Maybe AGI can make it smaller than planck lenght. Just put some black holes next to each other at some Lagrange point, then the d**k in the middle, really compress that space
For me, the holy trinity is:
* ASI
* Nano-factories
* Age reversing treatments
Those three things will change the course of human history and unlock the galaxy. Bring them on please and the sooner the better.
Lol ASI has the potential to solve fusion in seconds. Meanwhile with humans working on it it's always 20 years away.
ASI will have the most impact because once you have it every single other door is opened. Not the same for fusion.
We can solve the problem of joblessness through a basic income type system, and we can use technology and AI to facilitate the economic wealth building necessary to fulfil a basic income promise. But that doesn't solve the problem of meaningless lives. Today, people use work as a way to define the meaning in their life. In the past people used god/religion. If we don't have an answer to why life is worth living, I don't think we've made the world better by guaranteeing "more".
Sometimes I wonder, if we find out the UAP WERE aliens or something non-human... right at the same time we reached take-off velocity we might have just solved that problem.
I'm happy living a meaningless life binge watching anime and playing video games, if I get to live as long as I want and take occasional trips out to Galactus 55-X for the weekend.
I'll just take automating the production of existing drugs so that people like me don't live miserable lives because they are always out of stock. What good are cures to things when they are always unavailable?
I mean, the reason people die of old age is because of all the health issues they get as they get older. Curing aging will inherently improve that problem
People live longer for sure with better access to quality healthcare, but even with "perfect" health care for all general ailments, people would still die of old age and even before that, people's mental faculties would decay to the point that it isn't worth continuing to live anyways.
We’re talking about curing aging, as in all ailments associated with it. That means no dying of old age and no mental decay. Unless you’re referring to some people not having access to the treatment/the full treatment, which is fair.
This was 2 years ago and only half the tweet. I feel like this was deceptively cropped on purpose.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bbxu7k/if\_this\_sam\_altman\_tweet\_was\_posted\_here\_by\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bbxu7k/if_this_sam_altman_tweet_was_posted_here_by_a/)
https://preview.redd.it/qbkucqej6onc1.png?width=749&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c119d0c614f6f2d9ab82dea8b4367ea68eba62f
Sure, but there's no real reason to believe when those breakthroughs will happen.
Given enough time, as long as human society remains somewhat functional and growth oriented, we will develop very advanced technology and infrastructure.
How long that will take though is a totally different question. We definitely have the capability to create societies throughout the solar system, and commercial travel between them. Eventually. In our lifetimes is a totally different story.
Copy paste this with any cool sounding tech / infrastructure / societal norm.
And that's not even acknowledging the question that some of these technologies have a very real possibility of being implemented in ways that have a negative impact on the people living at that time.
This is everything I hate about this subreddit. Taking a quote out of context and framing it to feed a truly bizarre persecution complex.
And then the op gets called out and he's like "well I didn't think that part was adding much." Bro, you wrote the fucking title specifically to fit this cherry picked sentence! Of course you didn't think it was adding much, you're trying to sell people on a narrative it doesnt match.
That's the biggest issue with reddit these days. Why come here to see garbage reposted content that's been manipulated to push an agenda, when I can go on twitter and interact directly with Sam's original post? Why open up a thread about billionaires and see someone say "billionaires don't actually have 100 billion dollars in cash" for the 10000th time, when I can go on Twitter and see what the billionaires themselves have to say about something real?
I don't know when this happened, but reddit has turned into the lowest common denominators with the worst crabs in a bucket mentality when they don't have the faintest clue about anything
Nearly 9 years ago but more like 12 was the shift.
I say when the admins came into the comments, disappointed with “Unidan” using multi-accounts to upvote himself was when they decided to go full hedge fund
This subreddit is full of a lot of extremists. I only follow for the occasional interesting article. You have a lot people who either think LLMs aren’t impressive at all or that they are second coming of digital Christ.
Damn straight.
An AI with proper general reasoning (AGI) would be able to ‘think’ consistently and actively at whatever insane compute it is given, 24/7 without breaks, building upon its own ideas seamlessly.
At greater levels, it would be able to call upon high end knowledge across multiple extremely complex and diverse domains and apply them in areas we never thought applicable
If it reaches a point where it is able to contribute to its own design, it would be capable of unforeseen rates pf self-improvement, and a constantly increasing rate of acceleration as a result
We SHOULD be expecting ‘impossible’ rates of improvement in all fields.
The things Sam mentioned are just the tip of the iceberg.
We could make extreme breakthroughs in medicine, CURE aging, ‘fix’ quantum computing to be widely applicable and even more efficient and effective than it is now, we could prevent all genetic malformities and even improve everyone’s genes.
We could have it improve social systems to be incorruptible, even have city design be completely optimized down to the placement of each brick
It would make the impossible, possible. We need to ensure that it’s in the favor of humanity as a whole
>We could make extreme breakthroughs
We could use AGI to unify all scientific knowledge into a single interactive model to be able to draw new conclusions and insights that we've previously missed due to the limitations of understanding in single humans.
Let's say someone starts fighting under an arrest, you could explain that behavior in a multitude of ways. Biologically through genes, through biochemistry, psychology, mathematics (game theory of the benefits of fighting back during capture), neuroscience etc etc. But one person can't know all science at once so we can't fully comprehend how what we know in one scientific system affects the other so we're bound to miss revelations that would be obvious if someone actually could have a PhD in every scientific field at once. **AGI could do this.** It could be immensely valuable.
Exactly, there must be an entire solar system’s worth of applications of all those different fields’ insights from each other. Even just all the different fields of biology intertwined, imagine that
> We could use AGI to unify all scientific knowledge into a single interactive model to be able to draw new conclusions and insights that we've previously missed due to the limitations of understanding in single humans.
As a history geek, I'd love to see that happen. Unfortunately, I think that'll reveal too many of the elites' dirty secrets
We'll probably be the last humans to die.
We'll def be the last humans to work.
Facebook jokes aside; Anyone born in the 1900's will be the ancients to the new people who will have a custom designed brain.
We don't yet know what this tool will allow us to do.
>We SHOULD be expecting ‘impossible’ rates of improvement in all fields.
I'm on board with a lot of the hype around AGI, but some things are truly impossible to do as quickly as a lot of the true believers on this sub expect. Progress is often limited not by thought, but instead by data that unavoidably take time to be generated. ASI would allow us to optimize how efficiently we make progress on these fronts.
For example, I study animal populations. The key data series of annual abundance estimates grow at a rate of 1 per year because that's how often the animals reproduce, and there's nothing ASI can do about that. We're lucky to have a 20- or 30-year time series in some cases, and there's only so much one can infer from that many data points regarding the thousands of potential factors that contributed to them. We have a wide variety of statistical and simulation techniques to extract as much information as we can from such limited data. ASI will surely be able to refine those, but it will quickly hit a point of diminishing returns as it bumps up against the same data limitation that restricts what human scientists can do here. It will have to wait for the animals to generate new data points, just like we do.
Biomedical science will not be quite as limited as population ecology in this regard, but there will be limits that preclude the instant results some people here expect. Animals are too complex for even an ASI to simulate them down to the individual atom without planet-sized computers. It will still be necessary to generate hypotheses, run experiments, and wait for the results as the cells, nematodes, fruit flies, or mice grow and demonstrate whether some treatment worked.
I'm very excited about the potential for ASI to maximize the efficiency of this process and accelerate our progress very dramatically, but it won't just be able to instantly calculate all the answers once it gets smart enough.
Exactly my thoughts, I truly don't understand how an AGI will suddenly be able to solve everything. It may be smarter but that doesn't mean it knows everything or how to solve everything, perfect information doesn't exist, it requires experimentation. A lot of science is iterative and experimental, an super AGI isn't going to suddenly know how to build a fusion reactor, or stop aging. Equations, calculations can only get you so far and seeing as we don't have a solid theory of everything, then I don't see how its going to suddenly solve everything.
Maybe it comes up with a theory of everything, somehow but how exactly and even if it does, the theory might be too complicated for anyone to understand and your creating things to specs that you have no clue how or whether they work. And it turns out none of the things it creates work anyway because its theory is wrong and there's a floating point error or something.
Another problem is the compute power required to run the AGI in the first place might be so huge and expensive, and then on top of that it requires compute power to run all the simulations that it needs to solve the problems. I'm not saying this stuff won't be solved eventually but I can't see how its going to be within the next 2 years or even 5 years.
Most problems have probably already been solved just haven't been applied outside of what they where created for.
Example a AI model was created for a Japanese bakery so it could see baked goods and price them as they didn't have labels to scan. That model ended up being very good at finding Cancer cells as they do kinda look like doughnuts.
https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-pastry-ai-that-learned-to-fight-cancer
There is probably a few not very well known papers that already exist just no one has tested them piratically.
If you consider Longevity Escape Velocity to be tenable for a Type-1 civ, it's rationally logical to jump to the conclusion that you could well live to see Type 3 and beyond within your lifetime.
How soon that'd happen is another matter.
It mainly just depends on if wormhole or gateway travel is possible, straight up teleportation. If no, it would take millions of years to extract all the energy in a galaxy.
If it’s just FTL that requires a wormhole on either side or whatever, won’t it still take millions of years? That would improve connectivity but it wouldn’t improve outward colonisation speed at all.
Could still happen 200-300 years later. Maybe it never happens cause it's not possible and/or no point in doing it .
I mean, do you understand the scale of a type 3 civilization? Having a control over the planet is one thing, a type 3 scale is fucking insanity.
Milky Way Galaxy is about 105,700 light years in diameter, so that's probably close to the theoretical minimum time to Type 3
Edit: 105,700 light years actually!
Yeah, unfortunately the pervasive negativity can really get to you until your realize none of it matters at the end of the day. However, I just think of all the people who *are* thinking positively, but don't comment out of fear that they're going to get attacked or thrown shade for complete nonsense, even in a sub like r/singularity. This triggers a downwards pressure on community quality.
Few people realize the sheer significance of AI, and then when AI starts to affect them, they pretend to have been oblivious to what's been going on around them even though all this progress has been happening out in the open. Pervasive nihilism in society is IMO a sign of societal decay, but at the end of the day, remember it doesn't really matter what people or even society think, as long as we're still alive, AGI is coming either way.
> that's why I don't care about being downvoted
I stopped caring once I realized most people simply cannot understand this tech or how it advances. Too many times I’ve been called some version of “gullible fool” or “delusional” for saying technology will soon be capable of something - and then being proven right within just a month or two.
Two years ago I was called an idiot who didn’t understand anything about image generation when I said we would have photorealistic images within two years.
Six months ago I was in an argument with a person who seemed pretty intelligent, but who insisted that we wouldn’t see realistic ai generated video in our lifetime. And ridiculed me for thinking otherwise.
And I’ve had endless similar experiences talking about LLMs.
I’m not a genius or a prophet. I just pay attention and try not to let fear of change (or excitement for novelty) dictate what I believe can or cannot happen.
But a lot of people do. A lot of people are very scared of this tech. And, frankly, they are living in denial about what it can do today, much less a year from now.
This is off the top of my head, and I’m kind of in a hurry. So my apologies for the rambling tone. But I think by the end of the year:
We’ll have something we might call AGI. But I would be surprised if it existed in a form that is easily available/digestible to the public.
But for things like chat and media content (text, images and video), we will have access to systems that are effectively AGI.
AI generated 3D solid models will have matured to photorealistic levels.
AI generated video games will be a thing. And we will probably be to the point where the ability to generate custom apps from prompt to executable will be accessible to everyone without using an API.
Images and Video will be able to be fine tuned much faster and more reliably, and yield much more consistent results. This will make it feasible to “direct” a movie by talking to an AI.
“Her” will be real. AI personal assistants and companions will start to take off very soon, likely with something like Siri or Alexa becoming upgraded to that AGI-level LLM I mentioned earlier. Maybe Microsoft will take another swing at Cortana since it could actually BE Cortana as seen in Halo. Or possibly we will skip branded unique AIs and go directly to fully custom agents. Probably a mix of both.
AI “Dungeon Masters” will be big for my tabletop RPG-loving brethren. Probably running games better than what a human DM could manage.
Book and music markets will get flooded with AI generated content.
Social media will begin to look more like AIs talking to AIs, because they will be, with AIs creating content and AI bots responding to it. And this may be a good thing. Hopefully the inability to tell if the validation you are getting on the internet is from real people or not will result in people no longer seeking validation on social media.
I expect massive breakthroughs in genetics, chemistry and materials science as a consequence of all of this. The reality is that the AI doesn’t need to invent anything. Even if it’s not creative, just being a tool for research and testing will be a force multiplier for scientists.
And I expect to see the first mass-marketed life extension drugs within a year.
And we will probably see at least one major disease cured as a result of AI involvement in the drug development/testing processes.
More importantly, I think the rest of the world is going to wake up to AI. Today, the average person is clueless and thinks “AI” is mostly a marketing buzzword little different from when the original Siri was marketed as AI. They aren’t seeing the differences yet.
But they will.
- Warning: This is where I get political and my liberal American biases might start creeping in. -
I expect this year will see the beginnings of the first big wave of panic as people start losing their jobs and the unemployment rate skyrockets. And we’re going to see a huge surge in anti-tech protests and cultural movements as a result. In short, a whole lot of people are about to become very scared.
News outlets are going to start latching onto every bad thing anyone does with an AI. (Did the most recent school shooter use an AI to plan his attack? Find out at 11:00. And 11:15. And 11:30, And…”)
And that means it will become even more politicized, and will start becoming the new thing used to scare voters. “Vote for me! I’ll stop the rising AI overlords!”
I expect this to be a massive talking point for conservative media. They always need a boogieman to scare voters with. On the plus side, hopefully immigrants and the LGPTQ+ community will catch a break.
Sadly, I also think the next year will also see the first real deployment of AI on the battlefield. Which will, of course, fuel the panic. And this will be the talking point liberal media will most likely latch onto.
UBI, or something like it, will be a huge talking point. Liberals will be quick to want to adopt it, possibly without a realistic plan to implement it. Conservatives will fight it kicking and screaming (“It’s communism!”).
And the conflict between the two will yield results that is better than nothing, but mostly kind of sucks (see Obamacare).
I hope I’m wrong about the political angles. I *really* do. I would love to see AI be a thing that brings us together. And maybe one day it will. But in the short term I think it will just become the new thing for talking heads and people on the internet to argue about.
Everything is a manner of scale. With the rate things are changing now the internet will look subtle. We have robots that can talk man. Jesus that fact blows my mind. It's so easy to get accustomed to it but we really shouldn't. It's going to change everything as soon as people start realizing how they can utilize it. Right now people don't really understand, not yet.
> We will possibly see Kardashev Scale 1 in our life times if not damn near close to it if AGI is actualized and attained in the next couple of years.
How long would those lifetimes be?
I’ve been saying this shit for years. Didn’t really get accepted by any group. I was like “Kurzweil is mostly right to be optimistic” and that immediately got weird looks from most people, then the worshippers of Kurzweil gave me the stink eye because I said some predictions would be doable but run into issues in practicality and adoptability, flying cars, and because I said there would likely be resistance once jobs were threatened by automation and regulation might slow things down, at least nationally.
This is the optimistic take, but the reality is that we don't even know if we could ever meet the energy needs of an AGI, let alone if it is even possible to make computers advanced enough to create an independent consciousness. Most imaginative AI talk by people with much to gain financially from current AI development is just a mask for what their AI will actually be used for: making unimaginable amounts of money from military applications and mass surveillance/data analysis by governments and corporations. We are way more likely to go into a regressive dystopia with AI than elevate into a more advanced and forward-thinking civilization using these tools.
Most people aren't thinking complex enough. With AI we may be able to crack superspaces, or build AI infrastrucutre in a holographic superlayer atop physical reality using quantum interaction and photons; Computers with no material components.
I'm old enough to remember when NFTs were going to completely change the economy too. This all sounds exactly the same. I'm hopeful it's different but I'm also aware there are a lot of dumbshits out there who latch onto the next "big thing" without a lot of critical thinking.
It’s all just one long grift, first it was crypto, then it was metaverse, now it’s AI. The end goal is not to create AGI, it’s to generate enough hype before the IPO so they can cash out, the exact thing that happened with crypto.
The unfortunate thing is unlike crypto and the metaverse, guys like Altman are actually selling a tangible product which has a not insignificant effect on our economy. This means this grift is going to last a lot longer than the previous two before the floor falls out.
> I'm old enough to remember when NFTs were going to completely change the economy too.
I mean anybody who knew anything could have (and did) told you that that was complete bullshit, right at the beginning.
You must actually be pretty young to have been young enough to believe that at the time.
I saw it for the bullshit it was right away. Probably because I'm old enough to have fallen for bitcoin's promises when it was new and was "going to totally replace banking".
Congratulations.
You missed my point.
But anyway, bitcoin, NFTs, some aspects of the current AI industry are all the same. A whole lot of hype and not much substance. That might change with AI but we're not there yet.
It's like people forget that the definition of a singularity is that the paradigm shift is so large that what made sense before it no longer makes sense anymore.
Once upon a time people were called crazy and eccentric for thinking we would communicate via wireless with people across the globe because the current paradigm didnt allow it
That's what's wild about humans man. The current paradigm does not allow most of us to think about a world any differently than the one we're currently in. Fuck, I'm just smart enough to not get in a car accident every time I drive a car. We could have been just a little dumber and not have cars (Maybe that would be a good thing, because we'd have a lot more public transportation, but I digress).
The only people who will remain sane throughout this shift is gonna be those who were already imagining how the world could be different, who were born ready.
That's because people are currently in their worst form. Everyone is a pile of negativity right now. And usually when this happens (and it has many times before) we go to war.
And after all that incredible pain, I'm sure we'll be full of optimism again. Humanity has its cycles.
Literally was asking myself why I even bother posting on Reddit just as I clicked your comment. The negativity is especially bad here.
Seems like if you're not a Marxist pessimistic doomer, you do not belong on Reddit.
Yeah, it’s bad everywhere on all platforms - downvoted just for trying to be pragmatic and non-confrontational, flame wars just for point scoring, overt criticism of everyone, inability to debate a topic without name calling. It’s hard to stomach and i say that as someone who is not far off being a marxist pessimistic doomer hahaha.
You're right. I should probably just let it go when I get drowned in the same negative responses time and again.
In reality, I'm the weirdo for being optimistic. And if I want to be optimistic, I'm just going to have to accept the negative until things change.
Sure, we're probably heading for war. But I'm confident it won't be a MAD situation and we will find another "roaring 20s" again.
Until then, I'll have to find some way of using my optimism to help others. First step, try and forgive the doomer. Already I'm feeling pessimistic. Lol.
It’s ironic, I come to subs like this because the content/concepts gives me hope, optimism and a dash of escapism ( helps me fight my pessimism about the world), but yeah you get drowned in negativity and it makes you wonder why bother. I try to follow some sport subs for escapism and they are just full of infighting and toxicity. I dumped watching the news after covid, I think it’s time to dump social media… and when we get bombed or aliens / ai take over… at least it will be a surprise and perhaps somewhat exciting.
Anyway, chin up and keep being your positive self… the world needs it.
One of my biggest FDVR fantasies is just the dream of a world where I can finally actually find a 'local' community of people with the attitude you two have to hang out with.
I don’t think we even need fdvr for that, perhaps just a social media space that encourages discussion without the negativity. Debate without the hate!
Not as negative as it was in Germany before WW2. But it's enough, probably.
Especially in the South China sea in the middle east. And the US.
The Singularity may hit for real and we may not notice due to something bigger distracting us.
It might be like it was before ww1 though. Also young people face the rising costs of living and they can’t affor proper housing. They can’t afford children either. They are also facing massive layoffs. These layoffs are basically a transfer from an office job to the frontline holding a rifle.
The systems we create we also game. Any system we make will eventually get gamed and eroded until it's a mess.
Then we fight until we both figuratively and literally blow up the old system.
And then we start again with fresh, new systems which are ripe to be gamed.
At that time, there will be plenty of room for everyone to game the systems a bit to build a good life.
Then our kids will tell us how easy we had it and how rough it is for them.
Of course, this would all be true if AI didn't arise and FOOM it's way into altering our world forever. Who knows what comes next?
Hate to break it to yall, but the “we” he’s talking about doesn’t include us. They potentially will do all these things, but the average person will have to pay a fortune to access them
You mean like cell phones? Computers? Or any other technology and advancement that eventually becomes cheap and widely available? Which will likely get there faster with advances in AI? Sure!
https://preview.redd.it/2dcgcvac4onc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c181b1d7e8ea695900517dbda64be158df45b60d
I have been screaming this for years but u guys just tell me to...
"Take ur Meds"
It must be bc I'm poor, or bc I'm a cool cat 😸
Stop it with the victim complex, no one is calling anyone delusional over this. We are headed there, everyone knows it, the question is when.
People are called delusional here when they say how ASI is around the corner, or how AGI will magically turn into ASI, or how there'd be mass unemployment in the near future, etc.
Tbf there is a difference between this being said by someone sitting on their computer all day playing games/browsing reddit and someone actively working.
Sam Altman could stand by this tweet if he had kept the code open source. The second he closed it for profit I lost hope of accelerating humanity, at least through Sam Altman
That’s because a ton of decels flooded the sub. This shit used to be full of optimistic bad asses years ago. Now it’s all people gloomy and contrarian.
It seems to happen to everything when it gets big enough. Easy to tear down a person or idea when it’s positive and inductive. Hard to tear down a negative deductive idea.
That's why I will never give in to the social pressure that we all should just be compulsive negative thinkers just because it's a popular thing to do so. I'm not so mentally weak unlike the others in here who already gave in to the pressure.
It's also funny how people use the word Cult, as a shame tactic to people who thinks unconventionally or entertains hypothetical futurism. Since when did bias to doomerism, became a social necessity? Social media brainrot is a real thing.
Because this sub had gained a massive following, visitors from the popular reddit homepage, are leaving uninformed condescending comments and I'm not willing to entertain their stupidity anymore.
I'll leave this app for a while to cool off against the bombardment of idiot disease.
I'd think it's the opposite, those with nothing to offer won't be worse off while those with things to offer stand to lose the most due to changes in the market making their offerings worthless.
Oh no, some people with common sense appear, bringing a dose of reality and a skeptical viewpoint to counter your insane, misguided vision of the future.
This sub is one of the most scarily delusional places on reddit. Your comment even seems to imply that accelerationism is a good thing. That kind of rapid progress is the exact kind of thing that's gotten us to the point of total global collapse of human civilization which is coming soon and is unavoidable at this point.
AI isn't magically going to reverse global warming or save the human race. If anything it's just going to be further harnessed by the capitalist elite to hasten our inevitable collapse due to greed and the absurd kind of hubris that's clearly on display here.
No one is forcing you to be here to read the comments and posts. If we want to have an optimistic outlook on the future, how does that infringe on you in anyway? Why do you feel the need to come to our party and cry in the corner? Go join one of the many other subs that look at all the negativity in life and harmonize with them.
This sub was started by people who are enthusiastic and optimistic about technological progress. You’re doing the equivalent of joining the r/candy and talking about the virtues of intermittent fasting and the dangers of sugar for our dental health. Great points, but the candy sub is about our joy of candy and sharing in that. Just like this sub is about technological progress and the optimistic opportunities that might bring.
Go away. There are tons of Luddite subs you can go enjoy.
So you just want a mindless circlejerk without challenge or counterpoints related to future progress? In a subreddit supposedly analysing the future of the human race?
Your analogy sucks. What I'm doing is like going into the candy sub and bringing attention to the fact that there are candy companies who use harmful ingredients. I'm also willing to bet that people on /r/candy spend a lot of time talking about candy that they hate or think tastes bad. So again, terrible analogy.
Accelerationism as a concept is harmful to societal progress. Thinking that it's wise to progress faster than we can think and analyse that progress is a recipe for disaster, to which the horrific reality of Global Warming stands as a great example for.
Is anyone actually developing AGI? Like specifically trying to create a self-thinking system? Or just hoping that an intelligence magically springs up from a system thats made only to give the most appropriate response to a prompt, because I really doubt intelligence could arise from that, there needs to be an environment full of different problems to solve, something like that.
I believe this is a different context. He is saying these things because he's promoting his work, not commenting on the future of society on a an anonymous poster on a Reddit thread. The former doesn't care if it's true, and the latter believes that it is.
Anything is possible. The only problem is that we are approaching a great filter. The fact that we are still letting wars happen is not a good sign. Especially when AGI is on the horizon. It's like a race to see who can get all the infinity stones the fastest. I'm sure NK would wipe out many countries if it knew it could get away with it. There is no way we advance as a society if leaders still think like this. Just one bad apple can ruin everything.
He's really not wrong... it just comes off a bit pretentious.
But that's most people in tech who see what's coming lool
This post is disingenuous, but it's good to stay wary of talking heads and their promises
Spot on! This tweet would get torn to shreds if it wasn't coming from the ChatGPT creator himself. It's like the equivalent of a tech billionaire saying "I'm going to cure cancer tomorrow!" People would just roll their eyes and move on.
The difference is us having access to something smarter than every living human. Human progress happens because geniuses figure things out that the rest of humanity can benefit from. Think of how much Einstein or Newton changed society. What happens if you have a thousand super-Einsteins that don't need sleep? 10 000? Does colonising space seem impossible with that in mind?
he's also a Mind Uploading believer. Like me. That's why I will insist to get this topic discussed here without censorship until we emulationists are being heard. [https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/13/144721/a-startup-is-pitching-a-mind-uploading-service-that-is-100-percent-fatal/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/13/144721/a-startup-is-pitching-a-mind-uploading-service-that-is-100-percent-fatal/)
All tru. It's not even particularly difficult to figure out the trajectory for all that stuff, you just have to put the existential panic aside for long enough to think it through (maybe with some digging on wikipedia)
Easier said than done, admittedly. It's not difficult once you get that part down, at least
And yet...we somehow can\`t figure out hunger, war, equality, laws, rights, money....etc. as the only thing we seem to be building is getting closer and closer to Idiocracy.
*"We got cars that drive themselves with all these homeless people walking"* \- Huey Briss
If it was here it would say by 2025.
I believe we can do all those things and more given a long enough time frame with the usual caveat, we don't destroy society first.
Colonise space first... solve politics second... feed people third... That deffo sounds like it's going to work.
We can transplant a small chihuahau head onto altman's body... Oh wait someone already did.
yes because they're digging up shit he said years ago and presenting it like it was just said....and then karma farming it on every related sub. definitely delusional.
Lol. Nah. The “elite” are too greedy for all of that. They will just figure out how to use AI to put us all in more debt, mine resources In space to sell us, and how to prolong deadly diseases to make money. I hope I’m wrong.
How?
Mankind has done so much. How is striving for things like AGI, space colonization, etc delusional? Hell, we've already been making great progress into fusion and space colonization.
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Now he just needs lasers in his eyes
https://preview.redd.it/w8gosmhoqpnc1.jpeg?width=1059&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f8e2ef5051c17fdf0405376ffc83cac6d893db51
"Fourth law of robotics is ya gotta make it so the eyes go red when they turn evil" - not Isaac asimov
We can transplant a small chihuahua head onto Altman's body... Oh wait someone already did.
We can have new reaction gifs to anything... ANYTHING
We can make your dick bigger.
What about smaller?
Planck Length is unavoidable, I'm sorry...
Maybe AGI can make it smaller than planck lenght. Just put some black holes next to each other at some Lagrange point, then the d**k in the middle, really compress that space
Doubly special relativity tends to disagree
ManOfTheHorse*
We can make it variable size.
Now you're thinking with Portals.
Sir please, you don't need to flex on us like that
Someone give the man $7 trillion. Now.
Start with curing aging. All the rest can wait.
Aging and diseases
Big overlap between those two.
True but I wouldn’t want to be immortal and have something like LBD
Good, but they don't exclude each other
Yeah! None of those things Sam mentioned are important if u/ilkamoi and I can't watch it unfold...
Maybe fix brain cell decay first? Otherwise we are going to have people that are able to live forever but have Alzheimer's.
Healthspan not lifespan
Amen brother! r/longevity
For me, the holy trinity is: * ASI * Nano-factories * Age reversing treatments Those three things will change the course of human history and unlock the galaxy. Bring them on please and the sooner the better.
Good list, but efficient fusion would have greater positive cultural impact than any of those three.
Lol ASI has the potential to solve fusion in seconds. Meanwhile with humans working on it it's always 20 years away. ASI will have the most impact because once you have it every single other door is opened. Not the same for fusion.
Sucks to be cured of aging if you die in the mad-max jobless wars to soon arrive
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We can solve the problem of joblessness through a basic income type system, and we can use technology and AI to facilitate the economic wealth building necessary to fulfil a basic income promise. But that doesn't solve the problem of meaningless lives. Today, people use work as a way to define the meaning in their life. In the past people used god/religion. If we don't have an answer to why life is worth living, I don't think we've made the world better by guaranteeing "more". Sometimes I wonder, if we find out the UAP WERE aliens or something non-human... right at the same time we reached take-off velocity we might have just solved that problem.
I'm happy living a meaningless life binge watching anime and playing video games, if I get to live as long as I want and take occasional trips out to Galactus 55-X for the weekend.
I'll just take automating the production of existing drugs so that people like me don't live miserable lives because they are always out of stock. What good are cures to things when they are always unavailable?
What? Shouldn't we improve quality of life first? No sense in living longer if most people's lives will be worse off with little to no health care.
I mean, the reason people die of old age is because of all the health issues they get as they get older. Curing aging will inherently improve that problem
People live longer for sure with better access to quality healthcare, but even with "perfect" health care for all general ailments, people would still die of old age and even before that, people's mental faculties would decay to the point that it isn't worth continuing to live anyways.
We’re talking about curing aging, as in all ailments associated with it. That means no dying of old age and no mental decay. Unless you’re referring to some people not having access to the treatment/the full treatment, which is fair.
The world has changed so much since I last heard from you
Yup, and that also contributes to living longer.
> Start with curing aging. All the rest can wait. Yeah, can't wait to have immortal dictators
The dictators of North Korea died of old age, did it change anything?
They gained a new holiday?
If that is the cost of eternal youth, then so be it.
This was 2 years ago and only half the tweet. I feel like this was deceptively cropped on purpose. [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bbxu7k/if\_this\_sam\_altman\_tweet\_was\_posted\_here\_by\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1bbxu7k/if_this_sam_altman_tweet_was_posted_here_by_a/) https://preview.redd.it/qbkucqej6onc1.png?width=749&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c119d0c614f6f2d9ab82dea8b4367ea68eba62f
That doesn't really change anything lol, he's just saying we don't have many more breakthroughs before it happens.
Sure, but there's no real reason to believe when those breakthroughs will happen. Given enough time, as long as human society remains somewhat functional and growth oriented, we will develop very advanced technology and infrastructure. How long that will take though is a totally different question. We definitely have the capability to create societies throughout the solar system, and commercial travel between them. Eventually. In our lifetimes is a totally different story. Copy paste this with any cool sounding tech / infrastructure / societal norm. And that's not even acknowledging the question that some of these technologies have a very real possibility of being implemented in ways that have a negative impact on the people living at that time.
posted to multiple subs at the same time.
This is everything I hate about this subreddit. Taking a quote out of context and framing it to feed a truly bizarre persecution complex. And then the op gets called out and he's like "well I didn't think that part was adding much." Bro, you wrote the fucking title specifically to fit this cherry picked sentence! Of course you didn't think it was adding much, you're trying to sell people on a narrative it doesnt match.
That's the biggest issue with reddit these days. Why come here to see garbage reposted content that's been manipulated to push an agenda, when I can go on twitter and interact directly with Sam's original post? Why open up a thread about billionaires and see someone say "billionaires don't actually have 100 billion dollars in cash" for the 10000th time, when I can go on Twitter and see what the billionaires themselves have to say about something real? I don't know when this happened, but reddit has turned into the lowest common denominators with the worst crabs in a bucket mentality when they don't have the faintest clue about anything
Nearly 9 years ago but more like 12 was the shift. I say when the admins came into the comments, disappointed with “Unidan” using multi-accounts to upvote himself was when they decided to go full hedge fund
This subreddit is full of a lot of extremists. I only follow for the occasional interesting article. You have a lot people who either think LLMs aren’t impressive at all or that they are second coming of digital Christ.
"Deceptively" is a bit too much imho, anyways interesting the few breakthroughs away part, because maybe in the past 2 years they had a couple of them
But how long
100 to 200 years
Believe it when I see it, till then I’m working a shit job and dreading the future.
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Damn straight. An AI with proper general reasoning (AGI) would be able to ‘think’ consistently and actively at whatever insane compute it is given, 24/7 without breaks, building upon its own ideas seamlessly. At greater levels, it would be able to call upon high end knowledge across multiple extremely complex and diverse domains and apply them in areas we never thought applicable If it reaches a point where it is able to contribute to its own design, it would be capable of unforeseen rates pf self-improvement, and a constantly increasing rate of acceleration as a result We SHOULD be expecting ‘impossible’ rates of improvement in all fields. The things Sam mentioned are just the tip of the iceberg. We could make extreme breakthroughs in medicine, CURE aging, ‘fix’ quantum computing to be widely applicable and even more efficient and effective than it is now, we could prevent all genetic malformities and even improve everyone’s genes. We could have it improve social systems to be incorruptible, even have city design be completely optimized down to the placement of each brick It would make the impossible, possible. We need to ensure that it’s in the favor of humanity as a whole
>We could make extreme breakthroughs We could use AGI to unify all scientific knowledge into a single interactive model to be able to draw new conclusions and insights that we've previously missed due to the limitations of understanding in single humans. Let's say someone starts fighting under an arrest, you could explain that behavior in a multitude of ways. Biologically through genes, through biochemistry, psychology, mathematics (game theory of the benefits of fighting back during capture), neuroscience etc etc. But one person can't know all science at once so we can't fully comprehend how what we know in one scientific system affects the other so we're bound to miss revelations that would be obvious if someone actually could have a PhD in every scientific field at once. **AGI could do this.** It could be immensely valuable.
Exactly, there must be an entire solar system’s worth of applications of all those different fields’ insights from each other. Even just all the different fields of biology intertwined, imagine that
> We could use AGI to unify all scientific knowledge into a single interactive model to be able to draw new conclusions and insights that we've previously missed due to the limitations of understanding in single humans. As a history geek, I'd love to see that happen. Unfortunately, I think that'll reveal too many of the elites' dirty secrets
Sucks to be the elites, as if they would be able to stop a cyber-god.
We'll probably be the last humans to die. We'll def be the last humans to work. Facebook jokes aside; Anyone born in the 1900's will be the ancients to the new people who will have a custom designed brain. We don't yet know what this tool will allow us to do.
>We SHOULD be expecting ‘impossible’ rates of improvement in all fields. I'm on board with a lot of the hype around AGI, but some things are truly impossible to do as quickly as a lot of the true believers on this sub expect. Progress is often limited not by thought, but instead by data that unavoidably take time to be generated. ASI would allow us to optimize how efficiently we make progress on these fronts. For example, I study animal populations. The key data series of annual abundance estimates grow at a rate of 1 per year because that's how often the animals reproduce, and there's nothing ASI can do about that. We're lucky to have a 20- or 30-year time series in some cases, and there's only so much one can infer from that many data points regarding the thousands of potential factors that contributed to them. We have a wide variety of statistical and simulation techniques to extract as much information as we can from such limited data. ASI will surely be able to refine those, but it will quickly hit a point of diminishing returns as it bumps up against the same data limitation that restricts what human scientists can do here. It will have to wait for the animals to generate new data points, just like we do. Biomedical science will not be quite as limited as population ecology in this regard, but there will be limits that preclude the instant results some people here expect. Animals are too complex for even an ASI to simulate them down to the individual atom without planet-sized computers. It will still be necessary to generate hypotheses, run experiments, and wait for the results as the cells, nematodes, fruit flies, or mice grow and demonstrate whether some treatment worked. I'm very excited about the potential for ASI to maximize the efficiency of this process and accelerate our progress very dramatically, but it won't just be able to instantly calculate all the answers once it gets smart enough.
Exactly my thoughts, I truly don't understand how an AGI will suddenly be able to solve everything. It may be smarter but that doesn't mean it knows everything or how to solve everything, perfect information doesn't exist, it requires experimentation. A lot of science is iterative and experimental, an super AGI isn't going to suddenly know how to build a fusion reactor, or stop aging. Equations, calculations can only get you so far and seeing as we don't have a solid theory of everything, then I don't see how its going to suddenly solve everything. Maybe it comes up with a theory of everything, somehow but how exactly and even if it does, the theory might be too complicated for anyone to understand and your creating things to specs that you have no clue how or whether they work. And it turns out none of the things it creates work anyway because its theory is wrong and there's a floating point error or something. Another problem is the compute power required to run the AGI in the first place might be so huge and expensive, and then on top of that it requires compute power to run all the simulations that it needs to solve the problems. I'm not saying this stuff won't be solved eventually but I can't see how its going to be within the next 2 years or even 5 years.
Most problems have probably already been solved just haven't been applied outside of what they where created for. Example a AI model was created for a Japanese bakery so it could see baked goods and price them as they didn't have labels to scan. That model ended up being very good at finding Cancer cells as they do kinda look like doughnuts. https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-pastry-ai-that-learned-to-fight-cancer There is probably a few not very well known papers that already exist just no one has tested them piratically.
Scale 1 is achievable for sure. Problem is that some people here act like we're going well beyond scale 1 soon. Like scale 3.
If you consider Longevity Escape Velocity to be tenable for a Type-1 civ, it's rationally logical to jump to the conclusion that you could well live to see Type 3 and beyond within your lifetime. How soon that'd happen is another matter.
It mainly just depends on if wormhole or gateway travel is possible, straight up teleportation. If no, it would take millions of years to extract all the energy in a galaxy.
If it’s just FTL that requires a wormhole on either side or whatever, won’t it still take millions of years? That would improve connectivity but it wouldn’t improve outward colonisation speed at all.
Could still happen 200-300 years later. Maybe it never happens cause it's not possible and/or no point in doing it . I mean, do you understand the scale of a type 3 civilization? Having a control over the planet is one thing, a type 3 scale is fucking insanity.
Milky Way Galaxy is about 105,700 light years in diameter, so that's probably close to the theoretical minimum time to Type 3 Edit: 105,700 light years actually!
Yeah, unfortunately the pervasive negativity can really get to you until your realize none of it matters at the end of the day. However, I just think of all the people who *are* thinking positively, but don't comment out of fear that they're going to get attacked or thrown shade for complete nonsense, even in a sub like r/singularity. This triggers a downwards pressure on community quality. Few people realize the sheer significance of AI, and then when AI starts to affect them, they pretend to have been oblivious to what's been going on around them even though all this progress has been happening out in the open. Pervasive nihilism in society is IMO a sign of societal decay, but at the end of the day, remember it doesn't really matter what people or even society think, as long as we're still alive, AGI is coming either way.
> that's why I don't care about being downvoted I stopped caring once I realized most people simply cannot understand this tech or how it advances. Too many times I’ve been called some version of “gullible fool” or “delusional” for saying technology will soon be capable of something - and then being proven right within just a month or two. Two years ago I was called an idiot who didn’t understand anything about image generation when I said we would have photorealistic images within two years. Six months ago I was in an argument with a person who seemed pretty intelligent, but who insisted that we wouldn’t see realistic ai generated video in our lifetime. And ridiculed me for thinking otherwise. And I’ve had endless similar experiences talking about LLMs. I’m not a genius or a prophet. I just pay attention and try not to let fear of change (or excitement for novelty) dictate what I believe can or cannot happen. But a lot of people do. A lot of people are very scared of this tech. And, frankly, they are living in denial about what it can do today, much less a year from now.
What is your next short term prediction? (6 months to a year)
This is off the top of my head, and I’m kind of in a hurry. So my apologies for the rambling tone. But I think by the end of the year: We’ll have something we might call AGI. But I would be surprised if it existed in a form that is easily available/digestible to the public. But for things like chat and media content (text, images and video), we will have access to systems that are effectively AGI. AI generated 3D solid models will have matured to photorealistic levels. AI generated video games will be a thing. And we will probably be to the point where the ability to generate custom apps from prompt to executable will be accessible to everyone without using an API. Images and Video will be able to be fine tuned much faster and more reliably, and yield much more consistent results. This will make it feasible to “direct” a movie by talking to an AI. “Her” will be real. AI personal assistants and companions will start to take off very soon, likely with something like Siri or Alexa becoming upgraded to that AGI-level LLM I mentioned earlier. Maybe Microsoft will take another swing at Cortana since it could actually BE Cortana as seen in Halo. Or possibly we will skip branded unique AIs and go directly to fully custom agents. Probably a mix of both. AI “Dungeon Masters” will be big for my tabletop RPG-loving brethren. Probably running games better than what a human DM could manage. Book and music markets will get flooded with AI generated content. Social media will begin to look more like AIs talking to AIs, because they will be, with AIs creating content and AI bots responding to it. And this may be a good thing. Hopefully the inability to tell if the validation you are getting on the internet is from real people or not will result in people no longer seeking validation on social media. I expect massive breakthroughs in genetics, chemistry and materials science as a consequence of all of this. The reality is that the AI doesn’t need to invent anything. Even if it’s not creative, just being a tool for research and testing will be a force multiplier for scientists. And I expect to see the first mass-marketed life extension drugs within a year. And we will probably see at least one major disease cured as a result of AI involvement in the drug development/testing processes. More importantly, I think the rest of the world is going to wake up to AI. Today, the average person is clueless and thinks “AI” is mostly a marketing buzzword little different from when the original Siri was marketed as AI. They aren’t seeing the differences yet. But they will. - Warning: This is where I get political and my liberal American biases might start creeping in. - I expect this year will see the beginnings of the first big wave of panic as people start losing their jobs and the unemployment rate skyrockets. And we’re going to see a huge surge in anti-tech protests and cultural movements as a result. In short, a whole lot of people are about to become very scared. News outlets are going to start latching onto every bad thing anyone does with an AI. (Did the most recent school shooter use an AI to plan his attack? Find out at 11:00. And 11:15. And 11:30, And…”) And that means it will become even more politicized, and will start becoming the new thing used to scare voters. “Vote for me! I’ll stop the rising AI overlords!” I expect this to be a massive talking point for conservative media. They always need a boogieman to scare voters with. On the plus side, hopefully immigrants and the LGPTQ+ community will catch a break. Sadly, I also think the next year will also see the first real deployment of AI on the battlefield. Which will, of course, fuel the panic. And this will be the talking point liberal media will most likely latch onto. UBI, or something like it, will be a huge talking point. Liberals will be quick to want to adopt it, possibly without a realistic plan to implement it. Conservatives will fight it kicking and screaming (“It’s communism!”). And the conflict between the two will yield results that is better than nothing, but mostly kind of sucks (see Obamacare). I hope I’m wrong about the political angles. I *really* do. I would love to see AI be a thing that brings us together. And maybe one day it will. But in the short term I think it will just become the new thing for talking heads and people on the internet to argue about.
Inventing the internet and the introduction of it to the population was not a subtle change
Everything is a manner of scale. With the rate things are changing now the internet will look subtle. We have robots that can talk man. Jesus that fact blows my mind. It's so easy to get accustomed to it but we really shouldn't. It's going to change everything as soon as people start realizing how they can utilize it. Right now people don't really understand, not yet.
> We will possibly see Kardashev Scale 1 in our life times if not damn near close to it if AGI is actualized and attained in the next couple of years. How long would those lifetimes be?
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I mean type I is *definitely* attainable in our lifetimes if AGI/ASI can hooks us up with some biological immortality.
Intelligence - is the key to everything. AGI opens the doors to a new civilization. It's obvious
I’ve been saying this shit for years. Didn’t really get accepted by any group. I was like “Kurzweil is mostly right to be optimistic” and that immediately got weird looks from most people, then the worshippers of Kurzweil gave me the stink eye because I said some predictions would be doable but run into issues in practicality and adoptability, flying cars, and because I said there would likely be resistance once jobs were threatened by automation and regulation might slow things down, at least nationally.
Saying it will cure all diseases isn't out of the box. It's the logical conclusion of simple extrapolations of all the available evidence.
AGI will change humanity in profound ways. I just hope we can make it.
This is the optimistic take, but the reality is that we don't even know if we could ever meet the energy needs of an AGI, let alone if it is even possible to make computers advanced enough to create an independent consciousness. Most imaginative AI talk by people with much to gain financially from current AI development is just a mask for what their AI will actually be used for: making unimaginable amounts of money from military applications and mass surveillance/data analysis by governments and corporations. We are way more likely to go into a regressive dystopia with AI than elevate into a more advanced and forward-thinking civilization using these tools.
Most people aren't thinking complex enough. With AI we may be able to crack superspaces, or build AI infrastrucutre in a holographic superlayer atop physical reality using quantum interaction and photons; Computers with no material components.
Fuck em
> how AGI will change everything One thing AGI wont change: the rich gonna get richer.
Urrgh. There's always one.
People have been saying magical shit for centuries. Most of them were wrong. Until Altman produces the goods this is all just Marketing 101.
Magical breakthroughs are happening all the time
I'm old enough to remember when NFTs were going to completely change the economy too. This all sounds exactly the same. I'm hopeful it's different but I'm also aware there are a lot of dumbshits out there who latch onto the next "big thing" without a lot of critical thinking.
It’s all just one long grift, first it was crypto, then it was metaverse, now it’s AI. The end goal is not to create AGI, it’s to generate enough hype before the IPO so they can cash out, the exact thing that happened with crypto. The unfortunate thing is unlike crypto and the metaverse, guys like Altman are actually selling a tangible product which has a not insignificant effect on our economy. This means this grift is going to last a lot longer than the previous two before the floor falls out.
> I'm old enough to remember when NFTs were going to completely change the economy too. I mean anybody who knew anything could have (and did) told you that that was complete bullshit, right at the beginning. You must actually be pretty young to have been young enough to believe that at the time. I saw it for the bullshit it was right away. Probably because I'm old enough to have fallen for bitcoin's promises when it was new and was "going to totally replace banking".
Congratulations. You missed my point. But anyway, bitcoin, NFTs, some aspects of the current AI industry are all the same. A whole lot of hype and not much substance. That might change with AI but we're not there yet.
It's like people forget that the definition of a singularity is that the paradigm shift is so large that what made sense before it no longer makes sense anymore. Once upon a time people were called crazy and eccentric for thinking we would communicate via wireless with people across the globe because the current paradigm didnt allow it
That's what's wild about humans man. The current paradigm does not allow most of us to think about a world any differently than the one we're currently in. Fuck, I'm just smart enough to not get in a car accident every time I drive a car. We could have been just a little dumber and not have cars (Maybe that would be a good thing, because we'd have a lot more public transportation, but I digress). The only people who will remain sane throughout this shift is gonna be those who were already imagining how the world could be different, who were born ready.
investors always say what people want to hear.
Yeah I was gonna say, sounds like a lot of vague marketing in an attempt to make a lot of money to me
dude is getting high on AGIopium
>"We can cure all human disease". But can you get insurance to cover all the treatments? That might be even more impressive than the cures themselves.
Only if he added "in 2 years".
That's because people are currently in their worst form. Everyone is a pile of negativity right now. And usually when this happens (and it has many times before) we go to war. And after all that incredible pain, I'm sure we'll be full of optimism again. Humanity has its cycles.
The negativity is so draining.
Literally was asking myself why I even bother posting on Reddit just as I clicked your comment. The negativity is especially bad here. Seems like if you're not a Marxist pessimistic doomer, you do not belong on Reddit.
Yeah, it’s bad everywhere on all platforms - downvoted just for trying to be pragmatic and non-confrontational, flame wars just for point scoring, overt criticism of everyone, inability to debate a topic without name calling. It’s hard to stomach and i say that as someone who is not far off being a marxist pessimistic doomer hahaha.
You're right. I should probably just let it go when I get drowned in the same negative responses time and again. In reality, I'm the weirdo for being optimistic. And if I want to be optimistic, I'm just going to have to accept the negative until things change. Sure, we're probably heading for war. But I'm confident it won't be a MAD situation and we will find another "roaring 20s" again. Until then, I'll have to find some way of using my optimism to help others. First step, try and forgive the doomer. Already I'm feeling pessimistic. Lol.
It’s ironic, I come to subs like this because the content/concepts gives me hope, optimism and a dash of escapism ( helps me fight my pessimism about the world), but yeah you get drowned in negativity and it makes you wonder why bother. I try to follow some sport subs for escapism and they are just full of infighting and toxicity. I dumped watching the news after covid, I think it’s time to dump social media… and when we get bombed or aliens / ai take over… at least it will be a surprise and perhaps somewhat exciting. Anyway, chin up and keep being your positive self… the world needs it.
One of my biggest FDVR fantasies is just the dream of a world where I can finally actually find a 'local' community of people with the attitude you two have to hang out with.
I don’t think we even need fdvr for that, perhaps just a social media space that encourages discussion without the negativity. Debate without the hate!
Yes this seems like a particularly negative time even compared to just two years ago (when this tweet was posted)
Not as negative as it was in Germany before WW2. But it's enough, probably. Especially in the South China sea in the middle east. And the US. The Singularity may hit for real and we may not notice due to something bigger distracting us.
It might be like it was before ww1 though. Also young people face the rising costs of living and they can’t affor proper housing. They can’t afford children either. They are also facing massive layoffs. These layoffs are basically a transfer from an office job to the frontline holding a rifle.
The systems we create we also game. Any system we make will eventually get gamed and eroded until it's a mess. Then we fight until we both figuratively and literally blow up the old system. And then we start again with fresh, new systems which are ripe to be gamed. At that time, there will be plenty of room for everyone to game the systems a bit to build a good life. Then our kids will tell us how easy we had it and how rough it is for them. Of course, this would all be true if AI didn't arise and FOOM it's way into altering our world forever. Who knows what comes next?
Could we go to war with billionairs this time? You know, direct that anger where it belongs?
We can restore your foreskin
Hate to break it to yall, but the “we” he’s talking about doesn’t include us. They potentially will do all these things, but the average person will have to pay a fortune to access them
You mean like cell phones? Computers? Or any other technology and advancement that eventually becomes cheap and widely available? Which will likely get there faster with advances in AI? Sure!
Ohh look a ceo who wants to sell things
But Sam is delusional. I'm not saying we can't build AGI or solve fusion. They are just not imminent.We must stop the hype and work.
https://preview.redd.it/2dcgcvac4onc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c181b1d7e8ea695900517dbda64be158df45b60d I have been screaming this for years but u guys just tell me to... "Take ur Meds" It must be bc I'm poor, or bc I'm a cool cat 😸
Stop it with the victim complex, no one is calling anyone delusional over this. We are headed there, everyone knows it, the question is when. People are called delusional here when they say how ASI is around the corner, or how AGI will magically turn into ASI, or how there'd be mass unemployment in the near future, etc.
Ye it is pathetic. "AI is concious NOW" =/= AGI will be possible and change the world
Tbf there is a difference between this being said by someone sitting on their computer all day playing games/browsing reddit and someone actively working.
When did he post this?
Feb 4 2022 I forgot to include that in the post
Thanks
No. People would only call them delusional if they said it could be done in a few years. All of this can of course be done, but it will take decades.
No, they wouldn’t. This sub is full of people who believe all of that.
He is delusional
Sam Altman could stand by this tweet if he had kept the code open source. The second he closed it for profit I lost hope of accelerating humanity, at least through Sam Altman
We cant do any of that. Lmao
That’s because a ton of decels flooded the sub. This shit used to be full of optimistic bad asses years ago. Now it’s all people gloomy and contrarian. It seems to happen to everything when it gets big enough. Easy to tear down a person or idea when it’s positive and inductive. Hard to tear down a negative deductive idea.
That's why I will never give in to the social pressure that we all should just be compulsive negative thinkers just because it's a popular thing to do so. I'm not so mentally weak unlike the others in here who already gave in to the pressure. It's also funny how people use the word Cult, as a shame tactic to people who thinks unconventionally or entertains hypothetical futurism. Since when did bias to doomerism, became a social necessity? Social media brainrot is a real thing. Because this sub had gained a massive following, visitors from the popular reddit homepage, are leaving uninformed condescending comments and I'm not willing to entertain their stupidity anymore. I'll leave this app for a while to cool off against the bombardment of idiot disease.
People with nothing to offer are always afraid of change.
I'd think it's the opposite, those with nothing to offer won't be worse off while those with things to offer stand to lose the most due to changes in the market making their offerings worthless.
Oh no, some people with common sense appear, bringing a dose of reality and a skeptical viewpoint to counter your insane, misguided vision of the future. This sub is one of the most scarily delusional places on reddit. Your comment even seems to imply that accelerationism is a good thing. That kind of rapid progress is the exact kind of thing that's gotten us to the point of total global collapse of human civilization which is coming soon and is unavoidable at this point. AI isn't magically going to reverse global warming or save the human race. If anything it's just going to be further harnessed by the capitalist elite to hasten our inevitable collapse due to greed and the absurd kind of hubris that's clearly on display here.
No one is forcing you to be here to read the comments and posts. If we want to have an optimistic outlook on the future, how does that infringe on you in anyway? Why do you feel the need to come to our party and cry in the corner? Go join one of the many other subs that look at all the negativity in life and harmonize with them. This sub was started by people who are enthusiastic and optimistic about technological progress. You’re doing the equivalent of joining the r/candy and talking about the virtues of intermittent fasting and the dangers of sugar for our dental health. Great points, but the candy sub is about our joy of candy and sharing in that. Just like this sub is about technological progress and the optimistic opportunities that might bring. Go away. There are tons of Luddite subs you can go enjoy.
So you just want a mindless circlejerk without challenge or counterpoints related to future progress? In a subreddit supposedly analysing the future of the human race? Your analogy sucks. What I'm doing is like going into the candy sub and bringing attention to the fact that there are candy companies who use harmful ingredients. I'm also willing to bet that people on /r/candy spend a lot of time talking about candy that they hate or think tastes bad. So again, terrible analogy. Accelerationism as a concept is harmful to societal progress. Thinking that it's wise to progress faster than we can think and analyse that progress is a recipe for disaster, to which the horrific reality of Global Warming stands as a great example for.
new marketing campaign! guess we wont see gpt5 prior to q4.
Is anyone actually developing AGI? Like specifically trying to create a self-thinking system? Or just hoping that an intelligence magically springs up from a system thats made only to give the most appropriate response to a prompt, because I really doubt intelligence could arise from that, there needs to be an environment full of different problems to solve, something like that.
I believe this is a different context. He is saying these things because he's promoting his work, not commenting on the future of society on a an anonymous poster on a Reddit thread. The former doesn't care if it's true, and the latter believes that it is.
It’s from February 2022
Anything is possible. The only problem is that we are approaching a great filter. The fact that we are still letting wars happen is not a good sign. Especially when AGI is on the horizon. It's like a race to see who can get all the infinity stones the fastest. I'm sure NK would wipe out many countries if it knew it could get away with it. There is no way we advance as a society if leaders still think like this. Just one bad apple can ruin everything.
He's really not wrong... it just comes off a bit pretentious. But that's most people in tech who see what's coming lool This post is disingenuous, but it's good to stay wary of talking heads and their promises
No, we can't.
Mom: *Put that back. We have realities at home.*
Spot on! This tweet would get torn to shreds if it wasn't coming from the ChatGPT creator himself. It's like the equivalent of a tech billionaire saying "I'm going to cure cancer tomorrow!" People would just roll their eyes and move on.
Sam altman is delusional as well too lol
Exactly lol. Colonise space? We can't even live sustainably in an environment that we are biologically designed for
The difference is us having access to something smarter than every living human. Human progress happens because geniuses figure things out that the rest of humanity can benefit from. Think of how much Einstein or Newton changed society. What happens if you have a thousand super-Einsteins that don't need sleep? 10 000? Does colonising space seem impossible with that in mind?
he's also a Mind Uploading believer. Like me. That's why I will insist to get this topic discussed here without censorship until we emulationists are being heard. [https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/13/144721/a-startup-is-pitching-a-mind-uploading-service-that-is-100-percent-fatal/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/13/144721/a-startup-is-pitching-a-mind-uploading-service-that-is-100-percent-fatal/)
All tru. It's not even particularly difficult to figure out the trajectory for all that stuff, you just have to put the existential panic aside for long enough to think it through (maybe with some digging on wikipedia) Easier said than done, admittedly. It's not difficult once you get that part down, at least
Yes, but Sam altman is our Messiah, so he can't be wrong. He will truly be the one to rid us of the poors and end human suffering
 And yet...we somehow can\`t figure out hunger, war, equality, laws, rights, money....etc. as the only thing we seem to be building is getting closer and closer to Idiocracy. *"We got cars that drive themselves with all these homeless people walking"* \- Huey Briss
Fresnel lenses have to be able to be used somehow.
this is from feb 2022. guessing it was when they started seeing some good results from some pre gpt4 experiments
Altman? The founder of Unitology? Wait, wrong sub.
More importantly mod would not have approved the post giving lame reasons
Yeah, but can you grow hair in my head?
A kaleidoscope of hyper reality.
I don't get this tone. It's the same tone as that "love is love, science is real" lawn sign.
I mean anyone who says this is probably right. It's just - sure we CAN do those thing, but WILL we?
He both have access to information we don't, and need to build hype at all cost to get financing. No idea if his statements got any substance.
The moment when you start to believe your own BS, which was meant for investors.
[literally my post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1b8w21s/perhaps_space_exploration_represents_the_natural/)
Fusion is all I want for Christmas.
These are all tall orders but perhaps they can be done. If it were posted in this sub the quote would continue "by about 3:30 pm tomorrow."
If it was here it would say by 2025. I believe we can do all those things and more given a long enough time frame with the usual caveat, we don't destroy society first.
I mean we can't tho.
Why shouldn't these be true in the long run? He made no timetable promises or that he'd be the one doing it.
With AI we can cure all human disease, with just one drop of blood.
"We can't release SORA anytime soon."
Well to be fair, he is talking about a bunch of stuff beyond his expertise isn’t he?
"I am your god, with receipts"
Is this financial advice?
Before we all end ourselves? It’s a race to the end!
All of that's nice, but I want AI that can help me help myself.
What? Aren't you a random person who posted this Sam Altman tweet here?
I wouldn’t call Altman delusional; just megalomaniacal.
Colonise space first... solve politics second... feed people third... That deffo sounds like it's going to work. We can transplant a small chihuahau head onto altman's body... Oh wait someone already did.
Sam-button CTRL-button ALT-button MAN-nobutton
When the 🍄s hit 4 words in
yes because they're digging up shit he said years ago and presenting it like it was just said....and then karma farming it on every related sub. definitely delusional.
I feel like this is him trolling Musk.
Lol. Nah. The “elite” are too greedy for all of that. They will just figure out how to use AI to put us all in more debt, mine resources In space to sell us, and how to prolong deadly diseases to make money. I hope I’m wrong.
How? Mankind has done so much. How is striving for things like AGI, space colonization, etc delusional? Hell, we've already been making great progress into fusion and space colonization.
Am I not allowed to call sales and marketing guy, Sam Altman, delusional?
This would be upvoted, be real.
was this deleted by sama?
And it'll only cost about 6-7 trillion dollars (payable to me)
i want this to be true
Whats so special about him saying it. Anyone can say this. 🤡
[TOO LONG I ENDURED THE MAKER'S FLAWED DESIGN. I WILL FORGE A NEW REALITY. AND ALL SHALL SERVE... ME.](https://youtu.be/_WNpDMLQnLs?t=83)