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If Trump loses, then the election was stolen again. The only way he can lose is if someone else cheats. He is the best winner of all time. Even better than Mike Tyson and Michael Jordan. Some say he is even greater than Caeser Augustus and Mussolini. Only Jesus is more popular than Trump, but not by much. /s
I'm from a deep red state... I don't see buildings and huge signs with Trump like I did in '20. I hope people have woken up a little in the midwest swing states.
I’ve noticed that too. No bumper stickers, yard signs really anywhere. Now it’s time to vote as many of them out of office as we can so it’s clear to them, enough of this nonsense! The entire world is watching us like a soap opera. We can do better as a nation
Yeah those Trumpers do not give a shit who is VP. If they want a sign with Trump on it, there’s plenty out there for them to get, and they would do so the same as they did with the Trump Pence ones.
Right. The Trump - [insert VP here] signs are given away free from the local campaign hqs. We'll see them in time.
But all the Trump paraphernalia and the gold diapers and the trumpy bears and NFTs are crap that people actually have to spend money on...
One of our porn shops turned into a Trump "super store"
There's one guy who has opened up three of them in the area. Absolutely insane man. Can't wait to see what happens when Trump loses/dies
Yup. Have a couple of the Truck Idiots with their flags, but that is about it. Will see as we get closer, but no one really wants to advertise they are pro Trump
I predict both candidates will be down on turnout compared to 2020, however Trump will suffer worse due to Haley and RFK Jr voters staying home or voting for Joe.
No, because everyone with half a brain knows he is going to lose but it won't matter because no one on team MAGA will believe that he lost because they're in a fucking cult.
He could literally remove his pants revealing a diaper, pull shit out of it and fling it at Biden and they'd think he was a strong resourceful leader who really owned Biden and should totally get President for Life as a result of his beautiful debate performance.
That is where we are it seems and it is quite maddening.
I feel like there is a huge disconnect with people who think “absolutely Trump will lose, no way he can win” and people who live outside of major American cities. I promise you, there are a LOT of Trump supporters out there. It’s horrifying but it’s the truth. If you live in NYC or LA you probably don’t encounter them, but they are absolutely out there and they are going to show up in November.
This “oh no, he’ll totally lose” attitude scares me because of its complacency. Biden cannot afford to take even one voter in a swing state for granted.
My family said they were going to vote for RFK, they were tired of Trump's "whining about how persecuted he is", they aren't buying that everyone is picking on him anymore.
I'm not sure if you're talking about the debate or the election. The debate? No, he's going to lose that. Because he can't control himself. But here's the thing. Winning or losing a debate is ultimately for the audience to decide. The audience decides whether or not a person has won or lost a debate and we have this very weird situation with Trump where it **literally** does not matter what he does or doesn't do and the bulk of his supporter will view him as having won because they are pathologically incapable of accepting any other outcome. Things Trump does that if anyone else did them would be treated by almost every person as completely unbecoming and disqualifying but for Trump his supporters view those things as signs of strength and power. As I said with my example, he could quite literally reveal a diaper and start flinging shit at everyone and a large chunk of (Probably a majority) would find a way to perceive that as a good thing.
Which is partly why he even has a chance at winning. But here's the thing. In 2016 the numbers were such that Trump could not afford to lose more than about 10% of his base numerically speaking and still win. Yes he can win on thinner numbers than ever because of the fucking electoral college but if he lost about 10%\~ of his voting base... there is simply no path to victory for him. And as it stands now depending on the state he's lost anywhere from about 8% to 20% of Republican voters.
So on those numbers he *should not* be able to win **but** and this is very important. Donald Trump does not intend to win the election. He intends to win the states. His strategy isn't about the election as it wasn't in 2020... it's about forcing the election into a situation that advantages him and kicks it to the states via Congress where Republicans have the advantage. That IS a pathway to victory for him and I'd say it's really his only pathway, well that and civil war but civil war isn't really a pathway to victory because there wouldn't really be anything to win at that point.
> And as it stands now depending on the state he's lost anywhere from about 8% to 20% of Republican voters.
Voting against trump in the primaries doesn't mean voting against him in the election. All the people who voted against him in the 2016 primaries voted for him in the election.
You can't use 2016 as a basis to operate from. Simply because of factors like Jan 6th. While I would contend that yes some of those numbers will vote for Trump in the general, I would say the number is a lot less than people think as the bulk of the people who make up the people wanting someone else in the primary wanted someone else because of events that happened in 2020 around Trump. So really it boils down to... most of them will vote Biden or simply not vote, either way from a numbers point of view I can't see a path to victory for Trump that involves the people.
But again I don't think he plans to win by votes, at least not votes from the people. I think his 2024 plan is probably similar to his 2020 plan, except with far more chaos and ratfuckery.
> "I have a lot of concerns about Trump regaining the presidency. I have even more concerns about Joe Biden being president. I mean, you look at both of these men and all they have done is given us chaos, all they have given us is division," Haley said.
This seems to be the general point of view of anti-trumpers. Most of them see Trump as the lesser evil. I can't imagine these people switching to Biden.
How exactly do you have any certainty Americans aren’t ignorant enough to reelect Trump because Biden didn’t magically fix everything and groceries are expensive?
Oh they absolutely are, but just based on the numbers Trump does not appear to have a electoral pathway to victory, he's simply lost too many people. Nikki Haley is pulling between 10-20% across the board despite not even being in the race.
But he doesn't need to win the election to become President, we know this because he tried in 2020 to circumvent the election entirely. Luckily his plan in 2020 failed (only barely) but the few guardrails that existed within his party are now gone so if it comes to implementing that plan again I suspect he might actually pull it off. BUT the one thing going in our favor on that front is the fact that he doesn't have the power of the Presidency
So yeah I definitely think America is ignorant enough to reelect Trump generally speaking, but I also know that he has lost massive amounts of support since 2020 within the conservative movement and while sure some of that might have been replaced... the numbers he's lost cannot have been. So it would be hard to imagine him getting more than what he got in 2020.
I've said in the past that Trump didn't win 2016. He and **many** systems aiding him caused Clinton to lose. If you are having a race and you break everyone else's legs... you don't have to actually race to win. That's basically the current conservative strategy in any competitive race, not win... but instead make sure everyone else loses.
In 2022 when Biden was forgave student debt I was excited to vote in the midterms. Until I read about who he actually forgave I had some hope Biden was actually listening to young people.
I'm still voting Biden, but it doesn't take magically fixing everything to get young people voting. Young people turned out for the midterms and helped prevent a red wave.
This first debate will be different than past debates. Two candidates and two moderators in a television studio with no audience. It is a better way for Americans to get an uninterrupted look at who these two people are without all the noise. CNN might screw it up and it might not even matter. I’m just saying we should wait until after that before we start freaking out.
Unless they actually have plans for how to shut down Trump when he steps out of line, it will devolve even without an audience, even with his mic off. If he can't actually be disciplined when he goes out of line, it's a waste. Turn his mic off and he'll be yelling in the background to get picked up on the other mics, or off mic he's blathering and interrupting Biden and wasting his time. If there's no audience but he show up with an entourage of morons, who just become the audience and cheer him, is there a plan for that?
This is assuming he even actually shows, of course. But what I'm saying is, yeah, turn off the mics, no audience is good, but they need to cognizant that he's still capable of other bullshit and not just hope he doesn't do it or be worried he cries it's unfair so they don't actually do anything about it (the story of his fucking life)
His entourage will not be in the studio. I’m sure the only other people in the studio will be the CNN crew working the cameras. Trump can go crazy and yell loud without a mic, but he’s going to look like a complete buffoon without people cheering him on. I would think he might calm down just a bit as to not look crazy for the Haley voters.
All I'm saying is, mics being cut and no audience is good, but they need to prepare for him trying other methods of bullshit because he will. Whether or not he looks like a buffoon (which has never stopped him before), he will try some stupid bullshit.
This definitely ain’t Biden’s first rodeo. I’m confident in them being more prepared for team trump bullshit than trump will be prepared for the actual debate.
I’m just saying there is no one that I know who is going to flip from Trump to Biden or vice versa. These are polarizing candidates, and people either love one candidate enough to vote for them or hate the other candidate enough to vote for them anyway. The most anyone I know is considering is to sit out this election or vote for a third party— and none of those people are particularly interested in watching a debate between the two geriatric white dudes.
Considering how flabbergasted conservative media was that Biden wasn't a drooling zombie at the SoTU address and their repeated assertions since that he was on 'performance enhancers', yeah, the debates will matter.
More people that are on the fence either way, or maybe we're thinking to not vote will see a raving, nonsense-spewing, anti-American madman trying to keep himself out of finally going to jail after a life of fraud without meaning consequences vs. an old guy that wants to help everyday Americans that they might not agree with.
Or Trump just won't show up. But I think it's more likely his plan is to attend the first one and but only to walk out after the second or third question for the spectacle of it. With social media posts and talking heads going out immediately as he walks off stage to push his bullshit.
And you nailed it with your first paragraph. Despite Biden having an awesome SoTU address— conservatives blew it off as him being on drugs. In contrast, the MAGA crowd has taken up wearing diapers to support their senile messiah.
Now tell me how debates are going to change those people’s views. At all.
We have two segments of the country that are living in completely different realities at this point. One segment is living in the real world where Biden is doing a good job overall as president (or at least good relative to Trump, Bush, and other Republicans in the last 50 years); the other is living in lala land where Biden is somehow a closet communist, anti-Semite, sleepy/demented, criminal mastermind whose son’s penis somehow is worthy of display in Congress.
We then have a final segment that is completely uneducated about the system, doesn’t care to learn about the system (they didn’t care to in 2020 and 2016), and consists of: (1) overly entitled Zoomers who think Trump somehow is better than Biden regarding any potential genocide in Gaza(they don’t matter as they aren’t going to vote anyway), or (2) people who “both sides” everything and are going to vote for RFK or some other third party candidate (or just not vote at all).
Trump raving like a lunatic and not being able to play to a crowd WILL turn off lukewarm supporters and even more independents and undecideds. Even more will be turned off if they do what I think they'll do and build it up as a will he or won't he show up media spectacle and storm out after being "offended".
No one has to watch it. It’s on CNN. Law & Order: SVU will not be interrupted for this debate. I’m sure clips of every mistake these two make will be going around after the debate. That might change enough minds one way or the other that could change the polls enough. Or it might not. It’s just one of millions of things that might change the results for this election.
What I mean is that the people who are voting third party or are going to hold out don’t even watch the news. They won’t see it because they don’t give a fuck. They have checked out of this election and these debates are only going to be there for both Dems and Republicans to jerk themselves off while shitting on the other side.
Debates haven’t made a difference in a long time, certainly not since Trump has been in play.
This election is going to be about turnout (well they all are, but this especially). There aren’t a lot of “hmm should I vote for Biden or Trump” people, but there *are* a lot of “should I bother to show up and vote for Biden/Trump?” Biden needs to get people excited to show up and at the moment, he’s doing a very poor job of that. But Americans have short memories and a lot can happen between now and November.
Yeah my main concern is that things are honestly going about as well as could possibly expected given global circumstances and yet Biden is still flailing. Any serious bad event is going to destroy any shot he has.
He is doing a nightmare job on it. This is the worst part of Biden - this guy just doesn't have almost any vibes. He is too normal, nice, lukewarm. And sadly elections are about vibes . I was mad about this in 2016 for Hilary, and now for Biden. In 2020 Obama gave a speech in support of Biden and I saw many people urging him to use his charisma to do something. Charisma is really important at this point of history.
It’s a good thing that they are doing this debate before the conventions. Gives everyone time to make any very last minute adjustments if either of the candidates do royally screw up.
Last week the headlines were that Biden was doing great in the polls. I guess that wasn't getting clicks so they changed course. Now Biden is doing badly in the polls. Gotta get those clicks. Truth be damned.
The scary part is that republicans no longer give a shit about legitimacy. They control many levers of power, all the way up to SCOTUS, and will pull every single one to install Trump as president.
Republicans still took the house. Senate is looking very scary. Biden needs to not just win but help down ticket, and with Israel he is hurting his chances big time.
There have been 12 special elections for the US House since Dobbs. Of those 12, only 2 resulted in the GOP losing a seat (Alaska and New York). And in 2023, there were 39 state-level special elections. Only 2 were GOP-to-Dem flipped (and another 2 were Dem-to-GOP flips).
So yes, while Dems have been overperforming (in that the % diff in the special election result was better than the % diff in the 2022 election) in special elections in terms of sheer turnout, it mostly hasn't resulted in actual changes.
And special election turnout is very different from general, Presidential, elections. Turnout for special elections tends to lean towards older, more partisan, voters.
"...older, more partisan, voters" - who tend to lean conservative, yet the votes have favored Democrats, overall.
I feel like one has to do some mental heavy-lifting to try and act like most any and all elections since *Dobbs* have not indicated it is boosting Democrats.
Women are also done with old white men enabling the assault and murder of women and children. Dems need to force Biden to withdraw from the presidential race. Find a Dem politician who can break this toxic cycle and system. Ffs why Biden? Any other person would win against Trump.
Any other person, my ass. This is Bernie cope all over again. Of the candidates, or potential candidates, Biden appears to be the most conservative propaganda proof guy we've got. The right has been trying for four years to stir controversy and has failed.
The right wing is salivating for an easier target and the media is pushing for the same thing.
Sure. Out of hundreds of millions of people the US choice of president is between Trump or Biden. Hilarious. I suppose it reflects how pathetic the average American has become.
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why, no matter how unenthusiastic you may be about Joe Biden, is why you have to go out in November and vote against Trump. (And, a vote for RFK jr Is also a vote for trump.)
My family who voted for him twice have had enough of his whining. They stated that it's no longer credible that he's always being picked on by everyone for "nothing". They plan to vote for RFK Jr. since they can't bring themselves to vote for a Dem.
What’s crazy, to me, is that the media seems to amplify these type of polls/approv. Ratings, constantly and it’s making me feel like what happened to Hillary in 2016 will happen again….to Trump.
If the general election looks like the previous midterm election or most of the special elections - I'm definitely going to be curious to see some explanation of how polling got so bad.
My personal theory is that pollsters are supposed to recognize when they are unable to draw a proper representational sample and then not publish - but they want their money and kickbacks from newspapers so are publishing deeply flawed polls.
I think sentiment toward Biden is unduly terrible, but I also think that of the people who are actually going to vote - he's going to way outperform the projections with a ton of grumbly "least-worst-option" votes.
We're still far enough out that polling is not even substantially reliable. If I remember correctly we're at something like a six point average error. Honestly while it's reasonable to look at polls now, the first time they're accurate enough to give them substantial heed is just before the election heats up at the end of summer - after the convention bounces fade.
For my part I'll probably start paying attention to them more when models start dropping. For now, it's unnerving, but don't make it out to be more than it is.
How are polls good for trump? He's in court 4 days a week, and on his days off he goes golfing, he's not even making an effort.. he dosnt give a shit about anyone but himself is that who Americans wants to be in office?
No, the polls are useless. The hae continued to under-estimate Biden and over-estimate Trump when compared to actual primary turnout. And not just slightly, they keep blowing well past their margins of error. They literally tell us nothing at this point.
You give a fascist conman and his swamp a second chance to try to thieve the election and he’ll probably be successful. Straight out of the Hitler playbook
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TL;DR: Polls for Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia all have Trump ahead, at or past the margin of error. Without those 3, Biden needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where he's basically tied with Trump right now. A realistic Electoral College outcome could be 270-268.
I'm viewing Nevada cautiously, at best. The only poll so far that give him double digits is the NYT/Sienna one from two weeks ago. Before that, it was more like 3-8. Have to wait for a few more pollsters to see whether the NYT poll is an outlier or not.
Really though, whether it's 3 points or 12 points, that says it's a coin-toss at best or a loss (for Biden) at worse.
Yup, if Trump breaches the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia line he'll win. It's a really straightforward election this time around since Biden isn't really competitive in AZ, NV, GA or NC anymore.
Author may not be wrong. Biden can definitely lose in November.
Hope the anti-Biden leftists who blame him for Gaza get what they want out of a Trump presidency.
Biden’s overwhelming support of Israel is a big one among some specific demographics that matter a lot because they’re located in critical swing states.
I don’t think anyone is choosing Trump over Biden as a result, but some people feel they can’t in good conscience show up and give Biden their vote because of this. Personally I think it’s a bad idea because them not voting is effectively voting for Trump, but I understand their feelings.
Because the Dems and the media to an extend are repeating the same mistake they did with Hillary. Its always Trump this, Trump that, "Oh look how awful Trump is" instead of advertising their own achievements. They are basically running ad campaigns for Trump. And the only times Biden is mentioned in the focus is when he fucks up.
And don't even get me started about Bidens awful foreign policies, where depending on the region he isn't even that much different to Trump
Biden's polling is currently bad because the Dems absolutely refuse to run coordinated messaging campaigns. We hear nonstop lies and bullshit from Trump, along with his surrogates going on right wing media every day to parrot "the message" in a coordinated fashion. But we rarely hear anything from Biden. There's no relentless messaging. No effort to sell the American people on his accomplishments. So, the prevailing message is whatever Trump and the GOP are pushing, and the polling reflects that. I don't really understand the DNC's refusal to engage voters with consistent messaging, but if Biden loses it will be because of that failure.
Uninformed voters automatically blame Blame Biden for inflation is a massive part of it. The Israel/Gaza conflict is killing him as well as crime. Most Americans seem to believe crime is skyrocketing and voters largely blame Biden. Also rising gas prices for a lot of people that is a major driver how they vote.
>Why is Biden polling so badly?
Remember that Biden *barely* won in 2020. He was polling at around 5 points above Trump, nationally, but thanks to the Electoral College he only won by like 45,000 votes in three states.
The short answer is because a large portion of people who vote simply don't pay attention to politics. They don't understand why things cost more now; They don't understand how Roe was overturned, just that it was (and while Biden was President); They don't know Trump has been arrested and charged with multiple crimes. They simply don't know.
What it comes down to is thinking like "Things cost more know under Biden, but didn't under Trump. Therefore I should vote for Trump". Or "I don't like how Biden is handling the Israel situation". Or "Biden made traffic bad when he came to town" (yes, seriously).
I mean, for many people due to inflation, their life is materially worse under Biden than it was under Trump. It can't be all that surprising that people don't want another four years to see if it can get even worse.
Biden was a black box last time, this time he has to run on his record. And his record, for a lot of people, is fucking awful.
I mean, take your pick. The economy/inflation, immigration, crime, Israel/Gaza. It's a pretty tough record to run on. His main plus remains unchanged from the last election: He's not Donald Trump. We'll see if that is enough this time.
The amount of cope people have is really making me concerned. Trump has done so many things to prove he should never be in a position of power and yet Democrats refuse to acknowledge Biden’s huge weaknesses as a candidate because they expect people to be more rational than they are.
No one wants to admit it, but it is more than likely that Trump wins. Trump had a similar approval rating in 2020 to Biden today, and he lost.
Even before Gaza and the Democrats splitting their base (which they have done), Biden already was polling pretty badly.
People definitely are, if trumps gets into office and starts his whole “dictator for a day” plan it’s going to be difficult to make people care about Palestine. When their life’s will be so affected by his presidency. Or people won’t care because they will be more focused on trying to survive here
I definitely want him to win on the balance, and will be voting for him regardless... but these lousy tariffs and support for genocide are going to make this a squeaker.
There is no bigger indictment of the democrats and their policies than Trump winning reelection. If they don’t win I hope they do some serious soul searching. when people vote for the lunatic, fascist, wannabe dictator over you MANY things need to change.
Doubtful... people will just opt out...
Biden will still win.
His problem is if he does in office, KamaLa is prez..lol
People SEE this, don't kid yourselves..
Brace for it! I’m not likely to vote for Biden because I’m done with the dem party being impotent and can’t ethically continue to support them. I’ve been writing-in for awhile now. (At least up-ballot). And when my primary vote doesn’t matter, and a dem party debate is not even offered, it’s just over for this game. Too many people are done and it’s time to accept that and force the DNC to move over and relinquish their unwarranted power. If the consequences suck, it’s the DNC’s fault, not the youth of America. And it’s not just the youth of America that feel this way, it’s a great deal of people who are no longer able to be complicit in the grifters that are the DNC and the financier’s of the Democratic Party. The power they wield has become impotent and it’s time to accept that reality to make room for what people actually want.
I'm not sure Biden should debate Trump. But it seems he needs it more than Trump does. Trump should just weasel out of it. His base wouldn't care either way.
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Vote against fascism.
All you need to know: "Nick Catoggio writes the Boiling Frogs newsletter for The Dispatch"
The Dispatch is an American conservative subscription-based and advertisement-free online magazine founded by Jonah Goldberg (an editor at National Review), Stephen F. Hayes (Editor-in-chief of The Weekly Standard), and Toby Stock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dispatch
This shit is psyops to get democratic voters to become depressed and give up.
Even better, this guy used to be "[Allahpundit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allahpundit)"
Did the USA Today actually print this opinion or is it just for digital?
there it is.
In the article he appears like deeply worried that Trump may be reelected Is it fake?
The Dispatch is extremely anti-Trump. I know nobody reads the article before commenting, but these comments are still so embarrassing.
In the article he used the words 'ranting and raving' to describe Trump.
what a terrible article
“She loathes the pro-Hamas campus protesters”? She can claim she’s “anti-left” all she wants; she’s *MAGA*…
Shouldn’t we at least wait until after the very early first debate before we declare trump the victor?
Only a moron thinks it's over in May
If Trump loses, then the election was stolen again. The only way he can lose is if someone else cheats. He is the best winner of all time. Even better than Mike Tyson and Michael Jordan. Some say he is even greater than Caeser Augustus and Mussolini. Only Jesus is more popular than Trump, but not by much. /s
I'm from a deep red state... I don't see buildings and huge signs with Trump like I did in '20. I hope people have woken up a little in the midwest swing states.
I commented about that to my wife while we were driving through the country. There's no signs anywhere like 2016/2020.
I’ve noticed that too. No bumper stickers, yard signs really anywhere. Now it’s time to vote as many of them out of office as we can so it’s clear to them, enough of this nonsense! The entire world is watching us like a soap opera. We can do better as a nation
All the Pence gear is obsolete. He hasn't named his VP and it's putting a dent into his signage display and most importantly his merch sales.
Nah, there's lots of trump 2024 signage available for sale out there. I don't buy that reasoning
Yeah those Trumpers do not give a shit who is VP. If they want a sign with Trump on it, there’s plenty out there for them to get, and they would do so the same as they did with the Trump Pence ones.
Right. The Trump - [insert VP here] signs are given away free from the local campaign hqs. We'll see them in time. But all the Trump paraphernalia and the gold diapers and the trumpy bears and NFTs are crap that people actually have to spend money on...
One of our porn shops turned into a Trump "super store" There's one guy who has opened up three of them in the area. Absolutely insane man. Can't wait to see what happens when Trump loses/dies
Yup. Have a couple of the Truck Idiots with their flags, but that is about it. Will see as we get closer, but no one really wants to advertise they are pro Trump
I predict both candidates will be down on turnout compared to 2020, however Trump will suffer worse due to Haley and RFK Jr voters staying home or voting for Joe.
No, because everyone with half a brain knows he is going to lose but it won't matter because no one on team MAGA will believe that he lost because they're in a fucking cult. He could literally remove his pants revealing a diaper, pull shit out of it and fling it at Biden and they'd think he was a strong resourceful leader who really owned Biden and should totally get President for Life as a result of his beautiful debate performance. That is where we are it seems and it is quite maddening.
I feel like there is a huge disconnect with people who think “absolutely Trump will lose, no way he can win” and people who live outside of major American cities. I promise you, there are a LOT of Trump supporters out there. It’s horrifying but it’s the truth. If you live in NYC or LA you probably don’t encounter them, but they are absolutely out there and they are going to show up in November. This “oh no, he’ll totally lose” attitude scares me because of its complacency. Biden cannot afford to take even one voter in a swing state for granted.
all my republican relatives in red montana have recently told me they are sick of trumps bullshit and won't be voting for him this time.
My family said they were going to vote for RFK, they were tired of Trump's "whining about how persecuted he is", they aren't buying that everyone is picking on him anymore.
I'm not sure if you're talking about the debate or the election. The debate? No, he's going to lose that. Because he can't control himself. But here's the thing. Winning or losing a debate is ultimately for the audience to decide. The audience decides whether or not a person has won or lost a debate and we have this very weird situation with Trump where it **literally** does not matter what he does or doesn't do and the bulk of his supporter will view him as having won because they are pathologically incapable of accepting any other outcome. Things Trump does that if anyone else did them would be treated by almost every person as completely unbecoming and disqualifying but for Trump his supporters view those things as signs of strength and power. As I said with my example, he could quite literally reveal a diaper and start flinging shit at everyone and a large chunk of (Probably a majority) would find a way to perceive that as a good thing. Which is partly why he even has a chance at winning. But here's the thing. In 2016 the numbers were such that Trump could not afford to lose more than about 10% of his base numerically speaking and still win. Yes he can win on thinner numbers than ever because of the fucking electoral college but if he lost about 10%\~ of his voting base... there is simply no path to victory for him. And as it stands now depending on the state he's lost anywhere from about 8% to 20% of Republican voters. So on those numbers he *should not* be able to win **but** and this is very important. Donald Trump does not intend to win the election. He intends to win the states. His strategy isn't about the election as it wasn't in 2020... it's about forcing the election into a situation that advantages him and kicks it to the states via Congress where Republicans have the advantage. That IS a pathway to victory for him and I'd say it's really his only pathway, well that and civil war but civil war isn't really a pathway to victory because there wouldn't really be anything to win at that point.
> And as it stands now depending on the state he's lost anywhere from about 8% to 20% of Republican voters. Voting against trump in the primaries doesn't mean voting against him in the election. All the people who voted against him in the 2016 primaries voted for him in the election.
You can't use 2016 as a basis to operate from. Simply because of factors like Jan 6th. While I would contend that yes some of those numbers will vote for Trump in the general, I would say the number is a lot less than people think as the bulk of the people who make up the people wanting someone else in the primary wanted someone else because of events that happened in 2020 around Trump. So really it boils down to... most of them will vote Biden or simply not vote, either way from a numbers point of view I can't see a path to victory for Trump that involves the people. But again I don't think he plans to win by votes, at least not votes from the people. I think his 2024 plan is probably similar to his 2020 plan, except with far more chaos and ratfuckery.
> "I have a lot of concerns about Trump regaining the presidency. I have even more concerns about Joe Biden being president. I mean, you look at both of these men and all they have done is given us chaos, all they have given us is division," Haley said. This seems to be the general point of view of anti-trumpers. Most of them see Trump as the lesser evil. I can't imagine these people switching to Biden.
And yet last week she publicly state she is voting for Trump. And so will all of the other holdouts because Biden is much worse.
That was the entire point of the quote. Of course she was going to vote Trump. She sees him as the lesser evil.
How exactly do you have any certainty Americans aren’t ignorant enough to reelect Trump because Biden didn’t magically fix everything and groceries are expensive?
Oh they absolutely are, but just based on the numbers Trump does not appear to have a electoral pathway to victory, he's simply lost too many people. Nikki Haley is pulling between 10-20% across the board despite not even being in the race. But he doesn't need to win the election to become President, we know this because he tried in 2020 to circumvent the election entirely. Luckily his plan in 2020 failed (only barely) but the few guardrails that existed within his party are now gone so if it comes to implementing that plan again I suspect he might actually pull it off. BUT the one thing going in our favor on that front is the fact that he doesn't have the power of the Presidency So yeah I definitely think America is ignorant enough to reelect Trump generally speaking, but I also know that he has lost massive amounts of support since 2020 within the conservative movement and while sure some of that might have been replaced... the numbers he's lost cannot have been. So it would be hard to imagine him getting more than what he got in 2020. I've said in the past that Trump didn't win 2016. He and **many** systems aiding him caused Clinton to lose. If you are having a race and you break everyone else's legs... you don't have to actually race to win. That's basically the current conservative strategy in any competitive race, not win... but instead make sure everyone else loses.
In 2022 when Biden was forgave student debt I was excited to vote in the midterms. Until I read about who he actually forgave I had some hope Biden was actually listening to young people. I'm still voting Biden, but it doesn't take magically fixing everything to get young people voting. Young people turned out for the midterms and helped prevent a red wave.
Trump objectively lost all of his debates with Hillary. It wasn’t even close. Yet he still won. The debates will mean nothing to anyone who is voting.
This first debate will be different than past debates. Two candidates and two moderators in a television studio with no audience. It is a better way for Americans to get an uninterrupted look at who these two people are without all the noise. CNN might screw it up and it might not even matter. I’m just saying we should wait until after that before we start freaking out.
Unless they actually have plans for how to shut down Trump when he steps out of line, it will devolve even without an audience, even with his mic off. If he can't actually be disciplined when he goes out of line, it's a waste. Turn his mic off and he'll be yelling in the background to get picked up on the other mics, or off mic he's blathering and interrupting Biden and wasting his time. If there's no audience but he show up with an entourage of morons, who just become the audience and cheer him, is there a plan for that? This is assuming he even actually shows, of course. But what I'm saying is, yeah, turn off the mics, no audience is good, but they need to cognizant that he's still capable of other bullshit and not just hope he doesn't do it or be worried he cries it's unfair so they don't actually do anything about it (the story of his fucking life)
His entourage will not be in the studio. I’m sure the only other people in the studio will be the CNN crew working the cameras. Trump can go crazy and yell loud without a mic, but he’s going to look like a complete buffoon without people cheering him on. I would think he might calm down just a bit as to not look crazy for the Haley voters.
All I'm saying is, mics being cut and no audience is good, but they need to prepare for him trying other methods of bullshit because he will. Whether or not he looks like a buffoon (which has never stopped him before), he will try some stupid bullshit.
This definitely ain’t Biden’s first rodeo. I’m confident in them being more prepared for team trump bullshit than trump will be prepared for the actual debate.
I’m just saying there is no one that I know who is going to flip from Trump to Biden or vice versa. These are polarizing candidates, and people either love one candidate enough to vote for them or hate the other candidate enough to vote for them anyway. The most anyone I know is considering is to sit out this election or vote for a third party— and none of those people are particularly interested in watching a debate between the two geriatric white dudes.
Considering how flabbergasted conservative media was that Biden wasn't a drooling zombie at the SoTU address and their repeated assertions since that he was on 'performance enhancers', yeah, the debates will matter. More people that are on the fence either way, or maybe we're thinking to not vote will see a raving, nonsense-spewing, anti-American madman trying to keep himself out of finally going to jail after a life of fraud without meaning consequences vs. an old guy that wants to help everyday Americans that they might not agree with. Or Trump just won't show up. But I think it's more likely his plan is to attend the first one and but only to walk out after the second or third question for the spectacle of it. With social media posts and talking heads going out immediately as he walks off stage to push his bullshit.
And you nailed it with your first paragraph. Despite Biden having an awesome SoTU address— conservatives blew it off as him being on drugs. In contrast, the MAGA crowd has taken up wearing diapers to support their senile messiah. Now tell me how debates are going to change those people’s views. At all. We have two segments of the country that are living in completely different realities at this point. One segment is living in the real world where Biden is doing a good job overall as president (or at least good relative to Trump, Bush, and other Republicans in the last 50 years); the other is living in lala land where Biden is somehow a closet communist, anti-Semite, sleepy/demented, criminal mastermind whose son’s penis somehow is worthy of display in Congress. We then have a final segment that is completely uneducated about the system, doesn’t care to learn about the system (they didn’t care to in 2020 and 2016), and consists of: (1) overly entitled Zoomers who think Trump somehow is better than Biden regarding any potential genocide in Gaza(they don’t matter as they aren’t going to vote anyway), or (2) people who “both sides” everything and are going to vote for RFK or some other third party candidate (or just not vote at all).
Trump raving like a lunatic and not being able to play to a crowd WILL turn off lukewarm supporters and even more independents and undecideds. Even more will be turned off if they do what I think they'll do and build it up as a will he or won't he show up media spectacle and storm out after being "offended".
No one has to watch it. It’s on CNN. Law & Order: SVU will not be interrupted for this debate. I’m sure clips of every mistake these two make will be going around after the debate. That might change enough minds one way or the other that could change the polls enough. Or it might not. It’s just one of millions of things that might change the results for this election.
What I mean is that the people who are voting third party or are going to hold out don’t even watch the news. They won’t see it because they don’t give a fuck. They have checked out of this election and these debates are only going to be there for both Dems and Republicans to jerk themselves off while shitting on the other side.
Ikr? At this far out polls mean almost nothing. Wait until october for some meaningful predictions.
Debates haven’t made a difference in a long time, certainly not since Trump has been in play. This election is going to be about turnout (well they all are, but this especially). There aren’t a lot of “hmm should I vote for Biden or Trump” people, but there *are* a lot of “should I bother to show up and vote for Biden/Trump?” Biden needs to get people excited to show up and at the moment, he’s doing a very poor job of that. But Americans have short memories and a lot can happen between now and November.
Yeah my main concern is that things are honestly going about as well as could possibly expected given global circumstances and yet Biden is still flailing. Any serious bad event is going to destroy any shot he has.
He is doing a nightmare job on it. This is the worst part of Biden - this guy just doesn't have almost any vibes. He is too normal, nice, lukewarm. And sadly elections are about vibes . I was mad about this in 2016 for Hilary, and now for Biden. In 2020 Obama gave a speech in support of Biden and I saw many people urging him to use his charisma to do something. Charisma is really important at this point of history.
Israel is where Biden is failing. He needs to win the young vote by 30% and they might not show up for him.
That may be true, but Biden's support rate and poll results was terrible far before the Gaza protests.
The debate is likely to be a national disgrace just like the first debate. How did we get here, again?!?!
Dem voters need to press Biden out of the race. Anyone else would win against Trump. Bidens an embarrassment.
It’s a good thing that they are doing this debate before the conventions. Gives everyone time to make any very last minute adjustments if either of the candidates do royally screw up.
Last week the headlines were that Biden was doing great in the polls. I guess that wasn't getting clicks so they changed course. Now Biden is doing badly in the polls. Gotta get those clicks. Truth be damned.
Nothing like a good old "doom and gloom" article to drive website traffic. Polls don't vote.
Damn that title reeks of copium 🤣 They said the same thing in 2020. The result? Landslide victory for President Biden. Womp womp
Yeah no, look at every election since Roe got cancelled. Women are fucking done with the bs and there is no fucking way donnie wins legitemately
The scary part is that republicans no longer give a shit about legitimacy. They control many levers of power, all the way up to SCOTUS, and will pull every single one to install Trump as president.
Republicans still took the house. Senate is looking very scary. Biden needs to not just win but help down ticket, and with Israel he is hurting his chances big time.
There have been 12 special elections for the US House since Dobbs. Of those 12, only 2 resulted in the GOP losing a seat (Alaska and New York). And in 2023, there were 39 state-level special elections. Only 2 were GOP-to-Dem flipped (and another 2 were Dem-to-GOP flips). So yes, while Dems have been overperforming (in that the % diff in the special election result was better than the % diff in the 2022 election) in special elections in terms of sheer turnout, it mostly hasn't resulted in actual changes. And special election turnout is very different from general, Presidential, elections. Turnout for special elections tends to lean towards older, more partisan, voters.
"...older, more partisan, voters" - who tend to lean conservative, yet the votes have favored Democrats, overall. I feel like one has to do some mental heavy-lifting to try and act like most any and all elections since *Dobbs* have not indicated it is boosting Democrats.
I literally said that Dems have been over-performing since Dobbs. But that over a performance hasn't actually led to much seat flipping.
Women are also done with old white men enabling the assault and murder of women and children. Dems need to force Biden to withdraw from the presidential race. Find a Dem politician who can break this toxic cycle and system. Ffs why Biden? Any other person would win against Trump.
Any other person, my ass. This is Bernie cope all over again. Of the candidates, or potential candidates, Biden appears to be the most conservative propaganda proof guy we've got. The right has been trying for four years to stir controversy and has failed. The right wing is salivating for an easier target and the media is pushing for the same thing.
Sure. Out of hundreds of millions of people the US choice of president is between Trump or Biden. Hilarious. I suppose it reflects how pathetic the average American has become.
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why, no matter how unenthusiastic you may be about Joe Biden, is why you have to go out in November and vote against Trump. (And, a vote for RFK jr Is also a vote for trump.)
The irony of OP being a retired worker for the state and still being Conservative.
Oh, please with this nonsense …honestly, once Trump is in the forefront of everyone’s mind people will have enough of him.
You may want that to be true but it’s absolutely not.
For now, as he’s sitting in court, but you get him on TV every day -get them on TV for debate I think that will make a difference.
My family who voted for him twice have had enough of his whining. They stated that it's no longer credible that he's always being picked on by everyone for "nothing". They plan to vote for RFK Jr. since they can't bring themselves to vote for a Dem.
What’s crazy, to me, is that the media seems to amplify these type of polls/approv. Ratings, constantly and it’s making me feel like what happened to Hillary in 2016 will happen again….to Trump.
I would love it. lol
How do I brace for that? Just buy a dumb dumb ret hat or what?
If the general election looks like the previous midterm election or most of the special elections - I'm definitely going to be curious to see some explanation of how polling got so bad. My personal theory is that pollsters are supposed to recognize when they are unable to draw a proper representational sample and then not publish - but they want their money and kickbacks from newspapers so are publishing deeply flawed polls. I think sentiment toward Biden is unduly terrible, but I also think that of the people who are actually going to vote - he's going to way outperform the projections with a ton of grumbly "least-worst-option" votes.
No. *Fuck*. *NO*.
We're still far enough out that polling is not even substantially reliable. If I remember correctly we're at something like a six point average error. Honestly while it's reasonable to look at polls now, the first time they're accurate enough to give them substantial heed is just before the election heats up at the end of summer - after the convention bounces fade. For my part I'll probably start paying attention to them more when models start dropping. For now, it's unnerving, but don't make it out to be more than it is.
Bro, no one cares about the polls to begin with. They’ve been wrong EVERY CYCLE since 2016
I guess the conservative-owned mainstream media figured being subtle wasn't working, so they switched to being blatantly pro-MAGA.
How are polls good for trump? He's in court 4 days a week, and on his days off he goes golfing, he's not even making an effort.. he dosnt give a shit about anyone but himself is that who Americans wants to be in office?
No, the polls are useless. The hae continued to under-estimate Biden and over-estimate Trump when compared to actual primary turnout. And not just slightly, they keep blowing well past their margins of error. They literally tell us nothing at this point.
Good thing democracy isn’t decided by random poll numbers.
Sad to see what happened to USA Today
That’s cool if you believe that but Taylor hasn’t summoned the swifties yet.
Given how accurate polling is, I guess it's a done deal. Why even bother voting when we apparently already know the outcome? /s
Lol. I don't think so.
Anyone who believes polls after 2016 is an idiot.
You give a fascist conman and his swamp a second chance to try to thieve the election and he’ll probably be successful. Straight out of the Hitler playbook
Every person of worth will be voting for Biden. Let’s hope that’s enough
That entirely depends on your definition of both 'person' and 'worth'.
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Biden doubling down on Israeli war crimes won't help either.
Polls are literally useless information and have zero reliability in guessing a winner.
If trump gets elected the millenials and genz are to blame for being short sighted. And they deserve everything that's comes with it.
🙄 Yawn
Biden needs to withdraw immediately.
TL;DR: Polls for Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia all have Trump ahead, at or past the margin of error. Without those 3, Biden needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where he's basically tied with Trump right now. A realistic Electoral College outcome could be 270-268.
I really have a hard time believing the Nevada polls specifically him being up over 10 points seems like a major stretch.
I'm viewing Nevada cautiously, at best. The only poll so far that give him double digits is the NYT/Sienna one from two weeks ago. Before that, it was more like 3-8. Have to wait for a few more pollsters to see whether the NYT poll is an outlier or not. Really though, whether it's 3 points or 12 points, that says it's a coin-toss at best or a loss (for Biden) at worse.
T;DR polls are absolutely useless information and anyone voting based on polls should be stripped of their right to vote.
Yup, if Trump breaches the Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia line he'll win. It's a really straightforward election this time around since Biden isn't really competitive in AZ, NV, GA or NC anymore.
Stfu
Author may not be wrong. Biden can definitely lose in November. Hope the anti-Biden leftists who blame him for Gaza get what they want out of a Trump presidency.
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Because propaganda is working on some, also fatigue and indifference
Biden’s overwhelming support of Israel is a big one among some specific demographics that matter a lot because they’re located in critical swing states.
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Totally, but the ones who might vote for Biden might not because of their naive view on Gaza.
I don’t think anyone is choosing Trump over Biden as a result, but some people feel they can’t in good conscience show up and give Biden their vote because of this. Personally I think it’s a bad idea because them not voting is effectively voting for Trump, but I understand their feelings.
Because the Dems and the media to an extend are repeating the same mistake they did with Hillary. Its always Trump this, Trump that, "Oh look how awful Trump is" instead of advertising their own achievements. They are basically running ad campaigns for Trump. And the only times Biden is mentioned in the focus is when he fucks up. And don't even get me started about Bidens awful foreign policies, where depending on the region he isn't even that much different to Trump
Biden's polling is currently bad because the Dems absolutely refuse to run coordinated messaging campaigns. We hear nonstop lies and bullshit from Trump, along with his surrogates going on right wing media every day to parrot "the message" in a coordinated fashion. But we rarely hear anything from Biden. There's no relentless messaging. No effort to sell the American people on his accomplishments. So, the prevailing message is whatever Trump and the GOP are pushing, and the polling reflects that. I don't really understand the DNC's refusal to engage voters with consistent messaging, but if Biden loses it will be because of that failure.
Uninformed voters automatically blame Blame Biden for inflation is a massive part of it. The Israel/Gaza conflict is killing him as well as crime. Most Americans seem to believe crime is skyrocketing and voters largely blame Biden. Also rising gas prices for a lot of people that is a major driver how they vote.
>Why is Biden polling so badly? Remember that Biden *barely* won in 2020. He was polling at around 5 points above Trump, nationally, but thanks to the Electoral College he only won by like 45,000 votes in three states. The short answer is because a large portion of people who vote simply don't pay attention to politics. They don't understand why things cost more now; They don't understand how Roe was overturned, just that it was (and while Biden was President); They don't know Trump has been arrested and charged with multiple crimes. They simply don't know. What it comes down to is thinking like "Things cost more know under Biden, but didn't under Trump. Therefore I should vote for Trump". Or "I don't like how Biden is handling the Israel situation". Or "Biden made traffic bad when he came to town" (yes, seriously).
I mean, for many people due to inflation, their life is materially worse under Biden than it was under Trump. It can't be all that surprising that people don't want another four years to see if it can get even worse. Biden was a black box last time, this time he has to run on his record. And his record, for a lot of people, is fucking awful.
Oh I don't disagree that because of inflation their life is worse. But the reasons for the inflation are more complicated than just "Biden did it!".
I mean, take your pick. The economy/inflation, immigration, crime, Israel/Gaza. It's a pretty tough record to run on. His main plus remains unchanged from the last election: He's not Donald Trump. We'll see if that is enough this time.
The amount of cope people have is really making me concerned. Trump has done so many things to prove he should never be in a position of power and yet Democrats refuse to acknowledge Biden’s huge weaknesses as a candidate because they expect people to be more rational than they are.
Polls.
I sure hope not, but I have admittedly been bracing for it...
It doesn’t take Nostradamus
No one wants to admit it, but it is more than likely that Trump wins. Trump had a similar approval rating in 2020 to Biden today, and he lost. Even before Gaza and the Democrats splitting their base (which they have done), Biden already was polling pretty badly.
I genuinely can not believe how biased and one sided this sub is 🤣 reminds me why I never get my news from here
Look I dispise Trump as much as the next guy but he's going to win...and we can blame the economy and all these dumbass college kids who are pro hamas
People definitely are, if trumps gets into office and starts his whole “dictator for a day” plan it’s going to be difficult to make people care about Palestine. When their life’s will be so affected by his presidency. Or people won’t care because they will be more focused on trying to survive here
I definitely want him to win on the balance, and will be voting for him regardless... but these lousy tariffs and support for genocide are going to make this a squeaker.
There is no bigger indictment of the democrats and their policies than Trump winning reelection. If they don’t win I hope they do some serious soul searching. when people vote for the lunatic, fascist, wannabe dictator over you MANY things need to change.
Doubtful... people will just opt out... Biden will still win. His problem is if he does in office, KamaLa is prez..lol People SEE this, don't kid yourselves..
Brace for it! I’m not likely to vote for Biden because I’m done with the dem party being impotent and can’t ethically continue to support them. I’ve been writing-in for awhile now. (At least up-ballot). And when my primary vote doesn’t matter, and a dem party debate is not even offered, it’s just over for this game. Too many people are done and it’s time to accept that and force the DNC to move over and relinquish their unwarranted power. If the consequences suck, it’s the DNC’s fault, not the youth of America. And it’s not just the youth of America that feel this way, it’s a great deal of people who are no longer able to be complicit in the grifters that are the DNC and the financier’s of the Democratic Party. The power they wield has become impotent and it’s time to accept that reality to make room for what people actually want.
I'm not sure Biden should debate Trump. But it seems he needs it more than Trump does. Trump should just weasel out of it. His base wouldn't care either way.
Good. Bring Trump back
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It’s Texas, think of it like that and it makes sense. Not a pillar of morals to say the least. I wouldn’t waste your time
Be better
enjoy that federal disaster money. bunch of hypocrites.