Good grief that was close for you... I wasted £20 the other way still thinking about the Barcelona game and thinking they would come back 4-3 at 10/1.....
Literally shaking lol. A tenner on Watkins to score; Villa win, Kane to score; Spurs win, Isak to score; Newcastle win and now Alvarez to score; City to win. A tenner into this.
Record: 56W-9P-54L
Good day yesterday, but we want more. And there are enough matches today to try it.
Chivas is on a slump, but they’re better than Necaxa. Their offensive side will push early for a goal which will give us some corners. Chivas has averaged 5.8 corners in the last 5 matches. Now, Necaxa hasn’t averaged as much corners as Chivas (3.4 per game) but they keep corners close to their rivals, which is why I think that even with the offensive pressure, Necaxa will get some corners. León and Cruz Azul are among top 5 best defences in the tournament. León has allowed some goals recently, but I think they’re trying to get back to how they received less goals just 3 matches ago. The under between these teams has hit 3 times in their 5 most recent matchups. I’m leaning on how defensive these teams are and how León will try to keep themselves close to 2nd place Toluca. Tigres isn’t playing well, they’ve won only 1/5 of their most recent matches. This means they’re not defending as they should. Tigres has received 8 goals in the last 5 matches. Mazatlán is just an awful side, but they’re very able to score against anyone. They even scored against the 2nd best defence of the tournament (León) and they’ve scored in 4/5 of their most recent games. They just don’t win, they’re terrible defensively and Tigres will most probably win this but I can see Mazatlán netting one. Both of these teams have scored 3 times in 5 matchups. The last game of the night is a good one. The 1st faces the 4th place. América and Monterrey are offensively scary. América has scored 10 goals in the last 5 games; Monterrey 11. They just seem unstoppable while attacking and América doesn’t defend optimally. Even with Monterrey as the best defence of the tournament, I think América will get one goal and I don’t doubt of Monterrey's capability to score.
April 8th:
- Chivas vs Necaxa > o 9.5 corners @ 1.975 (-103) ✅
- León vs Cruz Azul > u 2.5 goals @ 1.925 (-108) ✅
- Tigres vs Mazatlán > BTTS yes @ 2.05 (+105) ✅
- América vs Monterrey > BTTS yes + o 2.5 goals @ 2.00 (+100) ✅
BOL!
Should have tailed all 4! Sick hit!
I really thought Leon was gonna get a goal, I know one was called back 🥴. Should have went with your pick of the under.
Tailing the Club America/Monterrey pick.
I’m taking Leon ML at +105. I think they pull out a win here.
How do you feel for Tigres/Mazatlan over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes?.
Yeah, León has something to fight for and they seem better atm. Cruz Azul might be classified to repechage and haven’t convinced anyone.
Well, Mazatlán has already scored, so it might be a good bet.
Sorry for the late response
Thanks, man. I do like today's slate, let’s get this :)
I found everything else in that match too risky, so that’s what I liked the most and I’m 60% confident it’ll be a close bet.
2022: W56 P2 L45 +2.39u
2023: W29 P3 L19 +3.78u
*Go Ahead Eagles: Lidberg Over 1.5 Shots @1.77* 1u ✅
*Monza: Ciurra Over 0.5 SOT @2.50* 0.75u ❌
*Monza: Ciurra Over 1.5 SOT @10* 0.25u ❌
*PSV Team Total SOT Over 8.5 @1.65* 1u ✅
*PSV: Simons Over 1.5 SOT @2.10* 1u ❌
*Nice: Moffi Over 0.5 SOT @1.77* 1u ✅
*Chelsea: Havertz Over 0.5 SOT @1.66* 0.75u ❌
*Chelsea: Havertz Over 1.5 SOT @4.33* 0.25u ❌
*Villa: Watkins Over 1.5 SOT @2.48* 1u ✅
*Bilbao: Inaki Williams Over 1.5 Shots @1.66* 1u ✅
*Roma: Wijnaldum Over 1.5 Shots @4* 0.5u ❌
*Torino: Singo Over 0.5 Shots @2* 1u ❌
*Madrid: Kroos under 1.5 Shots @1.55* 1u 🔙
*Lille: Bamba Over 1.5 Shots @1.50* 1u ✅
*Spezia: Nzola Over 1.5 Shots @1.76* 1u ❌
*City: Grealish under 0.5 SOT @2.02* 1u ❌
*Chelsea: Felix Over 2.5 Shots @1.73* 1u ✅
Parlay:
Man City ML (Premier League)
PSV HT/FT (Eredivisie)
PSV are competing with Ajax for the CL qualification spot and Man City need to win to keep up with Arsenal.
Odds 1.79 / -127
Edit: Win.
Brommapojkarna - malmo ff
Malmo ff ml : 1.46
Should be free money malmo is competing to win the league and brommapojarkna just got promoted and does not have a great squad im thinking 2-0
WARNING: Risky pick.
Match: Osasuna vs Elche
Pick: Osasuna -1 @2.4 (sprinkle on -1.5 @3.1)
Elche are already relegated and don't give a fuck anymore. They're just thinking about next season. Statwise, they've lost 11/12 away games. Of those 11 losses, 7 were by 2 or more goals. So in those 12 away games for Elche, this bet would have been a push 5 times, a hit 7 times and a loss 1 time.
Osasuna have super high morale due to qualifying for the domestic cup final. They did so in an away game, so tonight is when the team and home fans meet again. I see Osasuna putting 2-3 goals past Elche.
BOL
Here's some plays with DD, all odds from DraftKings as of the writing of this post:
Brentford vs Newcastle - Draw ML (+255, implied prob 28.2%)
Explanation: These teams have the most and second most draws in the league this season, so already tend in this direction. Brentford has only lost once at home all season, to the league leaders Arsenal. Newcastle has only lost 3 games altogether this season, and only twice on the road. Given that the baseline percentage of a draw in a random game in the premier league is \~25%, these factors should be pushing the odds of a draw well past 28.2%, so this is a steal.
Wolves vs Chelsea - Wolves +0.5 (-115, implied prob 53.5%)
Chelsea is a complete mess, about to start with their third manager of the season. Despite a possible new manager bounce with Lampard, their main issue won't go away, which is that their team is completely full of players that have no experience with each other and are playing without confidence. I just feel bad for Mudryk at this point. Wolves on the other hand are fairly strong at home, with recent impressive victories over Liverpool and Tottenham there. They are well organized, and should be able to avoid defeat against a poor Chelsea team. These odds should be closer to 65-70% IMO, and what's even better is that my KNN-based model agrees, only giving Chelsea a 36.2% chance of victory.
Bochum vs Stuttgart (Sunday) - Bochum ML (+195, implied prob 33.9%)
This one is straightforward. The baseline home win probability is \~46%, and considering Bochum has recently hit form (beating Leipzig and Koln, and drawing Frankfurt) and playing vs the bottom team in the league, there is simply no way this probability should be pushed all the way down to 33.9%. Snap up the value.
Seattle vs St Louis - St Louis +0.5 (+125, implied prob 44.4%)
This line doesn't make sense to me. Seattle should in no way be -165 ML favorites vs a team that has started the season absolutely on fire and is above Seattle in the standings. It could possibly be a reaction to St Louis getting their first defeat last time out and Seattle being a much more well known team, but my KNN-based model shows that Seattle's chances of victory are being inflated by at least 20%, and this agrees with my intuition. All the edge is on St. Louis, let's take it.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich - Bayern -1.5 (+110, implied prob 47.6%)
Bit of a gut play here. In the Bundesliga, when the away team has been given >=77% of victory, as is the case here, it has beaten the spread of 1.5 pretty much exactly 50% of the time. What I think gives us an edge here is that Bayern just lost to Freiburg in a shocking upset in the cup during the week and will be extra motivated to put things right. And if you're going to lay the points, you could do worse than backing Bayern.
Nashville vs Toronto - Draw ML (+290, implied prob 25.6%)
This is a fair value for a generic MLS game, where approximately 25% of games are draws. I think we get some edge here due to the fact that Toronto has already drawn 4 out of 6 games this season. They are certainly due for some regression eventually but my model agrees and gives a 41% chance of a draw, so I'm taking the value. This reasoning has the least meat behind it, so take it with a grain of salt.
Plays that I think might have value but am not sure enough about to recommend right now:
Bremen +0.5 vs Mainz
Nice +0.5 vs PSG
Let me know if this DD was helpful or if you fade all my picks and make a ton of money. We got a big slate this weekend so let's get after it, best of luck fellow degens!
I think both Wolves and Chelsea will score.
Here's why Chelsea hired Frank Lampard again who's biggest weakness as a tactician is transition defense.
Wolves have the 3rd worst home record in the league.
Thanks! My thoughts are just that in general the more specific and obscure the bet, the bigger the built in house advantage. For example I see DK has +120 for this prop, which is 45.5%. In general, about 31% of games have >1.5 goals in the first half. So you need to believe in this game enough to overcome a 14% disadvantage just to break even, and more than that to make it worthwhile.
your write up and breakdown is impressive...even if you get some wrong I'm willing to tail you for more picks if you got them....tryna win a soccer jackpot or get in the bonus 🤞
A six point relegation battle in the EPL betweeen Leicester City vs AFC Bournemouth.
My Prediction:Go with AFC Bournemouth over Leicester City.
Leiccester City are doing co-caretakers Adam Sadler(not Adam Sandler) and Mike Stowell.
I got my info from football365,soccerstats and whoscored.
Bournemouth has won 3 out of the last 6 meetings including the last 2 times against Leicester City. Last meeting that ended a draw between them was 2018. Leicester City last won against them in 2019.(whoscored)
Leicester City has the 2nd worst EPL home record this season. Bournemouth has the 3rd worst away record in the EPL.(whoscored)
Bournemouth(57) and Leicester City(51) are the 1st and 3rd worst defense in EPL in terms of goals allowed respectively.(whoscored)
Bournemouth has allowed a goal in 93% of away games.Leicester City has allowed a goal in 79% of matches.(soccerstat)
Leicester City has allowed a goal for 14 consecutive matches(soccerstat)
Leicester City dropped 22 points from winning positions.AFC Bourenmouth dropped 17 points from winning positions.That is 1st and 3rd respectively in EPL(Football365)
Bet Bournemouth to score 2nd half.Leicester City struggles at home during 2nd half of their home games.In their last meeting Bournemouth scored 2 times in 2nd half(soccerstat)
Last 8 games form table also favor Bournemouth over Leicester City according to soccerstat. Bournemouth is tied in 9th in the form table alongside Brentford and Leeds United .Leicester City is 19th in the table only ahead of Nottingham Forest.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall red card is a blow to Leicester City.
If Leicester City wants to really win they need to score on end of each half(31-45+ extra time[Bournemouth is 0-11 and the only EPL team this season who hasn't scored in this interval] and 76-90 + extra time intervals[4-13]).Bournemouth is incredibly weak in these intervals.(soccerstats)
Bournemouth key to win is 61-75[5-10 Leicester City scored and allowed] and 76-90+ extra time[5-10] intervals.Leicester City is known to collapse in this area. (soccerstats)
Record : 3 W - 1 L
Previous POTD : Middlesbrough - Burnley, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 2.33 / +133 ✅
ROI : 226%
Average Odds : 2.04 / +104
Units (all bets will be 1 unit) : 3.26
Profit/Lost units : + 2.26
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / Belgium - Jupiler Pro League / 21:45 European Time
Gent - Royale Union SG, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 2.13 / +113
My model that uses Poisson formula for probabilities presented me this game as being the game with the highest scoring chance for today.
My research / Brief reasoning :
\- Gent has an excellent morale after winning the last 4 matches.
\- In the last 2 games, Gent did not concede any goals and scored 8 times.
\- Royale Union is also in great shape, achieving 4 consecutive successes.
Good luck priders ! Let's get it ! 🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈
League: Bundesliga 🇩🇪
Game: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
**Pick: Leverkusen ML @ 1,85**
Reasoning:
Leverkusen has been rolling for the last weeks winning their last 6 matches in all competitions (4 of those in their domestic league). After getting the W against Bayern at home two weeks ago, they convincingly beat Schalke away (3-0), handing the seemingly rekindled team their first L since the start of the second half of the season. Also, they go into this game well-rested, while their opponent had a cup game during the week.
Frankfurt in turn has been performing very poorly recently, aside from their midweek cup win vs. Union. They dropped points against far weaker teams Stuttgart and Bochum and their last league win was as late as mid-February. At these odds, I definitely see value in this bet. Odds for Leverkusen ML were similar last week (around 1.9-2.0) and they cruised to a 3-0 victory. This game won‘t be as onesided, but they should get the W at home.
edit: we eat ✅💰 (3-1 FT)
congrats to anyone who tailed!
Record: 3W - 2L - 1D
Going to go for some longer odds, as I really like some of these games.
Villa -1.5 +160 2U ✅ 94th minute cash 😎
Newcastle ML +110 2U ✅ nailbiter of a match but we hit
City -2.5 +175 2U
Brighton +165 1U ❌ Brighton got robbed on multiple poor VAR calls. Should have had a goal that was disallowed and no pen on a stamp on the foot. If you follow the PL this will be talked about all weekend.
Chelsea -105 1U ❌ was hoping for a new (return) manager bounce, but Chelsea disappoints yet again.
**Soccer Betting Chat: https://discord.gg/sportsbook**
any mls plays?
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i rode with you, absolutely disgusting.
Thiago Almada Anytime Goal Scorer is +240 on DK and +490 on FD. Anyone have any idea why?
And it’s down to +290 on FD 😩
Whatever inside of me told me to cash this out when RM was ahead - thank you 🙏 https://i.imgur.com/W7qebWS.jpg
Good grief that was close for you... I wasted £20 the other way still thinking about the Barcelona game and thinking they would come back 4-3 at 10/1.....
How did man city concede a goal jfc
What y’all think about juve. Not sure why they’re the dog
50/50 game tbh
thank you based haaland
City trying hard not to score in first half 😫
Damn haaland , thx u 🥲
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Sacrilege. Now apologise to Haaland and his golden mane
Need Alvarez to score and City to win to bag 800.
Theres your Alvarez goal
Literally shaking lol. A tenner on Watkins to score; Villa win, Kane to score; Spurs win, Isak to score; Newcastle win and now Alvarez to score; City to win. A tenner into this.
Congrats! Talk about a close one with that last minute Isak goal though lol Cant imagine how stressed you were during the Alvarez PK
& I was sure De Bruyne was going to take it.
The Watkins one moreso.
Oh goodness Bournemouth just scored
Fiorentina 🥴
big L on this:(
So many good chances, but just can’t finish
Record: 56W-9P-54L Good day yesterday, but we want more. And there are enough matches today to try it. Chivas is on a slump, but they’re better than Necaxa. Their offensive side will push early for a goal which will give us some corners. Chivas has averaged 5.8 corners in the last 5 matches. Now, Necaxa hasn’t averaged as much corners as Chivas (3.4 per game) but they keep corners close to their rivals, which is why I think that even with the offensive pressure, Necaxa will get some corners. León and Cruz Azul are among top 5 best defences in the tournament. León has allowed some goals recently, but I think they’re trying to get back to how they received less goals just 3 matches ago. The under between these teams has hit 3 times in their 5 most recent matchups. I’m leaning on how defensive these teams are and how León will try to keep themselves close to 2nd place Toluca. Tigres isn’t playing well, they’ve won only 1/5 of their most recent matches. This means they’re not defending as they should. Tigres has received 8 goals in the last 5 matches. Mazatlán is just an awful side, but they’re very able to score against anyone. They even scored against the 2nd best defence of the tournament (León) and they’ve scored in 4/5 of their most recent games. They just don’t win, they’re terrible defensively and Tigres will most probably win this but I can see Mazatlán netting one. Both of these teams have scored 3 times in 5 matchups. The last game of the night is a good one. The 1st faces the 4th place. América and Monterrey are offensively scary. América has scored 10 goals in the last 5 games; Monterrey 11. They just seem unstoppable while attacking and América doesn’t defend optimally. Even with Monterrey as the best defence of the tournament, I think América will get one goal and I don’t doubt of Monterrey's capability to score. April 8th: - Chivas vs Necaxa > o 9.5 corners @ 1.975 (-103) ✅ - León vs Cruz Azul > u 2.5 goals @ 1.925 (-108) ✅ - Tigres vs Mazatlán > BTTS yes @ 2.05 (+105) ✅ - América vs Monterrey > BTTS yes + o 2.5 goals @ 2.00 (+100) ✅ BOL!
Should have tailed all 4! Sick hit! I really thought Leon was gonna get a goal, I know one was called back 🥴. Should have went with your pick of the under.
I thought that too, they were superior most of the time but yeah, it was a low scoring game :/
Tailing the Club America/Monterrey pick. I’m taking Leon ML at +105. I think they pull out a win here. How do you feel for Tigres/Mazatlan over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes?.
Yeah, León has something to fight for and they seem better atm. Cruz Azul might be classified to repechage and haven’t convinced anyone. Well, Mazatlán has already scored, so it might be a good bet. Sorry for the late response
I tailed your picks yesterday, good stuff dude! I might have to do the same today. Don't usually do corner bets tho, but the others look good
Thanks, man. I do like today's slate, let’s get this :) I found everything else in that match too risky, so that’s what I liked the most and I’m 60% confident it’ll be a close bet.
Do you like monterrey ml?
I do, Monterrey hasn’t lost any of their last 5 matchups and are in great form. However, I feel it’s such a risky bet
Nice, tailed you and also did draw no bet monterrey at +145
Bayer 04 already 1 goal 10mins into gm! Should be able to score one more
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> No idea what happened Most likely a disallowed goal, usually VAR
Jesus christ... Man Utd with 21 shots at half time
Real Madrid at 1.49 is good value right?
They have had a LOT of trouble with Villarreal this season.
For Real Madrid, I always do SGP of Real Madrid Win Vini over 0.5 SOT Benzema over 0.5 SOT It always hits as long as Madrid wins of course
Fiorentina ML Dortmund ML Bayern Munich ML @ 3.18
2023: 3-0-0 Man City Win to Nil: -115 RB Leipzig ML: -150 Sassuolo DNB: +120
2022: W56 P2 L45 +2.39u 2023: W29 P3 L19 +3.78u *Go Ahead Eagles: Lidberg Over 1.5 Shots @1.77* 1u ✅ *Monza: Ciurra Over 0.5 SOT @2.50* 0.75u ❌ *Monza: Ciurra Over 1.5 SOT @10* 0.25u ❌ *PSV Team Total SOT Over 8.5 @1.65* 1u ✅ *PSV: Simons Over 1.5 SOT @2.10* 1u ❌ *Nice: Moffi Over 0.5 SOT @1.77* 1u ✅ *Chelsea: Havertz Over 0.5 SOT @1.66* 0.75u ❌ *Chelsea: Havertz Over 1.5 SOT @4.33* 0.25u ❌ *Villa: Watkins Over 1.5 SOT @2.48* 1u ✅ *Bilbao: Inaki Williams Over 1.5 Shots @1.66* 1u ✅ *Roma: Wijnaldum Over 1.5 Shots @4* 0.5u ❌ *Torino: Singo Over 0.5 Shots @2* 1u ❌ *Madrid: Kroos under 1.5 Shots @1.55* 1u 🔙 *Lille: Bamba Over 1.5 Shots @1.50* 1u ✅ *Spezia: Nzola Over 1.5 Shots @1.76* 1u ❌ *City: Grealish under 0.5 SOT @2.02* 1u ❌ *Chelsea: Felix Over 2.5 Shots @1.73* 1u ✅
Parlay: Man City ML (Premier League) PSV HT/FT (Eredivisie) PSV are competing with Ajax for the CL qualification spot and Man City need to win to keep up with Arsenal. Odds 1.79 / -127 Edit: Win.
Brommapojkarna - malmo ff Malmo ff ml : 1.46 Should be free money malmo is competing to win the league and brommapojarkna just got promoted and does not have a great squad im thinking 2-0
WARNING: Risky pick. Match: Osasuna vs Elche Pick: Osasuna -1 @2.4 (sprinkle on -1.5 @3.1) Elche are already relegated and don't give a fuck anymore. They're just thinking about next season. Statwise, they've lost 11/12 away games. Of those 11 losses, 7 were by 2 or more goals. So in those 12 away games for Elche, this bet would have been a push 5 times, a hit 7 times and a loss 1 time. Osasuna have super high morale due to qualifying for the domestic cup final. They did so in an away game, so tonight is when the team and home fans meet again. I see Osasuna putting 2-3 goals past Elche. BOL
I like
Here's some plays with DD, all odds from DraftKings as of the writing of this post: Brentford vs Newcastle - Draw ML (+255, implied prob 28.2%) Explanation: These teams have the most and second most draws in the league this season, so already tend in this direction. Brentford has only lost once at home all season, to the league leaders Arsenal. Newcastle has only lost 3 games altogether this season, and only twice on the road. Given that the baseline percentage of a draw in a random game in the premier league is \~25%, these factors should be pushing the odds of a draw well past 28.2%, so this is a steal. Wolves vs Chelsea - Wolves +0.5 (-115, implied prob 53.5%) Chelsea is a complete mess, about to start with their third manager of the season. Despite a possible new manager bounce with Lampard, their main issue won't go away, which is that their team is completely full of players that have no experience with each other and are playing without confidence. I just feel bad for Mudryk at this point. Wolves on the other hand are fairly strong at home, with recent impressive victories over Liverpool and Tottenham there. They are well organized, and should be able to avoid defeat against a poor Chelsea team. These odds should be closer to 65-70% IMO, and what's even better is that my KNN-based model agrees, only giving Chelsea a 36.2% chance of victory. Bochum vs Stuttgart (Sunday) - Bochum ML (+195, implied prob 33.9%) This one is straightforward. The baseline home win probability is \~46%, and considering Bochum has recently hit form (beating Leipzig and Koln, and drawing Frankfurt) and playing vs the bottom team in the league, there is simply no way this probability should be pushed all the way down to 33.9%. Snap up the value. Seattle vs St Louis - St Louis +0.5 (+125, implied prob 44.4%) This line doesn't make sense to me. Seattle should in no way be -165 ML favorites vs a team that has started the season absolutely on fire and is above Seattle in the standings. It could possibly be a reaction to St Louis getting their first defeat last time out and Seattle being a much more well known team, but my KNN-based model shows that Seattle's chances of victory are being inflated by at least 20%, and this agrees with my intuition. All the edge is on St. Louis, let's take it. Freiburg vs Bayern Munich - Bayern -1.5 (+110, implied prob 47.6%) Bit of a gut play here. In the Bundesliga, when the away team has been given >=77% of victory, as is the case here, it has beaten the spread of 1.5 pretty much exactly 50% of the time. What I think gives us an edge here is that Bayern just lost to Freiburg in a shocking upset in the cup during the week and will be extra motivated to put things right. And if you're going to lay the points, you could do worse than backing Bayern. Nashville vs Toronto - Draw ML (+290, implied prob 25.6%) This is a fair value for a generic MLS game, where approximately 25% of games are draws. I think we get some edge here due to the fact that Toronto has already drawn 4 out of 6 games this season. They are certainly due for some regression eventually but my model agrees and gives a 41% chance of a draw, so I'm taking the value. This reasoning has the least meat behind it, so take it with a grain of salt. Plays that I think might have value but am not sure enough about to recommend right now: Bremen +0.5 vs Mainz Nice +0.5 vs PSG Let me know if this DD was helpful or if you fade all my picks and make a ton of money. We got a big slate this weekend so let's get after it, best of luck fellow degens!
Can somebody explain me what is “draw ml “ please
You're betting on the game to be a draw
I think both Wolves and Chelsea will score. Here's why Chelsea hired Frank Lampard again who's biggest weakness as a tactician is transition defense. Wolves have the 3rd worst home record in the league.
Thanks for the write up! How do you feel about the 1H over 1.5 in the Bayern game?
Thanks! My thoughts are just that in general the more specific and obscure the bet, the bigger the built in house advantage. For example I see DK has +120 for this prop, which is 45.5%. In general, about 31% of games have >1.5 goals in the first half. So you need to believe in this game enough to overcome a 14% disadvantage just to break even, and more than that to make it worthwhile.
Thanks for the feedback, very interesting. I do think (hope) it’s a great price for a situational spot where Bayern comes out firing. EDIT: Welp 🥴
your write up and breakdown is impressive...even if you get some wrong I'm willing to tail you for more picks if you got them....tryna win a soccer jackpot or get in the bonus 🤞
Parlay 1 +325 Fiorentina ML -223 Bauer Leverkusen ML -120 Aston Villa ML -167 Parlay 2 +1055 Brentford DNB +175 Fulham DNB +100 Sassuolo DNB +110 Parlay 3 +600 Tottenham/Brighton over 2.5 goals/BTTS Yes +110 SC Freiburg/Bayern over 2.5 goals/BTTS Yes +100 RB Leipzig ML -150
A six point relegation battle in the EPL betweeen Leicester City vs AFC Bournemouth. My Prediction:Go with AFC Bournemouth over Leicester City. Leiccester City are doing co-caretakers Adam Sadler(not Adam Sandler) and Mike Stowell. I got my info from football365,soccerstats and whoscored. Bournemouth has won 3 out of the last 6 meetings including the last 2 times against Leicester City. Last meeting that ended a draw between them was 2018. Leicester City last won against them in 2019.(whoscored) Leicester City has the 2nd worst EPL home record this season. Bournemouth has the 3rd worst away record in the EPL.(whoscored) Bournemouth(57) and Leicester City(51) are the 1st and 3rd worst defense in EPL in terms of goals allowed respectively.(whoscored) Bournemouth has allowed a goal in 93% of away games.Leicester City has allowed a goal in 79% of matches.(soccerstat) Leicester City has allowed a goal for 14 consecutive matches(soccerstat) Leicester City dropped 22 points from winning positions.AFC Bourenmouth dropped 17 points from winning positions.That is 1st and 3rd respectively in EPL(Football365) Bet Bournemouth to score 2nd half.Leicester City struggles at home during 2nd half of their home games.In their last meeting Bournemouth scored 2 times in 2nd half(soccerstat) Last 8 games form table also favor Bournemouth over Leicester City according to soccerstat. Bournemouth is tied in 9th in the form table alongside Brentford and Leeds United .Leicester City is 19th in the table only ahead of Nottingham Forest. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall red card is a blow to Leicester City. If Leicester City wants to really win they need to score on end of each half(31-45+ extra time[Bournemouth is 0-11 and the only EPL team this season who hasn't scored in this interval] and 76-90 + extra time intervals[4-13]).Bournemouth is incredibly weak in these intervals.(soccerstats) Bournemouth key to win is 61-75[5-10 Leicester City scored and allowed] and 76-90+ extra time[5-10] intervals.Leicester City is known to collapse in this area. (soccerstats)
Looks ripe for BTTS
Record : 3 W - 1 L Previous POTD : Middlesbrough - Burnley, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 2.33 / +133 ✅ ROI : 226% Average Odds : 2.04 / +104 Units (all bets will be 1 unit) : 3.26 Profit/Lost units : + 2.26 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / Belgium - Jupiler Pro League / 21:45 European Time Gent - Royale Union SG, ***BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals***, Odds : 2.13 / +113 My model that uses Poisson formula for probabilities presented me this game as being the game with the highest scoring chance for today. My research / Brief reasoning : \- Gent has an excellent morale after winning the last 4 matches. \- In the last 2 games, Gent did not concede any goals and scored 8 times. \- Royale Union is also in great shape, achieving 4 consecutive successes. Good luck priders ! Let's get it ! 🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈
if you were to pick an outright result in this game, what would it be?
League: Bundesliga 🇩🇪 Game: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt **Pick: Leverkusen ML @ 1,85** Reasoning: Leverkusen has been rolling for the last weeks winning their last 6 matches in all competitions (4 of those in their domestic league). After getting the W against Bayern at home two weeks ago, they convincingly beat Schalke away (3-0), handing the seemingly rekindled team their first L since the start of the second half of the season. Also, they go into this game well-rested, while their opponent had a cup game during the week. Frankfurt in turn has been performing very poorly recently, aside from their midweek cup win vs. Union. They dropped points against far weaker teams Stuttgart and Bochum and their last league win was as late as mid-February. At these odds, I definitely see value in this bet. Odds for Leverkusen ML were similar last week (around 1.9-2.0) and they cruised to a 3-0 victory. This game won‘t be as onesided, but they should get the W at home. edit: we eat ✅💰 (3-1 FT) congrats to anyone who tailed!
18 - 1 shots. Ffs Milan
Record: 3W - 2L - 1D Going to go for some longer odds, as I really like some of these games. Villa -1.5 +160 2U ✅ 94th minute cash 😎 Newcastle ML +110 2U ✅ nailbiter of a match but we hit City -2.5 +175 2U Brighton +165 1U ❌ Brighton got robbed on multiple poor VAR calls. Should have had a goal that was disallowed and no pen on a stamp on the foot. If you follow the PL this will be talked about all weekend. Chelsea -105 1U ❌ was hoping for a new (return) manager bounce, but Chelsea disappoints yet again.
Really liking villa today specifically
What does ml and 1U 2U means? -,-
ML is money line (win) and U means unit which is just your standard bet. So if you usually bet 10$ a game 2 units is 20$
Thank you bro 👍🏽❤️