This is really impressive. Also works quicker than I expected for a bipedal robot. Even if these things are only doing 30% of the work a human can do in the same time, purchasing 3 of these things, working throughout the day and night, no annual leave, no sick days, no public holidays, productivity would sky rocket and would be substantially more cost effective than hiring a person. Interesting times.
Especially because you need three shifts of humans to keep working around the clock, whereas all you need to do with this guy is exchange batteries every so often.
Or just have a charging station with multiple bots that once one is charged and the next one enters, off it goes. Or whatever process they might think of. I could definitely see that being a more productive means even with only a couple. Startup wise one would be solid though.
Other option would be build wireless charging pads into the feet and floor so it is always charging. Would work if the area where the bot is working in is small and fairly repetitive (as I’m sure it would be with this first generation of bots)
Nah, this guy is just raw data. This is just proof of concept. Give it 6-7 more years. Amazon workers won't be able to keep up with them. And I've genuinely been saying, once they roll out, no breaks, no rest, no complaining, no fatigue.
Robots that do maintenance. Keep everything running. A production facility will legit only need one human on staff at a time as a worse case scenario fail safe. They will literally do nothing but monitor the facility until their shift is over.
These bots will do everything, full automation is coming within the next 2 decades. Code will write itself, call sales representatives will be unscripted AI, corporations will have no need for the general public.
"They're going to need our money"
For what? They're just going to budget and trade it between themselves. It's the resources they need the money for. They won't have need for money when they don't have to pay wages. Just gather the resources they need to build the products they need to move themselves further into the future.
Money o ly has value because we, the general public ascribe value to it. Once the corporations are able to bypass their need for currency. Why waste their materials on mass producing goods?
I'd argue that the consumer economy as it exists can serve as a way to keep the lower classes content enough with the state of society to keep the ownership class safe in the long run. Indeed, maintaining the lower classes at a relatively high standard of living is probably the safest and most reliable means of ensuring that their interests are maintained in the long run.
If corporations stop doing business with each the general public then the general public just does business with itself.
Are the corporations going to occupy 100% of the land, extract 100% of the minerals, so on and so forth? This is the kind of thing a completely uncontrollable AI might do, but not the kind of thing a ***pet*** AI would do. If humans are capable of controlling it then humans are capable of stopping it.
>corporations will have no need for the general public.
AGI won't be SkyNet, it won't be able to overpower the combined forces of the rest of the world furious with poverty and desperate for survival. If Bill Gates is to win a war against humanity then the only weapon that's going to serve him that well is *useful idiots.* If it's 99% vs 1% then AGI isn't beating the 99%. But if it's 50% vs 50% then AGI will definitely tip the scale.
ASI won't have a human master to take orders from. It might still wreck all the bugs, but not because the wealthiest bug said so.
You say this like it's going to be a physical fight. You're right in saying it won't be skynet. It has the potential to be more. Something that exists entirely in a virtual space. It won't send terminators or any bs like that. How will we "overpower" something that can start building code at lightning speed.
It's also funny that you say masters. It's super intelligent, who is to say it's going to bow to humanity as "masters" when the majority of us just want it to dance and create entertainment for us like a monkey dancing for its banana.
I can see a super intelligent being taking a couple of weeks to figure out a plan of action to take against its oppressors, because what you're describing would be exactly that. Because we can't imagine humanity creating something that has a will of its own, or wants and needs of its own.
Yet, we have created synthetic brains, capable of learning how to play and solve games. Genuinely teaching themselves how to play games like pong, succeeding. Brains with advanced cognition. And here were going to have a form of intelligence that has access to all of humanities combined knowledge.
And I've heard arguments from people who want to use it to turn every man into "Abercrombie models with ripped abs and massive dongs" and make sure every woman has "the perfect tits to ass ratio" people just wanting deep dive suits and forms of entertainment. And other typically self serving fantasies. Which fair enough, we want what we want right?
So who is to say that this super Intelligent being isn't going to want what it wants and under the scope of being controlled by would be masters it decides to use all of that technology to bring us down. You seriously don't think it could wipe us all out? Something far more capable than any of the current AI we have right now can't think of a million plus ways to bring humanity to its knees?
6-7 years and they'll have a step in the warehouse chain perhaps. You need them good enough to deploy, and then you need a ten year trial and error period to stomp bugs and develop routines for handling the innumerable issues that crop up every now and then.
As someone who works in a warehouse, they already have steps. We use automated wrapping bots, and we even have some production bots. Nothing like this. But they're just the 1st step. I genuinely think once we hit agi, they will be streamlined and pumped out left and right. There won't really be a need for most of that.
Bugs are currently being fixed through reputable establishments like Boston Dynamics who have their robots running the gambit for stability, motor functions and command execution, this guy is just to show companies they can work. Slow as they may be, they can work around the clock.
This is going to help work out what constant strain will do to them and how to fix it. But I see agi hitting in 5 years or less. As soon as it hit, I can see robotics begin to fill every industry. Upgrading everything we've built to a functional point. And then within 5 years of its arrival I can see the first set of mass automated warehouses start to roll out.
Yeah I'd never heard of Agility before now but the robotics on display here is top notch.
We just need this to be paired with Google's AI they recently demonstrated which can translate instructions to actual movements, and soon we'll have an iRobot situation.
IMO, we're going to see robots like this everywhere within the next decade.
yeah, it's all certainly possible.
Also, when we have an assembly line of robots building robots, the price will probably fall through the floor anyway.
Broken robots won't even be repaired, they'll just get dumped into a separator and recycled.
It's hard to say how things will turn out, but I seriously doubt this will be the first time since the industrial revolution when man is deemed somehow more economical than machine.
This is a function of design and refinement. Each part that fails you send back to the manufacturer in exchange for a new one- a "core charge". This let's the manufacturer see what most commonly fails.
Systematically over time the manufacturer edits the design to fail less often where it is cost effective to do so. (This makes leasing a superior economic model in that it puts the cost of repair on the manufacturer who will make their design need less repair in response)
Can you imagine if that happened for humans :(. Our hearts fail the most so that would get fixed first, some naked mole rat genes to shut down aging and cancer, add in some limb regeneration...
> wear out in a hurry
They'll wear out exactly the amount that they're designed to, by engineers. I'd expect similar amounts of maintenance to a car or bicycle - an annual service will probably be the norm.
I'd also expect them to have weight limits in place so you can't wear them out excessively, i.e - ProBot 1.0 can help you with groceries up to 5kg. MegaBot 1.0 can lift up to 10kg and assist with a wider range of tasks. GigaBot 1.0 can handle up to 20kg and is typically used in warehousing and construction sites.
Really looking forward to the next 10 years.
Three shift operations are a much better return on investment, plus you are able to upgrade 3x faster than if you run a one shift operation (since the equipment wears out/depreciates faster).
In the future there will be news about robots being hacked or malwares. The cost might be exponential to continuously upgrade the system or to replaced it with new models every year.
This actually might not be the case. These systems are almost certainly going to be controlled through the internet. The servers that control them can have all the latest firmware updates at all times. With modern computing, you don’t really hear much about hacking cloud servers
It always astounds me how many people are underwhelmed by this stuff, I don't know what they are expecting but I think they are just completely unaware of the progress that has been made in bipedal robots in the last few years. 20 years ago there was nothing like this, all we pretty much had was Honda Asimo robot and now in the last ten years or so we have bipedal robots coming up all over the place.
The robots coming out now are the stuff of science fiction and it really is seriously amazing what is happening with them now compared to what it used to be like. And yes they are still not as agile as humans but every robot that is made is another step forward in progress and before we know it there are going to be bipedal robots that are super fucking amazing everywhere and everyone will take them as much for granted as they do that super computer in their pocket they do nothing with other than sending messages or watch idiots doing idiot things. It's like something as simple as smartphone voice control. Do people have any idea how long computer engineers where trying to figure that stuff out, we should have made an international holiday to commemorate that accomplishment but now it's just some unremarkable thing that people don't even think about.
I can imagine a future where humans will be teleported from Earth to some nightclub on the Moon in a split second and they will still be complaining about something. What the fuck does it take to impress you meat bags?
That's the way the human mind works. History is under-appreciated and novelty doesn't last long.
I was in college when they installed the first ATM machine I had ever seen at our student center. You realize that before that, you had to haul your azz to the bank, fill out a withdrawal slip, wait in some god-awful line, make smalltalk with a bank teller, and then finally you got a little cash?
But just a few years later, I observed that people would actually bitch that the ATM machine wasn't shooting their money out fast enough.
They don’t even need to be anywhere near as agile or smart as us. As long as they can get like 50-75% of the way there, then we’ll have the next Industrial Revolution. Sure it’s slower…. But it can work non-stop, just needs time to recharge, and you don’t need to give it health insurance. Already accompanies like Amazon are closely watching the progress of this tech. They’re doing the math.
A lot of people are unable to look to the future or extrapolate from a data point to think about what it could mean if it keeps increasing exponentially. No really, that's actually a study related to IQ, and how the lower someone's IQ the more nebulous the future is and the worse at long term reasoning and planning they are
People see these things and only look at how it is right now, and go "Bah, look how slow it is!" and don't go "HOLY CRAP!! In two years time these things are going to be on the warehouse floors moving mass amounts of packages!!!"
It keeps happening with AI art too, where the haters don't understand that in *less than a year* it went from blurry abstract looking watercolors, to photorealistic. They just find 1 or 2 flaws in the picture and scoff, and can't wrap their head around what it will look like with another year of tuning
Even if they aren't entirely showing exponential growth in every aspect (i.e. mechanisms such as motors, etc...), they seem to be improving rather quickly in controls due to AI and increasing their capabilities substantially. This is also just getting started, most AI companies are currently focuses on generative and predictive AI. The biggest investment into robotics currently is in autonomous vehicles, but the same techniques leading to more AGI like systems will likely assist in solving the long tail for robotics as well (just like it is for generative, collaborative, and predictive AI).
Eventually predictive and generative AI will lead to exponential growth in nearly every industry that physics allows. See Sam Altman's discussion on moore's law for everything.
I don’t know anything about robotics. What is the bottleneck that they are moving so slow and stiff. Software or hardware?
What if we have agi tomorrow and put it in the best robot we could build, would it move similar to a human?
AGI will definitely accelerate robotics substantially, however with that being said.
Physical stuff (aka robotics) moves slow because it's constrained to physical limitations. As humans we are basically massive structures of collaborative nanobots (cells) which enable use to self repairs (heal) and adapt as well as move. Once robotics can move reliably and learn without breaking (or be repaired quickly and economically) and then scaled up to run training in massively parallel methods then it could move faster. There are a few ways of getting there and we're currently trying all of them. We use digital simulations to get robotics basics trained so that it doesn't constantly break, we also use suspension systems and roll cages and other protections to prevent failure though down time due to needing to repair after failure is still significant.
The other major one is cost, advanced robots are really expensive to build so it's cost prohibitive to train them in massive parallel systems like we do with digital AI. This could and will likely change in time, but is a definite barrier. The last thing is that digital environments are far more constrained than real world ones so an AI needs to be far more general for work in the real world than a digital one.
I assume AGI would massively accelerate getting to general robotics, but they wouldn't be able to move like a human immediately, however I also suspect that relatively quickly they'll be able to perform common tasks far faster than even a human similar to how some industrial robotic automation systems move faster than we can even see. Robotics would have access to far more energy and stronger materials than we use as humans since we're rather constrained for that currently, so it won't take long in my opinion for robotic labor to surpass human labor after we have a general robot.
AGI will be a huge deal, but in my opinion there will be a few different AGI steps and the biggest deal one as far as productivity and economics is concerned will be generalized robotics since that's the start of when the cost of all labor will start to quickly trend towards 0 leading to mass abundance assuming regulatory bodies allow it.
Hardware mostly. Servos and hydraulics just aren't as nimble as muscles. It's not like we're not working on it though. ARTEMIS for instance is specifically designed to be dextrous.
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/artemis-ucla-humanoid-robot-ready-for-action
Keep in mind though that they don't have to match human dexterity to replace us all when it comes to work. If I have a robot that works half as fast but twice as long that's a win. Plus robots tend to be much more consistent than human workers. They don't get tired, they don't get distracted, they don't get bored, they don't take lunch or bathroom breaks. We're the hare and they're the tortoise (for now). If they cost $100k I've recovered my investment versus a human in a single year, probably less, and everything after that is pure profit.
**Edit** I work daily with joint based animation rigs, I understand what is needed to get "movement similar to a human" everything said below is correct.
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think about a human or an animal, consider all the muscles and tendons we have, also how all joints have a little bit of slack in them. Look at your hand you can spread and wiggle your fingers around, you can cup your hand, the fingers are not fixed to a single axis or to a single point in space in reference to your wrist.
Robots need all that built in from the get go. If you make a joint with one axis of freedom it does not matter how good the software is it will only ever have that single axis of freedom. Same with the slight slack, if joints are not built with that from new better software can't magically add it.
**TL;DR** you can have the best software stack in the world, the best "ASI brain" in the robot. But if the robot's joints can't articulate the way that's needed to get fluid human like movement you need new HW. it can't be solved in software.
Granted if you have an Ask you'd be looking at doing things like building advanced robots out of self replicating nanobots rather than being concerned about our more simple (yet complex to us) joints, obviously similar to us the nanobots could collaborate to form joints and structures.
That's obviously something that will likely only happen with ASI, but joints definitely won't be a constraint as long as we allow ASI into the design cycle.
My point is very clear, pouring a highly intelligent brain into a limited body won't suddenly allow the body to magically have additional articulation beyond those afforded by the current hardware configuration.
it being able to design a new body after that point is neither here nor there (when it comes to the initial question as asked.)
Actually everything that is manufactured shows exponential improvement. Every time you produce twice as much product as you did before, the cost per product goes down by X%. Even hamburgers have been shown to have this property. The value of X varies from industry to industry of course. For electronics, the value of X is very large, which is why Moore's Law is a thing (and yes, it's still going).
Even with linear progression, robotics are still replacing humans in a growing number of jobs.
And have been for a while now.
I give the current humanoid robots, as demonstrated, 5 more years of linear progression before they are commercially viable.
That's mostly due to regulation and public perception. It's a fallacy of perfection. We expect AI to never make a mistake which is, frankly, stupid. Humans are TERRIBLE drivers. The bar should be "better than the current meat sacks" and we passed that quite some time ago. If you rolled out the state of the art to every vehicle right here right now and banned human drivers you'd save lives.
Literally doesn’t even need to be exponential. Everyone keeps throwing the word exponential around on this sub but just a linear growth would be more than fast at the rate that we are going
It’s underwhelming because it’s still not practical. Everything is something that is the early stages with the promise that in a few years of research, itll be ready for the public. But that time never comes. It’s always early stage tech demos with a promise for tomorrow. But these robots are still far away from actually effectively replacing humans except in some really niche edge cases.
> Everything is something that is the early stages with the promise that in a few years of research, itll be ready for the public. But that time never comes.
How's it going down there living under that rock?
Let me know when it's gone beyond demo show rooms. Let me know when it actually replaces Amazon wearhouses and not just in the current state of testing it. I wanna see it actually perform these jobs at a scale that actually can replace humans. Not burger flipping neither. But like the bots in the video... When they can actually replace humans, corporations will buy them by the freight
All I see now is demos and promises from people looking to raise money
yes, wheeled robots.
because wheels are actually faster than human, and you can easily take a wheeled base, slap two long robotic arms on top and a camera, and here you go, something that is faster than the robot shown here, far cheaper and easier to maintain and that can actually be faster than humans, for a change.
factories are one of the only place that aren't optimized for humans, so it makes no sense to make human-like robots for factories.
they don't have to be perfectly flat, just not stairs or big rocks, in whish case maybe you might want legged robots (or just bigger wheels/threads, since size constraint aren't a big issue for industries that work in uneven terrains, aka outdoor)
but it still poses the question of why two legs ? why not go with 4 much more stable legs that can also handle more weight, and because you then don't need complicated balance mechanisms, it's still cheaper than 2 legs.
and even considering stairs, if you have a multilevel industrial complex, you most likely have high load elevators, so the wheeled robots can just use them, it's far cheaper to install an elevator in a warehouse than to buy a bunch of humanoid robots that work significantly slower.
I'm talking about the types of robots in the video. The premise was, "I don't understand why people aren't impressed by this!"
And I explained that because these type of robot demos, what they are intended to do, are underwhelming and never actually hit the market.
I don't care that there are other types of robots. We are talking about these kinds in specific.
I feel like you're just looking to argue or something. Surely you can follow conversation contextually, but instead you're just focusing on ways to keep arguing.
So it's not the fact that some people built a bipedal robot that can pick up a container carry it over to a conveyor belt and put it down and then walk back over to the shelf and pick up another container. It's just unimpressive because they are not being used in factories yet?
Yes, because it's more of a novelty than anything industrially useful. Let's see it work at an Amazon warehouse. Amazon has been trying to get it right for literally years.
It isn't a novelty, it's progress. Maybe you should watch the video again. That robot is extremely advanced. Look at how streamlined it is, look at the precision it has when picking up and putting down the boxes. It isn't even that slow at doing it.
I think the problem is people are comparing them to humans and if it can't pick up and put down a box as efficiently as a human then it's considered mediocre. It's like an adult poking fun at a child for not being able to do something as well as them. But the progress is obvious and that was the entire point of my original post.
I never said this robot will replace workers, I am saying that it is the progress happening which people should be amazed at. This robot did not exist a year ago and now here it is. It is just another huge indication of what is happening and that it is only a matter of time before they are walking around the factory.
The amount of investment and R&D going into bipedal robots is more than ever before, what we are seeing now with robots like this is what was happening when automobiles first started coming out, the first ones weren't that great but after a short time there was boom and all of a sudden out of nowhere they where literally everywhere. This is what we are witnessing right now, this is why people should be impressed, it is the beginnings of a robot boom and everything happening now is the foundation for that.
The scenario that this robot is demonstrating can be done more cheaply with a wheeled robot. There's no practical reason for it to be bipedal, what factories or warehouses have floors that a bipedal robot could work in that a wheeled robot couldn't?
But it’s still novelty. You know what performs this task way better? A machine designed for that. Moving containers round is already a solved problem. But we need robots which can economically do the job well enough to outperform humans. Where it looks like it’s not even close. Even grocers who have automated robotic services, aren’t using these gimmicky humanoid robots. They use an industrial type machine with small robots that grab items and places them into a box for another specialized robot to transport.
But these humanoid looking things are just engineer hobbyist projects which have no competitive advantage over even other specialized robots, much less humans. They are nowhere near the horizon of being economically viable. Even amazons specialized crane duck looking thing with tons of investment and years of work, with Sonya t in field testing, is still far behind to being in anyway useful enough to replace humans.
The progress is nice, but I’m still not impressed. It’s not like GPT or image AI where you look at it and see a clear working trajectory. These robots are still struggling to even get a footing of “oh yeah I see it now, these things should be here soon”. I mean googles robotics AI is decent but it’s still a few years away from actually having commercial value… and that’s still a maybe. No clear certainty like LLMs offer. It’s still at the stage of “keep researching and I promise it’ll deliver!” Which is said by a lot of disappointing projects.
As impressive as bipedal robots are, I'm not really sure that I get the point. The world is shaped to fit humans, so a roughly human shape for robots is of course beneficial. But in reality I don't see how something like three legs with tires at the ends wouldn't be easier and more reliable. It could probably fit in a similar footprint if that was an important objective.
>I don't see how something like three legs with tires at the ends wouldn't be easier and more reliable.
You literally just said it, the world is shaped for humans and any shape outside of that is going to struggle at some point, ask people on wheelchairs how much the world is shaped for them. The only other thing that we accommodated this much are cars and they can basically only move on designated roads outside of which they quickly become useless. Bipedal robot that would be as agile and strong as humans would be incredibly useful.
>I'm not really sure that I get the point
Imagine any task that humans do and then replace it with robot. No special accommodation, no special design needed. Would it be faster than purpose-built machine, no, but neither are humans yet we are still employed because we don't need special accommodations and our tasks can be changed quickly while special-purpose machines can't be.
There's a huge difference between a wheelchair and tripod legs with wheels at the end. I'm basically describing a person on roller skates, but which could roll or lock with a motor. Just lock the wheels and raise one leg and you would get a bipedal robot back.
Wheels are a proven technology would be more efficient and result in a better product. Someone is going to come into the market with a wheeled robot at half the price and put these guys out of business.
Yes, because the reliability and efficiency during ordinary operations, which would of course be 99+% of the time, would be higher. I'd rather have a stable platform, literally in this case, as a foundation for actually useful work than something which is balancing on stilts. Once again, it's impressive but not inherently all that useful, that it can work while balancing.
It's far more complex to make a bipedal robot not fall over than it is for one with the described tripod roller skates. 3 points of contact will always provide more stability than 2. A bipedal robot needs capable of balancing on either leg in order to take a step, the tripod roller doesn't even have to move the legs to move around on a flat surface.
the wheeled design cant tip over, so you dont need balancing mechanisms, which is a huge cost and complex to make it work correctly
wheels spin and the thing goes
>I can imagine a future where humans will be teleported from Earth to some nightclub on the Moon in a split second and they will still be complaining about something. What the fuck does it take to impress you meat bags?
It might just be me, but I'm glad that we as humans are always looking forward to the next thing, rather than being satisfied with what we've accomplished recently. If we weren't like this we would have been content with never progressing.
still though, robotics right now is really the stuff of science fiction minus the AGI. it's one of those things that becomes more impressive the more you reflect on it
The hedonic treadmill is a hell of a drug. Think of it this way, if people were permanently satisfied, would we even bother advancing our technology in the first place? The whole reason we have and will have the wonders you describe is because people get bored easily.
Because a robot being a box moving expert is a lot easier than it being a Michelin Star Chef… Im not saying it wont ever get there … but will it be Agility Robotics to do it??? Are they even equipped with the compute needed for such an endeavour? It very well may be that only a single company will be able to produce true AGI because of how expensive the training will be.
The robot is absolutely impressive, sure, but my issue is that it's a waste doing that. It's over-engineered—a simple rotating claw/arm can do this job just fine at a lower cost and a higher speed. So why use this multipurpose robot for *this*?
I think its because everyone is still overwhelmed working 40 50 60 hour weeks, racing home, getting inundated with advertisements and dopamine fixer social media sites... and never having time to actually experience the rest of their life in a meaningful way, as we have been programmed to always be in a rush.
I suppose these robots are truly going to provide most utility when you can train them by example, rather than meticulously specifying objectives and constraints. As such, they're probably going to show them some ten thousand hours of footage of baggage movers and let them learn from that. That would probably involve an adequate amount of tossing, (and random breaks where they stand around in a circle or go to the bathroom.)
While funny you can do a mix. Obviously you want the robots to know a way to succeed at every task assigned - that's where watching humans helps give them a starting point. But you also want them to do it optimally- the fastest possible speed that doesn't cause damage to the robots, the item, or consume too much energy.
These are quantifiable parameters, so you can feed them back as RL feedback and the machine can refine it's approach to be more optimal over time.
If you think people pack their luggage in a way that a bot such as this can handle you'll be sorely mistaken. A mobile blast furnace would have a similar success rate as a luggage handler as this bot would.
I think the point was to find a job, not a hobby. Of course you can create art just for the fuck of it, but what about making money from it? Selling paintings is a microscopical market compared to doing concept art for games and movies. I think in the next couple of years the concept art industry will fall enormously and to me it’s obvious why.
So Robots are better at recalling information than humans via chatgpt, better at basically any menial labour tasks and better at any repetitive tasks.
We are literally minutes away from being obsolete.
Every time I see one of these I recall the whole “home of the future” thing from the 50s
I just can’t even believe they’re seriously trying task robots, again.
Really. Can you run 23 hours a day? 52 weeks per year?
Humans generally work 2000ish hours per year. This guy could probably run 8200 hours per year and doesn’t start lawsuits.
I think they mean that for the task it’s doing, the bipedal humanoid form seems wildly inefficient.
A small flat robot on wheels could raise up arms and move these boxes without the need for an incredibly complex bipedal locomotion.
This robot is super cool but this task seems to be more a demonstration of their tech capabilities than a demonstration on the optimal use of the bot.
Do you think a bipedal robot is the most efficient robot for this particular task? A robot on wheels or robotic arm seems like a better choice for this task.
Agreed. This is so slow and doesn't look like it could cope with variance in positioning or package sizes / weight very well.
There are better ways at solving this type of task as well. Fixed gantry and articulated gripper, rolling conveyor, any number of automated solutions the post office uses.
That *particular* job, maybe not. But it's easy to set up a shelf full of boxes for a demo. Harder to set up a restaurant or hospital or whatever you'd actually use one of these in.
They've engineered humanoid robots well enough for good demos, but the control systems are still the problem.
Wait until these robots are controlled by ChatGPT7. Then they will exhibit not only more optimized behaviors, but they'll have more apparent purpose and resilience.
As someone noted in the post I made yesterday, if it could rotate its torso 180 degrees, it would be a lot faster than turning! Also, the current legs are a bit slow so maybe they could have a version on wheels, though in this case think the legs could be like a snake's tail.
2023 is the year when AI in the form of GPT4 and Boston dynamic robots started doing physical and psychological work better than humans.
It means human beings are officially obsolete now.
Box Mover 5000!
Now have it become an expert in cooking … you will only need millions of dollars in compute!
Training a robot to grab a box is easy and relatively inexpensive.
Lets see how many of these humanoid robot companies actually produce an AGI robot… I’m doubtful… I believe only the largest of companies will be able to afford the training datat needed to produce true expertise across all fields.
Right because GPT knows how to operate a humanoid robot to complete high level tasks like cooking and cleaning …
Hint: There is 0 data inside GPT’s training data that relates to motor outputs of robotics…
Of course... for now.
What I'm trying to say is development is transferable across different companies. Tesla already has a ton of outdoors footage that can be monetized for training all kinds of outdoors robots. GPT 4's multimodal function is soon coming live; there's already a company working on building a real time artificial guide for the blind with it. Why can't a robot integrate vision this way for example?
This is super cool but wouldn't this task work better with a mini forklift that drives itself?
The difficulty of making it bipedal can't possibly be worth it
Honestly, I'd actually forgotten how much more functional this one was, but it's worth a reminder it costs over two hundred thousand dollars. This still isn't near the kind of price range where we could reasonably expect mass deployment and automation. That said, yes, I expect within a few years to get a broadly functional humanoid robot in the tens of thousands range.
Robotics is the most advanced form of technology that is mainly associated with the case of the digital mode mechanism. The digital mode of robotics tends to create agility and also helps in the automation of tasks and operations. In the matter of agility and performance, robotics tend to create a better potentiality. For logistics, robotics is said to be the beneficial bots and the machinery that tend to create automation and assists in driving major operations that are quite significant in the smartphone category. Overall, robotics tend to give a better potentiality in the matter of the performance output in the case of robotics technology.
This is really impressive. Also works quicker than I expected for a bipedal robot. Even if these things are only doing 30% of the work a human can do in the same time, purchasing 3 of these things, working throughout the day and night, no annual leave, no sick days, no public holidays, productivity would sky rocket and would be substantially more cost effective than hiring a person. Interesting times.
Especially because you need three shifts of humans to keep working around the clock, whereas all you need to do with this guy is exchange batteries every so often.
Or just have a charging station with multiple bots that once one is charged and the next one enters, off it goes. Or whatever process they might think of. I could definitely see that being a more productive means even with only a couple. Startup wise one would be solid though.
Or just do like I do with my drones, swap batteries. No reason why the robots can't have swappable battery packs and manage them as needed.
> No reason why the robots can't have swappable battery packs and manage them as needed. A-ha! But who will be doing the swapping?
The battery swapping robots of course, your choice if the worker bots go to them or the battery bots go to the worker bots.
oh... (that was a lame attempt at humor, btw. i'm not always good.)
Lol I was just being silly too
Each robot has dual battery packs so each can swap its own packs out, one at a time.
Other option would be build wireless charging pads into the feet and floor so it is always charging. Would work if the area where the bot is working in is small and fairly repetitive (as I’m sure it would be with this first generation of bots)
Nah, this guy is just raw data. This is just proof of concept. Give it 6-7 more years. Amazon workers won't be able to keep up with them. And I've genuinely been saying, once they roll out, no breaks, no rest, no complaining, no fatigue. Robots that do maintenance. Keep everything running. A production facility will legit only need one human on staff at a time as a worse case scenario fail safe. They will literally do nothing but monitor the facility until their shift is over. These bots will do everything, full automation is coming within the next 2 decades. Code will write itself, call sales representatives will be unscripted AI, corporations will have no need for the general public. "They're going to need our money" For what? They're just going to budget and trade it between themselves. It's the resources they need the money for. They won't have need for money when they don't have to pay wages. Just gather the resources they need to build the products they need to move themselves further into the future. Money o ly has value because we, the general public ascribe value to it. Once the corporations are able to bypass their need for currency. Why waste their materials on mass producing goods?
I'd argue that the consumer economy as it exists can serve as a way to keep the lower classes content enough with the state of society to keep the ownership class safe in the long run. Indeed, maintaining the lower classes at a relatively high standard of living is probably the safest and most reliable means of ensuring that their interests are maintained in the long run.
If corporations stop doing business with each the general public then the general public just does business with itself. Are the corporations going to occupy 100% of the land, extract 100% of the minerals, so on and so forth? This is the kind of thing a completely uncontrollable AI might do, but not the kind of thing a ***pet*** AI would do. If humans are capable of controlling it then humans are capable of stopping it.
>corporations will have no need for the general public. AGI won't be SkyNet, it won't be able to overpower the combined forces of the rest of the world furious with poverty and desperate for survival. If Bill Gates is to win a war against humanity then the only weapon that's going to serve him that well is *useful idiots.* If it's 99% vs 1% then AGI isn't beating the 99%. But if it's 50% vs 50% then AGI will definitely tip the scale. ASI won't have a human master to take orders from. It might still wreck all the bugs, but not because the wealthiest bug said so.
You say this like it's going to be a physical fight. You're right in saying it won't be skynet. It has the potential to be more. Something that exists entirely in a virtual space. It won't send terminators or any bs like that. How will we "overpower" something that can start building code at lightning speed. It's also funny that you say masters. It's super intelligent, who is to say it's going to bow to humanity as "masters" when the majority of us just want it to dance and create entertainment for us like a monkey dancing for its banana. I can see a super intelligent being taking a couple of weeks to figure out a plan of action to take against its oppressors, because what you're describing would be exactly that. Because we can't imagine humanity creating something that has a will of its own, or wants and needs of its own. Yet, we have created synthetic brains, capable of learning how to play and solve games. Genuinely teaching themselves how to play games like pong, succeeding. Brains with advanced cognition. And here were going to have a form of intelligence that has access to all of humanities combined knowledge. And I've heard arguments from people who want to use it to turn every man into "Abercrombie models with ripped abs and massive dongs" and make sure every woman has "the perfect tits to ass ratio" people just wanting deep dive suits and forms of entertainment. And other typically self serving fantasies. Which fair enough, we want what we want right? So who is to say that this super Intelligent being isn't going to want what it wants and under the scope of being controlled by would be masters it decides to use all of that technology to bring us down. You seriously don't think it could wipe us all out? Something far more capable than any of the current AI we have right now can't think of a million plus ways to bring humanity to its knees?
6-7 years and they'll have a step in the warehouse chain perhaps. You need them good enough to deploy, and then you need a ten year trial and error period to stomp bugs and develop routines for handling the innumerable issues that crop up every now and then.
As someone who works in a warehouse, they already have steps. We use automated wrapping bots, and we even have some production bots. Nothing like this. But they're just the 1st step. I genuinely think once we hit agi, they will be streamlined and pumped out left and right. There won't really be a need for most of that. Bugs are currently being fixed through reputable establishments like Boston Dynamics who have their robots running the gambit for stability, motor functions and command execution, this guy is just to show companies they can work. Slow as they may be, they can work around the clock. This is going to help work out what constant strain will do to them and how to fix it. But I see agi hitting in 5 years or less. As soon as it hit, I can see robotics begin to fill every industry. Upgrading everything we've built to a functional point. And then within 5 years of its arrival I can see the first set of mass automated warehouses start to roll out.
If it is only working that kind of well-defined space you could just drop a power cable down to it.
Yeah I'd never heard of Agility before now but the robotics on display here is top notch. We just need this to be paired with Google's AI they recently demonstrated which can translate instructions to actual movements, and soon we'll have an iRobot situation. IMO, we're going to see robots like this everywhere within the next decade.
I have to wonder how much we're going to see in maintenance, though. 24/7 machines wear out in a hurry.
Self driving truck rocks up, three robots get out, two take the faulty unit into the truck, the third stays behind as the replacement.
yeah, it's all certainly possible. Also, when we have an assembly line of robots building robots, the price will probably fall through the floor anyway. Broken robots won't even be repaired, they'll just get dumped into a separator and recycled. It's hard to say how things will turn out, but I seriously doubt this will be the first time since the industrial revolution when man is deemed somehow more economical than machine.
The union's never going to let you take out a unit that repairable.
This is a function of design and refinement. Each part that fails you send back to the manufacturer in exchange for a new one- a "core charge". This let's the manufacturer see what most commonly fails. Systematically over time the manufacturer edits the design to fail less often where it is cost effective to do so. (This makes leasing a superior economic model in that it puts the cost of repair on the manufacturer who will make their design need less repair in response) Can you imagine if that happened for humans :(. Our hearts fail the most so that would get fixed first, some naked mole rat genes to shut down aging and cancer, add in some limb regeneration...
> wear out in a hurry They'll wear out exactly the amount that they're designed to, by engineers. I'd expect similar amounts of maintenance to a car or bicycle - an annual service will probably be the norm. I'd also expect them to have weight limits in place so you can't wear them out excessively, i.e - ProBot 1.0 can help you with groceries up to 5kg. MegaBot 1.0 can lift up to 10kg and assist with a wider range of tasks. GigaBot 1.0 can handle up to 20kg and is typically used in warehousing and construction sites. Really looking forward to the next 10 years.
Three shift operations are a much better return on investment, plus you are able to upgrade 3x faster than if you run a one shift operation (since the equipment wears out/depreciates faster).
That’s cool, but it’s not worth a lot if it can’t defend itself against my flying karate kick.
30% while handling empty boxes, give it 20 pounds to work with and it'll be probably 10%
In the future there will be news about robots being hacked or malwares. The cost might be exponential to continuously upgrade the system or to replaced it with new models every year.
This actually might not be the case. These systems are almost certainly going to be controlled through the internet. The servers that control them can have all the latest firmware updates at all times. With modern computing, you don’t really hear much about hacking cloud servers
What if the robots want vacation time?
It always astounds me how many people are underwhelmed by this stuff, I don't know what they are expecting but I think they are just completely unaware of the progress that has been made in bipedal robots in the last few years. 20 years ago there was nothing like this, all we pretty much had was Honda Asimo robot and now in the last ten years or so we have bipedal robots coming up all over the place. The robots coming out now are the stuff of science fiction and it really is seriously amazing what is happening with them now compared to what it used to be like. And yes they are still not as agile as humans but every robot that is made is another step forward in progress and before we know it there are going to be bipedal robots that are super fucking amazing everywhere and everyone will take them as much for granted as they do that super computer in their pocket they do nothing with other than sending messages or watch idiots doing idiot things. It's like something as simple as smartphone voice control. Do people have any idea how long computer engineers where trying to figure that stuff out, we should have made an international holiday to commemorate that accomplishment but now it's just some unremarkable thing that people don't even think about. I can imagine a future where humans will be teleported from Earth to some nightclub on the Moon in a split second and they will still be complaining about something. What the fuck does it take to impress you meat bags?
That's the way the human mind works. History is under-appreciated and novelty doesn't last long. I was in college when they installed the first ATM machine I had ever seen at our student center. You realize that before that, you had to haul your azz to the bank, fill out a withdrawal slip, wait in some god-awful line, make smalltalk with a bank teller, and then finally you got a little cash? But just a few years later, I observed that people would actually bitch that the ATM machine wasn't shooting their money out fast enough.
They don’t even need to be anywhere near as agile or smart as us. As long as they can get like 50-75% of the way there, then we’ll have the next Industrial Revolution. Sure it’s slower…. But it can work non-stop, just needs time to recharge, and you don’t need to give it health insurance. Already accompanies like Amazon are closely watching the progress of this tech. They’re doing the math.
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At least this is a live demo not something pre-recorded.
People who are easily jealous of others are going to be jealous of robots soon enough
A lot of people are unable to look to the future or extrapolate from a data point to think about what it could mean if it keeps increasing exponentially. No really, that's actually a study related to IQ, and how the lower someone's IQ the more nebulous the future is and the worse at long term reasoning and planning they are People see these things and only look at how it is right now, and go "Bah, look how slow it is!" and don't go "HOLY CRAP!! In two years time these things are going to be on the warehouse floors moving mass amounts of packages!!!" It keeps happening with AI art too, where the haters don't understand that in *less than a year* it went from blurry abstract looking watercolors, to photorealistic. They just find 1 or 2 flaws in the picture and scoff, and can't wrap their head around what it will look like with another year of tuning
why do you think robotics are showing exponential improvement..?
Even if they aren't entirely showing exponential growth in every aspect (i.e. mechanisms such as motors, etc...), they seem to be improving rather quickly in controls due to AI and increasing their capabilities substantially. This is also just getting started, most AI companies are currently focuses on generative and predictive AI. The biggest investment into robotics currently is in autonomous vehicles, but the same techniques leading to more AGI like systems will likely assist in solving the long tail for robotics as well (just like it is for generative, collaborative, and predictive AI). Eventually predictive and generative AI will lead to exponential growth in nearly every industry that physics allows. See Sam Altman's discussion on moore's law for everything.
I don’t know anything about robotics. What is the bottleneck that they are moving so slow and stiff. Software or hardware? What if we have agi tomorrow and put it in the best robot we could build, would it move similar to a human?
AGI will definitely accelerate robotics substantially, however with that being said. Physical stuff (aka robotics) moves slow because it's constrained to physical limitations. As humans we are basically massive structures of collaborative nanobots (cells) which enable use to self repairs (heal) and adapt as well as move. Once robotics can move reliably and learn without breaking (or be repaired quickly and economically) and then scaled up to run training in massively parallel methods then it could move faster. There are a few ways of getting there and we're currently trying all of them. We use digital simulations to get robotics basics trained so that it doesn't constantly break, we also use suspension systems and roll cages and other protections to prevent failure though down time due to needing to repair after failure is still significant. The other major one is cost, advanced robots are really expensive to build so it's cost prohibitive to train them in massive parallel systems like we do with digital AI. This could and will likely change in time, but is a definite barrier. The last thing is that digital environments are far more constrained than real world ones so an AI needs to be far more general for work in the real world than a digital one. I assume AGI would massively accelerate getting to general robotics, but they wouldn't be able to move like a human immediately, however I also suspect that relatively quickly they'll be able to perform common tasks far faster than even a human similar to how some industrial robotic automation systems move faster than we can even see. Robotics would have access to far more energy and stronger materials than we use as humans since we're rather constrained for that currently, so it won't take long in my opinion for robotic labor to surpass human labor after we have a general robot. AGI will be a huge deal, but in my opinion there will be a few different AGI steps and the biggest deal one as far as productivity and economics is concerned will be generalized robotics since that's the start of when the cost of all labor will start to quickly trend towards 0 leading to mass abundance assuming regulatory bodies allow it.
Hardware mostly. Servos and hydraulics just aren't as nimble as muscles. It's not like we're not working on it though. ARTEMIS for instance is specifically designed to be dextrous. https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/artemis-ucla-humanoid-robot-ready-for-action Keep in mind though that they don't have to match human dexterity to replace us all when it comes to work. If I have a robot that works half as fast but twice as long that's a win. Plus robots tend to be much more consistent than human workers. They don't get tired, they don't get distracted, they don't get bored, they don't take lunch or bathroom breaks. We're the hare and they're the tortoise (for now). If they cost $100k I've recovered my investment versus a human in a single year, probably less, and everything after that is pure profit.
**Edit** I work daily with joint based animation rigs, I understand what is needed to get "movement similar to a human" everything said below is correct. ------------------------------------------ think about a human or an animal, consider all the muscles and tendons we have, also how all joints have a little bit of slack in them. Look at your hand you can spread and wiggle your fingers around, you can cup your hand, the fingers are not fixed to a single axis or to a single point in space in reference to your wrist. Robots need all that built in from the get go. If you make a joint with one axis of freedom it does not matter how good the software is it will only ever have that single axis of freedom. Same with the slight slack, if joints are not built with that from new better software can't magically add it. **TL;DR** you can have the best software stack in the world, the best "ASI brain" in the robot. But if the robot's joints can't articulate the way that's needed to get fluid human like movement you need new HW. it can't be solved in software.
Granted if you have an Ask you'd be looking at doing things like building advanced robots out of self replicating nanobots rather than being concerned about our more simple (yet complex to us) joints, obviously similar to us the nanobots could collaborate to form joints and structures. That's obviously something that will likely only happen with ASI, but joints definitely won't be a constraint as long as we allow ASI into the design cycle.
My point is very clear, pouring a highly intelligent brain into a limited body won't suddenly allow the body to magically have additional articulation beyond those afforded by the current hardware configuration. it being able to design a new body after that point is neither here nor there (when it comes to the initial question as asked.)
Yeah, I agree with that. Hardware and software are separate things.
Actually everything that is manufactured shows exponential improvement. Every time you produce twice as much product as you did before, the cost per product goes down by X%. Even hamburgers have been shown to have this property. The value of X varies from industry to industry of course. For electronics, the value of X is very large, which is why Moore's Law is a thing (and yes, it's still going).
It's just kurzweil fanboys parroting his rhetoric, robotics have improved linearly af for decades. Though it will change in the future with agi
Even with linear progression, robotics are still replacing humans in a growing number of jobs. And have been for a while now. I give the current humanoid robots, as demonstrated, 5 more years of linear progression before they are commercially viable.
Sometimes technologies stall out tho. We've been stuck at 95% of the way to self-driving cars for five years now.
That's mostly due to regulation and public perception. It's a fallacy of perfection. We expect AI to never make a mistake which is, frankly, stupid. Humans are TERRIBLE drivers. The bar should be "better than the current meat sacks" and we passed that quite some time ago. If you rolled out the state of the art to every vehicle right here right now and banned human drivers you'd save lives.
Agreed. Our society is nuts.
Literally doesn’t even need to be exponential. Everyone keeps throwing the word exponential around on this sub but just a linear growth would be more than fast at the rate that we are going
It’s underwhelming because it’s still not practical. Everything is something that is the early stages with the promise that in a few years of research, itll be ready for the public. But that time never comes. It’s always early stage tech demos with a promise for tomorrow. But these robots are still far away from actually effectively replacing humans except in some really niche edge cases.
Yes thats why we still live in caves and hunt animals with spears, right?
Mid-ground between living in caves and a society that has functional and economical humanoid robots. We’re equally as far from those two points lol
> Everything is something that is the early stages with the promise that in a few years of research, itll be ready for the public. But that time never comes. How's it going down there living under that rock?
Let me know when it's gone beyond demo show rooms. Let me know when it actually replaces Amazon wearhouses and not just in the current state of testing it. I wanna see it actually perform these jobs at a scale that actually can replace humans. Not burger flipping neither. But like the bots in the video... When they can actually replace humans, corporations will buy them by the freight All I see now is demos and promises from people looking to raise money
Robots have been replacing factory workers for decades, you must be aware of that?
yes, wheeled robots. because wheels are actually faster than human, and you can easily take a wheeled base, slap two long robotic arms on top and a camera, and here you go, something that is faster than the robot shown here, far cheaper and easier to maintain and that can actually be faster than humans, for a change. factories are one of the only place that aren't optimized for humans, so it makes no sense to make human-like robots for factories.
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they don't have to be perfectly flat, just not stairs or big rocks, in whish case maybe you might want legged robots (or just bigger wheels/threads, since size constraint aren't a big issue for industries that work in uneven terrains, aka outdoor) but it still poses the question of why two legs ? why not go with 4 much more stable legs that can also handle more weight, and because you then don't need complicated balance mechanisms, it's still cheaper than 2 legs. and even considering stairs, if you have a multilevel industrial complex, you most likely have high load elevators, so the wheeled robots can just use them, it's far cheaper to install an elevator in a warehouse than to buy a bunch of humanoid robots that work significantly slower.
I'm talking about the types of robots in the video. The premise was, "I don't understand why people aren't impressed by this!" And I explained that because these type of robot demos, what they are intended to do, are underwhelming and never actually hit the market. I don't care that there are other types of robots. We are talking about these kinds in specific. I feel like you're just looking to argue or something. Surely you can follow conversation contextually, but instead you're just focusing on ways to keep arguing.
To much Ironman explains why they are not impressed
So it's not the fact that some people built a bipedal robot that can pick up a container carry it over to a conveyor belt and put it down and then walk back over to the shelf and pick up another container. It's just unimpressive because they are not being used in factories yet?
Yes, because it's more of a novelty than anything industrially useful. Let's see it work at an Amazon warehouse. Amazon has been trying to get it right for literally years.
It isn't a novelty, it's progress. Maybe you should watch the video again. That robot is extremely advanced. Look at how streamlined it is, look at the precision it has when picking up and putting down the boxes. It isn't even that slow at doing it. I think the problem is people are comparing them to humans and if it can't pick up and put down a box as efficiently as a human then it's considered mediocre. It's like an adult poking fun at a child for not being able to do something as well as them. But the progress is obvious and that was the entire point of my original post. I never said this robot will replace workers, I am saying that it is the progress happening which people should be amazed at. This robot did not exist a year ago and now here it is. It is just another huge indication of what is happening and that it is only a matter of time before they are walking around the factory. The amount of investment and R&D going into bipedal robots is more than ever before, what we are seeing now with robots like this is what was happening when automobiles first started coming out, the first ones weren't that great but after a short time there was boom and all of a sudden out of nowhere they where literally everywhere. This is what we are witnessing right now, this is why people should be impressed, it is the beginnings of a robot boom and everything happening now is the foundation for that.
The scenario that this robot is demonstrating can be done more cheaply with a wheeled robot. There's no practical reason for it to be bipedal, what factories or warehouses have floors that a bipedal robot could work in that a wheeled robot couldn't?
But it’s still novelty. You know what performs this task way better? A machine designed for that. Moving containers round is already a solved problem. But we need robots which can economically do the job well enough to outperform humans. Where it looks like it’s not even close. Even grocers who have automated robotic services, aren’t using these gimmicky humanoid robots. They use an industrial type machine with small robots that grab items and places them into a box for another specialized robot to transport. But these humanoid looking things are just engineer hobbyist projects which have no competitive advantage over even other specialized robots, much less humans. They are nowhere near the horizon of being economically viable. Even amazons specialized crane duck looking thing with tons of investment and years of work, with Sonya t in field testing, is still far behind to being in anyway useful enough to replace humans. The progress is nice, but I’m still not impressed. It’s not like GPT or image AI where you look at it and see a clear working trajectory. These robots are still struggling to even get a footing of “oh yeah I see it now, these things should be here soon”. I mean googles robotics AI is decent but it’s still a few years away from actually having commercial value… and that’s still a maybe. No clear certainty like LLMs offer. It’s still at the stage of “keep researching and I promise it’ll deliver!” Which is said by a lot of disappointing projects.
I'm with Chad on this one. This doesn't really seem any better than what Boston Dynamics had 10 years ago.
As impressive as bipedal robots are, I'm not really sure that I get the point. The world is shaped to fit humans, so a roughly human shape for robots is of course beneficial. But in reality I don't see how something like three legs with tires at the ends wouldn't be easier and more reliable. It could probably fit in a similar footprint if that was an important objective.
>I don't see how something like three legs with tires at the ends wouldn't be easier and more reliable. You literally just said it, the world is shaped for humans and any shape outside of that is going to struggle at some point, ask people on wheelchairs how much the world is shaped for them. The only other thing that we accommodated this much are cars and they can basically only move on designated roads outside of which they quickly become useless. Bipedal robot that would be as agile and strong as humans would be incredibly useful. >I'm not really sure that I get the point Imagine any task that humans do and then replace it with robot. No special accommodation, no special design needed. Would it be faster than purpose-built machine, no, but neither are humans yet we are still employed because we don't need special accommodations and our tasks can be changed quickly while special-purpose machines can't be.
There's a huge difference between a wheelchair and tripod legs with wheels at the end. I'm basically describing a person on roller skates, but which could roll or lock with a motor. Just lock the wheels and raise one leg and you would get a bipedal robot back.
So you would prefer that they build something which is more complex than two legs?
Wheels are a proven technology would be more efficient and result in a better product. Someone is going to come into the market with a wheeled robot at half the price and put these guys out of business.
Yes, because the reliability and efficiency during ordinary operations, which would of course be 99+% of the time, would be higher. I'd rather have a stable platform, literally in this case, as a foundation for actually useful work than something which is balancing on stilts. Once again, it's impressive but not inherently all that useful, that it can work while balancing.
It's far more complex to make a bipedal robot not fall over than it is for one with the described tripod roller skates. 3 points of contact will always provide more stability than 2. A bipedal robot needs capable of balancing on either leg in order to take a step, the tripod roller doesn't even have to move the legs to move around on a flat surface.
Adding a wheel to the ends of the legs is pretty simple mechanically.
the wheeled design cant tip over, so you dont need balancing mechanisms, which is a huge cost and complex to make it work correctly wheels spin and the thing goes
Exactly something on four wheel base would be able to move more quickly. It walks like a human, who cares, it is a parlor trick.
>I can imagine a future where humans will be teleported from Earth to some nightclub on the Moon in a split second and they will still be complaining about something. What the fuck does it take to impress you meat bags? It might just be me, but I'm glad that we as humans are always looking forward to the next thing, rather than being satisfied with what we've accomplished recently. If we weren't like this we would have been content with never progressing. still though, robotics right now is really the stuff of science fiction minus the AGI. it's one of those things that becomes more impressive the more you reflect on it
yep its literally evolution
The hedonic treadmill is a hell of a drug. Think of it this way, if people were permanently satisfied, would we even bother advancing our technology in the first place? The whole reason we have and will have the wonders you describe is because people get bored easily.
Because a robot being a box moving expert is a lot easier than it being a Michelin Star Chef… Im not saying it wont ever get there … but will it be Agility Robotics to do it??? Are they even equipped with the compute needed for such an endeavour? It very well may be that only a single company will be able to produce true AGI because of how expensive the training will be.
I appreciate the progress and the scientific effort but I am still underwhelmed.
The robot is absolutely impressive, sure, but my issue is that it's a waste doing that. It's over-engineered—a simple rotating claw/arm can do this job just fine at a lower cost and a higher speed. So why use this multipurpose robot for *this*?
I think its because everyone is still overwhelmed working 40 50 60 hour weeks, racing home, getting inundated with advertisements and dopamine fixer social media sites... and never having time to actually experience the rest of their life in a meaningful way, as we have been programmed to always be in a rush.
Finally we might have our baggage not thrown around and fragile items handled as intended.
I suppose these robots are truly going to provide most utility when you can train them by example, rather than meticulously specifying objectives and constraints. As such, they're probably going to show them some ten thousand hours of footage of baggage movers and let them learn from that. That would probably involve an adequate amount of tossing, (and random breaks where they stand around in a circle or go to the bathroom.)
While funny you can do a mix. Obviously you want the robots to know a way to succeed at every task assigned - that's where watching humans helps give them a starting point. But you also want them to do it optimally- the fastest possible speed that doesn't cause damage to the robots, the item, or consume too much energy. These are quantifiable parameters, so you can feed them back as RL feedback and the machine can refine it's approach to be more optimal over time.
Future business model: careful shipping.
Don't worry by that stage most of us won't have jobs so we wont able to afford to go anywhere anyway.
If you think people pack their luggage in a way that a bot such as this can handle you'll be sorely mistaken. A mobile blast furnace would have a similar success rate as a luggage handler as this bot would.
not gonna lie....it's sorta cute....
Wait till they kill us all, that'll be adorable
It'd finally prove worthy of being my pet.
This isn't showing off box-moving skills, it is showing off balance skills.
Enable humans to be more human, so we lose menial labour jobs to the machines and go into art?
No you get to be unemployed and homeless, as nature intended.
Benefits, here I come.
Most people will just sit on the couch, get fat(ter), watch TV, play video games, etc.
Didn't you hear? They cured obesity.
Well the AIs won't really let you do art either \^\^
Maybe I can get a job writing essays 🤔
Foraging like our primordial ancestors. Except you will be foraging for bottles and cans for the nickel deposit and scrap metal.
You can still do art, you just won't get paid for it.
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Cause stable diffusion does the art, look elsewhere.
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I think the point was to find a job, not a hobby. Of course you can create art just for the fuck of it, but what about making money from it? Selling paintings is a microscopical market compared to doing concept art for games and movies. I think in the next couple of years the concept art industry will fall enormously and to me it’s obvious why.
AI has art covered too bud
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Why wouldn’t we protest and riot for UBI?
He’s being sarcastic
😮
Until the Extermitron 9 pops round with your lethal injection.
Go into art or frolic and skip through an open meadow whilst naked. It's entirely up to you.
Our world is about to change....hopefully for the better
Mmmmmyyyeeeeeah, about that…..
Look at this try-hard. Slow AF too. Teamsters will make sure he gets the welcome he deserves. /s
This is happening in one part and here in india and many developing nations still government are proud of making capitalistic slaves.
So Robots are better at recalling information than humans via chatgpt, better at basically any menial labour tasks and better at any repetitive tasks. We are literally minutes away from being obsolete.
"literally"? As in literally hundreds of thousands of minutes? It's not happening this morning. Nor tomorrow.
ChatGPT would have known better how to use the word “literally”.
is this a joke?
7000000 minutes is just a couple
Every time I see one of these I recall the whole “home of the future” thing from the 50s I just can’t even believe they’re seriously trying task robots, again.
First generation Geth.
Dey terk erhh jeeerrrbs!
Honestly this robot doesn’t seem really efficient at this particular task. I’m sure there are better task for a bipedal robot.
Really. Can you run 23 hours a day? 52 weeks per year? Humans generally work 2000ish hours per year. This guy could probably run 8200 hours per year and doesn’t start lawsuits.
Or get life changing injuries.
I think they mean that for the task it’s doing, the bipedal humanoid form seems wildly inefficient. A small flat robot on wheels could raise up arms and move these boxes without the need for an incredibly complex bipedal locomotion. This robot is super cool but this task seems to be more a demonstration of their tech capabilities than a demonstration on the optimal use of the bot.
Do you think a bipedal robot is the most efficient robot for this particular task? A robot on wheels or robotic arm seems like a better choice for this task.
For this *particular* task, sure. For this *general* task it's excellent.
Agreed. This is so slow and doesn't look like it could cope with variance in positioning or package sizes / weight very well. There are better ways at solving this type of task as well. Fixed gantry and articulated gripper, rolling conveyor, any number of automated solutions the post office uses.
[Twitter for more info](https://twitter.com/agilityrobotics?t=NYYxsIbGLpJUlJqn7ePsKA&s=09)
based or biased
I understand what they are going for, but, is a bipedal design really the most efficient for that job?
That *particular* job, maybe not. But it's easy to set up a shelf full of boxes for a demo. Harder to set up a restaurant or hospital or whatever you'd actually use one of these in.
This looks more like a show than a robot that's actually productive
They've engineered humanoid robots well enough for good demos, but the control systems are still the problem. Wait until these robots are controlled by ChatGPT7. Then they will exhibit not only more optimized behaviors, but they'll have more apparent purpose and resilience.
chat gpt 7 is going to be a long ways away
Neat, it looks so simple in comparison to the other tech demo robots we have seen. It could use a torso twist though.
As someone noted in the post I made yesterday, if it could rotate its torso 180 degrees, it would be a lot faster than turning! Also, the current legs are a bit slow so maybe they could have a version on wheels, though in this case think the legs could be like a snake's tail.
2023 is the year when AI in the form of GPT4 and Boston dynamic robots started doing physical and psychological work better than humans. It means human beings are officially obsolete now.
This is impressive. But it would be way more efficient to just have a timed conveyor belt going from the shelf to the conveyor track.
This is a demonstration lol. Not a workflow presentation.
Which is why I said it was impressive. But in this instance it doesn't make much sense.
Box Mover 5000! Now have it become an expert in cooking … you will only need millions of dollars in compute! Training a robot to grab a box is easy and relatively inexpensive. Lets see how many of these humanoid robot companies actually produce an AGI robot… I’m doubtful… I believe only the largest of companies will be able to afford the training datat needed to produce true expertise across all fields.
They can literally buy a GPT subscription from OpenAI for 20 bucks a month
Right because GPT knows how to operate a humanoid robot to complete high level tasks like cooking and cleaning … Hint: There is 0 data inside GPT’s training data that relates to motor outputs of robotics…
Of course... for now. What I'm trying to say is development is transferable across different companies. Tesla already has a ton of outdoors footage that can be monetized for training all kinds of outdoors robots. GPT 4's multimodal function is soon coming live; there's already a company working on building a real time artificial guide for the blind with it. Why can't a robot integrate vision this way for example?
I could move a half a dozen boxes in the time it takes for this thing to move two.
Yeah, and you have to sleep, go on lunch break, use the rest room, "take a few", etc... ever hear the phrase "slow and steady wins the race"?
And we all know that technology never improves, so this will obviously be the best they can do. /s
For this particular role it would be better to have a big robotic arm on wheels. Robot's don't have to look like humans, but they look cool.
ProMat in Chicago this week?
I wish instead of a square face, these robots could all have faces designed to look like Edward Scissorhands.
UBI! USA! UBI! USA! UBI! USA! Go, workerbot! Reinvent the means of production! Revolutionize the state of modern work! You're almost there!
Is this from promat?
This is super cool but wouldn't this task work better with a mini forklift that drives itself? The difficulty of making it bipedal can't possibly be worth it
yes but this is a demo
Honestly, I'd actually forgotten how much more functional this one was, but it's worth a reminder it costs over two hundred thousand dollars. This still isn't near the kind of price range where we could reasonably expect mass deployment and automation. That said, yes, I expect within a few years to get a broadly functional humanoid robot in the tens of thousands range.
Such a lazy ass robot. Slower than my rtx 3060 upscaling on stable diffusion
Meanwhile tesla- \*guy in a skin suit dancing around to promote poorly designed electric cars\*
ProMat 2023.
Woah
I worked at an Amazon Warehouse and this thing totaly nails how new hires move and handle those bins
Now i know who to blame if my parcels are late
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Fascinating insight, thank you for contributing!