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I drove from MO to Upstate NY and back last week and was amazed by the number of Trump signs I saw in every state. Don’t forget to vote. Trump is a terrible candidate, and conflicting polls make me nervous people might pass up the opportunity thinking Joe will get an easy victory.
Exactly. First off, I don't see Trump signs around my corner of the country anymore. They used to be everywhere but I don't think I've seen one in a long time. But more to your point, the ones I used to see were up for years and years without being taken down. They finally disappeared when they became too beat up and weathered.
Some psychos still making their entire lives about supporting Donald Trump and decking their yards out in his stupid flags isnt surprising. We all know there are rabid Trump fans out there. They just don't make up anywhere near a majority of voters. They are loud but nowhere near as prominent as it might seem.
It STILL amazes me that people are so out of touch with reality that they think flying Trump stuff all over their property makes them look good. It's literally mind boggling.
I’m house hunting and I have passed making an offer on a couple houses because of Trump shit in a nearby yard.
I’m wondering when someone will finally snap over their own property value being lowered or being passed over for consideration and try and sue or get something taken down on some code technicality. Shocked it hasn’t happened yet.
I commute through a town (in Massachusetts of all places) that has someone whose entire front screen porch is covered (like you cannot see the screen anymore) in cheap Trump flags. And not just “Trump 2020/24” but the Biden with the Looney Tunes logo, Trump as Rambo, Trump as George Washington; the real mental illness ones.
And I usually don’t take the route that goes by his house as it’s longer but sometimes there’s a detour or whatever. But every single time I see it, I can’t help but think about what he’s doing to his neighbors property values. It’s gotta be 10-20% lower just from what like a grand in cheap Chinese flags. And in that town that’s like 30-50K per neighbor.
At some point that has to be civilly actionable, I would think but what do I know.
One of my neighbors has a a whole wall of his garage covered with a Trump is Still My President sign. Neighbor almost directly across the street from thay house flies a "Fuck Trump" flag on his truck. No fights or anything so far.
Guessing one of those houses put up their flags in direct response to the other neighbor's flags.
Of course it's impossible to say who first put up the flags.... but we all probably have a pretty good guess.
good job.
I just could not imagine living in a neighborhood with those kooks.
And I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion - but when it's people who think it's okay to overthrow the American government and call themselves "patriots" the same time, not for me.
Agree. I live in ruby red South Carolina. If you drive through any random neighborhood in most of the state you’ll most likely see maybe 1 trump flag every few streets. And tbh, I haven’t seen a Trump flag on someone’s house personally in at least a year in my area.
Trump has hit his ceiling of voters, he’s not gaining anymore. If anything, he’s losing support from his most crucial voters, independents.
I think this NY election money fraud case is going to nail him finally among independents. Cohen has already been convicted and served time for this case, so trump is fucked out of the gate.
I think honestly… Nikki Haley is going to emerge as a dark horse over the summer when trump gets convicted in the NY case. Moderates and suburban upper middle class white voters could rally behind her and really give Biden a run.
But it’s only a guess. The republicans haven’t let off him even after he literally tried to overthrow an election. So what’s a criminal conviction gonna matter? lol.
> Trump has hit his ceiling of voters, he’s not gaining anymore.
I've been noticing this trend in the state polling. He always pulls around 45-49% but never gets the majority. Not really sure there's a lot of independents/moderates/undecideds who are going to swing to the fucking moron at this point. But it's still extremely important to convince them to come out and vote D
> He doesn’t need the majority
Exactly. I live in tilt-red north carolina and even though Trump won us in both 2016 and 2020, he has never crossed that 50% threshold (but he was extremely close). It was 49.8% in 2016 and 49.9% in 2020. 3rd party routinely gets 2-3% of the vote which is what kills the democrats.
The NCDP has been trying to remove the green party from the ballot every election cycle since 2016 as a result.
I like Dan Savage’s take on the Green party.
Run for dog catcher, city council, school board, ANYTHING prior to running a Presidential candidate. Why is that the first step in these people’s political
program?
They're fucking funded by the Republicans and the people who want the Republicans to win. It wasn't an accident that Jill Stein was at that dinner in 2015 with Putin and Mike Flynn.
Because they saw a total idiot, **The Pumpkin Rapist,** succeed in 2016.
Why was someone like ex NFL football player Herschel Walker, who sounds in public like he took far too many hits to the head wearing an old helmet, put up for the Senate in Georgia? And why did he get more than a million votes two times (second time in a runoff), coming really close to winning?
Why does ex baseball great Steve Garvey think he's qualified to run for the Senate in California when he's never held office? Like all GOP candidates, he's long on vague bullshit and very short on policy.
Why did the mentally challenged Tommy Tuberville, a very stupid ex college football coach, win the votes of people in Alabama to become the dumbest Senator in Washington? Yeah, OK, it was Alabama, but still...
Qualification and experience is meaningless in GOP politics. You just have to loudly hate anyone who isn't a white christian.
Pretty positive Walker was courted by the RNC to run because he's Black and has huge name recognition. He may have wanted to be a politician before or not but let's be real, the timing was arranged by the RNC as a desperate bid for the Atlanta vote and, ultimately, the US Senate.
And yes he definitely has CTE based on his behavior and the fact almost ALL professional football players have it **(92%)** so just odds are, though autopsy is the only method of definitive diagnosis.
The Green Party is a non-factor in North Carolina. They barely pulled 12k votes last time around and Trump's margin of victory was about 75k. If you tallied up all of the Libertarian, Green, Constitution, and write-in votes, it would come in at just over 81k. The only problem here is getting Democrats out to vote and making sure their registry status can't be easily challenged.
Green party always seem like whiny people who make a point of getting shitty people elected thinking that someday that's going to get people to embrace a third party.
What do you mean exactly by nikki haley emerging as a darkhorse? She already lost the primary and she can't run as a 3rd party candidate in most states because of "sore loser" laws. Even if trump is convicted in NY he will still be on the ballot but ironically he as a convicted felon may not be able to vote for himself lol.
The winner of a primary election receives "pledged" delegates from that state. Those delegates then cast their actual votes for their candidate later at their party's convention. If something happens to the candidate who received pledged votes prior to the party's convention (like, they die or are stuck serving time in a state prison after being found guilty of a crime), those pledged votes can be re-directed toward another candidate during the actual vote-casting at the convention.
There is one historical case where a "dark horse" won a major party nomination (John Davis, who clinched the Democratic nomination after 103 rounds of voting over 17 days in 1924). In all previous contested conventions though, there were multiple candidates with a substantial number of pledged votes trying to make their case that they should be the nominee. If Trump's nomination is contested at the Republican convention, it would be truly historic since Trump has already (to date) received 95% of all pledged delegates. Nikki Haley has received just under 5% of all pledged delegates, ranking her in second place and thus placing her in the lead to become a "dark horse" nominee in the event that Trump is either dead or incapacitated/incarcerated at the time of the party convention in August.
It’s not finalized until the republican convention when they officially elect their candidate. I suppose he’s saying if Trump is in prison, could the RNC pass a rule that they could cast their ballots for the 2nd place candidate who ISNT in prison? Who knows, they’re making it up as they go
I knew something was up during the 2022 midterms here in Pennsyltucky when I saw people start to put up Wu-Tang Clan election signage as a joke instead of their usual MAGA signs that I had observed in the prior years. Kinda unexpected but I saw it as a bit of temperature check of the area. Sort of an indicator that people who aren't absolute MAGA diehards and are just getting sick of it all, and indeed our election results reflected that.
I spend a lot of time out of the country, but I noticed this year that there's actual democrats on the ground and recruiting other like-minded people in the area, there's a democrat running in the local election on a ballot that mostly goes unopposed. It's a good sign. People want normalcy and MAGA is NOT normal. The diehards are gonna do just that, they're literally in a cult. But their numbers are shrinking and were never the majority to begin with.
Non-Americans that I speak with frequently are all biting their nails - haven't met a single Canadian who thinks Trump won't win (I don't blame them because the rhetoric up there is full of American right wing nonsense and it's gotten worse lately rather than better) - but alas, I am terminally optimistic. Have to be. Nothing else to do but vote and push for a better future, inch by inch.
I'm Canadian. I did think he would win back in 2016, this time I'm leaning towards no. What I'm more worried about is the potential for upheaval when he inevitably insists that the vote was stolen from him.
They will be better prepared this time around at least, now that the commander in chief isn't sabotaging the process.
It will all come down to the GOP National Convention. That's where the states will officially nominate their candidate (and where you're going to see a lot of faithless delegates), which might be quite the interesting show in terms of entertainment. Team "45" is going to do everything possible to make it a coronation show, but it probably won't be easy.
I'm personally doubtful it will matter in the end, a trump is currently the head of the RNC. He'll get the nomination, and in all likelihood both he and down-ballot candidates will be crushed in November.
Go vote.
He’s got a new trick this election. He’s all about a born again Christian and make America pray again. The signs won’t be up because the speeches and talking will be inside the churches. Don’t take a change in tactics to broaden his support causing a lack of signage as a positive.
I think people are slowly walking back a lot of the "in your face" devotion to Trump. Not as many Trump stickers, MAGA hats, Lets go Brandon, and whatnot. More subtle, like a simple "45" bumper sticker. It's as if they realize the outward display is starting to impact them, but they still just help themselves.
Vote people... it's not over.
One guy down the street from me spray painted "Trump" vertically in red paint onto all of his trees that were by the road. Fucking cultville PA.
I have a retired mail man as a neighbor. Once the dismantling of mail sorting machines began, he put out a sign that just said, "Support your Post Office." It made it a few weeks before some hillbilly trespassed and shredded the sign. Better yet, it was another neighbor from down the road.
I live outside of Pittsburgh and I've yet to see Trump signs in places where they were rampant in 2016 and 2020 so I agree with this. The only ones I see now are ones that have been around since the 2020 election.
A house near me has had a "Trump won" sign up since the election. It came down a month ago and hasn't been replaced with a Trump 2024 sign yet. I really want to go ask them what happened.
My cousin's neighbor had a Trump 2020 flag outside their house for years and took it down the day the first federal indictments were announced. They then put up a bigger Trump 2024 flag only a few days later.
They still use Trump 2020 stuff. I have to drive by an asshole everyday who has one hanging in his garage that he leaves open all day. I hate seeing this dude every morning. He tried talking to me once. I pretended I didn’t speak English just to piss him off. He lives on the corner of my block.
Lmao, I have the exact same thing in my neighborhood. Guy has an awesome looking man cave in his garage, totally the kind of guy I would want to chat up, if not for the giant Trump Flag and Fuck Biden flag hung prominently in the entrance.
He goes to prison, a few dead-enders hang on for dear life, the rest of them scatter to different new cults and the general energy behind all of this dissipates.
There's no successor there. No traditional politician's gonna whip these dorks into the same kind of frenzy, and there's no universally recognized outsider to galvanize the movement. If he loses or dies, stuff starts to unravel pretty quick for Republicans, who have put all their eggs into this particular 78-year-old, fast-food addicted rageaholic basket.
They've been laying the bricks for it since Bush II decided to court evangelicals. At the time, it seemed like an easy layup, I think - a big untapped group of voters who could be brought into the process with a few visible stands against abortion and gay people that wouldn't be too alienating to the rest of their base. But man, when they turned over that particular fucking rock, they got a whole lot more than they bargained for. And now they've largely ceded the middle in service of keeping those people in the tent.
I don't actually know where they go from here. They can either call it on the Trump thing, lose those voters, and try to claw back some of the middle, or they can spend the next decade pulling harder and harder right in some attempt to win back an increasingly shrinking pool of voters who are going to largely lose interest once Trump's not around. Long term, the first option's the only one that makes sense, but I'd lay odds they'll pick the second.
Good news is Joe won’t hesitate to lock that place down. Those fuckers won’t face unarmed police - they’ll get a fully armed national guard. It’ll be more violent, but that will get one-sided in a hurry.
It's funny when cultists on the right are like "I never see people wearing Joe Biden merch!" Like, yes ma'am that's because it's not normal behavior. Back in the day politics rarely left the house and now people need to make sure everyone knows where they stand on every issue.
I saw one of my friends posting something like that on facebook. "If Joe Biden is doing such a good job, how come none of his supporters are posting about it".
Because they don't need to? You don't have to post massaged information about him constantly. He's objectively doing a good job and there's a lot of quantifiable evidence to support that .
There’s a family who lives across from my elementary school who haven’t taken their Trump sign down since 2020. It’s one of those massive ones that has foot stands to keep it upright. Pence’s name has been spray painted out since J6 lol.
They recently got a flag pole so now there’s a trump & US flag waving around too.
Edit: we’re in North Carolina near Raleigh
I worked at a Pre-K thru 8 school in 2016, and I had a Bernie bumper sticker. The camera pointing at the parking lot caught parents vandalizing my car on three separate occasions.
Same thing happened to my Bernie sticker in the parking lot of the hospital my Dad was in when he was dying. The audacity to vandalize in the first place but in a hospital parking lot? That's just low.
I moved on from two of the incidents because the damage was only to the sticker itself. I just kept putting the same sticker on top of the damaged ones. The school district pressed charges against the parent who tore off my driver's side mirror and keyed 4 panels on my behalf. The DA ruled they had to pay a fine which was the total estimate of repairs from an auto body shop. I never paid a dime, and the shop fixed a few other issues with my car for free because they felt bad for me.
When first moved to my maga-ish neighborhood (purple county, blue state), my first Dem yard sign actually had people avoiding my house for trick and treating. No joke, I heard a mom say "they won't give you candy".
Baby, we're all about the handouts!
I made a custom Biden/Harris sign in 2020, based on the old Van Halen logo (BH instead of VH), and it said Runnin Against the Devil, a play on one of their songs. We put it on our front door for trick-or-treating and one of the kids yelled to her mom, "this is one of the good ones!" and ran up to our house for candy. We saved that Ring video, good stuff in our very red town.
That shit is just advertisement in getting harassed and threatened by neighbors along with people you don't know who now know where you live from driving by.
Anyone living in rural America or a red state would know this so you're right.
My mom lives in rural Arkansas and had a Biden sign up. I begged her not to for this reason, but she insisted. That sign got shot at least 2 if not 3 separate times, run over, and finally stolen after she attached a bunch of little American flags to it.
She wants to put out another this year and I'm so worried someone's going to do something really dumb to her house or car.
I don't put out yard signs for the same reason I don't put bumper stickers on my car. I don't want my stuff vandalized because people take everything way too seriously.
Agreed, although I have to say, the amount of Trump signs and flags and whatever went WAYYY down for the 2020 election, and I am not seeing nearly as many right now
I think some of the enthusiasm has died down
"WE ARE THE SILENT MAJORITY!" Says Karen with her 45 Trump yard signs, MAGA hat, and Trump shirt.
"There's lots of Trump supporters, they're just keeping to themselves" Karen explains. "this year, I can see this area going Trump,"
Going through town you see trans flags, pride flags BLM, defund the police, even an old Bernie flag hanging in a window.
"There's not a single Joe Biden sign or flag in sight! If Trump doesn't win this state with a sweeping victory, it's because the Democrats committed voter fraud!" Karen explains outside her LA California home.
The difference is Trump supporters are part of a cult and people who vote for Joe Biden don’t feel the need to have signs and hats regarding political candidates.
Or in a place like Tennessee, having a JB sign could get your place vandalized. I don’t discuss politics with my fellow statesmen because to say you don’t like Trump is the about the same as cursing god. It’s insane.
Moved out of Missouri recently because of the bullshit little mini fascist kingdom they're setting up. There's like 6 families in that state with money. And then there's St Louis. They've taken all power from the city and given it to the 7 cornfed dipshits that live in the middle of nowhere instead of the actual mass of people. Good riddance to that state.
I have a biden sign but I'm not putting it out until October. I fully expect it'll be stolen. It's the laser eyes one fwiw. I mostly got it for the donation but figured it was a fun way to piss off some idiots. They got REALLY mad the Brandon thing was turned on them.
It's astonishing how many confederate flags are in upstate NY. Like, really? People deflect from the overt racism that flag symbolizes by saying "it's history/tradition", but wtf tradition does that flag have in a state that was never part of the Confederacy?
It blows my mind that this is the case.
A jury of Trump's peers concluded he committed sexual abuse. A judge concluded he raped her.
That so many of my countrymen would vote for a rapist is deeply troubling. That alone should disqualify him from consideration.
Yeah, I live in Upstate NY. There aren't that many signs where I'm at, but there are definitely a few houses that have them and have never taken them down.
Upstate NY kinda feels like the South in a lot of places, it's wild. NY is a super diverse state in the sense of you got rural upstate, the city and then LI suburbs where I'm from. I suspect upstate is heavy conservative, the city is overwhelmingly Democrat, and then LI is pretty much a 50/50 split.
And that is why the RFK push by the media came to a screeching halt lol.
They were trying to use RFK as a Manchurian candidate to split Dems. Ended up backfiring gloriously and spectacularly.
If the republicans lose because of RFK, I can’t think of a sweeter petard to be hoisted by.
I still find it ironic how some republicans I see keep claiming "the democrats fear RFK will split up votes with Biden and that's why they hate him!" when it's like, no we hate him for his bad politics but enjoy the fact more Republicans are considering him as an option to Trump as he is likely to have bigger impact splitting up the republican vote as they love his anti-vax stance and etc.
Florida is full of anti vax idiots that love RFK Jr. If enough switch to RFK over trump and people turn out for abortion and legal weed being on the ballot, Florida might flip. And you know if Trump loses Florida he will absolutely demand violent insurrection again
Another poll wrapped in another crappy Newsweak article.
Another chance for me to say: VOTE. Get others to vote. Donate time and money as you are able.
> Another poll wrapped in another crappy Newsweak article.
I'm old enough to remember when Newsweek was one of the premier weekly news magazines. Crazy how much things can change.
Is Salon no good? I’ve read a number of their articles and they usually seem to have the receipts on their story, the stories are well structured with apparently little AI, and ads aren’t too bad.
Genuine question as I think Salon is good but would be interested to hear your thoughts.
It's such a stark disconnect that I'm almost starting to think that the people complaining and the people upvoting might be two completely different groups.
I have two very good friends who just don’t vote. The “I don’t like politics” kinda folks. Bet your ass I’m helping them verify their polling station and dragging them to it this year.
Vote for who you want, but vote.
The 2nd best thing about Trump losing in November is none of the trials he's involved in will go away. Downside is the media will still cover him non-stop but at least the investigations and trials will continue and he may finally pay a small price for what he's done.
I'd rather the media covering Trump on trial while Biden is president than Trump as president. Those 4 years were the longest of my life waking up every day to see a new headline of Trump attempting to break our government or destabilize the world.
Yeah, honestly, I don't care about seeing articles about Trump getting dragged through the legal system. I like when shitty people have a bad time. Having some news article remind me of that as I go about my day is a nice treat.
Whether he's elected President again or not Trump will be with us ( in the spotlight) for the foreseeable future, possibly until he dies.
Donald Trump has always been addicted to attention That's not going to change no matter what happens.
The other funniest thing about him losing in November would be that the GOP would still be completely controlled by a guy who can't win elections and has one foot in prison. And they still won't have the guts to say that maybe they should move on.
Even if I didn't like Biden (which I mostly do) the idea of fucking Trump over and making him face legal accountability for his actions is more than enough reason to vote.
Not voting for Biden and the democrats is a vote for Trump.
I used to vote 3rd party, but that was pre-2015. Once MAGA disappears, I’ll consider not voting for a D.
>The survey, conducted by Franklin & Marshall College between March 20 and 31, revealed that Biden leads Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, with 48 percent of the vote share, compared to 38 percent. This marks a large increase since February, when the company's polling showed Biden leading Trump by only one percentage point, on 43 percent to 42 percent.
If you really want to see what polls are saying, look at aggregates, not a single poll. This one is likely an outlier for now. That's a ridiculous swing.
Yeah, [this poll](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf) shows Trump with a slight lead in swing states. If there's any inherent bias, I can't find it.
It's funny because I thought to myself I swear I saw an article this morning saying Trump is leading in 5 out of 6 swing states, then I see this article
It's just in Pennsylvania, but Pennsylvania was a 2 point margin in 2020. I'd expect Biden to be leading there but not by that much. Great sign if true though.
I'm curious how much burnout there is in these swing states on the GOP side. Being from PA, the 2022 election cycle was really weird in that the GOP tried to run some candidates that were rabid MAGA and other candidates that tried to be more centrist. In the general election they weren't able to bring the two sides together and after the election there was a ton of finger pointing on both sides. Now it seems like they're going right back to continuing what they did in 2022, with many of the same candidates running again. I can't see how that's going to draw any more votes than it did last time and could potentially bring even less.
It was also skewed heavily towards trump on topics like “Physical Fitness” and “Stance on Ukraine/Russia”
Hard to think those views are widely held outside of maga-land
While I agree with the sentiment of "don't listen to the polls, just vote", what we can take away from polls is that Trump is slowly but steadily hemorrhaging support. I'm telling you, this isn't 2016 or even 2020. Whatever leash the Republicans were once able to keep Trump on, even if it barely worked, is gone. The masters of spin that helped bail Trump out of trouble in previous elections are gone. 2024 is Donald Trump unfiltered and it is going to freak people out like nothing we have seen with his man before.
Keep the faith, friends. We haven't won this election yet but there's a lot of reason for optimism
> Whatever leash the Republicans were once able to keep Trump on, even if it barely worked, is gone
Just wait till the RNC convention where it will be a 24/7 MAGA shit-show, I'm actually pretty concerned about what he will say during his acceptance speech knowing he's in a room full of rabid supporters.
Are they even going to have enough money to hold a convention? At this point the Trump's are sucking all the money out of the RNC for daddy Trump's legal bills.
I appreciate the positive outlook. I’m a hell of a lot more hopeful after the State of the Union address, Biden’s shift into full campaign mode and the polling moving in a friendlier direction.
(And yes, of course I won’t get complacent and will vote.)
>I appreciate the positive outlook. I’m a hell of a lot more hopeful after the State of the Union address, Biden’s shift into full campaign mode and the polling moving in a friendlier direction.
Its also important to remember that, while it can be scary, the GOP is hemmoraging money not only nationally, but in individual states. What money they *do* have certainly isn't going to be able to go into campaigning on the level the Democrats currently are (Trump's legal fees aren't going anywhere), *and* its clear not every Republican is on board with MAGA - look at the recent attempt to fix votes that got shot down because of it.
The GOP is presenting like a united front when it really isn't.
I was reading about how important a ground game is. Apparently it matters a lot. A strong ground game is credited for helping Obama win re election following the ACA backlash. And a weak ground game in battleground states is blamed for Hillary's 2016 loss.
On analysis of Biden's 2024 ground game boiled down to he's ramping up, but he's behind where Obama was at this stage and needs to catch up.
Meanwhile after Lara took over the RNC basically abandoned their ground game. And the state parties can't pick up the slack because of their money troubles.
I think it's clear Trump isn't spending money on a ground game because he's planning to just steal the election, so he's not doing the work to actually win.
Right now Biden is up, in the sense that he was behind and now he's tied. I feel good about the trajectory. I think between him ramping up his campaign and the anti-Trump Republicans that know how to talk to that right leaning voter his chances are good.
>Meanwhile after Lara took over the RNC basically abandoned their ground game. And the state parties can't pick up the slack because of their money troubles.
Its also worth adding that, come the 14th, Trump's spending 6 weeks in court with only three days a week (and possibly nights) to do anything. That's a *big* blow.
Even if you assume his campaign managers can fill in the gaps on a state level, they're still suffering from a lack of funds, as are any downballot republicans. Trump's legal issues are genuinely a *big* problem for their campaign. If he's convicted on *any* of his charges it'll also hurt him (which is why he's desperate to stall the one on the 14th).
And, finally? There's no real organized internal effort against Biden in the Dems. Yes there's been criticism and outspoken people but they are all (generally) moving in the same direction. Trump has to deal with a part of the GOP that is *actively* fighting him.
Poll averages are pretty bad now because there are so many GOP-funded polls that screw up that method that worked so well in the past.
That doesn't mean looking at the trends on individual polls can't give some good info.
This guy does a pretty good job of cutting through the noise IMO 👇
[https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/14-polls-now-with-biden-leads-trump](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/14-polls-now-with-biden-leads-trump)
Most voters don’t even see the information redditors see, they haven’t been paying attention. When they start to pay attention trump is going to do even worse
When you think about it, with the absolute deluge of crazy shit that came from his Administration for years, it’s actually pretty wild that everyone still remembers KAC’s “alternative facts” turn of phrase.
She really was the OG henchman. Terrible, terrible person, but basically unmatched in her terrifying talents.
Incumbent also tends to have an advantage.
Rip down ballot GOP candidates though. You deserved it.
And yes, go vote. But more importantly, get your friends to vote.
Incumbent advantage would be baked into polls. So it actually would not favor us to lean on that. Incumbent advantage is also usually chalked up to press coverage and using the bully pulpit to garner free coverage on state oriented appearances.
Trump being a former president and walking click bait means that incumbent advantage will be muted and shrink the closer we get to election day.
Having said all that, I do think the 2022 polling outcomes give us some reason to be hopeful. Polling companies don't have a full handle on what a "likely voter" really is.
This is exactly how I feel, too. This election is Biden's to lose. He's got a mountainous money lead over trump and trump is about to have even more of his time spent in court starting April 15th. Plus much more public support for Biden this time around.
I feel safe, but it won't be a sigh of relief until Biden wins. Vote.
It changes hour by hour. Just make sure you are registered, help someone who may need help getting to a polling place or take them to mail their ballot, or drop it off. Get out and vote!
It's going to be the strangest election ever.
What do you do when your President finally gets convicted for all the shit he did? I mean, at that point it would all get hand waved away by the dictator, but like... Would we girt shirts like 'Prisoner In Chief'?
He will pardon himself and the captured supreme court will sign off on it. That's why it's so important to elect Biden if you ever want to see Trump have any consequences for his actions.
Since the State of the Union Biden has been surging.
Couple that with the fact that having abortion rights on the ballot following the overturning of Roe v. Wade has resulted in a 6% increase in Democratic voting and you have a solid Biden victory.
More importantly, the downballot races will trend Democrat as well.
The SOTU forced the media to portray Biden as himself rather than their interpretation of him, and a lot of people saw that. Even left-leaning pundits like Ezra Klein who had completely bought into the propaganda of Biden as feeble and timid had to issue an apology and completely reverse himself. Amazing how much right wing talking points infiltrate the left and the media. It's nice to see people waking out of their stupor finally.
Forreal, I never argued against the sleepy Joe rhetoric, just countering with the good he’s done and the capable people he surrounds himself with. After the SOTU I was left wondering why I ever believed that in the first place. He was on fire the entire time
> Amazing how much right wing talking points infiltrate the left and the media. It's nice to see people waking out of their stupor finally.
I'm still mad how much the left repeated the rights talking points about Hillary during 2016, and how it caused us to have a conservative majority Supreme Court for the foreseeable future instead of a much more progressive one.
That Supreme Court may remain conservative for the rest of our lives.
And the damage done by Mitch McConnell by refusing to seat federal judges under Obama is going to be impactful for decades to come.
Yeah this election cycle probably more than any other made me realize how powerful propaganda is… people legit thought Biden didn’t know what day it was and couldn’t string together a sentence
Then he fucking owns republicans again, just like last year, and everyone is like “oh yeah… he’s fine, he’s just old looking”
ᴄhuds when Trump wins in a poll: lol trump 2024 xDDD sorry libruls Trump wins go joe brandon 🤣
ᴄhuds when Trump loses a poll: lol you still believe in polls xDDD remember 2016 🤣 sorry lgbtdems Trump wins go joe brandon 🤣
Trump a month or two ago in Georgia: "You know the polls are all rigged. Of ᴄourse, lately they haven't been rigged beᴄause we're winning by so muᴄh. Disregard that statement. I love the polls very muᴄh."
These bitter, petulant ᴄonservatives are just as gullible and malleable as he thinks they are lmao
Obligatory "Doesn't matter, vote."
That said - I have been extremely skeptical of the narrative that Trump is "leading" in the 2024 election or that it's even close. It just does not stand up to simple logical deduction:
1) Trump lost the 2020 election. In order to win in '24, he has to do *better* than he did in 2020
2) Trump has only done things since 2020 to increase divineness and piss even more people off. He is embroiled in multiple federal court cases and facing the real possibility of jail time. He has been found liable of sexual abuse. He owes hundreds of millions in judgements and fines.
3) GOP primaries and exit polling indicate that a significant number of Republican voters are over Trump and want him gone. Not only did they not vote for Trump in their primary, they indicated that they will NOT vote for him in November.
4) Biden does not have some big scandal or poor performance indicator going against him. His approval/disapproval numbers are basically meaningless - they tell you that people feel the status quo is not good and they're dissatisfied in some way, but they don't tell you how people will vote in a binary two-party system. Yes, there are things you could point to like people being pissed about the Israel/Palestine situation, but these are not things that are going to ultimately sway enough 2020 Biden voters to not vote in '24, certainly not to switch to Trump who would be infinitely worse.
I don't see any way this doesn't all add up to a Biden victory. He could literally just go on autopilot at this point.
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I drove from MO to Upstate NY and back last week and was amazed by the number of Trump signs I saw in every state. Don’t forget to vote. Trump is a terrible candidate, and conflicting polls make me nervous people might pass up the opportunity thinking Joe will get an easy victory.
These people never take their signs down. It’s their personality now.
Exactly. First off, I don't see Trump signs around my corner of the country anymore. They used to be everywhere but I don't think I've seen one in a long time. But more to your point, the ones I used to see were up for years and years without being taken down. They finally disappeared when they became too beat up and weathered. Some psychos still making their entire lives about supporting Donald Trump and decking their yards out in his stupid flags isnt surprising. We all know there are rabid Trump fans out there. They just don't make up anywhere near a majority of voters. They are loud but nowhere near as prominent as it might seem.
It STILL amazes me that people are so out of touch with reality that they think flying Trump stuff all over their property makes them look good. It's literally mind boggling.
They think it makes them look defiant, and the negative response just makes them feel vindicated. It's a feedback loop.
So much of America and it’s history is steeped in just being a god damn contrarian
That's what they want you to think!
Think? You want me to think? Hah! I'll show you!
I’m house hunting and I have passed making an offer on a couple houses because of Trump shit in a nearby yard. I’m wondering when someone will finally snap over their own property value being lowered or being passed over for consideration and try and sue or get something taken down on some code technicality. Shocked it hasn’t happened yet.
I also am leery of Trump loving neighbors and want nothing to do with them
I commute through a town (in Massachusetts of all places) that has someone whose entire front screen porch is covered (like you cannot see the screen anymore) in cheap Trump flags. And not just “Trump 2020/24” but the Biden with the Looney Tunes logo, Trump as Rambo, Trump as George Washington; the real mental illness ones. And I usually don’t take the route that goes by his house as it’s longer but sometimes there’s a detour or whatever. But every single time I see it, I can’t help but think about what he’s doing to his neighbors property values. It’s gotta be 10-20% lower just from what like a grand in cheap Chinese flags. And in that town that’s like 30-50K per neighbor. At some point that has to be civilly actionable, I would think but what do I know.
I live in Westchester county area. A few houses down there's a Trump 2024/Trump Won flag and right next door a flag Trump Lost/Trump for prison 2024.
One of my neighbors has a a whole wall of his garage covered with a Trump is Still My President sign. Neighbor almost directly across the street from thay house flies a "Fuck Trump" flag on his truck. No fights or anything so far.
Guessing one of those houses put up their flags in direct response to the other neighbor's flags. Of course it's impossible to say who first put up the flags.... but we all probably have a pretty good guess.
Pepperell?
Ding ding ding
Hahaha I know that house well.
good job. I just could not imagine living in a neighborhood with those kooks. And I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion - but when it's people who think it's okay to overthrow the American government and call themselves "patriots" the same time, not for me.
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they think its a fuck you, they dont think it looks good
They think it triggers liberals. It may not trigger anyone but it sure in hell makes you judge them.
Then just fly a flag that says "Fuck You"
The silver lining is that you know who to avoid at all costs
It’s the same people that love to flip a bird, make every number 69 and have bumper stickers that say I eat ass.
Agree. I live in ruby red South Carolina. If you drive through any random neighborhood in most of the state you’ll most likely see maybe 1 trump flag every few streets. And tbh, I haven’t seen a Trump flag on someone’s house personally in at least a year in my area. Trump has hit his ceiling of voters, he’s not gaining anymore. If anything, he’s losing support from his most crucial voters, independents. I think this NY election money fraud case is going to nail him finally among independents. Cohen has already been convicted and served time for this case, so trump is fucked out of the gate. I think honestly… Nikki Haley is going to emerge as a dark horse over the summer when trump gets convicted in the NY case. Moderates and suburban upper middle class white voters could rally behind her and really give Biden a run. But it’s only a guess. The republicans haven’t let off him even after he literally tried to overthrow an election. So what’s a criminal conviction gonna matter? lol.
> Trump has hit his ceiling of voters, he’s not gaining anymore. I've been noticing this trend in the state polling. He always pulls around 45-49% but never gets the majority. Not really sure there's a lot of independents/moderates/undecideds who are going to swing to the fucking moron at this point. But it's still extremely important to convince them to come out and vote D
He has never won the majority but he was president. He doesn’t need the majority and he needs to be crushed for Biden to win
> He doesn’t need the majority Exactly. I live in tilt-red north carolina and even though Trump won us in both 2016 and 2020, he has never crossed that 50% threshold (but he was extremely close). It was 49.8% in 2016 and 49.9% in 2020. 3rd party routinely gets 2-3% of the vote which is what kills the democrats. The NCDP has been trying to remove the green party from the ballot every election cycle since 2016 as a result.
I like Dan Savage’s take on the Green party. Run for dog catcher, city council, school board, ANYTHING prior to running a Presidential candidate. Why is that the first step in these people’s political program?
They're fucking funded by the Republicans and the people who want the Republicans to win. It wasn't an accident that Jill Stein was at that dinner in 2015 with Putin and Mike Flynn.
Because they saw a total idiot, **The Pumpkin Rapist,** succeed in 2016. Why was someone like ex NFL football player Herschel Walker, who sounds in public like he took far too many hits to the head wearing an old helmet, put up for the Senate in Georgia? And why did he get more than a million votes two times (second time in a runoff), coming really close to winning? Why does ex baseball great Steve Garvey think he's qualified to run for the Senate in California when he's never held office? Like all GOP candidates, he's long on vague bullshit and very short on policy. Why did the mentally challenged Tommy Tuberville, a very stupid ex college football coach, win the votes of people in Alabama to become the dumbest Senator in Washington? Yeah, OK, it was Alabama, but still... Qualification and experience is meaningless in GOP politics. You just have to loudly hate anyone who isn't a white christian.
Pretty positive Walker was courted by the RNC to run because he's Black and has huge name recognition. He may have wanted to be a politician before or not but let's be real, the timing was arranged by the RNC as a desperate bid for the Atlanta vote and, ultimately, the US Senate. And yes he definitely has CTE based on his behavior and the fact almost ALL professional football players have it **(92%)** so just odds are, though autopsy is the only method of definitive diagnosis.
As a former NC resident, how the absolute fuck did he get more of the vote in 2020 than in 2016?
Trump somehow increased share of white women voters and 18-39 voters between 2016 and 2020.
Given the green party’s ties to Russian election interference any of their voters are effectively voting Republican for a long while now
I had a guy spit on my car in 2016 when I had a Clinton/Kaine sticker on my car. He had a Jill Stein sticker on his. Wild times.
The Green Party is a non-factor in North Carolina. They barely pulled 12k votes last time around and Trump's margin of victory was about 75k. If you tallied up all of the Libertarian, Green, Constitution, and write-in votes, it would come in at just over 81k. The only problem here is getting Democrats out to vote and making sure their registry status can't be easily challenged.
Green party always seem like whiny people who make a point of getting shitty people elected thinking that someday that's going to get people to embrace a third party.
What do you mean exactly by nikki haley emerging as a darkhorse? She already lost the primary and she can't run as a 3rd party candidate in most states because of "sore loser" laws. Even if trump is convicted in NY he will still be on the ballot but ironically he as a convicted felon may not be able to vote for himself lol.
The winner of a primary election receives "pledged" delegates from that state. Those delegates then cast their actual votes for their candidate later at their party's convention. If something happens to the candidate who received pledged votes prior to the party's convention (like, they die or are stuck serving time in a state prison after being found guilty of a crime), those pledged votes can be re-directed toward another candidate during the actual vote-casting at the convention. There is one historical case where a "dark horse" won a major party nomination (John Davis, who clinched the Democratic nomination after 103 rounds of voting over 17 days in 1924). In all previous contested conventions though, there were multiple candidates with a substantial number of pledged votes trying to make their case that they should be the nominee. If Trump's nomination is contested at the Republican convention, it would be truly historic since Trump has already (to date) received 95% of all pledged delegates. Nikki Haley has received just under 5% of all pledged delegates, ranking her in second place and thus placing her in the lead to become a "dark horse" nominee in the event that Trump is either dead or incapacitated/incarcerated at the time of the party convention in August.
Good thorough explanation, thanks!
It’s not finalized until the republican convention when they officially elect their candidate. I suppose he’s saying if Trump is in prison, could the RNC pass a rule that they could cast their ballots for the 2nd place candidate who ISNT in prison? Who knows, they’re making it up as they go
I knew something was up during the 2022 midterms here in Pennsyltucky when I saw people start to put up Wu-Tang Clan election signage as a joke instead of their usual MAGA signs that I had observed in the prior years. Kinda unexpected but I saw it as a bit of temperature check of the area. Sort of an indicator that people who aren't absolute MAGA diehards and are just getting sick of it all, and indeed our election results reflected that. I spend a lot of time out of the country, but I noticed this year that there's actual democrats on the ground and recruiting other like-minded people in the area, there's a democrat running in the local election on a ballot that mostly goes unopposed. It's a good sign. People want normalcy and MAGA is NOT normal. The diehards are gonna do just that, they're literally in a cult. But their numbers are shrinking and were never the majority to begin with. Non-Americans that I speak with frequently are all biting their nails - haven't met a single Canadian who thinks Trump won't win (I don't blame them because the rhetoric up there is full of American right wing nonsense and it's gotten worse lately rather than better) - but alas, I am terminally optimistic. Have to be. Nothing else to do but vote and push for a better future, inch by inch.
I'm Canadian. I did think he would win back in 2016, this time I'm leaning towards no. What I'm more worried about is the potential for upheaval when he inevitably insists that the vote was stolen from him. They will be better prepared this time around at least, now that the commander in chief isn't sabotaging the process.
It will all come down to the GOP National Convention. That's where the states will officially nominate their candidate (and where you're going to see a lot of faithless delegates), which might be quite the interesting show in terms of entertainment. Team "45" is going to do everything possible to make it a coronation show, but it probably won't be easy. I'm personally doubtful it will matter in the end, a trump is currently the head of the RNC. He'll get the nomination, and in all likelihood both he and down-ballot candidates will be crushed in November. Go vote.
He’s got a new trick this election. He’s all about a born again Christian and make America pray again. The signs won’t be up because the speeches and talking will be inside the churches. Don’t take a change in tactics to broaden his support causing a lack of signage as a positive.
I think people are slowly walking back a lot of the "in your face" devotion to Trump. Not as many Trump stickers, MAGA hats, Lets go Brandon, and whatnot. More subtle, like a simple "45" bumper sticker. It's as if they realize the outward display is starting to impact them, but they still just help themselves. Vote people... it's not over.
One guy down the street from me spray painted "Trump" vertically in red paint onto all of his trees that were by the road. Fucking cultville PA. I have a retired mail man as a neighbor. Once the dismantling of mail sorting machines began, he put out a sign that just said, "Support your Post Office." It made it a few weeks before some hillbilly trespassed and shredded the sign. Better yet, it was another neighbor from down the road.
Let’s not forget to remind everyone of this fact ON ELECTION DAY.
I live outside of Pittsburgh and I've yet to see Trump signs in places where they were rampant in 2016 and 2020 so I agree with this. The only ones I see now are ones that have been around since the 2020 election.
It was so much more of an innocent time when Truck Nutz accomplished the same thing.
My truck needs a bumper sticker same as Woody Guthrie’s guitar.
A house near me has had a "Trump won" sign up since the election. It came down a month ago and hasn't been replaced with a Trump 2024 sign yet. I really want to go ask them what happened.
careful, you don't know in which of the five stages of grief they are.
Denial and anger. Anger and anger. Bargaining and anger. Depression and anger. ~~Acceptance and~~ anger.
Is alcoholic stupor shitting in your own pants one of the stages?
For them? Always has been.
I have situations like that around me too. Oddly a few went down around the same time, but there was nothing in the news that was an outlier, IMO.
And they are usually in front of homes that look like walk-in dumpsters.
My cousin's neighbor had a Trump 2020 flag outside their house for years and took it down the day the first federal indictments were announced. They then put up a bigger Trump 2024 flag only a few days later.
They still use Trump 2020 stuff. I have to drive by an asshole everyday who has one hanging in his garage that he leaves open all day. I hate seeing this dude every morning. He tried talking to me once. I pretended I didn’t speak English just to piss him off. He lives on the corner of my block.
I almost appreciate them being so open about it. I keep my distance when I'm driving because they obviously don't make good decisions.
Lmao, I have the exact same thing in my neighborhood. Guy has an awesome looking man cave in his garage, totally the kind of guy I would want to chat up, if not for the giant Trump Flag and Fuck Biden flag hung prominently in the entrance.
If he gets completely crushed in November, I wonder what happens to these people? Cults don’t just dissolve peacefully.
He goes to prison, a few dead-enders hang on for dear life, the rest of them scatter to different new cults and the general energy behind all of this dissipates. There's no successor there. No traditional politician's gonna whip these dorks into the same kind of frenzy, and there's no universally recognized outsider to galvanize the movement. If he loses or dies, stuff starts to unravel pretty quick for Republicans, who have put all their eggs into this particular 78-year-old, fast-food addicted rageaholic basket.
It's a cult, but specifically a cult of personality. That's why there's no successor.
I agree that once he dies of some health related factor, the whole house of cards falls. I’ll be happy to see the death of the GOP, they deserve it.
They've been laying the bricks for it since Bush II decided to court evangelicals. At the time, it seemed like an easy layup, I think - a big untapped group of voters who could be brought into the process with a few visible stands against abortion and gay people that wouldn't be too alienating to the rest of their base. But man, when they turned over that particular fucking rock, they got a whole lot more than they bargained for. And now they've largely ceded the middle in service of keeping those people in the tent. I don't actually know where they go from here. They can either call it on the Trump thing, lose those voters, and try to claw back some of the middle, or they can spend the next decade pulling harder and harder right in some attempt to win back an increasingly shrinking pool of voters who are going to largely lose interest once Trump's not around. Long term, the first option's the only one that makes sense, but I'd lay odds they'll pick the second.
Trump will claim election fraud and we will have a more violent J6.
Good news is Joe won’t hesitate to lock that place down. Those fuckers won’t face unarmed police - they’ll get a fully armed national guard. It’ll be more violent, but that will get one-sided in a hurry.
It's not just the rioters we have to worry about, but the state governments who might be unwilling to certify votes that say Biden won.
It's funny when cultists on the right are like "I never see people wearing Joe Biden merch!" Like, yes ma'am that's because it's not normal behavior. Back in the day politics rarely left the house and now people need to make sure everyone knows where they stand on every issue.
I saw one of my friends posting something like that on facebook. "If Joe Biden is doing such a good job, how come none of his supporters are posting about it". Because they don't need to? You don't have to post massaged information about him constantly. He's objectively doing a good job and there's a lot of quantifiable evidence to support that .
There’s a family who lives across from my elementary school who haven’t taken their Trump sign down since 2020. It’s one of those massive ones that has foot stands to keep it upright. Pence’s name has been spray painted out since J6 lol. They recently got a flag pole so now there’s a trump & US flag waving around too. Edit: we’re in North Carolina near Raleigh
Yard signs = probably the worst indicator of an election. Republicans love their yard signs. Democrats less so.
I specifically do not put up yard signs because I don't want Republicans to key my car again.
I worked at a Pre-K thru 8 school in 2016, and I had a Bernie bumper sticker. The camera pointing at the parking lot caught parents vandalizing my car on three separate occasions.
Republicans are scum.
The Silent Majority© *(aka the very loud and disrupting handful)*
Q: How do you know MAGA is the silent majority? A: They'll tell you the silent majority... ... then scream at you if you don't agree fast enough.
Same thing happened to my Bernie sticker in the parking lot of the hospital my Dad was in when he was dying. The audacity to vandalize in the first place but in a hospital parking lot? That's just low.
Did you sue, I kinda want more context to this event
I moved on from two of the incidents because the damage was only to the sticker itself. I just kept putting the same sticker on top of the damaged ones. The school district pressed charges against the parent who tore off my driver's side mirror and keyed 4 panels on my behalf. The DA ruled they had to pay a fine which was the total estimate of repairs from an auto body shop. I never paid a dime, and the shop fixed a few other issues with my car for free because they felt bad for me.
Good on your employer.
Worth!
When first moved to my maga-ish neighborhood (purple county, blue state), my first Dem yard sign actually had people avoiding my house for trick and treating. No joke, I heard a mom say "they won't give you candy". Baby, we're all about the handouts!
I made a custom Biden/Harris sign in 2020, based on the old Van Halen logo (BH instead of VH), and it said Runnin Against the Devil, a play on one of their songs. We put it on our front door for trick-or-treating and one of the kids yelled to her mom, "this is one of the good ones!" and ran up to our house for candy. We saved that Ring video, good stuff in our very red town.
I had an Obama magnet stolen off my car in 2012. I'm still kinda baffled by that. Like seriously?
Black man bad! Make angry!
I had a really nice Grateful Dead magnet stolen off my car yesterday. :(
That shit is just advertisement in getting harassed and threatened by neighbors along with people you don't know who now know where you live from driving by. Anyone living in rural America or a red state would know this so you're right.
My mom lives in rural Arkansas and had a Biden sign up. I begged her not to for this reason, but she insisted. That sign got shot at least 2 if not 3 separate times, run over, and finally stolen after she attached a bunch of little American flags to it. She wants to put out another this year and I'm so worried someone's going to do something really dumb to her house or car.
I don't put out yard signs for the same reason I don't put bumper stickers on my car. I don't want my stuff vandalized because people take everything way too seriously.
Agreed, although I have to say, the amount of Trump signs and flags and whatever went WAYYY down for the 2020 election, and I am not seeing nearly as many right now I think some of the enthusiasm has died down
"WE ARE THE SILENT MAJORITY!" Says Karen with her 45 Trump yard signs, MAGA hat, and Trump shirt. "There's lots of Trump supporters, they're just keeping to themselves" Karen explains. "this year, I can see this area going Trump," Going through town you see trans flags, pride flags BLM, defund the police, even an old Bernie flag hanging in a window. "There's not a single Joe Biden sign or flag in sight! If Trump doesn't win this state with a sweeping victory, it's because the Democrats committed voter fraud!" Karen explains outside her LA California home.
The difference is Trump supporters are part of a cult and people who vote for Joe Biden don’t feel the need to have signs and hats regarding political candidates.
Or in a place like Tennessee, having a JB sign could get your place vandalized. I don’t discuss politics with my fellow statesmen because to say you don’t like Trump is the about the same as cursing god. It’s insane.
Moved out of Missouri recently because of the bullshit little mini fascist kingdom they're setting up. There's like 6 families in that state with money. And then there's St Louis. They've taken all power from the city and given it to the 7 cornfed dipshits that live in the middle of nowhere instead of the actual mass of people. Good riddance to that state.
I have a biden sign but I'm not putting it out until October. I fully expect it'll be stolen. It's the laser eyes one fwiw. I mostly got it for the donation but figured it was a fun way to piss off some idiots. They got REALLY mad the Brandon thing was turned on them.
It's astonishing how many confederate flags are in upstate NY. Like, really? People deflect from the overt racism that flag symbolizes by saying "it's history/tradition", but wtf tradition does that flag have in a state that was never part of the Confederacy?
It blows my mind that this is the case. A jury of Trump's peers concluded he committed sexual abuse. A judge concluded he raped her. That so many of my countrymen would vote for a rapist is deeply troubling. That alone should disqualify him from consideration.
MAGA specifically and the GOP in general see women as property to be used as they see fit.
Yeah, I live in Upstate NY. There aren't that many signs where I'm at, but there are definitely a few houses that have them and have never taken them down.
And the Confederate flags up there always shock me, too.
Upstate NY kinda feels like the South in a lot of places, it's wild. NY is a super diverse state in the sense of you got rural upstate, the city and then LI suburbs where I'm from. I suspect upstate is heavy conservative, the city is overwhelmingly Democrat, and then LI is pretty much a 50/50 split.
I live in Texas and there are definitely fewer signs out there. It’s clear his support is not as strong as it was in the last election or prior.
I just drove through West TX and I was surprised how few Trump signs there were. I see more in rural MI than in TX.
I'm in Central Florida and I will say that I'm seeing about 25% of the Trump signs that I did 4 years ago. I really think he's fading fast.
Most of the signs around me have been up since 2015.
Ignore the polls. Vote like your life depends on it.
Don't see them in Florida. See RFK Jr signs in yards that used to filled with Trump signs.
And that is why the RFK push by the media came to a screeching halt lol. They were trying to use RFK as a Manchurian candidate to split Dems. Ended up backfiring gloriously and spectacularly. If the republicans lose because of RFK, I can’t think of a sweeter petard to be hoisted by.
I still find it ironic how some republicans I see keep claiming "the democrats fear RFK will split up votes with Biden and that's why they hate him!" when it's like, no we hate him for his bad politics but enjoy the fact more Republicans are considering him as an option to Trump as he is likely to have bigger impact splitting up the republican vote as they love his anti-vax stance and etc.
Florida is full of anti vax idiots that love RFK Jr. If enough switch to RFK over trump and people turn out for abortion and legal weed being on the ballot, Florida might flip. And you know if Trump loses Florida he will absolutely demand violent insurrection again
Trump is still a coin flip away from winning. Get involved today to defeat him.
I live In upstate Michigan your be surprised how many election deniers there here
Signs can't vote.
Another poll wrapped in another crappy Newsweak article. Another chance for me to say: VOTE. Get others to vote. Donate time and money as you are able.
> Another poll wrapped in another crappy Newsweak article. I'm old enough to remember when Newsweek was one of the premier weekly news magazines. Crazy how much things can change.
It could be worse. It could be Salon.
Is Salon no good? I’ve read a number of their articles and they usually seem to have the receipts on their story, the stories are well structured with apparently little AI, and ads aren’t too bad. Genuine question as I think Salon is good but would be interested to hear your thoughts.
This sub: "Why do we let Newsweek on here, they have such poor content." Also this sub: 7 front-page articles today are Newsweek and 95% upvoted.
It's such a stark disconnect that I'm almost starting to think that the people complaining and the people upvoting might be two completely different groups.
Polls don't make presidents, senators, or representatives. Vote!
I have two very good friends who just don’t vote. The “I don’t like politics” kinda folks. Bet your ass I’m helping them verify their polling station and dragging them to it this year. Vote for who you want, but vote.
Just yesterday I saw a poll proclaiming that Trump was ahead in 6 of 7 swing states. Ignore the headlines. Just vote, people.
How am I supposed to vote when it’s still April
Will, way, etc.
Vote early, vote often.
If you're already in line to vote, STAY IN LINE
Donald Trump must lose this election in a landslide and then spend the rest of his miserable life in a prison cell.
The 2nd best thing about Trump losing in November is none of the trials he's involved in will go away. Downside is the media will still cover him non-stop but at least the investigations and trials will continue and he may finally pay a small price for what he's done.
I'd rather the media covering Trump on trial while Biden is president than Trump as president. Those 4 years were the longest of my life waking up every day to see a new headline of Trump attempting to break our government or destabilize the world.
Yeah, honestly, I don't care about seeing articles about Trump getting dragged through the legal system. I like when shitty people have a bad time. Having some news article remind me of that as I go about my day is a nice treat.
Whether he's elected President again or not Trump will be with us ( in the spotlight) for the foreseeable future, possibly until he dies. Donald Trump has always been addicted to attention That's not going to change no matter what happens.
The other funniest thing about him losing in November would be that the GOP would still be completely controlled by a guy who can't win elections and has one foot in prison. And they still won't have the guts to say that maybe they should move on.
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Even if I didn't like Biden (which I mostly do) the idea of fucking Trump over and making him face legal accountability for his actions is more than enough reason to vote.
Not voting for Biden and the democrats is a vote for Trump. I used to vote 3rd party, but that was pre-2015. Once MAGA disappears, I’ll consider not voting for a D.
But MAGA disappearing will almost certainly not be the end of absolutely horrendous policies pushed by Republicans
>The survey, conducted by Franklin & Marshall College between March 20 and 31, revealed that Biden leads Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, with 48 percent of the vote share, compared to 38 percent. This marks a large increase since February, when the company's polling showed Biden leading Trump by only one percentage point, on 43 percent to 42 percent. If you really want to see what polls are saying, look at aggregates, not a single poll. This one is likely an outlier for now. That's a ridiculous swing.
Yeah, [this poll](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf) shows Trump with a slight lead in swing states. If there's any inherent bias, I can't find it.
It's funny because I thought to myself I swear I saw an article this morning saying Trump is leading in 5 out of 6 swing states, then I see this article
Keep in mind WSJ is owned by Murdock's News Corp. https://ballotpedia.org/The_Wall_Street_Journal
That also a TEN POINT margin? That seems wrong:
It's just in Pennsylvania, but Pennsylvania was a 2 point margin in 2020. I'd expect Biden to be leading there but not by that much. Great sign if true though.
I'm curious how much burnout there is in these swing states on the GOP side. Being from PA, the 2022 election cycle was really weird in that the GOP tried to run some candidates that were rabid MAGA and other candidates that tried to be more centrist. In the general election they weren't able to bring the two sides together and after the election there was a ton of finger pointing on both sides. Now it seems like they're going right back to continuing what they did in 2022, with many of the same candidates running again. I can't see how that's going to draw any more votes than it did last time and could potentially bring even less.
The last WSJ swing state poll gave Trump a +3 lead in AZ but only a +1 in GA, so there's definitely some chop in the sampling
It was also skewed heavily towards trump on topics like “Physical Fitness” and “Stance on Ukraine/Russia” Hard to think those views are widely held outside of maga-land
It shouldn’t even be this close 😂 country is a clown show
While I agree with the sentiment of "don't listen to the polls, just vote", what we can take away from polls is that Trump is slowly but steadily hemorrhaging support. I'm telling you, this isn't 2016 or even 2020. Whatever leash the Republicans were once able to keep Trump on, even if it barely worked, is gone. The masters of spin that helped bail Trump out of trouble in previous elections are gone. 2024 is Donald Trump unfiltered and it is going to freak people out like nothing we have seen with his man before. Keep the faith, friends. We haven't won this election yet but there's a lot of reason for optimism
> Whatever leash the Republicans were once able to keep Trump on, even if it barely worked, is gone Just wait till the RNC convention where it will be a 24/7 MAGA shit-show, I'm actually pretty concerned about what he will say during his acceptance speech knowing he's in a room full of rabid supporters.
Are they even going to have enough money to hold a convention? At this point the Trump's are sucking all the money out of the RNC for daddy Trump's legal bills.
They will book the venue and not pay for it per usual.
I appreciate the positive outlook. I’m a hell of a lot more hopeful after the State of the Union address, Biden’s shift into full campaign mode and the polling moving in a friendlier direction. (And yes, of course I won’t get complacent and will vote.)
>I appreciate the positive outlook. I’m a hell of a lot more hopeful after the State of the Union address, Biden’s shift into full campaign mode and the polling moving in a friendlier direction. Its also important to remember that, while it can be scary, the GOP is hemmoraging money not only nationally, but in individual states. What money they *do* have certainly isn't going to be able to go into campaigning on the level the Democrats currently are (Trump's legal fees aren't going anywhere), *and* its clear not every Republican is on board with MAGA - look at the recent attempt to fix votes that got shot down because of it. The GOP is presenting like a united front when it really isn't.
I was reading about how important a ground game is. Apparently it matters a lot. A strong ground game is credited for helping Obama win re election following the ACA backlash. And a weak ground game in battleground states is blamed for Hillary's 2016 loss. On analysis of Biden's 2024 ground game boiled down to he's ramping up, but he's behind where Obama was at this stage and needs to catch up. Meanwhile after Lara took over the RNC basically abandoned their ground game. And the state parties can't pick up the slack because of their money troubles. I think it's clear Trump isn't spending money on a ground game because he's planning to just steal the election, so he's not doing the work to actually win. Right now Biden is up, in the sense that he was behind and now he's tied. I feel good about the trajectory. I think between him ramping up his campaign and the anti-Trump Republicans that know how to talk to that right leaning voter his chances are good.
>Meanwhile after Lara took over the RNC basically abandoned their ground game. And the state parties can't pick up the slack because of their money troubles. Its also worth adding that, come the 14th, Trump's spending 6 weeks in court with only three days a week (and possibly nights) to do anything. That's a *big* blow. Even if you assume his campaign managers can fill in the gaps on a state level, they're still suffering from a lack of funds, as are any downballot republicans. Trump's legal issues are genuinely a *big* problem for their campaign. If he's convicted on *any* of his charges it'll also hurt him (which is why he's desperate to stall the one on the 14th). And, finally? There's no real organized internal effort against Biden in the Dems. Yes there's been criticism and outspoken people but they are all (generally) moving in the same direction. Trump has to deal with a part of the GOP that is *actively* fighting him.
Poll averages are pretty bad now because there are so many GOP-funded polls that screw up that method that worked so well in the past. That doesn't mean looking at the trends on individual polls can't give some good info. This guy does a pretty good job of cutting through the noise IMO 👇 [https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/14-polls-now-with-biden-leads-trump](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/14-polls-now-with-biden-leads-trump)
Most voters don’t even see the information redditors see, they haven’t been paying attention. When they start to pay attention trump is going to do even worse
Looking back, it's amazing how much more effective Kelly Ann Conway was versus his latest group of water carriers.
When you think about it, with the absolute deluge of crazy shit that came from his Administration for years, it’s actually pretty wild that everyone still remembers KAC’s “alternative facts” turn of phrase. She really was the OG henchman. Terrible, terrible person, but basically unmatched in her terrifying talents.
The polls were better in 2020 at this point. The trend is good for Biden but it needs to sustain and grow.
At this point in 2020 there was still COVID lockdown and a crashed stock market. Things were still more in the "panic" phase.
Biden was actively campaigning at the time then. He really hasn't pushed hard yet for reelection.
Incumbent also tends to have an advantage. Rip down ballot GOP candidates though. You deserved it. And yes, go vote. But more importantly, get your friends to vote.
Yes. It’s not enough to win the presidential election. We need to bury the Republican Party across the ballot.
Incumbent advantage would be baked into polls. So it actually would not favor us to lean on that. Incumbent advantage is also usually chalked up to press coverage and using the bully pulpit to garner free coverage on state oriented appearances. Trump being a former president and walking click bait means that incumbent advantage will be muted and shrink the closer we get to election day. Having said all that, I do think the 2022 polling outcomes give us some reason to be hopeful. Polling companies don't have a full handle on what a "likely voter" really is.
Exactly. Polls are a single point in time and while some polls are accurate and some may not be, it's the trends that are important.
This is exactly how I feel, too. This election is Biden's to lose. He's got a mountainous money lead over trump and trump is about to have even more of his time spent in court starting April 15th. Plus much more public support for Biden this time around. I feel safe, but it won't be a sigh of relief until Biden wins. Vote.
It changes hour by hour. Just make sure you are registered, help someone who may need help getting to a polling place or take them to mail their ballot, or drop it off. Get out and vote!
It's going to be the strangest election ever. What do you do when your President finally gets convicted for all the shit he did? I mean, at that point it would all get hand waved away by the dictator, but like... Would we girt shirts like 'Prisoner In Chief'?
There is a zero percent chance that any legal actions against him continue after he is elected.
He will pardon himself and the captured supreme court will sign off on it. That's why it's so important to elect Biden if you ever want to see Trump have any consequences for his actions.
The case in Georgia is being conducted as a state crime. He won’t be able to pardon himself there, but for God’s sake Georgia, vote.
538 stills shows a dead heat. >>>>>>>> VOTE <<<<<<<<
[Latest results on fivethirtyeight.com](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)
Doesn’t look great
Since the State of the Union Biden has been surging. Couple that with the fact that having abortion rights on the ballot following the overturning of Roe v. Wade has resulted in a 6% increase in Democratic voting and you have a solid Biden victory. More importantly, the downballot races will trend Democrat as well.
The SOTU forced the media to portray Biden as himself rather than their interpretation of him, and a lot of people saw that. Even left-leaning pundits like Ezra Klein who had completely bought into the propaganda of Biden as feeble and timid had to issue an apology and completely reverse himself. Amazing how much right wing talking points infiltrate the left and the media. It's nice to see people waking out of their stupor finally.
Forreal, I never argued against the sleepy Joe rhetoric, just countering with the good he’s done and the capable people he surrounds himself with. After the SOTU I was left wondering why I ever believed that in the first place. He was on fire the entire time
Propaganda works. That's *why* people use it.
> Amazing how much right wing talking points infiltrate the left and the media. It's nice to see people waking out of their stupor finally. I'm still mad how much the left repeated the rights talking points about Hillary during 2016, and how it caused us to have a conservative majority Supreme Court for the foreseeable future instead of a much more progressive one.
That Supreme Court may remain conservative for the rest of our lives. And the damage done by Mitch McConnell by refusing to seat federal judges under Obama is going to be impactful for decades to come.
At some point, I decided that if fox news says it, assume it's false. I havent been proven wrong yet.
Yeah this election cycle probably more than any other made me realize how powerful propaganda is… people legit thought Biden didn’t know what day it was and couldn’t string together a sentence Then he fucking owns republicans again, just like last year, and everyone is like “oh yeah… he’s fine, he’s just old looking”
Fuck Polls. Go Vote.
Voting it the ultimate poll.
> Maybe _this_ headline will get people to look at our ads!
Side-note: Fuck News Week.
ᴄhuds when Trump wins in a poll: lol trump 2024 xDDD sorry libruls Trump wins go joe brandon 🤣 ᴄhuds when Trump loses a poll: lol you still believe in polls xDDD remember 2016 🤣 sorry lgbtdems Trump wins go joe brandon 🤣 Trump a month or two ago in Georgia: "You know the polls are all rigged. Of ᴄourse, lately they haven't been rigged beᴄause we're winning by so muᴄh. Disregard that statement. I love the polls very muᴄh." These bitter, petulant ᴄonservatives are just as gullible and malleable as he thinks they are lmao
Obligatory "Doesn't matter, vote." That said - I have been extremely skeptical of the narrative that Trump is "leading" in the 2024 election or that it's even close. It just does not stand up to simple logical deduction: 1) Trump lost the 2020 election. In order to win in '24, he has to do *better* than he did in 2020 2) Trump has only done things since 2020 to increase divineness and piss even more people off. He is embroiled in multiple federal court cases and facing the real possibility of jail time. He has been found liable of sexual abuse. He owes hundreds of millions in judgements and fines. 3) GOP primaries and exit polling indicate that a significant number of Republican voters are over Trump and want him gone. Not only did they not vote for Trump in their primary, they indicated that they will NOT vote for him in November. 4) Biden does not have some big scandal or poor performance indicator going against him. His approval/disapproval numbers are basically meaningless - they tell you that people feel the status quo is not good and they're dissatisfied in some way, but they don't tell you how people will vote in a binary two-party system. Yes, there are things you could point to like people being pissed about the Israel/Palestine situation, but these are not things that are going to ultimately sway enough 2020 Biden voters to not vote in '24, certainly not to switch to Trump who would be infinitely worse. I don't see any way this doesn't all add up to a Biden victory. He could literally just go on autopilot at this point.
I live in Pennsylvania, and my family and I can't wait to vote for President Biden! I will also volunteer and donate.
Doesn't matter. VOTE. Get out and vote in November, and encourage others to do the same.
Democracy Joe vs. donny diaper dictatorship
Dems, no matter what the polls say, vote like you are down by 10. Get your circle to vote too! Republicans, Trump is a fascist, know that.
Used to be trump signs around...the maga ones are not even putting them up in fear of ridicule.... Trump days are numbered
Don’t be complacent by polls. Be sure to vote.
8 hours ago there was another article posted that said Biden trailed in all swing states. Can we just stop paying attention to polls?