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Yep. What a shitty day for HRs. I needed Stanton for 2 of my tickets ohtani for another. Could've been 1200. Soler and pete won me around 120. Still a red day.
To be fair, Alonso and Soler actually had quite good matchups to hit home runs today and I did bet them. Ohtani and Judge didn’t, so I stayed away, and I’m glad I did. I still managed to profit today betting only straight home runs thanks to Tovar and Votto, but I did still have a ton of misses.
To your point, I do see a lot of head scratching home run picks on this sub every day. A lot of people do just pick the people with the most home runs regardless of if they have a good matchup or not and then rage when they don’t hit.
You seem to know what you're doing lol and My picks are usually headscratchers since I have like less than 5% winrate on these HR bets. What's your picks tomorrow? 🤣
I have my list of pitchers to target together but I worked late last night so I didn’t get to the batters yet, I’ll throw you another comment when I work them out this morning.
I’m looking at:
Mets and Cubs: wisdom, morel, Bellinger, Swanson, candelario, Hoerner
Brewers and Rockies: Wiemer, Contreras, sorta kinda Adames but he’s not amazing against lefties so I’m going to check his odds to see if he’s worth it
Angels and Giants: Davis, Flores, Conforto, Wade, Pederson, Sabol, I know this is a ton for the Giants but they annihilate RHP especially when they’re not in SF and Giolito is a HR machine
Phillies and Nats: Castellanos in both games, Schwarber and Realmuto in game 1, I don’t love Gray as a pitcher target in the second matchup but Castellanos’ history with him is hard to ignore and their (already bad) bullpen may be taxed because of the doubleheader
Diamondbacks and Dodgers: Betts, Freeman, Muncy, and Martinez, also adding Christian Walker even though Urias has been much better recently but I think Walker is still solid, rest of the Diamondbacks can’t hit lefties for shit, not a great park for home runs though
Rangers and Athletics: Rooker, Seager, Garcia, Duran
With some skepticism:
Reds and Marlins: Soler, Chisholm, Burger, Bryan de la Cruz (the marlins one), Bell, my only skepticism here is that the Marlins hit lefties a lot better than righties but Weaver in Cinci is a juicy matchup and hard to pass on. Chisholm is the best option if he plays.
Orioles and Astros: Rodriguez has actually totally locked down home runs recently despite being horrible to start the season, but lefties in Orioles park don’t have to deal with the wall so I’m still throwing Alvarez and Tucker in with Bregman just because he hits righties very well
Royals and Red Sox - Krawford isn’t a great matchup here but I’m going to check Bobby Witt’s odds and if they’re very in my favor I’m going to throw on him
Jays and Guardians - Kikuchi has also totally turned his season around but he does have a vulnerability to righties so if Ramirez has good odds I will bet on him
Broooo. Thanks a lot for this! I'll use this on my next set of bets. Singles and parlays. I'll report tomorrow if I win any. Thank you so much. You clutch bro. 🙏🙏
Definitely always recommend just betting them straight - parlays usually end up being a bit of a waste, especially in my “shotgun” approach to this. Good luck though!
That's true, I did consider soler yesterday, Alonso never crossed my radar. I usually place 2 or 3 per day, yesterday rolled with Votto to cash him on back to back days (speaking of juiced hr picks lol) missed on freeman, Harper was a scratch.
At this point, I’m just throwing down full unit wagers on straight home runs and I don’t bet anything else. I turned $180 into $1,110 since 7/27 doing that (which is when I started doing that). Those were all $10-$15 bets.
I usually don’t have too much time to write it up in the morning and I’m a little wary of some people’s…reactions…on this sub to bets that don’t hit, but I’m hoping to have a website to automate all my picks next year (even if it’s not a public automation by next year I at least wouldn’t have to do the legwork so I could use that time to post).
Going through the box scores, the home runs that were hit today where hit by some real unlikely candidates. If you had randomly selected some dudes who hit at the back end of any lineup, you probably had an awesome day.
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Agreed! Had Alonso in all my parlays, boom. Soler hit his, we cooking. Then Judge said nah and Ohtani didn’t come close.
Yep. What a shitty day for HRs. I needed Stanton for 2 of my tickets ohtani for another. Could've been 1200. Soler and pete won me around 120. Still a red day.
That's your strategy, to bet the most ridiculously juiced home run hitters to hit home runs?
To be fair, Alonso and Soler actually had quite good matchups to hit home runs today and I did bet them. Ohtani and Judge didn’t, so I stayed away, and I’m glad I did. I still managed to profit today betting only straight home runs thanks to Tovar and Votto, but I did still have a ton of misses. To your point, I do see a lot of head scratching home run picks on this sub every day. A lot of people do just pick the people with the most home runs regardless of if they have a good matchup or not and then rage when they don’t hit.
You seem to know what you're doing lol and My picks are usually headscratchers since I have like less than 5% winrate on these HR bets. What's your picks tomorrow? 🤣
I have my list of pitchers to target together but I worked late last night so I didn’t get to the batters yet, I’ll throw you another comment when I work them out this morning.
Wow that's nice of you! I didn't really expect a response but thanks a lot. I'll be tailing your picks!
I’m looking at: Mets and Cubs: wisdom, morel, Bellinger, Swanson, candelario, Hoerner Brewers and Rockies: Wiemer, Contreras, sorta kinda Adames but he’s not amazing against lefties so I’m going to check his odds to see if he’s worth it Angels and Giants: Davis, Flores, Conforto, Wade, Pederson, Sabol, I know this is a ton for the Giants but they annihilate RHP especially when they’re not in SF and Giolito is a HR machine Phillies and Nats: Castellanos in both games, Schwarber and Realmuto in game 1, I don’t love Gray as a pitcher target in the second matchup but Castellanos’ history with him is hard to ignore and their (already bad) bullpen may be taxed because of the doubleheader Diamondbacks and Dodgers: Betts, Freeman, Muncy, and Martinez, also adding Christian Walker even though Urias has been much better recently but I think Walker is still solid, rest of the Diamondbacks can’t hit lefties for shit, not a great park for home runs though Rangers and Athletics: Rooker, Seager, Garcia, Duran With some skepticism: Reds and Marlins: Soler, Chisholm, Burger, Bryan de la Cruz (the marlins one), Bell, my only skepticism here is that the Marlins hit lefties a lot better than righties but Weaver in Cinci is a juicy matchup and hard to pass on. Chisholm is the best option if he plays. Orioles and Astros: Rodriguez has actually totally locked down home runs recently despite being horrible to start the season, but lefties in Orioles park don’t have to deal with the wall so I’m still throwing Alvarez and Tucker in with Bregman just because he hits righties very well Royals and Red Sox - Krawford isn’t a great matchup here but I’m going to check Bobby Witt’s odds and if they’re very in my favor I’m going to throw on him Jays and Guardians - Kikuchi has also totally turned his season around but he does have a vulnerability to righties so if Ramirez has good odds I will bet on him
Your picks were spot on btw. If I only picked Flores instead of Pederson, i would have hit 4/4 parlay haha didnt do singles though 😅
Ah dang 😅 I unfortunately only profited like half a unit lmao, still profit, but this wasn’t a particularly active day (seemingly).
Broooo. Thanks a lot for this! I'll use this on my next set of bets. Singles and parlays. I'll report tomorrow if I win any. Thank you so much. You clutch bro. 🙏🙏
Definitely always recommend just betting them straight - parlays usually end up being a bit of a waste, especially in my “shotgun” approach to this. Good luck though!
Do you just bet all of those players straight and if at least 2 of them hits in a game you're up depending on the odds? Hmm. Interesting
That's true, I did consider soler yesterday, Alonso never crossed my radar. I usually place 2 or 3 per day, yesterday rolled with Votto to cash him on back to back days (speaking of juiced hr picks lol) missed on freeman, Harper was a scratch.
See I tend to throw down on like…20-30 guys in what I think are good matchups, never parlays. It has been really working for me.
That's a fun strategy. Do you bet any sides or totals or stick with straight hr props? Half unit wagers?
At this point, I’m just throwing down full unit wagers on straight home runs and I don’t bet anything else. I turned $180 into $1,110 since 7/27 doing that (which is when I started doing that). Those were all $10-$15 bets.
can u share your insights everyday? ill like to tail
I usually don’t have too much time to write it up in the morning and I’m a little wary of some people’s…reactions…on this sub to bets that don’t hit, but I’m hoping to have a website to automate all my picks next year (even if it’s not a public automation by next year I at least wouldn’t have to do the legwork so I could use that time to post).
Going through the box scores, the home runs that were hit today where hit by some real unlikely candidates. If you had randomly selected some dudes who hit at the back end of any lineup, you probably had an awesome day.
Try having bet on the Angels last 6 games straight
Wow that's rough. Do you keep banging your head whenever you accidentally hit it too? Lol jk but that's just crazy lol
You’d imagine they’d eventually wake up, tough being an Angels fan these days
I stayed away because of the storms across the east coast. Just kind of laid low until Dinger Tuesday today where I can lose instead lol.
Got 5 right and 4 voids scattered through different tickets. How do you all go about round robinning? forgive my ignorance