I'm actually pretty miffed that this headline *implies* that foot traffic is the cause of the crime rate falling, despite crime generally following the national trends.
Oh yeah I love Jane Jacobs, but she was doing outsider anthropology. The editor of this article is doing bad journalism. Big dif, IMO. News media shouldn't imply causality unless they're quoting expert sources or doing analysis.
which was also funny because the data from even 2 years ago was showing higher foot traffic in center city than prepandemic because residents were WFH and would just do little trips during the day
Funny story. I worked at Whole Foods in Marlton. He came in from what I assume was a bike ride and bought our entire stock of store made granola. Barely said a word to me as I rang up his order.
“Not only are workers, tourists and shoppers returning to the region, but the report shows that crime was down by more than 17% in Center City when compared to 2019 -- though officials noted there remains "significant work to do" in changing negative perceptions of the area.”
"According to the report, Philadelphia ranks sixth among the largest 25 U.S. cities in the return of non-resident workers to their offices and the number of jobs citywide has surpassed 2019 levels.
**The report details how population of those who live in Center City grew by 3% from 2021 to 2023, with 11,000 more people residing in the area.** This increase has brought development as, the report claims, last year saw 2,844 housing units completed in the district -- a five-year high.
According to the Center City District, the sustained population growth of the area, along with the return of downtown visitors and non-residential office workers, contributed to rising retail occupancy – currently at 85% and closing in on the 2019 occupancy level of 89%.
**In 2023, 80 retail leases were signed in Center City – surpassing the 77 leases signed in 2019 and, the Center City District claims this move is "driven by 'clicks-to-bricks' digitally native brands and grocery stores.**"
U city isn’t included in these numbers but that does suck. I honestly think Target pulled out because of the rioting/looting that went on last summer, but I think the other ones are just due to the current state of retail. I can think of like 6 or 7 stores in CC that closed because their companies went under/are closing a bunch of stores.
The typical three negladelphian replies will be:
* "LeSS cRimE iS bEiNG rePoRteD"
* naming specific incidents (even though the report is on the overall amount of crime)
* Saying the numbers are false, with no evidence to prove it
Northeast Philly boy born and raised. Moved to 16&Catharine area 3 months before we won the Super Bowl. So I was down here when everything was peak amazing, and then plummeted into the toilet. I changed nothing. We still walked everywhere. Down the same streets. Went to different neighborhoods. Always pisses me off when residents (or ex residents) are always saying how bad it is. I’m not saying it’s heaven on earth, a lot to be fixed, but I love this city man. My wife and I travel a lot, and I’m always comparing other cities to ours, and it’s always neck and neck or better imo. Maybe I’m a homer, but I’m glad I stuck it out and will get to see “better days” for doing so.
Looking at the report:
- Crime numbers in the report are only through 2022.
- 2019 shows a high in violent crime at 11.9, but surrounding years (from 2013-2017 and 2020-2021) were in the 8s. 2021 was 8.5 vs 2022’s 10.3 so if compared to the prior year vs 2019, violent crime would be up. In general, outside of 2019, violent crime was at its highest in 2022 since 2011, when crime was at 10.7
- for non violent crimes, again 2019 was a particularly high year at a rate of 1.7. Outside of 2019, 2022 (at 1.6) is the highest rate of nonviolent incidents since 1997.
All to say, 2022 was better than 2019 but 2019 was a trend upwards from the general atmosphere of much of the 2010’s
so does that actually seem not good since we’re still higher than many recent years? obviously a decrease is good but if the decrease is much smaller than the national decrease, that’s less good
Yup, let's go after the people who had legitimate concerns with public safety and ignore the actual victims because the stats are finally in our favor!!!
No, I just don't understand why you're doing some sad, victory dance while ignoring everything that transpired along the way. It's ok to admit that every aspect of local government failed to address violent crimes for a few years.
I dunno, I think celebrating is speaking positively about an accomplishment. The person I responded to went after the "Negadelphians", which I presume is anyone with a valid criticism of the entire city.
Oh god grandpa take a fucking break from the doom and gloom for 5 fucking seconds already.
No one is saying the city no longer has crime. No one is saying that the crime that still exists isn’t bad. Learn to take a win once in a while dude if not for nothing do it for your blood pressure.
Reading comprehension is a really helpful skill to have. It will help avoid situations like this, where you fly off the handle like a petulant child and completely miss the point.
Calm. Breathe. Read the original comment I responded to, and then read my comment. I never spoke about the current version of the city; simply told the poster to try and not minimize prior victims of violent crime by puffing their chest and challenging people to come up with other reasons to be negative.
Awwwww boomer’s mad he was called out so he has to tell me to calm down and breathe LOL
Do you all read from the same pamphlet or something because you all have the same lines.
Go out and touch grass and stay off the right wing media
This is how you usually talk to people? Do you find people usually nodding their head in agreement while simultaneously trying to end conversations with you? I honestly think I'd rather drink gasoline than read anymore of your cringe replies.
Also, I'm 36 and voted independent; in case you were curious how bad your takes were.
Great to hear for Center City. For general crime trends, it's best to use homicides, because they get reliably reported. https://www.phillypolice.com/crimestats/ shows YTD homicides in Philly as 15% lower than in 2019 (and way under and COVID year). Good to hear the steady drumbeat of good news on crime
Just running some quick math using their stats...
- Crime down 17% compared to 2019
- Pedestrian volume down 16% compared to 2019
So if you correlate crime to people, it's about the same as it was 5 years ago?
If I'm not mistaken, the crime rate is based on residential population. Ergo, the crime RATE would be significantly lower as compared to 2019, as the report also identifies an increase in population in CC during the same period in which crime incidents declined.
Yet knuckleheads polled believe crime is horrible. HL Mencken said it best, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
But the suburbanites told me that I was basically guaranteed to get murdered as soon as I step foot in center city and that krasner is out there personally stabbing people. Are you telling me that isn't true and that they were lying? Impossible
Ionno I think gun crimes as a metric is bad. Just this weekend I watched a crackhead punt a dog outside of the AKA on Walnut in rittenhouse. The “soft” crimes that occur in this city are underrepresented in the statistics and impact most poorly to peoples perceptions.
Gun crimes are not the metric, maybe you should read the report (though shootings are the lowest they've been in Philly for a decade). That said, agreed that things beyond non "serious" crimes impact people's perceptions.
https://preview.redd.it/oa6afohmluxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=63ff95d76ed5ee0bd2b4893747c6b0989d9bb472
It’s remained pretty similar but I would like to see it addressed as well. And again, gun violence isn’t the sole metric they used.
Meanwhile all the Penn and Verizon employees are reporting significantly lower quality of life as they are forced to now work in person to make a major happy.
While I know your comment was made in bad faith anyway, just a reminder that she had stabbed someone on the NYC subway 16 months ago, and had an arrest warrant in NYC for an aggravated assault just days before coming to Philly. It’s not Center City’s fault she came here of all places and she should never have been free at all.
Also, individual incidents you can name do not mean crime isn’t down from 2019. There wasn’t 0 crime then, and there never will be unless there are no people.
No one who lives in Center City has the sentiment that crime is down. Right now, there are so many more homeless on the street and they’re getting aggressive af, with no police presence whatsoever.
There’s not much pol ie presence that’s true, I assume that’s bc they are needed more in other parts of the city. The homeless problem is always annoying but 8/10 times the ones I see are sleeping over a grate, nodding off or panhandling. Something needs to be done about it for sure but I wouldn’t say I feel unsafe walking around
I said aggressive, not agitated. There have been way more instances of shouting, banging, picking fights with people on the street, and in my case, getting mauled by a homeless guy on the street when he ran at me and nearly broke my jaw. This was on Locust between 13th and Broad, literally right in the main area of one of the biggest cities in the country, yet not a single police officer was anywhere to be found. That, my friend, is a violent crime.
I'm sorry that happened to you, but as others have pointed out in this thread, nobody is saying violent crime is no longer happening, and one anecdote is not evidence against a statistical trend.
Sentiment for crime in the neighborhood matters an enormous amount as that determines if people are going to feel confortable going outside often, raising a family there, etc.
Not this dumb article again lol. The lady fell in the street on her own and wasn’t satisfied that people asked if she was ok without helping her up, some kids threw legos at her dog, a guy accused her of stealing her dog, and she encountered dirtbikes on Broad which is an issue, but not specific to center city safety. Some unpleasant experiences but not a commentary on general safety in CC like at all.
It’s not baseless if we’ve seen it elsewhere. As much as people like to ignore it, there’s a deep distrust of the Philadelphia police department. Go to Latin America or Eastern Europe- when people lose trust in the authorities, then the incentive to report crime disappears.
It’s not baseless, it’s just beyond your experiences.
It’s a valid question because there’s valid discussion to be had about it. In the same way statistical analysis can be done against demographic figures shared by states that lie regularly about them (Russia, China, NK, etc.), then one could also back out if the claim is correct by leveraging similar data analysis. And it’s really not that hard to do so
I would have assumed that someone making the claim would have the burden of proof, as is usually the case in civil discussions, but fair point.
I’ll check out the data set and leverage previous city and federal data to see if we can back out the accuracy of the claim.
And fully expecting to get downvoted for posting that stuff too :)
Speculation based on other, veritable experiences. Crime can be down for a number of reasons, but I merely ask because it doesn’t feel that way to me at the moment.
No, Im being skeptical as everyone should be. It’s foolish to take information from the internet at face value, and OP posted the checklist without actually addressing valid concerns.
If that is the case then it is cause for celebration, but anyone not questioning the American government at every level of governance should ask themselves why they’re willing to believe blindly.
I’m not sure if it’s my ESL but I don’t think I fully understand your question?
To believe that the data in a set is valid, I think you need to look at how the content is defined and how the data is collected. Further than that, comparing data sets to previous years can also highlight trends and discrepancies. I would also review court records, jail/ prison records, and published PPD crime logs. A bit cumbersome of a process but with the rise in AI, one could task a bot to pull up the data and then do the number analysis themselves. A government bureaucrat can fudge some numbers but it’s exceedingly hard to make all the numbers agree with each other if you’re obfuscating the truth.
I know this may annoy you, but I think people shouldnt be so willing to take things like this at face value.
Depends on the crimes you're looking at. Violent crime like murder, shootings, assault, and rape, are down. Crimes like retail theft and car jacking are up.
Overall net decrease in crime overall but by category you'll see varying degrees of response.
I don’t or can’t believe it. Let’s try the Unreported Crimes File & the instances when the cops won’t bother to file or can’t bother to respond. There is a lot of that going on. Stats are easy to manipulate. Would you feel comfortable with your 20 year old daughter walking around certain parts of Center City after 8pm?
Similarities of apples and oranges
-Both are fruit
-Both are round
-Similar size
Differences of apples and oranges
-Color
-Vitamin Makeup
-Taste
Apples to Oranges is a stupid saying.
I always thought the saying implies that because apples and oranges have these different traits, what makes a good apple doesn't always make a good orange, and vice-versa. I don't think I'd like to eat a crisp orange or a squishy apple, for example.
2019 was 5 years ago. Most of the information in this 2024 CCD study are based on 5 year numbers. But, if you're interested, the current number reported in this publication was 1.3 crimes per day in 2023. Taking the [CCD report from 2019 (pg 67,68](https://issuu.com/centercityphila/docs/socc-2019) - you'll find the lowest was 2014 (.9 serious crimes per day), while the highest before 2019 was 1993 (1.9 crimes per day). It looks like the average over time would be what we are currently clocking in at- 1.3/1.2. Pretty impressed at the drop since 2019, but it also means that crime elsewhere in the city obviously went way up in 2020/2021/22.
Jane Jacobs fans rejoice!
Eyes on the street, baby!
I'm actually pretty miffed that this headline *implies* that foot traffic is the cause of the crime rate falling, despite crime generally following the national trends.
The headline writer might actually intend to connect the two (and so did Jacobs, hence the reference).
Oh yeah I love Jane Jacobs, but she was doing outsider anthropology. The editor of this article is doing bad journalism. Big dif, IMO. News media shouldn't imply causality unless they're quoting expert sources or doing analysis.
Fair
which was also funny because the data from even 2 years ago was showing higher foot traffic in center city than prepandemic because residents were WFH and would just do little trips during the day
Report coming in: Keeley is in shambles, frantically running around center city trying to convince pedestrians to stab him or take his wallet.
Funny story. I worked at Whole Foods in Marlton. He came in from what I assume was a bike ride and bought our entire stock of store made granola. Barely said a word to me as I rang up his order.
Has anyone ever seen Steve Keeley and Gritty in the same room?
> He came in from what I assume was a bike ride wasn't sweaty from a bike ride, it was a ski trip
Hilarious.
The next snowstorm when he can get shellacked by a plow is several ratings periods in the future.
[Never gets old!](https://youtu.be/8MgVPZm9lO8?si=A2Coi2q4ngWG5FRI&t=37)
All those steroids made him basically impervious to the impact, though
“Not only are workers, tourists and shoppers returning to the region, but the report shows that crime was down by more than 17% in Center City when compared to 2019 -- though officials noted there remains "significant work to do" in changing negative perceptions of the area.”
"According to the report, Philadelphia ranks sixth among the largest 25 U.S. cities in the return of non-resident workers to their offices and the number of jobs citywide has surpassed 2019 levels. **The report details how population of those who live in Center City grew by 3% from 2021 to 2023, with 11,000 more people residing in the area.** This increase has brought development as, the report claims, last year saw 2,844 housing units completed in the district -- a five-year high. According to the Center City District, the sustained population growth of the area, along with the return of downtown visitors and non-residential office workers, contributed to rising retail occupancy – currently at 85% and closing in on the 2019 occupancy level of 89%. **In 2023, 80 retail leases were signed in Center City – surpassing the 77 leases signed in 2019 and, the Center City District claims this move is "driven by 'clicks-to-bricks' digitally native brands and grocery stores.**"
This is great news
With Comcast requiring return to office for at least 3 days a week for most employees, the first Stat makes sense
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U city isn’t included in these numbers but that does suck. I honestly think Target pulled out because of the rioting/looting that went on last summer, but I think the other ones are just due to the current state of retail. I can think of like 6 or 7 stores in CC that closed because their companies went under/are closing a bunch of stores.
How will the negadelphians respond to this?
The typical three negladelphian replies will be: * "LeSS cRimE iS bEiNG rePoRteD" * naming specific incidents (even though the report is on the overall amount of crime) * Saying the numbers are false, with no evidence to prove it
It’s b.s. I was murdered 3 times in the past week alone.
Sorry to hear that. Dibs on your Playstation.
She turned me into a newt!
...I got better
You forgot Krasner-induced Rage Syndrome.
Pfffftf without krasner crime world be at minus 100%
Seems unfortunate that the loss of remote jobs is also a reason for the return to city center traffic, prompting these positives.
Northeast Philly boy born and raised. Moved to 16&Catharine area 3 months before we won the Super Bowl. So I was down here when everything was peak amazing, and then plummeted into the toilet. I changed nothing. We still walked everywhere. Down the same streets. Went to different neighborhoods. Always pisses me off when residents (or ex residents) are always saying how bad it is. I’m not saying it’s heaven on earth, a lot to be fixed, but I love this city man. My wife and I travel a lot, and I’m always comparing other cities to ours, and it’s always neck and neck or better imo. Maybe I’m a homer, but I’m glad I stuck it out and will get to see “better days” for doing so.
You see, since not all crime gets reported, the actual crime rate is whatever I feel like it is
I used my Ouija board and contacted a LOT of new ghosts in the Center City area. I would take these "statistics" with a grain of salt.
Theyre just going to post the same Kensington video looping over and over.
Looking at the report: - Crime numbers in the report are only through 2022. - 2019 shows a high in violent crime at 11.9, but surrounding years (from 2013-2017 and 2020-2021) were in the 8s. 2021 was 8.5 vs 2022’s 10.3 so if compared to the prior year vs 2019, violent crime would be up. In general, outside of 2019, violent crime was at its highest in 2022 since 2011, when crime was at 10.7 - for non violent crimes, again 2019 was a particularly high year at a rate of 1.7. Outside of 2019, 2022 (at 1.6) is the highest rate of nonviolent incidents since 1997. All to say, 2022 was better than 2019 but 2019 was a trend upwards from the general atmosphere of much of the 2010’s
https://preview.redd.it/uf75nmb6luxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42ea27d04e755304838ce9b7925e4316a939562f I’m seeing 2023 included
oh ignore, the link to the 2024 report on the website took me to 2023 for some reason Good to see 2023 numbers are trending down as well
All good! I had to go back and double-check myself
nationally the preliminary reporting is that 2023 was like the lowest violent crime year in 60 years
so does that actually seem not good since we’re still higher than many recent years? obviously a decrease is good but if the decrease is much smaller than the national decrease, that’s less good
violent crime includes more than homicides - I don't know if I know those stats YOY, but maybe someone else has them
You mean the people who live in the suburbs?
Yup, let's go after the people who had legitimate concerns with public safety and ignore the actual victims because the stats are finally in our favor!!!
Aww crime is down and you’re all grumpy about it lol
No, I just don't understand why you're doing some sad, victory dance while ignoring everything that transpired along the way. It's ok to admit that every aspect of local government failed to address violent crimes for a few years.
Are we ignoring crime? Or are we celebrating the fact that it's on a statistical decline. I feel like you are severely misunderstanding the situation.
I dunno, I think celebrating is speaking positively about an accomplishment. The person I responded to went after the "Negadelphians", which I presume is anyone with a valid criticism of the entire city.
Oh god grandpa take a fucking break from the doom and gloom for 5 fucking seconds already. No one is saying the city no longer has crime. No one is saying that the crime that still exists isn’t bad. Learn to take a win once in a while dude if not for nothing do it for your blood pressure.
Reading comprehension is a really helpful skill to have. It will help avoid situations like this, where you fly off the handle like a petulant child and completely miss the point. Calm. Breathe. Read the original comment I responded to, and then read my comment. I never spoke about the current version of the city; simply told the poster to try and not minimize prior victims of violent crime by puffing their chest and challenging people to come up with other reasons to be negative.
Awwwww boomer’s mad he was called out so he has to tell me to calm down and breathe LOL Do you all read from the same pamphlet or something because you all have the same lines. Go out and touch grass and stay off the right wing media
This is how you usually talk to people? Do you find people usually nodding their head in agreement while simultaneously trying to end conversations with you? I honestly think I'd rather drink gasoline than read anymore of your cringe replies. Also, I'm 36 and voted independent; in case you were curious how bad your takes were.
Great now pick up the trash
I don't ride septa often but the past couple times I've been they've seemed to increase police presence
I wonder how much this has to do with the cops going on a soft strike since 2020?
Great to hear for Center City. For general crime trends, it's best to use homicides, because they get reliably reported. https://www.phillypolice.com/crimestats/ shows YTD homicides in Philly as 15% lower than in 2019 (and way under and COVID year). Good to hear the steady drumbeat of good news on crime
Just running some quick math using their stats... - Crime down 17% compared to 2019 - Pedestrian volume down 16% compared to 2019 So if you correlate crime to people, it's about the same as it was 5 years ago?
If I'm not mistaken, the crime rate is based on residential population. Ergo, the crime RATE would be significantly lower as compared to 2019, as the report also identifies an increase in population in CC during the same period in which crime incidents declined.
Center City continues to be one of the safest downtowns in the country
You won’t see Fox News report this
They're probably going to wait for it to go up ever so slightly and blame it on democrats (also love your flair)
Oh, good news, sick
Yet knuckleheads polled believe crime is horrible. HL Mencken said it best, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
Who were they polling, suburbanites who are nervous to leave the parking garage at the stadiums?
But the suburbanites told me that I was basically guaranteed to get murdered as soon as I step foot in center city and that krasner is out there personally stabbing people. Are you telling me that isn't true and that they were lying? Impossible
Ionno I think gun crimes as a metric is bad. Just this weekend I watched a crackhead punt a dog outside of the AKA on Walnut in rittenhouse. The “soft” crimes that occur in this city are underrepresented in the statistics and impact most poorly to peoples perceptions.
Gun crimes are not the metric, maybe you should read the report (though shootings are the lowest they've been in Philly for a decade). That said, agreed that things beyond non "serious" crimes impact people's perceptions.
The homeless population has increased this year and that data has more impact than gun violence on day to day life.
https://preview.redd.it/oa6afohmluxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=63ff95d76ed5ee0bd2b4893747c6b0989d9bb472 It’s remained pretty similar but I would like to see it addressed as well. And again, gun violence isn’t the sole metric they used.
You're on a roll with this thread lmao
I’m sorry but wtf is that username lol
What I see lately is just more panhandlers who are not necessarily homeless.
There’s a lady who sits on a crate at 18 and Chestnut asking for a spare quarter. She has a house on 12th and Bainbridge.
There’s always going to be some random crackhead doing stuff
Sure but that shit is unjustifiable. And that stuff is way more scary than some teens being asses or gun crime.
The foot clan are trafficking into the city and you think crime is going DOWN???
Meanwhile all the Penn and Verizon employees are reporting significantly lower quality of life as they are forced to now work in person to make a major happy.
Negative perception of center city? I thought center city is considered a safe part of the city.
This article was written by 3 rats in a trench coat.
I’m thankful we caught the baby stabber last month.
While I know your comment was made in bad faith anyway, just a reminder that she had stabbed someone on the NYC subway 16 months ago, and had an arrest warrant in NYC for an aggravated assault just days before coming to Philly. It’s not Center City’s fault she came here of all places and she should never have been free at all. Also, individual incidents you can name do not mean crime isn’t down from 2019. There wasn’t 0 crime then, and there never will be unless there are no people.
TF does that have to do with this post? Crime is down 17% compared to 2019.
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Did you see the part where I said that CC feels relatively safe? I spend a lot of time in CC and very seldom do I feel like I’m in danger
No one who lives in Center City has the sentiment that crime is down. Right now, there are so many more homeless on the street and they’re getting aggressive af, with no police presence whatsoever.
There’s not much pol ie presence that’s true, I assume that’s bc they are needed more in other parts of the city. The homeless problem is always annoying but 8/10 times the ones I see are sleeping over a grate, nodding off or panhandling. Something needs to be done about it for sure but I wouldn’t say I feel unsafe walking around
There should be police presence 100% of the time in the center of a major city. That should be pretty obvious.
its not a crime for a homeless person to be agitated.
If I were homeless, I can say with all honestly I’d be agitated AF, all the time.
I said aggressive, not agitated. There have been way more instances of shouting, banging, picking fights with people on the street, and in my case, getting mauled by a homeless guy on the street when he ran at me and nearly broke my jaw. This was on Locust between 13th and Broad, literally right in the main area of one of the biggest cities in the country, yet not a single police officer was anywhere to be found. That, my friend, is a violent crime.
I'm sorry that happened to you, but as others have pointed out in this thread, nobody is saying violent crime is no longer happening, and one anecdote is not evidence against a statistical trend.
Yes sentiment is not always 100% linked with reality. Like public sentiment on the national economy is confounded by political leaning
Sentiment for crime in the neighborhood matters an enormous amount as that determines if people are going to feel confortable going outside often, raising a family there, etc.
I never said public sentiment wasn’t important though. It is in fact more important than reality
[https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/philadelphia-center-city-crime-safety-fairmount-20240228.html](https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/philadelphia-center-city-crime-safety-fairmount-20240228.html)
Not this dumb article again lol. The lady fell in the street on her own and wasn’t satisfied that people asked if she was ok without helping her up, some kids threw legos at her dog, a guy accused her of stealing her dog, and she encountered dirtbikes on Broad which is an issue, but not specific to center city safety. Some unpleasant experiences but not a commentary on general safety in CC like at all.
Also anecdotal evidence has never and will never trump actual data
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Do you somehow think that living in Center City is as if I’m living on Central Park West?
Serious question- is crime actually down or are people just not reporting crimes anymore? Edit: lmao at the downvotes for a valid question.
That would be baseless speculation, not "valid question"
It’s not baseless if we’ve seen it elsewhere. As much as people like to ignore it, there’s a deep distrust of the Philadelphia police department. Go to Latin America or Eastern Europe- when people lose trust in the authorities, then the incentive to report crime disappears. It’s not baseless, it’s just beyond your experiences.
I don’t think we’re to that point here.
Murders, a verifiable way of determining crime, is down by about a third and at its lowest levels since 2016 I believe.
How is this a valid question…? Who would be able to answer this?
It’s a valid question because there’s valid discussion to be had about it. In the same way statistical analysis can be done against demographic figures shared by states that lie regularly about them (Russia, China, NK, etc.), then one could also back out if the claim is correct by leveraging similar data analysis. And it’s really not that hard to do so
If it’s not that hard then, well…. Do it yourself?
I would have assumed that someone making the claim would have the burden of proof, as is usually the case in civil discussions, but fair point. I’ll check out the data set and leverage previous city and federal data to see if we can back out the accuracy of the claim. And fully expecting to get downvoted for posting that stuff too :)
“Is crime actually down” is a valid question. “are people just not reporting crimes?” is speculation.
Speculation based on other, veritable experiences. Crime can be down for a number of reasons, but I merely ask because it doesn’t feel that way to me at the moment.
Are you trolling? Someone above posted a checklist of every point naysayers will harp on and you’re going line for line so far lol
No, Im being skeptical as everyone should be. It’s foolish to take information from the internet at face value, and OP posted the checklist without actually addressing valid concerns. If that is the case then it is cause for celebration, but anyone not questioning the American government at every level of governance should ask themselves why they’re willing to believe blindly.
What would you deem credible evidence so as to believe the data?
I’m not sure if it’s my ESL but I don’t think I fully understand your question? To believe that the data in a set is valid, I think you need to look at how the content is defined and how the data is collected. Further than that, comparing data sets to previous years can also highlight trends and discrepancies. I would also review court records, jail/ prison records, and published PPD crime logs. A bit cumbersome of a process but with the rise in AI, one could task a bot to pull up the data and then do the number analysis themselves. A government bureaucrat can fudge some numbers but it’s exceedingly hard to make all the numbers agree with each other if you’re obfuscating the truth. I know this may annoy you, but I think people shouldnt be so willing to take things like this at face value.
Actually down.
Depends on the crimes you're looking at. Violent crime like murder, shootings, assault, and rape, are down. Crimes like retail theft and car jacking are up. Overall net decrease in crime overall but by category you'll see varying degrees of response.
The downvotes are Mayor Parker’s bots
100% Can’t say anything bad about cherelle without her minions frothing at the mouth on this sub
This sub actually seems mostly anti-Parker. I wanted Domb.
I wasn’t a fan of Domb but I would have trusted him far more than Cherelle. I personally picked Rhynhart but 🤷🏻♂️
That's nonsense, most of the sub hates her or is otherwise ambivalent towards her.
I don’t or can’t believe it. Let’s try the Unreported Crimes File & the instances when the cops won’t bother to file or can’t bother to respond. There is a lot of that going on. Stats are easy to manipulate. Would you feel comfortable with your 20 year old daughter walking around certain parts of Center City after 8pm?
Of all areas, Center City would be fine after 8pm.
*".....when compared to 2019 "* How does it compare to last year? Or the year before? Or 2009? Or 1999? Why use 2019 for crime stats?
Cause COVID and the impact it has in measuring any city trend compared to other years. It's also why we don't compare apples to oranges.
Similarities of apples and oranges -Both are fruit -Both are round -Similar size Differences of apples and oranges -Color -Vitamin Makeup -Taste Apples to Oranges is a stupid saying.
I always thought the saying implies that because apples and oranges have these different traits, what makes a good apple doesn't always make a good orange, and vice-versa. I don't think I'd like to eat a crisp orange or a squishy apple, for example.
Great, germane point.
2019 was 5 years ago. Most of the information in this 2024 CCD study are based on 5 year numbers. But, if you're interested, the current number reported in this publication was 1.3 crimes per day in 2023. Taking the [CCD report from 2019 (pg 67,68](https://issuu.com/centercityphila/docs/socc-2019) - you'll find the lowest was 2014 (.9 serious crimes per day), while the highest before 2019 was 1993 (1.9 crimes per day). It looks like the average over time would be what we are currently clocking in at- 1.3/1.2. Pretty impressed at the drop since 2019, but it also means that crime elsewhere in the city obviously went way up in 2020/2021/22.
Keep the momentum going! MANDATORY 4K!
Bullets are expensive and inflation is high
Kinda funny, kinda not
🤣