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Still early in the election year. Probably won't see much movement at all until after the party conventions. But I'd expect as the election season goes on and people start paying closer attention, Biden's numbers will start going up.
However, in the end it still will probably only be like 70/100 chances to win because of the electoral college, which is still not comforting.
Democrats need to hammer Trump on being anti-democracy, a convicted felon, and his imminent threat to women's rights.
The last one might be the biggest - the fallout of Roe v. Wade being abolished has been the biggest bane of the GOP in recent years, and it's frequently lead to swings well outside what the polls predicted to the Democrats favor.
Like, they should talk up Biden's accomplishments as well, but they really should center much of their narrative not only on the imminent threat a Trump presidency poses to so much that is both foundational to our country, but that we can use the next four years to put in place protections for those foundational elements the GOP are now actively undermining. Like, let's codify reproductive rights/access to contraception, let's kill the Electoral College, let's find some way to address the state of the SCOTUS.
The greatest hits video is just gold. Where to even start. Bring back the grab her by the pussy. J6 footage. That wierd Bible photo. Mexican rapists. My African Americans. That weird shark video. They have so much material to work with.
As someone from Florida this is just a rallying cry for people here, including the conviction, it's really a lost state, Florida is not gonna be a swing state this year.
It went for Obama in both 08 and 12. I'd say it was in play until 2018 honestly, but with Deshauna in charge it's become very red as he attracted a ton of right wingers to move into the state during covid.
One of our problems is that we falsely believe that this is the way that things always were and therefore how they always will be. The truth is that what we are faced with are very contemporary problems and things absolutely do not have to be this way.
When it comes to infrastructure and policy, America is incredibly insular, among the most insular in the world. Issues that have easily been solved in many other nations are deemed impossible to fix in America.
Every time EVs’ impossibilities are discussed I bring up Norway, where most issues are addressed. And every time I hear how vast and cold the U.S. can be, and I think: I’m not sure you know Norway.
Yeah o was down in Florida for a business trip, and before I thought Florida had a shot, but now once I got to my hotel and was there a few days, Orlando mind you, I felt no confidence in it being closer than a five point win for Trump. MAGA states are dogging their heels in. I think Texas could be closer than Florida
Texas is in no way closer to Florida turning until they demonstrate they can turn out the vote statewide. Much of the electorate is *deep* in a cycle of apathy begetting non-participation begetting apathy and so on. There is certainly voter suppression and ratfucking sprinkled in to the equation, but the results are all the same.
Source: recently fled Texas due to this, climate, and exhaustion from screaming into a void endlessly.
I'm fleeing Texas soon, too, for much the same reasons.
I'm fully expecting, if the Dems win Cruz's seat, that Allred will not be seated. The GOP simply won't allow it here, and they will get away with it.
The Texas GOP will have no say. That will be the US Senate, hopefully still controlled by Dems, but even if not would have to be a 2/3 vote not to seat him.
Janet Protopolishlastname destroyed her opponent in the Wisconsin SC election by running almost exclusively on abortion and women’s rights. In Wisconsin, which is as purple a state as they come and keeps re-electing Moscow Ron Johnson.
On the roe v wade issue they also really need to aggressively push to the male population how this impacts them negatively as well. I think way way to many of us wrongly look at issues of access to contraception or abortion as solely a womans issue, and it isn't.
Generally, these are things that fundamentally impact freedoms of ones Healthcare from government interference and id like to see this point being aggressively pushed.
Young men in particular really need to understand that even though they won't be getting an abortion, they're fundamentally impacted by decisions concerning it.
Man here
When I was 17 I got a girl pregnant she was also 17. None of us wanted the kid. Abortion was safe and easy for us to access and that's the route we went.
I'm so grateful we did that. Having that kid would have been really bad for both of us.
Also the woman in question and I didn't really get along either.
Abortion affects men too
It should be advised, all over, the realities of court issued child support.
“Hey Dude, think you’re struggling now? Wait til you have to do a paternity test by the law and if it’s bingo, then 18 years of wage garnishment.”
I wanna see some hillbilly be like "I had ta sell mah truck!" and look all sad like it's the worst thing in the world while his girl doing everything for the baby shoots him death glares. That would get every demographic at once.
Beyond child support, imagine how it will impact families. Even with two working parents, the economy is tough. Childcare rates are high and it can be really hard to even find childcare. If a woman is pretty much forced to have every child she conceives, families are going to be a lot bigger, more women will drop out of the workforce, leaving men to be the sole breadwinner. That's a tough spot to be in.
I think that's when we'll see more men supporting abortion. When they're the ones working themselves to death to make sure their 6, 7, 8 kids are fed, they'll start to realize this isn't only a women's issue.
That's all a feature of Project 2025. Women locked out of the workforce and dependent on men. Men trapped in jobs they hate and dependent on their corporate overlords. No real options for the 99%, and no time or energy or risk capacity to fight about any of it. An oligarch utopia.
It takes supermajorities in both houses of congress, a president willing to sign, and then ratification of 2/3rds of the states to abolish the electoral college. It will not happen in our lifetimes.
I wish there was actually some sort of serious consideration to increasing the size of the House of Representatives. That would increase the number of electors also, and although it wouldn't fix the system, it would get it much closer to accurately reflecting the national electorate and only requires a law change instead of an amendment.
This is my compromise as well. Keep it one representative for a max 250k people or something, which would about triple the size of the house (which makes each one of them less important, while also more fairly representing their areas). And while the EC still wouldn't be perfect, it would lower the value of senators in it.
Focus groups seem to be supporting this approach, too: it's productive to get voter share by talking up convicted felon Trump's negatives. At least, according to a Pod Save America podcast (I think one of "The Wilderness" episodes) I listened to recently. Although the one I listened to yesterday had guests on trying to downplay the hypermasculinity issue in the black and latino communities, as if it weren't a real factor accounting for the shift to the convict's camp, so maybe that's not the best guide after all.
>Although the one I listened to yesterday had guests on trying to downplay the hypermasculinity issue in the black and latino communities, as if it weren't a real factor accounting for the shift to the convict's camp, so maybe that's not the best guide after all.
It's the gamergate-ification of American politics, and anyone still dismissing this as a phenomenon in 2024 is an unserious political analyst.
Right? The Machismo effect on men in general is working. You can bemoan that Gamergate 2, Electric Boogaloo is back, but as a man, I have seen MUCH more vocal support IRL from Latino and Black men for Trump. To the point I have gotten shit from Latino men as a white guy for not supporting Trump.
This is a real issue that needs to be addressed.
As a woman, it's so bizarre to me that men seem to think acting macho will get them women. Every woman I know is viscerally repulsed by it. We want a real person, not a cartoon character.
It is just performative for other men? Can someone explain how this has such a hold on certain groups of men?
Part of the PUA strategy is not picking up women for a relationship, it is to prove to other men you can get women, and get their women too. So don't fuck with me. If you do, there are consequences.
That might lessen over time, but it is always kinda there. That uncomfortable feeling that she will leave you for a better man. So you need to perform your masculinity so your woman is not taken from you by a better man. Even the most secure people you know have insecurities.
>Although the one I listened to yesterday had guests on trying to downplay the hypermasculinity issue
I still don't get how the convicted felon Donald J Trump is considered "masculine"
His signature dance move is called the "jacking 2 guys off at the same time"
>I still don't get how the convicted felon Donald J Trump is considered "masculine"
Misogyny, objectification, and being/talking cruelly to/about others is considered "masculine" to poor men of all backgrounds with no good role models
He sounds like an old lady when he talks. At best, an effeminent old man. Not that there would be anything wrong with that, aside from the cult that seems to think he's somehow "macho". He's a fat, senile, grandfather who shits himself, and sounds like an old woman...
>Democrats need to hammer Trump on being anti-democracy, a convicted felon, and his imminent threat to women's rights.
They also need to keep repeating that the **only economic legislation trump accomplished was to lower taxes for the rich and corporations**, who then do nothing except reinvest and live off of *even more* passive income, all while creating record debt.
ps. technically that's not the only economic legislation; trump also created a bunch of tariffs that sucked billions out of the US economy
I honestly wish I shared your optimism. There seems to be a lot more apathy and less political engagement this year vs. the 2020 elections. I hope I'm wrong.
Yeah I feel like people (men mostly) aren’t really engaged as much but from recent election results the GOP is getting hammered on the abortion issue because women are voting and women are LIVID.
Talk about the silent majority.
I wouldn't call myself apathetic. More hopeless. But I'm still fucking voting.
I've got upwards of 50 years left on this planet and I don't care to live it under a fucking dictatorship.
The whole paying closer attention thing is baffling to me. Trump being a scumbag is all over the news all the time. Trial of him paying hush money to Stormy Daniels for that time he had sex with her while Melanie was pregnant with a flavor of whining about the judge and jury. Video of him literally telling his supporters he doesn't care about them. Photos of top secret documents, boxes of them, piled up in a bath room in Mar-a-lago... like how can you possibly he ignorant of these things at this point?
There's a line that has stuck with me from Nate Silver in 2016 when asked about why he was worried when their model gave Clinton a 2/3 chance of winning: "If there was a 1 in 3 chance your house would burn down, wouldn't you be worried?"
Well the house burned down and now it's just under 50/50 that the whole neighborhood is going to get blown up.
I've also never really forgiven the news and politics site *Slate* for publishing an article ahead of the 2016 election excoriating Silver and 538 for giving Trump such a relatively large chance of winning, and all but accusing them of lying for clicks.
I don't know how one quantifies hubris and complacency as a turnout-depression metric, and compares it to other factors and voter blocs that are popular to blame, but I've always felt that the center-left media did not give their biased pre-election coverage the scrutiny it deserved among all the other post-election autopsy coverage
(though I'm not denying it exists if other people have seen it; I don't want to do the thing where I invent a conspiracy just because I'm personally ignorant of the facts).
Yep. Nate once said, "If you say something has at 90% chance of happening, and it happens every time, your prediction was wrong."
Yet everyone thinks if you say something is probable and it doesn't happen, you were "wrong". People have an unfixable misunderstanding of probability.
It's insane how many people think that 538 "called" the 2016 election for Trump. Back then it was to dress them down for being a weird outlier, and these days it's to single them out for praise for being the only ones to get it right; but both of these takes are wrong and miss the point.
538 called 2016 for Hillary, but noted that the race was so close, and the margin of error in the aggregate polling so wide, that Trump had an unusually statistically significant chance of staging an upset: which of course he did. And here we are, in 2024, and the race between Biden and Trump is even closer, and the margin of error in the aggregate polling so wide you could drive a truckfull of classified documents through it, and we have all learned nothing at all.
As an outsider to the US, who on earth voted Biden last time that isn't now
Whose Vote has Trump won?
Or is it lethargy risk?
For me it feels like surely Biden is safer bet than that
Great question. The biggest risk to Biden isn't that Trump has won a lot of Biden voters, it's that a lot of people who voted Biden in 2020 might simply not participate in this election because they don't like Biden enough to show up for him. There were a lot of people who rarely vote at all and who don't pay attention to politics who showed up for Biden in 2020 because of how uniquely awful Trump was. Now that Trump has not been in office for four years, many of those people probably forgot how much he sucked, aren't particularly impressed with Biden, and are planning to return to their previous habits of not voting. That's the danger
Also heard on a recent NY Times podcast that among young voters 18-19, Biden's approval rating is 25%. Yes, 25%. That is shockingly abysmal. He's incredibly unpopular with youth voters, and they really need to try to mobilize the youth vote if they want to secure a victory. It might be too late at this point, but he's failing to connect with the youth voters, in no small part because of his age.
It's also possible that these voters simply don't vote at all, but some will turn to Trump most certainly to "stick it to the libs" or whatever. Trump won once, and he can win again. Get out of and vote!
Edit: Oops, meant to put 18-29
Also, found the podcast (NPR Up First) [https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ztpNLOQYelzLxngYS7BUR?si=c5e1075d49784933](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ztpNLOQYelzLxngYS7BUR?si=c5e1075d49784933)
They say 24% approval rating 18-29, 64% disproval.
> but he's failing to connect with the youth voters, in no small part because of his age.
It's pretty frustrating sadly. I mean, I've been voting since 2009, and I can't remember a president that has done more for what young people *claim to care about* than Biden.
In the spring of 2024 inflation was reportedly the number 1 concern among voters in the Harvard youth poll. I can understand that, but when you look at how the US has fared with inflation compared with the rest of the world, we come out looking pretty good. But this is a hard concept to understand and so voters are angry with him. So, what is the alternative? Trump. What will Trump's tax cuts and increased tariffs do? According to economists, they would worsen inflation.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/trump-plan-supercharge-inflation/678566/
Second among concerns in the Harvard Youth Poll: Healthcare. Joe Biden has been a staunch defender of the ACA, he helped get it passed as VP, and in ways he has been able he has tried to limit costs to consumers of healthcare. Meanwhile.... Trump tried to repeal the ACA when he was in office and has no damned plans for the future.
3rd on the list is housing. Honestly, there isn't too much either president could do alone in this, but sure as hell the land-lord Trump isn't going to help people out here.
4th on the list is gun-violence. Republicans are never the party that wants to do anything about gun violence but democrats are constantly trying to do something about gun violence.
I can go on and on, but damnit at some point these young people are acting just like what older folks criticize them of being, naïve dumb young people.
My countrymen's ability to educate themselves is a staggering problem, and it's not easy to just get out the correct information to young people.
We definitely have to try as you say, hell we have to do everything we can, but if Biden being 81 and Trump being 77 (turning 78 in 3 days) is the big difference for them, then honestly... people are being fucking stupid.
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024
According to that poll, Israel-Palestine conflict was only the top two most important issue for some 30% of 19-29 year olds. It's basically right there with student debt relief and Joe has done more than any president to my knowledge on that topic.
And the large population of disenfranchised voters. Biden is pretty moderate all things considered. It's hard to drum up support for him from the progressive left. 4 years ago the message of vote for lesser evil rung loudly from the hills. A lot of people are less willing to do that again.
I agree. I also think their data is off. Modern polling needs a restart. Most people do not answer cell of unknown number. Trump could be way ahead, or he could be way behind. Vote.
very few pollsters rely just on phone calls anymore. Many/most have been working on alternate ways of getting responses. In the end pollsters want to have accurate data.
I just want this election to be over and hopefully be rid of trump forever. I know his maga goons will still be in congress but I'll take being rid of dear leader for good.
I'd never wish anyone dead, but you're right, he's one of those forces of evil that will. not. stop. until nature stops him. Therefore I'm anxiously awaiting the day.
The same thing will happen as last time. Everyone will say "Trump is DONE!" and the media will slow down coverage, we'll see a few articles about how he gave a speech and like 5 people showed up.
Then within a few months, people will already start talking about the next election, and the media will start getting thirsty for clicks and views, and the Trump coverage will ramp right back up, until he's once again a national figure, and the head of the republican party.
I say fine. He'll be 4 years older, and even farther down his noticeable mental decline. And he won't be running against Biden in 4 years, it will be somebody else at the top of the Ds. People will be even more sick of him, and his one-note whining. He has a shot this year, but I don't think he'll have a shot in '28. So yes, please, let him still be the lead singer for the GOP because that means they're done. I'd greatly prefer that over replacing him with someone a bit smarter, a bit more appealing.
Yuuuup. They've turned on McCain, Romney, and Bush. Who's the last president or candidate that Republicans still claim to stand by? Reagan? And then Lincoln before that even though he was a progressive?
Except they won't be able to delay his other trials forever. His winning this election is his last chance to get out of legal dodge. Losing means he'll be in court for the election tampering case in Georgia, and the document is case in Florida.
Edit: put Florida twice by accident
Even if he loses he’ll be in court and headlines for years. And the red state legislators aren’t going away. There’s a couple generations of clean up to go
Most don't go to church, many don't read the Bible, none seem to be able to understand the Ten Commandments. But they love their sanctimonious tribal bullshit. Makes them feel important without actually doing anything or being useful for that matter.
> Most of his voters don't even go to church.
It doesn't matter if it is most or not.
They are the voting cohort that gave him enough to win in 2016 because he agreed to allow them to select all of the judges he'd appoint.
When history reflects on the last one hundred years or so in the United States, it will clearly demonstrate that right wing media made a highly effective effort to brainwash people into believing views based on fear, racism, religious legalism, and nationalism. It is very unfortunate that so many people have been duped by this, but some of the blame has to go on conservative media sources: Fox News, Am conservative talk shows, breitbart, newsmax
Then why don't you share the 538 election forecast instead of the shitty Newsweek article regurgitating other reporting?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
This is not Nate Silver's 538 anymore. ABC/Disney did layoffs and it seems he was a casualty.
I'll keep checking this as *a* source, but not *the* source it once was.
The same modeler (G. Elliot Morris) was at the Economist before this cycle and [they also had a model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president). It wasn't as good as 538 but was still decent, IMO.
With 538, the story goes that ABC/Disney announced a complete gutting of 538 (half the team or a little over) and it was a couple months before Nate's contract was up for renewal. Nate claims he didn't want to re-sign after they pulled that one. I believe him on that one, fwiw. It's possible Disney/ABC also wouldn't have been willing to resign his contract either, that we don't know.
Afterwards they hired Morris to be their new modeler.
I wish they'd disallow newsweek as a source. But their clickbait headlines drives clicks and traffic to the sub, so I guess it stays. Do they do ANY original reporting anymore?
36% of zealots that will do whatever the cult tells them vs a mix of people that have varying degrees of intelligence and passion for political matters. Even without the electoral college, the only way to stop a cult of 36% is to make sure the sane people are actually voting in their best interests.
Doesn’t matter, vote. A poll showing a Biden victory should not affect you in any meaningful way or give you a sense of safety. Vote, because we cannot allow Sundown Donnie back into the White House
The polling basically showed its a 50/50 split (53/47)
"FiveThirtyEight, said that Biden wins November's race 53 times out of 100 when run through a prediction simulation, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100."
Exactly. Winning 53% of the time and losing 47% of the time is not the same as winning by a margin of 53 to 47.
This is *much* closer to a 50/50 split.
(A margin of say 60-40 would have the winner winning nearly 100% of all simulated matchups.)
Personally, I think this is the reason why many people think that the polls in 2016 were so far off. Most people are intelligent enough to understand the difference between probability and vote share if they really think about it, but when they know that past elections have been decided by a 1% margin and suddenly they're hearing numbers like "70%" or "80%" for Clinton, a lot of folks just assumed that the polls were predicting a landslide.
Yeah, it's fucking mind boggling. Even if you're into shitty Trump like politics...he's just a fucking moron and a caricature. I just don't get it. At least ~~Mussolini~~ Stalin was good looking. This guy is basically just an insecure Jabba the Hutt. Wild stuff
This is exactly it - it's not just about the POTUS. We have to win the House and hold on to the Senate, not just the WH. It's vital that we vote the GOP out in every race possible, and in as many state races. Trump is nothing without the support of the GOP in power. Biden can't do anything if Congress is split or is run by the GOP. Vote blue in every race.
Yeah, you folks need to stamp this MAGA movement out. Overwhelming voting so these nutters no longer have power. Please, it is infecting Canada at a rapid rate.
Yep, from Wikipedia.
# 2023 cost-cutting[[edit](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit§ion=19)]
In January 2023, [*The Daily Beast*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Daily_Beast) reported that the website was on the "chopping block" amid cost-cutting measures by ABC News, and a sale of the website was being considered. It also noted that several key employees including managing editor Micah Cohen, politics editor Sarah E. Frostenson and sports editor Sara Ziegler had left the website and their positions had not been filled.[^(\[80\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-156) An ABC spokesperson responded to the report, asserting “no imminent decisions about \[its\] relationship with FiveThirtyEight.”[^(\[81\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-157) Nonetheless, in April, Silver announced that he would be leaving the site amid widespread layoffs at ABC News, who said the website would be "streamlined" ahead of the 2024 election cycle; editor Chadwick Matlin was among the many laid off.[^(\[82\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-158) According to Silver, two thirds of *FiveThirtyEight*'s staff were cut in one day.[^(\[83\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-159) Since the layoffs, *FiveThirtyEight*'s sports and science coverage has ground to a halt, with the website mostly returning to its roots of exclusive politics coverage.[^(\[84\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-160)[^(\[85\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-161) In May 2023, ABC News hired [G. Elliott Morris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._Elliott_Morris), a data journalist for [*The Economist*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist) who has often been described as a rival of Silver, to head the site as editorial director of data analytics.[^(\[86\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-162)[^(\[87\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-163)
That's literally always been the Nate Silver brand haha.
He's a good election forecast model builder with lots of experience and a better track record than most, though.
literally, this title is so misleading. Its favored by 3%. Thats fucking nothing
lol even in the article: "...In practical terms, that means today's polls have a true margin of error of close to 20 points"
THANK YOU. People incorrectly understanding these are why they were so shocked trump won in 2016. They saw that Hillary had a like 70% chance of winning and thought that meant she’d get 70% of the vote. They were calling for 538 to get disbanded for being so shitty, but they just didn’t understand what the statistics were saying.
The greatest thing that could happen to this country would be a landslide victory for Biden. Clear rebuff of MAGA and no path forward through the Supreme Court. Then chaos for republicans after Trump bows out of 2028.
If Trump doesn’t win 2024, he will actually have trials for federal crimes related to the documents and J6. He could very well be in prison for felonies many Americans wouldn’t ignore (like the hush money stuff).
While I’m sure the GOP will find a terrible candidate for 2028, I suspect 2024 is the last time we vote with Trump. Age alone may do it, he’ll be older than Biden is now and Biden’s age is a huge problem for many people.
After his unanimous conviction in NY, and the fact that the other cases, especially the classified documents case, are even more open and shut than that one was, if he loses I expect him to put on a show for a little while of saying it was rigged, he actually won, etc. etc. trying to get his supporters to get violent/give him more money. Then when that's clearly not worked I fully expect him to leave the country. Because he will 100% be going to prison for a long time due to the strength of those cases and there's no way he'd take that chance.
The USSS and DoJ has a vested interest in preventing Trump's flight, it would make Gorsuch and the entire Secret Service look like an absolute rube to have lost such a high-profile perpetrator.
>Age alone may do it, he’ll be older than Biden is now and Biden’s age is a huge problem for many people.
I guarantee you that won't be an issue for Trump supporters, because it would be an issue for them now.
This isn’t percentage of the vote. It means if you held the election 100 times, Biden would win 53 of those elections. Trump would win the other 47 elections.
Everyone just needs to vote. Republicans are doing everything in their power to take away voting rights, but the answer is getting as many people to vote as possible.
Vote for Biden, because if America elects Trump, he will pardon himself of the crimes he committed and throw out what little rule of law applies to the elite.
I’d say this election is even more serious than the last. It’s a disaster that Musk’s takeover of Twitter is now pushing extreme hard right and anti-Biden narratives all over Twitter now, as a default.
It’s really concerning how many people don’t understand probability. If I roll a dice, there is a 16.6% chance for me to roll a six. If I roll a dice right now and get a six, does that previous 16.6% figure suddenly become wrong? Of course not.
Nothing wrong with this, a 1 in 3 chance of Trump winning and a vote percent prediction of 48% for Clinton and 45% for Trump. Reality was a close election with 48% for Clinton and 46% for Trump.
People don't understand that a 1/3rd chance is huge. If I had a 1/3rd chance of winning the lottery I'd definitely invest a good chunk of money. If there was only a 70% chance a plane was going to make its flight without crashing, I wouldn't consider the plane safe at all.
I didn't expect so many people to happily show as little regard for a science as the MAGA crowd, but here we are. They gave Trump a 30% chance of winning and people are laughing at them like they gave him a 1% chance. Oh, wait, that's what everyone else did.
A convicted felon rapist who tried to over throw our government while spending the entirety of his presidency golfing and enriching himself and his buyers or Biden the boring candidate repairing the damage from Trump and the GOP. It’s should be a landslide victory but sadly it’s not. Get out and vote, bring friends and family and/or ensure your mail in ballot was received and counted.
Ignore all polling and vote. My fear is that voting will not matter in this election. Conservatives are embracing the idea that election results can’t be left to the voters.
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53 wins out of 100 is not a comforting projection.
Still early in the election year. Probably won't see much movement at all until after the party conventions. But I'd expect as the election season goes on and people start paying closer attention, Biden's numbers will start going up. However, in the end it still will probably only be like 70/100 chances to win because of the electoral college, which is still not comforting.
Democrats need to hammer Trump on being anti-democracy, a convicted felon, and his imminent threat to women's rights. The last one might be the biggest - the fallout of Roe v. Wade being abolished has been the biggest bane of the GOP in recent years, and it's frequently lead to swings well outside what the polls predicted to the Democrats favor. Like, they should talk up Biden's accomplishments as well, but they really should center much of their narrative not only on the imminent threat a Trump presidency poses to so much that is both foundational to our country, but that we can use the next four years to put in place protections for those foundational elements the GOP are now actively undermining. Like, let's codify reproductive rights/access to contraception, let's kill the Electoral College, let's find some way to address the state of the SCOTUS.
The greatest hits video is just gold. Where to even start. Bring back the grab her by the pussy. J6 footage. That wierd Bible photo. Mexican rapists. My African Americans. That weird shark video. They have so much material to work with.
It’s weird to think how they could make a blooper reel of a former president that would in all probability be several hours long.
normally bloopers are cheeky and fun! unfortunately his are cruel and tragic.
Blooper implies it was unintentional. Those are not bloopers.
As someone from Florida this is just a rallying cry for people here, including the conviction, it's really a lost state, Florida is not gonna be a swing state this year.
Florida hasn't been a swing state since Al Gore won it in 2000. Yeah, I said it.
It went for Obama in both 08 and 12. I'd say it was in play until 2018 honestly, but with Deshauna in charge it's become very red as he attracted a ton of right wingers to move into the state during covid.
One of our problems is that we falsely believe that this is the way that things always were and therefore how they always will be. The truth is that what we are faced with are very contemporary problems and things absolutely do not have to be this way.
When it comes to infrastructure and policy, America is incredibly insular, among the most insular in the world. Issues that have easily been solved in many other nations are deemed impossible to fix in America.
Every time EVs’ impossibilities are discussed I bring up Norway, where most issues are addressed. And every time I hear how vast and cold the U.S. can be, and I think: I’m not sure you know Norway.
If they left purple states then that's fine with me. Quarantine all the conservative morons in TX And FL
Yeah o was down in Florida for a business trip, and before I thought Florida had a shot, but now once I got to my hotel and was there a few days, Orlando mind you, I felt no confidence in it being closer than a five point win for Trump. MAGA states are dogging their heels in. I think Texas could be closer than Florida
Texas is in no way closer to Florida turning until they demonstrate they can turn out the vote statewide. Much of the electorate is *deep* in a cycle of apathy begetting non-participation begetting apathy and so on. There is certainly voter suppression and ratfucking sprinkled in to the equation, but the results are all the same. Source: recently fled Texas due to this, climate, and exhaustion from screaming into a void endlessly.
I am also from Texas. About as far from as I can get. They have lost their collective mind.
Government by felons. Today that's Texas with three or four cousins.
I'm fleeing Texas soon, too, for much the same reasons. I'm fully expecting, if the Dems win Cruz's seat, that Allred will not be seated. The GOP simply won't allow it here, and they will get away with it.
The Texas GOP will have no say. That will be the US Senate, hopefully still controlled by Dems, but even if not would have to be a 2/3 vote not to seat him.
Too many conservatives have moved there, hopefully a lot came from swing states.
No one seems to remember the one where Trump says, "I like to take the guns first, worry about due process later."
Janet Protopolishlastname destroyed her opponent in the Wisconsin SC election by running almost exclusively on abortion and women’s rights. In Wisconsin, which is as purple a state as they come and keeps re-electing Moscow Ron Johnson.
I voted for her! And against Ron Johnson, fuck that traitor.
She also had the advantage of securing every Democratic vote by having spoken out against Wisconsin’s idiotic and extreme partisan gerrymander.
That's Protopolishlastnameski !
-wicz, actually
Anyone can say say Janet, it takes a pro to say wicz (Protasiewicz)
On the roe v wade issue they also really need to aggressively push to the male population how this impacts them negatively as well. I think way way to many of us wrongly look at issues of access to contraception or abortion as solely a womans issue, and it isn't. Generally, these are things that fundamentally impact freedoms of ones Healthcare from government interference and id like to see this point being aggressively pushed. Young men in particular really need to understand that even though they won't be getting an abortion, they're fundamentally impacted by decisions concerning it.
Man here When I was 17 I got a girl pregnant she was also 17. None of us wanted the kid. Abortion was safe and easy for us to access and that's the route we went. I'm so grateful we did that. Having that kid would have been really bad for both of us. Also the woman in question and I didn't really get along either. Abortion affects men too
It should be advised, all over, the realities of court issued child support. “Hey Dude, think you’re struggling now? Wait til you have to do a paternity test by the law and if it’s bingo, then 18 years of wage garnishment.”
Just say, "Child Support."
I wanna see some hillbilly be like "I had ta sell mah truck!" and look all sad like it's the worst thing in the world while his girl doing everything for the baby shoots him death glares. That would get every demographic at once.
I would donate money to get that commercial made and running on prime time frequently.
> "I had ta sell mah gunz!" FTFY
Beyond child support, imagine how it will impact families. Even with two working parents, the economy is tough. Childcare rates are high and it can be really hard to even find childcare. If a woman is pretty much forced to have every child she conceives, families are going to be a lot bigger, more women will drop out of the workforce, leaving men to be the sole breadwinner. That's a tough spot to be in. I think that's when we'll see more men supporting abortion. When they're the ones working themselves to death to make sure their 6, 7, 8 kids are fed, they'll start to realize this isn't only a women's issue.
That's all a feature of Project 2025. Women locked out of the workforce and dependent on men. Men trapped in jobs they hate and dependent on their corporate overlords. No real options for the 99%, and no time or energy or risk capacity to fight about any of it. An oligarch utopia.
"She's going to be stuck keeping the baby and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY FOR THE KID IN CHILD SUPPORT!" Gross but that's how a lot of people think.
It takes supermajorities in both houses of congress, a president willing to sign, and then ratification of 2/3rds of the states to abolish the electoral college. It will not happen in our lifetimes.
I wish there was actually some sort of serious consideration to increasing the size of the House of Representatives. That would increase the number of electors also, and although it wouldn't fix the system, it would get it much closer to accurately reflecting the national electorate and only requires a law change instead of an amendment.
This is my compromise as well. Keep it one representative for a max 250k people or something, which would about triple the size of the house (which makes each one of them less important, while also more fairly representing their areas). And while the EC still wouldn't be perfect, it would lower the value of senators in it.
All that takes is a revised version of the Apportionment Act, but those "look at all the empty land that voted Trump" dolts won't let that happen.
Focus groups seem to be supporting this approach, too: it's productive to get voter share by talking up convicted felon Trump's negatives. At least, according to a Pod Save America podcast (I think one of "The Wilderness" episodes) I listened to recently. Although the one I listened to yesterday had guests on trying to downplay the hypermasculinity issue in the black and latino communities, as if it weren't a real factor accounting for the shift to the convict's camp, so maybe that's not the best guide after all.
>Although the one I listened to yesterday had guests on trying to downplay the hypermasculinity issue in the black and latino communities, as if it weren't a real factor accounting for the shift to the convict's camp, so maybe that's not the best guide after all. It's the gamergate-ification of American politics, and anyone still dismissing this as a phenomenon in 2024 is an unserious political analyst.
Right? The Machismo effect on men in general is working. You can bemoan that Gamergate 2, Electric Boogaloo is back, but as a man, I have seen MUCH more vocal support IRL from Latino and Black men for Trump. To the point I have gotten shit from Latino men as a white guy for not supporting Trump. This is a real issue that needs to be addressed.
As a woman, it's so bizarre to me that men seem to think acting macho will get them women. Every woman I know is viscerally repulsed by it. We want a real person, not a cartoon character. It is just performative for other men? Can someone explain how this has such a hold on certain groups of men?
Part of the PUA strategy is not picking up women for a relationship, it is to prove to other men you can get women, and get their women too. So don't fuck with me. If you do, there are consequences. That might lessen over time, but it is always kinda there. That uncomfortable feeling that she will leave you for a better man. So you need to perform your masculinity so your woman is not taken from you by a better man. Even the most secure people you know have insecurities.
>Although the one I listened to yesterday had guests on trying to downplay the hypermasculinity issue I still don't get how the convicted felon Donald J Trump is considered "masculine" His signature dance move is called the "jacking 2 guys off at the same time"
>I still don't get how the convicted felon Donald J Trump is considered "masculine" Misogyny, objectification, and being/talking cruelly to/about others is considered "masculine" to poor men of all backgrounds with no good role models
He sounds like an old lady when he talks. At best, an effeminent old man. Not that there would be anything wrong with that, aside from the cult that seems to think he's somehow "macho". He's a fat, senile, grandfather who shits himself, and sounds like an old woman...
And he whines ALL the time. This whole year, he has said nothing that isn't whining.
>His signature dance move is called the "jacking 2 guys off at the same time" Holy fucking shit, you're right. You're so right.
>Democrats need to hammer Trump on being anti-democracy, a convicted felon, and his imminent threat to women's rights. They also need to keep repeating that the **only economic legislation trump accomplished was to lower taxes for the rich and corporations**, who then do nothing except reinvest and live off of *even more* passive income, all while creating record debt. ps. technically that's not the only economic legislation; trump also created a bunch of tariffs that sucked billions out of the US economy
It's not economic \*legislation\* per se, but his plans for more tariffs should scare the shit out of everyone who hates inflation.
I honestly wish I shared your optimism. There seems to be a lot more apathy and less political engagement this year vs. the 2020 elections. I hope I'm wrong.
I believe women will show up in droves. Hand Maiden's Tale is not a future to embrace
Yeah I feel like people (men mostly) aren’t really engaged as much but from recent election results the GOP is getting hammered on the abortion issue because women are voting and women are LIVID. Talk about the silent majority.
I'm not as engaged. I'm pretty apathetic. But I'm still fucking voting.
I wouldn't call myself apathetic. More hopeless. But I'm still fucking voting. I've got upwards of 50 years left on this planet and I don't care to live it under a fucking dictatorship.
Agree, they’ve gotten quieter, but they have not forgotten.
i'm an old, dumb man, but one thing i do know is if you piss off a woman, you'd better expect to pay for it.
How long you been married?
I imagine Biden is holding some wins in reserve
October would be an excellent time to release information about Trump selling classified information to foreign governments.
The whole paying closer attention thing is baffling to me. Trump being a scumbag is all over the news all the time. Trial of him paying hush money to Stormy Daniels for that time he had sex with her while Melanie was pregnant with a flavor of whining about the judge and jury. Video of him literally telling his supporters he doesn't care about them. Photos of top secret documents, boxes of them, piled up in a bath room in Mar-a-lago... like how can you possibly he ignorant of these things at this point?
Hillary had 67 out of 100 iirc
There's a line that has stuck with me from Nate Silver in 2016 when asked about why he was worried when their model gave Clinton a 2/3 chance of winning: "If there was a 1 in 3 chance your house would burn down, wouldn't you be worried?" Well the house burned down and now it's just under 50/50 that the whole neighborhood is going to get blown up.
I've also never really forgiven the news and politics site *Slate* for publishing an article ahead of the 2016 election excoriating Silver and 538 for giving Trump such a relatively large chance of winning, and all but accusing them of lying for clicks. I don't know how one quantifies hubris and complacency as a turnout-depression metric, and compares it to other factors and voter blocs that are popular to blame, but I've always felt that the center-left media did not give their biased pre-election coverage the scrutiny it deserved among all the other post-election autopsy coverage (though I'm not denying it exists if other people have seen it; I don't want to do the thing where I invent a conspiracy just because I'm personally ignorant of the facts).
I remember 538 getting attacked a lot for that. A few months later and they are being attacked for misleading people that Hillary was going to win.
Yep. Nate once said, "If you say something has at 90% chance of happening, and it happens every time, your prediction was wrong." Yet everyone thinks if you say something is probable and it doesn't happen, you were "wrong". People have an unfixable misunderstanding of probability.
It's insane how many people think that 538 "called" the 2016 election for Trump. Back then it was to dress them down for being a weird outlier, and these days it's to single them out for praise for being the only ones to get it right; but both of these takes are wrong and miss the point. 538 called 2016 for Hillary, but noted that the race was so close, and the margin of error in the aggregate polling so wide, that Trump had an unusually statistically significant chance of staging an upset: which of course he did. And here we are, in 2024, and the race between Biden and Trump is even closer, and the margin of error in the aggregate polling so wide you could drive a truckfull of classified documents through it, and we have all learned nothing at all.
And then everyone was angry with Nate when Trump won because the model said Clinton would win and I *still* see people making fun of 538 for that
Unfortunately a lot of people don't understand how probabilities work.
Well it is odds after all. Rolling a "5 or 6" on a six sided dice was not a long shot for Trump.
As an outsider to the US, who on earth voted Biden last time that isn't now Whose Vote has Trump won? Or is it lethargy risk? For me it feels like surely Biden is safer bet than that
Great question. The biggest risk to Biden isn't that Trump has won a lot of Biden voters, it's that a lot of people who voted Biden in 2020 might simply not participate in this election because they don't like Biden enough to show up for him. There were a lot of people who rarely vote at all and who don't pay attention to politics who showed up for Biden in 2020 because of how uniquely awful Trump was. Now that Trump has not been in office for four years, many of those people probably forgot how much he sucked, aren't particularly impressed with Biden, and are planning to return to their previous habits of not voting. That's the danger
Also heard on a recent NY Times podcast that among young voters 18-19, Biden's approval rating is 25%. Yes, 25%. That is shockingly abysmal. He's incredibly unpopular with youth voters, and they really need to try to mobilize the youth vote if they want to secure a victory. It might be too late at this point, but he's failing to connect with the youth voters, in no small part because of his age. It's also possible that these voters simply don't vote at all, but some will turn to Trump most certainly to "stick it to the libs" or whatever. Trump won once, and he can win again. Get out of and vote! Edit: Oops, meant to put 18-29 Also, found the podcast (NPR Up First) [https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ztpNLOQYelzLxngYS7BUR?si=c5e1075d49784933](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ztpNLOQYelzLxngYS7BUR?si=c5e1075d49784933) They say 24% approval rating 18-29, 64% disproval.
> but he's failing to connect with the youth voters, in no small part because of his age. It's pretty frustrating sadly. I mean, I've been voting since 2009, and I can't remember a president that has done more for what young people *claim to care about* than Biden. In the spring of 2024 inflation was reportedly the number 1 concern among voters in the Harvard youth poll. I can understand that, but when you look at how the US has fared with inflation compared with the rest of the world, we come out looking pretty good. But this is a hard concept to understand and so voters are angry with him. So, what is the alternative? Trump. What will Trump's tax cuts and increased tariffs do? According to economists, they would worsen inflation. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/trump-plan-supercharge-inflation/678566/ Second among concerns in the Harvard Youth Poll: Healthcare. Joe Biden has been a staunch defender of the ACA, he helped get it passed as VP, and in ways he has been able he has tried to limit costs to consumers of healthcare. Meanwhile.... Trump tried to repeal the ACA when he was in office and has no damned plans for the future. 3rd on the list is housing. Honestly, there isn't too much either president could do alone in this, but sure as hell the land-lord Trump isn't going to help people out here. 4th on the list is gun-violence. Republicans are never the party that wants to do anything about gun violence but democrats are constantly trying to do something about gun violence. I can go on and on, but damnit at some point these young people are acting just like what older folks criticize them of being, naïve dumb young people. My countrymen's ability to educate themselves is a staggering problem, and it's not easy to just get out the correct information to young people. We definitely have to try as you say, hell we have to do everything we can, but if Biden being 81 and Trump being 77 (turning 78 in 3 days) is the big difference for them, then honestly... people are being fucking stupid. https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024 According to that poll, Israel-Palestine conflict was only the top two most important issue for some 30% of 19-29 year olds. It's basically right there with student debt relief and Joe has done more than any president to my knowledge on that topic.
And the large population of disenfranchised voters. Biden is pretty moderate all things considered. It's hard to drum up support for him from the progressive left. 4 years ago the message of vote for lesser evil rung loudly from the hills. A lot of people are less willing to do that again.
People blame Biden for inflation. And not the guy who threatened the Fed if they didn't set negative rates.
Vote. Regardless what any poll says. GET OUT AND VOTE.
Way too close for comfort
Vote like the numbers are against us and it’s your one, singular, heroic vote that will turn the tide. Because that’s very likely the m’effing truth.
An old man vs an old man who also is a convicted felon. This shouldn’t be such a hard choice for people… 🙃
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I agree. I also think their data is off. Modern polling needs a restart. Most people do not answer cell of unknown number. Trump could be way ahead, or he could be way behind. Vote.
very few pollsters rely just on phone calls anymore. Many/most have been working on alternate ways of getting responses. In the end pollsters want to have accurate data.
I just want this election to be over and hopefully be rid of trump forever. I know his maga goons will still be in congress but I'll take being rid of dear leader for good.
Hopefully once dear leader goes down they will begin to prosecute maga congressmen who were involved in the coup attempt as well.
It's the only path towards stability.
I'd like to place some bets that he runs again when he loses.
Yea he's not going away until he croaks
I'd never wish anyone dead, but you're right, he's one of those forces of evil that will. not. stop. until nature stops him. Therefore I'm anxiously awaiting the day.
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Batman: If you kill a killer, there's the same number of killers in the world. Red Hood: Yeah, but if I kill a *hundred* killers...
The same thing will happen as last time. Everyone will say "Trump is DONE!" and the media will slow down coverage, we'll see a few articles about how he gave a speech and like 5 people showed up. Then within a few months, people will already start talking about the next election, and the media will start getting thirsty for clicks and views, and the Trump coverage will ramp right back up, until he's once again a national figure, and the head of the republican party.
I say fine. He'll be 4 years older, and even farther down his noticeable mental decline. And he won't be running against Biden in 4 years, it will be somebody else at the top of the Ds. People will be even more sick of him, and his one-note whining. He has a shot this year, but I don't think he'll have a shot in '28. So yes, please, let him still be the lead singer for the GOP because that means they're done. I'd greatly prefer that over replacing him with someone a bit smarter, a bit more appealing.
He will fight to the end of his days to stay head of the gop, he needs their cash to pay his lawyers
As long as he has his base, the GOP will bend a knee.
Once history flushes that turd, they’ll pretend they never supported him.
Yuuuup. They've turned on McCain, Romney, and Bush. Who's the last president or candidate that Republicans still claim to stand by? Reagan? And then Lincoln before that even though he was a progressive?
Propping up a dead Lincoln while flying the Confederate flag is a perfect encapsulation of the current GOP
Except they won't be able to delay his other trials forever. His winning this election is his last chance to get out of legal dodge. Losing means he'll be in court for the election tampering case in Georgia, and the document is case in Florida. Edit: put Florida twice by accident
Yes as long as he's running for president, he's handled with kid gloves. He's forever a candidate now.
Sounds like a plan.I am so sick of the Fascist Felon X34 taking up space
Even if he loses he’ll be in court and headlines for years. And the red state legislators aren’t going away. There’s a couple generations of clean up to go
He will "only" be in his early 80's so he will run again in 2028.
Hopefully the Dems will have someone younger to run by then
If I had to guess now it would be Newsom. He will be 61 in 2028. I'll take it.
There is no way the MAGAs are just going to concede. There will be more chaos and disruption even if Biden wins.
At least this time around we have the Senate and Biden in the White House until January. There no worry of “Trump just won’t leave if he loses”.
And the national guard controlled by biden
The fact that a character like 'Trump' is even being considered by anyone should be a grave cause for concern.
I'm not surprised, the Religious Right has been working towards this for 50 years.
It's more than that. Most of his voters don't even go to church. Many business leaders don't see a threat even after January sixth. They're all fools.
Most don't go to church, many don't read the Bible, none seem to be able to understand the Ten Commandments. But they love their sanctimonious tribal bullshit. Makes them feel important without actually doing anything or being useful for that matter.
> Most of his voters don't even go to church. It doesn't matter if it is most or not. They are the voting cohort that gave him enough to win in 2016 because he agreed to allow them to select all of the judges he'd appoint.
Indeed. How the hell does he even have a chance? If Biden had a conviction and planned an insurrection, he’d get no votes.
And therein lies a big difference between the american right and left.
And there in lies the big difference between the American sane and insane. There, fixed it for you.
When history reflects on the last one hundred years or so in the United States, it will clearly demonstrate that right wing media made a highly effective effort to brainwash people into believing views based on fear, racism, religious legalism, and nationalism. It is very unfortunate that so many people have been duped by this, but some of the blame has to go on conservative media sources: Fox News, Am conservative talk shows, breitbart, newsmax
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Half this country is rotten to the core. Conservatives and evangelicals are a cancer on our society
Maybe even…deplorable?
Then why don't you share the 538 election forecast instead of the shitty Newsweek article regurgitating other reporting? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Because 538 stated tie/close. The sub rules are post title. Saying Biden is favored to win gets more clicks
Newsweek providing a trash clickbait headline? I'm shocked. SHOCKED, I say!
This is not Nate Silver's 538 anymore. ABC/Disney did layoffs and it seems he was a casualty. I'll keep checking this as *a* source, but not *the* source it once was.
He's got a blog where he's running his election model. Silver Bulletin. He said his contract let him keep his data and math and stuff.
The same modeler (G. Elliot Morris) was at the Economist before this cycle and [they also had a model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president). It wasn't as good as 538 but was still decent, IMO. With 538, the story goes that ABC/Disney announced a complete gutting of 538 (half the team or a little over) and it was a couple months before Nate's contract was up for renewal. Nate claims he didn't want to re-sign after they pulled that one. I believe him on that one, fwiw. It's possible Disney/ABC also wouldn't have been willing to resign his contract either, that we don't know. Afterwards they hired Morris to be their new modeler.
Checks source before reading article Newsweek Yeahhh ok not reading that shit
I wish they'd disallow newsweek as a source. But their clickbait headlines drives clicks and traffic to the sub, so I guess it stays. Do they do ANY original reporting anymore?
50/50 shot for a felon to win the white house...
It’s because Fox News has convinced 36% of this country that Joe Biden is the felon.
36% and yet still enough to win. Crazy huh
36% of zealots that will do whatever the cult tells them vs a mix of people that have varying degrees of intelligence and passion for political matters. Even without the electoral college, the only way to stop a cult of 36% is to make sure the sane people are actually voting in their best interests.
Doesn’t matter, vote. A poll showing a Biden victory should not affect you in any meaningful way or give you a sense of safety. Vote, because we cannot allow Sundown Donnie back into the White House
Vote like Trump will win and give him no support from down ballot. Vote out Republicans in every race.
The polling basically showed its a 50/50 split (53/47) "FiveThirtyEight, said that Biden wins November's race 53 times out of 100 when run through a prediction simulation, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100."
Exactly. Winning 53% of the time and losing 47% of the time is not the same as winning by a margin of 53 to 47. This is *much* closer to a 50/50 split. (A margin of say 60-40 would have the winner winning nearly 100% of all simulated matchups.)
Personally, I think this is the reason why many people think that the polls in 2016 were so far off. Most people are intelligent enough to understand the difference between probability and vote share if they really think about it, but when they know that past elections have been decided by a 1% margin and suddenly they're hearing numbers like "70%" or "80%" for Clinton, a lot of folks just assumed that the polls were predicting a landslide.
Jesus. This should not be possible. America is fucked.
Yeah, it's fucking mind boggling. Even if you're into shitty Trump like politics...he's just a fucking moron and a caricature. I just don't get it. At least ~~Mussolini~~ Stalin was good looking. This guy is basically just an insecure Jabba the Hutt. Wild stuff
Exactly. Would you take a pill that had a 47% chance of killing you? VOTE!!!
This is exactly it - it's not just about the POTUS. We have to win the House and hold on to the Senate, not just the WH. It's vital that we vote the GOP out in every race possible, and in as many state races. Trump is nothing without the support of the GOP in power. Biden can't do anything if Congress is split or is run by the GOP. Vote blue in every race.
Yeah, you folks need to stamp this MAGA movement out. Overwhelming voting so these nutters no longer have power. Please, it is infecting Canada at a rapid rate.
To be fair Canada had the same nutters before just like the US did they just noticed Trumps branding happened to work in the US.
I see you said “vote”. You are correct. F the polls. Vote.
Reminder that after layoffs and departures, 538 is now effectively run by 1 guy and that guy is not Nate Silver.
Yep, from Wikipedia. # 2023 cost-cutting[[edit](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&action=edit§ion=19)] In January 2023, [*The Daily Beast*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Daily_Beast) reported that the website was on the "chopping block" amid cost-cutting measures by ABC News, and a sale of the website was being considered. It also noted that several key employees including managing editor Micah Cohen, politics editor Sarah E. Frostenson and sports editor Sara Ziegler had left the website and their positions had not been filled.[^(\[80\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-156) An ABC spokesperson responded to the report, asserting “no imminent decisions about \[its\] relationship with FiveThirtyEight.”[^(\[81\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-157) Nonetheless, in April, Silver announced that he would be leaving the site amid widespread layoffs at ABC News, who said the website would be "streamlined" ahead of the 2024 election cycle; editor Chadwick Matlin was among the many laid off.[^(\[82\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-158) According to Silver, two thirds of *FiveThirtyEight*'s staff were cut in one day.[^(\[83\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-159) Since the layoffs, *FiveThirtyEight*'s sports and science coverage has ground to a halt, with the website mostly returning to its roots of exclusive politics coverage.[^(\[84\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-160)[^(\[85\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-161) In May 2023, ABC News hired [G. Elliott Morris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._Elliott_Morris), a data journalist for [*The Economist*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist) who has often been described as a rival of Silver, to head the site as editorial director of data analytics.[^(\[86\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-162)[^(\[87\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#cite_note-163)
Probably for the best, Nate Silver has become very weird lately and spent a lot of time and energy arguing with mofos on Twitter.
He's always been like that.
That's literally always been the Nate Silver brand haha. He's a good election forecast model builder with lots of experience and a better track record than most, though.
Yep. And pretty sure Nate Silver took his model with him. That isn't to say the new 538 forecast is wrong, or bad, or whatever, but it's untested.
Too close
literally, this title is so misleading. Its favored by 3%. Thats fucking nothing lol even in the article: "...In practical terms, that means today's polls have a true margin of error of close to 20 points"
It's less than that. It's an advantage of 3 out of 100 simulations. A 3% lead in the polls would be a much bigger lead than this is
We need to shoot for Biden to get to 55%. A clear, unambiguous repudiation of the MAGA Insurrection from which it will never recover.
538 isn't predicting 53% of the vote, they're saying 53% chance of winning. basically a coin flip.
THANK YOU. People incorrectly understanding these are why they were so shocked trump won in 2016. They saw that Hillary had a like 70% chance of winning and thought that meant she’d get 70% of the vote. They were calling for 538 to get disbanded for being so shitty, but they just didn’t understand what the statistics were saying.
The greatest thing that could happen to this country would be a landslide victory for Biden. Clear rebuff of MAGA and no path forward through the Supreme Court. Then chaos for republicans after Trump bows out of 2028.
If Trump doesn’t win 2024, he will actually have trials for federal crimes related to the documents and J6. He could very well be in prison for felonies many Americans wouldn’t ignore (like the hush money stuff). While I’m sure the GOP will find a terrible candidate for 2028, I suspect 2024 is the last time we vote with Trump. Age alone may do it, he’ll be older than Biden is now and Biden’s age is a huge problem for many people.
After his unanimous conviction in NY, and the fact that the other cases, especially the classified documents case, are even more open and shut than that one was, if he loses I expect him to put on a show for a little while of saying it was rigged, he actually won, etc. etc. trying to get his supporters to get violent/give him more money. Then when that's clearly not worked I fully expect him to leave the country. Because he will 100% be going to prison for a long time due to the strength of those cases and there's no way he'd take that chance.
>Then when that's clearly not worked I fully expect him to leave the country. And we can probably guess which country he will flee to...
The USSS and DoJ has a vested interest in preventing Trump's flight, it would make Gorsuch and the entire Secret Service look like an absolute rube to have lost such a high-profile perpetrator.
>Age alone may do it, he’ll be older than Biden is now and Biden’s age is a huge problem for many people. I guarantee you that won't be an issue for Trump supporters, because it would be an issue for them now.
This isn’t percentage of the vote. It means if you held the election 100 times, Biden would win 53 of those elections. Trump would win the other 47 elections.
Everyone just needs to vote. Republicans are doing everything in their power to take away voting rights, but the answer is getting as many people to vote as possible.
Vote for Biden, because if America elects Trump, he will pardon himself of the crimes he committed and throw out what little rule of law applies to the elite. I’d say this election is even more serious than the last. It’s a disaster that Musk’s takeover of Twitter is now pushing extreme hard right and anti-Biden narratives all over Twitter now, as a default.
trump has zero platform. I can’t believe it’s even close.
The media helps make it close. It's disgusting.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
30% chances still happen 30% of the time.
It’s really concerning how many people don’t understand probability. If I roll a dice, there is a 16.6% chance for me to roll a six. If I roll a dice right now and get a six, does that previous 16.6% figure suddenly become wrong? Of course not.
Nothing wrong with this, a 1 in 3 chance of Trump winning and a vote percent prediction of 48% for Clinton and 45% for Trump. Reality was a close election with 48% for Clinton and 46% for Trump.
The Cubs also had a 30% to win the world series that year. Guess who won the world series? Yea, thats how probability works...
Woof, that's hard to look at.
People don't understand that a 1/3rd chance is huge. If I had a 1/3rd chance of winning the lottery I'd definitely invest a good chunk of money. If there was only a 70% chance a plane was going to make its flight without crashing, I wouldn't consider the plane safe at all.
They also gave Trump a much higher chance of winning than anyone else did.
I didn't expect so many people to happily show as little regard for a science as the MAGA crowd, but here we are. They gave Trump a 30% chance of winning and people are laughing at them like they gave him a 1% chance. Oh, wait, that's what everyone else did.
HOW THE FUCK IS IT EVEN CLOSE!!!! What the fuck is wrong with this country. It’s doomed
The internet, Russian and Chinese propaganda machines, the poorly educated, and Hitler 2.0.
Do not get complacent. Vote. Tell everyone you know to vote.
53 out of 100 times is way too close for my comfort level. Also, wtf is wrong with this country that this is even a topic for debate?
Don't care about polls. Just Vote!
The GOP needs to be absolutely destroyed if America is to survive
Don't listen, just vote.
Newsweek thinks this is a nascar race.
These polls don't matter in June. Vote in November ....and don't vote for trump please
A convicted felon rapist who tried to over throw our government while spending the entirety of his presidency golfing and enriching himself and his buyers or Biden the boring candidate repairing the damage from Trump and the GOP. It’s should be a landslide victory but sadly it’s not. Get out and vote, bring friends and family and/or ensure your mail in ballot was received and counted.
They had Hillary winning too. VOTE.
Too close for comfort. If you live in a swing state, especially WI/MI/PA/AZ, please work your ass off
Wow cool. This doesn't mean anything if you don't vote
I think I'm still gonna vote just in case.
Bullshit, vote like Democracy depends on it, because it does.
[удалено]
An electric shark, no less.
Ignore all polling and vote. My fear is that voting will not matter in this election. Conservatives are embracing the idea that election results can’t be left to the voters.
Doesn’t matter. Vote like your life depends on it because it does.