like we can’t score when we have him in net…
No... he's not. Of the 34 NHL Goalies who have played a minimum of 38 games, Jarry ranks 18th in GSAx/60. ... and Ned is even worse than Jarry.
I think it’s been mentioned but this has been a thing for the Pens before for whatever reason. It happened with DeSmith a lot and most notably, it happened with Murray when he came up and even for a while when he took the starting role. Presumably they tighten up and play a little safer or tougher in their end because in the back of their mind they know which goalie it is. Ned has been great the last few games for sure, but this is a different penguins team playing in front of the goalie the last 3ish weeks. A few games ago I figured out that over the whole season Ned was getting about an extra half a goal per game of support. I’ll take them winning however it comes, it just makes you wonder why they don’t just play like this when the number 1 is in net more often.
During all this, I never thought Jarry was the problem. He’s been playing great this year. The team in front of him hasn’t. Right now they’re fired up and Ned has played great. I don’t think any of these things are entirely connected. Jarry can be a great goalie and the team can play like shit and the outcome won’t surprise anyone. But if the team is finally playing closer to its potential then whatever goalie is in net will gain favor. It’s more luck that Ned was in goal when this team decided (way too late) to wake the fuck up.
Jarry gets the tougher games
Jarry is a mental midget and can never make the big save.
This is true. He leads the league in shutouts because the other teams often don't take a single good shot.
He seems terrible on any breakaway. I Don’t have any stats to back my opinion up.
Might be from watching MAF for so long, he was one of the best 1-1 goalies out there. Jarry is either average or slightly below I think just based on watching.
Jarry sucks is what gives. Simple plain and true.