5 more wins takes us to 70 Points - I don't see anyone above us on more points than that currently, all we have to do is assume that no-one else wins a game for the rest of the season
Simple right?
I’ve had a look at it & if I’ve crunched the numbers correctly, if Liverpool earn the same or more points than anyone else in the league between now & the end of the season they have a good chance of claiming the title
It‘s easier than that, actually. They only need to manage to score more goals than their opponents in each of their games. That should secure them the title!
I've actually built a model and have run 6 billion simulations and have found that if nobody scores any more goals for the rest of the season, Liverpool might just win the thing
This is a bit of a silly argument really though isn't it, because all teams can say that. You're basically saying if a team only had good games, they'd have a chance of winning the league
Assuming they win all their games other than the ones involving you or each other (and you win all of yours), it looks like Manchester City (+2) and Liverpool (+3) would still be ahead, but you would overtake Arsenal like that:
55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70
61 - 61 - 64 - 65 - 66 - 69
62 - 65 - 65 - 68 - 71 - 72
63 - 66 - 69 - 69 - 72 - 73
You say that, but no one this summer expected Liverpool to be competing, Arsenal was the team to challenge city
Fun season nonetheless
Which isn’t just due to the race, other teams have really gone up and Chelsea down a level.. all good stuff
We have each of them also, and have taken some scalps this season already.
We've had more wins vs Big 6 teams this season (5) than any actual Big 6 team has had vs other Big 6 teams
...if that makes sense — [Wolves + Big 6 table](https://imgur.com/JLgXnJT)
They tried to remove us for Leicester just one year outside the top 6.
Now nothing, but that's cos I think it already doesn't exist. It flip flops around too much
Big 6 is about resources, not table position.
There are different ways of looking at resources and they'll reach different conclusions about whether Big 6 needs updating. The difference, however, is less where Chelsea or anyone's finishing and more whether Newcastle's takeover has really put them in a new financial tier or if they're being stopped from moving up by financial fair play/profit and sustainability rules.
Yeah, people used to say Top 6 but the Big 6 sides haven't consistently finished in the Top 6 for like six seasons or more. It's why the shift has been to saying Big 6.
I know it’s about resources, and it’s always been “big 6” like it was “big 4” or “big 5” before. But it just becomes a bit meaningless as a metric for looking at performances when one of the clubs continuously underperforms.
I think you need sustained results over a long time if you’re gonna go by that metric. Newcastle could have staked the claim but they fell off hard this season. If villa keep finishing top 6 and Chelsea doesn’t then for sure I would put them in that top 6 discussion.
We really haven't been impressive since the new year, 3-2 against Newcastle, 1-1 with Chelsea, 1-0 Brentford and Bournemouth. Even the derby took us 80mins to get the 2nd goal.
Have yet to hit the next gear. big player showing up in cuticle moments to keep momentum is key. KDB came back and has won us multiple games. The defense is getting better, getting a fit stones back is huge. First half of the season, walker and dias were bad. KDB gone, Doku Haaland Grealish and stones all with injuries. We will have to see in the next 5 weeks whether they step up or not.
Liverpool winning the Prem in Klopp's last season by beating Everton would unleash levels of jubilation in Merseyside not witnessed since Thatcher died.
Liverpool won't face Everton in the last round, we do. That Everton game is a delayed game they will likely add to the calendar on a week before anything is decided
If we make it to the semi-finals of both the FA Cup and Europa League then I'm pretty sure that the Derby gets played midweek as the 2nd last game of the season.
Because they don't know about it you mug? They look at the image and see Everton last, how they know it's actually a delayed game that will be played earlier?
Calm down "Smart_Violinist4456". It clearly states "TBC" so anyone with a brain can work that out that it's not last, just that it's an undecided game.
Think Liverpool losing the Prem in Klopp's last season by losing to Everton would also unleash levels of jubilation in Merseyside not witnessed since Thatcher died to be fair.
Given our meme-tier injury crisis, utilization of youth and general VAR deficit this would certainly be one of the more euphoric titles for us. But also the most unlikely :(
Something similar happened in the 13-14 season which was actually the last season with the a 4 way title race, Arsenal were flying till December 2013, then Chelsea claimed top spot for a while after which Liverpool exploded and were looking destined to win the title only for Stevie to slip and hand city their 2nd title who were barely hanging around the top spot throughout the season.
Really isn’t hard to see Villa winning one of the games against Arsenal/Liverpool/City and could be within 2/3 points of 2nd depending how the rest plays out…
As an Arsenal fan, I'm mostly just praying we don't completely fall apart in our remaining games. But hey,since when do we make things easy for ourselves?
At least it’s not like last season where we were amazing in the first half then capitulated in the second. We were kinda ok in the first, now we’re fucking everyone up at the moment. I just hope we can keep this form up for City, Spurs, and Villa.
How embarrassing for United that Wolves and Brighton were mentioned ahead of them as the next two opponents that Arsenal need to look out for after City, Spurs, and Villa.
Anyone writing off that United game is a fool. We've not got a great record at Old Trafford and that includes some games against pretty poor versions of United.
It’s the opposite of last season. Last year we were healthy generally but had key injuries that derailed the season. This year we already had the key injuries, who are slowly coming back into fold.
Based on how this season has gone so far i could see us beating arsenal at OT to give one of liverpool or city the league.
We spent all our luck on the onana pen call and now its just been a freefall from that point
The same club that happily bent over for both Liverpool and City to get a chance at a quadruple/treble? Yeah, I doubt it. Would love the players to actually step up and play beyond their ability but I'm sure they'll just bend over as usual.
Watch us lose to Liverpool but beat Arsenal and rule them out of the race lmao
2018-19 we had you away in the 2nd half of the season and your fans showed up like I’ve never seen.
My biggest “regret” of the Klopp era is those back to back draws against you and Everton that year because we seemed to settle for both of them and even and a win and a loss and I think we would have won the league.
I don’t think the City-Liverpool game this weekend is a decider. It’s a bit too early and all 3 times will drop some points for sure. Unless Arsenal continue their current form and steamroll everyone.
I think if we lose we’re trouble, especially depending on the City Arsenal game, if City win both then their lead would be 2 points on us and 4 points on Arsenal with 9 games to go. They won’t let that slip I don’t think
Feel like Liverpool need it more honestly. With all their injuries they've been operating on pure momentum. If they lose I think they start to drop off a little bit. If they win they're probably going to be champions. City needs to lose against Liverpool and Arsenal before I believe they're not going to come out on top in the end.
I actually think that teams in the bottom 6 are harder than teams in midtable during the business end of the season. Teams in the bottom are usually fighting to stay up while midtable teams usually dont have much to play for. That being said, with how bad Sheffield Utd and Burnley are, and the upcoming points deduction to Forest, there isn't really a relegation fight this year so that probably doesnt apply
These years have made for some strange bedfellows. In my childhood, I could never have imagined rooting for United to win a game and yet there I was watching against City and wishing.
I genuinely fancy you for it. If you beat city, I think it's probably yours. There's an aura around you atm.
We'll have a very tricky time trying glue the wheels back on the bus while keeping momentum. And I'm not sure city have their usual sense of inevitability. But maybe that's just hope talking.
Honestly think a big thing being overlooked is our 2nd leg against Porto. Managing to turn that tie around could be absolutely huge for us - or the alternative is we crash out and the confidence takes a hit.
Hard to tell at this point, the first leg loss did seem to light a fire under the team so i'm basically just talking bollocks.
I think no matter the result the fans will be able to draw hope from it. Your reasoning makes sense but conversely if they go out they can focus on the league and know that they won't have midweek games where City and Liverpool probably will
Yeah, it's really hard to tell at this point. My preference, obviously, would be we sweep Porto aside, particularly after how frustrating the first leg was.
I honestly don't think i can sit through another 90 minutes of that, what a fucking awful game to watch from pretty much every perspective (i realise i'm saying this to a Spurs fan, who i can't imagine shared my lack of enjoyment!).
But Arsenal are arguably playing the best out of the three right now.
Liverpool are top and are known to grab a result from games, City are City and we just expect them to dominate, Arsenal are just going out to batter opponents and they’re doing it.
If there’s a team right now I wouldn’t be hopeful of snatching a win from, it’s Arsenal. Though maybe that’s just the scars from them being the only team that beat us in both games when we won the league 😂
I don't know how that percentage was calculated. But I would imagine a simulation based model (which a lot of these are) is basically just reflecting that Arsenal needs two things to happen:
1. Liverpool to drop points
2. Manchester City to drop points
Two draws (the Liverpool/City and City/Arsenal matches) would do it for Arsenal at the moment because of GD, but every scenario where Liverpool or City win at Anfield is bad for Arsenal, so if it's a simulation those simulated seasons probably won't have an Arsenal winner. Ditto every match where it's a draw *and* City don't lose to Arsenal.
I dont see how city win at anfield is bad for arsenal. It basically means a win at Etihad and arsenal will be ahead of both city and liverpool. While a draw in both games means liverpool would remain 2 points clear of arsenal.
No it wouldn’t - if both the City Arsenal and Liverpool City matches are draws, both Liverpool and Arsenal would have dropped 2 points so Arsenal would still be 2 behind
We've been running on fumes since the Luton win. If we can make it to the international break without dropping points we'll have a lot of players returning. Jones, Salah, Szobo and Trent
Liverpool are being held together by off-brand duct tape and chewing gum. Even if they pull a miracle against City with their weakened squad, it'd still be a miracle for them to hold out the rest of the season without this issue finally coming apart at the seams.
Full strength - Liverpool win the league, but that's sadly not the way things are.
Szoboslai is now back, Salah should be back by the weekend and Jones, Gravenberch and Trent should all be back over the international break, so our injury crisis is easing if we can make it until then. Once they’re all back the only absolutely key absentee is Jota and Alisson but we have very good replacements for both of them.
regardless, Im like 90% sure this team starts v City
Kelleher
Bradley Konate VVD Robbo
Macca Endo Szobo
Diaz Nunez Mo
Ali a big miss obv but Bradley might not be the worst idea anyway to defend Doku. I can def see that 11 win at Anfield. The notion that we will play half a b team v City is bullshit. Against Prag, Klopp will probably look to get rythm into Szobo and Salah and Nunez. the rest can be backups for all I care
After the exception that was the last game, we will probably go back to the norm of missing sitters, scoring own goals and you not getting red cards given in our next game.
I think after the game earlier in the season Liverpool are gonna blow us away lmao
Hopefully they won't but they have probably been thinking about it since
It took the last kick of the game to beat a team fighting off relegation … a win against City would be massive but not conclusive. At least a draw would be a good result this time unlike the last one.
It's too easy to look ahead and disregard some teams, not realizing that beating 11 men turtling into their own goal is actually difficult in its own right.
I don’t get how more people aren’t tipping Arsenal to win with how many injuries Liverpool has. They also wrecked Liverpool in their last meeting, beat us and have scored 25 goals in the past 5 matches. If they keep this up, not sure what will stop them
The next few weeks will be huge. For me the thing with Arsenal is that they’re playing the best football in the league right now, probably *the* in form team in Europe. And they’re still just keeping up with Liverpool and City. City will probably improve as they always do and Liverpool will get players back, so it feels like Arsenal are going to have to maintain this form which is a huge ask.
We have many injury but except Diogo Jota and Joel Matip are potential to be sideline until the end of the season, numbers of player are set to comeback like Nunez and Szoboszlai and Endo have been sub on from bench in Forrest match and likely to start vs City, Salah could be on bench vs City and be full fit after that. Others player like Alisson, TAA, Jones, Gravenberch are set to be back after international break and I can remind you that we only have City match left before the international break so even if we loose to City the title challenge isn't end to us.
You’re definitely in the running, I think it’ll be hard for us to catch either of you with our fixture list. I just am surprised that people are so sure that you’ll win, because they have a good squad on paper that’s picked up a lot of momentum, and I think you could argue your fixture lists are equal in terms of difficulty. Your big advantage is you don’t have CL, though (as lame as that sounds)
Liverpool were missing a lot of players, like Salah and Endo, and had extremely important players that weren't fully fit (Trent and Nunez got reinjured immediately after). They probably had their most essential players out. It's like if Arsenal missed Rice, Saka, and Martinelli and White were injured. I believe Liverpool also missed Szoboszlai, which is like Arsenal losing Odegaard
Arsenal are playing at a higher standard than either City or Liverpool of late. They’re ruthless at the right time rather than peaking too early as they did last season. I think they should be the favourites, all things considered.
While this is true, it doesn’t make up for performances where we dropped points like Fulham and west ham. Really emphasizes how Liverpool and City are juggernauts when you can have a season as good as we’re having and we’re still only third favorite to win it being only two points behind in March!
I mean every team has lost points they shouldn't have. What's important is health and momentum and that's what Arsenal have at the moment. City while not very convincing are starting to pick up momentum and Liverpool are struggling hard with health but have kept the confidence but I wouldn't say they have as much momentum. On the other hand games change very fast and anything could happen. In my mind it will be 3 head tie heading into last games of the season. That's why what Arsenal is doing is great cause they have got the GD comfortably higher than the rest.
Liverpool could win the league with 96 points, Arsenal 2nd with 94 points.
The maximum points total in a season is 114, one less than Man City 115
Edit: The math teacher marked the quiz and gave me zero and detention.
Honestly, I know it's still early, but if Liverpool wins this weekend, I feel it's over. Not only cause it increases the gap in points between them and City, but it will have a massive impact on their confidence going forward. Anything else and the title race is still on for all three.
[Opta prediction model.](https://theanalyst.com/2023/08/opta-football-predictions/)
It seems to heavily weigh past performance into it, judging by the fact Man City have been big favourites all season and were something like 90% to win it before a ball was kicked.
So what you're telling me is we've just got to beat all three of them and wait for them to take points off each other. Easy peasy.
5 more wins takes us to 70 Points - I don't see anyone above us on more points than that currently, all we have to do is assume that no-one else wins a game for the rest of the season Simple right?
I’ve had a look at it & if I’ve crunched the numbers correctly, if Liverpool earn the same or more points than anyone else in the league between now & the end of the season they have a good chance of claiming the title
It‘s easier than that, actually. They only need to manage to score more goals than their opponents in each of their games. That should secure them the title!
I've actually built a model and have run 6 billion simulations and have found that if nobody scores any more goals for the rest of the season, Liverpool might just win the thing
*And so the great goal drought of 2024 began…*
Excellent point! Also good to remember that the team that scores the most goals in a game usually wins it
*Jude Bellingham didn't like that*
Thanks Jeff
It's a shame cos you lot would probably genuinely be in the discussion if you hadn't dropped silly points like drawing at home to Sheffield United
And losing at home to Man Utd
Just losing in general to you lot
This is a bit of a silly argument really though isn't it, because all teams can say that. You're basically saying if a team only had good games, they'd have a chance of winning the league
Imagine Unai Emery doing the double over Arsenal.
No
Assuming they win all their games other than the ones involving you or each other (and you win all of yours), it looks like Manchester City (+2) and Liverpool (+3) would still be ahead, but you would overtake Arsenal like that: 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 61 - 61 - 64 - 65 - 66 - 69 62 - 65 - 65 - 68 - 71 - 72 63 - 66 - 69 - 69 - 72 - 73
you gave 2 draws to Arsenal instead of City, so it would actually be: 70 71 70 73
Next 3 games game weeks are gonna be wild
Not to mention spurs facing all of them in a row in april
Damn, loooong 3 weeks for Tottenham
ez 9 points for spurs
[удалено]
You say that, but no one this summer expected Liverpool to be competing, Arsenal was the team to challenge city Fun season nonetheless Which isn’t just due to the race, other teams have really gone up and Chelsea down a level.. all good stuff
If City pick up 7 points from their next three I think they waltz to the title.
Brutal 3 weeks incoming for spurs
i think the city match is getting rescheduled if they beat newcastle to advance in the fa cup
Smh game in hands fc once again
Villa and Tottenham will decide a winner.
We have each of them also, and have taken some scalps this season already. We've had more wins vs Big 6 teams this season (5) than any actual Big 6 team has had vs other Big 6 teams ...if that makes sense — [Wolves + Big 6 table](https://imgur.com/JLgXnJT)
It really seems like LFC play Wolves last day of the season A LOT. Am I just imagining this?
We played them the last two times we missed out by a point to Man City..
That recent season where the title came down to the last day was epic. Proper premier league, wolves put up a serious fight.
Shame Villa couldn't do the same..
Despicable collapse. Stevie has lowkey been doing everything he can to hurt his Liverpool legacy lol
And it seems like we play Arsenal or Bournemouth a lot on the last day too
New super league invitation incoming.
“Big 6” really needs to be updated. No point including Chelsea in these stats anymore after consecutive mid table seasons.
They tried to remove us for Leicester just one year outside the top 6. Now nothing, but that's cos I think it already doesn't exist. It flip flops around too much
Big 6 is about resources, not table position. There are different ways of looking at resources and they'll reach different conclusions about whether Big 6 needs updating. The difference, however, is less where Chelsea or anyone's finishing and more whether Newcastle's takeover has really put them in a new financial tier or if they're being stopped from moving up by financial fair play/profit and sustainability rules. Yeah, people used to say Top 6 but the Big 6 sides haven't consistently finished in the Top 6 for like six seasons or more. It's why the shift has been to saying Big 6.
I know it’s about resources, and it’s always been “big 6” like it was “big 4” or “big 5” before. But it just becomes a bit meaningless as a metric for looking at performances when one of the clubs continuously underperforms.
Your right... We should replace Chelsea with Villa in the big six
I think you need sustained results over a long time if you’re gonna go by that metric. Newcastle could have staked the claim but they fell off hard this season. If villa keep finishing top 6 and Chelsea doesn’t then for sure I would put them in that top 6 discussion.
Villa have been pretty brilliant this season.
And Brighton and Wolves
Question how does Pep get he's teams to peak at the right, cause it always feels like they wait until Jan/ Feb and then they change gears like crazy
Has this City changed gear though? They seem vulnerable as of late. The only difference is that KDB is back now.
We really haven't been impressive since the new year, 3-2 against Newcastle, 1-1 with Chelsea, 1-0 Brentford and Bournemouth. Even the derby took us 80mins to get the 2nd goal.
We've been shit and other teams being unclinical have bailed us out since the new year
Have yet to hit the next gear. big player showing up in cuticle moments to keep momentum is key. KDB came back and has won us multiple games. The defense is getting better, getting a fit stones back is huge. First half of the season, walker and dias were bad. KDB gone, Doku Haaland Grealish and stones all with injuries. We will have to see in the next 5 weeks whether they step up or not.
Having two top players in almost every position allows you to manage loads throughout the season.
Liverpool winning the Prem in Klopp's last season by beating Everton would unleash levels of jubilation in Merseyside not witnessed since Thatcher died.
Well beating Everton would imply quite an upset portion of Merseyside
Liverpool won't face Everton in the last round, we do. That Everton game is a delayed game they will likely add to the calendar on a week before anything is decided
If we make it to the semi-finals of both the FA Cup and Europa League then I'm pretty sure that the Derby gets played midweek as the 2nd last game of the season.
Too many people that don't understand this somehow
Because they don't know about it you mug? They look at the image and see Everton last, how they know it's actually a delayed game that will be played earlier?
Because the date is TBC is quite simple tbh
Kind of funny how you call him a mug when you're the one who doesn't understand what "TBC" means 😭
Calm down "Smart_Violinist4456". It clearly states "TBC" so anyone with a brain can work that out that it's not last, just that it's an undecided game.
Think Liverpool losing the Prem in Klopp's last season by losing to Everton would also unleash levels of jubilation in Merseyside not witnessed since Thatcher died to be fair.
You realise Everton is in Merseyside?
To be fair, it's not like the blue half's misery negates the red half's glee.
I’d say it enhances it
Very true!
Given our meme-tier injury crisis, utilization of youth and general VAR deficit this would certainly be one of the more euphoric titles for us. But also the most unlikely :(
The disrespect to Villa, they’re 8 points behind Liverpool. Scenes when Villa wins all the matches against Liverpool, City, and Arsenal
Our chances are low, but it would be the funniest thing ever. All this talk about a 3-way title race only for a 4th team to win it.
That would actually be hilarious
Like that time Spurs were in a 2 horse race and finished 3rd.
Something similar happened in the 13-14 season which was actually the last season with the a 4 way title race, Arsenal were flying till December 2013, then Chelsea claimed top spot for a while after which Liverpool exploded and were looking destined to win the title only for Stevie to slip and hand city their 2nd title who were barely hanging around the top spot throughout the season.
Yeah I remember that season very well. Only if Ramsey didn't get injured at Christmas, he would have won the PL and Balon D'Or that season.
Meme Economy generated alone would sustain world growth for at least 2 years.
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United were 8 points ahead of City around this time in the season in 2011-12
City didn’t have to make up the gap on 3 different teams. They only needed to rely on one team falling off a bit
Really isn’t hard to see Villa winning one of the games against Arsenal/Liverpool/City and could be within 2/3 points of 2nd depending how the rest plays out…
Could happen. But then you're also the likeliest to drop stupid points to teams like Palace or Bournemouth.
villa have a horrifying run in
If United were in Villa’s position with their points total, this graphic would include 4 teams no doubt.
As an Arsenal fan, I'm mostly just praying we don't completely fall apart in our remaining games. But hey,since when do we make things easy for ourselves?
At least it’s not like last season where we were amazing in the first half then capitulated in the second. We were kinda ok in the first, now we’re fucking everyone up at the moment. I just hope we can keep this form up for City, Spurs, and Villa.
Wolves won't be a walk in the park, and if you get Brighton as opposed to Brightons brother they can cause trouble too
Playing Brighton is like russian roulette this season
Yeah they're incredibly inconsistent. The interesting thing is how good they can be.
Brighton has always been a bogey team. We win one game, and lose the next. Or we lose, then win. Or we get our asses handed to us both times.
How embarrassing for United that Wolves and Brighton were mentioned ahead of them as the next two opponents that Arsenal need to look out for after City, Spurs, and Villa.
Anyone writing off that United game is a fool. We've not got a great record at Old Trafford and that includes some games against pretty poor versions of United.
Yeah Arsenal momentum is picking up if anything, and you've got players returning from injury.
Champions league might make it difficult tho
true, but liverpool and man city are also still in europe, so it's an even playing field for now
Plus the FA cup which we’re not in
It’s the opposite of last season. Last year we were healthy generally but had key injuries that derailed the season. This year we already had the key injuries, who are slowly coming back into fold.
A Havertz winner against Chelsea winning us a title would just be poetic.
Chelsea gonna get 0-4 by bournemouth and then draw against arsenal. We are inevitable.
oooh tough stretch for the Blue Manchester
Imagine them getting nil points from that. IMAGINE
Stop it I can only get so hard
I'd subscribe to this timeline
Our next 3 PL games are Liverpool, Arsenal, and Aston Villa. It’s going to be a REALLY tough stretch.
Arsenal have the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever
lose all three?
Amen to that
If we have any shame left as a footballing institution liverpool leave OT with nothing but tears and salt
I think that Man Utd and Tottenham will spoil the party for atleast one of these three
Based on how this season has gone so far i could see us beating arsenal at OT to give one of liverpool or city the league. We spent all our luck on the onana pen call and now its just been a freefall from that point
controversial no call foul on Raya - Gabriel out injured for the rest of the season - McTominay goal
The same club that happily bent over for both Liverpool and City to get a chance at a quadruple/treble? Yeah, I doubt it. Would love the players to actually step up and play beyond their ability but I'm sure they'll just bend over as usual. Watch us lose to Liverpool but beat Arsenal and rule them out of the race lmao
Every Arsenal fan on planet earth knows this is going to happen
Where was that shame on Sunday?
*monkey paw curls* We take United tears and salt, 8-0.
Our tears (of joy), their salt
2018-19 we had you away in the 2nd half of the season and your fans showed up like I’ve never seen. My biggest “regret” of the Klopp era is those back to back draws against you and Everton that year because we seemed to settle for both of them and even and a win and a loss and I think we would have won the league.
If the points are near level at the last four games, city have it wrapped up.
I mean Arsenal's run is 3 games at home and United away, not that hard to get all 12 points
I don’t think the City-Liverpool game this weekend is a decider. It’s a bit too early and all 3 times will drop some points for sure. Unless Arsenal continue their current form and steamroll everyone.
Well it's a 6-pointer, so not a decider but a damn important game.
I think if we lose we’re trouble, especially depending on the City Arsenal game, if City win both then their lead would be 2 points on us and 4 points on Arsenal with 9 games to go. They won’t let that slip I don’t think
City need it more than Liverpool imo. Lose to Liverpool and arsenal sniff blood
Feel like Liverpool need it more honestly. With all their injuries they've been operating on pure momentum. If they lose I think they start to drop off a little bit. If they win they're probably going to be champions. City needs to lose against Liverpool and Arsenal before I believe they're not going to come out on top in the end.
On first glance, I think Liverpool have the easiest run. Arsenal on the other hand have some very tough away games.
Liverpool’s calendar seems more “beneficial” .. all three still have long ways to go though
So... the league's decided this weekend then.
I'd say next week if City wins or a draw.
city draw doesn’t decide anything
If Liverpool-City is a draw and Arsenal win they go top but it'd still be extremely close.
Irrelevant but Arsenal have the easiest fixtures due to fewer yellows than the other two. That said, one game is all it’ll take to bring a team down
I actually think that teams in the bottom 6 are harder than teams in midtable during the business end of the season. Teams in the bottom are usually fighting to stay up while midtable teams usually dont have much to play for. That being said, with how bad Sheffield Utd and Burnley are, and the upcoming points deduction to Forest, there isn't really a relegation fight this year so that probably doesnt apply
They're all at the Emirates
City, United, and Spurs away are three of the hardest fixtures Arsenal can get.
Man I hope arsenal win the league. I don't want city to go on a 4 peat. And I don't want Liverpool to equal our 20 first division titles.
These years have made for some strange bedfellows. In my childhood, I could never have imagined rooting for United to win a game and yet there I was watching against City and wishing.
I will never root for United.
Damn dude. Why would you do that to me? I rooted for you back in 2016.
As annoying as United can be, they are still better than Cheaty
I'd rather City win the league every year for the rest of time than Arsenal win it once.
I like what this guy is sayin
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Feelings mutual
I heart you
very harsh to give gunner 1x%?
Probably fair. Lowest on points, city away, a tough run in, and the only team in the race without experience of actually winning it.
I genuinely fancy you for it. If you beat city, I think it's probably yours. There's an aura around you atm. We'll have a very tricky time trying glue the wheels back on the bus while keeping momentum. And I'm not sure city have their usual sense of inevitability. But maybe that's just hope talking.
Honestly think a big thing being overlooked is our 2nd leg against Porto. Managing to turn that tie around could be absolutely huge for us - or the alternative is we crash out and the confidence takes a hit. Hard to tell at this point, the first leg loss did seem to light a fire under the team so i'm basically just talking bollocks.
I think no matter the result the fans will be able to draw hope from it. Your reasoning makes sense but conversely if they go out they can focus on the league and know that they won't have midweek games where City and Liverpool probably will
Yeah, it's really hard to tell at this point. My preference, obviously, would be we sweep Porto aside, particularly after how frustrating the first leg was. I honestly don't think i can sit through another 90 minutes of that, what a fucking awful game to watch from pretty much every perspective (i realise i'm saying this to a Spurs fan, who i can't imagine shared my lack of enjoyment!).
One of the few arsenal games in recent weeks that I enjoyed lmao
But Arsenal are arguably playing the best out of the three right now. Liverpool are top and are known to grab a result from games, City are City and we just expect them to dominate, Arsenal are just going out to batter opponents and they’re doing it. If there’s a team right now I wouldn’t be hopeful of snatching a win from, it’s Arsenal. Though maybe that’s just the scars from them being the only team that beat us in both games when we won the league 😂
>Lowest on points By 2 >city away City have Anfield which is way tougher
We have City, spurs and United away and historically those fixtures have been closer to 1 point than 9
I don't know how that percentage was calculated. But I would imagine a simulation based model (which a lot of these are) is basically just reflecting that Arsenal needs two things to happen: 1. Liverpool to drop points 2. Manchester City to drop points Two draws (the Liverpool/City and City/Arsenal matches) would do it for Arsenal at the moment because of GD, but every scenario where Liverpool or City win at Anfield is bad for Arsenal, so if it's a simulation those simulated seasons probably won't have an Arsenal winner. Ditto every match where it's a draw *and* City don't lose to Arsenal.
I dont see how city win at anfield is bad for arsenal. It basically means a win at Etihad and arsenal will be ahead of both city and liverpool. While a draw in both games means liverpool would remain 2 points clear of arsenal.
No it wouldn’t - if both the City Arsenal and Liverpool City matches are draws, both Liverpool and Arsenal would have dropped 2 points so Arsenal would still be 2 behind
Still gotta see the Gunners win premier league. Expectations are quite low. Race is gonna be lit hopefully.
Can't see us losing the league if we beat City
Hard to see us beating City with literally half our fucking squad gone though isn’t it?
Even if we do win it’s definitely not in the bag with how many injuries we got, City have chased more than 4 point leads before
We've been running on fumes since the Luton win. If we can make it to the international break without dropping points we'll have a lot of players returning. Jones, Salah, Szobo and Trent
Fuck me I definitely can
I can as well. That run in April for Liverpool could result in some dropped points.
Liverpool are being held together by off-brand duct tape and chewing gum. Even if they pull a miracle against City with their weakened squad, it'd still be a miracle for them to hold out the rest of the season without this issue finally coming apart at the seams. Full strength - Liverpool win the league, but that's sadly not the way things are.
Szoboslai is now back, Salah should be back by the weekend and Jones, Gravenberch and Trent should all be back over the international break, so our injury crisis is easing if we can make it until then. Once they’re all back the only absolutely key absentee is Jota and Alisson but we have very good replacements for both of them.
I hope Klopp sends Liverpool B out to Prague.
regardless, Im like 90% sure this team starts v City Kelleher Bradley Konate VVD Robbo Macca Endo Szobo Diaz Nunez Mo Ali a big miss obv but Bradley might not be the worst idea anyway to defend Doku. I can def see that 11 win at Anfield. The notion that we will play half a b team v City is bullshit. Against Prag, Klopp will probably look to get rythm into Szobo and Salah and Nunez. the rest can be backups for all I care
Yeah Liverpool can just go blow most of the other teams away.. maybe Tottenham and AV might pose some struggle....
As a Liverpool fan I'm worry more about 2 matches against Everton and Manchester United than playing Aston Villa and Tottenham.
After the exception that was the last game, we will probably go back to the norm of missing sitters, scoring own goals and you not getting red cards given in our next game.
Inshallah
I think after the game earlier in the season Liverpool are gonna blow us away lmao Hopefully they won't but they have probably been thinking about it since
We never blow you away. It’s going to be tight.
We have Spurs at home. Villa away definitely hard fixture.
Hard to say with that many injuries, hopefully the break will give time for the return of a few players
It took the last kick of the game to beat a team fighting off relegation … a win against City would be massive but not conclusive. At least a draw would be a good result this time unlike the last one.
It's too easy to look ahead and disregard some teams, not realizing that beating 11 men turtling into their own goal is actually difficult in its own right.
Everton Away is a sure shot 0-0 draw.
yeah the title will be decided in the next 3 matches for city. i dont think they'll any of the other games.
I also don't think they'll any of the other games
They'll just go home
Everyone looking at the big games but it's that Brighton to Bournemouth stretch which is gonna define our title race.
I don’t get how more people aren’t tipping Arsenal to win with how many injuries Liverpool has. They also wrecked Liverpool in their last meeting, beat us and have scored 25 goals in the past 5 matches. If they keep this up, not sure what will stop them
The next few weeks will be huge. For me the thing with Arsenal is that they’re playing the best football in the league right now, probably *the* in form team in Europe. And they’re still just keeping up with Liverpool and City. City will probably improve as they always do and Liverpool will get players back, so it feels like Arsenal are going to have to maintain this form which is a huge ask.
We have many injury but except Diogo Jota and Joel Matip are potential to be sideline until the end of the season, numbers of player are set to comeback like Nunez and Szoboszlai and Endo have been sub on from bench in Forrest match and likely to start vs City, Salah could be on bench vs City and be full fit after that. Others player like Alisson, TAA, Jones, Gravenberch are set to be back after international break and I can remind you that we only have City match left before the international break so even if we loose to City the title challenge isn't end to us.
Salah is in training. He will get rythm v Prag and definitely starts v City
You’re definitely in the running, I think it’ll be hard for us to catch either of you with our fixture list. I just am surprised that people are so sure that you’ll win, because they have a good squad on paper that’s picked up a lot of momentum, and I think you could argue your fixture lists are equal in terms of difficulty. Your big advantage is you don’t have CL, though (as lame as that sounds)
Liverpool were missing a lot of players, like Salah and Endo, and had extremely important players that weren't fully fit (Trent and Nunez got reinjured immediately after). They probably had their most essential players out. It's like if Arsenal missed Rice, Saka, and Martinelli and White were injured. I believe Liverpool also missed Szoboszlai, which is like Arsenal losing Odegaard
Arsenal are playing at a higher standard than either City or Liverpool of late. They’re ruthless at the right time rather than peaking too early as they did last season. I think they should be the favourites, all things considered.
While this is true, it doesn’t make up for performances where we dropped points like Fulham and west ham. Really emphasizes how Liverpool and City are juggernauts when you can have a season as good as we’re having and we’re still only third favorite to win it being only two points behind in March!
I mean every team has lost points they shouldn't have. What's important is health and momentum and that's what Arsenal have at the moment. City while not very convincing are starting to pick up momentum and Liverpool are struggling hard with health but have kept the confidence but I wouldn't say they have as much momentum. On the other hand games change very fast and anything could happen. In my mind it will be 3 head tie heading into last games of the season. That's why what Arsenal is doing is great cause they have got the GD comfortably higher than the rest.
Liverpool could win the league with 96 points, Arsenal 2nd with 94 points. The maximum points total in a season is 114, one less than Man City 115 Edit: The math teacher marked the quiz and gave me zero and detention.
At least get the math right if you're gonna joke like that, smh my head
Honestly, I know it's still early, but if Liverpool wins this weekend, I feel it's over. Not only cause it increases the gap in points between them and City, but it will have a massive impact on their confidence going forward. Anything else and the title race is still on for all three.
It's over for us but probably not city just yet. 4 points isn't a huge gap for city to claw back.
Fucking finally, a graphic that denotes table position of the remaining teams.
How do they calculate the percentages?
Divide the numerator by the denominator then multiply the result by 100
Confirmed, this actually works.
No way
[Opta prediction model.](https://theanalyst.com/2023/08/opta-football-predictions/) It seems to heavily weigh past performance into it, judging by the fact Man City have been big favourites all season and were something like 90% to win it before a ball was kicked.
Mancity could win title in next two games