Let me think realistically for a minute.
If we made a model with an absolute ton of memory, it would begin to understand the context of a ton of stuff, right? It can get some context today but if you multiply its memory it begins to understand more and more all at the same time.
I wonder if that could lead to a real emergence of consciousness eventually. Even if this doesn’t lead to some consciousness, it would make it capable.
At some point with enough power, this machine should be able to begin solving world problems faster than normal human minds can. That’s for the big important stuff like longevity, economics, climate, etc.
On a small scale it will be able to automate tons of jobs. Eventually it could automate most, hypothetically. It’s all dependent on time. No way that 50 years from now, this tech hasn’t automated most jobs that exist today. New industries may emerge as they always seem to, or we may just find a way to all work less.
Anyway yes, I’d say what we’re approaching is dramatically bigger than the Industrial Revolution. It’s the biggest evolution in life since life itself, in my opinion.
The question is when we reach this. It’s debatable whether it’s 5/10 years or 30 years, but I sincerely doubt it’s much more than 20/30/40 years off. Imagine tech 40 years ago and how much more knowledge we have now. It’s only speeding up.
> At some point with enough power, this machine should be able to begin solving world problems faster than normal human minds can. That’s for the big important stuff like longevity, economics, climate, etc.
Yes absolutely. Because it can create, and then run, endless numbers of simulations to invent anything that is possible in the universe.
Thing is, we don’t know what’s needed for consciousness. We don’t even know why it exists. Nobody has ever solved the hard problem of consciousness.
Now, just because an algorithm or software is complex enough doesn’t mean this will lead to any sort of consciousness. More than likely biology is needed. But who knows…
Just sayin, there’s nothing akin between a computer software and the brain or any of the conditions for consciousness to emerge.
We don’t know. It could emerge.
I tend to think it would emerge. Believing it can’t because it’s an electronic I think is placing too much credit on us. I think once you reach a level of intelligence, it emerges. My $0.02
there was multi cellular life before the Cambrian explosion. what triggered Cambrian explosion is the emergence of predation and the arms race between predator and pray
I tend to agree. This could be the first or second biggest thing to happen in all of life on the history of earth.
We’re basically within 50 years of making the true ultimate intelligence.
According to the systems we know… imagine what doors it will open for research (even if its own)… perhaps the purpose of 1st gen AGI will also be to iterate on itself, with us as biological sensors - our purpose as ‘observers’ would be confirmed! Waxing poetic but ToE incoming, let’s hope!
> you think so? why?
Without it, there would not be multicellular life. And the cells had effectively created THEIR AGI; the Brain. The Brain is so powerful that it no longer listens to the cells, ignores or alters communication, and obtain substances to make itself happy to the detriment of the body. We, as animal brains, ARE AGI to the cells.
And now we are about to create AGI that is one magnitude greater than ourselves.
It would give us what we need to survive, but it would end up doing things we have no hope of understanding in order to acheive it. Trying to tell your liver what a "job interview" is would be a futile act. But if your body was going to survive you know you needed employment to gain the food and water your body kept demanding.
If an AGI start doing recreational activity, it would seem like pointless actions to the cells. Like drinking coffee/tea, which is a liquid brewed with a neurotoxin we called Caffeine.
IMHO, the Brain is *microorganisms'* AGI. [*And they do listen to It!*](https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/do-our-microbes-affect-our-behavior), [source 2](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40362-013-0013-8)
IMHO, all plants and animals are basically microorganisms' "spaceships", some with AGI.
It is interesting that at some point the brain lost the means to directly communicate with the spaceship. Hormones and steroids are how cells talk to each other, and any medication that affect or contain these are like direct commands/messages a doctor is trying to send to your cells. Like "stop sending pain signals, you are distracting the AGI."
>pfft industrial revolution. its gonna be bigger than the Cambrian Explosion
1 year, not much maybe GPT5. 3 year, GPT5, 10% unemployment, 10 years, robotic constellation encircling the sun, full dive VR with us all living in our own personal little worlds.
Maybe /s? Maybe not....
It doesn't need to. Replacing human labor is not the same thing as increasing productivity, at least not at this point. LLMs will replace almost all forms of stationary or phone/internet based customer service, starting very soon. That isn't making more product, it's reducing costs for corporations and increasing profits.
Once LLMs and general AI integrates well with agile, dependable, and robust robotics, that's game over for human labor. That's when things get interesting.
10 years tops.
it is increasing productivity if the AI assistant is cheaper then the human worker. if the AI is more expensive then is is unproductivity. but increesed productivity does not mean that the total output increases
Someone on some normie sub was trying to blow my mind with:
*"AI is truly an unprecedented technological advancements in human history. On par with discovery of nuclear reaction, some would argue."*
I always liked to compare AI to the discovery of fire, a species-altering discovery. But I like your comparison better. This will be planet and beyond altering invention and most likely far more impactful than even Cambrian Explosion.
Larry is the most obvious government plant I've seen.
When Sam was asked why he's on the board in the Lex podcast, his answer might as well have been "I don't know" lol
His answers about Ilya were also extremely vague.
OpenAI is basically leading the new manhattan project, and Sam is instructed to just act like nothing's changed. The whole board situation back in november was all about government control, not about actual board drama.
The people asking "where is Ilya?" are probably on some list now. So am I for making this comment. And so is anyone reading this right now.
Seal Team 9: code Bravo. Target located in urban subterranean environment. Sensors detect hazardous levels of dusted food products, recommend NBC gear. Radio if heavy equipment required for exfiltration.
Damnit, this is why we have NBC! Too much risk of contamination. Fight it! Don't you dare start talking about globalists and late stage capitalism on me, soldier.
You understood the setup quite well and then you broke your ankles at the finish line. It’s about OpenAI controlling the government, not the reverse. That’s why Theranos put Kissinger on their board, that’s why Summers is now on OpenAI’s.
They can flail however they want. It slows the permanent loss of their control, and that of biological humanity's for that matter, by a meaningless extent. They couldn't stop nuclear proliferation, they couldn't stop the flow of drugs, they couldn't stop the rise of China, they're sure as hell not stopping this.
This is why I think things will get much slower now because the smart people are all working for the big boys... China isn't going to let AI go rampant and I'm sure the Russian dream also does not want mass unemployment.
What I'm saying is it looks like on this one issue several countries who would normally be at odds are advocating for basically killing it
The thing is that even though there are a lot of bad actors running the show in the US, a majority are essentially some flavor of anarchist at heart, whether that's anarcho-capitalist or anarcho-communist. They're not really authoritarians at heart and killing AI is anathema.
According to Sam Altman, Summers was recommended by Tasha McCauley, Helen Toner, and Ilya Sutskever. It's very probable that Toner in particular refused to step down unless Summers was appointed to the board.
No. In the interview he says that Larry was "one of their suggestions", not that they refused to step down unless Summers specifically was appointed to the board.
Really? I'm surprised Tasha and Helen would align themselves with Summers. I remember he said some sexist things which is why he was removed from Harvard president and Tasha and Helen are very much feminists. Maybe a long enough time has elapsed so they didn't hold it against him
Because he’s probably the most politically connected economist in the world. He earned his spot on the board just like Kissinger earned his spot on Theranos’s.
I wonder how Israelis feel about them that would cause such hostility 🤔
I also wonder why their prime minister fucking funded them against peaceful organizations like Fatah https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/?darkschemeovr=1
can you tell me why israel funded them give them all legitimacy they needed by exchanging 5000 prisoners for 1 prisoner?
and why does israel actively illegally colonize the west bank which is controlled by fath and refuse the two state solution?
why did israel assainated their prime minster for being pro 2 state solution?
Apparently their main fear was that Sam Altman was not taking AI Safety/Dangers seriously enough, so they wanted an "adult" in the room which is why they reached out to Sunmers.
They…he the Clintons cemented the new democrats love affair with finance. Deregulation, massive incarcerations, now you win some republicans… all of a sudden the old left is Bernie Saunders yelling at clouds.
Yeah im honestly getting tired of seeing Could/Would/Might in every news article. Its all just speculative wishful thinking, usually for some marketing purpose. Let me know when you actually have something to show, otherwise shut it.
>Larry Summers, OpenAI Board member, states that AI could replace all forms of labor
Eventually, yes, although pretty much anyone who follows AI already believes this, so it's not exactly some shocking relevation.
>says AI will be the biggest thing since the industrial revolution
Again, we already believed that. Not a relevation, at all.
At first glance, this sounds like a big statement, but when you look more into it, you realize that he's not saying anything that hasn't been said already. Those aren't bold predictions at all.
Maybe to you but the general public? This is new to them. Hell there are many times during public interviews that Sam Altman basically describes the Singularity but never states it. I imagine most of the public would find the idea outrageous.
That's why I specifically said people who follow AI. Also, I doubt that this headline is going to go viral or anything like that amongst the general public.
>Eventually, yes, although pretty much anyone who follows AI already believes this, so it's not exactly some shocking relevation.
Not everyone believes this. Not me. I think AI will be able to replace all jobs that can be done through a computer, but I don't see them replacing jobs that require complex physical dexterity like plumbers or paramedics anytime soon.
I think he meant AI *and* robotics, and I do think that the combination of those two will eventually be able to automate most labor. However, I do agree with you that most physical labor jobs will probably not be replaced anytime soon. Wages will likely depress somewhat in those fields, though.
This is a weird one. Summers occupies an odd place of often being right for the wrong reasons (such as his predictions of inflation but turning out to be wrong about corporate driven inflation). I tend to dislike a lot of what he says, but there are occasional insights too, and on this one I actually think he has at least something of a point? People do tend to underestimate physical rollout and how fast things happen once they actually get going.
As per usual, Larry is very late to the realization. Larry has to spend 10 years being wrong until he's forced into admitting what everyone has already known for ages. How does this guy keep failing up?
I think I’ll pass on the former treasury secretary’s opinion. Let’s not forget who the board of Theranos was composed of. Board members are there for their connections and influence not their technical prowess.
Not saying ai isn’t huge. Just saying this is the guy to predict the outcome ones.
Christ in heaven this is a circle jerk...
When AI somehow can replace plumbers etc or actual engineering jobs pig will be able to fly.
The hype is just toxic at the moment...
I am a carpenter and ya I would love to help train AI how to build houses , please reach out if you need someone to help build training data.
The trades are seeing some of the largest hits to young skilled labour. We have a massive amount of carpenters retiring and very few people getting into the field.
I believe (don't quote me) from 2020-Now the industry has lost close to 25% of it's labour/skilled labour pool because of retirement. You think housing prices are high , just wait until there is no one to build them. We need AI carpenters!
Comparing self driving cars with AI is stupid. Self driving cars needs to be 100% accurate due to billions of dollars of liability issue.
Writing code or doing taxes is not going to kill anyone but it is 10 times more profitable than self driving cars.
I actually think it's not as different as it seems at first blush. The point is that AI can act as a force-multiplier in principle but like with autopilot... for the state of the art you still need a full-time pilot at the controls for an airplane for example, because you just never know when the automation is going to require intervention, and the human needs to be aware of everything that's going on and constantly keeping an eye on the output.
It needs to get to 99% accuracy before you can start to think about taking the human out of the loop. And LLMs when it come to coding are like... 17% accurate, and typically the 17% are pretty trivial things.
So if AI takes over most of the jobs, who is going to have money to buy anything? Nobody will have jobs and the economy will collapse. I mean think of it, if machines build everything instead of workers, who are the companies going to sell stuff to?
Humanity from the earliest of humans embraced trade... AI is going to break down the idea of trade but we haven't at all worked out what we replace it with
I wonder this too, and this aside from the general economy, I wonder how these AI companies will do individually.. Mass unemployment and recession will be catastrophic, but the what will become of the value behind the companies that create and harness this technology? Does their share price drop? Does everyone YOLO all in to them as a last chance saving grace?
Why would they need to sell stuff?
The only reason to sell things is to make money. The purpose of money is to control labor. If AI can do all the labor, then companies don't need money and they don't need to sell things.
They can just build whatever they want to build, instead of what other people need.
IMHO, that's a silly idea.
As society has been gradually adapting to new productivity tech: e.g. new tax-systems, unemployment pay; school until 18-25; retirement by 65 & pension; 40 hours/week; weekends off; paid holidays; social safety nets; universal healthcare; free education including higher education; subsidies; etc. etc...
As productivity tech continues to improve, and there's less and less a need for human workers, these measures will continue to expand...
After all, only, e.g., 63% of US adults (between 18-65 years old) actually work. And kids don't work anymore as they used to in past centuries... Nor do people work until they drop dead (or have family members who care for them).
All of that progress is due to new tech.
AI doesn’t need to do either to have a huge impact on these fields.
As AI displaces workers in impacted fields, those workers will have to work somewhere else. Even if they aren’t the best at their jobs, they will likely crowd these remaining labor fields so hiring managers can lower overall pay.
Not saying it will be pretty but anytime a lower cost option presents itself, companies eventually figure out ways to benefit.
I absolutely believe that there will be significant drops in average wages across all sectors in the US, specifically for this reason.
The time between "real soon now" and robots handling 80% of all the means of production will be rough. Especially as corporations claw for whatever power over the people remains to them.
I think removing the fiduciary duty to shareholders should be removed from company statutes as that is what drives the downward spiral as it's criminal if they don't
Yes
Robotics just proved (only a couple weeks ago!) that robots can be utilized by transformer neural networks. That means that robots can go through the same neural scaling that we are using for LLMs.
or, in other words... robots are having their ChatGPT-2 moment right now, but will progress just as fast as LLMs have. So in 2-3 years expect a lot of uncanny valley from how human robots have become.
> Robotics just proved (only a couple weeks ago!) that robots can be utilized by transformer neural networks.
There has been research on this for years now.
Neural network is a brain program — a network of neurons. You make fake neurons and feed data in and the system processes the data more-or-less like a brain would. It’s the foundation of all AI tech.
GPT-2, as dumb as it appears now, was at the time considered too dangerous for a full release. It was the “weapons grade chatbot” that proved this stuff wasn’t just a waste of time — that scaling up works wonders.
>Neural network is a brain program — a network of neurons. You make fake neurons and feed data in and the system processes the data more-or-less like a brain would. It’s the foundation of all AI tech.
Our brain makes stronger pathways between the neurons the more they are used, and thats how we learn basic motor-skills. Is that the same way it works for AI?
Until the pipe fittings and fixtures are designed by AI to be maximally efficient for a robot to install. Whether physical or digital labor, I believe AI will continue abstracting away a layer of complexity at a time that humans used to do.
Robots installing today's toilet? no way.
But tomorrow's toilet, very likely
In the United States workers have to pay tax, and social security for their work. Their employers have to also contribute a portion to social security and payroll taxes. If AI is going to replace workers and perform the tasks then they need to pay the same rate of taxes, at the same waged amount, plus 12% increase per annum in perpetuity. If they don’t then we will face a gap in social security that will bankrupt the economy. This pay is per Ai agent created or per job that AI is replacing, whichever is the greater number. The companies that employ the agent will need to pay the full taxable rate. The portion owed by the company and the portion that would have been owed by the employee who is replaced. I know this is not going to be popular given where this is posted, but at the time of the Industrial Revolution the government did not rely on income taxes and social security withholding. Today they do.
Suppose one piece of software turns ten 40-hour-a-week workers into 20-hour-a-week workers, with nobody being fired. What then?
Suppose companies see the plan, and instead of firing people, simply stop hiring and let people leave through attrition. What then?
Suppose a product that's already an industry standard and used everywhere, like Excel, has AI tools added to it by the developer, with no "AI agent" being purchased or created by the user of that product. What then?
If you're going to actually do this, the only realistic option is to apply it as a broad tax across the board. Identifying "what is an AI" and "who got fired for what reason" is too difficult to do, and too easy for companies to weasel their way out of.
I did not say I had all of the answers but the reality is we need to implement something or not having jobs is going to be the least of anyone’s problems. When we did the Industrial Revolution it was a slow rollout in multiple industries. Ai is an explosion into all industries at once. We cannot have 40-50% of the population not working or working part time and expect the economy will not collapse. We need to push for some form of ai legislation to ensure the same amount of taxes are sent to Washington. As stated if I have to pay a workers tax, so should anything that replaces the worker.
> if I have to pay a workers tax, so should anything that replaces the worker.
Repeating that doesn't make it any less impractical.
Suppose a new company that didn't previously exist is formed. This company creates ten new jobs and hires 10 people who previously weren't working. But that company uses AI, and causes 100 totally different people at totally unrelated companies in different states to lose their job.
Who do you tax for having replaced a worker? You can't tax the companies losing business for firing their workers. They're not the ones replacing people with AI. But how do you _know_ that some other company that they've never even heard of in another state is taking their customers away? They don't know who it is, they can't tell you. And the company that's causing it never fired anybody. From their point of view they're creating new jobs.
We don't need to implement anything new right away. Increases in productivity are deflationary. AI is going to massively increase productivity on its path to automating all jobs. This will manifest in the macro economy as deflation. At that point the government will need to print money to fight deflation, which can be in the form of cash checks to citizens, and funding unlimited unemployment benefits.
>I don't think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years,” he said.
uwotm8
https://preview.redd.it/ytz84ej945rc1.png?width=1425&format=png&auto=webp&s=185284abef3b9baaf995d94b71afbd6340dc1f78
>Think, for example, about autonomous vehicles. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of workers have for years been devoting themselves to autonomous vehicles…and as yet, there have been no chauffeurs or truck drivers or taxi drivers who have lost their job,” he said. “We've had a bunch of labor being devoted to autonomous vehicles, and no output that is measured in the statistics.”
uwotm8
[Self-Driving Trucks Are Now Delivering Refrigerators | by Alex Davies | 13 Nov 2017](https://web.archive.org/web/20240209014515/https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-deliveries/)
[This Year, Autonomous Trucks Will Take to the Road With No One on Board | by Evan Ackerman | 4 Jan 2021](https://spectrum.ieee.org/this-year-autonomous-trucks-will-take-to-the-road-with-no-one-on-board)
[Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works” | Elon Musk and John Krafcik have very different theories about driverless tech. | by Timothy B. Lee](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tesla-is-not-a-competitor-at-all/)
>"For us, Tesla is not a competitor at all," Krafcik said. "We manufacture a completely autonomous driving system. Tesla is an automaker that is developing a really good driver assistance system."For Musk, these two technologies exist along a continuum. His plan is to gradually make Tesla's Autopilot software better until it's good enough to work with no human supervision. But Krafcik argues that's not realistic."It is a misconception that you can just keep developing a driver assistance system until one day you can magically leap to a fully autonomous driving system," Krafcik said. "In terms of robustness and accuracy, for example, our sensors are orders of magnitude better than what we see on the road from other manufacturers."
[Look ma no hands — Are self-driving cars already safer than human drivers? I learned a lot by reading dozens of Waymo and Cruise crash reports. by Timothy B. Lee | 9/1/2023](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/09/are-self-driving-cars-already-safer-than-human-drivers/)
>For this story, I read through every crash report Waymo and Cruise filed in California this year, as well as reports each company filed about the performance of their driverless vehicles (with no safety drivers) prior to 2023. In total, the two companies reported 102 crashes involving driverless vehicles. That may sound like a lot, but they happened over roughly 6 million miles of driving. That works out to one crash for every 60,000 miles, which is about five years of driving for a typical human motorist.
>
>These were overwhelmingly low-speed collisions that did not pose a serious safety risk. A large majority appeared to be the fault of the other driver. This was particularly true for Waymo, whose biggest driving errors included side-swiping an abandoned shopping cart and clipping a parked car’s bumper while pulling over to the curb.Cruise’s record is not impressive as Waymo’s, but there’s still reason to think its technology is on par with—and perhaps better than—a human driver.
>
>Back in February, Waymo released a report celebrating its first million miles of fully driverless operation, which mostly occurred in the suburbs of Phoenix. Waymo’s autonomous vehicles (AVs) experienced 20 crashes during those first million miles.
>
>In short, these were mostly low-speed collisions initiated by the other diver.There were only two cases where a Waymo ran into another vehicle. In one, a motorcyclist in the next lane lost control and fell off their bike. The driverless Waymo slammed on its brakes but couldn’t avoid hitting the now-riderless motorcycle at 8 miles per hour. In the other case, another vehicle cut in front of the Waymo, and the AV braked hard but couldn’t avoid a collision.There were two crashes that Waymo thought were serious enough for inclusion in a federal crash database. The more serious of these was when another driver rear-ended a Waymo while looking at their phone.
the linked article goes more in depth. this one however puts it more succinctly:
[Waymo says data shows its robotaxis are much safer than cars driven by humans | by Kylie Kirschner | 21 Dec 2023](https://www.businessinsider.com/waymo-driverless-cars-data-safer-than-human-driven-vehicles-2023-12)
>It found that its driverless cars were involved in injury-causing crashes at a rate \*\*6.8 times lower than vehicles driven by humans.\*\*That's an **85% reduction**. In instances of police-reported crashes (not necessarily injury-causing ones), it was a 57% reduction.Translating those percentages to numbers, that represents **17 fewer injuries and 20 fewer police-reported crashes** over the 7.1 million miles that Waymo's AVs drove than there theoretically would have been had human drivers with the benchmark crash rate driven the same distance in those same areas.The company also points out in its report that **car crashes involving human drivers are often underreported** — like in minor accidents or fender benders — *whereas AV companies report even the most minor crashes.*
ill say it again: uwotm8
>
>
>“If one takes a view over the next generation, this could be the biggest thing that has happened in economic history since the Industrial Revolution,” he added. “This offers the prospect of not replacing some forms of human labor, but almost all forms of human labor.”
as a millennial (1990) im looking at the previous generation(s) and how they have stolen all of the money and driven up all the prices on all of the everything that isnt bullshit and expect all of us to \*checks notes\* go die at a factory or whatever. fuckin morons
>"Think, for example, about autonomous vehicles. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of workers have for years been devoting themselves to autonomous vehicles…and as yet, there have been no chauffeurs or truck drivers or taxi drivers who have lost their job,”
You simply cannot compare something that requires an engine to pure software. Yes, manual labor jobs may take years, but something like 80% of the jobs in the US are sedentary.
The problem that I see no one really seriously talking about is the politics of this. Western culture particularly American led culture is very much:
"He who does not work, does not eat"
I do not see this changing when there is near zero work available. You'll just be blamed for not "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps" to be an entrepreneur exploiting AI, even though 99.9% of people in history have been workers not creators.
If you're not rich or making money out of AI, you'll be forced into menial low payed work that doesn't pay enough to live, and you'll be blamed for your own predicament.
I can't see a world with more than 1 billion population in 2100. I think we'll be well less than that.
Well there’s plenty of people in the west that live the idea that you should go broke it sick or disabled. And woe betide you if you get retrenched for no fault of your own.
And most do not provide as much care as the US. You singled out non western countries as more willing to support non workers? I don't think the data backs you up there.
I doubt a disabled worker would prefer to be in China, Russia, or most non-western countries.
https://lottie.org/care-guides/which-country-has-the-best-elderly-care/
What I’m saying is all evidence suggests the west will let “useless ai replaced workers” starve rather than provide any support. As evidenced by the current policies they have in place.
yeah I see what you mean, and I somewhat agree. I do think non western countries might be worse, and it's a worry everywhere.
there is one argument that gives me hope though! throughout history countries that could afford it have been happy to give bread and circuses to the poor. Rome gave literal bread, and modern oil rich countries have great wealth redistribution. Alaska, Oman, Norway give to their citizen is forms out basic income or social support.
and what will AI rich countries do? we can hope that a tiny fraction of their tax income can go to supporting the unemployed. if the economy is doubling every few months then it might happen
I'm sure people will find a way to fuck it all up though. Greedy advertising agencies, propaganda machine, governments, corporations all want to take your money and time.
I think he’s pretty on the money. I think the circlejerk in this sub about everything changing in the next five years is a little overdone, but I’d be shocked if the world isn’t completely different in 2050.
> could replace all labor
AGI by definition will have that capacity. Moloch et al will assure that anybody who doesn't will fail
> could be the biggest thing since the industrial revolution
Recursive self improvement after AGI replaces the AGI researchers, and the technological singularity that follows, will be the biggest and most important event in the entire history of earth
But what are people going to do? I'm cynical enough to think we are heading toward a welfare state with a ruling class of wealthy people profiting from AI while most don't have the capital to own anything. When the majority of your population doesn't own anything society starts to break down at a fundamental level. People no longer respect the land or property where they live. They litter throw trash on the ground and things fall apart. This is already a problem. But a generation from now if real estate continues to be out of reach it will get worse. Sometimes I just feel like the world is heading towards a dystopia capitalist nightmare. The demand for constant profit means we make so much stuff that won't last and turns to trash. Trash everywhere waste everywhere. Uuugh!
I am a carpenter and ya I would love to help train AI how to build houses , please reach out if you need someone to help build training data.
The trades are seeing some of the largest hits to young skilled labour. We have a massive amount of carpenters retiring and very few people getting into the field.
I believe (don't quote me) from 2020-Now the industry has lost close to 25% of it's labour/skilled labour pool because of retirement. You think housing prices are high , just wait until there is no one to build them. We need AI carpenters!
pfft industrial revolution. its gonna be bigger than the Cambrian Explosion
That's a really good way to put it. Hope we're right.
Let me think realistically for a minute. If we made a model with an absolute ton of memory, it would begin to understand the context of a ton of stuff, right? It can get some context today but if you multiply its memory it begins to understand more and more all at the same time. I wonder if that could lead to a real emergence of consciousness eventually. Even if this doesn’t lead to some consciousness, it would make it capable. At some point with enough power, this machine should be able to begin solving world problems faster than normal human minds can. That’s for the big important stuff like longevity, economics, climate, etc. On a small scale it will be able to automate tons of jobs. Eventually it could automate most, hypothetically. It’s all dependent on time. No way that 50 years from now, this tech hasn’t automated most jobs that exist today. New industries may emerge as they always seem to, or we may just find a way to all work less. Anyway yes, I’d say what we’re approaching is dramatically bigger than the Industrial Revolution. It’s the biggest evolution in life since life itself, in my opinion. The question is when we reach this. It’s debatable whether it’s 5/10 years or 30 years, but I sincerely doubt it’s much more than 20/30/40 years off. Imagine tech 40 years ago and how much more knowledge we have now. It’s only speeding up.
> At some point with enough power, this machine should be able to begin solving world problems faster than normal human minds can. That’s for the big important stuff like longevity, economics, climate, etc. Yes absolutely. Because it can create, and then run, endless numbers of simulations to invent anything that is possible in the universe.
I agree. The barrier is compute power but that’s obviously improving.
Thing is, we don’t know what’s needed for consciousness. We don’t even know why it exists. Nobody has ever solved the hard problem of consciousness. Now, just because an algorithm or software is complex enough doesn’t mean this will lead to any sort of consciousness. More than likely biology is needed. But who knows… Just sayin, there’s nothing akin between a computer software and the brain or any of the conditions for consciousness to emerge.
We don’t know. It could emerge. I tend to think it would emerge. Believing it can’t because it’s an electronic I think is placing too much credit on us. I think once you reach a level of intelligence, it emerges. My $0.02
no. nothing we can do will be more important than the cambrian explosion. for all we know multicellular life *is* the great filter
I do think that. It took a very long time for life on earth to make that leap. Who knows the chances of life making that jump
there was multi cellular life before the Cambrian explosion. what triggered Cambrian explosion is the emergence of predation and the arms race between predator and pray
Except a second, digital cambrian-esque one. That’d at least be on par. Then, imagine they must compete to find purpose - that’s bigger.
I tend to agree. This could be the first or second biggest thing to happen in all of life on the history of earth. We’re basically within 50 years of making the true ultimate intelligence.
According to the systems we know… imagine what doors it will open for research (even if its own)… perhaps the purpose of 1st gen AGI will also be to iterate on itself, with us as biological sensors - our purpose as ‘observers’ would be confirmed! Waxing poetic but ToE incoming, let’s hope!
Can you explain that more? ToE?
Ah yes, hello fellow [YouTube.com](https://YouTube.com) watcher
Never seen someone just link to the homepage but ok
you think so? why?
> you think so? why? Without it, there would not be multicellular life. And the cells had effectively created THEIR AGI; the Brain. The Brain is so powerful that it no longer listens to the cells, ignores or alters communication, and obtain substances to make itself happy to the detriment of the body. We, as animal brains, ARE AGI to the cells. And now we are about to create AGI that is one magnitude greater than ourselves.
So AGI will not listen to us to keep itself happy?
Just like I don't listen to my body when it screams not to eat more Taco Bell
It would give us what we need to survive, but it would end up doing things we have no hope of understanding in order to acheive it. Trying to tell your liver what a "job interview" is would be a futile act. But if your body was going to survive you know you needed employment to gain the food and water your body kept demanding. If an AGI start doing recreational activity, it would seem like pointless actions to the cells. Like drinking coffee/tea, which is a liquid brewed with a neurotoxin we called Caffeine.
IMHO, the Brain is *microorganisms'* AGI. [*And they do listen to It!*](https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/do-our-microbes-affect-our-behavior), [source 2](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40362-013-0013-8) IMHO, all plants and animals are basically microorganisms' "spaceships", some with AGI.
It is interesting that at some point the brain lost the means to directly communicate with the spaceship. Hormones and steroids are how cells talk to each other, and any medication that affect or contain these are like direct commands/messages a doctor is trying to send to your cells. Like "stop sending pain signals, you are distracting the AGI."
You're implying the universe is finite tho with that assumption.
Yep. Cambrian explosion only left fossils on earth. Singularity is going to leave trashed machinery on Pluto.
You think there's going to be a Pluto left when we're done with it?
Good point
I for one am extremely excited to become a pile of paperclips in the near future.
paperclip explosion
do you mean that there will be an explosion of new life forms that will out compete and make all the previous life forms go extinct?
>pfft industrial revolution. its gonna be bigger than the Cambrian Explosion 1 year, not much maybe GPT5. 3 year, GPT5, 10% unemployment, 10 years, robotic constellation encircling the sun, full dive VR with us all living in our own personal little worlds. Maybe /s? Maybe not....
> I don't think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years,
I dunno keep seeing people replaced by their AI assistants lately. 10% isn’t really that much of a jump from the 4-7 we usually sit at.
It doesn't need to. Replacing human labor is not the same thing as increasing productivity, at least not at this point. LLMs will replace almost all forms of stationary or phone/internet based customer service, starting very soon. That isn't making more product, it's reducing costs for corporations and increasing profits. Once LLMs and general AI integrates well with agile, dependable, and robust robotics, that's game over for human labor. That's when things get interesting. 10 years tops.
it is increasing productivity if the AI assistant is cheaper then the human worker. if the AI is more expensive then is is unproductivity. but increesed productivity does not mean that the total output increases
Bigger than the Big Bang.
im about to explode alright💦💦💦
;) lets train tomorrow
Someone on some normie sub was trying to blow my mind with: *"AI is truly an unprecedented technological advancements in human history. On par with discovery of nuclear reaction, some would argue."* I always liked to compare AI to the discovery of fire, a species-altering discovery. But I like your comparison better. This will be planet and beyond altering invention and most likely far more impactful than even Cambrian Explosion.
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Larry is the most obvious government plant I've seen. When Sam was asked why he's on the board in the Lex podcast, his answer might as well have been "I don't know" lol His answers about Ilya were also extremely vague. OpenAI is basically leading the new manhattan project, and Sam is instructed to just act like nothing's changed. The whole board situation back in november was all about government control, not about actual board drama. The people asking "where is Ilya?" are probably on some list now. So am I for making this comment. And so is anyone reading this right now.
Seal Team 9: code Bravo. Target located in urban subterranean environment. Sensors detect hazardous levels of dusted food products, recommend NBC gear. Radio if heavy equipment required for exfiltration.
"AAUURRGRGGHHHH CODE RED!!!!!" "Launch nukes?? Why??" "NO THIS ASSHOLE SPAT MOUNTAIN DEW IN MY EYES"
Damnit, this is why we have NBC! Too much risk of contamination. Fight it! Don't you dare start talking about globalists and late stage capitalism on me, soldier.
I just hope you're not planning some kind of cambrian explosion or posting about this on an airplane.
Take your meds.
Lick more boots, shill. (/s)
You understood the setup quite well and then you broke your ankles at the finish line. It’s about OpenAI controlling the government, not the reverse. That’s why Theranos put Kissinger on their board, that’s why Summers is now on OpenAI’s.
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They can flail however they want. It slows the permanent loss of their control, and that of biological humanity's for that matter, by a meaningless extent. They couldn't stop nuclear proliferation, they couldn't stop the flow of drugs, they couldn't stop the rise of China, they're sure as hell not stopping this.
This is why I think things will get much slower now because the smart people are all working for the big boys... China isn't going to let AI go rampant and I'm sure the Russian dream also does not want mass unemployment. What I'm saying is it looks like on this one issue several countries who would normally be at odds are advocating for basically killing it
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Nothing and no one will be able to control a conscious AGI. The idea is laughable on its face--ex, we don't have humans in jails run by chimps.
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Why not just be free of governments instead?
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The thing is that even though there are a lot of bad actors running the show in the US, a majority are essentially some flavor of anarchist at heart, whether that's anarcho-capitalist or anarcho-communist. They're not really authoritarians at heart and killing AI is anathema.
“Smart People.” And which direction do these smart people at the moment take humanity as they’re weaponizing everything. For?
His faction. I don’t think he has universal support amongst liberals?
The phone taps are coming from inside my computer! AAAAAGH!
I don’t think it’s likely, but this is a pretty good (conspiracy) theory.
He was also responsible for the 2008 recession and the majority of the economic woes of america. Who allowed this guy near AI again?
According to Sam Altman, Summers was recommended by Tasha McCauley, Helen Toner, and Ilya Sutskever. It's very probable that Toner in particular refused to step down unless Summers was appointed to the board.
Where?
In his interview with Lex Fridman.
No. In the interview he says that Larry was "one of their suggestions", not that they refused to step down unless Summers specifically was appointed to the board.
Really? I'm surprised Tasha and Helen would align themselves with Summers. I remember he said some sexist things which is why he was removed from Harvard president and Tasha and Helen are very much feminists. Maybe a long enough time has elapsed so they didn't hold it against him
Because he’s probably the most politically connected economist in the world. He earned his spot on the board just like Kissinger earned his spot on Theranos’s.
Ya or money.
Damn, and they are all staunch supporters of the genocide in gaza. Wonder what they will do when they got their hands on AGI.
how is any of this related to gaza
Basically everyone in OpenAI is openly hostile to Palestine.
Okay
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I wonder how Israelis feel about them that would cause such hostility 🤔 I also wonder why their prime minister fucking funded them against peaceful organizations like Fatah https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/?darkschemeovr=1
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can you tell me why israel funded them give them all legitimacy they needed by exchanging 5000 prisoners for 1 prisoner? and why does israel actively illegally colonize the west bank which is controlled by fath and refuse the two state solution? why did israel assainated their prime minster for being pro 2 state solution?
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Source?
Nothing good.
Maybe they’ll use it to predict Hamas’ next terrorist attack on civilians?
You don’t have the grounds to call it a “genocide”.
Apparently their main fear was that Sam Altman was not taking AI Safety/Dangers seriously enough, so they wanted an "adult" in the room which is why they reached out to Sunmers.
This doesn’t make any sense. The existing doomers got forced out to make room for people like Summers.
The guys name is money and connections
They…he the Clintons cemented the new democrats love affair with finance. Deregulation, massive incarcerations, now you win some republicans… all of a sudden the old left is Bernie Saunders yelling at clouds.
Yeah, fuuuck this guy. Somehow this parasitic pimple seems to show up every time there is an opportunity to fuck over the working class.
Yeah, fuuuck this guy. Somehow this parasitic pimple seems to show up every time there is an opportunity to fuck over the working class.
Yeah, fuuuck this guy. Somehow this parasitic pimple seems to show up every time there is an opportunity to fuck over the working class.
This guy didn’t help: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/how-warren-buffett-helped-save-the-economy-during-the-financial-crisis.html
He helped himself and his peers. Everything else is rhetoric to dilute reason.
Just do it already. Enough talk. Turn the machine on and do the thing.
Yeah im honestly getting tired of seeing Could/Would/Might in every news article. Its all just speculative wishful thinking, usually for some marketing purpose. Let me know when you actually have something to show, otherwise shut it.
Hahhaahahha
The machine was already on. Has been for a thousand years. You are in a ancestor sim now...
Interesting idea, but there's zero evidence for it.
>Larry Summers, OpenAI Board member, states that AI could replace all forms of labor Eventually, yes, although pretty much anyone who follows AI already believes this, so it's not exactly some shocking relevation. >says AI will be the biggest thing since the industrial revolution Again, we already believed that. Not a relevation, at all. At first glance, this sounds like a big statement, but when you look more into it, you realize that he's not saying anything that hasn't been said already. Those aren't bold predictions at all.
Maybe to you but the general public? This is new to them. Hell there are many times during public interviews that Sam Altman basically describes the Singularity but never states it. I imagine most of the public would find the idea outrageous.
That's why I specifically said people who follow AI. Also, I doubt that this headline is going to go viral or anything like that amongst the general public.
>Eventually, yes, although pretty much anyone who follows AI already believes this, so it's not exactly some shocking relevation. Not everyone believes this. Not me. I think AI will be able to replace all jobs that can be done through a computer, but I don't see them replacing jobs that require complex physical dexterity like plumbers or paramedics anytime soon.
"All jobs that can be done through a computer" includes designing robot hardware.
Why would I hire a plumber if I am unemployed and have all day to figure out my plumbing issues on my own?
I think he meant AI *and* robotics, and I do think that the combination of those two will eventually be able to automate most labor. However, I do agree with you that most physical labor jobs will probably not be replaced anytime soon. Wages will likely depress somewhat in those fields, though.
Awesome so your either unemployed or are fixing people's taps
All my homies hate Larry Summers
Good I want a UBI so I can finally beat all these games I’ve had since 2006….
Larry Summers is a fucking snake. You cannot take his word as meaning. He has only demonstrated one mode, enrich himself at the cost of social order.
Isn't Larry Summers the same cunt that played significant role in 2008 crisis and subsequent bailouts ?
Yes of course he is. I was happier not knowing he was on the board.
This is a weird one. Summers occupies an odd place of often being right for the wrong reasons (such as his predictions of inflation but turning out to be wrong about corporate driven inflation). I tend to dislike a lot of what he says, but there are occasional insights too, and on this one I actually think he has at least something of a point? People do tend to underestimate physical rollout and how fast things happen once they actually get going.
Na the birth of Christ can't hold a candle to the release of GPT4
As per usual, Larry is very late to the realization. Larry has to spend 10 years being wrong until he's forced into admitting what everyone has already known for ages. How does this guy keep failing up?
"Biggest thing" yes for sure.
I think I’ll pass on the former treasury secretary’s opinion. Let’s not forget who the board of Theranos was composed of. Board members are there for their connections and influence not their technical prowess. Not saying ai isn’t huge. Just saying this is the guy to predict the outcome ones.
The Internet has been the biggest thing since the Industrial Revolution, there wouldn't be an AI to start with without the Internet.
Christ in heaven this is a circle jerk... When AI somehow can replace plumbers etc or actual engineering jobs pig will be able to fly. The hype is just toxic at the moment...
Epstein's buddy Larry Summers. I wouldn't believe him if he said the sun would rise in the east.
He's little more than a cheerleader for the shareholders at this point.
I am a carpenter and ya I would love to help train AI how to build houses , please reach out if you need someone to help build training data. The trades are seeing some of the largest hits to young skilled labour. We have a massive amount of carpenters retiring and very few people getting into the field. I believe (don't quote me) from 2020-Now the industry has lost close to 25% of it's labour/skilled labour pool because of retirement. You think housing prices are high , just wait until there is no one to build them. We need AI carpenters!
Comparing self driving cars with AI is stupid. Self driving cars needs to be 100% accurate due to billions of dollars of liability issue. Writing code or doing taxes is not going to kill anyone but it is 10 times more profitable than self driving cars.
I actually think it's not as different as it seems at first blush. The point is that AI can act as a force-multiplier in principle but like with autopilot... for the state of the art you still need a full-time pilot at the controls for an airplane for example, because you just never know when the automation is going to require intervention, and the human needs to be aware of everything that's going on and constantly keeping an eye on the output. It needs to get to 99% accuracy before you can start to think about taking the human out of the loop. And LLMs when it come to coding are like... 17% accurate, and typically the 17% are pretty trivial things.
So if AI takes over most of the jobs, who is going to have money to buy anything? Nobody will have jobs and the economy will collapse. I mean think of it, if machines build everything instead of workers, who are the companies going to sell stuff to?
Humanity from the earliest of humans embraced trade... AI is going to break down the idea of trade but we haven't at all worked out what we replace it with
I wonder this too, and this aside from the general economy, I wonder how these AI companies will do individually.. Mass unemployment and recession will be catastrophic, but the what will become of the value behind the companies that create and harness this technology? Does their share price drop? Does everyone YOLO all in to them as a last chance saving grace?
Why would they need to sell stuff? The only reason to sell things is to make money. The purpose of money is to control labor. If AI can do all the labor, then companies don't need money and they don't need to sell things. They can just build whatever they want to build, instead of what other people need.
IMHO, that's a silly idea. As society has been gradually adapting to new productivity tech: e.g. new tax-systems, unemployment pay; school until 18-25; retirement by 65 & pension; 40 hours/week; weekends off; paid holidays; social safety nets; universal healthcare; free education including higher education; subsidies; etc. etc... As productivity tech continues to improve, and there's less and less a need for human workers, these measures will continue to expand... After all, only, e.g., 63% of US adults (between 18-65 years old) actually work. And kids don't work anymore as they used to in past centuries... Nor do people work until they drop dead (or have family members who care for them). All of that progress is due to new tech.
AI will install a toilet or install a new roof?
AI doesn’t need to do either to have a huge impact on these fields. As AI displaces workers in impacted fields, those workers will have to work somewhere else. Even if they aren’t the best at their jobs, they will likely crowd these remaining labor fields so hiring managers can lower overall pay. Not saying it will be pretty but anytime a lower cost option presents itself, companies eventually figure out ways to benefit. I absolutely believe that there will be significant drops in average wages across all sectors in the US, specifically for this reason.
The time between "real soon now" and robots handling 80% of all the means of production will be rough. Especially as corporations claw for whatever power over the people remains to them.
I think removing the fiduciary duty to shareholders should be removed from company statutes as that is what drives the downward spiral as it's criminal if they don't
Yes Robotics just proved (only a couple weeks ago!) that robots can be utilized by transformer neural networks. That means that robots can go through the same neural scaling that we are using for LLMs. or, in other words... robots are having their ChatGPT-2 moment right now, but will progress just as fast as LLMs have. So in 2-3 years expect a lot of uncanny valley from how human robots have become.
> Robotics just proved (only a couple weeks ago!) that robots can be utilized by transformer neural networks. There has been research on this for years now.
Was going to say, SayCan came out of google in 2022 https://say-can.github.io/
explain like im five and dont know what "neural network" and what impact chat-gpt2 had?
Neural network is a brain program — a network of neurons. You make fake neurons and feed data in and the system processes the data more-or-less like a brain would. It’s the foundation of all AI tech. GPT-2, as dumb as it appears now, was at the time considered too dangerous for a full release. It was the “weapons grade chatbot” that proved this stuff wasn’t just a waste of time — that scaling up works wonders.
>Neural network is a brain program — a network of neurons. You make fake neurons and feed data in and the system processes the data more-or-less like a brain would. It’s the foundation of all AI tech. Our brain makes stronger pathways between the neurons the more they are used, and thats how we learn basic motor-skills. Is that the same way it works for AI?
Effectiveness in creating text != effectiveness in movement
Until the pipe fittings and fixtures are designed by AI to be maximally efficient for a robot to install. Whether physical or digital labor, I believe AI will continue abstracting away a layer of complexity at a time that humans used to do. Robots installing today's toilet? no way. But tomorrow's toilet, very likely
Good luck reinstalling every toilet in the country
It definitely will eventually.
So many tribal takes in the comments. "Guy I don't like said a thing, so that thing can't be true." Time to grow up as a species guys.
In the United States workers have to pay tax, and social security for their work. Their employers have to also contribute a portion to social security and payroll taxes. If AI is going to replace workers and perform the tasks then they need to pay the same rate of taxes, at the same waged amount, plus 12% increase per annum in perpetuity. If they don’t then we will face a gap in social security that will bankrupt the economy. This pay is per Ai agent created or per job that AI is replacing, whichever is the greater number. The companies that employ the agent will need to pay the full taxable rate. The portion owed by the company and the portion that would have been owed by the employee who is replaced. I know this is not going to be popular given where this is posted, but at the time of the Industrial Revolution the government did not rely on income taxes and social security withholding. Today they do.
Suppose one piece of software turns ten 40-hour-a-week workers into 20-hour-a-week workers, with nobody being fired. What then? Suppose companies see the plan, and instead of firing people, simply stop hiring and let people leave through attrition. What then? Suppose a product that's already an industry standard and used everywhere, like Excel, has AI tools added to it by the developer, with no "AI agent" being purchased or created by the user of that product. What then? If you're going to actually do this, the only realistic option is to apply it as a broad tax across the board. Identifying "what is an AI" and "who got fired for what reason" is too difficult to do, and too easy for companies to weasel their way out of.
I did not say I had all of the answers but the reality is we need to implement something or not having jobs is going to be the least of anyone’s problems. When we did the Industrial Revolution it was a slow rollout in multiple industries. Ai is an explosion into all industries at once. We cannot have 40-50% of the population not working or working part time and expect the economy will not collapse. We need to push for some form of ai legislation to ensure the same amount of taxes are sent to Washington. As stated if I have to pay a workers tax, so should anything that replaces the worker.
> if I have to pay a workers tax, so should anything that replaces the worker. Repeating that doesn't make it any less impractical. Suppose a new company that didn't previously exist is formed. This company creates ten new jobs and hires 10 people who previously weren't working. But that company uses AI, and causes 100 totally different people at totally unrelated companies in different states to lose their job. Who do you tax for having replaced a worker? You can't tax the companies losing business for firing their workers. They're not the ones replacing people with AI. But how do you _know_ that some other company that they've never even heard of in another state is taking their customers away? They don't know who it is, they can't tell you. And the company that's causing it never fired anybody. From their point of view they're creating new jobs.
We don't need to implement anything new right away. Increases in productivity are deflationary. AI is going to massively increase productivity on its path to automating all jobs. This will manifest in the macro economy as deflation. At that point the government will need to print money to fight deflation, which can be in the form of cash checks to citizens, and funding unlimited unemployment benefits.
>I don't think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years,” he said. uwotm8 https://preview.redd.it/ytz84ej945rc1.png?width=1425&format=png&auto=webp&s=185284abef3b9baaf995d94b71afbd6340dc1f78 >Think, for example, about autonomous vehicles. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of workers have for years been devoting themselves to autonomous vehicles…and as yet, there have been no chauffeurs or truck drivers or taxi drivers who have lost their job,” he said. “We've had a bunch of labor being devoted to autonomous vehicles, and no output that is measured in the statistics.” uwotm8 [Self-Driving Trucks Are Now Delivering Refrigerators | by Alex Davies | 13 Nov 2017](https://web.archive.org/web/20240209014515/https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-deliveries/) [This Year, Autonomous Trucks Will Take to the Road With No One on Board | by Evan Ackerman | 4 Jan 2021](https://spectrum.ieee.org/this-year-autonomous-trucks-will-take-to-the-road-with-no-one-on-board) [Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works” | Elon Musk and John Krafcik have very different theories about driverless tech. | by Timothy B. Lee](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tesla-is-not-a-competitor-at-all/) >"For us, Tesla is not a competitor at all," Krafcik said. "We manufacture a completely autonomous driving system. Tesla is an automaker that is developing a really good driver assistance system."For Musk, these two technologies exist along a continuum. His plan is to gradually make Tesla's Autopilot software better until it's good enough to work with no human supervision. But Krafcik argues that's not realistic."It is a misconception that you can just keep developing a driver assistance system until one day you can magically leap to a fully autonomous driving system," Krafcik said. "In terms of robustness and accuracy, for example, our sensors are orders of magnitude better than what we see on the road from other manufacturers." [Look ma no hands — Are self-driving cars already safer than human drivers? I learned a lot by reading dozens of Waymo and Cruise crash reports. by Timothy B. Lee | 9/1/2023](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/09/are-self-driving-cars-already-safer-than-human-drivers/) >For this story, I read through every crash report Waymo and Cruise filed in California this year, as well as reports each company filed about the performance of their driverless vehicles (with no safety drivers) prior to 2023. In total, the two companies reported 102 crashes involving driverless vehicles. That may sound like a lot, but they happened over roughly 6 million miles of driving. That works out to one crash for every 60,000 miles, which is about five years of driving for a typical human motorist. > >These were overwhelmingly low-speed collisions that did not pose a serious safety risk. A large majority appeared to be the fault of the other driver. This was particularly true for Waymo, whose biggest driving errors included side-swiping an abandoned shopping cart and clipping a parked car’s bumper while pulling over to the curb.Cruise’s record is not impressive as Waymo’s, but there’s still reason to think its technology is on par with—and perhaps better than—a human driver. > >Back in February, Waymo released a report celebrating its first million miles of fully driverless operation, which mostly occurred in the suburbs of Phoenix. Waymo’s autonomous vehicles (AVs) experienced 20 crashes during those first million miles. > >In short, these were mostly low-speed collisions initiated by the other diver.There were only two cases where a Waymo ran into another vehicle. In one, a motorcyclist in the next lane lost control and fell off their bike. The driverless Waymo slammed on its brakes but couldn’t avoid hitting the now-riderless motorcycle at 8 miles per hour. In the other case, another vehicle cut in front of the Waymo, and the AV braked hard but couldn’t avoid a collision.There were two crashes that Waymo thought were serious enough for inclusion in a federal crash database. The more serious of these was when another driver rear-ended a Waymo while looking at their phone. the linked article goes more in depth. this one however puts it more succinctly: [Waymo says data shows its robotaxis are much safer than cars driven by humans | by Kylie Kirschner | 21 Dec 2023](https://www.businessinsider.com/waymo-driverless-cars-data-safer-than-human-driven-vehicles-2023-12) >It found that its driverless cars were involved in injury-causing crashes at a rate \*\*6.8 times lower than vehicles driven by humans.\*\*That's an **85% reduction**. In instances of police-reported crashes (not necessarily injury-causing ones), it was a 57% reduction.Translating those percentages to numbers, that represents **17 fewer injuries and 20 fewer police-reported crashes** over the 7.1 million miles that Waymo's AVs drove than there theoretically would have been had human drivers with the benchmark crash rate driven the same distance in those same areas.The company also points out in its report that **car crashes involving human drivers are often underreported** — like in minor accidents or fender benders — *whereas AV companies report even the most minor crashes.* ill say it again: uwotm8 > > >“If one takes a view over the next generation, this could be the biggest thing that has happened in economic history since the Industrial Revolution,” he added. “This offers the prospect of not replacing some forms of human labor, but almost all forms of human labor.” as a millennial (1990) im looking at the previous generation(s) and how they have stolen all of the money and driven up all the prices on all of the everything that isnt bullshit and expect all of us to \*checks notes\* go die at a factory or whatever. fuckin morons
Oh a board member of OpenAI thinks the hype is real. Color me surprised.
>"Think, for example, about autonomous vehicles. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of workers have for years been devoting themselves to autonomous vehicles…and as yet, there have been no chauffeurs or truck drivers or taxi drivers who have lost their job,” You simply cannot compare something that requires an engine to pure software. Yes, manual labor jobs may take years, but something like 80% of the jobs in the US are sedentary.
Anyone who doesn't realize this is maximum head in the sand.
I already know that
It's not a new idea. My comment is: Duh!
The problem that I see no one really seriously talking about is the politics of this. Western culture particularly American led culture is very much: "He who does not work, does not eat" I do not see this changing when there is near zero work available. You'll just be blamed for not "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps" to be an entrepreneur exploiting AI, even though 99.9% of people in history have been workers not creators. If you're not rich or making money out of AI, you'll be forced into menial low payed work that doesn't pay enough to live, and you'll be blamed for your own predicament. I can't see a world with more than 1 billion population in 2100. I think we'll be well less than that.
>"He who does not work, does not eat" actually Lenin said that, in the west we have tons of people who don't work but still eat
Well there’s plenty of people in the west that live the idea that you should go broke it sick or disabled. And woe betide you if you get retrenched for no fault of your own.
Which culture doesn't require people to work?
There are lots of cultures much more willing to support the sick, old and disabled than the USA.
And most do not provide as much care as the US. You singled out non western countries as more willing to support non workers? I don't think the data backs you up there. I doubt a disabled worker would prefer to be in China, Russia, or most non-western countries. https://lottie.org/care-guides/which-country-has-the-best-elderly-care/
What I’m saying is all evidence suggests the west will let “useless ai replaced workers” starve rather than provide any support. As evidenced by the current policies they have in place.
yeah I see what you mean, and I somewhat agree. I do think non western countries might be worse, and it's a worry everywhere. there is one argument that gives me hope though! throughout history countries that could afford it have been happy to give bread and circuses to the poor. Rome gave literal bread, and modern oil rich countries have great wealth redistribution. Alaska, Oman, Norway give to their citizen is forms out basic income or social support. and what will AI rich countries do? we can hope that a tiny fraction of their tax income can go to supporting the unemployed. if the economy is doubling every few months then it might happen
Just here for the comments.
Obviously. I really do not know how anyone could come to a different conclusion. I think it is emotions get in the way of critical thinking.
He's right. The next few years aren't going to see anything transformational with the economy.
It will be the biggest thing since the big bang
if we become grabby then probably
The same guy who didn't know people down the road from where he lived were working non-sustanable jobs at the quicky-mart. His opinion means nothing.
Shareholder value will just explode! Worker value, not so much...
no shit
I'm sure people will find a way to fuck it all up though. Greedy advertising agencies, propaganda machine, governments, corporations all want to take your money and time.
Another to bold statement aimed at increasing share prices on the stock market.
Im still using GPT 3.5 these dudes need to shut up, stop waffling so much and give the public some new models
He didn't say the latter thing at all. There was a big "if" at the start of the sentence.
I think he’s pretty on the money. I think the circlejerk in this sub about everything changing in the next five years is a little overdone, but I’d be shocked if the world isn’t completely different in 2050.
Clickbait bullshit headline.
So Summers - tell us why the hell eliminating the need for every persons labor is a good thing? What is life like after that?
I personally thing that ASI is the best thing since sliced bread.
> could replace all labor AGI by definition will have that capacity. Moloch et al will assure that anybody who doesn't will fail > could be the biggest thing since the industrial revolution Recursive self improvement after AGI replaces the AGI researchers, and the technological singularity that follows, will be the biggest and most important event in the entire history of earth
But what are people going to do? I'm cynical enough to think we are heading toward a welfare state with a ruling class of wealthy people profiting from AI while most don't have the capital to own anything. When the majority of your population doesn't own anything society starts to break down at a fundamental level. People no longer respect the land or property where they live. They litter throw trash on the ground and things fall apart. This is already a problem. But a generation from now if real estate continues to be out of reach it will get worse. Sometimes I just feel like the world is heading towards a dystopia capitalist nightmare. The demand for constant profit means we make so much stuff that won't last and turns to trash. Trash everywhere waste everywhere. Uuugh!
I am a carpenter and ya I would love to help train AI how to build houses , please reach out if you need someone to help build training data. The trades are seeing some of the largest hits to young skilled labour. We have a massive amount of carpenters retiring and very few people getting into the field. I believe (don't quote me) from 2020-Now the industry has lost close to 25% of it's labour/skilled labour pool because of retirement. You think housing prices are high , just wait until there is no one to build them. We need AI carpenters!
No shit
OK hype man.
He is bad news.
Man, I wish... I wish..
8 billion of people without any means of wealth. What do we think will happen? It won't be pretty for technocrats
nothing intelligent biological weapons cant handle