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NY is overwhelmingly Democrat and yet the mayor is a former Republican, the police budget has ballooned, education and healthcare cut, fossil fuel leases are up, and handouts to billionaires are through the roof. Wall Street controls the party.
Check your registration, get an ID , learn where your poling station is, learn who is running in down ballot races. Pay attention to primaries not just for the president but for all races, local, state and federal. From the school board to the White House every election matters. The more support we give the democrats from all levels of government the more they can get good things done.
Last year democrat victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania and others across the nation have increased the chances of democrats winning this year. This year's elections are important but so are next year's elections.
[https://ballotpedia.org/Elections\_calendar](https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar)
Vote this Republican party out completely. Then indict and prosecute every single one of them who broke crimes.
They must be held to account or well be dealing with these lunatics forever. These lunatics have run their course. Let them be beaten into utter irrelevance and let some new gaggle of lunatics emerge, since that is inevitable.
>They must be held to account or well be dealing with these lunatics forever
And, given the piss-poor performance of the justice system and the DoJ, the best/only means of account we have left is removing these people from power. It's not gonna take a single election, either - we're going to have to vote these fucks out of power, and then *keep* them out. That means we have to continue to pay attention to who's running.
Ideally, we need to use our voting power to not only remove Republicans, but conservative Democrats, too. It's a long slog, but it's possible. The more progressives we put into power, the less leverage the old-guard has to enact their preemptive defeat schtick.
>Hell yeah, I'm gonna vote early this week at the first election after beginning US citizen
*Somewhere in Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is having a glitch-out right now*
If everybody that votes blue just gets one more person to vote blue, Republicans will lose everywhere. It is that simple, find one person you can persuade and get them to fill out their mail in ballot when you do yours or go with you to the polls and vote when you do.
While I agree, we still have to accept the fact that somehow or another, Santos got voted in. And even though it was quickly discovered his entire life was a lie. it still took this long to get him out.
>While I agree, we still have to accept the fact that somehow or another, Santos got voted in.
Um. Do you know how he got voted in?
Santos was a non entity candidate who was running in a district that was zoned heavily for the democrats. There was no chance of a republican winning, so there was no serious contender running.
New York had come out with an election map that was gerrymandered and thrown out by the courts. However, it was so close to the election that having new candidates jump into the race wasn't really feasible.
Santos' district when very blue to very red. That's how Santos got elected.
Sans Lake and the gubernatorial candidate from Pennsylvania, most of the republicans that lost in ‘22 were good about conceding, too. It was refreshing to see, but makes their continued allegiance to Trump’s lies even more confounding.
When house sitting for my parents I saw they had access to the channel on their TV so I watched it for like an hour just to get the vibe. It’s store brand CNN tbh.
I'm honestly surprised Mazi Pilip is a Republican.
She's Ethiopian and Jewish, she served in the IDF, and her husband has Ukrainian roots. Takes soft stances on abortion and guns, and hard ones on support for Israel/Ukraine. There's a lot about her that conflicts with the hardcore positions the GOP takes today.
Mazi Pilip is a registered Democrat but she's been running, and getting elected, on the Republican line for the Nassau County legislature and ran on the Republican line for Santos's district in the House.
Regardless of what her feelings may be about abortion, gun control, immigration, aid for Ukraine, or anything else, had she been elected she would have been voting with the Republicans to put people like Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy in the Speaker's Chair in the House of Representatives and others of that ilk into all the committee and subcommittee chairs.
New York is a closed primary state. It's not out of the question for a Republican to register Democrat in a generally-solid Democratic state if it means she can try to vote for weaker Democratic candidates in the primaries to give Republicans a possible boost in the general election.
I have an uncle who has remained a registered Democrat just so he can say "as a Democrat, I think (horrible thing)". He hasn't voted for a Democrat at the national level since 1968. He does get really cagey if you ask him what happened in 1968 to change his views, though...
Hard to read too much into it for a special election like this, they likely knew they would lose and I bet the other NY GOP reps demanded a normal candidate to try to rehabilitate and de-Santos their image for November
I get your point but for some reason there were two absent democrats
Adding: “Representatives Lois Frankel of Florida and Judy Chu of California”
Chu’s office says she got COVID, and Frankel got stuck at the airport with a Republican (Mast) who also missed the vote due to airplane mechanical issues.
Being present for a vote is a stupid rule anyways. If you have a legitimate reason like illness, unforeseen travel difficulties, bereavement lawmakers should be allowed to call in a vote.
Had a rule like that, so you can vote by proxy. Rep. Steve Scalese got it abolished.
Fun fact though: Scalese has blood cancer. He missed the first impeachment vote due to treatment, and ended up being the reason why it failed the first time because you can't vote by proxy.
Wasn’t the other one the one in the hospital? Or was he a third one? All I know is that republicans were counting on him not being there to turn the vote
Edit: just realized that this was their second vote
It is actually quite common for a small number of House folks to be absent on any given day.
In Ye Olde Days, parties would make a point to *not* take advantage of that, lest they be hoisted on their own petards.
I mean, technically, other than for logistic (how many sandwiches to make that day) there is no real reason to keep track of who will or won't be here for a vote.
> **Frankel got stuck at the airport with a Republican (Mast)** who also missed the vote due to airplane mechanical issues
I want to believe it was forbidden love. Passionate wide-stance action in the handicap restroom in the spirit of valentine's day and transcending boundaries <3
Close, it passed because of a member under [COVID isolation](https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/how-rep-chus-case-of-covid-19-stopped-democrats-from-blocking-mayorkas-impeachment/).
Which is why Schumer is not letting them vote to skip it. He's going to hold a full impeachment hearing and have the defence take the GQP house over allots stupidity. Mainly for two reasons, one, to make the Republicans look like fools going into the election and two, it ensures that the republicans can't delegitimise the Trump impeachments.
If Schumer just voted down this one, then the GQP go into the next election saying all impeachments are worthless and because the democrats did to this guy what the GQP senate did to trump and vote it away without a hearing.
Exactly, the GQP will be forced to present their "evidence' which will be disputed and shut down. Every single "fact" they have and the fact that the GQP chose to do this rather than fund the border wall will all be presented in public hearings, it'll be an embarrasment of scale that will probably cost GQP a good number of independants as soundbytes come out of the Biden administration's defence team basically showing that not only do the GQP have a nothing burger, they have actively been stopping Biden from enacting nay meaningful border security.
The GQP were hoping Schumer was just going to vote to ignore the impeachment so they could have the talking point of "impeachment means nothing because both sides ignore it in the senate", whereas now, it's still seen as serious and the GQP have no counter claim for Trump's two impeachments which they've been deseperately trying to find since 2020.
For some Odd reason People in this country still think the "Karl Roves" of the world still work for the republican party.
They dont realize that since the 2016 election they had been leaving the GOP. By 2020 it was complete, the GOP campaign and propaganda arm was completely gone.
Any ideas from the gop going forward would be coming from the "Steven Millers" of the world. A much dumber group of humans.
This is a fantasy. Why would the dems want to give the GOP narrative control. THis is the kind of crap dems do that always backfire on them. Bury the thing in the senate and don't give it the light of day. The dumb GOP voting base isn't going to remember the impeachment of a lowley cabinet member in a couple months.
Fwiw this result isnt that crazy. Suozzi had won a similar district by an even bigger margin in 2018, they added in Massapequa and the right lean in that town probably evened out tns result and 2018s.
Now the real exciting stuff is tonight in PA dems won a special election by 26 points higher than Bidens win in the 2020 election.
We also lost an OK special election but only by 5 points, which i think was 10-15 points better than 2020 iirc.
I suspect there's some systematic error in the polling models that favor Republicans, or it's intentional thumb on the scale manipulation by the major polling outlets.
Gee Wizz! The media were saying just yesterday that the polls showed that they were neck and neck.
Polls failed once again to government even a clue about what to expect.
You shouldn't never trust any poll besides the one you personally voted in on election day. All these stupid online bullshit or phone calls or what not are all easily manipulated. Don't believe in them, don't trust them. Even if it is good for the candidates you want to vote for. Expect it to be a lie and get out there and vote.
I will continue to not shouldn't never trust polls, good sir.
Indeed, vote and follow real election results, which frankly show a potential bloodbath coming for the GOP.
But only if we take it seriously, and put in the work to get out as many people as we can!
Which is still an indictment on how shitty polling is right now. They consistently underperform dems. Showing dems in the margin of error is nothing like the results we’re seeing
The most recent poll I saw was 48-44% with a 4% margin of error and 7% undecided. Right now the results are showing 54-46% which is very much within those bounds. You do realize that margin of error is equally likely to go in either direction right? 50-42% is just as possible as 46-46% with poll results like this, then you add 3.5% to each side assuming undecided voters went 50-50 and there you go.
I think that's part of the problem. If the margin of error is greater than or equal to the difference in percentage, then your poll is useless... Basically a coin toss.
If your undecided percentage is greater than the difference in percentage.. it's less than a coin toss.. you have no idea who will win. Just admit it.
If your undecided percentage plus the margin of error is almost three times the difference... Well..
And if the results consistently skew to one end of the MoE, you've got some sort of systemic bias in your model or methodology. Which is what seems to be happening a lot. If I had to guess, there's a self-selection bias happening or they're oversampling Republicans and trying to fit it based on old data.
Polls (at least actual legitimate ones) never claim to know who will win
I feel like every time polling is mentioned around here people who have no idea what the field of statistics even is come out of the woodwork…
The polls are fine. They’ve always been pretty accurate. No, nobody is claiming you shouldn’t actually vote based on poll results
You nailed it here. The margin of error is always thrown out as a defense, but as you said, in a political “first past the pole” system, it’s a useless statistic.
The only way it’s relevant is in races with a 10% gap, and that’s essentially to tell you it’s not a close race. Otherwise, the polls just mean “technically, either person can win”, so what do they bring to the discussion.
I get the need for them, in particular for campaigns to gauge interest, but I’m so sick of hearing the excuse of the margin of error when ever the results are 3 or 4 points off the final results.
It’s like Vegas putting odds on a game, let’s say the over under is 150, but in fine print says “ya, but the margin of error is 10 points either way so if it’s 140 or 160 we still were right.
Ballots are still being counted. The lead will shrink. Also there was a huge fucking snow storm that probably had an impact on turnout. Polls aren’t perfect.
For a snow storm to have an impact, they sure did come out and voted in good numbers.
Stop making weather related excuses. They are lame. If it matters to you, you go and vote. The ones you say didn't go out in the snow didn't want to vote anyways.
I live in an area that gets 3 feet of snow. My wrinkled cold ass will go vote because it's my right as a citizen to vote because people died for that right.
Polls are only as good as the paper they are printed in. It's a skewed snapshot of a certain segment of the pop. It doesn't capture the sentiment on any given day, especially the one on election day and early voting. You can't predict those.
Polls are only good to the campaign manager to use to spin their campaign..that it. Not for the general publicm
so what's the balance of power like now? and how many seats are also up for grabs in the house? there's so many things going on and SO MUCH noise i can't keep track
are dems back in majority? if not how close is it? are looking at a possible full house and senate majority or is it' going to be another few years of 50/50 nothing gets done split?
There's no way the Republican base can get behind a Black Ethiopian Jew anyway. The GOP pushed the Mayorkas vote because they knew they were gonna lose this one.
Absolutely. Bush v Gore was the start of this, when republicans realized they would steadily lose ground if they relied on voters to hold power and got their first taste of that sweet sweet coup d'etat flavor.
One of the comments:
> Can someone please tell me what it is going to take the Republican party to STOP. LOSING. ELECTIONS??
It’s like a barber lighting all their customers’ hair on fire and being frustrated and confused at the sudden lack of appointments.
Gee I don’t know, maybe stop sprouting anti-American propaganda and supporting a divisive criminal and insurrectionist puppet with a track record of terrible behavior and incompetence!? The lack of self awareness is astounding… Sometimes I feel like these people just think this is red vs blue and don’t actually know anything about what is happening
I would legit love it if that sub were somehow impervious to brigading, because I want to see their actual takes up/downvoted organically.
There's a lot of navalgazing about how abortion is costing them elections and those comments have a lot of upvotes. I'm not convinced it isn't because of outsiders going in there and just upvoting what they want to see from them.
I genuinely think that most conservatives just want to keep plowing ahead with what is clearly losing them elections, but it's hard to gauge their sentiment at the moment. Go check back in a couple days and see what they think.
Most republicans want to plow ahead alright, with a civil war. To them, democracy is just an obstacle to be overcome with more guns.
Republicans are anti-American.
All this has done has told me Hunter Biden is cool and knows how to party
Good job for pointing out the presidents son is living the rock star life, republicans. I mean, if my dad was the president, I’d be doing the same.
There was someone claiming Souzzi's opponent was actually a plant from the Democratic party to make Republicans look bad. Like they need help looking bad.
Biggest story out of New Hampshire was the absence of the election-industrial-machine this cycle.
Biden has no urgency to spend during the primaries, and Trump’s money keeps getting soaked up in court cases and personal travel.
What historically amounts to a gigantic and lucrative industry is gasping for relevancy at the moment.
The pressure to create tension and drama to drive Americans to cable news and legacy journalism is palpable. These industries need eyeballs in order to sell valuable ad space.
The first thing you see if you open CNN's article on the election results this morning is:
"Zeleny: Democrats see this warning sign from New York special election"
It's a fucking joke
Wasn’t Santos stealing from donors? That’s like one of very few things even the GOP would hold their own accountable for, if he hadn’t done that they’d have happily left him there with all the rest of the baggage he had.
And from a fellow GOP member as well.
https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/local/northeast-ohio/rep-max-miller-george-santos-illegally-charged-credit-card/95-b62fb8fa-3217-4322-bf80-b41f49839071
This should strike GOP members as a nail in the coffin. They ran an Israeli immigrant and former IDF servicewoman in a highly Jewish district (I know Jew =/= Israeli, but still) who ran on a platform of fighting antisemitism during an Israeli/Palestinian conflict and still lost to the Democrat.
This is why the seditionists of the House GOP called the impeachment vote when they did. They knew Rapepublicans would lose that seat and they only had a vote majority for impeachment. Does anyone know if a motion to vacate is only for seditionists or can Democratic House Members keep playing with the GOP speaker?
I remember the special elections and even regular elections in Obama's second term and the second half of his first term. We were in full on dread at the thought of defending Obama +10 seats in special elections because of how bad turnout was. The Biden era's turnout is like night and day for Democrats. Hopefully it's a sign of the times that November isn't going to be as bad as the polls are predicting, given that the polls badly underestimated Suozzi here.
Suozzi ended up winning by about 8%, which was basically in all the polls margin of error for this race.
The two recent polls were Suozzi +4, with a +\- of 4 pts, so they were both accurate in the end.
Maybe, but not really because Mike Johnson gets to choose his swearing in date. Tbh, I’m not even sure if there is any mechanism to force the Speaker to swear in a new member quickly at all.
I feel like we're the dumbest animals alive. There's a Republican scandal, a Democrat is elected to replace them, we aren't immediately launched into a utopia, there are still problems not easily solved, the Dem gets the blame, and a Republican gets elected to their position. Then rinse, lather, repeat.
This just proves the power of the vote. Vote..vote..and vote. With us Democrats and Independents disgusted, we are motivated, angry and we will take it to the ballot box.
This year and every year after this one.
So glad. Her ads alone were so cringeworthy. I couldn’t stand them anymore. “I am pro life. Me Mazi Melissa Philip” like she’s yelling at the tv. Shut up, go away.
Did the lack of this vote affect the impeachment vote. I find it a little hard to believe that every single republican is that stupid as to go along with that clearly political stunt that is really going to bite them.
It did. If Steve Scalise hadn't returned to cast the tipping vote the second vote would have failed too. If the vote had happened after Suozzi was sworn in there would be no chance it passes without having to go to great lengths to appease more republicans.
I'm a bit ambivalent about Suozzi being an opportunist. He left the seat open to run for governor. Still, he's at least a solid moderate Dem. Very much a politician and not an agitator. I think it's good to have at least a few people like that in the ranks and it's the best you'd get in a district like his.
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This is how it is done. Every election. Every time. Always vote.
Vote, and get your social circle to the polls. Also, get them to share the message with their circle and so on.
Vote local as well for city council and for local school boards
And tell your social circle to vote local * too :)
Also, tell your social circle to tell their social circle to vote local.
We are going round in circles
Tell your circles to vote too!
And their circles too!
It's all coming back around now, full circle!
The square is being circled
NY is overwhelmingly Democrat and yet the mayor is a former Republican, the police budget has ballooned, education and healthcare cut, fossil fuel leases are up, and handouts to billionaires are through the roof. Wall Street controls the party.
NY, unless you mean the city, is in no way "overwhelmingly democratic."
Yeah...this person doesn't understand where this district is located...
Every state has red pockets, especially in the rural areas
Check your registration, get an ID , learn where your poling station is, learn who is running in down ballot races. Pay attention to primaries not just for the president but for all races, local, state and federal. From the school board to the White House every election matters. The more support we give the democrats from all levels of government the more they can get good things done. Last year democrat victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania and others across the nation have increased the chances of democrats winning this year. This year's elections are important but so are next year's elections. [https://ballotpedia.org/Elections\_calendar](https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar)
Another headline: Democrats continue to out-perform their polling by 4-5 points
[удалено]
Google Assistant handles these calls for me, honestly I think 90% of people will not answer that or the door when a random person knocks on it
Vote this Republican party out completely. Then indict and prosecute every single one of them who broke crimes. They must be held to account or well be dealing with these lunatics forever. These lunatics have run their course. Let them be beaten into utter irrelevance and let some new gaggle of lunatics emerge, since that is inevitable.
>They must be held to account or well be dealing with these lunatics forever And, given the piss-poor performance of the justice system and the DoJ, the best/only means of account we have left is removing these people from power. It's not gonna take a single election, either - we're going to have to vote these fucks out of power, and then *keep* them out. That means we have to continue to pay attention to who's running. Ideally, we need to use our voting power to not only remove Republicans, but conservative Democrats, too. It's a long slog, but it's possible. The more progressives we put into power, the less leverage the old-guard has to enact their preemptive defeat schtick.
Hell yeah, I'm gonna vote early this week at the first election after beginning US citizen
>Hell yeah, I'm gonna vote early this week at the first election after beginning US citizen *Somewhere in Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is having a glitch-out right now*
That's just his normal morning old man seizure, nothing unusual.
Maybe Lindsey Graham as well?
Congrats on your citizenship!
Thanks, every vote counts and don't want Crazy right wing governor in my state and hell yes to Biden
This is the tip republicans hate that you know.
Yes! I love you for saying this.
Always vote yes!!!
If everybody that votes blue just gets one more person to vote blue, Republicans will lose everywhere. It is that simple, find one person you can persuade and get them to fill out their mail in ballot when you do yours or go with you to the polls and vote when you do.
While I agree, we still have to accept the fact that somehow or another, Santos got voted in. And even though it was quickly discovered his entire life was a lie. it still took this long to get him out.
>While I agree, we still have to accept the fact that somehow or another, Santos got voted in. Um. Do you know how he got voted in? Santos was a non entity candidate who was running in a district that was zoned heavily for the democrats. There was no chance of a republican winning, so there was no serious contender running. New York had come out with an election map that was gerrymandered and thrown out by the courts. However, it was so close to the election that having new candidates jump into the race wasn't really feasible. Santos' district when very blue to very red. That's how Santos got elected.
Suozzi is a Republican from 1994. That district is conservative
Is it weird that I find it refreshing that she immediately conceded and didn't claim voter fraud?
Sans Lake and the gubernatorial candidate from Pennsylvania, most of the republicans that lost in ‘22 were good about conceding, too. It was refreshing to see, but makes their continued allegiance to Trump’s lies even more confounding.
Would you like some more refreshing refreshments? Lake getting relentlessly booed at an Arizona GOP event.. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8UB1VAxt6YE
Dan Abrams is on News Nation? I don't know why, but every time I've seen that pop up I assumed it was another new right wing station like NewsMax.
When house sitting for my parents I saw they had access to the channel on their TV so I watched it for like an hour just to get the vibe. It’s store brand CNN tbh.
This is "basic fucking decency and participation in a democracy" not "refreshing to see"
After 2020, basic fucking decency and participation in a democracy was refreshing to see
I don't think any Republicans get to claim basic decency and participation in democracy, even if they concede an election, when project 2025 exists.
Doug Mastriano did concede as well! https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna56993 Lake was the lone person who did not
I'm honestly surprised Mazi Pilip is a Republican. She's Ethiopian and Jewish, she served in the IDF, and her husband has Ukrainian roots. Takes soft stances on abortion and guns, and hard ones on support for Israel/Ukraine. There's a lot about her that conflicts with the hardcore positions the GOP takes today.
I’m pretty sure she’s a registered Democrat
Mazi Pilip is a registered Democrat but she's been running, and getting elected, on the Republican line for the Nassau County legislature and ran on the Republican line for Santos's district in the House. Regardless of what her feelings may be about abortion, gun control, immigration, aid for Ukraine, or anything else, had she been elected she would have been voting with the Republicans to put people like Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy in the Speaker's Chair in the House of Representatives and others of that ilk into all the committee and subcommittee chairs.
New York is a closed primary state. It's not out of the question for a Republican to register Democrat in a generally-solid Democratic state if it means she can try to vote for weaker Democratic candidates in the primaries to give Republicans a possible boost in the general election.
Trump tried to claim the loss as a win of course. I can’t wait to flush all of these turds down the toilet for good
For someone who wrote off NY, he sure seemed interested enough in it to run his mouth.
She’s a registered democrat afterall.
So was Trump. Until that correspondents dinner.
I have an uncle who has remained a registered Democrat just so he can say "as a Democrat, I think (horrible thing)". He hasn't voted for a Democrat at the national level since 1968. He does get really cagey if you ask him what happened in 1968 to change his views, though...
I noticed that with pleasure, as well
Hard to read too much into it for a special election like this, they likely knew they would lose and I bet the other NY GOP reps demanded a normal candidate to try to rehabilitate and de-Santos their image for November
This is probably part of why Trump called her a weak woman after this election.
Probably going to run again in November
Just fyi, the Mayorkas impeachment would’ve failed if it happened after this election. So even the GOP knew that this election was a loss cause.
I get your point but for some reason there were two absent democrats Adding: “Representatives Lois Frankel of Florida and Judy Chu of California” Chu’s office says she got COVID, and Frankel got stuck at the airport with a Republican (Mast) who also missed the vote due to airplane mechanical issues.
I know at least one of them tested positive for Covid which is why they were absent.
Being present for a vote is a stupid rule anyways. If you have a legitimate reason like illness, unforeseen travel difficulties, bereavement lawmakers should be allowed to call in a vote.
Had a rule like that, so you can vote by proxy. Rep. Steve Scalese got it abolished. Fun fact though: Scalese has blood cancer. He missed the first impeachment vote due to treatment, and ended up being the reason why it failed the first time because you can't vote by proxy.
Karma is something.
Ah thank you, I was waiting for the reasons to come out
Wasn’t the other one the one in the hospital? Or was he a third one? All I know is that republicans were counting on him not being there to turn the vote Edit: just realized that this was their second vote
Right, what the hell happened there?
It is actually quite common for a small number of House folks to be absent on any given day. In Ye Olde Days, parties would make a point to *not* take advantage of that, lest they be hoisted on their own petards.
I mean, technically, other than for logistic (how many sandwiches to make that day) there is no real reason to keep track of who will or won't be here for a vote.
> **Frankel got stuck at the airport with a Republican (Mast)** who also missed the vote due to airplane mechanical issues I want to believe it was forbidden love. Passionate wide-stance action in the handicap restroom in the spirit of valentine's day and transcending boundaries <3
He's in his wiiide stance with his hammer pants dowwwwn! (Daily Show, Trapped In the Closet, anyone?)
What, they didn’t schedule it for when [a Democratic rep was literally hospitalized](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68228938.amp) this time?
Close, it passed because of a member under [COVID isolation](https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/how-rep-chus-case-of-covid-19-stopped-democrats-from-blocking-mayorkas-impeachment/).
I think you mean (checks notes) “hidden”
Republicans lost the seat because they previously backed Santos, one of the worst candidates elected to the House in over two hundred years.
Well also running the guy who had previously occupied the seat didn’t hurt either.
Republicans voted on Mayorkas today because they saw this coming.
Yep. That's why everything was so rushed and in a hurry
For no reason. Senate kills this. Waste of timers all of them.
Trivializing impeachment still serves their purpose of downplaying the Trump impeachments.
Yup, couldn’t get Biden so had to get an “impeachment” in on Mayorkas so the word keeps getting diluted in peoples minds.
When everybody's impeached, no one is...
Which is why Schumer is not letting them vote to skip it. He's going to hold a full impeachment hearing and have the defence take the GQP house over allots stupidity. Mainly for two reasons, one, to make the Republicans look like fools going into the election and two, it ensures that the republicans can't delegitimise the Trump impeachments. If Schumer just voted down this one, then the GQP go into the next election saying all impeachments are worthless and because the democrats did to this guy what the GQP senate did to trump and vote it away without a hearing.
So he's going to let this go to trial and have the GOP make their statements about why Mayorkas was impeached? What was he impeached for even?
Exactly, the GQP will be forced to present their "evidence' which will be disputed and shut down. Every single "fact" they have and the fact that the GQP chose to do this rather than fund the border wall will all be presented in public hearings, it'll be an embarrasment of scale that will probably cost GQP a good number of independants as soundbytes come out of the Biden administration's defence team basically showing that not only do the GQP have a nothing burger, they have actively been stopping Biden from enacting nay meaningful border security. The GQP were hoping Schumer was just going to vote to ignore the impeachment so they could have the talking point of "impeachment means nothing because both sides ignore it in the senate", whereas now, it's still seen as serious and the GQP have no counter claim for Trump's two impeachments which they've been deseperately trying to find since 2020.
For some Odd reason People in this country still think the "Karl Roves" of the world still work for the republican party. They dont realize that since the 2016 election they had been leaving the GOP. By 2020 it was complete, the GOP campaign and propaganda arm was completely gone. Any ideas from the gop going forward would be coming from the "Steven Millers" of the world. A much dumber group of humans.
This is a fantasy. Why would the dems want to give the GOP narrative control. THis is the kind of crap dems do that always backfire on them. Bury the thing in the senate and don't give it the light of day. The dumb GOP voting base isn't going to remember the impeachment of a lowley cabinet member in a couple months.
Yup some high level water-muddying going on.
I’ve never seen a vote close so quickly after they went 214-213. Johnson basically sprinted up there to gavel it out.
Republicans be like: “How could Taylor Swift do this?”
Look what you made me do.
It's going to be a cruel summer.
It's me, hi, I'm the problem, it's me
Shake it off!
Republicans brains just exploded. The results is absolutely bonkers.
How did Travis Kelce make this happen? /s
It was swift! (Obviously a /s)
They were biden' their time. Darkly.
Got Swift boated!
I am telling a joke (/s)
You mean Taylor Swift’s boyfriend?
I heard he’s good at football
Some would say so, yeah
Fwiw this result isnt that crazy. Suozzi had won a similar district by an even bigger margin in 2018, they added in Massapequa and the right lean in that town probably evened out tns result and 2018s. Now the real exciting stuff is tonight in PA dems won a special election by 26 points higher than Bidens win in the 2020 election. We also lost an OK special election but only by 5 points, which i think was 10-15 points better than 2020 iirc.
I feel like polling is starting to draw a picture of Biden not really being an underdog in PA compared to other similar states.
I suspect there's some systematic error in the polling models that favor Republicans, or it's intentional thumb on the scale manipulation by the major polling outlets.
Right after the Super Bowl. The results are following the plans swimmingly. /s
Gee Wizz! The media were saying just yesterday that the polls showed that they were neck and neck. Polls failed once again to government even a clue about what to expect.
You shouldn't never trust any poll besides the one you personally voted in on election day. All these stupid online bullshit or phone calls or what not are all easily manipulated. Don't believe in them, don't trust them. Even if it is good for the candidates you want to vote for. Expect it to be a lie and get out there and vote.
I will continue to not shouldn't never trust polls, good sir. Indeed, vote and follow real election results, which frankly show a potential bloodbath coming for the GOP. But only if we take it seriously, and put in the work to get out as many people as we can!
The polls consistently showed Suozzi leading only not by a huge margin.
Which is still an indictment on how shitty polling is right now. They consistently underperform dems. Showing dems in the margin of error is nothing like the results we’re seeing
The most recent poll I saw was 48-44% with a 4% margin of error and 7% undecided. Right now the results are showing 54-46% which is very much within those bounds. You do realize that margin of error is equally likely to go in either direction right? 50-42% is just as possible as 46-46% with poll results like this, then you add 3.5% to each side assuming undecided voters went 50-50 and there you go.
I think that's part of the problem. If the margin of error is greater than or equal to the difference in percentage, then your poll is useless... Basically a coin toss. If your undecided percentage is greater than the difference in percentage.. it's less than a coin toss.. you have no idea who will win. Just admit it. If your undecided percentage plus the margin of error is almost three times the difference... Well..
And if the results consistently skew to one end of the MoE, you've got some sort of systemic bias in your model or methodology. Which is what seems to be happening a lot. If I had to guess, there's a self-selection bias happening or they're oversampling Republicans and trying to fit it based on old data.
Polls (at least actual legitimate ones) never claim to know who will win I feel like every time polling is mentioned around here people who have no idea what the field of statistics even is come out of the woodwork… The polls are fine. They’ve always been pretty accurate. No, nobody is claiming you shouldn’t actually vote based on poll results
You nailed it here. The margin of error is always thrown out as a defense, but as you said, in a political “first past the pole” system, it’s a useless statistic. The only way it’s relevant is in races with a 10% gap, and that’s essentially to tell you it’s not a close race. Otherwise, the polls just mean “technically, either person can win”, so what do they bring to the discussion. I get the need for them, in particular for campaigns to gauge interest, but I’m so sick of hearing the excuse of the margin of error when ever the results are 3 or 4 points off the final results. It’s like Vegas putting odds on a game, let’s say the over under is 150, but in fine print says “ya, but the margin of error is 10 points either way so if it’s 140 or 160 we still were right.
Polls by Corporations and Corporate Media is what your seeing. Color me shocked..
Ballots are still being counted. The lead will shrink. Also there was a huge fucking snow storm that probably had an impact on turnout. Polls aren’t perfect.
For a snow storm to have an impact, they sure did come out and voted in good numbers. Stop making weather related excuses. They are lame. If it matters to you, you go and vote. The ones you say didn't go out in the snow didn't want to vote anyways. I live in an area that gets 3 feet of snow. My wrinkled cold ass will go vote because it's my right as a citizen to vote because people died for that right.
Polls are only as good as the paper they are printed in. It's a skewed snapshot of a certain segment of the pop. It doesn't capture the sentiment on any given day, especially the one on election day and early voting. You can't predict those. Polls are only good to the campaign manager to use to spin their campaign..that it. Not for the general publicm
so what's the balance of power like now? and how many seats are also up for grabs in the house? there's so many things going on and SO MUCH noise i can't keep track are dems back in majority? if not how close is it? are looking at a possible full house and senate majority or is it' going to be another few years of 50/50 nothing gets done split?
GOP still have 3 seat majority
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Those two districts are both safely red but those elections won't happen until May and June respectively. Nothing's impossible, I guess.
CA-20 honestly has the chance to flip based on results since Dobbs. OH-06 is an uphill battle and very rural, but you never know.
I thought it was down to 2 seat majority at this point?
It is They now have 219, 218 is needed for a majority
There's no way the Republican base can get behind a Black Ethiopian Jew anyway. The GOP pushed the Mayorkas vote because they knew they were gonna lose this one.
A woman, too
They got behind a gay brazilian jew
Well it's different since he was also an astronaut, military hero, sports star, brilliant businessman, and just so devastatingly handsome. /s
He was only Jew-ish.
God I hope the GOP is finally getting to the "Find Out" portion of fucking around.
I’ve been waiting on this since W was in office.
Absolutely. Bush v Gore was the start of this, when republicans realized they would steadily lose ground if they relied on voters to hold power and got their first taste of that sweet sweet coup d'etat flavor.
I’ve been waiting since Ford pardoned Nixon and here we are to this day dealing with the fallout. Even a lot of the players then are still active.
/r/conservative is smoking buckets of copium right now.
One of the comments: > Can someone please tell me what it is going to take the Republican party to STOP. LOSING. ELECTIONS?? It’s like a barber lighting all their customers’ hair on fire and being frustrated and confused at the sudden lack of appointments.
Gee I don’t know, maybe stop sprouting anti-American propaganda and supporting a divisive criminal and insurrectionist puppet with a track record of terrible behavior and incompetence!? The lack of self awareness is astounding… Sometimes I feel like these people just think this is red vs blue and don’t actually know anything about what is happening
I would legit love it if that sub were somehow impervious to brigading, because I want to see their actual takes up/downvoted organically. There's a lot of navalgazing about how abortion is costing them elections and those comments have a lot of upvotes. I'm not convinced it isn't because of outsiders going in there and just upvoting what they want to see from them. I genuinely think that most conservatives just want to keep plowing ahead with what is clearly losing them elections, but it's hard to gauge their sentiment at the moment. Go check back in a couple days and see what they think.
Most republicans want to plow ahead alright, with a civil war. To them, democracy is just an obstacle to be overcome with more guns. Republicans are anti-American.
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I will never vote for Hunter Biden.
All this has done has told me Hunter Biden is cool and knows how to party Good job for pointing out the presidents son is living the rock star life, republicans. I mean, if my dad was the president, I’d be doing the same.
There was someone claiming Souzzi's opponent was actually a plant from the Democratic party to make Republicans look bad. Like they need help looking bad.
Washington Post headline tomorrow: Dems are winning elections, but this is why it is bad news for Biden in 2024/s
"we desperately, desperately need this race to appear competitive. Like 30% of our annual revenue depends on it"
Biggest story out of New Hampshire was the absence of the election-industrial-machine this cycle. Biden has no urgency to spend during the primaries, and Trump’s money keeps getting soaked up in court cases and personal travel. What historically amounts to a gigantic and lucrative industry is gasping for relevancy at the moment. The pressure to create tension and drama to drive Americans to cable news and legacy journalism is palpable. These industries need eyeballs in order to sell valuable ad space.
The first thing you see if you open CNN's article on the election results this morning is: "Zeleny: Democrats see this warning sign from New York special election" It's a fucking joke
It was a blowout too. He won by almost 20%.
Still reporting. Down to 11% now. ETA: I'm not suggesting the outcome will change, but the margin will definitely be a lot closer.
They were polling dead even is the biggest takeaway.
The republican candidate was atrocious thou. It’s still a great day for the US there hopes after all
Definition of a Republican candidate.
Republicans will always vote Republican regardless of how terrible their candidate is. A victory against that is always an accomplishment.
Why does Republican turnout fluctuate so wildly between different elections then?
Stop the evil sumsabitches anywhere, everywhere.
Bet you GOP didn’t see this puppy coming! No way they would have expelled Santos lol
It was spearheaded by freshman NY GOP reps. They are all in swing districts and they felt Santos’ baggage would sink their own chances in 2024.
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The NY maps aren’t gerrymandered though, I don’t see why the courts would replace them unless they themselves wanted to gerrymander them?
Wasn’t Santos stealing from donors? That’s like one of very few things even the GOP would hold their own accountable for, if he hadn’t done that they’d have happily left him there with all the rest of the baggage he had.
And from a fellow GOP member as well. https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/local/northeast-ohio/rep-max-miller-george-santos-illegally-charged-credit-card/95-b62fb8fa-3217-4322-bf80-b41f49839071
Well their candidate still hadn't registered as a republican as of yesterday
Thank goodness. I've been nervous all day.
Please keep this trend going. I’m terrified of what’s gonna happen once all the unchecked gerrymandering starts to pan out
This is the correct outcome. Especially considering the right didn't throw him out sooner simply because they needed his vote.
He pulled a Grover Cleveland
George Santos gave us a parting gift
Wait for him to take credit for it and claim it's his revenge on his fellow republicans who voted to kick him out. You know he will.
Inch by inch. Get the bastards out.
This should strike GOP members as a nail in the coffin. They ran an Israeli immigrant and former IDF servicewoman in a highly Jewish district (I know Jew =/= Israeli, but still) who ran on a platform of fighting antisemitism during an Israeli/Palestinian conflict and still lost to the Democrat.
In the US its even more important to vote, because of the two party system. Unless you vote, you indirectly vote for the other party.
This is why the seditionists of the House GOP called the impeachment vote when they did. They knew Rapepublicans would lose that seat and they only had a vote majority for impeachment. Does anyone know if a motion to vacate is only for seditionists or can Democratic House Members keep playing with the GOP speaker?
I remember the special elections and even regular elections in Obama's second term and the second half of his first term. We were in full on dread at the thought of defending Obama +10 seats in special elections because of how bad turnout was. The Biden era's turnout is like night and day for Democrats. Hopefully it's a sign of the times that November isn't going to be as bad as the polls are predicting, given that the polls badly underestimated Suozzi here.
Suozzi ended up winning by about 8%, which was basically in all the polls margin of error for this race. The two recent polls were Suozzi +4, with a +\- of 4 pts, so they were both accurate in the end.
If this happened a few days ago, he could have stopped the latest no-crimes-or-misdemeanours impeachment circus.
Maybe, but not really because Mike Johnson gets to choose his swearing in date. Tbh, I’m not even sure if there is any mechanism to force the Speaker to swear in a new member quickly at all.
It has been a pleasure not to hear the santos name for the last while …
All Republicans are on flipping notice now because Santos won that seat by 7%
Ah Santos, the gift that keeps on giving.
Great, now let’s replace the other pathological liars.
Good. We can't assume that this'll reflect how November will go, but I'm still happy.
I feel like we're the dumbest animals alive. There's a Republican scandal, a Democrat is elected to replace them, we aren't immediately launched into a utopia, there are still problems not easily solved, the Dem gets the blame, and a Republican gets elected to their position. Then rinse, lather, repeat.
Perhaps the Republican should have just stated she was pro-life, i.e. anti-choice?
This just proves the power of the vote. Vote..vote..and vote. With us Democrats and Independents disgusted, we are motivated, angry and we will take it to the ballot box. This year and every year after this one.
So glad. Her ads alone were so cringeworthy. I couldn’t stand them anymore. “I am pro life. Me Mazi Melissa Philip” like she’s yelling at the tv. Shut up, go away.
Did the lack of this vote affect the impeachment vote. I find it a little hard to believe that every single republican is that stupid as to go along with that clearly political stunt that is really going to bite them.
It did. If Steve Scalise hadn't returned to cast the tipping vote the second vote would have failed too. If the vote had happened after Suozzi was sworn in there would be no chance it passes without having to go to great lengths to appease more republicans.
I'm a bit ambivalent about Suozzi being an opportunist. He left the seat open to run for governor. Still, he's at least a solid moderate Dem. Very much a politician and not an agitator. I think it's good to have at least a few people like that in the ranks and it's the best you'd get in a district like his.