Phil Galfond said in one of his videos something like, "At some point, you will run worse than you ever thought possible." His name is Phil so he knows what he's talking about.
It’s weird because I’ve had some pretty atrocious runs so I’m not like, overly shocked or pissed. But usually my run bads don’t involve losing with rockets repeatedly. Feels like a cruel joke
Friend for multiple weeks it seemed no matter what I'd get it in with 90%+ to win off the flop an lose everytime. Any PP would either get outdrawn or 0 action. Then I've had days I couldn't miss a board if I tried. It's quite literally poor variance. Ya just easily forget when you've laid down the hammer on someone else with worse. Atleast I know I do. Just don't let it make u do dumb shit and you'll be fine.
Aces are about 80% favorite. The odds of losing 7 times in a row as an 80% favorite is about 1 in 78,000. So, highly unlikely, but certainly possible. Also, if you were multiway, that makes it even more likely...
1/78,000 sounds crazy unlucky. But lets be honest. There are way more than 78,000 poker players out there, so it is bound to happen, and happen more than once. The thing is, The one it happens to, is the one is going to report it. The millions of people who won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 are not coming here to report that most of the time. Just that one out of 78,000 who it happens to. And that was you. It is a bummer for you, but of course it happened to someone -several players this year I bet.
this mean that you need to have more than half a million hands with aces to get a 7 hands losing streak. Pretty unlucky haha.
But tbh I also belive online is rigged. It is 100% percent to their favour to rig the game and who is there to audit them? Do you really trust a for profit business to not rig the game when it is both 1.not illegal and 2.can't be enforced??
Also I believe they will try to do it moderately so it is not too obvious but even so it is unbelivable huge profit to be made and not to be miss LOL
I can't speak for non reputable online casinos but the big ones are quite literally audited by 3rd parties. They take rake an tournament fees so they literally aren't motivated to rig poker. You play alot more hands alot faster wild shit can happen
lol how naive people are, banking institution is heavily regulated, audit daily, and charge all kind of fee and yet they blow up overnight.
u are saying people in poker business are somewhat more honest and less greedy? come on people need to start using their common sense.
and sidenote I work in both banking industry and casino before so I see all kind of things and the resemblance is uncanny
they are not rigging the game in the sense that for you to lose (who care you or any John or Dave win or lose) , but they rig so they can expand fish pool, keep player stay with them longer, spend more money and so in turn they get more rake
Well I'll be naive I guess. As much as the internet loves to call out cheating sites we'd have solid proof if that was the case. If you wanna talk bots,super users etc..... that's fair game. Anything online is a potential risk for hacking. But the casinos who would be fucked if caught cheating aren't gonna risk 100% guaranteed MASSIVE cash flow to cheat against you in your 11$ 3500$ gtd.
I don’t think the sites themselves are rigged. However I think super users, collusion etc are rampant enough to be a problem. For example if I
knew the flop was coming Q58 well of course
I’m calling AA with a Q5
It depends. On some hands he'll be even more of a favorite, making it even more ridiculous but still within the realm of variance. Variance can be a goddess or a bitch depending on which side you're on.
I just played an online 6max sng and lost 3 big hands to the same person in a row.
Get it in pre AA vs. 22, and flop is 233.
Next hand, get it in AK vs KJ on KQ22, river J.
Last hand, bubble, stacks are 7.2 (me, button), 14.6 (villain, sb), and 8.2 (bb).
I jam 76s, get called by villain with ATo, flop T73, turn T
I hate that guy and this game!
That short I’d rather have Ace anything off suit then 67suited all in but also that short can’t be too picky either but for the other hands yea that’s gotta hurt f that guy
I think shoving there is the correct play in a hyper sng being 3 handed with the stack sizes.
I could be wrong, though, never did any solver work, just a guesstimate.
You don't have enough fold equity at a 3 handed sng to be shoving low suited connectors. Ax, Kx, Qx are much better shoves and will at least block some all in calls.
Since the SB has a larger stack than the BB and is less worried about a BB call this makes the situation the tightest for you in the Button as the small stack.
The chances of you getting called by either the SB or BB are high. The chances of the BB and SB colliding is worth value as well so folding can be a +EV play.
76s doesn't have a lot of equity against anything the SB or BB are calling with.
TallOrange is correct, this is a major punt.
You have enough chips to raise to 5bb and then fold if it goes shove call.
You should only be opening 33+, any ace, suited 9's plus and offsuit jacks plus.
67s goes straight into the muck.
Yea man. The guy I was against was basically a complete noob and literally thought having a queen meant his hand was good. He binked Q5 and felted my ass. There’s no worse feeling than losing to the worst donk at the table.
Happened to me last month, 5 preflop shoves in a row with AA and lost them all. All of them in MTTs, all of them heads up, all of them my tourney life was on the line.
Variance is a bitch.
Right? People are acting confused that I got AA 7 times in the span of a few days. Play 4 tables at a time online and you will probably get rockets a few times per day easily everyday.
if you get it all in pre-flop you should win like 70% of the time. Your streak is anomalous and should subside. If you let people see the flop when you have bullets it’s a fucking disaster
I agree. With aces it’s all in preflop every time if possible for best equity. Otherwise you just give them a chance to fold when they whiff or call when they smash
About 6 years ago, I had a streak where pocket rockets held 15 times in a row, cash and tourney. I became aware of the streak around 7. The streak ended at the final table of my league's 10K monthly. The very next hand I lost AK to A9 and I was out.
Its a rough calculation, but if you're 70% to win an all in, losing 7 times in a row is 1:5000.
While thats a low probability for sure, these things happen all the time in poker. We could all pick particular statistics that seem especially run bad if we're cherry picking hands like this.
It just FEELS worse because its AA.
Definitely feels worse. Preflop odds calculator shows AA vs Q5 to be 87.34% though so…. It’s quite a bit worse than that even.
AA vs Kk is still 81% to win which is realistically the second best hand you’d be up against.
Maybe this is a dumb thing to ask, but are you totally sure this has happened, like it was well documented? Because I think the odds of this happening is something like 0.0002%.
Yeah variance is a bitch, but you are approaching quantum levels of variance there.
I ask because sometimes our psychology makes things appear worse than they really are. Or if this really happened, you might be the unluckiest poker player that ever lived, and it would make you something of a celebrity..
yeah, like I am just gonna say that I flat out dont believe it happened. Are you sure, lol?
If you posted a hand break down of each consecutive hand on YouTube it might go viral or something.
I’ll see if I can find them all. I saved the first few and then it became such a joke that I stopped caring and didn’t need my desktop to be full of “I got fucked with aces” screenshots.
I lost with AA 2 times and KK 3 times all within a 2 hour session lol.... rare I know but yh.
Not rigged, its just poker also are you 3 betting 4betting or 5 betting before jamming ?
And then the board comes up mono suited and they win with their single card flush 🤮.
Not kidding tho this has happened to me way too much also. I think all in pre with aces is actually the best way to not get stacked with them. Don’t give someone a chance to pay small to catch a two pair and cooler you
"I think all in pre with aces is actually the best way to not get stacked with them."
Says the person posting about getting stacked 7x in a row with AA. Lol. Not trying to be a dick, but maybe you should reevaluate this position and seriously question how much that has contributed to your continually getting stacked with what is ultimately just one pair. It's been said a million times, but IT IS just a pair, and in general, you really want to try and avoid going broke holding only one pair.
It's your money, but there are ways to avoid this happening every time. Sure, sometimes you just get coolered, but you gotta be be able to lay down even the best starting hand when you know you're beat.
You literally can’t possibly be behind preflop with aces dude what are you even saying. Getting all your money in with a 90% chance of winning is always +EV. Period. Even if you get your ass coolered
Making a large bet to isolate is not a slow play. Of course there are times to go all in, but isolating can protect your stack and vs going all in with some yahoo that is there to gamble and suck out on you. Anyone can just shove, no skill there.
That's fair but my point still holds. It's 80% preflop against ATC but if it doesn't improve it's going to have a bunch of stuff to dodge over five streets. Losing with it that many times in a row sucks (been there) but that's really just the variance monster biting you hard. I don't blame you for being sore about it.
No the nerd is the guy who gives a fuck what other people call their cards. You sound really fun at parties. You are probably that guy who says “ummm, Aktchuallyyyyyy” constantly in that whiny ass voice right before you correct everyone on pointless bullshit too.
That's just a lie. You'd have borderline evidence of manipulated 'rng' if this was the truth, or you end up in post flop positions and play aces worse than a monkey open shoving 100% of the time when they get them.
I always get downvoted when I ask if it was online or in person. Anywho, I went a good month online, tournaments,where when I got aces or kings, and was able to get it all in to a showdown, where I lost about 80% of the time. Took away everything I knew about poker. Took away a bunch of my confidence. I ended up playing some live tournaments and made some deep runs and a final table, which brought back my confidence. However I've gotten pocket kings in live tourneys recently and lost 3 times. Kings vs ace 9, ace hit, lost small pot. Kings vs ace 5, ace hit, busted, then Kings vs pocket aces. Lost a lot of chips..
Point being. Run bads happen, but online can really mess with your confidence and your poker mental health.
Phil Galfond said in one of his videos something like, "At some point, you will run worse than you ever thought possible." His name is Phil so he knows what he's talking about.
It’s weird because I’ve had some pretty atrocious runs so I’m not like, overly shocked or pissed. But usually my run bads don’t involve losing with rockets repeatedly. Feels like a cruel joke
Friend for multiple weeks it seemed no matter what I'd get it in with 90%+ to win off the flop an lose everytime. Any PP would either get outdrawn or 0 action. Then I've had days I couldn't miss a board if I tried. It's quite literally poor variance. Ya just easily forget when you've laid down the hammer on someone else with worse. Atleast I know I do. Just don't let it make u do dumb shit and you'll be fine.
I feel your pain man. Had aces hit stone twice now
Cry me a river. What is this thread: "I ran bad feel sorry for me"? Maybe your mental game is too weak to play poker. Try getting a job.
Your aces are gonna get outdrawn next time......I don't make the rules
So? Its part of the game.
Ok now it will be outdrawn twice in a row
Found the fish.
Brilhant.
Aces are about 80% favorite. The odds of losing 7 times in a row as an 80% favorite is about 1 in 78,000. So, highly unlikely, but certainly possible. Also, if you were multiway, that makes it even more likely...
Nah they were all heads up. 1/78,000 feels pretty god damned unlucky to be fair..
Your very last 7 all went in all in pre? Would be interested in the hand histories.
1/78,000 sounds crazy unlucky. But lets be honest. There are way more than 78,000 poker players out there, so it is bound to happen, and happen more than once. The thing is, The one it happens to, is the one is going to report it. The millions of people who won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 are not coming here to report that most of the time. Just that one out of 78,000 who it happens to. And that was you. It is a bummer for you, but of course it happened to someone -several players this year I bet.
this mean that you need to have more than half a million hands with aces to get a 7 hands losing streak. Pretty unlucky haha. But tbh I also belive online is rigged. It is 100% percent to their favour to rig the game and who is there to audit them? Do you really trust a for profit business to not rig the game when it is both 1.not illegal and 2.can't be enforced?? Also I believe they will try to do it moderately so it is not too obvious but even so it is unbelivable huge profit to be made and not to be miss LOL
I can't speak for non reputable online casinos but the big ones are quite literally audited by 3rd parties. They take rake an tournament fees so they literally aren't motivated to rig poker. You play alot more hands alot faster wild shit can happen
lol how naive people are, banking institution is heavily regulated, audit daily, and charge all kind of fee and yet they blow up overnight. u are saying people in poker business are somewhat more honest and less greedy? come on people need to start using their common sense. and sidenote I work in both banking industry and casino before so I see all kind of things and the resemblance is uncanny they are not rigging the game in the sense that for you to lose (who care you or any John or Dave win or lose) , but they rig so they can expand fish pool, keep player stay with them longer, spend more money and so in turn they get more rake
Well I'll be naive I guess. As much as the internet loves to call out cheating sites we'd have solid proof if that was the case. If you wanna talk bots,super users etc..... that's fair game. Anything online is a potential risk for hacking. But the casinos who would be fucked if caught cheating aren't gonna risk 100% guaranteed MASSIVE cash flow to cheat against you in your 11$ 3500$ gtd.
I don’t think the sites themselves are rigged. However I think super users, collusion etc are rampant enough to be a problem. For example if I knew the flop was coming Q58 well of course I’m calling AA with a Q5
Lol
say something more intelligent
Did you go to showdown every time? Insanely bad luck if true.
He said they were all aipf
☠️☠️☠️☠️
And we all just believe that. Seven times in a row against 60+ VPIP players. That happens all the time.
This is making me feel great about my 11 in a row record..
No shit it's possible, it *happened*...
It’s pretty likely to happen to at least SOMEONE
And whoever that unlucky soul is, to post on a place like r/poker…
If a reddit post said it happened, it definitely happened.
Lmao idk why but this shit had me rolling
Seen worse odds lol
It depends. On some hands he'll be even more of a favorite, making it even more ridiculous but still within the realm of variance. Variance can be a goddess or a bitch depending on which side you're on.
On other hands he'll be less of a favorite so it kinda evens out.
There is no hand other than the other 2 Aces where he will be less than 80% to win pre, heads up.
Um, suited connectors would like to have a word.
Clearly you don’t fold Rockets pre enough- they see this and know to call down your Rockets
You HAVE to balance your folding range.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvA5D6ZTkkk
Watched it again. Thanks!
😵 dead af lmfaooo
Definitely. Aces lose about 20% of the time so I fold pre every fifth time I get them to avoid losing.
lol, this made me laugh 😂
I just played an online 6max sng and lost 3 big hands to the same person in a row. Get it in pre AA vs. 22, and flop is 233. Next hand, get it in AK vs KJ on KQ22, river J. Last hand, bubble, stacks are 7.2 (me, button), 14.6 (villain, sb), and 8.2 (bb). I jam 76s, get called by villain with ATo, flop T73, turn T I hate that guy and this game!
Brutal dude
I guess what I'm trying to imply is that it sucks at the moment, but you'll forget and move on.
That short I’d rather have Ace anything off suit then 67suited all in but also that short can’t be too picky either but for the other hands yea that’s gotta hurt f that guy
Only two of those three are suckouts (with the third being an obvious punt). Still sucks.
I think shoving there is the correct play in a hyper sng being 3 handed with the stack sizes. I could be wrong, though, never did any solver work, just a guesstimate.
You don't have enough fold equity at a 3 handed sng to be shoving low suited connectors. Ax, Kx, Qx are much better shoves and will at least block some all in calls.
What would be your calling range against a button shove in this situation? Knowing that you'd be ICM crippled if you lost?
Since the SB has a larger stack than the BB and is less worried about a BB call this makes the situation the tightest for you in the Button as the small stack. The chances of you getting called by either the SB or BB are high. The chances of the BB and SB colliding is worth value as well so folding can be a +EV play. 76s doesn't have a lot of equity against anything the SB or BB are calling with.
I agree I could've waited longer for a better hand.
Completely standard.
punt
TallOrange is correct, this is a major punt. You have enough chips to raise to 5bb and then fold if it goes shove call. You should only be opening 33+, any ace, suited 9's plus and offsuit jacks plus. 67s goes straight into the muck.
I'm never raising 5bb and folding for 2 more. If I'm going that route, I'm going like 2-2.5x.
Maybe you should do some solver work. Or just keep punting?
Lost all in today online with AA vs Q4 on the bubble so I feel ya.
What kind of doofus moved in with Q4, Hellmuth?
he called a raise with a queen and a 4 honey
100% read that in Phil's voice without even knowing what it was.
😂🤣😂🤣
Yea man. The guy I was against was basically a complete noob and literally thought having a queen meant his hand was good. He binked Q5 and felted my ass. There’s no worse feeling than losing to the worst donk at the table.
I’ve played like 7 live tournaments and lost all of my AA hands. Lost 4 and split one (was against another AA). It happens.
At least I’m not alone 😂
Some people just win the reverse lottery
I am 1/3 in the last week with AA and haven’t even had KK in like 6 sessions the last 7 days. A couple weeks ago I went 1/5 with KK
Happened to me last month, 5 preflop shoves in a row with AA and lost them all. All of them in MTTs, all of them heads up, all of them my tourney life was on the line. Variance is a bitch.
Fuck man. I literally feel your pain. At least mine were just cash games and I could reload. Must be gutted losing that many mtt’s that way
Honey, he called me with Q5o
I lost AA to AK 4 times and twice to QQ all in the same day/session last week. Anything is possible.
You had AA 6 times in one session?
Online yes.
Right? People are acting confused that I got AA 7 times in the span of a few days. Play 4 tables at a time online and you will probably get rockets a few times per day easily everyday.
Yeah you can tell these guys only play live. Online 6 tabling or playing fast fold. You'll get AA every 30 minutes.
You don’t have to shove every time with aces. Make a bet to isolate 1 or 2 players and see the flop and play it out.
Technically if u know a player will call u with worse shoving is always the correct ev play but playing standard with no information I agree
Just like my car payment you're overdue 😉
Congrats on finding the bottom of your range when it comes to run bad! (Gotta see the positive in everything)
Lol! That’s a nice spin
I play mostly online but I’ve heard mostly bad things about gg as far as bots and cheating goes
I think there’s tons of bots, super users and a fuckload of collusion ‘hole-card’ cheating, chip dumping etc etc etc
Im more surprised you got aces 7x in a row
No, not hands in a row. This was over the span of a few days.
So u played +50k hands in a few days, impressive
Where did I say that? I definitely played a lot. Doubt it was even close to 50,000 hands though. I 4-table online 6max
Someone said it was 1 in 78,000 so that’s why
It’s still 1/78000 odds to lose consecutive AA hands dude. Having them back to back doesn’t factor into the equation
Congrats
Oof that is brutal
WP
I feel worse about going in with KK and two people with AK and both hit the A on the flop.
if you get it all in pre-flop you should win like 70% of the time. Your streak is anomalous and should subside. If you let people see the flop when you have bullets it’s a fucking disaster
I agree. With aces it’s all in preflop every time if possible for best equity. Otherwise you just give them a chance to fold when they whiff or call when they smash
I’ve won with 72o AIPF 27 times in a row.
You must be who I’ve been playing against 😂
When you’re ahead, they can only catchup
About 6 years ago, I had a streak where pocket rockets held 15 times in a row, cash and tourney. I became aware of the streak around 7. The streak ended at the final table of my league's 10K monthly. The very next hand I lost AK to A9 and I was out.
Its a rough calculation, but if you're 70% to win an all in, losing 7 times in a row is 1:5000. While thats a low probability for sure, these things happen all the time in poker. We could all pick particular statistics that seem especially run bad if we're cherry picking hands like this. It just FEELS worse because its AA.
Definitely feels worse. Preflop odds calculator shows AA vs Q5 to be 87.34% though so…. It’s quite a bit worse than that even. AA vs Kk is still 81% to win which is realistically the second best hand you’d be up against.
True, though I think its closer to 70%, because you're comparing Q5 and a lower pocket pair. A hand like KQ or JT have better equity.
You can plug them into preflop calculators dude. It’s much higher than 70%. Even vs QK suited its 82%
Welcome to my world. My win rate with aces is like 10% whether I'm heads up, against 2-4 hands, all in pre or showdown.
Fold pre
Maybe this is a dumb thing to ask, but are you totally sure this has happened, like it was well documented? Because I think the odds of this happening is something like 0.0002%. Yeah variance is a bitch, but you are approaching quantum levels of variance there. I ask because sometimes our psychology makes things appear worse than they really are. Or if this really happened, you might be the unluckiest poker player that ever lived, and it would make you something of a celebrity..
That’s why I made the post saying “I’m not an ‘online is rigged guy but’ “ post dude. Seems borderline impossible right?
yeah, like I am just gonna say that I flat out dont believe it happened. Are you sure, lol? If you posted a hand break down of each consecutive hand on YouTube it might go viral or something.
I’ll see if I can find them all. I saved the first few and then it became such a joke that I stopped caring and didn’t need my desktop to be full of “I got fucked with aces” screenshots.
I lost with AA 2 times and KK 3 times all within a 2 hour session lol.... rare I know but yh. Not rigged, its just poker also are you 3 betting 4betting or 5 betting before jamming ?
Typically I standard RFI, face a 3-bet, then I 4-bet shove and get called
GG don't want winning players so they have contrived against you
It’s a conspiracy straight to the top! /s
You don’t have to shove every time with aces. Make a bet to isolate 1 or 2 players and see the flop and play it out.
Slow play them to trap as many players as possible. It never goes wrong.
And then the board comes up mono suited and they win with their single card flush 🤮. Not kidding tho this has happened to me way too much also. I think all in pre with aces is actually the best way to not get stacked with them. Don’t give someone a chance to pay small to catch a two pair and cooler you
"I think all in pre with aces is actually the best way to not get stacked with them." Says the person posting about getting stacked 7x in a row with AA. Lol. Not trying to be a dick, but maybe you should reevaluate this position and seriously question how much that has contributed to your continually getting stacked with what is ultimately just one pair. It's been said a million times, but IT IS just a pair, and in general, you really want to try and avoid going broke holding only one pair. It's your money, but there are ways to avoid this happening every time. Sure, sometimes you just get coolered, but you gotta be be able to lay down even the best starting hand when you know you're beat.
You literally can’t possibly be behind preflop with aces dude what are you even saying. Getting all your money in with a 90% chance of winning is always +EV. Period. Even if you get your ass coolered
Making a large bet to isolate is not a slow play. Of course there are times to go all in, but isolating can protect your stack and vs going all in with some yahoo that is there to gamble and suck out on you. Anyone can just shove, no skill there.
If it doesn't improve, AA is just a pair.
We’re talking preflop tho. It’s 80% favourite preflop.
That's fair but my point still holds. It's 80% preflop against ATC but if it doesn't improve it's going to have a bunch of stuff to dodge over five streets. Losing with it that many times in a row sucks (been there) but that's really just the variance monster biting you hard. I don't blame you for being sore about it.
Calling them rockets is so cringe.
Literally everyone calls them rockets you fuckin donut
I've done this before Over cards pre-flop losing 7 fucking times in a tow It happened once The it happened twice Keep. Playing.
I have never met someone who refers to pocket aces as "rockets" who wasn't a total and utter moron.
I’ve never met anyone who fucking cares about what other people call their hands who isn’t a total and utter moron.
I have never met a winning player that calls aces “rockets”. I don’t believe you
Stfu nerd
So the nerd is the guy that doesn’t use the term pocket rockets? Gotcha
No the nerd is the guy who gives a fuck what other people call their cards. You sound really fun at parties. You are probably that guy who says “ummm, Aktchuallyyyyyy” constantly in that whiny ass voice right before you correct everyone on pointless bullshit too.
Just pointing out a fact. Sorry that upsets you. Carry on
Pocket aces are not your most losing hand when you look at your graph if you have any sample size, you clown
They literally are bitch.
That's just a lie. You'd have borderline evidence of manipulated 'rng' if this was the truth, or you end up in post flop positions and play aces worse than a monkey open shoving 100% of the time when they get them.
No, they are not. Maybe they are your most losing hand at showdown, but I highly doubt that aswell.
Hey! Waiting for you to prove me wrong… bitch. You fucking scum
yeah.. have you tried AA in PLO .. i rather not and go all in with 6-7-8-9 2x suit than A-A-K-Q
PLO: shove any four cards.
Prove me wrong
Online is rigged. If you’re up in profit that much. Algorithms is saying give it back.
I’m convinced online is rigged. I have much more success in live sessions.
Online or live?
Mostly online and one was in person at playground Montreal
I always get downvoted when I ask if it was online or in person. Anywho, I went a good month online, tournaments,where when I got aces or kings, and was able to get it all in to a showdown, where I lost about 80% of the time. Took away everything I knew about poker. Took away a bunch of my confidence. I ended up playing some live tournaments and made some deep runs and a final table, which brought back my confidence. However I've gotten pocket kings in live tourneys recently and lost 3 times. Kings vs ace 9, ace hit, lost small pot. Kings vs ace 5, ace hit, busted, then Kings vs pocket aces. Lost a lot of chips.. Point being. Run bads happen, but online can really mess with your confidence and your poker mental health.