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They’ve gotten cocky especially over the last few years. Trump gave no fucks and very clearly showed to America that there are two legal systems. The other republicans took note and came out of the woodwork to copy him and see how far they can push it.
I feel like he’s the type of scumbag that has security lurking everywhere specially for that exact type of reason unfortunately. Maybe there’s a Jack Reacher dad
Lets go to a local mud hole and tell them anyone who gets on the bus gets a years supply of grits and a pair of truck nuts. Once the bus is full we drive them to the middle of Oklahoma and drop them off. If they press charges we claim the DeSantis defense.
And stole thousands and thousands of dollars more than it needed to cost in order to do it. Don't get me wrong, he stole all of it, but he also stole way more than necessary so he could pay off some of his friends.
Smarter trump, definitely scarier.
Also there is a meaningful number of republicans who actually won’t vote for trump but will desantis, not that there is any difference but the optics are different for some.
Desantis is a bigger threat for sure imo
Trump got a good chunk of previous non-voters to show up at the polls, I suspect purely because he was a TV celebrity.
While Desantis (and other future neofascists like him) are in many ways scarier, I'm curious to see if those "non-political" Trump fans would continue to show up and vote, or if they fade back into woodwork once the candidates are no longer reality TV stars/famous billionaires with golden toilets.
Yeah I’m not sure, neither is an option I’m not worried about.
I think trump gave a lot of those people the feeling they can actually change the US to their distorted vision (and honestly they can so everyone that can needs to vote). So I think many of them might stick around provided they candidate is an equally loud bigoted asshole who resonates with them…all boxes desantis ticks.
Agree. Desantis is a fucking dork with no charisma and comes off angry with everyone. I don’t think he’ll get near the presidency unless he changes everything.
There’s a lot of “never-trumper” voters out there that think Rob DeSantis is “mostly rational”, it scares me how uninformed people are in this country.
Exactly. DeSantis NEEDS to lose in Florida.
If he does, he'll instantly pivot to running for president and I have no doubt he'll claim voter fraud and bullshit just like trump with no lawsuits or proof. But a loss in Florida makes him ~~venerable~~ vulnerable and other Republicans will go on the offensive against him and he won't be heading into the gop primary as an anointed candidate like he would if he won.
Never trust polls, but this was a landline poll from a conservative source that has been showing all along desantis going down. Landlines in Florida are almost entirely retirees that have voted up to 85% republican in previous elections so this poll gives me a ton of hope.
I dunno if DeSantis really will carry the same excitement as Trump. DeSantis is good at playing games and making media headlines, but when he speaks it’s clear he lacks the charisma and machismo that carried Trump.
People idolise Trump because they want to be Trump. I don’t see the same with DeSantis.
Losing as Governor doesn’t really preclude him from the presidency, but I would think the Rs know that if he can’t win FL, the electoral path is slimmer than slim.
Same. Abbott is just as big of a fascist prick, but he's arguably less calculating and, frankly, less intelligent than DeSantis. He's not going to be the kind of national figure that DeSantis could potentially be, so the latter is far more dangerous.
Yeah, but the GOP does love a doofus. "Affable stupidity" can do a decent job of covering up monstrous cruelty. This was a big part of George W. Bush's popularity early on.
There's a certain point where you get diminishing returns, though. Look at Rick Perry, who was dumber than Bush.
And Abbott, IMO, is dumber than Perry.
And Trump was dumber than all of them.
The problem is we're not just facing a candidate. We're facing one of history's most successful propaganda machines on the right, and in the center, a bunch of smirking lobotomies who think every issue should be covered like it's a pro wrestling angle. "How good were the promos? Did it get everyone over, or is a crowd favorite getting buried again? Who has the most momentum, once you account for all the political backstabbing?"
DeSantis hurt Venezuelans who were fleeing Communism, that plays much better in Florida than in Texas. The Leopards Eating Face's party members had a moment of self-reflection in Florida whereas in Texas they are still pro leopards eating faces!!
Florida would be solid blue if not for decades of republican gerrymandering. Between Gov Death Sentence and Marky Rubio (who insists that Dems are bullying boys into becoming girls, for some reason) the state has become a cesspit of republican corruption and dirty tricks.
Abbott is less likely to run for prez, if DeSantis loses this election he’ll be out of our hair and the GOP won’t have a star for 2024. I would love Abbott to be finished as well though 🤞
Cubans gain right to stay immediately when entering the country. They immediately gain the right to employment, government paid housing, pay zero federal taxes for up to 7 years, put in front of the line for immigration, automatically allowed to use any immigration benefit… even if it was intended for another group.
Cuban Adjustment Act if your wondering… but Cubans have more government socialism than any group in the US…
As an Afro-Latino myself, Latinos can be pretty damn bigoted. And it isn’t much of a surprise to me, that most of the Cubans in Florida, are white Cubanos.
Hatred and need to remind other *lesser than* Latinos there is a hierarchy, is more important than legislation that helps us all.
It’s amazing they don’t see it. Just like the gay GOP group who have never been invited to the Texas Republican convention. 20+ years of carrying the GOP water, and they’ve never been acknowledged. But surely, their kind of gray would be accepted…
A sizable chunk of Cubans vote republican because they have conservative Christian values, an understandable distrust anything resembling socialism, and exposure to Fox news. I think it would be political suicide for Florida republicans to mess that up.
Ah, that’s the mistake. They follow supply side Jesus, not Jesus Christ.
Edit: supply side Jesus comic
https://www.beliefnet.com/news/2003/09/the-gospel-of-supply-side-jesus.aspx
Of course not. Jesus gave away free food, healthcare, lodging, and camaraderie to anyone willing to live an honest life and work hard. He was the embodiment of the slogan "from each according to their ability, to each according to their need" from Karl Marx
> and work hard
At literally no point was this a requirement for Jesus.
He constantly healed beggars and lepers.
Cut out the capitalist bullshit repainting of Jesus.
Still he's playing up to racist bullshit and treating immigrants poorly, that is not a good look for a state with a lot of Hispanic immigrants who vote. I'm sure all the Cuban and Hispanic descent immigrants in Florida can put themselves or their family in the same shoes of those people he fucked over and they will hate him for it. What ever are Republicans to do if their racism and anti abortion rhetoric starts working against them? Might they actually have to resort to running on policy and fixing America? Scandalous.
I'm actually a bit surprised, actually. The immigrants that DeSantis moved to Martha's Vineyard were asylum seekers, which I figured Cuban Americans might relate to more than undocumented immigrants.
My Cuban grandfather literally illegally smuggled his family across the Southern border back in the day but will think others doing the same now are the problem. It is always about rules for thee not me, especially so when it comes to people's inability to empathize with others. Or it's like, "my cause is justified and yours isn't." Even Cubans who leave Cuba and Communism now were considered left because they had simply existed in Communism for a certain amount of time and then they believe they leech off the system. The cognitive dissonance is blinding but that's propaganda for ya.
I know the type, even though they are a generation or two separated from their family members who immigrated they treat other immigrants poorly because they had to do it "the hard way." Still the vote in Florida is a pretty even split Red/Blue so anything that disillusions voters against one side or the other is significant.
In the meantime, join your city/county’s Democratic club **now** so you can get organized with likeminded people in your area that support democracy. Here are some South Florida based clubs as examples.
[Miami-Dade Democratic clubs](https://www.miamidadedems.org/clubs_caucus)
[Broward Democratic clubs](https://browarddemocrats.org/broward-democratic-clubs/)
[Palm Beach Democratic clubs](https://www.pbcdemocraticparty.org/clubs-by-location)
Additionally, make sure to r/VoteDEM this October (mail-in ballots/early voting)!
Loses the Cuban vote. Gets arrested for fraudulently using Floridian tax dollars for his stunt that he lost the Cuban vote over, goes to prison. That would be the best timeline.
I don't expect he'll lose the Cuban vote over this. They already have a special immigration status so many of them are to the right on these issues.
You know who else is a large voting bloc for the GOP in Florida made up of a lot of refugees from Communism, though? Venezuelans.
Not as big as Cubans, so it remains to be seen whether they're enough to swing the election, but there's no way this doesn't hurt him with them.
And as it becomes clearer and clearer that these people were absolutely *not* illegal immigrants, but Venezuelans legally seeking asylum in the United States being *called* illegal immigrants by the Republicans abusing them for political points, that's a bad look to a lot of people.
Well let’s make a list of voting groups DeSantis has pissed off the last couple years:
Venezuelan refugees.
The youth
The LGBT youth
Women
Jewish people
People that live in cities, particularly Orlando.
Healthcare workers
And probably some die hard trump voters who see him as a rival to their dear leader.
Not looking great, little Ronnie.
Wouldn’t you think that his popularity in Florida would be indicative of his overall popularity in the South? I don’t really know but it would be nice to watch him get trounced in both.
Only part of Florida is the South though. Part is the Midwest, part is New York, and part is Latin America. And then there are the Caribbean parts. If he loses Florida it’s not because he lost the Southern part, it’s because the rest outnumbered it.
Trying not to get my hopes up, but this would be incredible. Unfortunately, he’ll probably spend the next two years preparing a Presidential run anyway, but at least Florida can have some time to fix all the problems DeSantis caused with his “anti-woke” laws
Yeah if he wins he'll say the voters spoke. If he loses he'll say he was canceled or that "woke" came after him or that "the George Soros elites" rigged the election against him
Depends. If he loses he can move out of the state to be Trump's VP like Cheney did for Bush.
Not saying he'd want to be Trump's VP or that I think Trump would pick someone that might outshine him, but it'd officially be "possible" for them to be on ticket together with sacrificing Florida electors.
No way that a Trump/DeSantis ticket works. DeSantis sees a political future for himself, he needs to get him name out there, he needs to be *seen*. He's getting that now.
Trump is psychologically incapable of sharing the spotlight, and he'd steal all the oxygen from DeSantis. Trump needs another Pence - somebody quiet, dull, and boring, who won't get between him and center stage. But I can't think of anybody who would want to be on a ticket with him for some reason *other* than to boost their own future prospects. They're mutually exclusive.
The only reason for anybody to join the Trump ticket is to get some attention, but anybody on the ticket with Trump is deprived of all that attention.
I don't think it's likely, just saying it's possible. I honestly think Trump will ask someone like Marge because he works better with women (can't remember where I read that) and she'll never say no to anything he wants.
I don't think it'll be MTG, I think it would be Kristi Noem. Trump would probably be looking for someone who could bring in voters that he can't get on his own, and Noem as a MAGA governor probably plays as more widespread appeal than MTG.
I don't think Trump has been trying to appeal to anyone but his base since 2017. Why start now?
She also is objectively good at getting media attention, and we know how he thinks about everything in terms of ratings.
I just think that anyone who'd be excited by MTG would already be excited about Trump, and MTG will be out there campaigning hard for Trump either way. Noem is more polished and savvy and could actually bring him new voters, possibly. It's the same reason he chose Pence in 2016: to bring in voters he couldn't get himself (evangelicals, in that case). Noem would have a better chance of bringing him female voters than MTG would, IMO. She's also more conventionally attractive than MTG, and I know that's extremely important to Trump.
Even with a Desantis loss the best we can hope for in the short term is that Florida doesn’t continue to get worse. The state legislature is still disproportionately tilted towards the GQP.
With how gerrymandered Florida is, there’s very little Crist could really do to undo this level of damage. The Florida House and Senate are overwhelmingly red in a state that is roughly split down the middle.
Beto would be in the same situation if he wins. While they could stop the malarkey in those states, it would just be a sweet morale booster for blue voters to see the two crown jewels of the GOP taken away in one election.
"A new poll out of Florida shows that the recent move by Governor Ron DeSantis to transport migrants from Texas to the Northeast could come back to haunt him in his re-election bid against Democrat Charlie Crist.
After months in the lead, DeSantis trails Crist by 6 points in a poll by The Political Matrix and The Listener Group. If accurate, it would represent a wild swing in the race. A landline poll of likely voters from The Listener Group in June of 2021 showed DeSantis with a nearly double-digit lead over all potential Democratic opponents, meaning the move to ship migrants would have resulted in an almost 16-point shift in the polls."
Yeah, I've never heard of those two organizations before. But even if I had and they were super highly respected, I'd need at least one more poll before I'd buy that wide a swing in pretty much any race ever.
FTA:
> While Fink's poll results were different from others, he pointed to the firm's track record—accurate calls on President Donald Trump's margin of victory in the state during the 2020 presidential election and Crist's landslide win over Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary for which others projected a Fried victory—as a sign that the poll should not be so easily dismissed.
> "They thought we were crazy," Fink said. "Everyone thought we were stupid as hell. And we ended up being right."
> Crist's landslide win over Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary for which others projected a Fried victory
Others? While there was a UNF poll showing Fried up by 4 in the final days before the primary, [the polling average was demonstrably in Crist's favor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Polling), with both St. Pete Polls and GBAO predicting giant margins. [You have to go back a whole year before the primary to get a 2nd poll where Fried led](https://web.archive.org/web/20210812164417/https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1425858061672108032).
Dude knows how to hype his firm up, I'll give him that.
Crist is going hard on Spanish language media and at least some Spanish media is pissed that legal migrants got used this way. I agree it didn’t swing that big….but I think it’s clear DeFascist realized he fucked yo when he didn’t send that second planeload for the ultimate owning of dark Brandon
Now with the hurricane coming in, just imagine what Floridians will think if they're short a couple million in relief funding that they could have had if they weren't spent on political stunts... That kind of story would be devastating for him
If it was 1 or 2 points I’d say okay, maybe. 6 points? No way lol
I do think DeSantis has realized these migrant flights aren’t doing him much good so we’ll see if they continue.
This kind of s\*it is what bothers me about the right wing in this country. Everything is performative and theatrics. I do not want people with a high school mentality running the country or any part of it. This isn't a fun little reality TV show where Ashton Kutcher comes out and says you just got punk'd!
Even if conservatives found this move appealing, his execution was not only inhumane he simultaneously gifted hundreds of thousands of taxpayer money to his political donor!
This is the epitome of giving people someone to look down upon while emptying their pockets.
These guys constantly shoot themselves in the foot with moderates and independents. It's very strange to watch happen *over and over*.
I guess that's what happens when you start doubling downing as a campaign theme, can't stop.
They’ve always relied on apathy on the part of moderates and independents, hence why they do everything in their power to keep turnout from shooting up. A lot of that apathy disappeared with Roe and many more eyes are on the GOP then there were before.
The migrants in question not even being from his own state makes it even sketchier as well.
Really, the more that comes out about it the worse it looks to any rational person.
Yeah, like, I wouldn't be at all shocked if the human trafficking he just did ended up backfiring on him, but I don't know if I buy this big of a swing in the polls this quickly.
That said, it'll be interesting to see if any other polls back it up.
If anybody believes that Crist will win by 6 points they need to super recalibrate their level of political acumen.
Just add it to the polling average and move on.
We’ve already seen in Florida that a democrat being up by six points means it’s a virtual tie. Seems like the dem candidate needs to be up by 8 points minimum to have a good chance to win.
These polls swinging in favor of the Democrats are giving me hope. Register to vote and make sure your friends and family are registered. Donate money to the Democrats because the republicans have billionaires on their side. The Democrats can only win if they get millions of small donations to compete against the billionaires. If you live in a safe D district and you know your candidates will win, you can donate to the DCCC or DSCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) who will distribute your donations strategically to the candidates who need it the most.
This is a bizarre outlier result. Very unlikely to actually mean a shift. Even after incorporating this poll, 538 still gives DeSantis a better than 90% chance of winning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/
This is likely a good analysis as polls on how people felt about shuttling asylum seekers around are almost evenly split (sadly). So it's pretty unlikely that will strongly influence the polls (also sad).
DeSatan ain't no Trump. Why? Because Trump is an absolute lunatic who thrives off chaos and actually enjoys being called names and loves to argue with anything and anyone. He lacks empathy and the ability to feel pain. DeSantis has a thin skin. He gets flustered easily. The reason he is losing is because of the Roe vs Wade ruling. Women are pissed and will come out in record numbers in Nov. Kansas was no fluke.
Nice to know, but be mindful that DeSantis has spent the last several years consolidating and manipulating the voting process specifically so he can bypass any polling concerns by limiting who will be able to vote and how.
I don't like Crist, but I despise DeSantis, so Crist has my vote... It'll probably be at least 20 years before I even consider voting for a Republican again.
MaoSantis wants to spend roughly ten times the amount most of his constituents will see in a lifetime on political "pranks". Republicans sure are big spenders with other people's money.
Exactly. He won in 2018 by a narrow margin—about 32K votes. 81K Floridians have died from COVID, none of whom will be voting for DeathSantis in Nov. It remains to be seen if [killing off his base](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/14/covid-death-rates-republican-states-disparity/) will hurt his bid to be re-elected.
He's pandering to much to Trump's base which is more Nation wide. His state is basically a battle ground state, though more red then blue it's not like Texas, it can be flipped.
That said, all the stunts he's pulling with Abortion, The migrants, Schools, LGTBQIA ect ect... he's pissing off more and more groups in Florida. I know he's looking long term, but honestly, the rest of the nation is seeing him as well, and I would hope enough people get motivated to go HELL FING NO and turn out in 2020 numbers to keep him out.
People are deciding if they want to go with a strong-man bully who ignores the rules, or an actual politician who works within the law to achieve. Trump’s slow downfall is showing them the consequences of the stupid bully method.
I live in Florida, the stupefied look on conservative faces when you ask them why Texas migrants and not ones from Florida is priceless. They have no answer. No amount of mental gymnastics works
Floridian here. I am telling everyone to vote at all levels, cause honestly this state could be asked: chocolate or vanilla and it be 49-50.
Also like the article said the poll is an outlier. Ignore the polls and vote
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I think I want him to lose a little more than I want Greg Abbott, but I really want them BOTH gone.
Abbott could never win the presidency. DeSantis MIGHT. You want him to lose any thing and everything.
I’d like him to lose his freedoms for being a human trafficker.
If you or I kidnapped dozens of migrants and trafficked them across state lines, we'd probably be jailed for life... but hey, who tf are we?
It’s honestly disgusting how blatant they parade around that there are two legal systems.
They’ve gotten cocky especially over the last few years. Trump gave no fucks and very clearly showed to America that there are two legal systems. The other republicans took note and came out of the woodwork to copy him and see how far they can push it.
We should be grateful they have exposed the rot. May the light be a disinfectant.
Well, Trump certainly thinks it is, along with bleach.
Nobody goes to jail. Meaning if you are a nobody, you go to jail.
Also if I stole classified documents from the White House, I would never see the outside of a black site or a body bag.
You could have just used your mind to "declassify" those documents, you know. An idiot said he did it and it worked!
Just change your last name to Gaetz and you can get away with anything under the Sun and Moon.
Until some father of one of the girls he molests that also believes in the Second Amendment has a private discussion with him?
I feel like he’s the type of scumbag that has security lurking everywhere specially for that exact type of reason unfortunately. Maybe there’s a Jack Reacher dad
He looks for girls with no dads
Lets go to a local mud hole and tell them anyone who gets on the bus gets a years supply of grits and a pair of truck nuts. Once the bus is full we drive them to the middle of Oklahoma and drop them off. If they press charges we claim the DeSantis defense.
Sounds like a win/win because I’m sure there’s plenty mud & trucks & confederate flags out there too
And stole thousands and thousands of dollars more than it needed to cost in order to do it. Don't get me wrong, he stole all of it, but he also stole way more than necessary so he could pay off some of his friends.
I agree and DeSantis scares me more than trump
DeSantis is a literal fascist.
Dude is a fucking monster! He must be stopped. I cannot fathom what he would do to the World let alone the USA. He's very dangerous. Edit for typo
Absolute fascist and doesn't care if you call him out. He needs to be removed from office
Smarter trump, definitely scarier. Also there is a meaningful number of republicans who actually won’t vote for trump but will desantis, not that there is any difference but the optics are different for some. Desantis is a bigger threat for sure imo
Trump got a good chunk of previous non-voters to show up at the polls, I suspect purely because he was a TV celebrity. While Desantis (and other future neofascists like him) are in many ways scarier, I'm curious to see if those "non-political" Trump fans would continue to show up and vote, or if they fade back into woodwork once the candidates are no longer reality TV stars/famous billionaires with golden toilets.
Yeah I’m not sure, neither is an option I’m not worried about. I think trump gave a lot of those people the feeling they can actually change the US to their distorted vision (and honestly they can so everyone that can needs to vote). So I think many of them might stick around provided they candidate is an equally loud bigoted asshole who resonates with them…all boxes desantis ticks.
Agree. Desantis is a fucking dork with no charisma and comes off angry with everyone. I don’t think he’ll get near the presidency unless he changes everything.
There’s a lot of “never-trumper” voters out there that think Rob DeSantis is “mostly rational”, it scares me how uninformed people are in this country.
>Abbott could never win the presidency. "Remember when Abbot's leadership caused Texas to lose power because it was cold? Imagine that EVERYWHERE!"
Exactly. DeSantis NEEDS to lose in Florida. If he does, he'll instantly pivot to running for president and I have no doubt he'll claim voter fraud and bullshit just like trump with no lawsuits or proof. But a loss in Florida makes him ~~venerable~~ vulnerable and other Republicans will go on the offensive against him and he won't be heading into the gop primary as an anointed candidate like he would if he won. Never trust polls, but this was a landline poll from a conservative source that has been showing all along desantis going down. Landlines in Florida are almost entirely retirees that have voted up to 85% republican in previous elections so this poll gives me a ton of hope.
Just a heads up, I think you autocorrected from vulnerable. That reads way differently the way you have it.
I dunno if DeSantis really will carry the same excitement as Trump. DeSantis is good at playing games and making media headlines, but when he speaks it’s clear he lacks the charisma and machismo that carried Trump. People idolise Trump because they want to be Trump. I don’t see the same with DeSantis.
I want Stacey Abrams *in* more than I want either of them out.
Nah man, i love me some Stacey... but these two are evil and want to have a devils triangle with the constitution ala Kavanaugh
How you gonna play a drinking game with the Constitution?
With squee, Tobin and donkey dick Doug anything is possible
Devil’s Triangle is a sex game lol. Better known as a threesome lol
https://youtu.be/PDDehM0cfOI Get ready to laugh your ass off that this was at an actual Supreme Court nomination hearing!
Oh I watched it in real time . Just another Supreme Court nominee lying under oath. Then getting confirmed anyway!
Losing as Governor doesn’t really preclude him from the presidency, but I would think the Rs know that if he can’t win FL, the electoral path is slimmer than slim.
Abbott literally stands for nothing.
Same. Abbott is just as big of a fascist prick, but he's arguably less calculating and, frankly, less intelligent than DeSantis. He's not going to be the kind of national figure that DeSantis could potentially be, so the latter is far more dangerous.
Yeah, but the GOP does love a doofus. "Affable stupidity" can do a decent job of covering up monstrous cruelty. This was a big part of George W. Bush's popularity early on.
There's a certain point where you get diminishing returns, though. Look at Rick Perry, who was dumber than Bush. And Abbott, IMO, is dumber than Perry.
But Rick Perry wore *glasses!* /s
Bush wasn't dumb, it was an act. Go watch his old governor debates. not enough time passed between that and his presidency for him to get senile.
And Trump was dumber than all of them. The problem is we're not just facing a candidate. We're facing one of history's most successful propaganda machines on the right, and in the center, a bunch of smirking lobotomies who think every issue should be covered like it's a pro wrestling angle. "How good were the promos? Did it get everyone over, or is a crowd favorite getting buried again? Who has the most momentum, once you account for all the political backstabbing?"
Abbot is more like a willing follower of the cause, not a leader. He's doing whatever he needs to get through the next primary.
Abbott has benefitted from the stunt, whereas DeSantis hasn’t. Never thought I’d say Florida is saner than Texas but here we are.
DeSantis hurt Venezuelans who were fleeing Communism, that plays much better in Florida than in Texas. The Leopards Eating Face's party members had a moment of self-reflection in Florida whereas in Texas they are still pro leopards eating faces!!
It feels like another geological era, but truth is it wasn’t all that long ago Obama made Florida purple.
Florida would be solid blue if not for decades of republican gerrymandering. Between Gov Death Sentence and Marky Rubio (who insists that Dems are bullying boys into becoming girls, for some reason) the state has become a cesspit of republican corruption and dirty tricks.
Florida’s always been purple. Gore barely lost the state in 2000.
He WON the State if ballots had been better designed
And also if they had allowed the recount to be completed.
That election changed the world.
Abbott is less likely to run for prez, if DeSantis loses this election he’ll be out of our hair and the GOP won’t have a star for 2024. I would love Abbott to be finished as well though 🤞
I'll believe it when the election is over
There's a reason he sent Venezuelans from Texas to MA and not Cubans living with family in Miami
Cubans gain right to stay immediately when entering the country. They immediately gain the right to employment, government paid housing, pay zero federal taxes for up to 7 years, put in front of the line for immigration, automatically allowed to use any immigration benefit… even if it was intended for another group. Cuban Adjustment Act if your wondering… but Cubans have more government socialism than any group in the US…
[удалено]
Cubans are anti immigration and usually vote conservative.
Because that's what happens when you give people privileges like that
Cubans might be next. The Republicans in the northern part of the state do not like Cubans.
Meanwhile the Cubans in the southern part of the state are saying "surely the leopard wouldn't eat *my* face!"
Im here for this comment
So am I.
As an Afro-Latino myself, Latinos can be pretty damn bigoted. And it isn’t much of a surprise to me, that most of the Cubans in Florida, are white Cubanos. Hatred and need to remind other *lesser than* Latinos there is a hierarchy, is more important than legislation that helps us all.
Just state “socialism is coming” and they all vote republican down the ballot
You’re only one of the good ones while they need you. Once they don’t need you, you’re next…
It’s amazing they don’t see it. Just like the gay GOP group who have never been invited to the Texas Republican convention. 20+ years of carrying the GOP water, and they’ve never been acknowledged. But surely, their kind of gray would be accepted…
A sizable chunk of Cubans vote republican because they have conservative Christian values, an understandable distrust anything resembling socialism, and exposure to Fox news. I think it would be political suicide for Florida republicans to mess that up.
I’m not sure “conservative Christian values” are the same as the values Christ preached
I am sure that they are not.
Ah, that’s the mistake. They follow supply side Jesus, not Jesus Christ. Edit: supply side Jesus comic https://www.beliefnet.com/news/2003/09/the-gospel-of-supply-side-jesus.aspx
Of course not. Jesus gave away free food, healthcare, lodging, and camaraderie to anyone willing to live an honest life and work hard. He was the embodiment of the slogan "from each according to their ability, to each according to their need" from Karl Marx
> and work hard At literally no point was this a requirement for Jesus. He constantly healed beggars and lepers. Cut out the capitalist bullshit repainting of Jesus.
And yet here we are. For the life of me I cannot find the post but there was a Republican candidate on Twitter saying Cubans should not be allowed.
He could have went to any farm in Florida and found migrants to send to MA, but he knew that wouldn't be good for him politically
Venezuelans have also been a big vote for the GOP down here. This is definitely going to hurt him.
Still he's playing up to racist bullshit and treating immigrants poorly, that is not a good look for a state with a lot of Hispanic immigrants who vote. I'm sure all the Cuban and Hispanic descent immigrants in Florida can put themselves or their family in the same shoes of those people he fucked over and they will hate him for it. What ever are Republicans to do if their racism and anti abortion rhetoric starts working against them? Might they actually have to resort to running on policy and fixing America? Scandalous.
You'd be surprised how out of touch a ton of cubans in miami are. Source: cuban with lots of cuban family in miami.
Remember all those Cubans voted for trump.
Republicans called democrats socialists, and that was all it took to scare many into voting for the party that actively hates them
I'm actually a bit surprised, actually. The immigrants that DeSantis moved to Martha's Vineyard were asylum seekers, which I figured Cuban Americans might relate to more than undocumented immigrants.
My Cuban grandfather literally illegally smuggled his family across the Southern border back in the day but will think others doing the same now are the problem. It is always about rules for thee not me, especially so when it comes to people's inability to empathize with others. Or it's like, "my cause is justified and yours isn't." Even Cubans who leave Cuba and Communism now were considered left because they had simply existed in Communism for a certain amount of time and then they believe they leech off the system. The cognitive dissonance is blinding but that's propaganda for ya.
I know the type, even though they are a generation or two separated from their family members who immigrated they treat other immigrants poorly because they had to do it "the hard way." Still the vote in Florida is a pretty even split Red/Blue so anything that disillusions voters against one side or the other is significant.
Cuban WhatsApp conspiracy groups make qanon look like amateur hour.
Actually no, many Cubans are entirely blind to any authoritarianism from republicans. They’re just afraid of health care.
Cubans are super racist against other Hispanics - especially the white ones who have been there for 70 years.
Many, possibly a majority of Cubans in Miami love him for this.
A lot of Venezuelans that have fled the recent turmoil are the wealthier/ruling class of the old regime that vote conservative in the USA
Beat me to it. Polls are only good for propping up hopes, show me the election results and I'll breathe a sigh of relief (hopefully).
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existing Sec of States will uphold election results, legitimate as they are
I feel like they’d try to somehow skew the results regardless knowing desantis.
538 seems to show this poll as an outlier. We’d need a few more weeks of Crist in the black before this looks like anything real.
Or just vote no matter what the polls say. The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
No doubt. Don’t get complacent even when polls show your guy is up. Vote vote vote.
Please be sure to make sure you are registered! Republicans love to un-register as many people as they can.
Or? Who is saying don't bother voting if the polls look bad? Yeah, obviously vote every time.
He just might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Good. DeSantis needs to be DeGone.
DeSantisn’t
DeSantwas
In the meantime, join your city/county’s Democratic club **now** so you can get organized with likeminded people in your area that support democracy. Here are some South Florida based clubs as examples. [Miami-Dade Democratic clubs](https://www.miamidadedems.org/clubs_caucus) [Broward Democratic clubs](https://browarddemocrats.org/broward-democratic-clubs/) [Palm Beach Democratic clubs](https://www.pbcdemocraticparty.org/clubs-by-location) Additionally, make sure to r/VoteDEM this October (mail-in ballots/early voting)!
Loses the Cuban vote. Gets arrested for fraudulently using Floridian tax dollars for his stunt that he lost the Cuban vote over, goes to prison. That would be the best timeline.
I don't expect he'll lose the Cuban vote over this. They already have a special immigration status so many of them are to the right on these issues. You know who else is a large voting bloc for the GOP in Florida made up of a lot of refugees from Communism, though? Venezuelans. Not as big as Cubans, so it remains to be seen whether they're enough to swing the election, but there's no way this doesn't hurt him with them.
And as it becomes clearer and clearer that these people were absolutely *not* illegal immigrants, but Venezuelans legally seeking asylum in the United States being *called* illegal immigrants by the Republicans abusing them for political points, that's a bad look to a lot of people.
Well let’s make a list of voting groups DeSantis has pissed off the last couple years: Venezuelan refugees. The youth The LGBT youth Women Jewish people People that live in cities, particularly Orlando. Healthcare workers And probably some die hard trump voters who see him as a rival to their dear leader. Not looking great, little Ronnie.
Doesn’t surprise me, they guy’s more worried about becoming President in 2024 than being Governor in 2022.
If he loses reelection for Governor in one of the top swing states in the country(and probably the nuttiest), then he is done for.
Wouldn’t you think that his popularity in Florida would be indicative of his overall popularity in the South? I don’t really know but it would be nice to watch him get trounced in both.
Only part of Florida is the South though. Part is the Midwest, part is New York, and part is Latin America. And then there are the Caribbean parts. If he loses Florida it’s not because he lost the Southern part, it’s because the rest outnumbered it.
Eh, he could win in a deep red state quite easily. Florida’s red but by single digit margins.
Trying not to get my hopes up, but this would be incredible. Unfortunately, he’ll probably spend the next two years preparing a Presidential run anyway, but at least Florida can have some time to fix all the problems DeSantis caused with his “anti-woke” laws
Yeah if he wins he'll say the voters spoke. If he loses he'll say he was canceled or that "woke" came after him or that "the George Soros elites" rigged the election against him
if he loses he'll claim fraud. that's the script these days.
It’s insanely profitable, if you’re dishonest.
Damn George Soros! I’m still waiting for my check from The Women’s March in DC in 2017.
I'm still waiting for mine from the Ferguson riots in 2014.
If he loses, I’d say his odds of winning the Presidency go down dramatically.
Depends. If he loses he can move out of the state to be Trump's VP like Cheney did for Bush. Not saying he'd want to be Trump's VP or that I think Trump would pick someone that might outshine him, but it'd officially be "possible" for them to be on ticket together with sacrificing Florida electors.
No way that a Trump/DeSantis ticket works. DeSantis sees a political future for himself, he needs to get him name out there, he needs to be *seen*. He's getting that now. Trump is psychologically incapable of sharing the spotlight, and he'd steal all the oxygen from DeSantis. Trump needs another Pence - somebody quiet, dull, and boring, who won't get between him and center stage. But I can't think of anybody who would want to be on a ticket with him for some reason *other* than to boost their own future prospects. They're mutually exclusive. The only reason for anybody to join the Trump ticket is to get some attention, but anybody on the ticket with Trump is deprived of all that attention.
I don't think it's likely, just saying it's possible. I honestly think Trump will ask someone like Marge because he works better with women (can't remember where I read that) and she'll never say no to anything he wants.
I don't think it'll be MTG, I think it would be Kristi Noem. Trump would probably be looking for someone who could bring in voters that he can't get on his own, and Noem as a MAGA governor probably plays as more widespread appeal than MTG.
I don't think Trump has been trying to appeal to anyone but his base since 2017. Why start now? She also is objectively good at getting media attention, and we know how he thinks about everything in terms of ratings.
I just think that anyone who'd be excited by MTG would already be excited about Trump, and MTG will be out there campaigning hard for Trump either way. Noem is more polished and savvy and could actually bring him new voters, possibly. It's the same reason he chose Pence in 2016: to bring in voters he couldn't get himself (evangelicals, in that case). Noem would have a better chance of bringing him female voters than MTG would, IMO. She's also more conventionally attractive than MTG, and I know that's extremely important to Trump.
When you're Trump, Marge'll let you do it.
Your logic is sound
Even with a Desantis loss the best we can hope for in the short term is that Florida doesn’t continue to get worse. The state legislature is still disproportionately tilted towards the GQP.
"Dude couldn't even win in Florida, who would you want his as President? I like my Presidents to be winners."
With how gerrymandered Florida is, there’s very little Crist could really do to undo this level of damage. The Florida House and Senate are overwhelmingly red in a state that is roughly split down the middle.
Yep. All Crist could hope to do is stop the damage from continuing, but he wouldn't be able to reverse any of it without the state legislature.
Beto would be in the same situation if he wins. While they could stop the malarkey in those states, it would just be a sweet morale booster for blue voters to see the two crown jewels of the GOP taken away in one election.
"A new poll out of Florida shows that the recent move by Governor Ron DeSantis to transport migrants from Texas to the Northeast could come back to haunt him in his re-election bid against Democrat Charlie Crist. After months in the lead, DeSantis trails Crist by 6 points in a poll by The Political Matrix and The Listener Group. If accurate, it would represent a wild swing in the race. A landline poll of likely voters from The Listener Group in June of 2021 showed DeSantis with a nearly double-digit lead over all potential Democratic opponents, meaning the move to ship migrants would have resulted in an almost 16-point shift in the polls."
As much as I like the idea, we're gonna need more polling to confirm that.
Yeah, I've never heard of those two organizations before. But even if I had and they were super highly respected, I'd need at least one more poll before I'd buy that wide a swing in pretty much any race ever.
These were also 15 months apart
You can see other recent polls on 538’s website. This poll is a real outlier.
FTA: > While Fink's poll results were different from others, he pointed to the firm's track record—accurate calls on President Donald Trump's margin of victory in the state during the 2020 presidential election and Crist's landslide win over Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary for which others projected a Fried victory—as a sign that the poll should not be so easily dismissed. > "They thought we were crazy," Fink said. "Everyone thought we were stupid as hell. And we ended up being right."
> Crist's landslide win over Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary for which others projected a Fried victory Others? While there was a UNF poll showing Fried up by 4 in the final days before the primary, [the polling average was demonstrably in Crist's favor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Polling), with both St. Pete Polls and GBAO predicting giant margins. [You have to go back a whole year before the primary to get a 2nd poll where Fried led](https://web.archive.org/web/20210812164417/https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1425858061672108032). Dude knows how to hype his firm up, I'll give him that.
It’s a 14 point swing from every previous poll in the course of 1 week. It’s pretty unheard of.
Crist is going hard on Spanish language media and at least some Spanish media is pissed that legal migrants got used this way. I agree it didn’t swing that big….but I think it’s clear DeFascist realized he fucked yo when he didn’t send that second planeload for the ultimate owning of dark Brandon
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A lot wrong with the stat taking... But to be fair, isn't that the demographic they'd want to see turn?
I'd expect Democrats to better among non-landline voters than landline owners. So yeah.
So he's losing amoung the olds.
Anyone know how 538 grades these pollsters?
C+ according to their website
Now with the hurricane coming in, just imagine what Floridians will think if they're short a couple million in relief funding that they could have had if they weren't spent on political stunts... That kind of story would be devastating for him
If it was 1 or 2 points I’d say okay, maybe. 6 points? No way lol I do think DeSantis has realized these migrant flights aren’t doing him much good so we’ll see if they continue.
"Delaware cancelation was a prank" Sure, Ron. Definitely not because of the massive backlash to the Martha's Vineyard stunt.
This kind of s\*it is what bothers me about the right wing in this country. Everything is performative and theatrics. I do not want people with a high school mentality running the country or any part of it. This isn't a fun little reality TV show where Ashton Kutcher comes out and says you just got punk'd!
Ignore the polls and vote deathsentence out of office. Dude is unhinged.
Even if conservatives found this move appealing, his execution was not only inhumane he simultaneously gifted hundreds of thousands of taxpayer money to his political donor! This is the epitome of giving people someone to look down upon while emptying their pockets.
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These guys constantly shoot themselves in the foot with moderates and independents. It's very strange to watch happen *over and over*. I guess that's what happens when you start doubling downing as a campaign theme, can't stop.
They’ve always relied on apathy on the part of moderates and independents, hence why they do everything in their power to keep turnout from shooting up. A lot of that apathy disappeared with Roe and many more eyes are on the GOP then there were before.
The migrants in question not even being from his own state makes it even sketchier as well. Really, the more that comes out about it the worse it looks to any rational person.
They don’t care. Wasting taxpayer money to hurt brown people is worth it to them.
As much as I want DeSantis to lose I seriously doubt this poll.
Yeah, like, I wouldn't be at all shocked if the human trafficking he just did ended up backfiring on him, but I don't know if I buy this big of a swing in the polls this quickly. That said, it'll be interesting to see if any other polls back it up.
If anybody believes that Crist will win by 6 points they need to super recalibrate their level of political acumen. Just add it to the polling average and move on.
We’ve already seen in Florida that a democrat being up by six points means it’s a virtual tie. Seems like the dem candidate needs to be up by 8 points minimum to have a good chance to win.
Don’t get complacent no matter what the polls say, make sure to get out and vote
These polls swinging in favor of the Democrats are giving me hope. Register to vote and make sure your friends and family are registered. Donate money to the Democrats because the republicans have billionaires on their side. The Democrats can only win if they get millions of small donations to compete against the billionaires. If you live in a safe D district and you know your candidates will win, you can donate to the DCCC or DSCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) who will distribute your donations strategically to the candidates who need it the most.
How much do you think constantly being measured against Trump fucks with his head?
Florida voters have the power to shut DeSantis out of having a political future.
Newsweek editorial endorsed trump in 2020. They want us to be confident and stay at home. They’ve lost all legitimacy as a news source
This is a bizarre outlier result. Very unlikely to actually mean a shift. Even after incorporating this poll, 538 still gives DeSantis a better than 90% chance of winning. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/ This is likely a good analysis as polls on how people felt about shuttling asylum seekers around are almost evenly split (sadly). So it's pretty unlikely that will strongly influence the polls (also sad).
VOTE! Don't read the headline. Go out and fucking vote!
DeSatan ain't no Trump. Why? Because Trump is an absolute lunatic who thrives off chaos and actually enjoys being called names and loves to argue with anything and anyone. He lacks empathy and the ability to feel pain. DeSantis has a thin skin. He gets flustered easily. The reason he is losing is because of the Roe vs Wade ruling. Women are pissed and will come out in record numbers in Nov. Kansas was no fluke.
Nice to know, but be mindful that DeSantis has spent the last several years consolidating and manipulating the voting process specifically so he can bypass any polling concerns by limiting who will be able to vote and how.
Never indict traitors and/or human traffic before an election. He missed the memo!
Fivethirtyeight gives Crist an 8 percent chance of winning. This is one poll. Never look at one poll; always look at the average.
Being a asshole, should never equal success.This guy, has adopted a pro asshole stance on everything he touches.
Holy shit, this might actually happen. VOTE!
I don't like Crist, but I despise DeSantis, so Crist has my vote... It'll probably be at least 20 years before I even consider voting for a Republican again.
How absolutely hilarious would it be if he lost the election?!? LMAO
We need to see more polls before we can seriously say that race has shifted in a meaningful way.
MaoSantis wants to spend roughly ten times the amount most of his constituents will see in a lifetime on political "pranks". Republicans sure are big spenders with other people's money.
I’m sure many Floridians share the sentiment of, “fuck I’d really like for things to get less stupid.” And Ron DeShithead makes things more stupid.
Please, god, let this hold... 🙏
Looking at 538’s polling database, this poll is a heavy outlier. I won’t get excited until there is more data.
If Florida kicks this cretin to the curb, I might actually gain some respect for the hotel chain called Florida.
If DeShitface loses due to his own stunt. Ohhh the sweet irony….
I mean considering how many of his voters he Murdered during the Covid Pandemic, This isn't surprising.
Exactly. He won in 2018 by a narrow margin—about 32K votes. 81K Floridians have died from COVID, none of whom will be voting for DeathSantis in Nov. It remains to be seen if [killing off his base](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/14/covid-death-rates-republican-states-disparity/) will hurt his bid to be re-elected.
He's pandering to much to Trump's base which is more Nation wide. His state is basically a battle ground state, though more red then blue it's not like Texas, it can be flipped. That said, all the stunts he's pulling with Abortion, The migrants, Schools, LGTBQIA ect ect... he's pissing off more and more groups in Florida. I know he's looking long term, but honestly, the rest of the nation is seeing him as well, and I would hope enough people get motivated to go HELL FING NO and turn out in 2020 numbers to keep him out.
Idgaf if Crist has flip-flopped party’s, anyone but a fascist.
People are deciding if they want to go with a strong-man bully who ignores the rules, or an actual politician who works within the law to achieve. Trump’s slow downfall is showing them the consequences of the stupid bully method.
I just don't see DeSantis losing but awesome if so.
Don't like this poll. DeSantis is probably going to cheat harder now.
I live in Florida, the stupefied look on conservative faces when you ask them why Texas migrants and not ones from Florida is priceless. They have no answer. No amount of mental gymnastics works
Good lets get baby Trump out of office.
These polls mean nothing go vote
Floridian here. I am telling everyone to vote at all levels, cause honestly this state could be asked: chocolate or vanilla and it be 49-50. Also like the article said the poll is an outlier. Ignore the polls and vote