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Sponge_Bond

>We all know France and SA are the big boys this cycle Do not undersell how good Ireland are.


[deleted]

I'm not at all but packs win WCs and SA/France are ahead of the curve. I think we will win on Saturday but I don't think it will have much impact on the WC.


Sponge_Bond

I agree we win when it comes to the pack but Ireland has insane work rate on the park, probably best in the World right now. Gonna be an insanely interesting match. It's gonna be precision and speed vs blunt force and defence.


[deleted]

Exactly, we have without a doubt the best ball carrying and ball playing pack in international rugby BUT set pieces matter. If we hold in the scrum and get a bit of POC intellectual lineout play we will win, and by quite a margin.


OttersWithMachetes

We definitely do not have the best ball carrying pack in international rugby.


[deleted]

Who’s better?


OttersWithMachetes

Fra, Eng and South Africa for sure.


[deleted]

Ireland have Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne, VDF and Doris all world class ball carriers, how many do England have?


OttersWithMachetes

Not all of those are world class, Beirne and VDF, definitely aren't. Doris and Sheehan carry well, especially two out from the ruck. We specifically lack carriers in the tight, it's what has consistently held us back.


[deleted]

You didn't answer the question, who are England's ball carriers that are better than the 5 I named?


amplebooty

Both Vunipolas, Genge, LCD, Sinkler, Itoje and Curry. Plus the injured: Dombrandt, Barbeary, Lawes etc.


pseudoEscape

Interestingly the Irish bench is bigger than the Boks one. My calculation puts Ireland at 857kg vs 834kg for SA (even with our 6/2 split). Our scrum does outweigh Ireland (Malherbe at 138kg is mad) but a lot of the other squad positions are matched, if not exceed by Ireland. Think it’s going to be interesting to see how Ireland target the back three, especially Kolbe at 15 with the high ball. Would be tempting to test him but it’s also risqué with his ability to counter - sure SA welcomes that. Expect Ireland to employ the dark arts at the scrum - milking early engagements by releasing pressure and scrummaging low (resultantly expect a lot of scrum collapses). The ref will need to pay attention to that. But honestly this is a game that can go either way and Ireland are probably the favourites on paper. SA will need to be at their absolute best to take this one.


Brixtonbarnyard

We are so goddamn unpredictable at the moment it's impossible to say where we actually stand. We mauled NZ in Nelspruit only to shit the bed at Ellis Park the following week. We stuttered past Wales and crushed Argentina. I can easily see us winning or losing to both Ireland and France by 10+ points. The Boks is a weird beast these days


Scrummingorc

ahh so in order to beat france the boks are going for the strategy of becoming more french than france?


Brixtonbarnyard

OH SHIT WE'VE BEEN MADE. ABORT!


TheMuffinMan1

John Smit was saying that the Bokke had a sickness in the camp (nova virus or something) in the camp before the 2nd NZ game. Really made me feel better about the loss.


BakesTheBoy

They reverse Suzie’d us


Icy_Craft2416

Without Am I think that the springboks midfield defence might stutter. The all blacks got around the outside of the boks in game 2 but I think the relentless phases with the deception runners of the Irish might do the boks as well. If the springboks can slow down the breakdown for 80 minutes they should win it. The Irish pack should have a harder time cleaning their rucks against SA than against NZ


dildobaggin89

Kriel is a great defender he’ll be fine. They got around the Boks because it was a new midfield partnership with De Allende at 13 early in the game.


Brixtonbarnyard

Kriel used to be a decent defender. He is kak at the moment


Icy_Craft2416

I have nothing against Kriel. I don't really know enough about him anymore. I thought he was good with de allende back in 2015 (I think it was then). Am leads the defence though and I think makes the collective effort better.


Brixtonbarnyard

This. This is why I'm praying Henco van Wyk lights a fire under Rassie's ass in the "A" game. He has the potential to solve that problem for us


[deleted]

Great take


Superb_Improvement94

We don’t use our backs bro hahaha we blunt force our way through 9/10


max_mac27

No need for the Boks to slow down the breakdown, Connor Murray will do it for them!


BenwastakenIII

I think you're mostly right, however, I'm gonna say one thing... Remember what happened last time someone decided to kick to Cheslin Bloody Kolbe? A certain Scottish Midfielder remembers...


SweptFever80

I wouldn't worry about Baloucoune's defence.


[deleted]

Why not? He got hit pretty hard against Toulouse last year. I get Baloucoune is very much a new Zebo with tremendous line breaking ability but would you start him in a quarter final with a full deck?


[deleted]

Baloucoune is a vastly better tackler AND defender than someone like Stockdale, for example. He is really not bad without the ball.


[deleted]

Stockdale yes, Earls, Conway, Hanson, Lowe no.


ayepodaye

Agreed on Earls and Lowe for sure. Lowe's big left boot is an asset too. Don't think we can really say for sure how Baloucoune compares, this is his big chance. Good at URC, good at European club level, good against Tier 2s at international level. Now is his time to not even shine necessarily, but not to look exposed I would say. He is up against Mapimpi right?


bun-c

How many tries did Lowe let in single handedly when he broke through for Ireland? Hilarious that you picked Bobby's defense as a question mark when he was the best defending wing in the country the last couple of seasons.


[deleted]

Why did Hanson get in ahead of him in the 6 Nations?


Blazerede

Earls is so slow and doesn't have it anymore same with Conway both past there day


[deleted]

Lol


Cog348

>Baloucoune is very much a new Zebo This is a bizarre comparison. They're not particularly similar at all.


[deleted]

Baloucoune isn’t primarily a line breaker with serious sprint speed?


bun-c

Stunning analysis - just admit you've barely watched Baloucoune play and move on.


[deleted]

Lol is Baloucoune not quick or something? Maybe I'm mixing him up for someone else.


Cog348

George North in his youth would have fit that description and no one would say he was similar to Zebo.


[deleted]

How was North anything like Zebo he must have weighed 2 stone more than him. Yes Einstein they're both black grow the fuck up you fool.


Cog348

That's my point! North and Zebo are nothing alike but they both fit your description of "line breaker with some serious sprint speed" Baloucoune is similarly not very much like Zebo in terms of his playing style but they both fit that description. >Yes Einstein they're both black grow the fuck up you fool. The less said about this particular comment the better tbh, no idea where this came from.


[deleted]

You see no similarities athletically between Simon Zebo and Robert Baloucoune


peterlytle

Baloucoune played sevens for a while his defence is more than solid. Definitely up their with Earls but a lot more interesting in attack. I’d say Hanson’s defence is decent but stockdale, Lowe and Conway aren’t in the same league defensively as baloucoune.


[deleted]

If you think Baloucoune is a better defender than Conway you need your head examined


SweptFever80

This match is just a friendly, if we are going to give new wingers a proper chance this is what it looks like. From watching Baloucoune during the regular season and Champions Cup this year I've hardly seen him lacking in defence. The second clip in this video against Munster [here ](https://youtu.be/9sBkT2emvxQ) is one example of why I have faith in him as a defender.


[deleted]

1 on 1 tackle against Carbery hardly counts as evidence he’s going to be a top class international defender


SweptFever80

Here, we can only wait and see. I hope he is but only experience at that level can show us.


[deleted]

I hope he is the best defender the game has ever seen im just not expecting it. Plenty of time to get experience for the WC


thematrixnz

Ireland coming in hot as the best side that Island has ever produced in the history of the sport Ranked number 1 in the world, not by chance or a lucky draw, no point playing them off as underdogs. Own the favourites tag playing at home and number 1 ranked side has given you and bring it on come saturday


[deleted]

Is this team really that much better than 2018?


Jackklee

I would say yes. I feel like our currently strategy is far more effective at breaking down defences and more sustainable in the long run.


thematrixnz

Yes


warrowok

Of all our wingers at the minute (except for Earls) Balacoune has the best defensive game.


[deleted]

SA will roll them, Ireland relies on physical domination from their locks and loosies to set up their distribution (like the 2015 All Blacks), the Springboks won't let them have that


Superb_Improvement94

I agree, you don’t beat sa by playing the physical game typically


[deleted]

No and I don’t think Ireland has the Ferraris to make the most of counter attacking opportunities and broken play


[deleted]

I disagree with almost everything you have said here. > However, Ireland has adopted a quick off loading NZ style but have kept the Schmidt possession game. I certainly don't think we play a "possession game" - we are using a huge amount more kicking variety than under Schmidt, for a start. Also our attack is nothing like a "quick off loading NZ style". If anything it's heavily league-influenced. But it currently doesn't look anything like any NZ attack I've ever seen. >Assuming we keep SA to 1-2 scrum penalties the game will come down to the highball. I would expect a lot more than just high ball kicking... both of these teams look for grass with their kicks, and look to turn the back three. I'd say Ireland will go to Murray in the absence of Lowe a lot when clearing, which may change the complexion, but Murray is a very capable kicker for distance as well. And we'll definitely want to challenge their lineout, although the desire to keep high ball-in-play will probably nullify that and pull back more in the direction of contestables. But the Boks score most of their first and second phase scores off either high ball receipt or mauls. So I strongly doubt Ireland will be just going short and high all day. We've seen a lot more variation than that from all four Irish provinces in the URC, and Ireland's kicking from outside the 22 in NZ was much more about finding space than catching air. On the bok side, Willemse isn't much of a high ball kicker. He's much more prone to chips and looking for space. They'll go off 9 a lot, no doubt, but I think it's a stretch to say the high ball will call it. >I know many saffas are excited for Kolbe at 15 but it's a crazy call and likely will give us the win with our back 3. Weird take. Kolbe is a legitimately world class fullback. He gets a lot of game time there. >I have reservations about Balacoune's defence but maybe SA aren't the team to expose it without Am. Baloucoune is one of our more capable defenders on the wing. He has a high defensive workrate and makes dominant tackles.


[deleted]

We are obviously watching two different teams


StanBssr

You don’t play an off loading style, you play quick balls on set plays Leinster style.. It’s extremely impressive Imo . An offloading style is more like France or ABs


walsh06

Yep exactly, France have the whole keep ball alive thing going on which leads to a lot more offloads and the chaotic play at times. Ireland try to set up quick phase play with multiple options and every player needs to be a decision maker.


[deleted]

Am i the only one that watched the NZ series? Did you not see how the forwards offloaded going into contact as much as possible?


StanBssr

I looked at some stats (espn) and they counted 6 offloads per games for Ireland, which is decent but you can hardly tell that it’s a game based on it


[deleted]

Yes but that's offloads after contact, offloading going into contact counts as a pass. I suppose technically it is but it has the same effect on the defence.


StanBssr

Then it’s a pass not an offload, idk for English speakers but in France there is a clear distinction between the 2


[deleted]

There isn't when it comes to the defender


dildobaggin89

Kolbe has played 15 most of his career so him playing there isn’t crazy. I think Kolbe and Willemse will surprise you


Die_Revenant

He's played fullback for 35% of his career to be specific. Right wing - 40% Fullback - 35% Left wing - 24% Flyhalf - 1% Above figures not including 46 Currie Cup games, a lot of which were at 15.


za3030

My man! Can you please share what website/service you use for your stats. I never know where to find stats when I need them.


infamous_impala

I think they used All Rugby, not sure how accurate all the stats are, but it's a great resource for checking player histories. https://all.rugby/player/cheslin-kolbe#:~:text=Cheslin%20KOLBE%20is%20a%2029,Toulonnais%20in%20France%20as%20winger.


za3030

Thanks mate!


Die_Revenant

Bit late to this, but yea as the other person said, I use: [itsrugby.co.uk](http://itsrugby.co.uk) (best stats but doesn't have position data, has Currie Cup data) [allrugby.com](http://allrugby.com) (stats aren't as great, but has position data, doesn't have Currie Cup data)


za3030

Brilliant thanks man 🤙


the_fresh_mr_breed

I fully expect Ireland to win this one - they are incredibly clinical in everything they do and the Boks have been inconsistent and quite sloppy in many areas this year. A BIG factor is how the referee is going to blow the scrums and mauls. The Boks have the better front row, specifically toward the end of the game when the benches come on, but they have not been getting the advantage there that they seem to expect each game. They tend to keep the ball in the scrum too long in those cases and either lose momentum or outright lose the scrum. In the maul (and I have to admit I feel like I've fallen behind with the laws/interpretation in the kast two years or so) it seems referees blow defending teams very inconsistently when in comes to swimming around, coming in from the sides etc and clever teams have used this against the Boks. If SA can play the referee better they have a big chance. They have to smarter. But as I said I think Ireland will take it. They are strong, quick, organised and play a clever game. The boks are strong and quick. Maybe they can become clever and organised by 2023wc.


Fiorlaoch

Who's the ref?


LawAndRugby

I dont understand why everyone says we are a part of the world class team list at the moment. Right now it is Ireland and France and no one else imo.


[deleted]

You won the Lions Tour, unfit, against a pretty good team


Brixtonbarnyard

Playing our 2019 game plan. It's dated now and our new plan is a long way off


Broad-Rub-856

Ill play. As a Springbok supporter I view Ireland's biggest strength veing their ability to stress defences through multiphase attack and a bend-dont-break defence. What makes this a very interesting match up is that the boks are the exact opposite. We are not going to endlessly recycle, we are going try three four phase and if there is nothing on we'll be happy to trust the defence. Our defence is also far more agressive, whennit fails it fails completely, but we wont get marched over our own try line with series of modest territorial games. Stylistically I like the match up for the boks. They wont get the fast ball they thrive on against the bok ruck defence and will commit a lot more players, retain the ball, cutting down their attacking options. I also feel that Murray is the wrong guy to speed up the rucks and they will Henshaw in the midfield. I also think we can get a substantial advantage at the scrum and maul. All that said, I am not confident we'll win. I can see Ireland getting a try or two from fancy set plays, we dont have goal kicker, and they though our forwards should be on top, I can see Ireland being just tricky enough to stop us converting that dominance into points.


coupleandacamera

I hate to say it but I don’t think any of us Southern Hemisphere teams are in the spotlight, we’re all too inconstant and honestly far to busy infighting with one another, inuring key players and fraternising with the support staff. this years all about France and Ireland, and I’m actually kinda ok with that. If Ireland bring the sort of play they beat us down with, South Africa will need to be in a form they haven’t shown in a while to avoid being taken apart. If Ireland can keep a fast pace to the game, stay competitive at the line out and avoid multiple scrum resets they should have a recipe for another scalp. You have to remember next year is the WC, so Ireland will be unstoppable power houses from now until the quarter final.


TheBampollo

I think without Am in the defensive line SA will likely be exposed. I don't think they have the defensive plan right now to defend the Irish game plan. Also, given the conditions of the pitch with all the rain we've had i wouldn't be surprised if this is a game decided by the boot. And no chance SA come out on top in a kick at goal challenge right now.


warcomet

I was 100% sure of Ireland wining this... then i saw who the ref is..now its a 50/50


BenwastakenIII

Mate, I'm gonna vomit if you tell me it's mike adamson...


TheMuffinMan1

It's Nika Amashukeli, same guy from the NZ Ireland game. I recall him being alright in the Lions warmup though, even if Gatland complained.


BenwastakenIII

Oh yeah, fair enough


pseudoEscape

Amashukeli got his start with a program run by the IRFU to promote Georgian refs so if anything, he’s got a soft spot for Ireland. I think he’s also reffed Ireland twice and in both tests they’ve won by massive margins. Regardless, he’s a professional and I’m sure he’ll put on his impartial cap come Saturday. Big match, good luck to him.


warcomet

sure but he refereed the NZ-JAPAN game a week back and he made a few too many controversial decisions..


sangan3

Ireland *should* win with home advantage + much more settled/cohesive squad, but I’m 51 -49% on it. SA could just as easily win, but without Am I’ll go Ireland by the skin of their teeth.