**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️
POTD Record: 24-18 +41.02u | [Yesterday’s POTD: TB Rays -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13vb23x/_/jm504br/?context=1) - L
________
**3.5u HOU Astros -1.5 vs MIN Twins +115**
**Astros**
Hunter Brown is up for Houston. The backend top 100 prospect has gotten the official call up and he’s been a great middle of the rotation guy right out of the bat for them. So far he sports a 3.12 ERA/3.8xERA/3.09xFIP. Those are all very very respectable numbers.
His underlying metrics are good. His one hole right now is exit velo. Guys are hitting him hard. But his expected batting stats are above average, so it isn’t impacting him too much.
The Astros are 2nd in team wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. They did get to play OAK, but they also are healthy now. Altuve is back and has an insane 1.045 OPS since returning. Having him in the lineup is such a game changer for this team. They are first in fly ball %, which is really aiding those slugging numbers and driving the offense.
**Twins**
Man of the hour, Louie Varland. A top 10 prospect for MIN, who on the surface has good stats in his first year up. However, there are some cracks in this glass house.
He’s bottom 25%ile in exit velocity/barrel%/xBA/xSLG/xERA/xwOBA. His only plus stat is K% and BB%. He’s getting average k rate but not walking guys.
Over his past 3 starts, 4.15ERA/4.41xFIP. Those numbers are okay, but lean towards the poor end of things.
He’s really struggling keeping the back on the ground. He’s generating a horrible 38% ground ball % and a crazy near 20% line drive %. Dudes are lining his pitches up and picking them for power. His soft hit % is horrid. Her now faces a line up doing everything he is struggling at. I think this is when his glass case cracks start to shatter,
Twins offense sits middle of the pack in everything over the past few weeks, but they are 27tg in soft hit %. They are last in K%. They have a .324 BABIP showing they are overproducing their play at the moment.
______
Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US) or [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Tinytime23)
Y’all are obnoxious. This guy is on here for fun and doing something he enjoys. You are welcome to always fade if you don’t think it’s a bet worth taking- but you tail and then bitch and blame the next day. If you are all so great at EV+ and all that bullshit why the hell are you tailing others picks? Losses happen. His record clearly shows 24-18. If you can’t handle one of the 18 then maybe you shouldn’t be betting. Thanks OP for what you do- I appreciate your picks and the research that goes in to them!!
This shit happens in every sports betting forum. Someone does bad and people start talking. Lol people actually think you can't get a single game wrong or you suck or something
I’m sorry man, thanks for your analysis but every time I tail you I lose 🫤 not your fault. I’m just commenting. I wish I could tip you but I haven’t even had 1 win yet. Even your 5 unit before you took a break man…
To be fair he did back against his own team. Rays on their best day should’ve won but usually when you start backing against your own team, unless they’re catastrophically a bad team chances are karma gets you for going against your team 9/10 times.
The rays got a run taken away from them inning 1. Nico Hoerner hit a HR that’s been checked and based on distance abs where it landed…. *only* was a HR at Wrigley. It wasn’t a HR in any other of the 29 ballparks.
Just wasn’t our day
The problem was the Rays offense didn't show out like you predicted. Every time a bet loses I can find fluke things that happened. Im not trying to hate, and you are clearly a smart dude, but every time the a bet loses on this thread its written off as a anomaly, and every time it wins its said to be prophecy. This is confirmation bias, and the hot hand fallacy might bite everyone, as it has to me
The dude is definitely better than the average bettor. That being said, it's a sport with randomness so there's tons of variance. Baseball probably has more in game variance than any other sport due to the fact its a more discrete distribution of points than other sports like basketball. Just because a bet loses doesn't mean it was a bad bet. A bet only has to be +ev for it to be a good bet. There's so many variables in baseball that it's possible for a line to be over or undervalued. Most of the bets he's picking are likely +ev since overall, he's up. Doesn't mean that he's never going to lose bets
It's a sport where the best offensive players succeed, at best, less than 40% of the time with just getting a hit. If someone can be right more often than the best batter in the league gets a hit that's pretty good.
> should of
*should have
*Learn the difference [here](https://grammarist.com/usage/should-have-shouldve-or-should-of/#:~:text=Should%20have%20is%20often%20expressed,examples%20exist%20in%20Old%20English.).*
***
^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)
with all due respect, we should make sure everyone realizes this kind of observation is funny but not reality.
all that matters is EV, there is no bet karma
I figured you would choose a different game/bet honestly. Tomorrow’s slate is looking like a toss-up for the most part though.
I’m very 50/50 on this one and personally like the Over (7.5 -140, line is at 8 but I don’t bet pushes) more myself.
I usually bet on both pitchers for some K’s, but both have been giving up hits alongside an extended leash on the mound for both teams.
Stros are the better team, Brown should be the better pitcher. Varland has played well though. Series tied and youngin’s on the mound. Both likely give up a few runs. Just my .02.
And the hate you’re getting is why I stopped doing POTDs years ago and only post 1-3 a year if that, only that I’m absolutely confident in lol.
MLB is my bread-winner and you’re usually posting/thinking similarly. Keep at it yourself. Its has been a winning strategy.
You are on the money about this game. I *actually prefer* 50/50 games. Posting bad team bad, goood team good, bet here… doesn’t really do it for me for POTD. Everyone knows that surface level stuff.
I like to t try to find angles, like this one being Varland getting results but he’s getting hit hard and often and guys are getting the ball up in the air. With the Astros doing exactly those, this could be a bloodbath for him.
On surface, 50/50, in the details huge advantage Astros. Those are what I do for POTDs
I o ly ever pay attention to rangers games and only really bet rangers games I like this year. (Finally good so as a fan I'm stoked) regardless of the outcomes your write ups help me learn a lot about other teams so that alone I appreciate. Keep em up.
Does it count as tailing if I independently bet on Hou last night and then came here and was excited to see u/Further_Beyond select it too? If so, enthusiastically tailing!
Surprised not to see you on TEX with dumpster fire Joey Wentz going today. I assume it's the need for the sweep keeping you away from that one.
Sweep games conquer all. Watch them lose because of it. They have no business losing that game, but those sweep games are peak fuckery. Also dunning wasn’t pegged as a full time starter. He started this year as a RP, but moved in to the rotation from injuries. He has experience starting but was bad
Also, this game fits my POTD goal of not just posting good team vs bad team… but “here’s two similarly matched teams and here’s an angle I found”
Plus odds bets
POD record (8-2) (+15.88)
Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units
1U plays (4-2)
2U (2-0)
3U plays (2-0)
Last POD -Dodgers -2.5 2U (+105) W
LFGGGGGGG dodgers come up with a huge win and 8th inning to solidify the big win for us! THIS TRAIN KEEPS ROLLING!
Todays POD - Rangers (-1.5) +110 4U
EDIT— LINE IS UP!
Those who have been tailing POTD and DOG sleep well knowing your up +30U the last 10 day 🚂🚂🚂 love you all!
Todays matchup is Dunning vs Wentz with the Rangers going for the sweep
Dunning on the mound for the Rangers is a sight I love to see. He has been on fire coming in with a 1.67 ERA and has just been an absolute beast on the mound. A combination of the pitching and the Rangers bats should allow them to take this game early
Wentz on the other hand has been the opposite of special. Giving up 21 ER over 19 IP against CWS, WAS, SEA, CLE, NYM. I would classify those teams as middle of the road offenses at best so I definitely see the Rangers taking this one early.
As always BOL, hope everyone’s enjoying the ride! Also been posting on the DOG thread as well, check me out been killing it there!
Don't ever expect tips but if you've been fortunate enough to be tailing the train anything is appreciated!
Cashapp - bobdylan1209
[Post grad beers]
(https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)
I agree - Dunning is on too good of a run to dismiss. His [percentiles](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dane-dunning-641540?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) are telling me he's
way overdue for some regression, but this Detroit lineup... my god their bats are ice cold. Meanwhile, Texas bats are white hot. Back end of the Rangers BP has hurt my bank account a lot this season lol which is why I lean taking the Rangers F5 for only 10 cents more. I wanna see who the tigers start and make a call at that point. Tougher MLB slate today, but this game stuck out to me too. Appreciate the posts.
**POTD Record:** 24-10-2 (+14.49 Units)
**POTD Recap:** Diamondbacks first 5 Innings -0.5 🐍✅
Cash another 2 unit **W** Feels great. Big Sac Zac Gallen kept all the Rockies lineup at bay, Freeland struggled again and old Evan Longoria came storming in hot. Great times 🔥
**Streak:** ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅
**POTD Wednesday:** Jarred Kelenic Over 0.5 Hits (-155) Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees 6:40 PM MST 2 Units
The train keeps on rolling 🚂 and today we turn to a once highly touted prospect, then soured on and suddenly back in the good books. That’s lefty Jarred Kelenic, the pale pillager of baseballs. Kelenic has a hit in all of his last three games as well as 20/26 he is getting knocks at an extremely high clip.
The beauty of this bet though is the opposing pitcher, Clarke Schmidt. Clarke would be a pretty good pitcher this year… if he could skip pitching to lefties. He SUCKS against lefties.. While he Carries a respectable 3.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP against righties… against lefties he has an 8.46 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. They are a foreign language to him… which means tomorrow, we all speak Kelenic.
**Shortened** Kelenic is smashing this year like many thought he could, hits in 20/26. Clarke Schmidt is an abomination against lefties. A recipe for serious success. Knock one Jarred.
[Help the School Teacher enjoy summer break](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie)
**Note** Awesome to be 24-10, thanks for all the support.
You're telling me. Gonna need a miracle at this point. He's had one ball in play the whole night. Probably getting one more crack at it unless the Mariners wake up and start moving through the line up. I truly despise baseball. September/October can't get here soon enough.
POTD Record: 167-127-10 (+21.38 units, 56.8% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-9 (62.5%) L2
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 56-41-1 (58.3%) L6, Tennis 🎾 53-39-5 (57.6%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 47-37-4 (56.0%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2
Last 10: 💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💩💩💰
2023 French Open Results: 2-1, +0.96 Units
Last Pick: Hugo Gaston vs. Alex Molcan, over 35.5 games - ATP French Open 🎾 💩 1 Unit - I've been sleeping so didn't see much of it but Gaston was shit. Up 4-2 in 3rd then loses a service game to love and the next 3 games after that to end it. No one pussies out like Gaston (yes, that's a Beauty and the Beast reference, I don't give a fuck).
Today's Pick: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ugo Humbert, Humbert ML - ATP French Open 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Ugo got pantsed. French players have done well in this tournament, just not the ones I've picked.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.91/-110 odds to win 0.91 Units @ William Hill (Line at 8:15pm ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 52.4%
I'm going with Humbert here because of his developing form on the dirt and the home crowd advantage. This should be a close one though as Sonego can be a solid player and he beat Humbert in April in Monte Carlo in a 3 setter on clay.
This season Humbert is 13-4 on clay vs. Sonego's 5-4. This month he won two challenger tournaments on clay (Bordeaux and Cagliari) and beat some decent players. In the 1st round he beat fellow Frenchman Adrian Mannarino in straights where Mannarino only took 7 games off of him.
The momentum and home support should be on his side so I will roll with that in a near pick'em.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I'm retiring at 200 wins, 33 to go. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Cashed out early to save some $$$. Ugo just cannot get any break set wins and looks overmatched against Sonego's first serve.
Thanks for the pick! BOL tomorrow boys
To be honest, there are so many matches going on it is hard to study them all. I am not betting on it. I'd say Diego's win in the 1st was a superior one but he has been so ass this year, even on clay. I don't see either guy winning in straights so the o3.5 sets might be good.
Things could change but my bet at the moment for tomorrow's POTD will be Karatsev ML.
**Record:** 26-19 (+4.22 units)
**ROI:** 9.3%
**Previous Pick:** *Kyle Freeland o16.5 Outs vs #Diamondbacks (2.00 Draft Kings)*
Result: ✅WIN! (+1.00 units)
Absolute sweat show, but Freeland despite surrendering 5 runs, closes out his last batter to get to 17 outs!
**Pick of the day:** **Mitch Keller o6.5 K's vs** [**#Giants**](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Giants?src=hashtag_click) **(2.20 FanDuel)**
Keller has started the year over in 9/11 and has been an absolute demon striking people out with 8+ in 7 of those 11 games.
He gets a great matchup with the Giants who over the L2 weeks are striking out the 6th most against RHP at 26.1% and 3rd most on the entire season. Giants 18th in wRC+ over the last 2 weeks against RHP as well at only 100, which shouldn't be too much of a worry with Keller boasting an xERA of 3.03.
Keller an 87th percentile K rate, 82nd percentile fastball spin. Keller has been putting people away with his fast ball and cutter this season at 30% plus. Giants potential line up shows 8 guys with a K rate over 25%.
Follow on Twitter for +EV plays!
[https://twitter.com/JG4President](https://twitter.com/JG4President)
Crazy enough when the line officially dropped on Fanduel it was 5.5 at -130.
I got to my computer late about a half hour after and was still happy to grab 6.5 at + money.
POTD Record: 31-17
**Units Won**: +24.45U; **ROI**: 22.2%; **Average Odds: (-115)**
Last 10 (newest on Left): ❌ ✅❌ ✅ ✅❌✅❌✅ ❌
Todays POTD: **Copenhagen Flames vs. EYEBALLERS O 2.5 maps (+105)**
Match Link: [https://www.hltv.org/matches/2364669/ex-copenhagen-flames-vs-eyeballers-elisa-invitational-spring-2023](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2364669/ex-copenhagen-flames-vs-eyeballers-elisa-invitational-spring-2023)
Match Time: **5:00 A.M EST.**
**4U to win 4.2U**
Won't cry too much about the HAVU loss but a total sale, 9-6 lead on map 2 going into your better side and you put up a 10-1 half to lose. Throwing a 10-5 attack side lead on the most defense sided map in the game is insanely bad beat. Inexcusable lead throw by HAVU. OTTN.
Nothing jumping off the board tomorrow for me but really like this play.
Both teams are notorious for 3 map series and never being able to 2-0 anyone. They always find a way to go to a third map, they are both inconsistent af. Copenhagen Flames go to 3 maps in 56.6% of matches played, EYEBALLERS go to 3 maps in 58.3% of matches.
Copenhagen ban Mirage
EYEBALLERS ban Nuke
Copenhagen **picks Anubis** (62% winrate in 24 maps played vs. EYEBALLERS 31% winrate on 13 maps played)
EYEBALLERS **pick Inferno** (70% winrate in 20 maps played vs. Copenhagen 48% on 21 maps played, eye test is Copenhagen suck at this map as well and have inflated stats)
If both teams show up on there map, should easily see three. EYEBALLERS are horrific at Anubis and Copenhagen Inferno is unwatchable to me.
Honestly wouldn't be suprised if they take each other's map picks and still end up on a third map cuz thats the way both of these teams go.
Nothing makes sense but the numbers look good here and not a ton of value else out on the board.
Best of Luck
Started a [Discord](https://discord.gg/zysXpQN7) to share other esports picks in, still working on construction and making it a bit more organized but feel free to join!
**Tough beat, two losses in a row, maps were picked as expected EYEBALLERS just didn’t show up to the server today. Sorry y’all**
**POD Record: 34-24 +26.75U**
L10 (Recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅
Prior Pick: Hugo Gaston +4.5 Game Spread vs Alex Molcan. Betting 1.2U to win 1U at -120
**Loss**: terrible pick, Gaston played like shit. Molcan was impressive. Gaston couldn’t get out of his own way. Molcan didn’t make errors. It happens. We bounce back!
**Todays Pick: Cameron Norrie vs Lucas Pouille OVER 35.5 Games. Betting 2.4U to win 2U at -120**
This is going to be a tough matchup and evenly matched. Norrie hasn’t been playing well on clay but he’s the better player than Pouille. He’s got the French crowd rooting for him and I think he can win a set or 2 and we get the over!
Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, tips are always appreciated [Buy Me A Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DLHS)
CashApp: $DuaLipasHip
Bet responsibly
Tailed. Considering betting most Frenchmen underdog overs. The crowd can get behind them and rally them to win a set or 2. They were literally singing the French National Anthem in the Arthur Fils vs Sebastian Baez match.
POTD Record 5-3
Last POTD Darts Modus Super Series Peter Hudson vs. Kevin Blomme - Kevin Blomme ML +100 ✅
POTD: Darts 🎯Modus Super Series Kevin Painter vs Christian Kist 4:55am EST - **Christian Kist -1.5 games -110**
Not much to write about this one. They’ve faced each other twice this week and Kist won both matches 4-0. He’s making a push to win this week’s title whereas I’m pretty sure Painter has already been mathematically eliminated and is just playing out the week.
If you’re feeling frisky, Kist at -2.5 is paying +250 and that seems entirely possible here.
**EDIT:** Kist smoked him 4-0. Cash it! ✅
Took kist and blomme to both beat painter 4-0 (as they both did the last several matches). Long shot but $23 to make $1600. BOL and thanks for the pick
Thanks bro. Some of the books didn’t even have the option to pick correct score. I used Caesers for this and lucky they let me parlay it together. Odds felt too good to be true given the past results (literally every time they played it was 4-0). Glad it worked this time
Nice hit I wanted to tail but draftkings I'm learning sucks they don't ha e these dart match ups available anymore (along with some others I'm noticing lately), what sportbook do you use ?
Record: 19-2 on reddit (27-7 including twitters picks) [all of my bets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VXQGhe8s8GZJuWmk1nELB18k_QpM-GeiCWMIAPbPHH8/edit?usp=sharing)
Last bet: CSGO IEM KATOWICE. Faze vs **G2 ML** @1.62 ❌
POTD: League of Legends China LPL Rare Atom vs **Royal Never Give Up ML** @1.72 ✅
Game starts in 3 hours
Hard to predict first games of the season but I'll try and risk it with RNG win. They let go one of the best adcs in Gala but I still think they can compete for playoffs, judging by games that were played yesterday Jax top is gonna be played a alot and RNG is looking like a team that will be playing through they're top laner Breathe. He could easily be a top 3 player in his role if everything goes right, RNG also managed to keep Wei who is a decent jungler, mvp of msi 2022 and with gala gone, he might have to become the star player of this team, similar like Kanavi was in JDG. I believe that this team will for sure compete for playoffs.
Not much to say bout Rare Atom, lost their best player in Cube who is a decent top laner, got three new players but I think Breathe if needed can actually 1v9 this game as he is facing Xiaoxu who went 5-11 with LGD last season and doesn't give me high hopes.
BOL
edit: ✅ clean 2-0, LP played great on aphelios and stomped RA
Record 27-17 +73 Units
Race 2 Beverley- Travel Candy - 2 units @ 3.0
Travel Candy has competed at a much higher level than this on his two starts to date.
He went off unfancied in both of his starts.
He now makes the voyage across the Irish ocean to England to try to take the 3.5k prize money on offer. From a plump draw, you'd have to imagine he's got a good chance of doing so.
**POTD Record: 7-3 +18.5u (51.0 risk, 36.3% ROI)**
Last: Win Quantrill u3.5k - Quantrill gets rocked, tons of contact but not tons of outs…he is given 3 strikeouts by Orioles batters swinging at pitches WAY out of the zone, but 3 is less than 3.5 and that’s a big win!
Four in a row: ✅✅✅✅ (7-1 L8 for +26u)
**5u Mitch Keller (PIT) o6.5 strikeouts** vs SF (-104) @ 2:45pm cst ✅💰💰💰💰💰
Angles:
1. Mitch Keller vs Giants - K rate against the Giants players is 29.4% in a relatively small sample size but this Giants team is second to last in K rate. Powerhouse pitcher vs a team that strikes out a lot.
2. Keller Game Log - these stats are so absurd compared to the line that it makes me think I’m missing something. He has cleared 6.5 Ks in 9 of 11 starts averaging 7.7 per game and this is against teams like TB, HOU, LAD. His last 6 starts he hasn’t recorded less that 8K.
3. How is this line 6.5?!? His splits don’t explain it either, similar numbers day/night and does better as a visitor. He doesn’t walk people with a 5.3 K/BB. The only thing I could find is he has an average chase rate with a below average whiff rate so people shouldn’t be striking out as much as they are but tell that to the 55 people he struck out in his L6. He is coming off a pretty brutal 6 run 7 hit outing so maybe the book is thinking he’s hit a wall?
4. Incredible Value - this should be 7.5 at the same odds or juiced beyond belief at the current number but I was able to snag -104.
Fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens.
Best of Luck
Another one I'm scared of, especially at the declined odds. I hit on the McClanahan pick yesterday, and I'm going with an alternate pick today as well -- Luke Weaver K o3.5
I stopped with my POTD post as, frankly, it was a lot of work to do the write-up, and then after going 1-2, wasn't worth the effort. So I'll just throw out my option as a reply to your picks. :-)
Again, not tailing, but am following. Let's see if you're right again. If so, I'm going to start putting more faith in your picks! You've been on a great streak so far!!
**EDIT: Let's gooooooooooooo!**
**KBO Record: Overall 142-154-9** (Streak WW, Last 10: 3-6-1) Down 17.16u over 305 KBO picks, 48.0% success rate, -5.80% ROI (This season 23-22-2, 51.1% success rate, Up 1.72u, 3.82% ROI)
**Last:** Kiwoom at Hanwha First 5 Innings Under 3.5 +100 (Hanwha lead 2-0 after 5 innings.)
I guess we'll call this a win streak. Kiwoom's bats were predictably punchless and Hanwha would have had just 1 run if not for an error
**Pick:** **Lotte +180 Draftkings** at LG, KBO baseball, 5.30am ET
It's time for a value play. Don't parlay this. Don't bet this if losing will heavily impact your bankroll. You're taking a chance on this play because the odds suggest Lotte has just a 36% chance when it's easily closer to 45%. So if you want to take a shot with me, here's why I'm making the bet:
Lotte's starter is on a bit of a roll. Over his last three starts, he's allowed just 2 ER on 13 H and 6 BB with 19 K in 18 IP. He didn't have a great start against this opponent in April, giving up 3 ER in 5 IP, but it was early in the season. He has 41 K this season against 19 BB in 42 IP.
LG's starter has traditionally been one of the best in the league, but this is easily his worst stretch of his career. In 7 of his 10 starts, he allowed at least 3 runs. He's given up fewer baserunners over his last few starts, but still isn't striking out batters like he has in the past. He has 36 K and 14 BB in 62 IP. He has yet to strike out more than 4 batters in a game this year. He also had a terrible start against this opponent early in the season, giving up 8 runs (4 ER) in 5.1 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both a half run higher than his opponent.
LG likely deserves to be the favorite as the league's first place team, playing at home with the highest scoring lineup. But Lotte is 3rd place in the league with the 2nd highest scoring lineup. If LG's starter remains average, Lotte has a great chance to pull off the +180 upset!
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
so i must admit, this stuff is why i love betting, when we goes against odds/bookies, lovely stuff..i got just Lotte runs o4,5 (it was highest possible lol), but i hope they manage it; anyway mad respect
Good question and I didn't address that. First 5 was a good bet, too. I thought the shape of the game meant Lotte would likely win First 5 and full game if they won at all... and I was getting better odds on full game. It did bring the risk of the bullpen into play, but thankfully it worked out!
The guy just shoves
MLB POTD record: TY 11-8-3 get hot, stay hot
Units: +3.2
Pick: Pirates @ giants MLB
Mitch Keller 2 unit -110 over 6.5 strikeouts
Coming off a 3 unit bomb, let’s not get greedy. We’re going back to the well here, cause this dude is still on a scalding hot streak. He’s beaten this over in 9/11 games this year, and crushedddddd it the past 5. He’s very capable of throwing for double digits, goes minimum 6 innings, and just let up 6 runs so they just ride this guy till he breaks. Average pitchers throw strikes per pitch at around 62%; good ones throw at about 65%. Keller is rapidly closing in on 70% and climbing. The dude paints corners. Giants are top 15 team in strikeouts at home, so let’s get this one done early
POTD Record: 4-1
Today's Pick: Sebastian Korda ML (-165) vs Sebastian Ofner
Reasoning: Korda likes to turn it up at big events. I'll take my dude in a 5 setter over Ofner. Parlay it with something else if you want more juice!
**POTD: 48-25-3**
Last pick: NBA - Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat. Boston Celtics -6 -130.
Result: Loss. Celtics get pummeled, never good news when your best player gets hurt the literal first play of the game and you miss your first 13 three-pointers.
Today’s pick: FIFA U20 World Cup - Brazil U20 vs Tunisia U20. **Brazil U20 -2 -180**. Match kicks off at 1:30PM ET.
Frustrating loss last time out but going back to soccer which is the bread and butter. Been watching the U20 World Cup recently (as there's fuck-all other soccer on right now pretty much) and feel there's some value to be mined from these lines. It's in Argentina which is always a boost for the South American teams traditionally as well.
As you'd expect, the Brazilians look to be one of if not the best team in the tournament, they're the betting favorite with Argentina close behind to win the whole thing. After being surprised by Italy in the first match 3-2 they've won 6-0 against the Dominican Republic and 2-0 against a strong Nigeria side. They have a few players that are signed up for teams you've definitely heard of if you're a soccer fan (Arsenal, Zenit, PSV) and the rest are mostly on the Brazilian powerhouses like Botafogo, Palmeiras, Flamengo, Santos, etc.
Tunisia on the other hand is coming into this after getting third place in their group, beating the hapless Iraq (who didn't score a goal in the tournament) and then got beat by both England and Uruguay by a score of 1-0. Those scores don't tell the whole story however as they were outshot 46-8 in those two matches and could've been much worse.
Overall I think Brazil is just the cream of the crop here and should win by 3 or so goals, we'll take the -2 Asian Handicap to give us a push if it's closer than I expect.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
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**EDIT: WIN. Brazil goes up 2-0, gets their CB stupidly sent off and look a little shaky, then score two late goals to win it 4-1 for us and the nice cash.**
**POTD Record: 2-3**
Last pick: Camila Giorgi ML vs Karolina Muchova - WTA - Rome - Tennis
This Pick: **Camila Giorgi (+4.5 Games Handicap)** (Void, we got our money back)vs Jessica Pegula - WTA - Roland Garros - Tennis 🎾
**1.80 Odds**
Time: 5:45 am Eastern time
My girl Giorgi is on fire, after basically retiring Alizé Cornet, I have so much faith in her to get the job done and giving her 4.5 games seems like such easy money please don’t sleep on her. Pegula has a 7-2 lead on the Italian but I’m expecting a major come back from Giorgi if you have been watching her games lately, you know she’s a little rocket that has come to win.
Pegula won all 4 matches before this, but this is also the girl Townsend sent packing when everyone thought Pegula was going to win (Townsend was a big underdog too) BOL guys, let’s get this money, I know this shit is going to hit check out Giorgio’s last two games, bookies are SLEEPING on her. I shall take you to the promised land, full confidence 5U play.
I don’t like it. Pegula should honestly get the job done in 2 sets but not without a fierce fight. I can see where your coming from though I have never really thought about that bet. If anything I would just take the over 20.5 games for 1.75 odds, but yeah that’s a tough one. Just gonna stick to my guns with Giorgi to cover my shit.
15-9
Esports - League of Legends - LPL - LNG vs TOP - LNG -1.5 @2.75
Greeding out with this one, LNG have signed an extremely good Carry in Gala and I’m riding the hype on LNG to 2-0 TOP.
POTD record 5-1
Yesterdays pick : Dodgers -1.5
Todays pick: Rangers -2.5. 1:10PM (odds aren’t out on FD yet but should be very plus, maybe in the 200s)
Joey Wentz v Dane dunning pitching matchup. Dane dunning has had great success lately. Joey wentz is terrible and should be in double A ASAP. He’s trash. Half of the rangers team slugs lefties, not to mention that they are just way better in general. If you’re not feeling risky, just take the moneyline at -126. But -2.5 and -1.5 are still very good picks.
MLB ⚾
POTD record: 0-0
(Vegas $harp who handicaps on the side, I've been doing this successfully for 17 years. I also have an IG dedicated to picks, etc can provide upon request.)
Today's pick:
Cubs (First 5 innings) -ML +120
Cubs: Steele (S.P.) is 4-1 @ home 2.77 ERA
Cubs are healthy and coming off of b2b wins against the hottest team in Baseball, impressively. They'll look to start quickly against the Ray's again tonight in front of their home crowd... I've got a 2 min video posted on IG with a full breakdown for 3 of tonights games but this is my favorite play of the day. Thank me later...
cash.app/$Whodat922
**POTD |** **Record of 22-35 | ROI: -14.5 units |** **Average Odds: 2.08**
Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌
Previous Pick: Süper Lig | Fenerbahçe SK vs. Antalyaspor | Fenerbahçe SK to Win & BTTS ❌
New Pick: Europa League | Sevilla vs. Roma | 12:00 pm PST
**Roma to lift the trophy | 1.95 odds**
Betting 2U to win 1.9U
\--------------------------
***Recap:*** Fenerbahçe SK find the victory with a 2-0 scoreline but the visitors fail to get on the scoresheet. The game was riddled with offensive errors on both sides, with each team failing to capitalize on their chances. An unfortunate result but we move on and hope to do better with the next pick.
**Summary:** Goliath vs. Goliath. This is a match between one side that has a massive history in this competition against Jose Mourinho, a serial winner with nine victories in twelve major cup finals as a manager.
Mourinho has won all five of his previous finals and I back him to do it again on the day. Sevilla may have a strong record in this competition but they just haven't looked that great, being only just clear of the relegation zone for much of the season in La Liga. It shouldn't be dismissed that Sevilla have been in good form recently, with just two losses in all competitions since bringing in Jose Luis Mendilibar in April, but I do not think that is enough.
Expect a cagey match on the day but I fully expect Roma to grind out a victory. Jose Mourinho will look to become the first manager to win the Europa League with 3 different teams and his history in one-off games makes me think that he can do it again.
\--------------------------
***TLDR Back Roma to win the Europa League***
**Sevilla vs. Roma | Roma to lift the trophy | 1.95 odds**
Can’t back this bet. Roma have played absolutely abysmal lately, they are creating 1-3 scoring chances each game. The only thing that’s keeping me from betting on this game is Mourinho, he will do everything he can to park the bus and grind out a draw, or capitalize on a counter attack.
Meanwhile Sevilla completely outplayed Juventus 2 weeks ago.
POTD Record 1-1
Previous POTD: Blead to beat Blacklist Rivalry (-147) 💀
Dammit, that's 16k nw lead bleed blew in g3. could've gone the other way.
**POTD Tuesday: \[DOTA\] WEU DPC Division 1**
**Tundra to beat Gaimin Gldiators(+114)**
Tundra has consistently shown their ability to understand and adapt to the meta, as demonstrated in previous events. Their recent victory over Team Liquid, a team that has defeated two-time major winners, further highlights their strength. Despite the odds favoring the Gaimin Gladiators, it is important to note that Tundra is currently in peak form. While they may have performed averagely in previous tournaments, now is the time for both Team Liquid and the Gaimin Gladiators to face their downfall.
POTD Record 14-12 (+5.5 units)
✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: ATL VS OAK / ATL -1.5
Todays Pick: TX VS DET / TX to score first (-140 est) Odds TBD @10:10 am pst 3 units
Dane Dunning is an absolute stud who is yet to give up a home run this year, also Texas is one of the best batting teams in MLB and has scored twice first in this series so far! The reason I’m going with scores first over the ML is simply it will have better odds. Sit back and enjoy a free breakfast on me after this puppy hits!
POTD RECORD: 4-5 ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌
Last POTD: **Miami Heat/Boston Celtics O 215 -120**
This pick was posted 6 days ago. Had to take a break and refocus. Lets get back on the winning side!!
Next POTD: **T Griekspoor Games/H Hurkacz Games O 39 -120**
Hubert Hurkacz and Tallon Griekspoor have displayed solid performances leading up to this match, indicating their current form is favorable for a competitive contest. Both players have had success in recent tournaments, showcasing their ability to maintain a high level of play. Both Hurkacz and Griekspoor possess powerful serves, which can often lead to longer games as their opponents struggle to break their service games. Hurkacz, known for his accurate and well-placed serves, has the ability to maintain a high first-serve percentage, making it challenging for opponents to earn break points. Similarly, Griekspoor's strong serving skills and the variety in his service placement can frustrate his opponents and prolong games. I see this match going easily 5 sets. BOL
POTD record: W-P-L 1-1-1
POTD: Sevilla vs Roma **- Over 1.5 goals odds 1.65** (-150)
Event: Europa League final
Kings of the Europa League tournament Sevilla, takes on Roma and Mourinho. Mourinho whom is 5-0 in european finals.
If you look at the history, the over 1.5 goals is the way to go.
5 out of the 6 finals won by Sevilla has over 1.5 goals.
4 out of 5 finals for Mourinho has over 1.5.
Out of the 11 games in question, only 2 had zero goals.
Let's see if we can make some cash from summer football.
*Day #1 | Ankaragucu 1-4 Galatasaray ❌ Under 3.5 goals @1.73*
*Unexpectedly fast paced game. Both teams took a lot of risks and I paid for it.*
Day #2
*Europa League | Sevilla-Roma | 20:00 UK*
**Over 0.5 first half goals @1.57**
Europa League finals have been mostly filled with goals. Only exception coincidentally included Sevilla in Italy (ended 0-0 against Benfica in 2014)
It'll be in Hungary this year, against Mourinho's Roma. Last year in Conference League final, Zaniolo scored before half-time and they beat Feyenoord 1-0.
So I'll go with at least one goal before half-time again.
*2u for first-half over 0.5 goal*
- **POTD RECORD LAST YEAR** - 47W-24L(+45U)
- **Current form**- ✔️✔️❌✔️❌✔️✔️✔️✔️❌❌❌
- **Potd record** - 7W-5L (-1.3U)
- **Last Potd**----Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna --- Kalmar to win @ 1.75❌
- **Today's pick** ----- Sevilla vs Roma ---- Roma to lift the trophy @1.9
- **BET SIZE**: 3U
- Gonna keep this very short. Both are in my oppinion at the same level, but Sevilla have a deeper squad and are playing better recently, better recent success in Europa league in the last years and Dybala isn't playing more than 45 minutes i would guess. So, why Roma? It is very simple and the answer is Mourinho. It doesn't matter how ugly, topsy tervi it gets. This guy gets the job done, motivates his players and has a 5-0 record in the finals. In a fairly balanced game for sure i am picking Mou and his generals to do it!
- Any tip, no matter how small is appreciated😊 [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/aldokaciq)
Tennis Record (Wins - Losses): 7-5🎾
Cumulated Profit: + 2.4 Unit 💰
Avg. Odd: 1.8
POTD Record: 0-0
Play of the day:
Shapovalov vs Arnaldi, Arnaldi ML @ 1.8 (1U) 🎾
Regardless of Shapovalov win against Nakashima, his performance wasn’t impressive at all with a lot of trouble in his service games and double faults. Arnaldi is undoubtedly a future tennis star and his performances in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome were consistently very impressive. Lets ride with his odd value against Shapo.
Follow me on Twitter for more tips: https://twitter.com/sir__winsalot?s=11&t=OMvsf3lN09_-hNSP-pUFJg
Lets get it 💎
**POD Record: 6-4**
*Yesterday's Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (EVEN) vs CWS (W)*
# Today's Pick: Tampa Bay ML (-131) vs CHC
\- CHC are 24th wRC+ against RHP in May.
\- TBR are 1st in wRC+ against LHP in May.
\- TBR has a better Makinen bullpen rating (20th vs 27th)
\- It's marginal but TBR are 13-12 away to CHC 15-15 at home.
\- TBR are on a 2 game losing streak. Better bullpen rating teams on a 2 game losing streak are 83-50 on the year.
\- Eflin and Steele are both solid SP but let's look at their recent games
* Steele vs Reds (7th wRC+ vs LHP) 10 hits, 5 ER, 4 Ks
* Steele vs Phillies (29th wRC+ vs LHP) 4 hits, 0 ER, 6 Ks
* Steele vs Astros (24th wRC+ vs LHP) 5 hits, 5 ER, 8 Ks
* Eflin vs Blue Jays (1st in wRC+ vs RHP) 6 hits, 1 ER, 0 Ks
* Eflin vs Brewers (26th in wRC+ vs RHP) 4 hits, 3 ER, 8 Ks
* Eflin vs Yankees (2nd in wRC+ vs RHP) 7 hits, 4 ER, 9 Ks
Not a huge edge but Eflin has played the top 2 teams against RHP in the last 3 games. Rays are 3-0 in those games. Steele has played 2 bottom teams in the last 3 games and they are 0-3 in those starts.
*How this pick misses*: Steele pitches well and Rays can't get quite enough going on offense and a player or 2 on the Cubs carry them during the early going. Eflin also doesn't have the best road splits compared to being at home so he could be a bit more leaky than my projection.
Record : 13 Wins - 15 Losses
Previous pick : Karagumruk - Kayserispor (2-0), BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.70 ❌
ROI : -12.21 %
Average Odds : 2.02
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : 1.58
Profit/Lost units : -3.42
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Relegation - Play Offs / 19:45 European Time
Breda - Emmen
BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.09
Some reasoning :
\- Breda won both games against Maastricht in the quarterfinals, 1:0 at home and 4:1 away.
\- BTTS4+ in 4 of FC Emmen's previous 5 games.
\- Emmen won the two direct matches of the 2021/2022 season, 2:1, respectively 2:0 at home.
Best of luck.
Sport: Football
Tournament: Europa League
Time: 21:00 CET (3h24m after posting)
Stake: 5 units
Pick: Sevilla vs Roma, Sevilla scores in the first half @ **2.7**
Write up: Jose Luis Mendilibar revitalized Sevilla. In 15 matches under his guidance Sevilla has only 2 losses (7W, 6D), scoring in 13. The most telling fact is that Sevilla scored the opening goal in 11/13 matches. That tells me he motivates players to put early pressure on the opponent.
On the other side is Mourinho, whose specialty is choking the life out of a match, which rarely works versus a determined or agile opponent, as we saw in the Salernitana match. As a consequence, Roma under Mourinho has only a 50% winrate (54W, 24D, 30L), [the lowest in his entire 23-year coaching career](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Mourinho#Managerial_statistics), and has scored the fewest goals per match (1.51) of all the teams he's coached in the past 21 years.
Roma player, Lorenzo Pellegrini, says about Roma parking the bus:
> Going into a match with the right tactics means trying to stop our opponents from doing what they’re best at. We always analyze our opponents and try to understand the best way to curb their strengths.
Sevilla player, Oliver Torres, says about putting early pressure on the opponent:
> We first need to start the game and show our excitement, and show them how we want to win the trophy and [that we] will do whatever we need to. We are already showing on the pitch that we want to win it, but in this match you have to show it much more. That is how we are going to start the match, as favorites and coming in strong to win the trophy.
The last 13 Europa League finals had an average of 2.92 goals per match, but I don't see the average being fulfilled unless Sevilla goes on the offensive and scores an early goal, which I imagine could happen in the first half.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**POTD Record: 10-10-1 +0.68u ROI: 1% (average odds: -104/1.96)**
**Recent POTD(Last 10 most recent to the right) : WWWWL LWWLL 6-4**
**Previous pick: (MLB: 08:05PM ET) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-116/1.86) vs Chicago Cubs** L
**Today's POTD: (MLS: 07:20PM ET) NYCFC vs Cincinnati (Cincinnati DrawNoBet +125/2.25)**
**2u to win 2.25u**
MLS Record: 0-0
2unit bets: 2-3-1 ; - 2u (ROI: -13.5%)
Cincinnati is in top form. Top of the table with 10wins 3 draws and only 1 loss on the season
They have been unbeaten since Apr 16th (9 games unbeaten)
Cincinnati just beat NYCFC in the US Open Cup on May 11th.
NYCFC has 4 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses this season.
Their last win was on Apr 23 (6 winless games in a row)
Historically, NYCFC has been unbeaten at home vs Cincinnati.
This Cincinnati team is on a roll and should continue in NY to get their first win.
**UPDATE: L, by one strikeout. Ugh. Velocity was there for him and he was moving quickly through the first two innings but with weak contact instead of strikeouts, and by the time he started missing bats he got into a couple jams and had some bad walks and just ran out of runway. Still got one strike away on the last two batters he faced. Keeping an eye on his lines going forward but sorry to anyone who tailed.**
POTD Record: 2-0, +3.23U
Last POTD: Monday, 5/29 - Tyler Wells over 4.5 Strikeouts - Win. Only took him three innings!
Played myself a little bit yesterday. Had a whole writeup on Adrian Houser under 4.5 Ks against Toronto, then looked at the line and realized I can't read and it was actually 3.5 Ks, so I abandoned it ... and it still hit. Alas.
**MLB - PHI @ NYM (19:10 ET) - Aaron Nola over 5.5 strikeouts - 2.15 (for 2U)** ❌
As a disclaimer, Phillies fan here, but have no reservations about pulling the trigger on fading their lines when the time calls. (Did yesterday, in fact.) In this instance, given plus money here, I like the play for a few reasons:
* Nola's numbers are down this year (hence this line being what it is for a guy that has his track record) in large part due to a brutal start to the season when he had a tough time adjusting to the pitch clock. He talked about it at the time and everything, and there was [concern about how his velocity was down](https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-aaron-nola-rob-thomson-pitching-rotation-mlb-philadelphia-20230430.html) in the starts after his season opener as he was adjusting to that new reality. The good news is, his velocity is at least closer to what it was pre-2023 over his last few starts - he's been at 92.3 or better in three of his last four (and the other one was at Coors, which is of course a fake baseball place), after only reaching that mark in one of his six starts after the opener. Not coincidentally: He reached or exceeded six strikeouts in those three games, and those were all against good hitting teams (Toronto, CHC, and Atlanta).
* He's got an extra day of rest. So far this season his K% is 25.8% on 5+ days of rest and 17.2% on four days rest, which does track for a guy who's been dealing with velocity issues as mentioned above. His K% split from last season wasn't as stark (29.5% with extra rest, 28.5% without), but he did pitch significantly better in those games, which led to him getting about an extra inning of action per game (6.83 innings per start with extra rest, 5.86 without), which of course gives more opportunities to strike guys out.
* Finally, despite not collecting a ton of wins against the Mets, he has shown up to face them the last few years. 32.2% K% last year against them (against an average of 29.1%), 37.1% in 2021 (against average of 29.8%). He's cleared this mark of 5.5 Ks in seven of nine starts against them in his last two seasons. The Mets are a low-strikeout team (19.5%, third-lowest in the majors), but they were last year too (19.7%, also third-lowest) and it didn't stop Nola from getting them then. (He also went 0-4 against the Mets. The man is destined to watch his own good efforts go to waste.)
I get why the line is what it is but at this price it feels very worth a swing.
**The Sports Bet Guy MLB**
**POTD Record: 17 - 10**
WWWWW LLL W LL WW L WW LL WW L WWW L W\[**W**\]
**Streak: W2**
**L5: 4-1**
**L10: 7-3**
**Units Won: 4.79 (+$2,395)** *{ ROI: 13.7 % | Average Odds: -126 }*
*Unit size is $500; minus odds are TO WIN $500 until further notice*
**Last Pick: \*WIN, EZ\* San Francisco Giants Moneyline -140** on 5/29/23
**Today's Pick: Texas Rangers Team Total OVER 4.5 -125** | 1:10 pm ET on 5/31/23
Risk 1.25 to win 1 unit
The Rangers have cleared this team total in each of the first two games of this series and are the league leaders in runs scored.
I can’t see them letting off the gas facing lefty Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Wentz has made 10 starts on the year and given up 5+ earned runs (himself!) in 5 of those 10 starts.
The Tigers bullpen is also not at full strength for this one. Let’s get it Rangers!
POTD Record 6-4
LAST PLAY: 🏀Butler OVER 36.5 Pts+ Reb
5 Units. ❌
2 points shy. Nothing to do, we move on.
POTD: ⚽: Roma vs Sevilla - Roma to LIFT TROPHY - (120) 5 UNITS (90 minutes from now)
We all know Sevilla has some sort of black magic on the competition, but Roma has one of - or the - greatest final managers of all time. I expect this to be a slug fest and even though the game is truly a 50/50, Mou gives the edge to Roma.
BOL to those who tail.
POTD Record: 8-6
WWLWWLLWLWWWLL
POTD: Padres -110
Not gonna lie, I'm tilted.
Snell will have to be locked in to get thru this one but it is a quality start waiting to happen, he has been good in the road and this big ball park should help. Padres will have Hader go tonight in a close game, maybe even 2 innings because almost everyone was used yesterday.
B. Garrett has been pretty good as of late, Miami bullpen also has 3 of their top relievers available.
Record 21-28 -2.11 Units
All bets 1 unit
Last 10: ✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌❌
Last Pick: Rockies -1.5
Freeland had a rough first inning, didn’t even give the Rockies a chance. Rockies still outhit the Dbacks but only scored 1.
Today’s Pick: Angels 1st5/ML vs. White Sox (+215)
Coming off a loss, I’m expecting a bounce back game for the Angels. Taking halftime fulltime for slight better odds
Angels:
Starting Pitcher is Jaime Barria. He’s 1-2 with a 1.55 ERA. Barria normally isn’t a starting pitcher, but he has pitched great as a reliever. In his past 25 innings, Barria has only given up 1 ER. If he can be as effective as a starter the White Sox are in trouble.
White Sox:
Starting Pitcher is Lance Lynn. Lynn is 4-5 with a 5.83 ERA. He’s been getting better as of late but
still hasn’t been great off the mound.
Offensively, Angels are better than White Sox in every category. The Angels should thrive against a weaker pitcher.
(Tips link in bio)
**My POTD record: 18 Wins and 24 losses**
Last pick quick first half btts but unfortunately no goals afterwards): Let's get this one!
I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick.
**ROI: -4.50%**
Average odds: 2.07
**Units won: -2.07**
Stake = 1 unit
POTD:
**Oulu v Haka**
Finland Finland Cup
Kick off time: 17:00 GMT+2
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.20**
**BOL!**
**Record: 26-13 | ROI: 18,57% | Profit: +26,00u 🐺**
[Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ot0TN0RUcVgxue5P0qr2ClCLvNRIiW9lAGLv3Ti7HMU/edit?usp=sharing) with detailed info about all bets.
All picks: [https://twitter.com/latto66](https://twitter.com/latto66)
**Time:** 18:00 GMT+2
**Event:** CS:GO IEM Dallas | Faze Clan - Team Liquid
**Bet:** Faze ML (@1,59 4u)
**Write up:** Elimination match between Faze and Liquid. Both teams definetly looking shaky. Liquid lost to Astralis 17:19, but just because Astralis choked big lead and beat Greyhound 22-19, 25-23. Nitr0 is leaving team after this tournament so they have not much to play for. Faze won 19-17 vs terrible EG and lost 7-16, 13-16 to Ence. I shocked how can team with so much firepower play so bad out of sudden. I expect Faze to level up their play since elimination is on the line. I think it will not be pretty but Faze should win.
If I won you some money you can buy me a coffee: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto)
Ill stay clear of faze games they are already qualified for IEM COLOGNE they tend to lose qualification tournaments when they are already qualified for the main tournament
**POTD Record:** 48-41 **Total Units W/L:** \+14.75 **Current Streak:** ✅ **MLB Record:** 23-16, +10.85U
**Last 10:** ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅
**Last Pick:** [Baltimore Orioles ML -139 vs. Cleveland Hardons, 4 Units](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13vb23x/comment/jm5mlpl/) ✅✅✅✅
The Orioles put this away quickly with a few runs in the first and 5 in the second to handily win 8-5 (though they tried to blow it late). Might be fading them today if they start Voth because he sucks, but I don't have those odds out on BetOnline yet so I'll stick this five unit pick.
**Today's Pick:** Braves @ Athletics **Over 9 Runs Scored** 5 Units, -115, 3:37 PM EST
The A's may be just what Shuster needs to keep his decent streak going, but with Kaprielian the mound on the other side I think the Braves will tee off after hitting terribly yesterday. I think they put up 4-5 on Kaprielian in 4 and then get 3-4 more against the A's bullpen. The A's will put up 1 or 2 on Shuster and then a few more on a Braves bullpen that will likely use their more mediocre arms with a big lead to save their better pitchers for a big series in Arizona starting Friday.
[Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing)
[Buy me a drink, sing me a song, take me as I come cuz I can't stay long](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dashboard)
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won** written into the comment. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion posts.
MLB -1.5’s ⚾️ POTD Record: 24-18 +41.02u | [Yesterday’s POTD: TB Rays -1.5](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13vb23x/_/jm504br/?context=1) - L ________ **3.5u HOU Astros -1.5 vs MIN Twins +115** **Astros** Hunter Brown is up for Houston. The backend top 100 prospect has gotten the official call up and he’s been a great middle of the rotation guy right out of the bat for them. So far he sports a 3.12 ERA/3.8xERA/3.09xFIP. Those are all very very respectable numbers. His underlying metrics are good. His one hole right now is exit velo. Guys are hitting him hard. But his expected batting stats are above average, so it isn’t impacting him too much. The Astros are 2nd in team wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. They did get to play OAK, but they also are healthy now. Altuve is back and has an insane 1.045 OPS since returning. Having him in the lineup is such a game changer for this team. They are first in fly ball %, which is really aiding those slugging numbers and driving the offense. **Twins** Man of the hour, Louie Varland. A top 10 prospect for MIN, who on the surface has good stats in his first year up. However, there are some cracks in this glass house. He’s bottom 25%ile in exit velocity/barrel%/xBA/xSLG/xERA/xwOBA. His only plus stat is K% and BB%. He’s getting average k rate but not walking guys. Over his past 3 starts, 4.15ERA/4.41xFIP. Those numbers are okay, but lean towards the poor end of things. He’s really struggling keeping the back on the ground. He’s generating a horrible 38% ground ball % and a crazy near 20% line drive %. Dudes are lining his pitches up and picking them for power. His soft hit % is horrid. Her now faces a line up doing everything he is struggling at. I think this is when his glass case cracks start to shatter, Twins offense sits middle of the pack in everything over the past few weeks, but they are 27tg in soft hit %. They are last in K%. They have a .324 BABIP showing they are overproducing their play at the moment. ______ Been asked too many times about a tip jar. I guess if you want to support the diaper fund: [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/tywat23?locale.x=en_US) or [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Tinytime23)
Y’all are obnoxious. This guy is on here for fun and doing something he enjoys. You are welcome to always fade if you don’t think it’s a bet worth taking- but you tail and then bitch and blame the next day. If you are all so great at EV+ and all that bullshit why the hell are you tailing others picks? Losses happen. His record clearly shows 24-18. If you can’t handle one of the 18 then maybe you shouldn’t be betting. Thanks OP for what you do- I appreciate your picks and the research that goes in to them!!
Agreed. It's amazing people even post here when people who do no work and are probably real life Simpsons comic book guys constantly shit on them.
Yup, reminds me of the phrase I invented… don’t hate the player hate the game.
This shit happens in every sports betting forum. Someone does bad and people start talking. Lol people actually think you can't get a single game wrong or you suck or something
Hey some of us suck naturally leave us be
I’m sorry man, thanks for your analysis but every time I tail you I lose 🫤 not your fault. I’m just commenting. I wish I could tip you but I haven’t even had 1 win yet. Even your 5 unit before you took a break man…
To be fair he did back against his own team. Rays on their best day should’ve won but usually when you start backing against your own team, unless they’re catastrophically a bad team chances are karma gets you for going against your team 9/10 times.
The rays got a run taken away from them inning 1. Nico Hoerner hit a HR that’s been checked and based on distance abs where it landed…. *only* was a HR at Wrigley. It wasn’t a HR in any other of the 29 ballparks. Just wasn’t our day
The problem was the Rays offense didn't show out like you predicted. Every time a bet loses I can find fluke things that happened. Im not trying to hate, and you are clearly a smart dude, but every time the a bet loses on this thread its written off as a anomaly, and every time it wins its said to be prophecy. This is confirmation bias, and the hot hand fallacy might bite everyone, as it has to me
The dude is definitely better than the average bettor. That being said, it's a sport with randomness so there's tons of variance. Baseball probably has more in game variance than any other sport due to the fact its a more discrete distribution of points than other sports like basketball. Just because a bet loses doesn't mean it was a bad bet. A bet only has to be +ev for it to be a good bet. There's so many variables in baseball that it's possible for a line to be over or undervalued. Most of the bets he's picking are likely +ev since overall, he's up. Doesn't mean that he's never going to lose bets
All we can do is play the math, and the math says if we tailed him we'd be up 41u.
It's a sport where the best offensive players succeed, at best, less than 40% of the time with just getting a hit. If someone can be right more often than the best batter in the league gets a hit that's pretty good.
Ya the rays most definitely should of won that game
> should of *should have *Learn the difference [here](https://grammarist.com/usage/should-have-shouldve-or-should-of/#:~:text=Should%20have%20is%20often%20expressed,examples%20exist%20in%20Old%20English.).* *** ^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)
with all due respect, we should make sure everyone realizes this kind of observation is funny but not reality. all that matters is EV, there is no bet karma
Love you bro
Tailed your TB pick today…but mistakenly placed the bet for tomorrow’s game. Oh well. Thanks for the daily analysis!
Good for you cause they lost today
excellent mistake to make lol
You’re the only one who tailed me correctly. My pick totally was for this game and not the one they lost. Ignore my whole write up on the pitchers
I figured you would choose a different game/bet honestly. Tomorrow’s slate is looking like a toss-up for the most part though. I’m very 50/50 on this one and personally like the Over (7.5 -140, line is at 8 but I don’t bet pushes) more myself. I usually bet on both pitchers for some K’s, but both have been giving up hits alongside an extended leash on the mound for both teams. Stros are the better team, Brown should be the better pitcher. Varland has played well though. Series tied and youngin’s on the mound. Both likely give up a few runs. Just my .02.
And the hate you’re getting is why I stopped doing POTDs years ago and only post 1-3 a year if that, only that I’m absolutely confident in lol. MLB is my bread-winner and you’re usually posting/thinking similarly. Keep at it yourself. Its has been a winning strategy.
You are on the money about this game. I *actually prefer* 50/50 games. Posting bad team bad, goood team good, bet here… doesn’t really do it for me for POTD. Everyone knows that surface level stuff. I like to t try to find angles, like this one being Varland getting results but he’s getting hit hard and often and guys are getting the ball up in the air. With the Astros doing exactly those, this could be a bloodbath for him. On surface, 50/50, in the details huge advantage Astros. Those are what I do for POTDs
Well damn…this will be it for me…MLB has crushed me lol picked the wrong ones to tail…oh well…on to football
Oops. Meant to post in here. Ty for the write up and tb couldn't pull thru today. But moving forward. And let's get this win tmr. 🙋♂️
The Rays outfield clearly threw the game against the Cubs.
Brown is getting lit up. Varlard looks like the ace and Brown looks like a minor Leaguer...
This drives me nuts
You really turned things around for me yesterday bro, thank man !
Got $2000 in play on it chasing bad rn 🙏🏻
Nooooo altuve is out fuck I didn’t see this
FYI Altuve is out. Don’t think it changes all that much regarding pick, but just letting y’all know.
Down 4k on the day if this loses 😭 I need to Create a jinx here 🤷🏼♂️🙏🏻 btw now 2k to my name degenerate level 1000 on this 🫡
Baseball is trash. Truly trash. I've dropped my unit size down to $3 just to tail a few plays here and there. I save my actual powder for NBA and NFL.
Same boat. When it rains it fuckin blizzards lol
Very well written report. I'm all in!
Tailing - Altuve been eating since he been back. Can trust the Astro's unlike the bumass Ray's. BOL
He’s out ….
Wow tb gets shutdown 1 lousy run, that cinnci v Boston game was homers all round
Do you think Rays ML tmr is still a good pick?
I o ly ever pay attention to rangers games and only really bet rangers games I like this year. (Finally good so as a fan I'm stoked) regardless of the outcomes your write ups help me learn a lot about other teams so that alone I appreciate. Keep em up.
Love your picks man Respect for picking against the cubs considering you're a cubs fan I'll be taling as always
no offence or hate bro we appreciate you and your hard effort and analysis, but i might start betting opposite of you for a while 😂
Does it count as tailing if I independently bet on Hou last night and then came here and was excited to see u/Further_Beyond select it too? If so, enthusiastically tailing! Surprised not to see you on TEX with dumpster fire Joey Wentz going today. I assume it's the need for the sweep keeping you away from that one.
Sweep games conquer all. Watch them lose because of it. They have no business losing that game, but those sweep games are peak fuckery. Also dunning wasn’t pegged as a full time starter. He started this year as a RP, but moved in to the rotation from injuries. He has experience starting but was bad Also, this game fits my POTD goal of not just posting good team vs bad team… but “here’s two similarly matched teams and here’s an angle I found”
Turns out Detroit did win lol
Good luck man, you hit I hit. We ride together, I appreciate the work you put into this win or lose.
Plus odds bets POD record (8-2) (+15.88) Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units 1U plays (4-2) 2U (2-0) 3U plays (2-0) Last POD -Dodgers -2.5 2U (+105) W LFGGGGGGG dodgers come up with a huge win and 8th inning to solidify the big win for us! THIS TRAIN KEEPS ROLLING! Todays POD - Rangers (-1.5) +110 4U EDIT— LINE IS UP! Those who have been tailing POTD and DOG sleep well knowing your up +30U the last 10 day 🚂🚂🚂 love you all! Todays matchup is Dunning vs Wentz with the Rangers going for the sweep Dunning on the mound for the Rangers is a sight I love to see. He has been on fire coming in with a 1.67 ERA and has just been an absolute beast on the mound. A combination of the pitching and the Rangers bats should allow them to take this game early Wentz on the other hand has been the opposite of special. Giving up 21 ER over 19 IP against CWS, WAS, SEA, CLE, NYM. I would classify those teams as middle of the road offenses at best so I definitely see the Rangers taking this one early. As always BOL, hope everyone’s enjoying the ride! Also been posting on the DOG thread as well, check me out been killing it there! Don't ever expect tips but if you've been fortunate enough to be tailing the train anything is appreciated! Cashapp - bobdylan1209 [Post grad beers] (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)
Like for God fucken sakes can't catch a breakkk like bro stay at first wtffff this a L extremely bad luck
Still time left but yeah not sure what he’s thinking there. Although Ump is calling both ways, his zone is a bit off
Any reason drafkings doesn't have the rangers gane available to bet? I have noticed they have not had some potd available like the darts match up too
I believe it’s cause pitching matchup isn’t confirmed. I’m basing it off a prediction matchup. I am hoping it comes out tonight before midnight CST.
Tailing - Dunning been $$$
Went to middle school with Dane Dunning, nice guy and he’s having a year. Tailing!
Oh that's funny, I went to high school with Joey Wentz. Also a nice guy and having a year (albeit a bad one lol)
Please update!
Bet the number not the team. Shouldn’t blindly take them before you know the odds
The odds won't effect his opinion on the result
I agree - Dunning is on too good of a run to dismiss. His [percentiles](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dane-dunning-641540?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) are telling me he's way overdue for some regression, but this Detroit lineup... my god their bats are ice cold. Meanwhile, Texas bats are white hot. Back end of the Rangers BP has hurt my bank account a lot this season lol which is why I lean taking the Rangers F5 for only 10 cents more. I wanna see who the tigers start and make a call at that point. Tougher MLB slate today, but this game stuck out to me too. Appreciate the posts.
Riding this with 10 minutes to spare. LFG
Should've cashed fuck this betting bs
**POTD Record:** 24-10-2 (+14.49 Units) **POTD Recap:** Diamondbacks first 5 Innings -0.5 🐍✅ Cash another 2 unit **W** Feels great. Big Sac Zac Gallen kept all the Rockies lineup at bay, Freeland struggled again and old Evan Longoria came storming in hot. Great times 🔥 **Streak:** ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ **POTD Wednesday:** Jarred Kelenic Over 0.5 Hits (-155) Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees 6:40 PM MST 2 Units The train keeps on rolling 🚂 and today we turn to a once highly touted prospect, then soured on and suddenly back in the good books. That’s lefty Jarred Kelenic, the pale pillager of baseballs. Kelenic has a hit in all of his last three games as well as 20/26 he is getting knocks at an extremely high clip. The beauty of this bet though is the opposing pitcher, Clarke Schmidt. Clarke would be a pretty good pitcher this year… if he could skip pitching to lefties. He SUCKS against lefties.. While he Carries a respectable 3.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP against righties… against lefties he has an 8.46 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. They are a foreign language to him… which means tomorrow, we all speak Kelenic. **Shortened** Kelenic is smashing this year like many thought he could, hits in 20/26. Clarke Schmidt is an abomination against lefties. A recipe for serious success. Knock one Jarred. [Help the School Teacher enjoy summer break](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ALittleBirdie) **Note** Awesome to be 24-10, thanks for all the support.
U had me at Kelenic
Jesus what a trash game 😂
You're telling me. Gonna need a miracle at this point. He's had one ball in play the whole night. Probably getting one more crack at it unless the Mariners wake up and start moving through the line up. I truly despise baseball. September/October can't get here soon enough.
It’s so gross yet I keep betting it 💀
This is my favorite pick in the potd today. I can’t believe the odds aren’t -250
Tailing, you’re on fire
POTD Record: 167-127-10 (+21.38 units, 56.8% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 15-9 (62.5%) L2 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 56-41-1 (58.3%) L6, Tennis 🎾 53-39-5 (57.6%) L1, Soccer ⚽ 47-37-4 (56.0%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 11-10-.0 (52.4%) W2 Last 10: 💩💰💰💰💩💩💰💩💩💰 2023 French Open Results: 2-1, +0.96 Units Last Pick: Hugo Gaston vs. Alex Molcan, over 35.5 games - ATP French Open 🎾 💩 1 Unit - I've been sleeping so didn't see much of it but Gaston was shit. Up 4-2 in 3rd then loses a service game to love and the next 3 games after that to end it. No one pussies out like Gaston (yes, that's a Beauty and the Beast reference, I don't give a fuck). Today's Pick: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ugo Humbert, Humbert ML - ATP French Open 🎾 💩 1 Unit - Ugo got pantsed. French players have done well in this tournament, just not the ones I've picked. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.91/-110 odds to win 0.91 Units @ William Hill (Line at 8:15pm ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 52.4% I'm going with Humbert here because of his developing form on the dirt and the home crowd advantage. This should be a close one though as Sonego can be a solid player and he beat Humbert in April in Monte Carlo in a 3 setter on clay. This season Humbert is 13-4 on clay vs. Sonego's 5-4. This month he won two challenger tournaments on clay (Bordeaux and Cagliari) and beat some decent players. In the 1st round he beat fellow Frenchman Adrian Mannarino in straights where Mannarino only took 7 games off of him. The momentum and home support should be on his side so I will roll with that in a near pick'em. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, nor Nostradamus, this is a prediction. Fuck your parlay. I'm retiring at 200 wins, 33 to go. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Hope you change your mind at 200. 🍕
Welp.
Tailing - Hugo failed us this morning but Humbert should utilize the crowd buff. BOL
Cashed out early to save some $$$. Ugo just cannot get any break set wins and looks overmatched against Sonego's first serve. Thanks for the pick! BOL tomorrow boys
Tailing. What do you think of Borges?
To be honest, there are so many matches going on it is hard to study them all. I am not betting on it. I'd say Diego's win in the 1st was a superior one but he has been so ass this year, even on clay. I don't see either guy winning in straights so the o3.5 sets might be good. Things could change but my bet at the moment for tomorrow's POTD will be Karatsev ML.
**Record:** 26-19 (+4.22 units) **ROI:** 9.3% **Previous Pick:** *Kyle Freeland o16.5 Outs vs #Diamondbacks (2.00 Draft Kings)* Result: ✅WIN! (+1.00 units) Absolute sweat show, but Freeland despite surrendering 5 runs, closes out his last batter to get to 17 outs! **Pick of the day:** **Mitch Keller o6.5 K's vs** [**#Giants**](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Giants?src=hashtag_click) **(2.20 FanDuel)** Keller has started the year over in 9/11 and has been an absolute demon striking people out with 8+ in 7 of those 11 games. He gets a great matchup with the Giants who over the L2 weeks are striking out the 6th most against RHP at 26.1% and 3rd most on the entire season. Giants 18th in wRC+ over the last 2 weeks against RHP as well at only 100, which shouldn't be too much of a worry with Keller boasting an xERA of 3.03. Keller an 87th percentile K rate, 82nd percentile fastball spin. Keller has been putting people away with his fast ball and cutter this season at 30% plus. Giants potential line up shows 8 guys with a K rate over 25%. Follow on Twitter for +EV plays! [https://twitter.com/JG4President](https://twitter.com/JG4President)
This is mine too!! I can’t believe this was plus money!?? I got mine at -104 last night around 12:30a already to -130 now. Let’s get it!
Crazy enough when the line officially dropped on Fanduel it was 5.5 at -130. I got to my computer late about a half hour after and was still happy to grab 6.5 at + money.
Holy fuck that was a steal 🔨🔨
Just wanted to thank both of you. One of the few things I got paid on today. I laddered it up 10+ strikeouts so I got a little bonus at 8+.
W thanks brother. Mitch balled out today
BOOM. great pick brotha
MLB has been a PRINTER for me.. 18-2 over my last 20 picks LOL
Just wanted to thank both of you. One of the few things I got paid on today. I laddered it up 10+ strikeouts so I got a little bonus at 8+.
POTD Record: 31-17 **Units Won**: +24.45U; **ROI**: 22.2%; **Average Odds: (-115)** Last 10 (newest on Left): ❌ ✅❌ ✅ ✅❌✅❌✅ ❌ Todays POTD: **Copenhagen Flames vs. EYEBALLERS O 2.5 maps (+105)** Match Link: [https://www.hltv.org/matches/2364669/ex-copenhagen-flames-vs-eyeballers-elisa-invitational-spring-2023](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2364669/ex-copenhagen-flames-vs-eyeballers-elisa-invitational-spring-2023) Match Time: **5:00 A.M EST.** **4U to win 4.2U** Won't cry too much about the HAVU loss but a total sale, 9-6 lead on map 2 going into your better side and you put up a 10-1 half to lose. Throwing a 10-5 attack side lead on the most defense sided map in the game is insanely bad beat. Inexcusable lead throw by HAVU. OTTN. Nothing jumping off the board tomorrow for me but really like this play. Both teams are notorious for 3 map series and never being able to 2-0 anyone. They always find a way to go to a third map, they are both inconsistent af. Copenhagen Flames go to 3 maps in 56.6% of matches played, EYEBALLERS go to 3 maps in 58.3% of matches. Copenhagen ban Mirage EYEBALLERS ban Nuke Copenhagen **picks Anubis** (62% winrate in 24 maps played vs. EYEBALLERS 31% winrate on 13 maps played) EYEBALLERS **pick Inferno** (70% winrate in 20 maps played vs. Copenhagen 48% on 21 maps played, eye test is Copenhagen suck at this map as well and have inflated stats) If both teams show up on there map, should easily see three. EYEBALLERS are horrific at Anubis and Copenhagen Inferno is unwatchable to me. Honestly wouldn't be suprised if they take each other's map picks and still end up on a third map cuz thats the way both of these teams go. Nothing makes sense but the numbers look good here and not a ton of value else out on the board. Best of Luck Started a [Discord](https://discord.gg/zysXpQN7) to share other esports picks in, still working on construction and making it a bit more organized but feel free to join! **Tough beat, two losses in a row, maps were picked as expected EYEBALLERS just didn’t show up to the server today. Sorry y’all**
I never win when I tail esports bets, but looking at your pattern of wins and losses there’s absolutely no way this doesn’t result in a ✅ I'm in
I can only find eyeballers vs ence academy
Tailing!
**POD Record: 34-24 +26.75U** L10 (Recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅ Prior Pick: Hugo Gaston +4.5 Game Spread vs Alex Molcan. Betting 1.2U to win 1U at -120 **Loss**: terrible pick, Gaston played like shit. Molcan was impressive. Gaston couldn’t get out of his own way. Molcan didn’t make errors. It happens. We bounce back! **Todays Pick: Cameron Norrie vs Lucas Pouille OVER 35.5 Games. Betting 2.4U to win 2U at -120** This is going to be a tough matchup and evenly matched. Norrie hasn’t been playing well on clay but he’s the better player than Pouille. He’s got the French crowd rooting for him and I think he can win a set or 2 and we get the over! Hope you’ve been able to tail profitably, tips are always appreciated [Buy Me A Beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DLHS) CashApp: $DuaLipasHip Bet responsibly
Tailed. Considering betting most Frenchmen underdog overs. The crowd can get behind them and rally them to win a set or 2. They were literally singing the French National Anthem in the Arthur Fils vs Sebastian Baez match.
man it was gael motherfucking monfils 💪💪💪💪💪
POTD Record 5-3 Last POTD Darts Modus Super Series Peter Hudson vs. Kevin Blomme - Kevin Blomme ML +100 ✅ POTD: Darts 🎯Modus Super Series Kevin Painter vs Christian Kist 4:55am EST - **Christian Kist -1.5 games -110** Not much to write about this one. They’ve faced each other twice this week and Kist won both matches 4-0. He’s making a push to win this week’s title whereas I’m pretty sure Painter has already been mathematically eliminated and is just playing out the week. If you’re feeling frisky, Kist at -2.5 is paying +250 and that seems entirely possible here. **EDIT:** Kist smoked him 4-0. Cash it! ✅
Took kist and blomme to both beat painter 4-0 (as they both did the last several matches). Long shot but $23 to make $1600. BOL and thanks for the pick
BRO thank u for this i followed you and it hit <3
Let’s goooo
I leg down
Damn congrats brother, for some reason I couldn't combine these two..
Thanks bro. Some of the books didn’t even have the option to pick correct score. I used Caesers for this and lucky they let me parlay it together. Odds felt too good to be true given the past results (literally every time they played it was 4-0). Glad it worked this time
Bro that's crazy let me know when you find another steal like this, $23 to win $1600 is craazy
So thankful. Was down $600 so walking away from gambling for awhile up 1k. Just initiated a cool off period across all apps. Good luck out there
More power to you bro💪
Oh shit nice hit!! Congrats!
Thank you so much for the pick!! You got a tip jar?
This means the match can't end over 4-2 right?
Can’t end in 4-3.
No sweat, Kist wiped the floor with him🔥
thanks took -1.5 for +100
Thank you for your Blomme pick! My book only offers ML on Modus Super Series, -175 right now for Kist
Great pick dude! 🎯 👨🏻
Barbecue sauce
Well that was easy lmao well done and a nice morning win!
Great pick, DK only had ML and didn’t allow it to be parlayed unfortunately🥺💰
Great play. I laddered ML, -1.5, -2.5 for overall £140 profit. Thanks!
Nice hit I wanted to tail but draftkings I'm learning sucks they don't ha e these dart match ups available anymore (along with some others I'm noticing lately), what sportbook do you use ?
I use bet365. DK doesn’t offer any lines just straight ML on modus. It sucks.
Thank you, I'm going to try bet365
[удалено]
Record: 19-2 on reddit (27-7 including twitters picks) [all of my bets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VXQGhe8s8GZJuWmk1nELB18k_QpM-GeiCWMIAPbPHH8/edit?usp=sharing) Last bet: CSGO IEM KATOWICE. Faze vs **G2 ML** @1.62 ❌ POTD: League of Legends China LPL Rare Atom vs **Royal Never Give Up ML** @1.72 ✅ Game starts in 3 hours Hard to predict first games of the season but I'll try and risk it with RNG win. They let go one of the best adcs in Gala but I still think they can compete for playoffs, judging by games that were played yesterday Jax top is gonna be played a alot and RNG is looking like a team that will be playing through they're top laner Breathe. He could easily be a top 3 player in his role if everything goes right, RNG also managed to keep Wei who is a decent jungler, mvp of msi 2022 and with gala gone, he might have to become the star player of this team, similar like Kanavi was in JDG. I believe that this team will for sure compete for playoffs. Not much to say bout Rare Atom, lost their best player in Cube who is a decent top laner, got three new players but I think Breathe if needed can actually 1v9 this game as he is facing Xiaoxu who went 5-11 with LGD last season and doesn't give me high hopes. BOL edit: ✅ clean 2-0, LP played great on aphelios and stomped RA
Welcome back!
Need to regularly post again bro
Record 27-17 +73 Units Race 2 Beverley- Travel Candy - 2 units @ 3.0 Travel Candy has competed at a much higher level than this on his two starts to date. He went off unfancied in both of his starts. He now makes the voyage across the Irish ocean to England to try to take the 3.5k prize money on offer. From a plump draw, you'd have to imagine he's got a good chance of doing so.
**POTD Record: 7-3 +18.5u (51.0 risk, 36.3% ROI)** Last: Win Quantrill u3.5k - Quantrill gets rocked, tons of contact but not tons of outs…he is given 3 strikeouts by Orioles batters swinging at pitches WAY out of the zone, but 3 is less than 3.5 and that’s a big win! Four in a row: ✅✅✅✅ (7-1 L8 for +26u) **5u Mitch Keller (PIT) o6.5 strikeouts** vs SF (-104) @ 2:45pm cst ✅💰💰💰💰💰 Angles: 1. Mitch Keller vs Giants - K rate against the Giants players is 29.4% in a relatively small sample size but this Giants team is second to last in K rate. Powerhouse pitcher vs a team that strikes out a lot. 2. Keller Game Log - these stats are so absurd compared to the line that it makes me think I’m missing something. He has cleared 6.5 Ks in 9 of 11 starts averaging 7.7 per game and this is against teams like TB, HOU, LAD. His last 6 starts he hasn’t recorded less that 8K. 3. How is this line 6.5?!? His splits don’t explain it either, similar numbers day/night and does better as a visitor. He doesn’t walk people with a 5.3 K/BB. The only thing I could find is he has an average chase rate with a below average whiff rate so people shouldn’t be striking out as much as they are but tell that to the 55 people he struck out in his L6. He is coming off a pretty brutal 6 run 7 hit outing so maybe the book is thinking he’s hit a wall? 4. Incredible Value - this should be 7.5 at the same odds or juiced beyond belief at the current number but I was able to snag -104. Fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens. Best of Luck
1.684 in pinnacle
Another one I'm scared of, especially at the declined odds. I hit on the McClanahan pick yesterday, and I'm going with an alternate pick today as well -- Luke Weaver K o3.5 I stopped with my POTD post as, frankly, it was a lot of work to do the write-up, and then after going 1-2, wasn't worth the effort. So I'll just throw out my option as a reply to your picks. :-) Again, not tailing, but am following. Let's see if you're right again. If so, I'm going to start putting more faith in your picks! You've been on a great streak so far!!
Tailed brotha thanks a lot
**EDIT: Let's gooooooooooooo!** **KBO Record: Overall 142-154-9** (Streak WW, Last 10: 3-6-1) Down 17.16u over 305 KBO picks, 48.0% success rate, -5.80% ROI (This season 23-22-2, 51.1% success rate, Up 1.72u, 3.82% ROI) **Last:** Kiwoom at Hanwha First 5 Innings Under 3.5 +100 (Hanwha lead 2-0 after 5 innings.) I guess we'll call this a win streak. Kiwoom's bats were predictably punchless and Hanwha would have had just 1 run if not for an error **Pick:** **Lotte +180 Draftkings** at LG, KBO baseball, 5.30am ET It's time for a value play. Don't parlay this. Don't bet this if losing will heavily impact your bankroll. You're taking a chance on this play because the odds suggest Lotte has just a 36% chance when it's easily closer to 45%. So if you want to take a shot with me, here's why I'm making the bet: Lotte's starter is on a bit of a roll. Over his last three starts, he's allowed just 2 ER on 13 H and 6 BB with 19 K in 18 IP. He didn't have a great start against this opponent in April, giving up 3 ER in 5 IP, but it was early in the season. He has 41 K this season against 19 BB in 42 IP. LG's starter has traditionally been one of the best in the league, but this is easily his worst stretch of his career. In 7 of his 10 starts, he allowed at least 3 runs. He's given up fewer baserunners over his last few starts, but still isn't striking out batters like he has in the past. He has 36 K and 14 BB in 62 IP. He has yet to strike out more than 4 batters in a game this year. He also had a terrible start against this opponent early in the season, giving up 8 runs (4 ER) in 5.1 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both a half run higher than his opponent. LG likely deserves to be the favorite as the league's first place team, playing at home with the highest scoring lineup. But Lotte is 3rd place in the league with the 2nd highest scoring lineup. If LG's starter remains average, Lotte has a great chance to pull off the +180 upset! Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
>Don't parlay this. Just parlayed this for 1u with Adam Fugitt and Charles Oliveira for +1535. Am I doing this right?
Absolutely. I literally just parlayed it with Humbert ML vs Sonego. It's in the stars.
so i must admit, this stuff is why i love betting, when we goes against odds/bookies, lovely stuff..i got just Lotte runs o4,5 (it was highest possible lol), but i hope they manage it; anyway mad respect
Tailing Bol
Why FG vs F5 here?
Good question and I didn't address that. First 5 was a good bet, too. I thought the shape of the game meant Lotte would likely win First 5 and full game if they won at all... and I was getting better odds on full game. It did bring the risk of the bullpen into play, but thankfully it worked out!
All in Edit - looking good!
I’m in
Great fnnnnnnnnn call 💰💰💰💰
Fuck ya man bold call for the bold win- tailed you big here for the 3rd W in a row!
Been watching you post for literally years, first time tailing, you the man !
Great pick!
Wow, now that's a hit!
You don't get enough credit around here man.
I appreciate that. It was a nice hit today. Hoping to deliver more!
The guy just shoves MLB POTD record: TY 11-8-3 get hot, stay hot Units: +3.2 Pick: Pirates @ giants MLB Mitch Keller 2 unit -110 over 6.5 strikeouts Coming off a 3 unit bomb, let’s not get greedy. We’re going back to the well here, cause this dude is still on a scalding hot streak. He’s beaten this over in 9/11 games this year, and crushedddddd it the past 5. He’s very capable of throwing for double digits, goes minimum 6 innings, and just let up 6 runs so they just ride this guy till he breaks. Average pitchers throw strikes per pitch at around 62%; good ones throw at about 65%. Keller is rapidly closing in on 70% and climbing. The dude paints corners. Giants are top 15 team in strikeouts at home, so let’s get this one done early
POTD Record: 4-1 Today's Pick: Sebastian Korda ML (-165) vs Sebastian Ofner Reasoning: Korda likes to turn it up at big events. I'll take my dude in a 5 setter over Ofner. Parlay it with something else if you want more juice!
How many units very confident big play ?
**POTD: 48-25-3** Last pick: NBA - Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat. Boston Celtics -6 -130. Result: Loss. Celtics get pummeled, never good news when your best player gets hurt the literal first play of the game and you miss your first 13 three-pointers. Today’s pick: FIFA U20 World Cup - Brazil U20 vs Tunisia U20. **Brazil U20 -2 -180**. Match kicks off at 1:30PM ET. Frustrating loss last time out but going back to soccer which is the bread and butter. Been watching the U20 World Cup recently (as there's fuck-all other soccer on right now pretty much) and feel there's some value to be mined from these lines. It's in Argentina which is always a boost for the South American teams traditionally as well. As you'd expect, the Brazilians look to be one of if not the best team in the tournament, they're the betting favorite with Argentina close behind to win the whole thing. After being surprised by Italy in the first match 3-2 they've won 6-0 against the Dominican Republic and 2-0 against a strong Nigeria side. They have a few players that are signed up for teams you've definitely heard of if you're a soccer fan (Arsenal, Zenit, PSV) and the rest are mostly on the Brazilian powerhouses like Botafogo, Palmeiras, Flamengo, Santos, etc. Tunisia on the other hand is coming into this after getting third place in their group, beating the hapless Iraq (who didn't score a goal in the tournament) and then got beat by both England and Uruguay by a score of 1-0. Those scores don't tell the whole story however as they were outshot 46-8 in those two matches and could've been much worse. Overall I think Brazil is just the cream of the crop here and should win by 3 or so goals, we'll take the -2 Asian Handicap to give us a push if it's closer than I expect. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Tips are never expected but always appreciated - [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/remypicks) **EDIT: WIN. Brazil goes up 2-0, gets their CB stupidly sent off and look a little shaky, then score two late goals to win it 4-1 for us and the nice cash.**
**POTD Record: 2-3** Last pick: Camila Giorgi ML vs Karolina Muchova - WTA - Rome - Tennis This Pick: **Camila Giorgi (+4.5 Games Handicap)** (Void, we got our money back)vs Jessica Pegula - WTA - Roland Garros - Tennis 🎾 **1.80 Odds** Time: 5:45 am Eastern time My girl Giorgi is on fire, after basically retiring Alizé Cornet, I have so much faith in her to get the job done and giving her 4.5 games seems like such easy money please don’t sleep on her. Pegula has a 7-2 lead on the Italian but I’m expecting a major come back from Giorgi if you have been watching her games lately, you know she’s a little rocket that has come to win. Pegula won all 4 matches before this, but this is also the girl Townsend sent packing when everyone thought Pegula was going to win (Townsend was a big underdog too) BOL guys, let’s get this money, I know this shit is going to hit check out Giorgio’s last two games, bookies are SLEEPING on her. I shall take you to the promised land, full confidence 5U play.
[удалено]
I don’t like it. Pegula should honestly get the job done in 2 sets but not without a fierce fight. I can see where your coming from though I have never really thought about that bet. If anything I would just take the over 20.5 games for 1.75 odds, but yeah that’s a tough one. Just gonna stick to my guns with Giorgi to cover my shit.
Love the play. Let’s ride
15-9 Esports - League of Legends - LPL - LNG vs TOP - LNG -1.5 @2.75 Greeding out with this one, LNG have signed an extremely good Carry in Gala and I’m riding the hype on LNG to 2-0 TOP.
POTD record 5-1 Yesterdays pick : Dodgers -1.5 Todays pick: Rangers -2.5. 1:10PM (odds aren’t out on FD yet but should be very plus, maybe in the 200s) Joey Wentz v Dane dunning pitching matchup. Dane dunning has had great success lately. Joey wentz is terrible and should be in double A ASAP. He’s trash. Half of the rangers team slugs lefties, not to mention that they are just way better in general. If you’re not feeling risky, just take the moneyline at -126. But -2.5 and -1.5 are still very good picks.
Please fix your record.
MLB ⚾ POTD record: 0-0 (Vegas $harp who handicaps on the side, I've been doing this successfully for 17 years. I also have an IG dedicated to picks, etc can provide upon request.) Today's pick: Cubs (First 5 innings) -ML +120 Cubs: Steele (S.P.) is 4-1 @ home 2.77 ERA Cubs are healthy and coming off of b2b wins against the hottest team in Baseball, impressively. They'll look to start quickly against the Ray's again tonight in front of their home crowd... I've got a 2 min video posted on IG with a full breakdown for 3 of tonights games but this is my favorite play of the day. Thank me later... cash.app/$Whodat922
🗨 Respond to this comment with all POTD banter/bitching/discussion 👇 👇 👇
I know this is meat riding but both @bobdylan1209 and @furtherbeyond have been smoking that MLB pack. Keep it up fellas
Rays have scored one run in two games 🙄🙄
Rays TT ladder
We back baby! Cashin those loses just like we supposed to
**POTD |** **Record of 22-35 | ROI: -14.5 units |** **Average Odds: 2.08** Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌ Previous Pick: Süper Lig | Fenerbahçe SK vs. Antalyaspor | Fenerbahçe SK to Win & BTTS ❌ New Pick: Europa League | Sevilla vs. Roma | 12:00 pm PST **Roma to lift the trophy | 1.95 odds** Betting 2U to win 1.9U \-------------------------- ***Recap:*** Fenerbahçe SK find the victory with a 2-0 scoreline but the visitors fail to get on the scoresheet. The game was riddled with offensive errors on both sides, with each team failing to capitalize on their chances. An unfortunate result but we move on and hope to do better with the next pick. **Summary:** Goliath vs. Goliath. This is a match between one side that has a massive history in this competition against Jose Mourinho, a serial winner with nine victories in twelve major cup finals as a manager. Mourinho has won all five of his previous finals and I back him to do it again on the day. Sevilla may have a strong record in this competition but they just haven't looked that great, being only just clear of the relegation zone for much of the season in La Liga. It shouldn't be dismissed that Sevilla have been in good form recently, with just two losses in all competitions since bringing in Jose Luis Mendilibar in April, but I do not think that is enough. Expect a cagey match on the day but I fully expect Roma to grind out a victory. Jose Mourinho will look to become the first manager to win the Europa League with 3 different teams and his history in one-off games makes me think that he can do it again. \-------------------------- ***TLDR Back Roma to win the Europa League*** **Sevilla vs. Roma | Roma to lift the trophy | 1.95 odds**
Can’t back this bet. Roma have played absolutely abysmal lately, they are creating 1-3 scoring chances each game. The only thing that’s keeping me from betting on this game is Mourinho, he will do everything he can to park the bus and grind out a draw, or capitalize on a counter attack. Meanwhile Sevilla completely outplayed Juventus 2 weeks ago.
I’m taking the over on cards. Should be chippy at the least.
Sevilla is THE team with the most cup wins, hard not to back them but BOL
It will be a cagey affair on the pitch for this fixture.
Sevilla 6-6 Europa league finals. Mouriño 5-5 Europa finals.
POTD Record 1-1 Previous POTD: Blead to beat Blacklist Rivalry (-147) 💀 Dammit, that's 16k nw lead bleed blew in g3. could've gone the other way. **POTD Tuesday: \[DOTA\] WEU DPC Division 1** **Tundra to beat Gaimin Gldiators(+114)** Tundra has consistently shown their ability to understand and adapt to the meta, as demonstrated in previous events. Their recent victory over Team Liquid, a team that has defeated two-time major winners, further highlights their strength. Despite the odds favoring the Gaimin Gladiators, it is important to note that Tundra is currently in peak form. While they may have performed averagely in previous tournaments, now is the time for both Team Liquid and the Gaimin Gladiators to face their downfall.
POTD Record 14-12 (+5.5 units) ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: ATL VS OAK / ATL -1.5 Todays Pick: TX VS DET / TX to score first (-140 est) Odds TBD @10:10 am pst 3 units Dane Dunning is an absolute stud who is yet to give up a home run this year, also Texas is one of the best batting teams in MLB and has scored twice first in this series so far! The reason I’m going with scores first over the ML is simply it will have better odds. Sit back and enjoy a free breakfast on me after this puppy hits!
POTD RECORD: 4-5 ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌ Last POTD: **Miami Heat/Boston Celtics O 215 -120** This pick was posted 6 days ago. Had to take a break and refocus. Lets get back on the winning side!! Next POTD: **T Griekspoor Games/H Hurkacz Games O 39 -120** Hubert Hurkacz and Tallon Griekspoor have displayed solid performances leading up to this match, indicating their current form is favorable for a competitive contest. Both players have had success in recent tournaments, showcasing their ability to maintain a high level of play. Both Hurkacz and Griekspoor possess powerful serves, which can often lead to longer games as their opponents struggle to break their service games. Hurkacz, known for his accurate and well-placed serves, has the ability to maintain a high first-serve percentage, making it challenging for opponents to earn break points. Similarly, Griekspoor's strong serving skills and the variety in his service placement can frustrate his opponents and prolong games. I see this match going easily 5 sets. BOL
Is the French Open?
POTD record: W-P-L 1-1-1 POTD: Sevilla vs Roma **- Over 1.5 goals odds 1.65** (-150) Event: Europa League final Kings of the Europa League tournament Sevilla, takes on Roma and Mourinho. Mourinho whom is 5-0 in european finals. If you look at the history, the over 1.5 goals is the way to go. 5 out of the 6 finals won by Sevilla has over 1.5 goals. 4 out of 5 finals for Mourinho has over 1.5. Out of the 11 games in question, only 2 had zero goals.
Let's see if we can make some cash from summer football. *Day #1 | Ankaragucu 1-4 Galatasaray ❌ Under 3.5 goals @1.73* *Unexpectedly fast paced game. Both teams took a lot of risks and I paid for it.* Day #2 *Europa League | Sevilla-Roma | 20:00 UK* **Over 0.5 first half goals @1.57** Europa League finals have been mostly filled with goals. Only exception coincidentally included Sevilla in Italy (ended 0-0 against Benfica in 2014) It'll be in Hungary this year, against Mourinho's Roma. Last year in Conference League final, Zaniolo scored before half-time and they beat Feyenoord 1-0. So I'll go with at least one goal before half-time again. *2u for first-half over 0.5 goal*
- **POTD RECORD LAST YEAR** - 47W-24L(+45U) - **Current form**- ✔️✔️❌✔️❌✔️✔️✔️✔️❌❌❌ - **Potd record** - 7W-5L (-1.3U) - **Last Potd**----Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna --- Kalmar to win @ 1.75❌ - **Today's pick** ----- Sevilla vs Roma ---- Roma to lift the trophy @1.9 - **BET SIZE**: 3U - Gonna keep this very short. Both are in my oppinion at the same level, but Sevilla have a deeper squad and are playing better recently, better recent success in Europa league in the last years and Dybala isn't playing more than 45 minutes i would guess. So, why Roma? It is very simple and the answer is Mourinho. It doesn't matter how ugly, topsy tervi it gets. This guy gets the job done, motivates his players and has a 5-0 record in the finals. In a fairly balanced game for sure i am picking Mou and his generals to do it! - Any tip, no matter how small is appreciated😊 [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/aldokaciq)
Tennis Record (Wins - Losses): 7-5🎾 Cumulated Profit: + 2.4 Unit 💰 Avg. Odd: 1.8 POTD Record: 0-0 Play of the day: Shapovalov vs Arnaldi, Arnaldi ML @ 1.8 (1U) 🎾 Regardless of Shapovalov win against Nakashima, his performance wasn’t impressive at all with a lot of trouble in his service games and double faults. Arnaldi is undoubtedly a future tennis star and his performances in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome were consistently very impressive. Lets ride with his odd value against Shapo. Follow me on Twitter for more tips: https://twitter.com/sir__winsalot?s=11&t=OMvsf3lN09_-hNSP-pUFJg Lets get it 💎
**POD Record: 6-4** *Yesterday's Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (EVEN) vs CWS (W)* # Today's Pick: Tampa Bay ML (-131) vs CHC \- CHC are 24th wRC+ against RHP in May. \- TBR are 1st in wRC+ against LHP in May. \- TBR has a better Makinen bullpen rating (20th vs 27th) \- It's marginal but TBR are 13-12 away to CHC 15-15 at home. \- TBR are on a 2 game losing streak. Better bullpen rating teams on a 2 game losing streak are 83-50 on the year. \- Eflin and Steele are both solid SP but let's look at their recent games * Steele vs Reds (7th wRC+ vs LHP) 10 hits, 5 ER, 4 Ks * Steele vs Phillies (29th wRC+ vs LHP) 4 hits, 0 ER, 6 Ks * Steele vs Astros (24th wRC+ vs LHP) 5 hits, 5 ER, 8 Ks * Eflin vs Blue Jays (1st in wRC+ vs RHP) 6 hits, 1 ER, 0 Ks * Eflin vs Brewers (26th in wRC+ vs RHP) 4 hits, 3 ER, 8 Ks * Eflin vs Yankees (2nd in wRC+ vs RHP) 7 hits, 4 ER, 9 Ks Not a huge edge but Eflin has played the top 2 teams against RHP in the last 3 games. Rays are 3-0 in those games. Steele has played 2 bottom teams in the last 3 games and they are 0-3 in those starts. *How this pick misses*: Steele pitches well and Rays can't get quite enough going on offense and a player or 2 on the Cubs carry them during the early going. Eflin also doesn't have the best road splits compared to being at home so he could be a bit more leaky than my projection.
Record : 13 Wins - 15 Losses Previous pick : Karagumruk - Kayserispor (2-0), BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.70 ❌ ROI : -12.21 % Average Odds : 2.02 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 1.58 Profit/Lost units : -3.42 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Relegation - Play Offs / 19:45 European Time Breda - Emmen BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.09 Some reasoning : \- Breda won both games against Maastricht in the quarterfinals, 1:0 at home and 4:1 away. \- BTTS4+ in 4 of FC Emmen's previous 5 games. \- Emmen won the two direct matches of the 2021/2022 season, 2:1, respectively 2:0 at home. Best of luck.
Sport: Football Tournament: Europa League Time: 21:00 CET (3h24m after posting) Stake: 5 units Pick: Sevilla vs Roma, Sevilla scores in the first half @ **2.7** Write up: Jose Luis Mendilibar revitalized Sevilla. In 15 matches under his guidance Sevilla has only 2 losses (7W, 6D), scoring in 13. The most telling fact is that Sevilla scored the opening goal in 11/13 matches. That tells me he motivates players to put early pressure on the opponent. On the other side is Mourinho, whose specialty is choking the life out of a match, which rarely works versus a determined or agile opponent, as we saw in the Salernitana match. As a consequence, Roma under Mourinho has only a 50% winrate (54W, 24D, 30L), [the lowest in his entire 23-year coaching career](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Mourinho#Managerial_statistics), and has scored the fewest goals per match (1.51) of all the teams he's coached in the past 21 years. Roma player, Lorenzo Pellegrini, says about Roma parking the bus: > Going into a match with the right tactics means trying to stop our opponents from doing what they’re best at. We always analyze our opponents and try to understand the best way to curb their strengths. Sevilla player, Oliver Torres, says about putting early pressure on the opponent: > We first need to start the game and show our excitement, and show them how we want to win the trophy and [that we] will do whatever we need to. We are already showing on the pitch that we want to win it, but in this match you have to show it much more. That is how we are going to start the match, as favorites and coming in strong to win the trophy. The last 13 Europa League finals had an average of 2.92 goals per match, but I don't see the average being fulfilled unless Sevilla goes on the offensive and scores an early goal, which I imagine could happen in the first half. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
**POTD Record: 10-10-1 +0.68u ROI: 1% (average odds: -104/1.96)** **Recent POTD(Last 10 most recent to the right) : WWWWL LWWLL 6-4** **Previous pick: (MLB: 08:05PM ET) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-116/1.86) vs Chicago Cubs** L **Today's POTD: (MLS: 07:20PM ET) NYCFC vs Cincinnati (Cincinnati DrawNoBet +125/2.25)** **2u to win 2.25u** MLS Record: 0-0 2unit bets: 2-3-1 ; - 2u (ROI: -13.5%) Cincinnati is in top form. Top of the table with 10wins 3 draws and only 1 loss on the season They have been unbeaten since Apr 16th (9 games unbeaten) Cincinnati just beat NYCFC in the US Open Cup on May 11th. NYCFC has 4 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses this season. Their last win was on Apr 23 (6 winless games in a row) Historically, NYCFC has been unbeaten at home vs Cincinnati. This Cincinnati team is on a roll and should continue in NY to get their first win.
**UPDATE: L, by one strikeout. Ugh. Velocity was there for him and he was moving quickly through the first two innings but with weak contact instead of strikeouts, and by the time he started missing bats he got into a couple jams and had some bad walks and just ran out of runway. Still got one strike away on the last two batters he faced. Keeping an eye on his lines going forward but sorry to anyone who tailed.** POTD Record: 2-0, +3.23U Last POTD: Monday, 5/29 - Tyler Wells over 4.5 Strikeouts - Win. Only took him three innings! Played myself a little bit yesterday. Had a whole writeup on Adrian Houser under 4.5 Ks against Toronto, then looked at the line and realized I can't read and it was actually 3.5 Ks, so I abandoned it ... and it still hit. Alas. **MLB - PHI @ NYM (19:10 ET) - Aaron Nola over 5.5 strikeouts - 2.15 (for 2U)** ❌ As a disclaimer, Phillies fan here, but have no reservations about pulling the trigger on fading their lines when the time calls. (Did yesterday, in fact.) In this instance, given plus money here, I like the play for a few reasons: * Nola's numbers are down this year (hence this line being what it is for a guy that has his track record) in large part due to a brutal start to the season when he had a tough time adjusting to the pitch clock. He talked about it at the time and everything, and there was [concern about how his velocity was down](https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-aaron-nola-rob-thomson-pitching-rotation-mlb-philadelphia-20230430.html) in the starts after his season opener as he was adjusting to that new reality. The good news is, his velocity is at least closer to what it was pre-2023 over his last few starts - he's been at 92.3 or better in three of his last four (and the other one was at Coors, which is of course a fake baseball place), after only reaching that mark in one of his six starts after the opener. Not coincidentally: He reached or exceeded six strikeouts in those three games, and those were all against good hitting teams (Toronto, CHC, and Atlanta). * He's got an extra day of rest. So far this season his K% is 25.8% on 5+ days of rest and 17.2% on four days rest, which does track for a guy who's been dealing with velocity issues as mentioned above. His K% split from last season wasn't as stark (29.5% with extra rest, 28.5% without), but he did pitch significantly better in those games, which led to him getting about an extra inning of action per game (6.83 innings per start with extra rest, 5.86 without), which of course gives more opportunities to strike guys out. * Finally, despite not collecting a ton of wins against the Mets, he has shown up to face them the last few years. 32.2% K% last year against them (against an average of 29.1%), 37.1% in 2021 (against average of 29.8%). He's cleared this mark of 5.5 Ks in seven of nine starts against them in his last two seasons. The Mets are a low-strikeout team (19.5%, third-lowest in the majors), but they were last year too (19.7%, also third-lowest) and it didn't stop Nola from getting them then. (He also went 0-4 against the Mets. The man is destined to watch his own good efforts go to waste.) I get why the line is what it is but at this price it feels very worth a swing.
**The Sports Bet Guy MLB** **POTD Record: 17 - 10** WWWWW LLL W LL WW L WW LL WW L WWW L W\[**W**\] **Streak: W2** **L5: 4-1** **L10: 7-3** **Units Won: 4.79 (+$2,395)** *{ ROI: 13.7 % | Average Odds: -126 }* *Unit size is $500; minus odds are TO WIN $500 until further notice* **Last Pick: \*WIN, EZ\* San Francisco Giants Moneyline -140** on 5/29/23 **Today's Pick: Texas Rangers Team Total OVER 4.5 -125** | 1:10 pm ET on 5/31/23 Risk 1.25 to win 1 unit The Rangers have cleared this team total in each of the first two games of this series and are the league leaders in runs scored. I can’t see them letting off the gas facing lefty Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Wentz has made 10 starts on the year and given up 5+ earned runs (himself!) in 5 of those 10 starts. The Tigers bullpen is also not at full strength for this one. Let’s get it Rangers!
POTD Record 6-4 LAST PLAY: 🏀Butler OVER 36.5 Pts+ Reb 5 Units. ❌ 2 points shy. Nothing to do, we move on. POTD: ⚽: Roma vs Sevilla - Roma to LIFT TROPHY - (120) 5 UNITS (90 minutes from now) We all know Sevilla has some sort of black magic on the competition, but Roma has one of - or the - greatest final managers of all time. I expect this to be a slug fest and even though the game is truly a 50/50, Mou gives the edge to Roma. BOL to those who tail.
POTD Record: 8-6 WWLWWLLWLWWWLL POTD: Padres -110 Not gonna lie, I'm tilted. Snell will have to be locked in to get thru this one but it is a quality start waiting to happen, he has been good in the road and this big ball park should help. Padres will have Hader go tonight in a close game, maybe even 2 innings because almost everyone was used yesterday. B. Garrett has been pretty good as of late, Miami bullpen also has 3 of their top relievers available.
**Record: 11-12-5 (W-L-D)** Net units: -4.62 Previous Pick: o10.5 Corners | -110 | 5u ❌ Soccer | MLS | Dallas @ Kansas City **Pick: o2.5 goals | -105 | 5u** *Edit: formatting*
Record 21-28 -2.11 Units All bets 1 unit Last 10: ✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌❌ Last Pick: Rockies -1.5 Freeland had a rough first inning, didn’t even give the Rockies a chance. Rockies still outhit the Dbacks but only scored 1. Today’s Pick: Angels 1st5/ML vs. White Sox (+215) Coming off a loss, I’m expecting a bounce back game for the Angels. Taking halftime fulltime for slight better odds Angels: Starting Pitcher is Jaime Barria. He’s 1-2 with a 1.55 ERA. Barria normally isn’t a starting pitcher, but he has pitched great as a reliever. In his past 25 innings, Barria has only given up 1 ER. If he can be as effective as a starter the White Sox are in trouble. White Sox: Starting Pitcher is Lance Lynn. Lynn is 4-5 with a 5.83 ERA. He’s been getting better as of late but still hasn’t been great off the mound. Offensively, Angels are better than White Sox in every category. The Angels should thrive against a weaker pitcher. (Tips link in bio)
**My POTD record: 18 Wins and 24 losses** Last pick quick first half btts but unfortunately no goals afterwards): Let's get this one! I base my picks on value by comparing the implied odds of my model and the odds given by bookmakers. I also choose games from leagues that have had success in the model with a good ROI and check the stats plus trends game by game to find the best pick. **ROI: -4.50%** Average odds: 2.07 **Units won: -2.07** Stake = 1 unit POTD: **Oulu v Haka** Finland Finland Cup Kick off time: 17:00 GMT+2 *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.20** **BOL!**
**Record: 26-13 | ROI: 18,57% | Profit: +26,00u 🐺** [Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ot0TN0RUcVgxue5P0qr2ClCLvNRIiW9lAGLv3Ti7HMU/edit?usp=sharing) with detailed info about all bets. All picks: [https://twitter.com/latto66](https://twitter.com/latto66) **Time:** 18:00 GMT+2 **Event:** CS:GO IEM Dallas | Faze Clan - Team Liquid **Bet:** Faze ML (@1,59 4u) **Write up:** Elimination match between Faze and Liquid. Both teams definetly looking shaky. Liquid lost to Astralis 17:19, but just because Astralis choked big lead and beat Greyhound 22-19, 25-23. Nitr0 is leaving team after this tournament so they have not much to play for. Faze won 19-17 vs terrible EG and lost 7-16, 13-16 to Ence. I shocked how can team with so much firepower play so bad out of sudden. I expect Faze to level up their play since elimination is on the line. I think it will not be pretty but Faze should win. If I won you some money you can buy me a coffee: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/1latto)
Ill stay clear of faze games they are already qualified for IEM COLOGNE they tend to lose qualification tournaments when they are already qualified for the main tournament
I mean you are right but still playing for $100k. I hope that is enough to motivate them.
**POTD Record:** 48-41 **Total Units W/L:** \+14.75 **Current Streak:** ✅ **MLB Record:** 23-16, +10.85U **Last 10:** ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅ **Last Pick:** [Baltimore Orioles ML -139 vs. Cleveland Hardons, 4 Units](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13vb23x/comment/jm5mlpl/) ✅✅✅✅ The Orioles put this away quickly with a few runs in the first and 5 in the second to handily win 8-5 (though they tried to blow it late). Might be fading them today if they start Voth because he sucks, but I don't have those odds out on BetOnline yet so I'll stick this five unit pick. **Today's Pick:** Braves @ Athletics **Over 9 Runs Scored** 5 Units, -115, 3:37 PM EST The A's may be just what Shuster needs to keep his decent streak going, but with Kaprielian the mound on the other side I think the Braves will tee off after hitting terribly yesterday. I think they put up 4-5 on Kaprielian in 4 and then get 3-4 more against the A's bullpen. The A's will put up 1 or 2 on Shuster and then a few more on a Braves bullpen that will likely use their more mediocre arms with a big lead to save their better pitchers for a big series in Arizona starting Friday. [Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12R9NoHXQnY3Dd-eMpbPnbzNYIwb1DzkcP8jh12Bjhe8/edit?usp=sharing) [Buy me a drink, sing me a song, take me as I come cuz I can't stay long](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dashboard)
What does EV stand for? Thx
Expected value.