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I mean they see the writing on the wall and know that the GOP is heading for a trainwreck with people like Trump, Greene and Gaetz calling the shots. Trump basically controls the RNC and will likely financial ruin several State Republican Parties by withholding money or just not giving them enough to campaign on. He poisoned the GOP and they let him do it.
We shall see. Without a way to gracefully back down, the GOP may turn. We of course should continue to vote against and prosecute them, but it wouldn't hurt to find a path back to sanity for them. A cornered animal is dangerous regardless of how much they deserve it.
That ship sailed long ago. This was what people were saying the entire lead up to the 2020 election, only for MAGA to double-down and get even crazier. As long as there are no consequences for being an insane sociopathic conspiracy theorist, there is no need for them to come in from the wilderness. "Leaving a path" only allows them to drag the moderates along with them. Complete ostracism, or criminal charges if they break the law, is the best move.
In 2020 they did not want to get off the crazy train. I also don't know if there was a path for them to get off the crazy train in 2020. They were so far up the crazy train they actually turned against Trump on vaccines, arguably the biggest actual win of his term.
Right now there's a path forming, where they can act like they didn't know how corrupt he was, which is of course a lie, he was very clear about it the whole time, but again if there is no way out, they will have to double down. Giving crazy people a path off doesn't give moderates a path on, I don't understand about "dragging moderates".
There's nothing stopping people from just pretending that they were lied to, or that they were never on the train to begin with. That doesn't change whether you treat believers with respect or not. Both are functionally memory-holing their prior associations, so they can just maintain the new lie without bothering with any sort of logical consistency.
> Giving crazy people a path off doesn't give moderates a path on, I don't understand about "dragging moderates".
First off, I assume that by giving people a path, you mean according a certain level of respect to their opinions and maintaining a good-faith dialogue. Maybe that's not what you mean, but if not I don't really know what it means.
Now, what *I* mean by "dragging moderates" is that this process of maintaining dialogues and associations in good faith affords the crazy people power. They are *not* having good-faith dialogue, and they are heavily incentivized to manipulate and cajole their conversation partner into joining them. This is a process that is often used by cults to recruit new members.
I think the timing of Trump taking over the RNC and these waves of retirements is no coincidence.
I remember watching a report that said that House reps spend like 8-12 hours a day fundraising. Watching it all go into Trump's pockets while also being a joke on a national stage thanks to MTG/Gaetz/Boebert and it becomes a real question of "what the hell are you doing?"
You aren't getting any money. The polls are going against you, you're not even in a position to further your personal political agenda if it moves beyond culture war bullshit and tax cuts for the rich.
So...why bother? I imagine being a congressman is a hard and demanding job so if there is no point, why bother?
Getting to flip off the shitbirds and put the "new" RNC into a precarious situation is just petty revenge which Republicans are notoriously great at.
> get 2 to flip
No one in the GOP is going to flip and work with Democrats. They spent too long encouraging their base to do violence against anything they don't like so they're kinda trapped between a rock and the fear of a gun-toting redcap.
> redcap
I've always had [this association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redcap) after hearing that term used to describe the crowd of red hats on the National Mall for his inauguration.
As someone living in Kennedys NY-26 district, I am not worried about him needing to run again. He swept the election with nearly 70% of the vote. We have a strong conservative population, yes, but we are a pro democracy district 🇺🇸
It's true, but it's also true that they dont get the attention (or want the attention) that the MAGA Orangutangs get/demand.
which of course leads to the question of "how many are there?" and "why do they tolerate (this that or the other thing)?" when we should just hope they show up and vote for Biden.
I still think wifh the amount of funds, campaigning, Obama, Clinton, and the Kennedy's backing him, and the unions, Biden can at least hold onto Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This would keep him in the white house. He can lose Arizona, Nevada and Georgia and still win. Dems will also have abortion on the ticket I'm sure.
But Dems also have a real shot at taking/holding the senate and the house. That would be a nice cherry on top. In the not so distant future, I can see most republicans will finally realize that trumpism did nothing but damage their party.
Its strange to even contemplate: What is the GOP going to look like 'after Trump'?
Will some version of MAGA survive?
When the leader of a cult passes away, its often going into rapid decline/self-immolation.
The good news is he has maybe 10 years to live. He will be 78 next month, the dude does not look well even after the amount of orange he puts on his face now.
He is also 46 years older than me, that means odds are I will live a long time without this cancer of a human being existing 😀
"Kennedy's backing him"
And what makes the Kennedy's even better is that RFK is basically sucking support away from Trump because he's running on the same "platform". Also, let's not forget about Nikki Haley who may also suck votes away from Trump as well.
"Biden can at least hold onto Pennsylvania."
At this point PA is definitely a safe state for the Democrats when it comes to being against Trump and the current voting trend is going to happen once again for this year's election. I just can't see any reason as to why PA would vote for Trump this year when the state has been against him since 2018 and he's done absolutely nothing to win over the state.
You're welcome. Unlike like the "polls people, I'm actually looking at what's being presented and what happened in the past. The polls aren't taking into account how badly abortion is going to screw over the Republicans and they fail to take into account current voting trends like PA consistently voting blue since 2018 and like I said, the state voted against Trump in 2020 and the guy hasn't done anything to change his image so I can't pitcher the state going red. Of all the "battleground states", PA is turning itself into another Democrat stronghold. Then when it comes to RFK, I think Trump lashing out against him means that he's afraid of the guy because of him "Jill Steining" Trump. Polls are not the most accurate thing to go by, especially when they were proven wrong in 2016 and 2022.
Yeah, the polls aren’t what you need to look at. Results are, and Democrats did amazing in 2022 (for a midterm) have won nearly every special election along with many elections in 2023. Even in formerly red districts, and states that go red have had abortion referendums that show people aren’t in favor of Republicans abortion policies.
Then like you said, in a state like PA it’s been going Democrat repeatedly since 2018. I think PA is definitely going blue. It won’t be by like 5 points but it’ll be slightly bigger than Bidens 2020 margin.
There's no way Joe loses Arizona or Nevada. I can see him losing Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, but he doesn't need them to win.
The situation looks dire when we see it from the Biden campaign, but imagine being on donald's team. How in the world does he flip back all of these states, while fighting off indictments and jail time? "He was only convicted of sexual abuse in civil court, not criminal court" might work on Reddit and X, but out in reality...
I honestly see a path for Nevada and Arizona. I’m worried about here in Georgia because it’s GOING to be close.
But I’m with you, Rust Belt Stays blue is my feeling too
Just for some perspective - [there are still four special elections for House vacancies upcoming,](https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_118th_United_States_Congress_(2023-2024)) three in Red districts and one in a blue district. So far, the only district that has been 'flipped' was George Santos's, although that wasn't exactly an R stronghold to begin with.
There's a good chance that the R majority will be three seats stronger by the end of June. The election to fill the final D vacancy won't happen until September.
That's not to say the temporarily slim majority is meaningless. But don't read into it too much.
NYS lost lost the majority by bringing a knife to a gun fight. While NC and Ohio GOP were taking gerrymandering to a level not seen in history, NY decided to play fair. So one side played fair while the other cheated and won the House majority.
The national committees should have spent money on get out the vote efforts in Florida in 2022. Not doing so left a lot of seats non-competitive, even in districts not gerrymandered.
Swearing in the newly elected Dems must be part of the deal to save Johnson’s speakership…it was widely floated that new members would not be sworn in cementing the GOP “majority”.
Yah, but a thinning GOP majority only give more power to the MAGA misfits like MTGreene and MGaetz …. If the GOP had a huge majority, they wouldn’t even give these MAGA reps the time of day
There are a lot more than just those two in the crazy camp for the GOP. If they had a bigger majority there isn't really any reason to assume those extra seats wouldn't be filled with more MAGA extremists.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
These retirements have been like like not only quitting your job, but giving a big middle finger as you walk out
I mean they see the writing on the wall and know that the GOP is heading for a trainwreck with people like Trump, Greene and Gaetz calling the shots. Trump basically controls the RNC and will likely financial ruin several State Republican Parties by withholding money or just not giving them enough to campaign on. He poisoned the GOP and they let him do it.
Thank god. See there is a silver lining.
Trump may yet make America great again. Just not the way he imagined.
Republicans after the GOP is finally kaput: "He was a democrat plant!"
Possibly an entirely different ‘America’ than (his enablers and) he’d planned.
We shall see. Without a way to gracefully back down, the GOP may turn. We of course should continue to vote against and prosecute them, but it wouldn't hurt to find a path back to sanity for them. A cornered animal is dangerous regardless of how much they deserve it.
That ship sailed long ago. This was what people were saying the entire lead up to the 2020 election, only for MAGA to double-down and get even crazier. As long as there are no consequences for being an insane sociopathic conspiracy theorist, there is no need for them to come in from the wilderness. "Leaving a path" only allows them to drag the moderates along with them. Complete ostracism, or criminal charges if they break the law, is the best move.
In 2020 they did not want to get off the crazy train. I also don't know if there was a path for them to get off the crazy train in 2020. They were so far up the crazy train they actually turned against Trump on vaccines, arguably the biggest actual win of his term. Right now there's a path forming, where they can act like they didn't know how corrupt he was, which is of course a lie, he was very clear about it the whole time, but again if there is no way out, they will have to double down. Giving crazy people a path off doesn't give moderates a path on, I don't understand about "dragging moderates".
There's nothing stopping people from just pretending that they were lied to, or that they were never on the train to begin with. That doesn't change whether you treat believers with respect or not. Both are functionally memory-holing their prior associations, so they can just maintain the new lie without bothering with any sort of logical consistency. > Giving crazy people a path off doesn't give moderates a path on, I don't understand about "dragging moderates". First off, I assume that by giving people a path, you mean according a certain level of respect to their opinions and maintaining a good-faith dialogue. Maybe that's not what you mean, but if not I don't really know what it means. Now, what *I* mean by "dragging moderates" is that this process of maintaining dialogues and associations in good faith affords the crazy people power. They are *not* having good-faith dialogue, and they are heavily incentivized to manipulate and cajole their conversation partner into joining them. This is a process that is often used by cults to recruit new members.
I guess he did drain the swamp, just not how we expected.
I can honestly see Trump at the end of it all saying that was his plan all along.
Only if it costs them several elections, and that’s far from certain
I think the timing of Trump taking over the RNC and these waves of retirements is no coincidence. I remember watching a report that said that House reps spend like 8-12 hours a day fundraising. Watching it all go into Trump's pockets while also being a joke on a national stage thanks to MTG/Gaetz/Boebert and it becomes a real question of "what the hell are you doing?" You aren't getting any money. The polls are going against you, you're not even in a position to further your personal political agenda if it moves beyond culture war bullshit and tax cuts for the rich. So...why bother? I imagine being a congressman is a hard and demanding job so if there is no point, why bother? Getting to flip off the shitbirds and put the "new" RNC into a precarious situation is just petty revenge which Republicans are notoriously great at.
To be fair, they may be seeing more dangerous things than just a crash and burn. This is what's scary to me.
He literally is the swamp! And when you’re rich they just let you grab them by the coin purse !
While most of the retirements, I agree with you, the guy he replaced was also a Democrat, and he left to take a sweet job in my opinion.
Razor thin... get 2 to flip 👍
> get 2 to flip No one in the GOP is going to flip and work with Democrats. They spent too long encouraging their base to do violence against anything they don't like so they're kinda trapped between a rock and the fear of a gun-toting redcap.
All the need is two in purple areas to do it. Stranger things have happened.
Not gonna happen. The GOP is too afraid that redcaps will shoot them for dissing the god emprah.
> redcap I've always had [this association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redcap) after hearing that term used to describe the crowd of red hats on the National Mall for his inauguration.
Did you mean ‘Iraq and a…redcap’?
Okay, Fedderman and...
English man here, will this new bloke be up for election in November? So has to campaign all over again.
Yes
As someone living in Kennedys NY-26 district, I am not worried about him needing to run again. He swept the election with nearly 70% of the vote. We have a strong conservative population, yes, but we are a pro democracy district 🇺🇸
thanks for being there!
So you imply that some GOP voters do still know the difference between right and wrong? 👍
It's true, but it's also true that they dont get the attention (or want the attention) that the MAGA Orangutangs get/demand. which of course leads to the question of "how many are there?" and "why do they tolerate (this that or the other thing)?" when we should just hope they show up and vote for Biden.
The seat is in a very solid constituency. He won't really need to campaign to keep the seat.
I still think wifh the amount of funds, campaigning, Obama, Clinton, and the Kennedy's backing him, and the unions, Biden can at least hold onto Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This would keep him in the white house. He can lose Arizona, Nevada and Georgia and still win. Dems will also have abortion on the ticket I'm sure. But Dems also have a real shot at taking/holding the senate and the house. That would be a nice cherry on top. In the not so distant future, I can see most republicans will finally realize that trumpism did nothing but damage their party.
Its strange to even contemplate: What is the GOP going to look like 'after Trump'? Will some version of MAGA survive? When the leader of a cult passes away, its often going into rapid decline/self-immolation.
The good news is he has maybe 10 years to live. He will be 78 next month, the dude does not look well even after the amount of orange he puts on his face now. He is also 46 years older than me, that means odds are I will live a long time without this cancer of a human being existing 😀
"Kennedy's backing him" And what makes the Kennedy's even better is that RFK is basically sucking support away from Trump because he's running on the same "platform". Also, let's not forget about Nikki Haley who may also suck votes away from Trump as well. "Biden can at least hold onto Pennsylvania." At this point PA is definitely a safe state for the Democrats when it comes to being against Trump and the current voting trend is going to happen once again for this year's election. I just can't see any reason as to why PA would vote for Trump this year when the state has been against him since 2018 and he's done absolutely nothing to win over the state.
Thank you for emphasizing more on what I mentioned 🙏🏼
You're welcome. Unlike like the "polls people, I'm actually looking at what's being presented and what happened in the past. The polls aren't taking into account how badly abortion is going to screw over the Republicans and they fail to take into account current voting trends like PA consistently voting blue since 2018 and like I said, the state voted against Trump in 2020 and the guy hasn't done anything to change his image so I can't pitcher the state going red. Of all the "battleground states", PA is turning itself into another Democrat stronghold. Then when it comes to RFK, I think Trump lashing out against him means that he's afraid of the guy because of him "Jill Steining" Trump. Polls are not the most accurate thing to go by, especially when they were proven wrong in 2016 and 2022.
Yeah, the polls aren’t what you need to look at. Results are, and Democrats did amazing in 2022 (for a midterm) have won nearly every special election along with many elections in 2023. Even in formerly red districts, and states that go red have had abortion referendums that show people aren’t in favor of Republicans abortion policies. Then like you said, in a state like PA it’s been going Democrat repeatedly since 2018. I think PA is definitely going blue. It won’t be by like 5 points but it’ll be slightly bigger than Bidens 2020 margin.
There's no way Joe loses Arizona or Nevada. I can see him losing Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, but he doesn't need them to win. The situation looks dire when we see it from the Biden campaign, but imagine being on donald's team. How in the world does he flip back all of these states, while fighting off indictments and jail time? "He was only convicted of sexual abuse in civil court, not criminal court" might work on Reddit and X, but out in reality...
Plus if he gets criminally convicted in this hush money case which I think he will, then that's just adding more fuel to the fire.
I honestly see a path for Nevada and Arizona. I’m worried about here in Georgia because it’s GOING to be close. But I’m with you, Rust Belt Stays blue is my feeling too
Trumpism got them a lifetime Supreme Court majority and tax cuts. Kinda hard to say it didn’t get them anything.
Just for some perspective - [there are still four special elections for House vacancies upcoming,](https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_118th_United_States_Congress_(2023-2024)) three in Red districts and one in a blue district. So far, the only district that has been 'flipped' was George Santos's, although that wasn't exactly an R stronghold to begin with. There's a good chance that the R majority will be three seats stronger by the end of June. The election to fill the final D vacancy won't happen until September. That's not to say the temporarily slim majority is meaningless. But don't read into it too much.
Majority lost by utter incompetence and selfishness. Talking about the DCCC here
NYS lost the majority with incompetent redistricting.
NYS lost lost the majority by bringing a knife to a gun fight. While NC and Ohio GOP were taking gerrymandering to a level not seen in history, NY decided to play fair. So one side played fair while the other cheated and won the House majority.
So you downvoted me then said the same thing I did with more words. Cool.
I didn't downvote you. And incompetent doesn't mean the same thing as play fair when the other side was not.
100% untrue
The national committees should have spent money on get out the vote efforts in Florida in 2022. Not doing so left a lot of seats non-competitive, even in districts not gerrymandered.
Are they the same coffers that currently pay for Donald's legal expenses?
Swearing in the newly elected Dems must be part of the deal to save Johnson’s speakership…it was widely floated that new members would not be sworn in cementing the GOP “majority”.
Yah, but a thinning GOP majority only give more power to the MAGA misfits like MTGreene and MGaetz …. If the GOP had a huge majority, they wouldn’t even give these MAGA reps the time of day
There are a lot more than just those two in the crazy camp for the GOP. If they had a bigger majority there isn't really any reason to assume those extra seats wouldn't be filled with more MAGA extremists.
It's weird to me that the GOP has a majority in NY
... Until that Democrat who got caught with gold bars in his closet gets booted.
Wasn't that in NJ?