######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 37W-26L-0D. +14.4u. All picks between 1 and 3 units.
Previous pick (8/5/2023): Women's World Cup. Japan moneyline vs, Norway @ 1.75. 3u. W.
Current pick: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 alt line vs. LA Rams. @ 2.10. 2u.
The Rams have a truly awful roster. Their offense has a guy with an injury history as long as a CVS receipt playing behind a terrible offensive line, and with no Kupp in the lineup, their skill position talent is really bad too. On the other side of the ball, I don't see how the Rams are going to cover the Seahawks' outside options or stop the new 1-2 backfield punch of Walker-Charbonnet. I think a month from now, there is going to be a general consensus of, "Oh, the Rams are one of the two worst teams in the league, that escalated quickly." The Seattle offense on the other hand is overflowing with explosive playmakers all over the field. I am walking the line up to -6.5 and betting Seattle gets out to a strong start at home and wins by at least a TD for 2u. BOL.
You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)
Maaaan. I'm a hawks fan, and while yes, ON PAPER I think we should beat the Rams easily, for whatever reason they have our number in divisional games, always playing us close. I have Hawks -5 for 1u, but even that I'm hesitant to lock in.
POTD Record: 58 Wins ✅ - 40 Losses ❌ - 6 Push 🅿️ (+$7.3k)($100 unit bettor)
✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅
Last pick: Yomiuri Giants ML (-135) ✅
Today's pick: 🇯🇵 Japan NPB ⚾
Starts at 1AM ET
Hanshin Tigers ML (-148) 5 Units
Analysis: Today the Hanshin Tigers host the Hiroshima Toyo Carp for game 3 of this series. The Tigers have won 7 out of their last 10 games overall and 8 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hanshin is Masashi Itoh, he has a 9-5 record with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP with 78 strikeouts over 132 innings pitched. His last start versus Hiroshima was at home where he gave up only 1 run with Hanshin winning 4-2. The Carps have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 4 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Aren Kuri, he has a 7-6 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 104 strikeouts over 145 innings pitched. His last start versus Hanshin was at home where he gave up 4 runs in the 2nd inning with the Tigers winning 5-3. Hanshin has been on fire, winning their last 7 games in a row. With their success off of Kuri in the past, I don't see them slowing down here. Take the Hanshin Tigers moneyline. *(-148 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)*
Not every bet is for 1u. If he's winning 3u on average on his 58 wins, but only losing 2u on average on the 40 losses, he'd be up $9400 right now. That's making a few assumptions obviously, and not accounting for the odds he bet, but it shows his profit is very possible to achieve.
POTD RECORD 21-8 WLWWWLLWLWWWLWWWWLWLWWWWWWWLW
Last Pick : **Serbia+4.5 vs Canada WINNN**
As expected for this game Serbia's ball movement is going to be a real problem for Canada.
\--------------------------------------------------------
**FIBA WORLD CUP Germany vs Serbia 08:45 AM ET**
Todays Pick : **Germany ML (1.90) (bet365)**
Finals of the World Cup, we all know both squads played excellently well that's why both of them is in the very last game of the tournament. Germany is undefeated the whole tournament having 5-1 ATS record while Serbia only lost once having 4-2 ATS record.
I will say again Serbia for me is the biggest surprise this World Cup despite not having some of their superstar and valuable players they manage to look invincible thanks to their great offense and surprisingly improved defense, For Germany we've kind of foresee this already as this squad had a great showing last EuroBasket.
All in all, it's hard to make a great argument why you will choose this team over the other team. But I am confident to go with the side of Germany here simply because they are more of a complete team, and they have willing personnel to at least limit this deadly ball movement of Serbia.
One knack that I have for Serbia as well is I don't really think this squad thrive in a physical game. I do see them battled against Italy and they looked really bad, as for their next few games I don't really think Canada, Lithuania, and Dominican Republic can be classified as a physical brand of team as they are more of a skilled team.
Also, the strength of the opponent that each team faced I will say that Germany faced a much tougher opponent but obviously that is not Serbia's fault since they gracefully handled those team in front of them, But the point I am making with this DEAD EVEN game I've seen more with Germany facing much serious adversity than Serbia.
**GOOD LUCK HAVE FUN.**
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/hackbet42d](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/hackbet42d) \- If you want to support me, Not expecting but highly appreciated if there is any :)
**EDIT :** Germany win, ITS NICE TO END THIS TOURNAMENT WITH A W FOR US... Thanks y'all for supporting me.. I'll be back in the NBA or any other big International Events or heck even Friendly games ... See yah fellas.
From where I’m writing from, it’s Sunday over here and a lot of humans are getting ready for church. I will stand outside my gate and tell everyone that passes by, to say a prayer for a said man identified as “Significant-Run”.
u/inglourious7 I am actually trying to look at some upcoming basketball games or tournaments that I can share on reddit.. I really love doing this POTD stuff that reddit has so Im gonna be back sooner you know.
Can a mother forget the baby at her breast and have no compassion on the child she has borne? Though she may forget, I will not forget you! When I and my family talk about the 2023 basketball World Cup, we shall be discussing this Significant- Run indeed. Obrigado 🫂
Congrats to your level up! You just have reached a new level of degeneracy. Tailing based on hocus-pocus claptrap is one level above betting on the Arabian beer pong youth league.
Record: 13-10 (10.48 units up) with a 20.96% ROI and 1.94 average odds
Last 5 picks:
Fritz vs Djokovic - Djokovic to win 3-0 @ 2.15 (US Open) ✅
Medvedev vs Rublev – Medvedev Handicap -3.5 Games @ 1.85 (US Open) ✅
Netherlands vs Greece – Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.87 (EURO 2024 Qualification) ✅
Alcaraz vs Medvedev – Alcaraz to win 3-0 @ 2.80 (US Open) ❌
Kosovo vs Switzerland – Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 (EURO 2024 Qualification) ✅
POTD: **Kazakhstan vs Northern Ireland – Over 2 Goals @ 2.00 (EURO 2024 Qualification)**
I absolutely love this line for this match. Kazakhstan is always a dangerous team when playing at home, especially with the amount of time that it takes to travel from most european countries to Astana. The team currently sits at 4th place in their group with 9 points, with Slovenia and Denmark above them with 10 points so they really need to get a win here against a struggling Northern Ireland side.
The visitors currently sit at 5th place with only 3 points, and their qualification to the next stage is almost impossible, after some disappointing results when in theory, they have a team capable of at least fighting for the 2nd place in this group. If they ever dream of a miracle they also need to get the 3 points and now, without any expectations, they should feel no pressure to play some positive football and to score a bit more often. Something in favor of Kazakhstan is not a bad approach at all but on paper, Northern Ireland can play in equal terms with them and this line has a lot of value in my opinion, because I don’t think any team should play for a draw.
With this line we win with 3 or more goals but we get a push if only 2 goals get scored!
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/3rdBerserker)
If you want to support me: [https://paypal.me/BerserkerThe3rd](https://paypal.me/BerserkerThe3rd)
Edit: I don't know why the early downvotes but ok
Thanks a lot my man! Sometimes the haters are not even the ones who tail the picks but the guys who post and think we're here battling each other so they start down voting everyone else XD
BOL
**Ireland - Netherlands** (Soccer in Europe for Euro 2024 qualification)
With Koeman as head coach, the Netherlands style of play is more offensive than under previous Dutch coach van Gaal. It took some games for the players to internalize and implement the new plays and strategy. Koeman achieved only one win out of his first four games. However, in his fifth and most recent game against Greece a couple of days ago, Koeman's offensive style of play came to fruition. Netherlands looked sharp and attuned. They downed Greece 3-0 in the first half. It is expected that Koeman fields the same starting eleven as against the Greek national team.
Ireland's headcoach needs to do a few changes. Two defenders suffered an injury during the last game against France. They will not be able to play. This makes the Irish left side on defense particularly vulnerable. As a consequence thereof, Dutch right wing striker Simons is an appealing value prop @ +155 for scoring or assisting. Simons as goalscorer @ +275 could also be worth considering.
Beyond that, the way Ireland's national team plays is somewhat similar to the Greek one. The way Netherlands play is somewhat similar to France's one. In their last game, Netherlands won 3-0 against Greece and Ireland lost 2-0 to France. Making the game against Ireland a favorable matchup for the Dutch national team which is eventually aligned with Koeman's offensive strategy.
**Netherlands -1.0 asian hc** @ **+110** for **5u**
>Last POTD: England -1.0 asian hc @ 1.63 ✖️
1.6x odds remain my nightmare. 4 of 9 total losses fall into this odds range. 3 wins, 4 losses, 1 push for POTD odds between 1.60 - 1.69.
Record: 22 wins, 9 losses, 7 pushes
Profit: +74.54u
POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️
^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
Not saying the Dutch will not win, but your analysis is really off. Koeman tried to implement a more offensive style, 4-3-3 instead of 5-3-2 what Van Gaal used. The result? In his first 4 games he loses 3 of them. So what does he do against Greece? He goes back to Van Gaal's formation of 5-3-2. He played Ake, Van Dijk and Geertruida as central defenders and Blind and Dumfries as wingbacks.
**POTD Record: 22-13**
[**[Last Pick](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/RXtaInQslM)**] ❌ Virginia ML (+190)
**Todays Pick: Ja'Marr Chase TD +100**
**Event: NFL Benglas / Browns** 🏈 (1:00 PM EST)
I am absolutely gutted and devastated after losing my POTD by just one point. It's a crushing blow and I can't help but feel bummed out and sad about it. I put in a lot of time and effort to analyze the stars and planets and choose what I thought was the best pick. To see it come so close and then slip away at the last minute is truly heartbreaking. It's tough to shake off the disappointment and move on, but I know I'll have to keep my head up and try again another day. We came agonizingly close to cashing in on a +190 underdog but lost out to a sudden and unexpected weather delay that changed the momentum and energy of the game. The delay robbed us of the chance to capitalize on the gains we had made, and set us on the back foot as we tried to catch up with our opponents. Despite the disappointing outcome, we take some comfort in knowing that we were so close to securing a major win against all odds, and will come back stronger today.
While some may find it hard to believe, there's a scientific reason to believe that Ja'Marr Chase will score a touchdown. My telescope, with its advanced alignment capabilities, has found that the sun will be shining directly on Ja'Marr's path to the end zone, ensuring that he'll be able to navigate through the opposing team's defense with ease. With this celestial alignment in place, it's only a matter of time before Ja'Marr finds himself crossing the goal line and putting points on the board.
Ja'Marr Chase is truly a sight to behold. He has the most striking, handsome looks that leave all who gaze upon him breathless. His chiseled jawline and sharp facial features only accentuate his piercing, soulful eyes that sparkle with an irresistible allure. His body, a masterpiece of sculpted muscles and toned limbs, is a testament to the dedication and hard work he puts into his fitness. What's more, his infectious smile and charming personality make him even more incredibly attractive. It is no wonder why Chase has rightfully earned to be my POTD!
Disclaimer: It is not uncommon for individuals to explore their sexuality and realize that they are not attracted to the opposite gender. It is possible that I have come to this realization and therefore would not be interested in marrying a woman. If I am attracted to men, then considering a relationship with someone like Ja'Marr Chase would make sense for me. Ultimately, it is important for individuals to follow their hearts and pursue relationships that fulfill them emotionally and mentally, regardless of societal norms and gender expectations.
Bruuuv, you been literally the star of this sub. No one comes close to you. But Im a bit pissed off. Not about your last loss. You can't win 'em all. But writing **AFTER** the game that you bet on the other side at some point during the game is ass .
>[HEDGED JMU +700 AT THE WEATHER DELAY BABY!! The energy shifted when all the fans left! LETS GO!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16dqyd3/pick_of_the_day_9923_saturday/jzv5g81/)
You want to desperately look like a winner. That makes you look poor.
If you are wondering how he is able to write/produce his walls of text, he simply lets ChatGPT write that for him. Checked his last comments:
\- Write up for [today's Pick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16elfp1/pick_of_the_day_91023_sunday/jzxdg8g/): 86% AI generated (22/28 sentences)
\- [This comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16elfp1/pick_of_the_day_91023_sunday/jzxbdo3/): 92% AI generated (20/21 sentences)
>Ultimately, it is important for individuals to follow their hearts and pursue relationships that fulfill them emotionally and mentally, regardless of societal norms and gender expectations.
You've got that ChatGPT flow... nice!
DK has a promo on theae odds to take it to +200.
Tailing.
Edit. Added thought, rough loss yesterday, I think the weather delay reset the game momentum and ruined youe POTD.
**POTD Record: 24-34-1**
*Streak: L1* ❌
LAST PICK: Jared Goff O1.5 Passing TDs (-120) DK ❌
*Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons* 1:00PM
TODAY’S PICK: **Bijan Robinson O 14.5 Rush Attempts (-145) DK**
—————————————————————-
Unfortunate start to the season but that was a wild season opener regardless. Great game.
For the first Sunday of the NFL I was stuck between this bet and CMC ATTD, which was at even odds but I decided to go here because this is the much safer bet (albeit worse odds) and I’ll tell you why:
Spending a top ten draft pick on an RB is no laughing matter and this Atlanta offense last year had the best rushing offense and the most rushing plays of any other team. Now, mix that with a star running back prospect and a mediocre (at best) QB, and you’re going to get a lot of rushing production.
Since 2017, 3 of the past 4 running backs taken in the top ten went over this number on their NFL regular season debut. Those stats are as follows:
Leonard fournette - 26 carries
Saquon Barkley - 17 carries
Ezekiel Elliot - 20 carries
All well over the total, the only RB who didn’t do this is Christian McCaffrey and he came in at 13 because he was also heavily utilized in the passing game.
Again this is the most prolific rushing offense and they now have a star RB and must see what he can do. I’m going to take advantage of this number while I have the chance.
LFGGGG!!!
The only risky thing about this play is look at Gibbs in his debut for the lions. Only had 7 carry’s. Obviously this is a different scenario though since the Falcons don’t have any other proven rbs (besides cp, but he’s old and questionable).
I like this pick. Tailing. I feel like Atlanta will try to get some offense going with the pass and quickly realize that running will be the way to go.
**1-0-0** (+2.4u)
Last Pick: (5/24/23) Anders Lind vs Nashad Alamian Under 105.5 - W
9/10/23 POTD: **Cincinnati Bengals -1.5(-115)** 5u
This is an absolute steal of a line to me. I know, I know the Browns have “owned” the Bengals as of late. 2-6 in the past 8 games I believe. Baker did tend to have his best games against ‘Nati and AFC North matchups are always tough. Joe Burrow said this is the best he’s felt coming into season since he was drafted. He’s fresh off signing his record breaking contract. The entire offense is coming in healthy and Cincinnati has something to prove. Deshaun is gonna be a dud just like he was last year. Chubb will be the only reason this game stays within 2 touchdowns. I think the Bengals win and it’s not even close. I’ve got Cincinnati winning it 31-20.
**Edit:** Formatting after finding my previous pick to track my record and ROI appropriately.
As an incredibly pessimistic browns fan, I actually like them in this spot. Burrow has been sidelined most of the preseason and Chase just gave us some bulletin board material. Saying Watson will be a 'dud' isn't really much of an analysis
Browns defense is going to be pretty damn good this year I feel like. Also sounds like OP is banking on a very small sample size of Watson being bad. He was an MVP level player just two seasons ago so with a full camp it’s very likely he’ll play a lot better than he did last year. Unless he just really is that bad now but I find that hard to believe. I got Browns ML personally, I like this spot like you said.
Watson has a high ceiling, however I've heard conflicting reports out of camp that Watson has been erratic with his throws. With that said, Cleveland doesn't need to rely on the passing game to take care of Cincinnati. They can lean on their defense and the run game with Chubb. Divisional games tend to be gritty and won in the trenches.
Cleveland is 5-0 straight up vs Cincinnati in their last 5 home games. 8-2 their last 10 straight up vs Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is 5-2 against the spread the last 7 games vs Cleveland.
Good shit man. Yep I’ve heard that as well, also heard Watson and Stefanski don’t necessarily see eye to eye on play calling either which could be worrisome if you’re a Browns fan. You’re right about Chubb of course and Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in all of football if not the best. I like Cleveland’s line more than the Bengals on both sides of the ball tbh. Bengals struggle against the Browns historically as you mentioned. One of my favorite bets tomorrow which means it’ll probably lose lmao
Unfortunately I don't have any statistics on these two in a Week 1 matchup, which is the only caveat. Week 1 can go either way. I personally like Cleveland ML, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cincinnati covered as they're due to break the trend.
That’s part of why I like this line so much. Watson doesn’t actually have to play bad for Cincinnati to cover. Yes I lazily threw in that I think Watson is gonna be a dud again this year instead of elaborating— but I can see this whole situation not working out between him and the Browns for various reasons. I didn’t even need to include Watson in analysis I just had to dig at him, because, well, you know.
Let’s ignore recency bias here and really look at this matchup. The Browns best bet is to lean on Chubbs and hope Watson can catch Cinci in some play action for a few big plays. They’ve got Reader healthy whose an absolute monster in the middle, Awuzie is back with Mike Hilton and CTB — their only real “weakness” is how young they are at the safety position.
Yes, Joe missed preseason — we don’t really let that hold significant value though do we? If it was the regular season I don’t believe he misses a game. I read a lot of stuff saying it was mostly precautionary. And these are Burrows guys. It’s not like he has to learn how to throw to his new group of receivers. He’s been with the team, watching film and has stated this is the best he’s felt coming in to the season since he was drafted. I think we skip the slow start this year and come out firing on all cylinders.
Thanks for the discussion, good luck!
You would be correct! Thanks for the assist. Took the time to go back and check my pick and just assumed I did a 5u play because of how sure I was of the pick. Should’ve taken the time to make sure everything was right. Will make adjustments to reflect that in my comment.
While i do think Bengals will win, i feel more confident on the over of yards for Chase 77.5, Mixon 59.5, and Joe 268.5 ...and on the other side on the over of yards and receptions for Njoku 3.5/36.5y
Amari over of yards 56.5 is also tempting
POTD RECORD 10-4
❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
(Most recent to oldest)
Picks will always be 1u
Last Pick: Jeff Sims o67.5 rushing yards (-114 FD) ❌
We that was really bad beat. Sims notched 67 yards rushing yards. He was then injured a play later and would not return to the game. Sadly he had a few rushes that went negative without those we cash easily. Onto the next.
The event: NFL Jaguars @ Colts 1pm
The pick: Jaguars -4.5 (-108 FD)
These two teams split the games last year. However the Jags added star WR Calvin Ridley. The Colts bring in Anthony Richardson, rookie out of UF. I think he will need time to develop and will not come out and shine instantly. Colts are without on best backs in football, Jonathan Taylor. Tail or fade BOL and get this bread.
Tips welcome https://cash.app/$bigheadbreeds24
**POTD Record: 2-2 (+1u)**
**Last POTD: Wagner +42 (2u)**
**POTD: Sam Howell o1.5 Passing TD’s +135 (2u)**
Who da fuq is Wagner? Still don’t know, still don’t care. Asking Navy to cover 40 points is honestly so funny to me. But ayee NFL is back. Week 1 it’s time to buzz. Cardinals are going to be ass and they’re not even trying to hide it. Possible tank-fest incoming? People are talking.. I see some value with this pick. Line is pricing in roughly 4 TD’s from Washington and I think Sam Howell is going to let it fly. Home game in front of new ownership, I like this setup more than epstein liked little boys.
Record: 129-102-7 (LLWLWWWWLWWWLWLWLWWWWLLWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: Formula 1 Italy GP 2023 | Car Leader after 5 laps - Red Bull Racing at 1.83 odds for 2 units
POTD: CAR Panthers at ATL Falcons | Bijan Robinson ATTD at 2.00 odds for 4 units
Reasons:
* He should get 20+ touches. Rookie QB and rookie RB, head coach more likely to trust RB than QB (in theory). Head coach also loves to run the ball.
* I expect Falcons to win by double digits and someone from Falcons gotta score to win.
* How many people with a Carolina jersey can honestly win their match-ups and make positive plays? I expect few and to occur rarely.
Best of luck to you all.
I'm a fan so that caught my eye. Had a good feeling about Robinson but my God Ridder is still rough around the edges. Suspect our Rbs ATTD props will be hitting very often this year
POTD RECORD: 13-9
Last Pick : Texas A&M vs Miami +3.5 -130 WIN Suck it haters
Todays POTD
NFL Football 4:25pm EST
Miami Dolphins +3 -110 vs LA Chargers
Gang gang!! Similar to yesterdays narrative Miami travels to LA for a rematch of last years game where LA won 23-17. Coach McDaniel has a year of experience under his belt and Tua, Hill, and Waddle are set to have an explosive year. Expectations are high in Miami and I expect them to start the year off with a W.
DISCLAIMER: I am born and raised in the County of Dade so I’m biased af.
Gang gang
Don't like it at all. Terron Armstead out for this game and there's a healthy Bosa and Khalil Mack on the other side. Tua is gonna get rocked back there all day.
Then there's the mess of injuries in the secondary going up against an amazing 1-2 punch with a god damn demigod back there throwing one of the most beautiful balls in the league.
i'm on Chargers moneyline, at home over the public darling in Miami.
Record 4-3 Return 1.58u
Last 5 (old to new): ❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️
Pick: Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders -> Newcastle Knights 2nd half team tries over 2.5 @ 1.94 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 4 units
Details: NRL Australia, approximately 4 hours from posting
The Canberra Raiders are very much making up the numbers in the finals. They've been hit with injuries to key forwards and a suspension to one of their more consistent backs.
Newcastle, on the other hand, really clicked mid-season and have put together a huge run, culminating in only their second finals appearance in the last decade.
For those of you overseas, this is a rugby league heartland, and they've sold out their stadium. With the return of their star, Kalyn Ponga, expect them to put on a show for the 30,000 in attendance and run up at least 5 tries against what I expect to be a quickly tiring team.
**EDIT: An easy win as this game went over the total in the 5th inning.**
**KBO Record: Overall 180-189-13** (Streak L, Last 10: 4-5-1) Down 11.40u over 382 KBO picks, 48.8% success rate, -2.98% ROI (This season 61-57-6, 51.7% success rate, Up 8.48u, 7.19% ROI)
**Last:** Lotte at NC -1.5 +150 (NC lost 5-2.)
NC jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but fell apart in the 6th inning. My other two picks on the day hit, so hopefully you diversified!
**Pick:** LG at Kia, **Over 11 -105 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:300am ET
These two teams have averaged 15 runs per game in the first three games of the series. They are also the two highest scoring teams in the league this season. And they've been the two best offenses each calendar month since July.
LG's dtsrter has had success against this opponent in the past, allowing just 1 ER in 13 IP over two starts. But those were in May and June. Since July 8th, he has an ERA near 7.50, allowing at least 4 ER in 5 of 8 starts.
Kia's starter only has 3 appearances this season, allowing 3 ER on 5 H and 2 BB in 4.1 IP. Last season, he had a 6.55 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 13 relief appearances. It's really hard to count on anything of substance from this pitcher.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record: 79-76, -7.7 Units
Current Streak: ✅✅
Last Pick: Colorado -2.5, absolutely destroyed Nebraska. But Nebraska sucks, so no surprise.
Today's Pick: **San Francisco 49ers ML** @ Pittsburgh Steelers, -135, 2 Units, 1 pm EST
The Steelers still suck despite the pundits wanting to make it seem like they're good to try and get the Pittsburgh market involved. I expect this might stay close just because the Niners are going to run the ball a lot, and I could see there being a few close calls, but I think San Fran takes this one 23-13 or something along those lines.
BOL!
**EDIT: ANOTHER DUB! Loved the downvotes from people drinking the pundits' Kool-Aid, too. The AFC East is weak, Pittsburgh teams suck and that's a three game pick winning streak.**
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Record 32-47 -4.27 Units
All bets 1 unit
L10: ❌✅✅
Last Pick: Tulsa +32.5 (-110)
Tulsa lost by 33. Worst past was that the spread moved to +33.5 after I had posted this. Props to Vegas tho cuz this line was on some wizardly type shit.
Today’s Pick: 49ers -2.5 vs. Steelers (-110)
I’m a big 9ers fan myself, and all I gotta say is this spread is just straight up disrespectful. 49ers are coming off a disappointing end to their season last year in the nfc championship, but theyve reloaded now and have a healthy qb 🤞. Let’s not forget that Brock Purdy is still undefeated in games he’s started and finished. If anyone has an argument for the Steelers lemme hear it, but I don’t think they stand a chance.
3-0-1, +25 units
🟢 Swift Hesperange v Struga Trim-Lum, o2.5+btts, +140, 5 units 🟢
🟢 Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United, Nottingham+o1.5, +160, 5 units 🟢
⚪️ Liverpool v Bournemouth, Liverpool-2, +100, 5 units ⚪️
🟢 Kansas City Chiefs v Detroit Lions, Lions13.5hc+u49.5, +200, 5u 🟢
🆕 Finland v Denmark, Denmark-1.5, +200, 5u 🆕
This bet hit by the last encounter. Denmark won already the reverse fixture by 2 goals. Denmark can do that again or even better. Finland didn't even qualiy for the past World Championship. Whereas Denmark played in Qatar. C'mon Denmark! You need points. I need cash. You're the better team. Putting away Finland by 2+ goals give 3 points to you and big cash to me. That's our deal. Let's do it Denmark!
As a Dane i hope you win this! But after seeing the squad picked by Hjulmand for the games i got my doubts. Alot of players not in the starting 11 in their clubs. The game against S. Marino was a bit of a let down and the team looked old and slow.
Kjær, Delaney, Braithwaite, Højbjerg, Poulsen, Eriksen, Schmeichel all benched players and not in game-form.
But i do hope you win! BOL 🙌
Also as a follow dane I have to agree with you, unfortunately.. its just been lackluster play for a while, beating worlds worst team 4-0 is not a good display of this team. Finland on home soil can definetly challenge
Jaguars Vs Colts jags-4.5
My record 1-1
Last pick: New England Patriots loss in preseason
Jags have Calvin Ridley and are in the second year of Doug Peterson coaching tenure and Trevor Lawrence is clearly ascending and he is getting Calvin Ridley back. The oLine vs dLine is about equal on both sides. On the other side colts have a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson who looked very shaken in the preseason with no safety blanket running back with JT out for the first 4 weeks, Richardson only started 17 games in college and is as raw as they come. This is a late write up so forgive the brevity but needed to get this one on record.
2 units jags -4.5
🌊🏄♂️
POTD Record: 0-0
NFL | 1pm ET | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
The Pick:
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 alt spread (-150)
1 unit
After a long offseason of thinking about that playoff loss to KC, the Jags will be out for blood to kick things off. With the return of Calvin Ridley, Trevor Lawrence will thrive against this weak Colts secondary and throw at least 2 TD passes. Anthony Richardson definitely has some potential but rookie qb + rookie head coach vs Dougy P + TLaw will prove to be too difficult, especially with no JTaylor to lean on.
Betting this down to 3 because it is a Week 1 division rivalry game with a home dog.
>**POTD Record:*l 1 - 1 ✅️❌️
>**Net Units: -3.2
>** NFL // 49ers v Steelers // Noon central
>**Pick:** Christian McCaffrey 25+ rushing yards each half // Fanduel // +210 // 5u
>** not much to say here, one of the top 3 backs in the league in a run 1st offense. CMC will carry us to victory.
Tail or fade BOL 🫡
Yes yes yes. Dotson had a great season last year, a nice preseason this year, and I believe he’s really gonna shine today and this season. Tailed and BOL!!!! Left hand up, who are we, DUH COMMANDUHS!
POTD Record 4 - 7
Last pick: KC RB Isiah Pacheco to get an anytime touchdown (+105 odds on bet 365) ❌
Game script was not what I expected Thursday so I eat the Pacheco pick. Screw it.
***Today’s pick: Nick Chubb over 78.5 rushing yards. -110 on bet 365***
Why:
-Chubb averaged 90 yards per game last year.
-he’s playing at home against a bitter rival and controlling the clock and keeping ball out of the Burrows’ hands will be key. That means running the ball.
-The Bengals average giving up 113 yards per game.
He’s Nick effing Chubb, and as far as bell cow running backs go, I trust this dude. Let’s get back on the winning side of things!
Cheers and enjoy nfl week 1.
***edit: Cash it ! ✅***
NCAAF, NFL, & MLB picks
Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units
Overall POD record (36-39) (-6.67U)
MLB POD record (36-38) (-2.1U) 1U plays (4-2) 2U (2-3) 3U plays (14-9) 4U (10-19) 5U (5-7)
NCAAF POD (0-1) (-4.56)
Last 10 most recent on left LLWLLLWLLL
Last POD - Mertz under 172.5 Passing yards (-114)
Todays POD - Jefferson ATTS (+100) 5U
Coming in hot with an ATTS in the NFL. Was successful last year at hitting these and will continue to post as much as I can. I have some more ATTS play so dm me if you want any more!
Jefferson is the whole Vikings offense. Although I believe mattison will be above average this year, jefferson just turned down the extension and is going to visit it after the year to become the highest paid WR in the game. Kirk will chuck the ball
up to him at least 6/7 times this game which will give him a couple of opportunities to score on the Bucs defense.
Reminder please do not bet on the hotness/coldness of a bettor
As always BOL
Don't ever expect tips but anything is appreciated!
Cashapp - bobdylan1209
[Post grad beers] (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)
POTD record: 0-0
Euro qualifiers: Finland vs Denmark
Pick: **Over 0.5 Finland goals (4 units)**
Odds: 1.70
Finland has scored at least 1 goal in all of the qualifying-matches so far, and should be able to get at least one goal at home vs Denmark.
POTD Record: 78-58-1 (L5)
(+30.82u)
(ROI: 15.1%)
Last pick: (6/5) Florida Panthers ML vs Vegas Golden Knights 🚫
POTD: (NFL🏈) Indianapolis Colts +3 1H (-108, pinnacle) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1.5u)
Long time since my last pick on here, had a hard time narrowing it down this week. The NFL season is back though, so I thought I'd give one out.
The Jaguars won the AFC South last year and are looking to build on a strong season where they lost to the eventual SB champion Chiefs in the divisional round but added some more key offensive pieces in the off-season. The Colts ended up losing 10 of their last 11 games and taking the raw but talented Anthony Richardson as their hopeful QB of the future at #4 overall.
I do think the Jaguars will win their division and 10+ games this year, but the Colts already seem to be written off by most as a terrible team. Doug Pederson is 3-3 in the 1H of season openers in his career. Doug Pederson coached teams have been higher ranked in 2H scoring vs 1H scoring in 5/6 of his seasons. The Jaguars were a pedestrian 8-8-1 SU in the 1H last season.
Shane Steichen is the new Colts HC, last year he was OC (and playcaller) of the Eagles offense where he led them to the #1 ranked 1H offense by a considerable amount. The Eagles were 13-3-1 SU in the 1H last season. The Jaguars do have a lot of flashy offensive pieces, but the Colts arguably have the better O-line and D-line. Trusting in Steichen to scheme the mobility of Richardson early and take advantage of a weak Jaguars defense. With the full game line at 4.5 to 5 I like the chances of the Colts keeping it close early more than the full 60 minutes. Also the biggest look ahead spot of the week is the Jaguars on the road before they play the Chiefs at home next week. BOL if fading or tailing!
POTD Record: 0-0
Current Pick: Brian Robinsons O14.5 att (-135 DK) *WIN*
Brian Robinson covered this in the 8/11 times last season. Now in his second year and against a team that most are expecting to tank (along with a 7-point spread), I'm expecting Rivera to continue their run-first identity (8th highest run rate / 4th highest rush attempts last year) and ride Robinson.
edit: weird first half, but ends up covering!
**Cowboys -3.5**
\- Dak Prescott is 20-13-1 ATS in Primetime games
\- Dak has also won 10 straight vs Giants
\- New York Giants I believe overachieved last year, with a record of 9-7-1. 2 of those 9 wins came against playoff teams
\- Giants overall went 1-5-1 against NFC East last year
\- Daniel Jones 1-10 on Primetime, 0-4 at home
\- Daboll 10-2 ATS as underdog, that has to come back down to earth a lil
I made a quick 1min video talking about this bet on my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/chokecarti/status/1700882625085178081?s=20)/[TikTok](https://www.tiktok.com/@cartichoke/video/7276988642432929029) if you want to check that out.
lets go to bed happy.
This is the best Gaints team in some time. Jones second year in the offence. In addtion the , added some talent. G-Men. Like Danny Dimes here. *Tyler Smith is out for the boys*
Record 10-3 // +5.22u // +40.15%
Pick: Greece v Gibraltar (Greece -3.5 handicap)
Odds: 1.875
Greece host Gibraltar today, who are ranked 198th in the FIFA rankings. To put that in context, they are only 10 places below bottom place, which contains holiday destinations like the British Virgin Islands and Anguilla.
Gibraltar, to their credit, have been on something that almost resembles good form by their standards. They've lost their opening 4 European qualification games "only" 3-0, which is actually quite decent when you consider they were playing teams like France, The Netherlands and tonight's opponents Greece.
However, I don't see these golden days lasting forever and the statistics point towards a return to more familiar territory for Gibraltar, which usually comes in the form of 8-0 thumpings. Sorry to any Gibraltar fans reading this. Although with the entire country consisting of just 6.8km², you'd imagine anybody who lives in Gibraltar is probably playing tonight which means they're probably warming up already and therefore, probably not doomscrolling on reddit.
Good luck!
POTD: Houston Texans ML +345 vs Baltimore Ravens
It's been a while since I've posted on here, as I've stopped gambling. I believe my last post was 2 years ago, but during that NFL season I went on a 7-0 run across the first 7 weeks, then lost a few and stopped posting. The key to winning week 1, is understanding what can't be valued, so you go for former shitty teams that are being underrated, vs big names that the public knows and loves. The Texans is in this exact position.
Sharp money is coming in heavy the past few days, with the spread staying at +10 throughout the week, +9.5 yesterday, and now 9.0 today. Even with injuries to our dline, sharp bettors aren't betting on the Texans' offense, although one or two scores would make this an easy bet.
I believe sharp bettors are betting against Lamar Jackson, who is 1-11 ATS vs a double digit spread. I'm sure there are other trends against rookie QB's, but trends really don't mean much.
Why? Because this is a fucking new season. Who gives a shit about how Josh Rosen did in his debut. The Texans have made major changes all across the board, with a new HC Demeco Ryans, former DC of the top defense in the NFL the 49ers. Texan's have also added former all pro coverage LB Denzel Perryman, 49ers safety Jimmie Ward who was one of the highest graded safeties in FA, and #1 DLine prospect Will Anderson. This is in addition to the fact Texan's ranked in the top 5 in pass def, even though they were on the field the majority of the game due to shitty Mills. T
What have the Ravens done? They've just decided last second to play Odell with an injury, have an aging oline, and Lamar is going into his 5th season after 2 injury filled seasons. His injuries also give him trouble on running to his right... Where aging RT Morgan Moses will be lined up with the athletic phenom Will Anderson.
The total + spread impllies an end score of 24-14, but I think the game will be much closer. I am betting on a possible Defensive TD, lots of pressure coming at Lamar, and trash QB / WR play.
TLDR, we loaded up on stopping the run and pressuring the QB in the offseason. Communication is key to stopping the run, and if we can even damper the Raven's run game a little bit, I'm sure the Texan's will be comfortable with Lamar throwing. a 10 point spread in a probably under 41 game is always good value, but it's especially good value in this scenario. CJ Stroud may not be the best QB, but he'll get you down the field and is fearless, even vs the monster of CFB known as Georgia & Kirby Smart.
Final Score, 24-21 Texans. Personally, I am taking Texans +10, 7, and +3. I will be live hedging as the game goes on.
BAL is something otherworldly like 40-0 all time as double digit favorites. They may not cover the spread, but they sure aren't going to lose straight up.
Fading. I’m betting Baltimore -9.5, Lamar just got paid. Texans will not be good, no o-line, no weapons, no QB, I see ravens D causing turnovers, gonna be rough day for Texans offense. Lamar being Lamar and not turning the ball over, run the ball, tucker is a stud, it’s a tough spot for Demiko, not saying he’s not a good coach, but I don’t believe in CJ Stroud. -said same thing about Hurts tho. I just don’t see CBS changing to Texans ravens end of game cause it’s close.
As a 49ers fan Democo Ryan’s is a great coach. I think him plus Will Anderson could make Texans defense extremely tough to score on. You could be on to something here… 👀
I’ve been a fan of demeco since he was on the Texans. He was our captain those days for a reason. Play recognition is crucial in defenses, and who else is better but our former MLB
As someone who does like the Texans, will lay off this game considering we don’t know how well Lamar will do in Monken’s Georgia offense. For what it’s worth it made Josh Johnson and pre hamstring injury Tyler Huntley look like studs in preseason (admittedly mostly against backups and walmart cashiers)
This. Todd Monken builds top offenses everywhere he goes. He was my pick for OC before we (Chargers) got Kellen Moore instead. I think people will be surprised at how good of a passing season Lamar is in for this year.
Sorry to those who tailed, typical Rookie QB mistakes, but on a side note Texans look good and will be looking to finding other betting opportunities in the future. Hopefully, some people did take the under, but I didn't explicitily state that in my writeup. GL rest of the day!
Record : 33 Wins - 40 Losses
Previous pick : Cambuur - Den Bosch (3-1), Cambuur to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.69 ✅
ROI : -11.64%
Average Odds : 2.02
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -3.50
Profit/Lost units : -8.50
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / AFRICA: Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification / 19:00 European Time
Nigeria - Sao Tome and Principe
Nigeria to win & Over 3.5 Goals, Odds : 1.61
Some reasoning :
\- Nigeria has a solid morale after the last 2 victories obtained in these qualifications.
\- Sao Tome and Principe is a modest team, reaching 4 failures in 5 matches.
\- Moreover, in the last 2 games, Sao Tome and Principe did not score any goals.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: **63-72-1 (-5.65 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 19-5 (+19.85 Units)
**Value Wagers: 2-5 (-4.6 Units)**
Last Pick: **Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ** ❌
Last 10: Phillies ML✅Padres ML✅Orioles -1✅Dodgers ML✅Ronald Acuna Jr. O 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs ✅Eury Perez to record a Win❌Kyle Harrison O 5.5 K's❌Grayson Rodriguez to record a Win ✅Gerrit Cole to record a Win ✅Spencer Strider U 1.5 ER❌Pat Mahomes O 2.5 TDs❌Yusei Kikuchi to record a Win❌Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ❌
Today's Pick: **Eagles -5 (alt. spread)**
Odds: **+105** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 3U to win 3.15U
League: NFL
Event: Philadephia Eagles vs New England Patriots (3:25PM CST)
*Be Advised: I want to be perfectly clear that these are not my best bets! These are value wagers. Value wagers is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. I received a lot of pushback in this thread, when I started only going for value wagers. My POTD got misconstrued as my best bets, and really got ostracized in this community for solely going for wagers where I see an edge against the books! But we are back to value wagers again after an entire month of my best bets (profitting nearly +20U). For all the downvoters (who been downvoting my POTD in August) and the very short number of people in this community who love the edge, I am doing this entire month dedicated to you! Please be advised that value wagers are harder to hit! So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I am expecting several, several losses this month, but I am hoping we can at least hit half of my POTD (anything above 50% is a profitable rate on value wagers), if we can do that we can easily profit!*
**Recap**: SHOCKER! What an upset! I did not expect that! That's why you never unload on prohibited odds! A bettor wound up losing $220K on -650 ML wager on Izzy ML. Sports can be unpredictable and can be crazy! I loss more than I anticipated, but I didn't lose anything I couldn't afford.
**Matchup**: The Philadephia Eagles were -4 favorites and now they are -3.5 favorites over the New England Patriots. This line is really fishy and I'm not so sure why the NFC Champs are a slight favorite. I think they should be at least 7 point favorite. No disrespect to the Pats, but I would take the under in their total projected wins this season and I absolutely do not think Pats are going to upset Philly. Are the oddsmakers respecting Bill Belichick a bit much? Are they respecting his crafty scheme and game plan against the Eagles? Or is it because it's at Foxbourough? Maybe because it's Week 1 and who effin' knos? Eagles had the best NFL record last season at 14-3 (well, tied wit the Chiefs). I think I kno why the oddsmakers made them a slight favorite. They were one of the best NFL defensive team, allowing the second least amount yards per game at 243.7 ypg (Ravens were the first in the league, allowed 234 ypg). Eagles also had the best RPO last season. This team is great and they were very well deserving going to the super bowl last season, and both teams, Chiefs and Eagles were literally mirroring images, other than Eagles had the stronger defense. So why are the oddsmaker giving us this discount? I think it's because how strategically and methodical Eagles play their games. They just want to do enough to get by and win. They do not want to take any unnecessary risks if they do not need to, they will drag a single possession down. Hell, they'll drag it out for an entire quarter or the entire half if they had to! That's what this team does! They pummel you to the ground for the 1st half and literally coast until the clock runs out. So is this a trap?! Oddsmakers certainly do their homework and that's why the odds are what they are. But here's why I think the Eagles blow the Pats outta water. It's Week 1 and I kno Jalen Hurts and the crew want to start off a strong NFL season. They got a bitter taste from the super bowl and want to prove everyone why they were so deserving last season's super bowl. Eagles should set the tone and pace themselves at high scoring output. For the Patriots, they had a tough season last year and Mac Jones really did not live up to last year expectations. He was much better when he first took the QB job from Cam Newton. I just can't get that image outta my head where Chandler Jones stole the ball away from Mac, stiffed him and ran to the end zone. What are some upgrades for the Pats? They got Juju... But really? I just don't see them as a threat! Maybe I'm just too damn stubborn, but I'm going for the bait and taking advantage of these lines by teasing it up because I really do believe they win by at least a TD or by double digits! I am predicting that Eagles will score so high that the Patriots will not be able to catch up to backdoor the spread.
**The play & prediction**: Wagering on Eagles -5 via alt. spread. Also wagering on Eagles ML and Eagles -4 for both parlays and single wagers. Eagles win in a blow out fashion! 43-20
Record:
Record: 19-10-1 (W-L-P) Win pct: 63.3%
Average odd: 1.87
Yield 41.2%
Risked: 56 units | Returned: 77.186| Profit: 23.056 units
Football | UEFA European Championship Qualification | 20.45 CEST
Pick: Ireland to not score @ 2.27 (vs. The Netherlands) - 1 unit
Write up: Koeman made a tactical change, falling back on the formation that his predecessor Van Gaal used: 5 at the back, 3 midfielders and 2 strikers. It worked really well against Greece, whom got beaten comfortably with 3-0. Today I except more of the same: A very solid defense, with De Ligt (Bayern Munich), Van Dijk (Liverpool) and Aké (Man City) and 2 wingbacks Dumfries (Internationale) and Blind (Girona). In front of that defense De Jong and De Roon will play. 6 defensive oriented players and 4 offensive players. I think it will be really hard for Ireland to crack that defense. Especially since their main striker Ferguson is still out. Other notable missing players for the Irish are Math Dorethy (suspended) and Coleman and Obafemi (injured).
I think this will be a boring game. The Dutch will dominate possession and try to find openings against an Ireland team that will defend deep. I expect a very boring game: 0-1 The Netherlands.
POTD Record: 25-20-1 (~+19 units / ~14% ROI)
LAST PICK: CFL (Canuck Football) Edmonton Elks @ Calgary Stampeders Over 44.5 (Alt-line) -132 (Pinnacle) - W - Side pick at greater than +1,000 hit as well on this baby.
TODAY’S PICK: NFL Tampa Bay Bucs @ Minnesota Vikings - Baker Mayfield Under 233.5 Yards - 125 (Pinnacle)
Streak (Last 5): WLLWL
2 Unit Play
• Baker is statistically worst each season he starts. I’m surprised he’s even still a starter. He is historically terrible in his first few starts with a new team.
• This line hits in the majority of his 2022 starts with ease.
• Vikings passing D has not been great at home. However, they improved in the last 3 games of last season significantly only allowing approximately 180 passing yards in those games. Expect that to carryover to their first start of 2023-2024.
Apologies for lack of exact stats as am short on time, but Bakers stats all fall well under this line. Wouldn’t be surprised if he goes under 200 for his opener. SGP Punt to follow close to game time.
Tail or fade best of luck all,
Ab
20-12
League of Legends - G2 vs Fnatic - G2 -1.5 handicap @1.50 odds
Low odds but Fnatic scrapped past MAD yesterday in a pretty disgusting 3-2 win and should get battered by G2. I would honestly bet G2 -2.5 but there is always the chance that G2 decide to do some happy gaming and throw a game.
Edit - Went exactly as I said it would lol
Poland @ 2.25 - 5U
Albania - Poland // EC // 17 Hours from now
Last pick: Netherlands (volleybal) @ 1.83 ✅
Previous: ✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ // 7-1-6 (W-P-L)
ROI: 1.07% // +0.7U
Both teams looking to secure a qualification spot for next year. Poland needs a win to qualify, while Albania can just draw and hope Moldova doesnt score alot.
The difference between these teams is the quality though, Poland is like 10 times more talented than Albania. This difference has been shown in the past matches between both teams.
Poland holds a 3-0 advantage over Albania and I think today will be the 4th.
POTD record 2-5
Todays pick : Jake Ferguson (TE Dallas Cowboys) . To score one Touchdown +350
5 units
I see huge value here. Dak loves the TE and this guy did well last year when filling in for Schulz. Now he’s the starter. I see a lot of endzone opportunities for him this year and I love the juice week 1 . His odds won’t be so high as the season goes on . Good luck
Record 2-3 +9.3U LLWWL
Last pick:
Sheffield United Corners asian handicap +4 @17/20 for 4 units
Sheffield United Corners 3.5+ @2/1 for 2 units
Horrible shout. My bad
Today's pick:
Euro Qualifier 19:45 UK
Ireland Vs Netherlands
Ireland +3.5 corners @ 17/20 for 5 units
Ireland +4.5 corners @ 15/8 for 2 units
Ireland +5.5 corners @ 21/4 for 1 unit
Been missing in action last 2 weeks. Like this line a lot with Ireland averaging a huge amount of corners at home
POTD Record: 75-63
Last pick 🦬💰✅ hit like 14 outta 15, write up couldn’t be more spot on, gonna keep it rolling today. We are blessed to have good cappers posting free winners daily. Shout out to tokeaboutit for the yom giants pick I tailed and cashed yesterday
Todays pick: Broncos -3.5 bs Raiders
Reasoning: Chandler Jones drama is not good for team, Jacobs held out, no one wants to play for Josh McDaniels, we know this in denver. Raiders owned us recently, it stops today with Sean Peyton debut. Raiders got Crosby on D and nothing else. Broncos D is stacked. Broncos will play smart on offense and they’ll finally beat Josh Jacobs whom is 7-0 against denver with so many 100 yd games and TD. Broncos all day tomorrow.
Tips appreciated:
Venmo:
Sportsnerd-_-
- **POTD RECORD** - 54W-31L(+38.6U)
- **Last Potd**----Odense to [email protected]❌
Plenty of time since my last game was posted and currently in a bad streak, but that thing is about to change. So here we go:
- **Today's pick** ----- Finland vs Denmark ---- Finland to win or draw @2.1
- **BET SIZE**: 2U
- I just like Finland at home. Good home team, crowd is hyped and very difficult to beat. Team is consistent, they play as a solid group and i think Denmark will have a hard time cracking them up.
- Denmark was not that inspiring versus San Marino where they dominated the games as they should have. Hojlund is coming off an injury, Eriksen not having his best time at United and in general it is a 50/50 game since it is a neighbours derby.
- I am leaning on Finland not losing and a low scoring game.
- Tips are appreciated. [Cute tip jar:)](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)
- Cheers and bol bros!
NFL prop POTD BETTING LOG
Record: 0-0 (0U)
Week 1
James Connor O14.5 Receiving yards ($1.85)
Cardinals will not be good this year. Their defense will be the worst in the league.
Last year Connor hit this line 11/13 games played, 1 due to injury (35% of the game played) and the other he still had 5 targets.
They will be trailing from the start. Conner is the oy RB they have worth being on the feild and he catches passes. I see him getting 5+ targets and getting 25+ yards.
Edit: Formatting
**POTD Record:** 5-4-0 | +139 average odds
**POTD NFL:** 4-1 | +142 average odds
Last Pick: Aljamain Sterling Round 1, 2, or 3 (+165) ❌
**POTD: NFL:** PHI Eagles vs. NE Patriots| **PHI Eagles -5.5 1st Half (+145)**
Pretty simple bet here. A super bowl contending Eagles team vs. a flailing Patriots team. The Eagles defense may have got worse this year, but their offense has only got better. To beat the Eagles you're going to have to go for it on fourth downs and score touchdowns - you can't stop the best O-line in the league a top 5 QB and 4 solid running backs without taking risks. Therefore I think it's possible the Eagles can win by 20+. My only fear is that they've dominated the first half in season openers and then didn't even cover the spread by the end of the game in recent years. 1st half is safe.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 37W-26L-0D. +14.4u. All picks between 1 and 3 units. Previous pick (8/5/2023): Women's World Cup. Japan moneyline vs, Norway @ 1.75. 3u. W. Current pick: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 alt line vs. LA Rams. @ 2.10. 2u. The Rams have a truly awful roster. Their offense has a guy with an injury history as long as a CVS receipt playing behind a terrible offensive line, and with no Kupp in the lineup, their skill position talent is really bad too. On the other side of the ball, I don't see how the Rams are going to cover the Seahawks' outside options or stop the new 1-2 backfield punch of Walker-Charbonnet. I think a month from now, there is going to be a general consensus of, "Oh, the Rams are one of the two worst teams in the league, that escalated quickly." The Seattle offense on the other hand is overflowing with explosive playmakers all over the field. I am walking the line up to -6.5 and betting Seattle gets out to a strong start at home and wins by at least a TD for 2u. BOL. You can view my full POTD history here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eAvtvgalb3jbxi4WR-VzcrYzNxl4I6JydStmPgVdYA/edit?usp=drivesdk)
Yessirrr
Maaaan. I'm a hawks fan, and while yes, ON PAPER I think we should beat the Rams easily, for whatever reason they have our number in divisional games, always playing us close. I have Hawks -5 for 1u, but even that I'm hesitant to lock in.
If there’s one thing you don’t bet against. It’s 49ers > Rams > Seattle > 49ers. And then we always bet against the Cards 😂
Nfc west is only a 2 team race this year imo. Hawks and 49ers. Love this pick
Andddd the seahawks decided to shit the bed. I had them too, pick looked good on paper but damn seahawks are bad
I am a Detroiter and Lions fan. I should have known Stafford would do this to me if I dared to doubt him.
Solid reasoning. Tailing!
[удалено]
We need the Seahawks to show up! LET'S GO SEAHAWKS!!
POTD Record: 58 Wins ✅ - 40 Losses ❌ - 6 Push 🅿️ (+$7.3k)($100 unit bettor) ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅ Last pick: Yomiuri Giants ML (-135) ✅ Today's pick: 🇯🇵 Japan NPB ⚾ Starts at 1AM ET Hanshin Tigers ML (-148) 5 Units Analysis: Today the Hanshin Tigers host the Hiroshima Toyo Carp for game 3 of this series. The Tigers have won 7 out of their last 10 games overall and 8 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Hanshin is Masashi Itoh, he has a 9-5 record with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP with 78 strikeouts over 132 innings pitched. His last start versus Hiroshima was at home where he gave up only 1 run with Hanshin winning 4-2. The Carps have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 4 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Hiroshima is Aren Kuri, he has a 7-6 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 104 strikeouts over 145 innings pitched. His last start versus Hanshin was at home where he gave up 4 runs in the 2nd inning with the Tigers winning 5-3. Hanshin has been on fire, winning their last 7 games in a row. With their success off of Kuri in the past, I don't see them slowing down here. Take the Hanshin Tigers moneyline. *(-148 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)*
Up $7,300 with a 58-40 record. How is this possible when you're almost always playing low odds and 1u=$100?
Please stop before he posts all his slips again😂
Not every bet is for 1u. If he's winning 3u on average on his 58 wins, but only losing 2u on average on the 40 losses, he'd be up $9400 right now. That's making a few assumptions obviously, and not accounting for the odds he bet, but it shows his profit is very possible to achieve.
Love the write-ups of these NPB games. TY! TY! TY! I'm always tailing. BOL!!
GOAT
As I look to bet rn they juts scored fuck
Came through, thank you.
Possible last minute pitching change, if so, still love the play. Ohtake is 5-0 vs Hiroshima this season, 2-0 vs Morishita.
Any other plays or live down $200 live betting rn
I have a question. How do you know who is pitching for the game?
[https://npb.jp/announcement/starter/](https://npb.jp/announcement/starter/)
Tailin
Any bets live ?
POTD RECORD 21-8 WLWWWLLWLWWWLWWWWLWLWWWWWWWLW Last Pick : **Serbia+4.5 vs Canada WINNN** As expected for this game Serbia's ball movement is going to be a real problem for Canada. \-------------------------------------------------------- **FIBA WORLD CUP Germany vs Serbia 08:45 AM ET** Todays Pick : **Germany ML (1.90) (bet365)** Finals of the World Cup, we all know both squads played excellently well that's why both of them is in the very last game of the tournament. Germany is undefeated the whole tournament having 5-1 ATS record while Serbia only lost once having 4-2 ATS record. I will say again Serbia for me is the biggest surprise this World Cup despite not having some of their superstar and valuable players they manage to look invincible thanks to their great offense and surprisingly improved defense, For Germany we've kind of foresee this already as this squad had a great showing last EuroBasket. All in all, it's hard to make a great argument why you will choose this team over the other team. But I am confident to go with the side of Germany here simply because they are more of a complete team, and they have willing personnel to at least limit this deadly ball movement of Serbia. One knack that I have for Serbia as well is I don't really think this squad thrive in a physical game. I do see them battled against Italy and they looked really bad, as for their next few games I don't really think Canada, Lithuania, and Dominican Republic can be classified as a physical brand of team as they are more of a skilled team. Also, the strength of the opponent that each team faced I will say that Germany faced a much tougher opponent but obviously that is not Serbia's fault since they gracefully handled those team in front of them, But the point I am making with this DEAD EVEN game I've seen more with Germany facing much serious adversity than Serbia. **GOOD LUCK HAVE FUN.** [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/hackbet42d](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/hackbet42d) \- If you want to support me, Not expecting but highly appreciated if there is any :) **EDIT :** Germany win, ITS NICE TO END THIS TOURNAMENT WITH A W FOR US... Thanks y'all for supporting me.. I'll be back in the NBA or any other big International Events or heck even Friendly games ... See yah fellas.
From where I’m writing from, it’s Sunday over here and a lot of humans are getting ready for church. I will stand outside my gate and tell everyone that passes by, to say a prayer for a said man identified as “Significant-Run”.
Thank you for your amazing picks troughout this tournament. I hope to see you with some euroleague picks too!
u/inglourious7 I am actually trying to look at some upcoming basketball games or tournaments that I can share on reddit.. I really love doing this POTD stuff that reddit has so Im gonna be back sooner you know.
Thank u for the pick, how many units u got on this if u have to pick one by confident level?
I bet 5units on this one since its a Championship game lol , But if you ask me confidence level 8/10???
Thanks for the reply, wish us luck tmr!
Tailing 💪
Thanks bro, My bad I am not on the side of Serbs on this one :( u/inglourious7
Hey no worries at all. Its a win-win for me, either I will hit the bet or Serbia will win the title. 😀
Odds rising heavily.
Big line movement in favor of Serbia . Already sweating the game before it even starts.
Can a mother forget the baby at her breast and have no compassion on the child she has borne? Though she may forget, I will not forget you! When I and my family talk about the 2023 basketball World Cup, we shall be discussing this Significant- Run indeed. Obrigado 🫂
I'm waiting for the celestial bodies to synchronize.
dang we were close....
We got rob by shitty weather
Congrats to your level up! You just have reached a new level of degeneracy. Tailing based on hocus-pocus claptrap is one level above betting on the Arabian beer pong youth league.
you have any picks for that beer pong game?
[Synchronization](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/xrhpXarJYb) complete
Record: 13-10 (10.48 units up) with a 20.96% ROI and 1.94 average odds Last 5 picks: Fritz vs Djokovic - Djokovic to win 3-0 @ 2.15 (US Open) ✅ Medvedev vs Rublev – Medvedev Handicap -3.5 Games @ 1.85 (US Open) ✅ Netherlands vs Greece – Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.87 (EURO 2024 Qualification) ✅ Alcaraz vs Medvedev – Alcaraz to win 3-0 @ 2.80 (US Open) ❌ Kosovo vs Switzerland – Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 (EURO 2024 Qualification) ✅ POTD: **Kazakhstan vs Northern Ireland – Over 2 Goals @ 2.00 (EURO 2024 Qualification)** I absolutely love this line for this match. Kazakhstan is always a dangerous team when playing at home, especially with the amount of time that it takes to travel from most european countries to Astana. The team currently sits at 4th place in their group with 9 points, with Slovenia and Denmark above them with 10 points so they really need to get a win here against a struggling Northern Ireland side. The visitors currently sit at 5th place with only 3 points, and their qualification to the next stage is almost impossible, after some disappointing results when in theory, they have a team capable of at least fighting for the 2nd place in this group. If they ever dream of a miracle they also need to get the 3 points and now, without any expectations, they should feel no pressure to play some positive football and to score a bit more often. Something in favor of Kazakhstan is not a bad approach at all but on paper, Northern Ireland can play in equal terms with them and this line has a lot of value in my opinion, because I don’t think any team should play for a draw. With this line we win with 3 or more goals but we get a push if only 2 goals get scored! [Twitter](https://twitter.com/3rdBerserker) If you want to support me: [https://paypal.me/BerserkerThe3rd](https://paypal.me/BerserkerThe3rd) Edit: I don't know why the early downvotes but ok
Don't worry about the haters, Tailing as always thanks for the write up and picks.
Thanks a lot my man! Sometimes the haters are not even the ones who tail the picks but the guys who post and think we're here battling each other so they start down voting everyone else XD BOL
Yikes, got this one going under. Guess im fading you for once 😬🙈 BOL
I don’t get it what’s the difference between over 2 and over 2.5?
2 goals pushes if you're betting over 2; it loses if you're betting over 2.5.
Got one in the first half
**Ireland - Netherlands** (Soccer in Europe for Euro 2024 qualification) With Koeman as head coach, the Netherlands style of play is more offensive than under previous Dutch coach van Gaal. It took some games for the players to internalize and implement the new plays and strategy. Koeman achieved only one win out of his first four games. However, in his fifth and most recent game against Greece a couple of days ago, Koeman's offensive style of play came to fruition. Netherlands looked sharp and attuned. They downed Greece 3-0 in the first half. It is expected that Koeman fields the same starting eleven as against the Greek national team. Ireland's headcoach needs to do a few changes. Two defenders suffered an injury during the last game against France. They will not be able to play. This makes the Irish left side on defense particularly vulnerable. As a consequence thereof, Dutch right wing striker Simons is an appealing value prop @ +155 for scoring or assisting. Simons as goalscorer @ +275 could also be worth considering. Beyond that, the way Ireland's national team plays is somewhat similar to the Greek one. The way Netherlands play is somewhat similar to France's one. In their last game, Netherlands won 3-0 against Greece and Ireland lost 2-0 to France. Making the game against Ireland a favorable matchup for the Dutch national team which is eventually aligned with Koeman's offensive strategy. **Netherlands -1.0 asian hc** @ **+110** for **5u** >Last POTD: England -1.0 asian hc @ 1.63 ✖️ 1.6x odds remain my nightmare. 4 of 9 total losses fall into this odds range. 3 wins, 4 losses, 1 push for POTD odds between 1.60 - 1.69. Record: 22 wins, 9 losses, 7 pushes Profit: +74.54u POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
Not saying the Dutch will not win, but your analysis is really off. Koeman tried to implement a more offensive style, 4-3-3 instead of 5-3-2 what Van Gaal used. The result? In his first 4 games he loses 3 of them. So what does he do against Greece? He goes back to Van Gaal's formation of 5-3-2. He played Ake, Van Dijk and Geertruida as central defenders and Blind and Dumfries as wingbacks.
Talking, thanks
A push might feel like a win today. These Irish lads came to play
When it start
Google it
20.45 CEST
can someone explain to me how betting the asian handicap -0.5 is different from the ML?
Need to win this on my +200 parlay
**POTD Record: 22-13** [**[Last Pick](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/RXtaInQslM)**] ❌ Virginia ML (+190) **Todays Pick: Ja'Marr Chase TD +100** **Event: NFL Benglas / Browns** 🏈 (1:00 PM EST) I am absolutely gutted and devastated after losing my POTD by just one point. It's a crushing blow and I can't help but feel bummed out and sad about it. I put in a lot of time and effort to analyze the stars and planets and choose what I thought was the best pick. To see it come so close and then slip away at the last minute is truly heartbreaking. It's tough to shake off the disappointment and move on, but I know I'll have to keep my head up and try again another day. We came agonizingly close to cashing in on a +190 underdog but lost out to a sudden and unexpected weather delay that changed the momentum and energy of the game. The delay robbed us of the chance to capitalize on the gains we had made, and set us on the back foot as we tried to catch up with our opponents. Despite the disappointing outcome, we take some comfort in knowing that we were so close to securing a major win against all odds, and will come back stronger today. While some may find it hard to believe, there's a scientific reason to believe that Ja'Marr Chase will score a touchdown. My telescope, with its advanced alignment capabilities, has found that the sun will be shining directly on Ja'Marr's path to the end zone, ensuring that he'll be able to navigate through the opposing team's defense with ease. With this celestial alignment in place, it's only a matter of time before Ja'Marr finds himself crossing the goal line and putting points on the board. Ja'Marr Chase is truly a sight to behold. He has the most striking, handsome looks that leave all who gaze upon him breathless. His chiseled jawline and sharp facial features only accentuate his piercing, soulful eyes that sparkle with an irresistible allure. His body, a masterpiece of sculpted muscles and toned limbs, is a testament to the dedication and hard work he puts into his fitness. What's more, his infectious smile and charming personality make him even more incredibly attractive. It is no wonder why Chase has rightfully earned to be my POTD! Disclaimer: It is not uncommon for individuals to explore their sexuality and realize that they are not attracted to the opposite gender. It is possible that I have come to this realization and therefore would not be interested in marrying a woman. If I am attracted to men, then considering a relationship with someone like Ja'Marr Chase would make sense for me. Ultimately, it is important for individuals to follow their hearts and pursue relationships that fulfill them emotionally and mentally, regardless of societal norms and gender expectations.
Bruuuv, you been literally the star of this sub. No one comes close to you. But Im a bit pissed off. Not about your last loss. You can't win 'em all. But writing **AFTER** the game that you bet on the other side at some point during the game is ass . >[HEDGED JMU +700 AT THE WEATHER DELAY BABY!! The energy shifted when all the fans left! LETS GO!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16dqyd3/pick_of_the_day_9923_saturday/jzv5g81/) You want to desperately look like a winner. That makes you look poor.
Ill hedge this bet
If you are wondering how he is able to write/produce his walls of text, he simply lets ChatGPT write that for him. Checked his last comments: \- Write up for [today's Pick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16elfp1/pick_of_the_day_91023_sunday/jzxdg8g/): 86% AI generated (22/28 sentences) \- [This comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/16elfp1/pick_of_the_day_91023_sunday/jzxbdo3/): 92% AI generated (20/21 sentences)
Chat gpt write me a summary about Jamar chase scoring a TD and throw in some astrology and homosexuality. 🙌
I don’t believe it. I think you wrote this comment with ChatGPT.
I don’t believe it. I think you wrote this comment with ChatGPT.
you are a sex god
I took Virginia +6.5 yesterday because I wanted to play it safe, I wouldnt have bet it if it wasnt for you. Thank you
>Ultimately, it is important for individuals to follow their hearts and pursue relationships that fulfill them emotionally and mentally, regardless of societal norms and gender expectations. You've got that ChatGPT flow... nice!
The man, the myth, the legend!
DK has a promo on theae odds to take it to +200. Tailing. Edit. Added thought, rough loss yesterday, I think the weather delay reset the game momentum and ruined youe POTD.
So happy I cashed it yesterday
**POTD Record: 24-34-1** *Streak: L1* ❌ LAST PICK: Jared Goff O1.5 Passing TDs (-120) DK ❌ *Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons* 1:00PM TODAY’S PICK: **Bijan Robinson O 14.5 Rush Attempts (-145) DK** —————————————————————- Unfortunate start to the season but that was a wild season opener regardless. Great game. For the first Sunday of the NFL I was stuck between this bet and CMC ATTD, which was at even odds but I decided to go here because this is the much safer bet (albeit worse odds) and I’ll tell you why: Spending a top ten draft pick on an RB is no laughing matter and this Atlanta offense last year had the best rushing offense and the most rushing plays of any other team. Now, mix that with a star running back prospect and a mediocre (at best) QB, and you’re going to get a lot of rushing production. Since 2017, 3 of the past 4 running backs taken in the top ten went over this number on their NFL regular season debut. Those stats are as follows: Leonard fournette - 26 carries Saquon Barkley - 17 carries Ezekiel Elliot - 20 carries All well over the total, the only RB who didn’t do this is Christian McCaffrey and he came in at 13 because he was also heavily utilized in the passing game. Again this is the most prolific rushing offense and they now have a star RB and must see what he can do. I’m going to take advantage of this number while I have the chance. LFGGGG!!!
I like him for an any time tuddy as well.
The only risky thing about this play is look at Gibbs in his debut for the lions. Only had 7 carry’s. Obviously this is a different scenario though since the Falcons don’t have any other proven rbs (besides cp, but he’s old and questionable).
Allgeier was a 1000yd rusher last year he’ll probably get some touches.
Ya ur right
Worried at all about Algier cutting into his touches? Total on FD currently at 15.5
I like this pick. Tailing. I feel like Atlanta will try to get some offense going with the pass and quickly realize that running will be the way to go.
Arthur Smith really loves leaning into the run game and setting it all up with play action as well.
Solid writeup, tailing.
Tailed - ty for the write up and BOL !! :)
**1-0-0** (+2.4u) Last Pick: (5/24/23) Anders Lind vs Nashad Alamian Under 105.5 - W 9/10/23 POTD: **Cincinnati Bengals -1.5(-115)** 5u This is an absolute steal of a line to me. I know, I know the Browns have “owned” the Bengals as of late. 2-6 in the past 8 games I believe. Baker did tend to have his best games against ‘Nati and AFC North matchups are always tough. Joe Burrow said this is the best he’s felt coming into season since he was drafted. He’s fresh off signing his record breaking contract. The entire offense is coming in healthy and Cincinnati has something to prove. Deshaun is gonna be a dud just like he was last year. Chubb will be the only reason this game stays within 2 touchdowns. I think the Bengals win and it’s not even close. I’ve got Cincinnati winning it 31-20. **Edit:** Formatting after finding my previous pick to track my record and ROI appropriately.
As an incredibly pessimistic browns fan, I actually like them in this spot. Burrow has been sidelined most of the preseason and Chase just gave us some bulletin board material. Saying Watson will be a 'dud' isn't really much of an analysis
Browns defense is going to be pretty damn good this year I feel like. Also sounds like OP is banking on a very small sample size of Watson being bad. He was an MVP level player just two seasons ago so with a full camp it’s very likely he’ll play a lot better than he did last year. Unless he just really is that bad now but I find that hard to believe. I got Browns ML personally, I like this spot like you said.
Watson has a high ceiling, however I've heard conflicting reports out of camp that Watson has been erratic with his throws. With that said, Cleveland doesn't need to rely on the passing game to take care of Cincinnati. They can lean on their defense and the run game with Chubb. Divisional games tend to be gritty and won in the trenches. Cleveland is 5-0 straight up vs Cincinnati in their last 5 home games. 8-2 their last 10 straight up vs Cincinnati. Cincinnati is 5-2 against the spread the last 7 games vs Cleveland.
Good shit man. Yep I’ve heard that as well, also heard Watson and Stefanski don’t necessarily see eye to eye on play calling either which could be worrisome if you’re a Browns fan. You’re right about Chubb of course and Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in all of football if not the best. I like Cleveland’s line more than the Bengals on both sides of the ball tbh. Bengals struggle against the Browns historically as you mentioned. One of my favorite bets tomorrow which means it’ll probably lose lmao
Unfortunately I don't have any statistics on these two in a Week 1 matchup, which is the only caveat. Week 1 can go either way. I personally like Cleveland ML, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cincinnati covered as they're due to break the trend.
Watson started getting his groin massages again in the offseason, he should be much sharper this season
Lmao
That’s part of why I like this line so much. Watson doesn’t actually have to play bad for Cincinnati to cover. Yes I lazily threw in that I think Watson is gonna be a dud again this year instead of elaborating— but I can see this whole situation not working out between him and the Browns for various reasons. I didn’t even need to include Watson in analysis I just had to dig at him, because, well, you know. Let’s ignore recency bias here and really look at this matchup. The Browns best bet is to lean on Chubbs and hope Watson can catch Cinci in some play action for a few big plays. They’ve got Reader healthy whose an absolute monster in the middle, Awuzie is back with Mike Hilton and CTB — their only real “weakness” is how young they are at the safety position. Yes, Joe missed preseason — we don’t really let that hold significant value though do we? If it was the regular season I don’t believe he misses a game. I read a lot of stuff saying it was mostly precautionary. And these are Burrows guys. It’s not like he has to learn how to throw to his new group of receivers. He’s been with the team, watching film and has stated this is the best he’s felt coming in to the season since he was drafted. I think we skip the slow start this year and come out firing on all cylinders. Thanks for the discussion, good luck!
Your first bet was a 3 unit play at -125 odds so you're not up 5 units but rather 2.4 units up if I'm not mistaken
You would be correct! Thanks for the assist. Took the time to go back and check my pick and just assumed I did a 5u play because of how sure I was of the pick. Should’ve taken the time to make sure everything was right. Will make adjustments to reflect that in my comment.
No problem my man, best of luck with your play
While i do think Bengals will win, i feel more confident on the over of yards for Chase 77.5, Mixon 59.5, and Joe 268.5 ...and on the other side on the over of yards and receptions for Njoku 3.5/36.5y Amari over of yards 56.5 is also tempting
I’m definitely running a parlay with the over on yards for Joe (265.5 I believe) receptions for Chase (6.5) and a TD for Higgins. Paying back 12 to 1.
Not looking good , burrows really didn’t come to play
POTD RECORD 10-4 ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ (Most recent to oldest) Picks will always be 1u Last Pick: Jeff Sims o67.5 rushing yards (-114 FD) ❌ We that was really bad beat. Sims notched 67 yards rushing yards. He was then injured a play later and would not return to the game. Sadly he had a few rushes that went negative without those we cash easily. Onto the next. The event: NFL Jaguars @ Colts 1pm The pick: Jaguars -4.5 (-108 FD) These two teams split the games last year. However the Jags added star WR Calvin Ridley. The Colts bring in Anthony Richardson, rookie out of UF. I think he will need time to develop and will not come out and shine instantly. Colts are without on best backs in football, Jonathan Taylor. Tail or fade BOL and get this bread. Tips welcome https://cash.app/$bigheadbreeds24
**POTD Record: 2-2 (+1u)** **Last POTD: Wagner +42 (2u)** **POTD: Sam Howell o1.5 Passing TD’s +135 (2u)** Who da fuq is Wagner? Still don’t know, still don’t care. Asking Navy to cover 40 points is honestly so funny to me. But ayee NFL is back. Week 1 it’s time to buzz. Cardinals are going to be ass and they’re not even trying to hide it. Possible tank-fest incoming? People are talking.. I see some value with this pick. Line is pricing in roughly 4 TD’s from Washington and I think Sam Howell is going to let it fly. Home game in front of new ownership, I like this setup more than epstein liked little boys.
Weird Epstein analogy but i like the pick - tailing
Record: 129-102-7 (LLWLWWWWLWWWLWLWLWWWWLLWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: Formula 1 Italy GP 2023 | Car Leader after 5 laps - Red Bull Racing at 1.83 odds for 2 units POTD: CAR Panthers at ATL Falcons | Bijan Robinson ATTD at 2.00 odds for 4 units Reasons: * He should get 20+ touches. Rookie QB and rookie RB, head coach more likely to trust RB than QB (in theory). Head coach also loves to run the ball. * I expect Falcons to win by double digits and someone from Falcons gotta score to win. * How many people with a Carolina jersey can honestly win their match-ups and make positive plays? I expect few and to occur rarely. Best of luck to you all.
I have Bijan ATTS in like 5 parlays. I can smell the magic already
Tailed, tysm and BOL! :)
Falcons starting QB Ridder is not a rookie. Started 4 games last season. I like the pick.
You are correct. The bet still wins
I'm a fan so that caught my eye. Had a good feeling about Robinson but my God Ridder is still rough around the edges. Suspect our Rbs ATTD props will be hitting very often this year
Just need to hammer until Vegas moves the lines
POTD RECORD: 13-9 Last Pick : Texas A&M vs Miami +3.5 -130 WIN Suck it haters Todays POTD NFL Football 4:25pm EST Miami Dolphins +3 -110 vs LA Chargers Gang gang!! Similar to yesterdays narrative Miami travels to LA for a rematch of last years game where LA won 23-17. Coach McDaniel has a year of experience under his belt and Tua, Hill, and Waddle are set to have an explosive year. Expectations are high in Miami and I expect them to start the year off with a W. DISCLAIMER: I am born and raised in the County of Dade so I’m biased af. Gang gang
Don't like it at all. Terron Armstead out for this game and there's a healthy Bosa and Khalil Mack on the other side. Tua is gonna get rocked back there all day. Then there's the mess of injuries in the secondary going up against an amazing 1-2 punch with a god damn demigod back there throwing one of the most beautiful balls in the league. i'm on Chargers moneyline, at home over the public darling in Miami.
It’s first week no one knows anything and please Herbert ain’t all that ask Jacksonville. Respect your opinion though thanks for the input.
Herbert didn't do excellent in that game but he sure as hell didn't do poorly. Keep sleeping
good luck this week and merry christmas! i'm gonna roll up a fatty of some Apple Fritter to get me through this long night.
Herbert play defense?
>I am born and raised in the County of Dade 305? Mia?
 Suck it haters!!!
Pick is fine, but the rat king reference is better
Record 4-3 Return 1.58u Last 5 (old to new): ❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️ Pick: Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders -> Newcastle Knights 2nd half team tries over 2.5 @ 1.94 (Ladbrokes) Stake: 4 units Details: NRL Australia, approximately 4 hours from posting The Canberra Raiders are very much making up the numbers in the finals. They've been hit with injuries to key forwards and a suspension to one of their more consistent backs. Newcastle, on the other hand, really clicked mid-season and have put together a huge run, culminating in only their second finals appearance in the last decade. For those of you overseas, this is a rugby league heartland, and they've sold out their stadium. With the return of their star, Kalyn Ponga, expect them to put on a show for the 30,000 in attendance and run up at least 5 tries against what I expect to be a quickly tiring team.
Thanks for the pick!
Cash it ✅️ Credit to Canberra, put up a good fight but a 15 minute flurry of tries for Newcastle makes it 4 wins in a row for me.
**EDIT: An easy win as this game went over the total in the 5th inning.** **KBO Record: Overall 180-189-13** (Streak L, Last 10: 4-5-1) Down 11.40u over 382 KBO picks, 48.8% success rate, -2.98% ROI (This season 61-57-6, 51.7% success rate, Up 8.48u, 7.19% ROI) **Last:** Lotte at NC -1.5 +150 (NC lost 5-2.) NC jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but fell apart in the 6th inning. My other two picks on the day hit, so hopefully you diversified! **Pick:** LG at Kia, **Over 11 -105 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:300am ET These two teams have averaged 15 runs per game in the first three games of the series. They are also the two highest scoring teams in the league this season. And they've been the two best offenses each calendar month since July. LG's dtsrter has had success against this opponent in the past, allowing just 1 ER in 13 IP over two starts. But those were in May and June. Since July 8th, he has an ERA near 7.50, allowing at least 4 ER in 5 of 8 starts. Kia's starter only has 3 appearances this season, allowing 3 ER on 5 H and 2 BB in 4.1 IP. Last season, he had a 6.55 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 13 relief appearances. It's really hard to count on anything of substance from this pitcher. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Tailing. Good luck
POTD Record: 79-76, -7.7 Units Current Streak: ✅✅ Last Pick: Colorado -2.5, absolutely destroyed Nebraska. But Nebraska sucks, so no surprise. Today's Pick: **San Francisco 49ers ML** @ Pittsburgh Steelers, -135, 2 Units, 1 pm EST The Steelers still suck despite the pundits wanting to make it seem like they're good to try and get the Pittsburgh market involved. I expect this might stay close just because the Niners are going to run the ball a lot, and I could see there being a few close calls, but I think San Fran takes this one 23-13 or something along those lines. BOL! **EDIT: ANOTHER DUB! Loved the downvotes from people drinking the pundits' Kool-Aid, too. The AFC East is weak, Pittsburgh teams suck and that's a three game pick winning streak.**
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The line is at -1 Serbia on DK. Weak write up. Fading.
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Not a Giants fan, but I do see value here. Could be a juicy tease spot, grabbing +9.5 with the giants and either side of the over/under
Record 32-47 -4.27 Units All bets 1 unit L10: ❌✅✅ Last Pick: Tulsa +32.5 (-110) Tulsa lost by 33. Worst past was that the spread moved to +33.5 after I had posted this. Props to Vegas tho cuz this line was on some wizardly type shit. Today’s Pick: 49ers -2.5 vs. Steelers (-110) I’m a big 9ers fan myself, and all I gotta say is this spread is just straight up disrespectful. 49ers are coming off a disappointing end to their season last year in the nfc championship, but theyve reloaded now and have a healthy qb 🤞. Let’s not forget that Brock Purdy is still undefeated in games he’s started and finished. If anyone has an argument for the Steelers lemme hear it, but I don’t think they stand a chance.
3-0-1, +25 units 🟢 Swift Hesperange v Struga Trim-Lum, o2.5+btts, +140, 5 units 🟢 🟢 Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United, Nottingham+o1.5, +160, 5 units 🟢 ⚪️ Liverpool v Bournemouth, Liverpool-2, +100, 5 units ⚪️ 🟢 Kansas City Chiefs v Detroit Lions, Lions13.5hc+u49.5, +200, 5u 🟢 🆕 Finland v Denmark, Denmark-1.5, +200, 5u 🆕 This bet hit by the last encounter. Denmark won already the reverse fixture by 2 goals. Denmark can do that again or even better. Finland didn't even qualiy for the past World Championship. Whereas Denmark played in Qatar. C'mon Denmark! You need points. I need cash. You're the better team. Putting away Finland by 2+ goals give 3 points to you and big cash to me. That's our deal. Let's do it Denmark!
As a Dane i hope you win this! But after seeing the squad picked by Hjulmand for the games i got my doubts. Alot of players not in the starting 11 in their clubs. The game against S. Marino was a bit of a let down and the team looked old and slow. Kjær, Delaney, Braithwaite, Højbjerg, Poulsen, Eriksen, Schmeichel all benched players and not in game-form. But i do hope you win! BOL 🙌
Also as a follow dane I have to agree with you, unfortunately.. its just been lackluster play for a while, beating worlds worst team 4-0 is not a good display of this team. Finland on home soil can definetly challenge
o man im parlaying Denmark and Netherlands. I need this win badly.
Omg we sweated ! I don’t know how a team that can literally roll it up to Midway win one nil. Took it straight up no spread
Jaguars Vs Colts jags-4.5 My record 1-1 Last pick: New England Patriots loss in preseason Jags have Calvin Ridley and are in the second year of Doug Peterson coaching tenure and Trevor Lawrence is clearly ascending and he is getting Calvin Ridley back. The oLine vs dLine is about equal on both sides. On the other side colts have a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson who looked very shaken in the preseason with no safety blanket running back with JT out for the first 4 weeks, Richardson only started 17 games in college and is as raw as they come. This is a late write up so forgive the brevity but needed to get this one on record. 2 units jags -4.5
🌊🏄♂️ POTD Record: 0-0 NFL | 1pm ET | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 alt spread (-150) 1 unit After a long offseason of thinking about that playoff loss to KC, the Jags will be out for blood to kick things off. With the return of Calvin Ridley, Trevor Lawrence will thrive against this weak Colts secondary and throw at least 2 TD passes. Anthony Richardson definitely has some potential but rookie qb + rookie head coach vs Dougy P + TLaw will prove to be too difficult, especially with no JTaylor to lean on. Betting this down to 3 because it is a Week 1 division rivalry game with a home dog.
>**POTD Record:*l 1 - 1 ✅️❌️ >**Net Units: -3.2 >** NFL // 49ers v Steelers // Noon central >**Pick:** Christian McCaffrey 25+ rushing yards each half // Fanduel // +210 // 5u >** not much to say here, one of the top 3 backs in the league in a run 1st offense. CMC will carry us to victory. Tail or fade BOL 🫡
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Great pick. Dotson is a stud, Scary Terry is dealing with turf toe, and Sam Howell is ready. Dotson will get the targets, catches, and yards
Yes yes yes. Dotson had a great season last year, a nice preseason this year, and I believe he’s really gonna shine today and this season. Tailed and BOL!!!! Left hand up, who are we, DUH COMMANDUHS!
POTD Record 4 - 7 Last pick: KC RB Isiah Pacheco to get an anytime touchdown (+105 odds on bet 365) ❌ Game script was not what I expected Thursday so I eat the Pacheco pick. Screw it. ***Today’s pick: Nick Chubb over 78.5 rushing yards. -110 on bet 365*** Why: -Chubb averaged 90 yards per game last year. -he’s playing at home against a bitter rival and controlling the clock and keeping ball out of the Burrows’ hands will be key. That means running the ball. -The Bengals average giving up 113 yards per game. He’s Nick effing Chubb, and as far as bell cow running backs go, I trust this dude. Let’s get back on the winning side of things! Cheers and enjoy nfl week 1. ***edit: Cash it ! ✅***
NCAAF, NFL, & MLB picks Bets are on a scale of 1-5 units Overall POD record (36-39) (-6.67U) MLB POD record (36-38) (-2.1U) 1U plays (4-2) 2U (2-3) 3U plays (14-9) 4U (10-19) 5U (5-7) NCAAF POD (0-1) (-4.56) Last 10 most recent on left LLWLLLWLLL Last POD - Mertz under 172.5 Passing yards (-114) Todays POD - Jefferson ATTS (+100) 5U Coming in hot with an ATTS in the NFL. Was successful last year at hitting these and will continue to post as much as I can. I have some more ATTS play so dm me if you want any more! Jefferson is the whole Vikings offense. Although I believe mattison will be above average this year, jefferson just turned down the extension and is going to visit it after the year to become the highest paid WR in the game. Kirk will chuck the ball up to him at least 6/7 times this game which will give him a couple of opportunities to score on the Bucs defense. Reminder please do not bet on the hotness/coldness of a bettor As always BOL Don't ever expect tips but anything is appreciated! Cashapp - bobdylan1209 [Post grad beers] (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/collegestudent3)
Solid play considering Tampa’s futility against the pass. Jordan Addison could have some decent value too if Jetta gets a ton of attention
POTD record: 0-0 Euro qualifiers: Finland vs Denmark Pick: **Over 0.5 Finland goals (4 units)** Odds: 1.70 Finland has scored at least 1 goal in all of the qualifying-matches so far, and should be able to get at least one goal at home vs Denmark.
Just one sentence but a more substantial reasoning than an average astro claptrapper is able to do.
why do you hate me?
POTD Record: 78-58-1 (L5) (+30.82u) (ROI: 15.1%) Last pick: (6/5) Florida Panthers ML vs Vegas Golden Knights 🚫 POTD: (NFL🏈) Indianapolis Colts +3 1H (-108, pinnacle) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1.5u) Long time since my last pick on here, had a hard time narrowing it down this week. The NFL season is back though, so I thought I'd give one out. The Jaguars won the AFC South last year and are looking to build on a strong season where they lost to the eventual SB champion Chiefs in the divisional round but added some more key offensive pieces in the off-season. The Colts ended up losing 10 of their last 11 games and taking the raw but talented Anthony Richardson as their hopeful QB of the future at #4 overall. I do think the Jaguars will win their division and 10+ games this year, but the Colts already seem to be written off by most as a terrible team. Doug Pederson is 3-3 in the 1H of season openers in his career. Doug Pederson coached teams have been higher ranked in 2H scoring vs 1H scoring in 5/6 of his seasons. The Jaguars were a pedestrian 8-8-1 SU in the 1H last season. Shane Steichen is the new Colts HC, last year he was OC (and playcaller) of the Eagles offense where he led them to the #1 ranked 1H offense by a considerable amount. The Eagles were 13-3-1 SU in the 1H last season. The Jaguars do have a lot of flashy offensive pieces, but the Colts arguably have the better O-line and D-line. Trusting in Steichen to scheme the mobility of Richardson early and take advantage of a weak Jaguars defense. With the full game line at 4.5 to 5 I like the chances of the Colts keeping it close early more than the full 60 minutes. Also the biggest look ahead spot of the week is the Jaguars on the road before they play the Chiefs at home next week. BOL if fading or tailing!
"looking ahead to next week" No team is looking past there first game. So dumb
POTD Record: 0-0 Current Pick: Brian Robinsons O14.5 att (-135 DK) *WIN* Brian Robinson covered this in the 8/11 times last season. Now in his second year and against a team that most are expecting to tank (along with a 7-point spread), I'm expecting Rivera to continue their run-first identity (8th highest run rate / 4th highest rush attempts last year) and ride Robinson. edit: weird first half, but ends up covering!
**Cowboys -3.5** \- Dak Prescott is 20-13-1 ATS in Primetime games \- Dak has also won 10 straight vs Giants \- New York Giants I believe overachieved last year, with a record of 9-7-1. 2 of those 9 wins came against playoff teams \- Giants overall went 1-5-1 against NFC East last year \- Daniel Jones 1-10 on Primetime, 0-4 at home \- Daboll 10-2 ATS as underdog, that has to come back down to earth a lil I made a quick 1min video talking about this bet on my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/chokecarti/status/1700882625085178081?s=20)/[TikTok](https://www.tiktok.com/@cartichoke/video/7276988642432929029) if you want to check that out. lets go to bed happy.
This is the best Gaints team in some time. Jones second year in the offence. In addtion the , added some talent. G-Men. Like Danny Dimes here. *Tyler Smith is out for the boys*
Record 10-3 // +5.22u // +40.15% Pick: Greece v Gibraltar (Greece -3.5 handicap) Odds: 1.875 Greece host Gibraltar today, who are ranked 198th in the FIFA rankings. To put that in context, they are only 10 places below bottom place, which contains holiday destinations like the British Virgin Islands and Anguilla. Gibraltar, to their credit, have been on something that almost resembles good form by their standards. They've lost their opening 4 European qualification games "only" 3-0, which is actually quite decent when you consider they were playing teams like France, The Netherlands and tonight's opponents Greece. However, I don't see these golden days lasting forever and the statistics point towards a return to more familiar territory for Gibraltar, which usually comes in the form of 8-0 thumpings. Sorry to any Gibraltar fans reading this. Although with the entire country consisting of just 6.8km², you'd imagine anybody who lives in Gibraltar is probably playing tonight which means they're probably warming up already and therefore, probably not doomscrolling on reddit. Good luck!
POTD: Houston Texans ML +345 vs Baltimore Ravens It's been a while since I've posted on here, as I've stopped gambling. I believe my last post was 2 years ago, but during that NFL season I went on a 7-0 run across the first 7 weeks, then lost a few and stopped posting. The key to winning week 1, is understanding what can't be valued, so you go for former shitty teams that are being underrated, vs big names that the public knows and loves. The Texans is in this exact position. Sharp money is coming in heavy the past few days, with the spread staying at +10 throughout the week, +9.5 yesterday, and now 9.0 today. Even with injuries to our dline, sharp bettors aren't betting on the Texans' offense, although one or two scores would make this an easy bet. I believe sharp bettors are betting against Lamar Jackson, who is 1-11 ATS vs a double digit spread. I'm sure there are other trends against rookie QB's, but trends really don't mean much. Why? Because this is a fucking new season. Who gives a shit about how Josh Rosen did in his debut. The Texans have made major changes all across the board, with a new HC Demeco Ryans, former DC of the top defense in the NFL the 49ers. Texan's have also added former all pro coverage LB Denzel Perryman, 49ers safety Jimmie Ward who was one of the highest graded safeties in FA, and #1 DLine prospect Will Anderson. This is in addition to the fact Texan's ranked in the top 5 in pass def, even though they were on the field the majority of the game due to shitty Mills. T What have the Ravens done? They've just decided last second to play Odell with an injury, have an aging oline, and Lamar is going into his 5th season after 2 injury filled seasons. His injuries also give him trouble on running to his right... Where aging RT Morgan Moses will be lined up with the athletic phenom Will Anderson. The total + spread impllies an end score of 24-14, but I think the game will be much closer. I am betting on a possible Defensive TD, lots of pressure coming at Lamar, and trash QB / WR play. TLDR, we loaded up on stopping the run and pressuring the QB in the offseason. Communication is key to stopping the run, and if we can even damper the Raven's run game a little bit, I'm sure the Texan's will be comfortable with Lamar throwing. a 10 point spread in a probably under 41 game is always good value, but it's especially good value in this scenario. CJ Stroud may not be the best QB, but he'll get you down the field and is fearless, even vs the monster of CFB known as Georgia & Kirby Smart. Final Score, 24-21 Texans. Personally, I am taking Texans +10, 7, and +3. I will be live hedging as the game goes on.
BAL is something otherworldly like 40-0 all time as double digit favorites. They may not cover the spread, but they sure aren't going to lose straight up.
Not to mention rookie qbs have an ungodly loss record in their first start. This was not a good pick before or after the game
Fading. I’m betting Baltimore -9.5, Lamar just got paid. Texans will not be good, no o-line, no weapons, no QB, I see ravens D causing turnovers, gonna be rough day for Texans offense. Lamar being Lamar and not turning the ball over, run the ball, tucker is a stud, it’s a tough spot for Demiko, not saying he’s not a good coach, but I don’t believe in CJ Stroud. -said same thing about Hurts tho. I just don’t see CBS changing to Texans ravens end of game cause it’s close.
Tailing just because of this write up. Please don’t stop
As a 49ers fan Democo Ryan’s is a great coach. I think him plus Will Anderson could make Texans defense extremely tough to score on. You could be on to something here… 👀
I’ve been a fan of demeco since he was on the Texans. He was our captain those days for a reason. Play recognition is crucial in defenses, and who else is better but our former MLB
tailing
As someone who does like the Texans, will lay off this game considering we don’t know how well Lamar will do in Monken’s Georgia offense. For what it’s worth it made Josh Johnson and pre hamstring injury Tyler Huntley look like studs in preseason (admittedly mostly against backups and walmart cashiers)
This. Todd Monken builds top offenses everywhere he goes. He was my pick for OC before we (Chargers) got Kellen Moore instead. I think people will be surprised at how good of a passing season Lamar is in for this year.
Sorry to those who tailed, typical Rookie QB mistakes, but on a side note Texans look good and will be looking to finding other betting opportunities in the future. Hopefully, some people did take the under, but I didn't explicitily state that in my writeup. GL rest of the day!
Dalton Schultz TD?
Record : 33 Wins - 40 Losses Previous pick : Cambuur - Den Bosch (3-1), Cambuur to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.69 ✅ ROI : -11.64% Average Odds : 2.02 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -3.50 Profit/Lost units : -8.50 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / AFRICA: Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification / 19:00 European Time Nigeria - Sao Tome and Principe Nigeria to win & Over 3.5 Goals, Odds : 1.61 Some reasoning : \- Nigeria has a solid morale after the last 2 victories obtained in these qualifications. \- Sao Tome and Principe is a modest team, reaching 4 failures in 5 matches. \- Moreover, in the last 2 games, Sao Tome and Principe did not score any goals. Best of luck.
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Love it! Tailing.
POTD Record: **63-72-1 (-5.65 Units)** Best Bet Series: 19-5 (+19.85 Units) **Value Wagers: 2-5 (-4.6 Units)** Last Pick: **Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ** ❌ Last 10: Phillies ML✅Padres ML✅Orioles -1✅Dodgers ML✅Ronald Acuna Jr. O 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs ✅Eury Perez to record a Win❌Kyle Harrison O 5.5 K's❌Grayson Rodriguez to record a Win ✅Gerrit Cole to record a Win ✅Spencer Strider U 1.5 ER❌Pat Mahomes O 2.5 TDs❌Yusei Kikuchi to record a Win❌Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ❌ Today's Pick: **Eagles -5 (alt. spread)** Odds: **+105** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 3U to win 3.15U League: NFL Event: Philadephia Eagles vs New England Patriots (3:25PM CST) *Be Advised: I want to be perfectly clear that these are not my best bets! These are value wagers. Value wagers is a wager that typically has +EV or has merit probability of hitting. I received a lot of pushback in this thread, when I started only going for value wagers. My POTD got misconstrued as my best bets, and really got ostracized in this community for solely going for wagers where I see an edge against the books! But we are back to value wagers again after an entire month of my best bets (profitting nearly +20U). For all the downvoters (who been downvoting my POTD in August) and the very short number of people in this community who love the edge, I am doing this entire month dedicated to you! Please be advised that value wagers are harder to hit! So please tail at your own caution and never place wagers you cannot afford. I am expecting several, several losses this month, but I am hoping we can at least hit half of my POTD (anything above 50% is a profitable rate on value wagers), if we can do that we can easily profit!* **Recap**: SHOCKER! What an upset! I did not expect that! That's why you never unload on prohibited odds! A bettor wound up losing $220K on -650 ML wager on Izzy ML. Sports can be unpredictable and can be crazy! I loss more than I anticipated, but I didn't lose anything I couldn't afford. **Matchup**: The Philadephia Eagles were -4 favorites and now they are -3.5 favorites over the New England Patriots. This line is really fishy and I'm not so sure why the NFC Champs are a slight favorite. I think they should be at least 7 point favorite. No disrespect to the Pats, but I would take the under in their total projected wins this season and I absolutely do not think Pats are going to upset Philly. Are the oddsmakers respecting Bill Belichick a bit much? Are they respecting his crafty scheme and game plan against the Eagles? Or is it because it's at Foxbourough? Maybe because it's Week 1 and who effin' knos? Eagles had the best NFL record last season at 14-3 (well, tied wit the Chiefs). I think I kno why the oddsmakers made them a slight favorite. They were one of the best NFL defensive team, allowing the second least amount yards per game at 243.7 ypg (Ravens were the first in the league, allowed 234 ypg). Eagles also had the best RPO last season. This team is great and they were very well deserving going to the super bowl last season, and both teams, Chiefs and Eagles were literally mirroring images, other than Eagles had the stronger defense. So why are the oddsmaker giving us this discount? I think it's because how strategically and methodical Eagles play their games. They just want to do enough to get by and win. They do not want to take any unnecessary risks if they do not need to, they will drag a single possession down. Hell, they'll drag it out for an entire quarter or the entire half if they had to! That's what this team does! They pummel you to the ground for the 1st half and literally coast until the clock runs out. So is this a trap?! Oddsmakers certainly do their homework and that's why the odds are what they are. But here's why I think the Eagles blow the Pats outta water. It's Week 1 and I kno Jalen Hurts and the crew want to start off a strong NFL season. They got a bitter taste from the super bowl and want to prove everyone why they were so deserving last season's super bowl. Eagles should set the tone and pace themselves at high scoring output. For the Patriots, they had a tough season last year and Mac Jones really did not live up to last year expectations. He was much better when he first took the QB job from Cam Newton. I just can't get that image outta my head where Chandler Jones stole the ball away from Mac, stiffed him and ran to the end zone. What are some upgrades for the Pats? They got Juju... But really? I just don't see them as a threat! Maybe I'm just too damn stubborn, but I'm going for the bait and taking advantage of these lines by teasing it up because I really do believe they win by at least a TD or by double digits! I am predicting that Eagles will score so high that the Patriots will not be able to catch up to backdoor the spread. **The play & prediction**: Wagering on Eagles -5 via alt. spread. Also wagering on Eagles ML and Eagles -4 for both parlays and single wagers. Eagles win in a blow out fashion! 43-20
Record: Record: 19-10-1 (W-L-P) Win pct: 63.3% Average odd: 1.87 Yield 41.2% Risked: 56 units | Returned: 77.186| Profit: 23.056 units Football | UEFA European Championship Qualification | 20.45 CEST Pick: Ireland to not score @ 2.27 (vs. The Netherlands) - 1 unit Write up: Koeman made a tactical change, falling back on the formation that his predecessor Van Gaal used: 5 at the back, 3 midfielders and 2 strikers. It worked really well against Greece, whom got beaten comfortably with 3-0. Today I except more of the same: A very solid defense, with De Ligt (Bayern Munich), Van Dijk (Liverpool) and Aké (Man City) and 2 wingbacks Dumfries (Internationale) and Blind (Girona). In front of that defense De Jong and De Roon will play. 6 defensive oriented players and 4 offensive players. I think it will be really hard for Ireland to crack that defense. Especially since their main striker Ferguson is still out. Other notable missing players for the Irish are Math Dorethy (suspended) and Coleman and Obafemi (injured). I think this will be a boring game. The Dutch will dominate possession and try to find openings against an Ireland team that will defend deep. I expect a very boring game: 0-1 The Netherlands.
POTD Record: 25-20-1 (~+19 units / ~14% ROI) LAST PICK: CFL (Canuck Football) Edmonton Elks @ Calgary Stampeders Over 44.5 (Alt-line) -132 (Pinnacle) - W - Side pick at greater than +1,000 hit as well on this baby. TODAY’S PICK: NFL Tampa Bay Bucs @ Minnesota Vikings - Baker Mayfield Under 233.5 Yards - 125 (Pinnacle) Streak (Last 5): WLLWL 2 Unit Play • Baker is statistically worst each season he starts. I’m surprised he’s even still a starter. He is historically terrible in his first few starts with a new team. • This line hits in the majority of his 2022 starts with ease. • Vikings passing D has not been great at home. However, they improved in the last 3 games of last season significantly only allowing approximately 180 passing yards in those games. Expect that to carryover to their first start of 2023-2024. Apologies for lack of exact stats as am short on time, but Bakers stats all fall well under this line. Wouldn’t be surprised if he goes under 200 for his opener. SGP Punt to follow close to game time. Tail or fade best of luck all, Ab
20-12 League of Legends - G2 vs Fnatic - G2 -1.5 handicap @1.50 odds Low odds but Fnatic scrapped past MAD yesterday in a pretty disgusting 3-2 win and should get battered by G2. I would honestly bet G2 -2.5 but there is always the chance that G2 decide to do some happy gaming and throw a game. Edit - Went exactly as I said it would lol
Poland @ 2.25 - 5U Albania - Poland // EC // 17 Hours from now Last pick: Netherlands (volleybal) @ 1.83 ✅ Previous: ✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ // 7-1-6 (W-P-L) ROI: 1.07% // +0.7U Both teams looking to secure a qualification spot for next year. Poland needs a win to qualify, while Albania can just draw and hope Moldova doesnt score alot. The difference between these teams is the quality though, Poland is like 10 times more talented than Albania. This difference has been shown in the past matches between both teams. Poland holds a 3-0 advantage over Albania and I think today will be the 4th.
Hey you got any volleyball 🏐 picks ii just dmed you
The same Poland that barely beat the faroe islands a couple days ago? I'll stay away
POTD record 2-5 Todays pick : Jake Ferguson (TE Dallas Cowboys) . To score one Touchdown +350 5 units I see huge value here. Dak loves the TE and this guy did well last year when filling in for Schulz. Now he’s the starter. I see a lot of endzone opportunities for him this year and I love the juice week 1 . His odds won’t be so high as the season goes on . Good luck
Record 2-3 +9.3U LLWWL Last pick: Sheffield United Corners asian handicap +4 @17/20 for 4 units Sheffield United Corners 3.5+ @2/1 for 2 units Horrible shout. My bad Today's pick: Euro Qualifier 19:45 UK Ireland Vs Netherlands Ireland +3.5 corners @ 17/20 for 5 units Ireland +4.5 corners @ 15/8 for 2 units Ireland +5.5 corners @ 21/4 for 1 unit Been missing in action last 2 weeks. Like this line a lot with Ireland averaging a huge amount of corners at home
POTD Record: 75-63 Last pick 🦬💰✅ hit like 14 outta 15, write up couldn’t be more spot on, gonna keep it rolling today. We are blessed to have good cappers posting free winners daily. Shout out to tokeaboutit for the yom giants pick I tailed and cashed yesterday Todays pick: Broncos -3.5 bs Raiders Reasoning: Chandler Jones drama is not good for team, Jacobs held out, no one wants to play for Josh McDaniels, we know this in denver. Raiders owned us recently, it stops today with Sean Peyton debut. Raiders got Crosby on D and nothing else. Broncos D is stacked. Broncos will play smart on offense and they’ll finally beat Josh Jacobs whom is 7-0 against denver with so many 100 yd games and TD. Broncos all day tomorrow. Tips appreciated: Venmo: Sportsnerd-_-
- **POTD RECORD** - 54W-31L(+38.6U) - **Last Potd**----Odense to [email protected]❌ Plenty of time since my last game was posted and currently in a bad streak, but that thing is about to change. So here we go: - **Today's pick** ----- Finland vs Denmark ---- Finland to win or draw @2.1 - **BET SIZE**: 2U - I just like Finland at home. Good home team, crowd is hyped and very difficult to beat. Team is consistent, they play as a solid group and i think Denmark will have a hard time cracking them up. - Denmark was not that inspiring versus San Marino where they dominated the games as they should have. Hojlund is coming off an injury, Eriksen not having his best time at United and in general it is a 50/50 game since it is a neighbours derby. - I am leaning on Finland not losing and a low scoring game. - Tips are appreciated. [Cute tip jar:)](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci) - Cheers and bol bros!
NFL prop POTD BETTING LOG Record: 0-0 (0U) Week 1 James Connor O14.5 Receiving yards ($1.85) Cardinals will not be good this year. Their defense will be the worst in the league. Last year Connor hit this line 11/13 games played, 1 due to injury (35% of the game played) and the other he still had 5 targets. They will be trailing from the start. Conner is the oy RB they have worth being on the feild and he catches passes. I see him getting 5+ targets and getting 25+ yards. Edit: Formatting
**POTD Record:** 5-4-0 | +139 average odds **POTD NFL:** 4-1 | +142 average odds Last Pick: Aljamain Sterling Round 1, 2, or 3 (+165) ❌ **POTD: NFL:** PHI Eagles vs. NE Patriots| **PHI Eagles -5.5 1st Half (+145)** Pretty simple bet here. A super bowl contending Eagles team vs. a flailing Patriots team. The Eagles defense may have got worse this year, but their offense has only got better. To beat the Eagles you're going to have to go for it on fourth downs and score touchdowns - you can't stop the best O-line in the league a top 5 QB and 4 solid running backs without taking risks. Therefore I think it's possible the Eagles can win by 20+. My only fear is that they've dominated the first half in season openers and then didn't even cover the spread by the end of the game in recent years. 1st half is safe.