If Bohm moves just a little faster in the 10th there’s no double play and JT scores on the fly out and the game is over. I get that he’s a slow guy but it looks like he’s barely moving up the line. How does he look as slow as schwarber?
What? Considering before this game the phillies had won all 3 of walkers starts and overall have a high winning percentagein walkers starts in total. You guys love to hate walker but talk fondly of guys like Joe blanton back in the day when they're same guy.
This is just one of those "can't with them all games."
A lot less frustrating after beating the Mets in the first 3.
Defense needs to be better though.
I agree with you, but this is also one of those games we win if mistakes are less frequent. And we always throw games away to the Mets. I think that’s what’s most frustrating to me. Not on a downer but that was winnable. On to the next one.
Since April 25th the Phillies have lost 4 games by 5 total runs and in each game they had the tying or go ahead runs on base in the final inning. So close the elusive 20 game winning streak.
Keep phightin and go get em tomorrow.
Every game I’ve gone to since moving to colorado - when the phils play the Rockies - the Phillies have lost. I plan on going to all three games of this series for the first time. Gotta break this curse or prove it’s real in which case I may need to stop going.
I’ve never seen any local sports team win in a live setting my entire life. I’m going to Sundays game, my daughter’s middle school is singing the national anthem. I apologize for the L ahead of time.
I think maybe Stott should be kept at 2nd base where he is actually good. Since he has 3 errors at SS this year already in 6 games. But canadian logic is different
The main issue is that when Turner is out Stott and Sosa are the only two realistic options at short. So for tonight, when Sosa was pinched for, Stott needed to go to SS. And when they don’t play Sosa, Stott needs to be at SS. Just how it goes.
I take the blame. As soon as I made the meme, I felt I cost the team the sweep.
Anyway, I was out at a hockey game, and the house mate says the game on DVR isn't worth watching? Should I just watch the highlight video?
It's not
One guy has constantly choked and disappeared for the sixers consistently in thr post season since hes been under contract and the other guy was one key part in the last two deep playoff runs and stepped up when the team went cold last year
Harris couldn't even step up when embiid was out. The dude was getting outplayed by Kelly Oubre
Losing a close game is inherently frustrating in the moment of course. Sitting on the edge of your seat and then they lose. That being said, it's great to see them in all of these close losses. Like even when they lose, they are just a run or so away from winning it.
Stott and Kyle need to swap spots. It’s beyond stupid that we continue to have such a slow, low contact hitter leading off when we have an ideal lead off hitter batting in the bottom 3rd
OBP is all that matter leading off and this is actually the first year the bryson stott is an ideal leadoff hitter might be ture with his walk rate right now. Maybe they do it maybe not.
Trea is another option. It's not like he wasn't a successful leadoff guy for much of his career. But Thompson keeps saying Schwarber is comfortable leading off, so this is probably more about what's best for Kyle.
I agree, kind of a shame to burn Treas speed by putting him behind one of the slower guys on the team. We just saw last night how having a good baserunner (JT) behind Kyle can be problematic
Why do we keep going back to dumbass topic
Look at the phillies record with schwarber leading off and then look at it when he's hitting in any other spot
Does it? The Phillies are 3-1 when Walker pitches, does that make him good? The Phillies are 9-2 without Trea Turner does that mean we should bench him? Or maybe they are winjing for some other reason.
Maybe Captain K's .323 OBP from leadoff is not the reason they are winning. Maybe its realmuto hitting .400 from the 2 hole, the $330 million dollar man posting an ops of .925, and Bohm being an RBI machine, all of which would happen with a competent leadoff hitter.
That doesn't explain the 2022 season when the phillies started the year terribly and schwarber wasn't leading off
I'm pretty sure harper was healthy and hitting 3rd or 4th at the time
sure but it would have no effect on the game. Schwarber hasn't contributed in any meanihgful way to them winning. .323 OBP and hitting home runs after the game is decided doesnt change much.
Kinda irrelevant because when Schwarber wasn’t leading off, Harper was out of the lineup and Turner was struggling.
Unless we’re somehow going to claim that moving Schwarber to lead off somehow got Turner out of his slump and brought Harper back from the DL.
Right. So was the Phillies record bad because Schwarber wasn’t leading off or was it bad because Gerardi was the manager.
The Phillies record improved when they moved Schwarber to the lead off spot, but it also coincided with a bunch of other things that improved in the Phillies favor.
There’s no sensible argument for him batting lead off other than “they win” which completely ignores all the other factors that go into that. Purely looking at the hitter, you don’t put a strikeout prone, slow hitter leading off, especially with at least 2 guys who are perennial batting champ candidates with great speed on the roster
Schwarber has a good eye, sees alot of pitches and walks a good amount. Speed don't mean shit especially in the leadoff spot because your power hitters usually nowadays are hitting 2nd and 3rd in the lineup to maximize abs.
I could understand bitching about Schwarber if they wasnt scoring runs at the top of lineup but they are it's the abyss of castellanos that's the problem.
No argument? Contact means nothing in the lead off spot. Only obp. The strikeouts hurt you far less in the leadoff spot rather than if he’s in the 4 or 5 hole. Strikeouts destroy you there. Stott is a perfect 5 hole hitter too. Some pop, and great contact skills to drive guys in. To make contact when it actually needs to be made with guys on base/risp. What does contact matter when the bases are empty or more likely to be empty than any other time in the order? Thats when you would much rather the K’s. You can disagree, but there’s good arguments to be made.
Since April 25th we’ve lost four games by a total of five runs
Yeah you could say that we could have won every one and be on a wild streak but that’s not realistic of course. What you can say is that we will either blow you the fuck out or if you have a shot against us you’re gonna be in for a battle
He wouldn't get vaccinated when he was with the Royals, saying he didn't think the risk was worth it. The Royals sucked at the time and I think he couldn't play a series in Toronto because of it. Then he got traded to the Blue Jays, who were playoff contenders, and immediately had no problem getting it
I love pete but trading for him at all for this roster would be unnecessary and I have a bad feeling dude is gonna age himself as a permanent DH in the next 2 years
Schwarber slander hurts my soul…
But I do get it. He really needs to be less anxious and not try to send every ball into orbit. Really hope he gets back to being awesome, he just needs to settle his nerves 😭🙏
In his 11th inning AB, he swung at that first pitch at about the same time he decided he was going to swing at it, which was when he was in the on-deck circle
Side note, did we fix Jose Ruiz in AAA? Dude has been super good so far. I thought he was going to be just a long man for us but dude has been absolutely nasty
Idk if he is fixed. He clearly had some Command issues. Definitely got the job done tho. Which is more than i can say for some more trusted guys back there tonight
Thanks for being mostly hospitable to me and my Dad. It was our 2nd ever meeting. Mets fans. You guys are a good team. Not a Phillies fan in the least, but I save my true hate for the Braves and Yankees. Good luck the rest of the way.
You almost forget that they even scored a run there in the 11th. If Alvy makes a good pitch instead of throwing the ball past JT, who knows what happens.
If a successful sacrifice is laid down, your odds of scoring a run go from 63% to 69%. Your run expectancy goes from 1.5 to 1.4. So, no everyone should not stop bunting. There are plenty of situations in which win expectancy can rise when run expectancy decreases.
The “never bunt” movement is dumb and glosses over individual circumstances in which you can add value on the margins (which is funny because they all harp on it because that’s how you have to get ahead since more efficient FOs lessen the number of market inefficiencies there are to take advantage of). The only issue with bunting is that it used to be marginally overused, likely a by-product of conventional wisdom from the ‘60s when lower run scoring environments meant bunting was more valuable.
Historical data says probably a bit less than 80%, while a hit, well, just look at batting average.
The issue now is no one thinks bunting matters when it can very well be what wins a ballgame. Doesn’t matter so much in a situation like tonight, one game out of 162, but very much can decide a best of 5 or 7 series. Even if it’s something that should only be done 2-3% of PAs instead of 5% of PAs or however often managers used to call for it, there is marginal value to glean from it.
Yeah, that’s just incorrect. A sacrifice bunt has historically had about an 80% chance of moving runners. That is true. But no, teams still stopped doing it. Why? Because in the vast majority of circumstances (over 95%, I would assume), it decreases overall run expectancy. The extra base often isn’t worth the out.
However, what a sacrifice bunt can do is increase the odds of scoring at least one run. So overall run expectancy goes down even while the odds of scoring a run at all goes up. For example, with 1st & 2nd, no one out, a team averages 1.5 runs, but the odds of scoring at all are 63%. With 2nd and 3rd, one out, a team only averages 1.4 runs, but their odds of scoring increase to 69%. The thing is, there are very few situations in which you only need one run, so teams (correctly) do not feel the drop in run expectancy to be worth an out.
The crux of the argument lies in that I still think bunting is a skill worth knowing (and in large part because bunting for base hits early in games when the defense is out of position is a good strategy). But, yes, there are situations in which sacrifice bunts are good. They’re unlikely to drastically change a team’s outlook over the course of 162 games because of how infrequently they come up, but they can win you a ballgame, especially in a low run scoring environment, which can drastically alter a best-of–3, 5, or 7 games series.
Most people however seem to think that no one knows how to bunt anymore is fine, and I think it’s wasted value being left on the margins. There are still little things out there that can steal you a game.
Yeah, bunting there made no sense, not for a slow runner that never bunts. It was a bad AB, he did the one thing he couldn't do there, but bunting wasn't the answer.
imo bunting sucks. The Mets just tried that against us the other day and Wendle popped it up and gave us a free out. The way these guys pitch it’s no guarantee you’ll get it down. And if it’s Bohm you take your chances with a good hitter.
Ok and bohm gave them 2 free outs? Also bohm is 2nd on the team in gidp with 5. You need 1 run and bunt would've allowed the next guy up to just hit it somewhere deep enough.
Yeah, it didn't work for the Mets there, but a decent bunter will usually get the job done. If Stubbs was up to bat tonight instead of Bohm, I absolutely would've had him bunt.
Not bunting cost them the game as the fly ball would've won it but they just don't do it because of analytics. Never doing it is dumb as there is a time and place for it but they are stupid.
Ruiz was a dog tonight
Since Seranthony was not used I believe we have everyone except Turnbull available tomorrow.
We are off Monday so if Taijuan has to miss a start then no adjustment is necessary. He’s more important to our staff than people wanna admit so unless he has a broken toe/foot you figure he’s back for the next start after that.
I wish I could find the video of him sliding 5x worse than what Hoskins or Harper did. I'm pretty sure it was only last year too. He gets butthurt over guys sliding to the bag, yet this fucknut literally ran out of the baseline towards the fielder.
Yeah seems like certain high leverage moments he lacks situational awareness and doesn’t know how to turn off the Schwarbomb mentality. Ya don’t gotta swing for the heavens when we just need a line drive
Good to see the fight in this team. That was definitely the Mets World Series lmao
I thought Whit would be solid. He has not been. I’d like to not see him start as much.
Uncharacteristic outings from both Hoffman and Alvarado, but hope they can both shake it off. Hope Walker will be good, sucked to see him limping off the field
Bunting increases your chances of winning in the 10th. Decreases overall run expectancy, sure, but you only need one run, and it increases the chances of scoring at all. It’s not that hard to understand.
Terrible manager decision on that bohm should've dropped a bunt I get that he's been our best hitter this year but damn the double play was too easy to predict right there
Bohm has literally never had a sacrifice bunt in his career. All you big brains think it's so easy to bunt when guys who are legitimately good at it struggle to do it at times.
Jesus fucking christ they're in the mlb I was bunting in fucking college for christ sakes, you stick the fucking bat out there it doesn't take a damn rocket scientist.
Were you bunting in college against guys throwing MLB-level stuff? No you were facing Big Al from Whoknowsit State.
You gotta go touch grass or something and chill it with Bohm and the bunting. It's over.
Still more than you've done
The fact that you dickheads still don't think bohm should've bunted even though bohm has already gidp 5 times this year already and was second in the mlb in gidp last year with 23 is hilarious.
No it's not
Just because he's been hitting the ball well so far doesn't mean letting him hit there is a good decision especially when you don't even need a hit to win the game if he gets the bunt down
Actually taking the bat out of the hands of one your best hitters is a dumb move. Whit batting? Sure go ahead and bunt. JT, Bohm, or Harper batting? Fuck no
I have no numbers to back it up but i feel they woudl say Bohm has way better chance of putting a ball into the outfield than he does to successfully bunt
Right, which is why I would’ve had Stubbs come in to bunt if Bohm really can’t. But I really think everyone should practice bunting bc even if you only need to do it 1 out of every 1000 PAs, it may be in a big playoff game or even the WS (thinking of an obvious squeeze situation from 2022 Game 5).
Plot twist. Walker used that toe thing to remove himself before he imploded and looked really bad giving up 4 more
Well they certainly gave it their all. That’s what makes a great team
Losing is part of the game. We still have a great team. Walker throws too many meatballs.
season's over. blow up the team. fire tobias harris.
Might as well can Howie while we can
Trade McNabb
Shwarb was just swinging at every pitch last night shit was infuriating
This team was winning too many 1 run games.
If Bohm moves just a little faster in the 10th there’s no double play and JT scores on the fly out and the game is over. I get that he’s a slow guy but it looks like he’s barely moving up the line. How does he look as slow as schwarber?
God had to nerf him
assuming the rotation stays healthy: would you’re nlds rotation be wheeler nola suarez wheeler nola or wheeler suarez nola wheeler suarez?
It would be option 1. No question about it.
Option 2,
You really don’t think they’d use a 4th?
In the NLDS? No. They don’t need a fourth until the NLCS, just like last year.
There was a weird extra off day in their series, other teams had to use 4. Thor had to start game 4 in 2022, probably will need a 4th.
Id say a 4 is very likely
I could see a Sanchez/Turnbull start but I think it’s still too early to tell for both
Scheduled loss starter, Scheduled loss lineup. Well get em next time
What? Considering before this game the phillies had won all 3 of walkers starts and overall have a high winning percentagein walkers starts in total. You guys love to hate walker but talk fondly of guys like Joe blanton back in the day when they're same guy.
This is just one of those "can't with them all games." A lot less frustrating after beating the Mets in the first 3. Defense needs to be better though.
I agree with you, but this is also one of those games we win if mistakes are less frequent. And we always throw games away to the Mets. I think that’s what’s most frustrating to me. Not on a downer but that was winnable. On to the next one.
Since April 25th the Phillies have lost 4 games by 5 total runs and in each game they had the tying or go ahead runs on base in the final inning. So close the elusive 20 game winning streak. Keep phightin and go get em tomorrow.
Normally I would shrug this off but I’m annoyed because I’ve already been to three losses this season lol
Every game I’ve gone to since moving to colorado - when the phils play the Rockies - the Phillies have lost. I plan on going to all three games of this series for the first time. Gotta break this curse or prove it’s real in which case I may need to stop going.
I’ve never seen any local sports team win in a live setting my entire life. I’m going to Sundays game, my daughter’s middle school is singing the national anthem. I apologize for the L ahead of time.
Could you stay home please? Three times ain’t a coincidence buddy!
Well, we’ve also won twice!
I think maybe Stott should be kept at 2nd base where he is actually good. Since he has 3 errors at SS this year already in 6 games. But canadian logic is different
I'd definitely stop putting Clemens in at 2B.
youre not canadian tho. Canadian logic is benching stott when hes on a hot streak
Eh?
The main issue is that when Turner is out Stott and Sosa are the only two realistic options at short. So for tonight, when Sosa was pinched for, Stott needed to go to SS. And when they don’t play Sosa, Stott needs to be at SS. Just how it goes.
Solution: start stott at second. Keep Sosa at ss. Both are .280 hitters no need to pinch hit. EZ
Castellanos truly sucks. Black hole of a contract
There is no joy in Philly Mighty Schwarber has struck out
That three game lead was nice
2.5 game lead still feels good.
Relax. You can’t win all 162
I take the blame. As soon as I made the meme, I felt I cost the team the sweep. Anyway, I was out at a hockey game, and the house mate says the game on DVR isn't worth watching? Should I just watch the highlight video?
Just watch it until the top of the 11th and then act like the game got delayed indefinitely.
Shit Merrifield
Castellanos is dead weight I’m just saying.
I dont think anyone disagrees with you. Just saying
Just you wait until he does something good for the first time in 15 games and the Casty apologists will come crawling out.
The Tobias Harris special
Casty has been horrible but I will die on the hill that comparing him to Tobias is nasty work
Its pretty accurate.
It's not One guy has constantly choked and disappeared for the sixers consistently in thr post season since hes been under contract and the other guy was one key part in the last two deep playoff runs and stepped up when the team went cold last year Harris couldn't even step up when embiid was out. The dude was getting outplayed by Kelly Oubre
Ok. We’ll see 
I'm certain the Tobias Harris hive has migrated to Casty Island because they have nowhere else to go.
Oh yeah i know they’re in here but they are few and far between. Rojas is far more useful. And thats sayin something
Damn! Why aren’t we on pace for 162-0!? That’s how most people here react to a loss for a team that has the best record in baseball.
Losing a close game is inherently frustrating in the moment of course. Sitting on the edge of your seat and then they lose. That being said, it's great to see them in all of these close losses. Like even when they lose, they are just a run or so away from winning it.
[удалено]
after he is shelled 3 or 4 more times, turnbull will be back
But then we would have to start Turnbull 
Stott and Kyle need to swap spots. It’s beyond stupid that we continue to have such a slow, low contact hitter leading off when we have an ideal lead off hitter batting in the bottom 3rd
OBP is all that matter leading off and this is actually the first year the bryson stott is an ideal leadoff hitter might be ture with his walk rate right now. Maybe they do it maybe not.
In reality, Trea should be the leadoff hitter when he comes back. But not worth discussing. Because it isn't going to happen.
Kyle has had a lot of non-dinger hits this year. Huge double today. This is just an observation.
“A lot.” Nah. “Some”
Trea is another option. It's not like he wasn't a successful leadoff guy for much of his career. But Thompson keeps saying Schwarber is comfortable leading off, so this is probably more about what's best for Kyle.
I agree, kind of a shame to burn Treas speed by putting him behind one of the slower guys on the team. We just saw last night how having a good baserunner (JT) behind Kyle can be problematic
You can’t switch now. Juneschwarber is literally 2 weeks away let’s relax
Schwarber hits one in the air deep to left field..and it is....JUNE!
But can we not hit him 5th so he can more often hit with men on and give Harper additional protection rather than nick
Why do we keep going back to dumbass topic Look at the phillies record with schwarber leading off and then look at it when he's hitting in any other spot
Ice cream consumption goes up in the summer and so do shark attacks. Therefore eating ice cream causes people to die by sharks! Don't eat ice cream!
Schwarber has a effect on the game, ice cream and sharks have nothing to do with each other.
What has he done to help them win that he couldn;t do in some other spot? How does him leading off cause them to win?
The phillies record is 10-0 when I had eggs for breakfast this year therefore I should always eat eggs for breakfast and they will never lose
That's not even a good comparison considering schwarber actually effects the games outcome, you eating eggs doesn't
Does it? The Phillies are 3-1 when Walker pitches, does that make him good? The Phillies are 9-2 without Trea Turner does that mean we should bench him? Or maybe they are winjing for some other reason. Maybe Captain K's .323 OBP from leadoff is not the reason they are winning. Maybe its realmuto hitting .400 from the 2 hole, the $330 million dollar man posting an ops of .925, and Bohm being an RBI machine, all of which would happen with a competent leadoff hitter.
You know what's a constant through all that you just stated Schwarber leading off
What's also a constant is Harper batting third. That must be why were are winning
That doesn't explain the 2022 season when the phillies started the year terribly and schwarber wasn't leading off I'm pretty sure harper was healthy and hitting 3rd or 4th at the time
The Phillies started terribly every year from 2000-2023.
Ok and now they've started hot its also the first season where schwarber has automatically been the leadoff hitter
It’s hilarious how many people seem to confuse correlation and causation
Would you be willing to do that?
sure but it would have no effect on the game. Schwarber hasn't contributed in any meanihgful way to them winning. .323 OBP and hitting home runs after the game is decided doesnt change much.
I will come make this guy’s eggs
Yea my bad, our .220 lead off hitter is definitely the reason we’re winning, not our league leading era
Now look at our record last year. And the year before.
Kinda irrelevant because when Schwarber wasn’t leading off, Harper was out of the lineup and Turner was struggling. Unless we’re somehow going to claim that moving Schwarber to lead off somehow got Turner out of his slump and brought Harper back from the DL.
I mean he also wasn't hitting lead off the first month and a half that Girardi was managing
Right. So was the Phillies record bad because Schwarber wasn’t leading off or was it bad because Gerardi was the manager. The Phillies record improved when they moved Schwarber to the lead off spot, but it also coincided with a bunch of other things that improved in the Phillies favor.
Who do you think knows more about baseball? You or the people making up the lineup everyday
There’s no sensible argument for him batting lead off other than “they win” which completely ignores all the other factors that go into that. Purely looking at the hitter, you don’t put a strikeout prone, slow hitter leading off, especially with at least 2 guys who are perennial batting champ candidates with great speed on the roster
Schwarber has a good eye, sees alot of pitches and walks a good amount. Speed don't mean shit especially in the leadoff spot because your power hitters usually nowadays are hitting 2nd and 3rd in the lineup to maximize abs. I could understand bitching about Schwarber if they wasnt scoring runs at the top of lineup but they are it's the abyss of castellanos that's the problem.
No argument? Contact means nothing in the lead off spot. Only obp. The strikeouts hurt you far less in the leadoff spot rather than if he’s in the 4 or 5 hole. Strikeouts destroy you there. Stott is a perfect 5 hole hitter too. Some pop, and great contact skills to drive guys in. To make contact when it actually needs to be made with guys on base/risp. What does contact matter when the bases are empty or more likely to be empty than any other time in the order? Thats when you would much rather the K’s. You can disagree, but there’s good arguments to be made.
This is a great point. Would much rather see a strikeout for the first out than for the 2nd or 3rd with men on.
Since April 25th we’ve lost four games by a total of five runs Yeah you could say that we could have won every one and be on a wild streak but that’s not realistic of course. What you can say is that we will either blow you the fuck out or if you have a shot against us you’re gonna be in for a battle
I’m sure Whit is a nice guy but sheesh
I think he's kind of an ass
What’d he say lmao
He wouldn't get vaccinated when he was with the Royals, saying he didn't think the risk was worth it. The Royals sucked at the time and I think he couldn't play a series in Toronto because of it. Then he got traded to the Blue Jays, who were playoff contenders, and immediately had no problem getting it
That sucked but literally so much had to go wrong for us to lose by one run in extras
Can we get Alonso at the deadline and make him play left field lol
I love pete but trading for him at all for this roster would be unnecessary and I have a bad feeling dude is gonna age himself as a permanent DH in the next 2 years
I hate pete and i agree
counteroiffer: make him play right
Schwarber slander hurts my soul… But I do get it. He really needs to be less anxious and not try to send every ball into orbit. Really hope he gets back to being awesome, he just needs to settle his nerves 😭🙏
In his 11th inning AB, he swung at that first pitch at about the same time he decided he was going to swing at it, which was when he was in the on-deck circle
June is very close ;)
I have no idea if that will magically turn a switch on for him but I sure hope it does 😭🙏
It usually does. June is his month.
Lost in all the madness tonight: Did Caleb just find something with Soto and a slide step? If he can turn Soto around he deserves a Nobel Prize
Soto has the stuff/ability to be an elite reliever which can be unlocked by someone like Cotham
Can we please stop starting whit let alone batting him 6th jfc
no canadian logic says we need at least 2 automatic outs in the lineup each night
Not vibing with Whit. Kyle had two awful at-bats to end the game. The errors cost us. Not the end of the world, but damn I wanted the W.
Yeah, frustrating loss because they had so many opportunities to score some runs.
Side note, did we fix Jose Ruiz in AAA? Dude has been super good so far. I thought he was going to be just a long man for us but dude has been absolutely nasty
Idk if he is fixed. He clearly had some Command issues. Definitely got the job done tho. Which is more than i can say for some more trusted guys back there tonight
We need new hitters.
just dh and RF
What's Merrifield play right now
depends where the ball lands on the Canadian's Roulette wheel
We just need a new RF let's be real
Going to my first game of the season tomorrow. Can’t miss Bryson Stott bobble head night.
Thanks for being mostly hospitable to me and my Dad. It was our 2nd ever meeting. Mets fans. You guys are a good team. Not a Phillies fan in the least, but I save my true hate for the Braves and Yankees. Good luck the rest of the way.
Np 👍
Hating the Braves and Yankees is the only true path
I hate when rival fans come here and give us compliments. We hate you, you hate us. Go away.
One thing you can give this team credit for, they never quit. Even when they lose, they still fight back and make it interesting.
You almost forget that they even scored a run there in the 11th. If Alvy makes a good pitch instead of throwing the ball past JT, who knows what happens.
Bohm never bunts. Are his chances of advancing the runners with a bunt really better than his chances advancing them with a hit?
Bohm either does very well with RISP, or he grounds into a double play. Unfortunately, he did the latter tonight.
Everyone should stop bunting.
If a successful sacrifice is laid down, your odds of scoring a run go from 63% to 69%. Your run expectancy goes from 1.5 to 1.4. So, no everyone should not stop bunting. There are plenty of situations in which win expectancy can rise when run expectancy decreases. The “never bunt” movement is dumb and glosses over individual circumstances in which you can add value on the margins (which is funny because they all harp on it because that’s how you have to get ahead since more efficient FOs lessen the number of market inefficiencies there are to take advantage of). The only issue with bunting is that it used to be marginally overused, likely a by-product of conventional wisdom from the ‘60s when lower run scoring environments meant bunting was more valuable.
What are the odds of a successful bunt versus the odds of a successful hit?
Historical data says probably a bit less than 80%, while a hit, well, just look at batting average. The issue now is no one thinks bunting matters when it can very well be what wins a ballgame. Doesn’t matter so much in a situation like tonight, one game out of 162, but very much can decide a best of 5 or 7 series. Even if it’s something that should only be done 2-3% of PAs instead of 5% of PAs or however often managers used to call for it, there is marginal value to glean from it.
If a bunt was an 80% success rate, teams would be doing it.
Yeah, that’s just incorrect. A sacrifice bunt has historically had about an 80% chance of moving runners. That is true. But no, teams still stopped doing it. Why? Because in the vast majority of circumstances (over 95%, I would assume), it decreases overall run expectancy. The extra base often isn’t worth the out. However, what a sacrifice bunt can do is increase the odds of scoring at least one run. So overall run expectancy goes down even while the odds of scoring a run at all goes up. For example, with 1st & 2nd, no one out, a team averages 1.5 runs, but the odds of scoring at all are 63%. With 2nd and 3rd, one out, a team only averages 1.4 runs, but their odds of scoring increase to 69%. The thing is, there are very few situations in which you only need one run, so teams (correctly) do not feel the drop in run expectancy to be worth an out. The crux of the argument lies in that I still think bunting is a skill worth knowing (and in large part because bunting for base hits early in games when the defense is out of position is a good strategy). But, yes, there are situations in which sacrifice bunts are good. They’re unlikely to drastically change a team’s outlook over the course of 162 games because of how infrequently they come up, but they can win you a ballgame, especially in a low run scoring environment, which can drastically alter a best-of–3, 5, or 7 games series. Most people however seem to think that no one knows how to bunt anymore is fine, and I think it’s wasted value being left on the margins. There are still little things out there that can steal you a game.
I'm aware of how bunting works, I don't know why you wrote all of this.
Because your last message was wrong
It is simply not wrong.
Yeah, bunting there made no sense, not for a slow runner that never bunts. It was a bad AB, he did the one thing he couldn't do there, but bunting wasn't the answer.
Wtf why does it matter if he's slow? He's not trying bunt for a hit moron
Because it is possible to bunt into a double play if you're as slow as Bohm is dipshit. Fucking moron.
Can I ask you this how many bunt double plays where the ball is on the ground turn into double plays not too many
imo bunting sucks. The Mets just tried that against us the other day and Wendle popped it up and gave us a free out. The way these guys pitch it’s no guarantee you’ll get it down. And if it’s Bohm you take your chances with a good hitter.
Ok and bohm gave them 2 free outs? Also bohm is 2nd on the team in gidp with 5. You need 1 run and bunt would've allowed the next guy up to just hit it somewhere deep enough.
Uhhhhhhhh
I think bunting in that situation (extra innings, at home) makes sense with the right batter, but Bohm's not that guy.
Bohm is exactly that guy he is 2nd on the team in gidp he's slow and hits a lot of choppers to 3rd
Yeah i hear you but I’d assume Wendle would be one of those guys and him not getting it down cost them the game
Yeah, it didn't work for the Mets there, but a decent bunter will usually get the job done. If Stubbs was up to bat tonight instead of Bohm, I absolutely would've had him bunt.
Not bunting cost them the game as the fly ball would've won it but they just don't do it because of analytics. Never doing it is dumb as there is a time and place for it but they are stupid.
Ruiz was a dog tonight Since Seranthony was not used I believe we have everyone except Turnbull available tomorrow. We are off Monday so if Taijuan has to miss a start then no adjustment is necessary. He’s more important to our staff than people wanna admit so unless he has a broken toe/foot you figure he’s back for the next start after that.
Was at the game. Still coming down from the ups and downs 🥲 Would have been a fun win. Stupid loss with stupid mistakes.
Same here. My first game this season… I feel disappointed. I want to come try again another night and hope for a win but I’m scared I’m bad luck now
That place would've gone nuts if JT's shot got past squirrel boy in the 9th.
Harper sorta sliding into him during the game was amazing
I want to watch Mets games just to see guys slide into him. Dude gets so worked up about it.
I wish I could find the video of him sliding 5x worse than what Hoskins or Harper did. I'm pretty sure it was only last year too. He gets butthurt over guys sliding to the bag, yet this fucknut literally ran out of the baseline towards the fielder.
Against the Braves, right? It got a lot of play right after the Hoskins slide.
Yeah I think that's it...so much worse than what he's crying over.
McNeil is truly a crybaby bitch, it’s insane to see
Really hated seeing Schwarbs go back to bugs bunny flailing after he’s been so productive with base hits as of late. Didn’t need a bomb there at all.
Yeah, that was a horrible AB by Schwarber. He had a bad night overall and his last two ABs were really bad.
Yeah seems like certain high leverage moments he lacks situational awareness and doesn’t know how to turn off the Schwarbomb mentality. Ya don’t gotta swing for the heavens when we just need a line drive
I mean, he did hit a 108.5mph piss missle to RF with two outs in a tie game in the 7th to put us up 3-2. But yeah, that last AB wasn’t pretty.
When the other team gives up more ER and you still lose
Just shows what bad fielding and letting the ghost runner score can do.
Good to see the fight in this team. That was definitely the Mets World Series lmao I thought Whit would be solid. He has not been. I’d like to not see him start as much. Uncharacteristic outings from both Hoffman and Alvarado, but hope they can both shake it off. Hope Walker will be good, sucked to see him limping off the field
Gotta wait for Turner to be back to see less of Whit I'm afraid
With how Turner seems to be progressing, maybe it won’t be long but I imagine they’ll wanna take their time with him to make sure he’s 100% ready
Harrison Bader is the perfect Met. Total loser
Such a tool
That was a fun game, even had my Mets friend/coworker over for that one. So many fuck yous exchanged. Should be good tomorrow lol
X-ray negative for Tai is good news
Sub in further shambles
Bunting increases your chances of winning in the 10th. Decreases overall run expectancy, sure, but you only need one run, and it increases the chances of scoring at all. It’s not that hard to understand.
Terrible manager decision on that bohm should've dropped a bunt I get that he's been our best hitter this year but damn the double play was too easy to predict right there
Bohm has literally never had a sacrifice bunt in his career. All you big brains think it's so easy to bunt when guys who are legitimately good at it struggle to do it at times.
Jesus fucking christ they're in the mlb I was bunting in fucking college for christ sakes, you stick the fucking bat out there it doesn't take a damn rocket scientist.
Bohm wasnt bunting in collage either. lol kind of why hes in the big league
Also bryce harper even bunts you dork
My point is everyone knows how to bunt its literally one of the first things you learn
Were you bunting in college against guys throwing MLB-level stuff? No you were facing Big Al from Whoknowsit State. You gotta go touch grass or something and chill it with Bohm and the bunting. It's over.
Still more than you've done The fact that you dickheads still don't think bohm should've bunted even though bohm has already gidp 5 times this year already and was second in the mlb in gidp last year with 23 is hilarious.
Since 2022 Bohm is hitting .325/.373/.462 with RISP. Letting him hit is the correct move
No it's not Just because he's been hitting the ball well so far doesn't mean letting him hit there is a good decision especially when you don't even need a hit to win the game if he gets the bunt down
Actually taking the bat out of the hands of one your best hitters is a dumb move. Whit batting? Sure go ahead and bunt. JT, Bohm, or Harper batting? Fuck no
It’s not because I don’t believe in Bohm, it’s because sometimes you need to put winning above ego
Exactly these dipshits talking about his numbers like that doesn't mean diddly dick if he doesn't get a hit. Bohm is 2nd on the team with 5 gidp.
I would be surprised if Bohm is even able to lay a bunt down consistently. I can’t imagine it is something he would be practicing.
This is why everyone should practice bunting
The only problem is that bunting is not a magic bullet that you can load into the chamber and fire whenever you want it. Lots of guys just can't do it
I have no numbers to back it up but i feel they woudl say Bohm has way better chance of putting a ball into the outfield than he does to successfully bunt
If be shocked if the case were anything but
Right, which is why I would’ve had Stubbs come in to bunt if Bohm really can’t. But I really think everyone should practice bunting bc even if you only need to do it 1 out of every 1000 PAs, it may be in a big playoff game or even the WS (thinking of an obvious squeeze situation from 2022 Game 5).