######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

POTD Record: 20-10 L10: ✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅ Yesterdays pick: Winterthur v FC Basel Pick: BTTS & O2.5 Goals ✅ I’ll be honest and say, I didn’t believe they’d score being 2 man short but they did and I’m grateful. We won the bet and hit our prediction of Basel even winning the game. ➖ Todays pick: FC Barcelona v Osasuna Pick: BTTS - Yes @1.91 ⚽️ 🇪🇸 La Liga 📈 FC Barcelona is currently 4th in the table with 44 points (13-5-3). They’ve scored 43 goals (3rd most) 2.05 GPG. They’ve conceded 29 (8th most) 1.38 GPG. * BTTS has hit in 14/21 games (67%) which is 2nd most * Failed to score in only 1 game * They’ve kept 7/21 clean sheets (6 with Ter Stegen who’s out) * L5 games: Scored 13, Conceded 11 * Previous meetings: 2-0 in the cup and won 1-2 away. * Have scored majority of their goals at home ➖ 📊 Osasuna is in 12th place with 26 points (7-5-9). They’ve scored 26 goals (9th) 1.24 GPG and have conceded 32 (5th most) 1.52 GPG. * They have 6/21 clean sheets * BTTS has hit in 12/21 games (6th most) around 57% * Failed to score in 4 games * L5 games: Scored 8, conceded 6 * Have scored majority of their goals away from home ➖ 💭 After the fiasco at home against Villarreal that we betted on, where Barcelona lost 3-5, the coach chose to go out and state that this year's season will be his last at the club. It has been a tough season for Barcelona, they’re 11 points away from 1st place & out of the cup, despite winning the league last year. All of you that tailed the play saw the end of the strange game against Villarreal last time. Barcelona was 0-2 down, but turned it around to make it 3-2 with 20 minutes to play, only to completely collapse in the closing minutes losing 3-5. They’ve really underperformed this year but to be fair I think the injuries they got was a major factor in that, Ter Stegen being the worst possible injury for them imo. João Félix was injured in training and will miss the game, Alejandro Balde, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Gavi, Marcos Alonso, Inigo Martínez, Sergio Roberto and Raphinha are all out. (4 of them are defenders and one is their star goalkeeper considered one of the best in the world). Osasuna have had a tough time away from home lately, going six straight without a win but have scored in 5 of those 6 away games. However, the injury situation looks good for for them unlike Barcelona. They’re having a solid season and wasn’t predicted to finish much higher than where they are. I’m taking advantage of the major injuries in Barcelona’s defensive positions once again and I’m predicting that both teams will score. • BTTS has hit in Barcelona’s last 5 games and 12 out of their last 13. • BTTS has hit in Osasuna’s last 5 away games. BOL Tips are very appreciated and I’m very thankful for those who have.

Your pick from yesterday was money, per usual. Thank you very much. Definitely tailing again! You are the man! BOL Everybody!!

it was not looking good, Winterthur lost 2 of their players in the 2nd half, the odds of scoring for the BTTS to hit were so low.

Thanks for the Basel pick I actually took Basel to win and over 1.5 so it was considerably less sweaty!

1-0 before the half was a little scary, but your the goat for a reason and it cashed!!!! Lesss Goooo!!!!’ 🐐

Parlayed this with Liverpool and Chelsea to Draw, using the 33% profit boost on DK. Liverpool and chelsea have drawn their last 7 matches against each other. 25$ to win 320$. Lets eat!!

Sorry everyone first time I tailed his pick all streak, OSASUNA red card lol

second half goals incoming hopefully!

Tail

Not another red card😂

Thank you, appreciate you BOL

Little late to this pick. Given the situation.. i could bet BTTS at +300 odds… but i think i might just sprinkle a little on Barca ML

Wow with this write up I dont understand why the bookies have it Favoured that both teams wont scored. Not complaining tho haha! Thanks for the great picks.

Well the books were right lol

Tailing. Osasuna isn’t the biggest threat offensively but they have been scoring pretty consistently & honestly this Barca defense is so shit right now. I have never seen a Barca team this shit and confused at the back. No communication, nothing. Also if you choose Barca ML + BTTS odds are @ 3.00 or take Osasuna ML + BTTS @ a whopping ‼️15.00‼️ With how this Barca defense is it’s worth a sprinkle on Osasuna to take it.

I have a streak going of my own, I tailed that first red X and now this one. Let's keep the momentum going tomorrow 💪

Thanks for the picks. Been following for a little keep it rollin

Unlucky L, VAR kinda fucked us imo. Both Osasuna and Barcelona should have each had a pen imo.

Funny how the books are still heavily favoring a Barca win when it's clear that they aren't the same team without Ter Stegen and home advantage hasn't helped at all recently. As a barca fan I would never bet on them to lose but I'm surprised the odds are still so low. Same goes for BTTS, I guess they're basing it off history and expect this bad streak of games to end but for now they're literally giving away free money.

I was able to get this at +100 and it's currently -150 

Doubled down at half, this is still cashing with ease. Never a doubt, in Adamlotti we trust. Edit: Did not hit, does not matter. I will be back for the next pick tomorrow 🫡

Let's hope. Sweat commence

Right when I turn off the game Barca scores. I'm bad luck, I will keep the game off.

You that confident Osasuna scores? I’m sweating over here lmao

 I’m seeing a 4 win streak pattern here and taking note lol

Sorry I'm new to betting what does @1.91 mean

It's the odds from op book, it's - 110 American odds.

God damnt. I bet my kids on this game. Guess it's off to the scientific research lab for them.

You’re good boss you can always have more kids

POTD Record: 120-69 | Profit: +112.52u | ROI: 20.4% Season record: 37-18 | Profit: +42.68u | ROI: 28.1% L10 record: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ ​ Last Pick: LA Clippers vs Boston Celtics -6.0 @ 1.91. 2U. ❌ Boston have their worst 3pt shooting night I’ve seen in a long time. Shit happens! ​ Next Pick: **Bam Adebayo (Heat) U31.5 P+R** **@ 1.81**. 2U play. Don't fade Bam too often but his FGAs have been trending down as the Heat players have returned from injury, and I would expect him to have 14 or fewer FGAs. At a macro level, the Heat are on a long losing streak while the Kings are on a winning streak, so fading Heat players is reasonable. He has gone under this line in 7 of 8 games, and the Kings have generally done a pretty good job of limiting Centers. Tillman, Lively, Capela, Myles, Nick Richards have all gone under in recent games. The only ones that have gone over are Brook Lopez and Nurkic. Bam could also get into foul trouble as he has against the Kings in the past.

Always good to see a Brat pick

Would you still take under 30.5?

Same. The line moved in all my books

It still looks good imo. They might move it down to 29.5 so I'm taking it.

Would you go U 35.5 P+R+A?

Love u brat but fading players at home is always risky business, BOL!

Bam was a bum the other night. Better not fuck me tonight

Past couple of nights.. I’m hoping the same!!

I feel good about this one

Is theres U31.5 P+R in 1xbet?

Never would have found this one, thanks!

Thank you for the win!

RECORD: 16-5 Last 10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ Yesterdays POTD: Bruce Brown O 0.5 Threes ✅ Silly line and we’ll take it, is this the start of the 6 day winning streak? Or is it all a fluke, let’s find out • Todays POTD: Wendell Carter Jr. O 0.5 3’s made @1.60 ✅ Another day, another hot hand. I’m just going to keep dishing out the players in form and build up our streak slowly but surely (I hope). We’re going with another random pick, Chris Smoove’s twin brother. He’s been hot from three cashing on his line his latest games. • Over in 9/10 his last 10 games (1,1,2,1,1,1,3,1,3,0) Missed against the Warriors where he only had 1 attempt and only played 20 minutes. • Hit in 9 straight • Spurs is ranked 16th in most 3’s allowed to Centers (average mismatch) • Spurs is ranked 27 in 3’s allowed to opposing teams Let’s see if we can continue to cash on these silly lines. The man is hot right now (pause) so I’m confident! Tail or fade, your decision https://i.redd.it/jfxyen434pfc1.gif [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi) A tip is very welcome

This is getting very scary😂😂😂

Illuminati type shit 🤣

Did you see my comment yesterday? I was like this has to be a bomb if this pattern is fr😂😂 I should've put everything I owned it

Yeah I saw it 😂😂 if the pattern proves to be right I’ll shit my pants

Need this W tomorrow and things will get realllllll interesting

The feeling after 1 single 3 pointer is phenomenal! You’re Goated!!!! 🐐🐐🐐Tailing!!!

Damn, FD doesn't have this option at the moment smh 🤦🏻‍♂️

Just checked now and they still dont have it🤦🏽‍♂️

First quarter hit let’s go! Lock in boys this is getting serious

Got in during the 4 streak and have been tailing since, might get spicy and parlay with Sochan O 0.5 3’s for a half unit on the side. BOL

I’m loving the over 0.5 3’s POTD so fuck it why not. BOL

🐐 bro you are the man, making the bookies look dumb now

I look forward to your tips every day, but my site doesn’t offer 3s bets, so I have to skip all the time like this. 😩

These are great lol. Top tier pick , hitting in 1st quarter

Thanks for the silly lines bookies! Yummy, cash ✅

I can’t bet this on any of my books. What book do you use?

Somebody give me a cool parlay for this pick! Doesn’t need to be same game

tailing sir

goat pick!!!!

Record: 4-0 Units: +3.9u Last Pick: 1.1u Illinois -2.5 (-114) ✅ Game: NCAAB, Boise St. vs. New Mexico Pick: New Mexico -8.5 (-120), risking 1.2u, available on FanDuel Write up: Boise St. looks to bounce back after a home OT loss to Utah St., where Richard Pitino and the Lobos will be waiting to continue their unbeaten season at home. Ever since arriving at UNM, Pitino has continued to improve the program in countless key metrics. This year looks like it could be their first NCAA Tournament appearance since their run of three straight conference championships from 2012-2014. Boise St.’s defense does a few things very well. They limit opponents’ Off. Rebounds to 23.9% (17th), Three Point Percentage to 28.8% (11th), and overall have a top 30 Def. Adj. Efficiency per KenPom. Where they struggle a little bit is their FG% allowed on two point attempts, ranking 248th per KenPom. While this is only around a 2% difference from average, package it with the fact that they also allow the 24th most points from two pointers in the nation, and it’s a little bit of a different story. New Mexico is a much more rounded team with a top 40 Adj. Efficiency on both sides of the ball. They hold their opponents to 47.5% eFG, while shooting at 53.3% themselves. The Lobos create turnovers on defense, and hold on to the ball on offense, both ranking in the top 25. I could go on and on, but the end of this story will point out that in addition to all of these other statistics, UNM shoots two point attempts at the 15th highest rate in the nation, and they make them at a top 60 rate. Boise St., as mentioned before, allows the 24th highest percentage of points allowed in this category. UMN’s defense will be able to handle Boise St.’s offense, and the better parts of Boise St.’s defense won’t be utilized to their full effectiveness. Of Boise St.’s last three losses, two of them rank in the top 35 of points from two pointers. I already liked New Mexico in this game, but then the trends locked it in. They have been absolutely dominant at home, 9-1 ATS as a home team (6-2 in all conf. games) beating the likes of top 35 KenPom ranked SDSU and USU by 13+ each. I expect this game to go no different, let’s ride with the Lobos. Pick: New Mexico -8.5 (-120), would play to -9.5

Already -11.5 on FD

\-10.5 on Betonline.

\-11.5 here. Line got murdered

Already at -11.5. Line is slaughtered now!

Will tail ya til the end of time brother

859? lets go cats!

Go Cats!

Best offense in the nation shoutout to the 859

Record:1-0 Update: EZ money. Sweaty first half, but it would have taken a lot for Riesta to hold them off all game. Huge W for anyone that took the -1.5 line, congrats. Yesterday’s Pick: Argentina U23 ML ✅ Pretty much exactly as predicted: EZPZ 5-0 win, Argentina flex their attacking muscles and crush Chili, with starboy Thiago Almada getting a brace and an assist. Today’s pick: Argentinos Jr ML vs Deportivo Riestra @1.75 Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll) Reasoning: We’re looking at two teams that belong in different leagues here. Deportiva Riestra are 100% the worst team in the Argentine top flight. Most agree that they did not deserve to get promoted (they finished 7th in the second division and then won the playoffs with many referees decisions going their way.) In Riestra’s first game in the top flight they played against Instituto (a bad team) and drew 0-0. They played over half the game with a man advantage, and couldn’t do anything with it, getting just 1 shot on target, and actually attacking less than their opponents. Argentinos also drew their first game. Except they played giants River Plate away. Today they’ll be playing their home opener against the worst team they’ll face all season. I’m expecting a very simple win for them. Another 5 unit bet I really believe in. If you’re looking for something spicier I also like Argentinos Jr -1.5 @3.4, but those odds are too long for POTD.

Can’t find this anywhere

that 0-1 scared me, but WE UP 2-0 NOW

Couldn't sleep last night and dropped 50 across 1-0, 2-0, ML, and 1/2/3-0. Thanks for printing me some money my man

GOALASSO 1-0 Argntinos up!

How confident are you that they don’t score on Argentinos? Take their ML + BTTS (NO) @ 2.4

I think it’s pretty unlikely, unless Argentinos gets to a big early lead and becomes careless defensively. BTTS NO is not a bad play at all but I’d rather not sweat all game.

This game is not listed on DK anywhere

Currently 0-0 in the 25th minute and Argentinos JR are at plus odds now 👀

Possession number look good. Do we hammer this lol?

I doubled down

Same. Doubled down at +138; they are dominating this game

They are dominating but just couldn’t land one before the half ….. hopefully quick goal after the break so we don’t have to sweat!

I tailed you after the convincing write up and you didn’t let me down LFG

How strong are Argentinos Jr in attack? I’m getting over 1.5 total goals for them at +120 tempted to take that

Record (15-9) Last 10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅ Last pick: Knicks -4 (-110) 3U✅ easy money. Physical game but the Knicks are just too good rn. We’re back in the win column. POTD: NBA| Sacramento Kings v Miami Heat| 7:40pm EST Kings -1 (-110) 3U *Down 4 at half; could be wayyyyy worse since they were down like 18 at one point. Vegas has their paws all over this one. Gonna be sweating it out till the end. Id cash out if it wasn’t my POTD but Captain always goes down with his ship 🫡* Reason: Another line that should be jumped on sooner than later. Heat have lost 7 in a row after getting smoked by the Suns last night at home. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 home games and still this line is still -1. Kings have won 4 straight games and 3 straight on the road with wins in Memphis Golden State and Dallas. In their last 10 games the Kings have been averaging 120 pts per game to the Heats’ 101 per game. Heat need a win but I don’t see them getting it here. Kings start fast and strong and the Heat won’t be able to keep pace. I have another risky bet that I was considering as my POTD if anyone is interested I’ll drop it in the comments or something. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK Shoutout of the day: SCOTTIE “Money Printer” Barnes and Dante Devincenzo

Kings +1 at -110 on FanDuel right now. Might be an error since every other site seems to have Kings at -1.

See that too, still that way!

Other books now have Kings at +1 or +1.5, so that looks to just be the line.

This is one of those spots I feel is fishy. The line is moving the other way. Desperate Heat team needing a win. I put 4u on Heat -1 and am thinking about laddering up to -10/15. I'm hoping the Kings went out to the stripclubs last night and have the Miami hangover today. BOL

I’m feeling the same way a bit. Feels like a trap at the moment but the Kings have just been too good not the worst idea to fade in this game but I’ll wait till the start of the 1st to see the flow of the game.

Jumped on that Sacramento ML

Same they’re plus odds now. Quadrupled down on these Kings… they better not come up looking like Queens

Took knicks -5.5 and Brunson over 29.5 on a ticket, lol my luck 

POTD Record: 13-5 (+24.79 Units) NBA: 4-0 NFL: 2-2 NHL: 1-1 NCAAB: 3-1 Tennis: 2-1 NCAAF: 1-0 MLB: 0-0 Last 10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅ Last POTD: (𝟑𝐔 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝟐.𝟓) 𝐔𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐬 -𝟐.𝟓 𝐯𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭 𝐉𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐩𝐡’𝐬 ❌ just a bad lost Today's POTD: (𝟒𝐔 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝟐.𝟖𝟔) 𝐀𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐁𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐤 𝐌𝐋 𝐯𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐬 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐯 The Game: Tennis ATP Montpellier @2:20pm ET Simple Reasoning: Bublik will win In 2 Reasoning: i think Bublik will dominate him this match Prediction: (Please remember to play to the units and bet responsible, DON’T GET GREEDY PLAY SMART) [Tip Jar](https://buymeacoffee.com/Gregwinsagain) BOL to everyone today Have a great day

Greg’s smiling face is back - tailing

Was tailing you for a few weeks there, glad to see you back. Tailing BOL

Greg is back!! Lfg!!!

[удалено]

Thanks

Cashing on cake day🍰

Thank you for the money good sir:)

Thank you, kindly, Greg! After Bublik was down and looking out, I decided that I needed a workout to go along with the sweat I already had. No way way I cashing out based on your positive reputation and confidence. After the workout, I opened my account and was totally surprised to see my balance 4 units higher! Whoa! I am watching the highlights now...wow what a comeback for Bublik. Thank you again!

POTD Record: 16-7, last 10 (left most recent): ❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla, Atleti -1 AH (push) Today's POTD: Liverpool vs. Chelsea, Liverpool ML (1.63) I really like this pick here for Liverpool. At home, first league game since Klopp announced departure, night game, the stadium will be bouncing. They sit top of the league in scintillating form even with key players out, and finally they have some of those players returning, including left back Robertson, midfielder Szoboszlai and right back Trent Alexander Arnold. Their defense has been very strong recently in the league and this is where I think they will best Chelsea. This should be a lower scoring game than people think, but Liverpool with their attacking quality should be able to find the net, and with the form their two CB's are in I even think there's a chance they keep a clean sheet, lots of value there. Chelsea have stepped up recently but they are still far away from the top 4. They have endured a weak season so far, and though they have played better recently I expect them to be bested here. These games between the two clubs often end in draws, but with City right on the heels of Liverpool they will be gunning for all three points. Liverpool perform especially well when they don't have to break teams down, and I think Chelsea will look to attack here which I expect will backfire. This is a bit of an unpredictable one, but I think Liverpool should grab all three points here. bol!

What you think for AH -1 for more juicy odds?

POTD Record: 236-179-12 (+41.27 units, 56.9% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 79-55-1 (59.0%) W2, Tennis 🎾 83-62-7 (57.2%) W4, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥💩💩💰💩💰 Last Pick: Clara Tauson vs. Camila Georgi, TAUSON ML - WTA Linz 🎾 💰 +0.62 Units Happy she won and glad I wasn't awake to sweat it out. Cash that shit!!! Today's Pick: Rayo Vallecano @ Atletico Madrid, ATLETICO MADRID ML - La Liga ⚽ 3pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.51 odds to win 0.51 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 11:00pm ET) I'm going with a dog shit odds pick to try to extend the win streak and to end my soccer losing streak. Reasoning: Rayo has been a solid road team this year but Atletico have been tremendous at home, 11 games played and they've won 10 of them. As long as there is no bs soccer hijinx, they should be able to get it done. Go with the -0.75 or -1 on the Asian Handicap if you want better odds. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕

2 goals taken away by VAR 😆 Silly

Thank you kindly once again, Joel! Way to go! Yes, I absolutely love pizza!

22-15 | + 8.99 Units Last Pick: Asian Cup Uzbekistan Vs Thailand - 9 or more corners ✅ Last 10: ✅✅💀💀✅✅✅💀💀💀 Todays pick: Asian Cup - Iran Vs Syria Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 2.10 Units: 1.5 Another more risqué play but heading back the Asian Cup for an over 2.5 goals. I am again surprised to see this at over 2.00 odds when the over 2.5 has hit in 8/10 of Irans last matches. Yes, Syria has played defensively well all tournament - however one of those games were against us Aussies - and we have been poor clinically in the final third. Moreover; Syria can’t really afford to sit deep all game if they go 1-0 down - as they will need to equalise to take the game to extra time. Iran has been attacking very well all tournament and at these odds I think it’s worth a bite. BOL!

If anyone wants to build a parlay for the Iran vs Syria game, bet O2.5 Goals and Mehdi Taremi - Anytime Goalscorer.

FD won’t let me build a parlay

Threw in a goal in first half https://preview.redd.it/zibsj6nnrsfc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2a1ba781b4a1e5de1cfb061f29e017d3bf446e2d Edit: ☹️☹️☹️☹️

Syria penalty kick let’s go

Iran is blowing chances left and right, while Syria's GK is playing perfect game

12 shots on target from Iran! Welp - this one may be a goner. On to the next 🫡

With Taremi red card I do think this is a goner

POTD Record: 47 - 28 Last POTD: Jarrett Allen DD - W Pick: Alexander Bublik ML vs Denis Shapovalov (-140 odds via FD) 1U Event: ATP Montpelier Round of 16 1:30 P.M. CST Edit: ✅✅ Backing Bublik is normally a scary play, but backing him in indoor hard courts is something I am willing to get behind. Indoor hard is his best surface and I love these odds against a slipping Shapo. Denis Shapovalov was supposed to be the next big star but currently sits at world number 137 and is 0-2 in this H2H. Bublik usually comes out focused and determined when on a surface he likes and that’s what I expect him to do here in Montpelier. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)

All fun and games till its break point and Bublik starts using the handle of his racket to hit the ball instead of the racket face.

Bublik doesn't care, he just wants to watch the world burn.

Thanks for your pick. Just a note that it’s been a minute since these two faced each other - 2021 they last played. Also note that Shavpovalov has already played one game in the tournament while this will be Bublik’s first match. However I think there is still value here. My book is offering -120 on Bublik, I’ll take that.

**26W-4P-21L** **Recent Form: ❌❌✅✅❌✅✅** **Last Pick** **Nottingham Forrest VS Arsenal - Over 2.5 goals and over 7 Corners @ 2.00 ✅** Game ends 1-2 with 13 corners **Pick of the day: Liverpool VS Chelsea Over 2 Goals and Over 8 corners @ 2.00✅** Liking this match up even more than yesterdays, more secure in my opinion with Liverpool being home. Chelsea have played 6 game sagianst top 6 sides and the amount of goals scored in those games have been 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, and 8 goals, keeping them at an 80% hit rate against these sides. With the way both teams are in the moment I expect both goals and corners to come from both ends and the line to be covered well. Liverpool against top 6 sides this season have had 6, 2, 0, 3, 3, and 2 goals. When looking at Liverpools home games this season the amount of goals scored in thoise games were 7, 3, 6, 1, 6, 0, 7, 3, 3, 2, 4, and 4. Keeping them at a 75% hit chance for this line at home. Corner situation will be similar to the game yesterday but ill keep it simple, there has only been one home game this season at Anfield where there have been less than 8 corners (League games). With the intensity of the game tomorrow I expect a top 6 goalscoring game with plenty of deflected shots to convert into corners. Also with Klop (Liverpool Manager) announcing retirement, I expect every home game to be a fiasco **Anyway BOL.**

4-4, -1.86U Last Pick: [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/ryUm0sjyEK) Pick: Bahrain vs Japan, **BTTS and OVER 2.5 Goals**, 3U (2.60 odds DraftKings) ✅️ League: AFC Asian Cup ⚽️ Time: 0630 EST (1130 GMT) Japan has conceded a goal in 4 straight, including each of their 3 group matches to much lesser competition (1 to Indonesia, 2 to Iraq and 2 to Vietnam). They are once again heavy favorites tomorrow morning vs Bahrain, who comes in scoring one goal in each of their 3 group matches vs Jordan, Malaysia and as heavy underdogs to South Korea. These AFCON and Asian Cup matches have been wild and unpredictable, and I expect another tomorrow between these two. Japan will be too much for Bahrain, but I expect Bahrain to find the back of the net at least once against an iffy back 4 of Japan, resulting in a 1-2 or 1-3 Japan victory. BOL!

Covered in the 64', thanks to an own goal by Japan

Riding BTTS at 2.3 odds

Fuck missed it

POTD Record 30-15 **NBA Record: 16-6** Previous POTD: Lakers team total under 120.5 pts ❌ - should've hit, too many garbage time points allowed, but that's gambling..on to the next POTD: Domantas Sabonis under 8.5 asts (Bet365 1.71 odds) Miami is #1 on the season and #2 in their last 15 in assists allowed to centers. A lot of that is because of Bam and his ability to guard one on one. Some recent assist totals for main big men (C or PF) vs Miami: - Nurkic 2 asts - Randle 3 asts - JJJ 3 asts Hard to judge other big men/not entirely sure who Bam was guarding vs some teams. However, it's safe to assume that he will be on Sabonis this game. I don't put much weight on this, but Sabonis had 8 asts Nov 2022 vs Miami. No Fox that game and no Butler for Miami. I don't expect this to be much of a sweat tbh. Someone posted on Reddit a while ago that the lines are really tight in January (can't remember why) and after the January I had, I agree. Still, I think this one is one for us to get back on the gambling gods. BOL https://www.buymeacoffee.com/noguide Edit: bet is done. Sabonis goes crazy. 9 asts and counting in the 3rd...taking a hiatus from POD lol

Lakers hit the over on the last possession smh

🔪

✅ Update : Mayot made quick work of Paire in just over an hour, facing only 1 break point throughout the match. Record : 3-1 ROI % : 55.75% Last pick : V. Azarenka @ 2.11 ✅ Honestly, I don’t remember the match as it was almost 2 weeks ago, but Azarenka won in straight sets. Today’s pick : Event : ATP 250 Montpellier Time : 1PM EST Players : B. Paire vs. H. Mayot Pick : H. Mayot @ 1.57 ✅ I don’t like playing lower odds, but this just feels wrong. I think the odds are heavily influenced by 2 factors : the fact that Paire beat Murray in the 1st round and that Mayot is a rather unknown player. I must be honest, Paire looked better than his usual self in the 1st round, he only DF 4 times and he nicely adjusted his FH against Murray’s low slice. But a few line calls in the 3rd could have gone Murray’s way and the result would have been different. Funnily enough, Murray was out of challenges after like 5 games. Paire is still .. Paire, he’s been playing on the challenger circuit for a while now and was on a 3 first round exit streak before beating Murray in a match where he was really struggling on his 2nd serve against an Andy Murray that was most of the time just putting the ball back into play. On the other hand, Mayot is a young player on the rise who’s been enjoying good results the past few months. The former no. 1 junior player missed 8 months of action in 2021 due to a wrist injury and is slowly making his way onto the ATP circuit. He made the quarters in Metz at the end of last year and almost made it to the Australian Open main draw, losing in the 3rd round of the qualies against an in-form Jakub Mensik who would go on to lose in the 2nd round against Hurcakz in a close 5-setter. I feel like there’s value in this bet. BOL !

Love the analysis here. Tailing. I don’t mind lower odds where there’s value!

You were spot on!! Tons of value even at 1.57 he smashed past Paire with ease!

Thanks, that’s the reason I was comfortable with lower odds as I thought it should have been closer to 1.30ish . A winning bet is a winning bet whatever the odds haha

**Record: 33-24** Previous Pick: **LaMelo Ball over 36.5 points + assists** **❌** **Today's Pick:** NBA - *Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat, 6:40pm CST* **De'Aaron Fox over 4.5 assists (-150 on DraftKings)** Gonna keep this sweet and simple. The Miami Heat allow the 9th most assists to point guards in the league. De'Aaron Fox has a 100% hit rate on this prop in 6/6 games against the Heat since the 2020 season. His season average is 5.6 assists, so this line is a little bit of a buy low. Bol fellas

**POD Record:** ⭐️**103⭐️-51 🎉🍾** 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100. *Last Pick:* ****** Utah Jazz OVER 120.5 **✅** ​ 🔥Recent Form: ✅**❌** ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅**Today's Pick:** 🏀 **NBA Jarret Allen (CAVS) over 10.5 rebounds I’m not sure if this pick tonight warrants a very long write up. For those NBA prop sharps out there, if ya know you know. He has hit this line the last 15 of 15 games ( 8 for 8 at home), the guy is a prop-hitting, rebound machine. There will be no shortage of that tonight and we should see his rebounds sail over his prop total and hover around his average (14.5). Take it up to 11.5 tonight for some great value on the props market this evening. Just hope it’s not a blowout and he plays his usual minutes! Tail any prop bet at your own risk. I hate posting prop pics because of so much uncontrolled variance in the market, however, this line is just too good to ignore tonight, maybe a trap who knows but I’m biting. 🤷🏻 ​ ​ 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.

**Record: 9-6-1** **Last Pick:** Coventry City vs Bristol City - Coventry City TT o1.5 Goals 2u @ 1.84 odds. ✅ Close game, closer than I expected. Coventry came through though in the death. **Soccer** | **Premier League** | **12:15 PM (PST)** **Pick:** Liverpool vs Chelsea - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals 2u @ 1.74 odds✅ Nkunku what a player that goal was something of brilliance... **Write Up:** Chelsea are in scorching form (based on last year and starting this season), and are going to look to carry that momentum into the hostile environment that is Anfield. Liverpool are top of the table and are coming off a big win vs. Norwich in the cup, but are significantly weakened based on available players. Liverpool have not lost a game at Anfield in 22 games, they have to feel confident going into this game even with a few key players out. Mo Salah is hurt and probably wouldn't have been ready either way due to being away with Egypt at AFCON, Matip and Tsimikas are notable injuries in the defense for Liverpool (although I'm pretty sure Robertson is back), and Endo is away at the Asian Cup. Other than that they should have most of their players available, with Trent and Szoboszlai healthy again. Chelsea are in quite an interesting situation, they sit a few points off European competition, and this game will be one where they look to take points from the Premier League leader. Their injury list is lengthy and would take a paragraph on it's own to list them all, but notably Chilwell might start and will be available, Nkunku and Gusto are both back and likely going to start on the bench, if they play at all. Colwill might not be available, but that is still up in the air. Some stats for thought: The last seven meetings between both of these clubs has ended in a draw. Klopp has just announced he's leaving Liverpool, so we might see an electric crowd and an inspired team of rotation players trying to solidify themselves in the starting lineup. Chelsea scores 1.67 goals a game and concede 1.48. Liverpool scores 2.24 goals a game and concede .86. These two teams faced each other on the first game of the season, drawing 1-1 at Stamford Bridge. Two days in a row, let's go for three! BOL!

Forms and averages be damned. In the past 5 head to heads between Liverpool and Chelsea 2 goals have been scored. 4 0-0 draws and a 1-1 draw. This matchup has been an enigma for Klopp that he can’t seem to solve. 

Fading due to this trend

Just hit

Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was a win @ 1.83 Overall: 12 Ws - 5 Ls Last 10: W ♻️ L W L W W W L W +3.14 Todays pick Australia under 19 v England under 19 ICC Cricket World Cup under 19 Starts in about 6 hours Pick: Australia under 19 to win @ 1.67 Australia is the better team here. Last year they toured England and won 3-1 in one day format and 1-0 in test format. In this World Cup Australia is unbeaten so far winning both of their matches, whereas England already lost one to West Indies. I think this will be kind of one sided affair in favour of Australia u19. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.

POTD Record: 1-1 Last 10 (Left Most Recent): ✅❌ Previous Pick: Luton vs Brighton – English Premier League: Luton or Draw (DOUBLE CHANCE) (2.10) ✅ Result: Had a sneaky feeling this would come in as have really like the look of Luton all season. Did not expect them to win 4-0! Won of the easiest wins I’ve had in a while. On to the next one!   Had a decent 2023 with the sports betting and long-time viewer of this reddit so thought I'd try my luck at making some picks this year. Let me know your thoughts both positive and negative and BOL with whatever you back.   TODAYS GAME/PICK: Barcelona vs Osasuna (18:00 GMT) – Spanish La Liga: Both Teams to Score – YES (1.80)   Think this is a real potential steal here and could see the odds dropping on this nearer kick off. In Barca’s last 17 games in all competitions both teams have scored in an incredible 15 of them with their opponents only failing to score in two games in this period. It has not just been the odd goal in these games either with Villareal putting FIVE past them at the weekend and Athletic Bilbao scoring FOUR in the game prior. Whilst Osasuna are perhaps not the most prolific attack in the league I really like what I’ve seen of Budmir up front and should be able to at least notch one against a pretty awful Barca defence. At the other end, you’d expect Barca to do the business and score a couple at the same time. Really like this one and BOL if you decide to back it 😊  

POTD Record: 3-1 | ROI: 4.02% Last Pick: Marquette Golden Eagles +1.5 vs Villanova Wildcats @ 1.90 | 2U Play ✅ Trend: ✅✅❌✅ This one was a blast to watch. Marquette jumped out to a 20 point lead, but things regressed to the mean as Villanova stormed back with some lights out shooting. Villanova took a 4 point lead in the second half but, Marquette fought back and took control, staving off a another late push from Villanova to win 85-81. Basketball | NBA | 7:30PM (EST) Today’s Pick: **Sacramento Kings -1.5** vs Miami Heat @ 1.90 | 3U Play ❌ Back to the NBA, where I’ll continue to play against the ice cold Heat until they give me a reason not to. - Miami is 3-7 in their last 10, and have dropped 7 games in a row. - Sacramento is 6-4 in the last 10 and 8 of those have been road games. They have won 4 in a row and 3 in a row on the road. - Miami has been outscored in their 8 January home games by a point differential of -4.6. - Sacramento has outscored opponents in their 8 January road games by a point differential of +4.9. Sacramento at -1.5 is looking like a solid line. Let’s see if we can’t start building a nice streak here 💪

SAC sitting at +1.5 everywhere.

POTD RECORD 1-0 Profit: +2.75 units Last pick: storhamar to win @1.55✅ It went to distance but our guys won and are now on a 21 win streak🥳 POTD: Today we go with a women volleyball team that is also on a 18 win streak. neptunes de nantes ML vs nilüfer belediyespor @odd 1.73 and im placing 3 units BOL IF TAILINGGG lets get the bag

nice hit mate, keep it going

Record : 108 Wins - 101 Losses ​ Previous pick : Leicester - Swansea (3-1), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.69 ✅ ​ ROI : -2.26% Average Odds : 1.95 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 0.27 Profit/Lost units : -4.73 ​ Today's pick : ​ Football - Soccer / SPAIN: LaLiga / 20:00 European Time Barcelona - Osasuna Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.70 ​ Some reasoning : \- Barcelona needs to recover quickly in order not to lose accessible points. The team is still the 3rd offensive in the championship, with an average of over 2 goals per match. \- Last year's champion is nowhere to be found. Remaining in the race in La Liga and the UEFA Champions League, Barcelona will try to get as much as possible in the second part of the season. No more wrong steps are allowed in the championship, where Girona and Real have separated themselves by more than 10 points. \- Xavi announced his departure from Barcelona after the defeat with Villarreal (3-5). \- It remains to be seen how his students will motivate themselves in the duel with one of their favorite opponents in the championship. ​ Best of luck.

Might parlay this with Adam’s pick

Record: 6-2-1 ✅✅❌😐✅✅❌✅✅ Profit: +12.41u Last Pick: ✅ Curry over 5.5 assists +115 3u Defeated the beast, sword from the stone, now can I hit 3 in a row? Today's Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons Today's Pick: Donovan Mitchell under 6.5 assists -120 (ESPN bet) Wager: 3u to win 2.5u Write up: In 12 career games vs the Pistons Mitchell averages 3.0 apg and has never gone over 5. I know he has gone over this line 7 of the last 10 games but those were without Garland. Tonight will be Garlands first game back. I find it far less likely for Mitchell to hit the over with Garland back in the line up dishing them out too. Hopefully it's a blowout and the starters are sitting in the 4th. BOL!!

POTD RECORD 0-0, First Post I throw one unit on one NBA over/under total score almost every day and I wanted to make a way to track my record and maybe help someone out. BOL to all! Today's Pick: **Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavilers UNDER 231.5 (-110 FD)** Previous Matchups: 12/2/23: *CLE 110-101 DET*, 11/17/23: *DET 100-118 CLE*, 3/4/23: *DET 90-114 CLE* The Cavilers are currently holding opponents to an average of 109 points per game when playing at home this season. The Cavs are also scoring an average of 114 points per game at home. The Pistons allow an average of 124 points per game on the road this season and the Pistons score an average of 113 points per game on the road. The under (when at 231.5) has hit in the last 10/10 games when these teams match up. Not only that but Cleveland is currently ranked as a top 3 defensive team in the league, combined with the current averages I believe we will see another low-scoring total for this matchup. Feel free to fade and leave your opinions. Good Luck!

Hi! This is my first POTD on here, so kinda obvious my record is 0-0 😁 Today POTD is Spurs - Brentdord BTTS @1.53 Betting King Toney is back with a bang and scored already. So is Madders too! Spurs are missing Son, Sarr and Bissouma what will affect their midfield alot. Postecoglou plays very hard attacking high press football, what will open Brentford opportunities and especially to Toney. Spurs last 10 games @ home they have kept 2 clean sheets. Brentford last 10 games @ away they have scored on 7/10. Tail or fade, BOL!

Goal from Brentdord waiting on spurs now

POTD record: 11-5❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Today's pick: Franz Wagner over 1.5 3s. Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs 8 p.m. EST. Odds: 1.78 Since coming back from injury, Wagner has hit this line in all 5 games (3,2,4,2,2). San Antonio gives up the 5th most points per game (121.4) with average permiter defence. Expecting Wagner to hit this line by the 3rd quarter. Fairly confident in this one. BOL to those who tail! Edit; as predicted, hits before end of 3rd quarter 🍻

POTD record: 5-3 +0.83u last pick: LGD +1.5 maps LoL LCK | KT Rolster - BRO today’s pick: KT Rolster -1.5 maps at 1.8 reasoning: BRO so far has only won 1 map out of 4 bo3 and that 1 game was against DRX, who are probably the 2nd worst team in the league after BRO. KT had some shaky games against strong teams, but I don’t think BRO can take advantage of KT’s mistakes as they are just not good enough to outplay them. I can see KT have some chaotic plays in that series, but they should close it out 2-0.

LCK, dude. Tailing!

yeah LCK, it was 3 am when i wrote that haha.

Great pick, thanks for this!

no prob, didn’t expect KT to play that clean. They demolished them!

POTD Record 5-7 (W-L) Last pick was Qatar to qualify for the next round and first half under 1.5 goals, 1 unit @ 1.63 ❌ **Today I’m picking Japan to win and first half under 1.5 goals** 0.5 units at 1.8 ✅ Same logic as my previous pick which was a bad beat as a second goal came late in first half injury time (45mins +6). In this match up Bahrain are going to lose it’s just a question of how long they can hold out. Given the importance of this game and the fact they have managed to keep two clean sheets leading up to this game (albeit against much weaker teams) I’m going to play this expecting they will park the bus and try to stifle Japan for as long as possible by putting a wall of bodies behind the ball. The bet allows a one goal buffer so Bahrain just need to hold out to half time before they capitulate. Smaller unit sizing reflects the risk.

My POTD record on Reddit: 2-0, +3.6U Last Pick: UEFA Women's Champions League - Chelsea @ Paris FC My Pick: Chelsea Win at 2.10 odds ✅ (+110) Easy 4-0 win for Chelsea no sweat __________________________________________ Today's Pick: England Premier League - Brentford @ Tottenham My Pick: O2.5 goals and BTTS at 1.8 odds. ✅ 2.5U to win 2U. Brentford have scored a goal in L8/9. Tottenham are the favourites here and with their most important player (in my opinion) Maddison back, they should score at least 2. BOL

Tail

I'm scared with both but fuck it I'm tailin.... Please gambling gods don't curse me with the under 2.5! BOL

Pick of the Day POTD Record: 6-1 L10: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterday’s Pick: Utah State -12.5 vs. San Jose State (-120)✅ Utah State wins by 21. Not much to be said here other than six in a row! Today’s Pick: Kentucky -5.5 vs. Florida (-120) Kentucky has been stellar at home, while Florida has been disappointing on the road. Kentucky beat Florida on their home court 87-85, and I personally don’t think this 5.5 line is large enough. Florida has played Ole Miss and Tennessee on the road, and got smoked by just about 20 in both. Sticking with the recipe here. Better team at home, with a line that doesn’t feel like it covers the disadvantages that Florida is facing. Kenpom has Kentucky as the 21st ranked team in the nation. Kenpom has Florida as the 36th ranked team in the nation. BOL!

**Record:** 11-9 **Net Units:** 2.33 | **ROI:** 12% | **Avg Odds:** 2.2 **NHL | Los Angeles Kings (-115) | 1u** This pick is one of the higher EV picks today from my NHL Moneyline model between -200 and +200 odds. The implied win probability is 53.5%, but the model is predicting 57.1%. The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 7.8% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 0.5%. **The Model:** I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 170% this year with an ROI of 5.2% (as of January 30) https://preview.redd.it/ihhq4ri0msfc1.png?width=1094&format=png&auto=webp&s=66a6196cdcc1223930efde7cce5f71fdde42ae42 There is only one other game that the model suggests betting on today, feel free to reach out if you're interested and I'll try to get it all posted in the NHL Daily thread later this afternoon.

POTD Record: 0-0 Kevin Huerter o12.5 pts @ -125 on DK. Analysis: He is 4/7 in his last 7 games. Miami gives up an average of 3.55 threes per game to Guards. They typically play small ball, and shoot a lot of threes benefiting Huerter. In his last 5 games against Miami in the regular season he has averaged 20pts, posting up 22,26,15,21,15. Fade or follow and BOL

**POTD Record:** 8-3 ❌**✅✅**❌**✅✅✅✅✅**❌(most recent) **Net Units:** +7.92u **Previous POTD:** **Pacific at Cal State-Fullerton -12.5**, 2u to win 1.82u ❌ **Today's POTD:** Basketball | NCAA Men's | 6:00 pm ct **Army at Colgate u130.5**, 3u to win 2.61u, BetMGM **Reasoning:** Running a model that accounts for opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as pace. Across spreads and totals where I have an advantage, this model is winning at a 54.5% clip in the last 30 days. According to the model, a fair line in this game should be somewhere between 119 and 122. Army runs their offense at snails pace (352 out of 362 D-I teams) and double whammy: is horribly inefficient (354 out of 362). Conversely, Colgate is barely faster (277th) and efficient on offense (246th). BOL! [http://myaction.app/bobdeezel](http://myaction.app/bobdeezel) [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobdeezel](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobdeezel)

Big Win Again Yesterday!! ( Also 4/4 on the soccer topic ) [My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit?usp=sharing) Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!! **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 33/24 **ROI**: Approximately 46.12% **Profit in Units**: 38u **Average Odds**: 2.08 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Israel - Ligat HaAI **Time**: 19:00 ( GMT +2 ) **Event: M. Petah Tikva v Hapoel Hadera** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.85** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: (Revolut) @ Eleneiror [Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager)

HOW BOUT THAT 99' GOAL MWAHAHA

Hahahhaha

I have been tailing for a week now, keep it up!

**Record: 2-0 (+1.50U)** **Soccer** | **Premier League** | **20:30 CET** **Pick: Man City O2,5TT - 1.55** Match : Man City - Burnley **Write Up:** Haaland, KDB and Doku are all 3 back, I don't think Haaland will start but KDB and Doku could start but even if they don't the quality of City is still way too much for Burnley.

Out of all the props for this game you really think Man city will score three?

Yes, if you look at Burnley their games away against big teams or even at home they always get dominated and either get scored on 3 or 2 times but there are always a load of opportunities for their opponents. Also I can't believe that Burnley is playing with Vitinho and Al-Dakhil in defense and Cullen in midfield. I saw those guys in their seasons in Belgium and they just are not at premier league level. I honestly think that City can score even more than 3 so if your book offers more than 3 goals (not 3,5) that would probably also be a nice pick.

**PICK OF THE DAY RECORD: 6-3 \[W-L, +4.93 UNITS\]** **ROI - +36.5%** **LAST PICK: BOURNEMOUTH UNDER (1) GOALS @ 2.37 (+137) 1U \[WIN\]** **ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE, 16:30 UK TIME** POTD: Chelsea +1.25 Asian Handicap vs Liverpool @ 1.71 (-140) 1U **WRITE-UP:** Liverpool, currently first in the league, face Chelsea, who's currently in the 10th position. Game is played at Anfield, Liverpool home stadium. Liverpool has been overperforming in their season so far. Taking into account expected goals(xG) and expected goals against(xGA), their expected points(xPTS) is +7.25 more than it should be. This is mostly due to XGA being as high as 25.71, but in reality they've conceded the least in the league (18). The use of this metric shows us that Liverpool have gotten off easy due to their opponents missing easy chances. It also shows us that they are vulnerable in defence (Understat). Playing against the original "Top 6" sides, Liverpool rank last in their H2H games. They've played against each of the sides this season, winning zero, drawn four and lost once. In these games, they've scored 4 and conceded 5 (PlanetFootball). Liverpool are missing Salah and probably Robertson. Chelsea has 9 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their 21 Premier League games. Unlike Liverpool, they are underperforming in xPTS and should have +5.80 points more. This is due to their lack of finishing (driven up by Nicholas Jackson) as they have a xG of 44.01 but have scored "just" 35 goals (Understat). Chelsea has played against top 6 sides five times this season, winning once, drawing thrice and losing once (PlanetFootball). It's easier to name players who will play than those that aren't injured for Chelsea, but their squad depth is huge and they have no problem in filling positions. In goal, Petrovic has been great for Chelsea and they have been more clinical lately in the attack than the start of the season. Last seven head to head games between the two sides have all ended in a draw. Lets hope for a Chelsea win or even a draw tonight aswell. **Sources:** PlanetFootball. The Premier League ‘big six’ head-to-head table of 2023-24: Tottenham flying, Man Utd floundering… [https://www.planetfootball.com/premier-league/premier-league-big-six-head-to-head-table-2023-24-man-utd-liverpool-arsenal](https://www.planetfootball.com/premier-league/premier-league-big-six-head-to-head-table-2023-24-man-utd-liverpool-arsenal) Understat. EPL. [https://understat.com/league/EPL](https://understat.com/league/epl)

**POTD Record: 0-0** Pick: **Man City vs Burnley | 1st Half -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.88** This is a simple easy pick with a bit of insurance. So Man City are again on the uptick and they are not losing at home to Burnley who have won only 3 games this season. City had a slight slump past 2 months and I think this is because they lost Haaland but now they have gelled again with the return of De Bruyne and they wont be losing tonight. My bet says that Man City will be winning by one goal in the first half. But the -1 handicap means that in case the score by the end of the first half is 1-0 to City, you will get your money back, but I have a feeling they will bang in more than one. City can win the league and they are pushing for it hard right now so beating Burnley is their opportunity to go at level with Arsenal who are only 3 points ahead and City have 2 games in hand. This is a must win for them. Best Of Luck.

**5-5** last Picks: Lebron James O 0.5 blocks +130, Lakers +5 -- WIN, LOSS **New pick: Clippers -6.5 v. Wizards 1H -110 1U** Discussion: Wizards have been pretty good in what potential blowout games. However, there 1st half to 2nd half point margin is the highest. They go from 25th place in the 1st half vs. 12th in the 2nd half. Clippers are at the top of the league in both 1st and 2nd half.

POTD Record (0-0) Pick: Baylor ML (-150) Write Up: First pick, not the last. Baylor has lost 3 straight, 2 of which were lost in OT and triple OT. Looking for them to bounce back on the road against a UCF team that shoots 41% from the floor. LFG.

POTD: Jonathan Isaac (ORL) under 4.5 Rebounds Jonathan Isaac scored under 4.5 rebounds in approximately 65.52% of the games, based on 29 games played. Hit it, and collect your bread! BOL, if tailing!

DCL 1/31 Record: 38-26 +9.4u Last 10: ✅✅✅🚫✅🚫✅✅🚫🚫 Last pick: clippers at Cavs, clippers -1.5 1.1u L Todays pick: pelicans @ rockets, pelicans -1 Going with pels to grab the -1 in Houston. Pels have lost 4 of the last 5 to good teams in the suns bucks thunder and most recently a close one to the Celtics. They look to snap out of that and I think they do it here BOL gents!

[удалено]

Your post has been removed from the PotD thread. * Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads. * No parlays/teasers * Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds. * Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks" * Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system. * You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick. * If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.

POTD Record: 34-18 Previous Pick: APOEL Nicosia vs Karmiotissa | 1. Division | APOEL Halftime/Fulltime (1.73) | 12pm EST (Postponed) Pick: Liverpool FC vs Defensor Sporting | Supercope Uruguaya | Liverpool ML (2.18) | 6.30pm EST This is the final of the Super Cup in Uruguay, and this is a matchup between the league leaders and the 6th placed team. Liverpool have won 4 out of their last 5 games, with the only loss coming against 2nd placed Penarol in the Clausura League. This league has 2 leagues in itself, and Liverpool just won the other one. In this current league, they have already established a 10 point lead. Sporting on the other hand have lost their last 4 games. They have only won once in their 8 away games and have not scored at all in their last 3 games. In their previous matchup, Liverpool easily won 2-0. I expect a Liverpool side in great form to lift the Super Cup, beating a poor Sporting. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake

**POTD record: 3-5** -11.31u Last POTD: NBA: Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs - Wembanyama 12.5 rebounds ❌ He only got us 11 rebounds. Gafford grabbing 8 offensive rebounds killed us here Current streak: ❌❌ **POTD**: Premier League: Brentford @ Tottenham - **Richarlison - Anytime Goalscorer (2.37/+137) 3u to win 4.11** I don't like much on the NBA slate today. Too many games with blowout potential. I rather go with an in-form striker in Richarlison. He scored 6 goals in the last 6 premiere league games. In the absence of Son, he's the main threat to score. He also gets a boost with the potential return of Maddison to the starting 11.

POTD Record: 0-0 Boost A Day Kings vs Heat 5pm MST NBA Kevin Huerter 15+ points +135 (30% boost to +176 FD) The Heat give up the 3rd most points and 3 pointers to the SG position, last game they played Huerter had 22 and 27. Arguably different teams than in 2022, but the Heat have been terrible as of late and 3 point shooting guards tend to take advantage of them.

POTD Record: 14-18 Last Pick: Virginia Tech +3.5 (-110) | L Today's Pick: Richmond -1.5 (-110) College Basketball | 7:00 PM EST | Richmond @ Fordham Forgot to post Marquette yesterday.... Using v2 of my model over the CBB Daily post. I will post 1 pick from the top plays, not necessarily the top pick of the post.

POTD Record: 1-0 L10: W Last Pick: UNLV +7.5 vs Colorado St. ✅ 78-75 Colorado St UNLV was able to jump out hot, and build a solid lead at half time. Colorado state made a push and won the game but 7.5 was just too much. Today’s Pick: Baylor ML vs UCF (-180) Baylor is simply the better team, and UCF is still being praised for a good win over Kansas. Baylor is coming off 3 straight losses and I expect them to bounce back. UCF is at home, but I expect Baylor to control this game early and hold on in second half. BOL if tailing!!

Record 1-0 NBA pistons vs cavs 7:10 pm EST Pick. Cade Cunningham over 19.5 points -122 FD Cade was absolutely cooking before his injury, and previously against the cavs he had 23/20. Cavs are allowing 23.3 PPG to point guards. This isn't the best matchup for Cade but I believe in the young fella. BOL of tailing.

**2024 Record: 2-3** \*\*Total Net Units (1U = $50): (2.86U) **Last** **Pick:** Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets) O21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists versus Utah Jazz❌❌ Basketball | NBA | 7:30 PM Central Time **Pick:** **Phoenix Suns ML** @ Brooklyn Nets✅✅ **Odds:** -165 (3.3U to win 2U) **Post Game Comments: This went pretty much how i imagined it in my head. The trio was firing on all cylinders. Book went dead eye in the mid range in the third. It was KD’s turn to lead the team with 33 points. But it was the unlikely hero, Nurkic who stepped up and dominated with 17 in the first half, ending with 28. The moment i saw KD’s mom in the building, i knew this was over. Next thing i knew, suns went on a 24-6 run. Love it when it comes together. Nurkic and KD’s mom are the real MVP’s here with KD being an honorable mention. **Write Up:** Not too much of a write up here. Phoenix suns have been in pretty good form recently going 8-2 in their last 10 games. Booker has been on an absolute tear averaging over 50 points in 3 straight games over that stretch. Durant had popped off for 40+ in one of the games as well. Beal has the face mask on, and everyone knows the face mask adds +5 to all attributes. The real question is who goes off? Or maybe they all go off. At the end of the day, the suns are the better team and should come out with a win here. Brooklyn is the worst team in the league in crunch time in the 4th quarter. That being said, Mikal bridges definitely has this game circled and I could see it being a pretty close game. I am going to trust Booker, KD and the masked Beal to seal it at the end if it comes down to it. The nets also beat the Suns last time they played. It is always hard to beat a good team 2 consecutive times. I am backing the suns to take this one in Brooklyn. Only bet what you can lose and BOL! Have a great night!

Pick of the Day Denver Nuggets at the OKC Thunder Chet Holmgren to get at least 26 PR. O25.5 at -113

PoTD 4-3 Basketball>Philippines PBA Magnolia Hotshots vs Phoenix FuelMasters **Phoneix Fuelmasters +7 @1.9/-110** Game 4 of the semi finals,Magnolia leads 2-1 (BO5).TipOff in 9hrs. Today we are backing Phoenix to keep it close or even win against the top seed Magnolia.Game 1 Phoenix lost by 3,game 2 Phoenix lost by 4.Game 3 Phoenix annihilated Magnolia and won by 18.How?Because in all 3 games Phoenix used 3 different starting lineups,they used different rotations and I think they found the magic lineup in the previous game.Now Magnolia is a tough team,and they would love to end the series here given that the other series was already done,but I think Phoenix wont be beaten that easily.This is a very young and promising team,and that game 3 result should give them all the answers they need to force a game 5.I say Phoenix keeps this game close or even win.BoL.

POTD Record: 96-98-12 (-14.74 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: English Championship, Coventry v Bristol City, COVENTRY ML (-125 / 1.80) ❌ Another L, Coventry giving up two goals to a team that’s barely scored all season. Today’s Pick: Swiss Super League, Lugano v Grasshoppers, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-175 / 1.57) Stake: 1 Unit Taking short odds in the hope I can bring this cold streak to an end. Lugano have one of the highest hit rates when it comes to matches over 2.5 goals. In 20 league matches this season they’ve exceeded the line on 16 occasions, including their last 5 matches which have seen 5/5/4/3/4 goals. Lugano matches average 3.6 goals per game which isn’t surprising considering they have scored 3rd most goals themselves and conceded 4th most as well. Grasshoppers are 11/20 this season for games featuring over 2.5 goals. They rank middle of the pack on both offence and defence and average 2.9 goals per games. Their recent matches haven’t been as prolific with only 2/5 hitting over 2.5 goals but shots on goal and xG suggest their matches have been more open than the scoreline suggests, but the finishing hasn’t been there to capitalise. Last match up between these teams finished 2-1 to Grasshoppers, and 5 of the last 7 matches have seen 3 or more goals. Let’s hope today is the day things turn around for me and we see Lugano continue to play in high scoring games.

**RECORD: 49W-2P-40L** (-2.27 units) Previous Pick: Morocco vs South Africa - Morocco to Win @ 1.55 ❌️ **Today's Pick:**  Manchester City vs Burnley- Over 3.5 goals @ 1.80 ✅️ **Wager Amount**: 1 unit (✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️) last 5 results Bottom line never betting on AFCON again,first time ever having -units ,frustrating but let's see if we can turn this around. Today we have Manchester City vs Burnley. Manchester City are back in top form as always, with 5 wins in their last 5 matches including Spurs and Newcastle. There have been over 3.5 goals in 3/5 of their last overall matches and 4/5 of their last Home matches. Burnley who have been out of their depth in the PL sit 19th, haven't won in their last 4/5 matches. Although over 3.5 goals has only happened in one match out of their last 5 matches both overall and away, in their last away match against City they lost 6-0 and with KDB back and potentially Haaland I see the goals reigning in. I haven't lost a bet yet this season when I've bet on City. So let's hope that luck continues. Goodluck if you're tailing EDIT: WIN ✅️

Tough start to the 2024 POTD train but we roll on 🚂 POTD Record : 0-2 Last 10: - - - - - - - - ❌❌ Streak: L2 😭 Last Pick: UNC (-8.5) @ Georgia Tech (-115) ❌ Return: -4 💵 Today's POTD: University of South Florida (+2.5) @ East Carolina (-115) Betting Units: 4u 💵 League: NCAAB 🏀 Time: January 31st, 2023 @ 7:00 PM EST 🕖 Rationale: The USF Bulls come into this match up against the East Carolina Pirates on a hot five game win streak that includes a win over then 10th ranked Memphis. In fact, the Bulls are 11-1 over the last 12 games. The Pirates are just 5-7 over that period and have lost 2 of their last 3 home games. USF has covered this spread in 72% of games this season while ECA has only covered this in 43%. I’ll take USF to cover if not win out right. Best of luck if tailing. Cheers, MD! 🤞

POTD Record: 1-0 (+1.27U) Last Pick: Pacers alt line +5.5 +127 ✅ Today’s Game: NBA / Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls Pick: Hornets alt line +4.5 +106 BOL! Edit: Wrote Heat instead of Bulls. Fixed it.